Empire Company Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. Debt Ratios show that the company has a lot of debt. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Empire Company Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is the sort of company to get if you a building a portfolio. It has low dividends, but good dividend increases. It is a dividend growth stock, which are the kind I like. The dividends are rather low, but the yield has popped to 2% on occasions. I would go for it when the dividend is 2% or more. It would seem to be a bit pricey at the moment, so a Hold recommendation makes sense.

I do not own this stock of Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF). I have known about this stock for some time before I decided to follow it. This stock has a financial year ending in end of April or first of May each year. This company has a financial year ending around April 30 each year. I am looking at the May 3, 2025 financial year end in this report.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed you can end up with good dividends on companies with low dividends that grow dividends. See chart below. For year 5, the current dividend on the original price 5 years ago is 2.49%. 5 years ago, the dividend was 1.29%. Dividends have increased by 92% and your dividends have covered 10% of the cost of your stock.

Div Yd	Years	Start Div	Div Inc	Cost Covered
2.49%	5	1.29%	92.48%	10.38%
3.44%	10	1.23%	178.72%	23.16%
4.79%	15	1.48%	224.41%	41.66%
6.79%	20	1.29%	425.17%	68.04%
16.43%	25	1.00%	1543.31%	176.93%

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,022.35 you would have bought 35 shares at $29.21 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $190.40 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,495.90. Your total return would have been $1,686.30. This would be a total return of 5.41% per year with 3.88% from capital gain and 1.53% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$29.21	$1,022.35	35	10	$190.40	$1,495.90	$1,686.30

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.57%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are low at 1.73%, 1.68% and 1.45%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 10.8% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 10%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 27% with 5 year coverage at 23%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 27% with 5 year coverage at 24%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 8% with 5 year coverage at 7%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 21% with 5 year coverage at 17%. There is no agreement on what the FCF should be.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	27.30%	23.69%
AEPS	26.76%	23.60%
CFPS	7.95%	7.33%
FCF	20.65%	16.97%

Debt Ratios show that the company has a lot of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.07 and currently at 0.07. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is too low at 0.77 and 0.81 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still low at 1.24 and currently at 1.24. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is low at 1.48 and 1.48 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are too high at 3.15 and 2.12 and currently at 3.15 and 2.12. I prefer these ratios to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.07	0.07
Intang/GW	0.29	0.26
Liquidity	0.77	0.81
Liq. + CF	1.24	1.24
Debt Ratio	1.48	1.48
Leverage	3.15	3.15
D/E Ratio	2.12	2.12

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 40 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	10.76%	8.87%	7.01%	1.86%
2014	10	8.31%	5.41%	3.88%	1.53%
2009	15	8.16%	8.58%	6.81%	1.77%
2004	20	8.38%	9.23%	7.39%	1.84%
1999	25	12.04%	11.26%	9.15%	2.11%
1994	30	11.18%	12.47%	10.25%	2.23%
1989	35	10.21%	9.83%	8.27%	1.56%
1984	40	9.90%	14.54%	11.65%	2.89%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.60, 14.15, 16.30. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are 12.13, 14.41 and 16.85. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.90, 12.69 and 14.20. The current P/E Ratio is 17.06 based on a stock price of $56.13 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $3.29. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.60, 13.66 and 15.59. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are 12.55, 14.37 and 17.05. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.78, 13.60 and 15.40. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 17.01 based on a stock price of $56.13 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $3.30. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $41.55. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.95, 1.14 and 1.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.35 based on a stock price of $56.13. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.85. The current P/B Ratio is 2.41 based on a Book Value of $5,410M, Book Value per Share of $23.26 and a stock price of $56.13. The current ratio is 31% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.59. The current ratio is 6.14 based on a stock price of $56.13, Cash Flow of $2,127 and Cash Flow per Share for the last 12 months of $9.14. The current ratio is 10% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.45%. The current dividend yield is 1.56% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $56.13. The current dividend yield is 8% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.68%. The current dividend yield is 1.56% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $56.13. The current dividend yield is 7% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.30. The current P/S Ratio is 0.40 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $32,339M, Revenue per Share of $139.02 and a stock price of $56.13. The current ratio is 35% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. The 10 year median dividend yield test is saying that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. This is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test which says the stock price is relatively expensive. A lot of the testing is saying that the stock price is either reasonable but above the median or expensive. From this I can see why the analysts’ recommendation is a Hold.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (1), Hold (4), and Sell (1). The consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $58.38 with a high of $62.00 and low of $53.00. The consensus stock price of $58.38 implies a total return of 5.58% with 4.01% from capital gains and 1.57% from dividends based on a current stock price of $56.13.

An analyst in 2025 on Stock Chase rates this company as a Hold. It was a weak buy in 2024. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool compares this company and Alimentation Couche-Tard. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this is a buy and hold forever stock. The company put out a press release via Newswire about its fourth quarter results for 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street has no warnings out on this stock.

Empire Co Ltd key businesses are food retailing, investments, and other operations. The food retailing division operates through Empire's subsidiaries Sobeys, National, Farm Boy, and Longo's, and represents nearly all of the company's income. Its web site is here Empire Company Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Saputo Inc (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF) ... learn more on Monday, July 7, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Saputo Inc

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap, but could just be reasonable. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Saputo Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like this company and I plan to hold on to what I have. I have not decided whether or not to buy any more. Analysts certainly have mixed views on this stock. It is a positive to see executives buying more shares. It is certainly off the high it reached 2017. The stock is possibly cheap.

I own this stock of Saputo Inc (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list and on the dividend lists that I followed. I bought this stock first in 2006 for my RRSP account. Because I am now taking money from my RRSP accounts, I have been selling this stock because of the low dividend. I still like this stock so I have been buying it in my TFSA.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that all the officers I follow have bought more shares over the past year. This company has a financial year ending March 31 each year, so I am looking at the year ending March 31, 2025.

I bought this stock several times between 2006 and 2020. I have made 15.14% per year on this stock with 11.82% from capital gains and 3.06% from dividends. It pays to buy a stock over a number of years. Some of the stock I bought cost more than the current price, and, of course, some cost less. I also sold some stock when I needed to raise cash.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,012.68 you would have bought 29 shares at $34.92 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $194.16 in dividends. The stock would be worth $724.71. Your total return would have been $918.87. This would be a total loss of 1.12% per year with 3.32% from capital loss and 2.18% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$34.92	$1,012.68	29	10	$194.16	$724.71	$918.87

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.79%. The 5 year median dividend yield is moderate at 2.35%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.83% and 1.67%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is non-calculable due to an earning loss with 5 year coverage too high at 93%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is high at 52% with 5 year coverage good at 47%. Analysts expect the DPR for AEPS to be less than 40% in the future. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 21%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 42% with 5 year coverage at 35%. There is no agreement on FCF, but figures are not that far off.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	0.00%	93.17%
AEPS	51.71%	46.89%
CFPS	19.98%	20.57%
FCF	41.56%	34.74%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.22 and currently at 0.20. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.52 and 1.52 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.01 and 2.01 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.99 and 0.99 and currently at 1.99 and 0.99.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.22	0.20
Intang/GW	0.35	0.32
Liquidity	1.52	1.52
Liq. + CF	1.76	1.89
Debt Ratio	2.01	2.01
Leverage	1.99	1.99
D/E Ratio	0.99	0.99

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	2.27%	-6.99%	-9.07%	2.08%
2013	10	4.10%	-1.11%	-3.29%	2.18%
2008	15	6.65%	6.17%	3.29%	2.87%
2003	20	8.42%	8.22%	5.20%	3.02%
1998	25	13.77%	10.51%	7.28%	3.23%
1996	28	12.69%	9.18%	6.53%	2.65%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.45, 23.56 and 25.11. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.48, 23.37, 25.74. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.74, 20.63 and 21.74. The current P/E Ratio is 15.38 based on a stock price of $27.23 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $1.77. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.65, 18.70 and 20.75. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.37, 22.56 and 24.74. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.82, 20.85 and 23.57. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 15.30 based on a stock price of $27.23 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $1.78. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $25.84. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41, 1.57 and 1.77. The current ratio is 1.05 based on a stock price of $27.23. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.38. The current P/B Ratio is 1.63 based on a Book Value of $6,977M, Book Value per Share of $16.68 and a stock price of $27.23. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.48. The current ratio is 7.48 based on a stock price of $27.23, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $3.64 and Cash Flow of $1,523M. The current ratio is 41% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.67%. The current dividend yield is 2.79% based on dividends of $0.76 and a stock price of $27.23. The current dividend yield is 67% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.82%. The current dividend yield is 2.79% based on dividends of $0.76 and a stock price of $27.23. The current dividend yield is 53% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.06. The current P/S Ratio is 0.96 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $19,631M, Revenue per Share of $46.93 and a stock price of $27.23. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap, but could just be reasonable. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, the P/S Ratio test just says it is reasonable. I went with cheap because all the rest of the testing is saying the stock price is relatively cheap, but the P/S Ratio test could be right and the stock price could just be reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (4), Hold (3), and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy with a wide spread of opinions. The 12 month stock price consensus is $29.82 with a high of $35.00 and low of $26.00. The consensus stock price of $29.82 implies a total return of 12.30% with 9.51% from capital gains and 2.79% from dividends based on a current stock price of $27.23.

This stock is not well followed on Stock Chase. However, in 2025 there is one Buy recommendation. Amy Legate-Wolfe Motley Fool says this stock has potential to reward patient investors who act when prices slide. Chris MacDonald on Motley Fool says that this stock is trading near its lower end of its long term band. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and looks at who owns it. Simply Wall Street has two warnings of has a high level of debt; and dividend of 2.73% is not well covered by earnings.

Saputo is a global dairy processor domiciled in Canada with operations in the United States, Europe, and other international markets like Australia and Argentina. Saputo also competes in foodservice and industrials, which houses its ingredients business. Its web site is here Saputo Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Computer Modelling Group Ltd (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF) ... learn more on Friday, July 4, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Relationship Fraud.... learn more on Thursday, July 3, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Builder’s Stone by Melanie Phillips learn more...

Computer Modelling Group Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Paying Tech. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable to cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are high and would be better lower. The current dividend yield is moderate with no dividend growth currently. See my spreadsheet on Computer Modelling Group Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a small cap Tech stock that provides services to the energy business. The energy business is cyclical and this stock seems also to be cyclical. I knew what I was getting into when I bought this stock, so I have kept it. So, this is not a stock for everyone’s portfolio. The stock price is off its latest high, so it might be a good time to buy. The stock price is probably reasonable and maybe cheap.

I own this stock of Computer Modelling Group Ltd (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF). I bought this company in 2008 because it is a dividend paying growth stock that would also be considered to be a small cap with a capitalization of around $115 million. Insiders are currently buying this stock. It has great growth and it is information technology, a favourite sector of mine. When I sold some of my TD Bank stock in June 2009, I bought some more. Because the stock grew rapidly and because it is a tech stock, I sold some shares in 2011 to lock in profit. It provides services to the energy industry.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the CEO increased his shares by 124% and the CEO by 50%. One of the directors increased his shares by 323%. There was selling and it seemed to be by people who recently left the company.

I have had this stock since 2008 and I have made a total return of 19.90% per year with 10.03% from capital gains and 9.87% from dividends. Note that the financial year ends March 31 each year and I have been reviewing the financial year ending in March 31, 2026.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,002.96 you would have bought 84 shares at $11.94 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $252 in dividends. The stock would be worth $894.60. Your total return would have been $1,146.60. This would be a total return of 1.54% per year with a 1.14% from capital loss and 2.67% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$11.94	$1,002.96	84	10	$252.00	$894.60	$1,146.60

The current dividend yield is moderate with no dividend growth currently. The dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.80%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate at 3.37%, 3.91%, and 3.63%. Dividends were decreased in 2021 and have been flat since. Since DPRs are rather high, I do not see any dividend increases in the near future.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are high and would be better lower. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 74% with 5 year coverage at 78%. The DPR for 2024 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is fine at 53% with 5 year coverage at 57%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow provided by the company (FCF) is too high at 61% with 5 year coverage at 64%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is too high at 51% with 5 year coverage at 55%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is fine at 53% with 5 year coverage at 57%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	74.07%	78.13%
FFO	52.63%	56.95%
FCF C.	60.61%	64.18%
CFPS	51.22%	55.58%
FCF	53.38%	57.46%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.01 and currently at 0.01. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is low at 1.32 and 1.32 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.54 and currently at 1.58. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.72 and 1.72 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine at 2.38 and 1.38 and currently at 2.38 and 1.38.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.01	0.01
Intang/GW	0.12	0.13
Liquidity	1.32	1.32
Liq. + CF	1.54	1.58
Debt Ratio	1.72	1.72
Leverage	2.38	2.38
D/E Ratio	1.38	1.38

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	-12.94%	7.52%	5.32%	2.20%
2014	10	-6.70%	1.54%	-1.14%	2.67%
2009	15	0.70%	13.16%	7.19%	5.97%
2004	20	12.20%	30.41%	15.76%	14.64%
1999	25		48.99%	25.03%	23.96%
1996	27		18.39%	12.69%	5.69%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.45, 24.90 and 31.58. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are 20.34, 26.60 and 33.03. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.77, 20.99 and 26.74. The current P/E Ratio is 26.64 based on a stock price of $7.14 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $0.27. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have data on Free Cash Flow per Share (FCF) from the company. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Free Cash Flow per Share Ratios are 14.89, 19.48 and 24.07. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are 16.91, 22.92 and 28.92. The current P/FCF Ratio is 19.63 based on FCF per Share estimate for 2026 of 0.36 and a stock price of $7.14. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have data on Funds from Operations (FFO) from the company. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 13.41, 18.14 and 22.42. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are 15.62, 20.83 and 25.94. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.41, 18.55 and 24.17. The current P/FFO Ratio is 18.79 based on FFO per Share for the last 12 months of 0.38 and a stock price of $7.14. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $2.52. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.77, 3.67 and 4.51. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.83 based on a stock price of $7.14. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. Note that these ratios are rather high. Generally speaking, the Price/Graham Price ratio should be under 1.20. However, this is a tech company and tech companies tend to have high ratios.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 11.44. The current P/B Ratio is 6.76 based on a stock price of $7.14, Book Value of $85.9M and Book Value per Share of $7.18. The current ratio is 41% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Here the ratios are exceeding high because a normal good ratio is 1.50. This does point to this stock as being over price for a long time.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 22.27. The current P/CF Ratio is 17.00 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $0.42, Cash Flow of $34.2M and a stock price of $7.14. The current P/CF Ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.63%. The current dividend yield is 2.80% based on dividends of $0.20 and a stock price of $7.14. The current dividend yield is 23% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Problem is that this test works best on dividend growth stocks and this is not a dividend growth stock. However, a dividend cut and flat dividends are not a good story to tell about a stock.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.91%. The current dividend yield is 2.80% based on dividends of $0.20 and a stock price of $7.14. The current dividend yield is 28% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Problem is that this test works best on dividend growth stocks and this is not a dividend growth stock. However, a dividend cut and flat dividends are not a good story to tell about a stock.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.39. the current P/S Ratio is 4.53 based on a stock price of $7.14, Revenue estimate for 2026 of $128.2M and Revenue per Share of $1.58. The current ratio is 39% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable to cheap. The dividend yield tests on this case are not much use because of dividend cuts and flat dividends over the past 6 years. The P/S Ratio testing is saying that the stock price is relatively cheap. The rest of the testing ranges from cheap to reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $9.00 with a high of $10.00 and low of $8.00. The consensus stock price of $9.00 implies a total return of 28.85% with 26.05% from capital gains and 2.80% from dividends based on a current stock price of $7.14.

This stock on Stock Chase is not well covered. Analysts have said the stock was a buy since 2023. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says the company is unperforming due to massive headwinds. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says the stock trades at a discount to price consensus. The company put out a press release via Global Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says that this stock is currently fairly valued. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says that shareholders have reason for hope with this stock. Simply Wall Street has two warnings of significant insider selling over the past 3 months; and unstable dividend track record. See my comments above about insider selling and buying.

Computer Modelling Group Ltd is a software and consulting technology company engaged in developing and licensing reservoir simulation and seismic interpretation software. The company also provides professional services consisting of highly specialized support, consulting, training, and contract research activities. The firm has operations in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific regions. Its web site is here Computer Modelling Group Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX-PKI, OTC-PKIUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Saputo Inc (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 2, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Shopping at the Bay.... learn more on Tuesday, July 1, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Parkland Fuel Corp

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Paying Industrial. Debt Ratios are showing that the debt level is too high. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine, but lower would be better. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Parkland Fuel Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Shares are up 18% after a decline of 24% in 2024. There is a takeover in progress that offers shareholders cash and equity in the takeover company. The company is testing at a current reasonable price with lots of tests showing that the stock price is currently cheap. That is interesting. However, the current company has too much debt.

I do not own this stock of Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX-PKI, OTC-PKIUF). I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock as it was a stock recommended by Roger Conrad in Money Show 2013.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow all went down in 2024 from 2023. Revenue is down 13%. Adjusted Earnings is down 35%. EPS is down 73% and Cash Flow is down 14%. The first quarter of 2025 was a mixed bag, but analysts expect Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow all to pick this this year or next.

The shareholders have voted for the company to be taken over by Sunoco LP. See article on CTV News. The deal is cash and equity. See article on Parkland site.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,000.04 you would have bought 46 shares at $21.74 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $549.40 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,495.46. Your total return would have been $2,044.86. This would be a total return of 8.72% per year with 4.11% from capital gain and 4.61% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$21.74	$1,000.04	46	10	$549.40	$1,495.46	$2,044.86

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.77%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate and all at 3.50%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 3.2% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was low at 2.9%. This increase occurred in 2025.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine, but lower would be better. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is far too high at 193% with 5 year coverage at 97%. The DPR for 2024 for Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is good at 44% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is fine at 61% with 5 year coverage at 67%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 17% with 5 year coverage at 16%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is fine at 50% with 5 year coverage at 29%. However, there is no agreement on what the FCF is.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	193.06%	96.76%
DCF	43.57%	31.88%
AEPS	60.70%	66.69%
CFPS	16.79%	15.93%
FCF	49.59%	28.87%

Debt Ratios are showing that the debt level is too high. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is too high at 1.13 and currently at 0.96. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is too low at 1.32 and 1.34 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.71 and currently at 1.72. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is too low at 1.29 and 1.29 currently. I like to see this ratio at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are far too high at 4.44 and 3.44 and currently at 4.42 and 3.42.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	1.13	0.96
Intang/GW	0.63	0.53
Liquidity	1.32	1.34
Liq. + CF	1.71	1.72
Debt Ratio	1.29	1.29
Leverage	4.44	4.42
D/E Ratio	3.44	3.42

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	3.17%	-4.32%	-7.38%	3.06%
2014	10	2.80%	8.72%	4.11%	4.61%
2009	15	0.66%	12.19%	6.09%	6.11%
2004	20	4.53%	18.33%	7.78%	10.55%
1999	25	17.44%	17.39%	8.30%	9.09%
1994	30	15.89%	15.69%	8.78%	6.90%
1989	35	13.47%	12.46%	7.68%	4.78%
1988	36	13.07%	12.95%	8.10%	4.86%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 37.02, 55.22 and 66.43. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 35.65, 46.37 and 53.20. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.80, 13.91 and 17.00. The current P/E Ratio is 15.53 based on a stock price of $38.24 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $2.46. The P/E Ratios for this company are very high, but 15.53 is a reasonable ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.48, 15.82 and 18.16. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.00, 20.56 and 25.44. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.84, 17.36 and 20.26. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 10.71 based on a stock price of $38.24 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $3.57. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Distributable Cash Flow Ratios are 6.19, 8.93 and 10.25. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.77, 11.18 and 14.78. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.98, 9.47 and 10.63. The current P/DCF Ratio is 9.51 based on a stock price of $38.24 and DCF estimate for 2025 of $4.02. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $38.15. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.27, 1.62 and 1.97. The current ratio is 1.00 based on a stock price of $38.24. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.70. The current ratio is 2.11 based on a stock price of $38.24, Book Value of $3,159M and Book Value per Share of $18.12. The current ratio is 22% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.74. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.46 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $8.58, Cash Flow of $1,496M and a stock price of $38.24. The current ratio is 34% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.50%. The current dividend yield is $3.77% based on a stock price of $38.24 and dividends of $1.44. The current ratio is 8% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield also of 3.50%. The current dividend yield is $3.77% based on a stock price of $38.24 and dividends of $1.44. The current ratio is 8% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. There is the problem with this test of recent dividend cuts and this test works best for dividend growth stocks, but it is a negative when dividends are cut.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.33. The current ratio is 0.23 based on a stock price of $38.24, Revenue estimate for 2025 of $28,577M, and Revenue per Share of $163.88. The current ratio 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests say this. However, the P/S Ratio test says it is cheap. It is surprising how many tests are saying that the stock price is relatively cheap, but the stock is being bought out.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2), Hold (3), Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months stock price consensus is $43.10 with a high of $45.00 and low of $41.00. The 12 month stock price consensus implies a total return of 16.47% with 12.71% from capital gains and 3.77% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase generally do not like this company. Some say there is a takeover offer currently for $44. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thought this company was a buy in March 2025. The company put out a Press Release for the fourth quarter of 2024. The company put out a Press Release about the first quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street had four warnings on this stock of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; large one-off items impacting financial results; profit margins (0.7%) are lower than last year (1.2%); and dividend of 3.79% is not well covered by earnings.

Parkland Corp is a fuel distributor, marketer, and convenience retailer, with operations in countries across the Americas. Parkland delivers refined fuels, propane, and other high-quality petroleum products to motorists, businesses, consumers, and wholesale customers across the Americas. The company's operating segments include: Canada, International, USA, Refining, and Corporate. It derives maximum revenue from Canada segment. Its web site is here Parkland Fuel Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was CI Financial Corp (TSX-CIX, NYSE-CIXX) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Computer Modelling Group Ltd (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF) ... learn more on Monday, June 30, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

CI Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Paying Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably overpriced, but there is a takeover in play. Debt Ratios are problematic for Intangible and Goodwill Ratios and Liquidity Ratios. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth uncertain. See my spreadsheet on CI Financial Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? If I had this stock in my portfolio I would sell it. The company will be taken over at probably $32.00 so you will not gain much by holding it until the end. I think that it is time for the small investor to move on. I have done this in the past in a similar situation. The result of testing is that the stock price is relatively expensive, but, as I have said, there is a takeover in play.

I do not own this stock of CI Financial Corp (TSX-CIX, NYSE-CIXX). I started to follow this stock originally because it was a Mutual Fund company. People talked about it being easier to make money from buying a Mutual Fund company than buying Mutual Funds. When they became a Unit Trust in 2006, dividends were significantly increased, but these dividends proved to be unsustainable. They changed back to a corporation in 2009 and dividends were decreased in 2010. Since that time, they have been increasing their dividends. In June 2014, MPL communications called this stock a Buy and advised that they were adding it to their list of Key Stock for the Investment reporter. I started to follow this stock in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the stock jumped in November 2024. This seems to be because Mubadala Capital is buying this company at $32.00 a share. See article on Morningstar. This was first reported in November 2024. They had a loss in 2024 due to higher expenses. Accelerate Holdings is an indirect subsidiary of Mubadala Capital and special meeting is to approve the takeover by Accelerate Holdings.

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth uncertain. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.53%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate at 3.65%, 3.94% and 3.65%. Since it looks like this stock is going to be bought out, there will probably no further dividend increases.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 2400% with 5 year coverage at 121%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 21% with 5 year coverage at 24%. This would be a DPR that counts. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 25%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 26% with 5 year coverage at 27%. As usual, there is no agreement on what the FCF is.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	2400.00%	120.66%
AEPS	21.22%	23.98%
CFPS	32.55%	24.61%
FCF	25.79%	27.11%

Debt Ratios are problematic for Intangible and Goodwill Ratios and Liquidity Ratios. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is fine but a bit high at 0.70 and currently at 0.71. The Intangible and Goodwill Ratios for 2024 are far too high at 1.82 and currently at 1.85. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is far too low at 0.33 and 0.29 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still far too low at 0.35 and currently at 0.33. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is low for a financial at 1.04 and 1.04 currently. The Leverage reported for 2024 are fine for at 3.5 and currently at 3.5.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.71	0.70
Intang/GW	1.82	1.85
Liquidity	0.33	0.29
Liq. + CF	0.35	0.33
Liq CF DB	0.41	0.40
Debt Ratio	1.04	1.04
Leverage Rep	3.5	3.5

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	2.13%	10.30%	7.34%	2.96%
2014	10	-3.81%	2.65%	-0.43%	3.07%
2009	15	-8.01%	6.16%	2.30%	3.86%
2004	20	3.46%	9.20%	3.21%	5.99%
1999	25	14.87%	15.88%	7.70%	8.18%
1994	30	16.31%	19.40%	10.74%	8.66%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.48, 11.26, 15.05. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.65, 11.88 and 15.40. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.80, 16.92 and 19.89. The current ratio is 23.57 based on a stock price of $31.58 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $1.34. The current ratio is above the 10 year median high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 3.98, 6.37 and 8.76. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.96, 7.79 and 10.04. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.49, 12.70 and 15.00. The current ratio is 7.93 based on a stock price of $31.58 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $3.98. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $15.88. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.90, 1.17 and 1.41. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.99 based on a stock price of $31.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.29. The current P/B Ratio is 11.21 based on a Book Value of $403.7M, Book Value per share of $2.82 and a stock price of $31.58. The current P/B Ratio is 241% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.68. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.12 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $2.84, Cash Flow of $407M and a stock price of $31.58. The current ratio is 45% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.65%. The current dividend yield is 2.53% based on dividends $0.80 and a stock price of $31.58. The current dividend yield is 31% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.94%. The current dividend yield is 2.53% based on dividends $0.80 and a stock price of $31.58. The current dividend yield is 36% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.96. The current P/S Ratio is 1.41 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $3,210M, Revenue per Share of $22.40 and a stock price of $31.58. The current ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably overpriced, but there is a takeover in play. The dividend yield testing is saying that the stock price is expensive. A problem, of course, with this testing is recent dividend cuts. But dividend cuts are very much a negative. The P/S Ratio testing says that the stock price is cheap, but you not only need Revenue, you need also to be able to make a profit. A number of other tests are showing that the stock price is relatively expensive. A good test is the P/GP Ratio test.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (3), Underperform (1), and Sell (1). The consensus is Underperform. The 12 months stock price target is $31.90 with a high $32.00 and low of $31.50. The 12 month stock price target price of $31.90 implies a total return of 3.55% with 1.02% from capital gains and 2.53% from dividends based on a current stock price of $31.58.

There is one analyst on Stock Chase for 2025 saying he sold at $32 and this company was a past top pick for him. There are a number of entries for 2024 with very mixed comments from Do Not Buy to Top Pick. From comments by Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool it does not look like she knows it is being bought out? Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool also does not seem to know this stock will be bought out? The buy-out was first reported in November 2024. The company put out a Press Release about its fourth quarter of 2024 results. The company put out a Press Release about its first quarter of 2025 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance thinks this company is undervalued. They also do not mention the fact that there is a buyout on offer.

CI Financial is a provider of asset- and wealth management products and services. Its web site is here CI Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Waste Connections Inc (TSX-WCN, NYSE-WCN) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX-PKI, OTC-PKIUF) ... learn more on Friday, June 27, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about George Friedman.... learn more on Thursday, June 26, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Waste Connections Inc

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be reasonable, but is probably expensive. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Waste Connections Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock has going up strongly for a while. It is now just off its all-time high. Some analysts also think that the stock price is high. It is generally not good to buy a stock near its all time high. However, this stock, even though it is in a mundane business of garbage has done well for its shareholders. It is testing as rather on the expensive side.

I do not own this stock of Waste Connections Inc (TSX-WCN, NYSE-WCN), but I used to. I first bought this stock in 2007 because TD Securities had a very favorable report on this stock and had it on their action buy list. I had money because I had recently sold RIM. At that time, it was BFI Canada Income Fund. In 2010, I needed to buy something for Pension Account. I have this already and it is on TD Action Buy List. I sold when it because the target of a reverse takeover by an American company.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock has taken off since the reverse takeover.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,015.60 you would have bought 21 shares at $48.36 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $205.63 in dividends. The stock would be worth $5,178.60. Your total return would have been $5,384.23. This would be a total return of 18.61% per year with 17.69% from capital gain and 0.91% from dividends. This is in CDN$.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$48.36	$1,015.60	21	10	$205.63	$5,178.60	$5,384.23

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,041.17 you would have bought 25 shares at $41.65 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $183.45 in dividends. The stock would be worth $4,289.50. Your total return would have been $4,472.95. This would be a total return of 18.08% per year with 15.21% from capital gain and 0.88% from dividends. This is in US$.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$41.65	$1,041.17	25	10	$183.45	$4,289.50	$4,472.95

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 0.67%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 0.74%, 0.77% and 1.14%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 12% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 10.5%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 49% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 24% with 5 year coverage at 26%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 12% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 22% with 5 year coverage at 23%. There is some agreement on what the FCF is.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	48.95%	40.70%
AEPS	24.43%	25.55%
CFPS	12.38%	12.84%
FCF	21.90%	23.32%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.18 and currently at 0.17. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is far too low at 0.65 and 0.70 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.68 and currently at 1.92. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.66 and 1.65 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine at 2.52 and 1.52and currently at 2.53 and 1.53.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.18	0.17
Intang/GW	0.22	0.21
Liquidity	0.65	0.70
Liq. + CF	1.68	1.92
Debt Ratio	1.66	1.65
Leverage	2.52	2.53
D/E Ratio	1.52	1.53

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2024 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	14.28%	16.69%	15.89%	0.79%
2014	10	15.27%	18.61%	17.69%	0.91%
2009	15	6.99%	17.99%	17.01%	0.99%
2004	20	3.26%	11.58%	10.43%	1.16%
2001	23	5.25%	15.56%	13.34%	2.23%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2024 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	11.96%	14.38%	13.58%	0.81%
2014	10	12.81%	16.08%	15.21%	0.88%
2009	15	4.77%	15.60%	14.61%	0.98%
2004	20	2.34%	10.87%	9.58%	1.29%
2001	23	5.69%	18.93%	15.16%	3.77%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 43.83, 49.87 and 58.50. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 34.74, 41.07 and 48.00. The corresponding historical ratios are 25.19, 29.56 and 33.93. The current P/E Ratio is 40.60 based on a current stock price of $258.50 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $6.37 ($4.64 US$). The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 30.14, 33.92 and 39.45. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 28.20, 32.74 and 36.28. The corresponding historical ratios are 24.09, 29.25 and 34.40. The current P/E Ratio is 36.07 based on a current stock price of $258.50 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $7.17 ($5.22US$). The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $82.92. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.03, 2.40 and 2.77. The current P/GP Ratio is 3.12 based on a stock price of $258.50. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.10. The current P/B Ratio is 6.08 based on a Stock Price of $188.83, Book Value of $8,014M and Book Value per Share of $31.06. The current ratio is 96% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $32.68. This implies a ratio of 5.78 based on a stock price of $188.83 and a Book Value of $8,432M. This ratio is 87% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 14.26. The current ratio is 19.09 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $9.89, Cash Flow of $2,553M and a stock price of $188.83. The current ratio is 35% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.13%. The current dividend yield is 0.67% based on dividends of $1.26 and a stock price of $188.83. The current dividend is 41% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.79%. The current dividend yield is 0.67% based on dividends of $1.26 and a stock price of $188.83. The current dividend is 16% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.02. The current P/S Ratio is 5.11 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $9,530M, Revenue per Share of $36.94 and a stock price of $188.83. The current ratio is 27% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get a slightly different result in CDN$. However, the financial statements and estimates are in US$, so I will go with the US$ results.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be reasonable, but is probably expensive. The 10 year dividend yield testing is saying that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. This is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio testing that says the stock price is relatively expensive. A number of my tests are saying that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, the P/AEPS says it is reasonable but above the median. This is a better test that the P/E Ratio test. The P/GP Ratio test says that the stock price is expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (12), Buy (6), Hold (6), Underperform (1), and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. However, there is no consensus by the analysts and views cover all possible values. The 12 month stock price consensus is $289.33 ($210.76 US$) with a High of $315.74 ($230.00 US$) and low of $205.92 ($150.00 US$). The consensus stock price $289.33 implies a total return of $12.60% with 11.93% from capital gains and 0.67% from dividends based on a current stock price of $258.50.

Analyst on Stock Chase for 2025 are positive about this stock and think it is a buy. Rajiv Nanjapla on Motley Fool thinks you should buy this stock for diversification and defense. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks you should invest in this company because of its growth prospects. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2024. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their first quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and thinks that the ROE is far too low. Simply Wall Street has one warning out on this stock of has a high level of debt.

Waste Connections is the third-largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste and recycling services in the North America. Its web site is here Waste Connections Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Lassonde Industries Inc (TSX-LAS.A, OTC-LSDAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be CI Financial Corp (TSX-CIX, NYSE-CIXX) ... learn more on Wednesday, June 25, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Decolonizing and India.... learn more on Thursday, June 24, 2025 around 5 pm.

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