I am continuing my review this stock (TSX-COS.UN) today as the annual reported for December 2009 has been published and when anyone talks about investing in Canadian Oil Sands, this is the stock that seems to be mentioned first.
The first good thing I see about this stock is that there is insider buying to the tune of .6M. There is also some insider selling, but it is about half of the buying. The latest buying was in late March, not long ago. The other thing is that dividends are expected to go up this year and next. If dividends stayed at the current $.35 per quarter, they would total $1.40 per share. However, analysts expect the dividends to be higher at $1.63. They also expect the dividends for 2011 to be higher still at $2.00. This is good news for this stock.
The next thing to consider is the old stand by of the P/E ratio and because this is a unit trust, the P/FFO. However, you slice and dice things, both these ratios are currently high. The 5 year average low P/E is 12.7 and the 5 year average high P/E 23.5. I get a current one of 18.2. It is not that bad, but it is a little high. The P/FFO is worse, as the 5 year average low is 9 and the 5 year average high is 17; and I get a current rate of 20. The P/FFO ratio is relatively worse than the P/E ratio. Of course, the other problem with using FFO (Funds from Operations) or Distributable Income is that the calculation of this figure has changed over the years.
I notice that on websites that give current P/E, they show one of 33.9. This is because they are using earnings of 2009, which were especially low. I also notice that the globe-investors site gives are forward P/E (i.e. one for 2010) of 17.5, but I must admit, I do not know what figures they are using or where they are from. A number of sites seem to confuse the earnings and the FFO figures.
Moving on to the Price/Book Value, I see that the current one is 3.62 and the 10 year average is 2.92. So, the current one is some 25% above the average. What you like to see for a good price is a current ratio below the 10 year average. The next thing is the Graham Price. The Graham Price for 2010 is $17.34 and the one for 2011 is $19.21. The current stock price of $29.68 is higher than both. It is some 71% above the 2010 Graham Price and 54% above the 2011 Graham Price.
I guess the last thing to look at is the yield. The 5 year average yield is 4.9% and the current one is 5.5%. This is good. However, the yield has been a lot better in the past. For example, the 10 year average yield on the low stock price is 7.4%. What you might gather from all this is that the stock price is relatively high, but not unreasonably so. The best thing you can say is the current stock price is below the high of 2008, as it reach $38.88 in that year.
So what do the analysts say? I find recommendations from Strong Buy to Underperform. However, the majority of the recommendations are Buys and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) It seems that most expect 2010 to be better than 2009. It seems that the price of oil is expected to rise. Analysts mention that the distributions are strongly tied into the price of oil. Analysts also mention the strong balance sheet that this company has.
For a dividend loving stock buyer, I sometimes find this sort of stock interesting. You can make good money from such stocks over the long term. However, you cannot count on the dividends. And, just when you need dividends, they might be cut a lot. Oil prices tend to go down in recessions and therefore dividends on such stock will take a big hit in any recessions.
Canadian Oil Sands Trust provides a pure investment opportunity in the oil sands through its 36.74% interest in the Syncrude Project. Syncrude is an experienced oil sands operator, producing a high-quality crude oil for the past 30 years. With large, bitumen-rich leases located in the sweet spot of the Athabasca oil sands deposit and a fully integrated upgrading facility that produces 100% light, sweet crude oil, the quality of their Syncrude asset is very good. Its web site is www.cos-trust.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cos.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Canadian Oil Sands
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-COS.UN) today as the annual reported for December 2009 has been published and when anyone talks about investing in Canadian Oil Sands, this is the stock that seems to be mentioned first. As with any other investment in oil companies, if the dividend is good, then it will vary according to the price of oil. This makes the total returns growth figures on such investments very good.
For this company, 2009 was not a good year. Even with that, there are some very good growth figures for this company. For example, the Revenue growth per share figures for the last 5 and 10 years are 14% and 13% per year. The Total Returns growth figures for the last 5 and 10 years are 25% and 27% per year. Even the book value growth figures are not bad, being 7.3% per year and 12% per year for the last 5 and 10 years respectively. The 5 year figure is not great, but it is not bad either.
The growth in Cash Flow for the last 5 year is -3% per year. However, if you look at the 5 year running average for Cash Flow, you get a very different picture with the Cash Flow growth being 180% per year over the past 5 years. Growth in Distributable Income and Earnings were not great either, but this is because this company did not make much money in 2009.
Another good thing about this company is the strong balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liability ratios are 2.05 and 2.33 respectively. What you look for are ratios of 1.50 or higher and the ratios for this company are very good. Also, the Leverage (Assets/Book Value) ratio is good being at 1.75 for the end of financial year of 2009. The last thing to mention is the Return on Equity. The 5 year average ROE is high at 22.5% and the 2009 one is not bad at 10.9%.
Some time in the future, I might invest in some oil companies. You can make some very good dividend income over time when investing in such oil companies. However, if you are a dividend investor; you have to be prepared to deal with fluctuating dividend income if you invest in this company. If you cannot handle this, this would not be a good company for an investment. Tomorrow, I will talk about what the analysts say about this company.
Canadian Oil Sands Trust provides a pure investment opportunity in the oil sands through its 36.74% interest in the Syncrude Project. Syncrude is an experienced oil sands operator, producing a high-quality crude oil for the past 30 years. With large, bitumen-rich leases located in the sweet spot of the Athabasca oil sands deposit and a fully integrated upgrading facility that produces 100% light, sweet crude oil, the quality of their Syncrude asset is very good. Its web site is www.cos-trust.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cos.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
For this company, 2009 was not a good year. Even with that, there are some very good growth figures for this company. For example, the Revenue growth per share figures for the last 5 and 10 years are 14% and 13% per year. The Total Returns growth figures for the last 5 and 10 years are 25% and 27% per year. Even the book value growth figures are not bad, being 7.3% per year and 12% per year for the last 5 and 10 years respectively. The 5 year figure is not great, but it is not bad either.
The growth in Cash Flow for the last 5 year is -3% per year. However, if you look at the 5 year running average for Cash Flow, you get a very different picture with the Cash Flow growth being 180% per year over the past 5 years. Growth in Distributable Income and Earnings were not great either, but this is because this company did not make much money in 2009.
Another good thing about this company is the strong balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liability ratios are 2.05 and 2.33 respectively. What you look for are ratios of 1.50 or higher and the ratios for this company are very good. Also, the Leverage (Assets/Book Value) ratio is good being at 1.75 for the end of financial year of 2009. The last thing to mention is the Return on Equity. The 5 year average ROE is high at 22.5% and the 2009 one is not bad at 10.9%.
Some time in the future, I might invest in some oil companies. You can make some very good dividend income over time when investing in such oil companies. However, if you are a dividend investor; you have to be prepared to deal with fluctuating dividend income if you invest in this company. If you cannot handle this, this would not be a good company for an investment. Tomorrow, I will talk about what the analysts say about this company.
Canadian Oil Sands Trust provides a pure investment opportunity in the oil sands through its 36.74% interest in the Syncrude Project. Syncrude is an experienced oil sands operator, producing a high-quality crude oil for the past 30 years. With large, bitumen-rich leases located in the sweet spot of the Athabasca oil sands deposit and a fully integrated upgrading facility that produces 100% light, sweet crude oil, the quality of their Syncrude asset is very good. Its web site is www.cos-trust.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cos.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Monday, March 29, 2010
FirstService Corp 2
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-FSV) today as the annual reported for December 2009 has been published and I own some of this stock. I first bought this stock in June of 2002, when I was diversifying my portfolio into Real Estate stock. It is not a dividend paying stock, but I kept it because in August 2007, it issued to shareholders Preferred Shares with a 7% yield. I have just broken even on this stock including these dividends received.
When looking at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling report, I find that over the past year some $2.3M of the subordinate shares have been sold by insiders, especially by the CFO and officers. It is hard to tell if this means anything because you never know why people sell and it could just be that they need the money. However, this also does not tell us anything positive about the stock by insiders either.
When I look at the P/E ratio, I find that the 5 year average low is 13.4 and the 5 year average high is 22.4. I get a current P/E of 12.5 and so this is a good low P/E for this stock and a relatively low P/E to boot. Of course, this P/E is based on expected earnings for this year. The next thing is the Price/Book Value ratio. This ratio, at 1.97 is about 82% of the 10 year average of 2.39. So this also shows a relatively good current stock price.
The last thing to look at is the Graham Price. I get a Graham Price of $19.83 for 2009 and $22.06 for 2010. The current price of $23.13 is only about 5% above the Graham Price. Since this is generally a growth stock, this is not bad. In most years, even the low stock price is way above the Graham price. I cannot do a yield comparison, as this is not a dividend paying stock. It may seem that the dividends paid on the preferred stock fluctuates, but it is only because it is paid in US$ and the US$ fluctuates against the Canadian Dollar. Also, my dividends have only been increasing because the CDN$ is strengthening again the US$ and therefore I get higher dividends in CDN$.
When I look at look at analysts’ recommendations, what I find is Strong Buys, Buys and Hold. There are lots of Holds and lots of Strong Buys. The consensus recommendation, of course, would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) Analysts call this a well-run diversified Real Estate company. The feeling was that this company has met expectations in 2009 and it will do better in 2010. The reason for the Hold ratings seem to be that the price of this stock is not expected to go much above $23.00 within the next 12 months. The stock is basically there.
Over the long term, this company has consistently done better than the TSX Real Estate Index. However, as I said yesterday, this is not a dividend paying company, so I will pick a good time to exit it, probably this spring or early summer.
This company is a global diversified leader in the rapidly growing real estate services sector, providing services in the following three areas: commercial real estate, residential property management, and property services. This is an international company, having business in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Controlling shareholder is Jay Hennick. He has 9% holding, but has 52.5% voting control. Its web site is www.firstservice.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fsv.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
When looking at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling report, I find that over the past year some $2.3M of the subordinate shares have been sold by insiders, especially by the CFO and officers. It is hard to tell if this means anything because you never know why people sell and it could just be that they need the money. However, this also does not tell us anything positive about the stock by insiders either.
When I look at the P/E ratio, I find that the 5 year average low is 13.4 and the 5 year average high is 22.4. I get a current P/E of 12.5 and so this is a good low P/E for this stock and a relatively low P/E to boot. Of course, this P/E is based on expected earnings for this year. The next thing is the Price/Book Value ratio. This ratio, at 1.97 is about 82% of the 10 year average of 2.39. So this also shows a relatively good current stock price.
The last thing to look at is the Graham Price. I get a Graham Price of $19.83 for 2009 and $22.06 for 2010. The current price of $23.13 is only about 5% above the Graham Price. Since this is generally a growth stock, this is not bad. In most years, even the low stock price is way above the Graham price. I cannot do a yield comparison, as this is not a dividend paying stock. It may seem that the dividends paid on the preferred stock fluctuates, but it is only because it is paid in US$ and the US$ fluctuates against the Canadian Dollar. Also, my dividends have only been increasing because the CDN$ is strengthening again the US$ and therefore I get higher dividends in CDN$.
When I look at look at analysts’ recommendations, what I find is Strong Buys, Buys and Hold. There are lots of Holds and lots of Strong Buys. The consensus recommendation, of course, would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) Analysts call this a well-run diversified Real Estate company. The feeling was that this company has met expectations in 2009 and it will do better in 2010. The reason for the Hold ratings seem to be that the price of this stock is not expected to go much above $23.00 within the next 12 months. The stock is basically there.
Over the long term, this company has consistently done better than the TSX Real Estate Index. However, as I said yesterday, this is not a dividend paying company, so I will pick a good time to exit it, probably this spring or early summer.
This company is a global diversified leader in the rapidly growing real estate services sector, providing services in the following three areas: commercial real estate, residential property management, and property services. This is an international company, having business in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Controlling shareholder is Jay Hennick. He has 9% holding, but has 52.5% voting control. Its web site is www.firstservice.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fsv.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, March 26, 2010
FirstService Corp
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-FSV) today as the annual reported for December 2009 has been published and I own some of this stock. I first bought this stock in June of 2002, when I was diversifying my portfolio into Real Estate stock. It is not a dividend paying stock, but I kept it because in August 2007, it issued to shareholders Preferred Shares with a 7% yield. However, on my original investment, I am making a dividend yield of just 1.16%.
For this stock, all the growth figures, except for total return, are good. This is a real estate stock, so its price is depressed. The 5 and 10 year growth for total return is -2.6% and 9.8%. The 10 year return is good. It is just the 5 year one that is not. The 5 and 10 year growth in revenue per share is 13% and 12% per year, respectively. The 5 and 10 year growth in Cash Flow is 18.6% and 14.3% per year, respectively. The revenue growth and cash flow growth is important for any company when you are looking for an investment.
Although this company lost money in 2009, it is giving an adjusted earnings figures of $1.49, as this is what it earned on its continuing business. The earnings loss for 2009 lowers their Return on Equity 5 year average to 9.4%, from their previous averages, which were all over 15%. The Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liability Ratio are not great. They are 1.19 and 1.49 respectively. The assets can cover the liabilities, but I would prefer both these ratios to be 1.50. The Asset/Liability Ratio almost makes this.
Because the Adjusted earnings are not the true earnings, I have put it into the uncertain purple colour. I have also done this for the number of shares outstanding and book value, both of which I was unsure of. The problem is that I am working off of unaudited statements published in a news bulletin, rather than the real annual statements.
The last thing to mention is that I will probably sell these shares. It is not a really dividend paying company and I would rather put my money into a dividend paying stock. I will probably look for a good time to sell and may only sell the stock and not the preferred shares. The preferred shares have a good return of over 7%, but they can be recalled at anytime and this might just happen. On Monday, I will review what the analysts say about this stock.
This company is a global diversified leader in the rapidly growing real estate services sector, providing services in the following three areas: commercial real estate, residential property management, and property services. This is an international company, having business in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Controlling shareholder is Jay Hennick. He has 9% holding, but has 52.5% voting control. Its web site is www.firstservice.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fsv.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
For this stock, all the growth figures, except for total return, are good. This is a real estate stock, so its price is depressed. The 5 and 10 year growth for total return is -2.6% and 9.8%. The 10 year return is good. It is just the 5 year one that is not. The 5 and 10 year growth in revenue per share is 13% and 12% per year, respectively. The 5 and 10 year growth in Cash Flow is 18.6% and 14.3% per year, respectively. The revenue growth and cash flow growth is important for any company when you are looking for an investment.
Although this company lost money in 2009, it is giving an adjusted earnings figures of $1.49, as this is what it earned on its continuing business. The earnings loss for 2009 lowers their Return on Equity 5 year average to 9.4%, from their previous averages, which were all over 15%. The Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liability Ratio are not great. They are 1.19 and 1.49 respectively. The assets can cover the liabilities, but I would prefer both these ratios to be 1.50. The Asset/Liability Ratio almost makes this.
Because the Adjusted earnings are not the true earnings, I have put it into the uncertain purple colour. I have also done this for the number of shares outstanding and book value, both of which I was unsure of. The problem is that I am working off of unaudited statements published in a news bulletin, rather than the real annual statements.
The last thing to mention is that I will probably sell these shares. It is not a really dividend paying company and I would rather put my money into a dividend paying stock. I will probably look for a good time to sell and may only sell the stock and not the preferred shares. The preferred shares have a good return of over 7%, but they can be recalled at anytime and this might just happen. On Monday, I will review what the analysts say about this stock.
This company is a global diversified leader in the rapidly growing real estate services sector, providing services in the following three areas: commercial real estate, residential property management, and property services. This is an international company, having business in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Controlling shareholder is Jay Hennick. He has 9% holding, but has 52.5% voting control. Its web site is www.firstservice.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fsv.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Fort Chicago Energy 2
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-FCE.UN) today as the annual reported for December 2009 has been published and I own some of this stock. This dividend stock was recommended by a newsletter I like. I bought only a small amount of this stock in December 2008 and March 2009 and my return has been some 56%. This is because I bought this stock at a good price and the dividends are good. There were some aspects of this company I did not like, so I made a small purchase.
In this second part of my report, I like to start with Insider Buying and Insider Selling. There was a small amount of selling in the early part of this year. This means nothing. There has also been some buying of stock under the company’s employee buying plan, and is positive. There has been no dividend increases lately as this company will be going to a corporation and plans, at the moment, to retail the current dividend. This dividend is good as it is over 9%.
The next thing is the P/E ratios. The 5 year low is 17.3 and the 5 year high is 24.7. I get a current one of 21.4. The P/E ratio is high on this stock. For those that want to check the Price/FFO ratios, they are on my spreadsheet. You can check relative values, but do not mistake P/E and P/FFO ratios as being interchangeable. However, P/FFO ratios of different companies can be compared.
The next thing I want to look at is the dividend yield. The current yield of 9.4% is slightly below the 5 year average of 9.5%. However, the yield for this stock was more like 8%, until the recent recession. I get a current Graham Price of $7.51 and the stock price is $10.69. However, I should point out that this Graham Price (which takes into consideration the earnings and book value) has fluctuated over the years. This is because both the earnings and book value has fluctuated over the years. Also, there is little or no increase in the Book Value, but this figure is affected by depreciation of assets, so it may not fairly reflect the company’s break up value.
We are not going to get much value out of the Price/Book Value ratio either. This is because of the decreasing book value and problems shown above. Probably the most effective measure of the current stock price is the dividend yield and it seems to be saying stock price is reasonable or slightly low. The one real Buy signal is the negative Accrual Ratio, and this is quite close to a negative 5%.
So, what do the analysts recommend to do with stock? When I look at the recommendations, there are lots and lots of Hold recommendations, some Buy and the odd Sell recommendations. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) No analysts with Hold recommendations expect any rise in the stock price, or maybe a slight decline in the stock price, over the next year. Any buy recommendation comes with talk about the great yield. It is called a boring company that has great assets. Some feel that it is only a good buy under $10.
I plan to hold on to the shares I have. The yield is great and I might reconsider and get more if the price drops below $10.
Fort Chicago owns and operates energy infrastructure assets across North America with three principal businesses of Pipeline Transportation, natural gas liquids and power. The company operates in Canada and US. Its web site is www.fortchicago.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fce.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets and my investing notes at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
In this second part of my report, I like to start with Insider Buying and Insider Selling. There was a small amount of selling in the early part of this year. This means nothing. There has also been some buying of stock under the company’s employee buying plan, and is positive. There has been no dividend increases lately as this company will be going to a corporation and plans, at the moment, to retail the current dividend. This dividend is good as it is over 9%.
The next thing is the P/E ratios. The 5 year low is 17.3 and the 5 year high is 24.7. I get a current one of 21.4. The P/E ratio is high on this stock. For those that want to check the Price/FFO ratios, they are on my spreadsheet. You can check relative values, but do not mistake P/E and P/FFO ratios as being interchangeable. However, P/FFO ratios of different companies can be compared.
The next thing I want to look at is the dividend yield. The current yield of 9.4% is slightly below the 5 year average of 9.5%. However, the yield for this stock was more like 8%, until the recent recession. I get a current Graham Price of $7.51 and the stock price is $10.69. However, I should point out that this Graham Price (which takes into consideration the earnings and book value) has fluctuated over the years. This is because both the earnings and book value has fluctuated over the years. Also, there is little or no increase in the Book Value, but this figure is affected by depreciation of assets, so it may not fairly reflect the company’s break up value.
We are not going to get much value out of the Price/Book Value ratio either. This is because of the decreasing book value and problems shown above. Probably the most effective measure of the current stock price is the dividend yield and it seems to be saying stock price is reasonable or slightly low. The one real Buy signal is the negative Accrual Ratio, and this is quite close to a negative 5%.
So, what do the analysts recommend to do with stock? When I look at the recommendations, there are lots and lots of Hold recommendations, some Buy and the odd Sell recommendations. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) No analysts with Hold recommendations expect any rise in the stock price, or maybe a slight decline in the stock price, over the next year. Any buy recommendation comes with talk about the great yield. It is called a boring company that has great assets. Some feel that it is only a good buy under $10.
I plan to hold on to the shares I have. The yield is great and I might reconsider and get more if the price drops below $10.
Fort Chicago owns and operates energy infrastructure assets across North America with three principal businesses of Pipeline Transportation, natural gas liquids and power. The company operates in Canada and US. Its web site is www.fortchicago.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fce.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets and my investing notes at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Fort Chicago Energy
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-FCE.UN) today as the annual reported for December 2009 has been published and I own some of this stock. This dividend stock was recommended by a newsletter I like. I bought only a small amount of this stock in December 2008 and March 2009 and my return has been some 56%. This is because I bought this stock at a good price and the dividends are good. There were some aspects of this company I did not like, so I made a small purchase.
The reason for my great return is that the price of this stock has increased since I bought it. This stocks increase since the March 2009 low is over 60% and it still as a dividend yield over 9%. However, it is not likely that the distributions will increase over the short term. It will be changing to a corporation and I do not expect any changes in the distribution before 2011.
The one thing that hits you after reviewing the 2009 annual report is that this company has had a bad year. Although, a lot of the losses are do to write-offs. Because of the bad year it has had, the growth figures are from mediocre to really bad. The only good growth figures is the growth in distributions, and the 5 and 10 year growth figures are 3.7% and 5% per year. However, do not expect any growth from the current distributions, which is, and has been $1.00 per share since 2008.
The one thing that I have not liked about this stock is the lack of growth in the Book Value. The growth in Book Value was bad last year and the Book Value is currently dropping at the rate of 2 to 3% per year. The Total Return on this stock has been increasing. The 5 and 10 year growth figures are 6.2% and 11.8% per year respectively. A lot of this total return is because of the distributions paid. The 5 year growth for just stock price is a negative 2.6%.
Another negative for this stock is the Liquidity Ratio and no matter how you look at it, it is low at 0.49. This means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. The Asset /Liability Ratio is also low at 1.32. However, the assets do cover the liabilities in this last ratio. When you look at the Return on Equity, the ROE for 2009 is just ok at 5.4% and the 5 year average is better at 8.7%. The one good ratio is the Accrual Ratio and it is a negative 4.7%.
I plan to continue to hold my shares. I do not have much invested and the yield is good and most analysts feel the distributions are safe. This stock is also being followed on another blog called Think Dividends.
Fort Chicago owns and operates energy infrastructure assets across North America with three principal businesses of Pipeline Transportation, natural gas liquids and power. The company operates in Canada and US. Its web site is www.fortchicago.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fce.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets and my investing notes at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
The reason for my great return is that the price of this stock has increased since I bought it. This stocks increase since the March 2009 low is over 60% and it still as a dividend yield over 9%. However, it is not likely that the distributions will increase over the short term. It will be changing to a corporation and I do not expect any changes in the distribution before 2011.
The one thing that hits you after reviewing the 2009 annual report is that this company has had a bad year. Although, a lot of the losses are do to write-offs. Because of the bad year it has had, the growth figures are from mediocre to really bad. The only good growth figures is the growth in distributions, and the 5 and 10 year growth figures are 3.7% and 5% per year. However, do not expect any growth from the current distributions, which is, and has been $1.00 per share since 2008.
The one thing that I have not liked about this stock is the lack of growth in the Book Value. The growth in Book Value was bad last year and the Book Value is currently dropping at the rate of 2 to 3% per year. The Total Return on this stock has been increasing. The 5 and 10 year growth figures are 6.2% and 11.8% per year respectively. A lot of this total return is because of the distributions paid. The 5 year growth for just stock price is a negative 2.6%.
Another negative for this stock is the Liquidity Ratio and no matter how you look at it, it is low at 0.49. This means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. The Asset /Liability Ratio is also low at 1.32. However, the assets do cover the liabilities in this last ratio. When you look at the Return on Equity, the ROE for 2009 is just ok at 5.4% and the 5 year average is better at 8.7%. The one good ratio is the Accrual Ratio and it is a negative 4.7%.
I plan to continue to hold my shares. I do not have much invested and the yield is good and most analysts feel the distributions are safe. This stock is also being followed on another blog called Think Dividends.
Fort Chicago owns and operates energy infrastructure assets across North America with three principal businesses of Pipeline Transportation, natural gas liquids and power. The company operates in Canada and US. Its web site is www.fortchicago.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fce.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets and my investing notes at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Enbridge Inc 2
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-ENB) today as the annual reported for December 2009 has been published and this is a stock that I own. I bought shares in this company in for the first time July 2005 and I purchases more stock in November 2008 and January 2009. To date I have made a return of 11.3% per year. I am making a current yield of 4.4% on my investment.
When I look at Insider Buying and Insider Selling, I see that there is some $25M of insider selling. However, the executives of this company have more stock options than actual shares. What they are selling are their stock options. This is not great, but it really does not tell you much. What the company thinks of their shares is more clearly stated in the recent increase in dividends. The recent dividend increase says the company thinks it will be doing well over the next little while.
The next thing to look at is the P/E ratio. Since all the estimates I can find are based on adjusted earnings, I will look at the associated P/E with adjusted EPS. Ratios are often relative. The 5 year low P/E is 18 and the current P/E is 18.9. The 5 year average high is 23.3. All these P/Es are on the high side for P/E ratios. However, on a relative basis, the P/E on this stock is on the low side. Then again, if you look at the P/E based on the real earnings, the P/E is just 11.6 and this is on the low side.
I get a Graham Price for 2009 of $42.86. The current stock price is $48.66. The current stock price is 15% above the Graham Price. For this stock, the stock price has been consistently above the Graham Price. Even the low stock price for a year has been mostly been 30% above the Graham Price. I get a 5 year average of the Stock Price being above the Graham Price by some 7%, but this is because we have been in a recession and the stock price has been quite low.
For the dividend yield, the current yield of 3.4% is slightly above the 5 year average of 3.2%. The last thing to look at is the Price/Book Value ratio. The currently Price/Book Value of 2.57 is just above the 10 year average of 2.49. Looking at all these things, it would seem that the stock price is probably a fair one.
So what do the analysts say? Their recommendations go from Strong Buy to Buy to Hold. I cannot find any other ratings. The ones giving Hold recommendations do not see the price of this stock appreciating much more in the next 12 months. The ones with the Strong Buy or Buy recommendations mention the recent increase in dividends. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The consensus recommendation is probably a Buy. I should point out that there are lots of analysts following this stock and a lot of them do have a Hold recommendation. All the analysts seem to think that this is a safe stock to have.
I am pleased with my investment in this company and I plan to continue to hold what shares I have.
Enbridge is focused on three core businesses of crude oil and liquids pipelines, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas distribution. They operate in Canada and US. Its web site is www.enbridge.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/enb.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets and my investing notes at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
When I look at Insider Buying and Insider Selling, I see that there is some $25M of insider selling. However, the executives of this company have more stock options than actual shares. What they are selling are their stock options. This is not great, but it really does not tell you much. What the company thinks of their shares is more clearly stated in the recent increase in dividends. The recent dividend increase says the company thinks it will be doing well over the next little while.
The next thing to look at is the P/E ratio. Since all the estimates I can find are based on adjusted earnings, I will look at the associated P/E with adjusted EPS. Ratios are often relative. The 5 year low P/E is 18 and the current P/E is 18.9. The 5 year average high is 23.3. All these P/Es are on the high side for P/E ratios. However, on a relative basis, the P/E on this stock is on the low side. Then again, if you look at the P/E based on the real earnings, the P/E is just 11.6 and this is on the low side.
I get a Graham Price for 2009 of $42.86. The current stock price is $48.66. The current stock price is 15% above the Graham Price. For this stock, the stock price has been consistently above the Graham Price. Even the low stock price for a year has been mostly been 30% above the Graham Price. I get a 5 year average of the Stock Price being above the Graham Price by some 7%, but this is because we have been in a recession and the stock price has been quite low.
For the dividend yield, the current yield of 3.4% is slightly above the 5 year average of 3.2%. The last thing to look at is the Price/Book Value ratio. The currently Price/Book Value of 2.57 is just above the 10 year average of 2.49. Looking at all these things, it would seem that the stock price is probably a fair one.
So what do the analysts say? Their recommendations go from Strong Buy to Buy to Hold. I cannot find any other ratings. The ones giving Hold recommendations do not see the price of this stock appreciating much more in the next 12 months. The ones with the Strong Buy or Buy recommendations mention the recent increase in dividends. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The consensus recommendation is probably a Buy. I should point out that there are lots of analysts following this stock and a lot of them do have a Hold recommendation. All the analysts seem to think that this is a safe stock to have.
I am pleased with my investment in this company and I plan to continue to hold what shares I have.
Enbridge is focused on three core businesses of crude oil and liquids pipelines, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas distribution. They operate in Canada and US. Its web site is www.enbridge.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/enb.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets and my investing notes at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Enbridge Inc
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-ENB) today as the annual reported for December 2009 has been published and this is a stock that I own. I bought shares in this company in for the first time July 2005 and I purchases more stock in November 2008 and January 2009. To date I have made a return of 11.3% per year. I am making a yield of 4.4% on my investment. About 3% per year of the return on this investment is in dividends and the rest being in capital gain.
All the growth figures on this stock are very good. The odd thing about this stock is that the company provides two earnings figures, one the regular one required re GAAP and also an adjusted earnings figure. Most analysts that follow this company give earnings estimates based on adjusted earnings. According to the company, to get the adjusted earnings, they adjust their earnings for non-recurring or non-operating factors. My spreadsheet gives the full definition of these adjusted earnings.
This company is on dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). The great thing about this company is that they give a decent dividend yield of just over 3% per year and the dividend has been increasing at around 10% per year. Even during the recent recession, they increase their dividends. They have also increased their dividends for the current year by some 14.9%. The Return on Equity for this company is also very good at 21.4% for the year ending in 2009 and the 5 year average is 17%.
On the negative side, the Liquidity ratio is a bit low at 0.95; however, the current assets can be covered by the cash flow generated by the company. The Asset/Liability ratio is also a bit low at 1.35. I like to see this ratio at 1.50. The other negative is the high accrual ratio of 10%. With high accrual ratio, you wonder if the earnings are a proper reflection of what a company is actually earning. However, this company seems to deflect this concerning in giving an adjust earnings which many analysts rely on.
Needless to say, I am pleased with my investment in this company and I plan to continue to hold what shares I have.
Enbridge is focused on three core businesses of crude oil and liquids pipelines, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas distribution. They operate in Canada and US. Its web site is www.enbridge.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/enb.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets. Also, look at other investing notes on my website at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
All the growth figures on this stock are very good. The odd thing about this stock is that the company provides two earnings figures, one the regular one required re GAAP and also an adjusted earnings figure. Most analysts that follow this company give earnings estimates based on adjusted earnings. According to the company, to get the adjusted earnings, they adjust their earnings for non-recurring or non-operating factors. My spreadsheet gives the full definition of these adjusted earnings.
This company is on dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). The great thing about this company is that they give a decent dividend yield of just over 3% per year and the dividend has been increasing at around 10% per year. Even during the recent recession, they increase their dividends. They have also increased their dividends for the current year by some 14.9%. The Return on Equity for this company is also very good at 21.4% for the year ending in 2009 and the 5 year average is 17%.
On the negative side, the Liquidity ratio is a bit low at 0.95; however, the current assets can be covered by the cash flow generated by the company. The Asset/Liability ratio is also a bit low at 1.35. I like to see this ratio at 1.50. The other negative is the high accrual ratio of 10%. With high accrual ratio, you wonder if the earnings are a proper reflection of what a company is actually earning. However, this company seems to deflect this concerning in giving an adjust earnings which many analysts rely on.
Needless to say, I am pleased with my investment in this company and I plan to continue to hold what shares I have.
Enbridge is focused on three core businesses of crude oil and liquids pipelines, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas distribution. They operate in Canada and US. Its web site is www.enbridge.com/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/enb.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets. Also, look at other investing notes on my website at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Canadian Real Estate Inv 2
I am continuing my reviewing this stock (TSX-REF.UN) today as the annual reported for December 2009 has been published and this is a stock that I own. I bought shares in this company in September 2006 and my total return to date has been 7% per year. Dividends are good and it is a diversification away from banks and utility stock.
When I look at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling report, I find that over the past year there has been Insider Buying of around $1.1M. All this buying occurred in the early part of 2009 when the stock price was a bit lower at about $20 to $24. There recently has been a very small amount of Insider Selling by a director. The dividend was increase last year by a fairly normal 1.5% so this shows the management of the company feels confident enough to raise dividends.
When looking at the P/E ratio, the 5 average low is 16.8 and the 5 year average high is 23.6. The current P/E is higher than this at 25.3. The problem is that Earnings are expected to be much lower in 2010 than they were in 2009. If you look at the P/Funds from Operations ratio, the 5 year low average of 10.6 is much closer to the current P/FFO of 12 and this is lower than the 5 year high average of 14.8. This is because the company’s FFO is expected to be about the same as last year.
If you look at the dividend yield, the current one at 5% is just a bit lower than the 5 year average of 5.3%. However, a good current stock price for buying would have a higher yield than the 5 year average. Because the Book Value is not growing much, the Graham Price is above the current stock price. For 2010, I get a Graham Price of $16.91. The Graham Price for 2009 was higher at $19.29. The current price is only some 44% above the 2009 Graham Price. It is much farther away from the 2010 Graham Price. The other thing is that it is April and you do not tend to get the best stock prices in April. It’s that seasonality thing with the stock market.
So, what do the analysts recommend? When I look at the recommendations, I find lots of Strong Buys, some Buys and lots of Holds. I also find one Sell recommendation. The consensus recommendation will be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The most common remark on this stock is that the dividend is good and it is secure.
I intend to continue to hold my shares, as the dividends are good and this stock is to diversify my portfolio.
This company is on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices) because they consistently raise their dividend every year. I also noted that the blog Think Dividends has recently mentioned this stock.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties. It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. This stock is rated STA-3M by DBRS. Its web site is www.creit.ca/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ref.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets. Also, look at other investing notes on my website at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
When I look at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling report, I find that over the past year there has been Insider Buying of around $1.1M. All this buying occurred in the early part of 2009 when the stock price was a bit lower at about $20 to $24. There recently has been a very small amount of Insider Selling by a director. The dividend was increase last year by a fairly normal 1.5% so this shows the management of the company feels confident enough to raise dividends.
When looking at the P/E ratio, the 5 average low is 16.8 and the 5 year average high is 23.6. The current P/E is higher than this at 25.3. The problem is that Earnings are expected to be much lower in 2010 than they were in 2009. If you look at the P/Funds from Operations ratio, the 5 year low average of 10.6 is much closer to the current P/FFO of 12 and this is lower than the 5 year high average of 14.8. This is because the company’s FFO is expected to be about the same as last year.
If you look at the dividend yield, the current one at 5% is just a bit lower than the 5 year average of 5.3%. However, a good current stock price for buying would have a higher yield than the 5 year average. Because the Book Value is not growing much, the Graham Price is above the current stock price. For 2010, I get a Graham Price of $16.91. The Graham Price for 2009 was higher at $19.29. The current price is only some 44% above the 2009 Graham Price. It is much farther away from the 2010 Graham Price. The other thing is that it is April and you do not tend to get the best stock prices in April. It’s that seasonality thing with the stock market.
So, what do the analysts recommend? When I look at the recommendations, I find lots of Strong Buys, some Buys and lots of Holds. I also find one Sell recommendation. The consensus recommendation will be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The most common remark on this stock is that the dividend is good and it is secure.
I intend to continue to hold my shares, as the dividends are good and this stock is to diversify my portfolio.
This company is on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices) because they consistently raise their dividend every year. I also noted that the blog Think Dividends has recently mentioned this stock.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties. It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. This stock is rated STA-3M by DBRS. Its web site is www.creit.ca/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ref.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets. Also, look at other investing notes on my website at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Canadian Real Estate Investment
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-REF.UN) today as the annual reported for December 2009 has been published and this is a stock that I own. I bought shares in this company in September 2006 and my total return to date has been 7% per year. I noticed that this company usually raises their dividend every year, and this it did also in 2009. The increase was not great as it was just 1.5%, but inflation is very low at present.
Some of the growth figures are good and others not great. Most of the 10 year growth figures are better than the 5 year figures and some visa versa. For example, the earnings growth for the last 5 and 10 years are 10% per year and 6.8% per year, respectively. If you look at the revenue growth for the last 5 and 10 years, they are 8.3% per year and 12% per year. However, when you look at revenue per share, the growth is not nearly as good with the 5 and 10 year growth at 4.8% per year and 4.6% per year. The much lower revenue per share is because the increase in the number of shares over the past 5 and 10 years has averaged 3.4% per year and 7.3% per year, respectively.
The worse growth figures are for the Book Value and this growth has been, over the last 5 and 10 years, 1.4% per year and 1.1% per year. Part of the distributions each year has been assigned to return of capital. Some of the best growth figures are for Total Return. The 5 and 10 year figures for this have been 15.2% per year and 17.7% per year, respectively. The Distributable Income growth has been increasing much faster than distribution growth. For example, the DI growth for the last 5 year has been at 10% per year. However, the problem with DI figures is that it has not been consistently calculated and it is a non-GAAP item.
On this stock, the Asset/Liability ratio is good at 1.55 and has a 5 year average of 1.51. What you want this ratio to be at is 1.50 and it usually is around there, but has, at times dipped a bit lower. The last item to mention is the Return on Equity and this has been good. The ROE for 2009 was 15.3% and the 5 year average is 12.1%. These are both good figures.
I am happy with my investment in this stock and plan to continue to hold my shares. The reason my return has been at 7% per year is that this stock has not done much over the last couple of years. The market has not done much over the last couple of years either. A lot of my money is in financials and utilities, so I have some invested in REITs to give some balance to my portfolio.
This is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties.
It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. This stock is rated STA-3M by DBRS. Its web site is www.creit.ca/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ref.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets. Also, look at other investing notes on my website at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
Some of the growth figures are good and others not great. Most of the 10 year growth figures are better than the 5 year figures and some visa versa. For example, the earnings growth for the last 5 and 10 years are 10% per year and 6.8% per year, respectively. If you look at the revenue growth for the last 5 and 10 years, they are 8.3% per year and 12% per year. However, when you look at revenue per share, the growth is not nearly as good with the 5 and 10 year growth at 4.8% per year and 4.6% per year. The much lower revenue per share is because the increase in the number of shares over the past 5 and 10 years has averaged 3.4% per year and 7.3% per year, respectively.
The worse growth figures are for the Book Value and this growth has been, over the last 5 and 10 years, 1.4% per year and 1.1% per year. Part of the distributions each year has been assigned to return of capital. Some of the best growth figures are for Total Return. The 5 and 10 year figures for this have been 15.2% per year and 17.7% per year, respectively. The Distributable Income growth has been increasing much faster than distribution growth. For example, the DI growth for the last 5 year has been at 10% per year. However, the problem with DI figures is that it has not been consistently calculated and it is a non-GAAP item.
On this stock, the Asset/Liability ratio is good at 1.55 and has a 5 year average of 1.51. What you want this ratio to be at is 1.50 and it usually is around there, but has, at times dipped a bit lower. The last item to mention is the Return on Equity and this has been good. The ROE for 2009 was 15.3% and the 5 year average is 12.1%. These are both good figures.
I am happy with my investment in this stock and plan to continue to hold my shares. The reason my return has been at 7% per year is that this stock has not done much over the last couple of years. The market has not done much over the last couple of years either. A lot of my money is in financials and utilities, so I have some invested in REITs to give some balance to my portfolio.
This is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties.
It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. This stock is rated STA-3M by DBRS. Its web site is www.creit.ca/. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ref.htm .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets. Also, look at other investing notes on my website at www.spbrunner.com/investing.html. Follow me on twitter.
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