ARC Resources Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Resource. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on ARC Resources Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? There are a number of resource stocks on dividend lists. Personally, I do not like resource stocks and do not buy much of them. What I do not like is their volitivity and when I have bought them, it has been for the short term and I keep an eye on them. But analyst and some conservative investor like resource stocks. The testing of this stock as too price seems to point to a reasonable price, although I saw problems with some of my testing. This stock is below its last high reached in 2014.

I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that it seems that timing is everything when buying this stock. It is a resource stock and so it is probably cyclical. It is interesting that the stock price 25 years ago and 5 years ago are close. See charts below.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,005.38 you would have bought 34 shares at $29.57 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $219.84 in dividends. The stock would be worth $668.78. Your total return would have been $888.62. This would be a total loss of 1.41% per year with 3.99% from capital loss and 2.58% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$29.57	$1,005.38	34	10	$219.84	$668.78	$888.62

If you had invested in this company in December 2018, for $1,004.40 you would have bought 124 shares at $8.10 per share. In December 2023, after 5 years you would have received $268.58 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,439.08. Your total return would have been $2,707.66. This would be a total gain of 23.28% per year with 19.42% from capital gain and 3.86% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$8.10	$1,004.40	124	5	$268.58	$2,439.08	$2,707.66

If you had invested in this company in December 1998, for $1,000.40 you would have bought 164 shares at $6.10 per share. In December 2023, after 25 years you would have received $5,388.38 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,225.888. Your total return would have been $8,614.26. This would be a total gain of 29.56% per year with 4.79% from capital gain and 24.77% from dividends. This company used to be a Income Trust and so had very high dividends when it was an Income Trust.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$6.10	$1,000.40	164	25	$5,388.38	$3,225.88	$8,614.26

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.18%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate at 3.38% and 3.85%. The historical median dividend yield is high (7% and above) at 7.65%. This company used to be an income trust and so had high dividends, but all income trusts had to lower the dividends on becoming a corporation. All the old income trusts have had trouble getting the dividend level right. Over the past 5 years, dividends have increased by just 1.3%. However, in the last 5 years dividends have been cut and increased. The last dividend increase was for 13% and it was in 2023.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 24% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for 2023 for The DPR for 2023 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 15% with 5 year coverage at 12%. The DPR for 2023 for The DPR for 2023 for Free Funds Flow (FFF) is fine at 50% with 5 year coverage good at 28%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 14% with 5 year coverage at 12%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 18%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	24.52%	38.00%
FFO	14.81%	12.29%
FFF	49.61%	27.73%
CFPS	14.47%	12.20%
FCF	33.05%	17.69%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.10 and currently at 0.09. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a low at 0.91 and 0.91 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.96 and for 2024 estimate of 3.22. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.67 and 0.67.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.10	0.09
Intang/GW	0.02	0.02
Liquidity	0.91	0.91
Liq. + CF	2.96	3.22
Debt Ratio	2.50	2.50
Leverage	1.67	1.67
D/E Ratio	0.67	0.67

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	1.30%	23.28%	19.42%	3.86%
2012	10	-6.09%	-1.41%	-3.99%	2.58%
2007	15	-9.08%	4.37%	-0.14%	4.51%
2002	20	-5.04%	11.61%	1.65%	9.96%
1997	25	-2.48%	29.56%	4.79%	24.77%
1996	27	-3.38%	12.76%	1.59%	11.17%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 3.42, 4.90 and 6.38. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.12, 7.44 and 9.75. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.39, 11.89 and 13.95. The current P/E Ratio is 9.78 based on a stock price of $21.41 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $2.19. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 2.12, 3.04 and 4.37. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 3.35, 4.72 and 6.10. The current ratio is 4.56 based on a stock price of $21.41 and FFO estimate for 2024 of $4.70. The current ratio is above the 10 year median high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Free Funds Flow (FFF). The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Free Funds Flow Ratios are 3.47, 5.96 and 8.98. The corresponding 8 year ratios are 15.54, 22.33 and 29.12. The current ratio is 16.60 based on a stock price of $21.41 and FFF for last 12 months of $1.29. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios the 8 year median high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $24.76. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.59, 0.84 and 1.09. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.86 based on a stock price of $21.41. This ratio is between the medina and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.55. The current P/B Ratio is 1.72 based on a stock price of $21.41, Book Value of $7,428M and Book Value per Share of $12.44. The current ratio is 11% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.75. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.78 based on a stock price of $21.41, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $4.48 and Cash Flow of $2,674M. The current ratio is .5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but at the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.65%. The current dividend yield is 3.18% based on a dividend of $0.68 and a stock price of $21.41. The current dividend yield is 58% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, this stock used to be an income trust and income trust have very high dividends. Also, this test works best for companies with increasing dividends and during the past while, dividends have been flat, decreased and increased. So, you have to wonder how good this test is.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.85%. The current dividend yield is 3.18% based on a dividend of $0.68 and a stock price of $21.41. The current dividend yield is 17% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. However, this stock used to be an income trust and income trust have very high dividends. Also, this test works best for companies with increasing dividends and during the past while, dividends have been flat, decreased and increased. So, you have to wonder how good this test is.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.91. The current ratio is 3.08 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $4,858M, Revenue per Share of $6.96 and a stock price of $21.41. The current ratio is 9.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. However, looking a revenue, sites seem to be changing what they are using as Revenue, from Commodity Sales, to Revenue from Commodity Sales to Total Revenue as shown on the financial statements.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be reasonable. The 10 year dividend yield test says the stock price is reasonable as does the P/S Ratio test, even though I see problems with these tests. A number of the tests seems to point to a reasonable price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7) and Buy (8). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $26.63 with a high of $32.00 and low of $25.00. The consensus price of $26.63 implies a total return of 27.56% with 24.38% from capital gains and 3.18% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase like this company. Stock Chase gives this company 5 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense Dividend List. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this is a good choice in the resource sector. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool thinks this is a good stock to buy and hold. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their year-end results for 2023.

Simply Wall Street reviews this stock via Yahoo Finance. They put out one warning of unstable dividend track record.

ARC Resources Ltd is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of conventional oil and natural gas in Western Canada. The company produces light, medium, and heavy crude, condensate, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Its web site is here ARC Resources Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF) ... learn more on Friday, February 16, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Victim of Fraud.... learn more on Thursday, February 15, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are fine except for the Liquidity Ratio and this too low. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are mostly fine, but some could be improved upon. The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The dividend yield is very high at over 10%. No one seems to think that it will go bankrupt, but it does have problems because it has office real estate. On the other hand, the stock price is relatively cheap.

I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed in 2015 were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they had an earning loss in 2023 of $3.94 per share. The reason seems to be the write off of properties being held for sale. Since December 2021, the stock price has fallen 59%. The stock price was down 21% last year and is down 10% year to date.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,015.56 you would have bought 31 shares at $32.76 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $495.01 in dividends. The stock would be worth $625.58. Your total return would have been $1,120.59. This would be a total return of 1.23% per year with 4.73% from capital loss and 5.96% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$32.76	$1,015.56	31	10	$495.01	$625.58	$1,120.59

The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is High (7% and over) at 9.92%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.15%, 4.05% and 4.74%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 2.9% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 2.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are mostly fine, but some could be improved upon. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is negative with a with 5 year coverage fine at 66%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is fine at 82% with 5 year coverage at 82%. The DPR for 2023 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is a little high at 55% with 5 year coverage at 57%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 72% with 5 year coverage at 71%. The important DPRs are the AFFO and FFO ones.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	-58.96%	66.38%
AFFO	82.49%	81.95%
FFO	75.45%	71.99%
CFPS	54.90%	56.61%
FCF	72.03%	71.42%

Debt Ratios are fine except for the Liquidity Ratio and this too low. The Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.37. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is high at 1.36, but the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio is more important. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a really low at 0.73. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still low at 0.84. If you add back the current portion of the long term debt, it gets just to 1.01 and still very low. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.37. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.73 and 0.73.

Type	Year End
Lg Term R A	0.37
Lg Term R	1.36
Intang/GW	0.00
Liquidity	0.73
Liq. + CF	0.84
Liq. + CF +Dd	1.01
Debt Ratio	2.37
Leverage	1.73
D/E Ratio	0.73

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	2.86%	-9.26%	-14.56%	4.79%
2013	10	2.45%	1.23%	-4.73%	5.22%
2008	15	2.15%	13.08%	3.27%	6.39%
2003	20	3.97%	11.17%	2.28%	8.11%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.94, 1.43 and 13.24. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.07, 10.16 and 11.49. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.14, 11.43 and 13.24. The Current P/E Ratio is 8.83 based on a Stock Price of $17.75 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $2.01. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 16.04, 19.57 and 22.36. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.08, 19.75 and 22.64. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 9.20 based on a stock price of $17.75 and AFFO estimate for 2024 of $1.96. The current ratio is lower than the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 13.91, 17.01 and 19.96. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.55, 16.87 and 19.50. The current P/FFO Ratio is 7.65 based on a stock price of $17.75 and FFO estimate for 2024 of $2.32. The current ratio is lower than the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $50.03. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.74, 0.89 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.35 based on a stock price of $17.75. The current ratio is below the low ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.98. The current ratio is 0.37 based on a Book Value of $6,135M, Book Value per Share of $47.95 and a stock price of $17.75. The current ratio is 62% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 17.04. The current ratio is 7.07 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $321M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.51 and a stock price of $17.75. the current ratio is 59% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.74%. The current dividend yield is 10.14% based dividends of $1.80 and a stock price of $17.75. The current dividend yield is 114% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.05%. The current dividend yield is 10.14% based dividends of $1.80 and a stock price of $17.75. The current dividend yield is 151% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 8.72. The current P/S Ratio is 4.06 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $559M, Revenue per Share of $4.37 and a stock price of $17.75. The current ratio is 53% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests say the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio test confirms this. Most of the other testing is saying the same thing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (5) and Hold (3). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $21.15 with a high of $24.00 and low of $19.50. The consensus stock price of $21.15 implies a total return of 29.30%, with 19.15% from capital gains and 10.14% from dividends.

The analysts on Stock Chase do like this stock. It is on the Aristocrat stock list. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says buy for its passive income. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says buy because it is beaten down and has a tasty dividend. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter results for 2023.

Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. They have one warning of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust engaged in the development, management, and ownership of primarily urban office environments across Canada's major cities. Most of the total square footage in the company's real estate portfolio is located in Toronto and Montreal. Its web site is here Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Cogeco Communications Inc (TSX-CCA, OTC- CGEAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 14, 2024 around 5 pm. TTomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks for 2024.... learn more on Tuesday, February 13, 2024 around 5 pm..

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Cogeco Communications Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telecom. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Some Debt Ratios are awful as debt is too high, but at least the Liquidity Ratio is fine The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Cogeco Communications Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Personally, I do not like their debt level, but they have been buying other business and rebuying their shares. Another thing I do not like is that their total return for long term holders is under 8% per year in most years. I do like companies that can manage a total return of at least 8% per year over the long term. This company does not do that, see Total Return chart below. An advantage is that the stock is cheap and the current dividend yield is high. They can afford their dividend payments as the DPRs are under 40%.

I do not own this stock of Cogeco Communications Inc (TSX-CCA, OTC-CGEAF). This stock was on the Money Sense list when I was looking for a new stock to follow.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed was that there has been a lot of volatility in the stock and in dividends. For dividends, over the past 26 years they have decreased 4 times and increased 17 times. There was also a couple of years of no dividends. However, dividends have been steadily increasing over the past 10 years. A lot of the big swings in stock price also happened more than 10 years ago. See chart below from August 2000 to 2002 when price went from 42.50 to 11.50. Also, see the second chart that is as recent as 2021, stock price went from 100.42 in December 2021 to 59.35 in December 2023.

Aug-00	Aug-01	Aug-02
$42.50	$27.00	$11.50
82.40%	-36.47%	-57.41%

Dec-21	Dec-22	Dec-23
$100.42	$76.79	$59.35
1.86%	-23.53%	-22.71%

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,007.58 you would have bought 21 shares at $47.98 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $434.36 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,246.35. Your total return would have been $1,680.71. This would be a total return of 5.91% per year with 2.15% from capital gain and 3.77% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$47.98	$1,007.58	21	10	$434.36	$1,246.35	$1,680.71

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.58%. The 5, 10 dividend yields are moderate at 2.50%, and 2.40%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.69%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 35% with 5 year coverage at 31%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 31%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 27%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	35.47%	30.53%
AEPS	33.30%	30.80%
CFPS	9.92%	9.69%
FCF	33.21%	27.05%

Some Debt Ratios are awful as debt is too high, but at least the Liquidity Ratio is fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is far too high at 1.89 and currently at 1.72. I like to see this at 1.00 or less. Some analysts think it should be 0.50 or less. The Intangible Good Will/Market Cap Ratio is far too high for 2023 at 2.19 and currently at 2.13. This should also be 1.00 or lower. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a low at 1.09 and 0.59 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.74 and 2.44. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is fine at 1.54 and 1.58 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are too high at 3.30 and 2.14 and currently at 3.16 and 2.00. I prefer to see these ratios below 3.00 and below 2.00.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	1.89	1.72
Intang/GW	2.19	2.13
Liquidity	1.09	0.59
Liq. + CF	2.71	2.44
Debt Ratio	1.54	1.58
Leverage	3.30	3.16
D/E Ratio	2.14	2.00

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	10.31%	2.03%	-2.04%	4.07%
2013	10	11.55%	5.91%	2.15%	3.77%
2008	15	36.24%	6.92%	3.68%	3.24%
2003	20	0.00%	9.44%	6.53%	2.91%
1998	25	10.78%	5.88%	3.86%	2.01%
1993	30	10.35%	7.70%	5.70%	2.00%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.04, 11.02 and 12.99. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.67, 12.00 and 14.01. The corresponding Historical ratios are 9.62, 11.66 and 13.71. The current P/E Ratio is 7.40 based on a stock price of $61.24 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $8.28 The current ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.11, 12.30 and 14.34. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.92, 12.39 and 14.00. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 7.53 based on a stock price of $61.24 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $8.13.

I get a Graham Price of $111.13. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.94, 1.08 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.55 based on a stock price of $61.24. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.03. The current P/B Ratio is 0.91 based on a stock price of $61.24, Book Value of $3,004M, and Book Value per Share of $67.52. The current ratio is 55% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $84.20. This implies a ratio of 0.73 based on a stock price of $61.24 and Book Value of $3,746M. This ratio is 64% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.52. The current ratio is 2.58 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $23.70, Cash Flow of $1,054M and a stock price of $61.24. The current ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.69%. The current dividend yield is 5.58% based on dividends of $3.416 and a stock price of $61.24. The current dividend yield is 230% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.40%. The current dividend yield is 5.58% based on dividends of $3.416 and a stock price of $61.24. The current dividend yield is 133% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.62. The current ratio is 0.92 based on a stock price of $61.24, Revenue estimate for 2024 of $2,973M and Revenue per Share of $66.83. The current ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. I wonder about the dividend yield tests because this company has really rammed up their dividends in the last 10 years or so. However, the P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. All the tests are saying the same thing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (1), Hold (7) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months stock price consensus is $71.40 with a high of $93.00 and low of $63.00. The consensus price of $71.40 implies a total return of 22.17%, with 16.59% from capital gains and 5.58% from dividends.

The latest recommendation is a wait on Stock Chase. In other years there were mixed views about this stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is on the dividend lists that I follow. Brian Paradza on Motley Fool likes the growing dividend on this stock. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool this the stock is oversold and will rebound. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter of 2023. The company put out a Press Release about their results for the first quarter of 2024.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance looks at who owns the shares of this company. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street has two warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.3% per year for the next 3 years; and has a high level of debt.

Cogeco Communications Inc is a communication corporation. The company is a cable operator in North America operating in Canada. The company earns majority of its revenue from American telecommunications. The company operates in Canada and United States. Its web site is here Cogeco Communications Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF) ... learn more on Monday, February 12, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. Debt Ratios are fine, but I would like Liquidity to be a bit better. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? To me, the dividend yield is very low at just 0.66% and on top of that the have stopped raising dividends. I do not know why it still seems to be on the Dividend Aristocrat List. Although the dividends increase over the past 5 years at 9.4% is good, but this is because good increases in 3 to 5 years ago. They also must integrate its purchase of Kansas City Southern railway. I am still happy with having CNR instead of this stock. Currently, this stock is testing as expensive although the stock price has not done much in the last 3 years.

I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP). I am following this stock because it is a dividend growth stock. It is one that was on Mike Higgs' list. It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and chose CN as my railway stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company has stopped raising their dividends. Dividends have been flat since 2021. Analyst think that dividends will be raised in 2024, but they also thought last year that there would be a dividend raise in 2023.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,028.16 you would have bought 32 shares at $32.13 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $171.84 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,355.20. Your total return would have been $3,527.04. This would be a total return of 13.47% per year with 12.56% from capital gain and 0.92% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$32.13	$1,028.16	32	10	$171.84	$3,355.20	$3,527.04

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 0.66%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low at 0.83%, 0.89% and 1.23%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.4% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2021 and it was for 14.5%. Dividends have been flat since then, but analysts expect dividends to increase in 2024.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 18% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 17% with 5 year coverage at 17%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow I got values through TD WebBroker (1) and the company (2). FCF 1 is good at 42% with 5 year coverage at 42%. FCF 2 is good at 34% with 5 year coverage at 31%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	18.05%	18.49%
AEPS	19.79%	19.52%
CFPS	17.34%	17.11%
FCF 1	42.44%	42.44%
FCF 2	34.06%	30.72%

Debt Ratios are fine, but I would like Liquidity to be a bit better. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.20 and currently at 0.18. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a low at 0.53 and 0.53 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratio is low at year end at 1.15 but fine currently at 1.50. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.13 and 2.13 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.93 and 0.90.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.20	0.18
Intang/GW	0.21	0.20
Liquidity	0.53	0.53
Liq. + CF	1.13	1.50
Debt Ratio	2.13	2.13
Leverage	1.93	1.93
D/E Ratio	0.90	0.90

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	9.40%	17.78%	16.70%	1.09%
2013	10	10.50%	13.47%	12.56%	0.92%
2008	15	9.38%	20.04%	18.52%	1.52%
2003	20	10.56%	15.45%	14.25%	1.21%
1998	25	11.16%	17.02%	15.47%	1.55%
1993	30	11.14%	15.92%	14.48%	1.44%
1988	35	7.14%	13.15%	11.92%	1.24%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.25, 22.00 and 24.57. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.21, 20.82 and 24.17. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.34, 16.32 and 16.67. The current ratio is 26.91 based on a stock price of $114.75 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $4.26. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 22.45, 24.40 and 26.34. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.67, 21.66 and 25.68. The current ratio is 26.02 based on a stock price of $114.75 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $4.41. This ratio is higher than the 10 high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $66.46. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.71, 2.04 and 2.35. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.73 based on a stock price of $114.75. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.44. The current ratio is 2.58 based on a stock price of $114.75, Book Value of $41,492M, and Book Value per Share of $44.51. The current ratio is 53% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, these ratios are quite high for P/B Ratios.

I also have an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2024 of $48.70. This implies a P/B Ratio of 2.36 with a stock price of $114.75 and Book Value of $45,393M. This ratio is 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 14.82. The current ratio is 18.54 based on a stock price of $114.75, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $6.19 and Cash Flow of $5,770M. The current ratio is 25% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.23%. The current dividend yield is 0.66% based on a stock price of $114.75 and dividends of $0.76. The current dividend yield is 46% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.89%. The current dividend yield is 0.66% based on a stock price of $114.75 and dividends of $0.76. The current dividend yield is 26% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.72. the current P/S Ratio is 7.29 based on a stock price of $114.75, Revenue estimate for 2024 of $14,666M and Revenue per Share of $15.73. The current ratio is 28% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio testing. The other tests are a mixed bag from Cheap to Expensive. In is interesting that the Price/Graham Price Ratio test says the stock price is reasonable, but the Book Values are quite high.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (13), Buy (8), Hold (11) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $116.30 with a high of $127.00 and low of $95.00. The consensus price of $116.30 implies a total return of 2.01% with 1.35% from capital gains and 0.66% from dividends. The consensus 12 month stock price and lots of Strong Buys do not really go together?

Some analysts like this stock on Stock Chase, some do not and some like CNR better. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense List and the Dividend Aristocrats List. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says that price might be high, but the company is expected to grow strongly over the next 5 years. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this is a great investment choice. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2023.

There is a report by Simply Wall Street on this stock. Simply Wall Street shows two risks of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; and large one-off items impacting financial results. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City is a Class-1 railroad operating on track that spans across most of Canada and into parts of the Midwestern and Northeastern United States and down through Texas, the Gulf of Mexico, and into Mexico. Its web site is here Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Cogeco Communications Inc (TSX-CCA, OTC- CGEAF) ... learn more on Friday, February 9, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy February 2024 .... learn more on Thursday, February 8, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

AGF Management Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good currently. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth reviving. See my spreadsheet on AGF Management Ltd .

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock is not well followed current and this is not a good sign. However, it has done better recently that it has for a while. Personally, I am not interested in this stock, but some people think it might be worth a look at. The stock price seems to be currently reasonable.

I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF), but I used to. I bought it in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it has been doing better of late. Dividends were cut in 2015 and 2016 and then were flat until 2021 when they were again raised. However, dividends are still some 60% below what they were. As you can see from the following calculations of holding this stock for 10, 30 and 25 years, investors have, because of dividends, not lost or not lost much. You often find this with dividend stocks. Also, notice that their return is good for the last 5 years at 16.01% per year. See chart below on total return.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,008.52 you would have bought 76 shares at $13.27 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $330.60 in dividends. The stock would be worth $585.96. Your total return would have been $916.56. This total return would be a total loss of 1.16% per year with 5.29% from capital loss and 4.12% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$13.27	$1,008.52	76	10	$330.60	$585.96	$916.56

Interestingly, if you had invested in this company in December 1993, for $1,002.33 you would have bought 301 shares at $3.33 per share. In December 2023, after 30 years you would have received $4,397.61 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,320.71. Your total return would have been $6,718.32. This Total Return would be a total gain of 10.68% per year with 2.84% from capital gain and 7.84% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$3.33	$1,002.33	301	30	$4,397.61	$2,320.71	$6,718.32

But, if you had invested in this company in December 1998, for $1,009.20 you would have bought 87 shares at $11.60 per share. In December 2023, after 25 years you would have received $1,225.83 in dividends. The stock would be worth $670.77. Your total return would have been $1,896.60. This Total Return would be a total gain of 3.93% per year with 1.62% from a capital loss and 5.55% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$11.60	$1,009.20	87	25	$1,225.83	$670.77	$1,896.60

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth reviving. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.77%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are good at 5.56% and 5.86%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4%) at 4.71%. The dividends have been increasing lately and they are up by 6.1% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 10%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good currently. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 25% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 31% with 5 year coverage at 42%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) according to the company is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 45%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	33.08%	31.97%
CFPS	24.95%	28.73%
FCF MS	31.21%	41.73%
FCF Comp	32.61%	45.21%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.01. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a bit low at 1.39. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.09. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 4.29. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.30 and 0.30.

Type	Year End
Lg Term R	0.01
Intang/GW	0.54
Liquidity	1.39
Liq. + CF	2.09
Debt Ratio	4.29
Leverage	1.30
D/E Ratio	0.30

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	6.09%	16.01%	9.85%	6.61%
2013	10	-8.80%	-1.16%	-5.29%	4.12%
2008	15	-5.15%	6.85%	-1.38%	8.23%
2003	20	1.90%	1.31%	-4.02%	5.33%
1998	25	4.90%	3.93%	-1.62%	5.55%
1993	30	6.24%	10.68%	2.84%	7.84%
1990	33	6.15%	16.08%	5.72%	10.36%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.89, 7.04 and 7.31. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.44, 8.73 and 10.01. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.17, 13.43 and 17.22. The current P/E Ratio is 6.07 based on EPS for 2024 of $1.25 and a stock price of $7.59. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.59, 7.31 and 8.38. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.65, 9.63 and 13.00. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 6.07 based on AEPS for 2024 of $1.25 and a stock price of $7.59. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $21.82. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.35, 0.45 and .056. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.35 based on a stock price of $7.59. This ratio is at the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.47. The current P/B Ratio is 0.45 based on a stock price of $7.59, Book Value of $1089M and Book Value per share of $16.93. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share value for 2024 of $17.80. This implies a ratio of 0.43 and Book Value of $1,145M with a stock price of $7.59. This ratio is 9.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.00. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.25 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $0.92 and Cash Flow of $59M and a stock price of $7.59. This ratio is 3% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.71%. The current dividend yield is 5.80% based on dividends of $0.44 and a stock price of $7.59. The current yield is 23% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.86%. The current dividend yield is 5.80% based on dividends of $0.44 and a stock price of $7.59. The current yield is 1% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.07. The current P/S Ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price $7.59 and Revenue estimate for 2024 of $479M and Revenue per Share of $7.44. The current ratio is 4.7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The 10 year dividend yield test says it is reasonable but above the median (1%) and the P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable and below the median. The rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is either cheap or reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $9.07 with a high of $10.00 and low of $7.50. This implies a total return of 25.30% with 19.50% from capital gains and 5.80% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase do not particularly like this stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is currently not on any dividend list I am following. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says this stock is undervalued and might worth considering, but this was in 2021. There is nothing in Motley Fool later than 2021. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter of 2023.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about insider buying at this company. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street lists 2 warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.4% per year for the next 3 years; and unstable dividend track record.

AGF Management is a Canada-based asset manager with operations and investments in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Asia. AGF Management has a more meaningful portion of its business tied to institutional clients than its peers, with one fourth of its total AUM derived from institutional and subadvised accounts. The company derives 17% of its managed assets from high-net-worth clients. Its web site is here AGF Management Ltd .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 7, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks February 2024 .... learn more on Tuesday, February 6, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Richelieu Hardware Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and may even be cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The company has only put out a press release for 2023. They used to put out unaudited financial statements with the fourth quarter results, but this year, the financial statements were very limited. Analysts are complaining that the did not come close to the expected EPS of $2.71 as EPS came in at $1.98. I still think it is a good company and I will retain what shares I have. I might buy some for by TFSA account, but have not come up with all the money yet for 2024 deposit. The price is certainly reasonable at present and maybe cheap as the dividend yield tests are saying the stock price is cheap.

I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2007 because it was recommended by the Investment Reporter. It is not on any of the dividend lists, probably because they only started to pay dividends in 2000, they are a rather small company and they did not increase dividends in 2009. This stock would be considered to be a dividend paying growth stock. In 2009, I thought I would add to what I had in this stock. This stock has been much recommended by MPL Communications.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done well with this stock. I have had it for just over 14 years and my total return per year is 16.88%, with 15.31% from capital gains and 1.57% from dividends.

In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. This stock has been growing quite well over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts seem to expect lower growth in the future, but I do not know how reliable the future values are. There are few analysts following this stock and I was looking at a number of sites trying to pick up information.

Year	Item	Tot. Gwth	Per Year	Gwth	Coverage
5	Revenue Growth	78.00%	12.22%	0.40%	<-12 mths
5	EPS Growth	69.23%	11.10%	-1.52%	<-12 mths
5	Net Income Growth	64.36%	10.45%	3.54%	<-12 mths
5	Cash Flow Growth	540.38%	44.97%
5	Dividend Growth	150.00%	20.11%	0.00%	<-12 mths
5	Stock Price Growth	68.63%	11.02%	11.58%	<-12 mths
10	Revenue Growth	204.68%	11.79%	2.53%	<-this year
10	EPS Growth	167.57%	10.34%	1.52%	<-this year
10	Net Income Growth	140.07%	9.15%	1.52%	<-this year
10	Cash Flow Growth	459.70%	18.79%
10	Dividend Growth	246.15%	13.22%	0.00%	<-this year
10	Stock Price Growth	188.72%	11.19%	11.58%	<-this year

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,007.86 you would have bought 69 shares at $14.61 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $205.17 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,310.62. Your total return would have been $3,515.79. This Total Return would be a total return of 13.74% per year with 12.63% from capital gain and 1.12% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$14.61	$1,007.86	69	10	$205.17	$3,310.62	$3,515.79

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.36%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.10%, 0.91% and 1.12%. The dividend growth is good (15% and higher) at 20% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 15.4%. Usually, the company increases the dividend for the first dividend of year, but in 2024, they did not do that.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 30% with 5 year coverage at 19%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 11%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 14% with 5 year coverage at 22%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	30.30%	18.90%
CFPS	9.59%	11.13%
FCF	14.28%	22.34%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.00. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 3.62. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 3.23. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.45 and 0.45.

Type	Year End
Lg Term R	0.00
Intang/GW	0.08
Liquidity	3.62
Liq. + CF	4.61
Debt Ratio	3.23
Leverage	1.45
D/E Ratio	0.45

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	20.11%	17.34%	16.16%	1.18%
2013	10	13.22%	13.75%	12.63%	1.12%
2008	15	12.20%	16.55%	15.09%	1.46%
2003	20	12.20%	11.68%	10.65%	1.03%
1998	25	14.24%	17.32%	15.77%	1.55%
1993	30		16.18%	15.02%	1.15%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.99, 19.45 and 21.81. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.49, 20.34 and 23.75. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.10, 15.75 and 19.20. The current P/E Ratio is 21.89 based on a stock price of $43.99 and EPS estimate for 2024 of 2.01. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $27.01. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.35, 1.64 and 1.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.63 based on a stock price of $43.99. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.22. The current P/B Ratio is 2.73 based on a stock price of $43.99 and Book Value of $904.9M and Book Value per Share of $16.13. The current ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 21.08. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.11 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $270.7M, Cash Flow per Share of $4.83 and a stock price of $43.99. The current ratio is 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.12%. The current dividend yield is 1.36% based on a stock price of $43.99 and dividends of $0.60. The current dividend yield is 22% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.91%. The current dividend yield is 1.36% based on a stock price of $43.99 and dividends of $0.60. The current dividend yield is 51% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.52. The current P/S Ratio is 1.35 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $1,833, Revenue per Share of $32.68 and a stock price of $43.99. The current ratio is 11% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and may even be cheap. The dividend yield tests both say that the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable and below the median. The rest of the testing says the stock price is either reasonable or cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find recommendations of Hold (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $45.75 with a high of $46.00 and low of $45.50. The stock price consensus of $45.75 implies a total return of 5.41% with 4.05% from capital gains and 1.36% from dividends.

Analysts in 2024 give this stock on Stock Chase a Top Pick and a Hold. Stock Chase gave this stock 4 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this under the radar stock is a good buy. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool last year talked about this company being downgraded by CIBC. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their year-end 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about this stock and its dividends. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5. They list one warning of Profit margins (6.2%) are lower than last year (9.3%).

Richelieu Hardware Ltd is a Canada-based company that imports, manufactures, and distributes specialty hardware and complementary products. Headquartered in Montreal, the company operates across Canada and the eastern and midwestern regions of the United States. The majority of the company's sales are derived from its operations in Canada. Its web site is here Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... learn more on Monday, February 5, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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