Monday, October 25, 2010

Overview, Toronto Money Show 2010

The thing I noticed from speakers is that they assumed that we are in a secular bear market, of course, all these speakers where American. One thing I know is that Canada does not follow the US exactly. With recessions, sometimes we get hit worse and sometimes it is not as bad. This is one time that it is not as bad here. Our market is doing better than theirs is. We may also be in a secular bear, but the play out is not the same as in the US, and I think we will recover sooner. Not only did we not have a banking crisis, we have resources.

A negative note is that the Canadian economist from TD bank thinks the US going forward will have a GDP growth of just 2%. He also thinks, for different reason, we will only have a growth in GDP of 2%. However, most people think that slow growth with low inflation is better for equity markets than rapid growth that can cause high inflation. Another positive note is that Ron Meisers, a noted Canadian technical analyst thinks that the secular market is over and has been over since the stock markets low in March 2009. He thinks the cyclical bull market that started in March 2009 is the first leg of a new secular bull market.

However, Donald Vialoux said that equity markets move in 16 year cycles, (16 years of a secular bull market, followed by 16 years of a secular bear market). From 1983 to 1999, we had a secular bull market and from 2000 to 2016, we will have a secular bear market. He thinks that between now and 2016 there will be lots of volatility, but a continuation of no returns.

A couple of things I like to point out. One is that in 2008, Ron Meisers said in a 40 year cycle address, that the last one started in 1974 and will end in 2014. The other thing is that lots of economists talk about a 60 year cycle. Last year, the ones talking about this cycle ending in 2016, said that the cycles were around 16 years, some where longer and some shorter. The economists that talk about the 60 year cycle also say that it around 60 years, but could more or less than 60 years. It will be interesting to see how this all works out.

I will be posting separate blog entries for all the speakers and sessions I attended.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

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