On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and Peter Hodson learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is cheap to reasonable, but risky. A strong balance sheet shows a company that can survive in the bad times. It is bad times for the oil and gas industry that this company services. With the problem of low oil and gas prices comes risk. See my spreadsheet on Pason Systems Inc.
I do not own this stock of Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF). I read a report on this stock in the Buy and Sell Advisor in September 2013. I had not heard of this dividend growth company before so I decided to investigate it.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.89, 28.59 and 33.30. The corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios are 16.11, 20.46 and 25.16. The 10 year value seem more reasonable to me. The historical median P/E Ratio is 19.64. The current P/E Ratio is 240.50. This is based on a stock price of $19.24 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.08.
If you base current P/E Ratio on last 12 month earnings you get a P/E Ratio of 20.69. However, I like using the estimates because the stock market is really based on what people think will happen. The conclusion I come to is that you really cannot use P/E Ratios to price this stock at the present time. There is also a problem with using the Graham Price as this equation uses EPS.
One test I do like is the Price/Book Value per Share Ratio test. The 10 year P/B Ratio is 3.87 and the current P/B Ratio is 3.20 a value some 17% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $6.02 and a stock price of $19.24.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.50%. The current dividend yield is 3.53% based on a stock price of $19.24 and dividends of $0.68. The current dividend yield is some 41.6% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield. The historical dividend yield is 2.17% and the current dividend yield is some 63% higher. This all suggests that the current stock price is reasonable and way below the relative median price.
The historical high dividend yield is 3.81%. The current dividend yield at 3.53% is just 7% off this yield. This also suggests a stock that is getting cheap.
This is about all the testing I can do. Both revenue and cash flow is dropping for 2015, so it would appear that 2015 will not be a good year for this company. Analysts expect some improvement in 2016. The problem is, of course, this company services the oil and gas industry.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $21.00. This implies a total return of 12.68% with 3.535 from dividends and 9.15% from capital gains.
The article by Brenda Bouw in the Globe and Mail talks about this companies good dividend and strong balance sheet. It also discusses the problem they have because of the drop in the oil and gas industry. This article on Octa Finance talks about some target price drop by Altacorp Capital. This article in the Calgary Herald talks about job cuts at Pason Systems.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, November 4, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Pason is the leading global provider of specialized data management systems for drilling rigs. Their solutions, which include data acquisition, well-site reporting, remote communications, and web-based information management, enable collaboration between the rig and the office. Its web site is here Pason Systems Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Pason Systems Inc.
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for November 2015 learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Dividend Growth Stock. The grouping of Industrial covers a lot of territory. This company services the oil and gas industry so it is not a surprise it is having some problems. So far it has been a good dividend growth stock. See my spreadsheet on Pason Systems Inc.
I do not own this stock of Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF). I read a report on this stock in the Buy and Sell Advisor in September 2013. I had not heard of this dividend growth company before so I decided to investigate it.
The dividend on this stock is moderate and the dividend increases are good. The current dividend yield is 3.53%. This is not quite as high as it has gotten before, but it is close. The 5 year dividend yield is 2.50% and the historical median is 2.17. (Dividends have been paid since 2003.) The dividend growth is good at 20.5% and 26.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Generally, the Dividend Payout Ratio has been fine although earnings and cash flow can be a bit volatile. The DPR for 2014 for EPS is 45% and for CFPS is 33.7%. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 68% and for CFPS is 23%. This hides some high DPRs. For example, the DPR for EPS for 2013 was 217% and it is expected to be 850% for 2015.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.5% and 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Shares have increased due to Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. The growth in Revenue is good as is the growth in EPS. However, the reason that the 5 year growth rates are good is that 5 years ago was a tough year for this company. The 5 year running averages over the past 5 years for EPS and Cash Flow are low for EPS and negative for Cash Flow.
Revenue is up by 27.9% and 15.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per share is up by 27.3% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts do not expect 2015 to be a good year for this company. The company is in the business of servicing the oil and gas industry after all. Analysts expect Revenues to drop by some 42%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, revenue is down by 14%.
Earnings are up by 11.8% per year over the past 10 years or by 206% in total. I do not have growth for the past 5 years as EPS 5 years ago were negative. However, the total growth over the past 5 years is 2014%. If you look at 5 year running averages, EPS has grown by 5% over the past 5 years.
Analysts expect EPS for 2015 to be down by 94% to just $0.08. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, revenue is down by 30.6%. They expect 2016 to be better, but EPS to be just $0.48 which is still some 64% below 2014 EPS of $1.34.
Cash Flow has grown at 40.2% and 15.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown by 39.6% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, CFPS is down by 6.6% per year over the past 5 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to decline by 59% in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, revenue is down by 8.2%.
The debt ratios have always been good for this company. However, the debt ratios are good for 2014 and extremely good for the second quarter of 2015. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is 4.08 and for the second quarter of 2015 it is 9.57. The Debt Ratio for 2015 is 6.59 and for the second quarter of 2015 it is 11.56. For these ratios I like them to be at 1.50 or higher.
The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.18 and 0.18 for 2014 and for the second quarter of 2015 are 1.09 and 0.09.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% once in the past 5 years and twice in the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 is 23.2% and the 5 year median is 11.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income is 28.3% for 2014 and it has a 10 years median of 10.9%. So the ROE on comprehensive income basically confirms the ROE on Net Income and suggests earnings are of a good quality.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, November 5, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Pason is the leading global provider of specialized data management systems for drilling rigs. Their solutions, which include data acquisition, well-site reporting, remote communications, and web-based information management, enable collaboration between the rig and the office. Its web site is here Pason Systems Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Dividend Growth Stock. The grouping of Industrial covers a lot of territory. This company services the oil and gas industry so it is not a surprise it is having some problems. So far it has been a good dividend growth stock. See my spreadsheet on Pason Systems Inc.
I do not own this stock of Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF). I read a report on this stock in the Buy and Sell Advisor in September 2013. I had not heard of this dividend growth company before so I decided to investigate it.
The dividend on this stock is moderate and the dividend increases are good. The current dividend yield is 3.53%. This is not quite as high as it has gotten before, but it is close. The 5 year dividend yield is 2.50% and the historical median is 2.17. (Dividends have been paid since 2003.) The dividend growth is good at 20.5% and 26.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Generally, the Dividend Payout Ratio has been fine although earnings and cash flow can be a bit volatile. The DPR for 2014 for EPS is 45% and for CFPS is 33.7%. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 68% and for CFPS is 23%. This hides some high DPRs. For example, the DPR for EPS for 2013 was 217% and it is expected to be 850% for 2015.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.5% and 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Shares have increased due to Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. The growth in Revenue is good as is the growth in EPS. However, the reason that the 5 year growth rates are good is that 5 years ago was a tough year for this company. The 5 year running averages over the past 5 years for EPS and Cash Flow are low for EPS and negative for Cash Flow.
Revenue is up by 27.9% and 15.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per share is up by 27.3% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts do not expect 2015 to be a good year for this company. The company is in the business of servicing the oil and gas industry after all. Analysts expect Revenues to drop by some 42%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, revenue is down by 14%.
Earnings are up by 11.8% per year over the past 10 years or by 206% in total. I do not have growth for the past 5 years as EPS 5 years ago were negative. However, the total growth over the past 5 years is 2014%. If you look at 5 year running averages, EPS has grown by 5% over the past 5 years.
Analysts expect EPS for 2015 to be down by 94% to just $0.08. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, revenue is down by 30.6%. They expect 2016 to be better, but EPS to be just $0.48 which is still some 64% below 2014 EPS of $1.34.
Cash Flow has grown at 40.2% and 15.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown by 39.6% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, CFPS is down by 6.6% per year over the past 5 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to decline by 59% in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, revenue is down by 8.2%.
The debt ratios have always been good for this company. However, the debt ratios are good for 2014 and extremely good for the second quarter of 2015. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is 4.08 and for the second quarter of 2015 it is 9.57. The Debt Ratio for 2015 is 6.59 and for the second quarter of 2015 it is 11.56. For these ratios I like them to be at 1.50 or higher.
The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.18 and 0.18 for 2014 and for the second quarter of 2015 are 1.09 and 0.09.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% once in the past 5 years and twice in the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 is 23.2% and the 5 year median is 11.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income is 28.3% for 2014 and it has a 10 years median of 10.9%. So the ROE on comprehensive income basically confirms the ROE on Net Income and suggests earnings are of a good quality.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, November 5, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Pason is the leading global provider of specialized data management systems for drilling rigs. Their solutions, which include data acquisition, well-site reporting, remote communications, and web-based information management, enable collaboration between the rig and the office. Its web site is here Pason Systems Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
The North West Company 2
On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and Andrew Busch learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is reasonable to expensive. This company has done well. A positive is lots of insider buying. See my spreadsheet on The North West Company.
I do not own this stock of The North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the Money Show of 2009. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Income Trust being currently good buys with very good yields. This stock changed from an income trust to a corporation in 2011.
There is not much in the way of insider ownership. However, looking at insider trading, I see there is a small amount of insider selling but a much larger amount of net insider buying at 0.17% of market cap. This is when most insider trading accounts for around 0.01% to 0.02% of market cap.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.45, 17.18 and 18.91. The corresponding 10 year values are lower at 11.29, 13.70 and 16.92. The historical median P/E Ratio is 12.20. The current P/E Ratio is 17.59 based on a stock price of $26.56 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price could be reasonable, but above the relative median using 5 year values, but using longer term values it is expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $15.39. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.19, 1.43 and 1.68. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.73 based on a stock price of $26.56. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.34. The current P/B Ratio is 3.81 based on a stock price of $26.56 and BVPS of $6.97. The current P/B Ratio is some 14% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the relative median.
The current dividend yield is 4.67% based on a stock price of $26.56 and dividends of $1.24. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.82%, a value some 3% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield. This suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the relative median.
The current dividend yield is within the 4 to 5% range that old income trusts are expected to be. Testing using historical dividend yields are not valid because dividend yields are lower on corporations that income trust companies.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $29.00. This implies a total return of 13.86% with 4.67% from dividends and 9.19% from capital gains. (I was recently to the Money Show in Toronto and there were a few speakers who said investors should totally ignore consensus stock prices. This had not happened at other Money Shows.)
In this article in the Winnipeg Free Press, Murray McNeill talks about The North West Company's plan for expansion of Giant Tiger stores in Western Canada. In this Motley Fool article, Joseph Solitro talks about three small caps he likes including The North West Company. The company is talked about on Stock Chase by a few analysts.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, November 2, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
The North West Company is a leading retailer of food and everyday products and services to rural communities and urban neighborhoods in Canada, Alaska, the South Pacific and the Caribbean. North West operates 225 stores under the trading names Northern, NorthMart, Giant Tiger, AC Value Center, and Cost-U-Less. Its web site is here The North West Company.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is reasonable to expensive. This company has done well. A positive is lots of insider buying. See my spreadsheet on The North West Company.
I do not own this stock of The North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the Money Show of 2009. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Income Trust being currently good buys with very good yields. This stock changed from an income trust to a corporation in 2011.
There is not much in the way of insider ownership. However, looking at insider trading, I see there is a small amount of insider selling but a much larger amount of net insider buying at 0.17% of market cap. This is when most insider trading accounts for around 0.01% to 0.02% of market cap.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.45, 17.18 and 18.91. The corresponding 10 year values are lower at 11.29, 13.70 and 16.92. The historical median P/E Ratio is 12.20. The current P/E Ratio is 17.59 based on a stock price of $26.56 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price could be reasonable, but above the relative median using 5 year values, but using longer term values it is expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $15.39. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.19, 1.43 and 1.68. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.73 based on a stock price of $26.56. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.34. The current P/B Ratio is 3.81 based on a stock price of $26.56 and BVPS of $6.97. The current P/B Ratio is some 14% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the relative median.
The current dividend yield is 4.67% based on a stock price of $26.56 and dividends of $1.24. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.82%, a value some 3% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield. This suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the relative median.
The current dividend yield is within the 4 to 5% range that old income trusts are expected to be. Testing using historical dividend yields are not valid because dividend yields are lower on corporations that income trust companies.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $29.00. This implies a total return of 13.86% with 4.67% from dividends and 9.19% from capital gains. (I was recently to the Money Show in Toronto and there were a few speakers who said investors should totally ignore consensus stock prices. This had not happened at other Money Shows.)
In this article in the Winnipeg Free Press, Murray McNeill talks about The North West Company's plan for expansion of Giant Tiger stores in Western Canada. In this Motley Fool article, Joseph Solitro talks about three small caps he likes including The North West Company. The company is talked about on Stock Chase by a few analysts.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, November 2, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
The North West Company is a leading retailer of food and everyday products and services to rural communities and urban neighborhoods in Canada, Alaska, the South Pacific and the Caribbean. North West operates 225 stores under the trading names Northern, NorthMart, Giant Tiger, AC Value Center, and Cost-U-Less. Its web site is here The North West Company.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, November 2, 2015
The North West Company
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for November 2015 learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Consumer staple dividend growth stock. A lot of companies are struggling in this long slow recovery from 2008. However, this stock is giving a decent return and it increases its dividends. This company softened the blow of decreased dividends by giving a special dividend in 2012 at the time of the decrease. See my spreadsheet on The North West Company.
I do not own this stock of The North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the Money Show of 2009. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trust being currently good buys with very good yield. This stock changed from an income trust to a corporation in 2011.
When this company changed to a corporation it reduced the dividends by 30%. Until that time this stock had been raising their dividends and also giving out special dividends. The 10 year dividend growth is 6.8% per year. The three year dividend growth is 6.5% per year. If you look at 5 year growth it is a negative 2.6% per year because of the dividend decrease in 2012.
The dividends are good and the increases as shown above are moderate. The current dividend is 4.67% based on a stock price of $28.86 and dividends of $1.42. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.49%. The historical median dividend yield is 7.09% because yields were higher when the company was an Income Trusts. Dividends are generally higher in Income Trust companies.
If you had held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years and bought the stock at a median price, you could have received dividends that cover 28%, 108% or 383% of your original stock price. If you look at yields over these periods, they would be at 5.9%, 10.9% and 31% currently if you had paid a median price for your stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago. You can win with dividend growth stock because of compounding dividend growth.
Shareholders have done well. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 11.67% and 16.20% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 6.96% and 9.17% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 4.72% and 7.03% per year. Note that going forward the dividend portion of the total return will be less because of lower dividend yields.
The outstanding shares have grown at 0.05% and 0.02% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This growth is attributable to Stock Options. Revenue growth is low to moderate. EPS growth is non-existent to moderate. Cash Flow growth is moderate to good.
Revenue is up by 2.4% and 7.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue growth of 10% in 2016. (The financial year for this stock is January 31 of each year.) If you compare the 12 month period to the end of January 31, 2015 to the 12 month period end of the second quarter, revenue is up by 5.3%. Revenue per Share growth is 2.3% and 7.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
EPS is down by 5.3% and up by 5.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings hit a low in 2012 and have slowly recovering and the earnings for 2015 were some 8.4% higher than in 2012. If you look at 5 year running averages, EPS is up by 0.5% and 6.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Cash Flow has done better with Cash Flow up by 4% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash flow is expected to go down by 18% in 2016. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of January 31, 2015 to the 12 month period end of the second quarter, Cash Flow is up by 3.8%. CFPS is up by 4% and 8.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been above 10% each year of the past 10 years. The ROE for 2015 was 19.1% and it has a 5 year median of 20.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2015 was 18.9% and its 5 year median value was 21%. The ROE on comprehensive income suggests the earnings are of good quality.
Debt ratios are generally good, but the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little higher than what I would like. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.10 and the Debt Ratio is 1.83. I like to see these ratios at 1.50 or above. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.20 and 1.20. I prefer to see these ratios below 2.00 and below 1.00, respectively. However, these ratios are not unusual.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, November 3, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
The North West Company is a leading retailer of food and everyday products and services to rural communities and urban neighborhoods in Canada, Alaska, the South Pacific and the Caribbean. North West operates 225 stores under the trading names Northern, NorthMart, Giant Tiger, AC Value Center, and Cost-U-Less. Its web site is here The North West Company.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Consumer staple dividend growth stock. A lot of companies are struggling in this long slow recovery from 2008. However, this stock is giving a decent return and it increases its dividends. This company softened the blow of decreased dividends by giving a special dividend in 2012 at the time of the decrease. See my spreadsheet on The North West Company.
I do not own this stock of The North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the Money Show of 2009. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trust being currently good buys with very good yield. This stock changed from an income trust to a corporation in 2011.
When this company changed to a corporation it reduced the dividends by 30%. Until that time this stock had been raising their dividends and also giving out special dividends. The 10 year dividend growth is 6.8% per year. The three year dividend growth is 6.5% per year. If you look at 5 year growth it is a negative 2.6% per year because of the dividend decrease in 2012.
The dividends are good and the increases as shown above are moderate. The current dividend is 4.67% based on a stock price of $28.86 and dividends of $1.42. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.49%. The historical median dividend yield is 7.09% because yields were higher when the company was an Income Trusts. Dividends are generally higher in Income Trust companies.
If you had held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years and bought the stock at a median price, you could have received dividends that cover 28%, 108% or 383% of your original stock price. If you look at yields over these periods, they would be at 5.9%, 10.9% and 31% currently if you had paid a median price for your stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago. You can win with dividend growth stock because of compounding dividend growth.
Shareholders have done well. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 11.67% and 16.20% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 6.96% and 9.17% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 4.72% and 7.03% per year. Note that going forward the dividend portion of the total return will be less because of lower dividend yields.
The outstanding shares have grown at 0.05% and 0.02% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This growth is attributable to Stock Options. Revenue growth is low to moderate. EPS growth is non-existent to moderate. Cash Flow growth is moderate to good.
Revenue is up by 2.4% and 7.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue growth of 10% in 2016. (The financial year for this stock is January 31 of each year.) If you compare the 12 month period to the end of January 31, 2015 to the 12 month period end of the second quarter, revenue is up by 5.3%. Revenue per Share growth is 2.3% and 7.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
EPS is down by 5.3% and up by 5.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings hit a low in 2012 and have slowly recovering and the earnings for 2015 were some 8.4% higher than in 2012. If you look at 5 year running averages, EPS is up by 0.5% and 6.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Cash Flow has done better with Cash Flow up by 4% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash flow is expected to go down by 18% in 2016. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of January 31, 2015 to the 12 month period end of the second quarter, Cash Flow is up by 3.8%. CFPS is up by 4% and 8.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been above 10% each year of the past 10 years. The ROE for 2015 was 19.1% and it has a 5 year median of 20.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2015 was 18.9% and its 5 year median value was 21%. The ROE on comprehensive income suggests the earnings are of good quality.
Debt ratios are generally good, but the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little higher than what I would like. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.10 and the Debt Ratio is 1.83. I like to see these ratios at 1.50 or above. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.20 and 1.20. I prefer to see these ratios below 2.00 and below 1.00, respectively. However, these ratios are not unusual.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, November 3, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
The North West Company is a leading retailer of food and everyday products and services to rural communities and urban neighborhoods in Canada, Alaska, the South Pacific and the Caribbean. North West operates 225 stores under the trading names Northern, NorthMart, Giant Tiger, AC Value Center, and Cost-U-Less. Its web site is here The North West Company.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, October 30, 2015
Equitable Group Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price reasonable but above relative median. I do not see the point in buying this bank. I think it is riskier than the big banks and yet offers lower dividends and probably lower total return. Other people say that they like it because its net profit margin is better than other banks. See my spreadsheet on Equitable Group Inc.
I do not own this stock of Equitable Group Inc.(TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF). I had read a glowing report on investing on this company in 2013, so I decided to check it out. It was interesting as it was loaning money to new immigrants, a class of people who generally have a difficult time getting loans and mortgages from our regular banks. It sounded intriguing.
On this stock, dividends are low and dividend increases are moderate. The current dividend is 1.35% based on a stock price of $56.21 and dividends of $0.76. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.6%. The 5 and 9 year dividend growth is at 10.9% and 8.9% per year. The last dividend increase occurred in 2015 and was for 5.6%.
This bank is paying out a low amount of its earnings. The Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS for 2014 was 10.26% and the 5 year median is 10.26%. DPR is expected to be similar in 2015. Since reported cash flow has been negative lately, there is no DPR for cash flow. A lot of analysts currently think that a bank's reported cash flow is basically meaningless.
An article in CFO.com of 2009 talks about this subject. Sites that give estimates, generally do not give Cash Flow estimates on this bank. They basically ignore cash flow. For example, 4 Traders, a site that generally give cash flow estimates, just ignores them for this bank. However, it does give cash flow estimates for other Canadian Banks. For example, see their site on Bank of Nova Scotia.
The next thing to look at is insider trading. The Net Insider Selling is at 0.03%. This is a little high. So it does not add anything positive to this stock.
Shareholders have done fine with 5 and 10 total returns to date of 19.26% and 9.96% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 1.66% and 1.34% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 17.60% and 8.61% per year. Shareholders did better to the end of 2014. The stock price has dropped some 14.4% this year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.7% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Issues and Stock Options. I have looked a growth in Net Interest, Revenue and Earnings. For all of these, growth is good.
Revenue has growth at 20.3% and 21.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 19.4% and 18.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Net Interest Income has grown by 22.8% and 21.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth in Net Interest Income for 2015 of some 18%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, Net Interest Income has grown by 9%.
EPS is up by 14.2% and 17.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth also in 2015 by around 15%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, EPS has grown by 10%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are at 5.67, 6.93 and 8.37. The 10 years corresponding ratios are a bit higher at 5.87, 7.10 and 9.60. The current P/E Ratio is 7.47 based on a stock price of $56.21 and 2015 EPS estimate of $7.52. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the relative median.
I get a Graham Price of $87.60. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.48, 0.60 and 0.81. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.64 based on a stock price of $56.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the relative median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 1.24 a value 8% higher than the 10 year median ratio. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $48.49 and a stock price of $56.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the relative median.
The 5 year n median Dividend Yield is 1.60% and the current Dividend Yield at 1.35% is some 15% lower. The historical dividend yield is 1.44% and the current dividend yield is some 6% lower. (Historical is not long as dividends have been paid for only some 10 years.) This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the relative median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $70.00. This implies a total return of 25.895 with 1.35% from dividends and 24.53% from capital gains.
The site of Mideast Time talks about RBC raising the price for this company. This Newswire article talks about an insider buying more shares. A couple of analyst talk about Equitable Group Inc on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Equitable Group Inc. is a niche mortgage lender. The company's primary business is first charge mortgage financing, which offer through company's wholly owned subsidiary, Equitable Bank (formerly The Equitable Trust Company). Equitable Bank is a Schedule I bank pursuant to the Bank Act, it actively originates mortgages across Canada and serves single family, small & large commercial borrowers. Its web site is here Equitable Group Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Equitable Group Inc.(TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF). I had read a glowing report on investing on this company in 2013, so I decided to check it out. It was interesting as it was loaning money to new immigrants, a class of people who generally have a difficult time getting loans and mortgages from our regular banks. It sounded intriguing.
On this stock, dividends are low and dividend increases are moderate. The current dividend is 1.35% based on a stock price of $56.21 and dividends of $0.76. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.6%. The 5 and 9 year dividend growth is at 10.9% and 8.9% per year. The last dividend increase occurred in 2015 and was for 5.6%.
This bank is paying out a low amount of its earnings. The Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS for 2014 was 10.26% and the 5 year median is 10.26%. DPR is expected to be similar in 2015. Since reported cash flow has been negative lately, there is no DPR for cash flow. A lot of analysts currently think that a bank's reported cash flow is basically meaningless.
An article in CFO.com of 2009 talks about this subject. Sites that give estimates, generally do not give Cash Flow estimates on this bank. They basically ignore cash flow. For example, 4 Traders, a site that generally give cash flow estimates, just ignores them for this bank. However, it does give cash flow estimates for other Canadian Banks. For example, see their site on Bank of Nova Scotia.
The next thing to look at is insider trading. The Net Insider Selling is at 0.03%. This is a little high. So it does not add anything positive to this stock.
Shareholders have done fine with 5 and 10 total returns to date of 19.26% and 9.96% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 1.66% and 1.34% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 17.60% and 8.61% per year. Shareholders did better to the end of 2014. The stock price has dropped some 14.4% this year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.7% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Issues and Stock Options. I have looked a growth in Net Interest, Revenue and Earnings. For all of these, growth is good.
Revenue has growth at 20.3% and 21.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 19.4% and 18.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Net Interest Income has grown by 22.8% and 21.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth in Net Interest Income for 2015 of some 18%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, Net Interest Income has grown by 9%.
EPS is up by 14.2% and 17.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth also in 2015 by around 15%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, EPS has grown by 10%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are at 5.67, 6.93 and 8.37. The 10 years corresponding ratios are a bit higher at 5.87, 7.10 and 9.60. The current P/E Ratio is 7.47 based on a stock price of $56.21 and 2015 EPS estimate of $7.52. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the relative median.
I get a Graham Price of $87.60. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.48, 0.60 and 0.81. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.64 based on a stock price of $56.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the relative median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 1.24 a value 8% higher than the 10 year median ratio. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $48.49 and a stock price of $56.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the relative median.
The 5 year n median Dividend Yield is 1.60% and the current Dividend Yield at 1.35% is some 15% lower. The historical dividend yield is 1.44% and the current dividend yield is some 6% lower. (Historical is not long as dividends have been paid for only some 10 years.) This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the relative median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $70.00. This implies a total return of 25.895 with 1.35% from dividends and 24.53% from capital gains.
The site of Mideast Time talks about RBC raising the price for this company. This Newswire article talks about an insider buying more shares. A couple of analyst talk about Equitable Group Inc on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Equitable Group Inc. is a niche mortgage lender. The company's primary business is first charge mortgage financing, which offer through company's wholly owned subsidiary, Equitable Bank (formerly The Equitable Trust Company). Equitable Bank is a Schedule I bank pursuant to the Bank Act, it actively originates mortgages across Canada and serves single family, small & large commercial borrowers. Its web site is here Equitable Group Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is reasonable and below relative median. A plus for this company is the special dividends given each year. However, dividends are tax higher than capital gains and there is not much in capital gains. See my spreadsheet on Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
I do not own this stock of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. I did a spreadsheet on this stock in February 2010. I chose this stock because I recognized the names of Gluskin and Sheff. Their financial year ends June 30 each year.
First I should mention that the two founders have basically left this company and there are some concerns about how the company will be run in the future. Currently some insiders own shares in this company. The CEO has shares worth around $47M and some 5.9% of the outstanding shares.
Also a couple of officers own shares with $20M and $45.8M which is 2.6% and 5.8% of the outstanding shares. They do not seem to have a new chairman for the board, but there is a lead director. He has shares worth around $0.3M and this is some 0.04% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.47, 11.60 and 13.73. The 10 year corresponding ratios are a bit higher at 10.41, 15.57 and 18.49. The historical median P/E Ratio is 15.57. The current P/E Ratio is 13.71 based on a stock price of $22.76 and 2016 EPS of $1.70. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and possibly below the relative median.
I get a Graham Price of $12.27. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.49, 2.07 and 2.55. The current P/GP is 1.85 based on a stock price of $22.76. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the relative median.
These P/GP Ratios are high. According to Graham Price theory, a good price to pay for a stock is when the Graham Price is 1.00. However, there are lots of stocks that never get a Graham Price that low. I deal with relative values as a lot of things about the stock market are based on relative values. On a relative basis, this testing says that the stock price is reasonable and below the relative median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 6.67. The current P/B Ratio is 5.78 a value some 13% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $3.94 and a stock price of $22.76. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the relative median. As with the P/GP Ratios, this P/B Ratio of 5.78 is a rather high P/B Ratio.
The current Dividend Yield is 3.95% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $22.76. The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 3.16% a value some 25% lower. Also, the historical median dividend yield is 2.93% which is some 35% lower than the current Dividend Yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the relative median. However note that this stock has not been around that long and the historical median is based on only 8 years.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $27.80. This implies total returns of 26.10% with 3.95% from dividends and 22.14% from capital gains.
In this Dakota Financial News release, RBC Capital have rated this company as "outperform" (a Buy recommendation). Joseph Solitro at Motley Fool thinks this is a great small cap to buy. Michael Decter on Stock Chase wonders about the effect of the departure of the founders of this company will have on it.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, October 28, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Gluskin Sheff is an independent investment firm that manages portfolios for high net-worth individuals and institutional clients. Its web site is here Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. I did a spreadsheet on this stock in February 2010. I chose this stock because I recognized the names of Gluskin and Sheff. Their financial year ends June 30 each year.
First I should mention that the two founders have basically left this company and there are some concerns about how the company will be run in the future. Currently some insiders own shares in this company. The CEO has shares worth around $47M and some 5.9% of the outstanding shares.
Also a couple of officers own shares with $20M and $45.8M which is 2.6% and 5.8% of the outstanding shares. They do not seem to have a new chairman for the board, but there is a lead director. He has shares worth around $0.3M and this is some 0.04% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.47, 11.60 and 13.73. The 10 year corresponding ratios are a bit higher at 10.41, 15.57 and 18.49. The historical median P/E Ratio is 15.57. The current P/E Ratio is 13.71 based on a stock price of $22.76 and 2016 EPS of $1.70. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and possibly below the relative median.
I get a Graham Price of $12.27. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.49, 2.07 and 2.55. The current P/GP is 1.85 based on a stock price of $22.76. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the relative median.
These P/GP Ratios are high. According to Graham Price theory, a good price to pay for a stock is when the Graham Price is 1.00. However, there are lots of stocks that never get a Graham Price that low. I deal with relative values as a lot of things about the stock market are based on relative values. On a relative basis, this testing says that the stock price is reasonable and below the relative median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 6.67. The current P/B Ratio is 5.78 a value some 13% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $3.94 and a stock price of $22.76. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the relative median. As with the P/GP Ratios, this P/B Ratio of 5.78 is a rather high P/B Ratio.
The current Dividend Yield is 3.95% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $22.76. The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 3.16% a value some 25% lower. Also, the historical median dividend yield is 2.93% which is some 35% lower than the current Dividend Yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the relative median. However note that this stock has not been around that long and the historical median is based on only 8 years.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $27.80. This implies total returns of 26.10% with 3.95% from dividends and 22.14% from capital gains.
In this Dakota Financial News release, RBC Capital have rated this company as "outperform" (a Buy recommendation). Joseph Solitro at Motley Fool thinks this is a great small cap to buy. Michael Decter on Stock Chase wonders about the effect of the departure of the founders of this company will have on it.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, October 28, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Gluskin Sheff is an independent investment firm that manages portfolios for high net-worth individuals and institutional clients. Its web site is here Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
On my other blog I am today writing about comparing the effect on dividends of original purchase price learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Financial Service Dividend Growth Stock. This is a relatively small company with a current Market Cap of around $721M. They also give out special dividends each year. See my spreadsheet on Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
I do not own this stock of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. I did a spreadsheet on this stock in February 2010. I chose this stock because I recognized the names of Gluskin and Sheff. Their financial year ends June 30 each year.
This company pays a special dividend every year. I do not know of another company that does this. This special dividend is often more than the regular dividends. The company decides each year how much to pay in special dividends. It can make a big difference sometimes. In 2014 the total dividend yield was 11.2% compared to the regular dividend yield 2.4%. It was less of difference in 2015 when total dividend yield was 4.9% compared to 3.5%.
The other difference you see is in the original stock price coverage after 5 and 10 years. To date total dividends have covered 43.5% and 79.7% of the original stock price after 5 and 10 years. To date regular dividends have covered 23.8% and 43.3% of the original stock price after 5 and 10 years.
The regular dividends are good with moderate dividend growth. The current dividend is 3.95% and the 5 and 10 years dividend growth is 12.1% and 14% per year. The last dividend increase was this year and the increase was for 12.5%.
They are paying out a good percentage of their earnings and cash flow. The Dividend Payout Ratio covering total dividends in 2015 was 73.8% for EPS and was 55.6% for CFPS. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 84.2% and for CFPS is 72.4%.
Shareholders have done fine over the past 5 and 10 years in total returns. However, most of the returns are in dividends. The total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 9.84% and 8.36% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 8.02% and 6.26% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 1.83% and 2.09% per year.
Outstanding shares have increased by 1.6% and 0.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Assets under Management have grown well. Revenue growth is low to moderate. EPS has grown moderately over the past 5 years. Cash Flow growth is moderate to good.
Assets under Management have grown at 9% and 14.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue has grown at 5.9% and 2.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share has grown at 4.3% per year over the past 5. The 10 year growth in Revenue per Share is probably not a true reflection of its growth. Analysts expect low growth for 2016 and better growth in 2017.
Net Income has grown at 6.4% and 27.13% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has grown at 5% per year over the past 5 years. The 10 year growth in EPS is probably not a true reflection of its growth. Analysts expect low growth in EPS for 2016 and better growth in 2017.
Cash Flow has grown at 7.1% and 10.4% over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 5.3% over the past 5 years. The 10 year growth in CFPS is probably not a true reflection of its growth.
The Return on Equity has always been quite high on this stock. The ROE for the 2015 financial year is 41.9% and 5 year median is 50.7%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is similar at 41.5% and a 5 year median at 50.7%. Sometimes high ROE are not good and ROEs can be high when debt levels are high. However, this is not the case here as debt levels are relatively low.
The debt ratios are quite good. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.86 and the Debt Ratio is 3.23 in 2015. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.45 and 0.45.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, October 29, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Gluskin Sheff is an independent investment firm that manages portfolios for high net-worth individuals and institutional clients. Its web site is here Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Financial Service Dividend Growth Stock. This is a relatively small company with a current Market Cap of around $721M. They also give out special dividends each year. See my spreadsheet on Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
I do not own this stock of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. I did a spreadsheet on this stock in February 2010. I chose this stock because I recognized the names of Gluskin and Sheff. Their financial year ends June 30 each year.
This company pays a special dividend every year. I do not know of another company that does this. This special dividend is often more than the regular dividends. The company decides each year how much to pay in special dividends. It can make a big difference sometimes. In 2014 the total dividend yield was 11.2% compared to the regular dividend yield 2.4%. It was less of difference in 2015 when total dividend yield was 4.9% compared to 3.5%.
The other difference you see is in the original stock price coverage after 5 and 10 years. To date total dividends have covered 43.5% and 79.7% of the original stock price after 5 and 10 years. To date regular dividends have covered 23.8% and 43.3% of the original stock price after 5 and 10 years.
The regular dividends are good with moderate dividend growth. The current dividend is 3.95% and the 5 and 10 years dividend growth is 12.1% and 14% per year. The last dividend increase was this year and the increase was for 12.5%.
They are paying out a good percentage of their earnings and cash flow. The Dividend Payout Ratio covering total dividends in 2015 was 73.8% for EPS and was 55.6% for CFPS. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 84.2% and for CFPS is 72.4%.
Shareholders have done fine over the past 5 and 10 years in total returns. However, most of the returns are in dividends. The total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 9.84% and 8.36% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 8.02% and 6.26% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 1.83% and 2.09% per year.
Outstanding shares have increased by 1.6% and 0.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Assets under Management have grown well. Revenue growth is low to moderate. EPS has grown moderately over the past 5 years. Cash Flow growth is moderate to good.
Assets under Management have grown at 9% and 14.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue has grown at 5.9% and 2.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share has grown at 4.3% per year over the past 5. The 10 year growth in Revenue per Share is probably not a true reflection of its growth. Analysts expect low growth for 2016 and better growth in 2017.
Net Income has grown at 6.4% and 27.13% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has grown at 5% per year over the past 5 years. The 10 year growth in EPS is probably not a true reflection of its growth. Analysts expect low growth in EPS for 2016 and better growth in 2017.
Cash Flow has grown at 7.1% and 10.4% over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 5.3% over the past 5 years. The 10 year growth in CFPS is probably not a true reflection of its growth.
The Return on Equity has always been quite high on this stock. The ROE for the 2015 financial year is 41.9% and 5 year median is 50.7%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is similar at 41.5% and a 5 year median at 50.7%. Sometimes high ROE are not good and ROEs can be high when debt levels are high. However, this is not the case here as debt levels are relatively low.
The debt ratios are quite good. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.86 and the Debt Ratio is 3.23 in 2015. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.45 and 0.45.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, October 29, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Gluskin Sheff is an independent investment firm that manages portfolios for high net-worth individuals and institutional clients. Its web site is here Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
Medtronic PLC 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap to reasonable. On some levels this stock is quite cheap. It would appear to mostly below the relative mean. See my spreadsheet on Medtronic PLC.
I do not own this stock of Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). In 2009 I was looking for a good US stock for my US$ account. I had heard good things about this stock and also it is in Health Care sector which is a weak sector in Canada. This is one of the few US stocks that I follow. Their financial year is April 30 each year.
There is not much insider ownership, but this company is worth around $104B. The amount of stock options granted, especially in the last two years seem quite high to me. However, the company does not seem to separate stock options from ESPP stock. This year some 17M stock options and shares via ESPP were granted which is some 1.2% of the outstanding shares. The book value of these shares was $1.1B. This number of shares was worth $1.2B at the end of April 2015 financial year.
The 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.91, 12.77 and 14.64. The corresponding 10 year Ratios are higher at 14.04, 19.10 and 21.58. The P/E Ratios have been decreasing lately. Note that the historical median P/E Ratio is 25.96. The current P/E Ratio is 22.81 based on a stock price of $73.69 and 2016 EPS estimate of $3.23. By the 10 year measuring stick, this testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $51.96. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratio is 1.19, 1.51 and 1.74. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $73.69. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the relative median.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.86. The current P/B Ratio is 1.98 a value some 31% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $37.15 and a stock price of $73.69. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 2.46%. The current Dividend Yield at 2.06% is some 16% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the relative median.
However, on a historical basis, the current dividend yield is very high. The historical median dividend yield is just 0.72% a value that is some 172% lower than the current dividend yield of 2.06%. On this level the stock price is getting cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $86.20. This implies a total return of 19.04% with 2.06% from dividends and 16.98% from capital gains.
This Reuters article talks about the recommended suspension of a Medtronic implant by the EU Drug Agency. This Insider Trading Report talks about recent insider trading at this company. This report says in the net insider trading over the last 6 months is a change of negative 4.11%. Recently Medtronic was allowed to transfer cash to the US by paying a 5% tax rate.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, October 26, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic PLC.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). In 2009 I was looking for a good US stock for my US$ account. I had heard good things about this stock and also it is in Health Care sector which is a weak sector in Canada. This is one of the few US stocks that I follow. Their financial year is April 30 each year.
There is not much insider ownership, but this company is worth around $104B. The amount of stock options granted, especially in the last two years seem quite high to me. However, the company does not seem to separate stock options from ESPP stock. This year some 17M stock options and shares via ESPP were granted which is some 1.2% of the outstanding shares. The book value of these shares was $1.1B. This number of shares was worth $1.2B at the end of April 2015 financial year.
The 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.91, 12.77 and 14.64. The corresponding 10 year Ratios are higher at 14.04, 19.10 and 21.58. The P/E Ratios have been decreasing lately. Note that the historical median P/E Ratio is 25.96. The current P/E Ratio is 22.81 based on a stock price of $73.69 and 2016 EPS estimate of $3.23. By the 10 year measuring stick, this testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $51.96. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratio is 1.19, 1.51 and 1.74. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $73.69. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the relative median.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.86. The current P/B Ratio is 1.98 a value some 31% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $37.15 and a stock price of $73.69. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 2.46%. The current Dividend Yield at 2.06% is some 16% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the relative median.
However, on a historical basis, the current dividend yield is very high. The historical median dividend yield is just 0.72% a value that is some 172% lower than the current dividend yield of 2.06%. On this level the stock price is getting cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $86.20. This implies a total return of 19.04% with 2.06% from dividends and 16.98% from capital gains.
This Reuters article talks about the recommended suspension of a Medtronic implant by the EU Drug Agency. This Insider Trading Report talks about recent insider trading at this company. This report says in the net insider trading over the last 6 months is a change of negative 4.11%. Recently Medtronic was allowed to transfer cash to the US by paying a 5% tax rate.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, October 26, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic PLC.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, October 26, 2015
Medtronic PLC.
On my other blog I am today writing about updating my index and dividend spreadsheets learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: US Health Care dividend growth stock. Dividends have grown strongly lately and analysts seem to expect more growth in the future. They have increased dividends every year for the past 25 years. See my spreadsheet on Medtronic PLC.
I do not own this stock of Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). In 2009 I was looking for a good US stock for my US$ account. I had heard good things about this stock and also it is in Health Care sector which is a weak sector in Canada. This is one of the few US stocks that I follow. Their financial year is April 30 each year.
The first thing to mention is that this company changed its name from Medtronic Inc. to Medtronic PLC effective January 2015. This was after buying Covidien PLC of Ireland and moving to Ireland. US companies are doing this for tax reasons. US taxes for companies are around the highest in the world. If they bring in profits made outside the US, they have to pay taxes on this money between the taxes they paid on it and the US rate of 35%. All currency in this report is in US$ unless otherwise stated.
I have records on this company going back to 2002 and they have increased their dividends every year since then. That is for 25 years. The dividend yield is moderate and the dividend increases are moderate. The current is 2.06% based on dividends of $1.52 and a stock price of $73.69. The dividends have grown at 8.3% and 13.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The recent dividend yields have been a lot higher than they have been historically. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.46%. The historical median dividend yield is just 0.72%. The historical high is around 3%. Yields have been higher since around 2009. They are also paying out a higher proportion of earnings and cash flows.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are generally good. The DPR for 2014 for EPS is 51% and for CFPS is 52%. The 5 year median DPRs for EPS is 31% and for CFPS is 23%. Analysts expect these ratios to be around 47% for EPS and 30% for CFPS in 2016. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and it was for 24.6%.
The total return for this stock to date is 17.10% and 4.21% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 2.38% and 1.71% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 14.72% and 2.50% per year.
What is of interest to Canadians is that if you had invested in this stock it is only in the last 2 five year periods where you would have made money. I have looked at total Canadian returns for this stock for each 5 year period from 2002 to the present time. The 5 year periods from 2005 to 2013 have total loss from 10% to 0.6% per year. For example, for the 5 year period from 2000 to 2005 there was a total return of a negative 2.8% per year. For the last two 5 year periods ending in 2014 and 2015, the total returns are 13.2% and 17.4% per year, respectively.
Outstanding shares have increased by 5.3% and 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and decreased due to Buy Backs. Shares increased some 42% in 2015 mainly due to purchase of Covidien PLC.
The financial year ending in April 30, 2015 was not a particularly good year for this company as earnings and cash flow was down. However, analysts expect the next financial year to be better. Revenues growth is nonexistent to moderate. Earnings growth is nonexistent to moderate. Cash Flow growth is nonexistent to low.
Revenue has grown by 5.1% and 7.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by 0.2% and up by 5.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth in 2016 at around 43%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of April 2015 to the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter of 2016, Revenue is up by 14.8%.
EPS is down by 2.9% and up by 5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect EPS to growth by 34% for the next financial period. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of April 2015 to the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter of 2016, EPS is down by 12.5%. It is not going in the right direction.
Cash Flow is down by 3% and up by 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is down by 7.9% and up by 0% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to increase by 45% in 2016 financial year. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of April 2015 to the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter of 2016, Cash Flow is up by 10.3%.
The Return on Equity for the 2015 financial year was 5% and the 5 year median is 18.6%. The ROE was below 10% 2 years in the past 5 years and in 3 years in the past 10 years. The ROE on comprehensive income for the 2015 financial year was 3.9%. However, the 5 year median ROE was 18.5%.
Analysts expect Net Income to increase by around 82% in 2016. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of April 2015 to the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter of 2016, Net Income is down by 1.9%. It is not going in the right direction. Also, the first quarterly results do not seem to include comprehensive income.
Debt ratios are generally quite good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 was 3.36. This ratio has been quite high since 2013. The Debt Ratio is 2.00. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 were 2.00 and 1.00.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, October 27, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic PLC.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: US Health Care dividend growth stock. Dividends have grown strongly lately and analysts seem to expect more growth in the future. They have increased dividends every year for the past 25 years. See my spreadsheet on Medtronic PLC.
I do not own this stock of Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). In 2009 I was looking for a good US stock for my US$ account. I had heard good things about this stock and also it is in Health Care sector which is a weak sector in Canada. This is one of the few US stocks that I follow. Their financial year is April 30 each year.
The first thing to mention is that this company changed its name from Medtronic Inc. to Medtronic PLC effective January 2015. This was after buying Covidien PLC of Ireland and moving to Ireland. US companies are doing this for tax reasons. US taxes for companies are around the highest in the world. If they bring in profits made outside the US, they have to pay taxes on this money between the taxes they paid on it and the US rate of 35%. All currency in this report is in US$ unless otherwise stated.
I have records on this company going back to 2002 and they have increased their dividends every year since then. That is for 25 years. The dividend yield is moderate and the dividend increases are moderate. The current is 2.06% based on dividends of $1.52 and a stock price of $73.69. The dividends have grown at 8.3% and 13.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The recent dividend yields have been a lot higher than they have been historically. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.46%. The historical median dividend yield is just 0.72%. The historical high is around 3%. Yields have been higher since around 2009. They are also paying out a higher proportion of earnings and cash flows.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are generally good. The DPR for 2014 for EPS is 51% and for CFPS is 52%. The 5 year median DPRs for EPS is 31% and for CFPS is 23%. Analysts expect these ratios to be around 47% for EPS and 30% for CFPS in 2016. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and it was for 24.6%.
The total return for this stock to date is 17.10% and 4.21% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 2.38% and 1.71% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 14.72% and 2.50% per year.
What is of interest to Canadians is that if you had invested in this stock it is only in the last 2 five year periods where you would have made money. I have looked at total Canadian returns for this stock for each 5 year period from 2002 to the present time. The 5 year periods from 2005 to 2013 have total loss from 10% to 0.6% per year. For example, for the 5 year period from 2000 to 2005 there was a total return of a negative 2.8% per year. For the last two 5 year periods ending in 2014 and 2015, the total returns are 13.2% and 17.4% per year, respectively.
Outstanding shares have increased by 5.3% and 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and decreased due to Buy Backs. Shares increased some 42% in 2015 mainly due to purchase of Covidien PLC.
The financial year ending in April 30, 2015 was not a particularly good year for this company as earnings and cash flow was down. However, analysts expect the next financial year to be better. Revenues growth is nonexistent to moderate. Earnings growth is nonexistent to moderate. Cash Flow growth is nonexistent to low.
Revenue has grown by 5.1% and 7.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by 0.2% and up by 5.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth in 2016 at around 43%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of April 2015 to the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter of 2016, Revenue is up by 14.8%.
EPS is down by 2.9% and up by 5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect EPS to growth by 34% for the next financial period. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of April 2015 to the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter of 2016, EPS is down by 12.5%. It is not going in the right direction.
Cash Flow is down by 3% and up by 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is down by 7.9% and up by 0% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to increase by 45% in 2016 financial year. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of April 2015 to the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter of 2016, Cash Flow is up by 10.3%.
The Return on Equity for the 2015 financial year was 5% and the 5 year median is 18.6%. The ROE was below 10% 2 years in the past 5 years and in 3 years in the past 10 years. The ROE on comprehensive income for the 2015 financial year was 3.9%. However, the 5 year median ROE was 18.5%.
Analysts expect Net Income to increase by around 82% in 2016. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of April 2015 to the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter of 2016, Net Income is down by 1.9%. It is not going in the right direction. Also, the first quarterly results do not seem to include comprehensive income.
Debt ratios are generally quite good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 was 3.36. This ratio has been quite high since 2013. The Debt Ratio is 2.00. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 were 2.00 and 1.00.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, October 27, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic PLC.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, October 23, 2015
Canadian Pacific Railway 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is relatively expensive. The things I do not like is the very low dividend yield, the dropping Book Value and the much lower comprehensive income compared to the net income. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Pacific Railway.
I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP), but I used to. I am following this stock because it is a dividend growth stock. It is one that was on Mike Higgs' list. It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999 so I am following it. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and choice CN as my railway stock.
Harrison owns shares worth around $34.8M but only 0.1% of the outstanding shares. However, Ackman has shares worth around $2.7B and some 8.4% of the outstanding shares. In this past year in insider trading, there was insider buying and insider selling with net insider selling at $20M and 0.06% of market cap.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per share Ratios are 18.54, 23.55 and 28.57. The corresponding 10 year values are a lot lower at 12.27, 15.58 and 18.04. The current P/E Ratio is 19.93 based on a stock price of $194.73 and 2015 EPS estimates of $9.77. If you look at the 5 year values this P/E Ratio is reasonable and below the median. However, looking longer term, this P/E Ratio suggests that the stock price is rather expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $72.69. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.12 and 1.31. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.68 based on a stock price of $194.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 2.07. The current P/B Ratio is 8.10, quite a high number and some 291% above the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The problem is that book value has been dropping, especially in the last couple of years. (This is mainly because the comprehensive income is a lot lower than the net income.) The Book Value has dropped some 40% between the end of 2013 and the third quarter of 2015.
The current dividend yield is 0.72% based on dividends of $1.40 and a stock price of $194.73. I do not buy stocks with dividends below 1%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.77% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.79%. The current dividend yield is some 53% to 59% below the 5 year median and historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The most recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month consensus sock price is $215.00. This implies a total return of 11.135 with 0.72% from dividends and $10.41% from capital gains.
The Kristine Owram of the Financial Post had a positive article on this company recently. The site of Dakota Financial News talks about recent analysis recommendations for this company.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, October 22, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company is a transcontinental railway operating in Canada and the U.S. Its rail network serves the principal centers of Canada, from Montreal to Vancouver and the U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions. Alliances with other carriers extend its market reach throughout the U.S. and into Mexico. Canadian Pacific Solutions provides logistics and supply chain expertise. Its web site is here Canadian Pacific Railway.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP), but I used to. I am following this stock because it is a dividend growth stock. It is one that was on Mike Higgs' list. It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999 so I am following it. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and choice CN as my railway stock.
Harrison owns shares worth around $34.8M but only 0.1% of the outstanding shares. However, Ackman has shares worth around $2.7B and some 8.4% of the outstanding shares. In this past year in insider trading, there was insider buying and insider selling with net insider selling at $20M and 0.06% of market cap.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per share Ratios are 18.54, 23.55 and 28.57. The corresponding 10 year values are a lot lower at 12.27, 15.58 and 18.04. The current P/E Ratio is 19.93 based on a stock price of $194.73 and 2015 EPS estimates of $9.77. If you look at the 5 year values this P/E Ratio is reasonable and below the median. However, looking longer term, this P/E Ratio suggests that the stock price is rather expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $72.69. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.12 and 1.31. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.68 based on a stock price of $194.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 2.07. The current P/B Ratio is 8.10, quite a high number and some 291% above the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The problem is that book value has been dropping, especially in the last couple of years. (This is mainly because the comprehensive income is a lot lower than the net income.) The Book Value has dropped some 40% between the end of 2013 and the third quarter of 2015.
The current dividend yield is 0.72% based on dividends of $1.40 and a stock price of $194.73. I do not buy stocks with dividends below 1%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.77% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.79%. The current dividend yield is some 53% to 59% below the 5 year median and historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The most recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month consensus sock price is $215.00. This implies a total return of 11.135 with 0.72% from dividends and $10.41% from capital gains.
The Kristine Owram of the Financial Post had a positive article on this company recently. The site of Dakota Financial News talks about recent analysis recommendations for this company.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, October 22, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company is a transcontinental railway operating in Canada and the U.S. Its rail network serves the principal centers of Canada, from Montreal to Vancouver and the U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions. Alliances with other carriers extend its market reach throughout the U.S. and into Mexico. Canadian Pacific Solutions provides logistics and supply chain expertise. Its web site is here Canadian Pacific Railway.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)