I own this stock of Barclays Bank PLC ADR (UK-BARC, NYSE-BCS). This was one of my forays into international stock. I bought this stock in 2000 and today, I have 3.26% total return per year, with 5.45% per year from dividends and capital loss of 2.19% per year. This valuation is in US$. This stock was doing well until the 2008 crash.
This stock is rather hard to valuate. I bought the stock off the New York market as an ADR. There are 4 UK shares for each ADR. The financial reports are in UK pounds. My stock is priced in US$ and of course, I really earning money only in CDN$. My spreadsheet on this stock has to deal with all three currencies.
With the 2008 crash, our banks have held up rather well, not so much the European Banks. Dividends initially dropped by 97% in 2009. They are up some 550% but they are still some 81% lower than pre-crash levels. Dividends are paid rather differently on this stock than for most Canadian and US stocks. At the end of the year a dividend is decided that can be paid at the first of the following year. At one time I got two dividends each year, with one in April (the large payment) and a final one in October. They have changed the dividends to 4 times a year with a larger one in March and 3 smaller in the other quarters of the year.
Outstanding shares have increased by 13% per year and 6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased because of Stock Options, Share Issues and conversion of notes into shares. No matter how you look at this stock, there has not been much growth per share values in revenue, earnings or cash flow. Mostly these values have declined. There has been some growth in Book Value per Share at 4.4% and 7.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
For 2012, this bank had an earnings loss. There was positive cash flow if you look at cash flow excluding working capital. Since there was an earnings loss in 2012, there is not a positive ROE. However, one problem I see is that the ROE for 2012 is a negative 0.4%. The ROE for comprehensive income is a negative 1%. This amounts to quite a difference.
The Debt Ratio on this bank is fairly normal at 1.04 although Canadian Banks have been moving this ratio up to 1.06. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 27.81and 26.64 are a lot higher than Canadian Banks, but this bank has had these ratios high like this for a long time. (For example these ratios for the Royal Bank are 20.91and 19.75 which is rather normal for Canadian Banks.)
In Canadian Dollar terms, I have lost money for every 5 year period since 2008. Also I have basically just broken even, at the end of 2012 in CDN$ terms. Not a great showing. I plan to continue to hold this stock for the time being and it will be interesting to see if it can recover. See my spreadsheet at bcs.htm.
One of the largest financial services groups in the United Kingdom, Barclays is engaged in banking, investment banking and asset management worldwide. Its web site is here Barclays.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, April 12, 2013
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Canadian Natural Resources 2
I own this stock of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ). I bought this stock last year when the dividend yield was relatively high. I have not made much money as the stock is only up 1.32%. In quicken I have a 5.21% total return per year. (I bought it in September 2012.) Of the quicken return I have 4.55% from capital gain and 0.66% from dividends. I just bought more shares
When I look at insider trading, I find $9.3M of insider selling and $8.9M of net insider selling (with a minimal amount of insider buying.) Insiders seem to be selling off options. There are a lot of outstanding options for this company. As far as options are concerned, the company is not quite as bad as our banks, but it is getting there. There is also insider ownership.
The CEO has shares worth $69.4M and has options are worth $55M. The CFO has shares worth $24M and has options worth $22.6M. An officer has shares $8.3M and has options worth $4.6M. A director has shares worth $0.2M and has options worth $0.8M. This is just to give you an idea on insider share ownership and option values.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 12.51, 19.28 and 23.53. The current P/E Ratio is 13.38 based on 2013 earnings of $2.43 and current stock price of $32.51. I get a Graham Price of $34.87. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.18 and 1.50. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.93. Both these tests say that the stock price is reasonable.
If you look at the Price/Book Value per Share ratios you get a different story. The 10 year median P/B Ratio is 2.00. The current P/B Ratio is 1.46. The current one is just 73% of the 10 year median ratio. This low current Ratio points to the stock being cheap. (A stock is cheap if the current P/E Ratio is 80% or less than the 10 year median ratio.)
The current dividend yield is 1.54% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 0.72%. The current yield is 113% higher than the 5 year median yield. This says the stock is cheap. (Also, the 10 year median dividend yield is 0.72% and the 10 year high median dividend yield is 1.06%.)
So, my stock testing says that the stock price runs from cheap to reasonable. The thing is that the test that show a reasonable price use estimates and the ones that show that the stock is cheap do not. A lot of dividend investors look to the dividend yield to tell them when to buy a dividend stock. Also, for the P/GP Ratio, a ratio of 0.93, on an absolute basis, says a company is cheap. (A ratio of 0.93 says that the stock price is lower than the Graham Price.)
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The vast majority of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price target is $38.60. This implies that the total return would be 20.18% with 1.54 from dividends and 18.73% from capital gains.
There is an interesting article on this company in the Financial Post suggesting that stock of it and Suncor could surge next year. There is another take on this company at cnq.htm. It talks about estimating CNQ's fair value using discounted earnings plus equity model. (The problem with Seeking Alpha site is that they often do not allow you to go to the 2nd page if you are not a registered user.) You can also get a very nice overview of this stock from the Passive Income Earner blogger.
The reason I bought some of this stock is that it is a good company, it is a dividend growth stock and it is currently quite cheap, relatively. I am buying for the long term. I do not know or care if there will be much of an increase in the stock price by next year. It is good for my portfolio for the long term to buy good companies cheap. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here CDN Natural Resources.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find $9.3M of insider selling and $8.9M of net insider selling (with a minimal amount of insider buying.) Insiders seem to be selling off options. There are a lot of outstanding options for this company. As far as options are concerned, the company is not quite as bad as our banks, but it is getting there. There is also insider ownership.
The CEO has shares worth $69.4M and has options are worth $55M. The CFO has shares worth $24M and has options worth $22.6M. An officer has shares $8.3M and has options worth $4.6M. A director has shares worth $0.2M and has options worth $0.8M. This is just to give you an idea on insider share ownership and option values.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 12.51, 19.28 and 23.53. The current P/E Ratio is 13.38 based on 2013 earnings of $2.43 and current stock price of $32.51. I get a Graham Price of $34.87. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.18 and 1.50. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.93. Both these tests say that the stock price is reasonable.
If you look at the Price/Book Value per Share ratios you get a different story. The 10 year median P/B Ratio is 2.00. The current P/B Ratio is 1.46. The current one is just 73% of the 10 year median ratio. This low current Ratio points to the stock being cheap. (A stock is cheap if the current P/E Ratio is 80% or less than the 10 year median ratio.)
The current dividend yield is 1.54% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 0.72%. The current yield is 113% higher than the 5 year median yield. This says the stock is cheap. (Also, the 10 year median dividend yield is 0.72% and the 10 year high median dividend yield is 1.06%.)
So, my stock testing says that the stock price runs from cheap to reasonable. The thing is that the test that show a reasonable price use estimates and the ones that show that the stock is cheap do not. A lot of dividend investors look to the dividend yield to tell them when to buy a dividend stock. Also, for the P/GP Ratio, a ratio of 0.93, on an absolute basis, says a company is cheap. (A ratio of 0.93 says that the stock price is lower than the Graham Price.)
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The vast majority of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price target is $38.60. This implies that the total return would be 20.18% with 1.54 from dividends and 18.73% from capital gains.
There is an interesting article on this company in the Financial Post suggesting that stock of it and Suncor could surge next year. There is another take on this company at cnq.htm. It talks about estimating CNQ's fair value using discounted earnings plus equity model. (The problem with Seeking Alpha site is that they often do not allow you to go to the 2nd page if you are not a registered user.) You can also get a very nice overview of this stock from the Passive Income Earner blogger.
The reason I bought some of this stock is that it is a good company, it is a dividend growth stock and it is currently quite cheap, relatively. I am buying for the long term. I do not know or care if there will be much of an increase in the stock price by next year. It is good for my portfolio for the long term to buy good companies cheap. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here CDN Natural Resources.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Canadian Natural Resources
On my other blog I am today writing about Cash Flow Statements ...continue...
I own this stock of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ). I have been tracking this stock since 2008. This stock is on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers (see resources) and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices).
It is a dividend growth stock. The 5 year median dividend yield is just 0.72%. The dividend growth rate is 20% per year over the past 5 years and 21% per year over the past 10 years. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios are 14% for earnings and 5% for cash flow. The DPR for 2013 are expected to be higher at 20% for earnings and 8% for cash flow. The current dividend yield is 1.54%. (This is why I bought another 100 shares of this stock today. I do not have much money any longer to buy shares, but this stock is very out of favour at the moment.)
I had bought some shares late last year when the dividend yield was also good. At that time it was 1.32% and 80% above the 5 year median dividend yield. Now the current dividend yield is some 113% above the 5 year median dividend yield. The company has just raised the dividends and the increase is a 19% increase.
As I said above I just bought some of this stock late last year. The stock price is just up 2.5%. I do not expect much in the way of capital gains at the moment. The oil and gas stocks are very out of favour now. However, I am buying this stock for the future.
For shareholders who bought this stock 5 years ago, the total return is negative at 3.75% per year with dividends at .88% per year and a capital loss of 4.62% per year. For shareholders who bought this stock 10 years ago, the total return would be 18.68% per year, with dividends at 1.47% per year and capital gain at 17.21% per year. This is never going to be a great dividend producer; the value of this stock lays in the increase in dividends each year.
The outstanding shares have not really changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to buy backs. Revenue has increased by 5.24% per year and 14.77% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share has increased by 5% and 14.54% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Earnings per Share is down by 6.6% per year over the past 5 years and up by 12.31% over the past 10 years. However, EPS does fluctuate on this stock. If you look at 5 year running averages, EPS is up by 7.17% per year and 17.72% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The problem with looking at just the EPS 5 years ago and 10 years ago, you may not get an adequate picture of earnings over time as the EPS at 5 or 10 year period could be usually low or high compared with surrounding earnings for these periods.
Cash Flow per Share has decreased by 1.57% per year over the past 5 years and increased by 9.98% per year over the past 10 years. Here again you get a different picture if you look at 5 year running averages. With the 5 year running averages, the CFPS has increased by 6.18% and 14.97% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Book Value per Share has increased by 12.50% and 17.20% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
When you look at Return on Equity for 2012 it is rather low at 7.8%. The ROE on comprehensive income is slightly better, but still low at 7.9%. 2012 was not a great year for this stock. Canadian oil is relatively cheap at present.
The Liquidity Ratio on this stock has never been great. The current one is just 0.48. If you exclude the current portion of the long term debt the Liquidity Ratio rises to just 0.63. This means that current assets cannot cover current liability. The company is relying on cash flow to pay current debt. If you look at the current Liquidity Ratio with cash flow after dividends, the ratio rises to 1.93, a very good value.
The Debt Ratio (comparing total assets and total liabilities) you get a very good ratio of 1.98. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.02 and 1.02.
No matter how much some people want us to get off oil and especially oil from the oil sands; this is not going to happen anytime soon. I know that there are problems in getting Canadian oil to market because of the lack of pipelines. If it is not by pipelines, oil will be shipped somehow. I just saw the other day a train that must have had at least 100 oil tanker cars passing through Toronto, just north of where I live. I read the other say that Warren Buffet is invested in a railway company that has thousands of oil tanker cars on order.
I think that we will get off oil at some point, but not today. This is, of course, a risky stock because it is a resource stock. I do not invest much in resource stocks, but could not resist a good stock at relatively cheap prices that has such great dividend increases. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here CDN Natural Resources.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ). I have been tracking this stock since 2008. This stock is on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers (see resources) and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices).
It is a dividend growth stock. The 5 year median dividend yield is just 0.72%. The dividend growth rate is 20% per year over the past 5 years and 21% per year over the past 10 years. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios are 14% for earnings and 5% for cash flow. The DPR for 2013 are expected to be higher at 20% for earnings and 8% for cash flow. The current dividend yield is 1.54%. (This is why I bought another 100 shares of this stock today. I do not have much money any longer to buy shares, but this stock is very out of favour at the moment.)
I had bought some shares late last year when the dividend yield was also good. At that time it was 1.32% and 80% above the 5 year median dividend yield. Now the current dividend yield is some 113% above the 5 year median dividend yield. The company has just raised the dividends and the increase is a 19% increase.
As I said above I just bought some of this stock late last year. The stock price is just up 2.5%. I do not expect much in the way of capital gains at the moment. The oil and gas stocks are very out of favour now. However, I am buying this stock for the future.
For shareholders who bought this stock 5 years ago, the total return is negative at 3.75% per year with dividends at .88% per year and a capital loss of 4.62% per year. For shareholders who bought this stock 10 years ago, the total return would be 18.68% per year, with dividends at 1.47% per year and capital gain at 17.21% per year. This is never going to be a great dividend producer; the value of this stock lays in the increase in dividends each year.
The outstanding shares have not really changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to buy backs. Revenue has increased by 5.24% per year and 14.77% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share has increased by 5% and 14.54% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Earnings per Share is down by 6.6% per year over the past 5 years and up by 12.31% over the past 10 years. However, EPS does fluctuate on this stock. If you look at 5 year running averages, EPS is up by 7.17% per year and 17.72% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The problem with looking at just the EPS 5 years ago and 10 years ago, you may not get an adequate picture of earnings over time as the EPS at 5 or 10 year period could be usually low or high compared with surrounding earnings for these periods.
Cash Flow per Share has decreased by 1.57% per year over the past 5 years and increased by 9.98% per year over the past 10 years. Here again you get a different picture if you look at 5 year running averages. With the 5 year running averages, the CFPS has increased by 6.18% and 14.97% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Book Value per Share has increased by 12.50% and 17.20% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
When you look at Return on Equity for 2012 it is rather low at 7.8%. The ROE on comprehensive income is slightly better, but still low at 7.9%. 2012 was not a great year for this stock. Canadian oil is relatively cheap at present.
The Liquidity Ratio on this stock has never been great. The current one is just 0.48. If you exclude the current portion of the long term debt the Liquidity Ratio rises to just 0.63. This means that current assets cannot cover current liability. The company is relying on cash flow to pay current debt. If you look at the current Liquidity Ratio with cash flow after dividends, the ratio rises to 1.93, a very good value.
The Debt Ratio (comparing total assets and total liabilities) you get a very good ratio of 1.98. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.02 and 1.02.
No matter how much some people want us to get off oil and especially oil from the oil sands; this is not going to happen anytime soon. I know that there are problems in getting Canadian oil to market because of the lack of pipelines. If it is not by pipelines, oil will be shipped somehow. I just saw the other day a train that must have had at least 100 oil tanker cars passing through Toronto, just north of where I live. I read the other say that Warren Buffet is invested in a railway company that has thousands of oil tanker cars on order.
I think that we will get off oil at some point, but not today. This is, of course, a risky stock because it is a resource stock. I do not invest much in resource stocks, but could not resist a good stock at relatively cheap prices that has such great dividend increases. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here CDN Natural Resources.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Artis REIT
I do not own this stock (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF). It has been mentioned recently as a good REIT to own. A number of people I correspond with mentioned this REIT. However, my first view of it is not positive. Distributions have only increased by 0.57% over the past 5 years. This is extremely low and way below inflation. This is one reason I would not buy this stock.
I looked at the tax information and the distributions are listed as Return of Capital at 100%. Sometimes return of capital is really return of capital. You may be getting a good yield, but if it is return of capital, this would not be a reason to buy this company. In fact it is a reason to avoid it.
Has it made money for its shareholders? Well, over the last 5 years the total return is 7.81% per year with 0.76% per year from capital gain and 7.05% per year from distributions. If you look back to the stocks beginning, the total return is a great 30.96% per year. However, if you go back 7 rather than 8 years to the beginning, the total return is lower at 9.6% per year with 2.12% from capital gain and 7.47% from distributions. The conclusion is that most of the total return is distributions for this stock.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a Buy recommendation. The 12 month consensus stock price is $17.80. This implies a total return of 18.30% with 6.77% from Dividends and 11.53% from capital gains. It is obvious that analysts do expect capital gains in the future on this stock.
This blogger gives a map of REIT holdings at here at Dividend Gangster. Avrex Money site has compiled a list of all Canadian REITs. They rank this REIT first. Roger Conrad thinks this stock is a Buy.
There are a few of things that I do not like about this stock. The first is that until just recently, this stock has not made a profit. I tend not to like stocks that do not make a profit. Another thing is the increase in outstanding shares has been really high. Outstanding shares have increased over the past 5 years is 30% per year , and over the past 6 years at 40% per year and even higher if you look further back.
Another thing I do not like is the lack of an increase in distributions. Some analysts feel that there will be a modest increase in distributions in 2014, with a larger one in 2015. However, let's not pretend that anyone can see what the future really holds.
The final thing I do not like is the Dividend Payout Ratios. I do understand the use of FFO and AFFO to judge payout ratios rather than earnings. So that is fine. However, I really do not like the DPRs as they apply to cash flow for this stock. The 5 year median DPR for cash for is 102%. The problem I see with FFO and AFFO is that different people seem to calculate them differently and the calculations seem to change over time. I can go along with looking at DPR for FFO and AFFO instead of earnings, but I cannot go along with looking at them and disregard the DPR for cash flow. See my spreadsheet at ax.htm.
Artis REIT's portfolio is comprised of industrial, retail, and office space in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Artis.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I looked at the tax information and the distributions are listed as Return of Capital at 100%. Sometimes return of capital is really return of capital. You may be getting a good yield, but if it is return of capital, this would not be a reason to buy this company. In fact it is a reason to avoid it.
Has it made money for its shareholders? Well, over the last 5 years the total return is 7.81% per year with 0.76% per year from capital gain and 7.05% per year from distributions. If you look back to the stocks beginning, the total return is a great 30.96% per year. However, if you go back 7 rather than 8 years to the beginning, the total return is lower at 9.6% per year with 2.12% from capital gain and 7.47% from distributions. The conclusion is that most of the total return is distributions for this stock.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a Buy recommendation. The 12 month consensus stock price is $17.80. This implies a total return of 18.30% with 6.77% from Dividends and 11.53% from capital gains. It is obvious that analysts do expect capital gains in the future on this stock.
This blogger gives a map of REIT holdings at here at Dividend Gangster. Avrex Money site has compiled a list of all Canadian REITs. They rank this REIT first. Roger Conrad thinks this stock is a Buy.
There are a few of things that I do not like about this stock. The first is that until just recently, this stock has not made a profit. I tend not to like stocks that do not make a profit. Another thing is the increase in outstanding shares has been really high. Outstanding shares have increased over the past 5 years is 30% per year , and over the past 6 years at 40% per year and even higher if you look further back.
Another thing I do not like is the lack of an increase in distributions. Some analysts feel that there will be a modest increase in distributions in 2014, with a larger one in 2015. However, let's not pretend that anyone can see what the future really holds.
The final thing I do not like is the Dividend Payout Ratios. I do understand the use of FFO and AFFO to judge payout ratios rather than earnings. So that is fine. However, I really do not like the DPRs as they apply to cash flow for this stock. The 5 year median DPR for cash for is 102%. The problem I see with FFO and AFFO is that different people seem to calculate them differently and the calculations seem to change over time. I can go along with looking at DPR for FFO and AFFO instead of earnings, but I cannot go along with looking at them and disregard the DPR for cash flow. See my spreadsheet at ax.htm.
Artis REIT's portfolio is comprised of industrial, retail, and office space in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Artis.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, April 8, 2013
Contrans Group Inc
On my other blog I am today writing about the Oil Sands...continue...
I do not own this stock of Contrans Group Inc. (TSX-CSS, OTC-CTFIF). I got this off an article in the Globe and Mail called "15 dividend stocks where payouts are expected to grow". This number cruncher article was looking for companies with earnings growth over the last 12 months and a decent Dividend Payout Ratio.
There were two stocks on the list that I have never heard of. This is one of them. I first checked into Contrans Group's dividends First of all it has a nice current dividend yield of 3.95%. Next I looked at its history in regards to dividends. What I found out is that it used to be an Income Trust company and had much higher dividends in the past.
When this company switched to a corporation it reduced dividends by 75% between 2009 and 2010. However, in 2011 they raised the dividend by 25%. Dividends were kept at the new rate throughout 2012. They again raised the dividend 25% in 2013.
Another thing to look at is whether or not shareholders have made any money on this stock. The answer to that question is yes, if we look at values to the end of 2012. However, most of the money was made in distributions or dividends, and very little in capital gains. The 5 and 10 years total return is 8.08% and 13.21% per year. The portion attributable to dividends is 6.92% and 11.81% per year. Capital gains were only at1.16% and 1.40% per year over these periods.
A couple of things I want to mention. The first thing is that the stock seems very volatile. The other thing is that since dividends are much lower, will total return be low in the future? Also, the current stock price ($12.66) is lower than it was 7 years ago in 2006.
I filled in some figures on my spreadsheet to complete 5 and 10 years figures to 2012 (the last financial year published). What basically shows up is that Revenue, Earnings and cash flow over the past 5 years is moving down.
Analysts seem to expect that this 2013 will be a good year for this company. However, they do not expect a good year in 2014. The stock has been moving up lately and the P/E of 13.61 based on 2013 earnings of $0.93 and a current stock price of $12.66. This is higher than the 5 year high median P/E Ratio of 12.05 and would therefore suggest that the stock price is rather high. (The 5 year low and median P/E Ratios are 9.94 and 10.99.)
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I see Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $12.30. This implies a 12 month total return of 1.18%, with 4.95% from dividends and 2.84% capital loss.
The insider trading report shows minimal insider buying and $.07M of insider selling. The company is also buying back shares for cancellation. One good thing to note is that the CEO owns $41M in shares. He has no options. There are options granted, but not many.
Dividend increases are a little inconsistent, but they are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently around 50% for earnings and 26% for cash flow. These DPRs are fine. I must admit I rather see more balance between the capital gains and dividends. This may change for this company as earnings grow. It is a company worth following. See my spreadsheet at css.htm.
Contrans Group Inc. (Contrans) is engaged in freight transportation. It provides freight transportation services to shippers located in Canada, as well as in the eastern, mid-western and southern United States. Its web site is here Contrans.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Contrans Group Inc. (TSX-CSS, OTC-CTFIF). I got this off an article in the Globe and Mail called "15 dividend stocks where payouts are expected to grow". This number cruncher article was looking for companies with earnings growth over the last 12 months and a decent Dividend Payout Ratio.
There were two stocks on the list that I have never heard of. This is one of them. I first checked into Contrans Group's dividends First of all it has a nice current dividend yield of 3.95%. Next I looked at its history in regards to dividends. What I found out is that it used to be an Income Trust company and had much higher dividends in the past.
When this company switched to a corporation it reduced dividends by 75% between 2009 and 2010. However, in 2011 they raised the dividend by 25%. Dividends were kept at the new rate throughout 2012. They again raised the dividend 25% in 2013.
Another thing to look at is whether or not shareholders have made any money on this stock. The answer to that question is yes, if we look at values to the end of 2012. However, most of the money was made in distributions or dividends, and very little in capital gains. The 5 and 10 years total return is 8.08% and 13.21% per year. The portion attributable to dividends is 6.92% and 11.81% per year. Capital gains were only at1.16% and 1.40% per year over these periods.
A couple of things I want to mention. The first thing is that the stock seems very volatile. The other thing is that since dividends are much lower, will total return be low in the future? Also, the current stock price ($12.66) is lower than it was 7 years ago in 2006.
I filled in some figures on my spreadsheet to complete 5 and 10 years figures to 2012 (the last financial year published). What basically shows up is that Revenue, Earnings and cash flow over the past 5 years is moving down.
Analysts seem to expect that this 2013 will be a good year for this company. However, they do not expect a good year in 2014. The stock has been moving up lately and the P/E of 13.61 based on 2013 earnings of $0.93 and a current stock price of $12.66. This is higher than the 5 year high median P/E Ratio of 12.05 and would therefore suggest that the stock price is rather high. (The 5 year low and median P/E Ratios are 9.94 and 10.99.)
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I see Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $12.30. This implies a 12 month total return of 1.18%, with 4.95% from dividends and 2.84% capital loss.
The insider trading report shows minimal insider buying and $.07M of insider selling. The company is also buying back shares for cancellation. One good thing to note is that the CEO owns $41M in shares. He has no options. There are options granted, but not many.
Dividend increases are a little inconsistent, but they are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently around 50% for earnings and 26% for cash flow. These DPRs are fine. I must admit I rather see more balance between the capital gains and dividends. This may change for this company as earnings grow. It is a company worth following. See my spreadsheet at css.htm.
Contrans Group Inc. (Contrans) is engaged in freight transportation. It provides freight transportation services to shippers located in Canada, as well as in the eastern, mid-western and southern United States. Its web site is here Contrans.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, April 5, 2013
Canam Group Inc
I do not own this of Canam Group Inc. (TSX-CAM, OTC-CNMGA), but I did for a short while between 2011 and 2013. I bought this at the end part of 2011 because I thought that the market had gone overboard in punishing the stock because of a dividend cut and the company was having a tough time. I thought I could make a few thousand dollars for my RRIF account and that is what I did. I sold my stock in March of this year.
Companies that pay dividends get hit especially hard when they cut or delete dividends. However, I think that the company acted appropriately. It will probably start paying dividends again, but it is hard to say when this will happen. When they cut dividends they were not earning any money. However, they started to earn money again last year and are expected to earn money both this year and next.
The other problem with 2011 was not only did they not earning any money, but they also had a negative cash flow. Cash Flow was again positive in 2012 and is expected to be positive over the next couple of year also.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.63% over the past 10 years and decreased by 3.16% over the past 5 years. Shares have increased when the company has bought shares for employees and have decreased when the company has bought shares on the open market.
Revenue has not grown over the past 5 and 10 years, but it has not declined much either. The company really has not recovered fully from 2008 and the stock is down some 14.81% per year over the past 5 years. However, the total return over the past 10 years is 3.69% per year with 1.57% from dividends and 1.12% from capital gains.
ROE has not been very good over the past few years. However, the debt ratios are quite good, with Liquidity Ratio currently at 2.28 and the Debt Ratio at 1.82. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are also fine at 2.22 and 1.22, respectively.
When I look at insider trading I find a minimal amount of insider selling and no insider buying. There does not seem to be much in the way of stock options, but there is insider ownership. The CEO has shares worth $1M and has no options. The CFO has a few shares and no stock options. An officer owns shares worth $59M which is some 16% of the outstanding shares. I.A. Michael Investment Counsel Ltd owns shares worth some $47M and this is some 13% of the outstanding shares.
There are a few analysts following this stock and analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold with most recommendations being a Buy and the consensus recommendation being a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $9.10. This implies a total return and capital gains of 13.75%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 9.90, 12.43 and 14.95. The current P/E ratio is 14.81 based on 2013 earnings of $0.54 and a current stock price of $8.00. The current Graham price is $10.26. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.48, 0.66 and 0.90. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.78. Both these tests show the stock price to be reasonable, but a little high.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 0.98. The current P/B Ratio is 0.92. The current P/B Ratio is 93% of the 10 year median Ratio. This test shows that the stock price is reasonable. (To be cheap, the current ratio would have to be only 80% of the 10 year median Ratio.) However, since the P/B Ratio is less than 1.00, this implies that on an absolute basis the stock price is cheap. (The P/GP Ratio being less than 1.00 also implies the same thing.)
I think that this stock is reasonably priced. However, the easy money from its recent problems has already been made. See my spreadsheet at cam.htm.
Canam Group specializes in the design and fabrication of construction products and solutions for the commercial, industrial, institutional, multi-unit residential, and bridge and highway infrastructure markets. This company has offices in Canada, US, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, India, Romania France and China. Its web site is here Canam.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Companies that pay dividends get hit especially hard when they cut or delete dividends. However, I think that the company acted appropriately. It will probably start paying dividends again, but it is hard to say when this will happen. When they cut dividends they were not earning any money. However, they started to earn money again last year and are expected to earn money both this year and next.
The other problem with 2011 was not only did they not earning any money, but they also had a negative cash flow. Cash Flow was again positive in 2012 and is expected to be positive over the next couple of year also.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.63% over the past 10 years and decreased by 3.16% over the past 5 years. Shares have increased when the company has bought shares for employees and have decreased when the company has bought shares on the open market.
Revenue has not grown over the past 5 and 10 years, but it has not declined much either. The company really has not recovered fully from 2008 and the stock is down some 14.81% per year over the past 5 years. However, the total return over the past 10 years is 3.69% per year with 1.57% from dividends and 1.12% from capital gains.
ROE has not been very good over the past few years. However, the debt ratios are quite good, with Liquidity Ratio currently at 2.28 and the Debt Ratio at 1.82. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are also fine at 2.22 and 1.22, respectively.
When I look at insider trading I find a minimal amount of insider selling and no insider buying. There does not seem to be much in the way of stock options, but there is insider ownership. The CEO has shares worth $1M and has no options. The CFO has a few shares and no stock options. An officer owns shares worth $59M which is some 16% of the outstanding shares. I.A. Michael Investment Counsel Ltd owns shares worth some $47M and this is some 13% of the outstanding shares.
There are a few analysts following this stock and analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold with most recommendations being a Buy and the consensus recommendation being a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $9.10. This implies a total return and capital gains of 13.75%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 9.90, 12.43 and 14.95. The current P/E ratio is 14.81 based on 2013 earnings of $0.54 and a current stock price of $8.00. The current Graham price is $10.26. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.48, 0.66 and 0.90. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.78. Both these tests show the stock price to be reasonable, but a little high.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 0.98. The current P/B Ratio is 0.92. The current P/B Ratio is 93% of the 10 year median Ratio. This test shows that the stock price is reasonable. (To be cheap, the current ratio would have to be only 80% of the 10 year median Ratio.) However, since the P/B Ratio is less than 1.00, this implies that on an absolute basis the stock price is cheap. (The P/GP Ratio being less than 1.00 also implies the same thing.)
I think that this stock is reasonably priced. However, the easy money from its recent problems has already been made. See my spreadsheet at cam.htm.
Canam Group specializes in the design and fabrication of construction products and solutions for the commercial, industrial, institutional, multi-unit residential, and bridge and highway infrastructure markets. This company has offices in Canada, US, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, India, Romania France and China. Its web site is here Canam.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, April 4, 2013
Canadian Tire Corp 2
On my other blog I am today writing about Proxies ...continue...
I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC- CDNAF). I first bought this stock in 2000 and then more in 2009 and 2010. I have made a total return of 10.09% per year on this stock, with 8.4% from capital gain and 1.69% from dividends. I made most of this return on the stock I bought in 2000.
When I look at insider trading I find some $26.1M of insider selling and $8.8M of Insider Buying. The net selling is at $17.3M. All insiders' selling is by the CFO and he seems to be selling off some of his non-voting Class A shares. Problem is you never really know why people sell shares. They could just need the money.
The CEO has Class A shares worth $1.9Mand has options are worth $55.9M. The CFO has Class A shares worth $61M and Common (voting) share worth $36.3M and has options worth $7.8M. CTC Dealers own $58M of Class A shares and $60.5M of Common shares. They have some 20% of the Common Shares. Martha Gardiner Billes has almost 62% of the Common shares. There is a lot of insider ownership.
Sun Life also owns substantial amount of Class A shares worth around $169M. Generally the Common (voting) shares sell at a premium to the Class A Shares. That premium is current running around $15.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios of 9.41, 11.12 and 12.26. The current P/E Ratio is 10.68. I get a Graham Price of $94.00. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.68, 0.81 and 1.02. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.76. Both these tests suggest a reasonable stock price.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 1.22. The current P/B Ratio is some 90% of the 10 year median ratio and this suggests a reasonable stock price.
The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 1.75%. The current dividend yield is 1.96% a value around 12% higher. It generally signals a good stock price when the current Dividend Yield is higher than the 5 year median Dividend Yield. However it is only 12% higher so the price looks more reasonable than cheap.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. (This is the most common configuration for analysts' recommendations.) The 12 month consensus stock price is $78.60. This implies a total return of 11.94% with 1.96% from dividends and 9.98% from capital gains.
Of course the elephant in the room is that recent fall in the TSX. It is also interesting that the S&P500 is doing better than the TSX as it did not fall as much as the TSX yesterday and it was up a bit today. Are stocks going to get a lot cheaper soon? I do not know. We certainly are nowhere near solving the debt crisis. However, it is not May yet, so prices may hold up for a bit longer.
This is considered a growth stock. It has a low dividend yield, with a 5 year median dividend yield of 1.75%. The dividend increases are good with 10 year growth in dividend at 11.6%. Dividend Payout Ratios are good at 19% for earnings and 9% for cash flow. This would appear to be a good growth stock at a reasonable price. See my spreadsheet at ctc.htm.
Canadian Tire Corp engages in retail sales, financial services and petroleum sales. They own Canadian Tire Store, Gas Outlets, Parts Source Stores and Mark's Work Warehouse. The Canadian Tire stores offer a unique range of automotive, sports and leisure and home products. The company is controlled by the Billes family who own most of the voting shares. Its web site is here Canadian Tire.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC- CDNAF). I first bought this stock in 2000 and then more in 2009 and 2010. I have made a total return of 10.09% per year on this stock, with 8.4% from capital gain and 1.69% from dividends. I made most of this return on the stock I bought in 2000.
When I look at insider trading I find some $26.1M of insider selling and $8.8M of Insider Buying. The net selling is at $17.3M. All insiders' selling is by the CFO and he seems to be selling off some of his non-voting Class A shares. Problem is you never really know why people sell shares. They could just need the money.
The CEO has Class A shares worth $1.9Mand has options are worth $55.9M. The CFO has Class A shares worth $61M and Common (voting) share worth $36.3M and has options worth $7.8M. CTC Dealers own $58M of Class A shares and $60.5M of Common shares. They have some 20% of the Common Shares. Martha Gardiner Billes has almost 62% of the Common shares. There is a lot of insider ownership.
Sun Life also owns substantial amount of Class A shares worth around $169M. Generally the Common (voting) shares sell at a premium to the Class A Shares. That premium is current running around $15.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios of 9.41, 11.12 and 12.26. The current P/E Ratio is 10.68. I get a Graham Price of $94.00. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.68, 0.81 and 1.02. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.76. Both these tests suggest a reasonable stock price.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 1.22. The current P/B Ratio is some 90% of the 10 year median ratio and this suggests a reasonable stock price.
The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 1.75%. The current dividend yield is 1.96% a value around 12% higher. It generally signals a good stock price when the current Dividend Yield is higher than the 5 year median Dividend Yield. However it is only 12% higher so the price looks more reasonable than cheap.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. (This is the most common configuration for analysts' recommendations.) The 12 month consensus stock price is $78.60. This implies a total return of 11.94% with 1.96% from dividends and 9.98% from capital gains.
Of course the elephant in the room is that recent fall in the TSX. It is also interesting that the S&P500 is doing better than the TSX as it did not fall as much as the TSX yesterday and it was up a bit today. Are stocks going to get a lot cheaper soon? I do not know. We certainly are nowhere near solving the debt crisis. However, it is not May yet, so prices may hold up for a bit longer.
This is considered a growth stock. It has a low dividend yield, with a 5 year median dividend yield of 1.75%. The dividend increases are good with 10 year growth in dividend at 11.6%. Dividend Payout Ratios are good at 19% for earnings and 9% for cash flow. This would appear to be a good growth stock at a reasonable price. See my spreadsheet at ctc.htm.
Canadian Tire Corp engages in retail sales, financial services and petroleum sales. They own Canadian Tire Store, Gas Outlets, Parts Source Stores and Mark's Work Warehouse. The Canadian Tire stores offer a unique range of automotive, sports and leisure and home products. The company is controlled by the Billes family who own most of the voting shares. Its web site is here Canadian Tire.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Canadian Tire Corp
I have finished loading up my RRSP/RRIF accounts with cash for withdrawals over the next few years, so I am ready for the next crash. I had a bit of extra money after selling off low dividend stocks in my RRSP account, so I bought some more Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC). The current yield on this stock is 3.56%.
I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC- CDNAF). I first bought this stock in 2000 and then more in 2009 and 2010. The later purchases were for my trading account. This stock is more suited for a trading account then an RRSP type account because the dividend rate is low. The 5 year median is just 1.75%.
This stock may have a low dividend rate for the dividend increases are good. Over the past 5 and 10 years, the dividends have increased by 10% and 11.6%, respectively. The last increase was in 2013 and that increase was for 16.7%. This is a consumer discretionary stock, so the dividend increases can vary a lot.
I have made a total return of 10.09% per year on this stock, with 8.4% from capital gain and 1.69% from dividends. I made most of this return on the stock I bought in 2000. Of you look just at the later purchases, I have made only 5.94% per year, with 1.67% from dividends and 4.27% from capital gains. I expect that over the longer term I will do better on these purchases.
The last 5 years have not been good for investors in this stock. Basically, people that invested 5 years ago have broken even on this stock with 1.33% from dividends and a capital loss of 1.33%. The 10 year return is much better at 9.5%, with 1.6% from dividends and 7.9% from capital gain. This is a consumer discretionary stock, so you should expect a decent return over the longer term, but not so much in the short term.
The number of outstanding shares have decreased by 0.8% over the past 5 years and increased by .16% over the past 10 years. These are just marginal changes. The outstanding shares have increased due to stock options and DRIP and decreased due to stock buy backs.
Revenue has increased by 5.8% and 6.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has increased by 5.9% and 6.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is not a great increase but it is decent.
Earnings per Share have grown by 5.6% and 9.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has increase 17% and 9.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Book Value per Share has increased by 9.1% and 8.4% per year. So the company has done ok.
The Return on Equity for this stock mostly runs at 10% or better. It has a 5 year median ROE of 10.5% and an ROE of 10.5% for the financial year ending in 2012. The ROE on Comprehensive Income for 2012 is close to the ROE on Net Income. That ROE is 10%. The 5 year median ROE on Comprehensive income is 10.9%. The Net Income and Comprehensive Income have varied over the years.
This stock has two types of stocks, as there are voting and non-voting shares. The Type A stock, largely sold on the TSX, is the non-voting shares. There is a large insider ownership. Often this results in good debt ratios and this stock is no exception.
The current Liquidity Ratio is quite good at 1.68. The current Debt Ratio is also good at 1.57. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios, while not that low are fine at 2.77 and 1.77.
Over the longer term, this stock should be a solid performer. You would buy it for diversification and for the increasing dividend. See my spreadsheet at ctc.htm.
Canadian Tire Corp engages in retail sales, financial services and petroleum sales. They own Canadian Tire Store, Gas Outlets, Parts Source Stores and Mark's Work Warehouse. The Canadian Tire stores offer a unique range of automotive, sports and leisure and home products. The company is controlled by the Billes family who own most of the voting shares. Its web site is here Canadian Tire.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC- CDNAF). I first bought this stock in 2000 and then more in 2009 and 2010. The later purchases were for my trading account. This stock is more suited for a trading account then an RRSP type account because the dividend rate is low. The 5 year median is just 1.75%.
This stock may have a low dividend rate for the dividend increases are good. Over the past 5 and 10 years, the dividends have increased by 10% and 11.6%, respectively. The last increase was in 2013 and that increase was for 16.7%. This is a consumer discretionary stock, so the dividend increases can vary a lot.
I have made a total return of 10.09% per year on this stock, with 8.4% from capital gain and 1.69% from dividends. I made most of this return on the stock I bought in 2000. Of you look just at the later purchases, I have made only 5.94% per year, with 1.67% from dividends and 4.27% from capital gains. I expect that over the longer term I will do better on these purchases.
The last 5 years have not been good for investors in this stock. Basically, people that invested 5 years ago have broken even on this stock with 1.33% from dividends and a capital loss of 1.33%. The 10 year return is much better at 9.5%, with 1.6% from dividends and 7.9% from capital gain. This is a consumer discretionary stock, so you should expect a decent return over the longer term, but not so much in the short term.
The number of outstanding shares have decreased by 0.8% over the past 5 years and increased by .16% over the past 10 years. These are just marginal changes. The outstanding shares have increased due to stock options and DRIP and decreased due to stock buy backs.
Revenue has increased by 5.8% and 6.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has increased by 5.9% and 6.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is not a great increase but it is decent.
Earnings per Share have grown by 5.6% and 9.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has increase 17% and 9.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Book Value per Share has increased by 9.1% and 8.4% per year. So the company has done ok.
The Return on Equity for this stock mostly runs at 10% or better. It has a 5 year median ROE of 10.5% and an ROE of 10.5% for the financial year ending in 2012. The ROE on Comprehensive Income for 2012 is close to the ROE on Net Income. That ROE is 10%. The 5 year median ROE on Comprehensive income is 10.9%. The Net Income and Comprehensive Income have varied over the years.
This stock has two types of stocks, as there are voting and non-voting shares. The Type A stock, largely sold on the TSX, is the non-voting shares. There is a large insider ownership. Often this results in good debt ratios and this stock is no exception.
The current Liquidity Ratio is quite good at 1.68. The current Debt Ratio is also good at 1.57. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios, while not that low are fine at 2.77 and 1.77.
Over the longer term, this stock should be a solid performer. You would buy it for diversification and for the increasing dividend. See my spreadsheet at ctc.htm.
Canadian Tire Corp engages in retail sales, financial services and petroleum sales. They own Canadian Tire Store, Gas Outlets, Parts Source Stores and Mark's Work Warehouse. The Canadian Tire stores offer a unique range of automotive, sports and leisure and home products. The company is controlled by the Billes family who own most of the voting shares. Its web site is here Canadian Tire.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Ballard Power Systems Inc
On my other blog I am today writing about Turnaround Situations continue...
I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP), but I did once. I fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. However, it did not work out. I probably should not have bought this stock based on an attractive new technology that would save the world.
I bought the stock in 1997 and at first it soared. However, by the time I sold it in 2006, I had a loss of 5.3% per year or a total 38% loss on my purchase. It is too bad, but it was a great idea. It was a good job I sold when I did because the current price is some 92% less than my purchase price. I did not have much invested, so I did not lose much. However I no longer buy small caps with good ideas. I want them also to be earning money and pay dividends. Why I did not invest much was that I generally test out stocks before I get into them in a major way.
The problem with analyzing this stock is that most ratios are meaningless because the company has no positive earnings and no positive cash flow. They only thing they have is revenue. So, using the Price/Sales per Share Ratios, I get a 5 year median P/S Ratio of 2.95 and a current one of 1.47. Since the current one is only 50% of the 5 year median Ratio, it means the stock is cheap. The above current P/S Ratio is based on $62M Revenue estimates for 2013 and the current stock price of $1.02.
I can also look at the Price/Book Value per Share Ratios. The 10 year median P/B Ratio is 1.00 and the current P/B Ratio is 1.47. The current P/B is some 46% higher than the 10 year median and suggests a rather high price. A problem with Book Value is that the Book Value on this stock has been decreasing rapidly.
When I look at insider trading, I find a small amount of both insider buying and insider selling. There are options and a number of option type vehicles like Deferred Share Units, Restricted Share Units, Units Deferred Share Units and Units Restricted Share Units. The CEO has shares worth $.7Mand has options are worth $4.2M. The CFO has shares worth $0.1M and has options worth $1 M.
When I look for analysts' recommendations, I find one Hold recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $1.00. This implies no real change in stock price over the next year. However, I should point out that there seems to be only 1 analyst following this stock.
Ballard Power Systems shares soared in March 2013 on deal with Volkswagen. However, the stock only did soar initially and then it returned prior levels. See the article in the Vancouver Sun . This occurred several times when I had the stock. A number of car companies were interested in the technology. However, after a while they lost interest and Ballard was just doing stuff with generating electricity.
I am still following this stock as I find the fuel cell concept interesting. However, it is hard to say if this company will ever make any money for shareholders. It certainly was not the company's fault that the stock price soared so high in the tech bubble of 2000. It has occasionally made money, but whether or not this company will ever be profitable is hard to say. See my spreadsheet at bld.htm.
Ballard Power Systems Inc. is engaged in design, development, manufacture, sale and service of fuel cell products for a variety of applications, focusing on motive power (material handling and buses) and stationary power (back-up power and distributed generation). It is also engaged in proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell development and commercialization. Its web site is here Ballard.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP), but I did once. I fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. However, it did not work out. I probably should not have bought this stock based on an attractive new technology that would save the world.
I bought the stock in 1997 and at first it soared. However, by the time I sold it in 2006, I had a loss of 5.3% per year or a total 38% loss on my purchase. It is too bad, but it was a great idea. It was a good job I sold when I did because the current price is some 92% less than my purchase price. I did not have much invested, so I did not lose much. However I no longer buy small caps with good ideas. I want them also to be earning money and pay dividends. Why I did not invest much was that I generally test out stocks before I get into them in a major way.
The problem with analyzing this stock is that most ratios are meaningless because the company has no positive earnings and no positive cash flow. They only thing they have is revenue. So, using the Price/Sales per Share Ratios, I get a 5 year median P/S Ratio of 2.95 and a current one of 1.47. Since the current one is only 50% of the 5 year median Ratio, it means the stock is cheap. The above current P/S Ratio is based on $62M Revenue estimates for 2013 and the current stock price of $1.02.
I can also look at the Price/Book Value per Share Ratios. The 10 year median P/B Ratio is 1.00 and the current P/B Ratio is 1.47. The current P/B is some 46% higher than the 10 year median and suggests a rather high price. A problem with Book Value is that the Book Value on this stock has been decreasing rapidly.
When I look at insider trading, I find a small amount of both insider buying and insider selling. There are options and a number of option type vehicles like Deferred Share Units, Restricted Share Units, Units Deferred Share Units and Units Restricted Share Units. The CEO has shares worth $.7Mand has options are worth $4.2M. The CFO has shares worth $0.1M and has options worth $1 M.
When I look for analysts' recommendations, I find one Hold recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $1.00. This implies no real change in stock price over the next year. However, I should point out that there seems to be only 1 analyst following this stock.
Ballard Power Systems shares soared in March 2013 on deal with Volkswagen. However, the stock only did soar initially and then it returned prior levels. See the article in the Vancouver Sun . This occurred several times when I had the stock. A number of car companies were interested in the technology. However, after a while they lost interest and Ballard was just doing stuff with generating electricity.
I am still following this stock as I find the fuel cell concept interesting. However, it is hard to say if this company will ever make any money for shareholders. It certainly was not the company's fault that the stock price soared so high in the tech bubble of 2000. It has occasionally made money, but whether or not this company will ever be profitable is hard to say. See my spreadsheet at bld.htm.
Ballard Power Systems Inc. is engaged in design, development, manufacture, sale and service of fuel cell products for a variety of applications, focusing on motive power (material handling and buses) and stationary power (back-up power and distributed generation). It is also engaged in proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell development and commercialization. Its web site is here Ballard.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Easter Monday
Since I stopped working, I have treated Easter Monday as a holiday. I became a single mother when my child was 3. The problem with Easter Monday was that the day care and schools were closed and I always had to scramble to get someone to babysit because I had to work. In the end I always got someone, but it was never fun.
I now have the opportunity to relax and enjoy this day, so I do.
I now have the opportunity to relax and enjoy this day, so I do.
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