Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It seems like I have been hearing forever that BlackBerry will be revied. I have stopped believing in it. Obviously, some people still believe that the company has a great future. I have moved on. Since this is rather a risky stock, you should not invest any money in it that you cannot afford to lose. As far as I can see, the stock price is either cheap or reasonable. I will continue to follow this stock as I like to know how things turn out. However, I have no intentions of ever investing in this stock again.
I do not own this stock of BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB), but I used to. I made money on this stock when it was still RIM. However, it seems that we have been waiting a very long time for the stock to recover. Will it be a growth stock again? I do not know, but it seems there are people who think that it will be. Sorry, but I am not one of them.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they have over the past year gotten a new Chairman and a new CEO.
Another thing is that they do not allow you to download the annual report and other reports as PDFs. You have to look at them in the browser. It makes it much harder to find things. The annual report is 116 pages. Why make it difficult to review a report. I am personally focused on the information I want. If you are reviewing a company, would you not be focused on the information you want to see? I went to AnnualReports.com to get past reports.
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. Chart shows that this company has low to no growth.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth US$ | -5.64% | -1.15% | -26.85% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | -54.55% | -14.59% | -180.00% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | -239.78% | N/C | -23.85% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | -100.43% | N/C | -3800.00% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 0.00% | 0.00% | #DIV/0! | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | -68.37% | -20.57% | -16.91% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth | -87.48% | -18.76% | -29.17% | <-this year |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | 100.45% | 7.20% | -180.00% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 97.79% | 7.06% | 31.19% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | 98.11% | 7.08% | -96.41% | <-this year |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | 0.00% | 0.00% | #DIV/0! | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | -65.59% | -10.12% | -16.91% | <-this year |
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,003.30 you would have bought 127 shares at $7.90 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $0.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $596.90. Your total return would have been $596.90. This would be a total loss of 5.06% per year with 5.06% from capital loss and 0.00% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7.90 | $1,003.30 | 127 | 10 | $0.00 | $596.90 | $596.90 |
This stock has never paid a dividend so there is no dividend yield information, nor is there any The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) information.
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.12 and currently at 0.14. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is fine at 1.43 and 1.43 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still fine but lower at 1.41 and currently at 1.41. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.25 and 2.28 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.80 and 0.80 and currently at 1.78 and 0.78.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Intang/GW | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| Liquidity | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| Debt Ratio | 2.25 | 2.28 |
| Leverage | 1.80 | 1.78 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.80 | 0.78 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2023 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 0.00% | -13.51% | -13.51% | 0.00% |
| 2013 | 10 | 0.00% | -5.06% | -5.06% | 0.00% |
| 2008 | 15 | 0.00% | -14.53% | -14.53% | 0.00% |
| 2003 | 20 | 0.00% | -5.46% | -5.46% | 0.00% |
| 1998 | 25 | 0.00% | 4.13% | 4.13% | 0.00% |
| 1996 | 27 | 0.00% | 5.16% | 5.16% | 0.00% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2023 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 0.00% | -13.02% | -13.02% | 0.00% |
| 2013 | 10 | 0.00% | -7.16% | -7.16% | 0.00% |
| 2008 | 15 | 0.00% | -15.01% | -15.01% | 0.00% |
| 2003 | 20 | 0.00% | -5.57% | -5.57% | 0.00% |
| 1998 | 25 | 0.00% | 1.94% | 1.94% | 0.00% |
| 1996 | 27 | 0.00% | 5.27% | 5.27% | 0.00% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and therefore useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and useless. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.62, 11.95 and 15.48. You have to wonder how good the historical ratios are considering how many years the ratios were negative. However, since the current P/E Ratio is negative, no testing can be done. Analysts suggest that the P/E Ratio for 2026 will be negative, but the ratio for 2027 is 74.23, a very high ratio.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. But since half the AEPS values are negative and since the P/AEPS Ratio for 2025 is also negative, I do not think that I can be gained anything by doing this test.
I get a Graham Price of $1.61, but this is an estimate because the earnings are expected to be negative in 2025. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.15, 3.38 and 4.25. These are very high ratios. The P/GP ratio for 2025 is 1.91 based on a stock price of $3.08. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in CDN$.
If the earnings are positive in 2026 then, I get a Graham Price of $1.47. This produces a P/GPR ratio for 2026 of $2.09 based on a stock price of $3.08. This ratio is still below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in CDN$. You got to wonder how good the P/GP tests are considering the number of years of earnings losses.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.17. The current P/B Ratio is 1.83 based on a Book Value of $742M, Book Value per Share of $1.26 and stock price of $2.21. This ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$. This is a good test.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.10. The estimated Cash Flow per Share for 2025 is negative, but the one for 2026 is positive. The ratio for 2026 is 31.57 based on Cash Flow per Share of $0.07, Cash Flow of $41 and a stock price of $2.21. The current ratio is 344% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$. The Cash Flow for this stock varies a lot and is often negative, so you got to wonder how good this test is.
I can do no dividend yield testing because there are no dividends.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.27. The current P/S Ratio testis 2.16 based on a stock price of $2.21, Revenue estimate for 2025 of $604M and Revenue per Share of $1.03. The current ratio is 34% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$. This is a good test.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. The only other good test is the P/B Ratio test and it says that the stock price is reasonable.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Hold (6) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $4.59 ($3.32 US$), with a high of $6.15 ($4.45 US$) and low of $3.03 ($2.19 US$). The consensus price of $4.59 ($3.32 US$) implies a total return of 49.08% all from capital gains based on a current stock price of $3.08.
Last year when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Hold (9) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus was $6.26 ($4.709) and this implies a total and capital loss of 2.05% based on a current stock price of $6.39. What happened was that the stock price declined to $3.08, a decline of 51.80%.
There five entries on Stock Chase for 2024 with comments of Weak Buy, Risky, Sell, Hold and Do Not Buy. Stock Chase gives this company 4 stars out of 5. I must admit that it is hard to understand what the stars are for as this company has no to little growth. Rajiv Nanjapla on Motley Fool thinks this is a growth stock at a great discount. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks it is a good buy, but notes it has tons of work to do for a successful transformation. The company put out a Press Release GuruFocus Research via Yahoo Finance about its fourth quarter results for 2024. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their first quarter of 2025 results.
An article on CNW Group via Yahoo Finance talks about leadership changes for Blackberry. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street lists no risks or warnings for this stock.
BlackBerry Ltd. provides intelligent security software and services to enterprises and governments worldwide. BlackBerry aligned its software and services business around 2 key market opportunities: Cyber Security & IoT. Its web site is here BlackBerry Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF) ... learn more on Monday, August 5, 2024 around 5 pm.
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