Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It would seem that dividend growth has really slowed down as the last increase was for 8.3% whereas the 5 year dividend growth per year is 21.6%. Note that Cash Flow without Working Capital has positive growth, unlike just Cash Flow. If you like to company, but careful as it is testing expensive. It is always wise to make several purchases over time rather than just one purchase. The stock is testing as expensive and check on the 10 year dividend yield test, the stock would have to be around $25.75 at a minimum to pass this test.
I do not own this stock of Element Fleet Management Corp (TSX-EFN, OTC-ELEEF). I was looking for stocks to follow and I found this stock in 100 best Dividend Stocks Money Sense for 2018. It was also on Raymond James' top 19 Canadian stocks for 2019 list.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the company has switched their accounting from CDN$ to US$ starting this year. However, analysts who give out estimates are still giving estimates in CDN$. Of the officers and directors, I am following the CEO has increased his shares in the company, but one officer and one director have decreased their shares in the company.
If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,002.14 you would have bought 89 shares at $11.26 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $551.34 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,586.34. Your total return would have been $3,137.68. This would be a total return of 14.67% per year with 9.95% from capital gain and 4.73% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.26 | $1,002.14 | 89 | 10 | $551.34 | $2,586.34 | $3,137.68 |
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. In column 5, I am showing what growth has been over the past 12 months and what is expected to the end of this year. You can see from this chart that they are growing every item except Cash Flow. However, Cash Flow excluding Working Capital is growing.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth US$ | 42.09% | 7.28% | 2.46% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | 72.13% | 11.47% | 6.36% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 470.16% | 41.64% | 11.56% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | -113.40% | N/C | -190.08% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 140.16% | 19.21% | 12.47% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 139.88% | 19.12% | 29.40% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth US$ | 277.82% | 14.22% | 10.39% | <-this year |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | 750.74% | 23.87% | 13.64% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 930.26% | 26.27% | 15.61% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | -149.52% | N/C | 696.77% | <-this year |
| 8 | Dividend Growth | 347.91% | 23.89% | 33.85% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | 104.97% | 7.44% | 29.40% | <-this year |
| 5 | Revenue Growth CDN$ | 57.42% | 9.50% | 2.46% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | 90.70% | 13.78% | 2.45% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 470.16% | 41.64% | 11.56% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | -114.84% | N/C | -190.08% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 166.67% | 21.67% | 8.33% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 162.04% | 21.25% | 25.46% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth CDN$ | 368.61% | 16.70% | 6.33% | <-this year |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | 955.19% | 26.57% | 9.46% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 930.26% | 26.27% | 15.61% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | -161.42% | N/C | 674.83% | <-this year |
| 8 | Dividend Growth | 380% | 25.12% | 33.85% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | 158.08% | 9.95% | 25.46% | <-this year |
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.44%. The 5, 8 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.02% for all periods. The dividend growth is good (above 15% per year) at 23.6% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 8.3%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 38% with 5 year coverage at 37%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 14% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 78% with 5 year coverage good at 35%. FCF for 2024 varies from a negative $662M to a positive $803M. I am using $188M.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 38.04% | 37.02% |
| AEPS | 32.85% | 30.43% |
| CFPS | 13.94% | 9.63% |
| FCF | 78.07% | 35.13% |
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is too high at 1.03 and currently high at 0.81. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2024 which is too high at 1.04 and currently fine at 0.91 because this is a more important ratio for a Financials. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is low at 0.46 and 0.50 currently, but this ratio is not important for financials. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is fine at 1.28 and 1.25 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine for financials at 4.58 and 3.58 and currently at 4.98 and 3.98.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 1.03 | 0.81 |
| Lg Term R+A | 1.04 | 0.91 |
| Intang/GW | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| Liquidity | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| Liq. + CF | 0.40 | 0.79 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Leverage | 4.58 | 4.98 |
| D/E Ratio | 3.58 | 3.98 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 13 to the end of 2024 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | 21.67% | 23.14% | 21.25% | 1.89% |
| 2014 | 10 | 21.66% | 14.67% | 9.95% | 4.73% |
| 2011 | 13 | 19.68% | 14.86% | 4.83% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 13 to the end of 2024 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | 19.21% | 21.06% | 19.12% | 1.94% |
| 2014 | 10 | 20.61% | 11.63% | 7.44% | 4.19% |
| 2011 | 13 | 16.03% | 11.86% | 4.17% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.40, 17.88 and 20.79. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.49, 18.34 and 21.44. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.26, 17.78 and 20.41. The current ratio is 22.41 based on a stock price of $36.06 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $1.61. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
I also have Adjusted Earning per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.88, 14.94 and 18.38. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.18, 12.81 and 16.10. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.46, 12.29 and 15.70. The current ratio is 20.98 based on a stock price of $26.23 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $1.25. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you would get a similar result in CDN$.
I get a Graham Price of $19.53. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.65, 0.83 and 1.07. The current ratio is 1.85 based on a stock price of $36.06. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.19. The current P/B Ratio is 3.68 based on a Book Value of $3,920.4M, Book Value per Share of $9.79 and a stock price of $36.06. The current ratio is 211% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.27. The current P/CF Ratio is 16.29 based on a Stock Price of $36.06, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $2.21 and Cash Flow of $886.3M. The current ratio is 617% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.94%. The current dividend yield is 1.44% based on a stock price of $36.06 and dividends of $0.52. The current dividend yield is 26% below the historical median dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.94%. The current dividend yield is 1.44% based on a stock price of $36.06 and dividends of $0.52. The current dividend yield is 26% below the 19 year median dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.06. The current P/S Ratio is 8.68 based on a stock price of $36.06, Revenue estimate for 2025 of $1,664M and Revenue per Share of $4.50. The current ratio is 71% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The dividend yield testing is saying that the stock price is relatively expensive. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the other tests are saying the same thing. The stock price would have to be at $26.75 or lower to pass the 10 year median dividend yield test.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (3) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $42.30 with a high of $48.00 and low of $39.00. The consensus stock price of $42.30 implies a total return of 18.75% with 17.30% from capital gains and 1.44% from dividends based on a current stock price of $36.06.
Most analysts on Stock Chase really like this stock. However, one says sell because it is highly leveraged. Tony Dong on Motley Fool reviews this stock and thinks it is a good buy as it is a compounder. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks that this stock will continue to rise. The company put out a Press Release about their third quarter of 2025. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2024.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and its dividend payments. They have one warning out on this stock of Interest payments are not well covered by earnings.
Element Fleet Management Corp is a fleet management company, providing services and financings for commercial vehicle and equipment fleets. The company operates in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand. Key revenue is generated from United States and Canada. Its web site is here Element Fleet Management Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Bird Construction Inc (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Maple Leaf Foods Inc (TSX-MFI, OTC-MLFNF) ... learn more on Monday, December 15, 2025 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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