Monday, June 30, 2008

SNC-Lavalin Update

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional.

I bought this stock (TSX-SNC) in December 1998 and first talked about it on May 24, 2008. It has been a great stock for me, but since it is over 5% of my portfolio and I have concerns about it, today I decided to sell a third of the stock I own. I know that a lot of people still have a buy rating on this stock, but I still find the ratio of book value to price a concern. At the end of 2007, the stock price/book value ratio was almost 8. That is the stock was trading at 8 times book value. This has not changed.

By selling of part of my stock, I lock in the value I have earned on it and lower my exposure.

When I bought this stock, it was more a value type stock than today. At that time, the yield was just over 2%, and now the yield is under 1%. In 1998, the stock was trading at 1.4 times book value, a long distance from the over 8 times book value of today. When I bought this stock, the P/E was at 10, which is also a long way from the 35 it is today. This stock used to have the characteristics of both a value stock and a growth stock, but it seems to have only growth stock characteristics today.

So, even though I have done well by this stock, I think this it is wise to sell some of it.

See my spreadsheet at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/snc.htm. See my website at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html.

This company is involved with engineering and construction work around the world, this includes infrastructure and buildings; infrastructure and construction; power (nuclear, thermal, hydro etc); chemicals and petroleum; environmental projects; and mining and metallurgy projects. They have offices and Canada and around the world, from Algeria to Vietnam, including Australia, Europe, Russia, Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, USA. Its web site is www.snc-lavalin.com.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional.

This is a stock (TSX-CP) that has made me some money this year. Even with today’s prices, the stock increase and dividend since the beginning of the year has produced at return of almost 6%. Not great, but when you consider what other stocks have done, not bad.

All my figures are based on the 5 years ending 2007. What I like about this stock is that, to the end of 2007, the Earnings per Share (EPS) grow nicely at 14% a year. Dividends are increasing well at 12% a year. The closing price has increased at the rate of 16.6% per year. The liquidity of current assets/current liability is low at only .87, but the liquidity of assets/liability is at a not bad 1.57. I like to see both figures at, at least 1.50. The book value (or shareholder’s value) is increasing at a not bad rate of 10.7% a year.

The negatives for this stock are that the revenues are only increasing at 5% a year, but the operation profit margin (OPM) is increasing. The OPM is cash flow/ revenue and when it increases, it means that the company is more efficient. Another negative is that that Accrual Ratio is at 16% and this is quite high. If you look around the internet, you will find that most people have a Hold rating on this stock. This is because everyone expects the EPS to be down in 2008 from 2007. The dividend has already increased this year from $.90 a share to $.99 a share, a 10% increase and the yield is a higher than normal 1.5% (it has in the past varied from 1.2% to 1.4% so this is higher than normal).

I have very little of this stock. I currently will be buying no more. It is hitting a rough patch and it is hard to say how long this will last, as it is partly dependent on the US economy and no one knows when that will recover.

See my spreadsheet at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cp.htm. See my website at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html.

This company is a transcontinental railway operating in Canada and the U.S. Its rail network serves the principal centers of Canada, from Montreal to Vancouver and the U.S. northeast and midwest regions. Alliances with other carriers extend its market reach throughout the U.S. and into Mexico. Canadian Pacific Solutions provides logistics and supply chain expertise. Its web site is www.cpr.ca.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Metro Inc Spreadsheet

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional.

As I mentioned yesterday, this stock has done badly in June. However, I am not going to sell this just over the latest dive. The whole market has been doing badly this summer. I cannot see much happening until the fall.

Since I am not willing to invest in mining or oil on the TSX, to diversify, I have bought into stocks in the Consumer Staples Index. Other than stocks in this index, I have financials, Real Estate, and Utilities. I also have the odd technical stock. This stock is under the Consumer Staples Index. This index has done much worse than the TSX over the last year and also over the last 5 years. At present, this index is back to where it was 5 years ago and this is because of the recent dive in this index.

Now on to what I like about this stock. It is growing its revenue nicely at some 15.6% annually over the last 5 years. The Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth is almost 11% annually over the last 5 years. It is not as good as the revenue growth, but not bad. I very much like the dividend growth of 16% per year over the last 5 years. This stock price grew, to the end of 2007, at the rate of 15% annually over the last 5 years. However, the stock price has come down since then about 30%. We are at present in a bear market and I expect this will improve when the market improves. Note that the Graham price, at the end of 2007 was $30 and this is higher than the current price.

The liquidity re Assets/Liability is fine at 1.8, while the liquidity re current Assets/current liability is low at .99. However, this is not unusual for a merchandising stock. The Accrual ratio at 1.9% is ok. The Return On Equity (ROE) is not bad at 15%, but has been coming down recently. There is good growth in the book value at some 21% annually over the last 5 years.

The problem with this stock is that is growth has slowed. The revenue did not grow for 2007 and it is expected that the EPS will not grow in 2008. However, the dividend has already been increased by 11% for 2008. I think that this stock will be fine for the long term. In the short term, it will probably not do to well. Since I am in for the long term, I intend to keep this stock for now.

See my spreadsheet at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mru.htm. See my website at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html.

Metro is a leader in the food and pharmaceutical sectors. It operates a network of close to 600 food stores under the banners Metro, Metro Plus, Super C, A & P, Dominion, Loeb and Food Basics. It has 250 pharmacies under the banners Brunet, Clini Plus, The Pharmacy and Drug Basics. Metro's operations are concentrated in Quebec and Ontario. Its web site is www.metro.ca.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Metro Inc

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional.

It is taking longer than I thought to get spreadsheets ready for posting. I first have to decide what stock to review. Next, I have to get the spreadsheet into shape to post. Lastly, I have to write a blog entry on the stock. This all takes time, and longer than I had originally thought it would.

This stock is on both the S&P/TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats list (see http://www.dividendsmatter.com/constituents-of-sptsx-canadian-dividend-aristocrats/2007/11/26/ ) and the Dividend Achievers by Mergent’s at http://www.dividendachievers.com/. It is considered a dividend paying growth stock. Over the last 5 years, the dividends have increased at the rate of over 16% per year. In my RRSP account, my first dividend in 2002 was $44 per quarter. My dividends are now $200 per quarter.

I first purchased this stock in December 2001. It is almost 5% of my portfolio (over more than one account), so I will not be purchasing any more. It has had its ups and downs. Until the end of 2007, I was making a 10% annual return on this stock. Until the end of May 2008, I was making money on this stock this year. To today, because the recent drop, my return has dropped to a 7.5% annual return. But, we are only half way through the year, and at this point, it is hard to judge where the market is going.

This stock has fallen badly in June. Over the last year, it has not done as well as the TSX Composite or the TSX Consumer Staples indexes. Everyone seems to have a Hold rating on this stock. It has had some problems over the last year in competing with other stores, and it may well have problems competing with Wal-Mart. It is not expected to earn more EPS (earnings per share) this year than last. I will put up my spreadsheet tomorrow.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

MI Development Spreadsheet

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional.

This stock has great value as the book value is high and the Graham price is greater than the actual price. The Graham price is from Benjamin Graham and is the price you should be paying for a value-type stock investment. The cash flow is also good and it is supporting a not bad increase in the dividend payment.

However, it seems to have no growth-type qualities. It is not only the revenue growth, which is low, but also the Return on Equity (ROE) value. In 2007, the ROE was 2.3%. The last 4 year average is .8%. For Canadians, the average annual rate of return is low. It is much better in US$. This has to do with the relative value of Canadian and US currency over the last few years.

This company was only separated from Magna International in 2003, so it is hard to get a fix on how well it will do. Also, there is a reorganization proposal that is supposed to release some of the value stored in this stock to the current policyholders. This might be a good idea.

For the moment, I am going to continue to hold this stock and review my position on it after the meeting to be held near the end July.

See my spreadsheet at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mim.htm. See my website at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html.

This is a real estate company that currently leases, manages and develops a predominantly industrial rental portfolio. Almost all of its income-producing properties are leased to Magna and its subsidiaries. It also holds 53% equity and 95% voting interest in Magna Entertainment Corp (MEC.A). Its site is at www.midevelopments.com.

Monday, June 23, 2008

MI Development

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional.

I am starting to take a look at the stock I have in my RRSP account. I will look at both stocks that have lost money this year and ones that have made money. This first one is MI Development and it has lost money for me this year.

I bought a small stake in this company. I do this to track a company and to decide if I want to buy more of its stock. It is a Real Estate stock and TD had an Action Buy Call on it when I bought. The stock was doing well until about the end of 2007. According to Quicken, this stock has lost some 14% of its value since then. If charted against TSX capped Real Estate index and the TSX, it has done worse than both these indexes.

First, what I find good about this stock. The Cash Flow is good. Also, the book value is quite high. Because of this, the Graham price is above the stock price. At the end of 2007, the Graham price was $32.20 and the stock price was $27.87. This company is making money and the dividend has increased, on average 10.5% per year over the last 5 years. However, this is not a smooth increase, as dividend is not increased every year, but the dividend increases are large when they are made.

Tomorrow I will put up the spreadsheet.

Friday, June 20, 2008

TMX Group

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional.

This stock has a recent name change from TSX Group to TMX Group. This was done when it took over the Montreal Exchange. I had looked at this stock after I found it on a list of Strongest Dividend Growth stocks. I am interested in such stocks.

This stock has strong revenue and earnings (EPS) growth. Dividend Growth has been great, as it has increased by 44% per year over the last 4 years. This stock has great growth as the stock price has increased some 41% per year over the last 5 years. It also has great cash flow growth. The Accrual Ratio is not bad at a little under -5%.

There are a number of reasons why I do not like this stock. The dividend growth has been at twice the rate of the earnings growth. In 2007, the payout rate was 70%. This is a little high. The Graham price was, for 2007, $11.25 and the closing price for this stock was $52.80. This is quite a spread. The problem is that the Book Value is declining, not increasing. The Book Value has come down a lot since the IPO. The debt level against the assets is not bad at an Asset/Debt ratio of 1.44, but the leverage ratio (Assets/Book Value) is rather high at 8.8.

I know that a number of places have a buy rating on this stock, but I think I will give it a pass.

See my spreadsheet at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/x.htm. See my website at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html.

This company operates three national stock exchanges, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), the TSX Venture Exchange, and the Montreal Exchange (MXX). Toronto Stock Exchange serves the senior equity market. The Montreal Exchange is for Derivative Contracts and Options. The TSX Venture Exchange serves the public venture equity market, Natural Gas Exchange (NGX), a North American exchange for the trading and clearing of natural gas and electricity contracts and Shorcan Brokers Limited, a fixed income inter-dealer broker. Its site is at www.tsx.com

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Research In Motion

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional.

I bought some Research In Motion (TSX-RIM) at end of 1999 and in the first part of 2000. I paid some $12,800 for this stock. I have since sold off about $30,000 (when it has split) and the stock I have left is worth some $74,960. According to Quicken, I have made an average annual return of some 31% on this stock.

This stock owes me nothing! I will hold it for a while longer. If it goes much higher, I will sell off some more. Each time I have sold some, I have brought good dividend paying type stock. I will do so again. This stock is certainly making up for the losses I have suffered in bank stock.

What is not to like about this stock? I have just updated my spreadsheet on it and there is little to question. This stock not only trade in Canada, but also in the US (NASDAQ-RIMM). The stock reports in US$. As in other Canadian stock that reports in US$, this stock has done better in US$ than in CDN$ because of the differences in exchange rates over the last few years.

The P/E on this stock is quite high, but this is to be expected from such a growth stock. It is expected the Earnings per Share (EPS) will go up strongly, so part of the high P/E is the expectation on higher earnings to lower the P/E. The Accrual Ratio is also high, but this stock will continue to go up while it is so liked by the market. This stock went down in the last bear market, but it has only gone up since. It is a stock that is helping the TSX make some of the gains it has this year.

Debt is very much under control. The Return on Equity (ROE) is very good. There is strong cash flow, revenue and earnings. However, this is a Tech stock, and technology can change very rapidly.

See my spreadsheet at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/rim.htm. See my website at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html.

RIM designs, Manufactures and markets wireless solutions for the mobile communications market. The company is famous for the Blackberry. It is an international company with offices in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. Its site is at www.rim.net.

I have been lately looking at TSX Group (TSX-X) and will post the spreadsheet when I have finished it.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

FirstService Corp Spreadsheet

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional.

Looking over the spreadsheet I have, I can see that the revenue is growing nicely. The Earnings per Share (EPS) can fluctuate on this stock and there does not seem to be any consensus on what it will do for earnings in 2009. I usually concentrate on the actual earnings, but others are looking at earnings on continuing operations or excluding usual items etc. 2008 has not been a good year for this company for earnings.

You will also note that this company has done much better in US currency than in CDN currency. It is an international company, doing business in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and New Zealand, so it is reporting in US$. However, it still has not done badly in CDN currency.

Past growth has been good in revenue, earnings and price appreciation. The debt load has been a little higher than what I would like. There has been good growth in book value and cash flow. The Accrual Ratio is high, but it has in the past, not been a good predictor of what the share price will do. In 2008, the Operational Cash Flow is a lot higher than the Net Income and this is good.

At the present time, I am holding on to my shares, as I think that the market has overreacted. I will look at this again once we have some quarterly earnings in. The only change in this stock is that it had an earning loss for the quarter ending March 31, 2008; this is why EPS was down for the year ending in March 31, 2008. However, they are in Real Estate in US, an industry that is in some trouble. It is not unexpected that the market will punish all company in a troubled sector, no matter what their long term prospects are.

See my spreadsheet at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fsv.htm. See my website at http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html.

This company is a global diversified leader in the rapidly growing real estate services sector, providing services in the following three areas: commercial real estate, residential property management, and property services. It is an international company as noted above.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

FirstService Corp

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional.

I was looking at this as it has come down a lot over the last few months and I own shares. I paid a reasonable price for my shares, an average of $23.00. It is interesting that the company, instead of starting a dividend chose to issue dividend paying preferred shares to its shareholders in August 2007

I notice that there is lots of insider buying. Also, the company has started to buy back shares, even though at the annual meeting in May 2008 it said it would not. I notice that they are not only buying back shares, but also the preferred shares they issued in 2007. This could be because of the steep drop in the price of the shares since the meeting. Has the market overreacted? This is very possible. Usually heavy buying by a company and its executives is a good sign.

The loss in EPS does not seem to call for such a large drop in price from $40 a share in July 2007 to $15 today. Or, is something else happening? Does the market know something I cannot see? Are they just having a bad year because they are into Real Estate in the US? Tomorrow, I will go over the spreadsheet I have.