Is it a good company at a reasonable price? With this company, income growth seems to have been the problem. Analysts think that income will growth this year. I also noted that the CEO has bought shares in the past year. It is a small company that is currently cheap, so if you are interested in the company, caution is advised.
I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed earnings are down this year because revenue is down this year and there is a higher percentage for cost against revenue. I get an expense ratio of 0.95 for 2025. The 10 year median ratio is 0.93 with the 5 year median ratio at 0.94. This company hit a high stock price of $11.44 in 2021 and the stock price is down by 39% since then. EPS has been going down since 2021. I also noticed that over the past year both the CEO and one Director bought more shares.
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2025 and expected growth over this year. As you can see from the chart below, income has not been growing over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect income to grow this year. Also note that Revenue hit a low point 5 years ago.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth | 49.22% | 8.33% | 1.12% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | -8.70% | -1.80% | 6.35% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | -11.42% | -2.40% | 6.26% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | 2.21% | 0.44% | ||
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 12.00% | 2.29% | 0.00% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 1.82% | 0.36% | 3.88% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth | 23.47% | 2.13% | 4.05% | <-this year |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | -34.38% | -4.12% | 42.86% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | -40.40% | -5.04% | 42.15% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | 59.68% | 4.79% | <-this year | |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | 82.61% | 6.21% | 0.00% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | -53.92% | -7.46% | 19.40% | <-this year |
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,015.20 you would have bought 60 shares at $16.92 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $222.90 in dividends. The stock would be worth $412.50. Your total return would have been $635.10. This would be a total loss of 5.24% per year with 8.62% from capital loss and 3.38% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.92 | $1,015.20 | 60 | 10 | $222.90 | $412.20 | $635.10 |
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth has stopped. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6%) at 6.03%. The 5 year median dividend yield is good at 5.31%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4%) at 4.48% and 3.16%. The dividend growth has stopped as there has been not dividend increases since 2022 when there was a dividend increase of 5%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) should be improved. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is on the high side at 67% with 5 year coverage at 58%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 67% with 5 year coverage at 58%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is non-calculable because of negative cash flows. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 40% with 5 year coverage at 46%.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 66.67% | 58.47% |
| AEPS | 66.67% | 58.47% |
| CFPS | -4.86% | -98.45% |
| FCF | 39.50% | 45.71% |
Debt Ratios are very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.35 and currently at 0.36. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.70 and 2.70 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.97 and 2.97 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 1.51 and 0.51 and currently at 1.51 and 0.51.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| Intang/GW | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| Liquidity | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| Liq. + CF | 3.24 | 3.24 |
| Debt Ratio | 2.97 | 2.97 |
| Leverage | 1.51 | 1.51 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.51 | 0.51 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 2.29% | -0.70% | -5.73% | 5.04% |
| 2015 | 10 | 6.21% | -5.24% | -8.62% | 3.38% |
| 2010 | 15 | 11.93% | 9.66% | 4.12% | 5.55% |
| 2005 | 20 | 11.23% | 6.11% | 2.31% | 3.80% |
| 2000 | 25 | 10.16% | 6.69% | 3.37% | 3.32% |
| 1995 | 30 | 5.40% | 2.85% | 2.55% | |
| 1990 | 35 | 11.34% | 8.10% | 3.24% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.21, 11.16 and 13.09. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.97, 10.60 and 12.88. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.97, 11.73 and 15.34. The current ratio is 7.73 based on a stock price of $6.96 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $0.90. The current ratio is below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) Data. They have occasionally given an AEPS. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.21, 11.16 and 13.09. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.82, 10.43 and 12.71. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.44, 9.89 and 12.27. The current ratio is 7.73 based on a stock price of $6.96 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $0.90. The current ratio is below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $14.73. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.56, 0.69 and 0.80. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.47 based on a stock price of $6.96. The current ratio is below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.02. The current ratio is 0.65 based on a Book Value of $407M, Book Value per Share of $10.71 and a stock price of $6.96. The current ratio is 36% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap. A ratio of 0.65 is a very low ratio. A normal ratio is considered to be around 1.50.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.76. The current ratio is 4.02 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $65.8M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.73 and a stock price of $6.96. The current ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.16%. The current dividend yield is 6.03% based on dividends of $0.42 and a stock price of $6.96. The current dividend yield is 91% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap. Although this test is better when dividends are increasing and dividend stopped increasing in 2022.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.48%. The current dividend yield is 6.03% based on dividends of $0.42 and a stock price of $6.96. The current dividend yield is 35% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap. Although this test is better when dividends are increasing and dividend stopped increasing in 2022.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.60. The current P/S Ratio is 0.41 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $640.2M, Revenue per Share of $16.83 and a stock price of $6.96. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The thing is that all the tests are saying the stock price is cheap.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find one Buy (1) recommendation. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $8.00 with a high of $8.00 and low of $8.00. There is just one analyst following this stock. A 12 month stock price of $8.00 implies a total return of 20.98% with 14.94% from capital gains and 6.03% from dividends based on a current stock price of $6.96.
There are few analysts on Stock Chase following this stock. The last comments were in 2024 where the analyst said there are some headwinds in the space. He also said that the company is in a cyclical business. Adam Othman on Motley Fool in December 2024 said the company offered healthy dividends and solid yields. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2025 results.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance put out a rather negative report on this company in January 2026. Their conclusion is Exco Technologies has been investing more capital into the business, but returns on that capital haven't increased. Simply Wall Street has one warning of earnings have declined by 4.2% per year over past 5 years.
Exco Technologies Ltd is a designer, developer, and manufacturer of dies, moulds, components and assemblies, and consumable equipment for the die-cast, extrusion, and automotive industries. The company reports in two business segments namely, the Casting and Extrusion segment and Automotive Solutions segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States and also has its presence in Canada, Europe, Asia, and other regions. Its web site is here Exco Technologies Ltd .
The last stock I wrote about was about was Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Cogeco Communications Inc (TSX-CCA, OTC-CGEAF) ... learn more on Friday, January 30, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Cashback Credit Cards.... learn more on Thursday, January 29, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
No comments:
Post a Comment