Obsidian Energy Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap Resource Stock. From my stock price testing it looks like the current stock price runs from very cheap to reasonable. Any time a stock is very cheap, there is also lots of risk involved in holding the stock. On the other hand, there is lots of insider buying. See my spreadsheet on Obsidian Energy Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE) but I used to. I bought this stock as Maximum Energy Trust (MXT.UN) in 1998. In November 2001, there was a stock exchange and the stock became Ultimate Energy Fund. In June 2004 fund changed from Ultimate Energy Income Trust to Petrofund Energy. Petrofund Energy merged with Penn West in July 2006.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they had a new Chairman and also the other two directors I was following had also left. There is a lot of insider buying in the past year just as there was last year. In the past year Net Insider Buying was 0.26% of Market Cap and in the prior year it was 0.30%. You expect NIB to be around 0.01% to 0.02% of Market Cap.

I see a lot of red ink on my spreadsheets. This includes everything like Revenue, EPS, Cash Flow, Book Value, and stock value. This means that flows are lower or non-existent. They have also stopped their dividends. The last time a dividend was paid was in 2015. Analysts do not expect them to have earnings anytime soon, so there will not be any dividends anytime soon.

The Debt Ratio I do not like is the Liquidity Ratio. For 2017 it was 0.66. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Only if you include cash flow after dividends and current portion of long term debt does the ratio rise above 1.00 to a still low ratio of 1.32. So, to pay for current liabilities they must count on cash flow and rolling over of debt. This could be a problem in a recession.

The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good at 0.42. The Debt Ratio is very good at 3.57 with 5 year coverage at 2.56. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.39 and 0.39 for 2017. The 5 year ratios are also good at 1.68 and 0.68.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 22. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

As you can see from the chart below, investors have not made money recently and only made money in the past due to the dividends.

Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
5	0.00%	-27.42%	-31.78%	4.37%
10	0.00%	-20.51%	-27.77%	7.26%
15	0.00%	-2.40%	-15.07%	12.67%
20	0.00%	15.98%	-14.47%	30.45%
22	0.00%	8.91%	-13.25%	22.16%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are –0.66, -1.87 and -3.09. The corresponding 10 year ratios are -0.33, -0.78 and -1.81. The historical ratios are 6.14, 9.56 and 13.06. The only reasonable ones are the historical ratios. The current P/E Ratio is -5.04 based on a stock price of $1.36 and 2018 EPS estimate of -$0.27. You can not do any P/E Ratio testing with negative values.

I get a Graham Price of $5.89. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.46. 0.78 and 1.14. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.23 based on a stock price of $1.36. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is not a good test because of earning losses.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.74. The current P/B Ratio is 0.33 based on a stock price of $1.36, Book Value of $2,102M and Book Value per Share of $4.16. The current P/B Ratio is some 56% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. A stock is always considered cheap if it is selling below book value or a ratio below 1.00.

The problem with the book value is that it is sinking fast. The book value has declined by 25% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The decline is slowing as the book value per share only declined by 4% in 2017 and so far this year by 3%.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 10.27%. This yield is very high because the stock used to be an income trust company. However, until they cut the dividends, the yield was still quite high. I cannot do a stock price test because the company currently has no dividends.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.67. The current P/S Ratio is 1.62 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $425M, Revenue per Share of $0.84 and a stock price of $1.36. The current P/S Ratio is some 3% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (4), Hold (5) and Underperform (3). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $1.94. This implies a total return of 42.65% all from capital gains.

Yolanda Lovett on Simply Wall Street worry about some debt ratios. Troy Warner on MTL News Journal says this company has a Piotroski F-Score of 0.8 where a low score show a weak balance sheet. Matthew DiLallo on Motley Fool talks about this company selling some assets. See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase about this company. They are mostly negative about activist investors.

Obsidian Energy Ltd is an independent Canadian energy company focused on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas resources in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia. Its web site is here Obsidian Energy Ltd .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Dorel Industries Inc. (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 25, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Another Source of Income 4.... learn more on Tuesday, July 24, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Atlantic Power Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Utility Stock. This stock is probably relatively cheap. However, it is cheap for a reason and is of relatively high risk. On the other hand, insiders are buying and this might be a good sign that they expect the company to do better in the future. See my spreadsheet on Atlantic Power Corp.

I do not own this stock of Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT). Because I like utility companies and in 2010, I have read two columns that recommended this particular utility company (TSX-ATP), I decided to investigate it. After investigating this stock, my impression is that I would not touch it with a barge-pole. However, I will talk about it and upload my spreadsheet so that you can decide for yourself. This company has recently converted from an income trust to a corporation. This company was in the TSX Utility Index. (Perhaps this is why it is recommended?)

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that insiders are buying shares. The chairman significantly increased his holdings by just under1,500%. The value of his shares went from around $83,000 to $1.2M. the company has a negative book value and this is never good.

They were having trouble with earnings so they cut their dividend in 2016. Analyst do not expect any positive earnings over the next couple of years and also no dividends over this period. They cannot afford to pay dividends.

The Liquidity Ratio is low but this often occurs with utilities. They count on cash flow to properly cover current liabilities. However, with this company, even with cash flow the Liquidity Ratio is low. For 2017 the Liquidity Ratio was 1.27. with a 5 year median of also 1.27. The Liquidity Ratio with cash flow after dividends is still low at 1.44 with a 5 year median of 2.10. I prefer this ratio be 1.50 or higher.

The Debt Ratio at 1.20 for 2017 is low as is the 5 year median ratio at 1.34. I prefer these to be 1.50 or better also. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios cannot be calculated as the book value is negative.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 14. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

As you can see by the charts below, shareholders have not make much in the way of money on this company.

The following is CDN$ Statistics

Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
5	0.00%	-21.15%	-23.39%	2.24%
10	0.00%	-2.02%	-11.98%	9.96%
14	0.00%	3.25%	-8.26%	11.51%

The following is US$ Statistics

Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
5	0.00%	-25.11%	-27.12%	2.01%
10	0.00%	-3.80%	-13.97%	10.17%
14	0.00%	-1.51%	-11.46%	9.95%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are -2.70, -3.03 and -3.36. the corresponding 10 year ratios are -7.82, -8.91 and -10.67. The historical ones are -10.95, -1.89 and -15.90. The current P/E Ratio is -16.88 based on a stock price of $2.87 and 2018 EPS estimate of -$0.22 CDN$ (-$0.17 US$). You cannot do a P/E Ratio test with negative value.

I get a Graham Price of $2.12. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.85, 0.98 and 1.14. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.36 based on a stock price of $2.87 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 1.64 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is -72.32 based on Book Value of -$16.7M CDN$, Book Value per Share of -$0.15 and a stock price of $2.87 CDN$. You cannot do stock price testing with a negative Book Value.

I get an historical median dividend yield of $8.60 CDN$. There are currently no dividends being paid, so I cannot do any stock price testing with no dividends.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.96 CDN$ and 1.26 US$. The difference is cause by the currency exchange rates varying. Since this company reports on US$, I will use US$ in this test. The 10 year median closing P/S Ratio is 1.26. The current P/S Ratio is 0.77 based on 2018 Revenue of $317M US$, Revenue per Share of $2.81 US$, and a stock price of $2.15 US$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.

I think that the last test on P/S Ratio is the only really good test. It is the only test I can do properly. The Graham Price test is not good because of negative earnings, AFFO and book values.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Hold (2) and Underperform (2) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $4.19 CDN$ ($3.19 US$). This implies a total return of 46.02 and all in capital gains.

Marguerite Chambers on What’s on Thorold talks about institutional buying and selling of this stock. Matt Smith of Motley Fool has a rather negative view of this company. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Analysts seem negative about this company also.

Atlantic Power Corp is an independent electric power producer company that owns and operates a diverse fleet of power generation assets in the United States and Canada. Its web site is here Atlantic Power Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Obsidian Energy Ltd TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE) ... learn more on Monday, July 23, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Artis REIT

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: . My stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. I would worry about their debt vulnerability. See my spreadsheet on Artis REIT.

I do not own this stock of Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF). Early in 2013, this company was mentioned as a good REIT to own. A number of people I correspond with mentioned this REIT. However, my first view of it is not positive. It is also not a dividend growth stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the Liquidity Ratio is very low. For 2017 it is 0.21. If this ratio is not 1.00 or above, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. It only gets to be a good ratio 1.85 when you exclude from current liabilities their current debt. They are having no trouble currently rollover their debt, but things can change in a recession. This is a vulnerability.

There has been really no growth in dividends. There was a 40% increase in the second year of dividends which was 2006. In 2008 and 2009 there were increases that were less than 2% and then nothing. On the other hand, the dividends or distributions yield is high. The current yield is 8.27%. The 5, 10 and historical median distribution yields are 7.82%, 8.28% and 7.82%.

Since this is a Real Estate Investment Trust you generally look at Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) to decide if the company can afford their distributions. The FFO Dividend Payout Ratio is good with the one for 2017 at 75.5% and 5 year coverage at 74.0%.

Their long term debt is increasing. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2017 was 0.56 but Long Term Debt has gone up since then another 32% and currently this ratio is 0.76. The ratio is still fine but it is climbing. I discussed my concerns with their Liquidity Ratios above. Their Debt Ratio at 2.00 and 5 year median at 1.97 are good ratios. For a utility the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 2.00 and 1.00 for 2017 and 5 year median at 2.14 and 1.14.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 13. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

For those who bought this stock at the beginning, they have done well. However, lately the total returns are low.

Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
5	0.00%	5.13%	-2.05%	7.18%
10	0.28%	6.69%	-0.66%	7.35%
13	3.13%	18.92%	6.59%	12.33%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.40, 11.35 and 12.30. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 3.85, 4.30 and 4.75. The historical ratios are -2.01, -3.10 and -3.59. the problem is that the company has had so many years of earnings losses. The current P/E Ratio is 10.53 based on a stock price of $13.06 and 2018 EPS estimate of $1.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

For REITs Price/FFO Ratio test is probably a better one. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/FFO Ratios are 8.48, 9.27 and 10.59. The 10 year corresponding Ratios are 8.73, 9.80 and 11.06. The current P/FFO Ratio is 9.47 based on a stock price of $13.06 and 2018 FFO estimate of $1.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of $20.81. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.61, 0.69 and 0.76. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $13.06. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 0.89. The current P/B Ratio is 0.84 based on Book Value of $2,386M, Book Value per Share of $15.52 and a stock price of $13.06. The current P/B Ratio is some 5% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.27%. The historical median dividend yield is 7.82% based on dividends of $1.08 and a stock price of $13.06. The current yield is some 5.8% above the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.77. The current P/S Ratio is 3.84 based on Revenue estimate for 2018 of $523M, Revenue per Share of $3.40 and a stock price of $13.06. The current P/S Ratio is some 1.9% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but a bit above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy (1), Hold (9) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $13.88. This implies a total return of 14.55% with 8.28% from capital gains and 8.27% from distributions.

Haris Anwar of Motley Fool thinks Artis REIT is a high yielding and low risk REIT. Jacqueline McKee on Hillary HQ talks about a big fall in short selling interest for this company. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Analysts talk about its heavy exposure to Alberta and about the fact that they are increasing their US exposure.

Artis Real Estate Investment Trust is a closed-end REIT based in Canada. The company's portfolio comprises of properties primarily divided into office retail and industrial in Central and Western Canada and select markets throughout the United States. Its web site is here Artis REIT.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT) ... learn more on Friday, July 20, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Another Source of Income 3.... learn more on Thursday, July 19, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

TMX Group Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. I think that the stock price tests that count are the P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, and the Dividend yield. Two of these shows that the stock is expensive and one shows it is above the median. Also, the low Liquidity Ratio gives it a vulnerability. See my spreadsheet on TMX Group Ltd.

I do not own this stock of TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF). I looked at this stock in 2008 after I found it on a list of Strongest Dividend Growth stocks. I am interested in such stocks. However, this has not turned out not to be a strong dividend growth stock after all.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that insiders have few if any shares even though they have stock options and rights. For example, both the CEO and Chairman have hold no shares. The Net Insider Selling is at 0.06%. This is high, but it seems that insiders are not taking up their options in shares.

The dividend yield is moderate with the current dividend at 2.70%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 3.04%, 3.44% and 3.18% respectively. While there was some very high dividend growth in the beginning, between 2008 and 2013 inclusive there were no dividend increases.

As you can see from the chart below there has not been much dividend growth lately. However, the last increase was in 2018 and it was for 16%. For 2017 there was also a good dividend increase for 11%. Analysts expect the company to also raise dividends in 2019, but at a lower rate of 4.3%.

Currently they can afford their dividends. For 2017 the Dividend Payout Ratio was 30% with 5 year coverage at 63%. However, in 2016 DPR was 46% with 5 year coverage at 107%. Analysts expect that the company will have lower earnings next year and have a DPR of around 45%. The problem is that their earnings have been all over the place. In such a situation the 5 year coverage is the most important figure.

The debt ratio that I do not like is the Liquidity Ratio. This is an important ratio because it looks at the coverage of current liabilities by current assets. The problem with a very low one is that in bad times a company can get into serious trouble with a low Liquidity Ratio. The Liquidity Ratio for 2017 is 0.97. That means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends it only rises to 0.98. If you take off current debt it becomes just 1.02.

This means that the company is dependent on cash flows and being able to roll over current debt to pay for current liabilities. This makes this stock quite vulnerable. This is especially true because a lot of economists think that the next recession will hit companies that are vulnerable because of debt.

The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.14 and this is a good ratio. The Debt Ratio rather low at 1.14 but financials tend to have low Debt Ratios. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2017 are high at 8.05 and 7.05 but here again financials tend to have rather high ratios.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 15. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Depending on when this stock has been bought, it would seem shareholders can get a good Total Return. The Total Return has been inconsistent and has most items for this stock.

Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
5	4.04%	9.69%	6.79%	2.90%
10	2.52%	5.62%	2.92%	2.69%
15	13.05%	21.42%	13.42%	7.99%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.09, 15.18 and 20.27. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.09, 15.12 and 20.68. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.35. 21.41 and 25.02. The current P/E Ratio is 17.44 based on a stock price of $85.98 and 2018 EPS estimate of $4.93. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $81.02. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.97, 1.19 and 1.31. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.06 based on a stock price of $85.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 1.45 based on Book Value of $3,285M, Book Value per Share of $59.18 and a stock price of $85.98. A problem here is that the book value has only gained some 1.9% per year over the past 5 years and this is very low and not a good development. The current P/B Ratio is some 27% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.18%. The current dividend yield is 2.70% based on dividends of $2.32 and a stock price of $85.98. The current dividend yield is 15% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.52. The current P/S Ratio is 5.83 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $818M, Revenue per Share of $14.74 and a stock price of $85.98. The current ratio is some 29% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy (3) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $87.00. This implies a total return of 3.88% with 1.19% from capital gains and 2.70% from dividends. This implied total return suggests that the stock price is relatively high.

You can see trading statistics for June 2018 for this group on News Wire. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks that now may not be a good time to buy the stock as it has hit an all-time high. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Most analysts, except one, things that the stock is undervalued. There is one analyst that believes stock price is excessive.

TMX Group Ltd is engaged in the financial services domain. The company operates cash and derivatives markets for equities and fixed income. Most of its revenue is in the form of trading and clearing fees. Its web site is here TMX Group Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 18, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Another Source of Income 2.... learn more on Tuesday, July 17, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Inter Pipeline Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. In testing the stock price, it is coming up relatively reasonable and below the median. So, this is a relatively good price. See my spreadsheet on Inter Pipeline Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF). In 2008, a friend had asked me about this pipeline and I had no information on it, so I investigated it. It is a utility and I follow lots of utility stocks. They used to be a Limited Partnership and they changed to a corporation in 2013.

What I noticed on the spreadsheet was their very low Liquidity Ratio. The one for 2017 was 0.16. when this ratio is less than 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liability. Even including cash flow after to dividends you only get to 0.37. To get above 1.00 you have to add back in the current portion of the long term debt and you get 1.62. If they cannot roll over debt they will have problems.

Whether or not this will happen is anyone guess. It may not be likely, but it is a vulnerability. It is a continuing problem. The 5 and 10 year median Liquidity Ratio are about the same at 0.15.

They started to pay dividends in 1996 and have increased them every year but for three years. They have increase the dividend every year for the past 8 years. The dividend yields have been quite high and with a low dividend growth until recently.

The current dividend yield is 6.64%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 5.28%, 6.00% and 8.70%. The dividends have grown by 9.13% per year over the past 5 years. Before that the dividend growth was below 7% per year. The last dividend increase was this year and it was for 3.7%.

They cannot afford their dividends in testing it the normal way against EPS. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is 115% with 5 year coverage at 148%. The DPR Ratio for CFPS for 2017 was 62% with 5 year coverage at 38%. It is preferable that dividends that this ratio be 40% for less.

On the other hand, this stock has a dividend reinvestment plan, so that they do not pay all the dividends in cash but pay a portion with new shares. In 2017 they paid out 57% of Net Income in Dividends with 5 year coverage at 85%. The dividend reinvestment plan also causes a constant increase in the number of shares outstanding.

As pointed out above, I do not like the Liquidity Ratios on this stock, but the other debt ratios are fair to good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is at 0.40. The Debt Ratio for 2017 is 1.50 with a 5 year median at 1.50 also. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.99 and 1.99 respectively for 2017. The 5 year median ratios are 3.29 and 2.29 respectively.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 20. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Until recently, the Total Return for shareholders was quite nice. The 5 year Total Return is 7.8% per year, just under the 8% I like to see.

Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
5	9.13%	7.83%	2.07%	5.76%
10	6.82%	18.32%	10.62%	7.70%
15	5.98%	18.84%	10.04%	8.80%
20	4.01%	10.73%	4.90%	5.84%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.85, 18.72 and 22.78. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.90, 17.86 and 20.50. The corresponding historical P/E Ratios are 15.13, 18.51 and 21.08. The current P/E Ratio is 16.75 based on a stock price of $25.29 and 2018 EPS estimate of $1.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $17.81. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.55 and 1.82. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $25.29. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 2.98. The current P/B Ratio is 2.71 based on a stock price of $25.29 and Book Value of $3,576M and Book Value per Share of $9.33. The current P/B Ratio is some 9% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.70%. The 5 and 10 year median yields are lower at 5.28% and 6.00%. The current dividend yield is 6.64% based on dividends of $1.68 and a stock price of $25.29. The current dividend is some 24% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

This company used to be a Limited Partnership prior to 2013. As a Limited Partnership, dividend yields would have been high. If we compare the current yield of 6.64% to the 10 year median of 6.00%, the current yield is 10% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.59. the current P/S Ratio is 4.07 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $2382M, Revenue per Share of $6.22 and a stock price of $25.29. The current P/S Ratio is some 11% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (6), Hold (6) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price $28.93. This implies a total return of 21.04% with 14.39% from capital gains and 6.64% from Dividends.

Gemma Cottrell on Fairfield Current talks about recent analysts recommendations. Matt Smith on Motley Fool says that buying this stock will give you a juicy dividend while you wait for the stock price to recover. Michael Z. Yu has a positive report on this stock on Seeking Alpha. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase .

Inter Pipeline Ltd is a petroleum transportation, storage and natural gas liquids extraction company based in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. It owns and operates a diversified combination of energy infrastructure assets in western Canada and Europe. Its web site is here Inter Pipeline Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Morneau Shepell Inc. (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF) ... learn more on Monday July 16, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Morneau Shepell Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. I think that this stock is relatively expensive currently. It may not be the best time to buy this stock at this price. See my spreadsheet on Morneau Shepell Inc.

I do not own this stock of Morneau Shepell Inc. (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF). Every once in a while, I go through the stocks that my brokerage, TD Waterhouse, is recommending to find promising new stocks. In February 2013 this stock was rated a buy by TD Waterhouse. It was under Diversified Financials.

This company used to be an income trust and this explains the lack of any dividend increases. They will probably do this once the Dividend Payout Ratio is lower. Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow have been rising over the past couple of years.

The dividend yield used to be high because this was an income trust. It has been falling since a peak in 2010 and is currently at a moderate rate of 2.87%. The 5, 10 and historical yields are much higher at 4.87%, 6.10% and 6.59%.

Currently they cannot afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 was 126% with 5 year coverage at 181%. The DPR for CFPS for 2017 is much better at 37% with 5 year coverage at 43%. They have kept their dividends flat since 2013. Analyst do not believe that the dividend is in any danger of being cut. They also think that they will cover the dividends with earnings this year.

Generally speaking, the debt ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is low at 0.15. The Liquidity Ratio and Debt Ratios are both good at 1.67 and 1.80 respectively. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.24 and 1.24 respectively. These are fine.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 13. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

There has not been much movement on the dividend growth side, but Total Return has been fine. Expect the dividend part of the Total Return to decline because this company is no longer an income trust.

Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
5	0.00%	16.93%	11.92%	5.01%
10	-0.62%	9.16%	4.29%	4.87%
13	-0.52%	11.93%	6.36%	5.56%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 29.68, 34.66 and 41.45. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 27.73, 32.94 and 36.07. The historical ones are 27.59, 31.22 and 34.25. These are all very high. The current P/E Ratio is 28.30 based on a current stock price of $27.50 and 2018 EPS estimate of $0.96. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relative reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $11.87. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.52, 1.67 and 2.03. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.32 based on a stock price of $27.50. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 1.84. The current P/B Ratio is 4.22 based on Book Value of $362M, Book Value per Share of $6.52 and a stock price of $27.50. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an adjusted historical median dividend yield of 5.44%. The current dividend yield is 2.84% based on dividends of $0.78 and a stock price of $27.50. The current yield is some 48% below the adjusted historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expansive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.41. The current P/S Ratio is 2.27 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $674M, Revenue per Share of $12.12 and a stock price of $27.50. The current P/S Ratio is some 60% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expansive.

The main reason that the Graham Price is so low is that the Book Value per Share is going down. A falling Book Value Per Share is not good. In this case it is falling because the profit for the year cannot cover the dividends paid. The falling book value is also the reason the stock is showing as expensive in the P/B Ratio Test. Both the P/GP Ratio and P/B Ratio tests show this stock as expensive and with good reason.

The P/E Ratios on this stock are quite high. However, they have always been quite high from when this stock went on the TSX in 2005. So, I wonder about the validity of this stock price test. Under the P/S Ratio test, this stock is also showing as expensive. The stock price is rising faster than the Revenue. This is the reason that the stock passes the P/E Ratio test and not the P/S Ratio test.

On one hand, the stock price shows where the market is thinking this stock will go and most tests I do show current values and where analysts think the stock will be in the current year. However, I am inclined to think that the stock price is getting into the expensive range. The market does tend to under and over price things.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy (4) and Hold (2). The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $26.38. This implies a loss of 1.20% with a capital loss of $4.07% and dividends at 2.87%.

A staff member on Benefits Canada talk about this company’s acquisition of LifeWorks Corp Ltd. Ricardo Landis on Simply Wall Street says the company is selling at a fair valuation. Caroline Biscotti on Brookville Times says the Q.I Value of this stock is 32 which points to it being neither under or overvalued when undervalued is 1 and overvalued is 100. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. This like this company and feel it is well-managed.

Morneau Shepell Inc and its subsidiaries provides health and productivity, administrative and retirement solutions to assist employers in managing the financial security, health, and productivity of their employees. Its web site is here Morneau Shepell Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC- EMLAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF) ... learn more on Friday, July 13, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Another Source of Income.... learn more on Thursday, July 12, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Empire Company Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. On my most tests except for the dividend yield test, this stock is showing as pricey and it probably is a bit pricey. A stock tends to rise when people believe in the turnaround, not when it actually happens. So, if the company stumbles a bit in the turnaround, it might present a good buying opportunity. See my spreadsheet on Empire Company Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF). I have known about this stock for some time before I decided to follow it. This stock has a financial year ending in end of April or first of May each year.

What I noticed on the spreadsheet was that EPS is down from where it was 5 and 10 years ago. There is also a decline in the Adjusted EPS over the past 5 and 8 years. For this company they have growing revenue, but the earnings are not growing in line with that growing revenue.

The dividend yield is low and the dividend growth is low to moderate. The dividend yield is currently at 1.67%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 1.56%, 1.56% and 1.45%. The dividend growth is shown in the table below. Dividend growth has gone up and down over the years and it has been mostly low lately. The last dividend increase occurred in 2018 and it was for 4.8%.

The Dividend Payout Ratio has gone up and down over the years, but mostly it has been quite low. The DPR for 2018 at 71.2% is probably the highest it has ever been. A lot of analysts expect this to improve in 2019 financial year and decrease to under 30%.

The Liquidity Ratio is low and has always been low. The one for 2018 financial year is just 0.84 with a 5 year median of 0.92. If the ratio is under 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends you get a low ratio of 1.10. If you also add back in current portion of long term debt it is only 1.34. I prefer a value of 1.50 or higher.

Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good at just 0.17. The Debt Ratio is also good at 1.77 with 5 year median at 1.77also. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are typical at 2.34 and 1.32 respectively.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 32. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

This company has been having problems lately, so the recent total return is low. Over the long term, this company had done well for its shareholders. If you hold stocks for the long term, there is going to be up and down periods. It is not possible for a company to stable over the long term. However, it should produce good results over the long term. I want the total return long term to be 8% or more.

Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
5	5.59%	6.30%	4.50%	1.78%
10	6.68%	7.33%	5.55%	1.80%
15	9.34%	8.03%	6.27%	1.76%
20	12.42%	12.10%	10.02%	2.09%
25	11.13%	13.30%	11.13%	2.16%
30	10.11%	10.80%	9.15%	1.65%
32	9.95%	12.04%	10.15%	1.89%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 22.20, 25.30 and 28.41. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 12.56, 14.57 and 17.08. The historical ones are 10.13, 12.10 and 13.63. The current P/E Ratio is 16.85 based on a $26.29 and 2019 EPS estimate of $1.56. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

A current problem with the stock market is that the average P/E Ratios are relatively high historically. The median P/E Ratios for the last 5 years are certainly high for this stock. Another problem is that for individual stocks the P/E Ratio testing may not be the best test. For this stock the EPS dropped over the past two years, but the stock price did not drop in line with the EPS drop. This results in high P/E Ratios.

I get a Graham Price of $21.87. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.89 and 1.04. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 1.20. The current P/B Ratio is 1.93 based on Book Value of $3703M, Book Value of $13.63 and a stock price of $26.29. The current P/E Ratio is some 60% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.45%. The current dividend yield is 1.67 based on a stock price of $26.29 and Dividends of $0.44. The current yield is 15% higher than the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.24. The current P/S Ratio is 0.29 based on 2019 Revenue of 24,507M, Revenue per Share of $90.20 and a stock price of $26.29. The current P/S Ratio is some 19.6% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. If the difference were 20%, the stock price would be considered relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy (6) and Hold (5). The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $29.20. This implies a total return of 12.74% with 1.67% from dividends and 11.07% from capital gains.

On most tests this stock is coming up as relatively expensive. The time to buy it cheap has passed. It had really good prices in 2016 into 2017. Between the end of 2016 and 2017 the stock price is up some 56% and another 7% this year. It is not overly pricey, but it certainly is not a good deal at the moment.

Will Ashworth on Motley Fool says Empire has done well lately but wonders if it can keep it up. The Canadian Press with The Chronicle Herald says the CEO is proud of what the company has accomplished and raised the dividend. The People Space column of Real Estate News Exchange talk about recent management change at this company. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They talk about the company being turned around and that it is well managed.

Empire Company Ltd is engaged in food retailing and real estate business. It is engaged in the food products retailing business through various store formats, including full service stores, discount service stores, among others. Its web site is here Empire Company Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Morneau Shepell Inc. (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 11, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about My Stock Reviews 2018.... learn more on Tuesday, July10, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Suncor Energy Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Resource. On most measures, this stock is show as relatively expensive. Analysts seem all over the place when it comes to recommendations. The stock price is certainly at a 5 year high. See my spreadsheet on Suncor Energy Inc.

I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU. PCA and SU merged in 2009.

What I noticed on the spreadsheet was that dividend growth has been quite good for a number of year as growth has been over 15% per year. See Dividend Growth (Div. Gth.) in the chart below. The other thing is the low Liquidity Ratios. The company will depend on cash flows to adequately cover current liabilities.

The dividend yield has been low to moderate with moderate yields starting in 2009. This is when PCA and Suncor merged. The current yield is 2.67% with 5, 10 and historical yields at 3.09%, 1.89% and 0.64%. As mentioned above dividend growth has been good.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 was 48% with 5 year coverage at 89%. The DPR for CFPS is 23% with 5 year coverage at 20%. Both these ratios are good so they can cover their dividends. Analysts estimates over the next 3 years show they expect this positive coverage to continue.

The Liquidity Ratio for 2017 is low at 1.00 as is the 5 year median at 1.39. The Liquidity Ratio for the first quarter at 0.89 is below 1.00 and means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. The company relies on cash cover to properly cover current liabilities.

The Debt Ratio at 2.03 is good as is the 5 year median also at 2.03. I like this ratio to be 1.50 or above. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.97 and 0.97 with 5 year median ratios at 1.96 and 0.96. For these ratios any ratios below 2.00 and 1.00 are good.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 22. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

As you can see from the chart below, this company has done quite well for its shareholders over most time periods I have covered. The longer term of some 20 and 22 years is quite good.

Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
5	20.68%	9.93%	7.13%	2.80%
10	22.92%	2.55%	0.97%	1.58%
15	22.30%	7.49%	6.06%	1.44%
20	18.83%	9.15%	7.86%	1.29%
21-22	19.34%	10.99%	9.63%	1.36%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.63, 15.44 and 17.25. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.10, 15.58 and 19.01. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.57, 23.89 and 29.58. It is interesting that over the longest term we have the highest ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 18.58 based on a stock price of $53.88 and 2018 EPS Ratio of $2.90. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price maybe relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $42.62. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 0.97 and 1.18. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.26 based on a stock price of $53.88. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, on an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of 1.26 is not that high.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 1.94 based on a stock price of $53.88, Book Value of $45,483M, Book Value of $27.84. The current ratio is some 43% higher than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.64%. The current dividend yield is 2.67% based on dividends of $1.44 and a stock price of $53.88. This is some 317% above the historical median yield. The 5 and 10 year dividend yield median are 3.09% and 1.89%. The current yield is some 41% above the 10 year yield and some 13% below the 5 year median yield. By this measure the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.42. The current P/S Ratio is 2.25 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $39,106M, Revenue per Share of $23.94 and a stock price of $53.88. the current ratio is some 38% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (14), Hold (6) and Underperform (1) recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $57.04. This implies a total return of 8.54% with 5.86% from capital gains and 2.67% from dividends.

Chris MacDonald on Motley Fool says that Suncor gives you commodity exposure without commodity price valuation. Geoffrey Morgan on the Financial Post says that Syncrude woes are hatting Suncor hard. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Analysts are mostly positive on this stock.

Suncor Energy Inc is a Canadian integrated energy company. It operations include oil sands development and upgrading, offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, product marketing and a renewable energy portfolio. Its web site is here Suncor Energy Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC- EMLAF) ... learn more on Monday, July 9, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Premium Brands Holdings Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. This would seem to be a good company, but I think that currently it is relatively expensive. See my spreadsheet on Premium Brands Holdings Corp .

I do not own this stock of Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF). I was looking for another stock to follow and I found this is one of the top stocks in TD Bank's Canadian Equity Fund.

When I was updating the spreadsheet, I noticed that long term debt has increased by 170% and that that the 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio was high at 250%. However, the Debt/Market Cap Ratio is low at 0.13 and the current DPR is under 100%. Also, shareholders have had great returns on the stock, especially lately.

This stock used to be an income trust so the past dividend yield was high. Until 2009 when it changed to a corporation its median dividend yield was 11.25%. It travelled south ever since and hit a low of 1.50% in 2017. The current dividend yield is 1.68%. However, the 5, 10 and historical ones are much higher at 5.14%, 6.39% and 7.49%.

The dividend growth is going in the opposite direction of the dividend yield. It has been increasing since 2013. This is reflected in the chart below with 12 years growth at just 2.81% per year and 5 years at 6.88% per year. The last dividend increase was much higher at 13.1% in 2018.

Currently they can afford their dividends as the Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 was 61%. However, this ratio has been quite high in the past and the 5 year coverage ratio is 104%. The DPR for CFPS is currently fine as it is below 40% at 39%. However, this ratio has also been much higher in the past and has a 5 year coverage at 45%.

Even through the long term debt has been increasing, the Debt/Market Cap Ratio is fine at 0.13. The Liquidity Ratio has always been fine and for 2017 it is 1.74 with 5 year median at 2.00. The Debt Ratio is also good at 1.95 with 5 year ratio at 2.05. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are rather typical for this type of company and for 2017 they were at 2.93 and 1.50 respectively. The 5 year median ratios were also at 2.93 and 1.50 respectively.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 22. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Shareholders have done well with this stock even on a long term basis. The stock price has shot up and the 5 year total return is very high at 47%.

Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
5	6.88%	47.47%	43.17%	4.30%
10	3.38%	26.65%	22.19%	4.45%
12-15	2.81%	21.00%	17.03%	3.96%
20		9.78%	8.35%	1.43%
22		15.74%	13.80%	1.94%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 28.73, 33.58 and 40.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 21.60, 23.65 and 27.87. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.35, 15.00 and 16.26. The current P/E Ratio is 26.65 based on a stock price of $113.28 and 2018 EPS estimate of $4.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

To me the most reasonable series for P/E Ratios is the historical ones. The 5 and 10 year ratios are too high for a consumer sector company. Also, I have to wonder about the EPS estimate for 2018. EPS was lower in the first quarter of 2018 and in 2017.

I get a Graham Price of $40.19. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.58 and 1.75. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.82 based on a stock price of $113.28. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 1.94. The current P/B Ratio is 6.71 based on a Book Value of $520M, Book Value per Share of $16.89 and a stock price of $113.28. The current P/B Ratio is some 245% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.29%. The current dividend yield is 1.68% based on dividends of $1.90 and a stock price of $113.28. The current yield is some 78% above this historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, since this used to an income trust this would not be a good test for this stock.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.41. The current P/S Ratio is 1.16 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $3,010M, Revenue per Share of $97.73 and a stock price of $113.28. the current P/S Ratio is some 184% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (6) and Hold (2) recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $133.22. This implies a total return of 19.28% with 16.70% from capital gains and 1.68% from dividends based on a stock price of $113.28.

Joseph Solitro on Motley Fool talks about why this company’s stock price is rising. They had a very good year in 2017. John Heinzl at the Globe and Mail also likes this stock. Tremont Staff on Tremont Herald say that the Value Composite One (VC1) of this stock is 60 where close to 0 is for undervalued stocks and close to 100 I for overvalued stocks. See what analysts think of this stock on Stock Chase. Most like this company and many suggest that it is expensive.

Premium Brands Holdings Corp owns a specialty food manufacturing and differentiated food distribution businesses with operations in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nevada, Ohio, Arizona, and Washington State. Its web site is here Premium Brands Holdings Corp .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU) ... learn more on Friday, July 6, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy July 2018.... learn more on Thursday, July 5, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Intact Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. The current price on a number of measures seems reasonable. It would appear to be a solid conservative stock for investment. See my spreadsheet on Intact Financial Corp.

I do not own this stock of Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF). I am following this stock because in November 2011, the TD Bank put out a special report on the merits of dividend investing. At the end of the report they listed a number of Canadian stocks as Equity Yield ideas. This was one stock listed that I did not follow.

The spreadsheet shows this stock growing nicely and providing a good return to the shareholders. This is a 200 year old company but most recently it was owned by the ING Group and they made it independent and listed it on the stock market in 2009. Also note that there is a big difference between General and Life Insurance companies. This is a General Insurance company.

The dividend yield is moderate as it’s the dividend growth. The current, 5 year, 10 year and historical dividend yields are 3%, 2.56%, 2.71% and 2.65%. The dividend growth over the past 5, 10 and 12 years is at 9.86%, 9.01% and 12.10% per year.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings is good at 44.5% in 2017 with 5 year coverage at 44.9%. The DPR for CFPS is higher in 2017 that I like at 53.7%. However, the 5 year median DPR is good at 35.3% and it is the longer term value that counts the most.

Long Term Debt has been rising lately, but the Debt/Market Cap Ratio is just 0.15 which is a low value. I calculate the Liquidity Ratio to be 1.57 in 2017 with 5 year median at 1.94. Note everyone calculates a Liquidity Ratio for financial firms. The Debt Ratio is 1.36 which is a bit low for still fine for a financial firm.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 13. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Since this company went public on the TSX in 2009, it has provided a nice return for its shareholders. Note that General Insurance companies tend to be volatile which Life Insurances companies do not.

Years	Div. Gth.	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
5	9.86%	12.84%	10.14%	2.69%
10	9.01%	13.04%	10.24%	2.80%
13	12.10%	13.11%	10.31%	2.80%

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.00, 17.43 and 18.87. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.96, 17.31 and 18.66. The historical ratios are 12.41, 13.68 and 14.95. The current P/E Ratio is 17.36 based on a stock price of $93.25 and 2018 EPS estimate of $5.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of $75.61. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.11, 1.29 and 1.39. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.23 based on a stock price of $93.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 1.85. The current P/B Ratio is 1.97 based on Book Value of $6,587M, Book Value per Share of $47.32 and a stock price of $93.25. The current P/B Ratio is some 6.6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.65%. The current dividend yield is 3.00% based on dividends of $2.80 and a stock price of $93.25. The current dividend yield is some 13.3% above the historical one. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.45. The current P/S Ratio is 1.33 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $9,733M, Revenue per Share of $69.32 and a stock price of $93.25. The current ratio is some 7.8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (8), Hold (5) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $109.57. This implies a total return of 20.50% with 17.50% from capital gain and 3.00% from dividends.

Erna Eldridge on Simply Wall Street and gives it an intrinsic value of $93.83 in June of 2018. The president of this company on Canadian Underwriter talks about User Based Insurance. Kay Ng of Motley Fool thinks this stock is suitable for conservative investors.. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. A number of analysts like this stock.

Intact Financial Corp is a property and casualty insurance company operating in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and Nova Scotia. It distributes insurance under the Intact Insurance brand through a network of brokers. Its web site is here Intact Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. (TSX-AGT, OTC-AGXXF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 4, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks July 2018.... learn more on Tuesday, July 3, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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