Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably still reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine to good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on TFI International Inc.
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still think this is a great company and I plan to hold on to the shares that I have. I am not buying more because I have enough of this stock and generally, I am not buying anything. The stock price has come down a lot, but we are living in uncertain times. Relatively speaking, this stock is not cheap after falling some 38% so far this year. It is testing as reasonable, but above the median. I might buy some stocks, I have not decided what yet, if this uncertainty we have continues.
I own this stock of TFI International Inc (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF). I read a report called "6 Canadian Dividend Stocks That Fly Under the Radar" by John Heinzl in April of 2013. This is one of the stocks mentioned. There was also a good review of this stock by Advice Hotline by MPL Communications. I bought this stock in 2017 because I liked the spreadsheet.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for 7.7 years. I have made a total return of 31.56% with 29.32% from capital gains and 2.24% from dividends as of 31 January 2025. I am making 9.1% yield on my initial investment into this stock.
If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1006.06 you would have bought 34 shares at $29.59 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $399.21 in dividends. The stock would be worth $6,604.16. Your total return would have been $7.003.37. This would be a total return of 22.33% per year with 20.70% from capital gain and 1.60% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $29.59 | $1,006.06 | 34 | 10 | $399.21 | $6,604.16 | $7,003.37 |
If you had invested in this company in December 1995, for $1006.06 you would have bought 827 shares at $1.21 per share. In December 2024, after 30 years you would have received $20,012.67 in dividends. The stock would be worth $160.636.48. Your total return would have been $180,649.15. This would be a total return of 25.07% per year with 18.45% from capital gain and 6.63% from dividends. You buy good companies and you keep them.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.21 | $1,000.67 | 827 | 30 | $20,012.67 | $160,636.48 | $180,649.15 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.20%. The 5 year median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.17%. The 10 year and historical dividend yields are moderate at 2.19% and 2.55%. The dividend growth is moderate (15% per year or higher) at 16.7% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 12.5%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 32% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 28% with 5 year coverage at 21%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 9%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 30% with 5 year coverage at 17%. (I am going with FCF from the company as Market Screener agrees with their FCF.)
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 32.26% | 19.53% |
| AEPS | 27.83% | 21.25% |
| CFPS | 9.94% | 8.82% |
| FCF | 29.65% | 17.07% |
Debt Ratios are fine to good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.20 and currently at 0.20. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is too low at 1.03 and 1.03 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are good at 1.96 and currently at 1.94. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.60 and 1.60 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine at 2.67 and 1.67 and currently at 2.67 and 1.67.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| Intang/GW | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| Liquidity | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.96 | 1.94 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Leverage | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.67 | 1.67 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2024 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | 19.12% | 36.40% | 34.51% | 1.90% |
| 2014 | 10 | 14.78% | 22.30% | 20.70% | 1.60% |
| 2009 | 15 | 12.38% | 25.86% | 23.29% | 2.57% |
| 2004 | 20 | 3.48% | 16.67% | 13.57% | 3.09% |
| 1999 | 25 | 3.25% | 30.47% | 18.91% | 11.57% |
| 1994 | 30 | 25.07% | 18.45% | 6.63% | |
| 1990 | 33 | 19.20% | 15.76% | 3.44% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2024 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | 16.70% | 33.87% | 31.93% | 1.94% |
| 2014 | 10 | 12.34% | 19.63% | 18.11% | 1.52% |
| 2009 | 15 | 10.02% | 23.33% | 20.75% | 2.59% |
| 2004 | 20 | 2.56% | 16.24% | 12.67% | 3.57% |
| 2002 | 22 | 3.69% | 25.05% | 16.09% | 8.95% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.76, 12.11 and 17.85. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.07, 12.12 and 17.31. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.84, 12.07 and 14.84. The current P/E Ratio is 15.38 based on a stock price of $119.77 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $7.79 ($5.40 US$). The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.82, 16.08 and 22.35. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.91, 14.53 and 17.63. The current ratio is 13.59 based on a stock price of $119.77 and AEPS for 2025 of $8.82 ($6.11 US$). The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $95.20. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.97, 1.20 and 1.47. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.26 based on a stock price of $119.77. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.33. The current ratio is 2.62 based on a stock price of $119.77, Book Value of $3,857M and Book Value per Share of $45.69. The current ratio is 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $35.71 US$. This implies a Book Value of $3,014M and a ratio of 2.34 with a stock price of $83.49. The 10 year P/B Ratio in US$ is 2.47. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.71. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.63 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $15.80 (12.53 US$), Cash Flow of $1,526M and a stock price of $119.77. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.52%. The current dividend yield is 2.17% based on dividends of $2.60 ($1.80 US$) and a stock price of $119.77. The current dividend yield is 14% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.19%. The current dividend yield is 2.17% based on dividends of $2.60 ($1.80 US$) and a stock price of $119.77. The current dividend yield is 2% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.77. The current P/S Ratio is 0.81 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $12,451M ($8,630M US$). The current ratio is 5.8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably still reasonable. The dividend yield testing is saying that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. The P/S Ratio test says the same thing. Most of the testing says this, but some say reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (8), Hold (5) and Underperform (2). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $168.19 ($116.57 US$) with a high of $207.29 ($143.67 US$) and low of $121.93 ($84.51 US$). The consensus price of $168.19 implies a total return of 42.59% with 40.43% from capital gains and 2.17% from dividends.
Analysts on Stock Chase talk of a freight recession. The last analyst from yesterday says the stock is a screaming buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says to buy quality TSX Transportation stocks like TFI. Joey Frenette pm Motley Fool said in February 2025 that this stock was cheap. The company put out a press release on Global Newswire about their four quarter of 2024 results.
A Financial Post article on Yahoo Finance is interesting as the company decided not to move to the US after shareholder backlash. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance in February thought that this was a good stock to buy because it is currently trading below the industry PE ratio. Simply Wall Street has two warnings out on this stock of unstable dividend track record, and has a high level of debt. However, it does not have an unstable dividend track record. It used to pay dividends in CDN$ until 2020 which it switched accounting and dividends to US$.
TFI International Inc is involved in the provision of transportation and logistics services across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Geographically, the company generates maximum revenue from the United States. Its web site is here TFI International Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA) ... learn more on Friday, March 7, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy March 2025.... learn more on Thursday, March 6, 2025 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
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