On my other blog are some comments on "Inequality". See comments blog.
I own this stock of TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS). I came across it last year when I was looking for a dividend paying small cap stock. Since I bought this stock I have made a return of 12.97% per year with 3.42% per year coming from dividends. The capital gain portion is 9.55% per year.
When I look at insider trading, I find a small amount of insider buying and no insider selling. There are options outstanding. The company is buying back shares to cancel. I like strong insider ownership.
There are only 2 institutions that hold some 24% of the outstanding shares. They have decreased their holdings by 3.6% over the past 3 months. This is a negative. Gestion de portefeuille Natcan Inc. a Subsidiary of the National Bank used to hold 1.9M shares ceased to be an insider on 4 April 2012, although National Bank is still one of their bankers.
I get 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratios of 13.00, 15.21and 17.08. On a stock price of $2.19, I get a P/E ratio of 12.17. This would suggest that the stock price is quite good.
I get a Graham price of $2.33. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 1.03 and 1.30. The current P/GP ratios of 0.94 would suggest a good stock price. On an absolute basis a good stock price is also one at or below the Graham Price.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value Ratio of 1.54. The current P/B Ratio of 1.63 is some 6% higher. This higher current P/B Ratio says that the stock price is reasonable (rather than good).
The current dividend yield is 2.74% and the 4 year median dividend yield is 2.76%, one that is a bit higher. The current slightly higher dividend yield also suggests a reasonable stock price.
Since my stock price tests do not come up with the same answer, I would go with the last two and say that the stock price seems reasonable. The first two tests depend partly on estimates and estimates can be high.
I can only find 1 analyst that is following this stock and his recommendation is a Strong Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $3.75. This implies a 73.97% total return over the next 12 months with some 71.23% coming from capital gains and 2.74% from dividends. There is only one analyst on this stock and I personally do not count on such increase in this stock.
Here is an article in Material Handling Industry of America on this company. There is also an article by TECSYS at Panorama Consulting Solutions.
I would not give the stock a Strong Buy, but a Buy. This is because I think that the stock price is a reasonable, not a good one. I would only give a Strong Buy to a stock that I liked that had a really good stock price.
TECSYS Inc. is a supply chain management software provider that delivers powerful enterprise distribution, warehouse and transportation logistics software solutions. The company's customers include about 600 mid-size and Fortune 1000 corporations in healthcare, heavy equipment, third-party logistics, and general wholesale high- volume distribution industries. Its web site is here TECSYS. See my spreadsheet at tcs.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
TECSYS Inc
I own this stock (TSX-TCS). I came across it last year when I was looking for a dividend paying small cap stock. Such stocks are, of course, risky.
Since I bought this stock I have made a return of 12.97% per year with 3.42% per year coming from dividends. The capital gain portion is 9.55% per year. This has been held for a short period so per year increases can be misleading. My stock is up 14% since I bought it. This is not bad considering that in the same time period the TSX is down 11.7%.
Dividends have only been paid for 4 years and the growth rate is quite good at 10.7% per year. You should note that this company pays dividend on a semi-annual basis rather than the more common quarterly basis. Dividend yield is moderate at 2.74%. Dividend Payout Ratios are fine with 4 year median DPRs for Earnings at 40% and DPRs for cash flow at 35%. The DPRs have been growing and those for the financial year ending in April 2012 were 67% for earnings and 42% for cash flow.
Revenue growth is ok with growth for the last 5 and 10 years at 4.9% and 6.4%, respectively. The revenue per share growth is better at 8.5% and 9.2% per year, respectively. The difference is because the company has been buying back shares. Shares have decreased by 3.2% and 2.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This means that the per share value growth is probably showing a bit better than actually occurred.
Before 2008, the company showed no profit. Because of this I only have growth statistics for 4 years on this company and last year it made the same amount as it did in 2008 so there is no growth. However, EPS did grow in 2009 and 2010 and then fell. Analysts expect the EPS to grow over the next couple of years.
For cash flow per share, I have a maximum of 8 years of positive data, so the 5 and 8 year growth is at 70% and 13% per year, respectively. The book value per share growth is not great. Book value tends to decline when earnings are negative. The 5 year growth is 5.9% per year. There is no 10 year growth as book value declined at the rate of 3.9% per year over the past 10 years.
The Return on Equity is nothing to write home about. The ROE for the end of April 2012 financial year was 6.8% and the 5 year median ROE is a little higher at 8.6%. Comprehensive income is the same as net income.
The Liquidity Ratio comes in a little low at 1.45. However, a large part of the current liabilities is due to deferred revenue. This is done because it is not certain if all of the deferred revenue will be kept. The result is that Liquidity Ratio is probably showing lower than what it actually is.
The Debt Ratio is very good at 2.24. The reason that this is so good is that the company basically has no debt outside current liabilities. This also reflects what I have found that is common with companies with insider owning large amounts of shares. If you look at insiders with large amount of shares, they collectively hold 37% of the outstanding shares in this company.
I am pleased with the performance of this stock. I have always had a soft spot for tech stocks. At the moment I am going to hold on to this stock.
TECSYS Inc. is a supply chain management software provider that delivers powerful enterprise distribution, warehouse and transportation logistics software solutions. The company's customers include about 600 mid-size and Fortune 1000 corporations in healthcare, heavy equipment, third-party logistics, and general wholesale high- volume distribution industries. Its web site is here TECSYS. See my spreadsheet at tcs.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Since I bought this stock I have made a return of 12.97% per year with 3.42% per year coming from dividends. The capital gain portion is 9.55% per year. This has been held for a short period so per year increases can be misleading. My stock is up 14% since I bought it. This is not bad considering that in the same time period the TSX is down 11.7%.
Dividends have only been paid for 4 years and the growth rate is quite good at 10.7% per year. You should note that this company pays dividend on a semi-annual basis rather than the more common quarterly basis. Dividend yield is moderate at 2.74%. Dividend Payout Ratios are fine with 4 year median DPRs for Earnings at 40% and DPRs for cash flow at 35%. The DPRs have been growing and those for the financial year ending in April 2012 were 67% for earnings and 42% for cash flow.
Revenue growth is ok with growth for the last 5 and 10 years at 4.9% and 6.4%, respectively. The revenue per share growth is better at 8.5% and 9.2% per year, respectively. The difference is because the company has been buying back shares. Shares have decreased by 3.2% and 2.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This means that the per share value growth is probably showing a bit better than actually occurred.
Before 2008, the company showed no profit. Because of this I only have growth statistics for 4 years on this company and last year it made the same amount as it did in 2008 so there is no growth. However, EPS did grow in 2009 and 2010 and then fell. Analysts expect the EPS to grow over the next couple of years.
For cash flow per share, I have a maximum of 8 years of positive data, so the 5 and 8 year growth is at 70% and 13% per year, respectively. The book value per share growth is not great. Book value tends to decline when earnings are negative. The 5 year growth is 5.9% per year. There is no 10 year growth as book value declined at the rate of 3.9% per year over the past 10 years.
The Return on Equity is nothing to write home about. The ROE for the end of April 2012 financial year was 6.8% and the 5 year median ROE is a little higher at 8.6%. Comprehensive income is the same as net income.
The Liquidity Ratio comes in a little low at 1.45. However, a large part of the current liabilities is due to deferred revenue. This is done because it is not certain if all of the deferred revenue will be kept. The result is that Liquidity Ratio is probably showing lower than what it actually is.
The Debt Ratio is very good at 2.24. The reason that this is so good is that the company basically has no debt outside current liabilities. This also reflects what I have found that is common with companies with insider owning large amounts of shares. If you look at insiders with large amount of shares, they collectively hold 37% of the outstanding shares in this company.
I am pleased with the performance of this stock. I have always had a soft spot for tech stocks. At the moment I am going to hold on to this stock.
TECSYS Inc. is a supply chain management software provider that delivers powerful enterprise distribution, warehouse and transportation logistics software solutions. The company's customers include about 600 mid-size and Fortune 1000 corporations in healthcare, heavy equipment, third-party logistics, and general wholesale high- volume distribution industries. Its web site is here TECSYS. See my spreadsheet at tcs.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Monday, August 13, 2012
Medtronic Inc 2
On my other blog are some comments on "Picking a Dividend Payer in Sideways Market". See comments blog.
I do not own this stock of Medtronic (NYSE-MDT). This is one of a few US stocks that I track. I track it because it is in the Health sector. Except for whether or not as I Canadian I would have made any money on this stock, my spreadsheet is in US$ only.
Now that this stock has been beaten down so much as far as stock prices go, it should be able to provide some return to investors going forward. Analysts are saying that they think EPS will to up both in this year and the next 2 years. It would seem to me that we might be heading for another recession, so this optimism might be misplaced.
I must admit that I do not find the US information on insider trading as helpful as the Canadian information I can get. However, as far as I can see, over the past year, there was some $2.3M US$ of insider selling and some $0.8M US$ of insider buying. There are some 1215 institutions that hold 78% of the outstanding shares in this company. Over the past 3 months they have reduced their exposure by 1%. This is a small amount, so it does not tell us much.
I get 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratios of 11.89, 19.73 and 27.56. The current P/E ratio is just 10.91 on at $39.81 stock price, so this shows a very good stock price. I get a Graham price of $36.81. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham price Ratios were 2.04, 2.46 and 2.83. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.08 on a stock price of $39.81. This also shows a very good relative stock price. This stock price is also getting towards the Graham Price. A stock price at the Graham Price shows good value.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value Ratio of 2.16. The current P/B Ratio is just 2.41. The current Ratio is some 53% lower than the 5 year P/B Ratios and therefore shows a very good relative price.
The current dividend yield is 2.61% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 2.11%. The current one is some 24% higher than the 5 year median and this also shows a current good stock price.
When I look at analyst' Recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and one Sell recommendation. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $42.90. This would imply a total return over the next 12 months of 10.4%.
One analysts with a Hold recommendation said that the company has competitive advantages and financial strength. They said that they expect the 12 months stock price to be at $41.00 and this implies a total return over the next 12 months of 5.6%.
An analyst with a Sell recommendation gave much lower EPS estimates for financial years ending in April 2013 and April 2014. He expects this stock to underperform the market due to market share losses and competitive risks. He said that they only reason the company did well in the fourth quarter were lower taxes.
One Buy recommendation came with a comment on the past great history of dividend increases. Over the past 3 years dividend increases have been in the 7 to 9% range, not like the previous growth of 17% over the past 10 years. The most recent increase was at 7.2%. Also, dividends are currently way higher than they have ever been considering that the 10 year median dividend yield is just 0.94%. (Current dividend yield is 2.61%.)
There is a Wikipedia entry for this company, see Medtronic. Eric Cota looks at this company's free cash flow on his blog. This company is also discussed at istockanalyst.
This stock has hit a really low P/E level for this company, but that does not mean it cannot go lower. Management seems to have some faith in the future as they just raised the dividend by 7.2%. However, the dividend increases have been dropping for a while. They have been growing the company as the stock price has been retreating. Price is quite good.
Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic. See my spreadsheet at mdt.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
I do not own this stock of Medtronic (NYSE-MDT). This is one of a few US stocks that I track. I track it because it is in the Health sector. Except for whether or not as I Canadian I would have made any money on this stock, my spreadsheet is in US$ only.
Now that this stock has been beaten down so much as far as stock prices go, it should be able to provide some return to investors going forward. Analysts are saying that they think EPS will to up both in this year and the next 2 years. It would seem to me that we might be heading for another recession, so this optimism might be misplaced.
I must admit that I do not find the US information on insider trading as helpful as the Canadian information I can get. However, as far as I can see, over the past year, there was some $2.3M US$ of insider selling and some $0.8M US$ of insider buying. There are some 1215 institutions that hold 78% of the outstanding shares in this company. Over the past 3 months they have reduced their exposure by 1%. This is a small amount, so it does not tell us much.
I get 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratios of 11.89, 19.73 and 27.56. The current P/E ratio is just 10.91 on at $39.81 stock price, so this shows a very good stock price. I get a Graham price of $36.81. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham price Ratios were 2.04, 2.46 and 2.83. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.08 on a stock price of $39.81. This also shows a very good relative stock price. This stock price is also getting towards the Graham Price. A stock price at the Graham Price shows good value.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value Ratio of 2.16. The current P/B Ratio is just 2.41. The current Ratio is some 53% lower than the 5 year P/B Ratios and therefore shows a very good relative price.
The current dividend yield is 2.61% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 2.11%. The current one is some 24% higher than the 5 year median and this also shows a current good stock price.
When I look at analyst' Recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and one Sell recommendation. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $42.90. This would imply a total return over the next 12 months of 10.4%.
One analysts with a Hold recommendation said that the company has competitive advantages and financial strength. They said that they expect the 12 months stock price to be at $41.00 and this implies a total return over the next 12 months of 5.6%.
An analyst with a Sell recommendation gave much lower EPS estimates for financial years ending in April 2013 and April 2014. He expects this stock to underperform the market due to market share losses and competitive risks. He said that they only reason the company did well in the fourth quarter were lower taxes.
One Buy recommendation came with a comment on the past great history of dividend increases. Over the past 3 years dividend increases have been in the 7 to 9% range, not like the previous growth of 17% over the past 10 years. The most recent increase was at 7.2%. Also, dividends are currently way higher than they have ever been considering that the 10 year median dividend yield is just 0.94%. (Current dividend yield is 2.61%.)
There is a Wikipedia entry for this company, see Medtronic. Eric Cota looks at this company's free cash flow on his blog. This company is also discussed at istockanalyst.
This stock has hit a really low P/E level for this company, but that does not mean it cannot go lower. Management seems to have some faith in the future as they just raised the dividend by 7.2%. However, the dividend increases have been dropping for a while. They have been growing the company as the stock price has been retreating. Price is quite good.
Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic. See my spreadsheet at mdt.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Medtronic Inc
I do not own this stock (NYSE-MDT). This is one of a few US stocks that I track. I track it because it is in the Health sector. Except for whether or not as I Canadian I would have made any money on this stock, my spreadsheet is in US$ only.
First I will give you the bad news. If I was invested in this company, as a Canadian, there is not 5 year period since 2004 that I would have made a positive return. And, in 2004 the 5 year total return would only have been 5.7%. I am including dividend payments in these statements.
Both my 5 and 10 year total return as a Canadian would have been negative, with loss at 6.7% per year and 4.68% per year, respectively. Dividends are very low and the portion dividends would have been at 1.67% and 1.23% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Americans would have done a bit better with 5 year loss at 4.6% and 10 year loss or gain at 0%. Their dividend income would also be a bit better at 1.72% and 1.36% per year. The main reason for the decline is the change in the Price/Earnings Ratio. 10 years ago P/E Ratio was just under 60.00. Today P/E Ratio is just over 10. It is obvious that investors are only willing to pay a lot less today for each $1 this company earns than they were 10 years ago.
The current dividend yield is rather good at 2.6% per year. This is a rather high yield for this company, which spent many years with the dividend yield under 1%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.1% and the 10 year median dividend yield is lower at 0.9%.
However, dividends have grown well at 17% and 15.5% per year. This is quite good growth. The Dividend Payout Ratios are also quite good with the 5 year median DPR at 31.5% for earnings and 22% for cash flow. The DPRs have been increasing lately. The 10 year median DPR for earnings is at 24% and for cash flow is at 18.6%.
Even though shareholders have made no money over the past 5 and 10 years, the company has had moderate to good growth. The revenue has grown over the past 5 and 10 years at 5.6% and 9.7% per year. The 5 and 10 year growth in revenue per share has grown better at 7.7% and 11.5% per year. Per share revenue has grown better because the number of shares outstanding has been coming down marginally each year (at just under 2% per year).
The growth in Earnings per Share has also been quite decent with the 5 and 10 year growth at 7.2% and 15.6% per year. Cash flow per share is not quite as good as its 5 and 10 year growth is at 7.4% and 10.7% per year, respectively. Book Value growth is good with 5 and 10 year growth at 11.4% and 12% per year, respectively.
The Return on Equity has been good for this company with the year ending April 2012 ROE at 21.1%. The 5 year median ROE is also very good and it is also at 21.1%. An ROE from 10% to 15% is considered good. A sustained percentage above 20% is considered above average.
The debt ratios on this company are also quite good, with current Liquidity Ratio at 1.56 and the Debt Ratio at 2.07. What you want with these ratios are ones at or above 1.50. The current Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.93 and 0.93. Here the lower the ratio the better.
This company has the characteristic of a company transitioning from a growth company to a mature company. If the company continues to make the same progress on revenues, earnings and cash flow, shareholders could expect to see some profit in the future. However, we might be heading for a recession, so better times for the shareholders may still be a bit further into the future.
Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic. See my spreadsheet at mdt.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
First I will give you the bad news. If I was invested in this company, as a Canadian, there is not 5 year period since 2004 that I would have made a positive return. And, in 2004 the 5 year total return would only have been 5.7%. I am including dividend payments in these statements.
Both my 5 and 10 year total return as a Canadian would have been negative, with loss at 6.7% per year and 4.68% per year, respectively. Dividends are very low and the portion dividends would have been at 1.67% and 1.23% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Americans would have done a bit better with 5 year loss at 4.6% and 10 year loss or gain at 0%. Their dividend income would also be a bit better at 1.72% and 1.36% per year. The main reason for the decline is the change in the Price/Earnings Ratio. 10 years ago P/E Ratio was just under 60.00. Today P/E Ratio is just over 10. It is obvious that investors are only willing to pay a lot less today for each $1 this company earns than they were 10 years ago.
The current dividend yield is rather good at 2.6% per year. This is a rather high yield for this company, which spent many years with the dividend yield under 1%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.1% and the 10 year median dividend yield is lower at 0.9%.
However, dividends have grown well at 17% and 15.5% per year. This is quite good growth. The Dividend Payout Ratios are also quite good with the 5 year median DPR at 31.5% for earnings and 22% for cash flow. The DPRs have been increasing lately. The 10 year median DPR for earnings is at 24% and for cash flow is at 18.6%.
Even though shareholders have made no money over the past 5 and 10 years, the company has had moderate to good growth. The revenue has grown over the past 5 and 10 years at 5.6% and 9.7% per year. The 5 and 10 year growth in revenue per share has grown better at 7.7% and 11.5% per year. Per share revenue has grown better because the number of shares outstanding has been coming down marginally each year (at just under 2% per year).
The growth in Earnings per Share has also been quite decent with the 5 and 10 year growth at 7.2% and 15.6% per year. Cash flow per share is not quite as good as its 5 and 10 year growth is at 7.4% and 10.7% per year, respectively. Book Value growth is good with 5 and 10 year growth at 11.4% and 12% per year, respectively.
The Return on Equity has been good for this company with the year ending April 2012 ROE at 21.1%. The 5 year median ROE is also very good and it is also at 21.1%. An ROE from 10% to 15% is considered good. A sustained percentage above 20% is considered above average.
The debt ratios on this company are also quite good, with current Liquidity Ratio at 1.56 and the Debt Ratio at 2.07. What you want with these ratios are ones at or above 1.50. The current Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.93 and 0.93. Here the lower the ratio the better.
This company has the characteristic of a company transitioning from a growth company to a mature company. If the company continues to make the same progress on revenues, earnings and cash flow, shareholders could expect to see some profit in the future. However, we might be heading for a recession, so better times for the shareholders may still be a bit further into the future.
Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic. See my spreadsheet at mdt.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Wi-Lan Inc 2
I own not own this stock (TSX-WIN), but I used to when it was considered an up and coming company. However, it crashed with the 2000 bear market and I lost over 99% of my invested money. Good job I only bought a few hundred shares and did not loss that much in actual money terms. Wi-Lan has been trying to recover ever since the 2000 bear market, but the stock price is still only some 94% off the highs of 2000.
The insider trading report shows $0.59M of insider buying and $0.75M of insider selling with $0.16M net of insider selling. Insiders have options and also Restricted Share Units and Deferred Stock Units. Everyone has more options than shares however there are insiders with millions of dollars in shares. Wi-Lan has also been buying stock on the market for cancellation.
There are some 79 institutions holding 38% of the outstanding shares. Over the past 3 months they have increased their shares by just over 2%.
The 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratios are 6.06, 14.43 and 22.09. This is quite a wide spread. The company has had a number of years of earnings loses so this gets us to some negative P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 12.18. This is just below the median P/E Ratio for the last 5 years and shows a relatively good price. The ratio of 12.18 is also a reasonable one.
I get a current Graham Price of $4.67. The 6 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.52, 1.14 and 1.81. The current P/GP Ratio 1.04. This is a relatively reasonable one. Also a good stock price is near the Graham Price (or a P/GP Ratio of 1.00). (I only have 6 years of Graham Prices as the company did not earning any profits before 2006.)
The 10 year Price/Book Value Ratio is 2.41 and the current P/B Ratio of 2.01 is some 83% of the 10 year ratio and therefore shows that the stock price is reasonable. You would want the current ratio to be 80% of the 10 year ratio to show a good stock price. This is quite close.
It is hard to get much out of the dividend yield statistics as I only have them for 3 years. The 3 year median dividend yield is 1.2% and the current one of 2.87% is quite a bit higher. However, they have recently been ramming up their dividends. On the other hand 2.87% is not a bad dividend rate. They also just raised their dividend by 16.7% for the October payment. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2011 was 35% and the one for 2012 is expected to be lower at 30%. You would want a rather low Dividend Payout Ratio for this company and it currently seems reasonable.
One note of caution is that you would want a company to have higher cash flow than earnings. This company often seems to have higher earnings than cash flow. (Also see article on Sustainable Dividends Depend on the Payout Ratio investing daily.)
However, one good thing is that currently the company has $1.54 in cash per outstanding share. This is just over 30% of the value of these shares.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find only Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Strong Buy. Consensus 12 month stock price is $9.11. This implies a total return of 89% over the next 12 months.
One other thing I should point out is that this company has on hand in cash some $1.50 per shares. This is almost 32% of the current stock price. One analyst that thinks this is a buy talks about this. One analyst who said not to buy this company says he does not find their business attractive. He thinks that they are like ambulance chasers.
See a report on the second quarter at with Earnings and Revenue lower. See article at Financial Post.
CanTech has lately been talking about insider buying at Wi-Lan. See recent article at CanTech. They also had another article called "Wi-LAN is becoming a key player in patent monetization, says Byron's Astle". See article.
It is an interesting tech company, but they did not have a great second quarter and analysts' are revising their estimates down a bit. They have done a good job of growing this company since the 2000 bear market, but I do wonder about their future ability to pay dividends. The stock price seems reasonable, but it is not a great price, so I have a hard time believing that the 12 months consensus stock price will be met. It is not a stock I would buy at this time.
Wi-Lan was founded in 1992 to commercialize technology inventions that made low-cost, high-speed wireless networking a reality. Proven through several generations of products manufactured by Wi-Lan and applied in multiple technology standards, Wi-Lan's inventions were, by 2005, commercialized in millions of wireless networking devices worth many billions of dollars. Realizing the value that its intellectual property brought to industry, Wi-Lan chose in 2006 to focus its business on the development, protection and monetization of patented inventions. Its web site is here WiLan. See my spreadsheet at win.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
The insider trading report shows $0.59M of insider buying and $0.75M of insider selling with $0.16M net of insider selling. Insiders have options and also Restricted Share Units and Deferred Stock Units. Everyone has more options than shares however there are insiders with millions of dollars in shares. Wi-Lan has also been buying stock on the market for cancellation.
There are some 79 institutions holding 38% of the outstanding shares. Over the past 3 months they have increased their shares by just over 2%.
The 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratios are 6.06, 14.43 and 22.09. This is quite a wide spread. The company has had a number of years of earnings loses so this gets us to some negative P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 12.18. This is just below the median P/E Ratio for the last 5 years and shows a relatively good price. The ratio of 12.18 is also a reasonable one.
I get a current Graham Price of $4.67. The 6 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.52, 1.14 and 1.81. The current P/GP Ratio 1.04. This is a relatively reasonable one. Also a good stock price is near the Graham Price (or a P/GP Ratio of 1.00). (I only have 6 years of Graham Prices as the company did not earning any profits before 2006.)
The 10 year Price/Book Value Ratio is 2.41 and the current P/B Ratio of 2.01 is some 83% of the 10 year ratio and therefore shows that the stock price is reasonable. You would want the current ratio to be 80% of the 10 year ratio to show a good stock price. This is quite close.
It is hard to get much out of the dividend yield statistics as I only have them for 3 years. The 3 year median dividend yield is 1.2% and the current one of 2.87% is quite a bit higher. However, they have recently been ramming up their dividends. On the other hand 2.87% is not a bad dividend rate. They also just raised their dividend by 16.7% for the October payment. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2011 was 35% and the one for 2012 is expected to be lower at 30%. You would want a rather low Dividend Payout Ratio for this company and it currently seems reasonable.
One note of caution is that you would want a company to have higher cash flow than earnings. This company often seems to have higher earnings than cash flow. (Also see article on Sustainable Dividends Depend on the Payout Ratio investing daily.)
However, one good thing is that currently the company has $1.54 in cash per outstanding share. This is just over 30% of the value of these shares.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find only Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Strong Buy. Consensus 12 month stock price is $9.11. This implies a total return of 89% over the next 12 months.
One other thing I should point out is that this company has on hand in cash some $1.50 per shares. This is almost 32% of the current stock price. One analyst that thinks this is a buy talks about this. One analyst who said not to buy this company says he does not find their business attractive. He thinks that they are like ambulance chasers.
See a report on the second quarter at with Earnings and Revenue lower. See article at Financial Post.
CanTech has lately been talking about insider buying at Wi-Lan. See recent article at CanTech. They also had another article called "Wi-LAN is becoming a key player in patent monetization, says Byron's Astle". See article.
It is an interesting tech company, but they did not have a great second quarter and analysts' are revising their estimates down a bit. They have done a good job of growing this company since the 2000 bear market, but I do wonder about their future ability to pay dividends. The stock price seems reasonable, but it is not a great price, so I have a hard time believing that the 12 months consensus stock price will be met. It is not a stock I would buy at this time.
Wi-Lan was founded in 1992 to commercialize technology inventions that made low-cost, high-speed wireless networking a reality. Proven through several generations of products manufactured by Wi-Lan and applied in multiple technology standards, Wi-Lan's inventions were, by 2005, commercialized in millions of wireless networking devices worth many billions of dollars. Realizing the value that its intellectual property brought to industry, Wi-Lan chose in 2006 to focus its business on the development, protection and monetization of patented inventions. Its web site is here WiLan. See my spreadsheet at win.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Wi-Lan Inc
On my other blog are some comments on "Selling SAP, Buying ALA". See comments blog.
I own not own this stock (TSX-WIN), but I used to when it was considered an up and coming company. However, it crashed with the 2000 bear market and I lost over 99% of my invested money. Good job I only bought a few hundred shares and did not loss that much in actual money terms. Wi-Lan has been trying to recover ever since the 2000 bear market, but the stock price is still only some 94% off the highs of 2000.
The company has been recovering from the after bear lows. Looking at the total return on this company over the last 5 and 10 years you have really great figures. The 5 and 10 year total return come to 26.5% and 10.68% per year, respectively. Some of this is dividends as the company started to pay dividends in 2009, but it is a very small portion.
At first when they started to pay dividends, the Dividend Payout Ratios were really awful. However, for 2011 the DPR for earnings was 35% and it is expected to be 28% this year. The DPR for cash flow was 19% in 2011. The most recent dividend increase was in 2012 and it was for 20%, which is a very good increase.
Dividend yield has been going up. The 3 year median dividend yield is just 1.2%, but it is currently at 2.46%.
As part of their recovery, Wi-Lan started to focus its business on the development, protection and monetization of patented inventions. They had a cash flow problem for many years. (That is mostly cash flow was negative.) They also had earnings losses for a number of years. These problems were, for the most part, turned around in 2006.
Over the past 5 and 10 years there has been a big increase in shares with the 5 and 10 year growth both at around 15% per year. This, of course, affects the per share values for this stock. Revenues for the company are up over the past 5 and 10 years at 119% and 16% per year. However, Revenue per Share is up over the past 5 and 10 years at 90% and 0% per year.
EPS is not a great story for this company. EPS are down 3% per year over the past 5 years. I cannot get any sort of fix on a 10 year period as earnings were negative for so many years. Because Cash Flow per share was also negative for many years, I can only get a 4 year growth period on cash flow, but this shows good growth at 29% per year. However, Cash flow was also negative or very low in 2009 and 2010.
It is only the book value per share that I can get really good figures from and the 5 and 10 year growth is at 30% and 17% per year.
Return on Equity has not been great. The ROE for 2011 is ok at 9.6%. However, the ROE based on comprehensive income is only 6.6%. When the ROE for net income and comprehensive income has this sort of difference, it might call into question the quality of the company's stated earnings. Wi-Lan only started to give out comprehensive income in the 2011 statement.
One good thing about this company is that the debt ratios seem to always have been quite good. The current Liquidity Ratio is 9.18. (They just paid off some debentures.) The 5 and 10 year median Liquidity Ratios are at 9.49 and 6.66. The Debt Ratio is also very high at 9.05. The 5 and 10 year median Ratios are 9.08 and 6.73. The company basically has no debt.
The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are at 1.12 and 0.12. For these ratios, lower is better and they are quite low.
Of course, even with the recovery of this stock, I would still not even come close to what I had paid for it 2000. I paid far too much this stock when I bought it. Prices were inflated in 2000. It was nothing they did particularly to have it valued so highly in 2000. It was not making any money and it had not made any money. The 2000 stock bubble was a tech bubble and this stock took part in the general huge rise in stock prices.
Company is probably still a rather risky investment, but they have done a great job of turning the company around. It is hard to know how secure the dividend is. I would like to see some more years of good Dividend Payout Ratios to feel good about their ability to continue good dividends.
Wi-Lan was founded in 1992 to commercialize technology inventions that made low-cost, high-speed wireless networking a reality. Proven through several generations of products manufactured by Wi-Lan and applied in multiple technology standards, Wi-Lan's inventions were, by 2005, commercialized in millions of wireless networking devices worth many billions of dollars. Realizing the value that its intellectual property brought to industry, Wi-Lan chose in 2006 to focus its business on the development, protection and monetization of patented inventions. Its web site is here WiLan. See my spreadsheet at win.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
I own not own this stock (TSX-WIN), but I used to when it was considered an up and coming company. However, it crashed with the 2000 bear market and I lost over 99% of my invested money. Good job I only bought a few hundred shares and did not loss that much in actual money terms. Wi-Lan has been trying to recover ever since the 2000 bear market, but the stock price is still only some 94% off the highs of 2000.
The company has been recovering from the after bear lows. Looking at the total return on this company over the last 5 and 10 years you have really great figures. The 5 and 10 year total return come to 26.5% and 10.68% per year, respectively. Some of this is dividends as the company started to pay dividends in 2009, but it is a very small portion.
At first when they started to pay dividends, the Dividend Payout Ratios were really awful. However, for 2011 the DPR for earnings was 35% and it is expected to be 28% this year. The DPR for cash flow was 19% in 2011. The most recent dividend increase was in 2012 and it was for 20%, which is a very good increase.
Dividend yield has been going up. The 3 year median dividend yield is just 1.2%, but it is currently at 2.46%.
As part of their recovery, Wi-Lan started to focus its business on the development, protection and monetization of patented inventions. They had a cash flow problem for many years. (That is mostly cash flow was negative.) They also had earnings losses for a number of years. These problems were, for the most part, turned around in 2006.
Over the past 5 and 10 years there has been a big increase in shares with the 5 and 10 year growth both at around 15% per year. This, of course, affects the per share values for this stock. Revenues for the company are up over the past 5 and 10 years at 119% and 16% per year. However, Revenue per Share is up over the past 5 and 10 years at 90% and 0% per year.
EPS is not a great story for this company. EPS are down 3% per year over the past 5 years. I cannot get any sort of fix on a 10 year period as earnings were negative for so many years. Because Cash Flow per share was also negative for many years, I can only get a 4 year growth period on cash flow, but this shows good growth at 29% per year. However, Cash flow was also negative or very low in 2009 and 2010.
It is only the book value per share that I can get really good figures from and the 5 and 10 year growth is at 30% and 17% per year.
Return on Equity has not been great. The ROE for 2011 is ok at 9.6%. However, the ROE based on comprehensive income is only 6.6%. When the ROE for net income and comprehensive income has this sort of difference, it might call into question the quality of the company's stated earnings. Wi-Lan only started to give out comprehensive income in the 2011 statement.
One good thing about this company is that the debt ratios seem to always have been quite good. The current Liquidity Ratio is 9.18. (They just paid off some debentures.) The 5 and 10 year median Liquidity Ratios are at 9.49 and 6.66. The Debt Ratio is also very high at 9.05. The 5 and 10 year median Ratios are 9.08 and 6.73. The company basically has no debt.
The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are at 1.12 and 0.12. For these ratios, lower is better and they are quite low.
Of course, even with the recovery of this stock, I would still not even come close to what I had paid for it 2000. I paid far too much this stock when I bought it. Prices were inflated in 2000. It was nothing they did particularly to have it valued so highly in 2000. It was not making any money and it had not made any money. The 2000 stock bubble was a tech bubble and this stock took part in the general huge rise in stock prices.
Company is probably still a rather risky investment, but they have done a great job of turning the company around. It is hard to know how secure the dividend is. I would like to see some more years of good Dividend Payout Ratios to feel good about their ability to continue good dividends.
Wi-Lan was founded in 1992 to commercialize technology inventions that made low-cost, high-speed wireless networking a reality. Proven through several generations of products manufactured by Wi-Lan and applied in multiple technology standards, Wi-Lan's inventions were, by 2005, commercialized in millions of wireless networking devices worth many billions of dollars. Realizing the value that its intellectual property brought to industry, Wi-Lan chose in 2006 to focus its business on the development, protection and monetization of patented inventions. Its web site is here WiLan. See my spreadsheet at win.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Canyon Services Group 2
For some reason MaAfee is again showing my site as having potentially dangerous or suspicious data and they blocked data which is just the heading infor that google puts in. McAfee does this every once in a while. I do not know why.
On my other blog is some comments on "Dividend Increases". See comments blog.
I own not own this stock of Canyon Services Group (TSX-FRC). I get a newsletter weekly from MPL Communications called Advice Hotline. They wrote up this stock on July 19th and I was impressed with it so I did a spreadsheet. You can sign up for this newsletter at their site.
When I look at the insider trading report, I find $5.5M of insider buying and net insider buying of $4.8M. Buying is by Directors. There is some insider selling. Not only are there options for insiders, but Stock Based Units and Rights Deferred Stock Units (DSU).
I cannot get a low and high median Price/Earnings ratio covering the last 5 years as the company only started to earning positive earnings in 2010. However, the 2 year low, median and high P/E Ratios are 4.05, 7.72 and 11.39. These are rather low P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is between the median and low at 7.10. Please note that the consensus earnings for 2012 have recently been lowered, so this could affect the P/E ratio going forward. This test shows a good stock price.
I get a Graham Price of $13.55 and I get a 0.76 Price/Graham Price Ratio on a stock price of $10.29. The low, median and high P/GP Ratio over the past 7 years are 0.37, 0.91 and 1.31. This test also shows a good stock price.
The 6 year median Price/Book Value Ratio is 1.01. The current P/B Ratio is 1.83, which is 80% higher and shows a relatively high stock price. However, the current P/B ratio is not that high.
I cannot do any sort of test on the dividend yield as dividends just started in 2011. However, the current yield of 5.8% is very good and would suggest a low stock price.
The analysts' recommendations cover Strong Buy, Buy, and Hold. There are a surprising number of analysts following this stock. By far the most recommendation given is a Buy. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy.
The 12 month consensus stock price is $15.10. This suggests a 52.6% total return over the next 12 months, with 5.8% coming from dividends and 46.8 from capital gains. However, if you look at EPS estimates they have been coming down over the past 90 days. The consensus EPS for 2012 is now below the EPS for 2011.
There is a report from Raymond James on Canyon Services. They rate this stock at outperform which is a Buy recommendation. There is also an earlier G&M article on sayings this is a profitable and cheap stock. See article. And, there is a more recent G&M article saying that this stock is a small cap stock to watch. See article.
I still think that this company has great potential. It has a great dividend at 5.83% and the price is quite reasonable on most counts.
Canyon Services Group Inc. is a fast-growing company providing hydraulic fracturing and other well-stimulation services, including coiled tubing, acidizing, cementing, nitrogen and CO2, to oil and natural gas producers developing a variety of play types across Western Canada. Its web site is here Canyon Services. See my spreadsheet at frc.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
On my other blog is some comments on "Dividend Increases". See comments blog.
I own not own this stock of Canyon Services Group (TSX-FRC). I get a newsletter weekly from MPL Communications called Advice Hotline. They wrote up this stock on July 19th and I was impressed with it so I did a spreadsheet. You can sign up for this newsletter at their site.
When I look at the insider trading report, I find $5.5M of insider buying and net insider buying of $4.8M. Buying is by Directors. There is some insider selling. Not only are there options for insiders, but Stock Based Units and Rights Deferred Stock Units (DSU).
I cannot get a low and high median Price/Earnings ratio covering the last 5 years as the company only started to earning positive earnings in 2010. However, the 2 year low, median and high P/E Ratios are 4.05, 7.72 and 11.39. These are rather low P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is between the median and low at 7.10. Please note that the consensus earnings for 2012 have recently been lowered, so this could affect the P/E ratio going forward. This test shows a good stock price.
I get a Graham Price of $13.55 and I get a 0.76 Price/Graham Price Ratio on a stock price of $10.29. The low, median and high P/GP Ratio over the past 7 years are 0.37, 0.91 and 1.31. This test also shows a good stock price.
The 6 year median Price/Book Value Ratio is 1.01. The current P/B Ratio is 1.83, which is 80% higher and shows a relatively high stock price. However, the current P/B ratio is not that high.
I cannot do any sort of test on the dividend yield as dividends just started in 2011. However, the current yield of 5.8% is very good and would suggest a low stock price.
The analysts' recommendations cover Strong Buy, Buy, and Hold. There are a surprising number of analysts following this stock. By far the most recommendation given is a Buy. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy.
The 12 month consensus stock price is $15.10. This suggests a 52.6% total return over the next 12 months, with 5.8% coming from dividends and 46.8 from capital gains. However, if you look at EPS estimates they have been coming down over the past 90 days. The consensus EPS for 2012 is now below the EPS for 2011.
There is a report from Raymond James on Canyon Services. They rate this stock at outperform which is a Buy recommendation. There is also an earlier G&M article on sayings this is a profitable and cheap stock. See article. And, there is a more recent G&M article saying that this stock is a small cap stock to watch. See article.
I still think that this company has great potential. It has a great dividend at 5.83% and the price is quite reasonable on most counts.
Canyon Services Group Inc. is a fast-growing company providing hydraulic fracturing and other well-stimulation services, including coiled tubing, acidizing, cementing, nitrogen and CO2, to oil and natural gas producers developing a variety of play types across Western Canada. Its web site is here Canyon Services. See my spreadsheet at frc.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Canyon Services Group
I own not own this stock (TSX-FRC). I get a newsletter weekly from MPL Communications called Advice Hotline. They wrote up this stock on July 19th and I was impressed with it so I did a spreadsheet. You can sign up for this newsletter at their site.
This stock only went public in 2006. They have had a few years of negative earnings, but lately they have been going great guns. They started to pay dividends in 2011 and then rammed them up in 2012 doing two increases. Current dividend yield is very good at 5.83%.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings is expected to be 33.5% this year and 34% next year. This is a good payout ratio. I do not have any figures for DPR for cash flow, but the company does seem to have a good cash flow.
I only have total returns for the last 5 years and this is at 19.47%, with 19.28% from capital gain and just 0.20% from dividends. They just started to pay dividends, so in the future dividends should be a higher percentage of the total returns.
Since going public they have had a number of public offerings of shares. Shares have increased at the rate of 22% and 23% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. Revenues have increased at 51% and 55% per year over the past 5 and 6 years. Revenue per share has grown at 23% and 25% per year over the past 5 and 6 years.
Earnings per share have grown at 73% and 24% per year over the past 5 and 6 years. Cash flow per share has grown at the rate of 34% and 23% per year over the past 5 and 6 years. The only growth rate that is not great is Book Value and BV per share has grown at 3.4% and 13.5% per year over the past 5 and 6 years.
Return on Equity has only been very good over the past couple of years. They really have only started to earn a profit over the past couple of years. Although the 5 year median ROE is negative, the ROE for 2011 was 30% and for 2010 was 24.4%. ROE based on comprehensive income is the same as that based on net income.
Current Liquidity Ratio is great at 1.81. This ratio has fluctuated a bit in the past, but it has basically been fine. The current Debt Ratio is also great at 4.37 and this has always been great. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good 1.30 and 0.30 and these also have always been quite good.
Do not mistake this for a stable dividend paying stock, but it has great potential. It is rather a high risk, but if you can stand the risk, you could probably do very well by it if it keeps growing. I very much like fast growing dividend growth stock and this stock has great potential. Tomorrow I will look at what other analysts say about it and what my spreadsheet says about its current price.
Canyon Services Group Inc. is a fast-growing company providing hydraulic fracturing and other well-stimulation services, including coiled tubing, acidizing, cementing, nitrogen and CO2, to oil and natural gas producers developing a variety of play types across Western Canada. Its web site is here Canyon Services. See my spreadsheet at frc.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
This stock only went public in 2006. They have had a few years of negative earnings, but lately they have been going great guns. They started to pay dividends in 2011 and then rammed them up in 2012 doing two increases. Current dividend yield is very good at 5.83%.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings is expected to be 33.5% this year and 34% next year. This is a good payout ratio. I do not have any figures for DPR for cash flow, but the company does seem to have a good cash flow.
I only have total returns for the last 5 years and this is at 19.47%, with 19.28% from capital gain and just 0.20% from dividends. They just started to pay dividends, so in the future dividends should be a higher percentage of the total returns.
Since going public they have had a number of public offerings of shares. Shares have increased at the rate of 22% and 23% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. Revenues have increased at 51% and 55% per year over the past 5 and 6 years. Revenue per share has grown at 23% and 25% per year over the past 5 and 6 years.
Earnings per share have grown at 73% and 24% per year over the past 5 and 6 years. Cash flow per share has grown at the rate of 34% and 23% per year over the past 5 and 6 years. The only growth rate that is not great is Book Value and BV per share has grown at 3.4% and 13.5% per year over the past 5 and 6 years.
Return on Equity has only been very good over the past couple of years. They really have only started to earn a profit over the past couple of years. Although the 5 year median ROE is negative, the ROE for 2011 was 30% and for 2010 was 24.4%. ROE based on comprehensive income is the same as that based on net income.
Current Liquidity Ratio is great at 1.81. This ratio has fluctuated a bit in the past, but it has basically been fine. The current Debt Ratio is also great at 4.37 and this has always been great. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good 1.30 and 0.30 and these also have always been quite good.
Do not mistake this for a stable dividend paying stock, but it has great potential. It is rather a high risk, but if you can stand the risk, you could probably do very well by it if it keeps growing. I very much like fast growing dividend growth stock and this stock has great potential. Tomorrow I will look at what other analysts say about it and what my spreadsheet says about its current price.
Canyon Services Group Inc. is a fast-growing company providing hydraulic fracturing and other well-stimulation services, including coiled tubing, acidizing, cementing, nitrogen and CO2, to oil and natural gas producers developing a variety of play types across Western Canada. Its web site is here Canyon Services. See my spreadsheet at frc.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Molson Coors Canada 2
I own not own this stock of Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP). Since Molson was bought out by Coors, the Canadian listing has been winding down. It actually is not a bad stock for Canadians as it exposes them to an international consumer discretionary stock.
As best that I can see, over the past year there has been $9.6M US$ of insider selling and net insider selling is at $9.5M US$. I do not find the US reports as easy to read as the Canadian reports. However, there does seem to be a lot of outstanding options.
As far a TPX.B and TAP goes, there are some 503 institutions that own 74% of these shares. Over the past 3 months they have very marginally reduced their shares.
I got 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratios of 10.99, 12.28 and 13.66 for TPX.B shares. The current stock price of $42.00 has a P/E Ratio of 11.20. This shows that the current price is reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $59.81 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.77, 0.95 and 1.13. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.70. This would suggest that the current stock price of $42.00 is low.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value Ratio of 1.25. The current P/B Ratio is 0.99. This also suggests a low current stock price. The current P/B Ratio is less than 80% of the 10 year median P/B Ratio and the current P/B Ratio is less than 1.00. When this ratio is less than 1.00 it means that the stock price is below the book value.
I get a current dividend yield of 3.05%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.04%. The current dividend yield is around 50% higher than the 5 year yield and this would also suggest a rather low relative stock price.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold.
The 12 month consensus stock price is $43.80 US$. In CDN$ this would imply a total return of 7.52%, with 3.05% from dividends and 4.47% from capital gains.
One analyst said that he thought brewing industry would have modest profit growth driven by higher pricing and continued cost cuts as consumers are increasingly migrating to wine and spirits. He also thought consumers would "trade-up" to better select import beers and craft beers. Another analyst said that he thought the price was reasonable, but he did not see much growth in the future.
One analyst said he liked the recent acquisition in Europe and thought it was a buy because the stock is inexpensive. Another said the company owns a joint venture with Miller Coors and he did think that stock is trading at a 50% discount to what the sum of the parts of worth.
Analysts seemed to have been talking forever about beer giving way to wine and spirits and it has never happened. This is also quite a good market for craft beer. However, at the drinking establishments I go to there are plenty of people drink big brand named beer. However, I do agree that the world economy is not great and who knows when it will get better so consumer discretionary stocks may not do well, certainly in the short term.
There is an interesting Blog entry on a new product from Molson Coors and how this shows the greatest misuse of insights. See The Value Engineers. And then a blog on what Molson Coors is doing right. See article on new cans at Beverage Daily.
I think that this company will still give Canadians international exposure to a consumer discretionary stock. On a personal basis, I must admit that I do not drink much beer anymore and if I do it is from a small brewery.
Molson Coors Brewing Company is a leading global brewer delivering extraordinary brands that delight the world's beer drinkers. It brews, markets and sells a portfolio of leading premium brands such as Coors Light, Molson Canadian, Carling, Blue Moon, and Keystone Light across North America, Europe and Asia. It operates in Canada through Molson Coors Canada; in the US through MillerCoors; and in the U.K. and Ireland through Molson Coors UK. Its web site is here Molson Coors. See my spreadsheet at tpx.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
As best that I can see, over the past year there has been $9.6M US$ of insider selling and net insider selling is at $9.5M US$. I do not find the US reports as easy to read as the Canadian reports. However, there does seem to be a lot of outstanding options.
As far a TPX.B and TAP goes, there are some 503 institutions that own 74% of these shares. Over the past 3 months they have very marginally reduced their shares.
I got 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratios of 10.99, 12.28 and 13.66 for TPX.B shares. The current stock price of $42.00 has a P/E Ratio of 11.20. This shows that the current price is reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $59.81 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.77, 0.95 and 1.13. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.70. This would suggest that the current stock price of $42.00 is low.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value Ratio of 1.25. The current P/B Ratio is 0.99. This also suggests a low current stock price. The current P/B Ratio is less than 80% of the 10 year median P/B Ratio and the current P/B Ratio is less than 1.00. When this ratio is less than 1.00 it means that the stock price is below the book value.
I get a current dividend yield of 3.05%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.04%. The current dividend yield is around 50% higher than the 5 year yield and this would also suggest a rather low relative stock price.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold.
The 12 month consensus stock price is $43.80 US$. In CDN$ this would imply a total return of 7.52%, with 3.05% from dividends and 4.47% from capital gains.
One analyst said that he thought brewing industry would have modest profit growth driven by higher pricing and continued cost cuts as consumers are increasingly migrating to wine and spirits. He also thought consumers would "trade-up" to better select import beers and craft beers. Another analyst said that he thought the price was reasonable, but he did not see much growth in the future.
One analyst said he liked the recent acquisition in Europe and thought it was a buy because the stock is inexpensive. Another said the company owns a joint venture with Miller Coors and he did think that stock is trading at a 50% discount to what the sum of the parts of worth.
Analysts seemed to have been talking forever about beer giving way to wine and spirits and it has never happened. This is also quite a good market for craft beer. However, at the drinking establishments I go to there are plenty of people drink big brand named beer. However, I do agree that the world economy is not great and who knows when it will get better so consumer discretionary stocks may not do well, certainly in the short term.
There is an interesting Blog entry on a new product from Molson Coors and how this shows the greatest misuse of insights. See The Value Engineers. And then a blog on what Molson Coors is doing right. See article on new cans at Beverage Daily.
I think that this company will still give Canadians international exposure to a consumer discretionary stock. On a personal basis, I must admit that I do not drink much beer anymore and if I do it is from a small brewery.
Molson Coors Brewing Company is a leading global brewer delivering extraordinary brands that delight the world's beer drinkers. It brews, markets and sells a portfolio of leading premium brands such as Coors Light, Molson Canadian, Carling, Blue Moon, and Keystone Light across North America, Europe and Asia. It operates in Canada through Molson Coors Canada; in the US through MillerCoors; and in the U.K. and Ireland through Molson Coors UK. Its web site is here Molson Coors. See my spreadsheet at tpx.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Molson Coors Canada
On my other blog is some comment on "What I get from my Spreadsheets". See comments blog.
I own not own this stock of Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP). Since Molson was bought out by Coors, the Canadian listing has been winding down. There is not much activity. The Canadian listing is for Canadian investors who did not want to exchange their stock for TAP stock because then they would have had to pay capital gains tax.
My spreadsheet for Molson Coors Canada tracks the stock from Symbol MOL.A to TPX.B, or in other words tracks Molson Canadian into Molson Coors Canada. This would come up with different results than if I was tracking Coors into Molson Coors. You can still buy Molson Coors on the TSX, but as I have said, there is not much activity. This is now mostly considered to be a US company.
The good thing about this stock is that the dividends are decent and the dividend increases are also decent. The problem for Canadians is that the dividends are paid in US$ so they will fluctuate. The 5 and 10 year dividend increases in US$ is 14% and 12% per year, respectively. The 5 and 10 year dividend increases in CDN$ is lower at 11% and 9.7% per year, respectively.
Their last dividend increase occurred in 2011 and was a healthy 14.3% increase. The Dividend Payout Ratios are good on this stock with the 5 year median DPR for earnings at 29.2% and for cash flow at 25.3%. For Canadians the current dividend at 3.1% is good, but the 5 year median is lower at 2.04%. US$ dividends are very similar. The DPR for earnings is creeping up as the DPR for earnings is expected to be around 35% in 2012. This is still a good ratio, but I just wanted to point out it is creeping up.
Total return has not been great lately on this company. The 5 and 10 year total return in CDN$ is at 2.4% and 7.82% per year, respectively. The dividend portion of this total return is at 2.16% and 3.85% per year, respectively. Capital gain was at 0.24% and 3.97% per year. This means that the dividend portion of the total returns was at 90% and 49% of the total return. The returns in US$ are not far off this except that the 5 year total return was negative.
Mostly the growth in US$ is better than the return in CDN$. Also the number of outstanding shares has increased, especially over the past 10 years, so things like revenue has grown faster than revenue per share. Shares have increased at 1.5% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
No matter how you look at revenue, it has not grown much and is negative for revenue and revenue per share in CDN$. The only positive growth is revenue over the past 10 years in US$ has grown at 6%. The grown is negative for revenue and revenue per share in US$ for any other periods.
Earnings are a different story. EPS has grown at 8.8% and 9% in CDN$ over the past 5 and 10 years. In US$ currency EPS has grown at 11.8% and 8.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Cash Flow in US$ terms has grown at 2.1% and 7.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. In CDN$ terms, there is no growth over the past 5 years and some 7.3% growth over the past 10 years.
Book Value growth is not great either, with 5 and 10 year growth in CDN$ at 1.3% and 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth in US$ terms is similar.
The Return on Equity is mediocre with the ROE at 8.8% in 2011 and the 5 year median ROE also at 8.8%. US ROE would be the same.
The current Liquidity Ratio is very good at 1.66. However, it has fluctuated over the years and the 5 year median and 10 year medians are mediocre at 1.12 and 1.02. The current Debt Ratio is very good at 2.62. The 5 and 10 year median values are very good also at 2.44 and 2.08 respectively.
Current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are quite good at 1.62 and 0.62. The 10 year median figures are also good. (Note for all debt ratios they would be the same in US$ and CDN$ terms.)
A good thing for Canadians is that with the stock of this company in their portfolio, they are exposed to an international business as the company sells beers in North America, Europe and Asia. This is a consumer discretionary stock so it is not surprising it has not done well lately. I had held Labatt's for a number of years until it was bought out and made good money on this stock.
Hear O Canada by five musicians conduct an experiment using nothing but instruments made from Molson Canadian bottles and cans. See YouTube.
Molson Coors Brewing Company is a leading global brewer delivering extraordinary brands that delight the world's beer drinkers. It brews, markets and sells a portfolio of leading premium brands such as Coors Light, Molson Canadian, Carling, Blue Moon, and Keystone Light across North America, Europe and Asia. It operates in Canada through Molson Coors Canada; in the US through MillerCoors; and in the U.K. and Ireland through Molson Coors UK. Its web site is here Molson Coors. See my spreadsheet at tpx.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
I own not own this stock of Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP). Since Molson was bought out by Coors, the Canadian listing has been winding down. There is not much activity. The Canadian listing is for Canadian investors who did not want to exchange their stock for TAP stock because then they would have had to pay capital gains tax.
My spreadsheet for Molson Coors Canada tracks the stock from Symbol MOL.A to TPX.B, or in other words tracks Molson Canadian into Molson Coors Canada. This would come up with different results than if I was tracking Coors into Molson Coors. You can still buy Molson Coors on the TSX, but as I have said, there is not much activity. This is now mostly considered to be a US company.
The good thing about this stock is that the dividends are decent and the dividend increases are also decent. The problem for Canadians is that the dividends are paid in US$ so they will fluctuate. The 5 and 10 year dividend increases in US$ is 14% and 12% per year, respectively. The 5 and 10 year dividend increases in CDN$ is lower at 11% and 9.7% per year, respectively.
Their last dividend increase occurred in 2011 and was a healthy 14.3% increase. The Dividend Payout Ratios are good on this stock with the 5 year median DPR for earnings at 29.2% and for cash flow at 25.3%. For Canadians the current dividend at 3.1% is good, but the 5 year median is lower at 2.04%. US$ dividends are very similar. The DPR for earnings is creeping up as the DPR for earnings is expected to be around 35% in 2012. This is still a good ratio, but I just wanted to point out it is creeping up.
Total return has not been great lately on this company. The 5 and 10 year total return in CDN$ is at 2.4% and 7.82% per year, respectively. The dividend portion of this total return is at 2.16% and 3.85% per year, respectively. Capital gain was at 0.24% and 3.97% per year. This means that the dividend portion of the total returns was at 90% and 49% of the total return. The returns in US$ are not far off this except that the 5 year total return was negative.
Mostly the growth in US$ is better than the return in CDN$. Also the number of outstanding shares has increased, especially over the past 10 years, so things like revenue has grown faster than revenue per share. Shares have increased at 1.5% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
No matter how you look at revenue, it has not grown much and is negative for revenue and revenue per share in CDN$. The only positive growth is revenue over the past 10 years in US$ has grown at 6%. The grown is negative for revenue and revenue per share in US$ for any other periods.
Earnings are a different story. EPS has grown at 8.8% and 9% in CDN$ over the past 5 and 10 years. In US$ currency EPS has grown at 11.8% and 8.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Cash Flow in US$ terms has grown at 2.1% and 7.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. In CDN$ terms, there is no growth over the past 5 years and some 7.3% growth over the past 10 years.
Book Value growth is not great either, with 5 and 10 year growth in CDN$ at 1.3% and 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth in US$ terms is similar.
The Return on Equity is mediocre with the ROE at 8.8% in 2011 and the 5 year median ROE also at 8.8%. US ROE would be the same.
The current Liquidity Ratio is very good at 1.66. However, it has fluctuated over the years and the 5 year median and 10 year medians are mediocre at 1.12 and 1.02. The current Debt Ratio is very good at 2.62. The 5 and 10 year median values are very good also at 2.44 and 2.08 respectively.
Current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are quite good at 1.62 and 0.62. The 10 year median figures are also good. (Note for all debt ratios they would be the same in US$ and CDN$ terms.)
A good thing for Canadians is that with the stock of this company in their portfolio, they are exposed to an international business as the company sells beers in North America, Europe and Asia. This is a consumer discretionary stock so it is not surprising it has not done well lately. I had held Labatt's for a number of years until it was bought out and made good money on this stock.
Hear O Canada by five musicians conduct an experiment using nothing but instruments made from Molson Canadian bottles and cans. See YouTube.
Molson Coors Brewing Company is a leading global brewer delivering extraordinary brands that delight the world's beer drinkers. It brews, markets and sells a portfolio of leading premium brands such as Coors Light, Molson Canadian, Carling, Blue Moon, and Keystone Light across North America, Europe and Asia. It operates in Canada through Molson Coors Canada; in the US through MillerCoors; and in the U.K. and Ireland through Molson Coors UK. Its web site is here Molson Coors. See my spreadsheet at tpx.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
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