Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably stock price is fair. My some measure, like the Graham Price when the P/GP Ratio is 1.31 shows a rather high stock price. However, other testing shows the price to be rather low. For example see my report concerning the P/B Ratio testing. See my spreadsheet on Mullen Group Ltd.
I own this stock of Mullen Group Ltd. (TSX-MTL, OTC- MLLGF). I like to look at recommended small cap dividend paying stock to see if they would be a possible good investment now or in the future. The other thing to mention about this stock is that it recently converted from an income trust and has decreased it dividends. The reduction in dividend brought the Dividend Payout Ratios down to a place that would allow for the company to begin growing again.
I sold a stock called Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF) to buy Mullen. I explained my decision in a blog entry called Ensign and Mullen.
They have, unfortunately, fooled around with dividend payments. Before they became an income trust in 2005, they were paying dividends twice a year. As an Income Trust they paid dividends every month. When they changed to a corporation in 2009 they started to pay dividends quarterly. In 2013 they again switched dividends to monthly.
They cut the dividends in 2009 when they changed to a corporation. They started to again raise the dividends in 2011. However, this company services the oil and gain industry and unfortunately by 2011 they could no longer sustain the dividends they were paying. In 2016 they reduced the dividends by some 20%. Analysts seem to feel that starting in 2017 the company can again afford the dividends it is paying. I was hardly surprised by the dividend cuts considering the problems with the oil and gas industries.
A plus for this company is the strong balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.13. The Liquidity Ratio has always been good. The Debt Ratio at 1.80 in 2015 is lower than it has been but this is still a very good ratio. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high but still fine at 2.25 and 1.25 for 2015.
A bit of a negative is the increase in outstanding shares which have increased by 3.1% and 6.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. Actually increasing shares is not a bad thing in itself, but the thing is that per share values become the important ones.
You can see the results of increased shares when you look at Revenue and Revenue per Shares. The Revenue has increased by 3.2% and 9.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share has increase by 0.1% and 2.5% per year over the same time frame.
I get 5 year Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 12.75, 15.80 and 18.85. The corresponding 10 years ratios are close at 12.04, 14.18 and 17.11. The historical median P/E Ratio is 14.90 and this is between the 5 and 10 year ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 24.00 based on a stock price of $14.16 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.59. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find only Buy and Hold recommendations for this stock. There are more Hold recommendations than Buy recommendations and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $16.12. This implies a total return of 20.62% with 6.78% from dividends and 13.84% from capital gains.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.80. The current P/B Ratio is 1.61 a value some 10.5% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
It is also interesting that this stock has an historical median dividend yield of 4.22%. The current dividend yield is 6.78%, a value some 60% higher. This testing also suggests that the stock price is good and certainly below the median.
Karen Thomas of Motley Fool talks about why you should own this stock. Samantha Reynolds at Financial Market News talks about some recent analysts' recommendations on this stock. There is an article in the Canadian Business magazine about this company cutting their capital spending and dividends because of hardship in the oil patch. On Market Wired, Mullen Group Ltd announce their business plan and dividend for 2016.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see these reports here and here
On Friday, February 26, 2016 I wrote about ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF)... learn more. On my other blog I will write about my Portfolio and SPY ... learn more on March 1, 2016. The next stock I will write about will be Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC- HMCBF)... learn more on Wednesday, March 2, 2016.
Mullen Group Ltd. is a corporation that owns a network of independently operated businesses. Mullen is recognized as the largest provider of specialized transportation and related services to the oil and natural gas industry in Western Canada and is one of the leading suppliers of trucking and logistics services in Canada - two sectors of the economy in which Mullen has strong business relationships and industry leadership. Its web site is here Mullen Group Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, February 29, 2016
Friday, February 26, 2016
ARC Resources Ltd.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Obviously a risky buy. The company seems to be handling the current oil price crisis well. Personally, I do not have much invested in resources because they have historically been quite volatile and not great for long term investment. Insider buying is a plus. See my spreadsheet on ARC Resources Ltd.
I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.
The first thing I noticed for this company is the amount of insider buying. Insider buying is at 0.07% of market cap. This is relatively high.
This company cut their dividends by around 60% in 2009 and they have been flat until now. Currently the company cannot afford to pay their current dividend. They could just cover the dividends with earnings in 2014. Lots of analysts feel that the dividend is at risk of another cut and the company has just announced a 50% cut in dividends effective from the March 2016 dividend payment. It is expected that the company can cover their new dividend starting in 2018.
The coverage of dividends by cash flow is better. The Dividend Payout Ratio for CFPS was 69% in 2015. It is expected to decrease this year to 44% with the cut in dividends. The 5 year median DPR for CFPS is 43%.
Last year was not a good year for this company. Revenues, earnings and cash flow all dropped. Revenue in 2015 was down by 43%, earnings by 184% to a negative amount and cash flow down by 46%. This year, 2016, is expected to be better than last year.
Considering this is company is in the oil and gas industry, shareholders have not done that badly. The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at a loss of 1.46% and a gain of 5.18% per year. The capital losses are at 6.44% and 2.12% per year. Dividends are at 4.98% and 7.30% per year. With the dividend cuts, dividend yield has decline from 6.7% to 3.3%.
The Liquidity Ratio on this stock is very good currently at 2.04. It is much higher than it usually is. The 5 year median value is just 0.75. The Debt Ratio has always been good and the one for 2015 was 2.33. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios has also always been quite good and the ones for 2015 are 1.75 and 0.75.
Since the P/E Ratios are very high currently, we cannot do any analysis of a stock price based on this criterion. There is also a problem with the Graham Price because lack of or very low EPS. There is also a problem using the dividend yield because of the recent dividend cut.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.31. The current P/B Ratio is 1.84 based on BVPS of $9.76 and a stock price of $17.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap as the current P/B Ratio is some 20.1% lower than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This may be the best test as it is not based on estimates. However a problem is that the Book Value is treading down on this stock. It is down by 12% in 2015.
The 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 8.00. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.37 and some 17.2% higher. The P/CF Ratio is based on a CFPS estimate for 2016 of $1.92 and a stock price of $17.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is still reasonable but above the median.
The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 4.56. The current P/S Ratio is 4.84 based on 2016 Revenue estimate of $1,289M. This stock price testing also suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The vast majority of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $21.31. This implies a total return of 21.79% with 18.45% from capital gain and 3.34% from dividends. Of course no one really knows how the price of oil is going to go in the next while. There is not going to be a run up in the price, but there is the possibility that the price could moderate.
An article in the Calgary Herald by Dan Healing talks about investors biding up the stock price despite the dividend cut. However, the dividend cut was the right thing for this company to do. There is an interesting analysis of this company by the Investment Doctor at Seeking Alpha. An article on The Vista Voice talks about analysts giving this company a Buy recommendation.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here .
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Stocks Stocks for the Long Run Part 2 . The next stock I will write about will be Mullen Group Ltd. (TSX-MTL, OTC- MLLGF)... learn more on Monday, February 29, 2016.
ARC Resources Ltd. is one of Canada's leading conventional oil and gas companies. Its focus is on acquiring and developing long-life oil and gas properties across western Canada. Industry: Oil and Gas (Oil and Gas Producers). Its web site is here ARC Resources Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.
The first thing I noticed for this company is the amount of insider buying. Insider buying is at 0.07% of market cap. This is relatively high.
This company cut their dividends by around 60% in 2009 and they have been flat until now. Currently the company cannot afford to pay their current dividend. They could just cover the dividends with earnings in 2014. Lots of analysts feel that the dividend is at risk of another cut and the company has just announced a 50% cut in dividends effective from the March 2016 dividend payment. It is expected that the company can cover their new dividend starting in 2018.
The coverage of dividends by cash flow is better. The Dividend Payout Ratio for CFPS was 69% in 2015. It is expected to decrease this year to 44% with the cut in dividends. The 5 year median DPR for CFPS is 43%.
Last year was not a good year for this company. Revenues, earnings and cash flow all dropped. Revenue in 2015 was down by 43%, earnings by 184% to a negative amount and cash flow down by 46%. This year, 2016, is expected to be better than last year.
Considering this is company is in the oil and gas industry, shareholders have not done that badly. The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at a loss of 1.46% and a gain of 5.18% per year. The capital losses are at 6.44% and 2.12% per year. Dividends are at 4.98% and 7.30% per year. With the dividend cuts, dividend yield has decline from 6.7% to 3.3%.
The Liquidity Ratio on this stock is very good currently at 2.04. It is much higher than it usually is. The 5 year median value is just 0.75. The Debt Ratio has always been good and the one for 2015 was 2.33. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios has also always been quite good and the ones for 2015 are 1.75 and 0.75.
Since the P/E Ratios are very high currently, we cannot do any analysis of a stock price based on this criterion. There is also a problem with the Graham Price because lack of or very low EPS. There is also a problem using the dividend yield because of the recent dividend cut.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.31. The current P/B Ratio is 1.84 based on BVPS of $9.76 and a stock price of $17.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap as the current P/B Ratio is some 20.1% lower than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This may be the best test as it is not based on estimates. However a problem is that the Book Value is treading down on this stock. It is down by 12% in 2015.
The 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 8.00. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.37 and some 17.2% higher. The P/CF Ratio is based on a CFPS estimate for 2016 of $1.92 and a stock price of $17.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is still reasonable but above the median.
The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 4.56. The current P/S Ratio is 4.84 based on 2016 Revenue estimate of $1,289M. This stock price testing also suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The vast majority of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $21.31. This implies a total return of 21.79% with 18.45% from capital gain and 3.34% from dividends. Of course no one really knows how the price of oil is going to go in the next while. There is not going to be a run up in the price, but there is the possibility that the price could moderate.
An article in the Calgary Herald by Dan Healing talks about investors biding up the stock price despite the dividend cut. However, the dividend cut was the right thing for this company to do. There is an interesting analysis of this company by the Investment Doctor at Seeking Alpha. An article on The Vista Voice talks about analysts giving this company a Buy recommendation.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here .
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Stocks Stocks for the Long Run Part 2 . The next stock I will write about will be Mullen Group Ltd. (TSX-MTL, OTC- MLLGF)... learn more on Monday, February 29, 2016.
ARC Resources Ltd. is one of Canada's leading conventional oil and gas companies. Its focus is on acquiring and developing long-life oil and gas properties across western Canada. Industry: Oil and Gas (Oil and Gas Producers). Its web site is here ARC Resources Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Bombardier Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably a hold or sell. I will hold my shares for a while longer. I have had this stock for quite some time. I hope the company will survive, but this is not a certainty. See my spreadsheet on Bombardier Inc.
I own this stock of Bombardier Inc. (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF). The buying of this stock was part of my early foray into industrial stocks in 1987. Up until 2001, I was making some 35% return per annum on this stock. When the stock first dropped in 2002, I had still made some 28% return per annum on this stock. Even by the lowest point in 2005, I had made some 13% per annum on this stock. By that time, it seemed to be turning itself around, so I never sold. This is probably one of my failures in stock investing.
Currently I have earned $0.38 capital gain per share and $1.91 dividends per share for a total of $2.30 per share. Dividends have been paid on and off on this stock. Dividends were last cut in 2014. Even if the stock value goes to zero, I would have made to date a total return of 8.03% per year.
Shares have increased by 5.2% and 2.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. I am sure that if the Federal Government also comes to the rescue there will be a price to be paid for it. This company has always been very good at extracting money from governments.
Certainly the company is not doing well. Revenue, earnings and cash flow are all down in 2015. Revenue is down by 5.1%, earnings are down by 249% and cash flow is down by 98%. These are all in US$ as this is the reporting currency.
Debt ratios are not good. The Liquidity Ratio is quite low at 1.02. The Debt Ratio is 0.85. That means that the assets cannot cover the liabilities so there is a negative book value. This is never a good sign.
An interest item is that the cash on hand is higher than the stock price. Current stock price is $1.14 and cash on hand is $1.70 per share. However, the company is going through cash quite quickly, so this can only be a short term positive.
It is difficult to say what the stock price should be and therefore if it is a buy or what. The Price/Earnings per Share is negative. I cannot calculate a Graham Price as the Book Value is negative. Currently the Price/Book Value per Share is negative as the Book Value is negative. The stock has not dividends.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales Ratio of 0.42, a low value. The current P/S Ratio is 0.11, so this would point to a good current stock price. I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.24 and the current P/CF Ratio at 5.47 is some 18% lower. This also suggests a good current stock price.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $1.05. This implies a total return of a capital loss of 7.85%. The high, low and mean targets are $1.65, $1.05 and $0.55. I am surprised there are no sell recommendations.
Not everyone is pleased with the Quebec government giving money to Bombardier. See the recent article by James Mennie of the Montreal Gazette. There is an interesting article about Bombardier by Alessandro Bruno in the Profit Confidential. There are a number of comments from analysts at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those blog entries here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Dividend Cuts and the effect on my portfolio... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF)... learn more on Friday, February 26, 2016.
Bombardier is a world-leading manufacturer of innovative transportation solutions, from commercial aircraft and business jets to rail transportation equipment, systems and services. Headquartered in Montreal, Canada, Bombardier has a presence in more than 60 countries. Its web site is here Bombardier Inc..
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Bombardier Inc. (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF). The buying of this stock was part of my early foray into industrial stocks in 1987. Up until 2001, I was making some 35% return per annum on this stock. When the stock first dropped in 2002, I had still made some 28% return per annum on this stock. Even by the lowest point in 2005, I had made some 13% per annum on this stock. By that time, it seemed to be turning itself around, so I never sold. This is probably one of my failures in stock investing.
Currently I have earned $0.38 capital gain per share and $1.91 dividends per share for a total of $2.30 per share. Dividends have been paid on and off on this stock. Dividends were last cut in 2014. Even if the stock value goes to zero, I would have made to date a total return of 8.03% per year.
Shares have increased by 5.2% and 2.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. I am sure that if the Federal Government also comes to the rescue there will be a price to be paid for it. This company has always been very good at extracting money from governments.
Certainly the company is not doing well. Revenue, earnings and cash flow are all down in 2015. Revenue is down by 5.1%, earnings are down by 249% and cash flow is down by 98%. These are all in US$ as this is the reporting currency.
Debt ratios are not good. The Liquidity Ratio is quite low at 1.02. The Debt Ratio is 0.85. That means that the assets cannot cover the liabilities so there is a negative book value. This is never a good sign.
An interest item is that the cash on hand is higher than the stock price. Current stock price is $1.14 and cash on hand is $1.70 per share. However, the company is going through cash quite quickly, so this can only be a short term positive.
It is difficult to say what the stock price should be and therefore if it is a buy or what. The Price/Earnings per Share is negative. I cannot calculate a Graham Price as the Book Value is negative. Currently the Price/Book Value per Share is negative as the Book Value is negative. The stock has not dividends.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales Ratio of 0.42, a low value. The current P/S Ratio is 0.11, so this would point to a good current stock price. I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.24 and the current P/CF Ratio at 5.47 is some 18% lower. This also suggests a good current stock price.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $1.05. This implies a total return of a capital loss of 7.85%. The high, low and mean targets are $1.65, $1.05 and $0.55. I am surprised there are no sell recommendations.
Not everyone is pleased with the Quebec government giving money to Bombardier. See the recent article by James Mennie of the Montreal Gazette. There is an interesting article about Bombardier by Alessandro Bruno in the Profit Confidential. There are a number of comments from analysts at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those blog entries here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Dividend Cuts and the effect on my portfolio... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF)... learn more on Friday, February 26, 2016.
Bombardier is a world-leading manufacturer of innovative transportation solutions, from commercial aircraft and business jets to rail transportation equipment, systems and services. Headquartered in Montreal, Canada, Bombardier has a presence in more than 60 countries. Its web site is here Bombardier Inc..
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, February 22, 2016
Goodfellow Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Could be cheap. On most testing this stock seems rather cheap. Since it is a small cap that is little traded this could explain why it is mostly cheap. It is certainly not an expensive stock. See my spreadsheet on Goodfellow Inc.
I own this stock of Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF). I started to look at this stock when I was searching for small cap stocks that paid dividends. It looked like an interesting stock. Goodfellow is a small cap stock that the Investor Reporter has written about a number of times.
This company is the type that twice annually declares dividends that they believe that they can afford to pay. So dividends go up and down depending on how well the company is or is not doing.
So how well has this company done in giving out dividends? First dividend yields are moderate. The current dividend yield is 3.41% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 3.74% and the historical median dividend 3.79%. There has not been any increase in dividends if you look at growth over the past 5 and 10 years. In fact dividends have been on the decline since 2010. Dividend growth is a negative 10% and 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
If you had bought this stock exactly 5, 10 or 15 years ago, 17.8%, 39% and 147% of your original cost would be covered by dividends. If you had bought this stock exactly 5, 10 and 15 years ago, you would be earning 3.3% 2.8% and 7.5% on your original cost. The reason we have such a poor showing for after 10 years is because 10 years ago, the stock price was relatively quite high.
For this company it has been a long slow recovery from its top in 2010. However, revenue, earnings and cash flow have increased over the past couple of years. For example revenue is up by 3.5% and 7.8% for the past two years. EPS has been increasing since the low of 2011 and has increased by 32% and 23% for the past two years.
Shareholders have not done badly over the past 5 years with a total return of 9.94% per year with 4.75% per year from dividends and 5.19% per year from capital gains. The 10 years total return is a negative 2.59% per year with 3.13% per year from dividends and capital loss of 5.72% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.03, 14.68 and 15.32. The 10 years corresponding ratios are lower at 8.78, 11.23 and 13.20. This historical median P/E Ratio at 8.69 is even lower. The current P/E Ratio is 10.15 based on a stock price of $10.25 and last 12 months EPS of $1.01. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. However, the stock price is below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $18.50. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.54, 0.63 and 0.70. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.55. This stock seems to generally trade below the Graham Price. The stock price testing suggests again that the stock price is cheap to reasonable and below the median.
A reason that this stock has been quoted as cheap is because it trades below its Book Value per Share. The BVPS is current at $15.06 and the stock price is $10.25. The current P/B Ratio is 0.68. However, this is not much below the 10 years median P/B Ratio of 0.70. The stock price testing suggests again that the stock price is cheap to reasonable and below the median.
The only suggestion that this stock may not been as cheap as it appears is using the dividend yield. The current dividend yield is 3.41% and the historical median dividend yield is higher at 3.79%. What you want is a stock trading at a dividend yield higher than the historical median yield. However, the current yield is not that much lower than the historical at some 9.9% lower.
Because this is a small cap stock with little volume there are no analyst seems to be following this stock.
There is a news item on Benzinga about Goodfellow acquiring Quality Hardwoods Ltd. located in Powassan, Ontario. There is a news item on Stock House about Goodfellow reporting its annual result for November 2015. There is an interesting article by Robert Tattersall in the Globe and Mail about stocks trading below their book value. This stock is included.
The last time Investment Reporter talked about this stock in December 2015 they said Goodfellow Inc. remains buys for price gains and dividends.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On last Friday I wrote about Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF) learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bombardier Inc. (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF)... learn more on Wednesday, February 24, 2016.
Goodfellow Inc. is one of eastern Canada's largest independent re-manufacturers and distributors of lumber and hardwood flooring products. The company serves customers throughout Canada, the United States and abroad including the UK and China and the Middle East. H.Q is Delson, Quebec, just outside Montreal. It is about 60% owned by insiders. Its web site is here Goodfellow Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF). I started to look at this stock when I was searching for small cap stocks that paid dividends. It looked like an interesting stock. Goodfellow is a small cap stock that the Investor Reporter has written about a number of times.
This company is the type that twice annually declares dividends that they believe that they can afford to pay. So dividends go up and down depending on how well the company is or is not doing.
So how well has this company done in giving out dividends? First dividend yields are moderate. The current dividend yield is 3.41% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 3.74% and the historical median dividend 3.79%. There has not been any increase in dividends if you look at growth over the past 5 and 10 years. In fact dividends have been on the decline since 2010. Dividend growth is a negative 10% and 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
If you had bought this stock exactly 5, 10 or 15 years ago, 17.8%, 39% and 147% of your original cost would be covered by dividends. If you had bought this stock exactly 5, 10 and 15 years ago, you would be earning 3.3% 2.8% and 7.5% on your original cost. The reason we have such a poor showing for after 10 years is because 10 years ago, the stock price was relatively quite high.
For this company it has been a long slow recovery from its top in 2010. However, revenue, earnings and cash flow have increased over the past couple of years. For example revenue is up by 3.5% and 7.8% for the past two years. EPS has been increasing since the low of 2011 and has increased by 32% and 23% for the past two years.
Shareholders have not done badly over the past 5 years with a total return of 9.94% per year with 4.75% per year from dividends and 5.19% per year from capital gains. The 10 years total return is a negative 2.59% per year with 3.13% per year from dividends and capital loss of 5.72% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.03, 14.68 and 15.32. The 10 years corresponding ratios are lower at 8.78, 11.23 and 13.20. This historical median P/E Ratio at 8.69 is even lower. The current P/E Ratio is 10.15 based on a stock price of $10.25 and last 12 months EPS of $1.01. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. However, the stock price is below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $18.50. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.54, 0.63 and 0.70. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.55. This stock seems to generally trade below the Graham Price. The stock price testing suggests again that the stock price is cheap to reasonable and below the median.
A reason that this stock has been quoted as cheap is because it trades below its Book Value per Share. The BVPS is current at $15.06 and the stock price is $10.25. The current P/B Ratio is 0.68. However, this is not much below the 10 years median P/B Ratio of 0.70. The stock price testing suggests again that the stock price is cheap to reasonable and below the median.
The only suggestion that this stock may not been as cheap as it appears is using the dividend yield. The current dividend yield is 3.41% and the historical median dividend yield is higher at 3.79%. What you want is a stock trading at a dividend yield higher than the historical median yield. However, the current yield is not that much lower than the historical at some 9.9% lower.
Because this is a small cap stock with little volume there are no analyst seems to be following this stock.
There is a news item on Benzinga about Goodfellow acquiring Quality Hardwoods Ltd. located in Powassan, Ontario. There is a news item on Stock House about Goodfellow reporting its annual result for November 2015. There is an interesting article by Robert Tattersall in the Globe and Mail about stocks trading below their book value. This stock is included.
The last time Investment Reporter talked about this stock in December 2015 they said Goodfellow Inc. remains buys for price gains and dividends.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On last Friday I wrote about Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF) learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bombardier Inc. (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF)... learn more on Wednesday, February 24, 2016.
Goodfellow Inc. is one of eastern Canada's largest independent re-manufacturers and distributors of lumber and hardwood flooring products. The company serves customers throughout Canada, the United States and abroad including the UK and China and the Middle East. H.Q is Delson, Quebec, just outside Montreal. It is about 60% owned by insiders. Its web site is here Goodfellow Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, February 19, 2016
Emera Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Bit expensive. I think that the new purchase is a positive. They expect this purchase to add to their earnings and dividends growth. See my spreadsheet on Emera Inc.
I own this stock of Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF). I found this company in Mike Higg's site. Mike's site has a spreadsheet showing Dividend Paying Canadian Growth stocks. In 2005, I wanted to buy something for my Locked in RRSP. I was using up excess cash in my account.
I have had this stock for 10 and one half years. I have made a total return of 13.71% per year with 9.43% per year from capital gains and 4.28% per year from dividends. So far some 31% of stock price has been paid for with dividends. On the stock I bought in 2005, I am earning a yield of 10% on my original investment.
Dividends are good and dividend growth is moderate. The current dividend yield is 4.1% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 4.2%. This historical median dividend yield is 4.8%. The 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is at 7.4% and 6.5% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and the increase was for 18.8%.
If you start from today with the dividend yield at 4.1% and with a 7.4% dividend growth and if you buy this stock today, in 5, 10 or 15 years' time you would earning 5.85%, 8.35% or 11.94% on your stock purchase.
This company can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2015 was 61%. The 5 year median is 67%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 32% and the 5 year median is at 32%.
Growth in Revenue, Cash Flow and Earnings is moderate to good. Outstanding share have grown by 5 and 3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, so per share values are the important ones. For example, Revenue has grown by 12.4% and 9.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 6.9% and 6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.34, 15.88 and 17.42. The 10 year corresponding P/E Ratios are similar at 14.31, 16.26 and 18.06. The current P/E Ratio is 19.19 based on a stock price of $46.45 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.42. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is a little expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $35.93. The 10 years Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.96, 1.13 and 1.26. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.29 based on a stock price of $45.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is a little expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are split evenly between Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendations would be a Hold recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $50.29. This implies a total return of 12.36% with 4.09% from dividends and 8.27% from capital gains.
Doug Watt of Motley Fool talks about the impact of Emera's purchase of Teco. The Vista Voice has an article on this stock about analysts recommendations. Note that the price objective listed for Scotiabank etc. in the $30 range must be in US$ not CDN$. US sites often get their currency confused on Canadian stocks. The Investment Reporter talks about Emera being one of their Key Stocks.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Stocks for the Long Run. The next stock I will write about will be Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF)... learn more on Monday, February 22, 2016.
Emera Inc. is geographically diverse energy and services company headquartered in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The company invests in electricity generation, transmission and distribution, as well as gas transmission and utility energy services. Emera has investments throughout northeastern North America, and in four Caribbean countries. Its web site is here Emera Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF). I found this company in Mike Higg's site. Mike's site has a spreadsheet showing Dividend Paying Canadian Growth stocks. In 2005, I wanted to buy something for my Locked in RRSP. I was using up excess cash in my account.
I have had this stock for 10 and one half years. I have made a total return of 13.71% per year with 9.43% per year from capital gains and 4.28% per year from dividends. So far some 31% of stock price has been paid for with dividends. On the stock I bought in 2005, I am earning a yield of 10% on my original investment.
Dividends are good and dividend growth is moderate. The current dividend yield is 4.1% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 4.2%. This historical median dividend yield is 4.8%. The 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is at 7.4% and 6.5% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and the increase was for 18.8%.
If you start from today with the dividend yield at 4.1% and with a 7.4% dividend growth and if you buy this stock today, in 5, 10 or 15 years' time you would earning 5.85%, 8.35% or 11.94% on your stock purchase.
This company can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2015 was 61%. The 5 year median is 67%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 32% and the 5 year median is at 32%.
Growth in Revenue, Cash Flow and Earnings is moderate to good. Outstanding share have grown by 5 and 3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, so per share values are the important ones. For example, Revenue has grown by 12.4% and 9.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 6.9% and 6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.34, 15.88 and 17.42. The 10 year corresponding P/E Ratios are similar at 14.31, 16.26 and 18.06. The current P/E Ratio is 19.19 based on a stock price of $46.45 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.42. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is a little expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $35.93. The 10 years Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.96, 1.13 and 1.26. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.29 based on a stock price of $45.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is a little expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are split evenly between Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendations would be a Hold recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $50.29. This implies a total return of 12.36% with 4.09% from dividends and 8.27% from capital gains.
Doug Watt of Motley Fool talks about the impact of Emera's purchase of Teco. The Vista Voice has an article on this stock about analysts recommendations. Note that the price objective listed for Scotiabank etc. in the $30 range must be in US$ not CDN$. US sites often get their currency confused on Canadian stocks. The Investment Reporter talks about Emera being one of their Key Stocks.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Stocks for the Long Run. The next stock I will write about will be Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF)... learn more on Monday, February 22, 2016.
Emera Inc. is geographically diverse energy and services company headquartered in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The company invests in electricity generation, transmission and distribution, as well as gas transmission and utility energy services. Emera has investments throughout northeastern North America, and in four Caribbean countries. Its web site is here Emera Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Absolute Software Corporation
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Interesting and risky tech. It may not be the time to invest in this stock because at present Revenue and Cash Flow is declining. I would like to both pick up again before suggesting this is a buy. However, as the article on CanTech shows, others think differently. See my spreadsheet on Absolute Software Corporation .
I do not own this stock of Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF). The Motley Fool published an article by Matt DiLallo in December 2014 called The 10 Best Stocks in Canada. It is basically a list of the best-performing Canadian stocks of the past decade. (You might have to go into this article a second time to get the full article.)
I decided to take a look at this stock since it paid dividends. Dividends just started in 2013. Although this company is reporting in US$, it is paying dividends in CDN$. Dividends are moderate to good and the increases the same. The current dividend yield is 5.25% and the 3 year median is 3.34%. Dividend growth over the past 3 year is 15.7%. This last dividend increase was in 2015 and was for 14.3%.
They can afford the dividends as far as cash flow goes, but not in connection with EPS. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 for EPS is expected to be 172%. The DPR for 2015 for EPS was 270%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 49.1%. See my blog for some discussion on Dividend Payout Ratios.
However, a notable thing about this company is the high cash and cash equivalents this company has. This is currently worth some 21.2% of the stock's value based on a current stock price of $6.10. There is $1.30 cash per share.
Both Revenue and Cash Flow has been increasing at a good rate, although Revenue has been slowing down. EPS just started to increase over the past 3 years. Revenue has grown by 8% and 25% over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue for 2016 is expected to decline and this has not happened before. If you compare Revenue over the 12 months to the end of the second quarterly 2016 report and to the 12 month period to the end of June 2015 (annual statement date), it has declined by some 1.2%.
Cash Flow has grown at around 30% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow slowed down in 2015 and it is expected to decline in 2016. If you compare Cash Flow over the 12 months to the end of the second quarterly 2016 report and to the 12 month period to the end of June 2015 (annual statement date), it has declined by some 38%.
The most notable thing I see is that the book value is negative. The reason is basically deferred revenue. There is an article on Investopedia that deals with this item. The other notable item is that under Share Capital there is an item of Equity Reserve in connection with granting stock options to insiders.
The debt ratios are not very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.92. It means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. The Debt Ratio is also low at 0.92. This is why the book value is negative.
I cannot do any stock price testing. EPS was negative until 2013. Median P/E Ratios was 131.28 in 2013, 74.24 in 2014 and 68.02 in 2015. They are currently at 24.49 based on a stock price of $6.10 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.25 CDN$. A P/E Ratio of 24.49 is good for a Tech stock.
I cannot calculate a Graham Price as the Book Value is negative. You cannot do any stock price checking with the P/B Ratio as the Book Value is negative.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $7.52. This implies a total return of 28.52% with 23.28% from capital gains and 5.25% from dividends. This assumes a current stock price $6.10.
Nick Waddell in an article on CanTech says that this stock is undervalued. Maddie Sorensen in a recent article on Financial Market News talks about insider buying at Absolute Software.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Taxing the Rich. The next stock I will write about will be Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF)... learn more on Friday, February 19, 2016.
Absolute Software Corporation is the industry standard in persistent endpoint security and management for computers, laptops, tablets and smartphones. The Company, a leader in device security and management tracking for 20 years, has over 30,000 commercial customers worldwide. Its web site is here Absolute Software Corporation .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF). The Motley Fool published an article by Matt DiLallo in December 2014 called The 10 Best Stocks in Canada. It is basically a list of the best-performing Canadian stocks of the past decade. (You might have to go into this article a second time to get the full article.)
I decided to take a look at this stock since it paid dividends. Dividends just started in 2013. Although this company is reporting in US$, it is paying dividends in CDN$. Dividends are moderate to good and the increases the same. The current dividend yield is 5.25% and the 3 year median is 3.34%. Dividend growth over the past 3 year is 15.7%. This last dividend increase was in 2015 and was for 14.3%.
They can afford the dividends as far as cash flow goes, but not in connection with EPS. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 for EPS is expected to be 172%. The DPR for 2015 for EPS was 270%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 49.1%. See my blog for some discussion on Dividend Payout Ratios.
However, a notable thing about this company is the high cash and cash equivalents this company has. This is currently worth some 21.2% of the stock's value based on a current stock price of $6.10. There is $1.30 cash per share.
Both Revenue and Cash Flow has been increasing at a good rate, although Revenue has been slowing down. EPS just started to increase over the past 3 years. Revenue has grown by 8% and 25% over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue for 2016 is expected to decline and this has not happened before. If you compare Revenue over the 12 months to the end of the second quarterly 2016 report and to the 12 month period to the end of June 2015 (annual statement date), it has declined by some 1.2%.
Cash Flow has grown at around 30% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow slowed down in 2015 and it is expected to decline in 2016. If you compare Cash Flow over the 12 months to the end of the second quarterly 2016 report and to the 12 month period to the end of June 2015 (annual statement date), it has declined by some 38%.
The most notable thing I see is that the book value is negative. The reason is basically deferred revenue. There is an article on Investopedia that deals with this item. The other notable item is that under Share Capital there is an item of Equity Reserve in connection with granting stock options to insiders.
The debt ratios are not very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.92. It means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. The Debt Ratio is also low at 0.92. This is why the book value is negative.
I cannot do any stock price testing. EPS was negative until 2013. Median P/E Ratios was 131.28 in 2013, 74.24 in 2014 and 68.02 in 2015. They are currently at 24.49 based on a stock price of $6.10 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.25 CDN$. A P/E Ratio of 24.49 is good for a Tech stock.
I cannot calculate a Graham Price as the Book Value is negative. You cannot do any stock price checking with the P/B Ratio as the Book Value is negative.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $7.52. This implies a total return of 28.52% with 23.28% from capital gains and 5.25% from dividends. This assumes a current stock price $6.10.
Nick Waddell in an article on CanTech says that this stock is undervalued. Maddie Sorensen in a recent article on Financial Market News talks about insider buying at Absolute Software.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Taxing the Rich. The next stock I will write about will be Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF)... learn more on Friday, February 19, 2016.
Absolute Software Corporation is the industry standard in persistent endpoint security and management for computers, laptops, tablets and smartphones. The Company, a leader in device security and management tracking for 20 years, has over 30,000 commercial customers worldwide. Its web site is here Absolute Software Corporation .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, February 12, 2016
Manitoba Telecom Services Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Relatively expensive. It is interesting that this stock seems to be going in the opposite direction of the TSX over the past year. See my spreadsheet on Manitoba Telecom Services Inc.
I own this stock of Manitoba Telecom Services Inc. (TSX-MBT, OTC-MOBAF). I still have some of this stock but I do wish I had never bought it. I have not lost money on it, but I have gained very little. I have made a return of 2.55%. I have a capital loss, but I have had some good dividend income.
This is not a dividend growth stock. It appeared to be prior to my purchase in 2006 that they might be a dividend growth stock since they started to pay dividends in 1997. They had raised their dividends each year except for one year between 1998 and 2006. However, since 2006 dividends have been flat or cut in every year.
The most recent change in dividends was in 2015 when dividends were cut by 23.5%. Dividends have declined by 11.4% and 6.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. They really cannot even afford current dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2015 was 168%. Analysts expect DPR for EPS to be over 100% in 2016 and decline below 100% in 2017.
The dividends are not extraordinarily high currently. The current dividend yield is 4.19% based on dividends $1.30 and a stock price of $31.06. The historical median dividend yield is 5.27% as is the 5 year median dividend yield.
I do not have much good to report. The Revenues, Earnings, Cash Flow and Book Value have all been heading south. Their Liquidity Ratio is very low at 0.87. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. The Liquidity Ratio tends to be low in Telecom stocks, but for this stock if you add in cash flow after dividends you only get to 0.89. Other Telecom stocks I follow with cash flow after dividends added in gets you above 1.00. This gives the company vulnerably in bad times and times are not currently very good.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.19, 12.32 and 13.50. The P/E Ratios have been getting lower. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.96, 17.17 and 19.21. This generally means that investors are unwilling to pay the same relative price for this stock against EPS than in the past.
The current P/E Ratio is 25.67 based on a stock price of $31.06 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $18.97. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.09, 1.20 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.64. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Even the dividend yield tends to show that the stock price is relatively expensive. The historical median dividend yield is 5.27% and this is some 20.6% higher than the current dividend yield of 4.19%.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $30.09. This implies a total return of $1.06% with a capital loss of 3.12% and dividends of 4.19%.
Maddie Sorensen on Financial Market News talks about some recent analysts changes on this stock. Jonathan Ratner at the Financial Post talks about why BCE should buy this company. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Note that this company has sold Allstream.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Planning for Bear Markets . Since Monday is a holiday, I will not be doing any post. On Tuesday, I write on my other blog about problems of taxing the "rich". The next stock I will write about will be Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF)... learn more on Wednesday, February 17, 2015.
The company serves its customers through two industry-leading service platforms: FirstService Residential, North America's largest manager of residential communities; and FirstService Brands, one of North America's largest providers of essential property services delivered through individually branded franchise systems and company-owned operations. Its web site is here Manitoba Telecom Services Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Manitoba Telecom Services Inc. (TSX-MBT, OTC-MOBAF). I still have some of this stock but I do wish I had never bought it. I have not lost money on it, but I have gained very little. I have made a return of 2.55%. I have a capital loss, but I have had some good dividend income.
This is not a dividend growth stock. It appeared to be prior to my purchase in 2006 that they might be a dividend growth stock since they started to pay dividends in 1997. They had raised their dividends each year except for one year between 1998 and 2006. However, since 2006 dividends have been flat or cut in every year.
The most recent change in dividends was in 2015 when dividends were cut by 23.5%. Dividends have declined by 11.4% and 6.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. They really cannot even afford current dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2015 was 168%. Analysts expect DPR for EPS to be over 100% in 2016 and decline below 100% in 2017.
The dividends are not extraordinarily high currently. The current dividend yield is 4.19% based on dividends $1.30 and a stock price of $31.06. The historical median dividend yield is 5.27% as is the 5 year median dividend yield.
I do not have much good to report. The Revenues, Earnings, Cash Flow and Book Value have all been heading south. Their Liquidity Ratio is very low at 0.87. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. The Liquidity Ratio tends to be low in Telecom stocks, but for this stock if you add in cash flow after dividends you only get to 0.89. Other Telecom stocks I follow with cash flow after dividends added in gets you above 1.00. This gives the company vulnerably in bad times and times are not currently very good.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.19, 12.32 and 13.50. The P/E Ratios have been getting lower. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.96, 17.17 and 19.21. This generally means that investors are unwilling to pay the same relative price for this stock against EPS than in the past.
The current P/E Ratio is 25.67 based on a stock price of $31.06 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $18.97. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.09, 1.20 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.64. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Even the dividend yield tends to show that the stock price is relatively expensive. The historical median dividend yield is 5.27% and this is some 20.6% higher than the current dividend yield of 4.19%.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $30.09. This implies a total return of $1.06% with a capital loss of 3.12% and dividends of 4.19%.
Maddie Sorensen on Financial Market News talks about some recent analysts changes on this stock. Jonathan Ratner at the Financial Post talks about why BCE should buy this company. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Note that this company has sold Allstream.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Planning for Bear Markets . Since Monday is a holiday, I will not be doing any post. On Tuesday, I write on my other blog about problems of taxing the "rich". The next stock I will write about will be Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF)... learn more on Wednesday, February 17, 2015.
The company serves its customers through two industry-leading service platforms: FirstService Residential, North America's largest manager of residential communities; and FirstService Brands, one of North America's largest providers of essential property services delivered through individually branded franchise systems and company-owned operations. Its web site is here Manitoba Telecom Services Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Canadian National Railway
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Stock. This stock currently looks like it is selling at a reasonable price. Although the dividend is low the growth is good. I have had this stock for 11 years and I am making a dividend yield of 8.3% on my original stock cost. See my spreadsheet on Canadian National Railway.
I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). I am following this stock because I own it. In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases.
The dividend yield is low and the dividend growth is good. The current dividend at 2% is higher than the dividend yield generally is. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.6% and the historical dividend yield is 1.5%. The dividends have grown at 18.3% and 17.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2016 and it was for 20%.
This stock is considered to be a dividend growth stock. This means it increases it dividends on a regular basis. See my site for information on Dividend Growth Stocks.
The other thing to mention is that this company has good Dividend Payout Ratios. The DPR for EPS for 2015 was 28.5% and its 5 year median is 26%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 18.6% and its 5 year median is 17%.
This company has been buying back its own shares recently. Shares on this company have increased due to Stock Options and decreased due to Buy Backs. The outstanding shares have dropped by 3.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The outstanding shares have decreased every year since 2003. This means that things like EPS may not be as good as they appear. EPS has grown at 14.4% and 12.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Net Income has grown at 11% and 8.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 14.67, 17.28 and 19.90. The corresponding 10 years Ratios are lower at 12.00, 13.55 and 14.91. The current P/E Ratio is 16.54. This is based on a stock price of $76.24 and 2016 EPS estimate of $4.61. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median.
I get a Graham Price of $44.38. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.15, 1.29 and 1.43. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. The problem is that the stock price has been increasing faster than the book value for this stock.
The current Dividend Yield is 1.97% based on a stock price of $76.24 and dividends of $1.50. This is some 34% higher than the historical median dividend yield and this suggests a reasonable to good stock price. However, the Dividend Payout Ratios have been steadily increasing since this company went public in 1995.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations. Most the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendations is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $78.08. This implies a total return of 4.38% with 1.97% from dividends and 2.41% from capital gains.
In this news CNR talks about it plans to spend on infrastructure. Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool talks about why you should buy CNR. Analysts' talk about this stock on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those blog entries here and here.
Canadian National Railway Company and its operating railway subsidiaries, spans Canada and mid-America, from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the Gulf of Mexico, serving the ports of Vancouver, Prince Rupert, B.C., Montreal, Halifax, New Orleans, and Mobile, Ala., and the key metropolitan areas of Toronto, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Duluth, Minn./Superior, Wis., Green Bay, Wis., Minneapolis/St. Paul, Memphis, St. Louis, and Jackson, Miss., with connections to all points in North America. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). I am following this stock because I own it. In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases.
The dividend yield is low and the dividend growth is good. The current dividend at 2% is higher than the dividend yield generally is. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.6% and the historical dividend yield is 1.5%. The dividends have grown at 18.3% and 17.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2016 and it was for 20%.
This stock is considered to be a dividend growth stock. This means it increases it dividends on a regular basis. See my site for information on Dividend Growth Stocks.
The other thing to mention is that this company has good Dividend Payout Ratios. The DPR for EPS for 2015 was 28.5% and its 5 year median is 26%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 18.6% and its 5 year median is 17%.
This company has been buying back its own shares recently. Shares on this company have increased due to Stock Options and decreased due to Buy Backs. The outstanding shares have dropped by 3.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The outstanding shares have decreased every year since 2003. This means that things like EPS may not be as good as they appear. EPS has grown at 14.4% and 12.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Net Income has grown at 11% and 8.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 14.67, 17.28 and 19.90. The corresponding 10 years Ratios are lower at 12.00, 13.55 and 14.91. The current P/E Ratio is 16.54. This is based on a stock price of $76.24 and 2016 EPS estimate of $4.61. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median.
I get a Graham Price of $44.38. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.15, 1.29 and 1.43. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. The problem is that the stock price has been increasing faster than the book value for this stock.
The current Dividend Yield is 1.97% based on a stock price of $76.24 and dividends of $1.50. This is some 34% higher than the historical median dividend yield and this suggests a reasonable to good stock price. However, the Dividend Payout Ratios have been steadily increasing since this company went public in 1995.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations. Most the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendations is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $78.08. This implies a total return of 4.38% with 1.97% from dividends and 2.41% from capital gains.
In this news CNR talks about it plans to spend on infrastructure. Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool talks about why you should buy CNR. Analysts' talk about this stock on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those blog entries here and here.
Canadian National Railway Company and its operating railway subsidiaries, spans Canada and mid-America, from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the Gulf of Mexico, serving the ports of Vancouver, Prince Rupert, B.C., Montreal, Halifax, New Orleans, and Mobile, Ala., and the key metropolitan areas of Toronto, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Duluth, Minn./Superior, Wis., Green Bay, Wis., Minneapolis/St. Paul, Memphis, St. Louis, and Jackson, Miss., with connections to all points in North America. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, February 8, 2016
Exco Technologies Ltd.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Good stock, good price. This small tech stock is doing well and is earning money for its shareholders. It has good growth in dividends. See my spreadsheet on Exco Technologies Ltd.
I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.
Dividends are low to moderate. The dividend growth is moderate to high. The current dividend yield is 1.89% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 2.80%. Dividend growth is at 24.3% and 16.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Dividends just started 12 years ago. The reason that the 5 year growth is better than the 10 years growth is that dividends did not grow at first.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2015 is 24% and the 5 year DPR for EPS is 26.7%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 is 16.5% and the 5 year median is 18.2%.
The company had some difficulty in the 2008 to 2010 time frame with lower Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow. However things picked up and the growth over the past 5 and 10 years to date is good. For example, Revenue has grown by 24.7% and 8.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 23.8% and 8.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The company has a strong balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 was 2.27, the Debt Ratio for 2015 was 3.50 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 was 1.40 and 0.40. These are all very good ratios.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 8.50, 10.40 and 12.31. The corresponding 10 year ratios are close at 8.39, 10.21 and 12.04. The current P/E Ratio is 10.32 based on a stock price of $12.69 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.23. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median.
I get a Graham Price of $13.00. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 096 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median. On an absolute basis an P/GP Ratio lower than 1.00 suggests a stock is selling at a good price.
Looking at the dividend yield the picture is basically the same. The historical median dividend is 1.95% which is some 3% higher than the current dividend yield of 1.89%. You want a current dividend yield that is higher than the median. In this case it is not much higher. So again this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $19.10. This implies a total return of 51.69% with 1.89% from dividends and 49.80% from capital gains. (See my blog for information on Analyst Ratings .)
Nick Waddell in the CanTech Letter gave a good report on this stock. In this News Release Exco Technologies Ltd talks about its first quarterly results for 2016. There are some analysts' comments at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
Exco is a global designer, developer and manufacturer of dies, moulds, equipment, components and assemblies to the die-cast, extrusion and automotive industries. The Die Casting and Extrusion Technology groups operations are based in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Colombia and primarily serve automotive and industrial markets throughout the world. The Automotive Solutions Group has facilities are located in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Morocco and supply the North American, European and Asian markets. Its web site is here Exco Technologies Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.
Dividends are low to moderate. The dividend growth is moderate to high. The current dividend yield is 1.89% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 2.80%. Dividend growth is at 24.3% and 16.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Dividends just started 12 years ago. The reason that the 5 year growth is better than the 10 years growth is that dividends did not grow at first.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2015 is 24% and the 5 year DPR for EPS is 26.7%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 is 16.5% and the 5 year median is 18.2%.
The company had some difficulty in the 2008 to 2010 time frame with lower Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow. However things picked up and the growth over the past 5 and 10 years to date is good. For example, Revenue has grown by 24.7% and 8.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 23.8% and 8.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The company has a strong balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 was 2.27, the Debt Ratio for 2015 was 3.50 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 was 1.40 and 0.40. These are all very good ratios.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 8.50, 10.40 and 12.31. The corresponding 10 year ratios are close at 8.39, 10.21 and 12.04. The current P/E Ratio is 10.32 based on a stock price of $12.69 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.23. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median.
I get a Graham Price of $13.00. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 096 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median. On an absolute basis an P/GP Ratio lower than 1.00 suggests a stock is selling at a good price.
Looking at the dividend yield the picture is basically the same. The historical median dividend is 1.95% which is some 3% higher than the current dividend yield of 1.89%. You want a current dividend yield that is higher than the median. In this case it is not much higher. So again this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $19.10. This implies a total return of 51.69% with 1.89% from dividends and 49.80% from capital gains. (See my blog for information on Analyst Ratings .)
Nick Waddell in the CanTech Letter gave a good report on this stock. In this News Release Exco Technologies Ltd talks about its first quarterly results for 2016. There are some analysts' comments at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
Exco is a global designer, developer and manufacturer of dies, moulds, equipment, components and assemblies to the die-cast, extrusion and automotive industries. The Die Casting and Extrusion Technology groups operations are based in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Colombia and primarily serve automotive and industrial markets throughout the world. The Automotive Solutions Group has facilities are located in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Morocco and supply the North American, European and Asian markets. Its web site is here Exco Technologies Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, February 5, 2016
AGF Management Ltd.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap for a reason. I would not believe a turnaround in this company unless it actually happened and seemed sustainable. There is Net Insider Buying of 0.77% of market cap. This is relatively high. See my spreadsheet on AGF Management Ltd.
I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd. (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF), but I used to. I bought this stock in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.
It is sad to see a once great company do so poorly. For the stock I bought I made a 2.08% total return with 2.09% from dividends and a capital loss of 0.01%. I know I was getting concerned about this stock in 2006 and I made a note that I was, but I did not state what I thought the problem was. The stock certainly hit its high in 2007 and has not recovered. They had certainly raised their dividends at the expense of their Dividend Payout Ratio since 2003.
It was not until they were paying out way more than their earnings in 2012 that they stopped raising their dividends. They were flat for a few years and it was not until 2015 when they finally cut their dividends. In 2006 I was probably concerned about the DPR.
This is no longer a dividend growth stock. For it to be that again, it will need to grow its business again. Analysts seem to expect slight improvements starting in 2017. However, I would want to some sustained improvement if I would ever consider this company a good investment again.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 13.69, 16.32 and 18.96. The 10 year corresponding ratios are similar at 12.42, 15.42 and 19.58. The current P/E Ratio is 9.33 based on a stock price of $4.57 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.49. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $11.21. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratio is 0.73, 0.95 and 1.25. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.41 based on a stock price of $4.57. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.
When I looked at analysts' recommendations, I saw Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus would be Underperform. The 12 month stock price is $4.86. This implies a total return of 13.35% with 7.00% from dividends and 6.35% from capital gains. It may seem high but most is dividends and you have to wonder if they are assured.
There is an article by Christina Pellegrini in the Financial Post that talks about Assets under Management (AUM) sliding this this company and other Canadian investment firms. This article in EMQ News and Analysis talks about insider buying and recent analysts ratings. See analysts' comments on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here
AGF Management Limited is an integrated, global wealth management company, whose principal subsidiaries provide investment management for mutual funds, institutions and corporations, as well as high-net-worth clients; and trust products and services. They sell their products in Canada. Its web site is here AGF Management Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd. (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF), but I used to. I bought this stock in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.
It is sad to see a once great company do so poorly. For the stock I bought I made a 2.08% total return with 2.09% from dividends and a capital loss of 0.01%. I know I was getting concerned about this stock in 2006 and I made a note that I was, but I did not state what I thought the problem was. The stock certainly hit its high in 2007 and has not recovered. They had certainly raised their dividends at the expense of their Dividend Payout Ratio since 2003.
It was not until they were paying out way more than their earnings in 2012 that they stopped raising their dividends. They were flat for a few years and it was not until 2015 when they finally cut their dividends. In 2006 I was probably concerned about the DPR.
This is no longer a dividend growth stock. For it to be that again, it will need to grow its business again. Analysts seem to expect slight improvements starting in 2017. However, I would want to some sustained improvement if I would ever consider this company a good investment again.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 13.69, 16.32 and 18.96. The 10 year corresponding ratios are similar at 12.42, 15.42 and 19.58. The current P/E Ratio is 9.33 based on a stock price of $4.57 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.49. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $11.21. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratio is 0.73, 0.95 and 1.25. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.41 based on a stock price of $4.57. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.
When I looked at analysts' recommendations, I saw Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus would be Underperform. The 12 month stock price is $4.86. This implies a total return of 13.35% with 7.00% from dividends and 6.35% from capital gains. It may seem high but most is dividends and you have to wonder if they are assured.
There is an article by Christina Pellegrini in the Financial Post that talks about Assets under Management (AUM) sliding this this company and other Canadian investment firms. This article in EMQ News and Analysis talks about insider buying and recent analysts ratings. See analysts' comments on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here
AGF Management Limited is an integrated, global wealth management company, whose principal subsidiaries provide investment management for mutual funds, institutions and corporations, as well as high-net-worth clients; and trust products and services. They sell their products in Canada. Its web site is here AGF Management Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
Shaw Communications Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap to reasonable price. This company is quite reasonable priced and it currently is a dividend growth company. They are making a profit for shareholders, but stock options and insiders selling are rather high. See my spreadsheet on Shaw Communications Inc.
I do not own this stock of Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). I am following this stock because it was a stock on Investment Reporter's list, a MPL Communications Publication.
This is a dividend growth stock with good dividends and low growth. The current dividend is 4.89% based dividends of $1.19 and a stock price of $24.25. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.22%. I have dividend information going back to 1994. At first dividends were very low and dividend growth very low. Dividends were under 1% and dividend growth low at around 4%.
Dividends were ramped up between 2004 and 2009. This is why the 10 year dividend growth is at 23.4% per year. However, the dividend increases are again low with a 5 year growth of 5.9% per year. The last dividend increase was moderate at 7.7% in 2015. Since around 2009 the dividends have been in the 3 to5% range.
With the current dividend of 4.89% and assuming that dividend growth averages 5.9% per year, in 5 years' time you could be earning 6.51% on an investment today or in 10 years' time you could be earning 8.67% on an investment today or in 15 years' time you could be earning 11.55% on an investment made today.
I note that this company gives out a lot of stock options. Over the past 3 years outstanding shares have increased by 0.79%, 0.74% and in 2015 by 1.24% due to stock options. This is high by my standards. For the stocks that I cover the median increase in outstanding shares due to stock options is 0.27% and 70% of the companies increased their outstanding shares by 0.54% or less due to stock options.
Also there is a relatively a lot of insiders' selling. Net insider selling in 2015 was at 0.47% of market cap. The median net insider's selling for the stock I follow is at 0.02% and 70% of the companies I follow, insider selling at 0.11% or lower. Lots of insider selling could be due to the high amount of stock options granted.
I follow BCE, Manitoba Telecom and Telus Corp. also and these stocks are not out of line with stock options or net insider selling from my point of view.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.00, 14.14 and 15.98. The 10 year corresponding values are similar at 13.18, 14.83 and 17.36. The historical median P/E Ratio is 16.02. The current P/E Ratio is 13.62 based on a stock price of $24.25 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.78. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of 21.02. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.24, 1.48 and 1.68. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.15 based on a stock price of $24.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The stock looks reasonable to cheap using dividend yields also. I recently put out a report stock prices and dividend yield. See my spreadsheet at dividend growth stocks that I just updated for February 2016.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $27.38. This implies a total return of $17.79% with 4.89% from dividends and 12.91% from capital gains. It is a rather high return for a Hold rating.
This article in the Calgary Herald talks about TV mogul JR Shaw being the most generously compensated executive in Calgary in fiscal 2014 at $17.9M. Demetris Afxentiou of Motley Fool likes this company and its long term potential. Christina Pellegrini wrote in the Financial Post how Shaw may become a growth story in the future.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those report here and here.
Shaw Communications Inc. is a diversified communications company whose core business is providing broadband cable television, Internet, digital phone and satellite direct-to-home services. Its web site is here Shaw Communications Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). I am following this stock because it was a stock on Investment Reporter's list, a MPL Communications Publication.
This is a dividend growth stock with good dividends and low growth. The current dividend is 4.89% based dividends of $1.19 and a stock price of $24.25. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.22%. I have dividend information going back to 1994. At first dividends were very low and dividend growth very low. Dividends were under 1% and dividend growth low at around 4%.
Dividends were ramped up between 2004 and 2009. This is why the 10 year dividend growth is at 23.4% per year. However, the dividend increases are again low with a 5 year growth of 5.9% per year. The last dividend increase was moderate at 7.7% in 2015. Since around 2009 the dividends have been in the 3 to5% range.
With the current dividend of 4.89% and assuming that dividend growth averages 5.9% per year, in 5 years' time you could be earning 6.51% on an investment today or in 10 years' time you could be earning 8.67% on an investment today or in 15 years' time you could be earning 11.55% on an investment made today.
I note that this company gives out a lot of stock options. Over the past 3 years outstanding shares have increased by 0.79%, 0.74% and in 2015 by 1.24% due to stock options. This is high by my standards. For the stocks that I cover the median increase in outstanding shares due to stock options is 0.27% and 70% of the companies increased their outstanding shares by 0.54% or less due to stock options.
Also there is a relatively a lot of insiders' selling. Net insider selling in 2015 was at 0.47% of market cap. The median net insider's selling for the stock I follow is at 0.02% and 70% of the companies I follow, insider selling at 0.11% or lower. Lots of insider selling could be due to the high amount of stock options granted.
I follow BCE, Manitoba Telecom and Telus Corp. also and these stocks are not out of line with stock options or net insider selling from my point of view.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.00, 14.14 and 15.98. The 10 year corresponding values are similar at 13.18, 14.83 and 17.36. The historical median P/E Ratio is 16.02. The current P/E Ratio is 13.62 based on a stock price of $24.25 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.78. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of 21.02. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.24, 1.48 and 1.68. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.15 based on a stock price of $24.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The stock looks reasonable to cheap using dividend yields also. I recently put out a report stock prices and dividend yield. See my spreadsheet at dividend growth stocks that I just updated for February 2016.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $27.38. This implies a total return of $17.79% with 4.89% from dividends and 12.91% from capital gains. It is a rather high return for a Hold rating.
This article in the Calgary Herald talks about TV mogul JR Shaw being the most generously compensated executive in Calgary in fiscal 2014 at $17.9M. Demetris Afxentiou of Motley Fool likes this company and its long term potential. Christina Pellegrini wrote in the Financial Post how Shaw may become a growth story in the future.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those report here and here.
Shaw Communications Inc. is a diversified communications company whose core business is providing broadband cable television, Internet, digital phone and satellite direct-to-home services. Its web site is here Shaw Communications Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, February 1, 2016
Valener Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Not yet a dividend growth stock. Dividends have started to rise again, but under Gaz Metro dividend when down as well and up. I also worry about the heavy debt load of Gaz Metro which Valener is mostly invested in. See my spreadsheet on Valener Inc.
I do not own this stock of Valener Inc. (TSX-VNR, OTC-VNRCF). I was looking for another utility to invest in, in 2009 and I was looking possibly at another pipeline stock. This company has natural gas pipelines in Quebec. I also recognized the name of this company. In 2010 it reorganized and made a public utility stock out of 29% of what was Gas Metro. This makes the valuation of this stock very complex.
It looks like this stock is trying to be a dividend growth stock again. After the reorganization of Gaz Metro in 2010 this company was formed with a 29% interest in Gaz Metro. Shareholders got their dividend decreased by just over 19%. Then the dividends were flat for 4 years until last year when they were increased by 4% and this year they were again increase and this increase was 3.8%.
It would appear that would again be a stock with a good dividend and a low rate of increase. The current dividend yield is 5.53% and the 5 year median dividend yield 6.27%. There should be some caution with this stock. Under Gaz Metro dividends were decreased as well as increased. It is hard to know at present if this stock will truly by a dividend growth stock.
Most of this company is invested in Gaz Metro. Therefore you have to consider Gaz Metro's annual statements also. The most notable thing is that Gaz Metro debt ratios are a lot worse than Valener's debt Ratios. Gaz Metro's Liquidity Ratio is 1.05 against Valener's of 1.27. Gaz Metro's Debt Ratio is 1.34 against Valener's of 5.60. Gaz Metro's Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are of 3.95 and 2.95 against Valener's 1.22 and 10.22. In all cases Valener's ratios are good and Gaz Metro's are mediocre at best.
Both companies seem to have hit a low in 2012 and things have been picking up since then. Although 5 and 10 years growth is from non-existent to low to moderate; revenue, income and earnings have been growing over the last 3 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratio was below 100% in 2015 and is expected to be lower in 2016. The last time this ratio was below 100% was in 2010. The DPR for 2015 for EPS was 91% and is expected to be around 88% in 2016.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.69, 16.16 and 16.63. These are close to the 10 year values of 14.38, 15.67 and 16.60. The current P/E Ratio is 15.87 based on a stock price of $19.20 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median.
I get a Graham Price of $21.58. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 0.96 and 1.05. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
However, if you look at dividends, the story is different. I am following this stock from Gaz Metro's into Gaz Metro's reorganization in 2010. I have historical date back to 1997 and beyond. The historical median dividend yield is 7.22% a value that is some 22% higher than the current dividend yield of 5.63% based on Dividends of $1.08 and a stock price $19.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
The current dividend yield is closer to the 5 year median dividend yield of 6.27% a value some 10% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
There are 5 analysts following this stock and all give a recommendation of Hold. The consensus therefore would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $18.34. This implies a total return of 1.15%, with a capital loss of 4.48% and dividends at 5.63%. This is based on a current stock price of $19.20.
Tammy Falkenburg on Zolmax talks about recent ratings for this company by National Bank and RBC Capital. A sector perform rating is the same as a Hold rating. There is a press release via Stock House where Valener requested a withdrawal of its Standard & Poor's ("S&P") corporate credit rating following a methodology change that resulted in what it views as an unjustified downgrade by the rating agency. Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool likes this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
Valener owns 29% of Gaz Metro and also owns a stake in the Seigneurie de Beaupré wind power projects located northeast of the city of Québec. Gaz Metro is Quebec's leading natural gas distributor. Its web site is here Valener Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Valener Inc. (TSX-VNR, OTC-VNRCF). I was looking for another utility to invest in, in 2009 and I was looking possibly at another pipeline stock. This company has natural gas pipelines in Quebec. I also recognized the name of this company. In 2010 it reorganized and made a public utility stock out of 29% of what was Gas Metro. This makes the valuation of this stock very complex.
It looks like this stock is trying to be a dividend growth stock again. After the reorganization of Gaz Metro in 2010 this company was formed with a 29% interest in Gaz Metro. Shareholders got their dividend decreased by just over 19%. Then the dividends were flat for 4 years until last year when they were increased by 4% and this year they were again increase and this increase was 3.8%.
It would appear that would again be a stock with a good dividend and a low rate of increase. The current dividend yield is 5.53% and the 5 year median dividend yield 6.27%. There should be some caution with this stock. Under Gaz Metro dividends were decreased as well as increased. It is hard to know at present if this stock will truly by a dividend growth stock.
Most of this company is invested in Gaz Metro. Therefore you have to consider Gaz Metro's annual statements also. The most notable thing is that Gaz Metro debt ratios are a lot worse than Valener's debt Ratios. Gaz Metro's Liquidity Ratio is 1.05 against Valener's of 1.27. Gaz Metro's Debt Ratio is 1.34 against Valener's of 5.60. Gaz Metro's Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are of 3.95 and 2.95 against Valener's 1.22 and 10.22. In all cases Valener's ratios are good and Gaz Metro's are mediocre at best.
Both companies seem to have hit a low in 2012 and things have been picking up since then. Although 5 and 10 years growth is from non-existent to low to moderate; revenue, income and earnings have been growing over the last 3 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratio was below 100% in 2015 and is expected to be lower in 2016. The last time this ratio was below 100% was in 2010. The DPR for 2015 for EPS was 91% and is expected to be around 88% in 2016.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.69, 16.16 and 16.63. These are close to the 10 year values of 14.38, 15.67 and 16.60. The current P/E Ratio is 15.87 based on a stock price of $19.20 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median.
I get a Graham Price of $21.58. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 0.96 and 1.05. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
However, if you look at dividends, the story is different. I am following this stock from Gaz Metro's into Gaz Metro's reorganization in 2010. I have historical date back to 1997 and beyond. The historical median dividend yield is 7.22% a value that is some 22% higher than the current dividend yield of 5.63% based on Dividends of $1.08 and a stock price $19.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
The current dividend yield is closer to the 5 year median dividend yield of 6.27% a value some 10% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
There are 5 analysts following this stock and all give a recommendation of Hold. The consensus therefore would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $18.34. This implies a total return of 1.15%, with a capital loss of 4.48% and dividends at 5.63%. This is based on a current stock price of $19.20.
Tammy Falkenburg on Zolmax talks about recent ratings for this company by National Bank and RBC Capital. A sector perform rating is the same as a Hold rating. There is a press release via Stock House where Valener requested a withdrawal of its Standard & Poor's ("S&P") corporate credit rating following a methodology change that resulted in what it views as an unjustified downgrade by the rating agency. Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool likes this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
Valener owns 29% of Gaz Metro and also owns a stake in the Seigneurie de Beaupré wind power projects located northeast of the city of Québec. Gaz Metro is Quebec's leading natural gas distributor. Its web site is here Valener Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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