Reitmans (TSX-RET.A) is a stock I follow but do not own. I was looking at this stock to buy after selling RIM. This stock has a financial year ending at the end of January of each year. I have updated my spreadsheet for January 31, 2010 financial year. I have also updated it for the 2nd quarterly reported dated July 31, 2010.
When I look at insider trading, I find that all the insider buying and insider selling is being done by officers and directors of the company. Of course, the CEO is a Reitman and this family does own half of this company. There is insider selling of $2.1M and insider buying of around $.3M giving a net selling of $1.8M. Reitmans have been buying back non-voting A shares for cancellation. The good thing I find and it expresses confidence in the company, is the raising of the dividends this year after two years of the same level of dividends.
The 5 year median low P/E Ratio is 9.7 and 5 year median high P/E Ratio is 15.6. The current P/E based on earnings estimates is 12.9, so it is a reasonable one, but not a low one. When I look at the Graham Price, I find a current one of $15.65. The stock price of $18.00 is 15% above this. The Graham Price is depressed currently because of lack of earnings increases. However, the stock price has been at or below the Graham Price during the financial year at some point most years.
When I look at the Price/Book Value Ratio, I get a current one of 2.31 and a 10 year average of 2.03. So the current P/B Ratio is about 14% above the 10 year average. The only valuation that shows a good current stock price is the dividend yield. The current yield is 4.4% and the 5 year average is 3.9%. However, the 10 year average high dividend yield at 4.8% is better than the current one. So the yield is better than average, but not better than the 10 year high.
When I look at analysts recommendations, I see Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. I can find no other. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) Analysts think the company is well managed and like the lack of debt. Others think that the retail trade is a tough business to make money in and so do not like any retail stock.
Reitmans (Canada) Limited operates a network of clothing stores specializing in women's & men's fashions and accessories. The company operates stores under the names Reitmans, Smart Set, Pennington Superstores, R. W. & Co., Thyme Maternity, Addition-Elle, and Cassis. Sherlex Investments Inc (Reitman family) owns 50% of this company. Its web site is here Reitmans. See my spreadsheet at ret.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Monday, December 13, 2010
Reitmans (Canada) Ltd
Reitmans (TSX-RET.A) is a stock I follow but do not own. I was looking at this stock to buy after selling RIM. However, I decided to go with other purchases. There is nothing wrong with this stock, it is just I rather buy some stock I already own, rather than get into new stock, unless I cannot help it. This stock has a financial year ending at the end of January of each year. I have updated my spreadsheet for January 31, 2010 financial year. I have also updated it for the 2nd quarterly reported dated July 31, 2010.
This stock is on one of the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers . The dividend increases have been inconsistent over the past 10 years; however, there were some years of very good increases. This is why the 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is 29% per year and 25% per year respectively. The last few years the dividend increases have been lower. For the 2011 financial year, dividends were increased after one had been paid, so the total increase for the 2010 financial year was just over 8%, however, the actual increase was 11%.
If you had held this stock for the last 5 years, you would have probably made a total return of around 8% per year, with 5.5% of this return being in dividends. If you had held this stock for the last 10 years, your return would have been around 23% per year, with again about 5.5% in dividend income. The dividend growth potential is probably around 10% after 10 years. That is you could be earnings a 10% return in 10 years time from an investment in this stock today.
For the last few years, this stock has not done well in regards to revenue and earnings. However, it is expected to recover over the next two years with higher revenue and higher earnings. In the 2nd quarterly report, you can see that both revenues and earning are up over one year ago and this, of course, is a good sign.
The strong points of this stock are the great Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liability Ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is currently at 4.94 and the A/L Ratio is even higher at 5.79. The 5 year average for these ratios is 3.39 and 4.69 respectively. This company is prepared to weather any recession. The increase in Book Value is also very good. This has increased over the past 5 and 10 years at 9.6% and 10.4% per year, respectively.
The last thing to look at is the Return on Equity. The ROE average for the last 5 year is 18.5% with the January 2010 ROE at 13.2% and the one for the 2nd quarter of 2011 at 21.9%.
Tomorrow and I will look at what the analysts are currently saying about this stock.
Reitmans (Canada) Limited operates a network of clothing stores specializing in women's & men's fashions and accessories. The company operates stores under the names Reitmans, Smart Set, Pennington Superstores, R. W. & Co., Thyme Maternity, Addition-Elle, and Cassis. Sherlex Investments Inc (Reitmans family) owns 50% of this company. Its web site is here Reitmans. See my spreadsheet at ret.htm.
I bought some Husky Energy with the remaining money from RIM. I first looked to purchase some more stock that I already had in the account RIM was in. I found three stocks I already owned that we at good price. I am reluctant to continually buy new stocks, as I like to keep some control over how many stocks I own.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
This stock is on one of the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers . The dividend increases have been inconsistent over the past 10 years; however, there were some years of very good increases. This is why the 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is 29% per year and 25% per year respectively. The last few years the dividend increases have been lower. For the 2011 financial year, dividends were increased after one had been paid, so the total increase for the 2010 financial year was just over 8%, however, the actual increase was 11%.
If you had held this stock for the last 5 years, you would have probably made a total return of around 8% per year, with 5.5% of this return being in dividends. If you had held this stock for the last 10 years, your return would have been around 23% per year, with again about 5.5% in dividend income. The dividend growth potential is probably around 10% after 10 years. That is you could be earnings a 10% return in 10 years time from an investment in this stock today.
For the last few years, this stock has not done well in regards to revenue and earnings. However, it is expected to recover over the next two years with higher revenue and higher earnings. In the 2nd quarterly report, you can see that both revenues and earning are up over one year ago and this, of course, is a good sign.
The strong points of this stock are the great Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liability Ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is currently at 4.94 and the A/L Ratio is even higher at 5.79. The 5 year average for these ratios is 3.39 and 4.69 respectively. This company is prepared to weather any recession. The increase in Book Value is also very good. This has increased over the past 5 and 10 years at 9.6% and 10.4% per year, respectively.
The last thing to look at is the Return on Equity. The ROE average for the last 5 year is 18.5% with the January 2010 ROE at 13.2% and the one for the 2nd quarter of 2011 at 21.9%.
Tomorrow and I will look at what the analysts are currently saying about this stock.
Reitmans (Canada) Limited operates a network of clothing stores specializing in women's & men's fashions and accessories. The company operates stores under the names Reitmans, Smart Set, Pennington Superstores, R. W. & Co., Thyme Maternity, Addition-Elle, and Cassis. Sherlex Investments Inc (Reitmans family) owns 50% of this company. Its web site is here Reitmans. See my spreadsheet at ret.htm.
I bought some Husky Energy with the remaining money from RIM. I first looked to purchase some more stock that I already had in the account RIM was in. I found three stocks I already owned that we at good price. I am reluctant to continually buy new stocks, as I like to keep some control over how many stocks I own.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Bank of Nova Scotia 2
This is a bank (TSX-BNS) that I follow, however, I do not own of stock in this bank. I track this bank, as it is a bank that is thought a good investment. The only reason I do not own it is that I already own too much in the financial sector.
I looked at the Insider Trading reports and find that there is a lot of selling of this bank by insiders, just as there was by TD Bank. The net insider selling is $74.9M. There is not enough insider buying to even talk about. All this selling seems to be of options. The problem, of course, is that insider selling does not really tell you anything.
When I look at the Price/Earnings Ratio, I find that the 5 year median low P/E is 11.8 and the 5 year median high P/E is 14.2. I get a current P/E of 12.4, which is neither particularly low nor high. The current Graham Price I get is $47.75, so the current stock price of $55.30 is some 16% above this. The difference has been greater in the past, but also, usually sometime during the year, the stock price has been at or below the Graham Price at some point.
Looking at the Price/Book Value Ratio, I get a 10 year average of 2.40 and a current P/B ratio of 2.44. So, these ratios are about the same. The last thing is the dividend yield. I get a current one of 3.5% and a 5 year average of 4%. All these measures show a slightly high current stock price comparatively for this stock.
When I look at what the analysts’ are recommending, I see lots of Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. There is also one Underperform and one Sell recommendation. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The 12 month target price is about $58 to $64.
Some like this bank as it has banking exposure to the Caribbean and the Far East, rather than in the US. Some analysts currently favor other banks, like the TD and BMO rather than BNS. Some analysts think that this will be the first of the big 5 banks to increase their dividends.
I will not be buying this bank for the simple reason that I already have too much exposure to the financial sector of the stock market.
The Bank of Nova Scotia is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. It is an international bank having banking in Canada and some 40 other countries around the world in the geographic regions of the Caribbean and Central America, Mexico, Latin America and Asia. Its web site is here BNS. See my spreadsheet at bns.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
I looked at the Insider Trading reports and find that there is a lot of selling of this bank by insiders, just as there was by TD Bank. The net insider selling is $74.9M. There is not enough insider buying to even talk about. All this selling seems to be of options. The problem, of course, is that insider selling does not really tell you anything.
When I look at the Price/Earnings Ratio, I find that the 5 year median low P/E is 11.8 and the 5 year median high P/E is 14.2. I get a current P/E of 12.4, which is neither particularly low nor high. The current Graham Price I get is $47.75, so the current stock price of $55.30 is some 16% above this. The difference has been greater in the past, but also, usually sometime during the year, the stock price has been at or below the Graham Price at some point.
Looking at the Price/Book Value Ratio, I get a 10 year average of 2.40 and a current P/B ratio of 2.44. So, these ratios are about the same. The last thing is the dividend yield. I get a current one of 3.5% and a 5 year average of 4%. All these measures show a slightly high current stock price comparatively for this stock.
When I look at what the analysts’ are recommending, I see lots of Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. There is also one Underperform and one Sell recommendation. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The 12 month target price is about $58 to $64.
Some like this bank as it has banking exposure to the Caribbean and the Far East, rather than in the US. Some analysts currently favor other banks, like the TD and BMO rather than BNS. Some analysts think that this will be the first of the big 5 banks to increase their dividends.
I will not be buying this bank for the simple reason that I already have too much exposure to the financial sector of the stock market.
The Bank of Nova Scotia is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. It is an international bank having banking in Canada and some 40 other countries around the world in the geographic regions of the Caribbean and Central America, Mexico, Latin America and Asia. Its web site is here BNS. See my spreadsheet at bns.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Bank of Nova Scotia
This is a bank (TSX-BNS) that I follow, however, I do not own of stock in this bank. They on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices).
However, they are in the same position on Dividends as the TD Bank is. They have not raised their dividends since 2008. If you look at the 5 and 10 year growth rates for dividends, they come in at 8% and 14.6% per year, respectively. So, if you have held this bank for more than 5 years, you would not have done badly as far as dividend increases go. However, if you have bought this bank since 2008, your dividends would not have changed.
As far a total returns go, the 5 year growth is much weaker than the 10 year growth. The 5 and 10 year in total return come in at 8.5% and 15% per year respectively. The portion of this total return that is in dividends is about 4% per year.
When you look at revenue growth over the past 5 and 10 years, this stock has not done well. The growth is around 5% per year over the past 5 years and this is not bad (but, not good either). The growth for the last 10 years comes in just under 2% per year and this is not good. However, they have lower revenues for the past two years and this is why the growth is so anemic. The growth in earnings could also be better. The 5 and 10 years figures are 4.4% and 8% per year, respectively. The 10 year growth is not bad, but the 5 year growth at 4.4% is rather low. The growth in Book Value is ok at just over 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Asset/Liability Ratio for this bank is 1.05 and this is about normal for our banks. The return on equity has always been quite good for this bank, which has a 5 year average ROE of 18.4% and a ROE for the financial year ending in October 2010 of 17%.
The real thing that matter is that if you hold Canadian banks for the long term, you can do very well in both dividends and capital gains.
The Bank of Nova Scotia is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. It is an international bank having banking in Canada and some 40 other countries around the world in the geographic regions of the Caribbean and Central America, Mexico, Latin America and Asia. Its web site is here BNS. See my spreadsheet at bns.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
However, they are in the same position on Dividends as the TD Bank is. They have not raised their dividends since 2008. If you look at the 5 and 10 year growth rates for dividends, they come in at 8% and 14.6% per year, respectively. So, if you have held this bank for more than 5 years, you would not have done badly as far as dividend increases go. However, if you have bought this bank since 2008, your dividends would not have changed.
As far a total returns go, the 5 year growth is much weaker than the 10 year growth. The 5 and 10 year in total return come in at 8.5% and 15% per year respectively. The portion of this total return that is in dividends is about 4% per year.
When you look at revenue growth over the past 5 and 10 years, this stock has not done well. The growth is around 5% per year over the past 5 years and this is not bad (but, not good either). The growth for the last 10 years comes in just under 2% per year and this is not good. However, they have lower revenues for the past two years and this is why the growth is so anemic. The growth in earnings could also be better. The 5 and 10 years figures are 4.4% and 8% per year, respectively. The 10 year growth is not bad, but the 5 year growth at 4.4% is rather low. The growth in Book Value is ok at just over 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Asset/Liability Ratio for this bank is 1.05 and this is about normal for our banks. The return on equity has always been quite good for this bank, which has a 5 year average ROE of 18.4% and a ROE for the financial year ending in October 2010 of 17%.
The real thing that matter is that if you hold Canadian banks for the long term, you can do very well in both dividends and capital gains.
The Bank of Nova Scotia is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. It is an international bank having banking in Canada and some 40 other countries around the world in the geographic regions of the Caribbean and Central America, Mexico, Latin America and Asia. Its web site is here BNS. See my spreadsheet at bns.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
TD Bank 2
This is a bank (TSX-TD) I own and it has published unaudited 4th quarter results. The bank results are starting to come in, so I start to review all the banks that I follow. Analysts feel that dividends on banks will be raised next year. TD says they will provide some clarity on dividends in the next several months.
In looking at the Insider Trading reports, what stands out clearly is that, typical for our banks, the insiders have far more stock options than shares, except for the directors. Over the past year, there has been $150M in insider selling and some $10M in insider buying. Mostly, insiders have been selling off their stock options, although the CEO seems to have kept some of his. The vast majority of the buying has been by directors. I guess it is a good sign that directors have been buying. Unfortunately, insider selling does not tell you very much and insider selling only amounts to about 1/4 of 1% of the market cap of the bank.
When I look at the P/E ratios, I get a 5 year median low of 10.7 and a 5 year median high of 15. The current P/E ratio of 10.9 I get is on the low side. When I look at the Graham Price, I get a current one of $83.73 and this is about 15% above the current stock price of $70.86. Before the recent recession, the stock price seldom got near the Graham Price.
For the Price/Book Value Ratio, I get a current one 1.47 and a 10 year average of 1.92. This is a sign of a good current price as the current P/B ratio is only some 77% of the 10 year average. The only place that does not show a good current price is the dividend yield. Of course, they have not raised the dividend for the last three years. The current dividend is 3.4% and the 5 year average is 3.6%.
When I look at what the analysts’ are saying, I find lots of Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations and 1 Sell recommendation. I do not find any underperform recommendations. The consensus would be a buy recommendation. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Analysts seem to think that this bank is well run. They also mention that TD will probably end up being a major player in the US. Others think that TD and Bank of Nova Scotia are the most likely banks to raise their dividends first. The stock price target over the next 12 months seems to be between $82 and $86.
This site has an interesting take on investing and it talks about the TD Bank.
I, of course, will be holding on to my TD Bank stock. I have too much in financials, so I will not be buying anymore.
They are a bank with full range of financial products and services for individuals and corporations in Canada, USA and internationally. Financial products and services include Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; Wealth Management; U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking; and Wholesale banking products. Its web site is here TD Bank. See my spreadsheet at td.htm.
With part of my money from RIM sale, I have bought some RIOCAN (TSX-REI.UN) stock.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
In looking at the Insider Trading reports, what stands out clearly is that, typical for our banks, the insiders have far more stock options than shares, except for the directors. Over the past year, there has been $150M in insider selling and some $10M in insider buying. Mostly, insiders have been selling off their stock options, although the CEO seems to have kept some of his. The vast majority of the buying has been by directors. I guess it is a good sign that directors have been buying. Unfortunately, insider selling does not tell you very much and insider selling only amounts to about 1/4 of 1% of the market cap of the bank.
When I look at the P/E ratios, I get a 5 year median low of 10.7 and a 5 year median high of 15. The current P/E ratio of 10.9 I get is on the low side. When I look at the Graham Price, I get a current one of $83.73 and this is about 15% above the current stock price of $70.86. Before the recent recession, the stock price seldom got near the Graham Price.
For the Price/Book Value Ratio, I get a current one 1.47 and a 10 year average of 1.92. This is a sign of a good current price as the current P/B ratio is only some 77% of the 10 year average. The only place that does not show a good current price is the dividend yield. Of course, they have not raised the dividend for the last three years. The current dividend is 3.4% and the 5 year average is 3.6%.
When I look at what the analysts’ are saying, I find lots of Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations and 1 Sell recommendation. I do not find any underperform recommendations. The consensus would be a buy recommendation. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Analysts seem to think that this bank is well run. They also mention that TD will probably end up being a major player in the US. Others think that TD and Bank of Nova Scotia are the most likely banks to raise their dividends first. The stock price target over the next 12 months seems to be between $82 and $86.
This site has an interesting take on investing and it talks about the TD Bank.
I, of course, will be holding on to my TD Bank stock. I have too much in financials, so I will not be buying anymore.
They are a bank with full range of financial products and services for individuals and corporations in Canada, USA and internationally. Financial products and services include Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; Wealth Management; U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking; and Wholesale banking products. Its web site is here TD Bank. See my spreadsheet at td.htm.
With part of my money from RIM sale, I have bought some RIOCAN (TSX-REI.UN) stock.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
TD Bank
This is a bank (TSX-TD) I own and it has published unaudited 4th quarter results. The bank results are starting to come in, so I start to review all the banks that I follow. Analysts feel that dividends on banks will be raised next year. I cannot find that the five big banks saying much of anything on dividends. TD says they will provide some clarity on dividends in the next several months.
Until this latest recession, our banks gave very good dividend increases. If you look at the 5 and 10 year growth in dividends for TD, they are still at 9% and 10% per year respectively. In the last recession, which did not hit the banks like this one did, the dividend increases were down to 2.5% and 3.5% in 2003 and 2004. Most analysts feel that there will be increases in 2011.
For the year ending in October 2010, revenues are still down for the TD Bank, so there has not been any good growth here showing for the last 5 and 10 years to date. However, earnings have recovered this year. The growth in earnings over the past 5 and 10 years has been at 10% and 13% per year, respectively. If you had invested in this bank over the past 5 or 10 years, you would have made about 9% per year. Just over 3% of this return would have been from dividends. This is a very good return.
The other thing to mention is that TD is doing well, for a bank, as far as the Asset/Liability Ratio goes. It is running at 1.07 (well some other banks have a lower ratio at 1.04). The 5 and 10 year average of A/L Ratio is running at 1.06 for this bank.
The big surprise is that this bank is still on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). Usually, stocks are tossed off when they stop increasing their dividends.
I will be holding on to the bank stocks I have at the moment, including this one. Tomorrow, I will look and see what they analysts are saying about this bank.
TD is a bank with a full range of financial products and services for individuals and corporations in Canada, USA and internationally. Financial products and services include Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; Wealth Management; U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking; and Wholesale banking products. Its web site is here TD Bank. See my spreadsheet at td.htm.
I bought some more Davis and Henderson (TSX-DHF) with my RIM money. Stock is expected to do well in the long term, but not the short term. Dividends will be reduced next year when it because a corporation.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Until this latest recession, our banks gave very good dividend increases. If you look at the 5 and 10 year growth in dividends for TD, they are still at 9% and 10% per year respectively. In the last recession, which did not hit the banks like this one did, the dividend increases were down to 2.5% and 3.5% in 2003 and 2004. Most analysts feel that there will be increases in 2011.
For the year ending in October 2010, revenues are still down for the TD Bank, so there has not been any good growth here showing for the last 5 and 10 years to date. However, earnings have recovered this year. The growth in earnings over the past 5 and 10 years has been at 10% and 13% per year, respectively. If you had invested in this bank over the past 5 or 10 years, you would have made about 9% per year. Just over 3% of this return would have been from dividends. This is a very good return.
The other thing to mention is that TD is doing well, for a bank, as far as the Asset/Liability Ratio goes. It is running at 1.07 (well some other banks have a lower ratio at 1.04). The 5 and 10 year average of A/L Ratio is running at 1.06 for this bank.
The big surprise is that this bank is still on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). Usually, stocks are tossed off when they stop increasing their dividends.
I will be holding on to the bank stocks I have at the moment, including this one. Tomorrow, I will look and see what they analysts are saying about this bank.
TD is a bank with a full range of financial products and services for individuals and corporations in Canada, USA and internationally. Financial products and services include Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; Wealth Management; U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking; and Wholesale banking products. Its web site is here TD Bank. See my spreadsheet at td.htm.
I bought some more Davis and Henderson (TSX-DHF) with my RIM money. Stock is expected to do well in the long term, but not the short term. Dividends will be reduced next year when it because a corporation.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Monday, December 6, 2010
H&R Real Estate 2
I follow a number of REITs and this stock (TSX-HR.UN) is one that I follow. On Friday, I talked about this REIT having trouble in 2009 and decreased their distributions by 50%. As I also mentioned, they have started to increase their distributions again.
The Insider Trading report shows both a lot of Insider Buying and Insider Selling. Selling was at $6.3M and buying was at $3.4M, giving a net of $2.8M of selling. Most of the selling was by one director and most of the buying was by the CEO. Most of the buying by the CEO is very recent and after the selling by the director. You never know why people sell, but you know they must feel good about a company to buy, so the buying by the CEO is a positive. Both the CFO and other officers have move options than shares, however, the opposite is true of the CEO and directors. The recent dividend increases also show confidence in the future of the company.
When I look at the P/E ratio, I find that the 5 year median low is 11.2 and the 5 year median high is 28.5. I get a current P/E of 36.7 based on estimated earnings for 2010 and the forward P/E of 34. These P/E ratios are both quite high, on a relative and absolute basis. If you compare the price to the expected distributable income, I get a 5 year median ratio of 12.6 with a current ratio of 15.6. This current ratio, based on distributable income is not as relatively high as the P/E ratios. This would point to a more reasonable current stock price.
I get a Graham Price of $11.63 for 2010 and $12.06 for 2011. The current price is 70% higher than this year’s Graham Price and 67% higher than next year’s Graham Price. The reason for the low Graham Price is that there has virtually been no growth in the Book Value in the past 5 and 10 years. The Book Value is supposed to represent the break-up value of a company. The Book Value has gone up and down over the years, but it really has not grown. The Book Value is not exactly the same as the break-up value of a company, but I think that it is pointing out a problem.
When I look at the Price/Book Value Ratio, the current one of 1.78 is higher by 15% than the 10 year average of 1.43. This point to a current stock price that is high. The same thing is pointed out when looking at the yield. The median yield for this stock is 6.5%. The current one would be 4.5%. The current yield is way off the 10 year median high yield of 9% and it is even lower than the 10 year median low yield of 6.7%. So, this too would point to a rather high current stock price.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find lots of Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. There are also a few Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) I find that the Analysts are pleased about the current high occupancy rate (about 98%) for this REIT. There seems to be an expectation that the stock price will be close or at $22 in 12 month’s time.
What seems to impress the analysts is “The Bow” building they will shortly complete in Calgary for EnCana. When this is done, it is expected that there will be a good increase in distributable income as this building is turned over the EnCana. This should start happening in July 2011 and be completed in 2012. It was also the building of “The Bow” that caused trouble for this company in 2009. They were spending money building this building when vacancy rates short up due to the recession. They had a liquidity problem, but this has now been resolved.
The CEO is buying this company at close the current price of $19.84. Analysts have stated some clear and valid reasons for buying this REIT.
H&R Real Estate Investment trust is an open-ended real estate investment trust. They have a portfolio of office properties, single-tenant industrial properties, retail properties and development projects. They operate across Canada and US. Its web site is here H&R. See my spreadsheet at hr.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
The Insider Trading report shows both a lot of Insider Buying and Insider Selling. Selling was at $6.3M and buying was at $3.4M, giving a net of $2.8M of selling. Most of the selling was by one director and most of the buying was by the CEO. Most of the buying by the CEO is very recent and after the selling by the director. You never know why people sell, but you know they must feel good about a company to buy, so the buying by the CEO is a positive. Both the CFO and other officers have move options than shares, however, the opposite is true of the CEO and directors. The recent dividend increases also show confidence in the future of the company.
When I look at the P/E ratio, I find that the 5 year median low is 11.2 and the 5 year median high is 28.5. I get a current P/E of 36.7 based on estimated earnings for 2010 and the forward P/E of 34. These P/E ratios are both quite high, on a relative and absolute basis. If you compare the price to the expected distributable income, I get a 5 year median ratio of 12.6 with a current ratio of 15.6. This current ratio, based on distributable income is not as relatively high as the P/E ratios. This would point to a more reasonable current stock price.
I get a Graham Price of $11.63 for 2010 and $12.06 for 2011. The current price is 70% higher than this year’s Graham Price and 67% higher than next year’s Graham Price. The reason for the low Graham Price is that there has virtually been no growth in the Book Value in the past 5 and 10 years. The Book Value is supposed to represent the break-up value of a company. The Book Value has gone up and down over the years, but it really has not grown. The Book Value is not exactly the same as the break-up value of a company, but I think that it is pointing out a problem.
When I look at the Price/Book Value Ratio, the current one of 1.78 is higher by 15% than the 10 year average of 1.43. This point to a current stock price that is high. The same thing is pointed out when looking at the yield. The median yield for this stock is 6.5%. The current one would be 4.5%. The current yield is way off the 10 year median high yield of 9% and it is even lower than the 10 year median low yield of 6.7%. So, this too would point to a rather high current stock price.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find lots of Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. There are also a few Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) I find that the Analysts are pleased about the current high occupancy rate (about 98%) for this REIT. There seems to be an expectation that the stock price will be close or at $22 in 12 month’s time.
What seems to impress the analysts is “The Bow” building they will shortly complete in Calgary for EnCana. When this is done, it is expected that there will be a good increase in distributable income as this building is turned over the EnCana. This should start happening in July 2011 and be completed in 2012. It was also the building of “The Bow” that caused trouble for this company in 2009. They were spending money building this building when vacancy rates short up due to the recession. They had a liquidity problem, but this has now been resolved.
The CEO is buying this company at close the current price of $19.84. Analysts have stated some clear and valid reasons for buying this REIT.
H&R Real Estate Investment trust is an open-ended real estate investment trust. They have a portfolio of office properties, single-tenant industrial properties, retail properties and development projects. They operate across Canada and US. Its web site is here H&R. See my spreadsheet at hr.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, December 3, 2010
H&R Real Estate
I follow a number of REITs and this stock (TSX-HR.UN) is one that I follow. H&R Real Estate was having trouble in 2009 and decreased their dividend by 50%. However, they have since increased their dividends twice in 2010 and the dividends are up about 20% so far this year. They have also announced another 3.5% increase in the dividends to be paid in 2011. However, the dividends are still below those of 2008, which were $1.44 per share. They will be $.90 per share come 2011.
This is a REIT stock, and if you had held it for the last 10 years you would have earned approximately 14% total return, with some 7% of this return coming from distributions. With dividend increases on this stock likely to average around 3% in the future, you would probably be earning, on an investment in this stock today, just over 5% in 5 years and just over 6% in 10 years time. This is called the dividend growth potential of this stock.
When you look at earnings for this stock, it hit a high in 2003 and drifted lower ever since. It is just this year, 2010, that the stock is expect to earn more than that of 2003. The cash flow has done better, but it has only been increasing at the average rate of 4% per year. This is not great, but it is not terrible either. The thing is that the payout ratio of the cash flow has been very high, with an average of about 90% until 2009. This ratio has moderated lately and it is expected to be about 50% for this year (2010).
Over the years, the book value has gone up and down, but its growth has essentially been about 0% for the last 5 and 10 years. This often happens in trust companies where a lot of the earnings are paid out in distributions. The problem with revenues for this company is that, although they have gone up at an ok rate, the revenues per share have not. This trust has been issuing new shares each year at an average rate of just over 12% per year for the last 10 years.
On Monday, I will talk about what the analysts are saying about this stock.
H&R Real Estate Investment trust is an open-ended real estate investment trust. They have a portfolio of office properties, single-tenant industrial properties, retail properties and development projects. They operate principally in the Greater Toronto Area. Its web site is here H&R. See my spreadsheet at hr.htm.
I sold my remaining RIM (TSX-RIM) stock today. I have made a lot of money on it and I would rather have a nice dividend paying stock now. I, of course, have to regrets buying RIM. I love tech stock.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
This is a REIT stock, and if you had held it for the last 10 years you would have earned approximately 14% total return, with some 7% of this return coming from distributions. With dividend increases on this stock likely to average around 3% in the future, you would probably be earning, on an investment in this stock today, just over 5% in 5 years and just over 6% in 10 years time. This is called the dividend growth potential of this stock.
When you look at earnings for this stock, it hit a high in 2003 and drifted lower ever since. It is just this year, 2010, that the stock is expect to earn more than that of 2003. The cash flow has done better, but it has only been increasing at the average rate of 4% per year. This is not great, but it is not terrible either. The thing is that the payout ratio of the cash flow has been very high, with an average of about 90% until 2009. This ratio has moderated lately and it is expected to be about 50% for this year (2010).
Over the years, the book value has gone up and down, but its growth has essentially been about 0% for the last 5 and 10 years. This often happens in trust companies where a lot of the earnings are paid out in distributions. The problem with revenues for this company is that, although they have gone up at an ok rate, the revenues per share have not. This trust has been issuing new shares each year at an average rate of just over 12% per year for the last 10 years.
On Monday, I will talk about what the analysts are saying about this stock.
H&R Real Estate Investment trust is an open-ended real estate investment trust. They have a portfolio of office properties, single-tenant industrial properties, retail properties and development projects. They operate principally in the Greater Toronto Area. Its web site is here H&R. See my spreadsheet at hr.htm.
I sold my remaining RIM (TSX-RIM) stock today. I have made a lot of money on it and I would rather have a nice dividend paying stock now. I, of course, have to regrets buying RIM. I love tech stock.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Valener Inc 2
This stock (TSX-VNR) used to be called Gaz Metro (TSX-GXM.UN), but it is now Valener Inc. The company has also changed to a corporation. This occurred on 1st October 2010. However, the switch to a corporation was done differently than most. The only part that becomes Valener Inc is that portion of Gaz Metro that was publically owned. The other holders of Gaz Metro were, basically, Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB); French utility GDF Suez; Caisse de depot pension fund; and SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC). On November 2nd, 2010, SNC-Lavalin agreed to sell their 10% interest to a group of Financial Institutions, and so they no longer own any share in this company.
There is no action on the Insider Trading report, no Insider Buying and no Insider Selling, mainly because this report just starts in October 2010 and does not run for a full year. Caisse de depot is known more for their political rather than financial investments. However, SNC-Lavalin and Enbridge are more astute buyers, and SNC-Lavalin just sold their shares. I own shares in Enbridge, so Valener would not be a good purchase for me.
Gaz Metro was paying out a very high percentage of the companies earnings in distributions. This is common for an income trust, but not wise for a corporation. They also have a history of paying out a high percentage of cash flow. Again this is common for an income trust, but not for a corporation. I noticed that they have lowered their distributions (or dividend) payouts, but have they lowered them enough. I also wonder about the estimates that I have picked up.
When I look at the P/E Ratios, I get a 5 year median low of 10.8 and a 5 year median high of 12.8. On sites that use last 12 months earnings to calculate the current P/E, they show a P/E of 13.5. Using the estimates I got I get a current P/E even higher at 20.3. So, the P/E is probably a bit on the high side for this stock. I get a current Graham Price of $16.52 and one for September 2010 of $16.06. The current price of $17.07 is just 3% above the current Graham Price and about 6% above the September one. Except for the last few years, this stock’s price has always been higher than the Graham price.
For the Price/Book Value Ratio, if we use the Book Value of September 2010, this ratio is 2.20, which is about 95% of the 10 year average of 2.32. This stock currently has a dividend yield of 5.9%, which is quite good. The 5 year average is 7.8%. However, this stock just reduced their dividend on change to a corporation. A lot of income trusts are doing the same. So basically, it appears that the price is neither high nor low.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, what I find is lots and lots of Hold recommendations. There are also some Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) Mostly it seems that analysts think the price is too high as they give stock price over the next 12 months from around $15.50 to just under $17.00. Obviously, they think the stock is over priced. One analyst thought this company suitable for investors looking for long term stable income.
I will continue to follow this stock, but will not buy, as I already own Enbridge.
Valener is a company whose core business is the distribution of Natural Gas in Quebec. It is also, indirectly, the sole shareholder of the Vermont Gas System (VGS), and the Green Mountain Power Corp (GMP), the second largest electricity supplier in Vermont. Its web site is here Valener. See my spreadsheet at vnr.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
There is no action on the Insider Trading report, no Insider Buying and no Insider Selling, mainly because this report just starts in October 2010 and does not run for a full year. Caisse de depot is known more for their political rather than financial investments. However, SNC-Lavalin and Enbridge are more astute buyers, and SNC-Lavalin just sold their shares. I own shares in Enbridge, so Valener would not be a good purchase for me.
Gaz Metro was paying out a very high percentage of the companies earnings in distributions. This is common for an income trust, but not wise for a corporation. They also have a history of paying out a high percentage of cash flow. Again this is common for an income trust, but not for a corporation. I noticed that they have lowered their distributions (or dividend) payouts, but have they lowered them enough. I also wonder about the estimates that I have picked up.
When I look at the P/E Ratios, I get a 5 year median low of 10.8 and a 5 year median high of 12.8. On sites that use last 12 months earnings to calculate the current P/E, they show a P/E of 13.5. Using the estimates I got I get a current P/E even higher at 20.3. So, the P/E is probably a bit on the high side for this stock. I get a current Graham Price of $16.52 and one for September 2010 of $16.06. The current price of $17.07 is just 3% above the current Graham Price and about 6% above the September one. Except for the last few years, this stock’s price has always been higher than the Graham price.
For the Price/Book Value Ratio, if we use the Book Value of September 2010, this ratio is 2.20, which is about 95% of the 10 year average of 2.32. This stock currently has a dividend yield of 5.9%, which is quite good. The 5 year average is 7.8%. However, this stock just reduced their dividend on change to a corporation. A lot of income trusts are doing the same. So basically, it appears that the price is neither high nor low.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, what I find is lots and lots of Hold recommendations. There are also some Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) Mostly it seems that analysts think the price is too high as they give stock price over the next 12 months from around $15.50 to just under $17.00. Obviously, they think the stock is over priced. One analyst thought this company suitable for investors looking for long term stable income.
I will continue to follow this stock, but will not buy, as I already own Enbridge.
Valener is a company whose core business is the distribution of Natural Gas in Quebec. It is also, indirectly, the sole shareholder of the Vermont Gas System (VGS), and the Green Mountain Power Corp (GMP), the second largest electricity supplier in Vermont. Its web site is here Valener. See my spreadsheet at vnr.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Valener Inc
This stock used to be called Gaz Metro (TSX-GXM.UN), but it is now Valener Inc (TSX-VNR). The company has also changed to a corporation. This occurred on 1st October 2010. This stock has a financial year that end on 30th of September of each year. So the financial statements for 2010 (that is 30 September 2010) are in.
It is hard to figure out what past information to compare with the current information. Gaz Metro was owned only 29% by the public and Valener Inc is to hold the public shares. The other 71% was owned by gas distributors and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec.
The company certainly does not have a great recent record with dividends. This company first shocked the market in 2006 when it lowered its distributions. This company was supposed to be a very stable, very conservative stock. Since it originally reduced their dividends in 2006, they reduced them also in 2007 and then kept them flat.
With the change to a corporation, dividends are being reduced again. A lot of partnerships and income trusts changing to corporations have reduced their dividends. This is true. However, the reduced dividend is coming in at $1.00 per share and this company is only expected to earn $.84 to $.85 per share over the next few years. Estimates for cash flow are also low. Certainly, this is stock is currently not a great dividend paying stock.
If anyone made any money on this stock, it would only be over the past 10 years. The thing is that the stock peaked in 2005 and it has yet to recover. It is not just the current recession where this stock has been losing money for shareholders. The total return over the past 10 years has basically been all dividends. Less than 1% of the total return over the past 10 years is from capital gain. 99% of the total return has been from dividends. I must admit that income trusts generally paid out most of their earnings in distributions, so this structure of the total return is not surprising.
The only place where this stock seems to have done well in the past 5 and 10 years is on Return of Equity. The 5 year average ROE is 16% and for the financial year ending September 2010, the ROE was 19%. None of this seems to have helped the shareholders as the Book Value has hardly changed over this time. (However, this has been true of many income trusts also.) Now Valener Inc says that the Book Value for its shareholders is $589,000, which would imply that the book value has doubled for the public shareholders. This does not seem plausible for me.
Tomorrow, I will review what the analysts currently think about this stock.
Valener is a company whose core business is the distribution of Natural Gas in Quebec. It is also, indirectly, the sole shareholder of the Vermont Gas System (VGS), and the Green Mountain Power Corp (GMP), the second largest electricity supplier in Vermont. Its web site is here Valener. See my spreadsheet at vnr.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
It is hard to figure out what past information to compare with the current information. Gaz Metro was owned only 29% by the public and Valener Inc is to hold the public shares. The other 71% was owned by gas distributors and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec.
The company certainly does not have a great recent record with dividends. This company first shocked the market in 2006 when it lowered its distributions. This company was supposed to be a very stable, very conservative stock. Since it originally reduced their dividends in 2006, they reduced them also in 2007 and then kept them flat.
With the change to a corporation, dividends are being reduced again. A lot of partnerships and income trusts changing to corporations have reduced their dividends. This is true. However, the reduced dividend is coming in at $1.00 per share and this company is only expected to earn $.84 to $.85 per share over the next few years. Estimates for cash flow are also low. Certainly, this is stock is currently not a great dividend paying stock.
If anyone made any money on this stock, it would only be over the past 10 years. The thing is that the stock peaked in 2005 and it has yet to recover. It is not just the current recession where this stock has been losing money for shareholders. The total return over the past 10 years has basically been all dividends. Less than 1% of the total return over the past 10 years is from capital gain. 99% of the total return has been from dividends. I must admit that income trusts generally paid out most of their earnings in distributions, so this structure of the total return is not surprising.
The only place where this stock seems to have done well in the past 5 and 10 years is on Return of Equity. The 5 year average ROE is 16% and for the financial year ending September 2010, the ROE was 19%. None of this seems to have helped the shareholders as the Book Value has hardly changed over this time. (However, this has been true of many income trusts also.) Now Valener Inc says that the Book Value for its shareholders is $589,000, which would imply that the book value has doubled for the public shareholders. This does not seem plausible for me.
Tomorrow, I will review what the analysts currently think about this stock.
Valener is a company whose core business is the distribution of Natural Gas in Quebec. It is also, indirectly, the sole shareholder of the Vermont Gas System (VGS), and the Green Mountain Power Corp (GMP), the second largest electricity supplier in Vermont. Its web site is here Valener. See my spreadsheet at vnr.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
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