Toronto Dominion Bank

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. Debt Ratios are fine. The stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Toronto Dominion Bank.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I like this bank because it is a dividend growth stock that has produced good returns over the long term. I do expect that they will not do as well in the future. In the past Canadian banks have taken over Canadian Trust companies, Canadian stock companies, and got into insurance. They are now going international to grow. International banking, to me, seems more volatile than Canadian banking. The stock price is reasonable.

I own this stock of Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD). This stock, as all banks, was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list and the other dividend lists that I followed. When I sold some Metro in 2009, I bought this stock. It is the 3rd bank stock I bought.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for 23 years and I have made a return of 13.13% per year with 9.05% from capital gains and 4.08% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,005.00 you would have bought 24 shares at $41.88 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $607.20 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,104.08. Your total return would have been $2,711.28.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$41.88	$1,005.00	24	10	$607.20	$2,104.08	$2,711.28

If you had invested in this company in December 1988, for $1,001.25 you would have bought 225 shares at $4.45 per share. In December 2022, after 34 years you would have received $6,311.25 in dividends. The stock would be worth $19,725.75. Your total return would have been $26,037.00.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$4.45	$1,001.25	225	34	$6,311.25	$19,725.75	$26,037.00

If you had invested in this company in December 1976, for $1,001.25 you would have bought 1220 shares at $0.82 per share. In December 2022, after 46 years you would have received $49,705.67 in dividends. The stock would be worth $106,957.40. Your total return would have been $156,663.07. The original cost takes into consideration stock splits of which there were 3 since 1976. That means that you would have really paid a stock price of $5.84 a share.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$0.82	$1,000.40	1,220	46	$49,705.67	$106,957.40	$156,663.07

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.35%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 4.03%, 3.79% and 3.53%. The dividends have increased in the past 5 years at a moderate rate (8% to 14% ranges) at 8.7% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 7.87%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 38% with 5 year coverage at 43%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 43% with 5 year coverage at 45%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 35% with 5 year coverage at 37%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2022 is $15% with 5 year coverage at 8%. (There is disagreement on what the FCF is.)

Debt Ratios are fine. Because it is a bank, I am looking at Long Term Debt/Covering Asset Ratio. For 2022 it is 0.93 and that is fine. I get a liquidity Ratio of 3.44, but this is not considered important for banks. The Debt Ratio is 1.06 and this is fine for banks.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 47 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	8.66%	7.40%	3.55%	3.86%
2012	10	9.44%	11.86%	7.67%	4.19%
2007	15	8.45%	10.02%	6.36%	3.65%
2002	20	9.69%	12.74%	8.55%	4.19%
1997	25	10.71%	11.38%	7.79%	3.59%
1992	30	10.26%	15.72%	10.69%	5.02%
1987	35	10.52%	13.86%	9.64%	4.22%
1982	40	9.90%	15.33%	10.43%	4.91%
1977	45	11.07%	17.27%	11.23%	6.05%
1975	47	10.76%	15.33%	10.51%	4.82%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.25, 9.82 and 11.82. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.68, 11.93 and 13.15. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.36, 11.62 and 13.01. The current P/E Ratio is 10.28 based on a stock price of $88.20 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $8.58. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) Ratios. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.35, 11.12 and 12.32. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.35, 11.55 and 12.69. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 9.76 based on a stock price of $88.20 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $9.04. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $108.68. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 0.90 and 1.01. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.81 based on a stock price of $88.20. The current ratio is at the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.59. The current P/B Ratio is 1.52 based on a stock price of $88.20, Book Value of $111,383M, and Book Value per Share of $58.07. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Book Value per Share estimate for 2023. The book Value per Share estimate for 2023 is $59.70. This gives a P/B Ratio of 1.48 with a stock price of $88.20 and Book Value of $108,755M. This ratio is 7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.16. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.08 based on the Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $38,949M, Cash Flow per Share of $21.38 and a stock price of $88.20. The current ratio is 29% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, a lot of analysts do not consider the cash flow an important item to look at for banks.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.53%. The current dividend yield is 4.35% based on a stock price of $88.20 and dividends of $3.84. The current dividend yield is 23% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.79%. The current dividend yield is 4.35% based on a stock price of $88.20 and dividends of $3.84. The current dividend yield is 15% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.18. The current P/S Ratio is 3.13 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of 51,391M, Revenue per Share of $28.21 and a stock price of $88.20. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The 10 year median dividend yield test says this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The historical dividend yield test says it is cheap. Other tests tend to say it is cheap or reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (6), Hold (5) and Underperform (1). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $101.40. This implies a total return of 19.32 with 14.97% from capital gains and 4.35% from dividends based on a current stock price of $88.20.

Analysts on Stock Chase like this bank, but not all think it is a current buy, but some do. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense list with a B rating. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool thinks this stock bottom last summer, but is still undervalued. Andrew Button Motley Fool thinks TD has long-term growth catalysts. This bank put out on Newswire their results for 2022.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance talks about who owns shares in the company. Simply Wall Street gives this bank 4 stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street gives two warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.2% per year for the next 3 years; and unstable dividend track record. The dividends are just unstable if you are American as the dividends are paid in CDN$ and Americans get dividends based on the current exchange rate.

Toronto-Dominion is one of Canada's two largest banks and operates three business segments: Canadian retail banking, U.S. retail banking, and wholesale banking. The bank's U.S. operations span from Maine to Florida, with a strong presence in the Northeast. It also has a 13% ownership stake in Charles Schwab. Its web site is here Toronto Dominion Bank.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Calian Group Ltd (TSX-CGY, OTC-CLNFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS) ... learn more on Monday, January 16, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Calian Group Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. I think that the current stock price is on the expensive side, but maybe not by much. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth non-existent. See my spreadsheet on Calian Group Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is not my usual choice as I like dividend growth companies. However, this stock was for the Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA), where I want to give potential companies a chance to see what they can do. I still like this company and I will keep it. I cannot complain about the return which for me is 17.22% per year with 13.41% from capital gains and 3.81% from dividends. I have had it for 12 years. Currently, it would seem that the stock price is relatively high.

I own this stock of Calian Group Ltd (TSX-CGY, OTC-CLNFF). This is an interesting company with a very nice dividend. This stock came up on a Globe Investor site. The Globe Investor Number Cruncher is an investment column about screening for stocks and funds. They did one on companies with little to no debt. I also noted that the Financial Blogger has this stock on his Top Ten Canadian Dividend Stocks list.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that although they are still not increasing their dividends, I have done well on this stock. I have had stock for just over 11 years and my total return is 17.22% with 13.41% from capital gains and 3.81% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,005.60 you would have bought 48 shares at $20.95 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $537.60 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,205.92. Your total return would have been $3,743.52.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$20.95	$1,005.60	48	10	$537.60	$3,205.92	$3,743.52

If you had invested in this company in December 1994 when this stock was first issued, for $1,004.48 you would have bought 146 shares at $6.88 per share. In December 2022, after 29 years you would have received $2,578.36 in dividends. The stock would be worth $9,751.34. Your total return would have been $12,329.70.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$6.88	$1,004.48	146	29	$2,578.36	$9,751.34	$12,329.70

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.73%. The 5, 10 year and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.36%, 3.96% and 3.96%. The company has not raised their dividends since 2013.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 94% with 5 year coverage at 62%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 29% with 5 year coverage at 40%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 if 19% with 5 year coverage at 26%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 35% with 5 year coverage at 62%.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is 0. They do have debt, but it is very low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is 1.40. It is currently at 2.19. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is 2.26. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are good at 1.79 and 0.79.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.00%	18.50%	15.82%	2.68%
2012	10	0.55%	15.74%	12.29%	3.45%
2007	15	6.76%	16.13%	11.39%	4.74%
2002	20	10.43%	20.03%	14.04%	5.99%
1997	25		18.22%	13.86%	4.36%
1993	29		10.13%	8.15%	1.98%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 30.13, 30.43 and 30.72. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.40, 13.31 and 12.40. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.12, 11.41 and 14.05. The current P/E Ratio is 23.46 based on a stock price of $64.74 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $2.76. The current ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The P/E Ratio has been high for the last few years because EPS fell a lot, but stock price fell little. This can happen if a company goes through a hard time in earnings, but perceived value of the company does not fall.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AESP) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.80, 14.25 and 15.44. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.05, 12.88 and 14.26. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 15.64 based a stock price of $64.74 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $4.14. The current ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $49.49. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.02, 1.10 and 1.21. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.31 based on a stock price of $64.74. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.17. The current P/B Ratio is 2.46 based on a Book Value of $305M, Book Value per Share of $26.29 and a stock price of $64.74. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.10. The current P/CF Ratio is 16.37 based on a stock price of $64.74, Cash Flow estimate for 2023 of $45.9M, and Cash Flow per Share of $3.95. The current ratio is 32% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.96%. The current dividend yield is 1.73% based on dividends of $1.12 and a stock price of $64.74. The current dividend yield is 56% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The dividend yield test does not work well when the dividends do not grow.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.96%. The current dividend yield is 1.73% based on dividends of $1.12 and a stock price of $64.74. The current dividend yield is 56% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The dividend yield test does not work well when the dividends do not grow.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.72. The current P/S Ratio is 1.15 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $651M, Revenue per Share of $56.08 and a stock price of $64.74. The current ratio is 61% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The P/S Ratio test shows this as do most of the other tests. However, the P/AEPS shows it is not into the expensive side by very much. The dividend yield test is not much help when dividends are not growing.

I look at the total return over several years. For P/S Ratio, P/AEPS and P/E Ratio, the lower the ratio the cheaper the stock. For yield, the higher the yield, the cheaper the stock. In the chart below you can see that the beginning P/E Ratios and for beginning P/ AEPS Ratios for good returns are lower than today. This is the same with P/S Ratio. Also, the beginning yield was higher than today, although on this case, I am discounting the dividend yield testing.

In the following chart the capital gains for the 10 years to December 31, 2022 is 12.29% per year. The beginning yield was at 5.34%, and the P/E Ratio, P/AEPS and the P/S Ratio were at 11.39, 10.79 and 0.64. Does this chart change my opinion of the stock price? No.

Years	Cap Gains	Tot. Ret	B P/E	B P/AE	B P/S	B Yield
5	15.82%	18.50%	15.95	14.23	0.79	3.92%
10	12.29%	15.74%	11.39	10.79	0.64	5.34%
15	11.39%	16.13%	12.05	11.82	0.57	3.23%
20	14.04%	20.03%	11.78	0.00	0.23	0.00%
25	13.86%	18.22%	-6.05		0.43
29	8.15%	10.13%
current			23.46	15.64	1.15	1.73%

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3) and Buy (5). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price is $80.75. This implies a total return of 26.46% with 24.73% from capital gains and 1.73% from dividends.

Last year when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (3) and Buy (3). The consensus would be a strong Buy. The 12 month stock price is $78.13. This implies a total return of 40.59% with 38.60% from capital gains and 1.99% from dividends based on a stock price of 56.37. What happened was that the stock price went from $56.37 to $64.74, an increase of 14.85%. The total return was 16.84 with 14.85 from capital gains and 1.99% from dividends.

This company is not covered by many analysts on Stock Chase but the latest one is a buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense list. Robin Brown on Motley Fool calls this stock a defensive growth stock. Robin Brown on Motley Fool thinks this is a good stock for your TFSA. The company put out a Press Release on their results for the fourth quarter of 2022.

Simply Wall Street put out a report on this company via Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street lists 3 risks for this company of large one-off items impacting financial results; significant insider selling over the past 3 months; shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Note the reason companies put out Adjusted Earnings per Share is because of large one-off items impacting financials. Also, what might look like insider selling is just insiders not picking up all their stock options. For this company, the CEO, CFO and Chairman all increased their holdings this year over last year.

Calian Group Ltd operates through four segments namely Advanced Technologies, Healthcare, Learning, and Information Technology. It generates maximum revenue from the Health segment. Its web site is here Calian Group Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Rogers Sugar Inc (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD) ... learn more on Friday, January 13, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Do Not Invest if You Do not Understand.... learn more on Thursday, January 12, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Rogers Sugar Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Consumer. The stock price is reasonable and maybe cheap. Some Debt Ratios need to improve. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine for AEPS and CFPS. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth non-existent. See my spreadsheet on Rogers Sugar Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is not the sort of company I tend to like because it does not grow it dividends. With all higher yield stock comes little to no dividend growth. I like companies with dividends in the 2% to 4% ranges. Although, all old income trust companies are having hard times getting its dividends right and few can grow they dividends unless they cut them severely first. However, this stock would be fine for anyone wanting passive income. The stock price is reasonable and maybe cheap.

I do not own this stock of Rogers Sugar Inc (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF). This stock was brought to my attention by Dividend Ninja. This company used to be an Income Trust (TSX-RSI.UN) but it has been converted to a corporation. On its change to a corporation, it lowered its dividend.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the company had an earnings loss because they had a Goodwill Impairment Charge. Dividends have made up a large part of their total return. Look at the chart below and the 15 year return. Shareholders got a total return of 9.49% with 1.28% from capital gains and 8.21% from dividends.

This company used to be an income trust. Income trust can pay much higher dividends than corporations. So, dividends in the future will be a smaller and smaller part of the total return.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,000.33 you would have bought 167 shares at $5.99 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $661.32 in dividends. The stock would be worth $905.23. Your total return would have been $1,611.55.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$5.99	$1,000.33	167	10	$661.32	$950.23	$1,611.55

If you had invested in this company in December 1997 when the stock was first issued, for $1,001.00 you would have bought 143 shares at $7.00 per share. In December 2022, after 25 years you would have received $1,375.76 in dividends. The stock would be worth $813.67. Your total return would have been $2,189.43.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$7.00	$1,001.00	143	25	$1,375.76	$813.67	$2,189.43

However, if you had invested in this company in December 1999 two years after it was issued, for $1,003.60 you would have bought 193 shares at $5.20 per share. In December 2022, after 23 years you would have received $1,856.80 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,098.17. Your total return would have been $2,954.97.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$5.20	$1,003.60	193	23	$1,856.80	$1,098.17	$2,954.97

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.29%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also good at 6.32% and 6.51%. The historical median dividend yield is high (7% and over) at 8.57%. The dividend is currently flat. The company has not raised the dividend since 2013. No one expects the dividends to be raised any time soon.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine for AEPS and CFPS. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is negative because of an earnings loss. The 5 year coverage is at 186%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share for 2022 is 92% with 5 year coverage at 94%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2022 is 37% with 5 year coverage at 38%. There is a huge difference in what people think the Free Cash Flow for this stock is, running from 41M to a negative 2.2M.

Some Debt Ratios need to improve. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is good at 0.37. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is good at 1.80. The Debt Ratio is a bit low for 2022 at 1.45 and I prefer to see it at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 3.22 and 2.26. I prefer to see these ratios below 3.00 and below 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.00%	3.85%	-2.08%	5.93%
2012	10	0.43%	6.42%	-0.51%	6.93%
2007	15	-1.13%	9.49%	1.28%	8.21%
2002	20	-0.71%	9.46%	0.96%	8.50%
1997	25	-2.73%	7.10%	-0.83%	7.93%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.75, 12.11 and 13.48. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.82, 13.75 and 15.68. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.92, 10.73 and 11.89. The current P/E Ratio is 12.81 based on a stock price of $5.72 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.45. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.26, 13.72 and 15.71. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.06, 14.48 and 16.08. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 13.30 based on a stock price of $5.72 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $0.43. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $5.25. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.02, 1.14 and 1.25. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.09 based on a stock price of $5.72. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.90. The current P/B Ratio is 2.09 based on a stock price of $5.72, Book Value of $286M and a Book Value per Share of $2.74. The current ratio is 10% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 11.33. The current ratio is 7.16 based on Cash Flow estimate for 2023 of $83.4M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.80 and a stock price of $5.72. The current ratio is 37% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.57%. The current dividend yield is 6.29% based on dividends of $0.36. The current dividend yield is 27% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, the dividend yield tests do not work well with companies that do not raise their dividends and with companies that used to be income trusts.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.51%. The current dividend yield is 6.29% based on dividends of $0.36. The current dividend yield is 3% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. However, the dividend yield tests do not work well with companies that do not raise their dividends and with companies that used to be income trusts.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.77. The current P/S Ratio is 0.58 based on a stock price of $5.72, Revenue estimate for 2023 of $1,028M and Revenue per Share of $9.85. The current ratio is 24.8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is close to cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and maybe cheap as the P/S Ratio test is showing that it is close to it. The dividend yield tests do not work well when dividends are not increasing. This used to be a income trust and income trusts had high dividend yields. Dividend is still quite high. Most of the testing is showing that the stock price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Hold (5) recommendations. The 12 month stock price consensus is $6.20. This implies a total return of $14.69% with 8.39% from capital gains and 6.29% from dividends. Brian Madden on Stock Chase says: "Doesn't think dividend will be guillotined. Disappointing because it doesn't grow. Sugar is not a growth business. It is not a growth stock and probably never will be. Hold and try to trade it at the middle of its range. "

Analysts on Stock Chase are negative on this stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 star out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense List. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool likes the yield on this stock. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool likes this stock for safety and passive income. The company put out a Press Release on Globe Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street report via Yahoo Finance wonder how variable the dividend payments are. They have 3 warnings on this stock of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; dividend of 6.33% is not well covered by earnings or cash flows; significant insider selling over the past 3 months. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5.

Rogers Sugar Inc is a Canada based sugar producing company. The company along with its subsidiaries is principally engaged in refining, packaging, and marketing sugar products. Its geographical segments include Canada, which is the key revenue generator; the United States; Europe; and others. Its web site is here Rogers Sugar Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Calian Group Ltd (TSX-CGY, OTC-CLNFF) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 11, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about The Free Press .... learn more on Tuesday, January 10, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Royal Bank of Canada

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Royal Bank of Canada.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do like Canadian banks. I have done well with them. They grow their dividends. The stock price seems reasonable.

I own this stock of Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY). At the time I bought this stock it was on Mike Higgs' list of Canadian Dividend Growth Stocks and on the dividend lists I followed as were all the banks. In 1995 I bought this stock and this is the second bank stock that I have bought.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I have own this stock for 27 years and that I have made a total return of 16.94% per year with 11.11% from capital gains and 5.86% from dividends. I only made one purchase of stocks for this bank and that was October 27, 1995.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,017.96 you would have bought 17 shares at $59.88 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $610.30 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,164.10. Your total return would have been $2,774.40.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$59.88	$1,017.96	17	10	$610.30	$2,164.10	$2,774.40

If you had invested in this company in December 1992, for $1,002.64 you would have bought 166 shares at $6.04 per share. In December 2022, after 30 years you would have received $9,446.23 in dividends. The stock would be worth $21,131.80. Your total return would have been $30,578.03.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$6.04	$1,002.64	166	30	$9,446.23	$21,131.80	$30,578.03

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.05%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 3.82%, 387% and 3.93%. The dividend growth for the last 5 years is 7.4% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 3.13%. However, this bank increases their dividends more than once a year and between 2022 and 2023 the dividends have increase by 10.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 43% with 5 year coverage at 45%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 43% and with 5 year coverage at 45%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 I s 35% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2022 is 36% with 5 year coverage at 13%. However, there is no agreement on what the FCF is for 2022.

Debt Ratios are fine. Because this is a financial, I am looking at Long Term Debt/Asset Coverage Ratio and for 2022 it is good at 0.74. The Liquidity Ratio is not important for banks, but I calculate it to be 5.15. The Debt Ratio is 1.06 and this is fine for a bank.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 39 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	7.37%	8.14%	4.40%	3.75%
2012	10	7.94%	12.03%	7.83%	4.19%
2007	15	6.69%	10.09%	6.32%	3.77%
2002	20	9.50%	11.84%	7.80%	4.04%
1997	25	10.45%	11.75%	8.01%	3.73%
1992	30	10.16%	15.71%	10.69%	5.02%
1987	35	8.98%	16.26%	10.79%	5.47%
1983	39	6.31%	13.21%	9.08%	4.13%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.31, 11.61 and 12.92. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.41, 11.53 and 12.80. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.17, 11.85 and 13.50. The current P/E Ratio is 11.33 based on a stock price of $130.35 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $11.50. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) Ratios. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.55, 11.81 and 12.87. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.51, 11.60 and 12.78. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 11.03 based on a stock price of $130.35 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $11.82. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $138.26. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 0.99 and 1.10. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.94 based on a stock price of $130.35. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.89. The current P/B Ratio is 1.76 based on a Book Value of $102,367M, Book Value per Share of $73.88 and a stock price of $130.35. The current ratio is 7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $79.90. This implies a Book Value of $110,709M and a ratio of 1.63. This ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.89. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.23 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $21,942M, Cash Flow per Share of $15.84 and a stock price of $130.35. The current ratio is 40% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, for banks, the Cash Flow ratio is not generally used for testing.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.93%. The current dividend yield is 4.05% based on a stock price of $130.35 and Dividends of $5.28. The current dividend yield is 3.1% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.87%. The current dividend yield is 4.05% based on a stock price of $130.35 and Dividends of $5.28. The current dividend yield is 4.6% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.17. The current P/S Ratio is 3.37 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $53.656M, Revenue per Share of $38.72 and a stock price of $130.35. The current ratio is 6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Both the dividend yield test show this. The P/S Ratio tests says reasonable but above the median. Most of the other tests, as the dividend yield tests, say the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (8), Hold (4) and Underperform (1). The consensus 12 month stock price of $143.09. This implies a total return of 13.82% with 9.77% from Capital Gains and 4.05% from dividend based on a current stock price of $130.35.

Paul Harris on Stock Chase gives a Hold recommendation on the Royal Bank. His comments are: "He still owns. Banking industry is in very good shape in this country. Great dividend yield, trading at reasonable book value. Trouble is that net interest income is being offset by investment banking and such that are doing poorly. Longer term, will do well. Lots of capital to increase dividends or buy back shares. He is comfortable owning at these levels. May have seen a bit of weakness due to the HSBC purchase. " See Stock Chase.

Analyst on Stock Chase like this company. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense list with a rating of B. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool thinks if you want reliable dividends and decent capital gains you should consider this bank. Andrew Button on Motley Fool thinks this bank is a good one for passive income. The banks talks about their 2022 results on Newswire. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talk about this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and list no risk checks.

Royal Bank of Canada is one of the two largest banks in Canada. It is a diversified financial services company, offering personal and commercial banking, wealth-management services, insurance, corporate banking, and capital markets services. The bank is concentrated in Canada, with additional operations in the U.S. and other countries. Its web site is here Royal Bank of Canada.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Rogers Sugar Inc (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF) ... learn more on Monday, January 9, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Bank of Montreal

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. Stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Bank of Montreal .

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I have done well with this bank. All the big Canadian banks have done quite well over the long term. I do expect that they will not do as well in the future. In the past they have taken over Canadian Trust companies, Canadian stock companies, and got into insurance. They are now going international to grow. International banking, to me, seems more volatile than Canadian banking. The stock price is probably reasonable.

I own this stock of Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO). When I bought this stock in 1983, I thought it was the best bank stock to buy at that time.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I looked at total growth and per year growth over the past 5 and 10 years for several items. This is what I found.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	51.44%	8.65%
5	AEPS Growth	62.13%	10.15%
5	Net Income Growth	153.03%	20.41%
5	Cash Flow Growth	70.46%	11.26%
5	Dividend Growth	45.17%	7.74%
5	Stock Price Growth	26.98%	4.05%
10	Revenue Growth	108.99%	7.65%
10	AEPS Growth	122.35%	8.32%
10	Net Income Growth	223.16%	12.65%
10	Cash Flow Growth	-106.94%	-7.01%
10	Dividend Growth	82.50%	6.20%
10	Stock Price Growth	112.62%	7.26%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,034.62 you would have bought 17 shares at $60.86 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $634.61 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,085.22. Your total return would have been $2,719.83.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$60.86	$1,034.62	17	10	$634.61	$2,085.22	$2,719.83

If you had invested in this company in December 1992, for $1,006.25 you would have bought 92 shares at $10.94 per share. In December 2022, after 30 years you would have received $6,394.61 in dividends. The stock would be worth $11,284.72. Your total return would have been $17,678.72.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$10.94	$1,006.25	92	30	$6,394.00	$11,284.72	$17,678.72

This is one of my first stocks to buy. I have been tracking my stock via Quicken for 35 years and my Total Return per year is 15.26% with 8.65% from capital gains and 6.61% from dividends.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.54%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 4.10%, 4.12% and 4.38%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 7.7% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 2023 and the increase was for 2.9%. However, this bank often increases dividends more than once in a year. The yearly increase in dividends between 2022 and 2023 is 11%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 39% with 5 year coverage at 42%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is negative with 5 year coverage at 49%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 8% with 5 year coverage at 21%.

Debt Ratios are fine. Because this is a financial stock, I am looking at Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio and for 2022 it is good at 0.84. The Liquidity Ratio is not important, but I calculate one anyway and I get a good ratio of 6.48. The Debt Ratio is 1.07 and this is fine for a bank.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 39 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	7.74%	7.93%	4.05%	3.88%
2012	10	6.20%	11.70%	7.26%	4.44%
2007	15	4.32%	9.52%	5.32%	4.20%
2002	20	7.51%	9.76%	5.54%	4.22%
1997	25	7.70%	9.42%	5.56%	3.85%
1992	30	7.85%	13.92%	8.39%	5.53%
1987	35	6.88%	21.58%	10.90%	10.68%
1983	39	6.20%	12.88%	7.67%	5.21%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.45, 10.64 and 11.97. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.01, 11.12 and 12.44. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.07, 11.00 and 13.17. The current P/E Ratio is 9.91 based on a stock price of $125.90 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $12.70. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.02, 10.22 and 11.28. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.22, 10.42 and 11.76. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 9.26 based on AEPS estimate for 2023 of $13.60 and a stock price of $125.90. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $171.03. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.71, 0.80 and 0.90. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.74 based on a stock price of $125.90. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.38. The current P/B Ratio is 1.32 based on a Book Value of $64,730M, Book Value per Share of $96.60 and a stock price of $125.90. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate of $105.00. This implies a book Value of $71,096M and with a stock price of $125.90, a P/B Ratio of 1.20. This ratio is 13% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.67. This is a very low ratio because of some negative Cash Flows within the past 10 years. The current P/CF Ratio is 17.20. This ratio is 544% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, I would question the value of this test. Also, Cash Flows on banks tend to be largely ignored by analyst.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.38. The current dividend yield is 4.54 based on dividends of $5.72 and a stock price of $125.90. The current dividend yield is 4% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.12. The current dividend yield is 4.54 based on dividends of $5.72 and a stock price of $125.90. The current dividend yield is 10% above the 10 year dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.56. The current P/S Ratio is 2.66 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $32,052M and Revenue per Share of $47.34. The current P/S Ratio is 4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests say it is reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio tests say the stock price if reasonable and above the median (but by only 4%). So, I call this as reasonable. Most of the other testing, except for the P/E Ratio testing says that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (9), Hold (3) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $142.69. This implies a total return of $17.88% with 13.34% from capital gains and 4.54% from dividends.

I think that the sell recommendation is unusual. However, on Stock Chase there was a Do Not Buy recommendation by a Paul Gardner. He writes in September 2022: "Got stung by low forecasts. Margin spreads are suffering. Not one of his favourites. Sector is cheap, but he is still not being aggressive. Inverted yield curve is not good for banks. "

Analysts on Stock Chase like this bank. Stock Chase gives it 5 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense List with a B rating. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks you can currently buy this bank at a huge discount. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool talks about getting a bigger US footprint with the purchase of the Bank of the West. This bank put out a Press Release on their 2022 results. Simply Wall Street reviews this bank via Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street puts out two warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 10.4% per year for the next 3 years; and shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5.

Bank of Montreal is a diversified financial-services provider based in North America, operating four business segments: Canadian personal and commercial banking, U.S. P&C banking, wealth management, and capital markets. The bank's operations are primarily in Canada, with a material portion also in the U.S. Its web site is here Bank of Montreal .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Metro Inc (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY) ... learn more on Friday, January 6, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy January 2023 .... learn more on Thursday, January 5, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Metro Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is probably expensive. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Metro Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I certainly think it is a good company. Grocery stores, tend to do a steady business no matter what is happening in the economy. I have done very well with this stock. The price is probably currently just into the expensive zone.

I own this stock of Metro Inc (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF). I bought this stock first at the end of 2001 because it is a good time to purchase as market is relatively low and Metro was on my hit list. I brought this stock in 2004 as I was looking for something I already own, that has increasing dividends and reasonable P/E for stock at this time. By 2009, Metro stock was over 10% of my portfolio because it had grown so strong, so I sold some to reduce the percentage of it in my portfolio.

The financial year ends for this stock on September 30 each year, so I am reviewing the financial year of September 30, 2022.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that in the last 5 and 10 year periods, dividends have grown faster than both Revenue and Cash Flow. Dividend growth will probably be lower in the future.

Year	Item	Growth
5	Revenue Growth	43.37%
5	AEPS Growth	65.37%
5	Net Income Growth	43.32%
5	Cash Flow Growth	63.61%
5	Dividend Growth	71.31%
5	Stock Price Growth	57.49%
10	Revenue Growth	57.27%
10	AEPS Growth	151.87%
10	Net Income Growth	76.01%
10	Cash Flow Growth	108.58%
10	Dividend Growth	295.71%
10	Stock Price Growth	247.16%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,013.28 you would have bought 48 shares at $21.11 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $322.89 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,598.56. Your total return would have been $3,921.45.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$21.11	$1,013.28	48	10	$322.89	$3,598.56	$3,921.45

If you had invested in this company in December 1992, for $1,000.14 you would have bought 1266 shares at $0.79 per share. In December 2022, after 30 years you would have received $11,035.64 in dividends. The stock would be worth $94,912.02. Your total return would have been $105,947.66.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$0.79	$1,000.14	1,266	30	$11,035.64	$94,912.02	$105,947.66

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.47%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also low at 1.60%, 1.56% and 1.47%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 11.37% per year over the past 5 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 31% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is 28% with 5 year coverage also at 28%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 14% with 5 year coverage also at 14%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is 31% with 5 year coverage at 30%. (There is no agreement on what the FCF is, but they are close.)

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2022 is 0.15 and is good and low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is low at 1.12, but add in Cash Flow after dividends and it is good at 1.65. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 1.98. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.02 and 1.02.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	11.37%	14.94%	13.25%	1.68%
2012	10	14.75%	15.19%	13.51%	1.82%
2007	15	14.03%	17.19%	15.37%	1.63%
2002	20	14.63%	15.14%	13.54%	1.65%
1997	25	16.24%	16.31%	14.60%	1.69%
1992	30	18.92%	18.24%	16.39%	2.13%
1990	32		21.91%	19.36%	2.70%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.86, 17.73, 20.46. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.58, 17.11 and 19.15. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.97, 12.28 and 15.87. The current P/E Ratio is 20.10 based on a stock price of $74.97 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $3.73. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The company also supplies Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.36, 17.21 and 19.21. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.20, 17.19 and 19.09. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 17.81 based on a stock price of $74.97 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $4.21. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $51.39. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.14, 1.33 and 1.51. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.46 based on a stock price of $74.97. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.29. The current P/B Ratio is 2.69 based on a Book Value of $6,605M, Book Value per Share of $27.88 and a stock price of $74.97. The current ratio is 17% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.16. The current P/CF Ratio is 17.98 based on a Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $4.17, Cash Flow of $988M and a stock price of $74.97. The current ratio is 48% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive the median. The Cash Flow per Share for the last 5 years were $2.93, $2.70, $5.88, $6.51, and $6.17. Analysts expect a drop in Cash Flow of 32% between 2022 and 2023.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.47%. The current ratio is 1.47% based on a stock price of $74.97 and dividends of $1.10. The current dividend yield is the same as the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.46%. The current ratio is 1.47% based on a stock price of $74.97 and dividends of $1.10. The current dividend yield is 6% below 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.75. The current P/S Ratio is 0.91 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $19,586M, Revenue per Share of $82.67. The current ratio is 20.1% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. The dividend yield tests say it is reasonable with the dividend yield test saying it is above the median. The P/S Ratio test shows that the stock price is just into the expensive region.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (1), Hold (8), Underperform (1). The consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $76.18. This implies a total return of 3.08% with 1.61% from capital gains and 1.47% from dividends based on a current stock price of $74.97.

Some analyst on Stock Chase like this stock and some do not. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is on Money Sense List with a C rating. Jed Lloren on Motley Fool talks about groceries stores being good in all economic climates. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool thinks this company is still selling at a fair price. Metro put out a press release on Newswire about their annual 2022 results. Simply Wall Street Via Yahoo Finance talks about Metro missing the EPS estimate. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It detects no risks.

Metro is one of the largest grocery retailers in Canada. It utilizes an array of business models, but it most frequently acts as either a retailer, operating individual stores, or a franchiser, licensing its trademarks and supplying merchandise to franchisees. The preponderance of its operations is in Quebec, which houses over 70% of its owned and franchised food and drug outlets. Its web site is here Metro Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (TSX-AEM, NYSE-AEM) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 4, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks January 2023.... learn more on January 3, 2023 around 5 pm.

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