Today I want to review CI Financial stock (TSX-CIX) to see what analysts are saying about it. There has been quite a bit of insider buying and selling on this stock. The curious thing is that the buying has been at a higher price than the selling. Buying has been above about $15 and selling has been below $15. However, the selling all occurred after November 2008 and the buying occurred before. The other curious thing is that the current CEO, CFO and directors have all decreased their position in this company in recent months, however, former insiders has recently increased their position in this company. I am not sure what this is telling us.
I have today updated my spreadsheet for the latest report of December 2008. This report came out between me updating my spreadsheet for the last values and now. There are lots of Hold ratings on this stock, and a few Reduce Ratings. The mean rating would be a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) No one expect that this company will have the same earnings and cash flows for 2009 that it had for 2008. Most expect these will be down about 40%.
Are there any good buy indicators on the spreadsheet? The current price is below the Graham Price, but if the earnings are reduced as expected, this Graham Price now shows itself below the current price. The yield is down below the 5 year average, however, this is because it is now a corporation rather than an Income Trust and the dividends have been reduced. The current P/E at 14.5 is below the 5 year average of 17.7. However, 14.5 is not a particularly low P/E rating.
The good thing with the new financials is that the Accrual Rating is much lower at 1.6% than it was, but this ratio is not showing a buy signal. The growth figures on this stock are still great with the annual report for December 2008; however, since no one expects 2009 to be a good year, it makes no sense to commit to this stock at this time.
CI Financial Corp. is a diversified wealth management firm and one of Canada’s largest investment fund companies. CI is an Independent and Canadian-owned company. This company provides investment advisory services to mutual funds sold under the CI, BPI, Signature, Harbour, Synergy and Clarica banners, through independent advisors. It is 37% owned by Sun Life. CI became a public company in June 1994 and it was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. They because an Income Trust in 2006 and effective January 1, 2009, CI converted back to a corporation. Its web site is www.ci.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cix.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Thursday, February 26, 2009
CI Financial
This stock (TSX-CIX) is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com and the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/ (see indices). Today I will review how this stock has done in the past. Tomorrow I will look at it now and for the future. This is also a stock I follow; however, I do not own any.
All my following figures are for the year ending at the last annual statement of December 2007. The revenue growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 26% and 28% per year. The 5 and 10 years growth for Earnings per Share (EPS) was 63% and 40% per year. If you look at the spreadsheet, you will see the huge increase for 2007. The 5 and 10 year figures for Dividend growth is 105% and 70%. However, this will not be maintained as this stock has changed from an Income Trust and the dividends will be decreased considerably.
The 5 and 10 year figures for the stock price growth was 23% and 31% per year. The stock is now down 50%, but this has more to do with this being a financial stock and the bear market, than the fact that dividends are down due to change to the company’s structure from an Income Trust to a corporation. The 5 and 10 year figures for cash flow is 9% and 20% per year. The 5 and 10 years for Book Value growth is 23% and 28% per year. All the figures above are more than great, but they will moderate as this company comes out of the bear market and resumes its business as a corporation. They have already pulled back on the Dividends.
The Return on Equity (ROE) is also very good as it is 43% for 2007 and the 5 year average is 22.8%. The Liquidity Ratio is low at .79 and it is lower than the 5 year average of .97. What I like to see is a Liquidity Ratio of at least 1.50. The Asset/Liability Ratio is very good at 1.67. This is also down from the 5 year average of 2.27, but any ratio over 1.50 is good here also.
The only thing really to complain about is the Accrual Ratio that is at 7.89%. With this figure, anything over 5% is very high. I also note that the 2008 Report has just come out, so I will review that tomorrow. Some this stocks growth figures are truly great. I have looked at this stock before, but for a while it seemed to be doing nothing much. However, it has certainly done well of late.
CI Financial Corp. is a diversified wealth management firm and one of Canada’s largest investment fund companies. CI is an Independent and Canadian-owned company. It is 37% owned by Sun Life. CI became a public company in June 1994 and it was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. They because an Income Trust in 2006 and effective January 1, 2009, CI converted back to a corporation. Its web site is www.ci.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cix.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
All my following figures are for the year ending at the last annual statement of December 2007. The revenue growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 26% and 28% per year. The 5 and 10 years growth for Earnings per Share (EPS) was 63% and 40% per year. If you look at the spreadsheet, you will see the huge increase for 2007. The 5 and 10 year figures for Dividend growth is 105% and 70%. However, this will not be maintained as this stock has changed from an Income Trust and the dividends will be decreased considerably.
The 5 and 10 year figures for the stock price growth was 23% and 31% per year. The stock is now down 50%, but this has more to do with this being a financial stock and the bear market, than the fact that dividends are down due to change to the company’s structure from an Income Trust to a corporation. The 5 and 10 year figures for cash flow is 9% and 20% per year. The 5 and 10 years for Book Value growth is 23% and 28% per year. All the figures above are more than great, but they will moderate as this company comes out of the bear market and resumes its business as a corporation. They have already pulled back on the Dividends.
The Return on Equity (ROE) is also very good as it is 43% for 2007 and the 5 year average is 22.8%. The Liquidity Ratio is low at .79 and it is lower than the 5 year average of .97. What I like to see is a Liquidity Ratio of at least 1.50. The Asset/Liability Ratio is very good at 1.67. This is also down from the 5 year average of 2.27, but any ratio over 1.50 is good here also.
The only thing really to complain about is the Accrual Ratio that is at 7.89%. With this figure, anything over 5% is very high. I also note that the 2008 Report has just come out, so I will review that tomorrow. Some this stocks growth figures are truly great. I have looked at this stock before, but for a while it seemed to be doing nothing much. However, it has certainly done well of late.
CI Financial Corp. is a diversified wealth management firm and one of Canada’s largest investment fund companies. CI is an Independent and Canadian-owned company. It is 37% owned by Sun Life. CI became a public company in June 1994 and it was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. They because an Income Trust in 2006 and effective January 1, 2009, CI converted back to a corporation. Its web site is www.ci.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cix.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
BCE Inc 2
I had a note on my calendar to take another look at this stock (TSX-BCE) after the December 2008 report was to be posted on February 11th. I had a chance to look at this today. What I do not like is that they have not produced proper annual statements. The analysts I have reviewed seem satisfied however. I still have questions on some figures and some are still in purple in my spreadsheet because I am unsure that I have the right figures.
The big question I have is what the EPS is for 2008. Some places show $2.25 and some show $1.01 or $1.02. I am not sure. The other things I do not have are cash flow figures as there is no proper cash flow statement. I have updated my spreadsheet on this stock as best as I can.
What analysts seem to expect for 2009 is that the stock price will go up to around $30.00. This is the same as the current Graham Price. Analysts seem about evenly divided into those that think this stock is a Hold and those that think this stock is a Strong Buy. There are also some Buy ratings on this stock. This is why the consensus rating on this stock is a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
What I look at is how a stock will do for me from now on. I must admit that I am a bit concerned, and this is why I have come back to review this stock. The consensus seems to be that it will do fine in the future. At the moment, I am going to continue to hold this stock, but I might decide to review this decision in the future. The telecommunication section has been a tough one for a while and I wonder if there is a reasonable change of making decent money in it.
This company has not been making any money for its shareholders for the last few years. It only spiked in price recently because of the buy-out. Since that has gone away, the price has dropped considerably. However, few companies are making money for their shareholders at this time. I am willing to give it some more time.
BCE Inc. is a communications company. Through Bell Canada, BCE provides local telephone, long distance, wireless communications, Internet access, data, video and other services to residential and business customers. Additional subsidiaries include Bell Globemedia, a media company that includes CTV and the Globe and Mail. Its web site is www.bce.ca. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bce.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
The big question I have is what the EPS is for 2008. Some places show $2.25 and some show $1.01 or $1.02. I am not sure. The other things I do not have are cash flow figures as there is no proper cash flow statement. I have updated my spreadsheet on this stock as best as I can.
What analysts seem to expect for 2009 is that the stock price will go up to around $30.00. This is the same as the current Graham Price. Analysts seem about evenly divided into those that think this stock is a Hold and those that think this stock is a Strong Buy. There are also some Buy ratings on this stock. This is why the consensus rating on this stock is a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
What I look at is how a stock will do for me from now on. I must admit that I am a bit concerned, and this is why I have come back to review this stock. The consensus seems to be that it will do fine in the future. At the moment, I am going to continue to hold this stock, but I might decide to review this decision in the future. The telecommunication section has been a tough one for a while and I wonder if there is a reasonable change of making decent money in it.
This company has not been making any money for its shareholders for the last few years. It only spiked in price recently because of the buy-out. Since that has gone away, the price has dropped considerably. However, few companies are making money for their shareholders at this time. I am willing to give it some more time.
BCE Inc. is a communications company. Through Bell Canada, BCE provides local telephone, long distance, wireless communications, Internet access, data, video and other services to residential and business customers. Additional subsidiaries include Bell Globemedia, a media company that includes CTV and the Globe and Mail. Its web site is www.bce.ca. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bce.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Bell Aliant 2
Today I am going to look at what analysts are saying about this stock (TSX-BA.UN). Is it a good buy now? The first thing I looked at was insider buying and selling. There is very little going on as far as insider buying and selling is concerned. There is a bit more insider selling, but the activity is small. Basically, we can learn nothing from this. The last distribution increase was in February 2008 when the distributions were increased by 2.8%. It is likely that the distribution level will have to be cut back when the new tax laws kick in for Income Trusts in 2013. I have updated my spreadsheet for with more estimates.
In looking at earnings, no one seems to expect that Bell Aliant will earn as much in 2009 as it did in 2008. Earnings in 2007 we unusually high, but both 2008 and 2009 is expected to be higher than 2006. More importantly, people expect the cash flow to be quite a bit lower for 2009 than it was in 2008. For Income Trust companies, cash flow is more important than earnings.
As far as the ratings go on this stock, there are some Strong Buy ratings, a few Buy ratings and quite a few Hold ratings on this stock. The consensus rating on this stock is a Buy, but is it just into the Buy territory. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Looking at the ratios on this stock, current P/E of 14 is lower than the 5 year average of 18 and this point to a current good price. Also, the current yield is almost 12% against the 5 year average of 7.5% so this also points to a good price. Also, Graham price is $35.20, which is quite a bit higher than the actual price of $24.35. This also point to a good price. Personally, I see nothing about this stock than would make me want to go out and buy some. This is probably why this stock has so many Hold ratings.
Looking at the charts, I compared this stock with the TSX and TSX Utilities. For the Year-to-date, 1 and 3 year periods, it has done better than both have. When looking at a longer range of the 5 and 10 year periods, this stock has done worse than both these indexes. The basic reason for the above is that Bell Aliant has not done as badly in this latest bear market as the TSX and TSX Utilities indexes.
Aliant is one of North America's largest regional communications providers serving customers in six Canadian provinces with information, communications and technology services, including voice, data, Internet, video and value-added business solutions. Through their information technology division, xwave, they also provide IT professional services in Canada and the United States. Its web site is www.bell.aliant.ca. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ba.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
In looking at earnings, no one seems to expect that Bell Aliant will earn as much in 2009 as it did in 2008. Earnings in 2007 we unusually high, but both 2008 and 2009 is expected to be higher than 2006. More importantly, people expect the cash flow to be quite a bit lower for 2009 than it was in 2008. For Income Trust companies, cash flow is more important than earnings.
As far as the ratings go on this stock, there are some Strong Buy ratings, a few Buy ratings and quite a few Hold ratings on this stock. The consensus rating on this stock is a Buy, but is it just into the Buy territory. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Looking at the ratios on this stock, current P/E of 14 is lower than the 5 year average of 18 and this point to a current good price. Also, the current yield is almost 12% against the 5 year average of 7.5% so this also points to a good price. Also, Graham price is $35.20, which is quite a bit higher than the actual price of $24.35. This also point to a good price. Personally, I see nothing about this stock than would make me want to go out and buy some. This is probably why this stock has so many Hold ratings.
Looking at the charts, I compared this stock with the TSX and TSX Utilities. For the Year-to-date, 1 and 3 year periods, it has done better than both have. When looking at a longer range of the 5 and 10 year periods, this stock has done worse than both these indexes. The basic reason for the above is that Bell Aliant has not done as badly in this latest bear market as the TSX and TSX Utilities indexes.
Aliant is one of North America's largest regional communications providers serving customers in six Canadian provinces with information, communications and technology services, including voice, data, Internet, video and value-added business solutions. Through their information technology division, xwave, they also provide IT professional services in Canada and the United States. Its web site is www.bell.aliant.ca. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ba.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Bell Aliant
I am reviewing this stock today (TSX-BA.UN) as it is a stock I follow. I got some of this stock from BCE, but I sold what I have in an odd lot offer from Bell Aliant. When I got the stock in November 2006, the ACB was set at $33.36 a share and when I sold it at the end of January 2008, I got $26.95 a share. I had small lots of this stock and at the time of the odd lot offer, most people had a Hold rating on this stock. I got dividends on this stock and according to quicken, I lost almost 5% per annum on this holding.
All my following figures are for the year ending at the last annual statement of December 2008. The results for December 2008 are unaudited and incomplete, so I have updated the spreadsheet as best as I can. First, what I find good about this stock. The Dividend growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 21% and 14%. The Book Value growth for the last 5 and 20 years was 21% and 14% and these are great figures. The cash flow growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 8% and 8.5%. Also, the Accruals are a negative number. If would be nice if the Accrual ration was below 5%, but -3.5% is not bad, as it is at least negative.
Revenue growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 9.6% and 6.6%. The 5 year figure is good, while the 10 year figure is ok. The Closing Price growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 1% and 7.3%. For the last 10 years, the stock has had high and lows, but has seldom been outside a band from about $25 to $35. You might want to buy this stock at its lows and sell at its high, but it does not seem to be to be a buy and hold type stock. The dividends have added about 5% of the return for the last 5 and 10 years. You would want, at a minimum a 7% to 8% on such a stock, and I do not see this stock producing this type of return over the long term. On the other had, the average 5 year yield on this stock is 7.5%, which is not bad.
The Asset/Liability Ratio is good at 2.56; however, the Liquidity is low at .56. It is desirable that both these ratios be 1.50 or higher. The Return on Equity (ROE) for 2007 and the average for the last 5 years is 6.6% and 23.5%. The 5 year average is good, but the one for 2008 is low. The growth in Earnings per Share for the last 5 and 10 years was -2% and 4%. I must admit that I guessed at the 2008 figure as it is not available anywhere. I suspect it is not available as it is much lower than last year, but is higher than 2006. In Unit Trust companies, the cash flow is much more important, as is the Distributable cash and these figures are not bad. However, the stock price seems to be going nowhere.
I will take about what the analysts say tomorrow.
Aliant is one of North America's largest regional communications providers serving customers in six Canadian provinces with information, communications and technology services, including voice, data, Internet, video and value-added business solutions. Through their information technology division, xwave, they also provide IT professional services in Canada and the United States. Its web site is www.bell.aliant.ca. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ba.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
All my following figures are for the year ending at the last annual statement of December 2008. The results for December 2008 are unaudited and incomplete, so I have updated the spreadsheet as best as I can. First, what I find good about this stock. The Dividend growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 21% and 14%. The Book Value growth for the last 5 and 20 years was 21% and 14% and these are great figures. The cash flow growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 8% and 8.5%. Also, the Accruals are a negative number. If would be nice if the Accrual ration was below 5%, but -3.5% is not bad, as it is at least negative.
Revenue growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 9.6% and 6.6%. The 5 year figure is good, while the 10 year figure is ok. The Closing Price growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 1% and 7.3%. For the last 10 years, the stock has had high and lows, but has seldom been outside a band from about $25 to $35. You might want to buy this stock at its lows and sell at its high, but it does not seem to be to be a buy and hold type stock. The dividends have added about 5% of the return for the last 5 and 10 years. You would want, at a minimum a 7% to 8% on such a stock, and I do not see this stock producing this type of return over the long term. On the other had, the average 5 year yield on this stock is 7.5%, which is not bad.
The Asset/Liability Ratio is good at 2.56; however, the Liquidity is low at .56. It is desirable that both these ratios be 1.50 or higher. The Return on Equity (ROE) for 2007 and the average for the last 5 years is 6.6% and 23.5%. The 5 year average is good, but the one for 2008 is low. The growth in Earnings per Share for the last 5 and 10 years was -2% and 4%. I must admit that I guessed at the 2008 figure as it is not available anywhere. I suspect it is not available as it is much lower than last year, but is higher than 2006. In Unit Trust companies, the cash flow is much more important, as is the Distributable cash and these figures are not bad. However, the stock price seems to be going nowhere.
I will take about what the analysts say tomorrow.
Aliant is one of North America's largest regional communications providers serving customers in six Canadian provinces with information, communications and technology services, including voice, data, Internet, video and value-added business solutions. Through their information technology division, xwave, they also provide IT professional services in Canada and the United States. Its web site is www.bell.aliant.ca. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ba.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Bulls, Bears and Chickens (or Pigs)
What I want to talk about this afternoon is the saying, Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Chickens get slaughtered. There is a variation on this of Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered.
The Bulls are an optimistic sort. They believe that stocks markets will go up. This does not mean you have to be a high-risk individual. You can invest in high quality stock and still be a bull. If you buy quality stocks, you will have little to fear from bear markets. For bulls, bear markets can offer great stocks at great prices. In Bear markets, all stocks tend to fall, whether they deserve to or not. Bear markets can then offer wonderful, once in a life time opportunities. The only reason you want to sell in a Bear market is if a stock you are holding turns out to be a real dog. You also might want to sell a stock, if another stocks looks like it is a better one for the future. You may sell low, but you can buy low, so this would be a wash, sort of. You should also remember that it is very easy to picks winners in a bull market. It is much harder to pick winners for the long term or in difficult markets.
Bears are pessimistic. Some people seem to be perpetual bears, always believing that bad thinks are around the corner. However, some are just realistic. We do have down markets and you can make money in down markets. People can make money in a bear market by what is called “short selling”. This is borrowing a stock to sell, that you will buy back later. If the stock falls in price, you will earn money. Say you borrow a stock and sell it at $10 a share. Later, if you buy it back at $5.00 you will make a $5.00 profit on each share. Another strategy is to wait until you feel the bear market is over and try to buy stocks at its end. However, it is difficult for anyone to tell when a bear market will end.
Pigs tend to be greedy. They are looking for the big kill. Once markets go up, they tend to think that this will happen for ever. You need to be reasonable in your expectations, and you need to know your history. No market will go continually up. Not only are pigs greedy, but they also tend to get emotional and impatient. They buy on hot tips, rather than personal research, or creating a plan with a financial planner. They forget that you should never, ever, invest in anything you do not understand. They should be more cautious and if a stock has a huge run up, it might be wise to take some money off the table. Pigs are the biggest losers in the market.
Chickens tend to buy too high and sell too low. This is because they tend to buy at market highs and sell at market lows. They tend to sell everything into bear markets and run for cover. Chickens often wait far too long into a bear market and sell far too late. This is why the saying has that “chickens get slaughtered”. If you have high quality stocks, do not sell into a falling market. I believe that you should never buy anything that disturbs your sleep. You can buy some guaranteed mutual fund products, and other guaranteed products, but the guarantees come at a price and are only sold by insurance companies. You may never make much money if you are void the market and never take any risk. There is nothing in life that is risk free.
What I am is a long term bull. When I buy stocks, what I am buying is a future income stream. However, there is no guarantee that my purchases will result in a future income steam. But if you take no risks, you will not earn much. I do my homework and research stocks I want to buy. I sometimes make mistakes, and hopefully I learn from them. I do not try to buy at the bottom and sell at the time. What I try to do is find good quality stocks at a good price. If I have a stock that runs far to high, I often sell some of it (that is take money off the table).
There is an article about this subject at Investopedia. There is also a Wikipedia for investors that is at www.wikinvest.com/ . There is also a book on this subject called "Bulls Make Money Bears Make Money Pigs Get Slaughtered" by Anthony Gallea. It is available at Amazon, see my site for information.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
The Bulls are an optimistic sort. They believe that stocks markets will go up. This does not mean you have to be a high-risk individual. You can invest in high quality stock and still be a bull. If you buy quality stocks, you will have little to fear from bear markets. For bulls, bear markets can offer great stocks at great prices. In Bear markets, all stocks tend to fall, whether they deserve to or not. Bear markets can then offer wonderful, once in a life time opportunities. The only reason you want to sell in a Bear market is if a stock you are holding turns out to be a real dog. You also might want to sell a stock, if another stocks looks like it is a better one for the future. You may sell low, but you can buy low, so this would be a wash, sort of. You should also remember that it is very easy to picks winners in a bull market. It is much harder to pick winners for the long term or in difficult markets.
Bears are pessimistic. Some people seem to be perpetual bears, always believing that bad thinks are around the corner. However, some are just realistic. We do have down markets and you can make money in down markets. People can make money in a bear market by what is called “short selling”. This is borrowing a stock to sell, that you will buy back later. If the stock falls in price, you will earn money. Say you borrow a stock and sell it at $10 a share. Later, if you buy it back at $5.00 you will make a $5.00 profit on each share. Another strategy is to wait until you feel the bear market is over and try to buy stocks at its end. However, it is difficult for anyone to tell when a bear market will end.
Pigs tend to be greedy. They are looking for the big kill. Once markets go up, they tend to think that this will happen for ever. You need to be reasonable in your expectations, and you need to know your history. No market will go continually up. Not only are pigs greedy, but they also tend to get emotional and impatient. They buy on hot tips, rather than personal research, or creating a plan with a financial planner. They forget that you should never, ever, invest in anything you do not understand. They should be more cautious and if a stock has a huge run up, it might be wise to take some money off the table. Pigs are the biggest losers in the market.
Chickens tend to buy too high and sell too low. This is because they tend to buy at market highs and sell at market lows. They tend to sell everything into bear markets and run for cover. Chickens often wait far too long into a bear market and sell far too late. This is why the saying has that “chickens get slaughtered”. If you have high quality stocks, do not sell into a falling market. I believe that you should never buy anything that disturbs your sleep. You can buy some guaranteed mutual fund products, and other guaranteed products, but the guarantees come at a price and are only sold by insurance companies. You may never make much money if you are void the market and never take any risk. There is nothing in life that is risk free.
What I am is a long term bull. When I buy stocks, what I am buying is a future income stream. However, there is no guarantee that my purchases will result in a future income steam. But if you take no risks, you will not earn much. I do my homework and research stocks I want to buy. I sometimes make mistakes, and hopefully I learn from them. I do not try to buy at the bottom and sell at the time. What I try to do is find good quality stocks at a good price. If I have a stock that runs far to high, I often sell some of it (that is take money off the table).
There is an article about this subject at Investopedia. There is also a Wikipedia for investors that is at www.wikinvest.com/ . There is also a book on this subject called "Bulls Make Money Bears Make Money Pigs Get Slaughtered" by Anthony Gallea. It is available at Amazon, see my site for information.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Finning International Inc. 2
Today I am going to look at what analysts are saying about this stock (TSX-FTT). Is it a good buy now? The first thing I looked at was insider buying and selling. There was quite a bit of insider selling last May and June by the CEO and some Directors. Since then, there has been some buying. Management has signaled that they have faith in the company by increasing the dividend from $.36 a share to $.44, which is an increase of over 22%. I have updated my spreadsheet for the 4th Quarterly Report on this stock. This report is unaudited and I had to put some annual figures together using all the quarterly reports.
In looking at earnings, Finning had earnings of only $.55 for 2008, compared to $1.53 for 2007. The main cause was goodwill write off and restructuring. Analysts seem to feel that this company will not be back to the 2007 earnings until 2010. There is a wide variance in what people expect this company to earn.
As far as the ratings go on this stock, there are Strong Buy ratings, Buy ratings and Hold ratings on this stock. This mean rating on this stock is a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Looking at the ratios on this stock, current P/E of 9 is lower than the 5 year average of 22 and this point to a current good price. Also, the current yield is 3% against the 5 year average of 1.5% so this also points to a good price. A problem is the Graham price, which has come down considerable because of the low EPS. However, the last one of $17, which will return with better earnings, is better than the current price of $12.76. To me, the negative for this stock is the inconsistent cash flow.
Looking at the charts, I compared this stock with the TSX, TSX Industrials and Toromont Industries. Except for the 10 year period, it has done worse than all these. In the 10 year period is has just done worse than Toromont. The main reason is that this company has been hit hard by the latest bear market. There are probably lots of Buy ratings on this stock as analysts expect that it will do much better when this bear market is over.
This company sells, rents and provides customer support services for Caterpillar equipment and engines. They cover Canada, UK, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay. Its web site is www.finning.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ftt.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
In looking at earnings, Finning had earnings of only $.55 for 2008, compared to $1.53 for 2007. The main cause was goodwill write off and restructuring. Analysts seem to feel that this company will not be back to the 2007 earnings until 2010. There is a wide variance in what people expect this company to earn.
As far as the ratings go on this stock, there are Strong Buy ratings, Buy ratings and Hold ratings on this stock. This mean rating on this stock is a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Looking at the ratios on this stock, current P/E of 9 is lower than the 5 year average of 22 and this point to a current good price. Also, the current yield is 3% against the 5 year average of 1.5% so this also points to a good price. A problem is the Graham price, which has come down considerable because of the low EPS. However, the last one of $17, which will return with better earnings, is better than the current price of $12.76. To me, the negative for this stock is the inconsistent cash flow.
Looking at the charts, I compared this stock with the TSX, TSX Industrials and Toromont Industries. Except for the 10 year period, it has done worse than all these. In the 10 year period is has just done worse than Toromont. The main reason is that this company has been hit hard by the latest bear market. There are probably lots of Buy ratings on this stock as analysts expect that it will do much better when this bear market is over.
This company sells, rents and provides customer support services for Caterpillar equipment and engines. They cover Canada, UK, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay. Its web site is www.finning.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ftt.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Finning International Inc.
I am reviewing this stock today (TSX-FTT) as it is a stock I follow. This is also a dividend paying stock and it is on is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com. I do not own any of this stock as the company is quite similar to Toromont, which I do own.
All my following figures are for the year ending at the last annual statement of December 2007 as the report for 2008 is not yet out. First, what I find good about this stock. Revenue growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 12% and 9.3%. The Earnings per Share (EPS) growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 12.7% and 9%. The Dividend growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 19% and 13.6%. The Closing Price growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 18.9% and 13%. The Book Value growth for the last 5 and 10 years was not bad at8.99% and 7.7%.
The Asset/Liability Ratio is good at 1.64; however, the Liquidity is low at 1.30. It is desirable that both these ratios be 1.50 or higher. The Return on Equity (ROE) for 2007 and the average for the last 5 years is 17.% and 12.9% and these figures are not bad. The Accrual Ratio at 3.71% is not bad.
The main problem I see with stock is the lack of consistency and lack of growth in the cash flow. Growth and consistency in the cash flow is more important than in the EPS. It also has low liquidity figure and this is not good in a bear market. Tomorrow, I will review the latest quarterly report and look what stock analysts are saying about this stock.
This company sells, rents and provides customer support services for Caterpillar equipment and engines. They cover Canada, UK, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay. Its web site is www.finning.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ftt.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
All my following figures are for the year ending at the last annual statement of December 2007 as the report for 2008 is not yet out. First, what I find good about this stock. Revenue growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 12% and 9.3%. The Earnings per Share (EPS) growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 12.7% and 9%. The Dividend growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 19% and 13.6%. The Closing Price growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 18.9% and 13%. The Book Value growth for the last 5 and 10 years was not bad at8.99% and 7.7%.
The Asset/Liability Ratio is good at 1.64; however, the Liquidity is low at 1.30. It is desirable that both these ratios be 1.50 or higher. The Return on Equity (ROE) for 2007 and the average for the last 5 years is 17.% and 12.9% and these figures are not bad. The Accrual Ratio at 3.71% is not bad.
The main problem I see with stock is the lack of consistency and lack of growth in the cash flow. Growth and consistency in the cash flow is more important than in the EPS. It also has low liquidity figure and this is not good in a bear market. Tomorrow, I will review the latest quarterly report and look what stock analysts are saying about this stock.
This company sells, rents and provides customer support services for Caterpillar equipment and engines. They cover Canada, UK, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay. Its web site is www.finning.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ftt.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
ATCO Ltd 2
Today I am going to look at what analysts are saying about this stock (TSX-ACO.X). Is it a good buy now? The first thing I looked at was insider buying and selling. There is quite of bit of insider buying and very little insider selling. Management has signaled that they have faith in the company by increasing the dividend from $.88 a share to $1.00, which is an increase of over 13%. I have updated my spreadsheet for the 3rd Quarterly Report on this stock.
In looking at earnings, everyone seems to expect that this company will earn less in 2008 than in 2007 and even a lower amount in 2009. However, there is a wide variance in what people expect this company to earn. Some analysts expect the cash flow to be lower in 2008 and 2009 than for 2007. However, some expect that it will be higher.
As far as the ratings go on this stock, there are Strong Buy ratings and Hold ratings on this stock and a few Buy ratings. This mean rating on this stock is tending towards a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Looking at the ratios on this stock, current P/E of 8.8 is lower than the 5 year average of 13 and this point to a current good price. Also, the current yield is 2.7% against the 5 year average of 2% so this also points to a good price. The last thing to mentions is that the Graham price of $52.42 is quite a bit above the current price of $36.29. This high Graham price also points to the stock being a good buy. The negatives for this stock and probably why it is rated a Hold is that the EPS are expect to go lower in the near term.
Looking at the charts, this stock has done better than the TSX and the TSX Utilities Index for all periods of except the 1 year period. For the one year period, it has done better than the TSX and about the same as the TSX Utilities index. This is a utilities stock and they tend to do better in bear markets than the general index. However, they do not do as well in bull markets as the general index. Utilities stocks add stability and dividend income to any portfolio. This is a great stock at a decent and this is probably the reason it is on so many “lists” as I said yesterday.
ATCO LTD. is a management holding company with operating subsidiaries in electric and natural gas utility operations, independent power operations, production, storage, processing, gathering, delivery of natural gas, technical facilities management for the industrial, defense and transportation sectors, the manufacture, sale and leasing of industrial shelters and industrial noise abatement technologies. ATCO has a 52% stake in Canadian Utilities Ltd. The company utilizes a dual share structure and it is effectively controlled by R.D. Southern. Its web site is www.atco.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/aco.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
In looking at earnings, everyone seems to expect that this company will earn less in 2008 than in 2007 and even a lower amount in 2009. However, there is a wide variance in what people expect this company to earn. Some analysts expect the cash flow to be lower in 2008 and 2009 than for 2007. However, some expect that it will be higher.
As far as the ratings go on this stock, there are Strong Buy ratings and Hold ratings on this stock and a few Buy ratings. This mean rating on this stock is tending towards a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Looking at the ratios on this stock, current P/E of 8.8 is lower than the 5 year average of 13 and this point to a current good price. Also, the current yield is 2.7% against the 5 year average of 2% so this also points to a good price. The last thing to mentions is that the Graham price of $52.42 is quite a bit above the current price of $36.29. This high Graham price also points to the stock being a good buy. The negatives for this stock and probably why it is rated a Hold is that the EPS are expect to go lower in the near term.
Looking at the charts, this stock has done better than the TSX and the TSX Utilities Index for all periods of except the 1 year period. For the one year period, it has done better than the TSX and about the same as the TSX Utilities index. This is a utilities stock and they tend to do better in bear markets than the general index. However, they do not do as well in bull markets as the general index. Utilities stocks add stability and dividend income to any portfolio. This is a great stock at a decent and this is probably the reason it is on so many “lists” as I said yesterday.
ATCO LTD. is a management holding company with operating subsidiaries in electric and natural gas utility operations, independent power operations, production, storage, processing, gathering, delivery of natural gas, technical facilities management for the industrial, defense and transportation sectors, the manufacture, sale and leasing of industrial shelters and industrial noise abatement technologies. ATCO has a 52% stake in Canadian Utilities Ltd. The company utilizes a dual share structure and it is effectively controlled by R.D. Southern. Its web site is www.atco.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/aco.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Monday, February 16, 2009
ATCO Ltd
I am reviewing this stock today (TSX-ACO.X) as it is a stock I follow. This is also a dividend paying stock that is on everyone’s list. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and also on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm. Today I will review how this stock has done in the past.
All my following figures are for the year ending at the last annual statement of December 2007 as the report for 2008 is not yet out. First, what I find good about this stock. The Earnings per Share (EPS) growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 9.5% and 12%. The Dividend growth for the last 5 and 10 years is not bad at 8.7% and 11.7%. The Closing Price growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 23% and 15%. The Cash Flow growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 18% and 8%. The Book Value growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 9% and 10%.
The Liquidity is very good at 2.59; however, the Asset/Liability Ratio is low at 1.24. It is desirable that both these ratios be 1.50 or higher. The Return on Equity (ROE) for 2007 and the average for the last 5 years is 16% and this is a good figure. The total accrual figure of Accrual Ratio at 1.56% is not bad.
The main problem I see with stock is the last of revenue growth. The 5 year average of -1.91% is awful, and the 10 year figure of 3.5% is not very good either. Tomorrow, I will review the latest quarterly report and look what stock analysts are saying about this stock.
ATCO LTD. is a management holding company with operating subsidiaries in electric and natural gas utility operations, independent power operations, production, storage, processing, gathering, delivery of natural gas, technical facilities management for the industrial, defense and transportation sectors, the manufacture, sale and leasing of industrial shelters and industrial noise abatement technologies. ATCO has a 52% stake in Canadian Utilities Ltd. The company utilizes a dual share structure and it is effectively controlled by R.D. Southern. Its web site is www.atco.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/aco.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
All my following figures are for the year ending at the last annual statement of December 2007 as the report for 2008 is not yet out. First, what I find good about this stock. The Earnings per Share (EPS) growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 9.5% and 12%. The Dividend growth for the last 5 and 10 years is not bad at 8.7% and 11.7%. The Closing Price growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 23% and 15%. The Cash Flow growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 18% and 8%. The Book Value growth for the last 5 and 10 years was 9% and 10%.
The Liquidity is very good at 2.59; however, the Asset/Liability Ratio is low at 1.24. It is desirable that both these ratios be 1.50 or higher. The Return on Equity (ROE) for 2007 and the average for the last 5 years is 16% and this is a good figure. The total accrual figure of Accrual Ratio at 1.56% is not bad.
The main problem I see with stock is the last of revenue growth. The 5 year average of -1.91% is awful, and the 10 year figure of 3.5% is not very good either. Tomorrow, I will review the latest quarterly report and look what stock analysts are saying about this stock.
ATCO LTD. is a management holding company with operating subsidiaries in electric and natural gas utility operations, independent power operations, production, storage, processing, gathering, delivery of natural gas, technical facilities management for the industrial, defense and transportation sectors, the manufacture, sale and leasing of industrial shelters and industrial noise abatement technologies. ATCO has a 52% stake in Canadian Utilities Ltd. The company utilizes a dual share structure and it is effectively controlled by R.D. Southern. Its web site is www.atco.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/aco.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
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