Monday, October 25, 2010

Donald Vialoux, Toronto Money Show 2010

Donald Vialoux, a technical analyst was the next speaker. The information given on his talk was “Timing the Market Using a Combination of Technical, Fundamental and Seasonal Analysis”. He has the site timingthemarket and he also writes for the National Post. Another site he recommended was equityclock.

He talked about the equity market moving in 16 years cycle and that the current cycle, of a secular bear market, will last about 6 more years, to 2016. He says we should expect volatility and basically no returns over the period. He says he uses technical analysis to determine when to buy or sell. He then uses fundamental analysis to determine what to buy or sell.

In talking about seasonality, he said the optimal time to be in the US market is from October 28th to May 5th of each year. He also recommended that we read Thackray’s book called “2011 Investors Guide”. He said that the Canadian market has the same days as the US market. However, what he is giving is average optimal dates and these average dates can change up to 3 weeks either way. He thinks that the buy indicators for this year have not yet occurred, but they will within the next month. He also said that the gains in September had wholly to do with the US$ only. He thinks the US market and the commodities market will come under pressure over the next month.

For Banks, he said that the best times to hold them are from October to December each year and from February to May each year. The time has all to do with Bank reporting dates. The first one from October to December is to do with their annual statement reporting time. What we should expect is dividend increase from the banks soon. There will also be good new when the banks start to report in October. There will be buying opportunities before the end of this year.

The Shanghai seasonality is the same as the US S&P500 exchange. This is because it is affected by the US market. China is also affected by their October holiday. They have 4 days when the market is shut and after that, they like to buy. As the China market goes, so does commodities.

The Tech market is from October to January. People buy Tech for Christmas and then the Tech companies report for the year in the 2nd or 3rd week of January. The Las Vegas Tech show happens in the first part of May each year and it is after this when people sell Tech stocks. Tech stocks are currently overbought and this will change soon to be oversold.

In the US, foreclosures are not happening, as there are problems with the foreclosures in the US. What will happen is that people will buy new houses and not buy foreclosed houses. This is good for the lumber industry. Also, China will need lumber because they are building wood houses.

The last thing that Vialoux mentioned was the mid-term elections in the US. He said that the last quarter of the mid-term election year (2010) and the first two quarters of the next year (2011) are the best times for markets.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

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