Leon's Furniture Ltd

Yesterday, I bought some Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF) for my TFSA account. I am buying because I wonder if the stock market is going to go lower or not. It does not seem so inclined. This is a high risk stock because I am using my TFSA as a fooling around money account.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is probably reasonable and it might be cheap. There is insider buying and that is a positive. It got to have short term problems with the closing of stores due to Covid Flu. See my spreadsheet on Leon's Furniture Ltd.

I own this stock of Leon's Furniture Ltd (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF). I had some money in 2006 and this stock has been on MPL Communication's Investor Reporter list for some time. It was also on Mike Higgs' Dividend Growth Stock list. I will continue to hold this dividend growth consumer discretionary stock. I think that the company is a good one. You would buy this for diversification.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there and has been a big difference in Basic EPS and Diluted EPS. It would seem that it is mostly to do with Convertible Debentures. It would be nice if they would just give you a chart showing the change in the outstanding shares. They give it in a narrative, but this is hard to understand. Besides that, I looked at the narrative and the change in outstanding shares do not seem to add up.

There was insider buying lately. Buying started below $15.00 a share. Net Insider Buy at 0.08% of market cap for the past year is high. You would expect this NIB to be around 0.01%. I have not done well on this stock. I first bought it in 2006. My total return to the end of February 2020 is 6.16% with 2.96% from capital gains and 3.20% from dividends. It is not just the bear market. When I look at it last year at the end of March, my total return was just 5.26%.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is the highest it has ever been at 4.72%. This is still within the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are lower at 2.60%, 2.65% and 2.07%. As you can see from the chart below, the dividend growth for the last 15 years has been in the low range (under 8%).

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 43% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for CFPS is 25% with 5 year coverage at 35%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 22% with 5 year coverage at 27%. Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 4.62 with 5 year ratio at 3.67. Again, WSJ and Morningstar disagree on what the FCF is and I have gone with Morningstar which I get through a report I get from TD WebBroker.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.04, which is very low and very good. The Liquidity Ratio at 1.22 is normal for this company and low. It is better when you added in cash flow after dividends, which gives a ratio of 1.56 with a 5 year median also of 1.56. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.75 with the 5 year ratio also at 1.75. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2019 is 2.33 and 1.33 respectively with 5 year ratios at 2.24 and 1.24 respectively. These are fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	6.96%	1.43%	-1.41%	2.84%
2009	10	7.18%	8.27%	4.73%	3.54%
2004	15	7.66%	7.71%	4.32%	3.39%
1999	20	9.89%	9.08%	5.47%	3.61%
1994	25	10.61%	11.19%	7.10%	4.09%
1991	28	10.14%	12.13%	8.02%	4.11%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.37, 14.56, and 15.98. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.43, 14.95 and 17.01. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.15, 14.56 and 16.28. The current P/E Ratio is 11.29 based on a stock price of 13.55 and an EPS estimate of $1.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $17.86. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.98, 1.16 and 1.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.76 based on a stock price of $13.55. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.88. The current P/B Ratio is 1.15 based on a stock price of $13.55, Book Value of $912M and a Book Value per Share of $11.81. The current P/B Ratio is 39% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.07%. The current dividend yield is 4.72% based on a stock price of $13.55 and dividends of $0.64. The current yield is 128% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.63%. The current dividend yield is 4.72% based on a stock price of $13.55 and dividends of $0.64. The current yield is 75% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.58. the current P/S Ratio is 0.47 based on a stock price of $13.55, 2020 Revenue estimate of $2,217M, and Revenue per Share of 28.70. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield test puts the stock price as very cheap. However, the P/S Ratio put the stock price as reasonable and below the median. This test is saying maybe the stock is not as cheap as the other test say.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like this company and I will continue to hold it. I must admit my return has not been very good. I like my dividend growth stocks to have a total return of at least 8% per year. I probably paid too much for the stock.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Hold (2) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $16.50. This implies a total return of 26.49% with 21.7 % from capital and 4.72% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. There are few recent entries, but the analysts like this stock. Daniel Da Costa Motley Fool thinks this is current a great buy. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes the dividend coverage for this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes that there is insider buying. The Canadian Press reports on Bloomberg that Leon’s is temporarily laying off half their workers and closing 72 corporate stores due to Covid Flu.

Leon's Furniture Ltd is a Canada-based retailer that operates in two main segments, both involved in the sale of home furnishing, mattresses, appliances, and electronics. Leon's segment includes the 86 physical stores nationwide and the leons.ca website. The Brick, The Brick Mattress, and the Brick Outlet stores, as well as the website thebrick.com. The company also provides aftersales service for appliances through its TransGlobal Services subsidiary. Its web site is here Leon's Furniture Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Barrick Gold Corp (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX) ... learn more on Monday, April 13, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Supremex Inc

Today I bought some shares in Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF). I have been watching this stock. At first it went down, but it has revived from lows of $7.37 in March. It is now $9.62, but I bought this morning at $9.30. I bought rather than wait and have it go higher still. But who knows how this bear market will end? I bought for my LIF account. This should be held in a registered account as its dividend is tax as Interest Income.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Materials. This stock is cheap. It is high risk and a small cap. There is recent buying by the Chairman. See my spreadsheet on Supremex Inc .

I own this stock of Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF). I read about it in Money Sense article of 15 Stocks to help investors ride market swings by Michael Pe of Mar 4, 2018. See the article here . They were an envelope company, but are diversifying into packaging. I investigated this stock for buying for my TFSA. This is my fooling around money account.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there was recent insider buying at $1.86 and then some more at $1.41. It would appear that most of the buying was by the Chairman. So far, I have only lost money on this stock. But I do have hopes that it will ultimately be a winner.

The dividend yields are good to high with dividend growth recently moderate. The current yield is high (7% and above) at 16.99%. The 5, 10 and historical yields are good (5% & 6% ranges) to high (7% and above) at 5.23%, 6.46 and 7.30%. This stock started off as an income trust fund and income trust funds had higher yields that corporations.

Income Trust also can payout more than their earnings, but when they became corporations, they had to get their payout ratios under their earnings. So, it is not surprising that this company, as other income trust did, cut dividends in the past. They started to increase dividends again in 2015. Over the past 5 years the increases were at 9.52% per year. However, starting in 2019, they stopped the increases due to an earning loss in 2018 due to a goodwill impairment write-off. See chart below for the dividend growth figures.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was 103% with 5 year coverage at 75%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 37% with 5 year coverage at 28%. This DPR is expected to decline this year and next year. Earnings are expected to increase and dividends are flat. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 54% with 5 year coverage at 55%. WSJ and Morningstar do not agree on FCF, but their values are close. Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 1.86 and the 5 year ratio is 1.83.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.73. It is much higher now at 1.16 due to stock being down 40% this year. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.97 with 5 year median at 2.03 and this ratio has been generally quite good. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.74 with 5 year median at 2.21. This ratio has also been quite good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are 2.35 and 1.35. The 5 year median ratios are 1.83 and 0.83. This ratio has been good to fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 13 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	9.52%	3.18%	-5.08%	8.26%
2009	10	-8.70%	7.09%	-0.12%	7.21%
2006	13	-10.81%	-2.04%	-9.19%	7.15%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.15, 10.55, 11.62. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.90, 7.82 and 9.73. The corresponding historical ratios are 5.55, 7.82 and 9.73. The current P/E Ratio is 5.40 based on a stock price of $1.53 and 2020 EPS estimate of $0.34. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $4.56. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.52, 0.68 and 0.86. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.34 based on a stock price of $1.53. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.21. The current P/B Ratio is 0.56 based on a Book Value of $76M, Book Value per Share of $2.72 and a stock price of $1.53. The current ratio is some 53% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.30%. The current dividend yield is 16.99% based on a stock price of $1.53 and dividends of $0.26. The current dividend yield is 133% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.46%. The current dividend yield is 16.99% based on a stock price of $1.53 and dividends of $0.26. The current dividend yield is 163% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.49. The current P/S Ratio is 0.20 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $218M and a stock price of $1.53. The current ratio is 60% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively cheap. There is no problems with any of my tests. The dividend yield tests are showing the stock price as cheap and this is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The current price is cheap. This is a high risk stock and a small cap. However, I still like this company. They are moving into packaging and that would appear to be good considering all the online buying that is going and will go on in the future.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find one Buy Recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $2.90. This implies a total return of 106.54%, with 89.54% from capital gains and 16.99% from dividends.

The last entry on Stock Chase was in 2016. It is not well followed by analysts. Kris Knutson on Motley Fool talks about small companies with big yields including this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about this stock being owned 19% by institutions. A writer on Simply Wall Street says TSR is down 46% over 3 years, but up 11% over one year. Note that all of the TSR over the past year is all dividends. An article on Lesprom News says that this company has received certification for Durabox Faciity. Their news release on the Fourth Quarter is here.

Supremex Inc is engaged in manufacturer and marketer of a broad range of custom envelopes and packaging products. The company operates in two business segments that are Manufacturing and Sale of Envelopes, and the manufacturing and sale of paper-based packaging solutions and specialty products. Its web site is here Supremex Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Leon's Furniture Ltd (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF) ... learn more on Friday, April 10, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy April 2020.... learn more on Thursday, April 09, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Toromont Industries Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price is reasonable. It has held up well in this latest bear market. See my spreadsheet on Toromont Industries Ltd.

I own this stock of Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF). This is a dividend growth industrial stock. TD bank see Toromont as a relatively low-risk, high-quality industrial stock. This is one of the stocks I bought after selling Loblaws in 2008. This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list. I bought more in 2008 after selling Onex and AGF Management.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock was down just 15% year to date. I have well with this stock. To the end of February, my total return is 12.42% with 10.60% from capital gains and 1.82% from dividends. I first bought this stock in 2007, and on my original purchase, I am making a yield of 6.17%. This is after just over 12 years.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current yield is still low (under2%) at 1.79%. The 5, 10 and historical median yields are low (under 2%) to moderate (2% to 4% ranges). These yields are 1.68%, 2.08% and 1.84%. Dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges). See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 30% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 19% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 95% with 5 year coverage at 34%. The Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 1.05 with the 5 year ratio at 2.92. The FCF is unusually low in 2019. Also, WSJ and Morningstar do not agree on what the FCF is.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2019 is 0.11 which is low and good. Even the current one is still good at 0.13. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.83 with 5 year median at 2.16. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.83 with 5 year median at 2.08. Both these later ratios are good as they are over 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.20 and 1.20 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	12.39%	21.84%	19.88%	1.96%
2009	10	11.15%	17.18%	15.29%	1.90%
2004	15	13.33%	13.79%	12.12%	1.67%
1999	20	13.29%	16.09%	14.18%	1.92%
1994	25	16.18%	17.37%	15.21%	2.16%
1990	29	14.93%	23.26%	19.30%	3.96%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.25, 18.11 and 21.84. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.46, 17.47 and 20.10. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.91, 15.02 and 18.56. The current P/E Ratio is 17.38 based on a stock price of $60.30 and 2020 EPS estimate of $3.47. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $38.21. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.32, 1.53 and 1.76. The current P/GP ratio is 1.58 based on a stock price of $60.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.27. The current P/B Ratio is 3.22 based on a Book Value of $1534M, Book Value per Share of $18.70 and a stock price of $60.30. The current ratio is 1.5% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.87%. The current dividend yield is 1.79% based on dividends of $1.08 and a stock price of $60.30. The current yield is 2.7% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.08%. The current dividend yield is 1.79% based on dividends of $1.08 and a stock price of $60.30. The current yield is 14% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.31. The current P/S Ratio is 1.35 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $3,655M and a stock price of $60.30. The current ratio is 2.9% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The testing is show that the stock price is reasonable and above or below the median. Also, most of these test shows the stock price very close to the median. This bear market has not made this stock cheap by any means.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do like this company and I will continue to own shares. This bear market has not made this stock cheap. It was relatively cheap between 2008 and 2014 using the dividend yield measure but it has not been cheap recently. The stock price seems close to the median. This is a low dividend but good growth dividend growth stock.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), Outperform (4) and Hold (2). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $73.57. This implies a total return of $23.80% with 22.01% from capital gains and 1.79% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They like this company and one suggests to hold for the long term. Adam Othman on Motley Fool likes this stock for its stability and capital gains. A writer on Simply Wall Street thought this company had a intrinsic value of $44.89 in October 2019. A writer on Simply Wall Street said in October 2019 that this company had a P/E of 19.78 when the industry average was 13.3.. Joseph McCarthy on The Enterprise Leader says in March 2020 that Canaccord Genuity raised their rating from Hold to Buy.

Toromont Industries Ltd is a Canadian industrial company. The company operates two business segments: Equipment Group and CIMCO. The larger segment by revenue, Equipment Group includes a Caterpillar dealership and rental operation of construction equipment. CIMCO offers solutions for the design, engineering, fabrication, and installation of industrial and recreational refrigeration systems. The company operates primarily in Canada and derives a smaller portion of sales from the United States of America. Its web site is here Toromont Industries Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 08, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks April 2020.... learn more on Tuesday, April 07, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Alaris Royalty Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. The stock price is relatively cheap. The company has warned that the next quarterly dividend maybe cut. There is lots of insider buying under $15.00. See my spreadsheet on Alaris Royalty Corp .

I own this stock of Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF). This is a stock that Dividends in Hand Blogger has bought in July 2016. I note that his site today says he is still holding this stock. His site is here. It was also recommended by Acumen Capital report in a report by Brian Pow and Oliver Shao via Investor’s Digest.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there was a lot of insider buying after the stock sunk to under $15.00. Buying continued as stock fell more. Insider buy is at 1.20% of market cap when you expect it to be closer to 0.01%. Insider buying is over $4M.

The dividend yields are good to high with dividend growth low. Because of the bear market dividend yields are high (over 7%). The current dividend is 21.57%. The other dividend yields I am looking at are from good (5% and 6% ranges) to high (over 7%). The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 7.67%, 6.79%and 6.98%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently fine, but dividend could be at risk. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 168% with 5 year coverage at 125%. The DPR for CFPS is 60% with 5 year coverage at 70%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 81% with 5 year coverage at 83%. They get cash flow from their partners and pass it along as dividends. They think that their partners have will have business interruptions because of the Covid -19 situation before the second quarterly dividend is due and this will lead to a cut in dividends in the second quarter. See their March 19 News Release.

Debt Ratios are fine. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 was 0.35. With this bear market it is currently at 1.02. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.87, but has been volatile. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 2.34 with a 5 year median of 4.20 but this has also been volatile. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are 1.74 and 0.74 with 5 year medians of 1.31 and 0.31. These ratios have not been volatile.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 12 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	2.34%	-3.60%	-9.11%	5.52%
2009	10	5.24%	19.48%	9.13%	10.35%
2007	12		14.73%	6.76%	7.96%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.05, 17.48 and 21.90. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.12, 18.34 and 22.35. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.38, 13.66 and 19.54. The current P/E Ratio 5.17 based on a stock price of $7.65 and 2020 EPS estimate of $1.48. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $23.42. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 085, 1.06 and 1.28. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.33 based on a stock price of $7.65. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.32. The current ratio is 0.46 based on a stock price of $7.65, Book Value of $604M, and Book Value per Share of $16.47. The current ratio is 65% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.98%. The current dividend yield is 21.37% based on dividends of $1.65 and a stock price of $7.65. The current yield is 209% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.79%. The current dividend yield is 21.37% based on dividends of $1.65 and a stock price of $7.65. The current yield is 217% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 10.81. The current P/S Ratio is 2.78 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $101M, Revenue per Share of $2.75 and a stock price of $7.65. The current ratio is 74% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio test confirms the dividend yield tests to say it is cheap. There is not problem with the testing. However, I notice that estimates have not been changing due to the Covid 19 virus. Probably because no one knows what will happen. The other thing is that the company said that the next quarterly dividend maybe cut but they will not know for sure until closer to the time when it is to be announced.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like the idea of this stock where they invest in private companies. I will probably buy some more in this bear market. It will not be many shares because I do not have a lot of free cash. The stock price is cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $13.82. This implies a total return of 102.22% with 80.65% from capital gains and 21.57% from dividends. This price is below the price it has been for some time.

See what analysts think of this stock at Stock Chase. Mostly the analysts like this stock. Kay Ng on Motley Fool thinks this is too high a risk for investment. A writer at Simply Wall Street says in June 2018 that the company was trading at 97% of intrinsic value at $16.51. Trapping Value on Seeking Alpha thinks this company is a current buy at $7.92. The company on Newswire announced the sale of its Sandbox Acquisitions. It seems this was a surprise and they lost money on this investment.

Alaris Royalty Corp is engaged in investing in operating entities. Its operations consist primarily of investments in private operating entities, typically in the form of preferred limited partnership interests, preferred interest in limited liability corporations in the United States, loans receivable, or long-term license and royalty arrangements. Its web site is here Alaris Royalty Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Sun Life Financial Inc (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF) ... learn more on Monday, April 6, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Sun Life Financial Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Insurer. The stock price is relatively cheap. There is lots of insider buying. See my spreadsheet on Sun Life Financial Inc .

I own this stock of Sun Life Financial Inc (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF). I first bought this stock in 2000 when it was first demutualized. It was very cheap. I bought more in 2001, 2003 and 2006. This stock was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth stock list and on the other dividend lists that I followed.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the TSX Composite Index is down 21% and this stock is down 22.6% since the end of 2019. There has been buying over the past year. The Net Insider Buy is at 0.12%. This is high as you would expect it to be closer to 0.01%. There has been some buying after the drop at below $42.00.

This stock hit a high in 2007 of $55.71 that was only surpassed in 2019 with a high of $61.43 in November. This is the reason for the low 15 year total return of $5.67. The current price is lower now with this bear market. Insurance companies have had a hard time with extremely low interest rates. See chart below.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth that is low. The dividend yields have mostly been moderate (2% to 4% ranges). The exception was when this stock was first issued yields were low (below 2%) and when interest rates tanked, they were very high. The yield hit 9.50% in 2009. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.05%, with 5, 10 and historical rates are moderate at 3.64%, 3.91% and 3.63%. The dividend growth is low (under 8% per year) with the latest 5 year growth at 7.8% per year. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine, but the CF ones are a bit high. The DPR for 2019 for EPS is 48%, with 5 year coverage at 45%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 49% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 54% with 5 year coverage at 36%. Dividend Coverage Ratio for FCF is 1.85 with 5 year ratio at 2.79.

Debt Ratios are fine. Since this a financial, you need to look at the Long Term Debt /Asset Coverage Ratio. This ratio for 2019 is 0.81. This is good coverage. The Liquidity Ratio is not important but I calculated it anyway and for 2019 at 2.19. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.09 and this is fine for a financial. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are 12.13 and 11.13 and are normal for a financial.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	7.84%	10.01%	7.15%	2.86%
2009	10	3.85%	10.89%	6.95%	3.94%
2004	15	6.13%	5.67%	2.62%	3.05%
1999	20	7.66%	12.56%	8.00%	4.56%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.47, 13.38 and 10.47. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.30, 11.81 and 13.32. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.88, 13.50 and 14.88. The current P/E Ratio is 8.80 based on a stock price of $43.54 and dividends of $2.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $62.61. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76, 0.86 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.70 based on a stock price of $43.54. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of $1.41. The current P/B Ratio is 1.24 based on a Book Value of $20,687M, Book Value per Share of $35.19 and a stock price of $43.54. The current P/B Ratio is 12% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.63%. The current dividend is 5.05% based on dividends of $2.20 and a stock price of $43.54. The current dividend is 39% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.91%. The current dividend is 5.05% based on dividends of $2.20 and a stock price of $43.54. The current dividend is 29% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.95. The current P/S Ratio is 0.74 based on a stock price of $43.54, Revenue estimate for 2020 of $34,482M and Revenue per Share of $58.66. The current P/S Ratio is 22% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively cheap. Except for the P/B Ratio test, all the tests are showing the stock price as relatively cheap. The dividend yield test shows that the stock is relatively cheap and this is confirmed by the P/S Ratio. I see no problem with any of the tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I like insurance companies for long term investments. I have invested in insurance companies, with this stock plus Power Financial and Manulife. Both Sun Life and Power Financial have done much better for me than Manulife. I will continue to hold this company as I believe it is a good dividend stock to hold. The price is certainly reasonable and probably cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (4), Hold (10), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $60.56. This implies a total return of 44.14% with 39.09% from capital gains and 5.05% from dividends. A consensus of Hold does not really go with such a return expected within a year. The recommendations are all over the place.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase . Mixed views are insurance companies, but this one is liked better than Manulife. Karen Thomas on Motley Fool says it will have Covid virus headwinds in slower sales and higher claims. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that this company is growing its dividend but also is reinvesting more than half its income and this is pretty attractive combination. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that although there is a wide variance in estimates, there are no major changes in these estimates after the 4th quarter. Rita Trichur and Christine Dobby on the Globe and Mail says that banks and insurers are seeking count approval to hold online annual meetings amid coronavirus outbreak. Might this be the future?

Sun Life Financial Inc is one of Canada's Big Three life insurance companies along with Great-West Lifeco and Manulife. Sun Life provides insurance, retirement, and wealth-management services to individual and corporate customers in Canada, the United States, and Asia. Its web site is here Sun Life Financial Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Goodfellow Inc (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF) ... learn more on Friday, April 3, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Power Financial Corp.... learn more on Thursday, April 02, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Goodfellow Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Consumer. The stock price is relatively cheap. There is insider buying. Their new CFO bought 1,000 shares in February 2020. They have no long term debt, but they have taken off a bank loan. Bank loan in 2019 has a ratio of 0.76 compared to market cap rating to 1.04 currently. See my spreadsheet on Goodfellow Inc .

I own this stock of Goodfellow Inc (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF). Goodfellow looks like a good small cap stock. It was being pushed by Investor Reporter. The report I got was from 2010.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there is a bit of insider buying under $5.35. It is a good sign that the company restarted dividends in 2019. The company admits that there are challenging conditions in North America and overseas. This long slow recovery has been hard on a lot of companies. It has very good debt ratios with no long term debt. However, you have to worry about the effect of the Covid 19 flu on their future business and their dividends.

The dividend yields are mostly moderate with both dividend growth and dividend decreases. The current dividend is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.71%. This is not surprising as a lot of companies have higher than usual dividend yields. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 2.87%, 3.42% and 3.50% which is in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). As far as I know they started to pay dividends in 1991. Dividends have gone up and down over the years. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 57%. I cannot calculate 5 year coverage because the total 5 year EPS is negative. The DPR for CFPS is 18% with 5 year coverage at 26%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is 7% with 5 year coverage at 31%. Dividend Coverage Ratio is 14.41 with 5 year ratio at 3.24.

Debt Ratios are mostly good. They have gotten rid of their long term debt, but do have a current bank indebtedness at 0.76 in 2019, rising to 1.04 currently. This has to do with the bear market sell off. Their Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is very good at 2.22 with a 5 year median at 2.04. The Debt Ratio is also very good at 2.69 for 2019 with 5 year median ratio at 2.45. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are also very good at 1.59 and 0.59 respectively. The 5 year median ratios are 1.62 and 0.62.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth.	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-7.79%	-10.09%	-11.99%	1.90%
2009	10	-14.97%	-4.14%	-7.40%	3.26%
2004	15	-3.48%	-0.35%	-5.28%	4.93%
1999	20	1.80%	6.80%	-0.38%	7.18%
1994	25	4.29%	11.67%	2.98%	8.70%
1991	28	7.01%	10.63%	3.10%	7.53%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.26, $10.02 and 10.78. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.20, 12.98 and 13.76. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.08, 7.08 and 9.50. The current P/E Ratio is 10.00 based on a stock price of $3.50 and last 12 month EPS of $0.35. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. The trouble with P/E Ratios on this stock is the EPS are volatile.

I get a Graham Price of $10.21. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.53, 0.59 and 0.65. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.34 based on a stock price of $3.50. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.66. The current P/B Ratio is 0.26 based on a Book Value of $113.4M, Book Value per share of $13.24 and a stock price of $3.50. The current ratio is 60% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.50%. The current dividend yield is 5.71% based on dividends of $0.20 and a stock price of $3.50. The current dividend yield is 63% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.42%. The current dividend yield is 5.71% based on dividends of $0.20 and a stock price of $3.50. The current dividend yield is 67% higher than the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.16. The current P/S Ratio is 0.07 based on last 12 months Revenue of $449.6M, Revenue per Share of $52.51 and a stock price of $3.50. The current ratio is 58% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. All the tests are showing the same thing. The P/S Ratio test confirms what the dividend yield tests are showing which is the stock is relatively cheap. A possible problem with the dividend yield test is dividends have been volatile. There are no problems with the P/B Ratio test or the P/GP Ratio test.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The problem is that this company was doing quite well when I first bought it in 2010. The economy has gone through a long slow recovery since 2010 and it has been hard on a lot of companies.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find none. I looked at Market Beat and their community ratings for this stock and it is scored 2.7 out of 5. In community voting 53% feel it will outperform the market and 47% feel it will underperform the market.

There are no entries for this stock on Stock Chase. It is a small cap and not of much interest. Benjamin Sinclair on Motley Fool talks about this stock and does not suggest it is a buy. I had to go back to 2014 to find an entry. A writer on Simply Wall Street is not excited by this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street does not like the debt level and declining EPS. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the CEO of this company is being paid higher than at similar companies. He also says the earnings are growing, but I do not see that.

Goodfellow Inc is engaged in remanufacturers and distributors of lumber products and hardwood flooring products. It is engaged in the wholesale distribution of wood products, and remanufacturing, distribution, and brokerage of lumber. Its web site is here Goodfellow Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Sun Life Financial Inc (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 1, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Docebo Inc.... learn more on Tuesday, March 31, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Melcor Developments Inc

This morning I bought some Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF) for my TFSA. This is a speculative stock. I am using the money in the TFSA as my fooling around money.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Real Estate. The stock price is relatively cheap. However, dividends were decreased this year. The stock has not done well lately. Debt ratios are good. See my spreadsheet on Melcor Developments Inc .

I own this stock of Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). This was one of the stocks on Mike Higgs' list of good dividend growth stocks. So, I looked into it and bought it. I bought this stock first in 2008 and then some more in 2009. It is a little followed real estate company from Western Canada.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it has not been doing well lately. This is hardly surprising because the west, particularly Alberta, has not been doing well. I am keeping my stock because I hope that the west will revive. I think that we will have to wait for another Federal government for this to happen. It seems to me that Trudeau has no intention of letting the west revive. I am in Ontario and I think this. I wonder what the Albertan are saying to each other about Trudeau.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth stopped. The dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% Range) except for the current one which is good (5% and 6% ranges). The current dividend is 5.16% with 5, 10 and historical yields at 3.70%, 3.05% and 2.84%. The stock price has gone down so yields have gone up. However, they decreased the dividends by 20% this year. This is not the first time for dividends to decrease. Changes in dividend rate has been volatile. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was 44% with 5 year coverage at 35%. The DPR for CFPS was 45% with 5 year coverage at 48%. Because this is a real estate company the Funds from Operations (FFO) DPR counts too. The DPR for FFO for 2019 is 43% with 5 year coverage at 35%. I have been looking at Free Cash Flow lately also. The DPR for FCF for 2019 is 55% with 5 year coverage at 53%.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2019 is 1.70. This is not surprising as it is a company based in Western Canada. However, since this is a Real Estate company, you have to looks at the assets covering this debt. The Debt/Covering Asset Ratio is 0.48 and this is a good one. The Liquidity Ratio is not important for a RE company, but I calculated it anyway and it is good at 2.63. The Debt Ratio is also good at 2.06. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.394 and 0.94 respectively in 2019.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-2.92%	-4.37%	-7.48%	3.11%
2009	10	7.18%	5.99%	1.58%	4.41%
2004	15	9.98%	12.38%	6.61%	5.77%
1999	20	11.18%	17.80%	10.37%	7.43%
1994	25	11.91%	21.05%	10.91%	10.14%
1990	29	14.44%	17.15%	9.74%	7.42%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.31, 11.35 and 12.39. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.40, 7.51 and 8.69. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.30, 7.28 and 8.42. The current ratio is 6.35 based on a stock price of $7.75 and 2020 EPS estimate of $1.22. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $29.87. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.40, $0.43 and 0.50. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.26 based on a stock price of $7.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.59. The current P/B Ratio is 0.24 based on a Book Value of $1,080M, Book Value per Share of $32.51 and a stock price of $7.75. The current ratio is 60% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.84%. The current dividend yield is 5.16% based on dividends of $0.40 and a stock price of $7.75. The current dividend yield is 82% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.05%. The current dividend yield is 5.16% based on dividends of $0.40 and a stock price of $7.75. The current dividend yield is 69% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.98. The current P/S Ratio is 0.92 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $281M, Revenue per Share of $8.46 and a stock price of $7.75. The current ratio is 54% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. All the testing is showing that the stock price is cheap at $7.75. This is not surprising was we are in a bear market.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I will continue to hold on to my shares in this company. Hopefully, at some point the west will revive. It is just hard to say when at this point.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find one recommendation of Hold. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $13.50. This implies a total return of 79.35% with 74.19% from capital gains and $5.16% from dividends.

See what analysts have to say on Stock Chase. There are few entries but the latest one by a shorter says he is covering his shorts. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool says to buy as it is one of the cheapest real estate stocks. A Writer on Simply Wall Street says it is a buy because it can cover its dividend and interest payments. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the average real estate P/E is 13.5 and this company’s is 7.5. This means that the market is unimpressed with this company. On Rentx.ca the company talks about actions they are taking because of Covid-19.

Melcor Developments Ltd is a real estate development and asset management company. It develops and manages mixed-use residential communities, business and industrial parks, office buildings, retail commercial centers and golf courses. Its web site is here Melcor Developments Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was BCE Inc (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Goodfellow Inc (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF) ... learn more on Monday, March 30, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

BCE Inc

Today I bought 100 shares of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ). I tried last week when it was $11.93, but stock just went up in price and I missed it. I do put a limit price on buying, especially in a volatile market as you do not know what will happen. Today I bought it at $14.52 because this is still a good price and the markets have been going up. Who knows what the markets are going to do? I do not.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telecom. The stock price is probably reasonable. Insider have been sellers of this stock this year. There has been no insider buying since the current bear market started. This is interesting. The DPR for EPS needs to be improved. See my spreadsheet on BCE Inc .

I own this stock of BCE Inc (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE). I bought this stock in 1982 and have held it ever since. Since I bought it both Nortel and Bell Aliant were spin off. The problem with BCE's spinning off part of the company was that I ended up with an odd number of shares. It is annoying.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed because I had this stock since 1982 and I only started with Quicken in 1988 and because of the spin offs of Nortel and Bell Aliant, I can only judge the total return with BCE because including Nortel and Bell Aliant in with BCE. I sold off both Nortel and Bell Aliant. Because I sold half my Nortel soon after getting the shares in my account (and half when the price had crashed) is part of the reason I have done well. My total return on BCE is 10.20% per year since 1988. This is quite good.

It is interesting that since this stock has tanked along with the stock market, there has been no insider buying. Insider selling has stopped. There was a lot of insider selling over the past year. The Net Insider Selling at 0.19%. You would expect this to be at 0.01% or 0.02% at the most.

I have also noticed that the Stock Price given by TD Bank and the ones I have collected over the years vary. TD has a higher total return after 15 years than what I do. Although, my values come closer to what I have experience with this stock over the years. Of course, it could come down to how they and I have handled the spin offs over the years.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current yield is in the good range (5 and 6% ranges) as is to be expected as we are in a bear market. The current yield is 6.11%. The other median dividend yields of 5, 10 and historical are in the moderate range (2% to 4%). The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 4.73%, 5.73% and 4.63%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are mostly too high and need improvement. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 93% with 5 year coverage at 89%. Analysts think that it will be higher this year and do not see any retreat in this ratio in the short term. These ratios are too high. The DPR for CFPS is good (under 40%) in 2019 at 30% and 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is probably also too high at 71% in 2019 with 5 year coverage at 80%.

Debt Ratios are fine. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.41. It has decreased to 0.46 currently. (With this ratio, lower is better.) The Liquidity Ratio is 0.56 and it has always been too low. You have to added in cash flow after dividends and current portion of the long term debt to get to a good ratio. That ratio for 2019 is 1.98. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is good at 1.55. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are 2.81 and 1.81 respectively and are fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below. I am not surprised that the 20 year total return is negative, as the stock market hit a very high value at the end of 1999, especially for any stock connected in any way to tech. (Also note above the TD bank gives different values for longer terms.)

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	5.17%	7.52%	2.46%	5.06%
2009	10	7.08%	13.72%	7.57%	6.15%
2004	15	6.61%	9.81%	5.00%	4.81%
1999	20	4.91%	-0.99%	-3.22%	2.23%
1994	25	3.91%	9.38%	4.52%	4.86%
1989	30	3.57%	8.31%	3.72%	4.59%
1984	35	3.43%	9.26%	4.00%	5.26%
1983	36	3.47%	13.37%	5.34%	8.03%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.41, 17.95 and 19.48. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.95, 17.54 and 19.02. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.1, 16.76 and 17.12. The current P/E Ratio 15.71 based on a stock price of $54.50 and 2020 EPS estimate of $3.47. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $38.40. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.42, 1.56 and 1.71. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $54.50. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.13. The current P/B Ratio is 2.89 based on a Book Value of $17,070M, Book Value per Share of $18.88 and a stock price of $54.50. The current ratio is 8% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.63%. The current dividend yield is 6.11% based on a stock price of $54.50 and dividends of $3.33. The current yield is 32% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.17%. The current dividend yield is 6.11% based on a stock price of $54.50 and dividends of $3.33. The current yield is 18% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.06. The current P/S Ratio is 2.02 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $24,372M, Revenue per Share of $26.96 and a stock price of $54.50. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable It is surprising that a lot of this testing is showing the stock price as reasonable rather than cheap. The P/S Ratio which cannot be ignored is showing the stock price as just 2% below the median. The good news seems to be that the yield is relatively high.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I will continue to hold my shares in BCE but I am not planning on buying any more even though this company is not very large as a percentage of my holdings. This is the first stock I bought, so I will keep it. However, I am unsure of how good a business a telecom is at present.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (4), Hold (8) and Sell (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $63.03. This implies a total return of 21.76% with 15.65% from capital gains and 6.11% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Some like it but others say it is a slow growth company. Haris Anwar on Motley Fool thinks BCE is a low risk stock with a strong cash flow. A writer on Simply Wall Street does not like the EPS dividend coverage, but says FCF coverage is fine. A writer on Simply Wall Street in September 2019 said the intrinsic value of BCE was $113, and so the stock was undervalued.. Debasis Saha on Insider Monkey says Hedge Funds have never before been this bullish on BCE.

BCE is both a wireless and Internet service provider, offering wireless, broadband, television, and landline phone services in Canada. It is one of the big three national wireless carriers, with its nearly 10 million customers constituting about 30% of the market. Its web site is here BCE Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF) ... learn more on Friday, March 27, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Enbridge Inc.... learn more on Thursday, March 26, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

AltaGas Ltd

his morning I bought some HLS Therapeutics Inc (TSX-HLS, OTC-HLTRF) for my TFSA. I am using the money in the TFSA as my fooling around money.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Utility. The stock price is relatively cheap and has fallen some 50% in this bear market. I am hoping with the latest dividend decrease and the DPR in a good place this stock will be a dividend growth stock. See my spreadsheet on AltaGas Ltd.

I own this stock of AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF). When I bought this stock in 2009 it was on many dividend growth stock lists. In 2009, I saw that this stock also had good growth in Revenues, Earnings, Dividends, and Stock Prices over the last 5 and 10 years. The stock had a fairly strong balance sheet. I took a small position in this stock, and planned to wait and see how things go with this stock before buying more. I bought more in 2010 and 2012.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that although there are more insider buys and insider sells over the past year, insiders started to do a lot of insider buying under $14.00. Also, there is big increases in the number of shares outstanding. Shares have increased by 16% and 13% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For shareholders the most important figures are the per share figures. The increases can make a lot of difference. The Revenue has increase by 18% and 16% per year over the past 5 and 10 years but the Revenue per Share increases are quite low at 1.8% and 2.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

This company has decreased the dividend twice in the last 10 years. They used to be an income trust. Income Trust can pay out more in dividends than earnings. However, corporations cannot pay out in dividends more than in earnings. With this second decrease, they have brought the DPR into a more reasonable place. Hopefully, this will be a dividend growth stock going forward.

The dividend yields are good to high with dividend growth negative. The current dividend yield is high (7% and above). This used to be an income trust, so dividends yields have often been high as income trust could pay out a lot in dividends. The current yield is 9.70%. The 5, 10 and historical are good (5% and 6% ranges) They are 6.41%, 5.29% and 6.21%. Most of what I have earned on this stock has been in dividends.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are improving from a low position. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 35% with 5 year coverage at 520%. Analysts expect that this DPR will move to 77% in 2020 and stay lower than it has been. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 32% with 5 year coverage at 66%. This DPR is also expected to move lower than in previous years. The Free Cash Flow has been negative for the past 3 years. Analysts expect that it will turn positive in 2020 and be high enough to sufficient cover the dividend and continue to do so in the coming years.

Debt Ratios are not great but are improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap was 1.07 in 2019. With the stock market moving lower, this will not improve much in the short term, but debt is going down. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.70. If you add in cash flow after dividends and add back in the current portion of long term debt it is 1.15. This is a low value and it is better at 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.59 and a good value. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are 2.69 and 1.69 and are fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-10.48%	-8.82%	-14.52%	5.70%
2009	10	-7.79%	9.09%	0.51%	8.58%
2004	15	-1.46%	7.52%	-1.04%	8.56%
1999	20	10.86%	18.03%	6.15%	11.89%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 28.32, 31.83 and 35.53. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 24.24, 28.48 and 32.71. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.74, 15.60 and 18.61. The current P/E Ratio is 7.92 based on a stock price of $9.90 and 2020 EPS estimate of $1.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $23.20. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.25, 1.43 and 1.63. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.43 based on a stock price of $9.90. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current P/B Ratio is 0.51 based on Book Value of $5,429M, Book Value per Share of $19.46 and a stock price of $9.90. The current ratio is 70% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.21%. The current dividend yield is 9.70% based on a stock price of $9.90 and dividends of $0.96. The current dividend yield is 56% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.29%. The current dividend yield is 9.70% based on a stock price of $9.90 and dividends of $0.96. The current dividend yield is 83% above the 10 year dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.17. The current P/S Ratio is 1.17 based on a stock price of $9.90, Revenue estimate for 2020 of $6,545M, and Revenue per Share of $23.45. The current ratio is 46% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. We are in a bear market and this stock on all tests is showing as cheap. This cannot be surprising as the stock price has fallen 50% this year.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I will continue to hold the shares I have for this company. It has not been easy for this company to switch from an income trust to a corporation. However, I am hoping that it will become a dividend growth company. Price is currently cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (4) and Hold (7). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $20.53. This implies a total return of 117.07% with 107.37% from capital gains and 9.70% from dividends based on a stock price of $9.90.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. There are mixed reviews on this stock. Nelson Smith on Motley Fool thinks this stock is ridiculously cheap and a buy. A writer on Simply Wall Street does not like the debt load or the unstable dividend. He does not understand the problems that old income trust companies have faced. A writer on Simply Wall Street said the stock was fairly priced at $18.61 in August 2019. Brian Anderson on Smarter Analysts said that a Raymond James analyst has maintained its Hold rating on this company in March 2020 when stock was priced at $15.53.

AltaGas Ltd owns and operates a diversified basket of energy infrastructure businesses. Business is conducted through three segments: Midstream, power, and utilities. Revenue is derived from customers in both Canada and the United States, with Canadian customers contributing the most. Its web site is here AltaGas Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TC Energy Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be BCE Inc (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 25, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Fortis Inc.... learn more on Tuesday, March 24, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.