On my other blog I am today writing about ticket pricing lies continue...
I do not own this stock of Alliance Grain Traders Inc. (TSX-AGT, OTC-AGXXF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the 2009 Money Show. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trust being currently good buys with very good yield. This stock had already converted to a corporation. Since then the yield has declined from around 7% to around 2%.
This company just went public in 2005 as an Income Trust. The dividends were always only paid quarterly and at first the dividends seemed to vary. For example in 2006 they seemed to pay two dividends of $0.12535, then one of $0.11918 and then another of $0.12535. The company changed to a corporation in 2009 without changing their dividends.
However, the dividends have not changed much or had much in the way of growth over the last little while. There was one increase of 11% in 2011 and that is it. Dividends have grown at 2% and 2.3% over the past 5 and 8years. No one expects any growth in dividends this year or next. This is probably because they have not been earning much money. Both 2011 and 2013 had earnings losses. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS in 2012 was at 176%. Analysts' expect DPR for EPS to be around 50% for 2014.
The total return has not been good over the past 5 year, but has been over the past 10 years. This is because the stock price has increased with the dividend yield going from 10% to 2.8% today. The Price/Earnings Ratio has also gone from an average of 9.90 to 17.47 today.
The 5 year total return is a loss of 4.24% per year with a capital loss of 6.48% per year and dividends of 2.24% per year. The 10 year total return is at 22.05% per year with a capital gain of 15.66% per year and dividends of 6.39% per year.
The outstanding shares have gone from 1M to 19M for an 8 year increase of 1886%. Over the past 5 years outstanding shares have increased by 20% per year. They have been issuing shares to raise money, but there has been some increase due to stock options. A positive is that the CEO has shares worth around 61.6M. However, he has sold some shares since I last review this stock when his shares were worth around 71.1M.
Revenue has been growing, but they have not been good at generating profits or cash flow. Revenue is up by 28% and 85% per year over the past 5 and 8years. Revenue per Share is up by 6.8% and 27.5% per year over these periods. Last year was a year of earnings losses. I have no figures of EPS except that they are down by 21% per year using 5 year running averages over the past 4 years.
The Cash Flow has been negative some years. Cash Flow is up by 5% and 51% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. CFPS is down by 12.5% over the past 5 years and up by 4.3% per year over the past 8 years. If you look at 5 year running averages over the past 4 years, CFPS is down by 2% per year.
When you are not earning profit, you are not getting any Return on Equity. The ROE for 2013 is a negative 4.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income is worse coming in at a negative 10.4%. This would suggest that losses may be worse than they initially appear.
Debt Ratios seem fine with a Liquidity Ratio of 1.53 for 2013, Debt Ratio of 1.43 for 2013 and Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 3.30 and 2.30 for 2013. I would prefer the see the Debt Ratio a bit higher and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios a bit lower.
On a number of bases, the stock price seems relatively high, but not so much on an absolute basis. The 5 year median Price/Earnings Ratios are 2.87, 6.99 and 1.11. The current P/E Ratio is 17.27 based on a stock price of $21.42 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.24. Mind you, the past P/E Ratios are this stock are quite low. The EPS for the first quarter of 2014 was at $0.46 and this is higher than the earnings for 2012 which had positive earnings.
If you look at the 10 year Price/Book Value per Share ratio it is at 1.42. The current P/B Ratio at 1.69 is based on a stock price of $21.42 and current BVPS of $12.65. On a relative basis the P/B Ratio shows a relatively expense stock price as the P/B Ratio has increased by 20%. However, a P/B Ratio of 1.69 is not a high ratio.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I see ones of Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $22.20. This implies a total return of 6.44% with 2.80% from dividends and 3.64% from capital gains. The consensus stock price and the recommendations seem to be to be at odds with each other.
I will continue to follow this stock at the moment. However, I prefer to buy stocks that can earn profits. It remains to be seen if this company can. See my spreadsheet at agt.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Alliance Grain Traders Inc. through its subsidiaries, Alliance Pulse Processors Inc. ("Alliance") and Arbel Group ("Arbel"), is engaged in the business of sourcing and processing (cleaning, splitting, sorting and bagging) specialty crops, primarily for export markets. Alliance and its subsidiaries in Canada, U.S., Australia and Turkey handle the full range of pulses and specialty crops including lentils, peas, chickpeas, beans and canary seed through six processing plants. The company recent bought the Arbel Group of Mersin, Turkey. Its web site is here Alliance Grain Traders.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, June 30, 2014
Friday, June 27, 2014
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
I do not own this stock of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, OTC-AQUNF). This is a dividend paying utility stocks. I got it off a list of dividend paying utility stocks. Also, I own Emera Inc. and this company owns shares in Algonquin Power.
This is another old income trust company which converted to a corporation. On conversion, the dividends were cut 74% (in 2009). Since then the company has been raising dividends again and the most recent raise was in 2013 and the increase was for 9.7%.
At first when the dividends were cut, the company was able to have the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS below 100%. However, earnings have not been good over the past two years. The DPR for EPS in 2013 was at 464%. They are expected to be at 97% in 2014. Earnings are going in the right direction for the first quarter of 2014. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of March 31, 2014 and the 12 month period to December 31, 2013, EPS is up 86%.
Investors have done much better in total returns over the past 5 years than over the past 10 years. The total return for the last 5 and 10 years is at 19.74% and 3.19% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is at 5.18% and 5.84% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to capital gain is at 14.56% over the past 5 years and a capital loss of 2.65% per year over the past 10 years.
Good growth after old income trust converted to a corporation was expected as this would lower the high dividend yields to a 4 to 5% range. So it is not surprising that the last 5 years has a good return. However, future returns will be less. I guess the questions is, how much less.
The outstanding shares have increased by 22% and 12% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Share Issues, DRIP, Conversion of Debentures, Stock Options and the Employee Stock Purchase Plan.
The growth in Revenue per Share is fine, but there has not been much growth in EPS or CFPS. Revenue per Share is up 3.7% and 3.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. There was an EPS loss exactly 5 years ago. Using the 5 year running averages, EPS growth is down by 2.5% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The CFPS is down by 5% and 1.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Since the company has started, the Return on Equity has never been above 10%. In 2013 the ROE was at 2.1% and has a 5 year median value of 4.5%. The ROE for comprehensive income was at 9.8% for 2013. However, the 5 year median value for this ROE is just 1.0%.
The debt ratios are just ok. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 was 1.25. If you add in cash flow after dividends, it becomes 1.38. The Debt Ratio is consistently been good and the 2013 value is 1.73. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 3.64 and 2.10.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 23.75, 28.18 and 32.60. These ratios are only up slightly from the corresponding 10 year ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 23.06. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, I think for these are quite high P/E Ratios for a utility. This P/E Ratio of 23.06 uses the stock Price $8.07 and 2014 EPS estimate of $0.35.
I get a current Graham Price of $5.94. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.26, 1.41 and 12.55. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.36 based on a stock price of $8.07. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. However, I also think that these ratios are too high for a utility.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.49. The current ratio of 1.80 is some 21% higher and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. In this case, I find the ratios, especially the 10 year P/B Ratio to be rather reasonable. The current ratio is based on a stock price of $8.07 and current BVPS of $4.48.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price if $8.32. This implies a total return of 7.31% with 4.21% from dividends and 3.10% from capital gains. I must say that the Buy rating does not come with much conviction with such a low capital gain in 12 months.
This company is trying to be a dividend growth stock. I think that at present, the stock price is rather expensive. See my spreadsheet at aqn.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
APUC owns and operates a diversified portfolio of clean renewable electric generation and sustainable utility distribution businesses in North America. Liberty Water Co., APUC's water utility subsidiary, provides regulated water utility services. Through its wholly owned subsidiary Liberty Energy Utilities Co., APUC provides regulated electricity and natural gas distribution services. Algonquin Power Co., APUC's electric generation subsidiary, includes renewable energy facilities and thermal energy facilities. Its web site is here Algonquin Power.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This is another old income trust company which converted to a corporation. On conversion, the dividends were cut 74% (in 2009). Since then the company has been raising dividends again and the most recent raise was in 2013 and the increase was for 9.7%.
At first when the dividends were cut, the company was able to have the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS below 100%. However, earnings have not been good over the past two years. The DPR for EPS in 2013 was at 464%. They are expected to be at 97% in 2014. Earnings are going in the right direction for the first quarter of 2014. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of March 31, 2014 and the 12 month period to December 31, 2013, EPS is up 86%.
Investors have done much better in total returns over the past 5 years than over the past 10 years. The total return for the last 5 and 10 years is at 19.74% and 3.19% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is at 5.18% and 5.84% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to capital gain is at 14.56% over the past 5 years and a capital loss of 2.65% per year over the past 10 years.
Good growth after old income trust converted to a corporation was expected as this would lower the high dividend yields to a 4 to 5% range. So it is not surprising that the last 5 years has a good return. However, future returns will be less. I guess the questions is, how much less.
The outstanding shares have increased by 22% and 12% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Share Issues, DRIP, Conversion of Debentures, Stock Options and the Employee Stock Purchase Plan.
The growth in Revenue per Share is fine, but there has not been much growth in EPS or CFPS. Revenue per Share is up 3.7% and 3.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. There was an EPS loss exactly 5 years ago. Using the 5 year running averages, EPS growth is down by 2.5% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The CFPS is down by 5% and 1.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Since the company has started, the Return on Equity has never been above 10%. In 2013 the ROE was at 2.1% and has a 5 year median value of 4.5%. The ROE for comprehensive income was at 9.8% for 2013. However, the 5 year median value for this ROE is just 1.0%.
The debt ratios are just ok. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 was 1.25. If you add in cash flow after dividends, it becomes 1.38. The Debt Ratio is consistently been good and the 2013 value is 1.73. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 3.64 and 2.10.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 23.75, 28.18 and 32.60. These ratios are only up slightly from the corresponding 10 year ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 23.06. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, I think for these are quite high P/E Ratios for a utility. This P/E Ratio of 23.06 uses the stock Price $8.07 and 2014 EPS estimate of $0.35.
I get a current Graham Price of $5.94. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.26, 1.41 and 12.55. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.36 based on a stock price of $8.07. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. However, I also think that these ratios are too high for a utility.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.49. The current ratio of 1.80 is some 21% higher and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. In this case, I find the ratios, especially the 10 year P/B Ratio to be rather reasonable. The current ratio is based on a stock price of $8.07 and current BVPS of $4.48.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price if $8.32. This implies a total return of 7.31% with 4.21% from dividends and 3.10% from capital gains. I must say that the Buy rating does not come with much conviction with such a low capital gain in 12 months.
This company is trying to be a dividend growth stock. I think that at present, the stock price is rather expensive. See my spreadsheet at aqn.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
APUC owns and operates a diversified portfolio of clean renewable electric generation and sustainable utility distribution businesses in North America. Liberty Water Co., APUC's water utility subsidiary, provides regulated water utility services. Through its wholly owned subsidiary Liberty Energy Utilities Co., APUC provides regulated electricity and natural gas distribution services. Algonquin Power Co., APUC's electric generation subsidiary, includes renewable energy facilities and thermal energy facilities. Its web site is here Algonquin Power.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
Parkland Fuel Corp.
I do not own this stock of Parkland Fuel Corp. (TSX-PKI, OTC- PKIUF). I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock as it was a stock recommended by Roger Conrad in Money Show 2013.
This stock was a Limited Partnership which converted to a corporation in 2010 and in 2011 they cut their dividend by 19%. 2013 was the first year that dividends were raised after the dividend cut and the increase was for 2%.
Prior to 2011, the 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 142%. In 2012 DPR for EPS was at 84% and in 2013 it was 82%. However, analysts do expect the DPR for EPS to be just above 100% for 2014. The Dividend Payout Ratios for Cash Flow per Share was lower with a 5 year median of 62%. The DPR for CFPS for 2012 was at 50% and for 2013 was at 48%.
The current dividend yield is quite good at 5.00% currently. The dividend yield dropped to just above 5% in 2011. A drop in dividend yield is typical for old Limited Partnerships that convert to corporations. Dividend yields did and were expected to drop.
Shareholders have done quite well over the past 5 and 10 years with total return at 16.18% and 22.32% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to capital gain was at 6.21% and 11.1% and the portion of the total return attributable to dividends was at 6.97% and 11.22%. Note that on a go forward basis, dividend yields or return will be lower.
The outstanding shares have increased by 7.7% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares were increased because of DRIP, Stock Options, Share Issues and Debenture Conversion. Outstanding shares were decreased due to Buy Backs.
The growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow has been decent. Revenue per Share has grown at 10.8% and 17.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has grown at 7.4% and 8.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 6.4% and 11.0% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Return on Equity has been above 10% each year for the past 10 years. The ROE for 2013 was 21% and the 5 year median ROE was at 21%. The ROE on comprehensive income is basically the same.
The debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 1.56. The Debt Ratio for 2013 is 1.53. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2013 are 2.89 and 1.89.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 11.48, 14.29 and 16.02. These are slightly higher than the same 10 year P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 20.51 based on a stock price of $20.82 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.03. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive. On an absolute basis, a P/E of 20.51 is in a reasonable range. (A P/E of 10 or below says a stock is cheap and a P/E of 30 and above says that the stock is expensive, basically, but this can depend on the type of company we are looking at.)
I get a Graham Price of $12.24. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.03, 1.29 and 1.59. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.70. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive. On an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of 1.70 says that the stock price is expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 3.16. The current P/B Ratio is 3.22 a value just 2% higher and this stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis a P/B Ratio is 3.22 shows a stock price that is a little expensive. A good P/B Ratio is 1.50.
I cannot do any test on the dividend yield as yields have come down significantly since the company became a corporation. This was an expected result of a change to a corporation. When I briefly checked the P/S Ratio that stock price test shows that the stock price is relatively cheap. When I briefly checked the P/CF Ratio that stock price test shows that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $21.90. This implies a total return of 10.18% with 5.19% from capital gains and 5% from dividends.
The stock price could be reasonable, but testing shows a mixed bag. This stock would be considered to be a dividend growth stocks. There is nothing to suggest they plan anything else. See my spreadsheet at pki.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Parkland Fuel Corporation is a marketer and distributor of fuels, managing a nationwide network of sales channels for retail, commercial, wholesale and home heating fuel customers. Its web site is here Parkland Fuel Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This stock was a Limited Partnership which converted to a corporation in 2010 and in 2011 they cut their dividend by 19%. 2013 was the first year that dividends were raised after the dividend cut and the increase was for 2%.
Prior to 2011, the 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 142%. In 2012 DPR for EPS was at 84% and in 2013 it was 82%. However, analysts do expect the DPR for EPS to be just above 100% for 2014. The Dividend Payout Ratios for Cash Flow per Share was lower with a 5 year median of 62%. The DPR for CFPS for 2012 was at 50% and for 2013 was at 48%.
The current dividend yield is quite good at 5.00% currently. The dividend yield dropped to just above 5% in 2011. A drop in dividend yield is typical for old Limited Partnerships that convert to corporations. Dividend yields did and were expected to drop.
Shareholders have done quite well over the past 5 and 10 years with total return at 16.18% and 22.32% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to capital gain was at 6.21% and 11.1% and the portion of the total return attributable to dividends was at 6.97% and 11.22%. Note that on a go forward basis, dividend yields or return will be lower.
The outstanding shares have increased by 7.7% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares were increased because of DRIP, Stock Options, Share Issues and Debenture Conversion. Outstanding shares were decreased due to Buy Backs.
The growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow has been decent. Revenue per Share has grown at 10.8% and 17.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has grown at 7.4% and 8.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 6.4% and 11.0% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Return on Equity has been above 10% each year for the past 10 years. The ROE for 2013 was 21% and the 5 year median ROE was at 21%. The ROE on comprehensive income is basically the same.
The debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 1.56. The Debt Ratio for 2013 is 1.53. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2013 are 2.89 and 1.89.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 11.48, 14.29 and 16.02. These are slightly higher than the same 10 year P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 20.51 based on a stock price of $20.82 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.03. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive. On an absolute basis, a P/E of 20.51 is in a reasonable range. (A P/E of 10 or below says a stock is cheap and a P/E of 30 and above says that the stock is expensive, basically, but this can depend on the type of company we are looking at.)
I get a Graham Price of $12.24. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.03, 1.29 and 1.59. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.70. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive. On an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of 1.70 says that the stock price is expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 3.16. The current P/B Ratio is 3.22 a value just 2% higher and this stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis a P/B Ratio is 3.22 shows a stock price that is a little expensive. A good P/B Ratio is 1.50.
I cannot do any test on the dividend yield as yields have come down significantly since the company became a corporation. This was an expected result of a change to a corporation. When I briefly checked the P/S Ratio that stock price test shows that the stock price is relatively cheap. When I briefly checked the P/CF Ratio that stock price test shows that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $21.90. This implies a total return of 10.18% with 5.19% from capital gains and 5% from dividends.
The stock price could be reasonable, but testing shows a mixed bag. This stock would be considered to be a dividend growth stocks. There is nothing to suggest they plan anything else. See my spreadsheet at pki.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Parkland Fuel Corporation is a marketer and distributor of fuels, managing a nationwide network of sales channels for retail, commercial, wholesale and home heating fuel customers. Its web site is here Parkland Fuel Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
CI Financial 2
On my other blog I am today writing about the fight about Canadian Pipelines continue...
I do not own this stock of CI Financial (TSX-CIX, OTC-CIFAF). I started to follow this stock originally because it was a Mutual Fund company. People talked about it being easier to make money from buying a Mutual Fund company than buying Mutual Funds. In June 2014, MPL communications called this stock a Buy and advised that they were adding it to their list of Key Stock for the Investment reporter.
When I look at insider trading, I find some $30.3M of insider selling and no insider buying. Although $30.3M sounds like a lot, it is only 0.31% (that is a way less than 1%) of the outstanding stock. In 2013 the outstanding shares were increase by 1.123M shares in connection with sock options. These shares had a book value of $10.2M. These numbers of shares were worth $39.7M at the end of 2013. Also, this numbers of shares are only 0.39% of the outstanding shares of this company.
Insiders not only have stock options, but they have other stock option like vehicles called Deferred Equity Units. There is also insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $32.8M, an officer having shares worth around $18.2M, a director having shares worth around $164.2M and the Chairman having shares worth around $42.7M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.75, 17.83 and 20.10. These are similar to the 10 year P/E Ratios. The current stock price has a P/E Ratio of 18.29 based on a stock price of $34.56 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.89. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a Graham price of $16.67. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.48, 1.67 and 1.92. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.07 based on a stock price of $34.56. This stock price test suggests that the stock is expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 3.69. The current P/B Ratio is 5.29 based on a stock price of $34.56 and current BVPS of $6.53. This stock price test suggests that the stock is expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.11% and the current dividend yield is 3.47% based on a stock price of $34.56 and a dividend of $1.20. The current dividend yield is some 15% lower than the 5 year median dividend yield and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is still within the reasonable range, however it is in the high end of this range.
The historical average dividend yield is 2.97% a value some 17% below the current dividend yield. The historical median dividend yield is lower still at 2.92% a value some 19% below the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and almost cheap.
Well, we have a rather mixed bag when it comes to judging the current stock price. I looked at the Price/Sales Ratio and the Price/CFPS ratios and they show that the stock is expensive. However, my favourite test is the historical dividend yield tests and they show reasonable. I will go with that.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Holder Ratings. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and this is the consensus recommendation. The consensus 12 month stock price is $40.00 and this implies a total return of 19.21% with 3.47% from dividends and 15.74% from capital gains.
This company's had its 12 month stock price raised from 40 to $41 by, RBC while they kept the rating of outperform (or Buy) rating on this stock. There are other analysts' ratings in this article. An article in the Financial Post talks about how CI Financial gains from BNS selling their holding in this company. The Dividend Blogger talks about this stock in a recent post.
I am inclined to look at the current stock price as reasonable as per my note above. See my spreadsheet at cix.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, June 245, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
CI Financial Corp. is a diversified wealth management firm and one of Canada's largest investment fund companies. CI is an Independent and Canadian-owned company. This company promotes and manages mutual funds and other investment products through its wholly-owned subsidiaries of CI Investments Inc., and Assante Wealth Management. Its web site is here CI Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of CI Financial (TSX-CIX, OTC-CIFAF). I started to follow this stock originally because it was a Mutual Fund company. People talked about it being easier to make money from buying a Mutual Fund company than buying Mutual Funds. In June 2014, MPL communications called this stock a Buy and advised that they were adding it to their list of Key Stock for the Investment reporter.
When I look at insider trading, I find some $30.3M of insider selling and no insider buying. Although $30.3M sounds like a lot, it is only 0.31% (that is a way less than 1%) of the outstanding stock. In 2013 the outstanding shares were increase by 1.123M shares in connection with sock options. These shares had a book value of $10.2M. These numbers of shares were worth $39.7M at the end of 2013. Also, this numbers of shares are only 0.39% of the outstanding shares of this company.
Insiders not only have stock options, but they have other stock option like vehicles called Deferred Equity Units. There is also insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $32.8M, an officer having shares worth around $18.2M, a director having shares worth around $164.2M and the Chairman having shares worth around $42.7M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.75, 17.83 and 20.10. These are similar to the 10 year P/E Ratios. The current stock price has a P/E Ratio of 18.29 based on a stock price of $34.56 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.89. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a Graham price of $16.67. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.48, 1.67 and 1.92. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.07 based on a stock price of $34.56. This stock price test suggests that the stock is expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 3.69. The current P/B Ratio is 5.29 based on a stock price of $34.56 and current BVPS of $6.53. This stock price test suggests that the stock is expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.11% and the current dividend yield is 3.47% based on a stock price of $34.56 and a dividend of $1.20. The current dividend yield is some 15% lower than the 5 year median dividend yield and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is still within the reasonable range, however it is in the high end of this range.
The historical average dividend yield is 2.97% a value some 17% below the current dividend yield. The historical median dividend yield is lower still at 2.92% a value some 19% below the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and almost cheap.
Well, we have a rather mixed bag when it comes to judging the current stock price. I looked at the Price/Sales Ratio and the Price/CFPS ratios and they show that the stock is expensive. However, my favourite test is the historical dividend yield tests and they show reasonable. I will go with that.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Holder Ratings. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and this is the consensus recommendation. The consensus 12 month stock price is $40.00 and this implies a total return of 19.21% with 3.47% from dividends and 15.74% from capital gains.
This company's had its 12 month stock price raised from 40 to $41 by, RBC while they kept the rating of outperform (or Buy) rating on this stock. There are other analysts' ratings in this article. An article in the Financial Post talks about how CI Financial gains from BNS selling their holding in this company. The Dividend Blogger talks about this stock in a recent post.
I am inclined to look at the current stock price as reasonable as per my note above. See my spreadsheet at cix.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, June 245, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
CI Financial Corp. is a diversified wealth management firm and one of Canada's largest investment fund companies. CI is an Independent and Canadian-owned company. This company promotes and manages mutual funds and other investment products through its wholly-owned subsidiaries of CI Investments Inc., and Assante Wealth Management. Its web site is here CI Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
CI Financial
I do not own this stock of CI Financial (TSX-CIX, OTC-CIFAF). I started to follow this stock originally because it was a Mutual Fund company. People talked about it being easier to make money from buying a Mutual Fund company than buying Mutual Funds. In June 2014, MPL communications called this stock a Buy and advised that they were adding it to their list of Key Stock for the Investment reporter.
This stock has been publicly traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange since June 1994. When they became a Unit Trust in 2006, dividends were significantly increased, but these dividends proved to be unsustainable when it became a corporation, so dividends where decreased. They changed back to a corporation in 2009 and since that time, they have been increasing their dividends.
When they changed to a corporation the dividends fell about 89%. Since then dividends are up some 67%. The most recent increase occurred in 2014 with a dividend rise of 5.3%. If you look at 5 and 10 years grow, dividends are down 12.8% per year over the past 5 years, but are up by 24% per year over the past 10 years. Since dividends started to grow again in 2010, they are up by 36.5% per year.
Over the past 5 and 10 years, total return is at 13.05% and 13.8% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 9.45% and 7.71% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 3.60% and 6.08% per year.
Dividend yield was quite low when this company first went public (around 1% and often below 1%). However dividend yield started to climb when it became an income trust company and reached a peak in 2009 when dividends were cut. They are currently around 3.47% with a 5 year median of 4.11%.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.6% and 1.9% per year over the last 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and have decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow is much better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years.
Revenue per Share is up by 2% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 yeas using the 5 year running averages. Earnings per Share are down by 1.5% and up by 56.55% using the 5 year running averages. The 10 years value is so high because of a loss year in 2002. Earnings per Share is down by 1.2% and up by 17.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using values exactly 5 and 10 years old and 2013 values.
Cash Flows per Share are up by 0.7% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you use the 5 year running averages, Cash Flows per Share is up by 0.3% and 4% per year over these periods.
Over the past 5 years the Return on Equity has been higher than 10%. The ROE for 2013 is at 23.4% and the 5 year median ROE is at 21%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is at 23.7% for 2013 and has a 5 year median ROE of 21.1%. (The ROE on Comprehensive Income just points out the earnings should be of good quality.)
The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is at 0.73 and if you add in cash flow after dividends, this becomes 1.14. If you exclude long term debt due this year, the Liquidity Ratio becomes 1.14 and the ratio would be 2.01 if you add in cash flow after dividends.
The Debt Ratios have always been good and the one for 2013 is at 2.44. The 5 year median Debt Ratio is at 2.15. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.70 and 0.70 for 2013.
This is a Mutual Fund company that is a dividend growth stock. Analysts expect it to do well in 2014. With MPL communications adding it to their portfolio shows confidence in the future of this company. See my spreadsheet at cix.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, June 25, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
CI Financial Corp. is a diversified wealth management firm and one of Canada's largest investment fund companies. CI is an Independent and Canadian-owned company. This company promotes and manages mutual funds and other investment products through its wholly-owned subsidiaries of CI Investments Inc., and Assante Wealth Management. Its web site is here CI Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This stock has been publicly traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange since June 1994. When they became a Unit Trust in 2006, dividends were significantly increased, but these dividends proved to be unsustainable when it became a corporation, so dividends where decreased. They changed back to a corporation in 2009 and since that time, they have been increasing their dividends.
When they changed to a corporation the dividends fell about 89%. Since then dividends are up some 67%. The most recent increase occurred in 2014 with a dividend rise of 5.3%. If you look at 5 and 10 years grow, dividends are down 12.8% per year over the past 5 years, but are up by 24% per year over the past 10 years. Since dividends started to grow again in 2010, they are up by 36.5% per year.
Over the past 5 and 10 years, total return is at 13.05% and 13.8% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 9.45% and 7.71% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 3.60% and 6.08% per year.
Dividend yield was quite low when this company first went public (around 1% and often below 1%). However dividend yield started to climb when it became an income trust company and reached a peak in 2009 when dividends were cut. They are currently around 3.47% with a 5 year median of 4.11%.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.6% and 1.9% per year over the last 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and have decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow is much better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years.
Revenue per Share is up by 2% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 yeas using the 5 year running averages. Earnings per Share are down by 1.5% and up by 56.55% using the 5 year running averages. The 10 years value is so high because of a loss year in 2002. Earnings per Share is down by 1.2% and up by 17.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using values exactly 5 and 10 years old and 2013 values.
Cash Flows per Share are up by 0.7% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you use the 5 year running averages, Cash Flows per Share is up by 0.3% and 4% per year over these periods.
Over the past 5 years the Return on Equity has been higher than 10%. The ROE for 2013 is at 23.4% and the 5 year median ROE is at 21%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is at 23.7% for 2013 and has a 5 year median ROE of 21.1%. (The ROE on Comprehensive Income just points out the earnings should be of good quality.)
The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is at 0.73 and if you add in cash flow after dividends, this becomes 1.14. If you exclude long term debt due this year, the Liquidity Ratio becomes 1.14 and the ratio would be 2.01 if you add in cash flow after dividends.
The Debt Ratios have always been good and the one for 2013 is at 2.44. The 5 year median Debt Ratio is at 2.15. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.70 and 0.70 for 2013.
This is a Mutual Fund company that is a dividend growth stock. Analysts expect it to do well in 2014. With MPL communications adding it to their portfolio shows confidence in the future of this company. See my spreadsheet at cix.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, June 25, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
CI Financial Corp. is a diversified wealth management firm and one of Canada's largest investment fund companies. CI is an Independent and Canadian-owned company. This company promotes and manages mutual funds and other investment products through its wholly-owned subsidiaries of CI Investments Inc., and Assante Wealth Management. Its web site is here CI Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, June 23, 2014
Canexus Corporation
On my other blog I am today writing about keeping track of my dividend payments continue...
I do not own this stock of Canexus Corporation (TSX-CUS, OTC-CXUSF). I started to follow this stock in 2012 after reading that it was part of Sentry Small/Mid Cap Income Fund. It is a small cap that pays good dividends. See stocks in this fund on G&M. Sentry home site is here. This stock was also mentioned by Michael Decter in May of 2012. Michael Decter is president and CEO of LDIC Inc.
This is an old income trust company that transitioned to a corporation in 2011. They did not reduce their dividends then, but they probably should have. What they did do was change the dividend payment period from a monthly mode to a cycle 1 mode. They have decreased their dividends in 2014 by almost 27%.
Their Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. They got their DPR ratios for CFPS down to 64% and 67% in 2011 and 2012. However it was back being too high in 2013 at 111%. Analysts expect the DPR for CFPS to be even higher in 2014 at 125% and only to move to a better ratio of around 64% in 2015.
The DPRs for Earnings per Share has basically always been too high. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is at 176%. The DPR for EPS for 2013 is at 912%. It is expected to lower in 2014 but still far too high at 476%. For 2015 it is still expected, even with the dividend cut to be at 125% for 2015. They should not be paying out dividends they cannot afford.
They have increased their outstanding shares by 36% and 20% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. This masked the fact that the company really is not growing. For example revenue growth looks to be at 3% and 4% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. However, Revenue is down by 24% and 14% per year on a revenue per share basis.
Cash Flow growth looks good at 34% and 33% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. However, Cash Flow per Share is down by 2% and up by 9% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. There is a big difference when you look at growth on a per share basis. . There is no growth in EPS either.
So, on to the next thing I do not like and that is the debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is at 0.75. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is 0.71. When this ratio is below 1.00, it means that current liabilities cannot be covered by current assets. This is not good.
The Debt Ratio is too low and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high. The Debt Ratio for 2013 is 1.40 and I prefer this to be at least 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 3.49 and 2.49 for 2013. I would prefer them to be below 2.00 and 1.00 respectively.
The last thing I do not like is the Return on Equity. It has been above 10% only twice in the last 8 years. The ROE for 2013 was a miserable 1.1%. However, the ROE on comprehensive income was almost decent coming in at 8.3%. (This means that the earnings are of better quality than they might first appear to be at.)
To me this is not a desirable stock for my portfolio. I do not think that they should pay dividends until they get their act together. I will continue following it for now to see how it makes out. See my spreadsheet at cus.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all I follow.
Canexus Corporation is engaged in the production of sodium chlorate and chlor-alkali products, and operates a hydrocarbon terminal. They have four plants in Canada and two at one site in Brazil. Its web site is here Canexus.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Canexus Corporation (TSX-CUS, OTC-CXUSF). I started to follow this stock in 2012 after reading that it was part of Sentry Small/Mid Cap Income Fund. It is a small cap that pays good dividends. See stocks in this fund on G&M. Sentry home site is here. This stock was also mentioned by Michael Decter in May of 2012. Michael Decter is president and CEO of LDIC Inc.
This is an old income trust company that transitioned to a corporation in 2011. They did not reduce their dividends then, but they probably should have. What they did do was change the dividend payment period from a monthly mode to a cycle 1 mode. They have decreased their dividends in 2014 by almost 27%.
Their Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. They got their DPR ratios for CFPS down to 64% and 67% in 2011 and 2012. However it was back being too high in 2013 at 111%. Analysts expect the DPR for CFPS to be even higher in 2014 at 125% and only to move to a better ratio of around 64% in 2015.
The DPRs for Earnings per Share has basically always been too high. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is at 176%. The DPR for EPS for 2013 is at 912%. It is expected to lower in 2014 but still far too high at 476%. For 2015 it is still expected, even with the dividend cut to be at 125% for 2015. They should not be paying out dividends they cannot afford.
They have increased their outstanding shares by 36% and 20% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. This masked the fact that the company really is not growing. For example revenue growth looks to be at 3% and 4% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. However, Revenue is down by 24% and 14% per year on a revenue per share basis.
Cash Flow growth looks good at 34% and 33% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. However, Cash Flow per Share is down by 2% and up by 9% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. There is a big difference when you look at growth on a per share basis. . There is no growth in EPS either.
So, on to the next thing I do not like and that is the debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is at 0.75. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is 0.71. When this ratio is below 1.00, it means that current liabilities cannot be covered by current assets. This is not good.
The Debt Ratio is too low and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high. The Debt Ratio for 2013 is 1.40 and I prefer this to be at least 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 3.49 and 2.49 for 2013. I would prefer them to be below 2.00 and 1.00 respectively.
The last thing I do not like is the Return on Equity. It has been above 10% only twice in the last 8 years. The ROE for 2013 was a miserable 1.1%. However, the ROE on comprehensive income was almost decent coming in at 8.3%. (This means that the earnings are of better quality than they might first appear to be at.)
To me this is not a desirable stock for my portfolio. I do not think that they should pay dividends until they get their act together. I will continue following it for now to see how it makes out. See my spreadsheet at cus.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all I follow.
Canexus Corporation is engaged in the production of sodium chlorate and chlor-alkali products, and operates a hydrocarbon terminal. They have four plants in Canada and two at one site in Brazil. Its web site is here Canexus.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, June 20, 2014
Power Corp of Canada 2
I do not own this stock of Power Corp of Canada (TSX-POW, OTC- PWCDF). I started following this stock because it was on the Dividend Achievers, the Dividend Aristocrats lists and also on Mike Higgs' list. I would not buy it because I have shares in Power Financial, which this company controls.
When I look at insider trading, I find $10.5M of insider selling and $10.5M of net insider selling. There is a very small amount of insider buying. This is only 0.07% of the market cap of this stock. There are not only stock options but there are other stock options type vehicles called Performance Deferred Share Units, Deferred Share Units and Performance Share Units.
No matter how you look at stock options for the two new Co-CEO, Co-Chairman of Andre and Paul Jr. they have been given a lot of stock options worth a lot of money. They stock options alone are worth around 1% of the market cap of this stock. Considering that the market cap for this company is over $13B, this is a lot of money.
Although the Desmarais family still has around $1.5B of subordinate shares in this company, they have been selling off shares. See link below. The Desmarais family also owns all the outstanding multiple voting shares (10 votes per share).
In 2013 the outstanding shares were increased by 254,915 for stock options which had a book value of $7M and this number of shares was worth $8.1M at the end of 2013. These options are 0.06% of the outstanding shares and are a relatively small number.
One thing that I should have pointed out but forgot to yesterday was that the Intangible and Goodwill assets under this company were equal to 99% of the company's market cap. This is not a good thing. When the Intangible and Goodwill assets reach over 100% of the market cap, they are often written off. So this is a cautionary note. (Note that the Intangible and Goodwill assets were at 127.20% and 118.37% of market cap in 2011 and 2012 and they were not written off. However, this is still a cautionary note.)
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio are 12.18, 13.93 and 15.29. The current P/E Ratio is 11.18. (Note that the 10 year median low P/E Ratio is 11.23.) This ratio is based on a stock price of $29.64 and 2014 earnings estimate of $2.65. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $37.05. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 0.98 and 1.17. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.80 based on a stock price of $29.64. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.82 and the current P/B Ratio is 29% lower at 1.29. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.61% and this is some 15% higher than the current dividend yield of 3.91%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but towards the right end of the reasonableness range. That is towards the expensive end of the range.
The historical average dividend yield is 3.13% a value 25% lower than the current dividend yield of 3.91% and this suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. The historical median dividend yield is 2.25% a value some 73% below the current dividend yield and this suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Note that the historical high dividend yield is 4.62%, which is a value above the current dividend yield so on an historical basis, the stock has been cheaper. I also want to point out that these historical highs in dividend yield have all been made since 2008 when we have the last economic crisis. Dividend yields peaked in 2009 and since have been travelling south.
The analysts' recommendations are either a Buy or a Hold. The vast majority of the recommendations are a buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $34.80. This implies a total return of 21.32% with 3.91% from dividends and 17.41% with capital gains.
In January of 2014 there is an article in the Financial Post talking about the Desmarais family disposing of a major block of shares in Power Corp. This is the third sale by this family in the last 6 years. Looking at an article talking about the technical analysis of this stock, Lou Schizas at the Globe and Mail says that the two year bull market for this stock may be at an end. Recently Michael Ugulini at the Motley Fool has given this stock some praise.
I will not be buying this stock for the simple reason that I hold Power Financial Corp (TSXPWF) stock. From my analysis, it would seem that the stock price is cheap. See my spreadsheet at pow.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, June 19, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Power Corporation of Canada is a diversified international management and holding company with interests in companies in the financial services, communications and other business sectors in North America, Europe and Asia. Some of it subsidiary companies include Power Financial, the Pargesa group and Gesca and Square Victoria Digital Properties. Its web site is here Power Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find $10.5M of insider selling and $10.5M of net insider selling. There is a very small amount of insider buying. This is only 0.07% of the market cap of this stock. There are not only stock options but there are other stock options type vehicles called Performance Deferred Share Units, Deferred Share Units and Performance Share Units.
No matter how you look at stock options for the two new Co-CEO, Co-Chairman of Andre and Paul Jr. they have been given a lot of stock options worth a lot of money. They stock options alone are worth around 1% of the market cap of this stock. Considering that the market cap for this company is over $13B, this is a lot of money.
Although the Desmarais family still has around $1.5B of subordinate shares in this company, they have been selling off shares. See link below. The Desmarais family also owns all the outstanding multiple voting shares (10 votes per share).
In 2013 the outstanding shares were increased by 254,915 for stock options which had a book value of $7M and this number of shares was worth $8.1M at the end of 2013. These options are 0.06% of the outstanding shares and are a relatively small number.
One thing that I should have pointed out but forgot to yesterday was that the Intangible and Goodwill assets under this company were equal to 99% of the company's market cap. This is not a good thing. When the Intangible and Goodwill assets reach over 100% of the market cap, they are often written off. So this is a cautionary note. (Note that the Intangible and Goodwill assets were at 127.20% and 118.37% of market cap in 2011 and 2012 and they were not written off. However, this is still a cautionary note.)
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio are 12.18, 13.93 and 15.29. The current P/E Ratio is 11.18. (Note that the 10 year median low P/E Ratio is 11.23.) This ratio is based on a stock price of $29.64 and 2014 earnings estimate of $2.65. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $37.05. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 0.98 and 1.17. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.80 based on a stock price of $29.64. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.82 and the current P/B Ratio is 29% lower at 1.29. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.61% and this is some 15% higher than the current dividend yield of 3.91%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but towards the right end of the reasonableness range. That is towards the expensive end of the range.
The historical average dividend yield is 3.13% a value 25% lower than the current dividend yield of 3.91% and this suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. The historical median dividend yield is 2.25% a value some 73% below the current dividend yield and this suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Note that the historical high dividend yield is 4.62%, which is a value above the current dividend yield so on an historical basis, the stock has been cheaper. I also want to point out that these historical highs in dividend yield have all been made since 2008 when we have the last economic crisis. Dividend yields peaked in 2009 and since have been travelling south.
The analysts' recommendations are either a Buy or a Hold. The vast majority of the recommendations are a buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $34.80. This implies a total return of 21.32% with 3.91% from dividends and 17.41% with capital gains.
In January of 2014 there is an article in the Financial Post talking about the Desmarais family disposing of a major block of shares in Power Corp. This is the third sale by this family in the last 6 years. Looking at an article talking about the technical analysis of this stock, Lou Schizas at the Globe and Mail says that the two year bull market for this stock may be at an end. Recently Michael Ugulini at the Motley Fool has given this stock some praise.
I will not be buying this stock for the simple reason that I hold Power Financial Corp (TSXPWF) stock. From my analysis, it would seem that the stock price is cheap. See my spreadsheet at pow.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, June 19, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Power Corporation of Canada is a diversified international management and holding company with interests in companies in the financial services, communications and other business sectors in North America, Europe and Asia. Some of it subsidiary companies include Power Financial, the Pargesa group and Gesca and Square Victoria Digital Properties. Its web site is here Power Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Power Corp of Canada
I do not own this stock of Power Corp of Canada (TSX-POW, OTC- PWCDF). I started following this stock because it was on the Dividend Achievers, the Dividend Aristocrats lists and also on Mike Higgs' list. I would not buy it because I have shares in Power Financial, which this company controls.
This stock used to be a dividend growth stock. However, the company is heavily invested in insurance companies and mutual fund companies and these companies have had a hard time since 2008. Most of these companies have discontinued dividend increases. Some analysts have thought that the company will raise dividends in 2014 however they have so far paid two dividends and have not yet mentioned any dividend increase.
Dividend Payout Ratios were lower before 2008. The DPR for EPS was around 30% to 35%. They hit a peak in 2009 at 83%. In 2013 the DPR for EPS was 56%. It is expected to be around 44% in 2014. Before 2008 the DPR for CFPS was around 12%. This hit a peak in 2008 at 14% and for 2013 it was around 9.6%.
The stock price is down some 7% since the end of 2013. This shows up in the total return to date which is quite a bit lower than it was to the end of 2013. The total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 4.24% and 3.11% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 3.95% and 3.56% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gain or loss is a gain of 0.29% over the past 5 years and a 0.45% loss per year over the past 10%.
This shows up one of the strengths of dividend paying stock. These sorts of stocks can retain their value. Basically all the total return for some time now has been in the dividends paid. For the risk adverse investors, dividend paying stocks over the long term can give some security and stability. Mind you, the stock has not gained much but I feel that it will again be a dividend growth stock. I just do not know when this will happen.
The outstanding shares have not changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to Buy Backs. For this stock revenue growth has been low; earnings growth is not good; but cash flow has been growing.
Revenue per Share has grown at the rate of 1.5% and 6.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. EPS has decreased by 4.8% and increased by 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. Cash Flow per Share has increased 4% and 16.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages.
The Return on Equity was below 10% twice in the last 5 years. The ROE for 2013 is at 10.2% and the 5 year median ROE is 10.2%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2013 was much better at 18.9%. However, the 5 year median ROE for comprehensive income is much lower at 8.5%.
The Liquidity Ratio is good for this company at 2.29 for 2013. However, this ratio is not very important for financial companies. The Debt Ratio at 1.09 is fine for a financial company. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are usually high for financial companies but they are still very high for this company and have been for the last 3 years. The ratios for 2013 are at 32.69 and 29.91. Prior to 2008 they were at a more acceptable level around 15.00 and 12.00, respectively.
This company has been making progress since the financial crisis of 2008. They have done better in growing earnings and cash flow than revenue over the past few years. However, analysts' feel that revenue will grow this year and if you compare the 12 months to the end of 2013 and to the end of the first quarter, revenue is up by 9.3%.
I will not be investing in this company as I have shares in Power Financial Corp. which is a subsidiary of Power Corp. I will continue to track this stock. This is because I own shares in Power Financial Corp and because my son has stock in Power Corp. See my spreadsheet at pow.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, June 20, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Power Corporation of Canada is a diversified international management and holding company with interests in companies in the financial services, communications and other business sectors in North America, Europe and Asia. Some of it subsidiary companies include Power Financial, the Pargesa group and Gesca and Square Victoria Digital Properties. Its web site is here Power Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This stock used to be a dividend growth stock. However, the company is heavily invested in insurance companies and mutual fund companies and these companies have had a hard time since 2008. Most of these companies have discontinued dividend increases. Some analysts have thought that the company will raise dividends in 2014 however they have so far paid two dividends and have not yet mentioned any dividend increase.
Dividend Payout Ratios were lower before 2008. The DPR for EPS was around 30% to 35%. They hit a peak in 2009 at 83%. In 2013 the DPR for EPS was 56%. It is expected to be around 44% in 2014. Before 2008 the DPR for CFPS was around 12%. This hit a peak in 2008 at 14% and for 2013 it was around 9.6%.
The stock price is down some 7% since the end of 2013. This shows up in the total return to date which is quite a bit lower than it was to the end of 2013. The total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 4.24% and 3.11% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 3.95% and 3.56% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gain or loss is a gain of 0.29% over the past 5 years and a 0.45% loss per year over the past 10%.
This shows up one of the strengths of dividend paying stock. These sorts of stocks can retain their value. Basically all the total return for some time now has been in the dividends paid. For the risk adverse investors, dividend paying stocks over the long term can give some security and stability. Mind you, the stock has not gained much but I feel that it will again be a dividend growth stock. I just do not know when this will happen.
The outstanding shares have not changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to Buy Backs. For this stock revenue growth has been low; earnings growth is not good; but cash flow has been growing.
Revenue per Share has grown at the rate of 1.5% and 6.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. EPS has decreased by 4.8% and increased by 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. Cash Flow per Share has increased 4% and 16.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages.
The Return on Equity was below 10% twice in the last 5 years. The ROE for 2013 is at 10.2% and the 5 year median ROE is 10.2%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2013 was much better at 18.9%. However, the 5 year median ROE for comprehensive income is much lower at 8.5%.
The Liquidity Ratio is good for this company at 2.29 for 2013. However, this ratio is not very important for financial companies. The Debt Ratio at 1.09 is fine for a financial company. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are usually high for financial companies but they are still very high for this company and have been for the last 3 years. The ratios for 2013 are at 32.69 and 29.91. Prior to 2008 they were at a more acceptable level around 15.00 and 12.00, respectively.
This company has been making progress since the financial crisis of 2008. They have done better in growing earnings and cash flow than revenue over the past few years. However, analysts' feel that revenue will grow this year and if you compare the 12 months to the end of 2013 and to the end of the first quarter, revenue is up by 9.3%.
I will not be investing in this company as I have shares in Power Financial Corp. which is a subsidiary of Power Corp. I will continue to track this stock. This is because I own shares in Power Financial Corp and because my son has stock in Power Corp. See my spreadsheet at pow.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, June 20, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Power Corporation of Canada is a diversified international management and holding company with interests in companies in the financial services, communications and other business sectors in North America, Europe and Asia. Some of it subsidiary companies include Power Financial, the Pargesa group and Gesca and Square Victoria Digital Properties. Its web site is here Power Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
IGM Financial Inc. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about whether Canadian Banks are currently a good buy continue...
I do not own this stock of IGM Financial Inc. (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF). I am following this stock because I used to own this stock. I originally bought this stock to replace AGF Management (TSX-AGF.B). IGM was known as a dividend growth stock and it was on a lot of lists of good stocks, including Mike Higgs' and Dividend Aristocrats. I sold this 2011 because I had Power Financial, of which this company is partially owned by, and I want to rationalize my portfolio.
When I look at insider trading I find only insider selling with insider selling at just $1.2M. This is a very small amount of insider selling. Not only is there stock options but there is other option type vehicles called Senior Executive Share Units, Executive Performance Share Units and Deferred Share Units.
There does seem to be a lot of outstanding stock options. However, the outstanding shares were increased by just over 1.5M shares with a book value of $66.7M and this number of shares were worth $86.8M at the end of 2013. The percentage of outstanding shares going to stock options is less than 1% of outstanding shares and this is a rather normal percentage for a company giving out stock options.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.40, 14.80 and 16.30. These are lower than the 10 year ratios which are 13.47, 15.28 and 17.20. The current P/E Ratio is 15.14 based on a stock price of $51.70 and 2014 EPS estimate of $3.36. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a current Graham Price of $37.20. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.17, 1.32 and 1.57. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.39 based on a stock price of $37.20. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.72. The current P/B Ratio is 2.82 based on a stock price of $37.20 and current PBPS of $18.31. The current P/B Ratio is just 3.8% higher than the 10 year median ratio and this stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.02% and this is some 17% above the current dividend yield of 4.16%. This this stock test suggests that the stock price is getting relatively expensive. (Do not forget that it is desirable that the current dividend yield be higher than the 5 year median dividend yield.)
However, on an historical basis, the average dividend yield is 3.47% and this is below the current dividend yield by 20%. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Also, the historical median dividend yield is even lower at 3.33% a value some 25% lower than the current dividend yield and this stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $59.80 and this implies a total return of 11.93% with 4.16% from dividends and 7.77% from capital gains.
The Globe & Mail had a recent article from Jeff Young about his current picks and IGM Financial was one of them. The Sys-Con Mediasite talks about net sales and increase in Assets under Management for this company.
Most of my stock testing shows that the stock price is reasonable. On an historical dividend yield basis it is cheap. Some analysts expect to see a dividend increase for 2014 and this would make this stock a better buy. However, the company has not announced any increases and two dividends for 2014 have already been paid. See my spreadsheet at igm.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, June 17, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. IGM Financial Inc. is a member of the Power Financial Corporation group of companies. Its web site is here IGM Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of IGM Financial Inc. (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF). I am following this stock because I used to own this stock. I originally bought this stock to replace AGF Management (TSX-AGF.B). IGM was known as a dividend growth stock and it was on a lot of lists of good stocks, including Mike Higgs' and Dividend Aristocrats. I sold this 2011 because I had Power Financial, of which this company is partially owned by, and I want to rationalize my portfolio.
When I look at insider trading I find only insider selling with insider selling at just $1.2M. This is a very small amount of insider selling. Not only is there stock options but there is other option type vehicles called Senior Executive Share Units, Executive Performance Share Units and Deferred Share Units.
There does seem to be a lot of outstanding stock options. However, the outstanding shares were increased by just over 1.5M shares with a book value of $66.7M and this number of shares were worth $86.8M at the end of 2013. The percentage of outstanding shares going to stock options is less than 1% of outstanding shares and this is a rather normal percentage for a company giving out stock options.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.40, 14.80 and 16.30. These are lower than the 10 year ratios which are 13.47, 15.28 and 17.20. The current P/E Ratio is 15.14 based on a stock price of $51.70 and 2014 EPS estimate of $3.36. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a current Graham Price of $37.20. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.17, 1.32 and 1.57. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.39 based on a stock price of $37.20. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.72. The current P/B Ratio is 2.82 based on a stock price of $37.20 and current PBPS of $18.31. The current P/B Ratio is just 3.8% higher than the 10 year median ratio and this stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.02% and this is some 17% above the current dividend yield of 4.16%. This this stock test suggests that the stock price is getting relatively expensive. (Do not forget that it is desirable that the current dividend yield be higher than the 5 year median dividend yield.)
However, on an historical basis, the average dividend yield is 3.47% and this is below the current dividend yield by 20%. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Also, the historical median dividend yield is even lower at 3.33% a value some 25% lower than the current dividend yield and this stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $59.80 and this implies a total return of 11.93% with 4.16% from dividends and 7.77% from capital gains.
The Globe & Mail had a recent article from Jeff Young about his current picks and IGM Financial was one of them. The Sys-Con Mediasite talks about net sales and increase in Assets under Management for this company.
Most of my stock testing shows that the stock price is reasonable. On an historical dividend yield basis it is cheap. Some analysts expect to see a dividend increase for 2014 and this would make this stock a better buy. However, the company has not announced any increases and two dividends for 2014 have already been paid. See my spreadsheet at igm.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, June 17, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. IGM Financial Inc. is a member of the Power Financial Corporation group of companies. Its web site is here IGM Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
IGM Financial Inc.
I do not own this stock of IGM Financial Inc. (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF). I am following this stock because I used to own this stock. I originally bought this stock to replace AGF Management (TSX-AGF.B). IGM was known as a dividend growth stock and it was on a lot of lists of good stocks, including Mike Higgs' and Dividend Aristocrats. I sold this 2011 because I had Power Financial, of which this company is partially owned by, and I want to rationalize my portfolio.
As with a lot of insurance and mutual fund companies, this company had problems with 2008. Prior to 2008 dividend increases were around 18% per year. Since 2008 the median increase is around 2.4% per year. The current 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is at 1.5% and 8.1% per year. Also, there was no dividend increase in 2010 and 2013. So far there has been no increase in dividends for 2014.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is at 72% and 66% for CFPS. Prior to 2008 the DPR for EPS was closer to 45% and for CFPS closer to 43%. The DPR for 2013 was 71% for EPS and 66% for CFPS. For 2014 analysts' expect the DPR for both EPS and CFPS to be around 64%.
The total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 8.67% and 7.96% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends was at 4.63% and 4.46% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gain was at 4.04% and 3.50% per year.
The outstanding shares have not changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. On Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow growth, the company has done much better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years. Growth had restarted in 2010 however, 2012 was not a good year and had negative growth.
Revenue per Share has increased by 1% and 4.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. EPS has increased by 0.9% and 6.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. CFPS has grown by 2.5% and 6.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages.
Return on Equity has always been good and it has been higher than 10% over the past 10 years. The ROE for 2013 was at 16.4% and the 5 year median is also 16.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income is a bit better coming in at 17.4% for 2013 and a 5 year median of 16.2%.
The debt ratios have been generally good, with the 2013 Liquidity Ratio at 2.11 and the 2013 Debt Ratio at 1.58. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.74 and 1.74.
I will continue to follow this stock because it is a Dividend Growth Stock. See my spreadsheet at igm.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, June 18, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. IGM Financial Inc. is a member of the Power Financial Corporation group of companies. Its web site is here IGM Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
As with a lot of insurance and mutual fund companies, this company had problems with 2008. Prior to 2008 dividend increases were around 18% per year. Since 2008 the median increase is around 2.4% per year. The current 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is at 1.5% and 8.1% per year. Also, there was no dividend increase in 2010 and 2013. So far there has been no increase in dividends for 2014.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is at 72% and 66% for CFPS. Prior to 2008 the DPR for EPS was closer to 45% and for CFPS closer to 43%. The DPR for 2013 was 71% for EPS and 66% for CFPS. For 2014 analysts' expect the DPR for both EPS and CFPS to be around 64%.
The total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 8.67% and 7.96% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends was at 4.63% and 4.46% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gain was at 4.04% and 3.50% per year.
The outstanding shares have not changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. On Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow growth, the company has done much better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years. Growth had restarted in 2010 however, 2012 was not a good year and had negative growth.
Revenue per Share has increased by 1% and 4.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. EPS has increased by 0.9% and 6.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. CFPS has grown by 2.5% and 6.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages.
Return on Equity has always been good and it has been higher than 10% over the past 10 years. The ROE for 2013 was at 16.4% and the 5 year median is also 16.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income is a bit better coming in at 17.4% for 2013 and a 5 year median of 16.2%.
The debt ratios have been generally good, with the 2013 Liquidity Ratio at 2.11 and the 2013 Debt Ratio at 1.58. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.74 and 1.74.
I will continue to follow this stock because it is a Dividend Growth Stock. See my spreadsheet at igm.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, June 18, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. IGM Financial Inc. is a member of the Power Financial Corporation group of companies. Its web site is here IGM Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, June 16, 2014
Reitmans (Canada) Ltd.
On my other blog I am today writing about Canadian Banks and their good second quarter of 2014 continue...
I own this stock of Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSX-RET.A, OTC-RTMAF). I bought this company in September 2013. It was in financial difficulties and so was quite cheap. I believe it will recover.
The first thing I noticed when updating my spreadsheet was that anyone who had this stock for 10 years have made a profit. If you look at 10 year total return to the end of January 2014, shareholders have earned 8.92% per year. Mind you, this is all in dividends as the portion of the total return attributable to dividends is 9.98% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to capital loss is 1.05% per year. In this case, it certainly paid off buying a dividend paying stock.
This is not true for the 10 years to date because if you had it 10 years to date the loss is at 1.97% per year or a 58% total loss. I have not made any money on this stock since buying it in 2013. My investment is down 25% to date or at 23.09% per year.
There is an article in the Montreal Gazette about Reitmans having a bad first quarter in ret.htm. This is the case as Reitmans did have a bad first quarter. The few analysts that are still following this stock have been busy reducing their estimates for the financial year ending in January 2015.
The analysts' recommendations are a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $6.00 and this implies a total return of 4.20% with 0.84% from capital gains and 3.36% from dividends.
The good thing is that the debt ratios are holding up. The current Liquidity Ratio is 3.13. The Debt Ratio is 3.87. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.35 and 0.35. These are all still quite high.
I will continue to hold on to the share I have bought. On one basis, this stock is showing as cheap and that is looking the Price/Book Value per Share Ratio. The 10 year P/B Ratio is 2.26 and the current P/B Ratio at 0.94 is almost 60% lower. See my spreadsheet at ret.htm.
Reitmans (Canada) Limited operates a network of clothing stores specializing in women's & men's fashions and accessories. The company operates stores under the names Reitmans, Smart Set, Pennington Superstores, RW & Co., Thyme Maternity, Addition-Elle, and Cassis. Its web site is here Reitmans.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSX-RET.A, OTC-RTMAF). I bought this company in September 2013. It was in financial difficulties and so was quite cheap. I believe it will recover.
The first thing I noticed when updating my spreadsheet was that anyone who had this stock for 10 years have made a profit. If you look at 10 year total return to the end of January 2014, shareholders have earned 8.92% per year. Mind you, this is all in dividends as the portion of the total return attributable to dividends is 9.98% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to capital loss is 1.05% per year. In this case, it certainly paid off buying a dividend paying stock.
This is not true for the 10 years to date because if you had it 10 years to date the loss is at 1.97% per year or a 58% total loss. I have not made any money on this stock since buying it in 2013. My investment is down 25% to date or at 23.09% per year.
There is an article in the Montreal Gazette about Reitmans having a bad first quarter in ret.htm. This is the case as Reitmans did have a bad first quarter. The few analysts that are still following this stock have been busy reducing their estimates for the financial year ending in January 2015.
The analysts' recommendations are a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $6.00 and this implies a total return of 4.20% with 0.84% from capital gains and 3.36% from dividends.
The good thing is that the debt ratios are holding up. The current Liquidity Ratio is 3.13. The Debt Ratio is 3.87. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.35 and 0.35. These are all still quite high.
I will continue to hold on to the share I have bought. On one basis, this stock is showing as cheap and that is looking the Price/Book Value per Share Ratio. The 10 year P/B Ratio is 2.26 and the current P/B Ratio at 0.94 is almost 60% lower. See my spreadsheet at ret.htm.
Reitmans (Canada) Limited operates a network of clothing stores specializing in women's & men's fashions and accessories. The company operates stores under the names Reitmans, Smart Set, Pennington Superstores, RW & Co., Thyme Maternity, Addition-Elle, and Cassis. Its web site is here Reitmans.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, June 13, 2014
Hammond Power Solutions Inc. 2
I own this stock of Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A, OTC-HMDPF). I bought this stock as my main purchase for the TFSA in 2013 and 2014. I picked Hammond initially in 2013 as my main buy because it has good growth and reasonable dividend.
When I look at insider trading, I find a small amount of insider buy ($170,000) and an even small about of insider selling with a small net of insider buying at $98,654. They have stock options, but there is not much in the way of stock options given out.
Bill Hammond as CEO and Chairman owns shares worth around $7.3M and almost 9% of the company. He also owns Arathorn Investments Inc. which holds all the company's Class B shares, which are the multiple voting shares with 4 votes per share. The Class B shares are worth around $22.7M or around 24% of outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.96, 12.77 and 14.57. These are higher than the 10 year ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 16.41 based on a stock price of $9.19 and 2014 EPS estimates of $0.56. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. On an absolute basis, a P/E of 16.41 is not very high.
I get a Graham Price of 10.96. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.56, 0.69 and 1.01. These are all very low ratios and on an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of 1.00 and below says the stock's price is low. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.84. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, although the price is in the higher part of the reasonableness range.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.21 and the current P/B Ratio is 0.96. The current P/B Ratio is some 21% below the 10 year ratio and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Also on an absolute basis a P/B Ratio less than 1.50 suggests a good or low stock price.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.48% and the current dividend yield at 2.61% is some 76% higher. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Even the average yield at 1.88% is some 32% below the current dividend yield and suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
In December 2012, a Keystone's Small-Cap Stock Report said they this company is a long term buy. They also thought that there might be some near-term volatility in the share price.
There seems to be only one analysts following this stock has the recommendation given is a Buy. However, the 12 month stock target price is just $9.00. This is 2% below the current stock price. The stock has been rising quite well since the low price $6.62 in December 2013 and it is up some 39%.
On a number of measures it would seem that the current stock price is relatively reasonable. See my spreadsheet at hse.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, June 12, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Hammond Power Solutions Inc. is the largest manufacturer of dry-type transformers in North America. They engineer and manufacture a wide range of custom transformers that are exported globally in electrical equipment and systems. They support solid industries such as oil and gas, mining, steel, waste and water treatment, and wind power-generation. Its web site is here Hammond Power Solutions.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find a small amount of insider buy ($170,000) and an even small about of insider selling with a small net of insider buying at $98,654. They have stock options, but there is not much in the way of stock options given out.
Bill Hammond as CEO and Chairman owns shares worth around $7.3M and almost 9% of the company. He also owns Arathorn Investments Inc. which holds all the company's Class B shares, which are the multiple voting shares with 4 votes per share. The Class B shares are worth around $22.7M or around 24% of outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.96, 12.77 and 14.57. These are higher than the 10 year ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 16.41 based on a stock price of $9.19 and 2014 EPS estimates of $0.56. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. On an absolute basis, a P/E of 16.41 is not very high.
I get a Graham Price of 10.96. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.56, 0.69 and 1.01. These are all very low ratios and on an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of 1.00 and below says the stock's price is low. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.84. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, although the price is in the higher part of the reasonableness range.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.21 and the current P/B Ratio is 0.96. The current P/B Ratio is some 21% below the 10 year ratio and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Also on an absolute basis a P/B Ratio less than 1.50 suggests a good or low stock price.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.48% and the current dividend yield at 2.61% is some 76% higher. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Even the average yield at 1.88% is some 32% below the current dividend yield and suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
In December 2012, a Keystone's Small-Cap Stock Report said they this company is a long term buy. They also thought that there might be some near-term volatility in the share price.
There seems to be only one analysts following this stock has the recommendation given is a Buy. However, the 12 month stock target price is just $9.00. This is 2% below the current stock price. The stock has been rising quite well since the low price $6.62 in December 2013 and it is up some 39%.
On a number of measures it would seem that the current stock price is relatively reasonable. See my spreadsheet at hse.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, June 12, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Hammond Power Solutions Inc. is the largest manufacturer of dry-type transformers in North America. They engineer and manufacture a wide range of custom transformers that are exported globally in electrical equipment and systems. They support solid industries such as oil and gas, mining, steel, waste and water treatment, and wind power-generation. Its web site is here Hammond Power Solutions.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Hammond Power Solutions Inc.
I own this stock of Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A, OTC-HMDPF). I bought this stock as my main purchase for the TFSA in 2013 and 2014. I picked Hammond initially in 2013 as my main buy because it has good growth and reasonable dividend.
The company became a public company in 2001 and they started to pay a dividend in 2009. Over the past 4 years dividends have gone up by 18.9% per year. The company also paid a special dividend in 2013.
If you look at the Dividend Payout Ratio for the last 5 years, it is at 16.7% for EPS and 10.9% for CFPS. However, DPRs are increasing and the ones for 2013 they are 58% for EPS and 37% for CFPS.
Currently, this stock is performing well. I have a total return of 12.05% per year with 9.75% per year from capital gains and2.32% per year from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 2.14% and 25.93% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gain is a loss of 0.2% per year over the past 5 years and a gain of 23.65% per year over the past 10 years. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 2.16% and 2.28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The outstanding shares have not increased over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to Buy Backs. The 2013 financial year was not a good one for this company. Revenue growth has been good over the past 5 and 8 years, but Earnings are down over the past 5 years and cash flow is ok, but not great over the past 5 years.
Revenue has increase by 9.4% and 12.6% per year over the past 5 and 8 years using the 5 year running average. Growth over the past 5 years does not look good at just 1.5% but exactly 5 years ago was a very good year. The growth over the past 10 years is at 12.3% per year.
The EPS is down by 2.2% and up by 36.6% per year over the past 5 and 8 years using the 5 year running averages. Exactly 5 years ago was a very good year and EPS growth is down by 23% per year. Over the past 9 years EPS has grown at 16.7% per year. I cannot get a 10 year growth rate as the company had a loss in EPS exactly 10 years ago.
CPFS is up by 4.5% and 21.5% per year over the past 5 and 8 years using the 5 year running average. Here again exactly 5 years ago was a very good year and CFPS is down by 16.3% per year over the past 5 years. CFPS is up by 18.7% per year over the past 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been all over the place. It has been below 10% twice over the past 5 years. The ROE for 2013 is at 5.6%. The ROE on comprehensive income is better at 8.4%.
The debt ratios are good on this stock. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.56. The Debt Ratio is very good at 2.40. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.71 and 0.71.
The first quarter of 2014 has not been a good one for this company. Revenues, Earnings and Cash Flow are all down from the first quarter of 2013. However, the company seems confident as they have increased the dividends for 2014 by 20%. See my spreadsheet at hse.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, June 13, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Hammond Power Solutions Inc. is the largest manufacturer of dry-type transformers in North America. They engineer and manufacture a wide range of custom transformers that are exported globally in electrical equipment and systems. They support solid industries such as oil and gas, mining, steel, waste and water treatment, and wind power-generation. Its web site is here Hammond Power Solutions.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
The company became a public company in 2001 and they started to pay a dividend in 2009. Over the past 4 years dividends have gone up by 18.9% per year. The company also paid a special dividend in 2013.
If you look at the Dividend Payout Ratio for the last 5 years, it is at 16.7% for EPS and 10.9% for CFPS. However, DPRs are increasing and the ones for 2013 they are 58% for EPS and 37% for CFPS.
Currently, this stock is performing well. I have a total return of 12.05% per year with 9.75% per year from capital gains and2.32% per year from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 2.14% and 25.93% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gain is a loss of 0.2% per year over the past 5 years and a gain of 23.65% per year over the past 10 years. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 2.16% and 2.28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The outstanding shares have not increased over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to Buy Backs. The 2013 financial year was not a good one for this company. Revenue growth has been good over the past 5 and 8 years, but Earnings are down over the past 5 years and cash flow is ok, but not great over the past 5 years.
Revenue has increase by 9.4% and 12.6% per year over the past 5 and 8 years using the 5 year running average. Growth over the past 5 years does not look good at just 1.5% but exactly 5 years ago was a very good year. The growth over the past 10 years is at 12.3% per year.
The EPS is down by 2.2% and up by 36.6% per year over the past 5 and 8 years using the 5 year running averages. Exactly 5 years ago was a very good year and EPS growth is down by 23% per year. Over the past 9 years EPS has grown at 16.7% per year. I cannot get a 10 year growth rate as the company had a loss in EPS exactly 10 years ago.
CPFS is up by 4.5% and 21.5% per year over the past 5 and 8 years using the 5 year running average. Here again exactly 5 years ago was a very good year and CFPS is down by 16.3% per year over the past 5 years. CFPS is up by 18.7% per year over the past 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been all over the place. It has been below 10% twice over the past 5 years. The ROE for 2013 is at 5.6%. The ROE on comprehensive income is better at 8.4%.
The debt ratios are good on this stock. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.56. The Debt Ratio is very good at 2.40. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.71 and 0.71.
The first quarter of 2014 has not been a good one for this company. Revenues, Earnings and Cash Flow are all down from the first quarter of 2013. However, the company seems confident as they have increased the dividends for 2014 by 20%. See my spreadsheet at hse.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, June 13, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Hammond Power Solutions Inc. is the largest manufacturer of dry-type transformers in North America. They engineer and manufacture a wide range of custom transformers that are exported globally in electrical equipment and systems. They support solid industries such as oil and gas, mining, steel, waste and water treatment, and wind power-generation. Its web site is here Hammond Power Solutions.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
McCoy Global 2
On my other blog I am today writing about the next market crash continue...
I own this stock of McCoy Corp. (TSX-MCB, OTC-MCCRF). I decided to try out McCoy. They had just restored their dividend. I want to use it as a fuller stock in my TFSA account. For me a fuller stock is one that uses up bits of extra money in an account.
When I look at insider trading, I find insider selling at $3.1M and insider buying at $0.6M with net insider selling at $2.5M. Insider selling represents 1.4% of the outstanding shares and is higher than what you generally see. (Insider selling is usually represents less a 1% of outstanding shares, normally.)
Insiders not only have options but Rights DSU (Deferred Stock Units). There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $2.6M, a director having shares worth $1.4M and the Chairman having shares worth $0.4M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 6.78, 8.52 and 10.20. These are low P/E Ratios and lower than the 10 year P/E Ratios which are 6.82, 14.13 and 19.66. The 2013 P/E Ratio low, median and high median ratios were 11.53, 12.93 and 16.43. These ratios include ones that are negative, because there were some years of no earnings.
The current P/E Ratio is 12.52. This is not a very high P/E Ratio, but it is higher than the 5 year median high, but not the 10 year median high. In fact it is lower than the 10 year median value. It would appear that perhaps the P/E Ratio of 12.52 is reasonable. This ratio is based on a stock price of $6.51 and 2014 EPS estimate of $0.52. On an absolute basis, the P/E Ratio is 12.52 is a reasonable one. For it to be cheap, the P/E Ratio would have to be below 10.
I get a Graham Price of $6.17. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.54, 0.95 and 1.40. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.06. By this stock price measurement, the stock price is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis, the P/GP Ratio of 1.06 is reasonable. To be cheap, the P/GP would have to be 1.00 or lower.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 1.53. The current P/B Ratio is 2.02, a value some 31% higher. By this stock price measurement, the stock price is relatively high. On an absolute basis, a P/B Ratio is 1.50 shows a stock to be cheap. The P/B Ratio of 2.02 is a reasonable one.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.34% and the current dividend yield at 3.07% is some 31% higher. The historical average dividend yield is 3.02% a value 2% lower than the current dividend yield of 3.07%. The historical median dividend yield is even lower at 1.93% and 60% lower than the current dividend yield of 3.07%. These tests show that the stock price could be considered to be relatively expensive to relatively cheap.
If you look at the Price/Sales Ratio, the 10 year P/S Ratio is 0.74 and the current P/S Ratio is 78% higher at 1.31. This test says the stock price is relatively expensive. On an absolute basis the P/S Ratio would have to be 1.00 or lower for the stock price to be cheap. The P/S Ratio of 1.31 is a reasonable one.
Looking at the Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio, the 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 8.07 and the current one is 11% higher at 8.92. This test says that the price is relatively reasonable but in the higher end of the reasonableness range. On an absolute basis, the P/CF Ratio would have to be 5.00 or less for the stock to be cheap. The P/CF Ratio of 8.92 is a little high.
The analysts' recommendations are Strong Buy and Buy. The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $7.85 and this implies a total return of 23.66% with 3.07% from dividends and 20.58% from capital gains.
The Edmonton Journal reports that after some disappointing quarters net earnings improve in the first quarter of 2014 for McCoy. The site Watch List News says that Raymond James restated their Buy (or Outperform) rating for McCoy recently. There is a two minute YouTube video from McCoy.
On a number of measures, the stock price comes out looking rather reasonable. See my spreadsheet at mcb.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, June 10, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
McCoy provides innovative products and services to the global energy industry. McCoy's two segments, Energy Products & Services and Mobile Solutions, operate internationally through direct sales and distributors with its operations based out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the US Gulf Coast. McCoy's corporate office is located in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada with offices in Alberta, British Columbia, Louisiana, and Texas. They are growing internationally. Its web site is here McCoy.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of McCoy Corp. (TSX-MCB, OTC-MCCRF). I decided to try out McCoy. They had just restored their dividend. I want to use it as a fuller stock in my TFSA account. For me a fuller stock is one that uses up bits of extra money in an account.
When I look at insider trading, I find insider selling at $3.1M and insider buying at $0.6M with net insider selling at $2.5M. Insider selling represents 1.4% of the outstanding shares and is higher than what you generally see. (Insider selling is usually represents less a 1% of outstanding shares, normally.)
Insiders not only have options but Rights DSU (Deferred Stock Units). There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $2.6M, a director having shares worth $1.4M and the Chairman having shares worth $0.4M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 6.78, 8.52 and 10.20. These are low P/E Ratios and lower than the 10 year P/E Ratios which are 6.82, 14.13 and 19.66. The 2013 P/E Ratio low, median and high median ratios were 11.53, 12.93 and 16.43. These ratios include ones that are negative, because there were some years of no earnings.
The current P/E Ratio is 12.52. This is not a very high P/E Ratio, but it is higher than the 5 year median high, but not the 10 year median high. In fact it is lower than the 10 year median value. It would appear that perhaps the P/E Ratio of 12.52 is reasonable. This ratio is based on a stock price of $6.51 and 2014 EPS estimate of $0.52. On an absolute basis, the P/E Ratio is 12.52 is a reasonable one. For it to be cheap, the P/E Ratio would have to be below 10.
I get a Graham Price of $6.17. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.54, 0.95 and 1.40. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.06. By this stock price measurement, the stock price is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis, the P/GP Ratio of 1.06 is reasonable. To be cheap, the P/GP would have to be 1.00 or lower.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 1.53. The current P/B Ratio is 2.02, a value some 31% higher. By this stock price measurement, the stock price is relatively high. On an absolute basis, a P/B Ratio is 1.50 shows a stock to be cheap. The P/B Ratio of 2.02 is a reasonable one.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.34% and the current dividend yield at 3.07% is some 31% higher. The historical average dividend yield is 3.02% a value 2% lower than the current dividend yield of 3.07%. The historical median dividend yield is even lower at 1.93% and 60% lower than the current dividend yield of 3.07%. These tests show that the stock price could be considered to be relatively expensive to relatively cheap.
If you look at the Price/Sales Ratio, the 10 year P/S Ratio is 0.74 and the current P/S Ratio is 78% higher at 1.31. This test says the stock price is relatively expensive. On an absolute basis the P/S Ratio would have to be 1.00 or lower for the stock price to be cheap. The P/S Ratio of 1.31 is a reasonable one.
Looking at the Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio, the 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 8.07 and the current one is 11% higher at 8.92. This test says that the price is relatively reasonable but in the higher end of the reasonableness range. On an absolute basis, the P/CF Ratio would have to be 5.00 or less for the stock to be cheap. The P/CF Ratio of 8.92 is a little high.
The analysts' recommendations are Strong Buy and Buy. The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $7.85 and this implies a total return of 23.66% with 3.07% from dividends and 20.58% from capital gains.
The Edmonton Journal reports that after some disappointing quarters net earnings improve in the first quarter of 2014 for McCoy. The site Watch List News says that Raymond James restated their Buy (or Outperform) rating for McCoy recently. There is a two minute YouTube video from McCoy.
On a number of measures, the stock price comes out looking rather reasonable. See my spreadsheet at mcb.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, June 10, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
McCoy provides innovative products and services to the global energy industry. McCoy's two segments, Energy Products & Services and Mobile Solutions, operate internationally through direct sales and distributors with its operations based out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the US Gulf Coast. McCoy's corporate office is located in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada with offices in Alberta, British Columbia, Louisiana, and Texas. They are growing internationally. Its web site is here McCoy.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
McCoy Global
I own this stock of McCoy Corp. (TSX-MCB, OTC-MCCRF). I decided to try out McCoy. They had just restored their dividend. I want to use it as a fuller stock in my TFSA account. For me a fuller stock is one that uses up bits of extra money in an account.
This is a dividend growth stock. They have grown their dividends over the past 5 and 9 years at the rate of 10.8% and 39.5% per year. However, they had some problems in 2009 and cut their dividends for 5 quarters. I find this a wise decision on their part, however, when people rely on dividends for income, like I do, they often really do not like dividend cuts.
The company lost money in 2008 and 2009. This is why the dividend was cut. They have also not yet increased the dividends for 2014 and we are half way through the year. The Dividend Payout Ratios for 2013 were at 56% for EPS and 29% for CFPS. They are expected to be at 39% and 27% respectively in 2014. Some analysts do expect the company to raise the dividends in 2014.
My total return on this stock is at 18.84% per year with 15.17% per year from capital gains and $3.67% per year from dividends. Mine you I do not have much invested in this stock. The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 39.51% per year and 10.96% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 35.22% and 8.80% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 4.29% and 2.15% per year.
The outstanding shares have increase by 0.6% and 4.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue, Earnings and Cash flow growth has been better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years.
Using 5 year running averages, the Revenue is up by 0% and 12.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share is down by 3.2% and up by 3.4% per year using 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years.
Using 5 year running averages EPS is down by 1% and up by 13.7% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. There are problems in calculating growth in EPS as this company has had years of EPS losses.
Using 5 year running averages, the CFPS has increased by 1% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. Using 5 year running averages, Cash Flow has increased by 4.7% and 19% per year over the past 5 and 8 years.
The debt ratios on this stock are very good. The current Liquidity Ratio is 2.71. The Debt Ratio is 3.39. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.42 and 42 respectively.
The Return on Equity for 2013 was at 11.4% in 2013. The ROE on comprehensive income was at 14% in 2013. It is a good think when the ROE on Comprehensive Income is at or above that on net income. It basically says that the EPS is of good quality.
I still think that this company will be a dividend growth company. See my spreadsheet at mcb.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, June 11, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
McCoy provides innovative products and services to the global energy industry. McCoy's two segments, Energy Products & Services and Mobile Solutions, operate internationally through direct sales and distributors with its operations based out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the US Gulf Coast. McCoy's corporate office is located in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada with offices in Alberta, British Columbia, Louisiana, and Texas. They are growing internationally. Its web site is here McCoy.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This is a dividend growth stock. They have grown their dividends over the past 5 and 9 years at the rate of 10.8% and 39.5% per year. However, they had some problems in 2009 and cut their dividends for 5 quarters. I find this a wise decision on their part, however, when people rely on dividends for income, like I do, they often really do not like dividend cuts.
The company lost money in 2008 and 2009. This is why the dividend was cut. They have also not yet increased the dividends for 2014 and we are half way through the year. The Dividend Payout Ratios for 2013 were at 56% for EPS and 29% for CFPS. They are expected to be at 39% and 27% respectively in 2014. Some analysts do expect the company to raise the dividends in 2014.
My total return on this stock is at 18.84% per year with 15.17% per year from capital gains and $3.67% per year from dividends. Mine you I do not have much invested in this stock. The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 39.51% per year and 10.96% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 35.22% and 8.80% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 4.29% and 2.15% per year.
The outstanding shares have increase by 0.6% and 4.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue, Earnings and Cash flow growth has been better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years.
Using 5 year running averages, the Revenue is up by 0% and 12.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share is down by 3.2% and up by 3.4% per year using 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years.
Using 5 year running averages EPS is down by 1% and up by 13.7% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. There are problems in calculating growth in EPS as this company has had years of EPS losses.
Using 5 year running averages, the CFPS has increased by 1% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. Using 5 year running averages, Cash Flow has increased by 4.7% and 19% per year over the past 5 and 8 years.
The debt ratios on this stock are very good. The current Liquidity Ratio is 2.71. The Debt Ratio is 3.39. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.42 and 42 respectively.
The Return on Equity for 2013 was at 11.4% in 2013. The ROE on comprehensive income was at 14% in 2013. It is a good think when the ROE on Comprehensive Income is at or above that on net income. It basically says that the EPS is of good quality.
I still think that this company will be a dividend growth company. See my spreadsheet at mcb.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, June 11, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
McCoy provides innovative products and services to the global energy industry. McCoy's two segments, Energy Products & Services and Mobile Solutions, operate internationally through direct sales and distributors with its operations based out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the US Gulf Coast. McCoy's corporate office is located in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada with offices in Alberta, British Columbia, Louisiana, and Texas. They are growing internationally. Its web site is here McCoy.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, June 9, 2014
WSP Global Inc. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about using analysts' estimates continue...
I own this stock of WSP Global Inc. (TSX-WSP, OTC-WSPOF). In Sept 2011 I rationalized my portfolio. I sold stocks that did not make it into my core and bought stocks that could of the same type. In this case selling Stantec and buying Genivar. In October 2011 I wanted to sell Enerflex because it is not a company I bought but a distribution from Toromont. I bought more Genivar, now called WSP Global.
When I look at insider trading, I find a bit of insider buying and no insider selling over the past 6 months. Insiders not only have stock options, but have option like vehicles called Performance Share Unit and Restricted Shares Units. There is some insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $26.7M.
Both the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board both own shares worth around $180B and about 19% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 14.32, 16.30 and 18.09. The current P/E Ratio is 21.99 based on a stock price of $38.92 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.77. By this stock price test the stock price is relatively expensive. P/E Ratios seem to be moving higher on this stock.
I get a Graham price of $27.47. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham price Ratios are 0.80, 1.07 and 1.29. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $38.92. By this stock price test the stock price is relatively very expensive.
The 7 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.68. The current P/B Ratio is 2.05 based on a stock price of $38.92 and current BVPS of $18.95. The current P/B Ratio is some 22% higher than the 7 year median P/B Ratio. By this stock price test the stock price is relatively expensive.
This stock is an old income company and therefore dividend yield would be lower as dividend yields tend to be lower when companies changed from an income trust to a corporation. Dividend yields on these stocks were expected to be between 4 and 5%. This company has a lower one at 3.85%.
The 7 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 7.05. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.47 a values some 104% higher. This is based on CFPS 2014 estimate of $2.49 and a stock price of $38.92. By this stock price test the stock price is relatively very expensive.
The 7 year Price/Sales Ratio is 0.94. The current P/S Ratio is 1.02 a value just 9% higher. The P/S Ratio is based on Revenue per Share of $38.16 (Revenue of $2010.6M dividend current outstanding shares). By this stock price test the stock price is relatively reasonable, but towards the higher end of the reasonable range.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The 12 month stock price target consensus is $40.40. This implies a total return of 7.66% with 3.80% from capital gains and 3.85% from dividends. This is rather a low expected total return.
This article in the Montreal Gazette talks about WSP Global stock price hitting a high point in April of this year because analysts put out some positive reviews of this company. An article in Stock House News on WSP Global talks about the good fourth quarter that this company has had. An article in Building talks about another acquisition in Australia by WSP Global.
My stock price testing shows mostly that the stock price is relatively expensive. I still think that this is a good company and will hopefully be a dividend growth company again. However, it would seem that now is not the time to buy more shares in this company. See my spreadsheet at wsp.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, June 6, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
WSP Global Inc. is an engineering services firm providing private and public-sector clients with a complete range of professional consulting services throughout all project phases, including planning, design, construction and maintenance. Mainly in Ontario and Quebec, but has some international exposure. Its web site is here WSP Global.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of WSP Global Inc. (TSX-WSP, OTC-WSPOF). In Sept 2011 I rationalized my portfolio. I sold stocks that did not make it into my core and bought stocks that could of the same type. In this case selling Stantec and buying Genivar. In October 2011 I wanted to sell Enerflex because it is not a company I bought but a distribution from Toromont. I bought more Genivar, now called WSP Global.
When I look at insider trading, I find a bit of insider buying and no insider selling over the past 6 months. Insiders not only have stock options, but have option like vehicles called Performance Share Unit and Restricted Shares Units. There is some insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $26.7M.
Both the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board both own shares worth around $180B and about 19% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 14.32, 16.30 and 18.09. The current P/E Ratio is 21.99 based on a stock price of $38.92 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.77. By this stock price test the stock price is relatively expensive. P/E Ratios seem to be moving higher on this stock.
I get a Graham price of $27.47. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham price Ratios are 0.80, 1.07 and 1.29. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $38.92. By this stock price test the stock price is relatively very expensive.
The 7 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.68. The current P/B Ratio is 2.05 based on a stock price of $38.92 and current BVPS of $18.95. The current P/B Ratio is some 22% higher than the 7 year median P/B Ratio. By this stock price test the stock price is relatively expensive.
This stock is an old income company and therefore dividend yield would be lower as dividend yields tend to be lower when companies changed from an income trust to a corporation. Dividend yields on these stocks were expected to be between 4 and 5%. This company has a lower one at 3.85%.
The 7 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 7.05. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.47 a values some 104% higher. This is based on CFPS 2014 estimate of $2.49 and a stock price of $38.92. By this stock price test the stock price is relatively very expensive.
The 7 year Price/Sales Ratio is 0.94. The current P/S Ratio is 1.02 a value just 9% higher. The P/S Ratio is based on Revenue per Share of $38.16 (Revenue of $2010.6M dividend current outstanding shares). By this stock price test the stock price is relatively reasonable, but towards the higher end of the reasonable range.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The 12 month stock price target consensus is $40.40. This implies a total return of 7.66% with 3.80% from capital gains and 3.85% from dividends. This is rather a low expected total return.
This article in the Montreal Gazette talks about WSP Global stock price hitting a high point in April of this year because analysts put out some positive reviews of this company. An article in Stock House News on WSP Global talks about the good fourth quarter that this company has had. An article in Building talks about another acquisition in Australia by WSP Global.
My stock price testing shows mostly that the stock price is relatively expensive. I still think that this is a good company and will hopefully be a dividend growth company again. However, it would seem that now is not the time to buy more shares in this company. See my spreadsheet at wsp.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, June 6, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
WSP Global Inc. is an engineering services firm providing private and public-sector clients with a complete range of professional consulting services throughout all project phases, including planning, design, construction and maintenance. Mainly in Ontario and Quebec, but has some international exposure. Its web site is here WSP Global.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, June 6, 2014
WSP Global Inc.
I own this stock of WSP Global Inc. (TSX-WSP, OTC-WSPOF). In Sept 2011 I rationalized my portfolio. I sold stocks that did not make it into my core and bought stocks that could of the same type. In this case selling Stantec and buying Genivar. In October 2011 I wanted to sell Enerflex because it is not a company I bought but a distribution from Toromont. I bought more Genivar, now called WSP Global.
This stock is another old income trust company that converted to a corporation. They did not decrease their dividends, but kept them level since 2009. Prior to that time dividends were increasing. The current dividend yield is 3.95%. Analysts do not see any dividend increases in the near future.
The Dividend Payout Ratios, especially for EPS are too high. The DPR for EPS in 2013 was 108.7%. Analysts expect this to be around 85% for 2014. The DPR for CFPS in 2013 was 63.4%. Analysts expect this to be around 55% in 2014.
As with other old income trust companies I have bought, I have done well on this stock. I have a total return of 26.53% per year on this stock with 20.42% per year from capital gains and 6.11% per year from dividends. The total return over the past 5 and 9 years is at 12.62% and 23.93% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 7.55% and 16.30% per year over these periods. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 5.07% and 7.63% per year over these periods.
Outstanding shares have increase by 30% and 25% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. Shares have increased due Share Issues and DRIP. Because shares are increasing so rapidly, the "per Share" values become very important. Revenue, Cash Flow and Earnings have all increased nicely. Revenue per Share has increased ok, but EPS and CFPS over the past 5 years is down.
Revenue has gone up 39% and 52% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. (Note that this company has only been on the stock exchange since 2006.) Revenue per Share is up by 7.2% and 21.3% per year over the past 5 and 7 years.
Net Income has increased by 22% and 41% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. EPS is down by 6.7% over the past 5 years and is up by 13.2% over the past 7 years. However, if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 3 years, EPS is up by 2.5% per year. Since the low in EPS in 2010, EPS has been increasing.
Cash flow is up by 14.4% and 32.6% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. CFPS is down by 11.8% and up by 6.1% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. If you look at the 5 year running average over the past 3 years, CFPS is down by 5.8% per year. CFPS hit bottom in 2012. It increased by 30% in 2013 and is expected to rise by almost 14% in 2014.
The Return on Equity Ratios are not that good. The ROE was only at 10% once since 2006. The ROE was at 7.2 in 2013 and has a 5 year median value of 7.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income was 10.4% in 2013 and this is a good sign. However, the 5 year median ROE on comprehensive income is also at just 7.7%.
The debt ratios are good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is fine at 1.51 in 2013. The Debt Ratio is very good at 2.10 in 2013. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.91 and 0.91 in 2013.
I have done very well with the old income trust companies that I did buy. I just wished I had bought more. This stock has also been good. The stock hit a low in 2012 and has been increasing since then. The stock price is up by 23% so far in 2014. This is a good sign. The stock price often takes off on stocks ahead of what is happening in a company.
I think that this stock will again be a dividend growth stock, but the company is wise to keep the dividends level until they can afford to raise them. I intend to hold on to my shares at this time. See my spreadsheet at wsp.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, June 9, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
WSP Global Inc. is an engineering services firm providing private and public-sector clients with a complete range of professional consulting services throughout all project phases, including planning, design, construction and maintenance. Mainly in Ontario and Quebec, but has some international exposure. Its web site is here WSP Global.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This stock is another old income trust company that converted to a corporation. They did not decrease their dividends, but kept them level since 2009. Prior to that time dividends were increasing. The current dividend yield is 3.95%. Analysts do not see any dividend increases in the near future.
The Dividend Payout Ratios, especially for EPS are too high. The DPR for EPS in 2013 was 108.7%. Analysts expect this to be around 85% for 2014. The DPR for CFPS in 2013 was 63.4%. Analysts expect this to be around 55% in 2014.
As with other old income trust companies I have bought, I have done well on this stock. I have a total return of 26.53% per year on this stock with 20.42% per year from capital gains and 6.11% per year from dividends. The total return over the past 5 and 9 years is at 12.62% and 23.93% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 7.55% and 16.30% per year over these periods. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 5.07% and 7.63% per year over these periods.
Outstanding shares have increase by 30% and 25% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. Shares have increased due Share Issues and DRIP. Because shares are increasing so rapidly, the "per Share" values become very important. Revenue, Cash Flow and Earnings have all increased nicely. Revenue per Share has increased ok, but EPS and CFPS over the past 5 years is down.
Revenue has gone up 39% and 52% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. (Note that this company has only been on the stock exchange since 2006.) Revenue per Share is up by 7.2% and 21.3% per year over the past 5 and 7 years.
Net Income has increased by 22% and 41% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. EPS is down by 6.7% over the past 5 years and is up by 13.2% over the past 7 years. However, if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 3 years, EPS is up by 2.5% per year. Since the low in EPS in 2010, EPS has been increasing.
Cash flow is up by 14.4% and 32.6% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. CFPS is down by 11.8% and up by 6.1% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. If you look at the 5 year running average over the past 3 years, CFPS is down by 5.8% per year. CFPS hit bottom in 2012. It increased by 30% in 2013 and is expected to rise by almost 14% in 2014.
The Return on Equity Ratios are not that good. The ROE was only at 10% once since 2006. The ROE was at 7.2 in 2013 and has a 5 year median value of 7.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income was 10.4% in 2013 and this is a good sign. However, the 5 year median ROE on comprehensive income is also at just 7.7%.
The debt ratios are good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is fine at 1.51 in 2013. The Debt Ratio is very good at 2.10 in 2013. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.91 and 0.91 in 2013.
I have done very well with the old income trust companies that I did buy. I just wished I had bought more. This stock has also been good. The stock hit a low in 2012 and has been increasing since then. The stock price is up by 23% so far in 2014. This is a good sign. The stock price often takes off on stocks ahead of what is happening in a company.
I think that this stock will again be a dividend growth stock, but the company is wise to keep the dividends level until they can afford to raise them. I intend to hold on to my shares at this time. See my spreadsheet at wsp.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, June 9, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
WSP Global Inc. is an engineering services firm providing private and public-sector clients with a complete range of professional consulting services throughout all project phases, including planning, design, construction and maintenance. Mainly in Ontario and Quebec, but has some international exposure. Its web site is here WSP Global.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Ag Growth International 2
I own this stock of Ag Growth International (TSX-AFN, OTC-AGGZF). It was talked about at the Money Show of 2009. Its median yield in 2009 was 7.9%. It is on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats. So I investigated this company. By 2011 when I bought this stock, I have been interested in AFN for some time. It has a high dividends but probably riskier than average.
When I look at insider trading, I find 1.8M of insider selling and $1.6M of net insider selling with a bit of insider buying. Insiders do not have stock options per se, but they have stock options type vehicles called Rights Long Term Incentive Plan, Rights Share Award Incentive Plan and Rights Deferred Compensation Plan.
In 2013 outstanding shares were increased by 65,000 shares for stock options. The book value of these shares was $2.5M and the value of this number of shares at the end of 2013 was $2.9M. The number of shares is less than 1% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios is 14.49, 21.29 and 25.65. The P/E Ratio is increasing as the 10 year values were 10.83, 16.00 and 21.17. The current P/E Ratio is 15.86 based on a stock price of $45.53 and 2014 EPS estimate of $2.87. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis, 15.86 is a moderate P/E Ratio.
I get a Graham price of $32.83. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.43 and 1.87. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.39. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis a P/GP Ratio of 1.39 is a moderate one. To be a good price, the P/GP Ratio would need to be 1.00 or lower.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.23. The current P/B Ratio is 2.73 based on a current BVPS of $16.59 and a stock price of $45.53. This ratio is some 22% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio and suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Since this is an old income trust stock and the dividend yield has probably become lower because it changed to a corporation. It was expected that the old income trusts would have dividend yields between 4 and 5% when they changed to corporations. The current dividend yield at 5.27% is a bit high, but the dividend yield for this stock has seldom been below 5%. I doubt I can make any proper judgments on this stock using dividend yield. But basically the higher the yield the better the stock price and 5.27% is a rather high yield.
If you look at Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio, the 10 year median ratio is 11.02 (a high value). The current P/CF Ratio is 9.61 a value some 13% lower. The P/CF Ratio is based on a stock price of $54.53 and 2014 CFPS estimate of $4.74. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Sales per Share Ratio is 1.72 and the current P/S Ratio is 1.35 a value some 21% lower. This P/S Ratio is based on a stock price of $54.53 and 2014 Sales estimate of $424 (and Sales per Share of $33.62. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
My testing of the stock price is all over the place. The only one that is not based on estimates says the stock price is expensive. Most of the others say it is reasonable and in the bottom range of the reasonableness range.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The 12 month consensus stock price is $50.70. This assumes a total return of 16.63% with 5.27% from dividends and 11.36% from capital gains.
The site of WKRB news and analysis talks about recent analysts' comments including TD Securities raising the 12 month Target price or $48 and keeping their Hold rating on this stock. (See my blog for information on analyst ratings .) The site Macr Axis has some interesting valuations on this company. At the site 2% Realty it talks about Cantor Fitzgerald's 7 stocks to own in Canada in 2014. This stock was included.
I can see why some analysts are rating this stock as a Hold. The stock price could be relatively high. This company is into agriculture, which is rather risky and it does business worldwide, including in the Ukraine. This could give you pause. See my spreadsheet at afn.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, June 04, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Ag Growth is a leading North American manufacturer of portable grain handling equipment, consisting of augers, belt conveyors, grain drying, fencing, post-hole augers, and other ancillary grain handling accessories. This company has 1,400 dealers and distributors in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Ag Growth.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find 1.8M of insider selling and $1.6M of net insider selling with a bit of insider buying. Insiders do not have stock options per se, but they have stock options type vehicles called Rights Long Term Incentive Plan, Rights Share Award Incentive Plan and Rights Deferred Compensation Plan.
In 2013 outstanding shares were increased by 65,000 shares for stock options. The book value of these shares was $2.5M and the value of this number of shares at the end of 2013 was $2.9M. The number of shares is less than 1% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios is 14.49, 21.29 and 25.65. The P/E Ratio is increasing as the 10 year values were 10.83, 16.00 and 21.17. The current P/E Ratio is 15.86 based on a stock price of $45.53 and 2014 EPS estimate of $2.87. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis, 15.86 is a moderate P/E Ratio.
I get a Graham price of $32.83. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.43 and 1.87. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.39. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis a P/GP Ratio of 1.39 is a moderate one. To be a good price, the P/GP Ratio would need to be 1.00 or lower.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.23. The current P/B Ratio is 2.73 based on a current BVPS of $16.59 and a stock price of $45.53. This ratio is some 22% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio and suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Since this is an old income trust stock and the dividend yield has probably become lower because it changed to a corporation. It was expected that the old income trusts would have dividend yields between 4 and 5% when they changed to corporations. The current dividend yield at 5.27% is a bit high, but the dividend yield for this stock has seldom been below 5%. I doubt I can make any proper judgments on this stock using dividend yield. But basically the higher the yield the better the stock price and 5.27% is a rather high yield.
If you look at Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio, the 10 year median ratio is 11.02 (a high value). The current P/CF Ratio is 9.61 a value some 13% lower. The P/CF Ratio is based on a stock price of $54.53 and 2014 CFPS estimate of $4.74. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Sales per Share Ratio is 1.72 and the current P/S Ratio is 1.35 a value some 21% lower. This P/S Ratio is based on a stock price of $54.53 and 2014 Sales estimate of $424 (and Sales per Share of $33.62. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
My testing of the stock price is all over the place. The only one that is not based on estimates says the stock price is expensive. Most of the others say it is reasonable and in the bottom range of the reasonableness range.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The 12 month consensus stock price is $50.70. This assumes a total return of 16.63% with 5.27% from dividends and 11.36% from capital gains.
The site of WKRB news and analysis talks about recent analysts' comments including TD Securities raising the 12 month Target price or $48 and keeping their Hold rating on this stock. (See my blog for information on analyst ratings .) The site Macr Axis has some interesting valuations on this company. At the site 2% Realty it talks about Cantor Fitzgerald's 7 stocks to own in Canada in 2014. This stock was included.
I can see why some analysts are rating this stock as a Hold. The stock price could be relatively high. This company is into agriculture, which is rather risky and it does business worldwide, including in the Ukraine. This could give you pause. See my spreadsheet at afn.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, June 04, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Ag Growth is a leading North American manufacturer of portable grain handling equipment, consisting of augers, belt conveyors, grain drying, fencing, post-hole augers, and other ancillary grain handling accessories. This company has 1,400 dealers and distributors in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Ag Growth.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
Ag Growth International
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks to buy continue...
I own this stock of Ag Growth International (TSX-AFN, OTC-AGGZF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the Money Show of 2009. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trust being currently good buys with very good yield. Its median yield in 2009 was 7.9%. It is on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats and this is why I first investigated this company. By 2011 when I bought this stock, I have been interested in AFN for some time. It has a high dividends but probably riskier than average.
The current dividend yield is still quite high at 5.27%. Like a lot of old income trust companies, this company is having a hard time paying for the dividends that it could afford as an income trust. The dividends have not increased since 2012. I am hoping that this stock will again be a dividend growth stocks once it brings it DPR under control.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. The DPR for EPS for 2013 was 137%. This is better than for 2012 when it was 175%. Analysts expect that DPR for EPS will fall to 83% in 2014. However, the first quarterly earnings were a disappointment.
The other thing about old income trusts was that the people at the money shows were right. There was good money to be made in old income trust stock. My total return on my investment in 2011 in this stock is at 17.8% per year with 10.96% per year from capital gains and 6.84% per year from dividends.
The total return from this stock over the past 5 and 10 years is at 11.56% and 24.02% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to capital gains is at 5.52% and 13.89% per year over these periods. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is at 6.04% and 10.13% per year over these periods.
The outstanding shares have not increased over the past 5 years, but have increased by 3% per year over the past 9 years. Shares have increased due to Debenture Conversions, Stock Options and Share Issues. They have decreased due to Buy Backs.
Growth in Revenues, Earnings and Cash Flow is ok to good. Revenue has grown at 19.5% and 15.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using 5 year running averages. Since this company became a stock company in 2004, I just have a maximum 9 year in data except for revenue.
Over the past 5 years, EPS is up by 8.86% per year over the past 5 year using 5 year running averages. EPS is up by 4.58% over the past 10 years. CFPS is up by 11.9% per year over the past 5 years using 5 year running averages. CFPS is up by 15.5% per year over the past 9 years. For both EPS and CFPS the exact 5 year growth is lower and at 1.3% per year and 4.3% per year respectively.
Over the past 10 years Return on Equity was below 10% in two years. The ROE for 2013 was at 11.5% and the 5 year median ROE is at 16.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income is higher for 2013 at 15.1% and its 5 year ROE is at 15.1%.
The Liquidity Ratio has varied but it usually is quite good. Not so in 2013 when it was just 1.32. This was because convertible unsecured subordinated debentures issued in 2009 had come due. The Liquidity Ratio was back to being higher in the first quarter of 2014 at 2.43. The Debt Ratio has always been good was at 1.68 in 2013, but this is also lower than normal. It was 2.03 in the first quarter of 2014.
Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are unusually high 2013 also at 2.47 and 1.47 in 2013. These were also back to normal in the first quarter of 2014at1.97 and 0.97.
This stock is in agriculture, so it will be cyclical which means it has a higher than average risk level. Although some analysts rate it was a median risk. All depends on your point of view. Although I do not have a lot invested in this company, I intend to hold on to my shares. See my spreadsheet at afn.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, June 5, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Ag Growth is a leading North American manufacturer of portable grain handling equipment, consisting of augers, belt conveyors, grain drying, fencing, post-hole augers, and other ancillary grain handling accessories. This company has 1,400 dealers and distributors in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Ag Growth.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Ag Growth International (TSX-AFN, OTC-AGGZF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the Money Show of 2009. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trust being currently good buys with very good yield. Its median yield in 2009 was 7.9%. It is on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats and this is why I first investigated this company. By 2011 when I bought this stock, I have been interested in AFN for some time. It has a high dividends but probably riskier than average.
The current dividend yield is still quite high at 5.27%. Like a lot of old income trust companies, this company is having a hard time paying for the dividends that it could afford as an income trust. The dividends have not increased since 2012. I am hoping that this stock will again be a dividend growth stocks once it brings it DPR under control.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. The DPR for EPS for 2013 was 137%. This is better than for 2012 when it was 175%. Analysts expect that DPR for EPS will fall to 83% in 2014. However, the first quarterly earnings were a disappointment.
The other thing about old income trusts was that the people at the money shows were right. There was good money to be made in old income trust stock. My total return on my investment in 2011 in this stock is at 17.8% per year with 10.96% per year from capital gains and 6.84% per year from dividends.
The total return from this stock over the past 5 and 10 years is at 11.56% and 24.02% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to capital gains is at 5.52% and 13.89% per year over these periods. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is at 6.04% and 10.13% per year over these periods.
The outstanding shares have not increased over the past 5 years, but have increased by 3% per year over the past 9 years. Shares have increased due to Debenture Conversions, Stock Options and Share Issues. They have decreased due to Buy Backs.
Growth in Revenues, Earnings and Cash Flow is ok to good. Revenue has grown at 19.5% and 15.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using 5 year running averages. Since this company became a stock company in 2004, I just have a maximum 9 year in data except for revenue.
Over the past 5 years, EPS is up by 8.86% per year over the past 5 year using 5 year running averages. EPS is up by 4.58% over the past 10 years. CFPS is up by 11.9% per year over the past 5 years using 5 year running averages. CFPS is up by 15.5% per year over the past 9 years. For both EPS and CFPS the exact 5 year growth is lower and at 1.3% per year and 4.3% per year respectively.
Over the past 10 years Return on Equity was below 10% in two years. The ROE for 2013 was at 11.5% and the 5 year median ROE is at 16.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income is higher for 2013 at 15.1% and its 5 year ROE is at 15.1%.
The Liquidity Ratio has varied but it usually is quite good. Not so in 2013 when it was just 1.32. This was because convertible unsecured subordinated debentures issued in 2009 had come due. The Liquidity Ratio was back to being higher in the first quarter of 2014 at 2.43. The Debt Ratio has always been good was at 1.68 in 2013, but this is also lower than normal. It was 2.03 in the first quarter of 2014.
Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are unusually high 2013 also at 2.47 and 1.47 in 2013. These were also back to normal in the first quarter of 2014at1.97 and 0.97.
This stock is in agriculture, so it will be cyclical which means it has a higher than average risk level. Although some analysts rate it was a median risk. All depends on your point of view. Although I do not have a lot invested in this company, I intend to hold on to my shares. See my spreadsheet at afn.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, June 5, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Ag Growth is a leading North American manufacturer of portable grain handling equipment, consisting of augers, belt conveyors, grain drying, fencing, post-hole augers, and other ancillary grain handling accessories. This company has 1,400 dealers and distributors in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Ag Growth.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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