FirstService Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Real Estate. The stock price would seem to be on the expensive side currently. Shareholders have done well with this stock over the longer term. Mostly the dividend yields are below 1% and I do not buy companies when their yields are below 1%. See my spreadsheet on FirstService Corp.

I do not own this stock of FirstService Corp (TSX-FSV, NASDAQ-FSV) but I used to. I bought FirstService Corp in 2002 as it looked like a good solid company that knows how to make money. By 2010 the company was underperforming so I sold the stock and kept the preferred shares until the end of the year before selling them too. Preferred shares are not by favorite why of getting dividends. The company is now paying dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it would appear that the company had a bad year because of the $6.58 EPS loss for 2019. However, a $314,379 charge was made against the earnings because of the settlement of made with Jay S. Hennick, the Company’s Founder and Chairman to eliminate the multiple voting shares and his long-term incentive arrangement (the “LTIA”). Otherwise, the EPS for 2019 would be $8.14.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth low. Dividends are paid in US$. The current dividend is low (below 1%) at just 0.52%. The 5 and 6 year median dividend yields are also low at 0.77% and 0.88%. Dividends were started in 2013. The growth is low (under 8% per year) at 7.90% per year for the last 5 years. The last dividend increase was higher at a moderate level (8% to 14% ranges) at 10% and was done in 2020.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS is non-calculable for 2019 and the 5 year coverage is also non-calculable. This is because of the big earnings loss in 2019. However, this is also because of one-time special charge. The DPR for EPS is expected to be 33% in 2020 and this is good. The CPR for CFPS for 2019 is 25% with 5 year coverage at 17%. This is a good rate. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 36% with 5 year coverage at 23%.

Debt Ratios could be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.20. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.44. The Debt Ratio is a bit lower than what I like at 1.44. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 at 3.26 and 2.26. These are also a bit high as I prefer hem to be under 3.00 and 2.00, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	10.36%	33.46%	32.11%	1.35%
2009	10	8.72%	29.08%	27.94%	1.14%
2004	15		17.03%	16.55%	0.48%
1999	20		18.63%	18.25%	0.38%
1995	24		21.87%	21.51%	0.36%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	7.90%	30.42%	29.27%	1.15%
2009	10	6.54%	26.17%	25.38%	0.78%
2004	15		16.49%	16.11%	0.38%
1999	20		19.22%	18.91%	0.31%
1995	24		22.06%	21.77%	0.28%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 32.48, 42.62 and 50.41. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 31.11, 39.56 and 46.76. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.70, 18.48 and 25.12. The current P/E Ratio is 66.08 based on a stock price of $163.26 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $2.47 ($1.93 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $32.28. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 3.26, 4.04 and 5.09. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.06 based on a stock price of $163.26. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 8.47. The current P/B Ratio is 8.73 based on a stock price of $127.88, Book Value of $638M, and Book Value per Share of $14.64. The current P/B Ratio is 3% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$. (This testing is slightly different is CDN$ where the difference is 0% and so the stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but at the median.)

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.72. The current P/CF Ratio is 26.64 based on a Stock price of $127.88, Cash Flow per Share estimate of $4.80 and Cash Flow $209M. The current P/CF ratio is 109% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You get similar results in CDN$. The estimate Cash Flow per Share is some 92% above the Cash Flow per Share for 2019, so you have to wonder?

I get an historical and 6 year median dividend yield of 0.90%. The current dividend yield is 0.52% based on dividends of $0.66 and a stock price of $127.88. The current dividend yield is 43% below the historical and 6 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You get similar results in CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.78. The current P/S Ratio is 2.05 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $2,718M, Revenue per Share of $62.38 and a stock price of $127.88. The current ratio is 162% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You get similar results in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The dividend yield test shows this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The P/E Ratios, the P/GP Ratios and the P/B Ratios for this stock are very high over the past 10 years.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that the stock price is relatively expensive. Looking at long term return now, the company has done quite well for Shareholders. I like dividend growth companies, but this company currently and mostly has very low dividend yields. You would not buy this company for the dividend. The last dividend increase was moderate (at 10%) and this is a good sign.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (2) and Hold (4) recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $172.81 ($135.00 US$). This implies a total return of 6.37% with 5.85% from capital gains and 0.52% from dividends.

Analysts like this stock on Stock Chase. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks this is a great stock to buy in the next market crash. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the CEO of this company is paid a higher remuneration than the industry median. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about ownership of this company. The blogger Dividend Earner takes a look at this stock.

FirstService Corp operates in two business divisions: FirstService Residential and FirstService Brands. FirstService Residential has service contracts to manage thousands of residential communities. FirstService Brands provides property services to residential and commercial customers. The company earns the majority of its revenue in the United States, with the remaining revenue generated in Canada. Its web site is here FirstService Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSX-KEG.UN, OTC-KRIUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Stantec Inc (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN) ... learn more on Monday, December 14, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Keg Royalties Income Fund

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Consumer. The stock price is currently relatively cheap. With lower dividends, DPR’s are much better. Analysts seem to have lost interest in this stock. It is totally dependent on one other company for its income. Neither are a good sign. Recipe Unlimited Corporation’s debt ratios are not good. See my spreadsheet on Keg Royalties Income Fund.

I do not own this stock of Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSX-KEG.UN, OTC-KRIUF). This was a stock suggested by one of my readers. I like dinning at The Keg. I find the food very good. At stock forums I viewed, investors liked this company as it is guaranteed 4% of the sales at Keg restaurants as income to the fund. So, I decided to take a look at it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that over 99% of the Balance Sheet depends on Keg Restaurants Ltd. KRL is owned by Recipe Unlimited Corp (TSX-RECP, OTC-RCPOF). The only information that is in the financial reports for Keg Royalties is the Revenue, that KRL receives on which the income of Keg Royalties is based. I took a quick look online of Financial statements for RECP for the past 5 years to 2019. Revenue is going up, but Net Income is going down. The Balance sheet for RECP shows Shareholders’ equity going down. The Cash Flow statements shows Operating Income going up.

There is interesting accounting on the third quarterly report. Gross profit is $44.895 (last year it was $8.274 which is rather normal for this company). The Gross Profit is so high because the company added in $39,696 for Fair value gain on Exchangeable Partnership units. The Basic earnings per Fund Unit is $3.95 with the Diluted earnings per Fund Unit at $0.46. There is this big difference because to calculated the Diluted profit for the period, the $39,696 for Fair value gain on Exchangeable Partnership units is taken off the profit for the period. The company has this accounting each year, but for the 3rd quarter of 2018, the amount was $1,445 which was in line with other years.

The dividend yields are currently moderate with dividend growth going in the wrong direction. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% range) at 4.95%. The 5 and 10 year dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.57% and 5.37%. The historical dividend yield is high (7% or higher) at 7.33%. This stock used to be an income trust and this accounts for past high dividend yields.

In the past the dividends have grown, but growth was never consistent and dividends were often flat. Currently dividends are going down. The restaurant business has been hit hard by Covid. After a 63% decline in dividends, dividends went back up by 43%. Net result is a decline in dividends of 47%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are improving. They never got their DPR for EPS under control since changing from an Income Trust. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was 102% with 5 year coverage at 123%. The DPR for 2020 is expected to be 56% with a 5 year coverage of 111%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 53% with 5 year coverage also at 53%. This is too high. The DPR for CPFS is expect to be around 39% in 2020. There is some agreement in Free Cash Flow. The DPR for FCF for 2019 was 101% with 5 year coverage at 98%.

Debt Ratios are fine for Keg, but not for RECP. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.80. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.04. The Debt Ratio is 1.71. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 is 2.41 and 1.41. Since it really counts on what Recipe Unlimited Corporation TSX-RECP does, as some 99% of the assets of Keg depend on this company. As far as I gather from online data, RECP’s Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.66 (which means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities), and Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.18. This are not good ratios.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	3.41%	4.07%	-2.66%	6.73%
2009	10	-1.18%	12.38%	3.62%	8.76%
2004	15	0.33%	9.37%	1.16%	8.22%
2001	18	4.47%	11.47%	2.38%	9.09%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.86, 18.65, 20.13. The corresponding 10 year ratios is 17.02, 18.98 and 20.93. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.90, 13.11 and 14.31. The current P/E Ratio is 10.52 based on a stock price of $12.10 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $1.15. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $17.99. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.28, 1.43 and 1.57. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.67 based on a stock price of $12.10. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.95. The current P/B Ratio is 0.97 based on a stock price of $12.10, Book Value of $142M, and Book Value per Share of $12.51. The current ratio is 51% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.22. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.39 based on last 12 months Cash Flow of $18.6M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.64 and a stock price of $12.10. The current ratio is 23% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.33%. The current dividend yield is 4.96% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $12.10. The current dividend yield is 32% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem is the recent dividend cut.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.37%. The current dividend yield is 4.96% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $12.10. The current dividend yield is 22% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem is the recent dividend cut.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.36. The current P/S Ratio is 4.52 based on Royalty Income Estimate for 2020 of $30.4M, Income per Share of $2.68 and a stock price of $12.10. The current ratio is 39% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests are not good ones because of the recent cut in dividends. Of course, when a company cuts the dividend, it is never a good sign. The P/S Ratio test says the stock price is cheap, as does most of the other testing.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price is reasonable. The dividend used to grow although once it because a corporation, it could not afford the dividends it was paying. They seem now under control. My problem with the stock that it is totally reliant on one company which is Keg Restaurants, for which I cannot find financials. Keg Restaurants is owned by Recipe Unlimited Corp and the financials I find online show that their debt ratios are not the sort I like. Personally, I would not buy this stock.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find one Buy (1) for one month ago. There are no current recommendations I can find. There is no price consensus. It is not a good sign when analysts lose interest in a stock.

The last analyst comments for this stock on Stock Chase was in 2017 and it was rather negative. Kris Knutson on Motley Fool likes this stock for its higher yield. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about who owns shares in this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street looks at insider trading. He says there is only insider selling, but it is so low, he does not think it matters much. The Keg announces its third quarterly results for 2020 on the Keg Site.

Keg Royalties Income Fund is a Canada based company. The organization works under the Restaurant business sector. The target market of this company is those people who want higher end casual dining experience. The majority of its revenue is in the form of royalty income. Its web site is here Keg Royalties Income Fund.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Stella-Jones Inc (TSX-SJ, OTC-STLJF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be FirstService Corp (TSX-FSV, NASDAQ-FSV) ... learn more on Friday, December 11, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Investing Sins.... learn more on Thursday, December 10, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Stella-Jones Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Materials. The stock price is relatively cheap on this dividend growth stock. It also has great debt ratios. The current dividend is good for this stock at 1.33% as this stock often has yields below 1%. Insiders are buying. See my spreadsheet on Stella-Jones Inc.

I do not own this stock of Stella-Jones Inc (TSX-SJ, OTC-STLJF). I started a spreadsheet on this stock in mid-2009 because of a favorable report I read on this stock. It was considered to be a dividend growth stock and I am always on the lookout for dividend growth stocks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company has great debt ratios. For example, the Liquidity Ratio for 2019 was 6.34 with 5 year median at 6.70. The Debt Ratio for 2019 was 2.30 and 5 year also at 2.30. I like these ratios to be 1.50 or above. So, the ratios for this company are very good.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (under 2%) at 1.33%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 0.98%, 1.00% and 1.07%. The dividend growth is currently moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 14.9%. Although the last increase, which was for 2020 was low (below 8%) at 7.14%. You can see in the chart below that in the past the dividend growth tended toward good (15% or higher).

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 24% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 12% with 5 year coverage at 11%. Site do not agree on Free Cash Flow, but they are similar. The DPR for FCF for 2019 is 175% with 5 year coverage at 36%. FCF was low in 2019. Analysts expect the DPR for FCF in 2020 to be at around 17%.

Debt Ratios are very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.24. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 6.54. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 2.30. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2019 is 1.77 and 0.77.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	14.87%	4.02%	2.76%	1.26%
2009	10	20.06%	21.13%	19.28%	1.85%
2004	15	24.88%	26.09%	23.80%	2.29%
1999	20	21.23%	24.66%	22.72%	1.94%
1994	25		16.37%	15.49%	0.88%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.83, 20.24 and 22.30. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.54, 18.17 and 21.44. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.14, 12.43 and 16.03. The current P/E Ratio is 14.91 based on a stock price of $45.03 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $3.02. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $38.04. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.22, 1.50 and 1.77. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.18 based on a stock price of $45.03. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.60. The current P/B Ratio is 2.11 based on a Book Value of $1,437M, Book Value per Share of $21.30 and a stock price of $45.03. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 21.08. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.88 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 of $3.79, Cash Flow of $191M and a stock price of $45.03. The current ratio is 44% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.07%. The current dividend yield is 1.33% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $45.03. The current dividend yield is 25% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.00%. The current dividend yield is 1.33% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $45.03. The current dividend yield is 33% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.55. The current P/S Ratio is 1.23 based on a stock price of $45.03, Revenue estimate for 2020 of $2,458M and Revenue per Share of $36.55. The current ratio is 21% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is showing the dividend yield tests and is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the test but the P/B Ratio test shows the same thing. The P/B Ratio shows the stock price as close to cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a dividend growth stock, which is the kind I like. The stock price is not only reasonable, but it is cheap. It also has good debt ratios which is also something I like.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (4) and Hold (2). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $51.63. This implies a total return of 15.99%, with 14.66% from capital gains and $1.33% from dividends.

An analyst says on Stock Chase that this stock has not been this cheap in a decade. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool likes this stock because of its resiliency in the pandemic. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes this stock because it is a growing business and the CEO pay is reasonable. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the company has the ability to adequately reinvest at a good rate of return.. Brian Kelly on The Sault Star talks about his investment in this stock.

Stella-Jones Inc produces and sells lumber and wood products. The company sells products in five main customer categories. The railway ties category, the utility poles category, the other three categories are residential lumber for use in housing construction, industrial products for use in marine and building industries, and logs and lumber, which sells wood products to homebuilding markets. The majority of revenue comes from the United States. Its web site is here Stella-Jones Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was First Capital REIT (TSX-FCR, OTC-FCRGF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSX-KEG.UN, OTC-KRIUF) ... learn more on Wednesday, December 9, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Investing.... learn more on Tuesday, December 8, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Great Rupture by Viktor Shvets learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

First Capital REIT

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying REIT. The stock price is cheap to reasonable. It is currently not a dividend growth stock, but was one in the past. See my spreadsheet on First Capital Realty.

I do not own this stock of First Capital Realty (TSX-FCR.UN, OTC-FCXXF). Myowneradvistor.com asked me to look into this stock. In 2011 a reader asked me to review this real estate stock. Also, the site Canadian Dividend Stock site mentions this company as a top Canadian REIT.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed sometime when looking at Free Cash Flow at different sites, I wonder if I am looking at the same company. With this company, I checked and I was looking at the same company, but FCF are extremely different. Neither set of figures make any sense.

The dividend yields are currently good with dividend growth currently non-existent. The current dividend is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.51%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.21%, 4.56% and 4.89%. The dividend increases used to be low at around 2% per year, but there has been no increase in dividends since 2016.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 49% with 5 year coverage at 53%. Unfortunately, analysts feel that the DPR for 2020 will be in the range of 316% (with 5 year coverage at 57%). The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 44% with 5 year coverage at 48%. This is too high and would prefer it to be at 40% or less of CFPS. I do not know what to make of the Free Cash Flow I can find so I am not covering this under DPR.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.97. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.63 and if you add in cash flow after dividends, you get only to 0.77. Only by adding back the current portion of the long term debt do you get a reasonable ratio of 1.82. (You have to ensure that this current portion of long term debt is rolled over.) The Debt Ratio is 1.79 and this is good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are fine at 2.27 and 1.27, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.35%	6.68%	2.26%	4.42%
2009	10	0.73%	9.63%	4.42%	5.20%
2004	15	1.19%	9.66%	3.89%	5.77%
1999	20	2.17%	12.16%	5.16%	7.00%
1994	25	6.46%	12.96%	5.38%	7.58%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.17, 12.89 and 14.60. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.73. 13.40 and 15.06. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.30, 18.83 and 20.41. The current P/E Ratio is 57.78 based on a stock price of $15.60 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $0.27. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, the EPS drops in 2020 by some 84%. If we look at the P/E Ratio for 2021, which is now not far away, the P/E Ratio is 15.45 based on a stock price of $15.60 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $1.01. The last 12 month EPS is also $1.01 and that is to the end of the third quarter, so you have to wonder about an EPS for 2020 of just $0.27. However, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Since this stock is now a REIT, we should also look at the Price/Funds from Operations Ratios. The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.00, 17.61 and 18.42. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.03, 17.65 and 18.88. The current P/FFO Ratio is 15.76 based on a stock price of $15.60 and FFO estimate for 2020 of 0.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $20.75. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 0.96 and 1.03. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.75 based on a stock price of $15.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.15. The current P/B Ratio is 0.81 based on a Book Value of $4,234M, Book Value per Share of $19.32 and a stock price of $15.60. The current ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 17.45. The current P/CF Ratio is 15.15 based on Cash Flow per Share for last 12 months of $1.03, Cash Flow of $227 and a stock price of $15.60. The current ratio is 13% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.89%. The current dividend yield is 5.51% based on dividends of $0.86 and a stock price of $15.60. The current dividend yield is 13% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.56%. The current dividend yield is 5.51% based on dividends of $0.86 and a stock price of $15.60. The current dividend yield is 21% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.26. The current P/S Ratio is 5.06 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $675M, Revenue per Share of $3.08, and a stock price of $15.60. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is almost cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. The median dividend yield tests say the stock price is cheap to reasonable and this is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test which says the stock price is reasonable, but it is very close to the cheap side. Most of the rest of the testing is showing the stock as either cheap or reasonable.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is reasonable. I like dividend growth stocks and this stock is currently not a dividend growth stock. With REITs, l like the dividends to at least grow at the rate of inflation when the yield is good. Currently, the dividends are not growing and the last increase was 5 years ago. However, dividends or distributions did grow in the past. If the company does again grow their distribution in the future, I would feel differently about this stock.

Historical background inflation is 3%, but we are in, supposedly, a historically low inflation period. (Although I really doubt this as my expenses have grown more than the low inflation rate the government is showing.)

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (2) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $17.79. This implies a total return of 19.55% with 14.04% from capital gains and 5.51% from dividends.

The last analyst to remark on this stock on Stock Chase did not like it because it is in the retail space. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool thinks you should buy this stock because it is way too cheap. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street nicely summarizes this stock. It gets two stars out of 5 stares. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the CEO has a higher than industry median remuneration. The company announces the Third Quarterly Results for 2020 on Newswire.

First Capital REIT is a developer, owner, and operator of mixed-use urban real estate in Canada's populated centres. The company's focus is on creating thriving neighbourhoods that create value for businesses, residents, communities, and investors. Its web site is here First Capital Realty.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Wild Brain Ltd (TSX-WILD, OTC- WLDBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Stella-Jones Inc (TSX-SJ, OTC-STLJF) ... learn more on Monday, December 7, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wild Brain Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Consumer Sector Stock. The stock price is probably cheap, but might just be reasonable. Debt Ratios need improving. They had dividends in the past, but could not cover them with EPS. This stock is not expected to see a profit until 2023. See my spreadsheet on Wild Brain Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Wild Brain Ltd (TSX-WILD, OTC-WLDBF). In the CanTech Letter of May 2014 Byron Capital says investors should accumulate DHX Media aggressively. I also have a report on this stock from Global Maxfin Capital who rates this stock a strong buy in January 2014. They have a year-end date of June of each year, so I am covering June 2020 in this report.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company has had a name change from DHX Media Ltd (TSX-DHX, OTC-DHXMF) to Wild Brain Ltd (TSX-WILD, OTC- WLDBF) after I last reviewed the stock last year. The dividends were not well covered in the past. They have had earning losses since 2017 and analysts do not see any positive earnings until 2023.

The dividends have been suspended (in 2019). Dividends used to be low (under 2%) to moderate (2% to 4%). The low dividend yield is 0% and the high is 2.93%. The 5, and 7 median dividend yields are low at 0.80 and 0.89. The average increase in dividends over the past 7 years was 9.8%

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) shows dividends were not well covered in the past. Because of earning losses, I cannot calculate the DPR for the last year of dividends in 2018. The 5 year coverage at that point was 99%. They were paying out more than they could afford. The DPR for 2018 for CFPS was 27% with 5 year coverage at 52%. The sites do not agree on Free Cash Flow, but none suggest that the dividends were affordable.

Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is too high at 2.26. It should be lower than 1.00 and some analysts like it at 0.50 or lower. It is better in 2021 because of a higher stock price, but long term debt also went up. The Liquidity Ratio at 1.86 is good. The Debt Ratio at 1.42 is a bit low and I prefer it to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 14.09 and 9.89. I prefer these to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	-31.84%	-32.59%	0.75%
2009	10	0.00%	7.22%	4.10%	3.12%
2004	15		-2.18%	-3.56%	1.39%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.03, 26.68 and 33.68. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.40, 18.20 and 24.00. The current P/E Ratio is negative because analysts expect a $0.04 EPS loss this year. Next year the EPS is also a loss at $0.06. The P/E Ratio for 2023 is 34.20 as the EPS is expected to be $0.05and the current stock price is $1.71. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I am guessing a Graham Price of $0.72 is probably fair. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.42, 2.37 and 3.19. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.37 based on a stock price of $1.71. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.31. The current P/B Ratio is 3.71 based on a Book Value of $79M, Book Value per Share of $0.46 and a stock price of $1.71. The current ratio is 60% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.43. The current 4.89 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $0.35, Cash Flow of $59.8M and a stock price of $1.71. The current ratio is 10% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I cannot do any dividend yield tests because this stock has suspended it dividend.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.89. The current P/S Ratio is 0.68 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $443M, Revenue per Share of $2.53 and a stock price of $1.71. The current ratio is 64% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The stock price testing is all over the place and this is mainly because this company is having a hard time and it is showing up in their financials. For example, the Book Value is rapidly falling and that is why this test shows the stock price as expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably reasonable, but this would be a risky stock to buy as it is not expected to do anything much in the near term.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (6) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $1.71. This would imply a total return of 0%. There can only be return from capital gains as the dividends are suspended.

There are no recently entries on Stock Chase but all the old ones are negative. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks the new deal with Apple TV is positive for this company. The executive overview on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 starts out of 5 and says it will be unprofitable in the near term. . The company’s first quarterly results for 2021 are on WFTM News. An article on The Chronicle Herald talks about how a change in YouTube’s advertising policy affect revenues at WildBrain.

WildBrain Ltd is a children's content and brands company, recognized globally for properties such as Peanuts, Strawberry Shortcake, Caillou, Inspector Gadget, and Degrassi franchise. The company owns the independent library of children's content. It licenses its content to broadcasters and streaming services worldwide and generates royalties through its consumer products program. Its web site is here Wild Brain Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Northland Power Inc (TSX-NPI, OTC-NPIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be First Capital REIT (TSX-FCR, OTC-FCRGF) ... learn more on Friday, November 4, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy December 2020.... learn more on Thursday, December 03, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Northland Power Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Utility. The stock price appears to be on the expensive side. It is not a dividend growth stock. The Debt level is worrisome. However, the market seems to like this stock and it is current doing well as far as a rising stock price is concerned. See my spreadsheet on Northland Power Inc.

I do not own this stock of Northland Power Inc (TSX-NPI, OTC-NPIFF). This company is into generating electric power. I have a lot invested in pipelines and I would like to have more invested in electric power as part of my utility’s investments. I read a report on this stock that said it was a good defensive stock to buy. That is, it is a good stock to hold in a stock market correction. I can certainly see the logic of using utility stocks as defensive stocks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed debt ratios that I do not like. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is high at 1.29. This needs to be under 1.00. This is occurring with a rapidly rising stock price. The Debt Ratio is just 1.17 and I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 6.94 and 5.94. I prefer these to be under 3.00 and 2.00. Too much debt can spell trouble in hard times.

On the other hand, I noticed that the market keeps pushing the stock price higher. This stock is already up almost 70% so far this year. If you look at total return below, this stock has done very well. It will not do so well in the future on total return as the dividend yields are considerably lower. Total return considers both capital gains and dividend in calculating the return.

The dividend yields are currently moderate with dividend growth low almost non-existent. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4%) at 2.59%. This company used to be an income trust and income trust have high yields. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are good (5% to 6%) at 5.13% and 6.18%. The historical median dividend yield is high (7% or higher) at 7.69%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is at 2.13% per year. However, in the past 5 years (in fact past 11) years, there has been only one dividend increase and it was for 11.1%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The DPR for 2019 for EPS is 71% with 5 year coverage at 124%. This is too high, of course. The DPR for CFPS is 18% with 5 year coverage at 23% and this is fine. I looked at 3 sites for Free Cash Flow and all had a different answer. So, the DPR for FCF for 2019 could or could not be fine. The 5 year coverage is not because of years of negative FCF, which all sites say.

Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is too high at 1.29. It needs to be under 1.00 and some analysts like it under 0.50. It has been too high for the past 5 years that I have looked at. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.91. However, if you add in cash flow after dividends, which you need to do for most utilities, it is good at 1.64. the Debt Ratio is much too low at 1.17. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 6.94 and 5.94.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	2.13%	18.16%	12.21%	5.95%
2009	10	1.06%	15.34%	8.58%	6.76%
2004	15	0.99%	10.47%	4.46%	6.01%
1999	20	1.28%	15.19%	6.24%	8.94%
1997	22	3.20%	12.05%	4.65%	7.40%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.68, 15.65 and 17.62. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.38, 15.26 and 17.14. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.41, 15.49 and 17.86. The current P/E Ratio is 23.04 based on a stock price of $46.31 and EPS estimate for 2020 of 2.01. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $16.85. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.13, 2.50 and 2.69. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.75 based on a stock price of $46.31. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.66. The current P/B Ratio is 7.38 based on a Book Value of $1,267M, Book Value per Share of $6.28 and a stock price of $46.31. The current ratio is 58% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.08. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.82 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 of $5.92, Cash Flow of $1,194M, and a stock price of 46.31. The current ratio is 10% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.69%. The current dividend yield is 2.59% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $46.31. The current dividend yield is 66% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.18%. The current dividend yield is 2.59% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $46.31. The current dividend yield is 58% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 5.13%. The current dividend yield is 2.59% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $46.31. The current dividend yield is 49% below the 5 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem is the stock price has taken off but dividends are flat.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.64. The current P/S Ratio is 4.49 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $2082M, Revenue per Share of $10.32. The current ratio is 23% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The dividend yield testing does not work because dividends are flat and the stock price has taken off. This used to be an income trust and as such had high dividend yields. They have good cash flow, but all other testing is showing the stock price as expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do not think that this stock is selling at a reasonable price. It would appear to be on the expensive side. It is not a dividend growth stock, which are the sort I like. Perhaps they should have cut their dividend when becoming a corporation, they may have been better off. The other thing I do not like is the debt level. Personally, I would look for another utility stock to buy rather than this one.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (1), No Opinion (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $45.00. This implies a total loss of 0.24% with a capital loss of 2.83% and dividends of 2.59%.

Analysts like this stock on Stock Chase and one mentions the good cash flow. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool likes this company because of the steady dividend. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives the company two stars out of 5 and list 4 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes the high ROC of the company, but feels it has too much debt. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes the TSR and the fact that the company went from EPS losses to positive EPS, but is worried about some of the risk warnings. Chris MacDonald on Bay Street thinks this is a company to watch.

Northland Power Inc is an operator of power producing facilities. These facilities generate electricity from natural gas or use renewable sources, such as wind and solar power. Most of the electricity produced by Northland Power comes from its thermal facilities. Additionally, almost all of Northland Power's power generation takes place in Canada. The company also owns assets in Mexico, the Netherlands, and Germany. Its web site is here Northland Power Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Chesswood Group Ltd (TSX-CHW, OTC-CHWWF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Wild Brain Ltd (TSX-WILD, OTC- WLDBF) ... learn more on Wednesday, December 02, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks December 2020.... learn more on December 01, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Chesswood Group Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. The price seems reasonable if not cheap. Analysts do not expect much in the near term. It may again become a dividend growth stock. It is currently hard times for some stocks. However, they have restarted the dividend, all be it at a lower level, but this is a positive development. See my spreadsheet on Chesswood Group Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Chesswood Group Ltd (TSX-CHW, OTC-CHWWF). A reader wrote me in 2012 that he was researching and found a company that he hoped I could give him a brief outlook on. He said that the company is Chesswood Group and they are basically a financial leasing company. From 2009 to 2012 they increased their dividends from 2.5 cents to 5.5 cents per month. This is a 120% increase.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they suspended their dividend this year. Usually, when I company does that is because they expect bad times coming or at least uncertain times. Analysts certainly do not expect them to do well this year, but do expect better times starting in 2021. However, the company has restarted dividends this year, but at a lower level. Management obviously feels they can handle the dividends at the new lower level. This is a positive development.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth currently non-existent, but dividend restarted. This company cancelled the dividends partway through this year then restarted it at a lower level. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.82%. The dividend yields have been high (7% to 8/%) with the 5, 10 and historical dividend yields at 7.52%, 7.58% and 8.12%. This company used to be an income trust and changed to a corporation in 2011. This is why dividend yields were high, especially in the past.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) were fine in the past and perhaps they will still be fine in the future. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was 118% with 5 year coverage at 69%. The company is not expected to have positive earnings this year, but 5 year coverage is expected at 83%. Analysts do not expect the company to cover the dividend with EPS in the near future. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 14% with 5 year coverage at 16%. The DPR for CFPS for this year is just 4% with 5 year coverage at 13%.

Debt Ratios are fine for a financial. Because this company is in finance, I look at Debt/Covering Assets Ratio which is 0.87 and fine. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 2.56 for 2019. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.20. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 5.92 and 4.92 respectively for 2019.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 13 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	1.49%	4.53%	-3.54%	8.07%
2009	10	9.96%	21.53%	9.24%	12.29%
2006	13	0.00%	11.30%	2.60%	8.70%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.43, 9.36 and 10.55. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.15, 9.72 and 11.65. The historical ratios are 7.74, 9.38 and 11.60. The current P/E Ratio is negative based on a stock price of $8.50 and EPS loss of $0.44.

The P/E Ratio for 2021 is not much help either. That P/E Ratio is 50.00. This is because the expected EPS for 2021 is just $0.17 which is 76% below the EPS for 2019.

My best guess for a current Graham Price is $5.59 The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.67, 0.79 and 0.92. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.52 based on a stock price of $8.50. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive

If we use last year’s Graham Price of $11.86, the current P/GP Ratio would be 0.72 based on a stock price of $8.50. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.32. The current P/B Ratio is ratio is 1.04 based on a Book Value of $133M, Book Value per Share of $8.18 and a stock price of $8.50. The current ratio is 21% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.91. The current P/CF Ratio is 3.50 based on last 12 month Cash Flow of $39.6M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.43 and a stock price of $8.50. The current ratio is 20% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem is that there are lots of P/CF Ratio that are negative, so the 10 year median ratio is very low.

If we look at Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio for Cash Flow less Working Capital, I get a 10 year 2.63. The current P/CF (less WC) Ratio is 1.23 based on a Cash Flow of $112M, Cash Flow per Share of $6.90 and a stock price of $8.50. The current ratio is 53% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.12%. The current dividend yield is 2.82% based on dividends of $0.24 and a stock price of $8.50. The current dividend yield is 65% below the 10 historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem is that dividends have been cut by over 70% recently.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 7.68%. The current dividend yield is 2.82% based on dividends of $0.24 and a stock price of $8.50. The current dividend yield is 63% below the 10 historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem is that dividends have been cut by over 70% recently.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.44. The current P/S Ratio is 1.19 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $116M, Revenue per Share 7.12 and a stock price of $8.50. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable if not cheap. I cannot use the dividend yield tests because of recent dividend tests. The P/S Ratio testing says that the stock is reasonable and below the median. A problem being is that Revenue is expected to decline this year and next. The P/B Ratio testing says that the stock is cheap and there is no problem with this testing. The P/CF Ratio (less WC) may be more valid and this shows the stock price as relatively cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price seems reasonable. Until recently, this company was making money for its shareholders. It is a small cap. It is also rather risky at present. The stock price is down just 17% this year. This is not bad considering how other companies have fared.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find a Buy (1) recommendation. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $8.25. This implies a total loss of 0.12% with a capital loss of 2.94% and dividends of 2.82%.

The last entries were in 2019 on Stock Chase so analysts have lost interest in this stock. Jason Hoang on Motley Fool says this company is cheap and a good long term bet. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street has some red flags and two stars out of 5. A writer on Simply Wall Street has concerns about this stock. The company announces third quarter results on Seeking Alpha and restarts dividends.

Chesswood Group Ltd is a Canada based company focused on commercial equipment finance for small and medium-sized businesses. The company's operations consist of segments of Equipment Financing-US; and Equipment Financing-Canada. Its web site is here Chesswood Group Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Quarterhill Inc (TSX-QTRH, NASDAQ-QTRH) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Northland Power Inc (TSX-NPI, OTC-NPIFF) ... learn more on Monday, November 30, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Quarterhill Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. The stock price is probably reasonable. It would be risky. They seem to be reinventing themselves again. Their debt ratios are good, but the DPR could improve and they are not expected to make a profit in 2021. So far shareholders have not done well with this stock. See my spreadsheet on Quarterhill Inc.

I do not own this stock of Quarterhill Inc (TSX-QTRH, OTC-QTRHF). I bought this company in 2000 as WiLan Inc. (TSX-WIN, OTC-WILN. It was an up and coming company in communications. I sold it in 2006 after losing most of my investment. This stock has never recovered from the bubble that occurred in 2000. I lost all hope of ever making any money on this stock. The other thing is that they completely refocused their company to earn money on their patents and became a patent troll which was not the sort of company I like.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it has been reinventing itself again. They had a good year in 2019. Their revenue is increasing and they made a profit. They may again become an interesting company to invest in. A negative might be that EPS is expected to drop, especially by 2021 when they are expected to have an earnings loss. They have dropped their NASDAQ listing and have switched their currency back to CDN$.

The dividend yields are currently low with dividend growth currently non-existent. The current dividend yield is low (under 2%) at 1.85%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4%) at 3.23%, 3.00% and 2.78%. The company had some good dividend increases until 2015. In 2017 the dividends were decrease by 76% and have been flat ever since. Analysts do not expect any change in the near future.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) could be improved. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 43%. The 5 year coverage cannot be calculated due to earning losses. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 14% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 70% with 5 year coverage at 39%. However, sites I looked at did not agree on FCF, but FCF DPR quoted is representative.

Debt Ratios are very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.00 (even though there is some long term debt). The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 3.84 as is the Debt Ratio at 6.72. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.17 and 0.17.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-21.71%	-9.63%	-13.66%	4.03%
2009	10	7.18%	3.26%	-2.63%	5.89%
2004	15		4.67%	0.37%	4.30%
1999	20		-8.04%	-9.82%	1.78%
1998	21		3.44%	0.51%	2.92%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-23.46%	-12.14%	-15.74%	3.60%
2009	10	4.92%	-1.20%	-6.40%	5.20%
2004	15		4.82%	0.11%	4.71%
2001	18		-0.84%	-3.86%	3.03%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.74, 19.93 and 25.77. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.96, 16.59 and 21.06. The Corresponding historical ratios are all negative and are of not help. The current P/E Ratio is 18.78 based on a stock price of $2.70 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $0.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $2.84. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.68, 1.06 and 1.45. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.95 based on a stock price of $2.70. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.34. The current P/B Ratio is 1.08 based on a Book Value of $297M, Book Value per Share of $2.50 and a stock price of $2.70. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.99. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.08 based on CFPS for last 12 months of $0.30, Cash Flow of $35M and a stock price of $2.70. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.78%. The current dividend yield is 1.85% based on dividends of $0.05 and a stock price of $2.70. The current dividend yield is 33% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 30%. The current dividend yield is 1.85% based on dividends of $0.05 and a stock price of $2.70. The current dividend yield is 38% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.21. The current P/S Ratio is 1.83 based on a stock price of $2.70, Revenue estimate of $175M ($134M US$) and Revenue per Share of $1.29. The current ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests are showing the stock price as expensive. However, dividends were cut by over 75% in 2017 and have been flat ever since. Also, the stock price has been rising is up by 62% this year. The P/S Ratio is a good test and it show that the stock price is relatively cheap. Most of the other tests are showing the stock price as reasonable.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company has reinvented itself a number of times. Analysts expect that this company will not do as well over the next couple of years as it did in 2019. That is hard to say. Certainly, the dividend has been cut and the stock price is down over the past 5 years and 10 years. So, this would be a risky investment.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (1) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price is $3.02 ($2.35 US$). This implies a total return of 15.62% with 13.77% from capital gains and 1.85% from dividends based on a stock price of $2.70.

The most recent analyst’s reports are positive on Stock Chase. Stephanie Bedard-Chateauneuf on Motley Fool talk about this being a good tech stock for your TFSA. A writer on Simply Wall Street talk about institutional ownership in this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks last year about this company’s stock rising in 2019. It has also risen in 2020, but not enough to give it positive TSR over the past 5 years.. A recent article on Yahoo Finance talk about this company acquiring IBM Patents .

Quarterhill Inc is a growth-oriented company in the Intellectual Property and Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) industries. Its goal is to pursue an investment strategy that capitalizes on attractive market trends in both ITS and its adjacent markets. Its web site is here Quarterhill Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Finning International Inc (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Chesswood Group Ltd (TSX-CHW, OTC-CHWWF) ... learn more on Friday, November 27, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Best Canadian Stocks.... learn more on Thursday, November 21, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.