Cenovus Energy Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Resource Sector Stock. The stock price is relatively cheap. It could be a buy for a short term hold, but it is risky. This company paid dividends in the past and it will probably pay dividends again at some point in the future. Debt Ratios are currently fine. See my spreadsheet on Cenovus Energy Inc.

I do not own this stock of Cenovus Energy Inc (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE). I had held this stock previously as Alberta Energy Company from April 2000 until August 2002. This is another stock that was talked about at the 2010 Money Show in Toronto. There were those who liked oil companies and they mentioned both Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU) and Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE). This company was split off from EnCana (TSX-ECA) in 2009. My spreadsheet reflects this split. I was also following Alberta Energy Co. (TSX-AEC) into EnCana.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there is a lot of red ink on my spreadsheet, but then we are dealing with an energy company. Dividends have been suspended and analyst do not expect this company will make any money over the short term. For example, analysts think that over the next 3 year this company will have negative EPS, but positive cash flow. Of course, the cash flow is expected to drop in 2020. Also, this stock has gone up by almost 20% today, Monday, November 9, 2020 from $4.67 to $5.56.

The dividends were suspended in 2020. When it did pay dividends, the dividend yield was mostly low (under2%). The historical median dividend yield is 1.58%. The 10 year median dividend yield was higher within the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.59%. Over the past 27 years that I have dividend information, the dividends went up 11 times and down 5 years and remain the same for the rest of the years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) have generally been fine over the long term. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 12% with 5 year coverage at 60%. Note that EPS has tended to be volatile. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 75 with 5 year coverage at 16%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 12% with 5 year coverage at 37%. The dividends have gone up, down and remained flat at different times. Dividend coverage has varied over time also.

Debt Ratios are mostly good but have deteriorated this year. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.41. However, because of the steep fall in the stock price, the current ratio is 1.14. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.30 and if you added in cash flow after dividends it is 2.50. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 2.16. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are 1.86 and 0.86.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-27.55%	-9.60%	-11.25%	1.65%
2009	10	-12.42%	-3.08%	-6.26%	3.19%
2004	15	4.06%	2.40%	-1.52%	3.91%
1999	20	6.02%	7.25%	2.92%	4.33%
1994	25	4.79%	10.95%	6.18%	4.77%
1992	27	4.95%	10.55%	6.08%	4.46%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 2.95. 4.83 and 6.71. These are quite low due to some years of negative ratios. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.73, 19.82 and 22.92. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.93, 15.59 and 18.25. The current P/E Ratio is negative as is the P/E Ratio for the next two years. So, this test cannot be done.

I estimate a Graham Price of $23.56. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.06, 1.38 and 1.64. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.24 based on a stock price of $5.56. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.70. The current P/B Ratio is 0.40 based on a Book Value of $17,032M, Book Value per Share of $13.86 and a stock price of $5.56. The current ratio is 76% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.19. The current P/CF Ratio is 37.07 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 of $0.15, Cash Flow of $1,909M and a stock price of $5.56. The current ratio is 415% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, analysts expect the cash flow to crash by around 94% this year. If we look at the Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021, it is $1.84, the Cash Flow would be $2,041 and with a stock price of $5.56, we get a P/B Ratio of 4.48. This ratio is 38% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I cannot do any median dividend yield testing because the dividends have been suspended.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.27. The current P/S Ratio is 0.49 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $13,987M, Revenue per Share of $11.38 and a stock price of $5.56. The current ratio is 62% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The P/S Ratio test show that the stock price is relatively cheap. The dividends are suspended so I cannot do any stock price testing using dividend data. The P/B Ratio test is a good one and it say the stock price is relatively cheap. There are some problems with some tests as noted above.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Personally, I do not invest much in resources even though they are a large part of the Canadian stock market. I have around 1% in resource stocks. I do follow a number because they are a large part of the Canadian economy. I do not think any resource stock is a buy and hold, but you can make money on them in the short term if you buy them at low prices, at their cycle lows and sell when they are relatively high.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (6), Hold (7), Underperform (1), and Sell (2). These recommendations are all over the place. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $7.22. This implies a total return of 29.86% coming all from capital gains.

One analyst on Stock Chase says you might want to consider pipelines as producers have a hard time getting their product out of Canada. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool talks about this stock dropping after its third quarter as it missed analysts’ estimates.. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about who owns shares in this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the company's debt level put the company at risk. Michael Fitzsimmons on Seeking Alpha talks about Cenovus taking over Husky.

Cenovus Energy is an integrated oil company, focused on creating value through the development of its oil sands assets. The company also engages in production of conventional crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in Alberta, Canada, with refining operations in the U.S. Its web site is here Cenovus Energy Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) ... learn more on Wednesday, November 11, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about an Enbridge Inc review.... learn more on Tuesday, November 10, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Keyera Corp

Today I bought 100 shares of Enbridge Inc. All pipeline utility stocks are down and this is one I already won. I had enough cash from dividends in my trading account after taking out needed money for spending.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price would seem to be relatively cheap. They do not have their dividend Payout Ratios under control. The Debt Ratio could be improved. See my spreadsheet on Keyera Corp.

I do not own this stock of Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. The title of the article in Investor’s Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. Jennifer is now a Portfolio Manager for Manulife Asset Management Limited.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that stock has fallen some 44% this year so far. It started out as an income trust where a company can pay out more in dividend than the EPS. However, becoming a corporation, they need to get the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS under control and they have not done this. Analyst expect them to increase the dividend in the short term, but still not get the DPR or EPS under control.

The dividend yields are currently high with dividend growth moderate, but falling into low growth. The current dividend is high (7% and above) at 10.15%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.22% and 4.37%. The historical median dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.41%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 89% with 5 year coverage at 103%. Analyst expect this ratio to be over 100% over the next couple of year. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 53% with 5 year coverage at 51%. This is too high also. I prefer the DPR for CFPS to be 40% or less. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is negative as I the 5 year coverage. The expect DPR for FCF for 2020 is expected to be around 177% and this is too high.

Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.34 an is at a good level. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is low at 0.80. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is just 1.40. The company has a history of low Liquidity Ratios with 5 year median at 1.00 and adding in Cash flow after dividends at 1.40. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.46 and 1.46.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	8.00%	0.85%	-3.44%	4.29%
2009	10	7.41%	17.53%	10.77%	6.77%
2004	15	8.45%	18.71%	10.91%	7.80%
2002	17	12.68%	20.31%	11.94%	8.37%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.26, 25.42 and 27.58. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 22.41, 25.70 and 28.77. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.04, 22.18 and 26.32. The current P/E Ratio is 17.84 based on a stock price of $18.91 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $1.06. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $18.12. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.77, 2.11 and 2.47. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.04 based on a stock price of $18.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.86. The current P/B Ratio is 1.37 based on a stock price of $18.91, Book Value of $6,044M and Book Value per Share of $13.77. The current ratio is 64% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 14.04. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.99 based on a stock price of $18.91, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 of $3.79 and Cash Flow of $858M. The current cash flow ratio is 64% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.41%. The current dividend yield is 10.15% based on dividends of $1.92 and a stock price of $18.91. The current dividend yield is 88% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.37%. The current dividend yield is 10.15% based on dividends of $1.92 and a stock price of $18.91. The current dividend yield is 133% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.68. The current P/S Ratio is 1.25 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $3343M, Revenue per Share of $15.13 and a stock price of $18.91. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests are showing the stock price as relatively cheap and this is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Since this stock used to be an income trust, it had relatively high yields before becoming a corporation in 2010, so the 10 year median yield test is the usual one to refer to in such cases. All the other stock price tests are showing the stock price as relatively cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock is selling at a reasonable price, in fact the price seems to be rather cheap. All the pipeline stocks have fallen a lot and probably too much considering the risk involved. It is hard to know how long the transition to renewables will take, but usually such transitions take a long time.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (11) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $26.74. This implies a total return of 51.56% with 41.41% from capital gains and 10.15% from dividends.

Most of the analysts like this stock on Stock Chase. Kay Ng on Motley Fool says it has a high dividend and upside potential. A writer on Simply Wall Street is worried about dividend coverage and so am I. He also says that dividends have been cut during the past 10 years and this is not true. However, they are paid in CDN$ and this is a US site. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the company’s intrinsic value is $29.75 CDN$ and so this stock is sell below the intrinsic value. This article on Kalkine Media talks about 3 energy dividend stock, one of which is Keyera Corp.

Keyera operates as a midstream energy business in western Canada. Its primary operations consist of gathering, processing, and fractionation of natural gas in western Canada; storage and transportation of crude oil and natural gas byproducts; and marketing of natural gas liquids. Its web site is here Keyera Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Pivot Technology Solutions (TSX-PTG, OTC- PVVTF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Cenovus Energy Inc (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE) ... learn more on Monday, November 9, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Pivot Technology Solutions

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. The current stock price may be relatively expensive., but this is a tech stock and tech stock can often and for long periods be overpriced. It has had a rocky start and they do need to improve them debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Pivot Technology Solutions.

I do not own this stock of Pivot Technology Solutions (TSX-PTG, OTC-PVVTF). In a September 2020 Money Letter article, Margaret Samuel of Toronto-based Enriched Investing talks about 4 dividend paying tech stocks to buy. This is a stock I have not heard of before, so I decided to take a look at it. The article is here.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company had a rough start. It only went public in 2011, but it has had two stock consolidations. It is a dividend paying stock and started dividends half way through 2015. However, it seems to have only turn profitable in 2019, but analysts think that over the next couple of years, it will have a profit.

There was some insider buying during the past year. The purchase price seems to be around $1.55 and $1.75 for insider buying. However, this buying happens some months ago.

The dividend yields are good with not much in dividend growth. The current yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.18%. Dividends have only been paid for 4 years, so the 4 year median dividend yield is high (7% or higher) at 8.65%. They did an increase in dividends from $0.03 to $0.04 (33%) after paying the first dividend in 2015. However, dividends have not changed since. Analysts do not expect an increase in the near future.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) will probably improve. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 46% with 5 year coverage at 1750%. They haven’t often made a profit, although analyst expect that to change. The DPR for CFPS is 70% with 5 year coverage at 50%. I cannot calculate the DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 because the FCF is negative. The 5 year coverage is 15%.

Debt Ratios need improving. They have no long term debt, so the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.00. The Liquidity Ratio has never been good and for 2019 it is 0.85. Add in Cash Flow after dividends and it is lower at 0.83, then add in current portion of the long term debt it is 0.97. This means that the current assets cannot cover the current debt. The Debt Ratio is also low at 1.04. I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 9 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	7.46%	33.46%	19.40%	14.06%
2010	9		-14.10%	-16.80%	2.70%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative. The corresponding 8 year ratios are negative. The corresponding historical ratios are negative. The current P/E Ratio is 21.58 based on a stock price of $2.59 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $0.12. This testing cannot be done with negative P/E Ratios. However, a P/E Ratio is 21.58 is rather on the high side.

I estimate a Graham Price of $1.00. The 8 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.01, 1.71 and 2.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.58 based on a stock price of $2.59. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an 8 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.86. The current P/B Ratio is 6.96 based on a Book Value of $14,213M, Book Value per Share of $0.37 and a stock price of $2.59. The current P/B Ratio is 143% above the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an 8 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 1.41. The current P/CF Ratio is negative based on negative Cash Flow for last 12 months of $16.8M, negative Cash Flow per Share of $0.44, and a stock price of $2.59. This test cannot be done due to negative cash flow.

If we look at the 8 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio excluding working capital, the 8 year median P/CF per Share Ratio is 5.54. The current P/C Ratio is 7.48 based on Cash Flow for last 12 months of $13.2M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.35 and a stock price of $2.59. The current P/CF Ratio is 35% above the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical (and 8 year) median dividend yield of 8.65%. The current dividend yield is 6.18% based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $2.59. The current yield is 29% below the 8 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 8 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.04. The current P/S Ratio is 0.09 based on a stock price of $2.59, Revenue estimate for 2020 of $1,106M and Revenue per Share of $28.94. The current ratio is 111% above the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The dividend yield shows this result and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Also, the stock price testing I can do shows that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It would seem that the current stock price is relatively expensive. However, the trouble with small tech companies is that they can be overpriced for long periods of time. They are generally not a buy and hold forever because of this, but on the other hand they may never be priced at a current reasonable price. You can overpay for tech stocks and still make money, but you have to keep a close eye on them.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find that both WSJ and Yahoo Finance show a Buy (1). The target price is 1.82. This implies a total earnings loss of 23.55% with a capital loss of $29.73 and dividends of 6.18%.

There are no recent reviews of this stock on Stock Chase. With the entries there, opinions are mixed. A writer on Simply Wall Street last year talks about insider buying. There is an interesting note on Reddit about Motley Fool’s recommendations, including this company. The executive overview on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and lists a number of risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street gives a good overview of this stock.

Pivot Technology Solutions Inc offers IT solutions to businesses, government, education, and healthcare organizations. It operates through the following segments: ACS, ARC, ProSys, Sigma, TeraMach, Shared services. Its web site is here Pivot Technology Solutions.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Dollarama Inc (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF) ... learn more on November 06, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy November 2020.... learn more on Thursday, November 05, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures

Dollarama Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Well it is sort of a dividend growth stock. The dividend yield is extremely low. The dividend growth is ok. I do not buy dividend stocks when the dividends are below 1% and I do not buy stocks with a negative book value. It has a high debt load. It would not be my sort of stock. It is obvious that other feel differently about this company. See my spreadsheet on Dollarama Inc.

I do not own this stock of Dollarama Inc (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF). I belong to an investment club and this was a stock I volunteered to look at. I had, of course, heard of this stock before and people have mentioned that it is doing very well for shareholders.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this with this year’s reporting, the book value is positive. I personally do not like to have stocks with a negative book value. The Financial year ends at February 1 each year. So, I am looking the financials for February 1, 2020.

The dividend yields are low and dividend growth was moderate but is now stalled. The current dividend yield is low (less than 2%) at just 0.38. The 5 and 8 year dividend yields are also low at 0.41% and 0.45%. This historical would be the same as the 8 year median yields because dividends have only been paid for 8 years. The dividend growth has been moderate (8% to 14% ranges) over the past 8 years with dividends grow at 11.24% per year over the past 5 years. Dividends were not increased this year and expected increase in 2022 is 7.95%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are very good. The DPR for EPS for 2020 are low at 10% with 5 year coverage at 12%. The DPR or CFPS for 2020 is 7% with 5 year coverage at 9%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 9% with 5 year coverage at 12%.

Debt Ratios need much improvement. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap ratio for 2020 is 0.09 and is low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is very low at 0.70. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is 1.32 and I would prefer it to be 1.50. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 0.98. This means that assets cannot cover liabilities. However, for the first time in 4 years, the Debt Ratio for the second quarter is positive at 1.03. This is very low and I prefer this to be 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are negative. These ratios for 2021 are extremely high at 33.88 and 32.88. I prefer them to be under 3.00 and under 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 11 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	11.24%	18.25%	17.65%	0.60%
2009	10	14.40%	29.00%	28.18%	0.81%
2008	11		27.94%	27.23%	0.71%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.43, 25.31 and 31.11. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.55, 23.36 and 27.87. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.51, 21.09 and 27.61. The current P/E Ratio is 26.83 based on a stock price of $45.88 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $1.71. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $3.77. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 3.10, 3.91 and 4.72. The current P/GP Ratio is 12.17 based on a stock price of $45.88. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Since the formula for the Graham Price takes into consideration the book value, this is not a surprising result. All the Graham Price Ratios on this stock are very high.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.66. The current P/B Ratio is 124.20 based on a Book Value of $114.6M, Book Value per Share of $0.37 and a stock price of $45.88. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Since, generally speaking, the P/B Ratio is a very good test because it does not use estimate, this is not a surprising result because for the last few years, the book value has been negative. This is never what I like to see.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 18.47. The current P/B ratio is 18.50 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $2.48, Cash Flow of $769M and a stock price of $45.88. The current ratio is 0.2% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.45%. The current dividend yield is $0.38% based on dividends of $0.18 and a stock price of $45.88. The current dividend is 15% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above median. Since this only had dividends for 8 years, the 8 year median dividend yield is the same as the historical median dividend yield.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.12. The current P/S Ratio is 3.59 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $3,962M, Revenue per Share of $12.77 and a stock price of $45.88. The current ratio is 15% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price might be reasonable but it is on the high side. The dividend yield test is showing the stock price is relatively reasonable but above median and this is confirmed by the P/S Ratio.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price might be reasonable. There are two things I do not like about this stock and they are both reasons why I would not consider buying at this point. The first is the high indebted as shown by the series of negative book values. Lot of companies have been caught by high debt at the wrong time (wrong times tend to be recessionary periods).

The other thing is I do not buy dividend stocks with dividends less than 1%. It takes too long to get to a decent return on your original purchase price. This company has a yield of only 0.69% after 5 years. However, the yield of 4.26% after 10 is not that bad. The thing is that the stock price has moved up sharply. The question is, will the big increase in stock price continue.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (6) and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $55.00. This implies a total return of 20.26%, with 19.88% from capital gains and 0.38% from dividends.

The analysts on Stock Chase like this company and only one mentions the high debt. Vineet Kulkarni Motley Fool says this company is an attractive investment for a TFSA due to stable cash flow and dividends. It is interesting that Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5, but Simply Wall Street gives it two stars out of five. A writer on Simply Wall Street says this stock has an intrinsic value of $54.00. A writer on Simply Wall Street says this company’s ROCE is high. Team Kalkine on Kalkine Media thinks this stock is recession proof.

Dollarama Inc is a Canada-based company principally engaged in operating discount retail stores. The company provides a broad range of everyday consumer products, general merchandise, and seasonal items, with merchandise at low fixed price points. Its web site is here Dollarama Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Ovintiv Inc (TSX-OVV, NYSE-OVV) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Pivot Technology Solutions (TSX-PTG, OTC- PVVTF) ... learn more on November 04, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks November 2020.... learn more on November 03, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Ovintiv Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Resource. The stock price is relatively cheap, however it would be a high risk buy. It is a dividend paying stock, but has decreased dividends as much as they have increased them, so I am not calling it a dividend growth stock. This year it did a 5 to 1 consolidation and consolidations are never good news. DPRs are erratic and debt ratios are not great. See my spreadsheet on Ovintiv Inc.

I do not own this stock of Ovintiv Inc (TSX-OVV, NYSE-OVV), but I used to. I had held this stock previously as Alberta Energy Company from April 2000 until August 2002 and made some 18% total returns per year. I had EnCana Corp from February 2006 to November 2009 and made a 9.54% per year total return. I sold this stock in 2009 because I only had 100 shares and the stock was going to split into two companies. I would have ended up with small investment in two companies. Name was changed to Ovintiv this year.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the big news is that the stock is doing a 5 to 1 stock consolidation. Also, analysts expect that the company will have a big loss in 2020 of $3,992M or $15.30 EPS loss. However, the company is expected to have very good cash flow. The reason for the loss is showing up in the quarterly statements. The company is taking an impairment loss and operations expenses has climbed about 125%. There was a 1 to 5 consolidation of the stock in January 2020.

The dividend yield is currently moderate with dividend growth variable. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.07%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 0.76%, 1.57% and 1.96%. Dividends have gone up and down and remained flat at different times. The last dividend increase was in 2019 and it was for 25%. There has been no increase in 2020. Dividends have not grown over the past 15 years because of the 79% decrease in 2016.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are erratic. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 42%. The 5 year coverage cannot be calculated because of earnings losses. Analysts expect an earning loss in 2020, but expect a DPR for EPS of 89% in 2021. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 3% with 5 year coverage at 6%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 35% with 5 year coverage non-calculable because of negative FCF.

Debt Ratios could improve. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 1.14 and is currently at 2.95. The stock price has fallen by 57% so far this year. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.75, but if you add in cash flow after dividends it is 1.92. The 5 year median Liquidity Ratio is 1.23. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.86. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are fine at 2.16 and 1.16.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-21.40%	-16.58%	-17.77%	1.19%
2009	10	-19.38%	-13.76%	-15.84%	2.08%
2004	15	-1.60%	-2.81%	-6.85%	4.04%
1999	20	1.67%	3.80%	-1.29%	5.08%
1994	25	1.33%	8.61%	2.69%	5.92%
1992	27	1.73%	8.45%	2.85%	5.60%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-23.15%	-18.42%	-19.50%	2.88%
2009	10	-21.07%	-15.47%	-17.57%	2.15%
2004	15	-2.10%	-8.27%	-11.34%	2.53%
2002	18	2.31%	-0.79%	-5.30%	2.21%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.56, 8.39 and 12.22. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.30, 10.92 and 14.53. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.19, 8.56 and 10.45. The current P/E Ratio is a negative 0.60 based on a stock price of $12.12 and EPS estimate for 2020 of an EPS loss of $20.13 ($15.30 loss US$). So, this testing cannot be done. This is in CDN$.

The P/E Ratio for 2021 is 21.93 based on a stock price of $12.12 and 2021 EPS estimate of $0.53 ($0.42 US$). The P/E Ratio for 2022 is 15.35 based on 2020 EPS estimate of $0.79 ($0.60 US$). This This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. This testing is not working well because of the expected drop in EPS over the next couple of years. This is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $19.23. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.80, 1.04 and 1.44. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $12.12. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 0.40 based on a Book Value of $5,873M, Book Value per Share of $22.61 and a stock price of $9.07. The current ratio is 70% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.27. The current P/CF Ratio is 1.37 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 of $6.61, Cash Flow of $1,717M and a stock price of $9.07. The current ratio is 68% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.57%. The current dividend yield is 4.14% based on Dividends of $0.38 and a stock price of $9.07. The current dividend yield is 163% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.96%. The current dividend yield is 4.14% based on Dividends of $0.38 and a stock price of $9.07. The current dividend yield is 111% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.31. The current P/S Ratio is 0.38 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $6.140M, Revenue per Share of $23.63 and a stock price of $9.07. The current ratio is 83% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests are showing the stock price as cheap even after big drops in the dividends. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the other tests are showing the stock price as cheap except for the P/E Ratio tests. The problem with the P/E Ratio tests is the drop in EPS.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The company’s stock price is certainly reasonable. It is also quite cheap. However, this is a very risky stock because there are so many unknowns about what will happen in the oil and gas industry in the near future and over the longer term. Certainly, we will get off oil and gas because of pollution, but what that time table is, is anyone guess.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (2), Hold (18), Underperform (1) and Sell (2). The consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price target consensus is $15.735 ($11.97 US$). This implies a total return of 434.05% with 29.97% from capital gains and $4.07% from dividends.

All the latest entries on Stock Chase are negative. One analyst says that energy is not an investable asset and I agree. Travis Hoium on Motley Fool talks about oil stocks, including Ovintiv. David Jagielski on Motley Fool thinks the worse might be over for this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street says there are better dividend stock to buy than Ovintiv. Comments on Reddit about this stock moving to NASDAQ..

Ovintiv is an independent oil and gas producer with key assets in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Montney, and Duvernay areas. Its web site is here Ovintiv Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was CCL Industries Inc (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Dollarama Inc (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF) ... learn more on Monday, November 2, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

CCL Industries Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Materials. The stock price seems reasonable at the present time. The dividend yield is low a just 1.38%. The DPRs are good as is the debt ratios. Dividend growth is expected to slow. See my spreadsheet on CCL Industries Inc.

I do not own this stock of CCL Industries Inc (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF). In 2009 I read a favorable report on this stock of which I had also heard before. This is also a dividend paying stock and in 2009 it was on Dividend Achievers list.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that analysts expect declining Revenue and EPS for 2020. However, things are expected to pick up again in 2021. They also expect high dividend increases than for 2020, but not as high as in the past. The dividend growth in 2020 was 5.9% and dividend growth for 2021 and 2022 is expected to be 12.5% and 13.4%, respectively. The 5 year dividend growth has been at 25.32% per year over the past 5 years.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (under 2%) at 1.38%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also low at 0.89% and 1.12%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.08%. The dividend yields were in the 1% to 2% ranges mostly until 2013 when some started to drop below 1%. The dividend growth is currently good (14% and above) with the growth at 25.32% per year over the past 5 years. However, the most recent increase in 2020 was for just 5.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was 26% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 11% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 28% with 5 year coverage at 22%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is good at 0.23. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is good at 1.83. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is also good at 1.70. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are fine at 2.43 and 1.43 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	25.32%	18.37%	17.05%	1.32%
2009	10	18.94%	27.36%	25.63%	1.73%
2004	15	15.53%	21.13%	19.63%	1.49%
1999	20	12.72%	17.88%	16.47%	1.40%
1994	25	10.50%	15.63%	14.26%	1.37%
1989	30	9.02%	13.16%	11.89%	1.26%
1987	32	8.93%	13.42%	11.99%	1.43%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.39, 22.16 and 25.86. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.31, 21.24 and 25.58. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.88, 14.38 and 20.49. The current P/E Ratio 20.38 based on a stock price of $52.18 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $2.56. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $31.43. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.19, 1.66 and 2.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.66 based on a stock price of $52.18. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.26. The current P/B Ratio is 3.04 based on a Book Value of $3,063M, Book Value per Share of $17.15 and a stock price of $52.18. The current ratio is 6.8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.79. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.99 based on a stock price of $52.18, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 if $4.75 and Cash Flow of $848M. The current ratio is 1.8% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.08%. The current dividend yield is 1.38% based on a stock price of $52.18 and Dividends of $0.72. The current dividend yield is 34% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.12%. The current dividend yield is 1.38% based on a stock price of $52.18 and Dividends of $0.72. The current dividend yield is 23% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.67. The current P/S Ratio is 1.81, based on Revenue estimate for $5,157M, Revenue per Share of $28.87 and a stock price of $52.18. The current ratio is 8% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price might be reasonable. The testing is giving mixed signals. I like the Dividend Yield test and the P/S Ratio test, but they are showing stock price above and below the median. The P/B Ratio test says that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price seems to be in the reasonable range at this point. This is a dividend growth stock which is what I like. The dividend yield is low, so this might be good for someone building their portfolio.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (7) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $57.89. This implies a total return of 12.32%, with 10.94% from capital gains and 1.38% from dividends.

Analysts have various views on this stock on Stock Chase. Jed Lloren on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a hidden gem. A writer on Simply Wall Street says they are happy with the company’s performance and they like it that the company is heavily reinvesting in the company. A writer on Simply Wall Street points out the lack of increasing EPS recently, but a P/E Ratio higher than the industry average. The Blogger Million dollar Journey has this stock on his list of 2020 Best Canadian Dividend Stocks.

CCL Industries Inc manufactures and sells packaging and packaging-related products. The company operates through various segments which include The CCL segment, which generates the majority of revenue, sells pressure sensitive and extruded film materials used for labels on consumer packaging, healthcare, automotive, and consumer durable products. The majority of revenue comes from North America. Its web site is here CCL Industries Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Brookfield Asset Management Inc (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ovintiv Inc (TSX-OVV, NYSE-OVV) ... learn more on Friday, October 30, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Kirkland Lake.... learn more on Thursday, October 29, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Brookfield Asset Management Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Stock price might be reasonable, but on the high side. Dividend yields are low. DPRs are good. The company is not expected to have a good year in 2020. See my spreadsheet on Brookfield Asset Management Inc.

I do not own this stock of Brookfield Asset Management Inc (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM). I used to own an earlier version of this stock as Hees International, then Edper Group and then EdperBrascan back in 1987 to 1999.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed analysts do not expect this company to have a good year in 2020, but a recovery is expected in 2021. For example, analysts expect EPS to drop by 92% in 2020 to $0.14, but then for the EPS to be much better in 2021 at $1.54. Also, in 2020 there was a 3 to 2 split in shares.

The dividend yields are currently low with dividend growth currently moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.42%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are low at 1.46% and 1.52%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.09%. Before 2009, the dividend yields were in the moderate range. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 8.79% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2020 and it was for 12.5%. Dividends are paid in US$.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. DPR for EPS for 2019 is 24.62% with 5 year coverage at 25%. However, the DPR for 2020 is expected to be 343% before falling back to 31% in 2021. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 9% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 31% with 5 year coverage at 35%.

Debt Ratios are fine. Because this a financial, I look to see if the major debt is covered by assets. The Long Term Debt/Assets Ratio for 2019 is fine at 0.87. The Liquidity Ratio is low 1.11, but generally this is not important to financials. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.56. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio at 2.77 and 1.77 are a bit high but fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	11.27%	15.57%	14.09%	1.48%
2009	10	8.61%	19.72%	17.01%	2.71%
2004	15	7.16%	15.09%	12.52%	2.57%
1999	20	7.56%	20.27%	16.13%	4.15%
1994	25	6.00%	19.19%	14.82%	4.37%
1989	30	5.12%	10.94%	8.89%	2.05%
1987	32	5.77%	12.33%	9.77%	2.57%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	8.79%	12.92%	11.58%	1.34%
2009	10	6.32%	17.35%	14.60%	2.75%
2004	15	6.63%	14.90%	12.08%	2.82%
1999	20	8.24%	22.08%	17.19%	4.89%
1994	25	6.33%	19.74%	15.18%	4.57%
1989	30	4.72%	10.47%	8.48%	1.99%
1987	32	5.77%	12.46%	9.77%	2.69%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.21, 18.65 and 22.97. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.70, 12.90 and 14.86. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.47, 13.67 and 15.44. The current P/E Ratio is 242.01 based on a stock price of $44.52 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $0.18 ($0.14 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This test is done using CDN$.

However, analysts expect the EPS to drop some 92% in 2020. If we use the EPS estimate for 2021 of $2.02 ($1.54 US$) and a current stock price of $44.52, the P/E Ratio is 22.00. If we use the EPS estimate for 2022 of $2.37 ($1.80 US$) we get a P/E Ratio of 18.82. None of these are showing as a reasonable stock price and all are showing the stock price as relatively expensive. This test is done using CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $10.02. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.77, 0.86 and 1.01. The current P/GP Ratio is 4.44 based on a stock price of $44.52. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This test is done using CDN$.

Because the 2020 EPS estimate affects the Graham Price, I will look at the next two years also. The Graham Price for 2021 is $33.25. The P/GP Ratio would be 1.34 based on a stock price of $44.52. The Graham Price for 2022 is $35.94. The P/GP Ratio would be 1.24. None of these are showing as a reasonable stock price and all are showing the stock price as relatively expensive. This test is done using CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.32. The current P/B Ratio is 1.83 based on a Book Value of $27,925M, Book Value per Share of $18.47 and a stock price of $33.90. The current P/B Ratio is 39% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This test is done using US$. You will get a similar answer using CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.29. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.77 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 of $2.88, Cash Flow of $4,353M and a stock price of $33.90. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This test is done using US$. You will get a similar answer using CDN$.

A drop in CFPS is expected in 2020 of 31%. Because of this I will look at estimate for the next two years. The P/CF Ratio for 2021 is 10.69 based on a stock price of $33.90, Cash Flow per Share of $3.17 and Cash Flow of $4,792M. This P/CF Ratio is 4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This test is done using US$. You will get a similar answer using CDN$.

The P/CF Ratio for 2022 is 8.97 based on a stock price of 33.90, Cash Flow per Share of $3.78 and Cash Flow of $5,714M. This P/CF Ratio is 13% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This test is done using US$. You will get a similar answer using CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.43%. The current dividend yield is 1.42% based on dividends of $0.63 and a stock price of $44.52. The current dividend yield is 42% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This test is done using CDN$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.57%. The current dividend yield is 1.42% based on dividends of $0.63 and a stock price of $44.52. The current dividend yield is 10% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This test is done using CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.13. The current P/S Ratio is 0.93 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $55,221M, Revenue per Share of $36.53 and a stock price of $33.90. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This test is done using US$. You will get a similar answer using CDN$.

Results of stock price testing suggest that the stock price might be reasonable. Both the 10 year median dividend yield test and the P/S Ratio tests show this, but the dividend yield is showing the stock price above the median with the P/S Ratio test showing the stock price below the median. There are problems with a number of tests, but the P/B Ratio test. The P/B Ratio test is good and it is showing the stock price as relatively expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price would seem to be reasonable, but it is on the high side. A lot of people like this company and it is a dividend growth company. However, I do worry about the complexity of this company.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy, (4), Buy (6) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $46.98 ($35.75 US$). This implies a total return of $6.93 with 1.42% from dividends and 5.52% from capital gains.

Some analysts like this company and some do not on Stock Chase. Robin Brown on Motley Fool thinks this is a stock to buy and hold forever in your TFSA. The executive overview gives this stock 5 stars out of 5 on Simply Wall Street. American Equity Investment Life Holding Co and Brookfield team up according to a Bloomberg article. The blogger Dividend Earner has reviewed this stock and likes it.

Brookfield Asset Management Inc owns and manages commercial property, power, and infrastructure assets. Located around the world, its assets are concentrated in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Australia. Its web site is here Brookfield Asset Management Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be CCL Industries Inc (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF) ... learn more on Wednesday, October 28, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Magna International.... learn more on Tuesday, October 27, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Molson Coors Canada

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Consumer. The stock price is cheap. The company has suspended dividends. See my spreadsheet on Molson Coors Canada.

I do not own this stock of Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP). In 2008 I did a spreadsheet on this stock as it has recently been recommended and generally, beer companies make good money. Labatt’s was one of the original companies that I purchased and I did very well with it before it was bought out.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock hit a peak in 2016 and has been going down ever since. The company suspended the dividend this year of 2020. However, analysts expect that the dividend will be reinstated in 2021.

The dividend yields have been moderate to low but dividends are currently suspended, although analysts expect that they will reinstated next year. The dividend yield was moderate (2% to 4%) at 3.64% before the dividend was suspended. The 5, and 10 median dividend yields are moderate at 2.05% and 2.07%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.88%. After dividends being flat for a few years, the company had raised the dividends by 39% in early 2020 before suspending the dividends. Analysts expect dividends to come in at a lower level when they are reinstated.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) were fine, but dividends are suspended. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was 176% with 5 year coverage at 34%. 2019 was not a good year for the company. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 20% with 5 year coverage also at 20%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 was 33% with 5 year coverage at 32%.

Debt Ratios could be improved, especially, the Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 was 0.67. The current ratio is 1.01. This is because of a drop in the stock price. The stock has dropped 35% this year, but it has been dropping since 2016. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.59. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is just 0.98. If you add back in the current portion of the long term debt you get to 1.22. This ratio is not good. The Debt Ratio at 1.90 is good, however. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.15 and 1.13.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2019 and symbol TPX.B. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	8.20%	-0.92%	-3.72%	2.81%
2009	10	10.22%	7.39%	4.34%	3.05%
2004	15	8.23%	6.60%	3.19%	3.41%
1999	20	8.48%	13.18%	8.28%	4.90%
1996	23	6.73%	10.29%	6.52%	3.77%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2019 in US$ and symbol TAP. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	5.78%	-3.66%	-6.27%	2.61%
2009	10	7.86%	4.91%	1.90%	3.01%
2004	15	10.99%	4.98%	2.37%	2.61%
1999	20	9.44%	6.13%	3.69%	2.44%
1994	25	8.59%	11.10%	7.73%	3.37%
1990	29	7.36%	8.52%	5.89%	2.63%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.01, 14.12 and 16.61. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.30, 14.76 and 17.41. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.92, 14.18 and 16.64. The current P/E Ratio is 13.55 based on a stock price of $47.02 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $3.47 ($2.63 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $77.01. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 0.92 and 1.05. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.61 based on a stock price of $47.02. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.13. The current P/B Ratio is 0.61 based on a Book Value of $13,003M, Book Value per Share of $57.59 and a stock price of $35.40. The current ratio is 56% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result using CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.68. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.89 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 of $3.98, Cash Flow of 898.7M and a stock price of $35.40. The current ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in US$. You will get a similar result using CDN$.

Problem with the P/CF Ratio test is that analysts expect a big drop in Cash Flow for 2020 of some 53%. They expect the Cash Flow to recover in 2021. If you use the P/CF Ratio for 2021 of 4.38, the ratio drops by 55%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result using CDN$.

I cannot do an historical median dividend yield test because the dividends have been suspended.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.30. The current P/S Ratio is 0.83 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $9,678M, Revenue per Share of $42.86 and a stock price of $35.40. The current ratio is 64% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result using CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The P/S Ratio test, which is a favourite of mine says the stock price is cheap. The P/B Ratio test is also a good one and it says the stock is cheap. The other tests mostly show the stock price as reasonable and below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is relatively cheap. This company used to be a dividend growth company and it will probably be that again. However, it does have problems with debt and it has had a hard time growing since the 2008 recession from which there been a long slow recovery. A lot of companies are having this problem.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7), Hold (8), Underperform (3) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $58.26 ($44.16 US$). This implies a total return of 23.90% in CDN$ and 24.75 %

There is not many analysts following this stock and the latest entry on Stock Chase is negative. Vishesh Raisinghani on Motley Fool thought last year they it was trading below its book value and so was a bargain. The site Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 stars out of 5 and says a negative is declining earnings. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the company has too much debt.

Molson Coors Canada Inc is a large global brewer that produces and sells beer and other malt beverages. Major brands include Coors Light, Molson Canadian, Staropramen, Carling, Miller Lite, Keystone, Creemore Springs, Cobra and Doom Bar, Blue Moon, and Leinenkugel. Most of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States. Molson's other large markets are Canada, Central and Eastern Europe, and the United Kingdom. Its web site is here Molson Coors Canada.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Pason Systems Inc (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Brookfield Asset Management Inc (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM) ... learn more on Monday, October 26, 2020 around 5 pm.

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