Trican Well Service Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) seems fine in the future. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth variable but probably low in the future. See my spreadsheet on Trican Well Service Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Certainly, a positive is that the company has restarted dividends. This points to the company being optimistic about the future. Analysts certainly think that the company will be doing better in the future. However, this is a risky stock and you should not invest any money into that you cannot afford to lose. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable.

I do not own this stock of Trican Well Service Ltd (TSX-TCW, OTC-TOLWF). I was following Canyon Services Group Inc. and Trican Well Services Ltd. had a plan of arrangement with Canyon Shareholders. I used to get a newsletter weekly from MPL Communications called Advice Hotline. They wrote up Canyon Services Group Inc on July 19, 2012 and I was impressed with it so I did a spreadsheet.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this is company has reinstated dividends in 2023. The yield is currently at 4.85% and that is a decent yield. They have had a good year in 2022. Revenue is up by 54%. EPS is up by 357% from 0.07 to 0.32. They had earnings losses in 2018, 2019 and 2020. The stock price is up 42.6% year to date.

The stock hit a low of $0.84 in November of 2019. To date this stock is up 521% to $5.22. The last 3 years to 2022 had gains of 47.37%, 64.88%, and 32.13%. Year to date this stock is up 42.62%.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,001.47 you would have bought 150 shares at $6.68 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $144.26 in dividends. The stock would be worth $549.25. Your total return would have been $639.26. This is a total return would be a loss of 4.22% per year with 5.83% from capital loss and 1.62% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$6.68	$1,001.47	150	10	$144.26	$549.00	$693.26

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth variable but probably low in the future. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4%) at 3.35%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are all extremely low or non-existent at 0%, 0% and 0.29% as not dividends were not paid between 2017 to 2022. Dividends were restarted in 2023 and there have been no increases. In the past, dividend changes varied from 412% up and 100% down, so the future is hard to know, but analysts think there will be a 6% increase in 2024.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) seems fine in the future. As you can see from the following chart, there is no data on DPRs for this company. That is because there were no dividends for the 5 years going into 2022. However, analysts expect the DPR for Earnings per Share (EPS) to be 28% in 2023 and also 28% in 2024. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share is expected to be 16% in 2023 and 15 in 2024. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2023 is expected to be 31% in 2023 and 29% in 2024.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	0.00%	0.00%
CFPS	0.00%	0.00%
FCF	0.00%	0.00%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is 0.04 and currently is 0.00 as they paid off this debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is good and high at 2.80 and currently at 2.32. The Debt Ratio is good and high at 4.03 and 4.47. For these last two ratios, a ratio of 1.50 or above is good, so they are very good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.33 and 0.33.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.04	0.00
Intang/GW	0.00	0.00
Liquidity	2.80	2.32
Liq. + CF	4.83	4.38
Debt Ratio	4.03	4.47
Leverage	1.33	1.29
D/E Ratio	0.33	0.29

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.00%	-2.15%	-2.15%	0.00%
2012	10	0.00%	-4.22%	-5.83%	1.62%
2007	15	0.00%	11.96%	7.02%	4.94%
2006	16	0.00%	4.09%	1.44%	2.65%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and therefore useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and useless. The corresponding historical ratios are negative and useless. The current P/E Ratio is 8.24 based on a stock price of $4.78 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.58. Generally speaking, any P/E Ratio below 10.00 is considered cheap. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $5.26. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.63, 1.05 and 1.26. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.91 based on a stock price of $4.78. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. However, you have to wonder how valid this test is because there are so many years of earning losses.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.28. The current P/B Ratio is 2.25 based on a stock price of $4.78, Book Value of $504M and Book Value per Share of $2.12. The current ratio is 77% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $2.37. This implies a Book Value of $545M and a P/B Ratio of 2.02 based on a stock price of $4.78. This ratio is 58% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.88. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.07 based on a stock price of $4.78, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $1.03 and Cash Flow of $237M. This ratio is 49% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.29%. The current dividend is 3.35% based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $4.78. The current dividend yield is 1054% above this yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

However, if you just use the 6 year median dividend for the years that this stock paid dividends, you get a dividend of 4.33%. The current dividend is 3.35% based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $4.78. The current dividend yield is 23% below this yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Interesting, but I do wonder how valid it is excluding all those years of no dividends.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.12. The current P/S Ratio is 1.11 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $991M, Revenue per Share of $4.31 and a stock price of $4.78. The current ratio is 0.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. This is what the P/S Ratio test is saying. It is between the two dividend yield tests I did which resulted in cheap and expensive stock prices. The P/CF Ratio test say that the stock price of reasonable. The P/E Ratio is relatively low.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Buy (6). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $6.00 with high of $6.75 and low of $5.50. The price consensus of $6.00 implies a total return of 28.87% with 3.35% from dividends and $25.52%.

The recent analysts on this stock on Stock Chase like this company, but one notes it is risky. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It has not been on the Money Sense list of dividend stocks, nor any other dividend list I follow. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool talks about how much this stock has gained over the past 3 years. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks it is a no brainer investing in this stock. He seems to be the only one of Motley Fool following this stock. The company put out a press release on Newsfile about their four quarter of 2022. The company put out a press release via Newsfile about their second quarter of 2023.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance talks about who owns shares in this company. Simply Wall Street has one warning out on this stock of unstable dividend track record and they are correct for this company. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. This agrees with Stock Chase. Stock Chase and Simply Wall Street often disagree on the number of stars out of 5.

Trican Well Service Ltd is an equipment services company. It provides products, equipment, services, and technology for use in the drilling, completion, stimulation, and reworking of oil and gas wells primarily through its continuing pressure pumping operations in Canada. The company offers services related to coiled tubing, pipeline service, cementing, fracturing and reservoir solutions. Its web site is here Trican Well Service Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Wajax Corp (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Great-West Lifeco Inc (TSX-GWO, OTC-GWLIF) ...learn more on Wednesday, September 20, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Your portfolio in stocks.... learn more on Tuesday, September 19, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wajax Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth restarting. See my spreadsheet on Wajax Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I tend to like dividend growth companies and this company has been really inconsistent in regards to dividends. They have only had 6 years of dividend increases in the last 36 years and 9 years of decreases. However, there were no dividends for some 12 years from 1992 to 2003. But even before 1992, there were dividend decreases not increases. Those are the negatives.

A positive is that they increased dividends in 2023 by some 32%, so it would seem that management is optimistic about the future. A positive is that they have done well over the past couple of years in raising Revenue and Earnings. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable.

I do not own this stock of Wajax Corp (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF). TD Waterhouse put out a report on good dividend paying stocks to own in November 2011. This was a stock they named. I had not heard of it before, so I decided to investigate it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the company had a good year in 2022. Revenue estimate was $1,854M and came in at $1,962.8M for 2022. Estimates are up for 2023 from $1,871M to $2,208M and for 2024 from $1,903M to $2.286M. AEPS was expected to be $2.93 and came in at $3.15. The AEPS for 2023 was moved from $2.79 to $3.78, and for 2024 was moved from $2.44 to $3.75.

When you look at 5 and 10 year growth, you can see that it is growing better lately.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	48.78%	8.27%
5	AEPS Growth	105.88%	15.54%
5	Net Income Growth	134.34%	18.57%
5	Cash Flow Growth	867.83%	57.46%
5	Dividend Growth	0.00%	0.00%
5	Stock Price Growth	-20.02%	-4.37%
10	Revenue Growth	33.89%	2.96%
10	AEPS Growth	-19.04%	-2.09%
10	Net Income Growth	9.81%	0.94%
10	Cash Flow Growth	276.77%	14.18%
10	Dividend Growth	-67.00%	-10.49%
10	Stock Price Growth	-51.57%	-6.99%

After keeping the dividend flat since 2016, the company raised it 33% in 2023. The stock price is up some 47% year to date.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,018.50 you would have bought 25 shares at $40.74 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $399.45 in dividends. The stock would be worth $493.25. Your total return would have been $826.58. This is a total return would be a loss of 2.60% per year with 6.99% from capital loss and 4.39% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$40.74	$1,018.50	25	10	$399.45	$493.25	$826.58

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth restarting. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.55%. The 5 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate at 4.77% and 4.50%. The 10 year median dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.05%. The 5 year dividend growth per year is at 0%. Dividends were flat from 2016 to 2022. In 2023 dividends were increased by 32%. I have 36 years of data on dividends and dividends have increase 6 of these years and have decreased 9 of those years and have been flat the rest of the time.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for Earnings per Share (EPS) the DPR for 2022 is 31% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for 2023 is expected to be 33%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) the DPR for 2022 is 32% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for 2023 is expected to be 33%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) the DPR for 2022 is 13% with 5 year coverage at 16%. The DPR for 2023 is expected to be 24%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) the DPR for 2022 is 36% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2023 is expected to be negative.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	30.67%	45.58%
AEPS	31.75%	46.45%
CFPS	13.15%	16.49%
FCF	36.21%	32.05%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 022 is 0.33 with current one at 0.40. Both a good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is 1.67 with current ratio at 1.85. These are good. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is 1.56 with current one at 1.49. I like these to be at 1.50 or higher, but 1.49 is fine. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are 2.78 and 1.78 with current ones at 3.02, and 2.02. I prefer these ratios to be less than 3.00 and 2.00. However, the ones for the full year of 2022 are more important and the current ones are close to what I like.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.33	0.40
Intang/GW	0.40	0.27
Liquidity	1.67	1.85
Liq. + CF	1.77	1.77
Debt Ratio	1.56	1.49
Leverage	2.78	3.02
D/E Ratio	1.78	2.02

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.00%	0.05%	-4.37%	4.42%
2012	10	-10.49%	-2.60%	-6.99%	4.39%
2007	15	-8.64%	4.88%	-3.18%	8.06%
2002	20	0.00%	40.28%	8.44%	31.84%
1997	25	0.00%	7.50%	0.37%	7.13%
1992	30	0.00%	11.18%	3.77%	7.41%
1987	35	1.67%	7.67%	1.96%	5.71%
1986	36	1.62%	5.79%	0.86%	4.93%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.97, 8.58 and 11.85. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.08, 11.00 and 13.92. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.73, 10.50 and 13.52. The current P/E Ratio is 7.68 based on a stock price of $29.03 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $3.78. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) Ratios. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.56, 8.08 and 10.95. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.61, 12.27 and 14.79. The current ratio is 7.68 based on a stock price of $29.03 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $3.78. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $43.42. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.68, 0.93 and 1.15. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.67 based on a stock price of $29.03. This ratio is below the low ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.43. The current P/B Ratio is 1.31 based on a stock price of $29.03, Book Value of $475.9M and Book Value per Share of $22.16. The current ratio is 8.5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.59, but the 12 month Cash Flow is negative, so I cannot test this. However, I do have Cash Flow excluding WC with a 10 year median P/CF Ratio of 5.07. The current CF excluding WC is 5.68 based on a Cash Flow for the last 12 months of 109.8M, Cash Flow per Share of $5.11 and a stock price of $29.03. The current ratio is 12% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.05%. The current dividend yield is 4.55% based on a stock price of $29.03 and a dividend of $1.32. The current dividend yield is 10% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.50%. The current dividend yield is 4.55% based on a stock price of $29.03 and a dividend of $1.32. The current dividend yield is 1% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.29. The current ratio is 0.28 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $2,208M, Revenue per Share of $105.84 and a stock price of $29.03. The current ratio is 2.8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests are showing dividend yields just above or below the median. Basically, this is because dividends were flat for a long time and just recently increase. However, flat dividends shows that a company not growing well. So, this is important. The company looks cheap from an earnings perspective, but I think that Dividend Yield tests and P/S Ratio tests are more important.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2), Hold (1). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $33.67 with a high of $37.00 and low of $30.00. The consensus price implies a total return of 20.53% with a capital gain of 15.98 and dividends of 4.55%.

There is only one analyst on Stock Chase for 2023 and the recommendation is a Buy. It is not on any of the dividend lists I follow. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this stock has upside potential. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a bet on Canadian economy’s growth. The company put out a press release on Newswire about it results for 2022. The company put out a press release on Newswire about it results for the second quarter of 2023.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; high level of non-cash earnings, and dividend of 4.53% is not well covered by cash flows. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

Wajax Corp operates an integrated distribution system, providing sales, parts, and services to a broad range of customers in diversified sectors of the Canadian economy, including: construction, forestry, mining, industrial and commercial, oil sands, transportation, metal processing, government and utilities, and oil and gas. Its web site is here Wajax Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Telus Corp (TSX-T, NYSE-TU) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Trican Well Service Ltd (TSX-TCW, OTC-TOLWF) ... learn more on Monday, September 18, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Telus Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telecom. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are generally not good and need improving. Some Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high, but Analysts expect dividend increases to continue and that the DPRs will moderate in the future. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Telus Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It is interesting that Stock Chase, a Canadian site, gives this stock 5 stars out of 5, but the Simply Wall Street, an American site, gives it 2 and one half stars out of 5. Total Return over long periods have been quite low (below 8%), so this is a negative. There is a risk because of the high Dividend Payout Ratios and this is a negative. The dividend yield (6.37%) is almost at the historical high (6.86%) so it could be quite cheap and this is a positive. Analysts do not think it will cut the dividend, in fact, mostly they think the company will raise them and so this is also a positive. If nothing else, this stock can provide passive income. My testing results is pointing to a reasonable price.

I do not own this stock of Telus Corp (TSX-T, NYSE-TU). I started to follow this stock because of a list of stock John Sartz talked about in 2008. At the Toronto Money Shows in 2009 and 2010 Aaron Dunn from KeyStone Financial Publishing Corp talked about having recommended this stock. Aaron Dunn says he likes companies with resilient business models, which are profitable and are growing their earnings. He also like companies with strong management teams, health balance sheets and compelling valuations. They look at the P/E and the Price/Cash Flow ratios. Telus Corp (TSX-T) was one of three stocks he recommended in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that some estimates have fallen. Last year AEPS was expected at $1.27, but it came in at $1.17. So, the AEPS for 2023 was lowered from $1.44 to $0.95 and 2024 from $1.71 to $1.20. AEPS for 2025 is expected at $1.39. The same is true of EPS. It was expected to be $1.21 in 2022 but came in at $1.15. Estimates for 2023 were lowered from $1.33 to $0.54 and for 2024 from $1.56 to $1.12. The estimate for 2025 is $1.36.

It is similar for Cash Flow per Share where it was expected at $3.41 but came in at $3.36. The value for 2023 was lowered from $3.93 to $2.80 and for 2024 from $4.69 to $4.10. The Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2025 is expected at 4.72.

The chart below shows growth over past 5 and 10 years. They have Revenue and Cash Flow growth and that is good. For 2022, AEPS has started to grow again. Year to date the stock price is down again by some 13%. The market has been going up and down a lot since the start of the year. TSX is up by 4% year to date. However, S&P/TSX Capped Communication Services Index, which this company is in, is down 10% this year.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	38.39%	6.71%
5	AEPS Growth	-11.03%	-2.31%
5	Net Income Growth	10.62%	2.04%
5	Cash Flow Growth	21.89%	4.04%
5	Dividend Growth	36.97%	6.49%
5	Stock Price Growth	9.74%	1.88%
10	Revenue Growth	68.59%	5.36%
10	AEPS Growth	17.29%	1.61%
10	Net Income Growth	22.53%	2.05%
10	Cash Flow Growth	49.46%	4.10%
10	Dividend Growth	123.87%	8.39%
10	Stock Price Growth	60.55%	4.85%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,009.05 you would have bought 62 shares at $16.28 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $618.87 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,620.06. Your total return would have been $2,238.93. This is a total return would be 9.66% per year with 4.85% from capital gains and 4.81% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$16.28	$1,009.05	62	10	$618.87	$1,620.06	$2,238.93

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.37%. the 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.56%, 4.41% and 4.17%. The dividends have increased at a low rate (less than 8% per year) at 6.5% per year over the past 5 year. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 3.6%. However, Telus tends to do two increases each year.

Some Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high, but Analysts expect dividend increases to continue and that the DPRs will moderate in the future. The DPR for Earnings per Share (EPS) for 2022 was 116% with 5 year coverage at 97%. It is expected to be even higher in 2023 at 265%, but then to start to moderate in 2024 to 130%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 was 114% with 5 year coverage at 97%. It is expected to be even higher in 2023 at 150%, but then to start to moderate in 2024 to 121%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 was 38% with 5 year coverage at 35%. This is an important ratio and any ratio 40% or less is good. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 was 163% with 5 year coverage at 213%. It is expected to be even higher in 2023 at 137%, but then to start to moderate in 2024 to 83%. Analysts expect dividend increases to continue and that the DPRs will moderate in the future.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	115.83%	96.55%
AEPS	113.85%	96.55%
CFPS	38.09%	35.08%
FCF	163.75%	213.64%

Debt Ratios are generally not good and need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is .60 with a current one of 0.69. These are good. The Liquidity Ratio is very low at 0.74. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is better at 1.09, but current one is still low at 0.84. It is only when you add back the current portion of the long term debt is this ratio acceptable for 2022 at 1.57 and currently at 1.39 which is still low. I prefer this to be 1.50 to better. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high for 2022 at 3.06 and 2.06 and are worse currently at 3.17 and 2.17. I prefer these to be under 3.00 and 2.00.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.60	0.69
Intang/GW	0.76	0.90
Liquidity	0.74	0.63
Liq. + CF	1.09	0.84
Liq, CF DB	1.57	1.39
Debt Ratio	1.49	1.46
Leverage	3.06	3.17
D/E Ratio	2.06	2.17

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	6.49%	6.61%	1.88%	4.74%
2012	10	18.17%	9.66%	4.85%	4.81%
2007	15	8.82%	9.53%	5.12%	4.41%
2002	20	11.54%	14.85%	9.36%	5.48%
1997	25	5.90%	6.44%	3.43%	3.01%
1992	30	6.03%	10.07%	5.73%	4.34%
1990	32	10.47%	9.59%	5.43%	4.16%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.52, 22.53 and 24.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.42, 18.62 and 19.74. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.84, 17.05 and 18.95. The current P/E Ratio is 42.30 based on a stock price of $22.84 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $.54. This ratio is very high, but the EPS estimate is quite low. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

In the above paragraph, the P/E Ratio is very high, but the EPS estimate is quite low. The P/E Ratio drops to 20.39 in 2023 with an EPS estimate of 1.12 and to 16.79 with an EPS estimate of 1.36. The ratio for 2023 is still above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. It is only the 2025 P/E Ratio that drops low. However, the longer away the estimate, the more it is unreliable.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.80, 22.46, 26.11. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.90, 16.80, 18.06. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 24.04 based on AEPS estimate for 2023 of $0.95 and a stock price of $22.84. This ratio is above high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. In the above paragraph, the P/AEPS Ratio is very high, but the EPS estimate is low. The P/E Ratio drops to 19.03 in 2023 with an EPS estimate of 1.20 and to 16.43 with an EPS estimate of 1.39. The ratio for 2023 is still above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. It is only the 2025 P/E Ratio that drops low. However, the longer away the estimate, the more it is unreliable.

I get a Graham Price of $11.74. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.44, 1.60 and 1.74. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.95 based on a stock price of $22.84. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.76. The current P/B Ratio is 2.01 based on a stock price of $22.84, Book Value of $16,407M, and Book Value per Share of $11.34. The current ratio is 27% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $10.80. The Book Value would be $15,628M and the P/B Ratio would be 2.11 based on a stock price of $22.84. This ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.17. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.16 based on a stock price of $22.84, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $2.80 and a Cash Flow of $2.80. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.17%. The current dividend yield is 6.37% based on dividends of $1.4544 and a stock price of $22.84. The current dividend yield is 53% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.41%. The current dividend yield is 6.37% based on dividends of $1.4544 and a stock price of $22.84. The current dividend yield is 45% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.02. The current P/S Ratio is 1.62 based on a stock price of $22.84. Revenue estimate for 2023 of $20,369M, and Revenue per Share of $14.08. The current ratio is 19.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests say the stock price is cheap, but it has a problem with some Dividend Payout Ratios being very high. The P/S Ratio test is saying the stock price is reasonable. The rest of the testing range from expensive (earnings) to cheap (Book Value).

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (8) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $28.53, with a high of $33.00 and low of $26.00. The consensus price suggests a total return of 31.28% with 24.91% from capital gains and 6.37% from dividends.

Stock Chase. Stock Chase gives this company 5 stars out of 5. For this first part of August analysts were say Do Not Buy. Now it is all Buy. The one Hold says that the sector is struggling with higher rates. Robin Brown on Motley Fool thinks you should buy for passive income and a great yield of 6%. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says this is Blue Chip stock on sale. The company put out a press release on Global Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2022 results. The company put out a Press Release on their second quarter of 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance looks at this company’s dividend payments and are uncomfortable with the high percentage of both its earnings and cash flow paid to shareholders as dividends. Simply Wall Street gives out 4 warnings of dividend of 6.35% is not well covered by earnings or cash flows; interest payments are not well covered by earnings; profit margins (6%) are lower than last year (10.6%) and shareholders have been diluted in the past year. For cash flows they are looking at Free Cash Flow and I generally do not like this metric because often people cannot decide on what the FCF is. The dividend is covered fine by Cash Flow. Shareholders are diluted when a company sells more shares. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5.

Telus is one of the Big Three wireless service providers in Canada. It is the incumbent local exchange carrier in the western Canadian provinces of British Columbia and Alberta, where it provides internet, television, and landline phone services. It also has a small wireline presence in eastern Quebec. Mostly because of recent acquisitions, more than 20% of Telus' sales now come from non-telecom businesses, most notably in the international business services, health, security, and agriculture industries. Its web site is here Telus Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Wajax Corp (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF) ... learn more on Friday, September 15, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2023 .... learn more on Thursday, September 14, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Accord Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine going into the future. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth flat after a decline. See my spreadsheet on Accord Financial Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I generally like companies to have a total return of 8% between capital gains and dividends. The dividends have been good on this stock, but there has not been much in capital gains. It is not well followed. It seems to be catering to small business. On the plus side they have been paying dividends to shareholders for the last 35 years. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. It is also somewhat risky.

I do not own this stock of Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF). Fred Poulin from StockTwits recommended this stock saying it was a small cap that pay dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed earnings and adjusted earnings were way down in 2022. This is due to Provisions for Credit and Loan losses of some $8.3M and Impairment of Assets of $1.9M. EPS dropped from 1.39 in 2021 to $0.17 in 2022. AEPS dropped from $1.53 and $0.24.

If you look at growth for this company over the past 5 and 10 years, they have growth in Revenue but not earnings.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	114.88%	16.53%
5	AEPS Growth	-71.43%	-22.16%
5	Net Income Growth	-77.03%	-25.49%
5	Cash Flow Growth	141.86%	19.32%
5	Cash Flow Gth w/o WC	65.15%	10.55%
5	Dividend Growth	-16.67%	-3.58%
5	Stock Price Growth	-16.30%	-3.50%
10	Revenue Growth	160.68%	10.06%
10	AEPS Growth	-68.83%	-11.00%
10	Net Income Growth	-77.62%	-13.90%
10	Cash Flow Growth	121.08%	8.26%
10	Cash Flow Gth w/o WC	-61.34%	-9.07%
10	Dividend Growth	-3.23%	-0.33%
10	Stock Price Growth	10.00%	0.96%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,001.00 you would have bought 143 shares at $7.00 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $454.74 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,101.10. Your total return would have been $1,555.84. This is a total return would be 5.38% per year with 0.96% from capital gains and 4.42% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$7.00	$1,001.00	143	10	$454.74	$1,101.10	$1,555.84

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth flat after a decline. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.01%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.61%, 3.72% and 2.63%. Dividends were increasing until 2016 and then they were flat to 202 when they were cut 44%. In 2022 the dividends were increased by 50%. They are still 17% below the 2019 dividends. Analysts expect the dividends to remain flat for the next while.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine going into the future. The DPR for Earnings per Share (EPS) for 2022 is 177% with 5 year coverage at 40%. Analysts expect the DPR for EPS to be 54% this year. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is 125% with 5 year coverage at 66%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 18% with 5 year coverage at 23%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 7% with 5 year coverage at 13%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	176.47%	40.44%
AEPS	125.00%	65.57%
CFPS	17.51%	22.84%
FCF	6.56%	12.79%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2022 is high at 5.18 and rising to 7.35 currently. However, for financials, we often look at Long Term Debt/Coverage Assets Ratio for 2022 for this stock is fine at 0.74 for 2022. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 for is high and very good for this company, but it is not an important ratio for financials. The Debt Ratio is fine for Financials for 2022 at 1.28. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 at 4.87 and 3.81 and the currently ones at 5.16 and 4.11 are fine for financials.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	5.18	7.35
Lg Term A	0.74	0.78
Intang/GW	0.23	0.29
Liquidity	14.26	16.56
Liq. + CF	15.15	15.23
Debt Ratio	1.28	1.26
Leverage	4.87	5.16
D/E Ratio	3.81	4.11

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	-3.58%	-0.09%	-3.50%	3.40%
2012	10	-0.33%	5.38%	0.96%	4.42%
2007	15	2.09%	3.60%	-0.25%	3.85%
2002	20	2.05%	8.75%	2.13%	6.62%
1997	25	1.64%	8.10%	2.50%	5.59%
1992	30	6.95%	11.59%	4.96%	6.62%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.05, 12.34 and 13.62. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.24, 11.44 and 12.65. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.57, 10.59 and 11.94. The current P/E Ratio is 10.23 based on a stock price of $5.73 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.56. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Note that the EPS is expected to be much higher in 2024 at $1.18 and that gives a P/E Ratio of 4.86.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.48, 16.16 and 17.84. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.85, 9.86 and 11.06. The current ratio is 71.63 based on the AEPS for the last 12 months of $0.08 and a stock price of $5.73. The ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I went back to check my figures and the 12 months AEPS is $0.08. It did seem too low. The company has an AEPS for 2023 of $0.24 and the 6 month AEPS to June 2022 is $0.39 and the 6 month AEPS to June 2023 is $0.23. This gives a 12 month AEPS for $0.08. That is $0.24 less $0.39 and plus $0.23 is $0.08.

I get a Graham Price of $12.19. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.65, 0.73 and 0.81. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.47 based on a stock price $5.73. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.99. The current P/B Ratio is 0.49 based on a Book Value of $100.9M, Book Value per Share of $11.79 and a stock price of $5.73. The current ratio is 51% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share for 2023 of $12.10. The Book Value would be $103.6M and the ratio would be 0.47 based on a stock price of $5.73. This ratio is 52% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I cannot do a stock check on the Price/Cash Flow Ratio but I can do one for the Price Cash Flow without Working Capital. The current Cash Flow is negative, but without the WC it is positive. That 10 P/CF Ratio is 6.26. The current ratio is 3.91 based on Cash Flow without WC for the last 12 months of $12.54, Cash Flow per Share of $1.46 and a stock price of $5.73. The current ratio is 37% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.63%. The current dividend yield is 5.24% based on a dividend of $0.30 and a stock price of $5.73. The current yield is 99% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.72%. The current dividend yield is 5.24% based on a dividend of $0.30 and a stock price of $5.73. The current yield is 41% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.22. The current P/S Ratio is 0.65 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $76M, Revenue per Share of $8.88 and a stock price of $5.73. The current ratio is 71% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most of the other tests say that the stock price is cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find one Strong Buy (1). The consensus would be a buy. The 12 month stock price is $11.80. This implies a total return of 111.17% with 105.93% from capital gains and 5.24% from dividends. There seems to be only one analyst following this stock and I looked at several sites.

The last entry is dated in 2014 on Stock Chase. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 star out of 5. It is noted that this company is a niche leader to small business. There seems to be nothing on Motley Fool. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter results for 2022. The company put out a Press Release on their second quarter of 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talk about the company’s dividend. They do not seem to realize that the reason for the present decline in earnings was due to Provisions for Credit. Simply Wall Street gives 3 warnings for this stock of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; dividend of 5.01% is not well covered by earnings or cash flows; and does not have a meaningful market cap (CA$51M).

Accord Financial Corp is a provider of asset-based financial services to businesses. Its asset-based financial services include asset-based lending, including factoring, lease financing, working capital financing, credit protection and receivables management, and supply chain financing for importers. The company's geographical segments include Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Accord Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Cargojet Inc (TSX-CJT, OTC-CGJTF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Telus Corp (TSX-T, NYSE-TU) ... learn more on Wednesday, September 13, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Financial Apps.... learn more on Tuesday, September 12, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Cargojet Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth just in the moderate range. See my spreadsheet on Cargojet Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price hit a high in 2020 and the stock price has been going down ever since. The P/E Ratios were really high in 2020. The current P/E Ratios are still a bit high in the 19 range, but not unusually high. This stock is rated a High Risk. For dividend growth companies, I generally do not buy unless the dividend yield is at least 1% and this company’s yield is just over 1%. It is still growing well. I think this stock should do well in the future, but I doubt it will do as well as it has in the past. The current stock price is probably reasonable.

I do not own this stock of Cargojet Inc (TSX-CJT, OTC-CGJTF). I read about this stock on Motley Fool in an article by Joey Frenette. See article.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the website is not set up properly for downloading financials. I had to go into their coding to get the financials I wanted. I realize that not everyone will be able to do this. Although this is not the only company where I found problems in getting information I wanted.

This company has grown a lot since it first went public 17 year ago. See the chart below on the 5 and 10 year growth. The dividend growth has been the lowest and it mostly barely makes 1%.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	155.92%	20.68%
5	AEPS Growth	425.91%	39.37%
5	Net Income Growth	704.22%	51.73%
5	Cash Flow Growth	258.96%	29.12%
5	Dividend Growth	48.57%	8.24%
5	Stock Price Growth	98.38%	14.68%
10	Revenue Growth	480.61%	19.23%
10	AEPS Growth	2014.58%	35.68%
10	Net Income Growth	5265.72%	48.92%
10	Cash Flow Growth	1287.85%	30.09%
10	Dividend Growth	89.85%	6.62%
10	Stock Price Growth	1260.82%	29.83%

If you had invested in this company in December 2005, for $1,000.35 you would have bought 105 shares at $9.60 per share. In December 2022, after 17 years you would have received $1,400.12 in dividends. The stock would be worth $12,216.75. Your total return would have been $13,616.87. This is a total return would be 19.53% per year with 15.81% from capital gains and 3.72% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$9.60	$1,008.00	105	17	$1,400.12	$12,216.75	$13,616.87

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,000.35 you would have bought 117 shares at $8.55 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $934.01 in dividends. The stock would be worth $13,612.95. Your total return would have been $14,546.96. This is a total return would be 33.24% per year with 29.83% from capital gains and 3.41% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$8.55	$1,000.35	117	10	$934.01	$13,612.95	$14,546.96

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth just in the moderate range. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.17%. The 5 and 10 year median ratios are also low at 0.85% and 1.29%. The historical dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.04%. The historical dividend yield is so much higher because this company started as an income trust and income trusts have higher dividend yields. The dividend growth is currently moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 8.2% per year over the past 5 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently good. The DPR for Earnings per Share (EPS) for 2022 is 11% and the 5 year coverage is 29%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 16% and 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 6% and 5 year coverage at 7%. The DPR Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 11% and the 5 year coverage is negative.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	10.76%	29.21%
AEPS	15.71%	39.04%
CFPS	5.91%	6.53%
FCF	11.25%	-18.63%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is good at 0.31 and still good currently at 0.32. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is low at 0.77, but if you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is good at 2.52. The current one with Cash Flow is fine at 1.43. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good currently at 2.39. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are fine at 2.39 and 1.39.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.31	0.33
Intang/GW	0.03	0.03
Liquidity	0.77	0.73
Liq. + CF	2.52	1.43
Debt Ratio	1.72	1.78
Leverage	2.39	2.29
D/E Ratio	1.39	1.29

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.	check
2017	5	8.24%	15.93%	14.68%	1.24%	15.93%
2012	10	6.62%	33.24%	29.83%	3.41%	33.24%
2007	15	-0.36%	17.20%	14.98%	2.22%	17.20%
2005	17	2.15%	19.53%	15.81%	3.72%	19.53%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.02, 14.87 and 23.28. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.63, 20.60 and 26.83. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.60, 14.87 and 18.84. The current ratio is 19.72 based on a stock price of $96.25 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $4.88. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.09, 21.72 and 36.53. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.16, 24.02 and 32.40. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 19.89 based on a stock price of $96.25 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $4.84. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $74.78. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.33, 2.96 and 3.71. The current ratio is 1.29 based on a stock price of $96.25. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.31. The current P/B Ratio is 1.87 based on a stock price of $96.25, Book Value of $883.7M and Book Value per Share of $51.35. The current ratio is 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $51.40. With a Book Value of $884.6M and a stock price of $56.25, this implies a P/B Ratio of 1.87. This ratio is 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.49. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.60 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $11.60, Cash Flow of $199.6M and a stock price of $96.25. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.04%. The current dividend yield is 1.19% based on dividends of 1.144 and a stock price of $96.25. The current dividend yield is 71% lower than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem with this test is that the company was put on the TSX as an income trust. Income trust companies can have quite high dividend yields.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.29%. The current dividend yield is 1.19% based on dividends of 1.144 and a stock price of $96.25. The current dividend yield is 8% lower than the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 0.85%. The current dividend yield is 1.19% based on dividends of 1.144 and a stock price of $96.25. The current dividend yield is 40% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.97. The current P/S Ratio is 1.74 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $954M, Revenue per Share of $55.43 and a stock price of $96.25. The current ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests are not as good as usual because the company used to be an income trust company which had high dividend yields. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yield tests are fairly reasonable. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is reasonable. Most of the other testing is showing the stock price as relatively cheap to reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (3) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $144.33, with a high of $197.00 and a low of $110.00. The consensus stock price implies a total return of 51.25% with 50.06% from capital gains and 1.19% from dividends.

There are several analysts saying Do Not Buy on Stock Chase . Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. This seems to be because the stock has been treating down since 2020. The ones saying buy, say it is a long term buy. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a buy because it has strong fundamentals. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a buy because it has potential for long term growth. The company put out a press release on Aviation News about their results for 2022. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their second quart of 2023.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talk about who owns shares in this company. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings on this stock of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.2% per year for the next 3 years; and high level of non-cash earnings. When there are non-cash earnings, look at the Adjusted Earnings per Share. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5.

Cargojet Inc operates a domestic air cargo co-load network between sixteen major Canadian cities. The company provides dedicated aircraft to customers on an Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance basis, operating between points in Canada, USA, Mexico, and Europe. The company also operates scheduled international routes for multiple cargo customers between the USA and Bermuda, between Canada, UK, and Germany, and between Canada and Mexico. Its web site is here Cargojet Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF) ... learn more on Monday, September 11, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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