On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks continue...
I own this stock of Veresen Inc. (TSX-VSN, OTC-FCGYF). I bought this stock in 2008 as Fort Chicago Energy Partnership. At that time it was a publicly traded limited partnership with increasing and high dividends. In 2010 the company changed to a corporation.
When I look at insider trading, I find $0.9M of insider selling and net insider selling at $0.9M. This is a small amount of insider buying. Insiders have some stock options type vehicles called Deferred Share Units. There is not much in the way of insider ownership. The CFO has shares worth around $0.3M and the Chairmen has shares worth around $0.7M. Outstanding shares were not increased in 2013 due to stock options.
Because earnings has been very low, the 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are quite high at 37.24, 41.88 and 46.52. These are much higher than the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are quite high at 17.36, 20.74 and 24.72. The current P/E Ratio is 66.92 based on a stock price of $16.06 and 2014 EPS estimate of $0.24. These P/E Ratios are very high.
I get a Graham Price of $5.16. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.17, 1.44 and 1.70. The current P/GP Ratio is 3.11 based on a stock price of $16.06. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is very high.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.92. The current P/B Ratio is 3.26 a value some 70% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is very high.
I do not think that a stock price test based on dividend yield is a good one for companies that were income trusts or limited partnership and are now corporations. This is because dividend yields tend to be lower with corporations.
The 10 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 7.20 and the current P/CF Ratio is 14.73 a value over 100% higher. This stock price test says that the stock price is very high.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $17.00. This implies a total return of 12.08%, with 6.23% from dividends and 5.85% from capital gains.
There is an article on News Wire about this company doing a share issue for 17.5M shares. It was a bought deal. There is a Business Week article about this company getting approval for a LNG terminal. There is a recent interesting article on Midstream firms such as Veresen in the Financial Post.
I think that the stock is current very overbought and I would not buy at such a price. See my spreadsheet at vsn.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, May 02, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Veresen is a leading diversified energy infrastructure company that owns and operates energy infrastructure assets across North America. We are engaged in three principal business lines of Pipelines, Midstream and Power (gas-fired and renewable facilities). Its web site is here Veresen.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, May 5, 2014
Friday, May 2, 2014
Veresen Inc.
I own this stock of Veresen Inc. (TSX-VSN, OTC-FCGYF). I bought this stock in 2008 as Fort Chicago Energy Partnership. At that time it was a publicly traded limited partnership with increasing and high dividends. In 2010 the company changed to a corporation.
The dividends are good with a current one at 6.23% and a median dividend yield at 7.73%. Since 2008 the dividends on this stock has remained level. I doubt that the dividends will increase anytime soon as the Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings is at 370% for 2013 and has a 5 year median value of 357%.
The DPR for cash flow is better with a 5 year median value of 65%. However, the DPR for cash flow for 2013 was higher at 94%. The DPR for AFFO, which some analysts are measuring it against comes in at 88% for 2013 and the 5 year median value is also 88%.
My total return is 30.03% per year with 18.13% per year from capital gains and 11.90% per year from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 18.46% and 10.99% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is at 8.48% and 7.51% over these periods. The portion of the total return attributable to capital gains is at 9.98% and 3.49% per year over these periods.
The outstanding shares have increased by 8.5% and 7.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, DRIP and Debenture Conversion. This makes the "per share" values important. There has not been much if any growth in Revenues, Earnings or Cash Flow over the past 5 and 10 years. These values hit a high point in 2010 and 2011 and then slide downward. There was growth in all these values in 2013.
Revenue is down by 7% and 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by 14% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, the decline is not quite as bad with the decrease in Revenue per share down by 8% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue was up by 20% in 2013.
The Net Income is down by 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is down by 10% and 8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For 2013, earnings were up by 35%.
Cash flow is down by 1% and up by 5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The CFPS is down by 9% and 2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages, CFPS was down by 3% and up by 12% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. There was no growth in CFPS in 2013.
The Return on Equity on this stock is low and it has never reached 10%. The ROE in 2013 was 5.3% and the 5 year median was 5.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2013 was much better at 9.5% and the 5 year median is 8.5%.
The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is low at 0.54, but if you take off the current portion of the long term debt it is quite good at 2.12. The Debt Ratio is quite good at 1.67. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.50 and 1.50.
I have done well with this stock. However, on this stock I think that the easy money has been made and I expect on a go forward basis my total return will be considerably less. I also do not see any dividend increases in the near future for this company. The current dividend yield is quite good at 6.23%. See my spreadsheet at vsn.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, May 5, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Veresen is a leading diversified energy infrastructure company that owns and operates energy infrastructure assets across North America. We are engaged in three principal business lines of Pipelines, Midstream and Power (gas-fired and renewable facilities). Its web site is here Veresen.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
The dividends are good with a current one at 6.23% and a median dividend yield at 7.73%. Since 2008 the dividends on this stock has remained level. I doubt that the dividends will increase anytime soon as the Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings is at 370% for 2013 and has a 5 year median value of 357%.
The DPR for cash flow is better with a 5 year median value of 65%. However, the DPR for cash flow for 2013 was higher at 94%. The DPR for AFFO, which some analysts are measuring it against comes in at 88% for 2013 and the 5 year median value is also 88%.
My total return is 30.03% per year with 18.13% per year from capital gains and 11.90% per year from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 18.46% and 10.99% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is at 8.48% and 7.51% over these periods. The portion of the total return attributable to capital gains is at 9.98% and 3.49% per year over these periods.
The outstanding shares have increased by 8.5% and 7.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, DRIP and Debenture Conversion. This makes the "per share" values important. There has not been much if any growth in Revenues, Earnings or Cash Flow over the past 5 and 10 years. These values hit a high point in 2010 and 2011 and then slide downward. There was growth in all these values in 2013.
Revenue is down by 7% and 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by 14% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, the decline is not quite as bad with the decrease in Revenue per share down by 8% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue was up by 20% in 2013.
The Net Income is down by 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is down by 10% and 8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For 2013, earnings were up by 35%.
Cash flow is down by 1% and up by 5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The CFPS is down by 9% and 2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages, CFPS was down by 3% and up by 12% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. There was no growth in CFPS in 2013.
The Return on Equity on this stock is low and it has never reached 10%. The ROE in 2013 was 5.3% and the 5 year median was 5.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2013 was much better at 9.5% and the 5 year median is 8.5%.
The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is low at 0.54, but if you take off the current portion of the long term debt it is quite good at 2.12. The Debt Ratio is quite good at 1.67. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.50 and 1.50.
I have done well with this stock. However, on this stock I think that the easy money has been made and I expect on a go forward basis my total return will be considerably less. I also do not see any dividend increases in the near future for this company. The current dividend yield is quite good at 6.23%. See my spreadsheet at vsn.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, May 5, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Veresen is a leading diversified energy infrastructure company that owns and operates energy infrastructure assets across North America. We are engaged in three principal business lines of Pipelines, Midstream and Power (gas-fired and renewable facilities). Its web site is here Veresen.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, May 1, 2014
Pembina Pipelines Corp. 2
I own this stock of Pembina Pipelines Corp. (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA). In Dec 2001 I thought it would be a good time to purchase this stock as the market was relatively low. Pipeline stocks are conservative and the return on this one was good at 9.7%. When I purchased this stock it was an Income Trust company.
Over the past year, there has been $3.3M of insider selling and $2.8M of insider buying with a net of insider selling at $0.5M. A net of insider selling at $0.5M is almost 2.5% of Market Cap and it higher percentage than most net selling I have seen.
Insiders not only have stock options but also rights. Another thing I noticed is a lot of insiders have Convertible Debentures and Preferred Shares. There is insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $7.6M, the CFO having shares worth around $9.2M and the chairman having shares worth around $5.1M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 21.43, 26.34 and 31.24. These are higher than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios which are 18.69, 21.45 and 24.20. I find both these sets of P/E Ratios rather high for a Utility stock. The current P/E Ratio is 33.82 based on a stock price of $42.95 and EPS for 2014 of $1.27. This stock price tests still suggests that the stock price is high.
I get a Graham price of $21.65 and the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.35, 1.55 and 1.75. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.98. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high. I also think that the P/GP Ratios are rather high for a Utility stock.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.93 and the current P/B Ratio is 2.62 based on a BVPS of $18.09 and a stock price of $42.95. The current P/B Ratio is some 35% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.
Because this was an old income trust stock, I do not think that the stock price test based on dividend yield would be a good test. However, we can do one based on the AFFO which some analysts are still looking at. I only have AFFO values for 5 years. The 5 year median Price/AFFO Ratio is 14.10. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 19.35 a value some 37% higher. This stock price test also suggests that the stock price is high.
Recently in an article in the Globe and Mail Lou Schizas gives a technical analysis of this stock. There is an interesting article at CBC News talking about what is behind the rising opposition to Pipelines. There is a positive article about this company at Motley Fool. There is also second positive report on this stock Motley Fool.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $42.80, a price below the current stock price. This implied a total return of 3.56% with a capital loss of $0.35% and dividends of $3.91%.
There is inconsistency between recommendations and total return. Even at the highest 12 month stock price of $45.00 this only implies a total return of 8.68% with 3.91% from dividends and 4.77% from capital gains. Not a stellar result.
I think that the current price is too high. I also have concerns about the company paying out in dividends more than they make in earnings, about the Liquidity Ratio, the low ROE and the declining Operational Profit Margin. I am keeping an eye on this company, although, I do believe that it will be fine in the long term. See my spreadsheet at ppl.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, April 30, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Pembina transports crude oil and natural gas liquids produced in Western Canada. It owns and operates oil sands pipelines and has a growing presence in midstream and natural gas services sectors. Pembina holds a 50% interest in the Fort Saskatchewan Ethylene Storage Facility. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Over the past year, there has been $3.3M of insider selling and $2.8M of insider buying with a net of insider selling at $0.5M. A net of insider selling at $0.5M is almost 2.5% of Market Cap and it higher percentage than most net selling I have seen.
Insiders not only have stock options but also rights. Another thing I noticed is a lot of insiders have Convertible Debentures and Preferred Shares. There is insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $7.6M, the CFO having shares worth around $9.2M and the chairman having shares worth around $5.1M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 21.43, 26.34 and 31.24. These are higher than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios which are 18.69, 21.45 and 24.20. I find both these sets of P/E Ratios rather high for a Utility stock. The current P/E Ratio is 33.82 based on a stock price of $42.95 and EPS for 2014 of $1.27. This stock price tests still suggests that the stock price is high.
I get a Graham price of $21.65 and the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.35, 1.55 and 1.75. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.98. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high. I also think that the P/GP Ratios are rather high for a Utility stock.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.93 and the current P/B Ratio is 2.62 based on a BVPS of $18.09 and a stock price of $42.95. The current P/B Ratio is some 35% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.
Because this was an old income trust stock, I do not think that the stock price test based on dividend yield would be a good test. However, we can do one based on the AFFO which some analysts are still looking at. I only have AFFO values for 5 years. The 5 year median Price/AFFO Ratio is 14.10. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 19.35 a value some 37% higher. This stock price test also suggests that the stock price is high.
Recently in an article in the Globe and Mail Lou Schizas gives a technical analysis of this stock. There is an interesting article at CBC News talking about what is behind the rising opposition to Pipelines. There is a positive article about this company at Motley Fool. There is also second positive report on this stock Motley Fool.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $42.80, a price below the current stock price. This implied a total return of 3.56% with a capital loss of $0.35% and dividends of $3.91%.
There is inconsistency between recommendations and total return. Even at the highest 12 month stock price of $45.00 this only implies a total return of 8.68% with 3.91% from dividends and 4.77% from capital gains. Not a stellar result.
I think that the current price is too high. I also have concerns about the company paying out in dividends more than they make in earnings, about the Liquidity Ratio, the low ROE and the declining Operational Profit Margin. I am keeping an eye on this company, although, I do believe that it will be fine in the long term. See my spreadsheet at ppl.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, April 30, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Pembina transports crude oil and natural gas liquids produced in Western Canada. It owns and operates oil sands pipelines and has a growing presence in midstream and natural gas services sectors. Pembina holds a 50% interest in the Fort Saskatchewan Ethylene Storage Facility. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Pembina Pipelines Corp.
On my other blog I am today talking about some good stock from my portfolio continue...
I own this stock of Pembina Pipelines Corp. (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA). In Dec 2001 I thought it would be a good time to purchase this stock as the market was relatively low. Pipeline stocks are conservative and the return on this one was good at 9.7%. When I purchases this stock it was an Income Trust company.
As an income trust this company had increased their dividend, but not consistently. When it changed to a corporation, it basically kept its dividend level for three years. Since then there has been modest dividend increases. The most recent one was in 2013 and the increase was at 3.7%.
This company has the dividend growth characteristic of good dividends and low dividend growth. The current dividend is at 3.91%. The 5 year median dividend yield was higher at 5.98%. However, dividend yields tended to be higher on income trust companies than corporations. I would expect that dividends to be around 4% going forward.
This company still has not got the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS under control. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is at 148%. The DPR for EPS for 2013 is at 146% and it is expected to be around 132% for 2014. The DPR for CFPS is better with the one for 2013 at 71%. The DPR for CFPS is expected to be around 75% in 2014.
I have done very well in this stock with a total return of 19.54% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 11.98% per year and to dividend is at 7.56% per year. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 26.34% and 18.81% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends over these periods is at 6.70% and 6.67% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 19.64% and 12.15% per year over these periods.
However, I think that the easy money has been made on this stock. Although I expect growth in the future, I expect that it will not be a good as it was in the past. When companies went from income trusts to corporations, the stock prices generally climbed because dividend yields were expected to be lower for corporations. Dividend yields going forward will also not be a good as in the past.
The outstanding shares have increased by 18.5% and 12.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Issues, Stock Options, DRIP and Debenture Conversion. Because shares have increased, the "per Share" values become quite important. Revenues, Net Income and Cash Flow have all increased much more than Revenue per Share, EPS and CFPS.
Revenues have increased by 49.4% and 35.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has increased by 26.1% and 20.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Net Income has increased by 6.8% and 16.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However EPS is down by 1.2% and up by 6 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages for EPS, EPS is up by 4.2% and 6.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is because exactly 5 years ago was a good year for earnings.
Cash Flow is up by 28.3% and 22.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 8.3% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages for CFPS, the increase is not quite so good coming in at 6.8% and 5.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been quite low over the last couple of years with ROE at just 4.4% in 2013. However, the 5 year median ROE is much better at 14.4%. The ROE for comprehensive income is better in 2013 than for net income and it at 7.1%. This is still low, but it is better than 4.4%.
The Liquidity Ratios are not great. For 2013 the ratio is 0.84. This means that current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. However, if you consider cash flow the ratio is just 1.01. This means that current assets just cover current liabilities. Utilities generally count on cash flow to cover current liabilities.
The Debt Ratio is very good at 2.30. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are quite good at 1.77 and 0.77.
This has been a good stock for me. I would like it to get its Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS at a better place. Most analysts reviewing this still look at Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) to determine if the payout in dividends are reasonable or not. I expect to continue to do well with this stock, but I am also keeping an eye on it. See my spreadsheet at ppl.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, May 1, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Pembina transports crude oil and natural gas liquids produced in Western Canada. It owns and operates oil sands pipelines and has a growing presence in midstream and natural gas services sectors. Pembina holds a 50% interest in the Fort Saskatchewan Ethylene Storage Facility. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Pembina Pipelines Corp. (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA). In Dec 2001 I thought it would be a good time to purchase this stock as the market was relatively low. Pipeline stocks are conservative and the return on this one was good at 9.7%. When I purchases this stock it was an Income Trust company.
As an income trust this company had increased their dividend, but not consistently. When it changed to a corporation, it basically kept its dividend level for three years. Since then there has been modest dividend increases. The most recent one was in 2013 and the increase was at 3.7%.
This company has the dividend growth characteristic of good dividends and low dividend growth. The current dividend is at 3.91%. The 5 year median dividend yield was higher at 5.98%. However, dividend yields tended to be higher on income trust companies than corporations. I would expect that dividends to be around 4% going forward.
This company still has not got the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS under control. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is at 148%. The DPR for EPS for 2013 is at 146% and it is expected to be around 132% for 2014. The DPR for CFPS is better with the one for 2013 at 71%. The DPR for CFPS is expected to be around 75% in 2014.
I have done very well in this stock with a total return of 19.54% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 11.98% per year and to dividend is at 7.56% per year. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 26.34% and 18.81% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends over these periods is at 6.70% and 6.67% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 19.64% and 12.15% per year over these periods.
However, I think that the easy money has been made on this stock. Although I expect growth in the future, I expect that it will not be a good as it was in the past. When companies went from income trusts to corporations, the stock prices generally climbed because dividend yields were expected to be lower for corporations. Dividend yields going forward will also not be a good as in the past.
The outstanding shares have increased by 18.5% and 12.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Issues, Stock Options, DRIP and Debenture Conversion. Because shares have increased, the "per Share" values become quite important. Revenues, Net Income and Cash Flow have all increased much more than Revenue per Share, EPS and CFPS.
Revenues have increased by 49.4% and 35.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has increased by 26.1% and 20.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Net Income has increased by 6.8% and 16.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However EPS is down by 1.2% and up by 6 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages for EPS, EPS is up by 4.2% and 6.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is because exactly 5 years ago was a good year for earnings.
Cash Flow is up by 28.3% and 22.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 8.3% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages for CFPS, the increase is not quite so good coming in at 6.8% and 5.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been quite low over the last couple of years with ROE at just 4.4% in 2013. However, the 5 year median ROE is much better at 14.4%. The ROE for comprehensive income is better in 2013 than for net income and it at 7.1%. This is still low, but it is better than 4.4%.
The Liquidity Ratios are not great. For 2013 the ratio is 0.84. This means that current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. However, if you consider cash flow the ratio is just 1.01. This means that current assets just cover current liabilities. Utilities generally count on cash flow to cover current liabilities.
The Debt Ratio is very good at 2.30. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are quite good at 1.77 and 0.77.
This has been a good stock for me. I would like it to get its Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS at a better place. Most analysts reviewing this still look at Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) to determine if the payout in dividends are reasonable or not. I expect to continue to do well with this stock, but I am also keeping an eye on it. See my spreadsheet at ppl.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, May 1, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Pembina transports crude oil and natural gas liquids produced in Western Canada. It owns and operates oil sands pipelines and has a growing presence in midstream and natural gas services sectors. Pembina holds a 50% interest in the Fort Saskatchewan Ethylene Storage Facility. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Manulife Financial Corp. 2
I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). In May 2005, I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met my criteria. I bought some more stock in October 2005, in April 2009 and in April 2013.
When I look at insider trading, I find $6.1M of insider selling and $6.0M of net insider selling. So there is a bit of insider buying. Insiders not only have stock options, but other stock options type vehicles called Rights Performance Share Units, Rights Restricted Share Units, Deferred Share Units, and Rights Deferred Share Units.
There is little insider ownership, but the CEO does have shares worth around $2.6M. Outstanding shares were increased by 1M shares in 2013 with a book value of $17M and this number of share being worth around $21M at the end of 2013. This increase in shares is 0.05% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 11.22, 13.74 and 15.86. These are slightly lower than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 12.45 based on a stock price of $20.66 and 2014 EPS estimate $1.66. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $22.85. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.95, 1.12 and 1.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.51 and the current P/B Ratio is 1.48 a value some 2% lower. This P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $20.66 and a BVPS of $13.98. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.54% and the current dividend yield at 2.52% is some 29% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is expensive. On a historical basis the average dividend yield is 3.25% and the median dividend yield is 2.14%.
The problem with dividend yield testing on the stock price is that when this stock got into trouble in 2008, the dividend yield got quite high. This is why the 5 year median dividend yield is at 3.54% and the average is 3.25, but there is a historical median dividend yield at a lower 2.14%. Using the historical median dividend yield, the stock price is low, almost cheap.
The analysts' recommendations are all Buy recommendations. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.70. This implies a total return of $17.23% with 2.52% from dividend and 14.71% from capital gains. Most analysts see this stock as one that is recovering. This stock hit a high of $44.19 in 2007 and it is only around half this amount still.
Lorne Steinberg, President & Portfolio Manager, Lorne Steinberg Wealth Management talks on BBN on his stock picks and one is Manulife. He also thinks dividends are posed to increase. David Pett of the Financial Post says that MFC should lead the red hot rise in Canadian life insurance stocks.
I still believe in this stock and I do expect it to recover. I still think that it will be a long haul as we still do not know when interest rates will get to a more normal level. See my spreadsheet at mfc.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, April 28, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. Its web site is here Manulife.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find $6.1M of insider selling and $6.0M of net insider selling. So there is a bit of insider buying. Insiders not only have stock options, but other stock options type vehicles called Rights Performance Share Units, Rights Restricted Share Units, Deferred Share Units, and Rights Deferred Share Units.
There is little insider ownership, but the CEO does have shares worth around $2.6M. Outstanding shares were increased by 1M shares in 2013 with a book value of $17M and this number of share being worth around $21M at the end of 2013. This increase in shares is 0.05% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 11.22, 13.74 and 15.86. These are slightly lower than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 12.45 based on a stock price of $20.66 and 2014 EPS estimate $1.66. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $22.85. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.95, 1.12 and 1.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.51 and the current P/B Ratio is 1.48 a value some 2% lower. This P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $20.66 and a BVPS of $13.98. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.54% and the current dividend yield at 2.52% is some 29% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is expensive. On a historical basis the average dividend yield is 3.25% and the median dividend yield is 2.14%.
The problem with dividend yield testing on the stock price is that when this stock got into trouble in 2008, the dividend yield got quite high. This is why the 5 year median dividend yield is at 3.54% and the average is 3.25, but there is a historical median dividend yield at a lower 2.14%. Using the historical median dividend yield, the stock price is low, almost cheap.
The analysts' recommendations are all Buy recommendations. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.70. This implies a total return of $17.23% with 2.52% from dividend and 14.71% from capital gains. Most analysts see this stock as one that is recovering. This stock hit a high of $44.19 in 2007 and it is only around half this amount still.
Lorne Steinberg, President & Portfolio Manager, Lorne Steinberg Wealth Management talks on BBN on his stock picks and one is Manulife. He also thinks dividends are posed to increase. David Pett of the Financial Post says that MFC should lead the red hot rise in Canadian life insurance stocks.
I still believe in this stock and I do expect it to recover. I still think that it will be a long haul as we still do not know when interest rates will get to a more normal level. See my spreadsheet at mfc.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, April 28, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. Its web site is here Manulife.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, April 28, 2014
Manulife Financial Corp.
On my other blog I am today talking about the Stock Price Targets continue...
I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). In May 2005, I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met my criteria. I bought some more stock in Oct 2005. I had some more money to spend and wanted to buy stock of dividend paying company I owned, for which I did not own too much. In April 2009, I was looking for something else to buy and Manulife was at a good price. In April 2013, I need to buy higher dividend stocks for my RRIF account. There was some money after RRSP sells, so I bought more MFC.
When this company ran into trouble in 2008, the new CEO decided to cut the dividends by 50% in 2009. Until that time this stock was considered a dividend growth company. Since the cut in 2009, the dividends have remained stable. However, some analysts believe that this company will start to raise the dividends in 2014 or in 2015.
When this company was a dividend growth company, the dividend yield was rather low at a median of 1.9% and with a median increase of around 21%. Since then the median dividend yield has been around 3.5% because of the drop in the stock's price.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS is at 95% and for CFPS is at 9.9%. The DPR for 2013 was at 32% for EPS and at 9.9% for CFPS. The current DPR for earnings is in line with what the DPR for EPS used to be before 2008.
My total return is quite lousy at a negative 0.26% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is 2.48% per year and the total return attributable to capital loss is at 2.74% per year.
The 5 and 10 year total return is at 3.96% per year and a negative 0.2% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 2.62% and 2.69% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains over the past 5 years is at 1.34% per year and the portion of this total return attributable to capital loss over the past 10 years is at 2.89% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 2.8% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options, DRIP and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs.
Revenue has grown but not the Revenue per Share. The Net Income and EPS, especially over the past 5 years appear to have grown, but if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years you get a very different story with no growth. For Cash Flow and Cash Flow per Share there is growth, especially for Cash Flow.
Revenue is up by 1.9% and 8.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by just under 1% and up by 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue has been fluctuating but not really growing lately. Analysts only expect some slight increases going forward.
EPS is up by 38% per year over the past 5 years, but over the past 5 year, the 5 year running averages for EPS is down by 20.15% per year. This is because earnings were very low 5 years ago. There is not so much discrepancy with 10 year EPS, but EPS is 0% for last 10 years, but on a 5 year running average EPS is down by 7% per year. The EPS have been recovering over the past few years.
Cash Flow is up by 8.6% and 18% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The CFPS is up by 5.7% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
In 2013 the Return on Equity is 10.9%. This is the first year since 2008 that the ROE has been at 10% or above. The ROE on comprehensive income is even better for 2013 at 17%. This is a good sign.
The Liquidity Ratio is of low importance on financial stocks; however, there seems no doubt that current assets will cover current liabilities. The Debt Ratio at 1.06 is rather normal for a financial stock. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are rather high at 17.69 and 16.69, but this is rather normal for a financial stock.
This life insurance company is recovering, but we still have the problem of very low interest rates. Many people believe that very low interest rates are going to be with us for a while longer. See my spreadsheet at mfc.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, April 29, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. Its web site is here Manulife.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). In May 2005, I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met my criteria. I bought some more stock in Oct 2005. I had some more money to spend and wanted to buy stock of dividend paying company I owned, for which I did not own too much. In April 2009, I was looking for something else to buy and Manulife was at a good price. In April 2013, I need to buy higher dividend stocks for my RRIF account. There was some money after RRSP sells, so I bought more MFC.
When this company ran into trouble in 2008, the new CEO decided to cut the dividends by 50% in 2009. Until that time this stock was considered a dividend growth company. Since the cut in 2009, the dividends have remained stable. However, some analysts believe that this company will start to raise the dividends in 2014 or in 2015.
When this company was a dividend growth company, the dividend yield was rather low at a median of 1.9% and with a median increase of around 21%. Since then the median dividend yield has been around 3.5% because of the drop in the stock's price.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS is at 95% and for CFPS is at 9.9%. The DPR for 2013 was at 32% for EPS and at 9.9% for CFPS. The current DPR for earnings is in line with what the DPR for EPS used to be before 2008.
My total return is quite lousy at a negative 0.26% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is 2.48% per year and the total return attributable to capital loss is at 2.74% per year.
The 5 and 10 year total return is at 3.96% per year and a negative 0.2% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 2.62% and 2.69% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains over the past 5 years is at 1.34% per year and the portion of this total return attributable to capital loss over the past 10 years is at 2.89% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 2.8% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options, DRIP and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs.
Revenue has grown but not the Revenue per Share. The Net Income and EPS, especially over the past 5 years appear to have grown, but if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years you get a very different story with no growth. For Cash Flow and Cash Flow per Share there is growth, especially for Cash Flow.
Revenue is up by 1.9% and 8.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by just under 1% and up by 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue has been fluctuating but not really growing lately. Analysts only expect some slight increases going forward.
EPS is up by 38% per year over the past 5 years, but over the past 5 year, the 5 year running averages for EPS is down by 20.15% per year. This is because earnings were very low 5 years ago. There is not so much discrepancy with 10 year EPS, but EPS is 0% for last 10 years, but on a 5 year running average EPS is down by 7% per year. The EPS have been recovering over the past few years.
Cash Flow is up by 8.6% and 18% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The CFPS is up by 5.7% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
In 2013 the Return on Equity is 10.9%. This is the first year since 2008 that the ROE has been at 10% or above. The ROE on comprehensive income is even better for 2013 at 17%. This is a good sign.
The Liquidity Ratio is of low importance on financial stocks; however, there seems no doubt that current assets will cover current liabilities. The Debt Ratio at 1.06 is rather normal for a financial stock. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are rather high at 17.69 and 16.69, but this is rather normal for a financial stock.
This life insurance company is recovering, but we still have the problem of very low interest rates. Many people believe that very low interest rates are going to be with us for a while longer. See my spreadsheet at mfc.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, April 29, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. Its web site is here Manulife.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, April 25, 2014
Russel Metals Inc. 2
On my other blog I am today talking about the Oil Sands and Coal continue...
I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc. (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth List. In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time.
When I look at insider trading, I find $2.3M of insider selling and $1.1M of insider buying with net selling at $1.2M. There are not only stock options, but other option type vehicles called Rights Restricted Share and Rights Deferred Share Units. Insiders also have Convertible Debentures with good interest rates (i.e. 7.75%).
Outstanding shares were increased by 737,000 for stock options in 2013 with a book value of $21.5M. This number of shares was worth some $23.1M at the end of 2013 and is some 1.2% of the outstanding shares. This is rather a high number of shares for stock options as most companies increase shares for stock options at a rate less 1% and generally at one half of 1%.
There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $3.5M, the CFO having shares worth around $2.3M and the Chairman having shares worth around $1.3M. There also seems to be a lot of stock options outstanding.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.80, 15.70 and 17.61. The current P/E Ratio is 15.89 based on a stock price of $30.66 and 2014 earnings estimates of $1.93. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. Note that P/E Ratios are currently moving up on this stock as the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 9.22, 11.00 and 12.77.
I get a Graham Price of $24.64. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.93 and 1.08. The current P/GP ratio is 1.24. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share ratio is 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.19 which is a value some 26% higher. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is relatively high. The current P/B Ratio of 2.19 is based on a stock price of $30.66 and 2013 BVPS of $13.98.
I get a 5 year median Dividend Yield of 5.11. The current dividend yield at 4.57% is some 10% lower. The historical average dividend yield is 5.35% which is some 15% higher than the current dividend yield. The historical median dividend yield is 5.12% a value some 11% higher than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing says that the stock price is still reasonable, although it is in the high portion of the reasonable range.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. There are equal numbers of Buy and Hold recommendations so the consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month price consensus is $31.30 which implies a total return of 7.31% with 2.74% from capital gains and 4.57% from dividends.
There some recent technical analysis on this stock at the site BannRonn. The newspaper the Western Star talks about the company's fourth quarter which had a profit drop.
My stock price testing says that the stock price is reasonable to high. I still think that I can make good money in this stock over the longer term, so I will continue to hold on to my shares. Although I must admit this stock is only a minor stock holding in my portfolio. See my spreadsheet at rus.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, April 24, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Russel Metals Inc. is one of the largest metals distribution and processing companies in North America. The Company primarily distributes steel products and conducts its distribution business in three principal business segments: metals service centers; energy tubular products and steel distributors. Its web site is here Russel Metals.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc. (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth List. In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time.
When I look at insider trading, I find $2.3M of insider selling and $1.1M of insider buying with net selling at $1.2M. There are not only stock options, but other option type vehicles called Rights Restricted Share and Rights Deferred Share Units. Insiders also have Convertible Debentures with good interest rates (i.e. 7.75%).
Outstanding shares were increased by 737,000 for stock options in 2013 with a book value of $21.5M. This number of shares was worth some $23.1M at the end of 2013 and is some 1.2% of the outstanding shares. This is rather a high number of shares for stock options as most companies increase shares for stock options at a rate less 1% and generally at one half of 1%.
There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $3.5M, the CFO having shares worth around $2.3M and the Chairman having shares worth around $1.3M. There also seems to be a lot of stock options outstanding.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.80, 15.70 and 17.61. The current P/E Ratio is 15.89 based on a stock price of $30.66 and 2014 earnings estimates of $1.93. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. Note that P/E Ratios are currently moving up on this stock as the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 9.22, 11.00 and 12.77.
I get a Graham Price of $24.64. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.93 and 1.08. The current P/GP ratio is 1.24. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share ratio is 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.19 which is a value some 26% higher. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is relatively high. The current P/B Ratio of 2.19 is based on a stock price of $30.66 and 2013 BVPS of $13.98.
I get a 5 year median Dividend Yield of 5.11. The current dividend yield at 4.57% is some 10% lower. The historical average dividend yield is 5.35% which is some 15% higher than the current dividend yield. The historical median dividend yield is 5.12% a value some 11% higher than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing says that the stock price is still reasonable, although it is in the high portion of the reasonable range.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. There are equal numbers of Buy and Hold recommendations so the consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month price consensus is $31.30 which implies a total return of 7.31% with 2.74% from capital gains and 4.57% from dividends.
There some recent technical analysis on this stock at the site BannRonn. The newspaper the Western Star talks about the company's fourth quarter which had a profit drop.
My stock price testing says that the stock price is reasonable to high. I still think that I can make good money in this stock over the longer term, so I will continue to hold on to my shares. Although I must admit this stock is only a minor stock holding in my portfolio. See my spreadsheet at rus.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, April 24, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Russel Metals Inc. is one of the largest metals distribution and processing companies in North America. The Company primarily distributes steel products and conducts its distribution business in three principal business segments: metals service centers; energy tubular products and steel distributors. Its web site is here Russel Metals.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Russel Metals Inc.
I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc. (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth List. In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time.
I have dividend information on this stock from 1990. Between 1993 and 1999 inclusive, this stock did not pay any dividends. It started to again pay dividends in 2000 and in 2003 it was rapidly increasing the dividends. In 2009 dividends were decreased by around 45% and then were level for 2010 and then in 2011 they again increased their dividends.
The most recent increase was in 2012 with a dividend increase of 16.7%. In 2013 dividends were again flat. Analysts do not expect any dividend increases for 2014 or 2015. The dividend growth over the last 5 and 10 years do not really tell you anything as dividends can vary. The dividend yield has generally been quite good with a 5 year median of 4.9% and a current dividend at 4.6%.
The 5 year Dividend Payout Ratios are 82% and 61% for EPS and CFPS. The DPR for 2013 were higher at 102% and 72% for EPS and CFPS. The DPR for 2014 is expected to be around 73% and 51% for EPS and CFPS.
I bought this stock first in 2007 and then some more in 2009 and 2011. My total return is 7.57% per year with 4.65% per year from dividend and 2.92% per year from capital gains. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 17.26% and 13.87% per year with 11.58% and 7.06% per year from capital gains and 5.68% and 6.81% per year from dividends.
The outstanding shares increased by 0% and 3.5% over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares increased due to Stock Options and Bond Conversions and decreased due to buy backs. Revenues, earnings and cash flow have had nice growth over the past 10 years, but generally there has been no growth over the past 5 years.
For revenue, there was a big decline in 2009 and revenue has been increasing since then. However, revenues are not quite back to where they were in 2008. The 5 decrease in Revenues is at 1.1% per year and the 10 years increase in revenue is at 7.8% per year. The Revenue per Share is down by 1.5% per year over the past 5 years and up by 4.1% per year over the past 10 years.
Both earnings and cash flow are different than revenues. They both declined in 2009 and 2010. 2011 was a good year, but then both again declined in 2012 and 2013. Analysts expect 2014 and 2015 to be better. However, analysts had also expected 2013 to be better and it was not. This is not the first time that this company has had weak growth in earnings and cash flow. This happened in the early 1990's and again in the early 2000's.
Earnings are down by 18% per year over the past 5 years and up by 16% per year over the past 10 years. EPS is down by 17.8% per year over the past 5 years and up by 13.4% per year over the past 10 years.
Cash flow is down by 14% per year over the past 5 years and up by 11% per year over the past 10 years. CFPS is down by 15% per year over the past 5 years and up by 7.5% per year over the past 5 years.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% 3 times in the last 10 years. The ROE for 2013 is 9.4% and the 5 year median is also 9.4%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is better in 2013 at 13.8%. The 5 year median ROE on Comprehensive Income is 10.7%.
The current Liquidity Ratio is 3.50 and it has always been quite strong with a 5 year median of 3.50. The Debt Ratio is also very good at 1.94 with a 5 year median of 2.14. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine, but not great at 2.06 and 1.06, respectively.
I obviously paid too much for the shares I bought in 2007. However, later shares were at better prices, especially those I bought in 2009. Why you might want to own this stock is the good dividend yield which is currently at 4.6% and the dividend portion of the total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 5.7% and 6.8% per year. However, this is not a dividend growth stock as dividends can vary. The company also has a strong balance sheet. .See my spreadsheet at rus.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, April 25, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Russel Metals Inc. is one of the largest metals distribution and processing companies in North America. The Company primarily distributes steel products and conducts its distribution business in three principal business segments: metals service centers; energy tubular products and steel distributors. Its web site is here Russel Metals.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I have dividend information on this stock from 1990. Between 1993 and 1999 inclusive, this stock did not pay any dividends. It started to again pay dividends in 2000 and in 2003 it was rapidly increasing the dividends. In 2009 dividends were decreased by around 45% and then were level for 2010 and then in 2011 they again increased their dividends.
The most recent increase was in 2012 with a dividend increase of 16.7%. In 2013 dividends were again flat. Analysts do not expect any dividend increases for 2014 or 2015. The dividend growth over the last 5 and 10 years do not really tell you anything as dividends can vary. The dividend yield has generally been quite good with a 5 year median of 4.9% and a current dividend at 4.6%.
The 5 year Dividend Payout Ratios are 82% and 61% for EPS and CFPS. The DPR for 2013 were higher at 102% and 72% for EPS and CFPS. The DPR for 2014 is expected to be around 73% and 51% for EPS and CFPS.
I bought this stock first in 2007 and then some more in 2009 and 2011. My total return is 7.57% per year with 4.65% per year from dividend and 2.92% per year from capital gains. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 17.26% and 13.87% per year with 11.58% and 7.06% per year from capital gains and 5.68% and 6.81% per year from dividends.
The outstanding shares increased by 0% and 3.5% over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares increased due to Stock Options and Bond Conversions and decreased due to buy backs. Revenues, earnings and cash flow have had nice growth over the past 10 years, but generally there has been no growth over the past 5 years.
For revenue, there was a big decline in 2009 and revenue has been increasing since then. However, revenues are not quite back to where they were in 2008. The 5 decrease in Revenues is at 1.1% per year and the 10 years increase in revenue is at 7.8% per year. The Revenue per Share is down by 1.5% per year over the past 5 years and up by 4.1% per year over the past 10 years.
Both earnings and cash flow are different than revenues. They both declined in 2009 and 2010. 2011 was a good year, but then both again declined in 2012 and 2013. Analysts expect 2014 and 2015 to be better. However, analysts had also expected 2013 to be better and it was not. This is not the first time that this company has had weak growth in earnings and cash flow. This happened in the early 1990's and again in the early 2000's.
Earnings are down by 18% per year over the past 5 years and up by 16% per year over the past 10 years. EPS is down by 17.8% per year over the past 5 years and up by 13.4% per year over the past 10 years.
Cash flow is down by 14% per year over the past 5 years and up by 11% per year over the past 10 years. CFPS is down by 15% per year over the past 5 years and up by 7.5% per year over the past 5 years.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% 3 times in the last 10 years. The ROE for 2013 is 9.4% and the 5 year median is also 9.4%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is better in 2013 at 13.8%. The 5 year median ROE on Comprehensive Income is 10.7%.
The current Liquidity Ratio is 3.50 and it has always been quite strong with a 5 year median of 3.50. The Debt Ratio is also very good at 1.94 with a 5 year median of 2.14. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine, but not great at 2.06 and 1.06, respectively.
I obviously paid too much for the shares I bought in 2007. However, later shares were at better prices, especially those I bought in 2009. Why you might want to own this stock is the good dividend yield which is currently at 4.6% and the dividend portion of the total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 5.7% and 6.8% per year. However, this is not a dividend growth stock as dividends can vary. The company also has a strong balance sheet. .See my spreadsheet at rus.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, April 25, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Russel Metals Inc. is one of the largest metals distribution and processing companies in North America. The Company primarily distributes steel products and conducts its distribution business in three principal business segments: metals service centers; energy tubular products and steel distributors. Its web site is here Russel Metals.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Barrick Gold Corp. 2
I own this stock of Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX). This is a big gold mining company that I have followed for years. It was on some dividend growth lists at different times and has been covered by the Investment Reporter. I bought some of this stock in April 2013 because its stock price had fallen hard. I believed the market over reacted. I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest.
When I look at insider trading, I find no insider selling and $8M of insider buying over the past year. This shows some confidence in the company. The is also some insider ownership where the CEO owns shares worth around $1.3M, an officer of the company owns shares worth around $7.4M and the Chairman owns shares worth around $39M.
There are stock options, but also other stock option type vehicles called Rights Performance Restricted Share Units, Rights Restricted Share Units and Rights Deferred Share Units. Last year outstanding shares were increased by 44,000 because of stock options and these options had a book value of $1M. This small number of shares shows up a 0.00% of the outstanding shares. In 2012, outstanding shares were increased by 685,000 shares for stock options that had a book value of $18M and were 0.07% of outstanding shares.
Since there was no profit over the last two years, I look at the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios which are 12.83, 13.78 and 15.33. The current P/E Ratio is 16.54. This test would imply the stock price is high. I think that this test could be rather unreliable.
I get a Graham price of $17.97 based on the 2014 earnings estimate of $1.16 CDN (or $1.06 US$) and Book Value per Share of $12.36 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratio are 0.99, 1.65 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio based on a stock price of $19.21 is 1.07. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.24 and the current P/B Ratio is only 69% of this value at 1.55. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is based on a BVPS of $12.36 and a stock price of $19.21. (Note that the BVPS fell some 43% in 2013.)
If you look at 5 year median dividend yield, it is 1.08% and the current dividend yield at 1.14% is some 6% higher so this stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. The historical average dividend yield is at 1.10% and the current dividend yield at 4% higher suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
It is only when you look at Price/CFPS and Price/Sales Ratios (and Price/B Ratio above) that the stock price looks relatively cheap. The 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 11.66 and the current P/CF Ratio at 6.13 is some 47% lower. The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 4.36 and the current one of 1.93 a value some 56% lower. These tests are using CDN$ values. You get the basically the same results using US$ values. So on some relative levels the stock price is cheap.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, they cover all types of Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell. Most of the recommendations are in the Hold category and the consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $20.60. This implies a total return of 8.38% with 1.14% from dividends and 7.24% from capital gains. However, there is a big range in the 12 month stock price ranging from $12.70 to $28.00. This matches the analysts' recommendations which are also rather broad.
There are a number of articles about this company and Newmont Mining Corp merging. Who knows if this will happen? There is a recent article in Financial Post about the talks breaking down. A recent article in Mining.com talks about the company cutting compensation packages. At the end of last year, CTV News talked about Peter Munk retiring from the company.
On some relative levels the company is cheap, but it is also in trouble. I realize this stock maybe risky, but I bought it because it is interesting at the moment. I will not keep it for the long term. See my spreadsheet at abx.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Barrick Gold Corporation is a gold mining company with a portfolio of operating mines, and advanced exploration and development projects located across five continents. Its web site is here Barrick Gold.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find no insider selling and $8M of insider buying over the past year. This shows some confidence in the company. The is also some insider ownership where the CEO owns shares worth around $1.3M, an officer of the company owns shares worth around $7.4M and the Chairman owns shares worth around $39M.
There are stock options, but also other stock option type vehicles called Rights Performance Restricted Share Units, Rights Restricted Share Units and Rights Deferred Share Units. Last year outstanding shares were increased by 44,000 because of stock options and these options had a book value of $1M. This small number of shares shows up a 0.00% of the outstanding shares. In 2012, outstanding shares were increased by 685,000 shares for stock options that had a book value of $18M and were 0.07% of outstanding shares.
Since there was no profit over the last two years, I look at the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios which are 12.83, 13.78 and 15.33. The current P/E Ratio is 16.54. This test would imply the stock price is high. I think that this test could be rather unreliable.
I get a Graham price of $17.97 based on the 2014 earnings estimate of $1.16 CDN (or $1.06 US$) and Book Value per Share of $12.36 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratio are 0.99, 1.65 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio based on a stock price of $19.21 is 1.07. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.24 and the current P/B Ratio is only 69% of this value at 1.55. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is based on a BVPS of $12.36 and a stock price of $19.21. (Note that the BVPS fell some 43% in 2013.)
If you look at 5 year median dividend yield, it is 1.08% and the current dividend yield at 1.14% is some 6% higher so this stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. The historical average dividend yield is at 1.10% and the current dividend yield at 4% higher suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
It is only when you look at Price/CFPS and Price/Sales Ratios (and Price/B Ratio above) that the stock price looks relatively cheap. The 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 11.66 and the current P/CF Ratio at 6.13 is some 47% lower. The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 4.36 and the current one of 1.93 a value some 56% lower. These tests are using CDN$ values. You get the basically the same results using US$ values. So on some relative levels the stock price is cheap.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, they cover all types of Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell. Most of the recommendations are in the Hold category and the consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $20.60. This implies a total return of 8.38% with 1.14% from dividends and 7.24% from capital gains. However, there is a big range in the 12 month stock price ranging from $12.70 to $28.00. This matches the analysts' recommendations which are also rather broad.
There are a number of articles about this company and Newmont Mining Corp merging. Who knows if this will happen? There is a recent article in Financial Post about the talks breaking down. A recent article in Mining.com talks about the company cutting compensation packages. At the end of last year, CTV News talked about Peter Munk retiring from the company.
On some relative levels the company is cheap, but it is also in trouble. I realize this stock maybe risky, but I bought it because it is interesting at the moment. I will not keep it for the long term. See my spreadsheet at abx.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Barrick Gold Corporation is a gold mining company with a portfolio of operating mines, and advanced exploration and development projects located across five continents. Its web site is here Barrick Gold.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Barrick Gold Corp.
On my other blog I am today talking about a recent blog by My Own Advisor continue...
I own this stock of Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX). This is a big gold mining company that I have followed for years. It was on some dividend growth lists at different times and covered by the Investment Reporter. I bought some of this stock in April 2013 because its stock price had fallen hard. I believed the market over reacted. I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest.
I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest. It is fun to do such investing. Basically it is bottom feeding.
This is a resource stock. As often happens with resource stocks, dividends go up and down. For this stock I get an historical average dividend yield of 1.10% and historical median dividend yield of just 0.96%. They raise their dividend when they are doing well and lower when they are not.
Dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 1.7% and 6.5% per year. In 2013 they lowered the dividend by some 75%. Do not forget that I just bought this stock recently because it is having problems and was cheap. This is not a long term buy for me.
The company has not made a profit in 2012 and 2013, so there is no fix for the last 5 year on a Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings. However, on a long term basis, the median DPR for EPS is around 14%. For 2014, analysts expect a DPR for EPS at around 19%. The DPR for earnings has always been quite low.
The DPR for cash flow is also low with a 5 year median DPR for CFPS at 11%. The DPR for CFPS for 2014 is expected to be around 7%. The other thing about this dividend is that it is paid in US$, so it will also fluctuate with the changes in Canadian currency versus US currency.
Well, so far I have made a profit on this stock. However, it is only up 11% since I bought it. In total return I have made 9.4% per year with 7.23% from capital gains and 2.17% from dividends. Unfortunately, the same thing cannot be said for long time shareholders and the stock is down by 12.66% and 2.28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Over the past 5 and 10 years the portion of this total return that was a capital loss is at 14.26% and 4.03%. The portion of the total return attributable to dividend is at 1.56% and 1.75% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 5.9% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Because of this the "per share" values are important. Revenue is up and has done better in US$ terms than in CDN$ terms. Also, growth is better for the last 10 years than for the last 5 years.
As far as earnings go, the company had no profit in 2012 and 2013. They also measure an adjusted EPS to evaluate the underlying operating performance of the company. With the last measurement, they did better in US$ than in CDN$ and did better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years.
The Cash Flow growth has been quite good and the 10 year growth is better than the 5 year growth. Also they have done better in US$ terms and in CDN$ terms.
The Revenue is up over the past 5 and 10 years by 9.6% and 19.9% per year in US$ and by 6.6% and 17.6% per year in CDN$ terms. Revenue per Share is up by 3.5% and 10.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ and by 0% and 8.8% per year over these periods in CDN$ terms. However, if you look at 5 year running averages, there is better growth in the last 5 years with the Revenue per Share up by 11.2% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
There is not growth in EPS as for the last two years the EPS has been negative. For Adjusted EPS growth has be 5.7% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$. If you look at CDN$ the 5 and 10 year growth is lower at 2.8% and 6.7% per year.
For cash flow, the growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 12.9% and 25.5% per year in US$. In CDN$ terms the growth is at 9.8% and 23.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The growth in CFPS is at 6.6% and 16.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ and in CDN$ it is at 3.6% and 13.9% per year over the same period.
I cannot get a fix on Return on Equity as both the net income and the comprehensive income was negative for 2013. However, the loss in comprehensive income was a lot lower than for net income. The negative ROE for comprehensive income was just 0.1% compared to the negative ROE on net income which was 66.3%.
The Liquidity Ratio is very good, with the one for 2013 at 2.15 and the 5 year median ratio at 2.25. The Debt Ratio is also good at 1.75 and it has a 5 year median ratio of 2.33. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are not uncommon at 2.34 and 1.34 for a resource company; they are usually lower for this company with 5 year median ratios at 1.75 and 0.75.
The thing is, if you invest in resource stocks, you can sometimes make good dividends, but they are seldom solid. Resource stocks often have variable dividends. Also, this company is in some trouble, so to invest in it is rather risky at present. See my spreadsheet at abx.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, April 23, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Barrick Gold Corporation is a gold mining company with a portfolio of operating mines, and advanced exploration and development projects located across five continents. Its web site is here Barrick Gold.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX). This is a big gold mining company that I have followed for years. It was on some dividend growth lists at different times and covered by the Investment Reporter. I bought some of this stock in April 2013 because its stock price had fallen hard. I believed the market over reacted. I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest.
I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest. It is fun to do such investing. Basically it is bottom feeding.
This is a resource stock. As often happens with resource stocks, dividends go up and down. For this stock I get an historical average dividend yield of 1.10% and historical median dividend yield of just 0.96%. They raise their dividend when they are doing well and lower when they are not.
Dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 1.7% and 6.5% per year. In 2013 they lowered the dividend by some 75%. Do not forget that I just bought this stock recently because it is having problems and was cheap. This is not a long term buy for me.
The company has not made a profit in 2012 and 2013, so there is no fix for the last 5 year on a Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings. However, on a long term basis, the median DPR for EPS is around 14%. For 2014, analysts expect a DPR for EPS at around 19%. The DPR for earnings has always been quite low.
The DPR for cash flow is also low with a 5 year median DPR for CFPS at 11%. The DPR for CFPS for 2014 is expected to be around 7%. The other thing about this dividend is that it is paid in US$, so it will also fluctuate with the changes in Canadian currency versus US currency.
Well, so far I have made a profit on this stock. However, it is only up 11% since I bought it. In total return I have made 9.4% per year with 7.23% from capital gains and 2.17% from dividends. Unfortunately, the same thing cannot be said for long time shareholders and the stock is down by 12.66% and 2.28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Over the past 5 and 10 years the portion of this total return that was a capital loss is at 14.26% and 4.03%. The portion of the total return attributable to dividend is at 1.56% and 1.75% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 5.9% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Because of this the "per share" values are important. Revenue is up and has done better in US$ terms than in CDN$ terms. Also, growth is better for the last 10 years than for the last 5 years.
As far as earnings go, the company had no profit in 2012 and 2013. They also measure an adjusted EPS to evaluate the underlying operating performance of the company. With the last measurement, they did better in US$ than in CDN$ and did better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years.
The Cash Flow growth has been quite good and the 10 year growth is better than the 5 year growth. Also they have done better in US$ terms and in CDN$ terms.
The Revenue is up over the past 5 and 10 years by 9.6% and 19.9% per year in US$ and by 6.6% and 17.6% per year in CDN$ terms. Revenue per Share is up by 3.5% and 10.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ and by 0% and 8.8% per year over these periods in CDN$ terms. However, if you look at 5 year running averages, there is better growth in the last 5 years with the Revenue per Share up by 11.2% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
There is not growth in EPS as for the last two years the EPS has been negative. For Adjusted EPS growth has be 5.7% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$. If you look at CDN$ the 5 and 10 year growth is lower at 2.8% and 6.7% per year.
For cash flow, the growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 12.9% and 25.5% per year in US$. In CDN$ terms the growth is at 9.8% and 23.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The growth in CFPS is at 6.6% and 16.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ and in CDN$ it is at 3.6% and 13.9% per year over the same period.
I cannot get a fix on Return on Equity as both the net income and the comprehensive income was negative for 2013. However, the loss in comprehensive income was a lot lower than for net income. The negative ROE for comprehensive income was just 0.1% compared to the negative ROE on net income which was 66.3%.
The Liquidity Ratio is very good, with the one for 2013 at 2.15 and the 5 year median ratio at 2.25. The Debt Ratio is also good at 1.75 and it has a 5 year median ratio of 2.33. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are not uncommon at 2.34 and 1.34 for a resource company; they are usually lower for this company with 5 year median ratios at 1.75 and 0.75.
The thing is, if you invest in resource stocks, you can sometimes make good dividends, but they are seldom solid. Resource stocks often have variable dividends. Also, this company is in some trouble, so to invest in it is rather risky at present. See my spreadsheet at abx.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, April 23, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Barrick Gold Corporation is a gold mining company with a portfolio of operating mines, and advanced exploration and development projects located across five continents. Its web site is here Barrick Gold.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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