Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price reasonable to high. It cannot be surprising that that the current stock price is testing as high on some tests. Shares are up by some 30% so far this year. There are a number of stock price tests that suggest the price is relatively high and some suggests it is reasonable but above the median. See my spreadsheet on TransForce Inc.
I do not own this stock of TransForce Inc. (TSX-TIF, OTC-TFIFF). I read a report called "6 Canadian Dividend Stocks That Fly Under the Radar" by John Heinzl in April of 2013. This is one of the stocks mentioned. There was also a good review of this stock by Advice Hotline by MPL Communications.
When we look at the growth of dividends, we must take into consideration that fact that this company was an income trust. When the new tax laws were announced it reduced its dividend by almost 75%. After a year of flat dividends, it started to increase the dividend again. They is why the dividend growth over the past 10 years is a negative 6.1% per year and the dividend growth over the past 5 years is a positive 11.2% per year.
The dividends are moderate as it the dividend increases. The current dividend is 2.22% based on a stock price of $30.60 and dividends of $0.68. The 5 year median is 2.58%. The historical median dividend yield is high at 7.07%. It is high because this stock used to be an Income Trust and Income Trust companies had high dividend yields comparatively to other companies. You cannot judge current yields by the historical yields for old Income Trust companies as they will probably never get such high dividend yields again.
Dividend increases have been inconsistent. It is an industrial stock which implies that it will be affected by economic cycles. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and it was for 17.2%. There has been no increase this year. Analysts do not really expect one until perhaps 2018.
Outstanding shares have increased by 2.5% over the past 10 years and are basically flat over the past 5 years. If looking at 10 year growth, if would be best to look at per share growth. Revenue and Cash Flow growth is good, but earnings have just increased over the past 5 years, not over the past 10 years. This is because earnings were very good 10 years ago. For example Revenue per Share has grown by 14.5% and 7.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings are down by 2.2% and up by 8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
EPS is expected to be quite high in 2016 and this is because net income from discontinued operations is mainly attributable to income tax adjustments to the rig moving services' earnings.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.58, 16.49 and 19.41. The corresponding 10 year values are 11.55, 14.34 and 17.12. The Historical values are 8.45, 11.23 and 12.45. They have been increasing as this company has grown.
Because the 2016 EPS estimate is very high as mentioned above, I will use the EPS estimate for 2017 which is $2.41 and gives a P/E of 12.70 based on a stock price of $30.60. If you use the EPS for the 12 month period ending at the end of the third quarter of 2016 of $1.56, the P/E Ratio would be 19.62 based on a stock price of $30.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price might be relatively reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $19.46 for 2015, one of 34.71 for 2016 (because of the high EPS) and one of 23.89 for 2017. The low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.80, 1.18 and 1.40. The current Price/Graham Price Ratio is 1.57, 0.88 and 1.28 based on the above 3 scenarios using a stock price of $30.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high, cheap and reasonable, but above the median in these three scenarios. I would think the stock price is on the expensive side.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.13. The current P/B Ratio is 2.91 a value some 36% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $10.52 and a stock price of $30.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price if relatively high.
If you look at the 5 year median Dividend Yield for testing, I see a 5 year median Dividend Yield of 2.58%. The current Dividend Yield of 2.22% based on dividend of $0.68 and a stock price of $30.60. The current Dividend Yield is some 14% lower than the 5 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median.
The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 0.52. The current P/S Ratio is 0.74 a value some 43% higher. The current P/S Ratio is based on 2015 Revenue estimate of $4,021M and stock price of $30.60 and shares of 97.633M and therefore Revenue per Share of $41.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price if relatively high
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $32.33. This implies a total return of 7.88% with 2.22% from dividends and 5.65% from capital gains based on a current price of $30.60.
This article by Jonathan Ratner in the Financial Post talks about the company's purchase of XPO Logistics Inc.'s truckload shipping business. This article by Winifred Garcia in the What's on Thorold talks about recent analysts ratings for this company. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM)... learn more on Wednesday, November 9, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks November 2016... learn more on Tuesday, November 8, 2016 around 5 pm.
TransForce Inc. is a North American leader in the transportation and logistics industry operating across Canada and the United States through its subsidiaries. TransForce companies service the following segments: Package and Courier; Less-Than-Truckload; Truckload, which includes specialized truckload and dedicated services; Specialized Services, which includes services to the energy sector, waste management, logistics and ancillary transportation services. Its web site is here TransForce Inc..
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, November 7, 2016
Friday, November 4, 2016
Molson Coors Canada
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Relatively Expensive. That I should find this stock expensive is hardly surprising. The stock is up by 226% over the past 4 year in CDN$ terms and 143% in US$ terms. (The US$ is up 34% against the CDN$ over the same time period.) See my spreadsheet on Molson Coors Canada.
I do not own this stock of Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP). In 2008 I did a spreadsheet on this stock as it has recently been recommended and generally, beer companies generally make good money. Labatt's was one of the original companies that I purchased and I did very well with it before it was bought out.
One thing stands out and that is that they have $9,981.5M cash at the end of the third quarter of 2016. This is because they increased debt and issued stock. It looks like this was done to buy the remaining 58% stake in the MillerCoors' joint venture. The stock of this company has also been soaring.
This is a dividend growth company. The dividends are paid in US$, so if you are a Canadian, your dividends will fluctuate based on the currency exchange rates. The current dividend is low but it is generally moderate. The dividend increases are moderate. The current dividend is 1.58% based on $1.64 US$ and a stock price of $104.00. (It is the same in CDN$ that is a dividend yield of 1.58% with Dividends of $2.20 and a stock price of $138.73.) The historical Dividend Yield is 1.9% and the 5 year median Dividend Yield is 2.56%.
Dividends have grown at the rate of 8.7% and 9.9% per year in US$ terms over the past 5 and 10 years. They have grown better in CDN$ terms because of a falling CDN$. The dividend growth in CDN$ terms is at 16.1% and 11.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2015 was a bit high in 2015 at 85% of EPS. However, over the past 5 years the average DPR for EPS was 50%. The DPR for CFPS was 35% for 2015 and was lower at 24% for the average for the past 5 years. (This is in US$, but you do not get very different results using CDN$.)
There has not been much growth in Revenue, Earnings or Cash Flow lately, but analysts expect better results in 2016. For example Revenue per Share is up just 1.9% over the past 5 years. Analysts expect Revenue per Share to grow 172% in 2016. However, Revenue in the third quarter is down. If you compare the 12 months to the end of the third quarter to the 12 months to the end of 2015, Revenue is down by 3.7%. Revenue does not seem to be going in the right direction.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.01, 17.45 and 18.88. The corresponding 10 year values are 15.32, 16.94 and 18.55. The historical values are 13.36, 15.91 and 18.55. These are all very close. The current P/E Ratio is 23.02 based on a stock price of $138.73 and 2016 EPS estimate of $6.03 CDN$ ($4.50 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $89.58. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 0.87 and 0.98. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.55 based on a stock price of $138.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 2.34, a value some 105% above the 10 year median ratio. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $59.19 and a stock price of $138.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a historical median Dividend Yield of 2.22%. The current Dividend Yield of 1.58% based on dividends of $2.20 CDN$ ($1.64 US$) and a stock price of $138.73 CDN$. The current Dividend Yield is some 28% higher than the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The most recommendations are a Buy and the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month Stock Price is $127.33. This implies a total return of 24.01% based on a stock price of $104.00. Of this return 22.43% would come from capital gain and 1.58% from dividends.
The company issued its third quarterly report results on Business Wire. There is also another report on their gaining full ownership of MillerCoors and Global Miller Brand Portfolio on Business Wire. Black Coral Research has put out a report on this company at Seeking Alpha .
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be TransForce Inc. (TSX-TIF, OTC-TFIFF)... learn more on Monday, November 7, 2016 around 5 pm.
Molson Coors Brewing Company is a leading global brewer delivering extraordinary brands that delight the world's beer drinkers. It brews, markets and sells a portfolio of leading premium brands such as Coors Light, Molson Canadian, Carling, Blue Moon, and Keystone Light across North America, Europe and Asia. It operates in Canada through Molson Coors Canada; in the US through MillerCoors; and in the U.K. and Ireland through Molson Coors UK. Its web site is here Molson Coors Canada.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP). In 2008 I did a spreadsheet on this stock as it has recently been recommended and generally, beer companies generally make good money. Labatt's was one of the original companies that I purchased and I did very well with it before it was bought out.
One thing stands out and that is that they have $9,981.5M cash at the end of the third quarter of 2016. This is because they increased debt and issued stock. It looks like this was done to buy the remaining 58% stake in the MillerCoors' joint venture. The stock of this company has also been soaring.
This is a dividend growth company. The dividends are paid in US$, so if you are a Canadian, your dividends will fluctuate based on the currency exchange rates. The current dividend is low but it is generally moderate. The dividend increases are moderate. The current dividend is 1.58% based on $1.64 US$ and a stock price of $104.00. (It is the same in CDN$ that is a dividend yield of 1.58% with Dividends of $2.20 and a stock price of $138.73.) The historical Dividend Yield is 1.9% and the 5 year median Dividend Yield is 2.56%.
Dividends have grown at the rate of 8.7% and 9.9% per year in US$ terms over the past 5 and 10 years. They have grown better in CDN$ terms because of a falling CDN$. The dividend growth in CDN$ terms is at 16.1% and 11.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2015 was a bit high in 2015 at 85% of EPS. However, over the past 5 years the average DPR for EPS was 50%. The DPR for CFPS was 35% for 2015 and was lower at 24% for the average for the past 5 years. (This is in US$, but you do not get very different results using CDN$.)
There has not been much growth in Revenue, Earnings or Cash Flow lately, but analysts expect better results in 2016. For example Revenue per Share is up just 1.9% over the past 5 years. Analysts expect Revenue per Share to grow 172% in 2016. However, Revenue in the third quarter is down. If you compare the 12 months to the end of the third quarter to the 12 months to the end of 2015, Revenue is down by 3.7%. Revenue does not seem to be going in the right direction.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.01, 17.45 and 18.88. The corresponding 10 year values are 15.32, 16.94 and 18.55. The historical values are 13.36, 15.91 and 18.55. These are all very close. The current P/E Ratio is 23.02 based on a stock price of $138.73 and 2016 EPS estimate of $6.03 CDN$ ($4.50 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $89.58. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 0.87 and 0.98. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.55 based on a stock price of $138.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 2.34, a value some 105% above the 10 year median ratio. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $59.19 and a stock price of $138.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a historical median Dividend Yield of 2.22%. The current Dividend Yield of 1.58% based on dividends of $2.20 CDN$ ($1.64 US$) and a stock price of $138.73 CDN$. The current Dividend Yield is some 28% higher than the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The most recommendations are a Buy and the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month Stock Price is $127.33. This implies a total return of 24.01% based on a stock price of $104.00. Of this return 22.43% would come from capital gain and 1.58% from dividends.
The company issued its third quarterly report results on Business Wire. There is also another report on their gaining full ownership of MillerCoors and Global Miller Brand Portfolio on Business Wire. Black Coral Research has put out a report on this company at Seeking Alpha .
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be TransForce Inc. (TSX-TIF, OTC-TFIFF)... learn more on Monday, November 7, 2016 around 5 pm.
Molson Coors Brewing Company is a leading global brewer delivering extraordinary brands that delight the world's beer drinkers. It brews, markets and sells a portfolio of leading premium brands such as Coors Light, Molson Canadian, Carling, Blue Moon, and Keystone Light across North America, Europe and Asia. It operates in Canada through Molson Coors Canada; in the US through MillerCoors; and in the U.K. and Ireland through Molson Coors UK. Its web site is here Molson Coors Canada.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Pason Systems Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is cheap. I like the dividend yield test because you are using current values. However, the dividend might be in danger of being cut or suspended. The time to buy this stock might be when revenues actually start to pick up. See my spreadsheet on Pason Systems Inc.
I do not own this stock of Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF). I read a report on this stock in the Buy and Sell Advisor in September 2013. I had not heard of this dividend growth company before so I decided to investigate it.
This stock has had a rough year in 2015 and 2016 seems worse. However, this cannot be surprising because this company is in the business of support for the oil industry. I doubt that we will be off oil in less than 20 years. There will be companies that make money in oil even if the price stays low. Look at life insurance companies that have lately been able to make money and raise dividend even with interest rates staying low.
Dividends are moderate to low and the dividend growth has been good. The current dividend yield is good at 4.46% based on dividends of $0.68 and a stock price of $15.25. However, the 5 year median dividend yield is 2.77% and the historical median dividend yield (12 years) is 2.18%. The dividend yield started off below 1% and has been increasing over the years.
The dividend growth is good. The growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 17.8% and 23.9% per year. The Dividend Payout Ratios is current rather high partially because they did not earn anything in 2015. If you look at average EPS and Dividend over the past 5 years, they have paid out 90% of earnings in dividends. The DPR for CFPS is better being at 60.6% in 2015 and has an average of 29.8%.
They are currently in a very tough business. However, they seem prepared to weather problems. Their debt ratios are good. Their Liquidity Ratio has always been good with a 5 year median of 2.99. However, the one for 2015 was 12.85 and the current one is 11.28. The Debt Ratios are also current very high at 13.88 for 2015 and currently at 11.85. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.08 and 0.08.
Analysts expect that the company will pick up in 2017 and 2018 but who really knows? Revenue is going south quickly. Revenue is down by 43% in 2015 and is expected to be down by another 47% in 2016. If you compare the 12 months to the end of 2015 to the 12 months to the end of the second quarter Revenue is down by 29%. Revenue for the second quarter of 2016 is some 54% lower than revenue for the second quarter of 2015.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share ratios are 15.86, 21.00 and 26.15. The corresponding 10 year values are 16.11, 20.46 and 25.16. The historical ones are 8.47, 19.22 and 23.95. These are fairly consistent. Since the EPS last year and this year is negative, we cannot determine a proper P/E Ratio and use this for testing the stock price. When the EPS turns positive, these values might be useful.
I get a Graham Price of $7.38. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.80, 2.17 and 2.58. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.40. The current P/B Ratio is 3.06 based on BVPS of $4.98 and a stock price of $15.25. The current P/B Ratio is some 9.8% lower than the 10 year ratio. This suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
The current dividend yield is 4.46% based on dividends of $0.68 and a stock price of $15.25. The old historical dividend high is 3.95%. The current dividend yield is 12.9% higher than the old high dividend yield high. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. The most are Hold recommendations and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 months stock price is $17.95. This implies a total return of $22.16% with 17.70% from capital gains and 4.46% from Dividends when based on a current price of $15.25.
Kevin Wiens put out a long report on this company on Seeking Alpha. It is dated March 2015, but it is very through and so still relevant I believe. Eileen French talks about this stock being downgraded to a Hold recently by GMP Securities. Other companies have done the same. Karen Thomas of Motley Fool wrote a report on this company a year ago. It is interest as it points out that this is a quality company that has handled the downturn better than other companies.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP)... learn more on Friday, November 4, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Derek Foster... learn more on Thursday, November 3, 2016 around 5 pm
Pason is the leading global provider of specialized data management systems for drilling rigs. Their solutions, which include data acquisition, well-site reporting, remote communications, and web-based information management, enable collaboration between the rig and the office. Its web site is here Pason Systems Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF). I read a report on this stock in the Buy and Sell Advisor in September 2013. I had not heard of this dividend growth company before so I decided to investigate it.
This stock has had a rough year in 2015 and 2016 seems worse. However, this cannot be surprising because this company is in the business of support for the oil industry. I doubt that we will be off oil in less than 20 years. There will be companies that make money in oil even if the price stays low. Look at life insurance companies that have lately been able to make money and raise dividend even with interest rates staying low.
Dividends are moderate to low and the dividend growth has been good. The current dividend yield is good at 4.46% based on dividends of $0.68 and a stock price of $15.25. However, the 5 year median dividend yield is 2.77% and the historical median dividend yield (12 years) is 2.18%. The dividend yield started off below 1% and has been increasing over the years.
The dividend growth is good. The growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 17.8% and 23.9% per year. The Dividend Payout Ratios is current rather high partially because they did not earn anything in 2015. If you look at average EPS and Dividend over the past 5 years, they have paid out 90% of earnings in dividends. The DPR for CFPS is better being at 60.6% in 2015 and has an average of 29.8%.
They are currently in a very tough business. However, they seem prepared to weather problems. Their debt ratios are good. Their Liquidity Ratio has always been good with a 5 year median of 2.99. However, the one for 2015 was 12.85 and the current one is 11.28. The Debt Ratios are also current very high at 13.88 for 2015 and currently at 11.85. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.08 and 0.08.
Analysts expect that the company will pick up in 2017 and 2018 but who really knows? Revenue is going south quickly. Revenue is down by 43% in 2015 and is expected to be down by another 47% in 2016. If you compare the 12 months to the end of 2015 to the 12 months to the end of the second quarter Revenue is down by 29%. Revenue for the second quarter of 2016 is some 54% lower than revenue for the second quarter of 2015.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share ratios are 15.86, 21.00 and 26.15. The corresponding 10 year values are 16.11, 20.46 and 25.16. The historical ones are 8.47, 19.22 and 23.95. These are fairly consistent. Since the EPS last year and this year is negative, we cannot determine a proper P/E Ratio and use this for testing the stock price. When the EPS turns positive, these values might be useful.
I get a Graham Price of $7.38. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.80, 2.17 and 2.58. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.40. The current P/B Ratio is 3.06 based on BVPS of $4.98 and a stock price of $15.25. The current P/B Ratio is some 9.8% lower than the 10 year ratio. This suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
The current dividend yield is 4.46% based on dividends of $0.68 and a stock price of $15.25. The old historical dividend high is 3.95%. The current dividend yield is 12.9% higher than the old high dividend yield high. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. The most are Hold recommendations and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 months stock price is $17.95. This implies a total return of $22.16% with 17.70% from capital gains and 4.46% from Dividends when based on a current price of $15.25.
Kevin Wiens put out a long report on this company on Seeking Alpha. It is dated March 2015, but it is very through and so still relevant I believe. Eileen French talks about this stock being downgraded to a Hold recently by GMP Securities. Other companies have done the same. Karen Thomas of Motley Fool wrote a report on this company a year ago. It is interest as it points out that this is a quality company that has handled the downturn better than other companies.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP)... learn more on Friday, November 4, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Derek Foster... learn more on Thursday, November 3, 2016 around 5 pm
Pason is the leading global provider of specialized data management systems for drilling rigs. Their solutions, which include data acquisition, well-site reporting, remote communications, and web-based information management, enable collaboration between the rig and the office. Its web site is here Pason Systems Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, October 31, 2016
North West Company
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price probably reasonable. I think that the historical valuations a rather high for this stock. However, investors have done well. The 5 and 10 year total return to date is 11.01% and 10.79% with 5.69% and 4.54% from capital gains and 5.31% and 6.25% from dividends. The stock is also down by 16.7% year over year. See my spreadsheet on North West Company.
I do not own this stock of North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the Money Show of 2009. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Income Trust being currently good buys with very good yields. This stock changed from an income trust to a corporation in 2011.
This is a retail stock. As such it would have its ups and downs, but that does not mean that you should not diversify into such stocks in a well-rounded portfolio. I started with Utilities and Financials, then I diversified into consumer and industrial stock.
This company increased their dividends when it became an income trust then deceased the dividends when it became a corporation. Income trust companies could afford to pay higher dividends. Dividends were decreased in 2012 by almost 30%. After 2012 they started to increase the dividends again. Because of the dividend decrease the dividends declined by some 2.5% per year over the past 5 years.
Dividends are up by 6.7% over the past 10 years and by 5.7% over the past 4 years. The last dividend increase was for the financial year ending in January 2016 and it was for 6.9%. I would consider this stock to be dividend growth stock.
The dividend yield has always been good. The current dividend yield is 4.85% based on dividends of $1.24 and a stock price of $25.59. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.75% and the historical median dividend yield is 6.89%. Because this company was an income trust and income trusts always had higher dividends, I doubt that the company would ever again reach the high dividend yields it has in the past as an income trust.
If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago at a median price, you could be earnings 6.1%, 8.5% or 24.6% per year in yield based on your purchase price. If you bought the stock today at $25.59 based on a current yield of 4.85% and dividend increases of 5% per year, in 5, 10 or 15 years you could be earning a dividend yield on this stock of 6.18%, 7.89% or 10.07%.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for the financial year ending in January 2016 for EPS was 83.9%. This is a little high but the DPR for EPS has always been in the high 70% and low 80% area. The DPR for CFPS for financial year ending in January 2016 was 36.9%. Its 5 year median DPR is 38.1%.
EPS has fluctuated. This is a retail stock and it has been a very long slow recovery that has affected adversely most retail stocks. EPS is down by 2% and up by 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. You can use per share values to look at growth for this company as the outstanding shares have not really varied over the past 5 and 10 years.
Revenue per Share is better with growth at 4.3% and 7.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has grown by 7.2% and 9.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.43, 18.54 and 20.59. The corresponding 10 year values are 13.04, 15.25 and 17.46. The historical values are 9.97, 12.44 and 14.32. It would appear that the P/E Ratios are growing. The current 5 year values are rather high for a retail stock. The current P/E Ratio is 17.29 based on a stock price of $25.59 and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.48. If you base the stock price test on 10 year and historical ratios, the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $15.35. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.32, 1.55 and 1.77. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.67 based on a stock price of $25.59. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share of $3.51. The current P/B Ratio is 3.62 based on BVPS of $7.07 and a stock price of $25.59. The current P/B Ratio is just 3.17% above the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median.
When doing a stock price test based on dividend yield, the only practical value to use is the 5 year median dividend yield which is 4.75%. The current Dividend Yield at 4.85% is 2% below the 5 year values. The current dividend yield is based on a stock price of $25.59 and dividends of $1.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 months stock price is $29.29. This implies a total return of 19.30% with 14.48% from capital gains and 4.85% from dividends.
The Thompson Citizen has a news article about Canada subsidizing nutritional food in Northern Canada. The company put out a Market Wired press release on their second quarterly results. Will Ashworth of Motley Fool gives three reasons to own this stock. And, finally see what analysts are saying about this stock at Stock Chase
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF)... learn more on Wednesday, November 2, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Zaid Jasani... learn more on Tuesday, November 1, 2016 around 5 pm.
The North West Company is a leading retailer of food and everyday products and services to rural communities and urban neighborhoods in Canada, Alaska, the South Pacific and the Caribbean. North West operates 225 stores under the trading names Northern, NorthMart, Giant Tiger, AC Value Center, and Cost-U-Less. Its web site is here North West Company.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the Money Show of 2009. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Income Trust being currently good buys with very good yields. This stock changed from an income trust to a corporation in 2011.
This is a retail stock. As such it would have its ups and downs, but that does not mean that you should not diversify into such stocks in a well-rounded portfolio. I started with Utilities and Financials, then I diversified into consumer and industrial stock.
This company increased their dividends when it became an income trust then deceased the dividends when it became a corporation. Income trust companies could afford to pay higher dividends. Dividends were decreased in 2012 by almost 30%. After 2012 they started to increase the dividends again. Because of the dividend decrease the dividends declined by some 2.5% per year over the past 5 years.
Dividends are up by 6.7% over the past 10 years and by 5.7% over the past 4 years. The last dividend increase was for the financial year ending in January 2016 and it was for 6.9%. I would consider this stock to be dividend growth stock.
The dividend yield has always been good. The current dividend yield is 4.85% based on dividends of $1.24 and a stock price of $25.59. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.75% and the historical median dividend yield is 6.89%. Because this company was an income trust and income trusts always had higher dividends, I doubt that the company would ever again reach the high dividend yields it has in the past as an income trust.
If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago at a median price, you could be earnings 6.1%, 8.5% or 24.6% per year in yield based on your purchase price. If you bought the stock today at $25.59 based on a current yield of 4.85% and dividend increases of 5% per year, in 5, 10 or 15 years you could be earning a dividend yield on this stock of 6.18%, 7.89% or 10.07%.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for the financial year ending in January 2016 for EPS was 83.9%. This is a little high but the DPR for EPS has always been in the high 70% and low 80% area. The DPR for CFPS for financial year ending in January 2016 was 36.9%. Its 5 year median DPR is 38.1%.
EPS has fluctuated. This is a retail stock and it has been a very long slow recovery that has affected adversely most retail stocks. EPS is down by 2% and up by 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. You can use per share values to look at growth for this company as the outstanding shares have not really varied over the past 5 and 10 years.
Revenue per Share is better with growth at 4.3% and 7.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has grown by 7.2% and 9.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.43, 18.54 and 20.59. The corresponding 10 year values are 13.04, 15.25 and 17.46. The historical values are 9.97, 12.44 and 14.32. It would appear that the P/E Ratios are growing. The current 5 year values are rather high for a retail stock. The current P/E Ratio is 17.29 based on a stock price of $25.59 and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.48. If you base the stock price test on 10 year and historical ratios, the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $15.35. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.32, 1.55 and 1.77. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.67 based on a stock price of $25.59. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share of $3.51. The current P/B Ratio is 3.62 based on BVPS of $7.07 and a stock price of $25.59. The current P/B Ratio is just 3.17% above the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median.
When doing a stock price test based on dividend yield, the only practical value to use is the 5 year median dividend yield which is 4.75%. The current Dividend Yield at 4.85% is 2% below the 5 year values. The current dividend yield is based on a stock price of $25.59 and dividends of $1.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 months stock price is $29.29. This implies a total return of 19.30% with 14.48% from capital gains and 4.85% from dividends.
The Thompson Citizen has a news article about Canada subsidizing nutritional food in Northern Canada. The company put out a Market Wired press release on their second quarterly results. Will Ashworth of Motley Fool gives three reasons to own this stock. And, finally see what analysts are saying about this stock at Stock Chase
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF)... learn more on Wednesday, November 2, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Zaid Jasani... learn more on Tuesday, November 1, 2016 around 5 pm.
The North West Company is a leading retailer of food and everyday products and services to rural communities and urban neighborhoods in Canada, Alaska, the South Pacific and the Caribbean. North West operates 225 stores under the trading names Northern, NorthMart, Giant Tiger, AC Value Center, and Cost-U-Less. Its web site is here North West Company.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, October 28, 2016
Equitable Group Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price reasonable. Some analysts are worried about this company's exposure to the Toronto Real Estate market and feel that there will be a drop in Real Estate prices in Toronto and that this will adversely affect Equitable Group. Well, the Real Estate market in Toronto cannot go up for ever and there must be a correction. Problem is that no one knows when. See my spreadsheet on Equitable Group Inc.
I do not own this stock of Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF). I had read a glowing report on investing on this company in 2013, so I decided to check it out. It was interesting as it was loaning money to new immigrants, a class of people who generally have a difficult time getting loans and mortgages from our regular banks. It sounded intriguing.
If I was looking for a financial services stock, I would consider this stock. It is an unusual bank and it is a dividend growth stock.
This maybe a dividend growth stock, but dividend increases have not been consistent as dividends were not raised in all years. They started to dividends late in 2004 after going public earlier that year. Dividends are low and the dividend increases are moderate. The current dividend is 1.53% based on Dividends of $0.84 and a stock price of $54.95. The historical median dividend is 1.41% and the 5 year median dividend is 1.38%. Dividends have growth by 13.1% and 9.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratio is low. The DPR EPS for 2015 is at 9.57%. The 5 year DPR for EPS is 9.97%. Since the cash flow is often negative, there is no DPR for CFPS that is meaningful. Banks often have negative cash flow.
The company has good growth in Revenue, Earnings and Book Value. There is an article by Sarah Johnson on CFO that talks about why cash flow is basically meaningless for Banks. This is an American discussion, but we have the same problem in Canada.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.67, 7.20 and 8.43. These are very low, but the corresponding 10 year values are not much better at 5.87, 7.10 and 8.57. The current P/E Ratio is 6.81 based on a stock price of $54.95 and 2016 EPS estimate of $8.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $91.96. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.48, 0.60 and 0.72. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.60 based on a stock price of $54.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is close to being relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.12. The current P/B Ratio is 1.18 a values some 5.3% higher and based on BVPS of $46.57 and a stock price of $54.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.41%. The current dividend yield is 1.53% a value some 8% higher based on dividends of $0.84 and a stock price of $54.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $69.50. This implies a total return of 28.01% with 1.53% from dividends and $26.48% from capital gains based on a current stock price of $54.95.
James Conley at Baseball News Source talks about analysts' consensus of a Buy. Rupert Hargreaves on Value Walk talk about Marc Cohodes being short on this stock. He is betting against the Canadian housing market. He thinks that Equitable is poorly positioned to weather any sort of home price correction. Cohodes also believes that Equitable will not be able to pass stress tests required by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. See what analysts are saying about this company at Stock Chase. David Baskin thinks there is an opportunity to by a quality company with Equitable Group.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be The North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF)... learn more on Monday, October 31, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Ancient World by Susan Wise Bauer. learn more...
Equitable Group Inc. is a niche mortgage lender. The company's primary business is first charge mortgage financing, which offer through company's wholly owned subsidiary, Equitable Bank (formerly The Equitable Trust Company). Equitable Bank is a Schedule I bank pursuant to the Bank Act; it actively originates mortgages across Canada and serves single family, small & large commercial borrowers. Its web site is here Equitable Group Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF). I had read a glowing report on investing on this company in 2013, so I decided to check it out. It was interesting as it was loaning money to new immigrants, a class of people who generally have a difficult time getting loans and mortgages from our regular banks. It sounded intriguing.
If I was looking for a financial services stock, I would consider this stock. It is an unusual bank and it is a dividend growth stock.
This maybe a dividend growth stock, but dividend increases have not been consistent as dividends were not raised in all years. They started to dividends late in 2004 after going public earlier that year. Dividends are low and the dividend increases are moderate. The current dividend is 1.53% based on Dividends of $0.84 and a stock price of $54.95. The historical median dividend is 1.41% and the 5 year median dividend is 1.38%. Dividends have growth by 13.1% and 9.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratio is low. The DPR EPS for 2015 is at 9.57%. The 5 year DPR for EPS is 9.97%. Since the cash flow is often negative, there is no DPR for CFPS that is meaningful. Banks often have negative cash flow.
The company has good growth in Revenue, Earnings and Book Value. There is an article by Sarah Johnson on CFO that talks about why cash flow is basically meaningless for Banks. This is an American discussion, but we have the same problem in Canada.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.67, 7.20 and 8.43. These are very low, but the corresponding 10 year values are not much better at 5.87, 7.10 and 8.57. The current P/E Ratio is 6.81 based on a stock price of $54.95 and 2016 EPS estimate of $8.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $91.96. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.48, 0.60 and 0.72. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.60 based on a stock price of $54.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is close to being relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.12. The current P/B Ratio is 1.18 a values some 5.3% higher and based on BVPS of $46.57 and a stock price of $54.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.41%. The current dividend yield is 1.53% a value some 8% higher based on dividends of $0.84 and a stock price of $54.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $69.50. This implies a total return of 28.01% with 1.53% from dividends and $26.48% from capital gains based on a current stock price of $54.95.
James Conley at Baseball News Source talks about analysts' consensus of a Buy. Rupert Hargreaves on Value Walk talk about Marc Cohodes being short on this stock. He is betting against the Canadian housing market. He thinks that Equitable is poorly positioned to weather any sort of home price correction. Cohodes also believes that Equitable will not be able to pass stress tests required by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. See what analysts are saying about this company at Stock Chase. David Baskin thinks there is an opportunity to by a quality company with Equitable Group.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be The North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF)... learn more on Monday, October 31, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Ancient World by Susan Wise Bauer. learn more...
Equitable Group Inc. is a niche mortgage lender. The company's primary business is first charge mortgage financing, which offer through company's wholly owned subsidiary, Equitable Bank (formerly The Equitable Trust Company). Equitable Bank is a Schedule I bank pursuant to the Bank Act; it actively originates mortgages across Canada and serves single family, small & large commercial borrowers. Its web site is here Equitable Group Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap with problems. The problem is that if the founders get what they want in arbitration, this would be some approximately 3 to 4 years of profit for the company. This would be very material to current shareholders and to the company. See my spreadsheet on Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
I own this stock of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. I had money in my TFSA to buy stock. GS's price was relatively below the median and it gives out special dividends all the time. I also wanted to try out a high yield, low capital gain stock.
First I have a couple of remarks. There is the near-term overhang of the co-founders litigation issue where the company expects to pay $12.2M and the co-founders are asking for $185M. Some analysts expect this to be settled closer to what the company expects. There is arbitration on this in December. Also analysts expected a dividend increase this quarter and there was not one.
This company went public in 2006 and started to pay dividends in their financial year ending June 30, 2007. Also since their financial year ending June 30, 2008, the company has paid a special dividend each year. Until this financial year they had raised their dividends every year. The dividend yield is good and the dividend increases are moderate. The special dividends have varied greatly from $0.10 to $2.80.
The current dividend yield is 6.18% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $16.17. The dividends have grown by 12.7% and 15% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. They pay out a high percentage of their earnings. In the financial year ending June 30, 2016 the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 97.7%. The DPR for CFPS was 58%.
Because of the high dividends, if you had bought this stock 5 year ago and paid a median price you would have received dividend equal to 55.5% of the stock's price. If you had bought this stock 10 years ago and paid a median price, you would have received dividend equal to 74.2% of the stock's price.
A problem is that not only has this company got the suit from the founders hanging over its head, but Assets under Management, Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow are all down for this financial year ending June 2016. This is not a great showing.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.95, 16.67 and 19.40. The corresponding 10 year values are 10.41, 15.57 and 18.49. The current P/E Ratio is 12.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It may even be relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $10.70. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.49, 2.07 and 2.55. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.51 based on a stock price of $16.17. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 6.29. The current P/B Ratio is 4.20 based on BVPS of $3.85 and a stock price of $16.17. The current P/B Ratio is some 33% lower than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The current Dividend Yield is 6.18% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $16.17. The historical median Dividend Yield is 3.05%. The current Dividend Yield is 103% higher. The 5 year Dividend Yield is 3.88% and this is some 59% lower than the current Dividend Yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 months target price of $19.69. This implies a total return of $27.95% with 21.77% from capital gains and 6.18% from dividends based on a current price of $16.17.
Christina Pellegrini of the Globe and Mail talks about the company's dispute with the founders. Peter Koven and Barry Critchley of the Financial Post also talk about the company's dispute with the founders. Also, the founders put out a Press Release on this subject. See what analysts are saying at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF)... learn more on Friday, October 28, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Warren MacKenzie... learn more on Thursday, October 27, 2016 around 5 pm.
Gluskin Sheff is an independent investment firm that manages portfolios for high net-worth individuals and institutional clients. Its web site is here Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. I had money in my TFSA to buy stock. GS's price was relatively below the median and it gives out special dividends all the time. I also wanted to try out a high yield, low capital gain stock.
First I have a couple of remarks. There is the near-term overhang of the co-founders litigation issue where the company expects to pay $12.2M and the co-founders are asking for $185M. Some analysts expect this to be settled closer to what the company expects. There is arbitration on this in December. Also analysts expected a dividend increase this quarter and there was not one.
This company went public in 2006 and started to pay dividends in their financial year ending June 30, 2007. Also since their financial year ending June 30, 2008, the company has paid a special dividend each year. Until this financial year they had raised their dividends every year. The dividend yield is good and the dividend increases are moderate. The special dividends have varied greatly from $0.10 to $2.80.
The current dividend yield is 6.18% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $16.17. The dividends have grown by 12.7% and 15% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. They pay out a high percentage of their earnings. In the financial year ending June 30, 2016 the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 97.7%. The DPR for CFPS was 58%.
Because of the high dividends, if you had bought this stock 5 year ago and paid a median price you would have received dividend equal to 55.5% of the stock's price. If you had bought this stock 10 years ago and paid a median price, you would have received dividend equal to 74.2% of the stock's price.
A problem is that not only has this company got the suit from the founders hanging over its head, but Assets under Management, Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow are all down for this financial year ending June 2016. This is not a great showing.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.95, 16.67 and 19.40. The corresponding 10 year values are 10.41, 15.57 and 18.49. The current P/E Ratio is 12.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It may even be relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $10.70. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.49, 2.07 and 2.55. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.51 based on a stock price of $16.17. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 6.29. The current P/B Ratio is 4.20 based on BVPS of $3.85 and a stock price of $16.17. The current P/B Ratio is some 33% lower than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The current Dividend Yield is 6.18% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $16.17. The historical median Dividend Yield is 3.05%. The current Dividend Yield is 103% higher. The 5 year Dividend Yield is 3.88% and this is some 59% lower than the current Dividend Yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 months target price of $19.69. This implies a total return of $27.95% with 21.77% from capital gains and 6.18% from dividends based on a current price of $16.17.
Christina Pellegrini of the Globe and Mail talks about the company's dispute with the founders. Peter Koven and Barry Critchley of the Financial Post also talk about the company's dispute with the founders. Also, the founders put out a Press Release on this subject. See what analysts are saying at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF)... learn more on Friday, October 28, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Warren MacKenzie... learn more on Thursday, October 27, 2016 around 5 pm.
Gluskin Sheff is an independent investment firm that manages portfolios for high net-worth individuals and institutional clients. Its web site is here Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, October 24, 2016
Medtronic PLC
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is cheap to reasonable. You may want to look at this stock if you want a US stock in the health care sector. See my spreadsheet on Medtronic PLC.
I do not own this stock of Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). In 2009 I was looking for a good US stock for my US$ account. I had heard good things about this stock and also it is in Health Care sector which is a weak sector in Canada. This is one of the few US stocks that I follow.
This is a dividend growth company with moderate dividends and moderate dividend growth. The current dividend is 2.05% and the 5 year median dividend is 2.11%. The dividend growth for the past 5 and 10 years is at 11.1% and 14.6% per year.
However the historical median dividend is quite low at 0.72%. Until 2008 the dividends on this stock was below 1%. At that time also the dividend growth was higher. From 1991 to 2008 the median dividend growth was just over 17% with the 10 year median growth around 16%. The dividend high is close to 3% and this was reached around 2009/2010.
I have records on this stock back to 1991 and they have raised their dividends every year since then. So if I was looking for a dividend growth US stock, especially one in health care, I would consider this stock.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for the financial year ending in April 2016 is 61%. This is a little high, but it is also high for this Medtronic. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 37%. This is a good payout. The DPR for CFPS is 33.7% and its 5 year median is 23.6%.
The outstanding shares have been increasing by 5.5% and 1.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. When you look for the company's growth it is best to look at per share growth. For example, Revenue has grown at 12.6% and 9.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 6.7% and 7.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
This company has very good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for the financial year ending in April 2016 is 3.29, with a 5 year median at 3.36. The Debt Ratio for the financial year ending in April 2016 is 2.09 with a 5 year median at 2.07. The Leverage (A/BK) and Debt/Equity Ratios for the financial year ending in April 2016 is 1.92 and 0.92 respectively with 5 year median values at 1.92 and 0.92 respectively.
Canadian investors are not only affected by how well a US stock does but also by the Canadian/US currency exchange rate. Over the past 3 years, the 5 year total return on this stock for Canadians is positive at 13.18%, 17.37% and 23.48% respectively in total returns per year. However, prior to the financial year of April 2014, Canadian investors would have had a negative 5 year return over a 9 year period.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.45, 18.04 and 20.63. The corresponding 5 year values are 14.04, 19.10 and 21.58. The corresponding historical values are much higher at 20.06, 25.98 and 31.72. The higher P/E Ratios correspond with the lower dividend yields prior to 2009. The current P/E Ratio is 24.90 based on a stock price of $83.91 and 2017 EPS estimate of $3.37. Based on the last 10 years of data, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. If you look at historical data, the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $52.52. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.19, 1.51 and 1.73. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.60 based on a stock price of $83.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.62. The current P/B Ratio is 2.31 based on BVPS of $36.38 and a stock price of $83.91. The current P/B Ratio is some 12% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get an historical dividend yield of 0.72%. The current dividend yield is 2.05% based on dividends of $1.72 and a stock price of $83.91. The current dividend is some 185% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price relatively cheap.
If you look at the median dividend yield for the last 5 and 10 years they are at 2.11% and 2.08%. In comparison with the yields for the last 5 and 10 years, the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $94.63. This implies a total return of 14.83% with 12.78% from capital gains and 2.05% from dividends.
Jessica Moore at Cerbat Gem talks about buys and sells by institutions in this stock. For example, Boston Private Wealth LLC decreased its position in Medtronic PLC by 3.4% during the second quarter. Al Bentley at Simply Wall Street looks at the intrinsic value of this stock and finds it 9% undervalued. Sara Cox at Review Fortune looks at how analysts are rating this stock. She looked at 26 analysts who collectively have a Hold rating on this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Stefanie Kammerman... learn more and I will write about Money Show 2016 - Scott Hanson... learn more on Tuesday, October 25, 2016 around 5 pm.
Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic PLC.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). In 2009 I was looking for a good US stock for my US$ account. I had heard good things about this stock and also it is in Health Care sector which is a weak sector in Canada. This is one of the few US stocks that I follow.
This is a dividend growth company with moderate dividends and moderate dividend growth. The current dividend is 2.05% and the 5 year median dividend is 2.11%. The dividend growth for the past 5 and 10 years is at 11.1% and 14.6% per year.
However the historical median dividend is quite low at 0.72%. Until 2008 the dividends on this stock was below 1%. At that time also the dividend growth was higher. From 1991 to 2008 the median dividend growth was just over 17% with the 10 year median growth around 16%. The dividend high is close to 3% and this was reached around 2009/2010.
I have records on this stock back to 1991 and they have raised their dividends every year since then. So if I was looking for a dividend growth US stock, especially one in health care, I would consider this stock.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for the financial year ending in April 2016 is 61%. This is a little high, but it is also high for this Medtronic. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 37%. This is a good payout. The DPR for CFPS is 33.7% and its 5 year median is 23.6%.
The outstanding shares have been increasing by 5.5% and 1.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. When you look for the company's growth it is best to look at per share growth. For example, Revenue has grown at 12.6% and 9.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 6.7% and 7.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
This company has very good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for the financial year ending in April 2016 is 3.29, with a 5 year median at 3.36. The Debt Ratio for the financial year ending in April 2016 is 2.09 with a 5 year median at 2.07. The Leverage (A/BK) and Debt/Equity Ratios for the financial year ending in April 2016 is 1.92 and 0.92 respectively with 5 year median values at 1.92 and 0.92 respectively.
Canadian investors are not only affected by how well a US stock does but also by the Canadian/US currency exchange rate. Over the past 3 years, the 5 year total return on this stock for Canadians is positive at 13.18%, 17.37% and 23.48% respectively in total returns per year. However, prior to the financial year of April 2014, Canadian investors would have had a negative 5 year return over a 9 year period.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.45, 18.04 and 20.63. The corresponding 5 year values are 14.04, 19.10 and 21.58. The corresponding historical values are much higher at 20.06, 25.98 and 31.72. The higher P/E Ratios correspond with the lower dividend yields prior to 2009. The current P/E Ratio is 24.90 based on a stock price of $83.91 and 2017 EPS estimate of $3.37. Based on the last 10 years of data, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. If you look at historical data, the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $52.52. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.19, 1.51 and 1.73. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.60 based on a stock price of $83.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.62. The current P/B Ratio is 2.31 based on BVPS of $36.38 and a stock price of $83.91. The current P/B Ratio is some 12% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get an historical dividend yield of 0.72%. The current dividend yield is 2.05% based on dividends of $1.72 and a stock price of $83.91. The current dividend is some 185% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price relatively cheap.
If you look at the median dividend yield for the last 5 and 10 years they are at 2.11% and 2.08%. In comparison with the yields for the last 5 and 10 years, the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $94.63. This implies a total return of 14.83% with 12.78% from capital gains and 2.05% from dividends.
Jessica Moore at Cerbat Gem talks about buys and sells by institutions in this stock. For example, Boston Private Wealth LLC decreased its position in Medtronic PLC by 3.4% during the second quarter. Al Bentley at Simply Wall Street looks at the intrinsic value of this stock and finds it 9% undervalued. Sara Cox at Review Fortune looks at how analysts are rating this stock. She looked at 26 analysts who collectively have a Hold rating on this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Stefanie Kammerman... learn more and I will write about Money Show 2016 - Scott Hanson... learn more on Tuesday, October 25, 2016 around 5 pm.
Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic PLC.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, October 21, 2016
Canadian Pacific Railway
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably expensive. I think that this stock is a bit expensive. Stocks can remain overpriced for some time just like sectors can. There was a huge sell-off of shares last year toping some $774M. However, this could all be Ackman who sold off his shares last year and ceased being a director. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Pacific Railway.
I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP), but I used to. It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and chose CN as my railway stock. I am following this stock because it is a dividend growth stock. It is one that was on Mike Higgs' list.
Dividends on this stock are low and the increases are moderate. The current dividend is just 1.03% and it has an historical median dividend of 1.50%. The dividend on this stock has often been below 1% lately. The dividend increases over the past 5 and 10 years was at 6.2% and 9.2%. The last dividend increase was in 2016 and was for 42.9%. However, this was after two years of flat dividends.
The Dividend Payout Ratio was 16.7% in 2016 and the 5 year median DPR is 28%. The DPR for CFPS was 9% in 2015 and the 5 year median was 12.3%. It would seem to me that it can afford it dividends. Earnings are a bit volatile with growth over the past 5 and 10 years at 16.95 and 9.5% per year. However, if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years, growth is at 4.3% and 7.2% per year. This is because there was a sharp increase in earnings in 2014.
Dividend growth was not bad in the past. If you held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years, your current dividend yield on your original purchase if at a median price would be 3%, 3.2% and 6.1%. Going into the future, if the 6% increase holds and you purchased this stock today at $193.39 then you could be earning in 5, 10 or 15 years 1.4%, 1.95 or 2.5% dividend yield.
If you increase the dividend growth to 11.9% to take into account the most recent growth then in 5, 10 or 15 years you might be earning on your current purchase price 1.8%, 3.18 or 5.6% dividend yield. If you use the 10 year growth, which is quite possible to go back to, in 5, 10 or 15 years' time you could be earnings on current purchase price 1.6%, 2.5% or 3.6%. Problem with low yields and moderate growth is that it takes a long time to get high yields.
The outstanding shares have been declining. Over the past 5 and 10 years shares have declined by 2% and 0.3%. Therefore you should look at things like Revenue rather than Revenue per Share. Revenue has grown over the past 5 and 10 years by 6.1% and 4.5%. Revenue per Share has grown by 8.3% and 5.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.13, 24.52 and 28.92. The 10 year corresponding values are a lot lower at 13.45, 16.23 and 19.69. The historical values are closer but lower than the 10 year ones at 11.29, 13.64 and 15.98. The current P/E Ratio is 16.39 based on a stock price of $193.39 and 2016 EPS estimate of 11.80. Since the 12 month EPS to the end of the third quarter is $10.10, this estimate seems reasonable. If we use the 10 year values then this testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.
I get at Graham price of $90.01. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.02, 1.22 and 1.43. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.15 based on a stock price of $193.39. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.10. The current P/B ratio is 6.34 based on BVPS of $30.52 and a stock price of $193.39. The current P/B Ratio is some 202% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median Dividend Yield (which covers 14 years) is 1.50%. The current dividend yield is 1.03% based on a stock price of $193.39 and a dividend of $2.00. The current dividend yield is some 31% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Note that the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.03% which is today's. There are many analysts that feel that the whole stock market is priced rather high. Dividend yields started to trend lower in 2012 for this stock. Part of this was higher stock prices but the other factor was a flat dividend.
The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 2.24. The current P/S Ratio is 4.59 based on 2016 Revenue of $6484M and Revenue per Share of $42.16. The current P/S Ratio is some 104% higher than the 10 year median value. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $213.23. This implies a total return of 11.29% with 10.26% from capital gains and 1.03% from dividends with a current stock price of $193.39.
There is a recent article by Kristine Owram in the Financial Post about Ackman's investment in CP. According to Giuseppe Valiante of The Canadian Press in an article on CTV News, CP is directly responsible for damages caused by the derailment in 2013 in Lac-Megantic. Ryan Vanzo of Motley Fool asks if this stock has peaked and answers that he thinks not. However, he does like CNR better. See what analysts think at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Kombat Copper Inc. (TSX-KBT, OTC-PNTZF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT)... learn more on Monday, October 24, 2016 around 5 pm.
This company is a transcontinental railway operating in Canada and the U.S. Its rail network serves the principal centers of Canada, from Montreal to Vancouver and the U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions Alliances with other carriers extend its market reach throughout the U.S. and into Mexico. Canadian Pacific Solutions provides logistics and supply chain expertise. Its web site is here Canadian Pacific Railway.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP), but I used to. It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and chose CN as my railway stock. I am following this stock because it is a dividend growth stock. It is one that was on Mike Higgs' list.
Dividends on this stock are low and the increases are moderate. The current dividend is just 1.03% and it has an historical median dividend of 1.50%. The dividend on this stock has often been below 1% lately. The dividend increases over the past 5 and 10 years was at 6.2% and 9.2%. The last dividend increase was in 2016 and was for 42.9%. However, this was after two years of flat dividends.
The Dividend Payout Ratio was 16.7% in 2016 and the 5 year median DPR is 28%. The DPR for CFPS was 9% in 2015 and the 5 year median was 12.3%. It would seem to me that it can afford it dividends. Earnings are a bit volatile with growth over the past 5 and 10 years at 16.95 and 9.5% per year. However, if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years, growth is at 4.3% and 7.2% per year. This is because there was a sharp increase in earnings in 2014.
Dividend growth was not bad in the past. If you held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years, your current dividend yield on your original purchase if at a median price would be 3%, 3.2% and 6.1%. Going into the future, if the 6% increase holds and you purchased this stock today at $193.39 then you could be earning in 5, 10 or 15 years 1.4%, 1.95 or 2.5% dividend yield.
If you increase the dividend growth to 11.9% to take into account the most recent growth then in 5, 10 or 15 years you might be earning on your current purchase price 1.8%, 3.18 or 5.6% dividend yield. If you use the 10 year growth, which is quite possible to go back to, in 5, 10 or 15 years' time you could be earnings on current purchase price 1.6%, 2.5% or 3.6%. Problem with low yields and moderate growth is that it takes a long time to get high yields.
The outstanding shares have been declining. Over the past 5 and 10 years shares have declined by 2% and 0.3%. Therefore you should look at things like Revenue rather than Revenue per Share. Revenue has grown over the past 5 and 10 years by 6.1% and 4.5%. Revenue per Share has grown by 8.3% and 5.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.13, 24.52 and 28.92. The 10 year corresponding values are a lot lower at 13.45, 16.23 and 19.69. The historical values are closer but lower than the 10 year ones at 11.29, 13.64 and 15.98. The current P/E Ratio is 16.39 based on a stock price of $193.39 and 2016 EPS estimate of 11.80. Since the 12 month EPS to the end of the third quarter is $10.10, this estimate seems reasonable. If we use the 10 year values then this testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.
I get at Graham price of $90.01. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.02, 1.22 and 1.43. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.15 based on a stock price of $193.39. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.10. The current P/B ratio is 6.34 based on BVPS of $30.52 and a stock price of $193.39. The current P/B Ratio is some 202% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median Dividend Yield (which covers 14 years) is 1.50%. The current dividend yield is 1.03% based on a stock price of $193.39 and a dividend of $2.00. The current dividend yield is some 31% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Note that the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.03% which is today's. There are many analysts that feel that the whole stock market is priced rather high. Dividend yields started to trend lower in 2012 for this stock. Part of this was higher stock prices but the other factor was a flat dividend.
The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 2.24. The current P/S Ratio is 4.59 based on 2016 Revenue of $6484M and Revenue per Share of $42.16. The current P/S Ratio is some 104% higher than the 10 year median value. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $213.23. This implies a total return of 11.29% with 10.26% from capital gains and 1.03% from dividends with a current stock price of $193.39.
There is a recent article by Kristine Owram in the Financial Post about Ackman's investment in CP. According to Giuseppe Valiante of The Canadian Press in an article on CTV News, CP is directly responsible for damages caused by the derailment in 2013 in Lac-Megantic. Ryan Vanzo of Motley Fool asks if this stock has peaked and answers that he thinks not. However, he does like CNR better. See what analysts think at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Kombat Copper Inc. (TSX-KBT, OTC-PNTZF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT)... learn more on Monday, October 24, 2016 around 5 pm.
This company is a transcontinental railway operating in Canada and the U.S. Its rail network serves the principal centers of Canada, from Montreal to Vancouver and the U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions Alliances with other carriers extend its market reach throughout the U.S. and into Mexico. Canadian Pacific Solutions provides logistics and supply chain expertise. Its web site is here Canadian Pacific Railway.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Kombat Copper Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Following for fun. See my spreadsheet on Kombat Copper Inc.
I own this stock of Kombat Copper Inc. (TSX-KBT, OTC-PNTZF). I originally brought this stock in 2000 as Tathacus Resources Ltd. because it was doing interesting things. It was part of a basket of small caps that I was buying at that time. There was a reverse takeover (RTO) of this company on April 28, 2011 by Pan Terra Industries Inc. Symbol PNT. On May 2, 2012 there was a name change from Pan Terra Industries (PNT) to Kombat Copper Inc. (KBT).
I am keeping this stock as I am curious about what will happen to it and also because my stake in this company is worth less than the fees to sell it. Someone must think that there is some life in this stock as they just make a private place of 3.3M shares. See the news release of June 2016 .
I have no idea if company will ever amount to anything. Probably my shares will be so depleted that I may not gain anything. The company has no revenue and who know when it will get any. There is no analyst following this stock as far as I can see. I am just along for the ride. I really do not know what else to say.
This Press Release talks about Routemaster Capital Inc. appointing Mr. Theron the CEO of Kombat Copper as a director. They say he has extensive management and board experience within the mining industry. The market wire release from Aberdeen International Inc. (TSX-AAB) says that they hold 9,205,000 common shares and 10,000,000 share purchase warrants in Kombat Copper Inc.. There was a Press Release from the company in September 2016 stating what it plans to do in 2016 and 2017.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP)... learn more on Friday, October 21, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Mike Larson... learn more on Thursday, October 20, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the Dr. Susan Love's Breast Book learn more...
Kombat Copper Inc. is a publicly traded Canadian exploration and development company. Its core operations are focused on copper resources in Namibia, one of the world's most prospective copper regions, where they have substantial assets in place. Its web site is here Kombat Copper Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Kombat Copper Inc. (TSX-KBT, OTC-PNTZF). I originally brought this stock in 2000 as Tathacus Resources Ltd. because it was doing interesting things. It was part of a basket of small caps that I was buying at that time. There was a reverse takeover (RTO) of this company on April 28, 2011 by Pan Terra Industries Inc. Symbol PNT. On May 2, 2012 there was a name change from Pan Terra Industries (PNT) to Kombat Copper Inc. (KBT).
I am keeping this stock as I am curious about what will happen to it and also because my stake in this company is worth less than the fees to sell it. Someone must think that there is some life in this stock as they just make a private place of 3.3M shares. See the news release of June 2016 .
I have no idea if company will ever amount to anything. Probably my shares will be so depleted that I may not gain anything. The company has no revenue and who know when it will get any. There is no analyst following this stock as far as I can see. I am just along for the ride. I really do not know what else to say.
This Press Release talks about Routemaster Capital Inc. appointing Mr. Theron the CEO of Kombat Copper as a director. They say he has extensive management and board experience within the mining industry. The market wire release from Aberdeen International Inc. (TSX-AAB) says that they hold 9,205,000 common shares and 10,000,000 share purchase warrants in Kombat Copper Inc.. There was a Press Release from the company in September 2016 stating what it plans to do in 2016 and 2017.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP)... learn more on Friday, October 21, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Mike Larson... learn more on Thursday, October 20, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the Dr. Susan Love's Breast Book learn more...
Kombat Copper Inc. is a publicly traded Canadian exploration and development company. Its core operations are focused on copper resources in Namibia, one of the world's most prospective copper regions, where they have substantial assets in place. Its web site is here Kombat Copper Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, October 17, 2016
Teck Resources Ltd
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price probably good. I would never buy a resource stock such a Teck for the long term. However, there is often money to be made in the short term when they cut their dividends. Buying now you might be a bit late to the party, but there may be still profits to be made. The real time to buy is when they announce a dividend cut. See my spreadsheet on Teck Resources Ltd.
I do not own this stock of Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK), but I have in the past. The time to buy this stock is when it cuts its dividend. For example, I bought this stock in 2008 and sold in 2009. I bought this stock because the company purchased Fording Canadian Coal Trust at exactly the wrong time and got into financial difficulties and the stock price dropped off a cliff as they had to cut dividends. When the stock recovered somewhat in 2009, I sold for a profit.
The usual reason you are given to buy resource stocks is for diversification. I disagree. I know that resource stocks take up a large portion of the TSX, but they are volatile and not consistent dividend payers. I track some resources because they are part of the TSX and I like to know what is going on in resource stocks. However, I never consider them a long term investment. I buy them after dividends cuts and ride to some highs, but I never look at any resource stock as a permanent part of my portfolio.
This company again cut their dividends in 2015 and again in 2016. Because of this the stock price has been declining. In fact it has been declining since 2012. After the declared dividend cut in December 2015, the stock price (as usual) started to pick up. The stock price so far this year is up by some 379% based on a current price of $25.58.
The company has a long history of paying dividends. However, the dividends are not steady. Dividends can be cut or suspended as well as increased. For stocks you should be buying low and selling high. The best time to buy this stock is when they cut their dividends or better when they announce a dividend cut.
Analysts seem to expect this stock to start picking up this year or next. It is obvious the market expects better with this company because of the run up of the stock price this year.
One important point is the debt ratios and they are fairly good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 was 2.78 and the 5 year median is also 2.78. The Debt Ratio for 2015 was 1.92 and the 5 year median is 2.08. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 was 2.08 and 1.08 with the 5 year median values at 1.92 and 0.92 respectively. Good dividend ratios can see a company through the bad times.
This company often has cash on hand. The median cash per share over the past 5 year is $4.81. At the end of 2015 they had cash on hand of $3.27 per share. At the end of the second quarter of 2016 they had $2.21 on hand which is 8.9% of the stock price.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.76, 17.78 and 22.80. The corresponding 10 year values are 7.89, 13.19 and 16.98. The corresponding historical values are 9.64, 14.66 and 19.68. We should probably be paying attention to the longer term values in this testing. The current P/E Ratio is 26.93 based on a stock price of $25.58 and 2016 EPS of $0.95. The P/E Ratios move to 23.05 and 20.63 for 2016 and 2017 based on EPS of $1.11 and 1.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $24.63. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.60, 0.92 and 1.26. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.04 based on a stock price of $25.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.20. The current P/B Ratio is 0.90 a values some 24.7% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $28.39 and a stock price of $25.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year P/S Ratio of 1.97. The current P/S Ratio is 1.80 based on Revenue estimate for 2016 of $8.187M, Revenue per Share of $14.21 and a stock price of $25.58. The current P/S Ratio is some 8.6% lower than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
When trying to judge a stock price, the P/E Ratio is in a lot of cases not the best measure. I personally like the dividend yield test the best, but it is not a great one for this case because dividends go down as well as up. The next best way is the P/B Ratio where you are not using estimates. The P/S Ratio testing is not bad because analysts often hit what the revenue will be when they do not hit where earnings will be.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell. That is they are all over the place. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $22.10. Based on a currently price of $25.58, this implies a total loss of 10.86% with a capital loss of 11.26% and dividends of 0.39%.
Jonathan Ratner in this article in the Financial Post talks about RBC Capital Markets upgrading this stock to an Outperform (Buy) because of strength in coking coal prices and potential upside from zinc. Andrew Walker of Motley Fool likes this stock and thinks the price will go to $40. See what analysts are saying at Stock Chase .
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was HNZ Group Inc. (TSX-HNZ, OTC- CDHPF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Kombat Copper Inc. (TSX-KBT, OTC-PNTZF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 19, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Peter Schiff... learn more on Tuesday, October 18, 2016 around 5 pm.
Teck is a diversified resource company involved in mining and mineral development with major business units focused on copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, gold and energy. This company has interests in several oil sands developments. The company explores for resources in the Americas, the Asia Pacific Region, Europe and Africa. Its web site is here Teck Resources Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK), but I have in the past. The time to buy this stock is when it cuts its dividend. For example, I bought this stock in 2008 and sold in 2009. I bought this stock because the company purchased Fording Canadian Coal Trust at exactly the wrong time and got into financial difficulties and the stock price dropped off a cliff as they had to cut dividends. When the stock recovered somewhat in 2009, I sold for a profit.
The usual reason you are given to buy resource stocks is for diversification. I disagree. I know that resource stocks take up a large portion of the TSX, but they are volatile and not consistent dividend payers. I track some resources because they are part of the TSX and I like to know what is going on in resource stocks. However, I never consider them a long term investment. I buy them after dividends cuts and ride to some highs, but I never look at any resource stock as a permanent part of my portfolio.
This company again cut their dividends in 2015 and again in 2016. Because of this the stock price has been declining. In fact it has been declining since 2012. After the declared dividend cut in December 2015, the stock price (as usual) started to pick up. The stock price so far this year is up by some 379% based on a current price of $25.58.
The company has a long history of paying dividends. However, the dividends are not steady. Dividends can be cut or suspended as well as increased. For stocks you should be buying low and selling high. The best time to buy this stock is when they cut their dividends or better when they announce a dividend cut.
Analysts seem to expect this stock to start picking up this year or next. It is obvious the market expects better with this company because of the run up of the stock price this year.
One important point is the debt ratios and they are fairly good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 was 2.78 and the 5 year median is also 2.78. The Debt Ratio for 2015 was 1.92 and the 5 year median is 2.08. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 was 2.08 and 1.08 with the 5 year median values at 1.92 and 0.92 respectively. Good dividend ratios can see a company through the bad times.
This company often has cash on hand. The median cash per share over the past 5 year is $4.81. At the end of 2015 they had cash on hand of $3.27 per share. At the end of the second quarter of 2016 they had $2.21 on hand which is 8.9% of the stock price.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.76, 17.78 and 22.80. The corresponding 10 year values are 7.89, 13.19 and 16.98. The corresponding historical values are 9.64, 14.66 and 19.68. We should probably be paying attention to the longer term values in this testing. The current P/E Ratio is 26.93 based on a stock price of $25.58 and 2016 EPS of $0.95. The P/E Ratios move to 23.05 and 20.63 for 2016 and 2017 based on EPS of $1.11 and 1.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $24.63. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.60, 0.92 and 1.26. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.04 based on a stock price of $25.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.20. The current P/B Ratio is 0.90 a values some 24.7% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $28.39 and a stock price of $25.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year P/S Ratio of 1.97. The current P/S Ratio is 1.80 based on Revenue estimate for 2016 of $8.187M, Revenue per Share of $14.21 and a stock price of $25.58. The current P/S Ratio is some 8.6% lower than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
When trying to judge a stock price, the P/E Ratio is in a lot of cases not the best measure. I personally like the dividend yield test the best, but it is not a great one for this case because dividends go down as well as up. The next best way is the P/B Ratio where you are not using estimates. The P/S Ratio testing is not bad because analysts often hit what the revenue will be when they do not hit where earnings will be.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell. That is they are all over the place. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $22.10. Based on a currently price of $25.58, this implies a total loss of 10.86% with a capital loss of 11.26% and dividends of 0.39%.
Jonathan Ratner in this article in the Financial Post talks about RBC Capital Markets upgrading this stock to an Outperform (Buy) because of strength in coking coal prices and potential upside from zinc. Andrew Walker of Motley Fool likes this stock and thinks the price will go to $40. See what analysts are saying at Stock Chase .
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was HNZ Group Inc. (TSX-HNZ, OTC- CDHPF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Kombat Copper Inc. (TSX-KBT, OTC-PNTZF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 19, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Peter Schiff... learn more on Tuesday, October 18, 2016 around 5 pm.
Teck is a diversified resource company involved in mining and mineral development with major business units focused on copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, gold and energy. This company has interests in several oil sands developments. The company explores for resources in the Americas, the Asia Pacific Region, Europe and Africa. Its web site is here Teck Resources Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)