AGF Management Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. The stock price is probably reasonable and may even be cheap. However, dividends have been going down as well as stock price. The stock price has picked up in 2019, but dividend increases are still non-existent. Personally, I cannot get excited by this company. See my spreadsheet on AGF Management Ltd.

I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF). I used to own this stock. I bought it in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.

According to my calculations when I sold this off, I had a total return of 2.08% per year with -0.01% from capital loss and 2.09% from dividends. If I had this stock still today, my capital loss would be 6.89% per year. Although my dividends would be at 6.54% per year.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they have been destroying shareholder value in this company for probably 10 years now.

The best that I can say about dividends is that the decreases in dividends seems to have stopped for now with the DPR at a reasonable level. Dividends were decreased by 70% in 2015 and have been flat since then. Dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend is 4.46%. The 5, 10 median dividends yields are in the good range (5% and above) at 6.17% and 6.61%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate at 3.47%. The 5 and 10 median dividend yields are higher because when the company started to have problems in 2008, yields increased a lot.

The Dividend Payout Ratios could be better especially for CF. The current DPR for EPS in 2019 is good at 53% and 5 year coverage at 55%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 are still too high at 56% and with 5 year coverage at 57%. I prefer this to be 40% or less. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 40% with 5 year coverage at 52%. The Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 2.51 (which is good) and the 5 year coverage is low at 1.91.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is good at 0.42. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.41. With Cash Flow after dividends, it becomes a better one at 1.78. The Debt Ratio is good at 3.03. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are good at 1.49 and 0.49, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-21.59%	-0.69%	-5.38%	4.69%
2009	10	-10.77%	-3.11%	-9.25%	6.14%
2004	15	-1.64%	-0.09%	-6.52%	6.43%
1999	20	3.86%	3.63%	-2.91%	6.54%
1994	25	5.70%	12.77%	3.40%	9.36%
1991	28	5.94%	17.26%	6.15%	11.10%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.49, 8.80 and 10.11. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.54, 12.56 and 15.58. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.21, 14.94 and 18.96. The current P/E Ratio is 12.80 based on a stock price of $7.17 and 2020 EPS estimate of $0.56. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $12.20. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.55, 0.72 and 0.88. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.59 based on a stock price of $7.17. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.84. The current P/B Ratio is 0.61 based on a Book Value of $925M, Book Value per Share of $11.81 and a stock price of $7.17. The current ratio is some 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.47%. The current dividend yield is 4.46% based on dividends of $0.32 and a stock price of $7.17. The current dividend yield is 29% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.61%. The current dividend yield is 4.46% based on dividends of $0.32 and a stock price of $7.17. The current dividend yield is 33% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.69. The current P/S Ratio is 1.35 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $417M, Revenue per Share of $5.32 and a stock price of $7.17. The current ratio is 20% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and might be cheap. It is interesting to note that the P/E Ratio of 12.80 is a reasonable one, but the P/GP Ratio of 0.59 and the P/B Ratio of 0.61 are extremely low ratios. When the P/GP Ratio or the P/B Ratio is below 1.00, stocks are generally thought of as cheap. With the extremely low P/B Ratio, where the stock is selling below the book value, signals a cheap stock, but stocks are usually at this position for a reason.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The second part can be answered immediately as this stock price is reasonable if not cheap. However, I would not consider buying this stock again. If I had kept it, I would have been losing money on this company since 2001 and would have lost 72.69% of my investment in a capital loss. The loss would have been at 6.89% per year. However, with dividends my capital loss would be down to 0.35% per year. This shows the value of having dividend paying stock, but do you really want to own a stock that only breaks even on a long term basis because of dividends?

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (5). The consensus would b a Buy. The 12 month stock price is 7.69. This implies a total return of $11.72% with 7.25% from capital gains and 4.46% from dividends based on a stock price of $7.17.

In 2018, the 12 month stock price consensus is $8.81 which implies a total return of 20.24% with 4.22% from dividends and 16.23% from capital gains based on a stock price of $7.58. What happened was that stock price end up at $5.38. So, the total return was a loss of 22.17% with a capital loss of 26.39% and 4.22% from dividends.

Last year the 12 month stock price consensus was $6.61. This implies a total return of 28.81% with 22.86% from capital gains and 5.95% from dividends based on a stock price $5.58. What happened was that the stock price has ended up at $7.17. So, the total return was 34.44% with 28.49% from capital gains and 5.95% from dividends. The stock price was up 33.6% in 2019 and up 11.3% so far this year.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. There is not much coverage and latest says Asset Management businesses are being killed. Nikhil Kumar on Motley Fool thinks it is cheap and a good time for buying it. A writer on Simply Wall Street says with a beta of 1.53 means the stock price will change at a higher level than the market in booms and busts.. A Writer on Simply Wall Street says the stocks intrinsic value is $6.23 CDN. An announcement on Global Newswire says the proposed merger of Smith & Williamson and Tilney Group has not been approved by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

AGF Management is a Canada-based asset manager with operations and investments in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Asia. AGF Management has a more meaningful portion of its business tied to institutional clients than its peers, with 34% of AUM derived from institutional and subadvised accounts. The company also derives 15% of its managed assets from high-net-worth clients. Its web site is here AGF Management Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... learn more on February 3, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Shaw Communications Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telecom. Price is probably reasonable. It may soon not be a dividend growth stock as they have not raised dividends in the past 3 years and current and estimate EPS do not suggest one anytime soon. See my spreadsheet on Shaw Communications Inc.

I do not own this stock of Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). I am following this stock because it was a stock on Investment Reporter’s list, an MPL Communications Publication.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the Liquidity Ratio for the first quarter was very low at just 0.56 because of the cash asset was down due to payment of long term debt. It will not much longer be considered to be a dividend growth stock as they have not raised the dividends now for 3 years.

Dividends have been in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges) since around 2006. Before that they were in the low range (Under 2%). The current 4.48%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 4.39%, 4.28% and 1.28%.

Basically, the dividend growth is low currently because dividends have been flat since 2016. However, the company does have a very mixed record on dividend increases. I have records going back to 1990 and there were only two increases before 2004 when dividends went up 220%. There were some other big increases after that until 2010 and then increases were low (under 8%) when dividend yields were in the top part of the moderate range.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently a bit high in same cases, but the dividends are still covered. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 84% with 5 year coverage at 78%. The DPR for EPS is expected to be 90% this year. This is high and until it gets lower, no dividend increases should be expected. The DPR for CFPS is 34% with 5 year coverage at 37%. These are good ratios and the one for 2020 is not expected to be any higher. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 93% with 5 year coverage at 83%. Dividend Coverage Ratio is 1.20. Analysts like this ratio to be 2.5 or higher.

Debt Ratios are mostly good, but the Liquidity Ratios is low. The Long Term Debt/Market cap is good at 0.31. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.78 with a 5 year median of 0.64. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is 1.12 with 5 year median at 1.10. These are too low. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.67 with 5 year median at 1.70. These ratios are fine. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are 2.49 and 1.49 with 5 year median at 2.63 and 1.63. These are fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	2.25%	0.60%	-3.42%	4.02%
2009	10	3.75%	6.42%	1.97%	4.44%
2004	15	19.69%	10.79%	6.02%	4.78%
1999	20	22.64%	7.05%	4.05%	3.00%
1994	25	18.37%	14.26%	10.52%	3.74%
1990	29	15.65%	14.64%	11.18%	3.46%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.09, 16.38 and 17.69. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.23, 15.96 and 17.69. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.09, 16.52 and 17.90. The current P/E Ratio is 2020 based on a stock price of $26.46 and 2020 EPS estimate of $1.31. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $18.48. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.21, 1.32 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.43 based on a stock price of $26.46. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.59. The current P/B Ratio is 2.28 based on a Book Value of $5,994M, Book Value per share of $11.58 and a stock price of $26.46. The current ratio is 12% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.28%. The current dividend yield is 4.48% based on dividends of $1.185 and a stock price of $26.46. The current yield is 250% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median dividend yield is 4.28%. The current dividend yield is 4.48% based on dividends of $1.185 and a stock price of $26.46. The current yield is 4.8% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.38. The current P/S Ratio is 2.50 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $5,486M, Revenue per Share of $16.60 and a stock price of $26.46. The current ratio is 4.8% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and it may be on the expensive side. Most of the testing is showing the stock price as reasonable and above or below the median. The historical median dividend yield test is not a good one as it seems at one time the company intentionally raised the yield with dividend increases. Problem is Sales per Share, EPS, and CF per Share is either up a bit or down a bit over the past 5 years.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably reasonable. However, it may not be considered a dividend growth company much longer because of the lack of recent dividend growth. I prefer dividend growth companies. So, I personally would not be interested in buying this company.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (5), Hold (5) and Sell (2). It used to be unusual to have Sell recommendations, but they have been coming up more frequently lately. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $29.00. This implies 14.08% with 9.60% from capital gains and 4.48% from capital gains.

Last year the 12 month stock price consensus was $30.03. This implies a total return of 15.10% with 4.37% from Dividends and 10.73% from capital gains based on a stock price of $27.12. However, what happened was that the stock price is lower than $27.12 at $26.46. What happened was a total return of 1.94% with a capital loss of 2.43% and dividends of 4.37%. I have a hard time believing this stock is going to very well in the short term.

See what analysts think on Stock Chase. They worry about this stock and all the other telecoms. Chen Liu on Motley Fool has a more positive view and thinks you should buy this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the company’s debt presents a risk. A writer on Simply Wall Street says earnings are growing. Yes, the EPS for 2019 is substantially higher than in 2018, but you have to go back to 2011 is get a lower EPS than in 2019. William White on Investor Place said that EPS for the first quarter of 2020 came in lower than expect, but stock has gone up .

Shaw Communications is a cable company in western Canada, serving as one of the biggest providers of Internet, television, and landline telephone services in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northern Ontario. Its web site is here Shaw Communications Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... learn more on January 31, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about I Buy and Hold Dead .... learn more on January 30, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Enghouse Systems Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Tech. Stock price is relatively expensive. The company has had a great year. Great debt ratios. This stock is on my list to buy in case of a bear market. See my spreadsheet on Enghouse Systems Ltd .

I do not own this stock of Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF). This stock has been recommended by Keystone Financial Publishing as a good Small Cap tech stock with dividend. It went public in 1995. It financial year end is October 31 each year.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the dividends increase for 2019 was very good at 22.2%. The stock price went up 45% in 2019 and is up 7.6% so far this year.

They started to pay dividends in 2008, 11 years ago. The dividend yields are low (under 2%) with the current yield at 0.85% and 5, 10 historical dividend yields at 0.98%, 1.12% and 1.24%. Dividend growth has been good (15% or higher). See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 31% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 18.5% with 5 year coverage at 17.4%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 was 27.6% with 5 year coverage at 22.7%. Dividend Coverage Ratio is 4.40.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.00 because long term debt is so low (i.e. too low to register). The Liquidity Ratio is fine at 1.53. The Debt Ratio is good at 3.13. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.47 and 0.47 for 2019.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	17.32%	19.38%	18.36%	1.02%
2009	10	21.95%	28.96%	27.48%	1.47%
2004	15	20.81%	17.88%	17.18%	0.69%
1999	20		18.75%	18.20%	0.54%
1995	24		16.15%	15.75%	0.40%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.42, 32.85 and 40.27. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 24.43, 28.44 and 32.09. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.25, 20.76 and 26.52. The current P/E Ratio is 39.26 based on a stock price of $51.82 and 2020 EPS estimate of $1.32. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $14.77. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.04, 2.37 and 2.70. The current P/GP Ratio is 3.51 based on a stock price of $51.82. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.46. The current P/B Ratio is 7.03 based on a stock price of $51.82., Book Value of $402M and Book Value per Share of $7.35. The current ratio is some 58% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.24%. The current dividend yield is 0.85% based on dividends of $0.44 and a stock price of $51.82. The current yield is 32% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median dividend yield is 1.12%. The current dividend yield is 0.85% based on dividends of $0.44 and a stock price of $51.82. The current yield is 24% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.26. The current P/S Ratio is 5.55 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $511M, Revenue per Share of $9.34 and a stock price of $51.82. The current ratio is 30% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively expensive. All the test that I have done show exactly the same thing.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I find this company quite interesting. It has done well for its shareholders. At the moment it is relatively expensive. I have this stock on my list of stocks to look at for buying purposes in case of a bear market. The current dividend yield is below 1% and I do not buy stocks with dividend yields currently lower than 1%.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $56.80. This implies a total return of 10.46% with 9.61% from capital gains and 0.85% from Dividends. I think that the target price undermines the Buy recommendation. On a high flying tech stock, you expect capital gains in one year to be much higher than 9.6%.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Analyst are impressed with this company. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this stock will continue in its winning ways this year. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about analysts upgrades for this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the company’s ROCE looks good. Martin Roberts on The Enterprise Leader talks about some insider selling and recent analysts’ reports..

Enghouse Systems Ltd is a Canada-based provider of software and services to a variety of end markets. The firm's operations are organized in two segments namely, the Interactive Management Group and the Asset Management Group. The firm has operations in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Sweden, Israel, Croatia, Denmark, Norway, India, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Australia etc. Its web site is here Enghouse Systems Ltd .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Sylogist Ltd (TSX-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) ... learn more on January 29, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write Banks and Other Things .... learn more on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Sylogist Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Tech. The stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. It is possibly relatively cheap. The Dividend Payout Ratios are high, but the Debt Ratios are very good. There is lots of insider selling at 10% of the outstanding shares. It has great debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Sylogist Ltd .

I do not own this stock of Sylogist Ltd (TSX-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF). I learned about this stock from the newsletter I subscribe to. The financial year ends at September 30 each year.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they did not do that well in 2019. Sales did not meet analyst’s expectations and were down slightly from 2018. EPS is down for 2019 as is the stock price. The stock price fell 21% in 2019 and is down another 10% so far this year. Note the financial year for this company is September 30 each year.

Also, in 2019 there was a lot of insider selling with Net Insider Selling at 10% of outstanding shares. The CEO was a heavy seller, selling 33% of his holdings. There was also a lot of stock options granted in 2019 at 7% of the outstanding shares. If course, people could be selling for a lot of reasons that have nothing to do with the company.

Dividends were started 9 years ago in 2010. Dividend yields have been moderate (2% range to 4% range) to good (5% or over). The current dividend yield is moderate at 4.43%. The 5, 9 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 3.01%, 3.02% and 3.02%. The dividend increases have varied a lot. The biggest increase was between in 2011 at 84%. The lowest one was in 2017 at 5.7%. In 2019 dividends were increased by 25%. There have been no increases since September 2019. Also, the company has paid special dividends in different years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are current fine if not a bit high. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was 88% with 5 year coverage at 87%. The DPR for EPS has been over 100% a number of times. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 50% with 5 year coverage at 58%. I get a DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 at 49% with 5 year coverage at 56%.

Debt Ratios are very good. There is no Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio as the company has no current long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio is 3.26 for 2019 and so very good. The Debt Ratio for 2019 at 3.97 is also very good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 at also very good at 1.24 and 0.24 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	13.43%	3.98%	0.37%	3.61%
2009	10	22.06%	31.33%	23.96%	7.37%
2004	15		22.77%	19.16%	3.61%
1999	20		7.38%	5.88%	1.50%
1998	21		1.82%	0.68%	1.15%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.94, 29.26 and 34.13. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.48, 26.46 and 33.77. The corresponding historical ratios are 4.47, 10.31 and 17.31. The historical ones are low because of negative earnings and therefore negative P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 20.27 based on 2020 EPS estimate of $0.45 and a stock price of $9.02. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $4.97. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.77, 2.50 and 3.01. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.81 based on a stock price of $9.02. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.15. The current P/B Ratio is 3.65 based on a Book Value of $48.5M, Book Value per Share of $2.47 and a stock price of $9.02. The current ratio is 12% below the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.02%. The current dividend yield is 4.43% based on dividends of $0.40 and a stock price of $9.02. The current dividend yield is 47% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Since the 9 year median is the same as the historical median, there would be no difference in the test outcome.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.45. The current P/S Ratio is 5.50 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $38.9M, Revenue per Share of $1.64 and a stock price of $9.02. The current ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively reasonable and below the median. The only test to say differently is the dividend yield test which says the stock is cheap. There is actually no reason to ignore this test. So, it is possible that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I find it an interesting company. It has certainly given back to the shareholders good dividends since dividends were started. It has a mixed record of return with those investing in 1998 earning little at a total return of $1.82%. The 5 year return is also low at 3.98%. However, 5 years ago the P/E Ratio was 69.07, a rather high ratio. The price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $14.80. This implies a total return of 68.51.% with 64.08% from capital gains and 4.43% from dividends based on a current stock price of $9.02.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Currently a couple of analysts think it is a weak buy. Mat Litalien on Motley Fool says it has had a disappointing year, but it is a good tech buy for income. A writer on Simply Wall Street says because the company is paying out more than half its earnings and this could lower future dividend growth if earnings slow down. A writer on Simply Wall Street is surprised that this small company has 41% institutional ownership. The company put out fourth quarterly results on Newswire.

Sylogist Ltd is a software company that provides Enterprise Resource Planning solutions, including fund accounting, grant management and payroll to public service organizations. The company operates in one business segment that is Public Sector. Geographically, the company offers its services to the United States of America and United Kingdom region. Its web site is here Sylogist Ltd .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TC.A, OTC-TCLAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more on Monday, January 27, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Transcontinental Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price is probably cheap to reasonable. A vulnerability is some of its Debt Ratios. Insiders are buying. They are trying to get into the packaging business. Dividend yield is good. See my spreadsheet on Transcontinental Inc .

I own this stock of Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF). This is a dividend growth stock. It was on a number of dividend lists. However, it fell on hard times after 2008, but currently seems to be recovering. It is was on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index when I bought it in 2015.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that 2019 was not a good year. Same as in 2018. However, I also noticed that in both years there was insider buying. This was true of the CEO and the other officer I was following. However, the CFO decreased his shares. For directors they kept theirs the same.

The dividend yields started off very low (below 1%) but have been increasing over time. The current dividend yield is good (5% or over) at 5.49%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.82% and 3.83%. The historical median is low (below 2%) at 1.31%. The dividend growth is currently low (under8%) at 6.84% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was lower at 4.8%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 46% with 5 year coverage at 31%. The DPR for CFPS is 16% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 25% with 5 year coverage at 26%. The FCF Dividend Coverage Ratio is 3.98 for 2019.

I have some issues with the Debt Ratios. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 1.05. This is due to both increase in debt and drop in stock price. It is, of course, too high. The Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is 0.87. However, if you add in intangibles, the Intangibles and Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is 1.39. This is too high. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.49 and if you added in cash flow after dividends it is 1.99. The Debt Ratio is 1.81 and is best of this company’s debt ratios. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 2.24 and 1.24 respectively are fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	6.84%	3.89%	-0.85%	4.74%
2009	10	10.52%	7.27%	2.08%	5.19%
2004	15	5.90%	0.45%	-2.53%	2.98%
1999	20	12.67%	5.88%	2.60%	3.28%
1994	25	11.29%	9.17%	5.67%	3.51%
1992	27	10.83%	8.03%	4.93%	3.10%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.03, 8.74 and 10.49. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.70, 8.59 and 9.96. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.61, 12.12 and 12.72. The current P/E Ratio is 8.:30 based on a stock price of $16.02 and 2020 EPS estimate of $1.93. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. However, the P/E Ratios are quite low. A P/E Ratio is a relatively cheap one.

I get a Graham Price of $23.93. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.57, 0.75 and 0.89. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.55 based on a stock price of $16.02. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 0.85 based on a Book Value of $1687M, Book Value per Share of $19.32 and a stock price of $16.02. The current ratio is 39% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. The current P/B Ratio is also below 1.00 which means the stock is sell below its theoretical break-up value.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.31%. The current dividend yield is 5.49% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $16.02. The current yield is 319% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median dividend yield is 3.83%. The current dividend yield is 5.49% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $16.02. The current yield is 43% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.56. The current P/S Ratio is 0.51 based on Revenue of $2,732, Revenue per Share of $31.28 and a stock price of $16.02. The current ratio is 8.6% below the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap to reasonable. A lot of the ratios are very low. The dividend yield test counts because they are paying out a reasonable amount of their EPS in dividends (46%). However, Sales talks about the future and this only shows the price as reasonable. Sales count a lot.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still think that the long term prospects of this company are good. However, I am not pleased with some of the debt ratios. The debt ratios are a risk. I think the stock price is reasonable. Not only does the Sales estimates talk to the future, so do dividend increases and the last increase was 4.8% which is lower than the 5 year increases of 6.8% per year.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (4), and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $20.44. This implies a total return of 33.08% with 5.49% from dividends and 27.39% from capital gains. This is from the site Market Screener with link. My TD WebBroker has started an Analysts section. For this stock they have Buy (3) and Hold (1) with a consensus of Buy. Their 12 month stock price consensus is $18.83. This implies a total return of 23.03% with 5.49% from dividends and $17.54% from capital gains.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Most talks about their pivot into packaging. Victoria Hetherington on Motley Fool thinks this is solid buy for the passive investor. A writer on Simply Wall Street says in October 2019 that the company was having a tough year. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the stock is good for an income portfolio. Marion Hillson on The Enterprise Leader says Colmark decreased their 2020 EPS from $2.21 to $2.17.

Transcontinental Inc known as TC Transcontinental, is a leader in flexible packaging in North America, and Canada's largest printer. The Corporation is also positioned as the leading Canadian French-language educational publishing group. Its web site is here Transcontinental Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Sylogist Ltd (TSX-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF) ... learn more on Friday, January, 24, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Banks and Ratios 2.... learn more on January, 23, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. The stock price is cheap to reasonable. I cover this bank because it is one of the big 5, but I do not intend to every own it. Yield is currently quite good at 5.30%. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce .

I do not own this stock of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM). This was the only Canadian Bank of the big 5 that I did not follow, so I thought I should start to follow it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed dividend increase for the 2019 financial year was at 5.26% which is lower than the 5 year average of 7.28% per year. However, the increase for the 2019 financial year (5.26%) is higher than that for the 2018 financial year I4.72%). Also, the total return per year over the past 5 years is low at 6.42% with 1.59% from capital gains and 4.83% from dividends. Most of the return is in dividends.

The dividend yield for this stock is currently in the good range (5% or higher), but has spent most of the time in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 5%, 4.79% and 4.38%. The dividend growth has recently been low (below 8%) but it has been higher and similar in the past. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was 50% with 5 year coverage at 47%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 43% with 5 year coverage at 44%. I like to see this last one at 40% or less. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 was 29% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The FCF Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 was 3.48.

Debt Ratios are fine. For banks, I look at the Debt/Covering Assets Ratio which for 2019 was 0.90. The Liquidity Ratio is not important for banks. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.06 and this is fine for banks. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 were at 18.32 and 17.23 respectively. These are fine for banks but might be a little on the high side.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	7.28%	6.42%	1.59%	4.83%
2009	10	4.87%	9.80%	4.72%	5.08%
2004	15	6.43%	12.42%	6.46%	5.95%
1999	20	8.01%	11.01%	5.87%	5.13%
1994	25	8.93%	13.57%	7.69%	5.88%
1989	30	7.61%	12.44%	7.23%	5.21%
1987	32	7.40%	12.07%	7.05%	5.02%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.79, 9.04 and 10.66. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.14, 9.98 and 10.73. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.34, 9.73 and 11.00. The current P/E Ratio is 9.20 based on a stock price of $108.60 and 2020 EPS estimate of $11.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median if judged by the 10 year ratios.

I get a Graham Price of $146.82. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.84, 0.92 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.74 based on a current stock price of $108.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.92. The current P/B Ratio is 1.34 based on a stock price of $108.60, Book Value of $35,569M and a Book Value per Share of $79.87. The current ratio is 29% below the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.38%. The current dividend yield is 5.30% based on dividends of $5.76 and a stock price of $108.60. The current yield is 21% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.79%. The current dividend yield is 5.30% based on dividends of $5.76 and a stock price of $108.60. The current yield is 10.6% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.52. The current P/S Ratio is 2.51 based on 2020 Revenue estimates of $19,247M, Revenue per Share of $43.22 and a stock price of $108.60. The current ratio is 0.5% below the 10 year P/S Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. The P/S Ratio testing is showing that the stock price is very close to the median. The dividend yield test is always interesting because dividend increases show how the company’s executive feel about the future. Dividend increase in the 2019 financial year was higher than in the 2018 financial year. The historical dividend yield test says that the stock price is cheap. The 10 year median dividend yield test says that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think it is a dividend growth stock and dividend growth stocks are good ones for anyone portfolio. This is not my favourite bank, but I think that it is selling at a reasonable price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), Hold (13), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold and most analysts seem to be there. The 12 month stock price consensus is $112.88. This implies a total return of 9.24% with 5.30% from dividends and 3.94% from capital gains.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. This bank does not excite anyone. Victoria Hetherington on Motley Fool thinks there are reasons to pause rather than purchase this bank. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the Intrinsic Value of this stock is $156.21 CDN, but is worried about growth. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this banks is a stable dividend paying, but it is unexciting.. Christopher Mengel on Modern Reader says this bank earns a negative media score by InfoTrie Sentiment Analysis.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is Canada's fifth- largest bank, operating three business segments: retail and business banking, wealth management, and capital markets. It serves approximately 11 million personal banking and business customers, primarily in Canada. Its web site is here Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce .

The last stock I wrote about was about was National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TC.A, OTC-TCLAF) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 22, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Banks and Ratios.... learn more on Tuesday, January 21, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

National Bank of Canada

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. The stock price is reasonable, but on the high side. This bank has done well for its shareholders in the past. A positive is the increase in dividend growth over the past two years. See my spreadsheet on National Bank of Canada .

I do not own this stock of National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF). I thought I should follow one of the smaller Canadian Banks. This seems like a good choice.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the most recent increases in dividends are higher than in the recent past. The 5 and 10 year dividend increases are 7.65% per year and 6.91% per year. In 2019 the dividends increased by 8.33% and in 2020 financial year so far by 8.08%.

Dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend is 3.87%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 4.17%, 4.12%, and 3.95%. The current dividend increases are low (under 8%). However, these have varied in the past. See the chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 41% with 5 year coverage at 45%. The DPR for CFPS is 35% with 5 year coverage at 39%. According to figures from the Morningstar the DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 33% with 5 year coverage at 18%. I have noticed that FCF can vary by which site I get information from.

Debt Ratios are fine. Since this is a bank, I do not look at the Debt/Market Cap Ratio for at the Debt/Covering Assets Ratio. For this bank that ratio is 0.80. This is a good ratio. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 1.06. Any ratio at or over 1.04 is considered fine for a bank. The Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are 18.60 and 17.60. These are normal for a bank.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	7.65%	10.62%	7.83%	2.79%
2009	10	6.91%	12.72%	9.12%	3.61%
2004	15	10.59%	10.80%	7.38%	3.42%
1999	20	10.60%	15.29%	10.81%	4.47%
1994	25	10.45%	16.25%	11.49%	4.75%
1989	30	7.06%	12.13%	8.56%	3.57%
1986	33	7.39%	10.25%	7.23%	3.02%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.04, 10.51, and 11.64. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.15, 10.39 and 11.47. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.67, 9.82 and 11.64. The current P/E Ratio is 11.06 based on a stock price of $72.31 and EPS estimate for 2020 of 6.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $72.67. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are0.77, 0.88 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.01 based on a stock price of $72.31. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.76. The current P/B Ratio is 2.07 based on a Book Value of $11,829, Book Value per Share of $35.40 and a stock price of $72.31. The current P/B Ratio is 18% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.95%. The current dividend yield is 3.87% based on dividends of $2.84 and a stock price of $72.31. The current yield is 2% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median dividend yield is 4.12%. The current dividend yield at 3.87% is some 7% below this. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.78. The current P/S Ratio is 3.07 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $7,981M, Revenue per Share of $23.88 and a stock price of $72.31. The current ratio is 10% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable to expensive. All the testing is show that the stock price is reasonable but above the median or expensive. I see no problems with any of the tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a dividend growth stock and it has done well for its shareholders in the past and will probably be a good stock going forward. The stock price is a bit high at the present time but it is still within a reasonable range.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), Hold (9), Underperform (2), Sell (1) and No Opinion (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $71.96. This implies a total return of 2.03% with a capital loss of 1.84% and dividends of 3.87%.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They generally like this bank. One says it has a profitable niche in Quebec. Matt Smith on Motley Fool says this is the only bank to beat the market in 2019 and is poised for strong growth in 2020. A writer on Simply Wall Street says positive things, but would like it better if there were more insider buying. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this is a good dividend paying stock. Maria Luz-Campos on Riverton Roll talks about recent analysts’ recommendations on this stock.

National Bank of Canada is the sixth- largest Canadian bank. The bank offers integrated financial services, primarily in the province of Quebec as well as the city of Toronto. Operational segments include personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and a financial markets group. Its web site is here National Bank of Canada.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM) ... learn more on Monday, January 20, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Bank of Nova Scotia

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. The stock price is probably cheap to reasonable. The bank has been slowing down in terms of dividend growth. The DPR for CFPS is not what I like to see. See my spreadsheet on Bank of Nova Scotia .

I do not own this stock of Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS), but my son does. This is one of the big banks of Canada. All our big banks are dividend growth companies. Next week, after reporting on CIBC, I will put together some tables comparing all the banks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed lately the bank has not done lately as well as it has in the past. Total Return is under 8% per year over the past 5 years and dividend increases have slowed over the past 5 and 10 years.

The dividend yields have been in the moderate range (under5%) until recently as it has hit 5% a number of times in the last few years. The current dividend yield is just into the moderate range (below 5%) at 4.98%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 4.49%, 4.15% and 4.12%. The dividend increases are in the low range (under8%) per year over the past 5 and 10 years. They were higher in the past and in the moderate range. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are probably fine, but not being able to calculate the 5 year coverage for CFPS is troubling. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 52% with 5 year coverage at 49%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 46%. The 5 year coverage cannot be calculated due to negative Cash Flows. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 288% with 5 year coverage at 46%. However, as I have noted before, FCF is different depends on what sites you look at.

Debt Ratios are fine. Since this is a bank, you do not look at a Debt/Market Cap Ratio, but coverage of long term liabilities by assets. The Debt/Coverage Asset Ratio is fine at 0.95. Liquidity Ratios are not important for banks. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.07 and this is fine for a bank. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are 15.47 and 14.47 respectively and are normal for a bank.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	6.39%	6.48%	2.04%	4.44%
2009	10	5.94%	8.48%	4.07%	4.41%
2004	15	8.00%	8.16%	4.00%	4.15%
1999	20	10.97%	13.26%	8.07%	5.19%
1994	25	10.46%	15.88%	10.05%	5.82%
1989	30	9.65%	15.88%	10.13%	5.76%
1985	34	9.29%	14.29%	9.30%	4.98%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.01, 10.77 and 12.50. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.22, 11.30 and 12.51. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.29, 11.23 and 13.11. The current P/E Ratio is 9.72 based on an EPS estimate for 2020 of $7.44 and current stock price of $72.29. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $94.73. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.83, 0.90 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.76 based on a stock price of $72.29. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.79. The current P/B Ratio is 1.35 based on a Book Value of $65,198M, Book Value per Share of $53.61 and a stock price of $72.29. The current ratio is 25% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.12%. The current dividend yield is 4.98% based on dividends of $3.60 and a stock price of $72.29. The current dividend yield is 21% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.15%. With the current dividend yield at 4.98%, the current yield is 20% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.29. The current P/S Ratio is 2.71 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $32,436M, Revenue per Share of $26.67 and a stock price of $72.29. The current P/S ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. It is only the P/S Ratio test that is not showing the stock as cheap but 18% is close to cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that all the Canadian Banks are good dividend growth stocks. This stock is selling currently at a reasonable price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (3), Hold (9) and Sell (1). The consensus would a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $77.73. This implies a total return of 12.51% with 7.53% from capital gains and 4.98% from dividends

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Several talk about this high dividend yield. Kay Ng on Motley Fool also talk about its juicy dividend. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this bank is selling at a fair price. A writer on Simply Wall Street says there are potentially better dividend paying stocks than this one. Adam Othman on Motley Fool talks about why this bank is the best to buy in 2020. Rob Hiaasen on Riverton Roll thinks that BNS is a better bank to buy than Atlantic Capital Bancshares (NASDAQ-ACBI) and explains why.

Bank of Nova Scotia is known as Canada's "international bank" and is a global financial services provider. The bank has three business segments: Canadian banking, international banking, and global banking and markets. It is the third-largest bank in Canada. The bank's international operations span numerous countries and are more concentrated in Central and South America. Its web site is here Bank of Nova Scotia.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF) ... learn more on Friday, January 17, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Credit Cycles.... learn more on Thursday, January 16, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Toronto Dominion Bank

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. The current stock price would seem to be reasonable. I think that any Canadian who owns stock should have at least one Canadian Bank and this has been a good one. See my spreadsheet on Toronto Dominion Bank.

I own this stock of Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD). I bought stock in this bank in 2000 and 2009. I sold some in 2017 as I had a too high a percentage of this stock in my portfolio. (That was because I bought some in a bear market and I had a great capital gain because of that.) I have made a total return of 13.40% with 9.55% from capital gains and 3.85% from dividends. For the stock I bought in 2000, I am making a yield of 16.48% on my original investment. For the stock I bought in 2009, I am making 12.41% on my original investment.

If you had bought 1220 shares for $1,000.40 in 1976, some 42 years ago, they would now be worth $88,852.60 and you would have received $37.674.52 in dividends to date.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that TD Bank has done quite well for their shareholders over a long period of time. Total Returns are slowing down for this bank. However, I have noticed the same trend with Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY) and Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO).

The dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend yield is 4.05%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 3.75%, 3.62% and 3.50%. The dividend increases are also moderate (8% to 14% ranges). See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for 2019 for EPS is 46% with 5 year coverage at 45%. The DPR for CFPS is 36% with 5 year coverage at 29%. I am going to skip the Free Cash Flow ratio testing as there seems to be big differences in what different sites are reporting in FCF. Wall Street Journal says the FCF for 019 if 117,643M and Market Watch is a negative $394M. Since I started to look at FCF I have found that sites can vary greatly on what they say it is.

Debt Ratios are fine. Because this is a bank, we need to look at asset coverage of the Long Term Debt. The Debt/Covering Asset Ratio for 2019 is 0.88 and this is fine. The Debt Ratio is 1.07 for 2019 and this is fine for a bank. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 16.14 and 15.14 for 2019 are rather normal for a bank.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 44 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	9.45%	9.43%	5.58%	3.84%
2009	10	9.01%	12.20%	8.24%	3.96%
2004	15	10.13%	11.08%	7.40%	3.68%
1999	20	10.98%	10.07%	6.84%	3.23%
1994	25	11.50%	15.83%	11.04%	4.79%
1989	30	9.75%	12.89%	9.25%	3.64%
1984	35	10.24%	14.71%	10.38%	4.33%
1979	40	10.69%	16.72%	11.29%	5.44%
1975	44	11.01%	15.44%	10.80%	4.64%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.86, 12.10 and 13.26. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.20, 12.32 and 13.41. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.42, 11.47 and 13.84. The current P/E Ratio is 10.90 based on a stock price of $73.00 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $6.70. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $82.53. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 0.96 and 1.05. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.88 based on a stock price of $73.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.61. The current P/B Ratio is 1.62 based on a Book Value of $87,701M, Book Value per Share of $45.19 and a stock price of $73.00. The current ratio is 0.2% higher than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.50%. The current dividend yield is 4.05% based on dividends of $2.96 and a stock price of $73.00. The current yield is 16% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.62%. With a current yield of 4.05%, the current yield is some 12% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.16. The current P/S Ratio is 3.29 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $40,248M, Revenue per Share of $22.21 and a stock price of $73.00. The current P/S Ratio is 4% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Testing is showing the stock price from cheap to reasonable, but above the median. However, the only test to show the stock price as cheap is the P/E Ratio which is not a reliable test in my mind.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think this is a great bank to own. I plan to hold on to the shares that I currently have. The stock price seems to be around a reasonable price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (5), Hold (6) and Sell (1). The consensus is a Buy. It is unusual to see a Sell recommendation. The 12 month stock price if $79.13. This implies a total return 12.45% with 8.40% from capital gains and 4.05% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Some like it and others think that growth will slow in the future. Simon Wong on Motley Fool thinks this is a great stock for your TFSA and buying using dollar-cost averaging A writer on Simply Wall Street says institutions own 53% of the outstanding shares. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks that this stock is fairly valued. Nichola Saminather on Financial Post says TD may do more restructuring in 2020.

Toronto-Dominion is one of Canada's two largest banks and operates three business segments: Canadian retail banking, U.S. retail banking, and wholesale banking. The bank's U.S. operations span from Maine to Florida, with a strong presence in the Northeast. Its web site is here Toronto Dominion Bank .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Calian Group Ltd (TSX-CGY, OTC-CLNFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 15, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Brookfield Infrastructure Partners.... learn more on Tuesday, January 14, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.