Today, I would like to talk about Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). I bought this stock in 2005 and 2006, with a bit more purchased in 2009. I have made a negative return, including dividends of -6.8%. According to my spreadsheet, people who have held this stock for 10 years have made money. However, that is only because the price increased rapidly during the first year of demutualization. (The same thing happened to Sun Life Financial.)
When looking at my spreadsheet, it is obvious that this company has not done well over the past two years. The Return on Equity was 1.8% and 4.9% for 2008 and 2009 respectively. When you look at earnings growth over the last 5 and 10 years, there isn’t any. The 5 and 10 year earnings growth is -15.5% and
-1.2%. The good thing about earnings is that they are up 144% from 2008. The other thing to note about earnings is that when earnings came in at $.73 and were below estimates (I had $1.01) estimates for 2010 were reduced. I, however, must point out, that this is a common occurrence. Future estimates are often raised or lower because estimates for the current year are missed or exceeded.
From my point of view of a shareholder, the decrease in dividends is a negative. However, decreases in dividends are sometimes necessary for future growth. I know there have been arguments about whether or not this decrease in dividends was necessary or not. The other negative is the increase in the number of shares, especially when it comes with a decrease in Book Value.
However, there are some very positive notes for 2009. The two most important things are the growth in Revenue between 2008 and 2009 of 21.5% and the growth in Cash Flow between 2008 and 2009 of 39%. Both revenues growth and cash flow growth are very important for future growth in the value of this stock. The last thing to point out is that the Accrual Ratio is negative. The Ratio is low at only -.39%, but it is good that it is negative and that the Operational Cash Flow is higher than Net Income.
I will continue to hold on to the share I have. Tomorrow I will talk about what the analysts are saying about this stock. When I look over analysts’ reports, it would seem that whatever people think of its short term prospects, most feel it has good long term prospects.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. They are an international company, selling in Canada, US and Asia. This company is listed on Canadian, US, Hong Kong and Philippines Stock Exchanges. Its web site is www.manulife.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mfc.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Barclays Bank PLC 2
I would like to continue to talk today about the only foreign stock that I own and it is Barclays Bank (NYSE-BCS). As I said yesterday, it is hard to evaluate how well foreign companies are doing. You have to worry about foreign currency and different accounting methods. In the case of ADRs, as I have with Barclays bank, I not only have to worry about US currency, but also the UK pound.
The first think I want to find out is, was there any Insider Buying or Insider Selling for this bank recently. For this stock, I cannot find any Insider reports, but a number of analysts say there has been no activity at all for the last 6 months. The bank has shown some confidence by reinstating the dividend at the end of 2009 and increasing the dividend payment in 2010. The 2009 dividend was £.01 and the first one of 2010 was £.015. (This is a 50% increase in dividends, but from a very low level.)
When looking at US stock prices, I get a 5 year average low P/E of only 6 and a 5 year average high P/E of 12.4. The current P/E of 11.4 is closer to the high P/E, but it is also, on an absolute basis a rather low P/E. When I look at the yield, the yield is just 1.6%. Although the 5 year average is 6%, the yield on this stock, has been in the past around 3% to 4.5%. The current yield is low. However, the yield should recover as the bank does better.
In US dollar terms, I get a Graham Price of $34.52. The current stock price of $22.54 is almost 35% below the Graham Price. This shows a current good price. The other thing that shows a current good price is the Price/Book Value Ratio. The current ratio is 0.87 and the 10 year average is 1.79. This means that the current ratio is just less than 50% of the 10 year average. Any ratio that is 80% or lower than the 10 year average is a good ratio.
When I look for analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buys, Buys, Holds and Sells. I do not find any Underperform recommendations. The consensus is probably a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) People mention that since Barclays bought Lehman Brothers, it is now a different bank as it is now an investment bank as well as a retail bank. Investment banks are considered more risky than retail banks. Analysts with Hold ratings do not see much movement in the stock price over the next 12 months.
As I said yesterday, at the current time, I will be holding on to the shares I have in this bank.
This is a bank. Barclays is a global financial services provider, engaged in retail and commercial banking, credit cards, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services all over the world. Its web site is www.barclays.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bcs.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
The first think I want to find out is, was there any Insider Buying or Insider Selling for this bank recently. For this stock, I cannot find any Insider reports, but a number of analysts say there has been no activity at all for the last 6 months. The bank has shown some confidence by reinstating the dividend at the end of 2009 and increasing the dividend payment in 2010. The 2009 dividend was £.01 and the first one of 2010 was £.015. (This is a 50% increase in dividends, but from a very low level.)
When looking at US stock prices, I get a 5 year average low P/E of only 6 and a 5 year average high P/E of 12.4. The current P/E of 11.4 is closer to the high P/E, but it is also, on an absolute basis a rather low P/E. When I look at the yield, the yield is just 1.6%. Although the 5 year average is 6%, the yield on this stock, has been in the past around 3% to 4.5%. The current yield is low. However, the yield should recover as the bank does better.
In US dollar terms, I get a Graham Price of $34.52. The current stock price of $22.54 is almost 35% below the Graham Price. This shows a current good price. The other thing that shows a current good price is the Price/Book Value Ratio. The current ratio is 0.87 and the 10 year average is 1.79. This means that the current ratio is just less than 50% of the 10 year average. Any ratio that is 80% or lower than the 10 year average is a good ratio.
When I look for analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buys, Buys, Holds and Sells. I do not find any Underperform recommendations. The consensus is probably a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) People mention that since Barclays bought Lehman Brothers, it is now a different bank as it is now an investment bank as well as a retail bank. Investment banks are considered more risky than retail banks. Analysts with Hold ratings do not see much movement in the stock price over the next 12 months.
As I said yesterday, at the current time, I will be holding on to the shares I have in this bank.
This is a bank. Barclays is a global financial services provider, engaged in retail and commercial banking, credit cards, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services all over the world. Its web site is www.barclays.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bcs.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Barclays Bank PLC
What I would like to talk about today is the only foreign stock that I own. This is Barclays Bank (NYSE_BCS). It is hard to evaluate how well foreign companies are doing. Part of the reason is because of the currency exchange and part of the reason is how they report about their business in their financial statements. I had to look at some reporting outside the financial statements of Barclays Bank to figure out why US reports on this stock showed a much lower earnings in US$ than using Barclays earnings and the currency exchange rate would suggest.
I bought this stock in 2000 and according to quicken, I have made 4.9% return per year on this stock in US$. In currency exchange, I have lost 3.6% per year. However, since some 40% of the return on this stock is in Dividends that I received over the years, it is not clear how much I have really earned. Also, I have this stock in a US currency trading account and this avoids some of the problems with currency exchange. I have only taken out dividends from this account when the currency exchange has been relatively favorable to me.
The other thing is that this recession has been much harder on other countries than it has been on Canada. Also, banks in other countries have suffered greatly. This includes Barclays Bank. The last two years have been really bad years for this bank. In 2009, this bank suspended their dividends and only restarted the dividends in the later part of 2009. I received only 1 quarterly dividend payment in 2009.
If you look at my spreadsheet, the growth figures for this bank are generally awful. Cash flow and Return on Equity only look good because of extraordinary items. When the extraordinary items are taken away from earnings, the earnings go from 82 pence to 23 pence. That is earnings drop some 72%. The other thing that has happen is that the number of shares has increased some 73% since 2007. I think that the only good growth figures are for Book Value per share. Over the past 5 and 10 years, the book value per share has grown by 9% per year and 11% per year, respectively.
When you look at revenue growth, it looks good because revenue has grown over the past 5 and 10 years at a rate of 16.5% and 13.6% per year, respectively. However, if you look at revenue growth per share, you get a different story. The 5 and 10 year growth for revenue per share is 4% and 6.5% per year, respectively. The last thing I want to look at is the Accrual Ratio. The good thing is that it is negative. The other good thing is that the Operational Cash Flow is higher than the Net Income.
Tomorrow, I will talk about what the analysts say about this stock. I will continue holding my shares. I think that the worst is over with this stock.
This is a bank. Barclays is a global financial services provider, engaged in retail and commercial banking, credit cards, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services all over the world. Its web site is www.barclays.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bcs.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
I bought this stock in 2000 and according to quicken, I have made 4.9% return per year on this stock in US$. In currency exchange, I have lost 3.6% per year. However, since some 40% of the return on this stock is in Dividends that I received over the years, it is not clear how much I have really earned. Also, I have this stock in a US currency trading account and this avoids some of the problems with currency exchange. I have only taken out dividends from this account when the currency exchange has been relatively favorable to me.
The other thing is that this recession has been much harder on other countries than it has been on Canada. Also, banks in other countries have suffered greatly. This includes Barclays Bank. The last two years have been really bad years for this bank. In 2009, this bank suspended their dividends and only restarted the dividends in the later part of 2009. I received only 1 quarterly dividend payment in 2009.
If you look at my spreadsheet, the growth figures for this bank are generally awful. Cash flow and Return on Equity only look good because of extraordinary items. When the extraordinary items are taken away from earnings, the earnings go from 82 pence to 23 pence. That is earnings drop some 72%. The other thing that has happen is that the number of shares has increased some 73% since 2007. I think that the only good growth figures are for Book Value per share. Over the past 5 and 10 years, the book value per share has grown by 9% per year and 11% per year, respectively.
When you look at revenue growth, it looks good because revenue has grown over the past 5 and 10 years at a rate of 16.5% and 13.6% per year, respectively. However, if you look at revenue growth per share, you get a different story. The 5 and 10 year growth for revenue per share is 4% and 6.5% per year, respectively. The last thing I want to look at is the Accrual Ratio. The good thing is that it is negative. The other good thing is that the Operational Cash Flow is higher than the Net Income.
Tomorrow, I will talk about what the analysts say about this stock. I will continue holding my shares. I think that the worst is over with this stock.
This is a bank. Barclays is a global financial services provider, engaged in retail and commercial banking, credit cards, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services all over the world. Its web site is www.barclays.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bcs.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Bombardier Inc 2
I would like to continue to talk about this stock (TSX-BBD.B) today, as the January 2010 annual report is in and I own this stock. This is one of the first stocks I bought. I bought this stock in 1987 and I have made a return, including dividends, of 14.8% per year. I made money on this stock until 2001. Then for several years, the stock languished and then this stock started to again make some money from 2005.
When I look at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling report, I find that there is only some selling of just over $1M. Not much when you consider that, this is a $9B company. Also, all the selling is by officers of the company, and at least the officers of this company have more stock than options. It would be nice if they raised their dividends, but even when it was declaring dividends previously, it did not raise them yearly.
When I look at the 5 year average low P/E, I get one of 11.9 and the 5 year average high is 23.9. I get a current P/E based on earnings estimates for 2010 of 14.4. This is not a bad P/E ratio. The Graham Price I get for 2010 is $4.40 and this is some 21% lower than the current stock price of $5.33. Before this stock had problems with the 2000/2001 recession, the Stock Price was way above the Graham Price. However, in the last few years, you have been able each year to get this stock at sometime during the year at or below the Graham Price.
The next thing is the Price/Book Value Ratio. This ratio does not depend on any estimates and the current ratio of 2.30 is only 73% of the 10 year average of 3.15. A good stock price is when the current P/BV is 80% or lower than the 10 year average. The last thing to look at is the dividend yield. The current dividend yield is 1.9%. The 2 year average, since they just restated dividend payments is 1.7%. However, the dividend yield was 1% or lower when this stock last paid dividends. The other thing to note, however, is that this stock will probably never be the high flying stock it used to be in the past. It should do well, but not great.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The difference between the Hold and Buy recommendations seem to be what the analyst think the stock price will be over the next 12 months. The Buy recommendations talk about the incredible turnaround in this company over the past 10 years and that train and plane business will improve in the future. They also talk about the backlog of orders this company has. The ones with underperform talk about the fact that the glory days of this company is behind it and will never return.
The ratios I talked about above show that the stock price is a good one. It has been better, but the price is not unreasonable. I think to have a balance portfolio; you need to have industrial stock. This was a great stock in the past, and I think it will be a very good one going forward. This is why I have retaining this stock.
Bombardier is a world-leading manufacturer of innovative transportation solutions, from commercial aircraft and business jets to rail transportation equipment, systems and services. Headquartered in Montréal, Canada, Bombardier has a presence in more than 60 countries. The Bombardier family controls 54% of the voting rights under this stock. Its web site is www.bombardier.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bbd.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
When I look at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling report, I find that there is only some selling of just over $1M. Not much when you consider that, this is a $9B company. Also, all the selling is by officers of the company, and at least the officers of this company have more stock than options. It would be nice if they raised their dividends, but even when it was declaring dividends previously, it did not raise them yearly.
When I look at the 5 year average low P/E, I get one of 11.9 and the 5 year average high is 23.9. I get a current P/E based on earnings estimates for 2010 of 14.4. This is not a bad P/E ratio. The Graham Price I get for 2010 is $4.40 and this is some 21% lower than the current stock price of $5.33. Before this stock had problems with the 2000/2001 recession, the Stock Price was way above the Graham Price. However, in the last few years, you have been able each year to get this stock at sometime during the year at or below the Graham Price.
The next thing is the Price/Book Value Ratio. This ratio does not depend on any estimates and the current ratio of 2.30 is only 73% of the 10 year average of 3.15. A good stock price is when the current P/BV is 80% or lower than the 10 year average. The last thing to look at is the dividend yield. The current dividend yield is 1.9%. The 2 year average, since they just restated dividend payments is 1.7%. However, the dividend yield was 1% or lower when this stock last paid dividends. The other thing to note, however, is that this stock will probably never be the high flying stock it used to be in the past. It should do well, but not great.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The difference between the Hold and Buy recommendations seem to be what the analyst think the stock price will be over the next 12 months. The Buy recommendations talk about the incredible turnaround in this company over the past 10 years and that train and plane business will improve in the future. They also talk about the backlog of orders this company has. The ones with underperform talk about the fact that the glory days of this company is behind it and will never return.
The ratios I talked about above show that the stock price is a good one. It has been better, but the price is not unreasonable. I think to have a balance portfolio; you need to have industrial stock. This was a great stock in the past, and I think it will be a very good one going forward. This is why I have retaining this stock.
Bombardier is a world-leading manufacturer of innovative transportation solutions, from commercial aircraft and business jets to rail transportation equipment, systems and services. Headquartered in Montréal, Canada, Bombardier has a presence in more than 60 countries. The Bombardier family controls 54% of the voting rights under this stock. Its web site is www.bombardier.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bbd.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Bombardier Inc
I would like to talk about this stock (TSX-BBD.B) today, as the January 2010 annual report is in and I own this stock. This is one of the first stocks I bought. I bought this stock in 1987 and I have made a return, including dividends, of 14.8% per year. I made money on this stock until 2001. Then for several years, the stock languished and then this stock started to again make some money from 2005. This stock also stopped all dividend payments between 2005 and 2009.
Perhaps I should have sold this stock when it got into so much trouble with the 2000/2001 bubble. I have had this stock a long time and by the time I was starting to consider selling, the company seemed to have things better under control. So, it is now 2010 and I still have this stock. The problem of having a stock for a long time is that one gets invested into a stock or a company itself and it is hard to sell.
On my spreadsheet, I deal with figures from this company in both US and Canadian Currency. The company switched from reporting in CDN$ to US$ in 2005. What is noticeable is that this company has done better in US$ and in CDN$. However, since I live in Canada and use CDN$, I am very interested in how well a stock performs in CDN$. The other thing you notice is that it is only some 5 year growth figures that are any good.
The 5 year growth in Total Returns at 14.7% per year is perhaps the best figures this stock has. I should point out the dividends make little difference in the Total Returns. First of all, this is because they have only recently been restarted, and secondly, dividend yield has always been quite low on this stock. The Capital Gains for the last 5 years on this stock is 14% per year. This is not far off the Total Returns figures.
The next best figures are for earnings. Over the past 4 years, the earnings in CDN$ have increased by about 30% per year. The other good thing is that Book Value has recently been increasing also. This increase is just some 7.4% per year, but it is encouraging. So, what needs to happen for this to be a better investment stock is better growth in Revenues and Cash Flow. A number of analysts feel that Cash Flow will be picking up this year. The company has some $43.8B in backlog orders, so this should also help with increasing Revenue in 2010 and 2011.
For this company, the Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liabilities Ratio are both a little low at 1.39 and 1.22 respectively. I like to see both these ratio at 1.50, but at least they are above 1.00. That means the assets can over the liabilities when the ratio is 1.00 and above. The other ratio that is rather high is the accrual ratio and at 4%, it is fairly high. Please note that these ratios are the same, no matter what currency you are dealing with.
I guess the last thing to talk about is the Return on Equity. Here this company is doing quite well in that the ROE, for the financial year ending in January 2010, is 18.8%. The 5 year running average is also quite good at 17.9%. I intend to hold on to the stock I have. I think that the worst is over for this stock. However, one never does know what the future might hold.
Bombardier is a world-leading manufacturer of innovative transportation solutions, from commercial aircraft and business jets to rail transportation equipment, systems and services. Headquartered in Montréal, Canada, Bombardier has a presence in more than 60 countries. The Bombardier family controls 54% of the voting rights under this stock. Its web site is www.bombardier.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bbd.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Perhaps I should have sold this stock when it got into so much trouble with the 2000/2001 bubble. I have had this stock a long time and by the time I was starting to consider selling, the company seemed to have things better under control. So, it is now 2010 and I still have this stock. The problem of having a stock for a long time is that one gets invested into a stock or a company itself and it is hard to sell.
On my spreadsheet, I deal with figures from this company in both US and Canadian Currency. The company switched from reporting in CDN$ to US$ in 2005. What is noticeable is that this company has done better in US$ and in CDN$. However, since I live in Canada and use CDN$, I am very interested in how well a stock performs in CDN$. The other thing you notice is that it is only some 5 year growth figures that are any good.
The 5 year growth in Total Returns at 14.7% per year is perhaps the best figures this stock has. I should point out the dividends make little difference in the Total Returns. First of all, this is because they have only recently been restarted, and secondly, dividend yield has always been quite low on this stock. The Capital Gains for the last 5 years on this stock is 14% per year. This is not far off the Total Returns figures.
The next best figures are for earnings. Over the past 4 years, the earnings in CDN$ have increased by about 30% per year. The other good thing is that Book Value has recently been increasing also. This increase is just some 7.4% per year, but it is encouraging. So, what needs to happen for this to be a better investment stock is better growth in Revenues and Cash Flow. A number of analysts feel that Cash Flow will be picking up this year. The company has some $43.8B in backlog orders, so this should also help with increasing Revenue in 2010 and 2011.
For this company, the Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liabilities Ratio are both a little low at 1.39 and 1.22 respectively. I like to see both these ratio at 1.50, but at least they are above 1.00. That means the assets can over the liabilities when the ratio is 1.00 and above. The other ratio that is rather high is the accrual ratio and at 4%, it is fairly high. Please note that these ratios are the same, no matter what currency you are dealing with.
I guess the last thing to talk about is the Return on Equity. Here this company is doing quite well in that the ROE, for the financial year ending in January 2010, is 18.8%. The 5 year running average is also quite good at 17.9%. I intend to hold on to the stock I have. I think that the worst is over for this stock. However, one never does know what the future might hold.
Bombardier is a world-leading manufacturer of innovative transportation solutions, from commercial aircraft and business jets to rail transportation equipment, systems and services. Headquartered in Montréal, Canada, Bombardier has a presence in more than 60 countries. The Bombardier family controls 54% of the voting rights under this stock. Its web site is www.bombardier.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bbd.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Leon's Furniture Ltd 2
I would like to continue my talk about this stock (TSX-LNF) today, look at the pricing of the stock and see what the analysts say. The 2009 annual report is in and I own this stock. This stock is a currently favorite and my intentions are to buy more in the future. I first bought this stock in 2006 and I bought more in 2008 and 2009. I have a return of 8.7% per year on this stock.
The Insider Buying and Insider Selling report shows very little action. There is a small amount of buying and a very tiny amount of selling. We learn nothing from this. The best gage of what the company thinks how they are doing is the dividends. We are in uncertain times and the company issued a special dividend at the end of 2009 of $.20 a share rather than raise the regular dividend of $.28 a share. This seems to give out special dividends on a rather regular basis. They do not commit to a raise in the regular dividend unless they are sure they can maintain it. The company acts in a conservative manner and has done well by the shareholders in the past. I can only see this continuing.
Now, I shall go on to talk about the current price. The 5 year average low P/E ratio is 12 and the 5 year average high is 16.5. The current P/E that I calculate is 14.9. This seems like a reasonable P/E. I get a Graham Price of $10.03. The current stock price of $12.50 is about 25% above this. This is not as far off the Graham Price that this stock has been in the past, but the stock price is a fair bit above the Graham Price.
When I look at the Price/Book Value Ratio, I find that the current ratio of 2.35 to be above the same as the long term average of 2.36. The last thing to look at is the dividend yield. The current yield at 2.2% is not a bad yield for this stock, but it has been better in the past. The 5 year average is higher at 2.4%. The 10 year average yield on the low stock price is 2.5%. So, the stock price is reasonable. It reached a high of $15.70 in 2007, which is still some 20% higher than the current price.
When I look at analyst recommendations, I find a Strong Buy, a Buy and a Hold. There are not many analysts following this stock. This is probably because it is mostly owned by one family. The consensus recommendation would be a buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) I cannot find any negative remarks on this stock. Analysts talk about the fact the company has no debt. The company stock is not thought to go up much in the near term, but stock is thought a good buy for long term gain and a good dividend.
As I said before, I already have some of this stock and I plan, at some point, to buy some more.
This company sells home furnishings, appliances and electronics through a chain of retail facilities and franchises located in Canada. Leon family owns 68% of this company. Cannot find financial statements on site, but they are published in news item. Its web site is www.leons.ca . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/lnf.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
The Insider Buying and Insider Selling report shows very little action. There is a small amount of buying and a very tiny amount of selling. We learn nothing from this. The best gage of what the company thinks how they are doing is the dividends. We are in uncertain times and the company issued a special dividend at the end of 2009 of $.20 a share rather than raise the regular dividend of $.28 a share. This seems to give out special dividends on a rather regular basis. They do not commit to a raise in the regular dividend unless they are sure they can maintain it. The company acts in a conservative manner and has done well by the shareholders in the past. I can only see this continuing.
Now, I shall go on to talk about the current price. The 5 year average low P/E ratio is 12 and the 5 year average high is 16.5. The current P/E that I calculate is 14.9. This seems like a reasonable P/E. I get a Graham Price of $10.03. The current stock price of $12.50 is about 25% above this. This is not as far off the Graham Price that this stock has been in the past, but the stock price is a fair bit above the Graham Price.
When I look at the Price/Book Value Ratio, I find that the current ratio of 2.35 to be above the same as the long term average of 2.36. The last thing to look at is the dividend yield. The current yield at 2.2% is not a bad yield for this stock, but it has been better in the past. The 5 year average is higher at 2.4%. The 10 year average yield on the low stock price is 2.5%. So, the stock price is reasonable. It reached a high of $15.70 in 2007, which is still some 20% higher than the current price.
When I look at analyst recommendations, I find a Strong Buy, a Buy and a Hold. There are not many analysts following this stock. This is probably because it is mostly owned by one family. The consensus recommendation would be a buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) I cannot find any negative remarks on this stock. Analysts talk about the fact the company has no debt. The company stock is not thought to go up much in the near term, but stock is thought a good buy for long term gain and a good dividend.
As I said before, I already have some of this stock and I plan, at some point, to buy some more.
This company sells home furnishings, appliances and electronics through a chain of retail facilities and franchises located in Canada. Leon family owns 68% of this company. Cannot find financial statements on site, but they are published in news item. Its web site is www.leons.ca . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/lnf.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Leon's Furniture Ltd
I would like to talk about this stock (TSX-LNF) today, as the 2009 annual report is in and I own this stock. This stock is a currently favorite and my intentions are to buy more in the future. I first bought this stock in 2006 and I bought more in 2008 and 2009. I have a return of 8.7% per year on this stock. My return includes all dividends. This stock pays special dividends when it can.
The growth figures on this stock go from not bad to good. In the not bad category are such things as revenue, which has grown over the last 5 and 10 years at 5.4 and 6.6% per year, respectively. The growth in revenue per share is a bit better, with the last 5 and 10 year growth at 6% and 8% per year.
Good growth is found in the cash flow, and over the last 5 and 10 years, the growth has been 9.3% and 9.8% per year. The best growth has been in dividends and they have grown over the past 5 and 10 years at the rate of 8.6% and 12.7% per year, respectively. What you want is for dividends to grow faster than inflation. Inflation has been quite low recently. (The average long term background inflation is about 3% per year.)
If you read any analysts on this stock, the one thing they all seem to mention is the fact that this company has no debt. The Liquidity Ratio is very high at 2.34 currently, with a long term average around 2.00. The Asset/Liability Ratio is even higher at 3.44 and a long term average around 3.30. The ratios are very good. The Return on Equity at 15.2% for 2009 is not bad, considering they did not have a particularly good year. The 5 year running average is even better at 17.6%.
As I said earlier, I plan on buying more of this stock. However, I usually do my buying towards the end of the year as there is usually a seasonality to the market and it is usually at its lowest in the fall.
This company sells home furnishings, appliances and electronics through a chain of retail facilities and franchises located in Canada. Leon family owns 68% of this company. Cannot find financial statements on site, but they are published in news item. Its web site is www.leons.ca . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/lnf.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
The growth figures on this stock go from not bad to good. In the not bad category are such things as revenue, which has grown over the last 5 and 10 years at 5.4 and 6.6% per year, respectively. The growth in revenue per share is a bit better, with the last 5 and 10 year growth at 6% and 8% per year.
Good growth is found in the cash flow, and over the last 5 and 10 years, the growth has been 9.3% and 9.8% per year. The best growth has been in dividends and they have grown over the past 5 and 10 years at the rate of 8.6% and 12.7% per year, respectively. What you want is for dividends to grow faster than inflation. Inflation has been quite low recently. (The average long term background inflation is about 3% per year.)
If you read any analysts on this stock, the one thing they all seem to mention is the fact that this company has no debt. The Liquidity Ratio is very high at 2.34 currently, with a long term average around 2.00. The Asset/Liability Ratio is even higher at 3.44 and a long term average around 3.30. The ratios are very good. The Return on Equity at 15.2% for 2009 is not bad, considering they did not have a particularly good year. The 5 year running average is even better at 17.6%.
As I said earlier, I plan on buying more of this stock. However, I usually do my buying towards the end of the year as there is usually a seasonality to the market and it is usually at its lowest in the fall.
This company sells home furnishings, appliances and electronics through a chain of retail facilities and franchises located in Canada. Leon family owns 68% of this company. Cannot find financial statements on site, but they are published in news item. Its web site is www.leons.ca . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/lnf.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Manitoba Telecom Services 2
I would like to continue talking about this stock (TSX-MBT) today, as the 2009 annual report is in and I own this stock. I bought this stock in 2006 and intended to make it a member of my backbone stock portfolio. For the stock I bought in 2006, I have made a return of 2.9% per year. I have changed my mind about this stock and I will probably get rid of it at an opportune time.
The thing I worry about in investing into any Telecom company is that that all are planning on getting more money from each customer as their business plan for future growth. I do not know about you, but I think I pay a lot for communication services. Monthly I pay $63.23 for the internet, $61.54 for cable, $37.25 for telephone and $11.30 for my cell. (I know, I have a really cheap cell phone plan and rarely use my cell phone.)
From anything, I have read, Canada has some of the highest charges for communications services. They are increased each year at more than the inflation rate. This cannot go on. Technologies should be getting cheaper, not continuing to be more expensive. I do not see how the current companies are going to survive, for the long term, unless than start to cut the costs of communications. This is one reason I do not think it is wise to invest in any communications company. Canada is beginning to allow other cell phone companies to operate. Hopefully, in the future we will have a better choice on other communication services.
Now that is out of the way, let’s talk about this company in particular. I looked at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling reports. The insiders generally have more options than stocks. Over the past year, there was insider selling, but only about .5M. There was no insider buying. Last time I looked at this stock, it was the same story. Insiders appear not to want to hold on any stock options they receive. As far as dividends go, the company will keep them at the current rate at present, they say they will try to continue to do this. It would appear that cash flow would not be high enough over the next two years to consider any dividend increases.
Looking at the P/E ratio, I find that the 5 year average low is 14.4 and the 5 year average high is 18. The current P/E based on estimates for 2010 is 14.3. However, I should point out that for 2009, I picked up an earnings estimate of $2.91 and it came in at $1.57. Analysts have reduced 2010 earnings from $2.95 to $2.30. Have they got it right this time? For 2010, I get a Graham price of $32.46. The current price of $32.90 is just 1% off this. I should point out that the Graham Price has been declining since 2006 because of declining earnings and book value.
When I look at the Price/Book Value ratio, I get a current one of 1.62. This is some 73% of the 10 year average. Any ratio that is 80% or less of the 10 year average shows a good stock price. The last thing to talk about is the yield. The current one at 7.9% is high. This is a high yield by any measure, although in parts of 2008 and 2009, the yield was over 8%. There are stock pickers who feel that any yield over 4.5% on such a stock probably signals problems rather being a good thing. They suggest that unless there is something that you really like about a stock, you should avoid it. They term this as chasing yields and advise that this can be a risky thing to do in purchasing stocks.
When I look to see what they analysts say, I find one Strong Buy, lots and lots of Holds, a few Underperform and some Sells. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) There are no Buy recommendations that I can find. The Strong Buy recommendation comes with comments on the high dividend yield. The Hold recommendations expects that the high dividend yield will continue and management will do all they can to maintain this dividend. They also give a stock price over the next 12 months at or close to current stock price. The Sells recommendations say the company will have low growth in a difficult industry. Some think the company is in decline. Others think the dividend will not be maintained.
As I said yesterday, I plan to sell the stock I have at an opportune time. April and May are generally good selling months because of the seasonality of the stock market.
This company is a full-service communications company. It serves residential and business customers in Manitoba. Their Allstream division serves national business consumers. Its web site is www.mts.ca . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mbt.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
The thing I worry about in investing into any Telecom company is that that all are planning on getting more money from each customer as their business plan for future growth. I do not know about you, but I think I pay a lot for communication services. Monthly I pay $63.23 for the internet, $61.54 for cable, $37.25 for telephone and $11.30 for my cell. (I know, I have a really cheap cell phone plan and rarely use my cell phone.)
From anything, I have read, Canada has some of the highest charges for communications services. They are increased each year at more than the inflation rate. This cannot go on. Technologies should be getting cheaper, not continuing to be more expensive. I do not see how the current companies are going to survive, for the long term, unless than start to cut the costs of communications. This is one reason I do not think it is wise to invest in any communications company. Canada is beginning to allow other cell phone companies to operate. Hopefully, in the future we will have a better choice on other communication services.
Now that is out of the way, let’s talk about this company in particular. I looked at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling reports. The insiders generally have more options than stocks. Over the past year, there was insider selling, but only about .5M. There was no insider buying. Last time I looked at this stock, it was the same story. Insiders appear not to want to hold on any stock options they receive. As far as dividends go, the company will keep them at the current rate at present, they say they will try to continue to do this. It would appear that cash flow would not be high enough over the next two years to consider any dividend increases.
Looking at the P/E ratio, I find that the 5 year average low is 14.4 and the 5 year average high is 18. The current P/E based on estimates for 2010 is 14.3. However, I should point out that for 2009, I picked up an earnings estimate of $2.91 and it came in at $1.57. Analysts have reduced 2010 earnings from $2.95 to $2.30. Have they got it right this time? For 2010, I get a Graham price of $32.46. The current price of $32.90 is just 1% off this. I should point out that the Graham Price has been declining since 2006 because of declining earnings and book value.
When I look at the Price/Book Value ratio, I get a current one of 1.62. This is some 73% of the 10 year average. Any ratio that is 80% or less of the 10 year average shows a good stock price. The last thing to talk about is the yield. The current one at 7.9% is high. This is a high yield by any measure, although in parts of 2008 and 2009, the yield was over 8%. There are stock pickers who feel that any yield over 4.5% on such a stock probably signals problems rather being a good thing. They suggest that unless there is something that you really like about a stock, you should avoid it. They term this as chasing yields and advise that this can be a risky thing to do in purchasing stocks.
When I look to see what they analysts say, I find one Strong Buy, lots and lots of Holds, a few Underperform and some Sells. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) There are no Buy recommendations that I can find. The Strong Buy recommendation comes with comments on the high dividend yield. The Hold recommendations expects that the high dividend yield will continue and management will do all they can to maintain this dividend. They also give a stock price over the next 12 months at or close to current stock price. The Sells recommendations say the company will have low growth in a difficult industry. Some think the company is in decline. Others think the dividend will not be maintained.
As I said yesterday, I plan to sell the stock I have at an opportune time. April and May are generally good selling months because of the seasonality of the stock market.
This company is a full-service communications company. It serves residential and business customers in Manitoba. Their Allstream division serves national business consumers. Its web site is www.mts.ca . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mbt.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Manitoba Telecom Services
I would like to talk about this stock (TSX-MBT) today, as the 2009 annual report is in and I own this stock. I bought this stock in 2006 and intended to make it a member of my backbone stock portfolio. For the stock I bought in 2006, I have made a return of 2.9% per year. I have changed my mind about this stock and I will probably get rid of it at an opportune time.
The problem I see with this stock is the lack of dividend increases. They cannot afford to increase dividends. The cash flow is not increasing, in fact, the growth figures for the last 5 and 10 years are negative (-7% per year and -2.6% per year, respectively). Also, the book value has been falling over the last 3 years and although the 10 year figures is not totally awful, the 5 year growth figure is negative (-2% per year).
Some of the 10 year growth figures are fairly good, like the growth in Revenue at 9.6% per year and the growth in Total Returns of 10.3% per year. However, there are no great 5 year figures. It is not just that 2009 was a bad year, 2007 and 2008 were also bad years. This started before the current recession. The estimates that I picked up show that 2010 and 2011 will be better, but these “better” estimates do not get this company back to even the 2007 values.
The Return on Equity for this stock is not bad and it has not been particularly bad. The ROE for 2009 at 7.7% is lower than it has been for sometime and the 5 year average of 13.2% is good. However, when you look at the Liquidity Ratio of 1.01, the current assets can just cover the current liabilities. The Asset/Liability Ratio is a lot better at 1.83 (where anything at or above 1.50 is good). However, it would seem that the book value is being affected by the payment of dividends.
Also, unfortunately, the accrual ratio is very high at 4.7%. This could call into question the quality of the earnings per share. The only good thing about the Accrual Ratio is that the Operational Cash Flow is higher than the Net Income.
As I have said previously, I no longer consider this a backbone stock and I will probably sell it off. I am a long term investor, and this stock is not the one I bought in 2006. Tomorrow, I will talk about what the analysts say about this stock.
This company is a full-service communications company. It serves residential and business customers in Manitoba. Their Allstream division serves national business consumers. Its web site is www.mts.ca . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mbt.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
The problem I see with this stock is the lack of dividend increases. They cannot afford to increase dividends. The cash flow is not increasing, in fact, the growth figures for the last 5 and 10 years are negative (-7% per year and -2.6% per year, respectively). Also, the book value has been falling over the last 3 years and although the 10 year figures is not totally awful, the 5 year growth figure is negative (-2% per year).
Some of the 10 year growth figures are fairly good, like the growth in Revenue at 9.6% per year and the growth in Total Returns of 10.3% per year. However, there are no great 5 year figures. It is not just that 2009 was a bad year, 2007 and 2008 were also bad years. This started before the current recession. The estimates that I picked up show that 2010 and 2011 will be better, but these “better” estimates do not get this company back to even the 2007 values.
The Return on Equity for this stock is not bad and it has not been particularly bad. The ROE for 2009 at 7.7% is lower than it has been for sometime and the 5 year average of 13.2% is good. However, when you look at the Liquidity Ratio of 1.01, the current assets can just cover the current liabilities. The Asset/Liability Ratio is a lot better at 1.83 (where anything at or above 1.50 is good). However, it would seem that the book value is being affected by the payment of dividends.
Also, unfortunately, the accrual ratio is very high at 4.7%. This could call into question the quality of the earnings per share. The only good thing about the Accrual Ratio is that the Operational Cash Flow is higher than the Net Income.
As I have said previously, I no longer consider this a backbone stock and I will probably sell it off. I am a long term investor, and this stock is not the one I bought in 2006. Tomorrow, I will talk about what the analysts say about this stock.
This company is a full-service communications company. It serves residential and business customers in Manitoba. Their Allstream division serves national business consumers. Its web site is www.mts.ca . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mbt.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, April 16, 2010
TransCanada Corp 2
I would like to continue my talk about this stock (TSX-TRP) today. This is a stock I own. I bought this stock initially in 2000 and I bought more in 2006. Overall, I have made 11.8% per year, including dividends, on this stock. On my original investment in 2000, I am making over 12% in returns (I originally paid $11.95 a share and I get dividends of $.38 a share). For my 2006 investments, I am making a return of 4.6%. The stock’s current yield is 4%.
Looking at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling reports, I find that over the past year there has been some $22.5M of insider selling. For this company, insiders have more stock options than stocks. Insiders seem to be selling off their stock options as soon as they can. The good thing is the dividend increase. Because the dividend increase occurred after the 1st dividend was paid, the increase in dividends in 2009 over 2008 was 4.2%. They increased the dividend from $.36 a share to $.38 a share and this is an increase of 5.6%.
When I look at the 5 year average low P/E, I get a P/E of 13.5. The 5 year average high P/E is 17. The current at P/E 17.8 is historically speaking, rather high. If you look at the forward P/E, it comes in at a better place at 15.5. The Graham Price for 2009 of $33.14 is some 14% higher than the stock price. The stock price relationship to the Graham Price ranges from 25% higher to about the Graham Price. So, the current premium over the Graham Price is not bad. Both these values are based on earnings estimates.
The current dividend yield is 4%. The 5 year average is 3.9%. So the yield is slightly higher than the average and this is good. However, this points to a reasonable stock price, not a low one, as the average yield on the low price is just over 5%. The last thing to look at is the Price/Book Value Ratio. The 10 year average for this ratio is 1.95. The current one is 1.64, which is just less than 85% of the 10 year average. This is also good. These values are not based on estimates.
So, what do the analysts say? When I look at recommendations, I find Strong Buys, Buys and Holds. The most recommendations are Strong Buys. However, the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) Analysts with the Strong Buy recommendations talks about the recent dividend increase and the fact that earnings came in, in 2009 over estimates. Analysts with Buy recommendations talk about earnings will be increasing in 2011 and later. Analysts with Hold recommendations feel that there is too much pipeline capacity in Western Canada.
Over the medium to long term, this stock seems to do about as well as the TSX, plus you get a good dividend yield. I intend to hold on to what I have. I have too much of this stock to consider buying anymore.
TransCanada is a leader in energy infrastructure. Their network of pipeline taps into virtually all major gas supply basins in North America. TransCanada is one of the continent’s largest providers of gas storage and related services. It is a growing independent power producer. Its web site is www.transacanada.com . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/trp.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Looking at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling reports, I find that over the past year there has been some $22.5M of insider selling. For this company, insiders have more stock options than stocks. Insiders seem to be selling off their stock options as soon as they can. The good thing is the dividend increase. Because the dividend increase occurred after the 1st dividend was paid, the increase in dividends in 2009 over 2008 was 4.2%. They increased the dividend from $.36 a share to $.38 a share and this is an increase of 5.6%.
When I look at the 5 year average low P/E, I get a P/E of 13.5. The 5 year average high P/E is 17. The current at P/E 17.8 is historically speaking, rather high. If you look at the forward P/E, it comes in at a better place at 15.5. The Graham Price for 2009 of $33.14 is some 14% higher than the stock price. The stock price relationship to the Graham Price ranges from 25% higher to about the Graham Price. So, the current premium over the Graham Price is not bad. Both these values are based on earnings estimates.
The current dividend yield is 4%. The 5 year average is 3.9%. So the yield is slightly higher than the average and this is good. However, this points to a reasonable stock price, not a low one, as the average yield on the low price is just over 5%. The last thing to look at is the Price/Book Value Ratio. The 10 year average for this ratio is 1.95. The current one is 1.64, which is just less than 85% of the 10 year average. This is also good. These values are not based on estimates.
So, what do the analysts say? When I look at recommendations, I find Strong Buys, Buys and Holds. The most recommendations are Strong Buys. However, the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) Analysts with the Strong Buy recommendations talks about the recent dividend increase and the fact that earnings came in, in 2009 over estimates. Analysts with Buy recommendations talk about earnings will be increasing in 2011 and later. Analysts with Hold recommendations feel that there is too much pipeline capacity in Western Canada.
Over the medium to long term, this stock seems to do about as well as the TSX, plus you get a good dividend yield. I intend to hold on to what I have. I have too much of this stock to consider buying anymore.
TransCanada is a leader in energy infrastructure. Their network of pipeline taps into virtually all major gas supply basins in North America. TransCanada is one of the continent’s largest providers of gas storage and related services. It is a growing independent power producer. Its web site is www.transacanada.com . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/trp.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
TransCanada Corp
I would like to talk about this stock (TSX-TRP) today, as the 2009 annual report is in and I own this stock. I bought this stock initially in 2000 and I bought more in 2006. Overall, I have made 11.8% per year, including dividends, on this stock. For the stock I bought in 2006, I have made just over 7% per year. The 2006 purchases is less than 5 years old, and we are just coming out a recession, so the return on this purchase is not surprising.
This stock is on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). I bought the stock in 2000 at an opportune time. The company had been cutting their dividend payments in order to re-organize and get the company into shape for long term profitability. This company’s stock fell hard because of this. People who depend on dividends for their income can be an unforgiving lot, and get really upset at company when a trusted company cuts dividends.
The last two years has not been a great time for this company. They have lost ground in Revenues, Earnings and Cash Flow. For example, the 5 and 10 year growth figures for earnings are -.1% per year and 4.3% per year, respectively. When we look at revenue, this is also not a happy story. Since the company has been selling common shares to increase the number outstanding by about 12% per year, there is a difference between revenue growth and revenue per share growth. The 5 year growth in Revenue is 12% per year. However, the 5 year growth in Revenue per Shares is only 4.5% per year.
The bright spot is the 5 year growth in dividends, and this is 5.3% per year. The 10 year growth is, much lower, at 3% per year. The 10 year growth is lower because of the dividend decease in 2000. However, there is talk that this company may not be increasing their dividends anytime soon because of the purchase of a generating station in Queens, New York. Analysts, however, are saying positive things about this purchase. The company did increase that dividends in 2009, and they have increased their dividends every year since 2001.
The other bright spot is the growth in Book Value and the 5 and 10 year growth figures are 11.2% per year and 8.3% per year, respectively. The total return growth is also good over the last 5 and 10 year periods, coming in at 8% per year and 17% per year, respectively. When I look at the balance sheet, the Liquidity Ratio at 0.64 is low, but the Asset/Liability Ratio at 1.63 is very good. When I look at the Return on Equity, this has continued to be good. For example, the ROE of 2009 was 11.6% and the 5 year average is 12.7%.
I intend to keep the shares in this company I have. I will not be adding to this for the simple reason that this stock is already a good percentage of my portfolio. I never let any stock be too large a proportion of my portfolio. I am not concerned about the increase in the number of shares, because this company has been making acquisitions.
TransCanada is a leader in energy infrastructure. Their network of pipeline taps into virtually all major gas supply basins in North America. TransCanada is one of the continent’s largest providers of gas storage and related services. It is a growing independent power producer. Its web site is www.transacanada.com . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/trp.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
This stock is on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). I bought the stock in 2000 at an opportune time. The company had been cutting their dividend payments in order to re-organize and get the company into shape for long term profitability. This company’s stock fell hard because of this. People who depend on dividends for their income can be an unforgiving lot, and get really upset at company when a trusted company cuts dividends.
The last two years has not been a great time for this company. They have lost ground in Revenues, Earnings and Cash Flow. For example, the 5 and 10 year growth figures for earnings are -.1% per year and 4.3% per year, respectively. When we look at revenue, this is also not a happy story. Since the company has been selling common shares to increase the number outstanding by about 12% per year, there is a difference between revenue growth and revenue per share growth. The 5 year growth in Revenue is 12% per year. However, the 5 year growth in Revenue per Shares is only 4.5% per year.
The bright spot is the 5 year growth in dividends, and this is 5.3% per year. The 10 year growth is, much lower, at 3% per year. The 10 year growth is lower because of the dividend decease in 2000. However, there is talk that this company may not be increasing their dividends anytime soon because of the purchase of a generating station in Queens, New York. Analysts, however, are saying positive things about this purchase. The company did increase that dividends in 2009, and they have increased their dividends every year since 2001.
The other bright spot is the growth in Book Value and the 5 and 10 year growth figures are 11.2% per year and 8.3% per year, respectively. The total return growth is also good over the last 5 and 10 year periods, coming in at 8% per year and 17% per year, respectively. When I look at the balance sheet, the Liquidity Ratio at 0.64 is low, but the Asset/Liability Ratio at 1.63 is very good. When I look at the Return on Equity, this has continued to be good. For example, the ROE of 2009 was 11.6% and the 5 year average is 12.7%.
I intend to keep the shares in this company I have. I will not be adding to this for the simple reason that this stock is already a good percentage of my portfolio. I never let any stock be too large a proportion of my portfolio. I am not concerned about the increase in the number of shares, because this company has been making acquisitions.
TransCanada is a leader in energy infrastructure. Their network of pipeline taps into virtually all major gas supply basins in North America. TransCanada is one of the continent’s largest providers of gas storage and related services. It is a growing independent power producer. Its web site is www.transacanada.com . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/trp.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
IGM Financial Inc 2
I would like continue to talk today about this stock (TSX-IGM) as the 2009 annual report is in and I own this stock. I bought this stock in October 2006 and I have made a return, including dividends, of 2.9% per year. However, I expect my long term returns on this stock to more inline with the growth in Total Return that occurred over the last 10 years. This growth was 11.7% per year. I am currently earning a dividend yield on my original investment of 4.4%.
I first looked at the Insiders Buying and Insiders Selling information. What I found is that early last year there was director selling of just over $11M of shares. The problem with sales, especially ones in recessions, you never know why. People often just need the money. The company is currently buying back shares on the open market, but this is partly to help mitigate the dilutive effect of stock options issued under the Corporation's stock option plan. I would be happier if they raised the dividend.
Looking at P/E ratio, I find that the 5 year average Low P/E is 13 and the 5 year average high is 18.3. I get a current P/E of 15. So this ratio would point to a reasonable stock price. I get a Graham Price of $32.93 for 2010. The current price is just over 30% more. Even looking at the stock’s low prices, the stock price is seldom at or below the Graham Price. The Stock Price has often been much higher than this from the Graham Price. The thing to remember with both these measures is that they are based partly on earnings estimates.
Looking at the Price/Book Value Ratio, I find that the current ratio of 2.57 is some 85% of the 10 year average ratio of 3.02. Also, the current dividend yield of 4.74% is higher than the 5 year average of 4.2%. By both these measures, the stock price is certainly reasonable, if not low. Also, the thing with these measures is that they are not based on estimates.
When I look at analyst’s recommendations, I find that they cover the full range of recommendations from Strong Buy to Buy to Hold to Underperform to Sell. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The most common recommendations are Buys and Holds. The consensus is probably a Hold. The analysts that recommend holds most often talk about recently changing their recommendations from buy to hold because of the recent climb in its stock price. Analyst with buy recommendations talk about the fact that there is still a lot of money in money market funds and this money has started to migrate into higher margin Mutual Funds.
I am a long term investor, and I intend to hold on to the shares I currently have in this stock.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. Its web site is www.igmfinancial.com/english/ . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/igm.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
I first looked at the Insiders Buying and Insiders Selling information. What I found is that early last year there was director selling of just over $11M of shares. The problem with sales, especially ones in recessions, you never know why. People often just need the money. The company is currently buying back shares on the open market, but this is partly to help mitigate the dilutive effect of stock options issued under the Corporation's stock option plan. I would be happier if they raised the dividend.
Looking at P/E ratio, I find that the 5 year average Low P/E is 13 and the 5 year average high is 18.3. I get a current P/E of 15. So this ratio would point to a reasonable stock price. I get a Graham Price of $32.93 for 2010. The current price is just over 30% more. Even looking at the stock’s low prices, the stock price is seldom at or below the Graham Price. The Stock Price has often been much higher than this from the Graham Price. The thing to remember with both these measures is that they are based partly on earnings estimates.
Looking at the Price/Book Value Ratio, I find that the current ratio of 2.57 is some 85% of the 10 year average ratio of 3.02. Also, the current dividend yield of 4.74% is higher than the 5 year average of 4.2%. By both these measures, the stock price is certainly reasonable, if not low. Also, the thing with these measures is that they are not based on estimates.
When I look at analyst’s recommendations, I find that they cover the full range of recommendations from Strong Buy to Buy to Hold to Underperform to Sell. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The most common recommendations are Buys and Holds. The consensus is probably a Hold. The analysts that recommend holds most often talk about recently changing their recommendations from buy to hold because of the recent climb in its stock price. Analyst with buy recommendations talk about the fact that there is still a lot of money in money market funds and this money has started to migrate into higher margin Mutual Funds.
I am a long term investor, and I intend to hold on to the shares I currently have in this stock.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. Its web site is www.igmfinancial.com/english/ . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/igm.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
IGM Financial Inc
I would like today to talk this stock (TSX-IGM) as the 2009 annual report is in and I own this stock. I bought this stock in October 2006 and I have made a return, including dividends, of 2.9% per year. However, I expect my long term returns on this stock to more inline with the growth in Total Return that occurred over the last 10 years. This growth was 11.7% per year. I am currently earning a dividend yield on my original investment of 4.4%.
This stock is on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). A lot of companies where kicked off these lists this year because of no dividend increases for 2009. This company did not actually increase their dividends in 2009, but I have a fairly minimal increase in dividends received of 2.5% for 2009 because the 2008 increase was done half-way through the year. This stock’s 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is 12% and 15% respectively.
This company did not have a very good year in 2009 as revenue and earnings were down from that achieved in 2008. However, the good news is that since I reviewed this stock in April of last year, everyone has increased the estimates for earnings and cash flow for 2010. These estimates are even higher for 2011. I guess the bad news is that the 2009 earnings came in below the estimates. I got estimates for 2009 of $2.35 and the earnings were $2.12.
The return on equity for this stock was lower at 12.6% than it has been for some years. However, this is still a fairly good ROE. The 5 year average ROE of $18.2% is a good figure indeed. One of the good things about this stock is the strong balance sheet. The Asset/Liabilities Ratio is at 2.05. Any A/L Ratio of 1.50 and above is good.
I, of course, will be holding on to the shares I own. This stock has a long term average dividend over 3% and this is a good dividend yield. Some recent studies in the US show that stocks that provide yields between 2.5% and 4.5% provide the best long term returns.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. Its web site is www.igmfinancial.com/english/ . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/igm.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
This stock is on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). A lot of companies where kicked off these lists this year because of no dividend increases for 2009. This company did not actually increase their dividends in 2009, but I have a fairly minimal increase in dividends received of 2.5% for 2009 because the 2008 increase was done half-way through the year. This stock’s 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is 12% and 15% respectively.
This company did not have a very good year in 2009 as revenue and earnings were down from that achieved in 2008. However, the good news is that since I reviewed this stock in April of last year, everyone has increased the estimates for earnings and cash flow for 2010. These estimates are even higher for 2011. I guess the bad news is that the 2009 earnings came in below the estimates. I got estimates for 2009 of $2.35 and the earnings were $2.12.
The return on equity for this stock was lower at 12.6% than it has been for some years. However, this is still a fairly good ROE. The 5 year average ROE of $18.2% is a good figure indeed. One of the good things about this stock is the strong balance sheet. The Asset/Liabilities Ratio is at 2.05. Any A/L Ratio of 1.50 and above is good.
I, of course, will be holding on to the shares I own. This stock has a long term average dividend over 3% and this is a good dividend yield. Some recent studies in the US show that stocks that provide yields between 2.5% and 4.5% provide the best long term returns.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. Its web site is www.igmfinancial.com/english/ . See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/igm.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Husky Energy 2
I would like today to continue to talk about this stock (TSX-HSE) as the 2009 annual report is in and I own this stock. I bought this stock in July of 2008 and I have lost 21% annually on it. I guess I bought it at the wrong time, but you never know where the market will head. I bought it to try it out, as this is a stock with dividends that fluctuates with the price of the underlying resource. Even though the dividends fluctuate, you can still make great dividend returns on these resource stocks over the long term.
When looking at whether or not a stock is currently at a good buy price, I like to first look at Insider Buying and Insider Selling. This report, can, occasionally tell you something worthwhile. However, when I look at the report on this stock, I find a bit of insider buying. However, the amount is so small; it does not really tell us much. I think the one thing I should point out here is that this company is mostly foreign owned.
The next thing is the P/E ratio. The 5 year average low is 9.5 and the 5 year average high is 14.4. I get a current P/E of 13. This P/E is closer to the highs for this stock, than the lows. The sites that give a P/E based on last 12 months earnings get one even higher at 18. The other thing to point out is that the estimates for have been recently reduced. However, the Graham Price gives better news as I get a Graham Price of $29.69 for this stock and this is less than 2% lower than the current stock price.
The next thing to look at is the Price/Book Value. The current ratio is 1.78 and the 10 year average is 2.15. So the current ratio is some 83% lower than the long term average. A really good stock price is when the current ratio is 80% of the long term average, but this is close. The last thing to talk about is the Dividend Yield. The current yield is 4% and the 5 year average is 3.8%. These are close, but it is good to have the current one higher than the 5 year average. Also, the dividends have been coming down lately from a high that occurred in 2007.
When I look at analysts recommendations, I find that they range from Strong Buy all the way to Sell. However, the most common recommendation is Hold and there are an awful lot of Hold recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The analysts that give Strong Buy or Buy recommendations give higher stock price for the next 12 months and also give higher earnings and cash flows for 2010 and 2011. They also talk about a strong balance sheet and the current 4% dividend. Conversely, the analysts giving recommendations of Underperform and Sell have lower expectations as far a stock price and earnings. They also talk about the large amount of stock that is owned by Insiders.
I do not own a lot of this stock, but I do buy for the long term, and I will be holding on to what I currently own.
This company is one of Canada's largest energy and energy-related companies. The Company's operations include the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. Husky works in Western Canada, in off-shore Eastern Canada and in off-shore China and Indonesia. Its web site is www.huskyenergy.ca. This company is mostly foreign owned. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/hse.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
When looking at whether or not a stock is currently at a good buy price, I like to first look at Insider Buying and Insider Selling. This report, can, occasionally tell you something worthwhile. However, when I look at the report on this stock, I find a bit of insider buying. However, the amount is so small; it does not really tell us much. I think the one thing I should point out here is that this company is mostly foreign owned.
The next thing is the P/E ratio. The 5 year average low is 9.5 and the 5 year average high is 14.4. I get a current P/E of 13. This P/E is closer to the highs for this stock, than the lows. The sites that give a P/E based on last 12 months earnings get one even higher at 18. The other thing to point out is that the estimates for have been recently reduced. However, the Graham Price gives better news as I get a Graham Price of $29.69 for this stock and this is less than 2% lower than the current stock price.
The next thing to look at is the Price/Book Value. The current ratio is 1.78 and the 10 year average is 2.15. So the current ratio is some 83% lower than the long term average. A really good stock price is when the current ratio is 80% of the long term average, but this is close. The last thing to talk about is the Dividend Yield. The current yield is 4% and the 5 year average is 3.8%. These are close, but it is good to have the current one higher than the 5 year average. Also, the dividends have been coming down lately from a high that occurred in 2007.
When I look at analysts recommendations, I find that they range from Strong Buy all the way to Sell. However, the most common recommendation is Hold and there are an awful lot of Hold recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The analysts that give Strong Buy or Buy recommendations give higher stock price for the next 12 months and also give higher earnings and cash flows for 2010 and 2011. They also talk about a strong balance sheet and the current 4% dividend. Conversely, the analysts giving recommendations of Underperform and Sell have lower expectations as far a stock price and earnings. They also talk about the large amount of stock that is owned by Insiders.
I do not own a lot of this stock, but I do buy for the long term, and I will be holding on to what I currently own.
This company is one of Canada's largest energy and energy-related companies. The Company's operations include the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. Husky works in Western Canada, in off-shore Eastern Canada and in off-shore China and Indonesia. Its web site is www.huskyenergy.ca. This company is mostly foreign owned. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/hse.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, April 9, 2010
Husky Energy
I would like today to talk this stock (TSX-HSE) as the 2009 annual report is in and I own this stock. I do not own much, as it is a resource stock. I bought this stock in July of 2008 and I have lost 21% annually on it. I guess I bought it at the wrong time, but you never know where the market will head. I bought it to try it out, as this is a stock with dividends that fluctuates with the price of the underlying resource. Even though the dividends fluctuate, you can still make great dividend returns on these resource stocks over the long term.
This stock was briefly on one of the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers . Although, when I bought it, I knew it was a resource stock, and that the dividend will change with the price of oil. This also illustrates why you cannot just pick dividend stocks off these lists and expect to receive a dividend stock with increasing dividends.
Although this stock did not have a very good year in 2009, most of the growth figures a quite good. For example, the 5 and 10 year growth in Total Returns are 20% and 21% per year, respectively. I, however, should mention that this stock has only been paying dividends since 2001, so I have only 8 years of dividend information on this stock. This stock also has a habit of paying extra dividends when the company feels it can afford to.
The worse figures are from the growth in cash flow. The 5 and 10 year growth figures are -4% and 9% per year, respectively. This is because cash flow dropped some 70% in 2009 from the cash flow earned in 2008. Earnings did better and the 5 and 10 year growth in earnings are 7% and 42% per year, respectively. Earnings dropped in 2009 also. From 2008 to 2009, there was a 60% drop in earnings.
When I look at liquidity, I find that the 5 year average is just 0.97. However, the Liquidity Ratio for 2009 is better at 1.13. Also, they have enough cash flow to fund current liabilities. The Asset/Liability Ratio is much better, with a 5 year average of 2.13 and a Ratio of 2.21 for 2009. Any A/L Ratio at or over 1.50 is good. The Return on Equity Ratio also took a hit in 2009, coming in at 7.3%. The 5 year average at 23% is very good.
I plan to hold on to this stock and perhaps buy some more at a future point. All stocks are depressed at the moment. I believe that this stock will perform, over the long term, as I had expected when I first bought it.
This company is one of Canada's largest energy and energy-related companies. The Company's operations include the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. Husky works in Western Canada, in off-shore Eastern Canada and in off-shore China and Indonesia. Its web site is www.huskyenergy.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/hse.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
This stock was briefly on one of the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers . Although, when I bought it, I knew it was a resource stock, and that the dividend will change with the price of oil. This also illustrates why you cannot just pick dividend stocks off these lists and expect to receive a dividend stock with increasing dividends.
Although this stock did not have a very good year in 2009, most of the growth figures a quite good. For example, the 5 and 10 year growth in Total Returns are 20% and 21% per year, respectively. I, however, should mention that this stock has only been paying dividends since 2001, so I have only 8 years of dividend information on this stock. This stock also has a habit of paying extra dividends when the company feels it can afford to.
The worse figures are from the growth in cash flow. The 5 and 10 year growth figures are -4% and 9% per year, respectively. This is because cash flow dropped some 70% in 2009 from the cash flow earned in 2008. Earnings did better and the 5 and 10 year growth in earnings are 7% and 42% per year, respectively. Earnings dropped in 2009 also. From 2008 to 2009, there was a 60% drop in earnings.
When I look at liquidity, I find that the 5 year average is just 0.97. However, the Liquidity Ratio for 2009 is better at 1.13. Also, they have enough cash flow to fund current liabilities. The Asset/Liability Ratio is much better, with a 5 year average of 2.13 and a Ratio of 2.21 for 2009. Any A/L Ratio at or over 1.50 is good. The Return on Equity Ratio also took a hit in 2009, coming in at 7.3%. The 5 year average at 23% is very good.
I plan to hold on to this stock and perhaps buy some more at a future point. All stocks are depressed at the moment. I believe that this stock will perform, over the long term, as I had expected when I first bought it.
This company is one of Canada's largest energy and energy-related companies. The Company's operations include the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. Husky works in Western Canada, in off-shore Eastern Canada and in off-shore China and Indonesia. Its web site is www.huskyenergy.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/hse.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
State of My Dividends, Q1 2010 2
Yesterday, I updated my spreadsheet on dividends. For all my stocks, I am showing in the “10” (for 2010) column, if a company has actually increased their dividend yet for the current year of 2010. In the “div” column preceding, I show the percentage increase in the dividends for the company’s financial year ending in 2010. I will continue today to talk about my stocks that have increased their dividends in the first quarter of 2010.
The first stock I want to talk about today is one of my favorites. That stock is Fortis Inc (TSX-FTS). I have just recently reviewed this stock because of receipt of the 2009 annual report. This stock has been raising their dividends every year since 1973. That is, they have raised their dividend every year over the past 36 years. The dividends have been increased on average of 14% per year over the last 5 years. Their 10 year average dividend increases are a little lower, at 8.7% per year. For the stock in Fortis that I bought in 1987, I am seeing a yield of over 15% on my original investment. The dividend increase this year is just 7.7%, but considering the economic climate, it is a good increase. See the spreadsheet.
The next stock to talk about is Metro Inc (TSX-MRU.A). This stock just increased their dividend by over 25%. This is an excellent increase, although the yield on this stock is quite low. The yield is currently at 1.7%. For this stock, the 5 and 10 year increases in the dividends has been 10.6% and 15.7% per year. The thing is, the dividend increases were much higher in the years from 1999 to 2005. Also, these rates a much higher than inflation, and if you live off dividends, this is a very good thing. See the spreadsheet.
Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH) is another of my stocks with a dividend increase in the first quarter of 2010. This stock has not been paying a dividend very long, as they just started in 2002. The stock’s dividend yields are low, with a 5 year average of just over 1.3%. The 5 and 10 year dividend increases are 14.9% and 16.5% per year. These are very good increases. The current one is a bit lower, at only a 12.5% increase. The dividends on this stock are a bit erratic as there was an 11% decrease in dividends in 2004 and in 2009, there was no increase. It is a bit hard at the moment to know if this stock will end up being a good dividend paying stock. See the spreadsheet.
The last stock to talk about is Barclays Bank (NYSE-BCS). This is the only foreign stock I own and it is in my US Trading Account. This is a bank stock that had a lot of problems in our recent crisis. It stopped its dividend payments in the first part of 2009 and in the end gave me one quarterly dividend of $.066 US. However, in March of this year, it increased it dividend to $.090 US. On an annualized basis, this is an increase of 37.5%. I do think this stock is on the way to recovery, but it has a long way to go. See the spreadsheet.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
The first stock I want to talk about today is one of my favorites. That stock is Fortis Inc (TSX-FTS). I have just recently reviewed this stock because of receipt of the 2009 annual report. This stock has been raising their dividends every year since 1973. That is, they have raised their dividend every year over the past 36 years. The dividends have been increased on average of 14% per year over the last 5 years. Their 10 year average dividend increases are a little lower, at 8.7% per year. For the stock in Fortis that I bought in 1987, I am seeing a yield of over 15% on my original investment. The dividend increase this year is just 7.7%, but considering the economic climate, it is a good increase. See the spreadsheet.
The next stock to talk about is Metro Inc (TSX-MRU.A). This stock just increased their dividend by over 25%. This is an excellent increase, although the yield on this stock is quite low. The yield is currently at 1.7%. For this stock, the 5 and 10 year increases in the dividends has been 10.6% and 15.7% per year. The thing is, the dividend increases were much higher in the years from 1999 to 2005. Also, these rates a much higher than inflation, and if you live off dividends, this is a very good thing. See the spreadsheet.
Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH) is another of my stocks with a dividend increase in the first quarter of 2010. This stock has not been paying a dividend very long, as they just started in 2002. The stock’s dividend yields are low, with a 5 year average of just over 1.3%. The 5 and 10 year dividend increases are 14.9% and 16.5% per year. These are very good increases. The current one is a bit lower, at only a 12.5% increase. The dividends on this stock are a bit erratic as there was an 11% decrease in dividends in 2004 and in 2009, there was no increase. It is a bit hard at the moment to know if this stock will end up being a good dividend paying stock. See the spreadsheet.
The last stock to talk about is Barclays Bank (NYSE-BCS). This is the only foreign stock I own and it is in my US Trading Account. This is a bank stock that had a lot of problems in our recent crisis. It stopped its dividend payments in the first part of 2009 and in the end gave me one quarterly dividend of $.066 US. However, in March of this year, it increased it dividend to $.090 US. On an annualized basis, this is an increase of 37.5%. I do think this stock is on the way to recovery, but it has a long way to go. See the spreadsheet.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
State of My Dividends, Q1 2010
Today, I am updating my spreadsheet on dividends. For all my stocks, I have shown in the “10” (for 2010) column, if a company has actually increased their dividend yet for the current year of 2010. In the “div” column preceding, I show the percentage increase in the dividends for the company’s financial year ending in 2010.
For the first quarter of this year, I have had 7 companies increase their dividends. Since I do dividend calculations based on the applicable company’s financial year, I have also started columns for 2011. I will explain this shortly, but it only currently affects Alimentation Couche Tard (TSX-ATD.B) for this quarter.
There are other increases shown in the columns for 2010 and this is because when a company increases its dividend part way through their financial year, the total dividends for the following financial year will also be affect.
First I will explain the increase in 2010 which shows a “N” in the “10” column. Take the stock Canadian Real Estate Trust (TSX-REF.UN). I have an increase in the “Div” and “09” fields of 1.2% and “Y”. This means that the dividends paid in 2009 were 1.2% higher than for 2008. Since this increase occurred in November of 2009, it will affect the dividends that I receive in 2010. In 2009, I received 10 dividend payments of $.1133 and 2 dividends payments of $.115. This totals $1.363 of dividends per share for 2009. This was an increase of 1.2% over 2008 dividends of $1.3471. If I receive 12 dividends of $.115 for 2010, I will receive in 2010 dividends of $1.38 per share. This is an increase of 1.25% over dividends received in 2009. However, this company hasn’t actually increased their dividends for 2010. At least, they have not increased them yet. See the spreadsheet.
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. B (TSX-ATD.B) only started to pay dividends 2006 and they pay dividends at a very low rate. The yield is usually under 1% and they started out with a yield of just .40%. However, their average annual increase in dividends has been at a rate of almost 12%. Accordingly, to my spreadsheet, after holding this company for some 10 years, you would be looking at a yield on your original investment of about 6%. As I said above, the recent dividend increase I received will affect my dividends received also in 2011. This is because this company has a financial year ending in April of each year. See the spreadsheet.
The next stock to talk about is Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR). This stock’s yield is also not very high, and the 5 year average is just 1.6%. Since the company usually increases their dividend at the beginning of each year, the increases do not affect the following year. They have a financial year ending in December of each year. Although this company has a 5 year average dividend increase of just over 20%, the recent dividend increases have been much lower. The increases were high between 2005 and 2007 and since then have been much lower. The current increase is just 6.9%. See the spreadsheet. This company is still being affected by the current recession.
The last company I will talk about today is Enbridge Inc (TSX.ENB). The current dividend increase is very good, coming in at almost 14.9%. This is higher than the 5 year average of increases of just over 10% per year. Last year’s increase was also healthy at just over 12%. This stock has been a favorite of a number of analysts lately. The yield on this stock is also not bad as it is has an average yield over the last 5 years of around 3.2%. After about 10 years of holding this stock, you can expect a return on your original investment around 10% per year. If you live off your dividends, this is great. See the spreadsheet.
Tomorrow, I will continue talking about my stocks with dividend increases in this first quarter of this year.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
For the first quarter of this year, I have had 7 companies increase their dividends. Since I do dividend calculations based on the applicable company’s financial year, I have also started columns for 2011. I will explain this shortly, but it only currently affects Alimentation Couche Tard (TSX-ATD.B) for this quarter.
There are other increases shown in the columns for 2010 and this is because when a company increases its dividend part way through their financial year, the total dividends for the following financial year will also be affect.
First I will explain the increase in 2010 which shows a “N” in the “10” column. Take the stock Canadian Real Estate Trust (TSX-REF.UN). I have an increase in the “Div” and “09” fields of 1.2% and “Y”. This means that the dividends paid in 2009 were 1.2% higher than for 2008. Since this increase occurred in November of 2009, it will affect the dividends that I receive in 2010. In 2009, I received 10 dividend payments of $.1133 and 2 dividends payments of $.115. This totals $1.363 of dividends per share for 2009. This was an increase of 1.2% over 2008 dividends of $1.3471. If I receive 12 dividends of $.115 for 2010, I will receive in 2010 dividends of $1.38 per share. This is an increase of 1.25% over dividends received in 2009. However, this company hasn’t actually increased their dividends for 2010. At least, they have not increased them yet. See the spreadsheet.
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. B (TSX-ATD.B) only started to pay dividends 2006 and they pay dividends at a very low rate. The yield is usually under 1% and they started out with a yield of just .40%. However, their average annual increase in dividends has been at a rate of almost 12%. Accordingly, to my spreadsheet, after holding this company for some 10 years, you would be looking at a yield on your original investment of about 6%. As I said above, the recent dividend increase I received will affect my dividends received also in 2011. This is because this company has a financial year ending in April of each year. See the spreadsheet.
The next stock to talk about is Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR). This stock’s yield is also not very high, and the 5 year average is just 1.6%. Since the company usually increases their dividend at the beginning of each year, the increases do not affect the following year. They have a financial year ending in December of each year. Although this company has a 5 year average dividend increase of just over 20%, the recent dividend increases have been much lower. The increases were high between 2005 and 2007 and since then have been much lower. The current increase is just 6.9%. See the spreadsheet. This company is still being affected by the current recession.
The last company I will talk about today is Enbridge Inc (TSX.ENB). The current dividend increase is very good, coming in at almost 14.9%. This is higher than the 5 year average of increases of just over 10% per year. Last year’s increase was also healthy at just over 12%. This stock has been a favorite of a number of analysts lately. The yield on this stock is also not bad as it is has an average yield over the last 5 years of around 3.2%. After about 10 years of holding this stock, you can expect a return on your original investment around 10% per year. If you live off your dividends, this is great. See the spreadsheet.
Tomorrow, I will continue talking about my stocks with dividend increases in this first quarter of this year.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Fortis Inc 2
Today I would like to continue my blog about my favorite utility stocks of Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS). I first bought this stock for my trading account in 1987. Since that time, I have made a total return of 13.5% per year. This has been a great stock. Over the past 5 years, I have made a return of 14% per year. They are, of course, on the dividend lists that I follow. The other thing to point out is that I have had this stock for some 23 years and I am making a return of 15.7% on my original investment.
I guess the first thing to talk about is the P/E ratio. This stock has a 5 year P/E low of 15 and a 5 year P/E high of 19.7. The current P/E, according to what earnings estimates I picked up is 17.6. This is about half way between these two ratios. The next thing to look at is the Price/Book Value ratio. The current ratio is 1.40 and the 10 year average is 1.61, so the current is only some 87% of the long term average. This points to a relatively good current price. The next thing is the yield. The 5 year average is 3.3% and the current yield is 3.7%. This also points to a relatively good current stock price. The last thing I want to look at is the Graham Price. I get a current Graham Price of $27.70. The stock price is $29.00, so there is a difference of 4.7%. This is not bad. So what does all this say? Basically, it is saying that the current stock price is reasonable, but it has been better.
I also have looked at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling reports and they show some more selling than buying. However, the amounts are so small, we really do not learn anything about what the insider feel about this stock. The best indicator of how insider feel is the recent dividend increase of 7.7%. This shows confidence in how the company will do in the near future.
When I look at analysts recommendations, I see Strong Buys to Hold ratings. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The analysts’ with the Hold recommendations seem to feel that the stock price will only rise to perhaps $30 in the next 12 months. The analysts’ with the Buy recommendations talk about how this company has consistently created shareholder value and also that this company has a long history of increasing their dividends yearly.
I planned to continue to hold the stock I own. I will not buy any more for the simple reason this stock holding is already a good percentage of my portfolio. The thing with stock prices is that they generally have a seasonality to them. They tend to be higher at this time of the year and lower in the fall.
Fortis is a diversified, international distribution utility holding company. This company provides gas and electricity to customers across Canada, through regulated holdings that include a natural gas utility in British Columbia, and electric utilities in 5 provinces in Canada, and 3 Caribbean countries. It owns non-regulated hydroelectric generation assets across Canada and in Belize and upper New York State. It also owns and operates hotels in eight Canadian provinces as well as commercial real estate in Atlantic Canada. Its web site is www.fortisinc.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fts.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
I guess the first thing to talk about is the P/E ratio. This stock has a 5 year P/E low of 15 and a 5 year P/E high of 19.7. The current P/E, according to what earnings estimates I picked up is 17.6. This is about half way between these two ratios. The next thing to look at is the Price/Book Value ratio. The current ratio is 1.40 and the 10 year average is 1.61, so the current is only some 87% of the long term average. This points to a relatively good current price. The next thing is the yield. The 5 year average is 3.3% and the current yield is 3.7%. This also points to a relatively good current stock price. The last thing I want to look at is the Graham Price. I get a current Graham Price of $27.70. The stock price is $29.00, so there is a difference of 4.7%. This is not bad. So what does all this say? Basically, it is saying that the current stock price is reasonable, but it has been better.
I also have looked at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling reports and they show some more selling than buying. However, the amounts are so small, we really do not learn anything about what the insider feel about this stock. The best indicator of how insider feel is the recent dividend increase of 7.7%. This shows confidence in how the company will do in the near future.
When I look at analysts recommendations, I see Strong Buys to Hold ratings. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The analysts’ with the Hold recommendations seem to feel that the stock price will only rise to perhaps $30 in the next 12 months. The analysts’ with the Buy recommendations talk about how this company has consistently created shareholder value and also that this company has a long history of increasing their dividends yearly.
I planned to continue to hold the stock I own. I will not buy any more for the simple reason this stock holding is already a good percentage of my portfolio. The thing with stock prices is that they generally have a seasonality to them. They tend to be higher at this time of the year and lower in the fall.
Fortis is a diversified, international distribution utility holding company. This company provides gas and electricity to customers across Canada, through regulated holdings that include a natural gas utility in British Columbia, and electric utilities in 5 provinces in Canada, and 3 Caribbean countries. It owns non-regulated hydroelectric generation assets across Canada and in Belize and upper New York State. It also owns and operates hotels in eight Canadian provinces as well as commercial real estate in Atlantic Canada. Its web site is www.fortisinc.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fts.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Fortis Inc
I would like today to talk about one of my favorite utility stocks (TSX-FTS). I first bought this stock for my trading account in 1987. Since that time, I have made a total return of 13.5% per year. This has been a great stock. Over the past 5 years, I have made a return of 14% per year. They are, of course, on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices).
This stock is not perfect by any means, but it does have a good story to tell. The growth in Revenue, Earnings, Dividends, Book Value and Total Return are all very good. For example, the Book Value growth for the last 5 and 10 years is 14.5% and 12% per year, respectively. The dividend growth for the last 5 and 10 years is 14% and 8.7% per year, respective. These are very good growth figures.
However, when you look at the growth in cash flow, this has not been so great. These growth figures for the last 5 and 10 year are 5.5% and 8.7% per year. The 10 year growth figure is not bad, but the 5 year growth figure is a little low. The next thing that is not so good is the Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liabilities Ratio. The Liquidity ratio is just skating by on 1.00 and the Asset/Liabilities Ratio is just below 1.50. However, any analysts report I have seen rate this stock at a low risk level.
I guess the last things to mention are the Return on Equity and the Accrual Ratio. The average ROE for the last 5 year is 8%. The ROE for the year ending in 2009 is a little low at 7.4%. Also, the Accrual Ratio is a bit high at 5.6%, but this ratio is often high.
What you expect from a utility company is a solid 8% per year total return. Any that can produce a solid 13% per year is a good company. I have a fair bit of this stock, but I plan to hold on to what I have. After the holidays, I will talk about what the analysts say about this stock.
Fortis is a diversified, international distribution utility holding company. This company provides gas and electricity to customers across Canada, through regulated holdings that include a natural gas utility in British Columbia, and electric utilities in 5 provinces in Canada, and 3 Caribbean countries. It owns non-regulated hydroelectric generation assets across Canada and in Belize and upper New York State. It also owns and operates hotels in eight Canadian provinces as well as commercial real estate in Atlantic Canada. Its web site is www.fortisinc.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fts.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
This stock is not perfect by any means, but it does have a good story to tell. The growth in Revenue, Earnings, Dividends, Book Value and Total Return are all very good. For example, the Book Value growth for the last 5 and 10 years is 14.5% and 12% per year, respectively. The dividend growth for the last 5 and 10 years is 14% and 8.7% per year, respective. These are very good growth figures.
However, when you look at the growth in cash flow, this has not been so great. These growth figures for the last 5 and 10 year are 5.5% and 8.7% per year. The 10 year growth figure is not bad, but the 5 year growth figure is a little low. The next thing that is not so good is the Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liabilities Ratio. The Liquidity ratio is just skating by on 1.00 and the Asset/Liabilities Ratio is just below 1.50. However, any analysts report I have seen rate this stock at a low risk level.
I guess the last things to mention are the Return on Equity and the Accrual Ratio. The average ROE for the last 5 year is 8%. The ROE for the year ending in 2009 is a little low at 7.4%. Also, the Accrual Ratio is a bit high at 5.6%, but this ratio is often high.
What you expect from a utility company is a solid 8% per year total return. Any that can produce a solid 13% per year is a good company. I have a fair bit of this stock, but I plan to hold on to what I have. After the holidays, I will talk about what the analysts say about this stock.
Fortis is a diversified, international distribution utility holding company. This company provides gas and electricity to customers across Canada, through regulated holdings that include a natural gas utility in British Columbia, and electric utilities in 5 provinces in Canada, and 3 Caribbean countries. It owns non-regulated hydroelectric generation assets across Canada and in Belize and upper New York State. It also owns and operates hotels in eight Canadian provinces as well as commercial real estate in Atlantic Canada. Its web site is www.fortisinc.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fts.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)