Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably expensive. Some test show stock price expensive and some reasonable but above the median. It is probably not a good time to buy. See my spreadsheet on EnerCare Inc.
I do not own this stock of EnerCare Inc. (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF). I started to follow this stock in 2009 when it was an income trust. This was one of a few income trusts that I followed because it was recommended by MPL communications.
One thing I noticed when I updated my spreadsheet for the second quarterly report is that accrued liabilities increased dramatically and as a result the Liquidity Ratio is just 0.90 for the second quarter. If this ratio is below 1.00 it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Accounts payable and accrued liabilities were $66,536 and 73,961 for the first quarter to $159,037 in the second quarter.
The dividends are good and the increases are on the low side. The current dividend yield is 4.88% and the 5 year median is 7.35%. The growth in dividends over the past 5 and 10 years is 5.3% and a decline of 2.9% per year. This stock used to be an income trust. That is the reason for the past high dividend yield rates and the decline in dividends over the past 10 years. Dividends are paid monthly.
At the time that Income Trust companies were forced to become corporations it was felt that with the combination of dividend cuts and stock price increases that most of these companies would end up paying a dividend of around 4 to 5%. It dropped the dividend by 50% when it changed to a corporation. The dividend yield has just recently moved to the 4 to 5% yield. They have again started to raise dividends, but they have been a bit inconsistent.
I would think that it is back to being a dividend growth stock. This is also probably why the stock price has been going up recently.
Their Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is still much too high but they seem to be moving it down. The DPR for CFPS is fine. The DPR for EPS was 150% in 2015. The last two years have seen large increases and the DPR for EPS is expected to be around 180% in 2016 before it moves south again. The DPR for CFPS was 39% in 2015 and the 5 year median is 37%.
A number of analysts are still looking at Distributable Income in the form of Funds from Operations (FFO). Since 2010 it has been in the range of 75% to 95% which is good. It is expected to be higher 107% in 2015 as analysts seem to expect a drop in FFO in 2016 of some 30%. For the 12 month period ending at the second quarter compared to the 12 month period to the end of 2015, FFO has dropped some 17%. So analysts thinking it will be lower in 2016 are probably correct.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 27.94, 36.97 and 46.00. The 10 years values are also high but not quite as bad at 25.64, 33.14 and 42.63. The historical values are 28.63, 35.71 and 42.87. They are high because this stock used to be an income trust and FFO counted more than EPS. The current P/E Ratio is 38.67 based on a stock price of $18.95 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.49. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 9.15m 10.32 and 11.49. The corresponding 10 year values are 8.12, 9.40 and 11.28. The current P/FFO Ratio is 15.75 based on 2016 FFO estimate of $0.82 and a stock price of $18.95. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $8.00. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.87, 2.18 and 2.72. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.37 based on a stock price of $18.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.03. The current P/B Ratio is 3.26 a value some 7.8% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $18.95 and BVPS of $5.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.02. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.55 based on a stock price of $18.95 and 2016 CFPS estimate of $1.64. The current P/CF Ratio is some 130% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $19.90. This implies a total return of $9.895 with 5.01% from capital gains and 4.83% from dividends.
Renee Jackson on The Cerbat Gem talk about some analysts increasing their 12 month stock price target for this company. This company put out a Market Wired Press Release about acquiring a Service Experts firm. See what analysts are saying about this company at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC, OTC-none)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be BlackBerry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY)... learn more on Friday, August 19, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about FFO, AFFO.. learn more on Thursday, August 18, 2016 around 10 am.
EnerCare Inc. owns a portfolio of waterheaters and other portfolio assets, which they rent to primarily residential customers. They rent out waterheaters in the GTA and southern Ontario. EnerCare also owns EnerCare Connections Inc., a leading sub-metering company, with metering contracts for condominium and apartment suites in Ontario, Alberta and elsewhere in Canada. Its web site is here EnerCare Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Monday, August 15, 2016
Newfoundland Capital Corp
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is cheap. There is not much in analysts' coverage. It is not a dividend growth stock but dividends have risen over time. Dividends have been inconsistent. See my spreadsheet on Newfoundland Capital Corp.
I do not own this stock of Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC.A, OTC-none). I started to follow this stock as it was suggested as a decent dividend paying stock for investment purposes in the latter part of 2009. It is not on any dividend lists that I follow so I took a look at it.
This is not a dividend growth stock. Their dividends are inconsistent. They have increased, decreased and suspended dividends at various times. Currently they have not changed the dividend since 2012 but announced a big increase for 2016 of some 33%. When they have increased the dividends the increases have been quite high.
The dividend has been paid semi-annually with a first dividend at $0.09 and a second dividend of $0.06. The problem with this is most site that you look at assume dividends are the same and so show a rise in dividends at the beginning of the year and decrease in dividends at the end. Since they now say they will be paying $0.10 semi-annually, this problem should now go away.
You can make money on this stock. The total return to the end of 2015 was at 11.51% and 8.79% per year over the past 5 and 10 years with 9.78% and 7.18% from capital gains and 1.74% and 1.62% per year from dividends. This stock's price is down by just over 16% this year, so the 5 and 10 year total return to dated is 4.69% and 6.49% per year with 2.91% and 4.72% per year from capital gains and 1.78% and 1.77% per year from dividends.
When looking at growth on this stock I would want to look at Revenue, Net Income and Cash Flow rather than per share values. This is because the outstanding shares have been declining over the past 5 and 10 years by 3.3% and 2.4% per year. For example, the Revenue has grown by 7% and 7.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share has grown at 10.7% and 9.7% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.19, 12.69 and 14.81. The 10 year corresponding values are a bit higher at 11.56, 14.25 and 16.54. The historical values are even higher at 15.01, 15.91 and 21.30. The current P/E Ratio is 11.50 based on a stock price of $9.20 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.80. I wonder if there is too low as the second quarterly report shows an increase in EPS of 22% and $0.80 EPS is just lower than last year. In any event this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
If we use the EPS for the past 12 months to the end of the second quarter, the P/E Ratio is very good at just 9.29. This is low against the historical ratios and P/E Ratios below 10.00 suggests a cheap stock.
I get a Graham Price of $10.22. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.07, 1.24 and 1.41. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.90 based on a stock price $9.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.03. The current P/B Ratio is 1.59 a value some 22% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $5.80 and a stock price of $9.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.52%. The current dividend yield is 2.17% based on Dividends of $.20 and a stock price of $9.20. Note this includes the most recently dividend increase. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
There does not seem to be any analyst currently following this stock.
There is a recent press release from this company on News Wire about the recent dividend increase. In January 2015 Michael Cloherty wrote an article in the G&M about twenty wealth-creating stocks you may be overlooking. This stock was number 6. This was a number cruncher article, so any stocks found in such a search need to be vetted.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will EnerCare Inc. (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 17, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Job Creation... learn more on Tuesday, August 16, 2016 around 5 pm.
Newfoundland Capital Corporation Limited also owns and operates Newcap Radio. Newcap Radio is one of Canada's leading radio broadcasters with 79 licenses across Canada. The Company reaches millions of listeners each week through a variety of formats and is a recognized industry leader in radio programming, sales and networking. Its web site is here Newfoundland Capital Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC.A, OTC-none). I started to follow this stock as it was suggested as a decent dividend paying stock for investment purposes in the latter part of 2009. It is not on any dividend lists that I follow so I took a look at it.
This is not a dividend growth stock. Their dividends are inconsistent. They have increased, decreased and suspended dividends at various times. Currently they have not changed the dividend since 2012 but announced a big increase for 2016 of some 33%. When they have increased the dividends the increases have been quite high.
The dividend has been paid semi-annually with a first dividend at $0.09 and a second dividend of $0.06. The problem with this is most site that you look at assume dividends are the same and so show a rise in dividends at the beginning of the year and decrease in dividends at the end. Since they now say they will be paying $0.10 semi-annually, this problem should now go away.
You can make money on this stock. The total return to the end of 2015 was at 11.51% and 8.79% per year over the past 5 and 10 years with 9.78% and 7.18% from capital gains and 1.74% and 1.62% per year from dividends. This stock's price is down by just over 16% this year, so the 5 and 10 year total return to dated is 4.69% and 6.49% per year with 2.91% and 4.72% per year from capital gains and 1.78% and 1.77% per year from dividends.
When looking at growth on this stock I would want to look at Revenue, Net Income and Cash Flow rather than per share values. This is because the outstanding shares have been declining over the past 5 and 10 years by 3.3% and 2.4% per year. For example, the Revenue has grown by 7% and 7.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share has grown at 10.7% and 9.7% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.19, 12.69 and 14.81. The 10 year corresponding values are a bit higher at 11.56, 14.25 and 16.54. The historical values are even higher at 15.01, 15.91 and 21.30. The current P/E Ratio is 11.50 based on a stock price of $9.20 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.80. I wonder if there is too low as the second quarterly report shows an increase in EPS of 22% and $0.80 EPS is just lower than last year. In any event this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
If we use the EPS for the past 12 months to the end of the second quarter, the P/E Ratio is very good at just 9.29. This is low against the historical ratios and P/E Ratios below 10.00 suggests a cheap stock.
I get a Graham Price of $10.22. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.07, 1.24 and 1.41. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.90 based on a stock price $9.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.03. The current P/B Ratio is 1.59 a value some 22% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $5.80 and a stock price of $9.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.52%. The current dividend yield is 2.17% based on Dividends of $.20 and a stock price of $9.20. Note this includes the most recently dividend increase. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
There does not seem to be any analyst currently following this stock.
There is a recent press release from this company on News Wire about the recent dividend increase. In January 2015 Michael Cloherty wrote an article in the G&M about twenty wealth-creating stocks you may be overlooking. This stock was number 6. This was a number cruncher article, so any stocks found in such a search need to be vetted.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will EnerCare Inc. (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 17, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Job Creation... learn more on Tuesday, August 16, 2016 around 5 pm.
Newfoundland Capital Corporation Limited also owns and operates Newcap Radio. Newcap Radio is one of Canada's leading radio broadcasters with 79 licenses across Canada. The Company reaches millions of listeners each week through a variety of formats and is a recognized industry leader in radio programming, sales and networking. Its web site is here Newfoundland Capital Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, August 12, 2016
Loblaw Companies Ltd.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably relatively expensive. On a number of tests this stock is showing that it is relatively expensive. See my spreadsheet on Loblaw Companies Ltd.
I do not own this stock of Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) but I used to. I have followed this stock for some time. I got the stock from Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth companies. I owned it from 1996 to 2007. It was originally a great stock. I sold it in 2007 because it was having problems with its tech upgrade to its supply system and it did not seem that it would be fixed anytime soon.
Because of problems, Loblaw's kept their dividends flat between 2005 and 2011. Since then they have been raising the dividends again. The last dividend raise was in 2016 and it was for 4%. The 5 and 10 years dividend growth is low at 3.4% and 1.7% over the past 5 and 10 years. This is due to the number of years with flat dividends. They seem to be back to a dividend growth company.
Dividends are rather low with the current dividend being at 1.43% based on dividends of $1.04 and a stock price of $72.82. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.08% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.20%.
I had this stock from October 1996 to April 2007. I made a total return of 10.14% per year with 8.23% per year from capital gains and 1.91% per year from dividends. If I had kept my stock I would have made 7.43% per year in capital gains and probably some 1.76% in dividends for a total return of 9.19% per year. So if I had kept it I would not have done badly. This is the thing with dividend stocks, you tend to do ok in the long term.
The outstanding shares have increased by 7.9% and 4.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, DRIP and Stock Options and shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. To me this it means I should be look at per share values. It does make a difference. For example the Revenue growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 7.9% and 5.1% per year. The Revenue per Share growth is just 0.08% and 0.90%.
This is not full story because the growth in Revenue has recently improved. If you look at 5 year running averages, Revenue has grown at 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages for Revenue per Share, growth is at 0.23% and 2.07% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. See my blog for more information on 5 Year Running Averages calculations.
When I look at 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios I find them at 17.95, 20.38 and 22.81. The corresponding 10 year values are lower at 13.75, 18.36 and 16.06. The historical values are closer to the 5 year ones at 16.64, 18.75 and 20.52. The current P/E Ratio is 24.85 based on a stock price of $72.82 and 2016 EPS of $2.93. This testing does suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I do wonder about the EPS estimate for 2016. We have the second quarterly report and EPS is only up around 4% if you compare the 12 month period ending at the end of last year and ending at the end of the second quarter. If you strictly look at EPS of this second quarter and last year's second quarter, EPS is up by 7.6%. Analysts say that they expect it to rise by some 94%. Also, last year analysts expected 2015 earnings of $2.67 and they came in at $1.51.
I get a Graham Price of $45.01. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.05, 1.18 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.62 based on a stock price of $72.82. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.37 based on a BVPS of $30.73 and a stock price of $72.82. The current P/B Ratio is some 36% above the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.20%. The current dividend yield at 1.43% is some 19% higher. This would suggest that on an historical basis the stock price is relatively cheap. My records go back some 26 years to 1990.
However, if you look at the median dividend yield over the past 5 years, it is higher at 2.08% and the current rate of 1.43% is some 31% lower. The 10 year median dividend yield is even higher at 2.12% and this is some 33% higher than the current dividend yield.
This testing could suggest that the stock has been relatively lower in the past 5 and 10 years that it has been historically. However, what has happened is that you have higher dividend yields because the company has been paying out a larger proportion of earnings in the past 10 years than historically. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS in 1995 was 20%. The 5 year DPR for EPS in 2015 was 52%. The historical median DPR is 20.8%. So yield has been climbing at the expense of a higher payout ratio.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $79.23. This implies a total return of 10.23% with 1.43% from dividends and 8.80% from capital gains. This is based on a current stock price of $72.82.
Hollie Shaw recently wrote in the Financial Post that Loblaw's cutting prices in top-tier stores is starting to pay off. Cameron Conway on Seeking Alpha does an interesting analysis of this company. Doug Wharley on Aug 1, 2016 on the Cerba Gem talks about analysts raising estimates for this company.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC, OTC-none)... learn more on Monday, August 15, 2016 around 5 pm.
Loblaw Companies Limited, a subsidiary of George Weston Limited, is Canada's largest food retailer and a leading provider of drugstore, general merchandise and financial products and services. Loblaw offers Canada's strongest control (private) label program, including the unique President's Choice, no name and Joe Fresh brands. In addition, the Company makes available to consumers President's Choice financial services and offers the PC point loyalty program. Its web site is here Loblaw Companies Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) but I used to. I have followed this stock for some time. I got the stock from Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth companies. I owned it from 1996 to 2007. It was originally a great stock. I sold it in 2007 because it was having problems with its tech upgrade to its supply system and it did not seem that it would be fixed anytime soon.
Because of problems, Loblaw's kept their dividends flat between 2005 and 2011. Since then they have been raising the dividends again. The last dividend raise was in 2016 and it was for 4%. The 5 and 10 years dividend growth is low at 3.4% and 1.7% over the past 5 and 10 years. This is due to the number of years with flat dividends. They seem to be back to a dividend growth company.
Dividends are rather low with the current dividend being at 1.43% based on dividends of $1.04 and a stock price of $72.82. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.08% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.20%.
I had this stock from October 1996 to April 2007. I made a total return of 10.14% per year with 8.23% per year from capital gains and 1.91% per year from dividends. If I had kept my stock I would have made 7.43% per year in capital gains and probably some 1.76% in dividends for a total return of 9.19% per year. So if I had kept it I would not have done badly. This is the thing with dividend stocks, you tend to do ok in the long term.
The outstanding shares have increased by 7.9% and 4.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, DRIP and Stock Options and shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. To me this it means I should be look at per share values. It does make a difference. For example the Revenue growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 7.9% and 5.1% per year. The Revenue per Share growth is just 0.08% and 0.90%.
This is not full story because the growth in Revenue has recently improved. If you look at 5 year running averages, Revenue has grown at 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages for Revenue per Share, growth is at 0.23% and 2.07% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. See my blog for more information on 5 Year Running Averages calculations.
When I look at 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios I find them at 17.95, 20.38 and 22.81. The corresponding 10 year values are lower at 13.75, 18.36 and 16.06. The historical values are closer to the 5 year ones at 16.64, 18.75 and 20.52. The current P/E Ratio is 24.85 based on a stock price of $72.82 and 2016 EPS of $2.93. This testing does suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I do wonder about the EPS estimate for 2016. We have the second quarterly report and EPS is only up around 4% if you compare the 12 month period ending at the end of last year and ending at the end of the second quarter. If you strictly look at EPS of this second quarter and last year's second quarter, EPS is up by 7.6%. Analysts say that they expect it to rise by some 94%. Also, last year analysts expected 2015 earnings of $2.67 and they came in at $1.51.
I get a Graham Price of $45.01. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.05, 1.18 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.62 based on a stock price of $72.82. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.37 based on a BVPS of $30.73 and a stock price of $72.82. The current P/B Ratio is some 36% above the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.20%. The current dividend yield at 1.43% is some 19% higher. This would suggest that on an historical basis the stock price is relatively cheap. My records go back some 26 years to 1990.
However, if you look at the median dividend yield over the past 5 years, it is higher at 2.08% and the current rate of 1.43% is some 31% lower. The 10 year median dividend yield is even higher at 2.12% and this is some 33% higher than the current dividend yield.
This testing could suggest that the stock has been relatively lower in the past 5 and 10 years that it has been historically. However, what has happened is that you have higher dividend yields because the company has been paying out a larger proportion of earnings in the past 10 years than historically. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS in 1995 was 20%. The 5 year DPR for EPS in 2015 was 52%. The historical median DPR is 20.8%. So yield has been climbing at the expense of a higher payout ratio.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $79.23. This implies a total return of 10.23% with 1.43% from dividends and 8.80% from capital gains. This is based on a current stock price of $72.82.
Hollie Shaw recently wrote in the Financial Post that Loblaw's cutting prices in top-tier stores is starting to pay off. Cameron Conway on Seeking Alpha does an interesting analysis of this company. Doug Wharley on Aug 1, 2016 on the Cerba Gem talks about analysts raising estimates for this company.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC, OTC-none)... learn more on Monday, August 15, 2016 around 5 pm.
Loblaw Companies Limited, a subsidiary of George Weston Limited, is Canada's largest food retailer and a leading provider of drugstore, general merchandise and financial products and services. Loblaw offers Canada's strongest control (private) label program, including the unique President's Choice, no name and Joe Fresh brands. In addition, the Company makes available to consumers President's Choice financial services and offers the PC point loyalty program. Its web site is here Loblaw Companies Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
DirectCash Payments Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably reasonable, but risky. I must admit I am not enamored with this company. They support Payday Loan companies which I do not like. I think that you need more than just cash flow and revenue. Call me old fashioned, but I do like to invest in companies that can make a profit. See my spreadsheet on DirectCash Payments Inc.
This company has been suited because they enabled The Cash Store Financial Services to charge more on loans that than is lawful. Since the lawful interest rate is 60% per year as I understand it, I would not want to invest in a company than charges such rates.
I do not own this stock of DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF). I wanted to review stocks touted in the 2009 Money Show. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trusts being currently good buys with very good yield. This is one stock that was recommended.
I would not buy this stock. Some of its larger customers in the Prepaid Card business are involved in the payday loan business. I do not like payday loan companies. I do not want to make money off the backs of the poor. The company does not seem to make money directly from Payday loans. Maybe I am overly sensitive about this subject, but there are lots of companies to invest in for dividends besides this one.
There are two things to worry about this company right off the bat. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.99 and the Intangible and Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is 1.20. When either of these ratios get close to 1.00 it is time to worry. If the long term debt is the same as the market cap it could be a sign that the company is in financial difficulties. Often when the Intangible and Goodwill assets is at 1.00 or better it is a sign that the company probably should be doing write-offs.
I might as well talk about other things I do not like. The Liquidity Ratio is below 1.00 at just 0.85. This means that current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. You can muck around with this figure and add in cash flow after dividends whereby here it gets to 1.28. Having to find ways of getting a good ratio is not in itself good. Also, 1.28 is not a good ratio as it needs to be at least 1.50 for safety's sake. Also, the Book Value per Share is declining by 7.3% and 4.6% over the past 5 and 10 years.
They started to pay dividends 10 years ago. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at .09% and 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The problem is that there were no dividend increases from 2007 to 2013 inclusive. They did increases in 2014 and 2015. The dividend yield is very high and is currently at 10.97% based on dividends of $1.44 and a stock price of $13.34.
Another problem is that they cannot afford their dividends because of lack of EPS. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is 300%. The 5 year averages is 405%. I prefer companies that have good DPR for EPS, not just for CFPS.
The one possibly positive thing about this company as written in Seeking Alpha below is the company's ability to generate cash flow. Cash Flow has grown at 18% and 16.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 12.6% and 12.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. In 2015, the CFPS covered the dividends with a Dividend Payout Ratio of 34%. Also, the Current Liability Coverage Ratio (or coverage by CF) has been over 1.00 over the past 3 years and for 2015 was 1.16.
However, the company is not so good at EPS. EPS dropped in 2012 and have not recovered. There was an earnings loss in 2015 and losses are expected to continue into 2016 and 2017.
You cannot check the status of the stock price using Price/Earnings per Share Ratios because of very low earnings in 2013 and negative earnings for 2015 and possible negative earnings for 2016 and 2017.
That best I can do for a Graham Price is one of $4.10. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.18, 2.46 and 2.85. These are very high because of the very high P/GP Ratios for 2013 where ratios were in the 20's and 30's. For example, the closing P/GP Ratio was 25.15. For this ratio a good stock price is when the ratio is 1.00 or below, so 25.15 is unbelievable high. The 10 year Ratios are also quite high. However, the current P/GP Ratios is even higher at 3.25 based on a stock price of $13.34. This all suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share is 2.81. The current P/B Ratio is 3.75 a value some 33% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $62.40 and a stock price of $13.34. This suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Part of the problem with this testing is that BVPS is dropping.
The 10 year median dividend yield is 7.75%. There is not historical yield as dividends have only been paid for 10 years. The current dividend is 10.79% based on dividends of $1.44 and a stock price of $13.34. The current dividend yield is some 39% higher than the median value. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, note that the 10 year high dividend yield is over 20% and we are nowhere near that presently. Also, when dividend yield gets so high, it is usually a sign that the market expects dividends to be cut.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus is a Buy, but there are only 3 analysts following this stock. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.83. This implies a total return of 21.96% with 10.79% from dividends and 11.17% from capital gain.
Lee Farnam in December 2015 wrote an interest review of this stock on Seeking Alpha. What he liked was the ability of this company to generate cash flow. The company announced results for the first 3 months of 2016 on Market Wired. They have reached agreement to settle all class action lawsuits filed against the Company relating to the Cash Store Financial Services Inc. This is part of the reason for the earnings loss of 2015. See what analysts say about this stock at Stock Chase . Some worry that the dividends are not sustainable.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF)... learn more on Friday, August 12, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about 5 Year Running Averages... learn more on Thursday, August 11, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Language Animal by Charles Taylor learn more...
DirectCash is the leading provider of ATMs, debit terminals, prepaid phone cards and prepaid cash cards in Canada. They have built a substantial technological, sales and service infrastructure that enables them to offer convenient and secure revenue streams for businesses across the country. DirectCash operates in Canada, the United States and Mexico. Its web site is here DirectCash Payments Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This company has been suited because they enabled The Cash Store Financial Services to charge more on loans that than is lawful. Since the lawful interest rate is 60% per year as I understand it, I would not want to invest in a company than charges such rates.
I do not own this stock of DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF). I wanted to review stocks touted in the 2009 Money Show. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trusts being currently good buys with very good yield. This is one stock that was recommended.
I would not buy this stock. Some of its larger customers in the Prepaid Card business are involved in the payday loan business. I do not like payday loan companies. I do not want to make money off the backs of the poor. The company does not seem to make money directly from Payday loans. Maybe I am overly sensitive about this subject, but there are lots of companies to invest in for dividends besides this one.
There are two things to worry about this company right off the bat. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.99 and the Intangible and Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is 1.20. When either of these ratios get close to 1.00 it is time to worry. If the long term debt is the same as the market cap it could be a sign that the company is in financial difficulties. Often when the Intangible and Goodwill assets is at 1.00 or better it is a sign that the company probably should be doing write-offs.
I might as well talk about other things I do not like. The Liquidity Ratio is below 1.00 at just 0.85. This means that current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. You can muck around with this figure and add in cash flow after dividends whereby here it gets to 1.28. Having to find ways of getting a good ratio is not in itself good. Also, 1.28 is not a good ratio as it needs to be at least 1.50 for safety's sake. Also, the Book Value per Share is declining by 7.3% and 4.6% over the past 5 and 10 years.
They started to pay dividends 10 years ago. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at .09% and 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The problem is that there were no dividend increases from 2007 to 2013 inclusive. They did increases in 2014 and 2015. The dividend yield is very high and is currently at 10.97% based on dividends of $1.44 and a stock price of $13.34.
Another problem is that they cannot afford their dividends because of lack of EPS. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is 300%. The 5 year averages is 405%. I prefer companies that have good DPR for EPS, not just for CFPS.
The one possibly positive thing about this company as written in Seeking Alpha below is the company's ability to generate cash flow. Cash Flow has grown at 18% and 16.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 12.6% and 12.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. In 2015, the CFPS covered the dividends with a Dividend Payout Ratio of 34%. Also, the Current Liability Coverage Ratio (or coverage by CF) has been over 1.00 over the past 3 years and for 2015 was 1.16.
However, the company is not so good at EPS. EPS dropped in 2012 and have not recovered. There was an earnings loss in 2015 and losses are expected to continue into 2016 and 2017.
You cannot check the status of the stock price using Price/Earnings per Share Ratios because of very low earnings in 2013 and negative earnings for 2015 and possible negative earnings for 2016 and 2017.
That best I can do for a Graham Price is one of $4.10. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.18, 2.46 and 2.85. These are very high because of the very high P/GP Ratios for 2013 where ratios were in the 20's and 30's. For example, the closing P/GP Ratio was 25.15. For this ratio a good stock price is when the ratio is 1.00 or below, so 25.15 is unbelievable high. The 10 year Ratios are also quite high. However, the current P/GP Ratios is even higher at 3.25 based on a stock price of $13.34. This all suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share is 2.81. The current P/B Ratio is 3.75 a value some 33% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $62.40 and a stock price of $13.34. This suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Part of the problem with this testing is that BVPS is dropping.
The 10 year median dividend yield is 7.75%. There is not historical yield as dividends have only been paid for 10 years. The current dividend is 10.79% based on dividends of $1.44 and a stock price of $13.34. The current dividend yield is some 39% higher than the median value. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, note that the 10 year high dividend yield is over 20% and we are nowhere near that presently. Also, when dividend yield gets so high, it is usually a sign that the market expects dividends to be cut.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus is a Buy, but there are only 3 analysts following this stock. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.83. This implies a total return of 21.96% with 10.79% from dividends and 11.17% from capital gain.
Lee Farnam in December 2015 wrote an interest review of this stock on Seeking Alpha. What he liked was the ability of this company to generate cash flow. The company announced results for the first 3 months of 2016 on Market Wired. They have reached agreement to settle all class action lawsuits filed against the Company relating to the Cash Store Financial Services Inc. This is part of the reason for the earnings loss of 2015. See what analysts say about this stock at Stock Chase . Some worry that the dividends are not sustainable.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF)... learn more on Friday, August 12, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about 5 Year Running Averages... learn more on Thursday, August 11, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Language Animal by Charles Taylor learn more...
DirectCash is the leading provider of ATMs, debit terminals, prepaid phone cards and prepaid cash cards in Canada. They have built a substantial technological, sales and service infrastructure that enables them to offer convenient and secure revenue streams for businesses across the country. DirectCash operates in Canada, the United States and Mexico. Its web site is here DirectCash Payments Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, August 8, 2016
Ballard Power Systems Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Expensive and risky? Personally, I would not buy this stock. I am following it as I am interested to see how things turn out for this company and fuel cells. See my spreadsheet on Ballard Power Systems Inc.
I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP), but I used to. Back in 1997, I read about Ballard and fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. I sold this stock in 2006 because it had lost its attraction. It did not seem that Ballard fuel cells would be in any car anytime soon. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and never recovered.
Will this stock ever again come close to what I paid for it? I paid $17.35 a share in 1997. I sold in 2006 at $10.82 a share. I lost 5.3% per year or a loss of almost 38%. If I still had this stock I would have lost just over 85% of my purchase value or 9.5% per year.
Analysts are right that cite that the company has good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.90 and the Debt Ratio is 3.24. For this any ratios at or over 1.50 is good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.45 and 0.45. For these ratios anything below 2.00 and 1.00 respectively are good ratios.
However, the outstanding shares have been increasing especially in the past 5 years with growth in shares at 13.35 and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. So for this stock you have to look at per share values.
For example, Revenue per share is down by 14.2% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, but Revenue is only down by 2.8% and is up by 0.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. On the other hand if you look at 5 year running average for Revenue per Share the decline is only 1.7% per year over the past 5 years and Revenue is up by 1.3% per year over the past 5 years using 5 year running averages. The above is in US$ as this company reports in US$.
There is little to value this stock by. They cannot make a profit, the book value is declining and they have no cash flow or dividends. If you look at Revenue in US$ the current P/S Ratio is 3.76 a value some 22.7% above the 10 year median P/S Ratio of 3.06. The current P/S Ratio is based on Revenue estimate for 2016 of $83.4M US$ and Revenue per Share at $0.53. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
You get into the expensive range when the current ratio is 20% or above the 10 year median ratio. So it is not that relatively expensive. On the other hand for some companies a P/S Ratio of 1.00 or below is showing a good stock price. Their P/S Ratio is well above 1.00.
The only other possible valuation is using the Graham Price. For 2018 analysts expect earnings to be $0.01. This would imply a Graham Price of $0.50 CDN$. The current price is $2.63 CDN$. This would give us a Price/Graham Price Ratio of 5.31. A ratio of 5.31 is quite a high P/GP Ratio and implies that the stock price is expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, there are 3 of Buy and Hold. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months consensus stock price is $3.10 CDN$ ($2.38 US$). This implies a total return of 18%.
Karen Thomas wrote a positive article in April at Motley Fool. Unfortunately, I have heard this all before. Travis Hoium in August at Motley Fool talks about the stock jumping 54% in July because they signed a deal. This has also happened many times in the past. James Elliot at Microcap Daily also says positive things about this stock. I am still not biting.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 10, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend growth (again) learn more on Tuesday, August 9, 2016 around 5 pm.
Ballard Power Systems, Inc. is a global leader in PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cell technology. They provide clean energy fuel cell products enabling optimized power systems for a range of applications. Ballard offers smarter solutions for a clean energy future. Its web site is here Ballard Power Systems Inc .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP), but I used to. Back in 1997, I read about Ballard and fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. I sold this stock in 2006 because it had lost its attraction. It did not seem that Ballard fuel cells would be in any car anytime soon. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and never recovered.
Will this stock ever again come close to what I paid for it? I paid $17.35 a share in 1997. I sold in 2006 at $10.82 a share. I lost 5.3% per year or a loss of almost 38%. If I still had this stock I would have lost just over 85% of my purchase value or 9.5% per year.
Analysts are right that cite that the company has good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.90 and the Debt Ratio is 3.24. For this any ratios at or over 1.50 is good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.45 and 0.45. For these ratios anything below 2.00 and 1.00 respectively are good ratios.
However, the outstanding shares have been increasing especially in the past 5 years with growth in shares at 13.35 and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. So for this stock you have to look at per share values.
For example, Revenue per share is down by 14.2% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, but Revenue is only down by 2.8% and is up by 0.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. On the other hand if you look at 5 year running average for Revenue per Share the decline is only 1.7% per year over the past 5 years and Revenue is up by 1.3% per year over the past 5 years using 5 year running averages. The above is in US$ as this company reports in US$.
There is little to value this stock by. They cannot make a profit, the book value is declining and they have no cash flow or dividends. If you look at Revenue in US$ the current P/S Ratio is 3.76 a value some 22.7% above the 10 year median P/S Ratio of 3.06. The current P/S Ratio is based on Revenue estimate for 2016 of $83.4M US$ and Revenue per Share at $0.53. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
You get into the expensive range when the current ratio is 20% or above the 10 year median ratio. So it is not that relatively expensive. On the other hand for some companies a P/S Ratio of 1.00 or below is showing a good stock price. Their P/S Ratio is well above 1.00.
The only other possible valuation is using the Graham Price. For 2018 analysts expect earnings to be $0.01. This would imply a Graham Price of $0.50 CDN$. The current price is $2.63 CDN$. This would give us a Price/Graham Price Ratio of 5.31. A ratio of 5.31 is quite a high P/GP Ratio and implies that the stock price is expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, there are 3 of Buy and Hold. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months consensus stock price is $3.10 CDN$ ($2.38 US$). This implies a total return of 18%.
Karen Thomas wrote a positive article in April at Motley Fool. Unfortunately, I have heard this all before. Travis Hoium in August at Motley Fool talks about the stock jumping 54% in July because they signed a deal. This has also happened many times in the past. James Elliot at Microcap Daily also says positive things about this stock. I am still not biting.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 10, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend growth (again) learn more on Tuesday, August 9, 2016 around 5 pm.
Ballard Power Systems, Inc. is a global leader in PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cell technology. They provide clean energy fuel cell products enabling optimized power systems for a range of applications. Ballard offers smarter solutions for a clean energy future. Its web site is here Ballard Power Systems Inc .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, August 5, 2016
Savaria Corporation
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Relatively expensive. There is nothing wrong with this stock, but I think that the stock price is too high to consider buying at this time. I would rate it a Hold. I do not sell good companies just because the price is expensive. The price would have to get into a stupid range for me to sell. See my spreadsheet on Savaria Corporation.
I do not own this stock of Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF). I got this stock off the Dividend Blogger site that no longer exists. I am always interested in dividend growth small cap stock. The first few years of accounting were rather confusing, but I think I figured them out in the end. They also do not publish financial statements on their site.
Dividends are moderate to good with moderate to good dividend increases. The current dividend is 2.33%. They started dividend in 2005 and the median dividend yield since then is 4.08% and the 5 year median is at 3.07%. The 5 and 10 year dividend increase is at 15.1% and 21.1% per year.
The current Dividend Payout Ratios are a little high for this sort of company at 60.7% for EPS in 2015. They have gotten too high in the past with DPRs over 100% in 2011, 2012 and 2014. They are expected to be around 60% again on 2016 before falling to around 47% in 2017 and 42% in 2018. The DPR for CFPS is better with a ratio of 39% in 2015 and a 5 year median of 49%.
Outstanding shares have increased a lot in the past 5 year with 8.2% increase per year over this time period. The 10 year increase is a lot lower at just 1%, but this is because the company did a big buy back in 2009. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, Stock Options and Share Conversion. The shares have decreased due to buy backs. So for me, per share growth is more important especially over the past 5 years.
They are nicely growing their earnings and cash flow, but not so much their revenue. EPS is up by 21% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 13% and 14.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However Revenue per Share is up by only 0.3% over the past 5 years. The 10 year increase is better at 8.3% per year growth.
This stock has recently had a good run up in price. The total return over the past 5 year is 49.26% per year with 43.36% from capital gain and dividend of 5.90%. The 10 year total return is still good, but a lot less at 18.59% per year with 15.70% per year from capital gains and 2.88% per year from dividends.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.44, 17.17 and 19.89. The 10 year corresponding values are 10.91, 15.40 and 19.40. The15 year values are 13.04, 17.17 and 20.38. It is interesting that the 5 year run up in stock prices seems to be the results of higher P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 26.06 based on a stock price of $8.60 and 2016 EPS of $0.33. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham price of 3.51. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.17 and 1.42. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.45 based on a stock price of $8.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.85. The current P/B ratio is 5.19 a value some 180% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $1.66 and a stock price of $8.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median dividend yield is 4.08% a value some 43% higher than the current dividend yield of 2.33% based on a stock price of $8.60 and dividends $0.20. The current dividend yield is even some 37% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield of 3.70%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $8.88. This implies a total return of 5.58% with 3.26% from capital gains and 2.33% from dividends based on a stock price $8.60.
Harley Jackson write in Consumer Eagle that analysts expect EPS to be $0.09 for the second quarter. In this press release via Market Wired Savaria says it has completed its Acquisition of the Automotive Division of Shoppers Home Health Care. Dan Stringer on Seeking Alpha in April 2016 wrote a good report on this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP)... learn more on Monday, August 8, 2016 around 5 pm.
Savaria Corporation is North America's leader in the accessibility industry focused on meeting the needs of people with mobility challenges. Savaria designs, manufactures, installs and distributes primarily elevators for home and commercial use, as well as stairlifts and vertical and inclined platform lifts. In addition, it converts and adapts minivans to be wheelchair accessible. Its web site is here Savaria Corporation.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF). I got this stock off the Dividend Blogger site that no longer exists. I am always interested in dividend growth small cap stock. The first few years of accounting were rather confusing, but I think I figured them out in the end. They also do not publish financial statements on their site.
Dividends are moderate to good with moderate to good dividend increases. The current dividend is 2.33%. They started dividend in 2005 and the median dividend yield since then is 4.08% and the 5 year median is at 3.07%. The 5 and 10 year dividend increase is at 15.1% and 21.1% per year.
The current Dividend Payout Ratios are a little high for this sort of company at 60.7% for EPS in 2015. They have gotten too high in the past with DPRs over 100% in 2011, 2012 and 2014. They are expected to be around 60% again on 2016 before falling to around 47% in 2017 and 42% in 2018. The DPR for CFPS is better with a ratio of 39% in 2015 and a 5 year median of 49%.
Outstanding shares have increased a lot in the past 5 year with 8.2% increase per year over this time period. The 10 year increase is a lot lower at just 1%, but this is because the company did a big buy back in 2009. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, Stock Options and Share Conversion. The shares have decreased due to buy backs. So for me, per share growth is more important especially over the past 5 years.
They are nicely growing their earnings and cash flow, but not so much their revenue. EPS is up by 21% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 13% and 14.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However Revenue per Share is up by only 0.3% over the past 5 years. The 10 year increase is better at 8.3% per year growth.
This stock has recently had a good run up in price. The total return over the past 5 year is 49.26% per year with 43.36% from capital gain and dividend of 5.90%. The 10 year total return is still good, but a lot less at 18.59% per year with 15.70% per year from capital gains and 2.88% per year from dividends.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.44, 17.17 and 19.89. The 10 year corresponding values are 10.91, 15.40 and 19.40. The15 year values are 13.04, 17.17 and 20.38. It is interesting that the 5 year run up in stock prices seems to be the results of higher P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 26.06 based on a stock price of $8.60 and 2016 EPS of $0.33. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham price of 3.51. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.17 and 1.42. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.45 based on a stock price of $8.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.85. The current P/B ratio is 5.19 a value some 180% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $1.66 and a stock price of $8.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median dividend yield is 4.08% a value some 43% higher than the current dividend yield of 2.33% based on a stock price of $8.60 and dividends $0.20. The current dividend yield is even some 37% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield of 3.70%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $8.88. This implies a total return of 5.58% with 3.26% from capital gains and 2.33% from dividends based on a stock price $8.60.
Harley Jackson write in Consumer Eagle that analysts expect EPS to be $0.09 for the second quarter. In this press release via Market Wired Savaria says it has completed its Acquisition of the Automotive Division of Shoppers Home Health Care. Dan Stringer on Seeking Alpha in April 2016 wrote a good report on this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP)... learn more on Monday, August 8, 2016 around 5 pm.
Savaria Corporation is North America's leader in the accessibility industry focused on meeting the needs of people with mobility challenges. Savaria designs, manufactures, installs and distributes primarily elevators for home and commercial use, as well as stairlifts and vertical and inclined platform lifts. In addition, it converts and adapts minivans to be wheelchair accessible. Its web site is here Savaria Corporation.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
TECSYS Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price seems a little high. Tech stocks often have rather high valuations, but this current price seems a little too high. It might be wise to get a pullback in price closer to $5.00 to pick stock up at a good price. See my spreadsheet on TECSYS Inc.
I own this stock of TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF). I came across this stock when I was looking for a dividend paying small cap stock as a filler stock. I consider a filler stock to be one to soak up small amounts of investment money that I have left over in my account, especially in the TFSA after I have made my main purchase for the year.
The first thing I noticed in that there is a lot of insider selling. Usually insider selling is relatively small to the company's market cap (like around 0.02%). In this case it is 1.94%. It is a rather small company but market cap is still $141M. Even David Brereton, the founder and chairman sold stock over the past year. He went from owner 27.3% of the company to 23.6%. In fact David Brereton has been selling off stock over the last few years. In 2013 he owned 30.8% of the outstanding share, in 2014 he owned 27.9% and in 2015 he owned 27.3% as per above.
Also both the CEO and CFO sold stock last year. The trouble with people selling is that you never know why. They could just need the money. This is not the first time that the chairman and the CEO have sold stock. Both are of the Brereton family.
They started to pay dividends in 2008. Dividend yield is low and growth is moderate. The current dividend yield is 1.04% based on dividends $0.12 per year and a stock price of $11.50. The 5 year median dividend yield is also low at 1.57%. The 8 year median dividend is higher at 2.53%. The dividends have grown at 12.7% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. The last dividend increase to occur was in 2016 and it was a 10% increase in dividends.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 26% in 2015. The 5 year median is higher at 67%. The DPR for EPS for 2017 is expected to be around 30%. (This company has a reporting date in April each year, so the last annual report was for April 2016 and we are now in the 2017 financial year.)
Outstanding shares have gone down by 1% and up by 1% over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and Stock Options and decreased due to Buy Backs. The stock option plan has been cancelled. There has been good growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow.
Revenue is up by 13.6% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 27% per year over the past 5 years. I do not have EPS per year over the past 10 years as EPS was negative 10 years ago. However, total EPS is up by 425% over the past 10 years. Cash Flow is up by 30.5% over the past 5 years. Total Cash Flow is up by 998% over the past 10 years. Cash Flow was also negative 10 years ago.
The 5 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 21.69, 29.912 and 38.13. The corresponding 10 year values are lower at 15.00, 19.15 and 23.46. The historical values are even lower at 8.69, 11.51 and 14.33. The problem is that Tech companies tend to have rather high valuation, especially once they get going. The current P/E Ratio is 30.26 based on a stock price of $11.50 and 2017 EPS of $0.38. This P/E would seem a little high and also above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $4.37. The 10 year median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.94, 1.19 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.63 based on a stock price of $11.50. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 1.51. The current P/B Ratio is 5.16 based on BVPS of $2.23 and a stock price of $11.50. The current P/B Ratio is some 242% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high. The problem is that stock price (36% over 5 years) has been increasing much quicker than Book Value (9.2% over 5 years).
The current dividend yield is 1.04% based on dividends of $0.12 and a stock price of $11.50. The historical dividend yield is 2.53% a value some 58% higher. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I only find one and it is a Buy Recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $12.30. This implies a total return of 8% with 6.965 from capital gains and 1.04% from dividends.
This is an article by Dean Beeby of the Canadian Press published in the Toronto Star. TECSYS's project for LCBO was more expensive and a year late. They quoted the fact that they could not use TECSYS's system out of the box and also changes to the original specs. I worked in IT. First it should have been known at the beginning that the system would not be used as is. Secondly, you can never ever bring projects in on time and on budget when there are changes to the specifications. Changes to the specifications should never be allowed. If really necessary, they should be done later.
Jared Coughlin at Community Financial News about a report from research analysts at Cormark on TECSYS.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Pulse Seismic Inc. (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF)... learn more on Friday, August 5, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy August 2016... learn more on Thursday, August 4, 2016 around 5 pm.
TECSYS Inc. is a supply chain management software provider that delivers powerful enterprise distribution, warehouse and transportation logistics software solutions. The company's customers include about 600 mid-size and Fortune 1000 corporations in healthcare, heavy equipment, third-party logistics, and general wholesale high- volume distribution industries. Its web site is here TECSYS Inc. .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF). I came across this stock when I was looking for a dividend paying small cap stock as a filler stock. I consider a filler stock to be one to soak up small amounts of investment money that I have left over in my account, especially in the TFSA after I have made my main purchase for the year.
The first thing I noticed in that there is a lot of insider selling. Usually insider selling is relatively small to the company's market cap (like around 0.02%). In this case it is 1.94%. It is a rather small company but market cap is still $141M. Even David Brereton, the founder and chairman sold stock over the past year. He went from owner 27.3% of the company to 23.6%. In fact David Brereton has been selling off stock over the last few years. In 2013 he owned 30.8% of the outstanding share, in 2014 he owned 27.9% and in 2015 he owned 27.3% as per above.
Also both the CEO and CFO sold stock last year. The trouble with people selling is that you never know why. They could just need the money. This is not the first time that the chairman and the CEO have sold stock. Both are of the Brereton family.
They started to pay dividends in 2008. Dividend yield is low and growth is moderate. The current dividend yield is 1.04% based on dividends $0.12 per year and a stock price of $11.50. The 5 year median dividend yield is also low at 1.57%. The 8 year median dividend is higher at 2.53%. The dividends have grown at 12.7% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. The last dividend increase to occur was in 2016 and it was a 10% increase in dividends.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 26% in 2015. The 5 year median is higher at 67%. The DPR for EPS for 2017 is expected to be around 30%. (This company has a reporting date in April each year, so the last annual report was for April 2016 and we are now in the 2017 financial year.)
Outstanding shares have gone down by 1% and up by 1% over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and Stock Options and decreased due to Buy Backs. The stock option plan has been cancelled. There has been good growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow.
Revenue is up by 13.6% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 27% per year over the past 5 years. I do not have EPS per year over the past 10 years as EPS was negative 10 years ago. However, total EPS is up by 425% over the past 10 years. Cash Flow is up by 30.5% over the past 5 years. Total Cash Flow is up by 998% over the past 10 years. Cash Flow was also negative 10 years ago.
The 5 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 21.69, 29.912 and 38.13. The corresponding 10 year values are lower at 15.00, 19.15 and 23.46. The historical values are even lower at 8.69, 11.51 and 14.33. The problem is that Tech companies tend to have rather high valuation, especially once they get going. The current P/E Ratio is 30.26 based on a stock price of $11.50 and 2017 EPS of $0.38. This P/E would seem a little high and also above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $4.37. The 10 year median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.94, 1.19 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.63 based on a stock price of $11.50. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 1.51. The current P/B Ratio is 5.16 based on BVPS of $2.23 and a stock price of $11.50. The current P/B Ratio is some 242% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high. The problem is that stock price (36% over 5 years) has been increasing much quicker than Book Value (9.2% over 5 years).
The current dividend yield is 1.04% based on dividends of $0.12 and a stock price of $11.50. The historical dividend yield is 2.53% a value some 58% higher. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I only find one and it is a Buy Recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $12.30. This implies a total return of 8% with 6.965 from capital gains and 1.04% from dividends.
This is an article by Dean Beeby of the Canadian Press published in the Toronto Star. TECSYS's project for LCBO was more expensive and a year late. They quoted the fact that they could not use TECSYS's system out of the box and also changes to the original specs. I worked in IT. First it should have been known at the beginning that the system would not be used as is. Secondly, you can never ever bring projects in on time and on budget when there are changes to the specifications. Changes to the specifications should never be allowed. If really necessary, they should be done later.
Jared Coughlin at Community Financial News about a report from research analysts at Cormark on TECSYS.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Pulse Seismic Inc. (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF)... learn more on Friday, August 5, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy August 2016... learn more on Thursday, August 4, 2016 around 5 pm.
TECSYS Inc. is a supply chain management software provider that delivers powerful enterprise distribution, warehouse and transportation logistics software solutions. The company's customers include about 600 mid-size and Fortune 1000 corporations in healthcare, heavy equipment, third-party logistics, and general wholesale high- volume distribution industries. Its web site is here TECSYS Inc. .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, August 2, 2016
Pulse Seismic Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably cheap and risky. I would assume that the stock price will not take off again until they announce the reinstatement of dividends. See my spreadsheet on Pulse Seismic Inc.
I do not own this stock of Pulse Seismic Inc. (TSX-PSD, OTC- PLSDF). I wanted to invest some extra money in a dividend paying small cap. I went to the Globe and Mail site of G&M and from Globe Investor section I selected the Stock Filter. I asked for companies that were priced between $1 and $5.50 and had a yield between 4% and 20%. Pulse Seismic Inc. was one of the companies that were returned. This is not a stock I chose to invest in but I found it of interest so I am following it.
The first thing I want to point out is that this company has no long term debt. They paid off all their long term debt in 2014. This company services the resource industry out West. As problems in resources has gone on this company has been increasing their debt ratios. Their Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is 4.44 with a 5 year median of 2.79. The Debt Ratio for 2015 is 5.92 with a 5 year median of 3.06. It is this sort of move from companies that tend to ensure their long term survival.
The other thing is that the company is spending money buying back its stocks. Shares are at a relative low point after the share prices peaked in December 2013. What really counts in buys backs is the decrease in Diluted Shares. For the years of 2012 to 2015, the decreases in diluted shares are at 6.24%, 3.59%, 2.20% and 3.95%.
For this company, the Revenue, EPS and Cash Flow all peaked in 2012 and have been traveling south ever since. The one analyst following this stock does not expect a turn around until 2017. The company was not going to make a profit in 2015 so they stopped the dividends after paying 3 quarterly dividends. Dividends for this company has been an on and off affair ever since they started to pay dividends in 2003.
With the stock price of $2.38, this company is some 51% off its peak price of $4.85, so on that basis the stock price could be looked at as relatively cheap. I would expect that they will reinstate their dividends once they start earning money again.
The stock price looks expensive if you look at Revenues and Cash Flow for 2016. The current P/S Ratio is 8.27 based on Revenues estimates for 2016 of $16M and a stock price of $2.38. The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 2.95 some 180% lower than the current P/S Ratio. Cash Flow for the past 12 months to the end of the second quarter is at $15.4M. The 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 4.69 against a current P/CF Ratio of 8.58 based on a stock price of $2.38.
Even the P/B Ratio stock pricing makes the stock price seem expensive because the 10 year median P/B Ratio is 1.74 against a current P/B Ratio of 3.25 based on BVPS of $$0.73 and a stock price of $2.38. The current P/B Ratio is some 87% above the 10 year ratio. BVPS has been traveling south since 2013.
However, doing this sort of testing does not tell the whole story. You have to look at the stock and if you think that it will recover, which I do by the way. Then looking at the current absolute price of $2.38 you need to figure out if this is relatively low. It probably is.
When I look for analysts' recommendations, all I find is one that the recommendation is for a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $3.00. This implies a total return of 26.05% with capital gains at 26.05% and 0% for dividends.
This company reports on its second quarterly results via Market Wired. Pulse Seismic announced the acquisition of a 2D Seismic data Library via Market Wired .
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Dorel Industries Inc. (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 3, 2016 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I am writing about Dividend Stocks August 2016... learn more .
Pulse Data Inc. is a provider of 2D and 3D seismic library data and is based in Calgary, Alberta. Pulse owns the second-largest licensable seismic data library in western Canada. Pulse's 2D and 3D seismic data library extends over the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, plus selected areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains region and northern Canada, with a particular focus on active exploration areas. Its web site is here Pulse Seismic Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Pulse Seismic Inc. (TSX-PSD, OTC- PLSDF). I wanted to invest some extra money in a dividend paying small cap. I went to the Globe and Mail site of G&M and from Globe Investor section I selected the Stock Filter. I asked for companies that were priced between $1 and $5.50 and had a yield between 4% and 20%. Pulse Seismic Inc. was one of the companies that were returned. This is not a stock I chose to invest in but I found it of interest so I am following it.
The first thing I want to point out is that this company has no long term debt. They paid off all their long term debt in 2014. This company services the resource industry out West. As problems in resources has gone on this company has been increasing their debt ratios. Their Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is 4.44 with a 5 year median of 2.79. The Debt Ratio for 2015 is 5.92 with a 5 year median of 3.06. It is this sort of move from companies that tend to ensure their long term survival.
The other thing is that the company is spending money buying back its stocks. Shares are at a relative low point after the share prices peaked in December 2013. What really counts in buys backs is the decrease in Diluted Shares. For the years of 2012 to 2015, the decreases in diluted shares are at 6.24%, 3.59%, 2.20% and 3.95%.
For this company, the Revenue, EPS and Cash Flow all peaked in 2012 and have been traveling south ever since. The one analyst following this stock does not expect a turn around until 2017. The company was not going to make a profit in 2015 so they stopped the dividends after paying 3 quarterly dividends. Dividends for this company has been an on and off affair ever since they started to pay dividends in 2003.
With the stock price of $2.38, this company is some 51% off its peak price of $4.85, so on that basis the stock price could be looked at as relatively cheap. I would expect that they will reinstate their dividends once they start earning money again.
The stock price looks expensive if you look at Revenues and Cash Flow for 2016. The current P/S Ratio is 8.27 based on Revenues estimates for 2016 of $16M and a stock price of $2.38. The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 2.95 some 180% lower than the current P/S Ratio. Cash Flow for the past 12 months to the end of the second quarter is at $15.4M. The 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 4.69 against a current P/CF Ratio of 8.58 based on a stock price of $2.38.
Even the P/B Ratio stock pricing makes the stock price seem expensive because the 10 year median P/B Ratio is 1.74 against a current P/B Ratio of 3.25 based on BVPS of $$0.73 and a stock price of $2.38. The current P/B Ratio is some 87% above the 10 year ratio. BVPS has been traveling south since 2013.
However, doing this sort of testing does not tell the whole story. You have to look at the stock and if you think that it will recover, which I do by the way. Then looking at the current absolute price of $2.38 you need to figure out if this is relatively low. It probably is.
When I look for analysts' recommendations, all I find is one that the recommendation is for a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $3.00. This implies a total return of 26.05% with capital gains at 26.05% and 0% for dividends.
This company reports on its second quarterly results via Market Wired. Pulse Seismic announced the acquisition of a 2D Seismic data Library via Market Wired .
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Dorel Industries Inc. (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 3, 2016 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I am writing about Dividend Stocks August 2016... learn more .
Pulse Data Inc. is a provider of 2D and 3D seismic library data and is based in Calgary, Alberta. Pulse owns the second-largest licensable seismic data library in western Canada. Pulse's 2D and 3D seismic data library extends over the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, plus selected areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains region and northern Canada, with a particular focus on active exploration areas. Its web site is here Pulse Seismic Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, July 29, 2016
Dorel Industries Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price probably reasonable. However, price may not be as reasonable as it might appear. The P/GP Ratio test shows the price a bit high and the dividend yield test may not be a good one for this stock. This is not a dividend growth stock. You should also note that lots of consumer discretionary companies are having a hard time in the long slow recovery. See my spreadsheet on Dorel Industries Inc.
I do not own this stock of Dorel Industries Inc. (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF) but I used to. I am following this stock because I used to own it. I am always curious about what happens to stocks after I no longer hold them. This was a stock recommended by Investment Reporter as a conservative investment. I sold the stock in 2006 because I had it for 7 years from 1999 and it was going nowhere. I bought this stock before I stopped working and at that time I did not mind buying stocks with no dividends.
This stock did not have a dividend when I held it. It started to pay dividend in 2007 around 9 years ago. They report in US$ and do business in the US. Their dividend is paid in US$. They have increased their dividends in some years quite nicely, but they are inconsistent and here has been no dividend increase since 2013. In US$ terms the dividends have grown by 15.9% and 15.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Also I should point out that the dividend increases came at the expense of the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS. Over the last 3 years the DPR has been 67%, -181% and 152%. Analysts expect that the DPR for EPS would be around 54% for 2016. This is in US$ terms.
I think that they would have been better off with a lower DPR for EPS and they should have kept the DPR low. I think that they should have only modestly increased the dividend each year. They are a consumer discretionary stock and their EPS tends to vary from year to year. EPS varying year to year is not unusual.
Their dividend yield is good. The current dividend is 4.19% in US$ terms based on a stock price of $28.67 and dividends of $1.20. The dividend is 4.20% in CDN$ terms based on a stock price of $37.69 and dividends of $1.58. You are going to get small variants in dividend yield between CDN$ and US$ due to the currency exchange. Problem I see is that as an investor it is hard to know where they are going with the dividends. They should have realized that the EPS would fluctuate as they always had in the past.
The last couple of years have not been all that good for this company. Sometimes using the 5 year running averages can put things is better perspective. It can show if there has been any growth over the past 5 year when a company has recent problems. The 5 year running averages for the past 5 years compare the average for the past 5 years to the average for past years of 6 to 10. The 5 year running averages for the past 10 years compare the average for the past 5 years to the average for the past years of 11 to 15. All the figures are in US$ unless otherwise stated as this company reports in US$.
The Revenue is up by 3% and 4.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages the growth is up by 5.1% and 6.8% per year. The 5 year running averages are better, but growth is still moderate.
Earnings per Share are down by 27% and 12% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For the 5 year running averages, the figures are less bad at declines of 12.3% and 4.7% per year. Analysts expect EPS growth to be much better in 2016 with a growth of 182% to $2.23 EPS. If you look at Q1 2016 EPS, EPS is up by 41%. This is a start. However, for 2015 EPS was expected to be $1.94 and it came in at $0.79.
Cash Flow declined by 1.4% and increased by 1.6% over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running averages show growth of 2.7% and 5.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Return on Equity has been low lately with ROE for 2015 at 2.3% and 5 year median ROE at 4.3%. However, comprehensive income for 2016 is negative. The ROE for Comprehensive Income for 2015 is a negative 6.1%. This makes you wonder about the quality of the earnings. (Note with ROE it does not matter if I use US$ or CDN$, the results will be basically the same.)
These P/E Ratios are using CDN$. The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share are 7.35, 9.36 and 11.38. The corresponding 10 year values are 7.46, 9.03 and 10.67. The historical values are 7.35, 12.16 and 14.80. The current P/E Ratio is 12.83 based on a stock price of 37.69 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.94 (CDN$ or $2.23 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. (Note the P/E Ratios in US$ are similar with 5 year values at 7.33, 9.33 and 11.34.)
I get a Graham Price of $55.28 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.54, 0.63 and 0.72. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.68 based on a stock price of $37.69 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share 0.81. The current P/B Ratio is 0.82 a values some 1% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $35.07 CDN$ and a stock price of $37.69 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.
The current dividend yield is 4.20% based on dividends of $1.58 CDN$ and a stock price of $37.69 CDN$ . The historical (sort of, but only covering 9 years) dividend yield is 2.51%. The current dividend yield at 4.2% is some 67% higher. This would suggest that the stock price is getting relatively cheap. However, this is not much data and the dividend has been rammed up with no corresponding increase in EPS.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold, but the vast majority are a Hold. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $33.83 CDN$ ($25.67 US$). This implies a total return of a loss of 6.05% with a capital loss of 10.25% and dividends of 4.20%.
Camille Ainsworth talks about recent analysts calls on Fiscal Standard. Will Ashworth on Motley Fool says why he likes this stock. I do not know where he got the dividend growth by 10% per year over the past 5 years, but this completely ignores the fact that dividends have not grown since 2013. Dorel recently lost a court case over one of their children car seats in Texas as reported in Bloomberg.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canam Group Inc. (TSX-CAM, OTC-CNMGA)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Pulse Seismic Inc. (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF)... learn more on August 2, 2016 around 5 pm.
Dorel Industries Inc. is a world class juvenile products and bicycle company. Dorel's Home Furnishings segment markets a wide assortment of both domestically produced and imported furniture products, principally within North America. Dorel has facilities in seventeen countries, and sales worldwide. There concentrated ownership of this company by the Schwartz family (66%) and Segel family (17%). Its web site is here Dorel Industries Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Dorel Industries Inc. (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF) but I used to. I am following this stock because I used to own it. I am always curious about what happens to stocks after I no longer hold them. This was a stock recommended by Investment Reporter as a conservative investment. I sold the stock in 2006 because I had it for 7 years from 1999 and it was going nowhere. I bought this stock before I stopped working and at that time I did not mind buying stocks with no dividends.
This stock did not have a dividend when I held it. It started to pay dividend in 2007 around 9 years ago. They report in US$ and do business in the US. Their dividend is paid in US$. They have increased their dividends in some years quite nicely, but they are inconsistent and here has been no dividend increase since 2013. In US$ terms the dividends have grown by 15.9% and 15.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Also I should point out that the dividend increases came at the expense of the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS. Over the last 3 years the DPR has been 67%, -181% and 152%. Analysts expect that the DPR for EPS would be around 54% for 2016. This is in US$ terms.
I think that they would have been better off with a lower DPR for EPS and they should have kept the DPR low. I think that they should have only modestly increased the dividend each year. They are a consumer discretionary stock and their EPS tends to vary from year to year. EPS varying year to year is not unusual.
Their dividend yield is good. The current dividend is 4.19% in US$ terms based on a stock price of $28.67 and dividends of $1.20. The dividend is 4.20% in CDN$ terms based on a stock price of $37.69 and dividends of $1.58. You are going to get small variants in dividend yield between CDN$ and US$ due to the currency exchange. Problem I see is that as an investor it is hard to know where they are going with the dividends. They should have realized that the EPS would fluctuate as they always had in the past.
The last couple of years have not been all that good for this company. Sometimes using the 5 year running averages can put things is better perspective. It can show if there has been any growth over the past 5 year when a company has recent problems. The 5 year running averages for the past 5 years compare the average for the past 5 years to the average for past years of 6 to 10. The 5 year running averages for the past 10 years compare the average for the past 5 years to the average for the past years of 11 to 15. All the figures are in US$ unless otherwise stated as this company reports in US$.
The Revenue is up by 3% and 4.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages the growth is up by 5.1% and 6.8% per year. The 5 year running averages are better, but growth is still moderate.
Earnings per Share are down by 27% and 12% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For the 5 year running averages, the figures are less bad at declines of 12.3% and 4.7% per year. Analysts expect EPS growth to be much better in 2016 with a growth of 182% to $2.23 EPS. If you look at Q1 2016 EPS, EPS is up by 41%. This is a start. However, for 2015 EPS was expected to be $1.94 and it came in at $0.79.
Cash Flow declined by 1.4% and increased by 1.6% over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running averages show growth of 2.7% and 5.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Return on Equity has been low lately with ROE for 2015 at 2.3% and 5 year median ROE at 4.3%. However, comprehensive income for 2016 is negative. The ROE for Comprehensive Income for 2015 is a negative 6.1%. This makes you wonder about the quality of the earnings. (Note with ROE it does not matter if I use US$ or CDN$, the results will be basically the same.)
These P/E Ratios are using CDN$. The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share are 7.35, 9.36 and 11.38. The corresponding 10 year values are 7.46, 9.03 and 10.67. The historical values are 7.35, 12.16 and 14.80. The current P/E Ratio is 12.83 based on a stock price of 37.69 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.94 (CDN$ or $2.23 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. (Note the P/E Ratios in US$ are similar with 5 year values at 7.33, 9.33 and 11.34.)
I get a Graham Price of $55.28 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.54, 0.63 and 0.72. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.68 based on a stock price of $37.69 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share 0.81. The current P/B Ratio is 0.82 a values some 1% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $35.07 CDN$ and a stock price of $37.69 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.
The current dividend yield is 4.20% based on dividends of $1.58 CDN$ and a stock price of $37.69 CDN$ . The historical (sort of, but only covering 9 years) dividend yield is 2.51%. The current dividend yield at 4.2% is some 67% higher. This would suggest that the stock price is getting relatively cheap. However, this is not much data and the dividend has been rammed up with no corresponding increase in EPS.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold, but the vast majority are a Hold. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $33.83 CDN$ ($25.67 US$). This implies a total return of a loss of 6.05% with a capital loss of 10.25% and dividends of 4.20%.
Camille Ainsworth talks about recent analysts calls on Fiscal Standard. Will Ashworth on Motley Fool says why he likes this stock. I do not know where he got the dividend growth by 10% per year over the past 5 years, but this completely ignores the fact that dividends have not grown since 2013. Dorel recently lost a court case over one of their children car seats in Texas as reported in Bloomberg.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canam Group Inc. (TSX-CAM, OTC-CNMGA)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Pulse Seismic Inc. (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF)... learn more on August 2, 2016 around 5 pm.
Dorel Industries Inc. is a world class juvenile products and bicycle company. Dorel's Home Furnishings segment markets a wide assortment of both domestically produced and imported furniture products, principally within North America. Dorel has facilities in seventeen countries, and sales worldwide. There concentrated ownership of this company by the Schwartz family (66%) and Segel family (17%). Its web site is here Dorel Industries Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Canam Group Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is cheap to reasonable. This is a relatively small but growing company. It could do very well if governments invest in infrastructure. See my spreadsheet on Canam Group Inc.
I do not own this stock of Canam Group Inc. (TSX-CAM, OTC-CNMGA). I started following this stock in September 2009 as I read a favorable review on it. I am interested in small cap companies that pay dividends, so this company fits into what I want to investigate.
Dividends were started in 1999, but they have been on a rollercoaster ride. They have gone up and down and been cancelled and reinstated. Dividends were restarted in 2014 and since then have been flat. If you had bought this stock 5, 10, 15 or 20 years ago at a median price, dividends would have paid for 8.3%, 13%, 19% and 69% of your stock's cost. If you have bought this stock 5, 10, 15 or 20 years ago at a median price you would be earning a dividend yield of 2.8%, 1.7%, 1.9% or 4.2%.
The current dividend yield is low and it is hard to say when or if ever the dividends would increase. The company had never paid a higher dividend than it is paying at present. It has gotten as high as the current dividend in the past. The current dividend yield is just 1.49% based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $10.75.
Can shareholders make any money on this stock? It probably depends on when it is bought. For the 5 and 10 years to the end of 2015, the Total Return was 14.60% and 8.35% per year. The dividend portion of this return was at 0.78% and 1.35% per year. The capital gain portion of this return was at 13.82% and 7.00% per year.
However, if you bought this stock 5 or 10 years ago to the present date the story is different for both the 5 and 10 years periods. . For the 5 and 10 years to the present, the Total Return is 22.58% and 2.73% per year. The dividend portion of this return is at 1.32% and 1.22% per year. The capital gain portion of this return was at 21.26% and 1.50% per year. It would seem you need to pick your entry point carefully.
Ten years ago from the present it was not so much that the stock's price was high, but today's price is after a fall of the stock's price by 23% in 2016. This can account for the low 2.7% total return over 10 years. Five years ago from the present this stock was at a low point and this accounts for the 22.6% total return over past 5 years.
This stock has very good debt ratios. This enables a company to ride out the bad times. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.01 and the 5 year median ratio is also 2.01. The Debt Ratio for 2015 is 2.15 and its 5 year median ratio is 2.09. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2015 are 1.87 and 0.87 respectively. The corresponding 5 year median ratios are 1.92 and 0.92, respectively.
The Return on Equity Ratios, especially over the past 5 years has been low. The ROE for 2015 is just 7.5% and the 5 year median is 6.4%. However, the ROE using the Comprehensive Income has been better with the ROE for 2015 at 17.3% and the 5 year median at 11.4%. This would suggest that earnings are better than stated.
The have had good revenue growth with Revenue per Share growth at 15% and 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings have been all over the place with 2015 being a very good year. EPS is up by 244% and 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at 5 year running average, over the past 5 years EPS is down by 7.6% per year.
CFPS is more consistent, but 5 years ago was not a good year for CFPS and therefore the 5 year growth is at 21.5%. However, if you look at 5 year running averages, CFPS is down by 18.3% per year. (5 year running averages compare the last 5 years averages to years 6 to 10 averages.)
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.61, 12.43 and 14.95. The corresponding 10 year values are 9.49, 12.71 and 12.78. The historical values are 7.77, 9.80 and 12.63. The current P/E Ratio is 10.64 based on a stock price of $10.75 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.01. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $17.10. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.59, 0.78 and 1.02. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $10.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 years Price/Book Value per Share Ratio 0.99. The current P/B Ratio is 0.84 based on BVPS of $12.87 and a stock price of $10.75. The current P/B Ratio is some 16% lower than the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. The current ratio would have to be 20% lower than the 10 years ratio for the stock to be considered relatively cheap.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.30%. The current dividend yield of 1.49% is some 14.5% higher based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $10.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most recommendations are a Buy and the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is 15.79. This implies a total return of 48.37% with 1.49% from dividends and 46.88% from capital gains. This would basically take this stock back to the highs of 2014 and 2015.
In a press report on News Wire Canam Group announced that an in-depth assessment will lead to the recording of an after-tax reserve of $32M in the second quarter of 2016 to take into account the revised cost estimates for a significant project. Scott Moore on The Certa Gem talks about recent analysts' reports. Damon van der Linde on Financial Post does a rather favorable report on this company. It points out both positive and negative aspects of this company.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (TSX-PWT, NYSE-PWE)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Dorel Industries Inc. (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF)... learn more on Friday, July 29, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Growth... learn more on Thursday, July 28, 2016 around 5 pm.
Canam Group specializes in the design and fabrication of construction products and solutions for the commercial, industrial, institutional, multi-unit residential, and bridge and highway infrastructure markets. This company has offices in Canada, US, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, India, Romania France and China. Its web site is here Canam Group Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Canam Group Inc. (TSX-CAM, OTC-CNMGA). I started following this stock in September 2009 as I read a favorable review on it. I am interested in small cap companies that pay dividends, so this company fits into what I want to investigate.
Dividends were started in 1999, but they have been on a rollercoaster ride. They have gone up and down and been cancelled and reinstated. Dividends were restarted in 2014 and since then have been flat. If you had bought this stock 5, 10, 15 or 20 years ago at a median price, dividends would have paid for 8.3%, 13%, 19% and 69% of your stock's cost. If you have bought this stock 5, 10, 15 or 20 years ago at a median price you would be earning a dividend yield of 2.8%, 1.7%, 1.9% or 4.2%.
The current dividend yield is low and it is hard to say when or if ever the dividends would increase. The company had never paid a higher dividend than it is paying at present. It has gotten as high as the current dividend in the past. The current dividend yield is just 1.49% based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $10.75.
Can shareholders make any money on this stock? It probably depends on when it is bought. For the 5 and 10 years to the end of 2015, the Total Return was 14.60% and 8.35% per year. The dividend portion of this return was at 0.78% and 1.35% per year. The capital gain portion of this return was at 13.82% and 7.00% per year.
However, if you bought this stock 5 or 10 years ago to the present date the story is different for both the 5 and 10 years periods. . For the 5 and 10 years to the present, the Total Return is 22.58% and 2.73% per year. The dividend portion of this return is at 1.32% and 1.22% per year. The capital gain portion of this return was at 21.26% and 1.50% per year. It would seem you need to pick your entry point carefully.
Ten years ago from the present it was not so much that the stock's price was high, but today's price is after a fall of the stock's price by 23% in 2016. This can account for the low 2.7% total return over 10 years. Five years ago from the present this stock was at a low point and this accounts for the 22.6% total return over past 5 years.
This stock has very good debt ratios. This enables a company to ride out the bad times. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.01 and the 5 year median ratio is also 2.01. The Debt Ratio for 2015 is 2.15 and its 5 year median ratio is 2.09. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2015 are 1.87 and 0.87 respectively. The corresponding 5 year median ratios are 1.92 and 0.92, respectively.
The Return on Equity Ratios, especially over the past 5 years has been low. The ROE for 2015 is just 7.5% and the 5 year median is 6.4%. However, the ROE using the Comprehensive Income has been better with the ROE for 2015 at 17.3% and the 5 year median at 11.4%. This would suggest that earnings are better than stated.
The have had good revenue growth with Revenue per Share growth at 15% and 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings have been all over the place with 2015 being a very good year. EPS is up by 244% and 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at 5 year running average, over the past 5 years EPS is down by 7.6% per year.
CFPS is more consistent, but 5 years ago was not a good year for CFPS and therefore the 5 year growth is at 21.5%. However, if you look at 5 year running averages, CFPS is down by 18.3% per year. (5 year running averages compare the last 5 years averages to years 6 to 10 averages.)
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.61, 12.43 and 14.95. The corresponding 10 year values are 9.49, 12.71 and 12.78. The historical values are 7.77, 9.80 and 12.63. The current P/E Ratio is 10.64 based on a stock price of $10.75 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.01. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $17.10. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.59, 0.78 and 1.02. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $10.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 years Price/Book Value per Share Ratio 0.99. The current P/B Ratio is 0.84 based on BVPS of $12.87 and a stock price of $10.75. The current P/B Ratio is some 16% lower than the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. The current ratio would have to be 20% lower than the 10 years ratio for the stock to be considered relatively cheap.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.30%. The current dividend yield of 1.49% is some 14.5% higher based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $10.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most recommendations are a Buy and the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is 15.79. This implies a total return of 48.37% with 1.49% from dividends and 46.88% from capital gains. This would basically take this stock back to the highs of 2014 and 2015.
In a press report on News Wire Canam Group announced that an in-depth assessment will lead to the recording of an after-tax reserve of $32M in the second quarter of 2016 to take into account the revised cost estimates for a significant project. Scott Moore on The Certa Gem talks about recent analysts' reports. Damon van der Linde on Financial Post does a rather favorable report on this company. It points out both positive and negative aspects of this company.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (TSX-PWT, NYSE-PWE)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Dorel Industries Inc. (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF)... learn more on Friday, July 29, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Growth... learn more on Thursday, July 28, 2016 around 5 pm.
Canam Group specializes in the design and fabrication of construction products and solutions for the commercial, industrial, institutional, multi-unit residential, and bridge and highway infrastructure markets. This company has offices in Canada, US, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, India, Romania France and China. Its web site is here Canam Group Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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