Friday, August 22, 2025

Aecon Group Inc

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. Debt Ratios are need improving and the company has too much debt. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improvement and analyst think this will happen in 2026. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Aecon Group Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock has mostly done well for shareholders, but I would worry about the amount of debt them have. It is classified as a medium risk level. Analysts think that they DPRs will soon be at a good level. The stock price testing is putting it at a current reasonable price.

I do not own this stock of Aecon Group Inc (TSX-ARE, OTC-AEGXF). This stock has been coming up on Canada Stock Channel Weekly email in 2020. Site is Canada Stock Channel.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that in 2024 they basically lost money because of a greater decline in Revenue that in expenses. Analysts do expect this stock to return to profitability in 2025. If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,006.74 you would have bought 94 shares at $10.71 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $556.48 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,558.68. Your total return would have been $3,115.16. This would be a total return of 13.35% per year with 9.78% from capital gain and 3.57% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$10.71 $1,006.74 94 10 $556.48 $2,558.68 $3,115.16

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.70%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 4.23%, 3.26% and 2.46%. The dividends are increasing at a low rate (less than 8% per year) at 6.2% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 2.7%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improvement and analyst think this will happen in 2026. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is non-calculable due to an earnings loss with 5 year coverage far too high at 96%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is non-calculable due to an earnings loss with 5 year coverage far too high at 97%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is non-calculable due to a negative cash flow with 5 year coverage good at 39%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flows (FCF) are non-calculable due to a negative cash flow with 5 year coverage at far too high at 720% and 396%. There is no agreement on what FCF is in 2024 and varies from a negative 23M to a negative 130M. Analysts think that the DPRs for EPS and AEPS will improve in 2026.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 0.00% 95.80%
AEPS $0.00 97.12%
CFPS $0.00 38.71%
FCF 1 -36.21% 719.97%
FCF 2 -203.93% 396.28%

Debt Ratios are need improving and the company has too much debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.15 and currently at 0.37. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is low at 1.15 and 1.20 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios do not improve at 1.12 and currently at 1.17. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is low at 1.43 and 1.35 currently. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are too high at 3.37 and 2.37 and currently at 3.88 and 2.88. I prefer these ratios to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.15 0.37
Intang/GW 0.07 0.18
Liquidity 1.15 1.20
Liq. + CF 1.12 1.17
Debt Ratio 1.43 1.35
Leverage 3.37 3.88
D/E Ratio 2.37 2.88

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below. Note that dividends were not paid between 2003 and 2007.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 6.16% 12.60% 9.21% 3.39%
2014 10 7.99% 13.35% 9.78% 3.57%
2009 15 9.26% 6.31% 4.05% 2.26%
2004 20 #NUM! 9.71% 7.36% 2.35%
1999 25 8.79% 11.26% 8.87% 2.38%
1996 28 9.37% 7.55% 1.83%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.84, 11.45 and 14.06. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.15, 17.71 and 20.27. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.62, 12.14 and 16.91. The current P/E Ratio is 108.16 based on a stock price of $20.55 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $0.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Note that EPS expected in 2025 is quite low after an earnings loss in 2024.

However, the EPS estimate for 2026 is $1.46. This implies a P/E Ratio of 14.08. If you compare that to the 10 year ratios above, it is lower than the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. In this case the stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.84, 11.45 and 14.06. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.95, 14.31 and 16.67. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.62, 12.14 and 16.91. The current P/E Ratio is 158.08 based on a stock price of $20.55 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $0.13. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Note that AEPS expected in 2025 is quite low after an earnings loss in 2024.

However, the AEPS estimate for 2026 is $1.42. This implies a P/E Ratio of 14.47. If you compare that to the 10 year ratios above, it is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. In this case the stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $7.76. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.86, 1.02 and 1.22. The current ratio is 2.65 based on a stock price of $20.55. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, the Graham Price for 2026 is $21.51. This produces a ratio of 0.96 based on a stock price of $20.55. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. In this case the stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.24. The current ratio is 1.46 based on a book Value of $887.8M, Book Value per Share of 14.08 and a stock price of $20.55. The current ratio is 17% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.52. The current ratio is 11.68 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $1.76, Cash Flow of $111M, and a stock price of $20.55. The current ratio is 111% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.46%. The current dividend yield is 3.70% based on dividends of $0.76 and a stock price of $20.55. The current dividend yield is 50% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.26%. The current dividend yield is 3.70% based on dividends of $0.76 and a stock price of $20.55. The current dividend yield is 13% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio 0.29. The current ratio is 0.25 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $5,104M, Revenue per Share of $80.94 and a stock price of $20.55. The current ratio is 12% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. The 10 year dividend yield test says this. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The rest of the testing is showing the stock price from cheap to reasonable. It is really only the P/CF Ratio test is showing the stock price as expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (3), and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.27 with a high of $28.00 and low of $19.00. The consensus stock price of $23.27 implies a total return of 16.93% with 13.24% from capital gains and 3.70% from dividends based on a current stock price of $20.55.

There are mixed views of this stock on Stock Chase. One says that the company is held back by legacy issues. One likes WSP better. Some think it is a buy because it is cheap. Another analyst says it is risky. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks that this is a stock to buy and hold as housing ramps up. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says this stock is a reliable dividend stock with a strong backlog. The company put out a Press Release about their year-end results for 2024. The company put out a Press Release about their second quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance looks at this company and thinks it is paying too much out in Dividends. Simply Wall Street has two warnings out on this stock of dividend of 3.79% is not well covered by earnings or free cash flows; and large one-off items impacting financial results.

Aecon Group Inc is a Canada-based company that operates in two segments: Construction and Concessions. The Construction segment includes various aspects of the construction of public and private infrastructure projects, mainly in the transportation sector. Its concessions segment is engaged in the development, financing, construction, and operation of infrastructure projects. The company generates the maximum revenue from the Construction segment. Its web site is here Aecon Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was GFL Environmental Inc (TSX-GFL, NYSE-GFL) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX-CHE.UN, OTC-CGIFF) ... learn more on Monday, August 24, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

GFL Environmental Inc

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is could still be reasonable, but probably not. Debt Ratios are currently fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on GFL Environmental Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company certainly has great possibilities. It is very risky. It is certainly rapidly growing. It is sort of a dividend growth company, but dividends are exceeding low. The stock price is at the top of its range. It would seem to be relatively expensive currently.

I do not own this stock of GFL Environmental Inc (TSX-GFL, NYSE-GFL). GFL Environmental (TSX-GFL) is small, pays dividend and was talked about by Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they did not have a good start to this year. The second quarter has revenue and Adjusted EPS down. Analysts also expect this year to have a lower Revenue and lower AEPS. Analyst then expect next year to be better and perhaps a full recovery by 2027.

This company made an unusually large amount for EPS for the first two quarters of 2025, coming in at $9.44. The first two quarters of 2024 had a loss of $1.84. There was a profit in 2025 mainly because of income from discontinued operations.

I noticed that the financials are in CDN$, but the dividends are paid in US$. All the estimates are provided in CDN$.

If you had invested in this company in December 2019, for $1,008.00 you would have bought 45 shares at $22.40 per share. In December 2024, after 5 years you would have received $13.69 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,883.60. Your total return would have been $2,897.29. This would be a total return of 23.57% per year with 23.39% from capital gain and 0.74% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$22.40 $1,008.00 45 5 $13.69 $2,883.60 $2,897.29

The dividends are low, so if you buy this stock what sort of dividends would you get in the future? This chart is an attempt to show this. If dividends continue to increase by 8.29% as they have in the past 4 years, what you would get in dividends in 5, 10 and 15 years is shown in the Dividends Paid (Div Pd) column. The next column shows what your yield on the current stock price of $70.00 would be. The last column shows the percentage of your stock’s price would be covered by dividends in 5, 10 and 15 years. Dividends are paid in US$.

Div Pd Div Yield Years At IRR Div Cov
$0.09 0.18% 5 8.29% 0.72%
$0.14 0.27% 10 8.29% 1.61%
$0.20 0.40% 15 8.29% 2.94%

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at just 0.12%. Almost no dividends. The 4 year median dividend yield is also low at 0.12%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% per year) at 8.3% per year over the past 4 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 10%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is non-calculable because of earnings losses. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 9% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR on AEPS is the important one. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 2% with 5 year coverage at 2%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 8% with 5 year coverage at 11%. There is no agreement on what the FCF is.

Item Cur 4 Years
EPS -3.75% -3.78%
AEPS 9.42% 12.96%
CFPS 1.53% 1.60%
FCF 7.72% 10.93%

Debt Ratios are currently fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.34 and currently at 0.26. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is far too low at 0.54 and 0.67 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still low at 1.02 and currently fine at 1.52. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.52 and 1.74 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are too high at 3.02 and 1.99 and currently fine at 2.42 and 1.39.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.34 0.26
Intang/GW 0.41 0.32
Liquidity 0.54 0.67
Liq. + CF 1.02 1.52
Debt Ratio 1.52 1.74
Leverage 3.02 2.42
D/E Ratio 1.99 1.39

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 5 to the end of 2024 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 11.65% 23.57% 23.39% 0.17%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 5 to the end of 2024 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 8.29% 21.71% 21.53% 0.18%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and so unusable. Also, the P/E Ratios for past 10 years and historically are also negative and unusable. The P/E for 2025 is 7.75 and a good ratio, but with an unusually large EPS that will probably not be repeated for some time. EPS losses are again expected in 2026 and 2027.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 65.31, 80.78 and 96.24. (There are only 5 years of data.) The current ratio is 109.38 based on AEPS estimate for 2025 of $0.64 and a stock price $70.00. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 5 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I noticed that the P/AEPS Ratio for 2026 is 63.06 based on a stock price of $70.00 and AEPS estimate for $1.11. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 5 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $17.08. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.34, 3.02 and 3.70. The current ratio is 4.10 based on a stock price of $70.00. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 5 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The Graham Price for 2026 is $22.49. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.34, 3.02 and 3.70. The 2026 ratio is 3.11 based on a stock price of $70.00. This ratio is between the median and the high ratio of the 5 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 5-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.53. The current ratio is 3.46 based on a stock price of $70.00, Book Value of $7,662M and Book Value per Share of $20.25. The current ratio is 37% above the 5 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I have Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $18.85. This implies a ratio of 3.71 based on a stock price of $70.00 and a Book Value of $7,130M. Here the ratio is 47% above the 5 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 6-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 16.48. The current ratio is 16.97 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $4.13, Cash Flow of $1,561M, and a stock price of $70.00. This ratio is 3% above the 6 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 4 year and historical median dividend yield of 0.14%. The current dividend yield is 0.12% based on dividends of $0.0602 and a stock price of $50.48. This dividend yield is 13% below the 4 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$ because the dividends are paid in US$. You sort of get the same results in CDN$.

The 6-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.32. The current ratio is 4.03 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $6,575M, Revenue per Share of $17.38 and a stock price of $70.00. The current ratio is 74% above the 6 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is could still be reasonable, but probably not. The dividend yield test says that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median. The P/S Ratio test does not concur and shows the stock price is expensive. The problem with test using EPS and AEPS is negative earnings or volatility in the earnings. If you look at the price chart on this stock, it is at almost at an all-time high. Other tests vary from reasonable and above the median or expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (8), Buy (4), and Hold (3). The consensus is a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price is $74.25 with a high of 89.00 and low of $58.00. The consensus stock price of $74.25 implies a total return of 6.19% with 6.07% from capital gains and 0.12% from dividends based on a current stock price of $70.00.

There is only one analyst comment on Stock Chase for 2025. The recommendation is a Buy. He says it is a wonderful business run by really good people. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says this stock carries risks but it has the characteristics long term investors look for. Tony Dong on Motley Fool talks about two garbage companies that are growing earnings above the average rates. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2024. The company put out a Press Release on their second quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They are concerned about the impact of Unusual Items. The company also got money from an unusual Tax Situation. Simply Wall Street has four warnings on this stock of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 17.8% per year for the next 3 years; interest payments are not well covered by earnings; large one-off items impacting financial results; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months.

GFL Environmental Inc is an environmental services company. The company's geographical segments are Canada and the United States. The company derives the majority of its revenue from the United States. Its web site is here GFL Environmental Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (TSX-BDGI, OTC-BADFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Aecon Group Inc (TSX-ARE, OTC-AEGXF) ... learn more on Friday, August 22, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian Dividend Stocks to Buy.... learn more on Thursday, August 21, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, August 18, 2025

Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be reasonable, but certainly at the high end. Debt Ratios are generally good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are generally good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company is growing, but rather unevenly, but it is growing. The risk level is high on this stock. I like the dividend yield tests because it tells you a lot about how people at a company think about their company. The stock price might still be reasonable, but if you buy, you should be cautious of the risks.

I do not own this stock of Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (TSX-BDGI, OTC-BDGIF). I started to follow this stock after reading a couple of articles in February 2012 in the G&M that talked about the company. The first article looked at what the pros who manage small-cap funds are buying. Badger was one of 10 stocks mentioned and it looked like an interesting stock. It is a dividend paying small cap. The second article looked at why stocks might appeal to a conservative investor looking for income.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the US symbol is now BDGIF. It used to be BADFF. I do not know when this change was made. I noticed that the stock price has increased by 58% in 2025. This is a nice increase and will give people who bought this stock in the last 5 or 10 years, a better return than they received at the end of 2024.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,005.10 you would have bought 38 shares at $26.45 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $204.78 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,363.44. Your total return would have been $1,568.22. This would be a total return of 4.84% per year with 3.10% from capital gain and 1.74% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$26.45 $1,005.10 38 10 $204.78 $1,363.44 $1,568.22

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is low (under2%) at just 1.40%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also low at 1.91%, 1.65%, and 1.99%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 4.8% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 4.2%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are generally good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 36% with 5 year coverage high at 67%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Operations Cash Flow (AOCF) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 16%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 74% with 5 year coverage at 93%. But there is no agreement on what the FCF is. The range for 2024 is from $35.2M to $69.6M. My calculation used the lower figure.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 35.62% 67.21%
AOCF 9.69% 16.42%
CFPS 9.63% 13.91%
FCF 73.64% 93.18%

Debt Ratios are generally good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.20 and currently at 0.16. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is fine at 1.43 and 1.56 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are good at 2.32 and currently at 2.59. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.63 and 1.59 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine at 2.59 and 1.59 and currently at 2.70 and 1.70.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.20 0.16
Intang/GW 0.03 0.02
Liquidity 1.43 1.56
Liq. + CF 2.32 2.59
Debt Ratio 1.63 1.59
Leverage 2.59 2.70
D/E Ratio 1.59 1.70

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2024 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 4.84% 2.20% 0.42% 1.78%
2014 10 7.07% 4.84% 3.10% 1.74%
2009 15 3.59% 18.77% 14.43% 4.35%
2004 20 7.07% 13.29% 9.55% 3.74%
1999 25 14.52% 11.01% 3.51%
1997 27 10.77% 8.46% 2.31%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2024 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 2.72% -0.46% -2.25% 1.79%
2014 10 4.78% 1.87% 0.23% 1.65%
2009 15 1.41% 16.35% 11.95% 4.40%
2004 20 6.12% 14.37% 9.51% 4.85%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.67, 21.65 and 22.64. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.51, 22.35 and 27.21. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.54, 15.82 and 19.23. The current ratio is 20.16 based on a stock price of $53.40 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $2.65. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Operations Cash Flow (AOCF). The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Operations Cash Flow Ratios are 5.42, 7.27 and 8.34. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.40, 8.31 and 10.60. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.60, 8.71 and 10.82. The current ratio is 6.71 based on a stock price of $53.40 and AOCF for the last 12 months of $7.96. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $25.49. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.57, 2.05 and 2.47. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.10 based on a stock price of $53.40. The current ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.44. The current ratio is 4.90 based on a Book Value of $367.7M, Book Value per Share of $10.90, and a stock price of $53.40. The current ratio is 42% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $12.43. This implies a ratio of 4.30 and a Book Value of $419.4M. This ratio is 25% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.07. The current ratio is 7.79 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $6.858, Cash Flow of $231.4M and a stock price of $53.40. This ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.99%. The current dividend yield is 1.40% based on dividends of $0.743 and a stock price of $53.40. The current dividend yield is 29% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.65%. The current dividend yield is 1.40% based on dividends of $0.743 and a stock price of $53.40. The current dividend yield is 15% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.94. The current P/S Ratio is 1.64 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $805M, Revenue per Share of $23.86 and a stock price of $53.40. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be reasonable, but certainly at the high end. The 10 year dividend yield test says that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. The P/S Ratio test is saying that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. The rest of the testing ranges from cheap to expensive. The Graham Test is a good one and it says that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (2), and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $58.64 with a high of $63.00 and low of $50.00. The consensus 12 month stock price implies a total return of 11.22% with 9.81% from capital gains and 1.40% from dividends based on a current stock price of $53.40.

There are few analysts on Stock Chase covering this stock. The one for this year calls it a buy. The ones for last year called it a buy also. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says that this company has had a great start to its year with the June quarterly report. Karen Thomas on Motley Fool says that this is a stock to buy and hold for the long term. The company put out via The Canadian Press a press release on their 2024 annual results. The company put out a Press Release on their second quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance put out a positive report on this stock. They have one warning of has a high level of debt.

Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd is North America's provider of non-destructive excavating and related services, with operations in both the United States and Canada. Badger's two reportable segments are Canada and the United States, which is the key revenue generating market. Its web site is here Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Superior Plus Corp (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be GFL Environmental Inc (TSX-GFL, NYSE-GFL) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 20, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Automakers and Subscriptions.... learn more on Tuesday, August 19, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, August 15, 2025

Superior Plus Corp

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Paying Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be cheap. Debt Ratios need improving and showing far too much debt. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) will probably be fine going forward. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth negative. See my spreadsheet on Superior Plus Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? With this stock, I would worry about the amount of the debt and the lack of growth in revenue. I think that they should have cut the dividend a lot more when they because a corporation in 2009. I would not be currently interested in this stock. However, my testing is showing that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I do not own this stock of Superior Plus Corp (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF). I started to follow this stock as it was an income trust company that was talked about in the Money Reporter from MPL Communications. This company changed to a corporation from a Unit Trust (TSX-SPF.UN) in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this company did a lot better in the first quarter of 2025 with Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow all increasing. Analysts think that the company will be doing better in 2025 with increasing Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow. This company changed their reporting currency to US$ in 2024.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,007.16 you would have bought 84 shares at $11.99 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $594.72 in dividends. The stock would be worth $536.76. Your total return would have been $1,131.48. This would be a total return of 1.56% per year with 6.10% from capital loss and 7.66% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$11.99 $1,007.16 84 10 $594.72 $536.76 $1,131.48

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth negative. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.65%. The 5, 10 year and historical median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.32%, 6.22% and 6.51%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is 0%. This is because dividends were flat 2015. Dividends were changed from monthly to quarterly in 2023. Dividends were cut in 2025 by 75%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) will probably be fine going forward. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) are non-calculable currently because of an earning loss with 5 year coverage far too high at 407%%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Operations Cash Flow (AOCF) is too high at 51% with 5 year coverage fine at 41%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 27% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 153% with 5 year coverage at 112%. There is no agreement on what the FCF is and the values for 2024 range from 97.3M to 163.1M. Analysts expect the DPR for Earnings per Share to be around 29% in 2025 because of the dividend cut.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS -333.59% 407.42%
AOCF 50.54% 41.12%
CFPS 27.02% 29.49%
FCF 153.24% 111.89%

Debt Ratios need improving and showing far too much debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is far too high at 1.61 and currently at 1.49. This ratio is best around 0.50 and you certainly want it under 1.00. The Intangible and Goodwill ratio is far too high at 2.08 and 1.60 currently. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is far too low at 0.95 and ok at 1.25 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratio is far too low at 0.78 and currently fine at 1.82. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is fine at 1.45 and good at 1.53 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are far too high at 4.16 and 2.87 and currently at 3.62 and 2.36. These need to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 1.61 1.49
Intang/GW 2.08 1.60
Liquidity 0.95 1.25
Liq. + CF 0.78 1.82
Debt Ratio 1.45 1.53
Leverage 4.16 3.62
D/E Ratio 2.87 2.36

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2024 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 0.00% -5.42% -12.64% 7.22%
2014 10 1.67% 1.56% -6.10% 7.66%
2009 15 -5.26% 2.24% -5.38% 7.62%
2004 20 -5.95% -0.88% -4.02% 3.14%
1999 25 -2.94% 11.59% -2.86% 14.45%
1996 28 -1.17% 10.44% -2.69% 13.12%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2024 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 -2.03% -7.16% -14.49% 7.33%
2014 10 -0.49% -0.67% -8.06% 7.39%
2009 15 -7.25% 0.34% -7.33% 7.67%
2004 20 -6.79% -0.94% -8.24% 7.30%
2003 21 -5.82% 2.11% -6.92% 9.02%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.22, 14.09 and 15.96. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.09, 9.71 and 11.20. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.22, 14.90 and 18.18. The current ratio is 10.95 based on a stock price of $6.79 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $0.62. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $9.31. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.07, 1.28 and 1.60. The current ratio is 0.73 based on a stock price $6.79. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.91. The current ratio is 1.09 based on a stock price of $6.79, Book Value of $1,387M and Book Value per Share of $6.22. The current ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.07. The current ratio is 3.36 based on a stock price of $6.79, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $2.02 and Cash Flow of $450.9M. The current ratio is 53% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.51%. The current dividend yield is 2.65% based on a stock price of $6.79 and dividends of $0.18. The current dividend yield is 59% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This stock used to be an income trust and therefore could have a high dividend yield. They have just decreased their dividends after having them flat for a long time. So, this is not a good test.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.22%. The current dividend yield is 2.65% based on a stock price of $6.79 and dividends of $0.18. The current dividend yield is 57% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This stock used to be an income trust and therefore could have a high dividend yield. They have just decreased their dividends after having them flat for a long time. So, this is not a good test.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.72. The current P/S Ratio is 0.40 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 pf $3,785M, Revenue per Share of $16.97 and a stock price of $6.79. The current ratio is 44% below the 10 year median ratio.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be cheap. The dividend yield tests say the stock price is expensive, but this test works best on dividend growth stocks. This company used to be an income trust and they should have cut the dividend more when they because a corporation in 2009. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock is relatively cheap. The rest of the testing says that the stock price is relatively cheap except for the P/E Ratio test that says it is reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (5), and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $9.63 with a high of $12.00 and low of $7.50. The consensus stock price of $9.63 implies a total return of 44.48% with 41.83% from capital gains and 2.65% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase sort of like this company. One analyst says that the dividend cut is a game-changer for him and I understand that. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a safe long-term holding. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool reviews this stock but seems to miss the dividend changes. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2024 results. The company put out a Press Release about their first quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance puts out a review on this stock. They have two warnings out on this stock of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; and unstable dividend track record.

Superior Plus Corp is a Canadian-based company that distributes energy and specialty chemicals. The company is organized into four business segments: U.S. Propane Distribution, Canadian Propane Distribution, Wholesale Propane Distribution and Certarus, out of which the majority is from the U.S. Propane segment. Its web site is here Superior Plus Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Evertz Technologies Ltd (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (TSX-BDGI, OTC-BADFF) ... learn more on Monday, August 18, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Evertz Technologies Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Tech. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high and need to improve. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Evertz Technologies Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I am holding on to my shares at this time. I still think that this could be a good company for me. It is, of course, a risky buy. I have this stock in my main trading account. I also have it in my TFSA, which is my fooling around money. This stock is testing as relatively cheap and it probably is.

I own this stock of Evertz Technologies Ltd (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF). I got the idea to investigate this stock from a G&M Article. It looked like something I might want to try out. This stock came up in a stock screen filter article that was looking for reliable dividend payers. That is companies that have reliable profits big enough to comfortably cover their dividend payments. This was in 2011.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I bought this as a small cap tech that I hoped would become a backbone stock. It has not. I have had this stock since 2011 and then several more purchases. I have made 4.10% per year with a capital loss of 2.98% and dividends at 7.08%. More than half the company is owned by the CEO and Chairman. Within the last year, the CFO bought more shares, some around $12.00 and some around $10.75.

Note that the annual report I am reviewing is for the fourth quarter of 2026 dated April 30, 2025. April 30 each year is the annual reporting period for this stock.

If you look at the chart on this company, there was a huge spike in the stock price in 2007 and then the stock price went up and down, but results in a rather flat stock price. There was a spike down in the stock price in 2020 and then the stock price when up and down, but at a lower level than before 2020.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,003.20 you would have bought 57 shares at $17.60 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $578.55 in dividends. The stock would be worth $718.20. Your total return would have been $1,296.75. This would be a total return of 3.37% per year with 3.29% from capital loss and 6.66% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$17.60 $1,003.20 57 10 $578.55 $718.20 $1,296.75

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. The dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.66%. The 5 year median dividend yield is good at 5.80%. The 10 year and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.75% and 4.10%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at just 1.9% per year over the last 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 2.6%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high and need to improve. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is far too high at 103% with 5 year coverage at 113%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is far too high at 67% with 5 year coverage at 73%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is far too high at 88% with 5 year coverage at 94%. There is no agreement on what the FCF and for 2025 ranges is from $66.6M to 91.7M. I am using the lower range.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 102.60% 113.47%
CFPS 67.31% 73.78%
FCF 87.97% 94.20%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.08 and currently at 0.07. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.14 and 2.14 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.37 and 2.37 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.73 and 0.73 and currently at 1.73 and 0.73.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.08 0.07
Intang/GW 0.02 0.02
Liquidity 2.14 2.14
Liq. + CF 2.35 2.27
Debt Ratio 2.37 2.37
Leverage 1.73 1.73
D/E Ratio 0.73 0.73

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 1.87% -0.91% -6.74% 5.83%
2014 10 1.51% 3.37% -3.29% 6.66%
2009 15 6.21% 6.58% -0.46% 7.04%
2006 18 8.42% 5.43% -0.42% 5.85%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.56, 15.29 and 17.87. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.82, 16.26 and 19.13. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.04, 16.94 and 19.68. The current ratio is 16.47 based on a stock price of $12.02 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $0.73. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $7.63. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.39, 1.64 and 1.95. The current ratio is 1.58 based on a stock price of $12.02. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.77. The current ratio is 3.39 based on a stock price of $12.02, Book Value of $268.6M, and Book Value per Share of $3.55. The current ratio is 10% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.17. The current ratio is 10.73 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $1.12, Cash Flow of $84.8M and a stock price of $12.02. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.10%. The current dividend yield is 6.66% based on a dividend of $0.80 and a stock price of $12.02. The current dividend yield is 62% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.75%. The current dividend yield is 6.66% based on a dividend of $0.80 and a stock price of $12.02. The current dividend yield is 40% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.69. The current P/S Ratio is 1.73 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $526.9M, Revenue per Share of $6.96 and a stock price of $12.02. The current ratio is 36% below the 10 yar median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. However, most of the rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Buy (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $13.92 with a high of $12.25 and low of $13.50. The consensus stock price of $13.92 implies a total return of 22.46% with 15.81% from capital gains and 6.66% from dividends based on a current stock price of $12.02.

Last year, when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (2). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus was $17.17 with a high of $17.50 and low of $17.00. The consensus stock price of $17.17 implied a total return of 44.29% with 38.02% from capital gains and 6.27% from dividends based on a stock price of $12.44. What happened was that the stock price fell from $12.44 to $12.02 a loss of 3.38%. Therefore the total return would have been 2.89% with a capital loss of 3.38% and dividends of 6.27%.

There is one entry on Stock Chase for this stock and it is a Buy. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool reviews this stock and says it is a gem. Adam Othman on Motley Fool reviewed this stock last year and said that the high Dividend Payout Ratio makes it seem like a risky investment. The company put out a press release via Globe and Mail on their fourth quarter for 2025 dated April 30, 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and says it is a promising small cap. It has one warning of dividend of 6.68% is not well covered by earnings.

Evertz Technologies Ltd is a Canadian provider of telecommunications equipment and technology solutions to the television broadcast and new-media industries. More than half of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States. Its web site is here Evertz Technologies Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Superior Plus Corp (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF) ... learn more on Friday, August 15, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Compounding Quality.... learn more on Thursday, August 14, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, August 11, 2025

Andrew Peller Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. Most Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Andrew Peller Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that this stock is cheap for a reason. Growth is low and they are paying too much out in dividends. The dividend payouts are set to moderate according to analysts, but they do not expect much growth in Revenue and Earnings over the next couple of year. A plus is that they have been paying dividends each year for the past 46 years. Over the past 37 years, they have raised the dividends 16 times. This stock is certainly testing as cheap.

I do not own this stock of Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF), but I used to. This stock was on Mike Higgs' dividend growth stock list. I owned this stock as Andres Wines Ltd between 1996 and 2000. When I held this stock, it was called Andres Wines Ltd. I sold in 2000 and I only made a total return of 5.41% per year with capital gains at 0.06% and dividends at 5.35%.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that growth in Revenue has been low. Revenue growth is important because if this does not grow there is not much hope for revenue and cash flow growth. They are paying too much in dividends, but analyst expect DPR to be in the 50% ranges this year and next. It would be better in the 40% ranges. Analysts do not expect much growth this year or next.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,004.67 you would have bought 200 shares at $5.02 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $416.72 in dividends. The stock would be worth $828.00. Your total return would have been $1,244.72. This would be a total return of 2.53% per year with 1.92% from capital loss and 4.45% from dividends. The thing with dividend stocks is that you tend not to lose money overall.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$5.02 $1,004.67 200 10 $416.72 $828.00 $1,244.72

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.50%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 4.19%, 2.15% and 3.72%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 3% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 9.04%. There have been no dividend increases since. There is no information on what the dividend increases might resume. However, they have never raised the dividends each year. `

Most Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 97% with 5 year coverage at 117%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is too high at 103% with 5 year coverage at 134%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 17% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at35% with 5 year coverage too high at 72%.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 97.27% 116.54%
AEPS 102.66% 134.26%
CFPS 17.43% 30.40%
FCF 35.48% 71.95%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is fine at 0.86 and currently at 0.74, but would be better if the values were 0.50 or under. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 3.40 and 3.40 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.81 and 1.81 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine at 2.23 and 1.23 and currently at 2.23 and 1.23.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.86 0.74
Intang/GW 0.43 0.37
Liquidity 3.40 3.40
Liq. + CF 4.17 3.83
Debt Ratio 1.81 1.81
Leverage 2.23 2.23
D/E Ratio 1.23 1.23

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 40 to the end of 2024 for Class A stock. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 2.96% -15.73% -18.91% 3.18%
2014 10 6.18% 2.53% -1.92% 4.45%
2009 15 5.51% 8.39% 3.15% 5.24%
2004 20 6.36% 5.50% 1.43% 4.07%
1999 25 5.06% 8.88% 3.95% 4.94%
1994 30 4.46% 8.99% 4.00% 4.99%
1989 35 3.81% 8.77% 3.34% 5.43%
1984 40 3.60% 7.38% 2.96% 4.42%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.86, 14.96 and 18.05. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.87, 17.92 and 21.79. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.45, 13.26 and 14.76. The current ratio is 12.72 based on a stock price of $5.47 and EPS estimate for 2026 is $0.43. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.21, 15.40 and 18.59. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.24, 17.30 and 21.91. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.24, 14.45 and 15.92. The current ratio is 11.64 based on a stock price of $5.47 and AEPS estimate for 2026 is $0.47. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $7.71. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.98, 1.33 and 1.67. The current ratio is 0.71 based on a stock price of $5.47. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current ratio is 0.97 based on a stock price of $5.47, Book Value of $243.8M and Book Value per Share of $5.62. The current ratio is below the 10 year Ratio by 43%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 14.51. The current ratio is 6.08 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $0.90, Cash Flow of $39M, and a stock price of $5.47. The current ratio is below the 10 year median ratio by 58%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.72%. The current dividend yield is 4.50% based on dividends of $.246 and a stock price of $5.47. The current ratio is 21% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.15%. The current dividend yield is 4.50% based on dividends of $.246 and a stock price of $5.47. The current ratio is 109% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.05. The current ratio is 0.60 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $393.6M, Revenue per Share of $9.08 and a stock price of $5.47. The current ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield testing is saying this. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the tests are saying the same thing, that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Strong Buy (2). The 12 months stock price is $12.00 with a high of $13.50 and low of $10.50. The 12 month stock price of $12.00 implies a total return of 123.88% with 119.38% from capital gains and 4.50% from dividends based on a current stock price of $5.47.

The last analyst comment was in 2024 on Stock Chase. Analyst said Do Not Buy. He saw the future uncertain because of Ontario rolling out more retail locations. A comment in 2023 was that the price dropped due to slow growth and supply chain issues. Brian Paradza on Motley Fool thinks this company will gain because of US wine being pulled from Canadian shelves. This is not a well followed stock and the comment prior was in 2023. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool thinks that this is a highly defensive stock. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter results for March 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance review this stock. They like it that it is up 17% in the previous quarter, but says that does not change the fact that shareholders have losses over the past 5 years. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings out on this stock of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; earnings have declined by 55.5% per year over past 5 years; and dividend of 4.52% is not well covered by earnings.

Andrew Peller Ltd is a wine-producing company. The company is engaged in the production, bottling, and marketing of wine, spirits, and craft beverage alcohol products in Canada. Some of the company's brands are Peller Estates, Trius Winery, Thirty Bench, Wayne Gretzky, Sandhill, Red Rooster, Calona Vineyards, and many more. The Company owns and operates independent retail locations in Ontario under The Wine Shop, Wine Country Vintners, and Wine Country Merchants store. Its web site is here Andrew Peller Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Evertz Technologies Ltd (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 13, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about George Friedman on Russia.... learn more on Tuesday, August 11, 2025 around 5 pm.

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