Brookfield Asset Management is on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm and is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com/.
There has been a lot of insider buying lately, especially after the price of this stock dipped below $30.00 and this, of course, is a very good sign. No one expects this stock to earn as much this year as last year, but there is a big variation in what the earnings will be. The ratings on this stock go from Hold to Strong Buy, but the majority are at the Buy rating. Everyone seems to expect the stock price to be higher in 12 months.
Looking at the positives for this stock, the Dividends have been raised this year. The current P/E at 16.7 is slightly lower than the 5 year of 17. The dividend yield is at 3.5%, which is higher than the 5 year average of 1.5%. The current price of $18.53 is getting close to the Graham Price of $17.51. The Accrual Ratio is at a much better .52% than it was at the time of the last Annual Statement
A negative for this September 2008 quarter report, is that the Asset/Liability ratio is slightly lower at 1.12 than at the end 2007 where is was at 1.17 and the 5 year average of 1.18. Also, the Return on Equity (ROE) is at 10.9% compared to the 5 year average of 20.3%.
Looking at the charts, this stock has not done as well as the TSX or the Real Estate Index for periods under a year. For Periods 5 years and over, it has done better than both these indexes. For a 3 year period, it has done better than the Real Estate Index, but worse than the TSX.
This Canadian Asset Managing company invests in and operates a variety of assets for its own behalf as well as co-investors. It is focused on property, power and infrastructure assets. It operates in Canada, US and internationally. The subsidiaries of the Company are Brookfield Homes Corporation, Brookfield Properties Corporation, BPO Properties Limited, Multiplex, Brookfield Power Inc., Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund, Brascan Brasil, S.A., Brascan Residential Properties, S.A. and Brookfield Investments Corporation. Its web site is www.brookfield.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bam.htm. I have reloaded my spreadsheet to include the September 2008 quarterly report.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Brookfield Asset Management
Brookfield Asset Management is on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm. Both Brookfield Properties and Brookfield Asset Management (TSX-BAM.A) are on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com/. Brookfield Properties (TSX-BPO) is on the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices). Note that this Brookfield Properties is own 51% by Brookfield Asset Management Company.
This company seems to be a much better one than Brookfield Properties. There is the same problem with valuing this company as with Brookfield Properties, as the Financial Statement switched from reporting in CDN$ to US$. An added problem with this company is that no one had the company’s TSX stock prices prior to part way through 2004 and I had to use the US$ stock prices from the NYSE.
Even though the dividends are not growing as strongly as for Brookfield Properties, I think that this is a safer stock. I like the growth in Revenues and Cash Flow. If you cannot grow Revenues, you will not grow Cash Flow or Earnings per Share (EPS). The EPS for the last 10 years is not great, but they have done much better for the 5 year period. The 5 and 10 years to the last annual statement has seen the Revenue grow by 14% and 18% per year respectively, the Closing Price grow by 13% and 18% per year, respectively, the Cash Flow grow by 44% and 23% per year, respectively, the book value by 9% and 4% per year, respectively, and the EPS for the last 5 and 10 years have grown by 66% and 2% per year respectively.
What I find negative about this stock is that at the last Annual Statement of 2007, the Graham price was quite a bit below the Closing Price, the P/E ratio was 28, which is quite high and the Accrual Ratio was very high at 8.8%. The Asset/Liability Ratio is lower than what I would like at 1.17 and the growth in book value, as shown above, is not great.
I will take another look at this stock tomorrow to see what analyst have to say about it and also, how well this stock has done since the 2007 Annual Report.
This Canadian Asset Managing company invests in and operates a variety of assets on its own behalf as well as co-investors. It is focused on property, power and infrastructure assets. It operates in Canada, US and internationally. The subsidiaries of the Company are Brookfield Homes Corporation, Brookfield Properties Corporation, BPO Properties Limited, Multiplex, Brookfield Power Inc., Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund, Brascan Brasil, S.A., Brascan Residential Properties, S.A. and Brookfield Investments Corporation. Its web site is www.brookfield.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bam.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
This company seems to be a much better one than Brookfield Properties. There is the same problem with valuing this company as with Brookfield Properties, as the Financial Statement switched from reporting in CDN$ to US$. An added problem with this company is that no one had the company’s TSX stock prices prior to part way through 2004 and I had to use the US$ stock prices from the NYSE.
Even though the dividends are not growing as strongly as for Brookfield Properties, I think that this is a safer stock. I like the growth in Revenues and Cash Flow. If you cannot grow Revenues, you will not grow Cash Flow or Earnings per Share (EPS). The EPS for the last 10 years is not great, but they have done much better for the 5 year period. The 5 and 10 years to the last annual statement has seen the Revenue grow by 14% and 18% per year respectively, the Closing Price grow by 13% and 18% per year, respectively, the Cash Flow grow by 44% and 23% per year, respectively, the book value by 9% and 4% per year, respectively, and the EPS for the last 5 and 10 years have grown by 66% and 2% per year respectively.
What I find negative about this stock is that at the last Annual Statement of 2007, the Graham price was quite a bit below the Closing Price, the P/E ratio was 28, which is quite high and the Accrual Ratio was very high at 8.8%. The Asset/Liability Ratio is lower than what I would like at 1.17 and the growth in book value, as shown above, is not great.
I will take another look at this stock tomorrow to see what analyst have to say about it and also, how well this stock has done since the 2007 Annual Report.
This Canadian Asset Managing company invests in and operates a variety of assets on its own behalf as well as co-investors. It is focused on property, power and infrastructure assets. It operates in Canada, US and internationally. The subsidiaries of the Company are Brookfield Homes Corporation, Brookfield Properties Corporation, BPO Properties Limited, Multiplex, Brookfield Power Inc., Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund, Brascan Brasil, S.A., Brascan Residential Properties, S.A. and Brookfield Investments Corporation. Its web site is www.brookfield.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bam.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
When I Stopped Working in 1999
In 1999, when I got laid off work, I knew that I had reached my investment goal, but at first, I did not think I could stop working. My salary was higher than I thought it would be and I thought I would need more income from my portfolio to retire. Also, my son was about to go to college.
I had always used spreadsheets to try to establish where I am financially, so here again; I tried to gage where I was. I used my previous tax package of 1998 to try to figure out what my taxes would be if I had no job and lived off my investments. I was very pleasantly shocked. If you do not work, you do not pay UI or CPP and if your income is mostly dividends rather than salary, taxes are a lot less.
Half of my investments were in trading accounts and half were in RRSP accounts. I realized that I should be taking money out of my RRSP accounts so as not to run down my trading accounts and keep some sort of balance between the two types. However, even doing this I found that, while there was a big gap between my gross income, before and after if I stopped working; it was a different story concerning my net income. There was no gap in my net income. In fact, I could spend a bit more.
This was the reason I felt I could stop working and therefore, I stopped looking for work. Now some 9 years later, and after two bear markets, I have more money than when I stopped working and I have lived off my investments quite nicely for these years. Hopefully the next 9 will be just as good.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
I had always used spreadsheets to try to establish where I am financially, so here again; I tried to gage where I was. I used my previous tax package of 1998 to try to figure out what my taxes would be if I had no job and lived off my investments. I was very pleasantly shocked. If you do not work, you do not pay UI or CPP and if your income is mostly dividends rather than salary, taxes are a lot less.
Half of my investments were in trading accounts and half were in RRSP accounts. I realized that I should be taking money out of my RRSP accounts so as not to run down my trading accounts and keep some sort of balance between the two types. However, even doing this I found that, while there was a big gap between my gross income, before and after if I stopped working; it was a different story concerning my net income. There was no gap in my net income. In fact, I could spend a bit more.
This was the reason I felt I could stop working and therefore, I stopped looking for work. Now some 9 years later, and after two bear markets, I have more money than when I stopped working and I have lived off my investments quite nicely for these years. Hopefully the next 9 will be just as good.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Brookfield Properties 3
Brookfield Properties is on the Dividend Aristocrats list. Both Brookfield Properties and Brookfield Asset Management are on the Dividend Achievers list. Brookfield Asset Management is on Mike Higgs’ list. See the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com/, The Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and Mike Higgs' list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm. I have not done a spreadsheet yet on Brookfield Asset Management.
Of the two things going for this stock, the increasing dividend and stock price, both have been hit by recent events. It would appear that the stock dividend is only increasing by US $.01, which will be more for Canadians because of the exchange rate. However, these dividends are declared in US$. Because of recent price changes, the Graham Price is down above the stock price.
A couple of good things is that the Accrual Ratio has turned negative (but not by much) and the Cash Flow is expected to be positive this year. There are ratings on this stock from Strong Buy to Hold, but most ratings seem to be in the Buy region. Analyst 12 month target stock price for this stock has been revised lower lately, as have their target cash flow and target EPS.
Because of recent problems, this stock and the TSX Real Estate Index is below the TSX Index for all periods from Year to Date to 10 years. Also, the Dividend Yield has gone up and the P/E has come down, as would be expected. The Asset/Liability Ratio has improved, but only from 1.17 to 1.18.
Brookfield Properties is a leading North American commercial real estate company that invests in premier-quality office properties in high-growth markets driven by financial service, government, and energy tenants. The portfolio is composed of office properties in 12 top U.S. and Canadian markets. Note that this company is own 51% by Brookfield Asset Management Company (TSX-BAM.A). IIts web site is www.brookfieldproperties.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bpo.htm. I have reloaded my spreadsheet to include the September 2008 quarterly report.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Of the two things going for this stock, the increasing dividend and stock price, both have been hit by recent events. It would appear that the stock dividend is only increasing by US $.01, which will be more for Canadians because of the exchange rate. However, these dividends are declared in US$. Because of recent price changes, the Graham Price is down above the stock price.
A couple of good things is that the Accrual Ratio has turned negative (but not by much) and the Cash Flow is expected to be positive this year. There are ratings on this stock from Strong Buy to Hold, but most ratings seem to be in the Buy region. Analyst 12 month target stock price for this stock has been revised lower lately, as have their target cash flow and target EPS.
Because of recent problems, this stock and the TSX Real Estate Index is below the TSX Index for all periods from Year to Date to 10 years. Also, the Dividend Yield has gone up and the P/E has come down, as would be expected. The Asset/Liability Ratio has improved, but only from 1.17 to 1.18.
Brookfield Properties is a leading North American commercial real estate company that invests in premier-quality office properties in high-growth markets driven by financial service, government, and energy tenants. The portfolio is composed of office properties in 12 top U.S. and Canadian markets. Note that this company is own 51% by Brookfield Asset Management Company (TSX-BAM.A). IIts web site is www.brookfieldproperties.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bpo.htm. I have reloaded my spreadsheet to include the September 2008 quarterly report.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Brookfield Properties 2
I was going today to look at some stocks on the Dividend Aristocrats List that I do not have. The first one was Brookfield Properties (TSX-BPO). However, since I had no spreadsheet on this, I had to start from scratch. The spreadsheet on this stock took longer than I expected. Note that this company is own 51% by Brookfield Asset Management Company (TSX-BAM.A).
Brookfield Properties is on the Dividend Aristocrats list. Both Brookfield Properties and Brookfield Asset Management are on the Dividend Achievers list. Brookfield Asset Management is on Mike Higgs’ list. I have not done a spreadsheet yet on Brookfield Asset Management. See the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com/, The Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and Mike Higgs' list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm.
The Last Annual Statement is dated 31 December 2007. First, the good news, the 5 and 10 years to the last annual statement has seen the Dividends grow by 14% and 19.8% per year respectively, and the Closing Price grow by 11.5% and 8% per year, respectively.
In the not too bad category, the 5 and 10 years to the last annual statement has seen the Revenue grow by 5.8% and 6.6% per year respectively, but this becomes worse if you look at the Revenue per Share that has grown by 4% and 3.8% per year respectively. The Return on Equity (ROE) is not bad at 7.9% and the Accrual Ratio at 2.9% at December 2007.
Now for the bits I do not like. The Earnings per Share (EPS) growth has been negative for the last 5 years and the Cash Flow from Operations has been steadily fall for the last 3 years, until in December 2007 it was negative. For December 2007, the Graham Price is $10.00 and the Stock price is $19.22. The Graham price is low because the Book Value per share is not growing. Also, the Asset/Liability ratio is low at 1.17.
This would not be my favorite stock, but I will look to see what others are saying about it tomorrow. Also, tomorrow I will look at the most recent quarterly report.
Brookfield Properties is a leading North American commercial real estate company that invests in premier-quality office properties in high-growth markets driven by financial service, government, and energy tenants. The portfolio is composed of office properties in 12 top U.S. and Canadian markets. Its web site is www.brookfieldproperties.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bpo.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Brookfield Properties is on the Dividend Aristocrats list. Both Brookfield Properties and Brookfield Asset Management are on the Dividend Achievers list. Brookfield Asset Management is on Mike Higgs’ list. I have not done a spreadsheet yet on Brookfield Asset Management. See the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com/, The Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and Mike Higgs' list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm.
The Last Annual Statement is dated 31 December 2007. First, the good news, the 5 and 10 years to the last annual statement has seen the Dividends grow by 14% and 19.8% per year respectively, and the Closing Price grow by 11.5% and 8% per year, respectively.
In the not too bad category, the 5 and 10 years to the last annual statement has seen the Revenue grow by 5.8% and 6.6% per year respectively, but this becomes worse if you look at the Revenue per Share that has grown by 4% and 3.8% per year respectively. The Return on Equity (ROE) is not bad at 7.9% and the Accrual Ratio at 2.9% at December 2007.
Now for the bits I do not like. The Earnings per Share (EPS) growth has been negative for the last 5 years and the Cash Flow from Operations has been steadily fall for the last 3 years, until in December 2007 it was negative. For December 2007, the Graham Price is $10.00 and the Stock price is $19.22. The Graham price is low because the Book Value per share is not growing. Also, the Asset/Liability ratio is low at 1.17.
This would not be my favorite stock, but I will look to see what others are saying about it tomorrow. Also, tomorrow I will look at the most recent quarterly report.
Brookfield Properties is a leading North American commercial real estate company that invests in premier-quality office properties in high-growth markets driven by financial service, government, and energy tenants. The portfolio is composed of office properties in 12 top U.S. and Canadian markets. Its web site is www.brookfieldproperties.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bpo.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Brookfield Properties
I was going today to look at some stocks on the Dividend Aristocrats List that I do not have. The first one was Brookfield Properties (TSX-BPO). However, since I had no spreadsheet on this, I had to start from scratch. This takes sometime and I have run out of time today. I will get back to this on Monday. I do not want to rush these things, as this is how you make mistakes.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Teck Cominco Ltd 2
When I looked at the price of this stock today, the first thing I thought was – this is stupid. The stock has dropped over 16% today. There was a cluster of insider sells on this stock when it reached $50 in May, but in November, there is a big cluster of insider buying. No wonder there is insider buying at these prices. I just got home from lunch; I had not realized what was going on. The insider buying is occurring in the public market, it is not connected with stock options.
From looking at analyst reports, I see that this company is expected to earn more this year than last, but the earnings have been down graded recently. Analysts seem to either have Strong Buy ratings on this stock or Hold ratings, and this would average out to a Buy rating. There are analysts that are very negative on this stock. Many feel that it will have to sell assets to repay the loan it made to buy Fording Canadian Coal Trust. This is a very bad time for anyone to need credit, since the current financial problems is basically a credit freeze-up.
The one thing that concerns me is the high Accrual Ratio of 7.92%, which is lower than it was at December 2007, which was some 28%, but it still is very high, as anything over 5% is high. Looking at the charts, this stock, because of the recent drop, has done worse than the TSX and the TSX Materials Index for any period, from year to date to 20 years. This stock is part of the TSX Materials Index. It is very obvious that the mob that is investors today, are very concerned about this stock.
Teck is a diversified resource company involved in mining and mineral development with major business units focused on copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, gold and energy. This company has interests in several oil sands developments. The company explores for resources in the Americas, the Asia Pacific Region, Europe and Africa. Its web site is www.teck.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tck.htm. I have reloaded my spreadsheet with the values from the 3rd quarterly report of September 2008.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
From looking at analyst reports, I see that this company is expected to earn more this year than last, but the earnings have been down graded recently. Analysts seem to either have Strong Buy ratings on this stock or Hold ratings, and this would average out to a Buy rating. There are analysts that are very negative on this stock. Many feel that it will have to sell assets to repay the loan it made to buy Fording Canadian Coal Trust. This is a very bad time for anyone to need credit, since the current financial problems is basically a credit freeze-up.
The one thing that concerns me is the high Accrual Ratio of 7.92%, which is lower than it was at December 2007, which was some 28%, but it still is very high, as anything over 5% is high. Looking at the charts, this stock, because of the recent drop, has done worse than the TSX and the TSX Materials Index for any period, from year to date to 20 years. This stock is part of the TSX Materials Index. It is very obvious that the mob that is investors today, are very concerned about this stock.
Teck is a diversified resource company involved in mining and mineral development with major business units focused on copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, gold and energy. This company has interests in several oil sands developments. The company explores for resources in the Americas, the Asia Pacific Region, Europe and Africa. Its web site is www.teck.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tck.htm. I have reloaded my spreadsheet with the values from the 3rd quarterly report of September 2008.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Teck Cominco Ltd
To continue the theme of looking at resource companies, I looked at Teck Cominco (TSX-TCK.B) to see how this company has done over the last 5 and 10 years. What I have found here again is that an investment in this company would have done quite well. Today, I will look at what sort of profit you would have made on a 5 or 10 year investment to the last annual statement of December 2007. Tomorrow I will look at from the stand point of a current investment.
The 5 and 10 years to the last annual statement has seen the Revenue grow by 23% and 24% per year respectively, the Closing Price grow by 46% and 14% per year, respectively, the Cash Flow grow by 41% and 18% per year, respectively and the book value by 21% and 10% per year, respectively. The Earnings per Share (EPS) for the last 5 and 8 years have grown by 118% and 43% per year respectively. I cannot give a growth for 10 years as there was a few years, 10 years ago when the EPS was negative.
Teck Cominco is also a dividend paying stock and, although the yield is in a low range of 1.6% average for both 5 and 10 years, the rate that the dividends have grown is quite health at 58% and 26% per year for the last 5 and 10 years. The Return on Equity (ROE) has also been very good, with the ROE for December 2007 being at 21%. The Current Asset/Current Liability Ratio and the Asset/Liability Ratio are both high at 2.23 and 2.32 respectively. I only real negative I see is that the Accrual Ratio for December 2007 is very high at 28.6%.
It would seem that this company has done well over the last 5 and 10 years. Teck is a diversified resource company involved in mining and mineral development with major business units focused on copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, gold and energy. This company has interests in several oil sands developments. The company explores for resources in the Americas, the Asia Pacific Region, Europe and Africa. Its web site is www.teck.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tck.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
The 5 and 10 years to the last annual statement has seen the Revenue grow by 23% and 24% per year respectively, the Closing Price grow by 46% and 14% per year, respectively, the Cash Flow grow by 41% and 18% per year, respectively and the book value by 21% and 10% per year, respectively. The Earnings per Share (EPS) for the last 5 and 8 years have grown by 118% and 43% per year respectively. I cannot give a growth for 10 years as there was a few years, 10 years ago when the EPS was negative.
Teck Cominco is also a dividend paying stock and, although the yield is in a low range of 1.6% average for both 5 and 10 years, the rate that the dividends have grown is quite health at 58% and 26% per year for the last 5 and 10 years. The Return on Equity (ROE) has also been very good, with the ROE for December 2007 being at 21%. The Current Asset/Current Liability Ratio and the Asset/Liability Ratio are both high at 2.23 and 2.32 respectively. I only real negative I see is that the Accrual Ratio for December 2007 is very high at 28.6%.
It would seem that this company has done well over the last 5 and 10 years. Teck is a diversified resource company involved in mining and mineral development with major business units focused on copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, gold and energy. This company has interests in several oil sands developments. The company explores for resources in the Americas, the Asia Pacific Region, Europe and Africa. Its web site is www.teck.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tck.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Hot, Flat, and Crowded, by Thomas L. Friedman
The full title of this book is Hot, Flat, and Crowded - Why We Need A Green Revolution – And How It Can Renew America. I read Friedman because he always says interesting things. The US and indeed the world, is in deep shit, environmentally.
However, I am Canadian and as most Canadians do and what our Country does, is muddle through things. We will muddle through this environment thing. Canada never goes to extremes that the US does and we are generally quite happy about that. This book is available on Amazon; see the panel to the right side.
If you want to read a typical review on this book, see www.thomaslfriedman.com/bookshelf/hot-flat-and-crowded/ or see www.wired.com/culture/culturereviews/magazine/16-09/pl_print. or see www.guardian.co.uk/books/2008/sep/27/politics.climatechange. To read an excerpt from this book, see www.nytimes.com/2008/09/10/books/chapters/chapter-hot-flat-crowded.html. Thomas Friedmand has his own site at www.thomaslfriedman.com/.
Treating pollution as an externality is dangerous. Past Civilizations fell because they destroyed their environment. One quote I love in this book is on page 259. “Socialism collapsed because it did not allow the market to tell the economic truth. Capitalism may collapse because it does not allow the market to tell the ecological truth. If you learn nothing else from this book besides this, you will do very well.
The other very interesting thing he quotes is Stanford climatologist Stephen Schneider. He asks, “Can democracy survive complexity?” on page 406. “It is so difficult. It is multi-scale, multidisciplinary, with large certainty in some areas and small certainty in others. It is irreversible and reversible and we won’t know how we did until it is over. We will only know forty years later. That is why climate complexity is a challenger to democracy.”
An interesting suggestion is that since the price of oil is so high and it is therefore pushing innovation, we should keep the price of oil high. If it comes down, we should have a tax that automatically comes in and keep the price high. That is if oil is $100 a barrel, and it does to $90, we should have $10 a barrel tax.
All in all, this is very good book about a current and complex problem.
However, I am Canadian and as most Canadians do and what our Country does, is muddle through things. We will muddle through this environment thing. Canada never goes to extremes that the US does and we are generally quite happy about that. This book is available on Amazon; see the panel to the right side.
If you want to read a typical review on this book, see www.thomaslfriedman.com/bookshelf/hot-flat-and-crowded/ or see www.wired.com/culture/culturereviews/magazine/16-09/pl_print. or see www.guardian.co.uk/books/2008/sep/27/politics.climatechange. To read an excerpt from this book, see www.nytimes.com/2008/09/10/books/chapters/chapter-hot-flat-crowded.html. Thomas Friedmand has his own site at www.thomaslfriedman.com/.
Treating pollution as an externality is dangerous. Past Civilizations fell because they destroyed their environment. One quote I love in this book is on page 259. “Socialism collapsed because it did not allow the market to tell the economic truth. Capitalism may collapse because it does not allow the market to tell the ecological truth. If you learn nothing else from this book besides this, you will do very well.
The other very interesting thing he quotes is Stanford climatologist Stephen Schneider. He asks, “Can democracy survive complexity?” on page 406. “It is so difficult. It is multi-scale, multidisciplinary, with large certainty in some areas and small certainty in others. It is irreversible and reversible and we won’t know how we did until it is over. We will only know forty years later. That is why climate complexity is a challenger to democracy.”
An interesting suggestion is that since the price of oil is so high and it is therefore pushing innovation, we should keep the price of oil high. If it comes down, we should have a tax that automatically comes in and keep the price high. That is if oil is $100 a barrel, and it does to $90, we should have $10 a barrel tax.
All in all, this is very good book about a current and complex problem.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Enbridge and Toromont
As I said on Friday, I finally bought some stock in this bear market. I bought Enbridge (TSX-ENB) and Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH). Enbridge is the better dividend payer and Toromont is the better value. Both these stocks are on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com/ and the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and also on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm. They are both considered to be dividend paying growth stocks. Enbridge is considered to be a Low risk stock and Toromont a Medium risk stock.
Both these stocks have Strong Buy ratings, Buy ratings, and Hold ratings on them. However, Toromont has more buy ratings and the net is a Strong Buy, whereas Enbridge’s net rating is a Buy. There is always diverging opinions on these ratings. The Enbridge stock is holding up well in this bear market, whereas the Toromont stock has lost some 25% of its value. For the Enbridge stock, the dividend yield hovers around 3% and currently is 3.27%, with the 5 and 10 year annual dividend increases at 10.1% and 8.8%. Meanwhile the dividend yield for Toromont is usually under 1.5% and is currently at 2.7%, with the 5 and 10 year annual dividend increases at 21.7% and 17%.
The current P/E rating for Enbridge is at 18 and this is just below the 5 year average of 18.8. The current P/E rating for Toromont is 10.7, which is quite a bit below the 5 year average of 17.7. Toromont generally does better over the longer term than Enbridge, but Enbridge is consistent performer. The price I paid for Toromont is below the Graham Price, but the price for Enbridge is above the Graham Price by some 28%.
All in all, I got Toromont at a very good price. However, Enbridge will probably do better in the coming recession than Toromont will. But, I am buying long term, so I feel I will end up better, in the long term, with both these purchases.
Enbridge is focused on three core businesses of crude oil and liquids pipelines, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas distribution. They operate in Canada and US. Its web site is www.enbridge.com. See my spreadsheet at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/enb.htm. I have updated it with the figures from the September 2008 quarterly report.
Toromont Industries has two sections. The Equipment Group is for their Caterpillar dealerships. The Compression Group, designs, engineers, fabricates, installs and services natural gas compression units; and hydrocarbon and petrochemical process compression systems; and industrial and recreational refrigeration compression systems. They do business in Canada only. Its web site is www.toromont.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tih.htm. I have updated it with the figures from the September 2008 quarterly report.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Both these stocks have Strong Buy ratings, Buy ratings, and Hold ratings on them. However, Toromont has more buy ratings and the net is a Strong Buy, whereas Enbridge’s net rating is a Buy. There is always diverging opinions on these ratings. The Enbridge stock is holding up well in this bear market, whereas the Toromont stock has lost some 25% of its value. For the Enbridge stock, the dividend yield hovers around 3% and currently is 3.27%, with the 5 and 10 year annual dividend increases at 10.1% and 8.8%. Meanwhile the dividend yield for Toromont is usually under 1.5% and is currently at 2.7%, with the 5 and 10 year annual dividend increases at 21.7% and 17%.
The current P/E rating for Enbridge is at 18 and this is just below the 5 year average of 18.8. The current P/E rating for Toromont is 10.7, which is quite a bit below the 5 year average of 17.7. Toromont generally does better over the longer term than Enbridge, but Enbridge is consistent performer. The price I paid for Toromont is below the Graham Price, but the price for Enbridge is above the Graham Price by some 28%.
All in all, I got Toromont at a very good price. However, Enbridge will probably do better in the coming recession than Toromont will. But, I am buying long term, so I feel I will end up better, in the long term, with both these purchases.
Enbridge is focused on three core businesses of crude oil and liquids pipelines, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas distribution. They operate in Canada and US. Its web site is www.enbridge.com. See my spreadsheet at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/enb.htm. I have updated it with the figures from the September 2008 quarterly report.
Toromont Industries has two sections. The Equipment Group is for their Caterpillar dealerships. The Compression Group, designs, engineers, fabricates, installs and services natural gas compression units; and hydrocarbon and petrochemical process compression systems; and industrial and recreational refrigeration compression systems. They do business in Canada only. Its web site is www.toromont.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tih.htm. I have updated it with the figures from the September 2008 quarterly report.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Petro-Canada 2
Today I will look at this stock (TSX-PCA) from the stand point of a current investment. Insiders were selling off this stock until July 2008. Since that time there has only been insider buying. This is a good sign. Another good sign is that the dividends on this stock were raised from $.52 a share to $.80 a share. This is an increase of over 50%.
I was looking at what analysts are saying about this stock. There are some Buy ratings on this stock, but most the ratings are Hold. Perhaps this is because no one expects that Petro-Canada will earn the same EPS or Cash Flow in 2009 that are expected in 2008. In looking at the charts, this stock has done worse than the TSX Index and the TSX Energy Index in the Year to Date, 1 year, 3 Year and 5 Year periods. It is only when you go to the 10 year period that it has done better than both these indexes. If you compare this stock with Encana, you will see that Encana has done better than Petro-Canada, and also the TSX and TSX Energy Index in all these periods.
If you had held this stock over the past 5 or 10 years, you would have earned money. Currently, the price of this stock is back to where it was in 2003 and 2004, but this will not last. What I see as the negatives for this stock is the low yield, which is running usually always below 1%. The current problem I see is the Accrual Ratio is very high at 9.89%, where anything above 5% is very high. I would also like to see the Current Asset/Current Liability Ratio safely above 1.5. For the most recent quarter, it has improved from .88 to 1.44 and this, of course, is good.
The most positive things are the insider buying, the increase in dividends and with the dividend yield going up to 3%. The P/E ratio is also lower than it has been over the past 10 years.
Petro-Canada is one of Canada’s largest oil and gas company, operating in Canada and internationally. They operate in both upstream (explores and produces) and the downstream (refining and marketing) sectors of the oil and gas industry. Its web site is www.petro-canada.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/pca.htm. I am reloading my spreadsheet with the figures from the most recent quarter of September 2008.
I finally bought some stock in this bear market. I bought Enbridge (TSX-ENB) and Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH). Enbridge is the better dividend payer and Toromont is the better value. I will talk more on this on Monday.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
I was looking at what analysts are saying about this stock. There are some Buy ratings on this stock, but most the ratings are Hold. Perhaps this is because no one expects that Petro-Canada will earn the same EPS or Cash Flow in 2009 that are expected in 2008. In looking at the charts, this stock has done worse than the TSX Index and the TSX Energy Index in the Year to Date, 1 year, 3 Year and 5 Year periods. It is only when you go to the 10 year period that it has done better than both these indexes. If you compare this stock with Encana, you will see that Encana has done better than Petro-Canada, and also the TSX and TSX Energy Index in all these periods.
If you had held this stock over the past 5 or 10 years, you would have earned money. Currently, the price of this stock is back to where it was in 2003 and 2004, but this will not last. What I see as the negatives for this stock is the low yield, which is running usually always below 1%. The current problem I see is the Accrual Ratio is very high at 9.89%, where anything above 5% is very high. I would also like to see the Current Asset/Current Liability Ratio safely above 1.5. For the most recent quarter, it has improved from .88 to 1.44 and this, of course, is good.
The most positive things are the insider buying, the increase in dividends and with the dividend yield going up to 3%. The P/E ratio is also lower than it has been over the past 10 years.
Petro-Canada is one of Canada’s largest oil and gas company, operating in Canada and internationally. They operate in both upstream (explores and produces) and the downstream (refining and marketing) sectors of the oil and gas industry. Its web site is www.petro-canada.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/pca.htm. I am reloading my spreadsheet with the figures from the most recent quarter of September 2008.
I finally bought some stock in this bear market. I bought Enbridge (TSX-ENB) and Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH). Enbridge is the better dividend payer and Toromont is the better value. I will talk more on this on Monday.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Petro-Canada
I will like to do something different again today. I started investing in the 1970’s. This was the time that oil and gas sky rockets up in price and then a few years later fell down heavily. I had always perceived that resource investing was very risky and have done very little investing in this section. I had held some resource stock at various times, but always held them for short periods. Basically make a profit and getting out. I never held any for more than a few years.
I know that a lot of the TSX market is in resources. So, I wanted to look at some resource companies and see how well they have done over the past while. The first one I have picked to review is Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). What I have found out that over the past 5 or 10 years, an investment in this company would have done quite well. Today, I will look at what sort of profit you would have made on a 10 or 5 year investment to the last annual statement of December 2007. Tomorrow I will look at from the stand point of a current investment.
The 5 and 10 years to the last annual statement has seen the Revenue grow by 16% and 13% per year respectively, the Earnings per Share (EPS) grow by 25% and 26% per year respectively, the Closing Price grow by 18% and 16% per year, respectively, the Cash Flow grow by 12% and 13% % per year, respectively and the book value by 18% and 13% per year, respectively. This is all very good. Petro-Canada is also a dividend paying stock and, although the yield is low at .89% and 1.1% average for 5 and 10 years, the rate that the dividends have grown is quite health at 21% and 14% per year for the last 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity (ROE) has also been very good, with the ROE for December 2007 being at 23%. The negatives I see for this stock is the Current Asset/Current Liability Ratio is not as high as I would like to see it, although the Asset/Liability Ratio has always been a quite health position above 1.5. I also note that the Accrual Ratio for December 2007 is very high at 12.7%.
However, by and large, if you had invested in this stock over the past 5 or 10 years, you could have done very well.
Petro-Canada is one of Canada’s largest oil and gas company, operating in Canada and internationally. They operate in both upstream (explores and produces) and the downstream (refining and marketing) sectors of the oil and gas industry. Its web site is www.petro-canada.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/pca.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
I know that a lot of the TSX market is in resources. So, I wanted to look at some resource companies and see how well they have done over the past while. The first one I have picked to review is Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). What I have found out that over the past 5 or 10 years, an investment in this company would have done quite well. Today, I will look at what sort of profit you would have made on a 10 or 5 year investment to the last annual statement of December 2007. Tomorrow I will look at from the stand point of a current investment.
The 5 and 10 years to the last annual statement has seen the Revenue grow by 16% and 13% per year respectively, the Earnings per Share (EPS) grow by 25% and 26% per year respectively, the Closing Price grow by 18% and 16% per year, respectively, the Cash Flow grow by 12% and 13% % per year, respectively and the book value by 18% and 13% per year, respectively. This is all very good. Petro-Canada is also a dividend paying stock and, although the yield is low at .89% and 1.1% average for 5 and 10 years, the rate that the dividends have grown is quite health at 21% and 14% per year for the last 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity (ROE) has also been very good, with the ROE for December 2007 being at 23%. The negatives I see for this stock is the Current Asset/Current Liability Ratio is not as high as I would like to see it, although the Asset/Liability Ratio has always been a quite health position above 1.5. I also note that the Accrual Ratio for December 2007 is very high at 12.7%.
However, by and large, if you had invested in this stock over the past 5 or 10 years, you could have done very well.
Petro-Canada is one of Canada’s largest oil and gas company, operating in Canada and internationally. They operate in both upstream (explores and produces) and the downstream (refining and marketing) sectors of the oil and gas industry. Its web site is www.petro-canada.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/pca.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Stantec Inc 2
As I said yesterday, I will review for this stock (TSX-STN), the latest quarterly report and update my spreadsheet accordingly. The reason it was recommend is that it is in the infrastructure business. There are many that think this company will profit from government money promised for infrastructure building. I have looked at this stock recently as there are lots of people that think it is a great stock. I bought a small amount in April of this year. It, of course, has lost money for me this year, but I think that I will benefit from it in the long term.
I notice that lots of analysts still have estimated EPS for this stock for 2008 around $1.80. However, since the September quarter there was a loss of $.66, I do not see how this can be. This best that I can see is that it will earn $1.20. However, since the September loss is due to non-cash charges, this lost does not mean too much.
The Current Asset/Current Liability Ratio is no longer a problem and it is the good range of 1.54. Anything over 1.5 is good. The Asset/Liability Ratio is still quite high (and very good) at 1.89. The current P/E is slightly below the 5 year average 19.7. If you go with what others think this stock will earn this year, the current P/E is around 12. However, the price still is not at or lowers than the Graham Price, but this may not happen.
One very good thing is that over the last 90 days there has been lots of insider buying. Stantec has also been buying back their shares and this is also a positive sign. Both their gross and net revenues are up and this is also positive. I think that this is a great company, but you should only buy if you can stand the higher risk that come with buying this stock.
Stantec Inc is a profitable Construction & Engineering company that trades on the TSX. It provides professional services in planning, engineering, architecture, interior design, landscape architecture, surveying and geomatics, environmental sciences project management and project economics for clients, from initial concept and financial feasibility, to project completion and beyond. Its web site is www.stantec.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/stn.htm. I have reloaded my spreadsheet with the 3rd quarterly report figures.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
I notice that lots of analysts still have estimated EPS for this stock for 2008 around $1.80. However, since the September quarter there was a loss of $.66, I do not see how this can be. This best that I can see is that it will earn $1.20. However, since the September loss is due to non-cash charges, this lost does not mean too much.
The Current Asset/Current Liability Ratio is no longer a problem and it is the good range of 1.54. Anything over 1.5 is good. The Asset/Liability Ratio is still quite high (and very good) at 1.89. The current P/E is slightly below the 5 year average 19.7. If you go with what others think this stock will earn this year, the current P/E is around 12. However, the price still is not at or lowers than the Graham Price, but this may not happen.
One very good thing is that over the last 90 days there has been lots of insider buying. Stantec has also been buying back their shares and this is also a positive sign. Both their gross and net revenues are up and this is also positive. I think that this is a great company, but you should only buy if you can stand the higher risk that come with buying this stock.
Stantec Inc is a profitable Construction & Engineering company that trades on the TSX. It provides professional services in planning, engineering, architecture, interior design, landscape architecture, surveying and geomatics, environmental sciences project management and project economics for clients, from initial concept and financial feasibility, to project completion and beyond. Its web site is www.stantec.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/stn.htm. I have reloaded my spreadsheet with the 3rd quarterly report figures.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Stantec Inc
I will like to do something different. I am here reviewing a stock that pays no dividends. I am reviewing this stock (TSX-STN) today, as it is one that has recently been recommended as a good buy. The reason it was recommend is that it is in the infrastructure business. There are many that think this company will profit from government money promised for infrastructure building. I have looked at this stock recently as there are lots that think it is a great stock. I bought a small amount in April of this year. It, of course, has lost money for me this year, but I think that I will benefit from it in the long term.
I will look today at how it has done, mainly to the last annual report of December 31, 2007. Tomorrow, I will look at the latest quarterly report and update my spreadsheet for that report. This is a growth company. The 5 years to the last annual statement has seen the Revenue grow by 17% per year, the Earnings per Share (EPS) grow by 22% per year, the closing price grow by 37% per year and the Cash Flow grow by 14% per year.
The other positive things are that Asset/Liability Ratio is very good at 2.19; the Asset/Book Value ratio is low at 1.8; and the Return on Equity (ROE) is good at 15.6%. The problems I see is that the Current Asset/Current Liability Ratio is low at 1.39 (but I noticed it was much better at the first quarterly report); the Accrual Ratio is very high at 14%; and the Graham Price at $18.08 was way off the Closing Price of $38.89. However, I must say that for growth companies, it is next to impossible to buy at or below the Graham Price, although, for the current bear market, this is probably not true.
Stantec Inc is a profitable Construction & Engineering company that trades on the TSX. It provides professional services in planning, engineering, architecture, interior design, landscape architecture, surveying and geomatics, environmental sciences project management and project economics for clients, from initial concept and financial feasibility, to project completion and beyond. It works internationally. Its web site is www.stantec.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/stn.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
I will look today at how it has done, mainly to the last annual report of December 31, 2007. Tomorrow, I will look at the latest quarterly report and update my spreadsheet for that report. This is a growth company. The 5 years to the last annual statement has seen the Revenue grow by 17% per year, the Earnings per Share (EPS) grow by 22% per year, the closing price grow by 37% per year and the Cash Flow grow by 14% per year.
The other positive things are that Asset/Liability Ratio is very good at 2.19; the Asset/Book Value ratio is low at 1.8; and the Return on Equity (ROE) is good at 15.6%. The problems I see is that the Current Asset/Current Liability Ratio is low at 1.39 (but I noticed it was much better at the first quarterly report); the Accrual Ratio is very high at 14%; and the Graham Price at $18.08 was way off the Closing Price of $38.89. However, I must say that for growth companies, it is next to impossible to buy at or below the Graham Price, although, for the current bear market, this is probably not true.
Stantec Inc is a profitable Construction & Engineering company that trades on the TSX. It provides professional services in planning, engineering, architecture, interior design, landscape architecture, surveying and geomatics, environmental sciences project management and project economics for clients, from initial concept and financial feasibility, to project completion and beyond. It works internationally. Its web site is www.stantec.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/stn.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Booms and Bust; Innovations and Risk Takers
Capitalist system works by boom and bust. It can be a very bumpy ride, but we all can win in the long term. The business cycle is not dead. I am not saying that there should be no regulation to temper the business cycle. However, you have to be careful as too much regulation can stop the economic expansion phrase of the cycle. You will not get rid of the economic contractions, but you can damage economic expansions.
Innovators and risk takers push the capitalist system. They push the economic expansions. We mostly benefit from this, but not always. This is one time when we are not benefiting much. In fact, this is why we have some of the current problems. However, if you slap down innovators and risk takers, or worse put them in jail, you discourage people from innovation and risk taking. If you do this, we can all lose. Here again, you can put a stop to economic expansions, but you will still get the economic contractions.
From what I can see, what you want to do is moderate the expansions. The higher and the steeper the stock market climbs, the lower and steeper will be its fall. So, putting in some regulations to keep the booms in check and some regulations to keep the innovations and risk taking in check, would certainly be in order. There seems to be lots we can do to kill economic expansion. Problem is, I have never heard of any economic contractions being stopped.
Business people (like CEO, CFO etc) are just people who are doing the best they can in the situations that they find themselves. I am not saying that there are no crooks; I am just saying that the majority of business people try to do the best they can. Humanity spend most of it’s time as a hunter-gather. Maybe under all our sophistication and our very complex society, we are just hunter-gathers at heart, just trying to cope with the world we have made.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Innovators and risk takers push the capitalist system. They push the economic expansions. We mostly benefit from this, but not always. This is one time when we are not benefiting much. In fact, this is why we have some of the current problems. However, if you slap down innovators and risk takers, or worse put them in jail, you discourage people from innovation and risk taking. If you do this, we can all lose. Here again, you can put a stop to economic expansions, but you will still get the economic contractions.
From what I can see, what you want to do is moderate the expansions. The higher and the steeper the stock market climbs, the lower and steeper will be its fall. So, putting in some regulations to keep the booms in check and some regulations to keep the innovations and risk taking in check, would certainly be in order. There seems to be lots we can do to kill economic expansion. Problem is, I have never heard of any economic contractions being stopped.
Business people (like CEO, CFO etc) are just people who are doing the best they can in the situations that they find themselves. I am not saying that there are no crooks; I am just saying that the majority of business people try to do the best they can. Humanity spend most of it’s time as a hunter-gather. Maybe under all our sophistication and our very complex society, we are just hunter-gathers at heart, just trying to cope with the world we have made.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Backbone Stocks
I was asked for a list of what I thought my backbone stocks were in my portfolio. I have done a spreadsheet to show them and some pertinent information on each stock. Below, I have some comments on some of these stocks.
First, I will mention Pembina. What can I say, but that I really like pipelines. I have made a great deal of dividend income from pipeline stocks over the years.
I have RIOCan. I rent, not own where I live. Having some real estate is good, although I lean towards industrial and retail rather than apartment REITS.
I have Bank of Montreal as a maybe. This is because I might get rid of some of it. If I were buying banks today, I would get Royal Bank, TD and Bank of Nova Scotia. I do not believe I would buy Bank of Montreal. I have had this bank since the 1970’s. However, it is not the same bank as it was when I bought it back then. The rest of the maybes I am just trying out.
See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/portfolio.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
First, I will mention Pembina. What can I say, but that I really like pipelines. I have made a great deal of dividend income from pipeline stocks over the years.
I have RIOCan. I rent, not own where I live. Having some real estate is good, although I lean towards industrial and retail rather than apartment REITS.
I have Bank of Montreal as a maybe. This is because I might get rid of some of it. If I were buying banks today, I would get Royal Bank, TD and Bank of Nova Scotia. I do not believe I would buy Bank of Montreal. I have had this bank since the 1970’s. However, it is not the same bank as it was when I bought it back then. The rest of the maybes I am just trying out.
See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/portfolio.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Forzani Group 2
Today, I am reviewing this stock (TSX-FGL) to see if it currently is a good buy. The first thing to mention is that there has been insider buying lately. There was some selling when the stock was up over $18. However, buying started when the stock hit $13 and it has been continuing.
On the charts, if you look at this stock over the past month, it has done better than the TSX or the TSX Consumer Staples Index. If you look at the stock over year to date, 1, 3 and 5 years, it has done worse than these two indexes. It is only looking at this stock over a 10 year period when it has done better than these two indexes. The problem is that this stock has been very hard hit by the recent bear market.
No one expects this stock to earning as much this year (Jan 2009) as it did last year (Jan 2008), but improvement is expected for Jan 2010. People vary as to how much the EPS will go down this year. Both the Current Asset/Current Debt and the Asset/Debt Ratios have deteriorated in this new quarterly report. Both the Net Income and the Operational Cash Flow figures are negative for this new quarterly report.
The only recent bright spot is the insider buying. Analysts are giving this stock Strong Buy, Buy and Hold ratings, with an average of a Buy rating. As always, there are various opinions on this stock. Personally, I would like to see the next quarterly report before committing any money to this stock.
The Forzani Group is a retailer of sporting goods, offering an assortment of brand-name and private-brand products through stores under corporate and franchise banners. Their corporate banners include Sport Chek, Sport Mart, Coast Mountain Sports, National Sports, Athletes World and Hockey Experts. The franchise banners include Sports Experts, Intersport, Atmosphere, Nevada Bob’s Golf, Hockey Experts, Fitness Source, Pegasus, RnR, S3, Tech Shop and Econosports. Its web site is www.forzanigroup.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fgl.htm. I have re-uploaded my spreadsheet with the 2nd quarterly report figures.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
On the charts, if you look at this stock over the past month, it has done better than the TSX or the TSX Consumer Staples Index. If you look at the stock over year to date, 1, 3 and 5 years, it has done worse than these two indexes. It is only looking at this stock over a 10 year period when it has done better than these two indexes. The problem is that this stock has been very hard hit by the recent bear market.
No one expects this stock to earning as much this year (Jan 2009) as it did last year (Jan 2008), but improvement is expected for Jan 2010. People vary as to how much the EPS will go down this year. Both the Current Asset/Current Debt and the Asset/Debt Ratios have deteriorated in this new quarterly report. Both the Net Income and the Operational Cash Flow figures are negative for this new quarterly report.
The only recent bright spot is the insider buying. Analysts are giving this stock Strong Buy, Buy and Hold ratings, with an average of a Buy rating. As always, there are various opinions on this stock. Personally, I would like to see the next quarterly report before committing any money to this stock.
The Forzani Group is a retailer of sporting goods, offering an assortment of brand-name and private-brand products through stores under corporate and franchise banners. Their corporate banners include Sport Chek, Sport Mart, Coast Mountain Sports, National Sports, Athletes World and Hockey Experts. The franchise banners include Sports Experts, Intersport, Atmosphere, Nevada Bob’s Golf, Hockey Experts, Fitness Source, Pegasus, RnR, S3, Tech Shop and Econosports. Its web site is www.forzanigroup.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fgl.htm. I have re-uploaded my spreadsheet with the 2nd quarterly report figures.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Forzani Group
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-FGL) today, as it is one that has recently been recommended as a value buy. I have not been following this stock, so I have built a spreadsheet on it to see if it is indeed a good buy. One thing about this stock is that it has just started paying dividends; the first one was due to be paid in February of this year. So, this might be a stock I would be interested in. However, it is not possible to see how this will work out, but it shows faith in the stock by those running this company.
If you had invested in this stock at any time over the past 5 years, you would have lost money in it because of the current stock price. However, we are in a severe bear market, and the stock price has more to do with that then anything else. Once we get past this bear market I am sure this will not be the case.
Looking at the fundamentals, this stock has not done badly in growing the revenues and Earnings per Share (EPS) on this stock. However, the increase in Cash Flow has been much better. The increase in Cash Flow, in fact, has been great, as it has been growing at the rate of 36% per year over the last 5 years. The Current Asset/Current Debt Ratio is a bit low at 1.38, but the Asset/Debt ratio is fine at 1.89. The Accrual Ratio is good in that it is negative. The Return on Equity (ROE) is not bad at 13%. Also, the book value has been growing at a healthy 10% over the last 5 years.
There is not in the way of negative comments I can make on this stock besides the Current Asset/Current Debt ratio being below a more desirable ratio of 1.5. This is not a great time to be heavily into debt.
The Forzani Group is a retailer of sporting goods, offering an assortment of brand-name and private-brand products through stores under the corporate and franchise banners. Their corporate banners include Sport Chek, Sport Mart, Coast Mountain Sports, National Sports, Athletes World and Hockey Experts. The franchise banners include Sports Experts, Intersport, Atmosphere, Nevada Bob’s Golf, Hockey Experts, Fitness Source, Pegasus, RnR, S3, Tech Shop and Econosports. Its web site is www.forzanigroup.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fgl.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
If you had invested in this stock at any time over the past 5 years, you would have lost money in it because of the current stock price. However, we are in a severe bear market, and the stock price has more to do with that then anything else. Once we get past this bear market I am sure this will not be the case.
Looking at the fundamentals, this stock has not done badly in growing the revenues and Earnings per Share (EPS) on this stock. However, the increase in Cash Flow has been much better. The increase in Cash Flow, in fact, has been great, as it has been growing at the rate of 36% per year over the last 5 years. The Current Asset/Current Debt Ratio is a bit low at 1.38, but the Asset/Debt ratio is fine at 1.89. The Accrual Ratio is good in that it is negative. The Return on Equity (ROE) is not bad at 13%. Also, the book value has been growing at a healthy 10% over the last 5 years.
There is not in the way of negative comments I can make on this stock besides the Current Asset/Current Debt ratio being below a more desirable ratio of 1.5. This is not a great time to be heavily into debt.
The Forzani Group is a retailer of sporting goods, offering an assortment of brand-name and private-brand products through stores under the corporate and franchise banners. Their corporate banners include Sport Chek, Sport Mart, Coast Mountain Sports, National Sports, Athletes World and Hockey Experts. The franchise banners include Sports Experts, Intersport, Atmosphere, Nevada Bob’s Golf, Hockey Experts, Fitness Source, Pegasus, RnR, S3, Tech Shop and Econosports. Its web site is www.forzanigroup.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fgl.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
What Sort Of Portfolio Do You Want
Before building a portfolio, you have to decide what sort you and want you want it to do.
I have one that has income that increases above the rate of inflation (between 3 and 4%) and allows me to have some fun. I live off my portfolio, so I want my income to increase, but I do not need it to increase greater than inflation, which, historically runs at 3%. I have it increase slightly more than inflation as a safety measure. I also get to have some interesting investments in tech and dividend paying small and medium size stocks.
My portfolio has a sold backbone of large, increasing dividend paying stocks. I have a Canadian Trading account, a US Trading account, a RRSP trading account and a Locked-In RRSP Trading Account. Because of tax considerations, my Canadian Trading account holds solid increasing dividend paying stocks. The dividends in this account have increasing, on average, at over 10% a year. In this account, you will find such stocks that appear on the Dividend Achievers at www.dividendachievers.com/ and the Dividend Aristocrats lists.
The main exception that is that I keep no resource stocks in this account. I do not feel that any resource stock is a permanent hold. Some of the stocks in my Canadian Trading account, I have had since the 1970’s. I do buy and sell stocks in this account, as this cannot be avoided, but I keep this activity down as much as possible. The last thing to mention is that, although I do not have resource stocks per say in my Canadian Trading account, I do have pipelines. I have to admit that this could cause me future problems as, some day, we will get off oil and gas and generate energy in more environmentally friendly ways. However, when this will happen, who knows.
My US account is in US currency and I do not have much here, as I do not do much in international investing. I recently moved some cash from this account as our Canadian dollar hit a low and it was a good time to take cash from this account.
Both my RRSP and my Locked-In RRSP accounts have some good solid increasing dividend paying stocks. Also, these accounts are where I place my resource stocks, tech stocks and small and medium size dividend paying stocks.
I have some income trust stocks in all my accounts. There is a trade off in high yield and low increasing dividends. If you have income trusts, or any other high yield stocks, you must decide what sort of trade off you want between yield and increasing dividends.
So, anyone with an investment portfolio should decide what sort they want and what they want it to do, and then you must invest accordingly. Do you want high increasing dividend income and are willing to settle for low yield? The above stock Dividend Achievers stocks might be the way to go. Do you want a higher income and are willing to settle for lower income increases? Then a mix of Income Trust stocks with increasing dividend paying stocks might be for you. Are you willing to have lower income increases and lower income so you can do some investing in non-dividend paying stocks? Then you may want your portfolio to have a backbone of solid dividend paying stocks, so you can indulge in other types of stocks.
You might want to combine any of the above with bonds for some greater income security. However, one thing is sure, if you invest money to earn money, you are taking a risk. That is why you get income on your money. Nothing in investing is an absolute sure thing. So, make sure you go with the level of risk you can handle.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
I have one that has income that increases above the rate of inflation (between 3 and 4%) and allows me to have some fun. I live off my portfolio, so I want my income to increase, but I do not need it to increase greater than inflation, which, historically runs at 3%. I have it increase slightly more than inflation as a safety measure. I also get to have some interesting investments in tech and dividend paying small and medium size stocks.
My portfolio has a sold backbone of large, increasing dividend paying stocks. I have a Canadian Trading account, a US Trading account, a RRSP trading account and a Locked-In RRSP Trading Account. Because of tax considerations, my Canadian Trading account holds solid increasing dividend paying stocks. The dividends in this account have increasing, on average, at over 10% a year. In this account, you will find such stocks that appear on the Dividend Achievers at www.dividendachievers.com/ and the Dividend Aristocrats lists.
The main exception that is that I keep no resource stocks in this account. I do not feel that any resource stock is a permanent hold. Some of the stocks in my Canadian Trading account, I have had since the 1970’s. I do buy and sell stocks in this account, as this cannot be avoided, but I keep this activity down as much as possible. The last thing to mention is that, although I do not have resource stocks per say in my Canadian Trading account, I do have pipelines. I have to admit that this could cause me future problems as, some day, we will get off oil and gas and generate energy in more environmentally friendly ways. However, when this will happen, who knows.
My US account is in US currency and I do not have much here, as I do not do much in international investing. I recently moved some cash from this account as our Canadian dollar hit a low and it was a good time to take cash from this account.
Both my RRSP and my Locked-In RRSP accounts have some good solid increasing dividend paying stocks. Also, these accounts are where I place my resource stocks, tech stocks and small and medium size dividend paying stocks.
I have some income trust stocks in all my accounts. There is a trade off in high yield and low increasing dividends. If you have income trusts, or any other high yield stocks, you must decide what sort of trade off you want between yield and increasing dividends.
So, anyone with an investment portfolio should decide what sort they want and what they want it to do, and then you must invest accordingly. Do you want high increasing dividend income and are willing to settle for low yield? The above stock Dividend Achievers stocks might be the way to go. Do you want a higher income and are willing to settle for lower income increases? Then a mix of Income Trust stocks with increasing dividend paying stocks might be for you. Are you willing to have lower income increases and lower income so you can do some investing in non-dividend paying stocks? Then you may want your portfolio to have a backbone of solid dividend paying stocks, so you can indulge in other types of stocks.
You might want to combine any of the above with bonds for some greater income security. However, one thing is sure, if you invest money to earn money, you are taking a risk. That is why you get income on your money. Nothing in investing is an absolute sure thing. So, make sure you go with the level of risk you can handle.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Monday, November 3, 2008
TD Bank 3
Since I started talking about banks to invest in, I thought I would look at all banks that are currently being suggested as a good buy. This bank, (TSX-TD) is a bank that has raised their dividends twice this year. There is also some insider selling and insider buying on this stock. There is nothing significant.
When I last looked at this stock in August 2008, the EPS estimate for the year was $4.75. However, this estimate has been lowered to $4.57. The other negative is that the Return on Equity (ROE) is likely to much lower than the 5 year average. Also, the Accrual Ratio is high at 9.3%, although banks tend to have higher accrual ratios than other companies. In the analyst ratings on this stock, they seem to be evenly divided into Strong Buys and Holds giving this stock a rating of Buy.
Not that much has happened to this stock since August. The positives are that the P/E ratio of 10.3% is below the 5 year average of 16.7%, the Yield of 4.3% is higher than the 5 year average of 3%, the current price is still below the Graham Price.
This bank is still a well run bank and, on another positive note, the number of shares have moved up because they have been doing some purchases. This bank stock is still at a good price and they have been increasing their dividends. Another good thing is that this stock has done better than the TSX Index and the TSX Financial Index both year to date and over the last year.
They are a bank with full range of financial products and services for individuals and corporations in Canada and USA. Its web site is www.td.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/td.htm. I am reloading my spreadsheet with the July 2008 figures.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
When I last looked at this stock in August 2008, the EPS estimate for the year was $4.75. However, this estimate has been lowered to $4.57. The other negative is that the Return on Equity (ROE) is likely to much lower than the 5 year average. Also, the Accrual Ratio is high at 9.3%, although banks tend to have higher accrual ratios than other companies. In the analyst ratings on this stock, they seem to be evenly divided into Strong Buys and Holds giving this stock a rating of Buy.
Not that much has happened to this stock since August. The positives are that the P/E ratio of 10.3% is below the 5 year average of 16.7%, the Yield of 4.3% is higher than the 5 year average of 3%, the current price is still below the Graham Price.
This bank is still a well run bank and, on another positive note, the number of shares have moved up because they have been doing some purchases. This bank stock is still at a good price and they have been increasing their dividends. Another good thing is that this stock has done better than the TSX Index and the TSX Financial Index both year to date and over the last year.
They are a bank with full range of financial products and services for individuals and corporations in Canada and USA. Its web site is www.td.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/td.htm. I am reloading my spreadsheet with the July 2008 figures.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
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