Just Energy Group Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Utility Company in Trouble. Stock price seems to be cheap. It has cut its dividend. It is planning on a 33 to 1 consolidation and a recapitalization. I will probably stop following this stock. See my spreadsheet on Just Energy Group Inc.

I do not own this stock of Just Energy Group Inc (TSX-JE, NYSE-JE). I started to follow this is July 2010. It was one of the high yield income trusts that people were talking about, so I decided to check it out.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company was doing poorly for the last couple of years, but analysts expect the company to make a profit this year. They hit a peak in 2012 and has been performing poorly since then.

This company is no longer paying dividends. On their site they say they are paying some dividends in September 2020, but it is unclear exactly what they are doing. They are recapitalizing the company. Tt appears there will be a consolidation and preferred shares and Convertible Debentures will be given shares, and some other investment entities will be the major shareholders. I will see how this works out next year, but I might decide then not to follow this stock anymore.

Debt Ratios are awful. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio in 2019 is 4.91 and 9.01 now. This is very high. The Intangible Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is also very high at 3.45 in 2019 and 6.29 now. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.69. If you add in cash flow and current portion of long term debt it is just 0.85. With the same calculation now, it is 0.96. When this is under 1.00 it means current liabilities cannot be covered by current assets. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 0.71 and is now 0.73. This stock has a negative breakup value. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios cannot be calculated because of a negative book value.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-26.56%	-8.41%	-18.55%	10.13%
2009	10	-20.50%	-6.81%	-17.15%	10.34%
2004	15	-11.93%	-2.14%	-13.34%	11.21%
2001	18	-4.75%	19.49%	-4.08%	23.57%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 2.01, 2.64 and 3.27. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 1.85, 2.63 and 3.42. The corresponding historical ratios are 5.49, 6.78 and 8.06. The current P/E Ratio is 2.71 based on a stock price of $0.38 and 2020 EPS estimate of $0.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The best Graham Price that I can calculate is of $1.31. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.84, 1.33 and 1.11. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.29 based on a stock price of $0.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I cannot do a Price/Book Value per Share Ratio test as the book value is negative.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.97. The current P/CF Ratio is 3.17 based on 2020 Cash Flow per Share estimate of $0.12 and Cash Flow of $18.2M and a stock price of $0.38. The current ratio is 65% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap

They have cancelled the dividends, so I cannot do any dividend yield test.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.30. The current P/S Ratio is 0.02 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $2,431M, Revenue per Share of $16.03 and a stock price of $0.38. The current ratio is 92% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively cheap. This is what the P/S Ratio testing is showing. The P/CF Ratio testing is saying this too. You have to wonder if the other testing is valid because of earning losses, and a negative book value.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price is cheap. However, they are going to do a stock consolidation and a recapitalization. Shareholders will probably not fair well in this.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (1), and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $0.40. This implies a total return of 5.26%, all from capital gains.

Analysts on Stock Chase last left entries dated in 2018 and they did not care for this company then. Vishesh Raisinghani on Motley Fool says this company has a dangerous level of debt. Nelson Smith on Motley Fool talks about when you should consider selling a stock and uses Just Energy to illustrate this. A writer on Simply Wall Street says this stock is selling at a fair value. He points out there are 5 warning signs for this company that are a bit concerning. News Release from the company talking about their recapitalization plans.

Just Energy Group Inc is a Canadian-based electricity and natural gas company that operates in various Canadian provinces, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The company mainly sells its products to residential and small community customers through its Consumer segment and to mid-sized commercial customers through its Commercial segment. Its web site is here Just Energy Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF) ... learn more on Friday, September 11, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Utilities and Dividends.... learn more on Thursday, September 10, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

SmartCentres REIT

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. The stock price is relatively cheap. Both Dividend Payout Ratios and Debt Ratios are fine. It is a dividend aristocrat. One problem is that we do not know how badly REITs will be affected by Covid 19. See my spreadsheet on SmartCentres REIT.

I do not own this stock of SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF). Once you have 5 or 6 stocks, you might want to consider a REIT for diversification. REITs are an easy way to investment in real estate. I am therefore following a few REIT stocks and in 2009 I decided to look at a few on the Dividend Achiever's List. Between 2009 and now it was taken from the list and added back to this list.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they have a lot of cash on hand $532M at the end of the second quarter (compared to the end of last year of $55M) because of issuance of debt in the first and second quarters. With this new debt, they paid off $483M of old debt and have the rest sitting as cash.

The dividend yields are good to high with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is high (above 7%) at 8.83%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are in the good range (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.43%, 5.60% and 5.84%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%). Dividends have increased by 3.04% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 2.8% and it was for 2019.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was 98% with 5 year coverage at 79%. Because this is a REIT, we should look at Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) and Funds from Operations (FFO) Rates. The DPR for AFFO for 2019 was 86% with 5 year coverage at 82%. The DPR for FFO for 2019 was 85% with 5 year coverage at 78%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 63% with 5 year coverage at 66%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 was 55% with 5 year coverage at 53%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.78. Because this is a REIT, I look at Debt/Covering Assets Ratio and it is 0.45. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is low at 0.54. If you added in Cash Flow after cash distributions it is 1.01. If you add in Cash Flow after distributions and adding back in the current long term debt it is 1.54. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.18. This Debt Ratio drops to 1.99 currently, but this is still a good ratio. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are good at 1.85 and 0.85. The current ones are fine at 2.01 and 1.01.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	3.04%	8.64%	2.71%	5.93%
2009	10	1.57%	11.69%	4.81%	6.88%
2004	15	2.67%	10.28%	3.46%	6.83%
1999	20	2.86%	12.55%	5.80%	6.75%
1997	22		27.48%	14.19%	13.29%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.99, 14.02, and 15.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.92, 13.98, and 15.29. The corresponding Historical Ratios are 13.65, 16.85, and 19.07. The current P/E Ratio is 11.38 based on a stock price of $20.96 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Since this is an Income Trust, we need to look at Funds from Operations (FFO). The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 13.23, 14.37 and 15.51. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.23, 14.69 and 16.19. The current P/FFO Ratio is 9.79 based on 2020 FFO estimate of 2.14 and a stock price of $20.96. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Since this is an Income Trust, we need to look at Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 13.93, 15.15 and 16.33. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.93, 15.15 and 16.35. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 12.19 based on 2020 AFFO estimate of 1.72 and a stock price of $20.96. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $33.86. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 0.88 and 0.95. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.58 based on a stock price of $20.96. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.24. The current P/B Ratio is 0.82 based on a Book Value of $4,317, Book Value per Share of $25.52 and a stock price of $20.96. The current P/B Ratio is 34% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.77. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.50 based on last 12 month Cash Flow of $337.8M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.00 and a stock price of $20.96. The current P/CF Ratio is 33% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.84%. The current dividend yield is 8.83% based on a current dividend of $1.85, and a stock price of $20.96. The current dividend yield is 51% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.60%. The current dividend yield is 8.83% based on a current dividend of $1.85, and a stock price of $20.96. The current dividend yield is 58% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.57. The current P/S Ratio is 4.50 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $788M. The current P/S Ratio is 32% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. Both the dividend yield tests are showing this result as is the P/S Ratio test. The other rests are showing the same results. I can find no problem with any of the prices.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a Dividend Growth stock. REITs tend to have good dividend yields and low growth. This is what this company has. The problem is that with Covid 19 it is hard to know how it will affect REITs. So far, shareholders have done well with this stock. It might be a REIT to consider if you are looking to buy a REIT.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $24.88. This implies a total return of 27.33%, with 18.70% from capital gains and 8.83% from dividends.

Now I want to look at stock prices and stock price testing. If I move the current price to $30.96 from $20.96 what would be the results of stock price testing? The beauty of spreadsheets is you can answer an “what if?” question. In this case what if the stock price was $10 higher at $30.96. What would be the testing result? The thing is that the way I test, the stock price would have to move a fair bit to get a different result. In this case, I am moving the stock price up 47.7%. Result is below.

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.99, 14.02 and 15.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.92, 13.98 and 15.29. The corresponding Historical Ratios are 13.65, 16.85 and 19.07. The current P/E Ratio is 13.82 based on a stock price of $30.96 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Since this is an Income Trust, we need to look at Funds from Operations (FFO). The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 13.23, 14.37 and 15.51. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.23, 14.69 and 16.19. The current P/FFO Ratio is 14.47 based on 2020 FFO estimate of 2.14 and a stock price of $30.96. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Since this is an Income Trust, we need to look at Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 13.93, 15.15 and 16.33. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.93, 15.15 and 16.35. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 14.79 based on 2020 AFFO estimate of 1.72 and a stock price of $30.96. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $33.86. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 0.88 and 0.95. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.88 based on a stock price of $30.96. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.24. The current P/B Ratio is 0.82 based on a Book Value of $4,317, Book Value per Share of $25.52 and a stock price of $30.96. The current P/B Ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.77. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.50 based on last 12 month Cash Flow of $337.8M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.00 and a stock price of $30.96. The current P/CF Ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.84%. The current dividend yield is 5.98% based on a current dividend of $1.85, and a stock price of $30.96. The current dividend yield is 2% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.60%. The current dividend yield is 5.98% based on a current dividend of $1.85, and a stock price of $30.96. The current dividend yield is 7% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.57. The current P/S Ratio is 6.64 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $788M. The current P/S Ratio is 2% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is that the stock price is relatively around the 10 median. Results are showing with a price of $30.96 that that price is just below or just above the median.

Analysts on Stock Chase have mixed views on this REIT. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks you are better off with an aristocrat REIT. A writer on Simply Wall Street is worried about the high debt leverage of this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street looks at ownership of this REIT. Financial Nirvana Mama on YouTube talks about this stock and RIOCan.

SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust is a Canadian open-ended mutual fund trust. The company principally generates revenue from property leasing operations. Smart REIT comprises two groups of properties: retail and mixed-use. Its web site is here SmartCentres REIT.

The last stock I wrote about was about was High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Just Energy Group Inc (TSX-JE, NYSE-JE) ... learn more on Wednesday, September 9, 2020 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I will write about Mini Parks.... learn more on Tuesday, September 8, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

High Liner Foods

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Consumer. The stock price seems cheap. This stock is no longer a dividend growth stock because of the current flat dividends after a big cut in 2019. Analysts do not see any dividend increases in the short term. A positive is that there is insider buying. A negative is the debt. See my spreadsheet on High Liner Foods.

I do not own this stock of High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF). This is a stock liked by the Investment Reporter and is considered to be of average risk. The MPL Communication’s site is here. Ryan Irvine of Keystone also liked this company.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that over the long term shareholders have often not made much money with this stock. The 10, 15 and 20 year returns are not bad at 11.81%, 7.21% and 12.04% per year. The 25 year total return is ok at 5.25% per year. Shareholders that held this stock for 30, 35 and 36 years have broken even in total return. However, currently the stock has been falling since hitting a high in 2015.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth currently non-existent. The current dividend yield is Moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.48%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 3.22%, 2.59% and 2.49%. The company decided to cut the dividend last year by some 66% to have been cash flow and pay down the debt. Prior to 2019 the company had been increasing the dividend since 2008. Dividends are paid in CDN$, but the company reports in US$.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. This dividend was cut in the 3 quarter of 2019 by 66%. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 74% with 5 year coverage at 48%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 17% with 5 year coverage at 15%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 was 6% with 5 year coverage at 35%. The sites I look at seem to agree on FCF values.

Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap in 2019 was 1.40. Currently it is at 1.41. The Intangible and Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 1.48 with a current ratio of 1.47. Both these are much too high. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 was 1.87 and this is good. The Debt Ratio is a little low at 1.49 as I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are too high at 3.06 and 2.06 as I prefer them to be less than 3.00 and 2.00. The current ratios are better at 2.81 and 1.81.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-6.37%	-15.12%	-18.34%	3.22%
2009	10	8.13%	11.81%	5.93%	5.87%
2004	15	7.48%	7.21%	3.28%	3.93%
1999	20		12.04%	8.05%	3.99%
1994	25		5.15%	2.93%	2.22%
1989	30		0.84%	-0.65%	1.49%
1984	35		0.79%	-0.63%	1.42%
1983	36		-0.28%	-1.56%	1.28%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-8.89%	-17.75%	-20.71%	2.96%
2009	10	5.61%	9.24%	3.48%	5.76%
2004	15	6.77%	6.80%	2.61%	4.19%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.31, 14.66 and 20.13. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.05, 15.13 and 21.02. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.41, 10.88 and 13.32. The current P/E Ratio is 6.33 based on a stock price of $8.06 and 2020 EPS estimate of $1.29. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $17.67. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 1.12 and 1.47. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.46 based on a stock price of $8.06. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.07. The current P/B Ratio is 0.74 based on a Book Value of $277M, Book Value per Share of $8.31 and a stock price of $6.17. The current ratio is 64% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.10. The current P/CF Ratio is 3.01 based on 2020 Cash Flow per Share estimate of $2.05, Cash Flow of $68.4M and a stock price of $6.17. The current ratio is 41% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.49. The current dividend yield is 2.48% based on dividends of $0.20 and a stock price of $8.06. The current dividend yield is 0.4% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median. This is in CDN$. A problem is the big cut in dividends in 2019 of 66%.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.59. The current dividend yield is 2.48% based on dividends of $0.20 and a stock price of $8.06. The current dividend yield is 4% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and above the median. This is in CDN$. A problem is the big cut in dividends in 2019 of 66%.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.40. The current ratio is 0.24 based on a stock price of $6.07, 2020 Revenue estimate of $842 and Revenue per Share of $25.22. The current ratio is 39% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. This stock is showing as relatively cheap in most of the tests except for the dividend yield tests. The problem with the dividend yield tests is the 2019 dividend cut. I see no problems with the other tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The current stock price is probably cheap. This stock has had a very checkered pass. Unfortunately, the stock was falling in 2019 before the recent problems. Analysts expect it to give good EPS growth going forward and the stock has recovered a lot in August.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $10.49 ($7.99 US$). This implies a total return of 32.57% with 30.09% from capital gains and 2.48% from dividends.

There are not many entries on Stock Chase and they are mostly negative.. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says this is a good stock to pick up for your TFSA, but it is high risk. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the company’s debt could be a risk. A writer on Simply Wall Street says this company’s higher than average P/E Ratio is justified because of expected future growth. Ostrich Investing on YouTube talks about the first quarterly review of 2019 when the company cut the dividend. The Blogger Dividend Gangster talks about this stock in an blog. See near the bottom of the blog entry.

High Liner Foods Inc. is North America's processor and marketer of value-added frozen seafood companies servicing the retail, food service and club store channels. The Company's retail branded products are sold in the U.S., Canada and Mexico under the High Liner, Fisher Boy, Mirabel, and Sea Cuisine labels, and are available in groceries and club stores. The Company also sells branded products to restaurants and institutions under the High Liner, Icelandic Seafood, FPI, Viking, Mirabel, Samband of Iceland, and American Pride Seafoods labels. Its web site is here High Liner Foods.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Capital Power Corp (TSX-CPX, OTC- CPRHF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF) ... learn more on Tuesday, September 8, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Capital Power Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. This is a dividend growth stock from the aristocrat list. It does have problems. They are paying in dividends more than they earn, but the dividends are well covered by cash flow. They also have a high debt level. See my spreadsheet on Capital Power Corp.

I do not own this stock of Capital Power Corp (TSX-CPX, OTC-CPRHF). I found this utility on the Aristocrat list. It produces mainly green energy.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that all the financial statements from 2009 to present reduce all value to millions of dollars. They are giving the bare minimum values that they need to. Not my favourite way for company to report.

It also does not have the result that I would like for a Utility. There is too much red in the spreadsheet. The per share figures are not good. Revenue has increased in the past 5 and 10 years by 6.9% and 5.5%, but Revenue per Share is up by 2% for the past 5 years, but down by 10% for the past 10 years. This is because outstanding shares have increased by 4.8% and 17% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The only bright spot appears to be the dividends paid and their increases. However, in 2019 they are paying out 258% of their EPS and the 5 year coverage is 144%. They cannot afford the dividends. This is a disappointment. Although, the dividends are covered adequately by the cash flow.

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.99%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are good at 6.33%, 5.99% and 5.95%. The dividend growth for the past 5 years is at 7.2% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2020 and it was for 6.8%. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving, especially the DPR for EPS. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 258% with 5 year coverage at 144%. Analysts do not expect this DPR to get below 100% until 2022. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share is 26% and 31%. The DPR for 2019 for Free Cash Flow is 280% with 5 year coverage at 136%. Analysts expect this DPR to be 46% in 2020.

Debt Ratios could be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.71. This is fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.60. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends you only get to 0.97. If you also add in the current portion of the long term debt, the ratio is 2.04. The Debt Ratio is 1.56. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 4.09 and 2.62, respectively. The Leverage Ratio is too high, but the Debt/Equity Ratio is fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 10 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	7.20%	11.31%	5.75%	5.55%
2009	10	3.94%	10.30%	4.87%	5.42%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.73, 23.18 and 26.77. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 21.89, 25.43 and 28.67. The corresponding historical ratios are 21.73, 23.44 and 26.77. The current P/E Ratio is 28.76 based on a stock price of $29.34 and 2020 EPS estimate of $1.02. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $21.09. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.10 and 1.19. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.39 based on a stock price of $29.34. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.02. The current P/B Ratio is 1.51 based on a Book Value of $2,034, Book Value per Share of $19.39 and a stock price of $29.34. The current ratio is 49% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.08. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.81 based on 2020 Cash Flow per Share estimate of $6.10, Cash Flow of $640M and a stock price of $29.34. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.95%. The current dividend yield is 6.99% based on dividends of $2.03 and a stock price of $29.34. The current dividend yield is 17.4% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.99%. The current dividend yield is 6.99% based on dividends of $2.03 and a stock price of $29.34. The current dividend yield is 16.6% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.63. The current P/S Ratio is 1.71 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $1,798M, Revenue per Share of $17.14 and a stock price of $29.34. The current ratio is 5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Both the dividend yield tests say the stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median with the P/S Test showing that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. The P/CF Ratio test shows the stock price below the median. The problem with the P/B Ratio tests is that the Book Values are declining due to the issuance of new shares. This is a problem. I do not see any problem in the other tests and both the P/E Ratio and the P/GP Ratio tests say the stock is expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably reasonable. This is a dividend growth stocks and probably will continue to be one. It is getting into green energy and this is a positive for some stock holders. I am currently happy with the utilities I hold and will not be buying this one.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (4) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $34.46. This would imply a total return of 24.44% with 6.99% from dividends and $17.45% from capital gains.

Analysts on Stock Chase really like or dislike this stock. One said it was a good company with growth and another one said that they were nothing about this company that interests him. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this company is crash proof. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the CEO's compensation for this company is comparable to CEO compensations with other companies of this size. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the ROCE of this is the same as the average for Renewable Energy Industry. The Blogger Dividend Earner recently reviewed this stock. The Blogger Wealth Simple in June 2020 name this stock in his list of Best Dividend Stocks in Canada.

Capital Power Corp is a North American power producer whose principal activities are developing, acquiring, and operating power plants. Through its subsidiary, Capital Power owns and operates a portfolio of natural gas, coal, wind, solar, and solid fuel energy generating facilities. These are located throughout Western and Central Canada and the U.S. Its web site is here Capital Power Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF) ... learn more on Friday, September 4, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy September 2020.... learn more on Thursday, August 03, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

ATCO Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests say it is cheap. I worry about the debt level and that they value their Property, Plant and Equipment way above the market cap. Dividends are covered well by EPS and Cash Flow. See my spreadsheet on ATCO Ltd.

I do not own this stock of ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF). I started to look at this stock in 2009 because it was a dividend paying stock that was on everyone’s list. At that time this stock was on the Dividend Achievers list, the Dividend Aristocrats list and also was on Mike Higgs’ list. ATCO (TSX-ACO-X) owns 88% Canadian Utilities (TSX-CU), so you would not buy both these stocks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they have a market value of $5,707M but the company values their Property, Plant and Equipment at $17,857M. This is a big discrepancy. I know that this discrepancy has been happening for some time. Their Long Term Debt/Market Ratio is very high at 1.62. It is a problem when it is above 1.00. It has been above 1.00 since 2009 that I know of. It is obvious that the market does not value the companies Property, Plant and Equipment assets at the level the company does.

Also, there is a lack of growth in EPS. When you look at growth for the past 5 years it is showing as 4.19%. The company has been buying back stock at the rate of 3.19% per year over the past 5 years. So, the increase in EPS is just 1.00 over the past 5 years. Also, if you compare the average EPS for the 5 years ending in 2014 to the average EPS for the 5 years ending in 2019, the EPS is down by 3% per year. There was a gain on Sale of Operations of $174 or equal to 17% of the EPS or 2019. The only good news about the EPS is that the company 5 year coverage of Dividends by EPS is at 49%.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.32%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate, but lower at 2.73%, 2.20% and 2.14%. The dividend growth for the last 5 years is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 13.5% per year. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 36% with 5 year coverage at 49%. The DPR for CFPS is 9% with 5 year coverage at 8%. The DPR for 2019 for Free Cash Flow is problematic as the three sites I looked at had different value for FCF. I looked at Morningstar, Market Screener and Wall Street Journal. Using the value from MS, I get a DPR for FCF for 2019 at 55% with 5 year coverage at 604%

Debt Ratios are fine, but the company does have a lot of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 1.62. This is high and I talked about this above. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is very good at 2.24, but this does fluctuate a lot and has a 5 year median of 1.67. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.57. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.76 and 1.76.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	13.49%	3.56%	0.87%	2.69%
2009	10	12.47%	10.82%	7.99%	2.84%
2004	15	10.75%	11.28%	8.51%	2.78%
1999	20	11.02%	12.16%	9.26%	2.90%
1994	25	13.55%	13.84%	10.61%	3.22%
1989	30	12.29%	13.08%	10.26%	2.83%
1988	31	11.87%	14.25%	11.09%	3.16%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.29, 14.12 and 16.69. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.30, 13.01 and 14.45. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.54, 10.74 and 12.37. The current P/E Ratio is 14.20 based on a stock price of $40.04 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $$2.82. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $47.27. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.91 and 1.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.85 based on a stock price of $40.04. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.48. The current P/B Ratio is 1.14 based on a Book Value of $4,039M, Book Value per Share of $35.22 and a stock price of $40.04. The current ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.04. The current P/CF Ratio is 2.71 based on a stock price of $40.04, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 of $14.80 and Cash Flow of $1,697M. The current ratio is 11% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.14%. The current dividend yield is 4.35% based on a stock price of $40.04 and dividends per share of $1.74. The current dividend yield is 103% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.20%. The current dividend yield is 4.35% based on a stock price of $40.04 and dividends per share of $1.74. The current dividend yield is 98% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.12. The current P/S Ratio is 1.14 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $4,039M, Revenue per Share of $35.22 and a stock price of $40.04. The current ratio is 1% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and about the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The P/S Ratio testing just says it is reasonable, even though the dividend yield tests say it is cheap. I suspect it is in the reasonable category, but I could be wrong. I like the P/S Ratio test because revenue drives, in the end, earnings and cash flow.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is at a reasonable price. They have done well for the shareholders overtime and they have been paying and increasing their dividends for a long time. I worry about their debt level.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3), Hold (3) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $46.56. This implies a total return of $20.63 with 16.28% from capital gains and 4.35% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase think this company is a good buy and their top pick. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says this dividend aristocrat has raised their dividends every year since 1993. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this stock is cheap as it has a P/E 8.78 compared to peer average of 17.58. (However, part of the EPS is from a Sale and current P/E is 14.20.) A writer on Simply Wall Street says this is an attractive dividend stock that increases its dividends and can cover the dividend with their earnings and cash flow. The Blogger Dividend Growth Investing and Retirement took a look at this stock and other Canadian Utility stocks.

Atco Ltd is a Canadian holding company that offers gas, electric, and infrastructure solutions. The largest subsidiary of the company is Canadian utilities, which operates natural gas, electricity, and logistical services. Atco's primary segments include electricity, pipelines and liquid, Neltume Ports and Structures and logistics. The firm mainly operates in Canada and Australia, along with some operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Mexico. Its web site is here ATCO Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Exchange Income Corp (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Capital Power Corp (TSX-CPX, OTC- CPRHF) ... learn more on Wednesday, September 2, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks September 2020.... learn more on Tuesday, September 1, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Exchange Income Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price seems reasonable and below the median. There is insider buying and this old income trust company is getting their DPR for EPS under control. Shareholders have done well in the past. They are issuing a lot of new shares. See my spreadsheet on Exchange Income Corp .

I do not own this stock of Exchange Income Corp (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF). One of my blogger readers suggested this stock as one to review. There was an interesting article about this stock in the G&M in May 2013. This article suggested that the company had a hefty yield with an acquisition tailwind. This article is available here.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that there was a lot of activity in Share capital. Changes were for the following items with a total increase of 3,387,231 shares. This is unusual as most companies have at most one or two items going into share outstanding changes.

• Issued upon conversion of convertible debentures 780,112
• Issued under dividend reinvestment plan 212,625
• Shares cancelled under NCIB (58,600)
• Issued under employee share purchase plan 49,265
• Issued under deferred share plan 18,220
• Issued under First Nations community partnership agreements 9,039
• Issued to L.V. Control Mfg. Ltd. vendors on closing 134,000
• Issued to Advanced Window. Inc. vendors on closing 103,000
• Prospectus offering, October 2019 2,139,000.

There is also insider buying by CEO, Chairman and one director. The Net Insider Buying is a 0.20% and this is high as you would expect insider buying at 0.01%. A lot of the buying occurred in March under $26.00.

The dividend yields are high with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is high (7% or higher) at 7.13%. The 5 year median dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.16%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are high at 7.10% and 7.42%. The dividend growth has mostly been low (under 8%) with the dividend growth for the past 5 years at 5.67% per year and the last increase done in 2019 was for 4.11%

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) could be improved for EPS. The DPR for 2019 is 89% with 5 year coverage at 96%. This is high. Also, the DPR for 2020 is expected to be 285% with 5 year coverage at 109% and DPR for 2021 is expected to be better at 59% with 5 year coverage at 107%. The company used to be an income trust and only in 2016 was DPR for EPS first below 100%. It has stayed in the 90% range since then.

The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 29% with 5 year coverage at 35%. These DPRs are good. The DPR for 2019 for Free Cash Flow is 58% with 5 year coverage at 62%. These are a bit high. The FCF I am using comes from the company, but none of the sites I looked at (Morningstar, Market Screen) agree on what the FCF is. This is often the problem with FCF.

Debt Ratios are fine, but some could improve. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.46. It increases to 0.74 in 2020 because debt has gone up 11% and the Stock Price has gone down 31%. The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 2.10. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.47, but I prefer it to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 3.11 and 2.11 as I prefer them to be below 3.00 and below 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	5.67%	20.91%	14.01%	6.90%
2009	10	3.59%	21.96%	13.22%	8.74%
2004	15	9.88%	21.39%	11.40%	9.99%
2003	16		35.65%	16.95%	18.70%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.60, 15.07 and 18.41. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.01, 15.80 and 19.77. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.82, 15.12 and 18.33. The current P/E Ratio is 39.98 based on a stock price of $31.98 and EPS of $0.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, analysts expect EPS to drop a lot this year by 68%, but then recover in 2021. The P/E Ratio for 2021 is 12.44 based on a stock price of $31.98 and EPS of $2.57. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $18.74. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.15 and 1.39. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.71 based on a stock price of $31.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, the Graham Price is also affected by the very low EPS for 2020. In 2021, the Graham Price is $33.54. The P/GP Ratio for 2021 is 0.93. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 1.64 based a Book Value of $679M, Book Value per Share of $19.46 and a stock price of $31.98. The current ratio is 6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.53. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.48 based on 2020 Cash Flow per Share estimate of $3.77. The current ratio is 34% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, analysts expect the cash flow to drop in 2020 and then go back up in 2021. The P/CF Ratio for 2021 is expected to be 4.77 based on 2021 Cash Flow per Share of $6.71 and a stock price of $31.98. The 2021 ratio is 25% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.42%. The current dividend yield is 7.13% based on dividends of $2.28 and a stock price of $31.98. The current dividend yield is 4% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.10%. The current dividend yield is 7.13% based on dividends of $2.28 and a stock price of $31.98. The current dividend yield is .04% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.97. The current P/S Ratio is 0.93 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $1,197M, Revenue per Share of $34.28 and a stock price of $31.98. The current ratio is 4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

However, the Revenue for 2021 is expected to fall 11% in 2020 and then recover in 2021. The P/S Ratio for 2021 is expected to be 0.78. The P/S Ratio is expected to be 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. There are problems with the testing of this stock as noted above. Analysts expect earnings and revenue and cash flow to drop for 2020 and then be better in 2021. This is hard to know at this point as we really have to wait and see what the fall brings in terms of C-19 and any vaccine or cure. No one know what will happen. But also note that the P/B Ratio testing which does not rely on estimates is also showing that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price certainly seems reasonable at the present time. It is a dividend growth company, which is what I like. This old income trust is getting their DPR for EPS under control. They have done well for shareholders in the past. I think this is a good company.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (4), Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $38.39. This implies a total return of 27.17% with 20.04% from capital gains and 7.13% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase have very wide opinions of this stock from great company to Do Not Buy. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says dividend is a mouthwatering 7.13%. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the company’s debt is a risk to the business. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the dividend is not sustainable. The Blogger Dividend Earner reviewed this stock in 2019. The dividend site of Sure Dividend also reviewed this stock in 2019.

Exchange Income Corp is a diversified acquisition-oriented corporation focused on opportunities in two sectors, aerospace, aviation services and equipment, and manufacturing. The business plan of the corporation is to invest in profitable, well-established companies with strong cash flows operating in niche markets. Its web site is here Exchange Income Corp .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Genworth MI Canada Inc (TSX-MIC, OTC- GMICF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF) ... learn more on Monday, August 31, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Genworth MI Canada Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. The stock price is reasonable and maybe cheap. They have great cash flow and have given out special dividends. However, revenue and earnings growth are not very good. See my spreadsheet on Genworth MI Canada Inc.

I do not own this stock of Genworth MI Canada Inc (TSX-MIC, OTC- GMICF). I was looking for another financial services stock to cover after I stopped covering Onex. This stock is from the TSX Aristocrat Index.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they had great cash flow. They have a number of times given out special dividends. However, EPS have not increased by much. If you look at the 5 and 10 year growth you see growth of 4.38% and 4.07%. However, over the same period shares have declined by 1.53% and 3.01%. So really, EPS has only grown over the past 5 and 10 years by2.85% (4.38%-1.53%) and 1.06% (4.07%-3.01%). Most of the time the yield is moderate, but it has been in the good range at different times in the past.

The dividends have increased every year since inception of the stock about 10 years ago. The dividend increases for the past 10 years is moderate (below 8%) at 7.53% per year. Note that this stock has also given out a number of special dividends over the years.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6%. The 5, 10 and historical are also in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.72%, 4.53% and 4.53%. Note that this stock was issued in 2009.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2019 is 127% with 5 year coverage at 54%. It is so high because of two special dividends given in 2019. Without the special dividends, the DPR for 2019 would have been 42%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 104% with 5 year coverage at 48%. Note that without the two special dividends in 2019 the DPR for CFPS would be 34%.

Debt Ratios are all good. Since this is a financial, I am looking how Debt/Asset Coverage for 2019 it is 0.42 which is a good ratio. Since this is a financial, Liquidity Ratio is not important, but I calculate it to be 4.40 for 2019. This is very high and good. The Debt Ratio is also high and good at 2.31 for 2019. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are low and good at 1.76 and 0.76.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 10 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	7.53%	14.54%	8.97%	5.57%
2009	10	8.93%	12.55%	7.74%	4.81%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.01, 7.79 and 9.27. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.08, 7.76 and 9.33. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.27, 7.73 and 11.62. The current P/E Ratio is 8.31 based on a stock price of $36.00 and 2020 EPS estimate of $4.33. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $64.04. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.44, 0.56 and 0.67. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.56 based on a stock price of $36.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.91. The current P/B Ratio is 0.86 based on a book value of $3,632, Book Value per Share of $42.09 and a stock price of $36.00. The current P/B Ratio is 6% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.78. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.23 based on last 12 month Cash Flow of $594M. Cash Flow per Share of $6.88 and a stock price of $36.00. The current ratio is 40% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.53%. The current dividend yield is 6.00% based on dividends of $2.16 and a stock price of $36.00. The current yield is 32% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.55%. The current dividend yield is 6.00% based on dividends of $2.16 and a stock price of $36.00. The current yield is 32% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.00. The current P/S Ratio is 4.28 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $526M, Revenue per Share of $8.41 and a stock price of $36.00. The current ratio is 14.5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable. It could be cheap. The P/S Ratio says that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. The dividend yield tests say the stock price is relatively cheap. Except for the P/E Ratio test, which is a good one, this testing is say that the stock price is either reasonable below the median or cheap. Even the P/E Ratio test shows the stock price as relatively reasonable. All the tests are good.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This seems like a good financial to invest in. It is a dividend growth company. I do have some concerns about the lack of growth in earnings and revenue.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price of $38.20. This implies a total return of 7.60% with 1.84% from capital gains and 5.76% from dividends.

Analyst on Stock Chase like this company. Stock Chase gives it 3 stars out of 5. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks this is a good dividend stock for your TFSA. A writer on Simply Wall Street says dividends are affordable, stable and growing. This report is from 2019 and this site has not more recent reports on this stock. Ben Hobson on Stockopedia says this stock dividend has the yield, growth and safety, which are the three main pillars for dividend investing . This is a new item of Brookfield Business Partners buying a stake in Genworth. The Blogger Dividend Earner has recently blogged about this stock.

Genworth MI Canada Inc is a private residential mortgage insurer, providing mortgage default insurance to mortgage originators and lenders. The company generates income from insurance premiums and investments. Its web site is here Genworth MI Canada Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exchange Income Corp (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF) ... learn more on Friday, August 28, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Gordon Pape.... learn more on Thursday, August 27, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Stock price is probably relatively expensive. The Dividend Yield is very low as is the Dividend Payout Ratios. They also have good Debt Ratios. See my spreadsheet on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

I do not own this stock of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF) but I used to. In 2004 I bought this stock as it had a good reputation and my spreadsheet showed I should do well with it. The only problem I had with it then was it had no dividend. I bought more of this stock in 2006 as it had a good past record and had started to pay a dividend. I sold the stock in my trading account in 2007 as I was raising mortgage money and this stock had gone down so it was cheap, tax wise, to sell. In 2013, I sold the stock in my Pension account as it had the lowest dividend yield and I had to raise money in this account because of yearly withdrawals.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed on this spreadsheet, all is green ink. This company has done very well. It is not much of a dividend stock because the yield is generally below 1%. However, if you are building a portfolio, this could be a good stock to have. The financial year end of at the end of April each year.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The current yield is low (under 2%) at 0.68%. The 5, 10 and historical yields are also low all at 0.60%. This dividend growth on this stock has always been good (14% and higher). See chart below. However, if you are looking at yield on your original cost, this stock does well over a long term. Yield on original cost after 10, 15 and 20 years for 2020 is 7.75%, and 61.79%, and 283.54%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are very good The DPR for EPS for 2020 is very low at just 10% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 6% with 5 year coverage also at 6%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 9% with 5 year coverage also at 9%.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.24 and is good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.72 and higher than it has been in the past as the 5 year median is just 1.07. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.64 with a 5 year median of 1.68. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are fine at 2.62 ad 1.59.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	26.19%	11.88%	11.26%	0.62%
2009	10	27.76%	29.10%	28.17%	0.93%
2004	15	14.91%	19.86%	19.28%	0.59%
1999	20		26.30%	25.65%	0.65%
1995	24		28.20%	27.58%	0.62%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	21.36%	9.09%	8.52%	0.94%
2009	10	24.11%	26.60%	25.66%	0.58%
2004	15	13.44%	13.73%	13.27%	0.46%
2001	18		15.34%	14.92%	0.42%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.93, 15.85 and 18.45. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.26, 15.89 and 18.94. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.50, 16.17 and 20.10. The current P/E Ratio is 20.13 based on a stock price of $45.20 and 2021 EPS estimate of $2.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$ terms. Also, the P/E Ratios have been fairly consistent over time.

I get a Graham Price of $24.45. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.14, 1.48 and 1.76. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.85 based on a stock price of $45.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$ terms.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.26. The current P/B Ratio is 3.82 based on a stock price of $45.20, Book Value of $13,293M, and Book Value per Share of $11.83. The current ratio is 17% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and but above median. This is in CDN$ terms.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.01. The current P/CF Ratio is 12.68 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $3.30 ($2.70 US$), Cash Flow per Share of $3,967M and a stock price of $45.20. The current ratio is 41% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$ terms.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.60. The current dividend yield is 0.62 based on dividends of $0.28 and a stock price of $45.20. The current dividend yield is 3% above the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in CDN$ terms.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.60. The current dividend yield is 0.62 based on dividends of $0.28 and a stock price of $45.20. The current dividend yield is 3% above the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in CDN$ terms.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.50. The current P/S Ratio is 0.75 based on 2021 Revenue Estimate of $51,163M, Revenue per Share of $45.98 and a Stock Price of $34.45. The current ratio is 49% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in US$ terms. You will get similar results in CDN$ terms.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively expensive. There is a disconnect between the testing for dividend yield and P/S Ratio. They have still increased their dividend this year by 12%, however, sales have fallen both in 2020 and are expected again to fall in 2021. With their latest dividend increase of 12%, the company obviously thinks that they will do fine in the end. They also have a very low dividend cost. I will go with the P/E Ratio and put the stock price as relatively expensive. There is nothing wrong with the rest of the tests. In CDN$ the P/B Ratio test shows that the stock price as reasonable but above the median. However, in US$ terms, the P/B Ratio is showing the stock price as relatively expensive. There is not usually much difference between testing in US$ or CDN$ terms.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that this company has done very well. It is a dividend growth stock, but the dividend is below 1%, so it is a better stock for people building a portfolio. It would seem that at the present time, the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (8). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $48.48 ($36.71 US$). This implies a total return of 7.87% based on a current stock price of $45.20. You have to wonder about the strong buy rating and only 7.87% total return over the next year.

There is not much coverage for this stock on Stock Chase but the last one says it is a partial sell because of E-Car adoption and changes coming with that. Demetris Afxentiou on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a great defensive stock. A Writer on Simply Wall Street says inferior analyst earnings forecast is not affecting P/E Ratio. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the intrinsic value for this stock is $63.59 CDN$. The Blogger Dividend Earner recently reviewed this stock.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc operates a network of convenience stores across North America, Ireland, Scandinavia, Poland, the Baltics, and Russia. The company primarily generates income through the sale of tobacco products, groceries, beverages, fresh food, quick service restaurants, car wash services, other retail products and services, road transportation fuel, stationary energy, marine fuel, and chemicals. In addition, the company operates more stores under the Circle K banner in other countries such as China, Egypt, and Malaysia. Its web site is here Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX-CHE.UN, OTC-CGIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Genworth MI Canada Inc (TSX-MIC, OTC- GMICF) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 26, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Enbridge Inc.... learn more on Tuesday, August 25, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.