On my other blog I am today writing about Canadian Banks and their ratios continue...
I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009.
When I look at insider trading, I find $2.9M of insider buying and $16.6M of insider selling with net insider selling at $13.7M. Since net insider selling is some 0.02% of the stock's market cap, it is relatively a small number.
There is insider ownership with the CEP having shares worth around $5.2M, a director having shares worth around $33.2M and the chairman having shares worth around $16.1M. However, the shares just quoted only add up to 0.08% of the outstanding shares and therefore insider ownership is relatively small.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.25, 13.62 and 15.37. They are slightly higher than the corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios at 12.00, 13.55 and 14.91. The current P/E Ratio is 20.60 based on a stock price of $87.13 and 2015 EPS estimate of $4.23. Looking at my spreadsheet it is easy to see that the P/E Ratios of 2013 and 2014 are higher than they have been in the past. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $36.40. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.08, 1.23 and 1.42. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.39 based on a stock price of $87.13. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.57. The current P/B Ratio is 5.24 based on a BVPS of $16.64 and a stock price of $87.13. The current P/B Ratio is some 103% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
The 5 year median, the historical average and the historical median dividend yields are 1.77%, 1.57% and 1.44%. The current dividend yield is 1.43% based on a stock price of $87.13 and a dividend of $1.25. The current dividend is some 19%, 8.3% and 0.04% lower than the current dividend. The first test suggests that the dividend yield shows a relatively high price, but the last two look towards a more reasonable price.
Also it is interesting to note that the median dividend yield based on the year end closing price is at 1.42%, a value just below the current dividend yield of 1.43%.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. All but a few of the recommendations are a Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock consensus price is $80.70. This implies a loss of 5.95% with 1.43% from dividends and a capital loss of 7.38%.
In a recent report, Andrew Walker of the Motley Fool says there is a possibility of share appreciation and big dividend hikes with this company. In a recent article by Carolyn King in the Wall Street Journal, she says CNR is ahead in moving grain against government mandated targets. A January article by Kristine Owram in the Financial Post talks about the recent 25% dividend hike by CNR as the biggest in the company's history.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is reasonable to expensive. My favourite tests involve using the dividend yield and using this measure, especially the historical median dividend yield, the stock price becomes reasonable. See my spreadsheet at cnr.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, February 10, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Canadian National Railway Company and its operating railway subsidiaries, spans Canada and mid-America, from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the Gulf of Mexico, serving the ports of Vancouver, Prince Rupert, B.C., Montreal, Halifax, New Orleans, and Mobile, Ala., and the key metropolitan areas of Toronto, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Duluth, Minn./Superior, Wis., Green Bay, Wis., Minneapolis/St. Paul, Memphis, St. Louis, and Jackson, Miss., with connections to all points in North America. Its web site is here CNR.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Canadian National Railway
I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009.
This stock has a moderate dividend with good increases. The current dividend is1.43% and the 5 year median dividend is 1.77%. The dividend growth is at 14.6% and 17.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase occurred in 2015 and it was for 25%.
This company was a crown corporation until 1995. It started to pay dividends in 1996, some 19 years ago. The dividend yield was at its highest in 2009. Since buying this stock in 2005 I have earned $5.30 in dividends and my stock cost me $19.11 per share. One way of looking at this is that dividends have covered some 27.8% of the cost of my stock.
Another way of looking at the dividends is that the yield was 1.31% when I purchased this stock and using the original purchase price, I am getting a current yield of 6.54% now. My dividends are up over a 10 year period by 400% or 18.48% per year.
I color code the growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow on my spreadsheet. When I look at this spreadsheet I see blue and green. Also, you can see that 5 year growth is much better than 10 years growth. Overall, growth has been moderate to very good for this company.
The outstanding shares have decreased by 3% and 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. So looking at either just Revenue or Revenue per Share would not tell you the whole story. Because shares are decreasing the growth in Revenue becomes more important than the growth in Revenue per Share.
Revenue is up by 10.5% and 6.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown by 13.9% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. You can see that Revenue growth is not as good as Revenue per Share growth. This is due to the declining number of outstanding shares. However, overall Revenue growth is moderate to good.
You get the same thing with EPS and Net Income. EPS has grown by 14.5% and 13.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Net Income is up by 11.3% and 9.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth in earnings is very good as is growth in net income, even though it is lower.
CFPS is up by 19.7% and 9.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years and Cash Flow is up by 16.2% and 7.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. You can see here also that CFPS is growing faster than Cash Flow. However, the growth in Cash Flow is still moderate to very good.
The Return on Equity has not been lower than 10% over the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 is at 23.5% with a 5 year median of 23%. The ROE on comprehensive income has generally been lower than the ROE on net income. The ROE on comprehensive income was at 19.2% in 2014 and has a 5 year median of 19.23. The ROE on comprehensive income has not been lower than 10% over the past 10 years.
The Liquidity Ratio is low and has generally been low. However, if you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio is generally above 1.50. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is 0.74. When you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio becomes 2.77. This suggests that cash flow is important for the company to meet current liabilities.
The Debt Ratio is good and has always been good. The ratio for 2014 was 1.74. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a bit high but quite normal for an industrial stock. For 2014 these ratios were 2.36 and 1.36.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial dividend growth stock doing well. See my spreadsheet at cnr.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, February 11, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Canadian National Railway Company and its operating railway subsidiaries, spans Canada and mid-America, from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the Gulf of Mexico, serving the ports of Vancouver, Prince Rupert, B.C., Montreal, Halifax, New Orleans, and Mobile, Ala., and the key metropolitan areas of Toronto, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Duluth, Minn./Superior, Wis., Green Bay, Wis., Minneapolis/St. Paul, Memphis, St. Louis, and Jackson, Miss., with connections to all points in North America. Its web site is here CNR.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This stock has a moderate dividend with good increases. The current dividend is1.43% and the 5 year median dividend is 1.77%. The dividend growth is at 14.6% and 17.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase occurred in 2015 and it was for 25%.
This company was a crown corporation until 1995. It started to pay dividends in 1996, some 19 years ago. The dividend yield was at its highest in 2009. Since buying this stock in 2005 I have earned $5.30 in dividends and my stock cost me $19.11 per share. One way of looking at this is that dividends have covered some 27.8% of the cost of my stock.
Another way of looking at the dividends is that the yield was 1.31% when I purchased this stock and using the original purchase price, I am getting a current yield of 6.54% now. My dividends are up over a 10 year period by 400% or 18.48% per year.
I color code the growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow on my spreadsheet. When I look at this spreadsheet I see blue and green. Also, you can see that 5 year growth is much better than 10 years growth. Overall, growth has been moderate to very good for this company.
The outstanding shares have decreased by 3% and 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. So looking at either just Revenue or Revenue per Share would not tell you the whole story. Because shares are decreasing the growth in Revenue becomes more important than the growth in Revenue per Share.
Revenue is up by 10.5% and 6.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown by 13.9% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. You can see that Revenue growth is not as good as Revenue per Share growth. This is due to the declining number of outstanding shares. However, overall Revenue growth is moderate to good.
You get the same thing with EPS and Net Income. EPS has grown by 14.5% and 13.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Net Income is up by 11.3% and 9.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth in earnings is very good as is growth in net income, even though it is lower.
CFPS is up by 19.7% and 9.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years and Cash Flow is up by 16.2% and 7.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. You can see here also that CFPS is growing faster than Cash Flow. However, the growth in Cash Flow is still moderate to very good.
The Return on Equity has not been lower than 10% over the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 is at 23.5% with a 5 year median of 23%. The ROE on comprehensive income has generally been lower than the ROE on net income. The ROE on comprehensive income was at 19.2% in 2014 and has a 5 year median of 19.23. The ROE on comprehensive income has not been lower than 10% over the past 10 years.
The Liquidity Ratio is low and has generally been low. However, if you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio is generally above 1.50. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is 0.74. When you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio becomes 2.77. This suggests that cash flow is important for the company to meet current liabilities.
The Debt Ratio is good and has always been good. The ratio for 2014 was 1.74. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a bit high but quite normal for an industrial stock. For 2014 these ratios were 2.36 and 1.36.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial dividend growth stock doing well. See my spreadsheet at cnr.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, February 11, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Canadian National Railway Company and its operating railway subsidiaries, spans Canada and mid-America, from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the Gulf of Mexico, serving the ports of Vancouver, Prince Rupert, B.C., Montreal, Halifax, New Orleans, and Mobile, Ala., and the key metropolitan areas of Toronto, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Duluth, Minn./Superior, Wis., Green Bay, Wis., Minneapolis/St. Paul, Memphis, St. Louis, and Jackson, Miss., with connections to all points in North America. Its web site is here CNR.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, February 9, 2015
Exco Technologies Ltd. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about judging the price of a stock continue...
I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a relatively small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.
When I look at insider trading I find some insider buying and some insider selling. There is a more insider selling than buying. Insiders have ownership with the CEO owing shares worth around $98M and around 22% of outstanding shares. There an officer with share worth around $47M and this is some 11% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share ratios are 8.28, 10.03 and 11.78. The corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios are a bit higher at 8.39, 10.21 and 12.04. The current P/E Ratio is 15.05 based on a stock price of $18.30 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high. However, on an absolute basis, a P/E Ratio of 15 is not high.
I get a Graham Price of $10.34. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.76 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.38 based on a stock price of $14.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.19. The current P/B Ratio at 2.86 is some 140% higher based on a stock price of $18.30 and BVPS of $5.01. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
I get 5 year median, historical average and historical median Dividend Yields of 2.97%, 2.47% and 1.97%. These are 43%, 32% and 15% higher than the current dividend yield of 1.68%. The current yield is based on a dividend $0.24 and a stock price of $18.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
The company Exco Technologies announces a 20% dividend increase because of strong business fundamentals. The web site Dakota Financial News has announced some recent recommendations from analysts. At the end of 2014, Exco Technologies announced a major new contract.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I get Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy Recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.90. This implies a total return of 5.87% with 4.20% from capital gains and $1.68% from dividends. To me, the consensus stock price does not support a Buy recommendation, but the stock price has been rising strongly lately.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Expensive, but has momentum. On a relative historical basis, the stock price is getting expensive. However, this stock current has good momentum. See my spreadsheet at xtc.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, February 6, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Exco is a global designer, developer and manufacturer of dies, moulds, equipment, components and assemblies to the die-cast, extrusion and automotive industries. The Die Casting and Extrusion Technology groups operations are based in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Colombia and primarily serve automotive and industrial markets throughout the world. The Automotive Solutions Group has facilities are located in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Morocco and supply the North American, European and Asian markets. Its web site is here Exco Technologies.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a relatively small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.
When I look at insider trading I find some insider buying and some insider selling. There is a more insider selling than buying. Insiders have ownership with the CEO owing shares worth around $98M and around 22% of outstanding shares. There an officer with share worth around $47M and this is some 11% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share ratios are 8.28, 10.03 and 11.78. The corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios are a bit higher at 8.39, 10.21 and 12.04. The current P/E Ratio is 15.05 based on a stock price of $18.30 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high. However, on an absolute basis, a P/E Ratio of 15 is not high.
I get a Graham Price of $10.34. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.76 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.38 based on a stock price of $14.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.19. The current P/B Ratio at 2.86 is some 140% higher based on a stock price of $18.30 and BVPS of $5.01. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
I get 5 year median, historical average and historical median Dividend Yields of 2.97%, 2.47% and 1.97%. These are 43%, 32% and 15% higher than the current dividend yield of 1.68%. The current yield is based on a dividend $0.24 and a stock price of $18.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
The company Exco Technologies announces a 20% dividend increase because of strong business fundamentals. The web site Dakota Financial News has announced some recent recommendations from analysts. At the end of 2014, Exco Technologies announced a major new contract.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I get Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy Recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.90. This implies a total return of 5.87% with 4.20% from capital gains and $1.68% from dividends. To me, the consensus stock price does not support a Buy recommendation, but the stock price has been rising strongly lately.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Expensive, but has momentum. On a relative historical basis, the stock price is getting expensive. However, this stock current has good momentum. See my spreadsheet at xtc.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, February 6, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Exco is a global designer, developer and manufacturer of dies, moulds, equipment, components and assemblies to the die-cast, extrusion and automotive industries. The Die Casting and Extrusion Technology groups operations are based in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Colombia and primarily serve automotive and industrial markets throughout the world. The Automotive Solutions Group has facilities are located in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Morocco and supply the North American, European and Asian markets. Its web site is here Exco Technologies.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, February 6, 2015
Exco Technologies Ltd.
I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.
The company started to pay dividends in 2003about 13 years ago. I consider them a dividend growth company and they have increased their dividends every year over the past 9 years. The dividends are low to moderate and the dividend growth is high. The current dividend is 1.71% with a 5 year median of 2.97%. The dividends have grown at 22.7% and 14.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The last dividend increase was in 2015 and the increase was quite good at 20%. The current dividend is rather low, but not as low as it has gone in the past. The historical low dividend yield is 0.7% and the high is 4.3%. The stock price has been rather volatile.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 29% and for CFPS is $18.2%. The DPRs for 2014 was at 26.7% for EPS and at 19.6% for CFPS.
I color code the growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow on my spreadsheet. When I look at this spreadsheet there is a mixture of all three colors. Also, you can see that 5 year growth is much better than 10 years growth.
Revenue growth is at 20.7% and 5.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has grown by 30.7% and 12.7% per year over the past 4 and 10 years. I only have 4 years of growth for EPS as 2009 EPS was negative. CFPS is up by 58.7% and 3.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Over the past 5 years, the Return on Equity was negative only once. The ROE was 15.1% in 2014 and it has a 5 year ROE of 14.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 was 17.5% and its 5 year median ROE is 14%. The median difference between these ROE is just 0.8% over the past 5 years. This suggests that the net income is of good quality.
The Liquidity Ratio has been good over the past 5 years and the one for 2014 was 2.00. The Debt Ratio has been good also with the 2014 ratio at 3.31. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios have always been good with the ones for 2014 at 1.43 and 0.43.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Small cap dividend growth Tech company. See my spreadsheet at xtc.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, February 9, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Exco is a global designer, developer and manufacturer of dies, moulds, equipment, components and assemblies to the die-cast, extrusion and automotive industries. The Die Casting and Extrusion Technology groups operations are based in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Colombia and primarily serve automotive and industrial markets throughout the world. The Automotive Solutions Group has facilities are located in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Morocco and supply the North American, European and Asian markets. Its web site is here Exco Technologies.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
The company started to pay dividends in 2003about 13 years ago. I consider them a dividend growth company and they have increased their dividends every year over the past 9 years. The dividends are low to moderate and the dividend growth is high. The current dividend is 1.71% with a 5 year median of 2.97%. The dividends have grown at 22.7% and 14.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The last dividend increase was in 2015 and the increase was quite good at 20%. The current dividend is rather low, but not as low as it has gone in the past. The historical low dividend yield is 0.7% and the high is 4.3%. The stock price has been rather volatile.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 29% and for CFPS is $18.2%. The DPRs for 2014 was at 26.7% for EPS and at 19.6% for CFPS.
I color code the growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow on my spreadsheet. When I look at this spreadsheet there is a mixture of all three colors. Also, you can see that 5 year growth is much better than 10 years growth.
Revenue growth is at 20.7% and 5.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has grown by 30.7% and 12.7% per year over the past 4 and 10 years. I only have 4 years of growth for EPS as 2009 EPS was negative. CFPS is up by 58.7% and 3.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Over the past 5 years, the Return on Equity was negative only once. The ROE was 15.1% in 2014 and it has a 5 year ROE of 14.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 was 17.5% and its 5 year median ROE is 14%. The median difference between these ROE is just 0.8% over the past 5 years. This suggests that the net income is of good quality.
The Liquidity Ratio has been good over the past 5 years and the one for 2014 was 2.00. The Debt Ratio has been good also with the 2014 ratio at 3.31. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios have always been good with the ones for 2014 at 1.43 and 0.43.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Small cap dividend growth Tech company. See my spreadsheet at xtc.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, February 9, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Exco is a global designer, developer and manufacturer of dies, moulds, equipment, components and assemblies to the die-cast, extrusion and automotive industries. The Die Casting and Extrusion Technology groups operations are based in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Colombia and primarily serve automotive and industrial markets throughout the world. The Automotive Solutions Group has facilities are located in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Morocco and supply the North American, European and Asian markets. Its web site is here Exco Technologies.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, February 5, 2015
AGF Management Ltd. 2
I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd. (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF), but I used to. I bought it in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.
When I look at insider trading there is a little bit of insider buying and a little bit of insider selling. There are Class A voting shares with the major shareholder being the Goldring family. Controlling shareholder is Charles Warren Golding who has 80% voting control. The Class B shares are non-voting shares.
In 2014 the outstanding shares were increased by some 460,000 for stock option purposes. The book value of these shares was $4.6M and this number of shares was worth $4.8M at the end of 2014. This number of shares is only 0.57% of the outstanding shares. This is rather average relative percentage for increases in shares due to stock options.
However, one has to wonder about a company giving out stock options when they have not done very well for a number of years.
The 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratios are 13.69, 16.32 and 18.96. The corresponding 10 years ratios are close at 13.35, 15.70 and 20.44. The current P/E Ratio is 11.97 based on a stock price of $8.02 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.67. This stock price test says that the stock is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $12.78. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.74, 1.03 and 1.45. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $8.02. This stock price test says that the stock is relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.27 and the current P/B Ratio is 0.74 based on a BVPS of $10.84 and a stock price of $8.02. This means that the stock is selling at a price below the theoretical breakup value of the company. This stock price test says that the stock is relatively cheap.
With the dividend cut in 2015 by 70%, they now have a dividend yield of 3.99%. Surprisingly this dividend yield is higher than the historical median dividend yield of 2.87%. This median dividend yield is much lower than the average which is 6.22%. This stock price test says that the stock is relatively good.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be an Underperform recommendation. The 12 month consensus stock price is $7.83. This implies a total return of $11.10% with 13.47% from dividends and a capital loss of 2.37%.
The company recently gave notice via newswire that they intend to buy back shares. This would not be my preferred action for this company to take. At least the share price is low. According to Dakota Financial News an analyst lowered their stock target price and another analyst lowered their recommendation level. The company announced a dividend cut of 70% on December 9, 2014.
I must admit I missed the dividend cut announcement. I notice that they talked about the January dividend payment for $0.27 in their press release, but I missed a later part of this press release when they said they were cutting the dividend.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap but momentum trend is down. Lowering the dividend so that they can buy back stock is hardly an improvement. I still expect the company to recover at some point. See my spreadsheet at agf.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, February 04, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
AGF Management Limited is an integrated, global wealth management company, whose principal subsidiaries provide investment management for mutual funds, institutions and corporations, as well as high-net-worth clients; and trust products and services. They sell their products in Canada. Its web site is here AGF Management.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading there is a little bit of insider buying and a little bit of insider selling. There are Class A voting shares with the major shareholder being the Goldring family. Controlling shareholder is Charles Warren Golding who has 80% voting control. The Class B shares are non-voting shares.
In 2014 the outstanding shares were increased by some 460,000 for stock option purposes. The book value of these shares was $4.6M and this number of shares was worth $4.8M at the end of 2014. This number of shares is only 0.57% of the outstanding shares. This is rather average relative percentage for increases in shares due to stock options.
However, one has to wonder about a company giving out stock options when they have not done very well for a number of years.
The 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratios are 13.69, 16.32 and 18.96. The corresponding 10 years ratios are close at 13.35, 15.70 and 20.44. The current P/E Ratio is 11.97 based on a stock price of $8.02 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.67. This stock price test says that the stock is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $12.78. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.74, 1.03 and 1.45. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $8.02. This stock price test says that the stock is relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.27 and the current P/B Ratio is 0.74 based on a BVPS of $10.84 and a stock price of $8.02. This means that the stock is selling at a price below the theoretical breakup value of the company. This stock price test says that the stock is relatively cheap.
With the dividend cut in 2015 by 70%, they now have a dividend yield of 3.99%. Surprisingly this dividend yield is higher than the historical median dividend yield of 2.87%. This median dividend yield is much lower than the average which is 6.22%. This stock price test says that the stock is relatively good.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be an Underperform recommendation. The 12 month consensus stock price is $7.83. This implies a total return of $11.10% with 13.47% from dividends and a capital loss of 2.37%.
The company recently gave notice via newswire that they intend to buy back shares. This would not be my preferred action for this company to take. At least the share price is low. According to Dakota Financial News an analyst lowered their stock target price and another analyst lowered their recommendation level. The company announced a dividend cut of 70% on December 9, 2014.
I must admit I missed the dividend cut announcement. I notice that they talked about the January dividend payment for $0.27 in their press release, but I missed a later part of this press release when they said they were cutting the dividend.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap but momentum trend is down. Lowering the dividend so that they can buy back stock is hardly an improvement. I still expect the company to recover at some point. See my spreadsheet at agf.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, February 04, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
AGF Management Limited is an integrated, global wealth management company, whose principal subsidiaries provide investment management for mutual funds, institutions and corporations, as well as high-net-worth clients; and trust products and services. They sell their products in Canada. Its web site is here AGF Management.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, February 4, 2015
AGF Management Ltd.
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for February 2015 continue...
I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd. (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF), but I used to. I bought it in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.
This stock I used to consider to be considered a dividend growth stock. I sold in 2008 because it kept raising its dividend at the expense of the Dividend Payout Ratios. The company finally stopped raising their dividends in 2013. That year the DPR for EPS was 432% and for CFPS 82%. In 2014 for DPR for EPS was at 154% and for CFPS was at 162%.
* * I missed that they are cutting the dividend by 70%. It is about time. However, they plan to buy back stock. I do not think this is better.
I think that prudent management stops raising the dividends when they can no longer afford to raise them. I know that companies that do stop raising their dividends get dumped in the stock market. However, good companies act in prudent ways.
This company was fooling no one. The company historically had dividend yield in the 2 to 3%, although it did also go below 1% and above 4% at different times. Now the dividend yield is at 13.17% and in the past year hit a high of 15.5%.
As I have mentioned before, I color code the growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow on my spreadsheet. For this company all I see is red. For Revenue per Share, growth is down by 3.8% and 2.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For EPS, growth is down by 8.5% and 1.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For CFPS, growth is down by 22.1% and 11.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Is there any sign of improvement? Well, Revenue and Revenue per share has been declining for the past 3 years and is expected to decline again in 2015, but improve a bit in 2016. EPS was fairly good last year and was an improvement after 3 years of decline. However, EPS is expected to be lower in 2015 and 2016. CFPS has decline for the last 4 years. There is expected to be an improvement in 2015.
Do not forget that expected improvements are all to do with estimates for 2015. Estimates are just that, estimates. In 2014 the estimate for Revenue was $463 and Revenue was $464. In 2014 the estimate for EPS was $0.53 and EPS was $0.70. In 2014 the estimate for CFPS was $1.37 and CFPS was $0.66.
The Return on Equity was generally between 13% and 20% prior to 2008. It has only broke 10% once since then. The ROE for 2014 was 6.6% with a 5 year median also of 6.6%. For 2014 the comprehensive income ROE was 7% with a 5 year median of 7%. The ROE on comprehensive income has been better or worse than the ROE on net income with a 5 year variance of just 0.1%.
For the last 2 years the debt ratios have been very good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 3.63, the Debt Ratio was 2.60 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios were 1.63 and 0.63. However, these ratios were not good prior to 3 year ago. In 2011 the Liquidity Ratio was 0.67 (with cash flow after dividend added it, it was just 0.71). The Debt Ratio in 2011 was 1.32 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios were 4.12 and 3.12.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Still not doing well. Maybe if they had made better decision in the past, the company would be in better shape today. I know people who live off their dividends like I do, do punish companies that cut dividends. However, living off my dividends I can better afford a cut dividend that a company bankruptcy, but I do think that this company will recover eventually. See my spreadsheet at agf.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, February 5, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
AGF Management Limited is an integrated, global wealth management company, whose principal subsidiaries provide investment management for mutual funds, institutions and corporations, as well as high-net-worth clients; and trust products and services. They sell their products in Canada. Its web site is here AGF Management.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd. (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF), but I used to. I bought it in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.
This stock I used to consider to be considered a dividend growth stock. I sold in 2008 because it kept raising its dividend at the expense of the Dividend Payout Ratios. The company finally stopped raising their dividends in 2013. That year the DPR for EPS was 432% and for CFPS 82%. In 2014 for DPR for EPS was at 154% and for CFPS was at 162%.
* * I missed that they are cutting the dividend by 70%. It is about time. However, they plan to buy back stock. I do not think this is better.
I think that prudent management stops raising the dividends when they can no longer afford to raise them. I know that companies that do stop raising their dividends get dumped in the stock market. However, good companies act in prudent ways.
This company was fooling no one. The company historically had dividend yield in the 2 to 3%, although it did also go below 1% and above 4% at different times. Now the dividend yield is at 13.17% and in the past year hit a high of 15.5%.
As I have mentioned before, I color code the growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow on my spreadsheet. For this company all I see is red. For Revenue per Share, growth is down by 3.8% and 2.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For EPS, growth is down by 8.5% and 1.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For CFPS, growth is down by 22.1% and 11.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Is there any sign of improvement? Well, Revenue and Revenue per share has been declining for the past 3 years and is expected to decline again in 2015, but improve a bit in 2016. EPS was fairly good last year and was an improvement after 3 years of decline. However, EPS is expected to be lower in 2015 and 2016. CFPS has decline for the last 4 years. There is expected to be an improvement in 2015.
Do not forget that expected improvements are all to do with estimates for 2015. Estimates are just that, estimates. In 2014 the estimate for Revenue was $463 and Revenue was $464. In 2014 the estimate for EPS was $0.53 and EPS was $0.70. In 2014 the estimate for CFPS was $1.37 and CFPS was $0.66.
The Return on Equity was generally between 13% and 20% prior to 2008. It has only broke 10% once since then. The ROE for 2014 was 6.6% with a 5 year median also of 6.6%. For 2014 the comprehensive income ROE was 7% with a 5 year median of 7%. The ROE on comprehensive income has been better or worse than the ROE on net income with a 5 year variance of just 0.1%.
For the last 2 years the debt ratios have been very good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 3.63, the Debt Ratio was 2.60 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios were 1.63 and 0.63. However, these ratios were not good prior to 3 year ago. In 2011 the Liquidity Ratio was 0.67 (with cash flow after dividend added it, it was just 0.71). The Debt Ratio in 2011 was 1.32 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios were 4.12 and 3.12.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Still not doing well. Maybe if they had made better decision in the past, the company would be in better shape today. I know people who live off their dividends like I do, do punish companies that cut dividends. However, living off my dividends I can better afford a cut dividend that a company bankruptcy, but I do think that this company will recover eventually. See my spreadsheet at agf.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, February 5, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
AGF Management Limited is an integrated, global wealth management company, whose principal subsidiaries provide investment management for mutual funds, institutions and corporations, as well as high-net-worth clients; and trust products and services. They sell their products in Canada. Its web site is here AGF Management.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, February 3, 2015
Shaw Communications Inc. 2
I do not own this stock of Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). It was a stock on Investment Reporter's list, a MPL Communications Publication.
When I look at insider trading, I find $2.6M of insider buying and $21.1M of insider selling for net insider selling of $18.5M. There are two classes of shares, Class A shares are voting shares and Class B shares are non-voting shares. The Shaw family owns around 79% of the Class A shares. They also own substantial amount of Class B shares. For example Bradley Shaw owns Class A shares worth around $121.2M and Class B shares worth around $243M.
I looked for a Mission Statement, but could find none. For customers Shaw says it is committed to providing unsurpassed customer service and exceptional customer experiences. For employees Shaw says its culture at Shaw is founded on creating workplaces where our employees want to build their careers. For community, Shaw says it is proud to partner with a number of Canadian organizations focused on protecting and nurturing today's children and youth for a bright, prosperous tomorrow. I could find no statement about Investors.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 13, 14.14 and 15.98. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are similar at 13.53, 15.33 and 17.46. The current P/E Ratio is 16.44 based on a stock price of $29.76 and 2015 EPS estimate of $1.81. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $20.06. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.33, 1.57 and 1.77. The current P/GP Ratios is 1.48 based on a stock price of $29.76. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.20. The current P/B Ratio is 3.01 based on a stock price of $29.76 and BVPS of $9.88. The current P/B Ratio is just 1% off the 10 year median P/B Ratios. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
Since the dividend yields have been steadily increasing, I think that the most interesting dividend yield test is testing the current dividend yield against the 5 year median dividend yield. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.23%. The current dividend yield at 3.98% is some 5.9% lower. Ideally, the time to buy a stock is when the current dividend yield is higher than the 5 year median dividend yield, but 5.9% off is not bad. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is still relatively reasonable.
Note that since the dividend yield has been steadily increasing, the historical average and historical median dividend yields are much lower than the 5 year median dividend yield. They are 2.42% and 0.83%, respectively. By these measures, the stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. I think the stock price is only cheap if the current dividend yield is higher than the historical high dividend yield. For this stock, the current dividend yield is lower than the historical high dividend yield. Note that the historical high dividend yield just occurred in 2013.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a hold. The one year consensus stock price is $29.70. This implies a gain of 3.78% with 3.98% from dividends and a capital loss of 0.20%.
A recent article by David Friend in the National Post says that Shaw's profits decline due to subscription slips and cost of starting Shomi. Lou Schizas of the Globe and Mail suggests that this company has a solid position in the communications space and a good dividend that makes it worthwhile to hold.
Joseph Solitro of the Motley Fool suggests that now might be the time to buy this stock as it might be a turn-around stock. Nelson Smith of the Motley Fool also likes this stock. The Motley Fool's write-ups are interesting as they give a good stock write up and then want you to buy their newsletter to get an even better stock in the same situation. In the first article it is a stock with a better turnaround situation and in the second article, it is an even better long term hold.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is reasonable. Buying a stock below the median price is a good price to pay for a stock. For example, for this stock, the 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.33, 1.57 and 1.77. The current P/GP Ratios is 1.48. Since the median P/GP Ratio is 1.57, a P/GP Ratio of 1.48 says the stock price is below the median price. If you do not have a telecom stock, this might be one to consider. See my spreadsheet at sjr.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, February 02, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Shaw Communications Inc. is a diversified communications company whose core business is providing broadband cable television, Internet, digital phone and satellite direct-to-home services. Industry: Communications & Media (Cable). SJR.B shares are non-voting and the SJR.A shares are voting shares. J.R. Shaw owns 79%. Its web site is here Shaw Communications.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find $2.6M of insider buying and $21.1M of insider selling for net insider selling of $18.5M. There are two classes of shares, Class A shares are voting shares and Class B shares are non-voting shares. The Shaw family owns around 79% of the Class A shares. They also own substantial amount of Class B shares. For example Bradley Shaw owns Class A shares worth around $121.2M and Class B shares worth around $243M.
I looked for a Mission Statement, but could find none. For customers Shaw says it is committed to providing unsurpassed customer service and exceptional customer experiences. For employees Shaw says its culture at Shaw is founded on creating workplaces where our employees want to build their careers. For community, Shaw says it is proud to partner with a number of Canadian organizations focused on protecting and nurturing today's children and youth for a bright, prosperous tomorrow. I could find no statement about Investors.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 13, 14.14 and 15.98. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are similar at 13.53, 15.33 and 17.46. The current P/E Ratio is 16.44 based on a stock price of $29.76 and 2015 EPS estimate of $1.81. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $20.06. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.33, 1.57 and 1.77. The current P/GP Ratios is 1.48 based on a stock price of $29.76. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.20. The current P/B Ratio is 3.01 based on a stock price of $29.76 and BVPS of $9.88. The current P/B Ratio is just 1% off the 10 year median P/B Ratios. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
Since the dividend yields have been steadily increasing, I think that the most interesting dividend yield test is testing the current dividend yield against the 5 year median dividend yield. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.23%. The current dividend yield at 3.98% is some 5.9% lower. Ideally, the time to buy a stock is when the current dividend yield is higher than the 5 year median dividend yield, but 5.9% off is not bad. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is still relatively reasonable.
Note that since the dividend yield has been steadily increasing, the historical average and historical median dividend yields are much lower than the 5 year median dividend yield. They are 2.42% and 0.83%, respectively. By these measures, the stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. I think the stock price is only cheap if the current dividend yield is higher than the historical high dividend yield. For this stock, the current dividend yield is lower than the historical high dividend yield. Note that the historical high dividend yield just occurred in 2013.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a hold. The one year consensus stock price is $29.70. This implies a gain of 3.78% with 3.98% from dividends and a capital loss of 0.20%.
A recent article by David Friend in the National Post says that Shaw's profits decline due to subscription slips and cost of starting Shomi. Lou Schizas of the Globe and Mail suggests that this company has a solid position in the communications space and a good dividend that makes it worthwhile to hold.
Joseph Solitro of the Motley Fool suggests that now might be the time to buy this stock as it might be a turn-around stock. Nelson Smith of the Motley Fool also likes this stock. The Motley Fool's write-ups are interesting as they give a good stock write up and then want you to buy their newsletter to get an even better stock in the same situation. In the first article it is a stock with a better turnaround situation and in the second article, it is an even better long term hold.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is reasonable. Buying a stock below the median price is a good price to pay for a stock. For example, for this stock, the 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.33, 1.57 and 1.77. The current P/GP Ratios is 1.48. Since the median P/GP Ratio is 1.57, a P/GP Ratio of 1.48 says the stock price is below the median price. If you do not have a telecom stock, this might be one to consider. See my spreadsheet at sjr.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, February 02, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Shaw Communications Inc. is a diversified communications company whose core business is providing broadband cable television, Internet, digital phone and satellite direct-to-home services. Industry: Communications & Media (Cable). SJR.B shares are non-voting and the SJR.A shares are voting shares. J.R. Shaw owns 79%. Its web site is here Shaw Communications.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, February 2, 2015
Shaw Communications Inc.
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for February 2015 continue...
I do not own this stock of Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). It was a stock on Investment Reporter's list, a MPL Communications Publication.
This is a dividend growth stock. The dividends grew faster in the past then they do today. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 5.3% and 29.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. When dividends were first paid they were below 1%. The dividends have been in the 4% range since 2009.
What we have here is a dividend growth stock with moderate to good dividends and moderate dividend growth. The dividend yield has been growing and the current dividend yield is 3.78% and it has a 5 year median of 4.23%. The most recent dividend increase was in 2014 and the increase was for 7.7%.
As I have mentioned before, I color code the growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow on my spreadsheet. Red is for low or negative growth. That is growth lower than 3% and into negative growth. Blue is for moderate growth which for me is from 3% to below 8%. Green is for good growth which I define at 8% and above. When I look at the spreadsheet for this company I see lots of green, some blue and a bit of red. (Note: I use these colors for other values. The codes still are for low, moderate and good values, but some rules are different.)
For revenue and earnings I see mostly green but also a bit of blue. Revenue per Share has grown by 7.6% and 9.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For Earnings per Share I get growth of 8.2% and 32.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS growth is a bit volatile, but even using 5 year running averages, EPS growth is at 7.7% and 37% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
For cash flow, I see some green, some blue and some red. Cash Flow per share is at 1.4% and 8.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. It does improve if I use the 5 year running averages and then growth is at 5.7% and 13.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has only been below 10% once in the past 10 years and that is 10 years ago. Prior to 10 years ago, ROE was quite low. The ROE for 2014 is at 17.1% and the 5 year median ROE is 17.1%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is a bit lower with a ROE of 16.2% for 2014 and a 5 year median ROE also at 16.2%.
One thing I do not like about this company is the low Liquidity Ratios. Over the past 10 years the company has needed current cash flow to cover current liabilities. Before that, even with cash flow, the Liquidity Ratio seldom was at 1.00 and above. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is better than most years coming in at 0.95. When you added in Cash Flow after dividends, it becomes 1.85.
The Debt Ratio is good at 1.59 for 2014, but it has been lower and has a 5 year median value of just 1.46. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high but ok at 2.68 and 1.68.
For some reason, analysts' consensus estimates for CFPS for 2015 shows a rise of 248% with CFPS going from $3.30 to $11.50 from 2014 to 2015. However, with the first quarterly financial reports for 2015 in, CFPS rose under 1%. I cannot find out why such a rise in CFPS is suggested.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telecom Stock. See my spreadsheet at sjr.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, February 3, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Shaw Communications Inc. is a diversified communications company whose core business is providing broadband cable television, Internet, digital phone and satellite direct-to-home services. Industry: Communications & Media (Cable). SJR.B shares are non-voting and the SJR.A shares are voting shares. J.R. Shaw owns 79%. Its web site is here Shaw Communications.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). It was a stock on Investment Reporter's list, a MPL Communications Publication.
This is a dividend growth stock. The dividends grew faster in the past then they do today. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 5.3% and 29.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. When dividends were first paid they were below 1%. The dividends have been in the 4% range since 2009.
What we have here is a dividend growth stock with moderate to good dividends and moderate dividend growth. The dividend yield has been growing and the current dividend yield is 3.78% and it has a 5 year median of 4.23%. The most recent dividend increase was in 2014 and the increase was for 7.7%.
As I have mentioned before, I color code the growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow on my spreadsheet. Red is for low or negative growth. That is growth lower than 3% and into negative growth. Blue is for moderate growth which for me is from 3% to below 8%. Green is for good growth which I define at 8% and above. When I look at the spreadsheet for this company I see lots of green, some blue and a bit of red. (Note: I use these colors for other values. The codes still are for low, moderate and good values, but some rules are different.)
For revenue and earnings I see mostly green but also a bit of blue. Revenue per Share has grown by 7.6% and 9.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For Earnings per Share I get growth of 8.2% and 32.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS growth is a bit volatile, but even using 5 year running averages, EPS growth is at 7.7% and 37% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
For cash flow, I see some green, some blue and some red. Cash Flow per share is at 1.4% and 8.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. It does improve if I use the 5 year running averages and then growth is at 5.7% and 13.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has only been below 10% once in the past 10 years and that is 10 years ago. Prior to 10 years ago, ROE was quite low. The ROE for 2014 is at 17.1% and the 5 year median ROE is 17.1%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is a bit lower with a ROE of 16.2% for 2014 and a 5 year median ROE also at 16.2%.
One thing I do not like about this company is the low Liquidity Ratios. Over the past 10 years the company has needed current cash flow to cover current liabilities. Before that, even with cash flow, the Liquidity Ratio seldom was at 1.00 and above. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is better than most years coming in at 0.95. When you added in Cash Flow after dividends, it becomes 1.85.
The Debt Ratio is good at 1.59 for 2014, but it has been lower and has a 5 year median value of just 1.46. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high but ok at 2.68 and 1.68.
For some reason, analysts' consensus estimates for CFPS for 2015 shows a rise of 248% with CFPS going from $3.30 to $11.50 from 2014 to 2015. However, with the first quarterly financial reports for 2015 in, CFPS rose under 1%. I cannot find out why such a rise in CFPS is suggested.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telecom Stock. See my spreadsheet at sjr.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, February 3, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Shaw Communications Inc. is a diversified communications company whose core business is providing broadband cable television, Internet, digital phone and satellite direct-to-home services. Industry: Communications & Media (Cable). SJR.B shares are non-voting and the SJR.A shares are voting shares. J.R. Shaw owns 79%. Its web site is here Shaw Communications.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, January 30, 2015
Valener Inc.
I do not own this stock of Valener Inc. (TSX-VNR, OTC- VNRCF). I was looking for another utility to invest in, in 2009 and I was looking possibly at another pipeline stock. This company has natural gas pipelines in Quebec. I also recognized the name of this company. In 2010 it reorganized and made a public utility stock out of 29% of what was Gas Metro. This makes the valuation of this stock very complex.
It is discouraging that you cannot find out simple facts from the statements and websites. I was looking for the actual number of shares that Valener Inc. holds in Gaz Metro and could not find this. I know from the financial statements that Valener Inc. is buying shares in Gaz Metro and they say how many more, but not the exact current holding. It just says that Valener holds 29% of Gaz Metro and this has not changed since 2010.
Another problem with this stock is that just looking at Valener Inc.'s statements are not enough. You have to look at the statements of the companies they invest in. They seem to only give statements on Gaz Metro.
Gas Metro used to be an Income Trust, but changed to a corporation at the end of 2010. Dividends were decreased just over 19% when it changed to a corporation. However, dividends hit a high in 2004 and have been level or dropping since that time. So prior to 2004, this was a dividend growth stock but it has not been one since. Dividends have decreased by 4.2% and 3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 103% and for CFPS is 86%. The corresponding ratios for the 2014 financial year are 103% for EPS and 83% for CFPS. The DPR for EPS hit a high of 133% in 2012 and is expected to be below 100% in 2015.
Revenue for Gaz Metro hit a peak in 2009 and the revenue just went pass this revenue value in 2014. Revenue is up by 2.4% per year over the past 5 years. However, Revenue per Share is down by 2.2% per share over the past 5 years.
For Valener Inc. income is up by 2.2% and 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, income per share is only up 0.5% and is down by 0.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Also EPS for Valener is down 6% and 3.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Valener has much better debt ratios than Gaz Metro. Gaz Metro Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is 1.20, but the 5 year median is just 0.84. Gaz Metro Debt Ratio for 2014 is 1.32 and the 5 year median is 1.35. For Valener, the Liquidity Ratios for 2014 is 1.41 and it has a 5 year median of 1.16. The Debt Ratio for 2014 is 7.98 and its 5 year median ratio is 7.98.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 15.69, 16.16 and 16.63. The corresponding 10 year ratios are similar. The current P/E Ratio is 16.60 based on a stock price of $16.93 and 2015 EPS estimate of $1.02. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is still relatively reasonable, but in the higher part of the reasonableness range.
I get a Graham Price of $19.28. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.90, 0.99 and 1.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.88 based on a stock price of $16.93. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 10 year Median Price/Book Value per Share ratios is 1.82. The current P/B Ratio at 1.05 based on a BVPS of $16.19 and a stock price of $16.93. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, you have to wonder about the BVPS as it increased in 2010 by 108% when the calculation was based on Valener, and not on Gaz Metro.
The 5 year median, historical average and historical median Dividend Yields are 6.38%, 7.52% and 7.34%. Compared to these dividend yields, the current dividend of 5.91% is down by 7.4%, 21% and 19.5%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable to relatively expensive.
Looking around at what analysts are projecting no one seems to think that the dividend is going to change anytime soon. Neither do they think that the yield is going to change. This basic means they do not expect much change in the stock price either.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $16.80. This implies a total return of 5.14% with 5.91% from dividends and a capital loss of 0.77%.
Brenda Bouw of the Globe and Mail says this stock is stable with a good dividend.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: price is reasonable to expensive. Over the past 5 and 10 years, investors have had a total return of just slightly less than the dividend yield. It looks like analysts are saying this will continue. See my spreadsheet at sis.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Valener owns 29% of Gaz Metro and also owns a stake in the Seigneurie de Beaupré wind power projects located northeast of the city of Québec. Gaz Metro is Quebec's leading natural gas distributor. Its web site is here Valener.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
It is discouraging that you cannot find out simple facts from the statements and websites. I was looking for the actual number of shares that Valener Inc. holds in Gaz Metro and could not find this. I know from the financial statements that Valener Inc. is buying shares in Gaz Metro and they say how many more, but not the exact current holding. It just says that Valener holds 29% of Gaz Metro and this has not changed since 2010.
Another problem with this stock is that just looking at Valener Inc.'s statements are not enough. You have to look at the statements of the companies they invest in. They seem to only give statements on Gaz Metro.
Gas Metro used to be an Income Trust, but changed to a corporation at the end of 2010. Dividends were decreased just over 19% when it changed to a corporation. However, dividends hit a high in 2004 and have been level or dropping since that time. So prior to 2004, this was a dividend growth stock but it has not been one since. Dividends have decreased by 4.2% and 3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 103% and for CFPS is 86%. The corresponding ratios for the 2014 financial year are 103% for EPS and 83% for CFPS. The DPR for EPS hit a high of 133% in 2012 and is expected to be below 100% in 2015.
Revenue for Gaz Metro hit a peak in 2009 and the revenue just went pass this revenue value in 2014. Revenue is up by 2.4% per year over the past 5 years. However, Revenue per Share is down by 2.2% per share over the past 5 years.
For Valener Inc. income is up by 2.2% and 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, income per share is only up 0.5% and is down by 0.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Also EPS for Valener is down 6% and 3.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Valener has much better debt ratios than Gaz Metro. Gaz Metro Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is 1.20, but the 5 year median is just 0.84. Gaz Metro Debt Ratio for 2014 is 1.32 and the 5 year median is 1.35. For Valener, the Liquidity Ratios for 2014 is 1.41 and it has a 5 year median of 1.16. The Debt Ratio for 2014 is 7.98 and its 5 year median ratio is 7.98.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 15.69, 16.16 and 16.63. The corresponding 10 year ratios are similar. The current P/E Ratio is 16.60 based on a stock price of $16.93 and 2015 EPS estimate of $1.02. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is still relatively reasonable, but in the higher part of the reasonableness range.
I get a Graham Price of $19.28. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.90, 0.99 and 1.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.88 based on a stock price of $16.93. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 10 year Median Price/Book Value per Share ratios is 1.82. The current P/B Ratio at 1.05 based on a BVPS of $16.19 and a stock price of $16.93. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, you have to wonder about the BVPS as it increased in 2010 by 108% when the calculation was based on Valener, and not on Gaz Metro.
The 5 year median, historical average and historical median Dividend Yields are 6.38%, 7.52% and 7.34%. Compared to these dividend yields, the current dividend of 5.91% is down by 7.4%, 21% and 19.5%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable to relatively expensive.
Looking around at what analysts are projecting no one seems to think that the dividend is going to change anytime soon. Neither do they think that the yield is going to change. This basic means they do not expect much change in the stock price either.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $16.80. This implies a total return of 5.14% with 5.91% from dividends and a capital loss of 0.77%.
Brenda Bouw of the Globe and Mail says this stock is stable with a good dividend.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: price is reasonable to expensive. Over the past 5 and 10 years, investors have had a total return of just slightly less than the dividend yield. It looks like analysts are saying this will continue. See my spreadsheet at sis.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Valener owns 29% of Gaz Metro and also owns a stake in the Seigneurie de Beaupré wind power projects located northeast of the city of Québec. Gaz Metro is Quebec's leading natural gas distributor. Its web site is here Valener.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Rogers Sugar Inc. 2
I do not own this stock of Rogers Sugar Inc. (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF). This stock was brought to my attention by Dividend Ninja. This company used to be a Unit Trust (TSX-RSI.UN) but it has recently converted to corporation. On change to a corporation, it lowered its dividend.
When I look at insider trading for the past year, I find $0.3M of insider buying and no insider selling. This is a very small amount of insider buying being some 0.06% of the market cap of this stock. In 2014 there was no increase to outstanding shares due to stock options. There have been increases to outstanding shares due to stock options in the past.
There is very little insider ownership with the CEO owing shares worth around $0.6M and the chairman owning shares worth around $0.7M. There are only 5 directors for this company and none of these directors is a women or of a minority group.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.90, 14.79 and 15.62. The corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios are a lot lower at 8.50, 9.71 and 11.10. The thing is that the P/E Ratios increased after this company because a corporation and this is quite common when income trust companies became corporations.
The current P/E Ratio is 13.82 based on a stock price of $4.56 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.33. Using the 5 year range of P/E Ratios, this stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $4.43. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.72, 0.85 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.99. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However note that on an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of less than 1.00 says the stock price is cheap.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.58. The current P/B Ratio at 1.72 is based on a BVPS of $2.65 and a stock price of $4.56. The current P/B Ratio is just 9% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. The stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
(Note that yesterday I was incorrect about the drop in BVPS and it is at 2.8% and 4% over the past 5 and 10 years and not at the 17% and 11% per year I stated. Yesterday's blog has been updated on this point. My spreadsheet had an error.)
Because this company used to be an income trust, there is not much point in doing a test using historical average or historical median dividend yields. For all x-income trust companies, the current dividend yields are considerably lower. However, the 5 year median dividend yield at 6.18% is some 27.7% lower than the current dividend yield of 7.89%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Hold as most of the recommendations are a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $4.56. Since I am dealing with a current stock price of $4.56, the total return over the next 12 months would be 7.89% with 0% from capital gains and 7.89% from dividends.
Brenda Bouw of the Globe and Mail thinks that investors are growing sour on this company. She says that a TD Bank analyst sees a dividend cut in the near future because of this company's challenging outlook.
The company just reported on the first quarter of 2015 today. Revenue is down by 6% compared to the first quarter of 2014. Net income is down by 25% and EPS is down by 23%.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is cheap. Maybe dividend cut risk. See my spreadsheet at rsi.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, January 28, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Rogers Sugar Inc. was established to hold all of the common shares and notes of Lantic Inc. Lantic Inc. is a refiner, processor, distributor and marketer of sugar products in Canada. Its web site is here Rogers Sugar.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading for the past year, I find $0.3M of insider buying and no insider selling. This is a very small amount of insider buying being some 0.06% of the market cap of this stock. In 2014 there was no increase to outstanding shares due to stock options. There have been increases to outstanding shares due to stock options in the past.
There is very little insider ownership with the CEO owing shares worth around $0.6M and the chairman owning shares worth around $0.7M. There are only 5 directors for this company and none of these directors is a women or of a minority group.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.90, 14.79 and 15.62. The corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios are a lot lower at 8.50, 9.71 and 11.10. The thing is that the P/E Ratios increased after this company because a corporation and this is quite common when income trust companies became corporations.
The current P/E Ratio is 13.82 based on a stock price of $4.56 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.33. Using the 5 year range of P/E Ratios, this stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $4.43. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.72, 0.85 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.99. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However note that on an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of less than 1.00 says the stock price is cheap.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.58. The current P/B Ratio at 1.72 is based on a BVPS of $2.65 and a stock price of $4.56. The current P/B Ratio is just 9% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. The stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
(Note that yesterday I was incorrect about the drop in BVPS and it is at 2.8% and 4% over the past 5 and 10 years and not at the 17% and 11% per year I stated. Yesterday's blog has been updated on this point. My spreadsheet had an error.)
Because this company used to be an income trust, there is not much point in doing a test using historical average or historical median dividend yields. For all x-income trust companies, the current dividend yields are considerably lower. However, the 5 year median dividend yield at 6.18% is some 27.7% lower than the current dividend yield of 7.89%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Hold as most of the recommendations are a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $4.56. Since I am dealing with a current stock price of $4.56, the total return over the next 12 months would be 7.89% with 0% from capital gains and 7.89% from dividends.
Brenda Bouw of the Globe and Mail thinks that investors are growing sour on this company. She says that a TD Bank analyst sees a dividend cut in the near future because of this company's challenging outlook.
The company just reported on the first quarter of 2015 today. Revenue is down by 6% compared to the first quarter of 2014. Net income is down by 25% and EPS is down by 23%.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is cheap. Maybe dividend cut risk. See my spreadsheet at rsi.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, January 28, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Rogers Sugar Inc. was established to hold all of the common shares and notes of Lantic Inc. Lantic Inc. is a refiner, processor, distributor and marketer of sugar products in Canada. Its web site is here Rogers Sugar.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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