Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like this company. As I said last Monday, I bought another 200 shares. I am using my fooling around money on this. Analysts seem to keep thinking that the stock price will rise. Maybe this year. The stock price would appear to be relatively cheap.
I own this stock of Mullen Group Ltd (TSX-MTL, OTC-MLLGF). I like to look at recommended small cap dividend paying stock to see if they would be a possible good investment now or in the future. The other thing to mention about this stock is that it converted from an income trust and decreased it dividends. The reduction in dividend brought the Dividend Payout Ratios down to a place that would allow for the company to begin growing dividends again.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have not done well on this stock. I bought at the wrong time. My total loss is 0.59% per year with a capital loss of 4.39% and dividends of 3.80%. It services the resource sectors and there is boom and bust. Part of the good part of buying companies that pay dividends, is not losing much. In this case I have not lost much. Unfortunately, I have not gain much, but I do have the dividends. Some insiders have bought stock over the past year, including the Chairman and CFO.
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,022.04 you would have bought 36 shares at $28.39 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $243.72 in dividends. The stock would be worth $505.44. Your total return would have been $749.16. This would be a total loss of 3.6% per year with 6.8% from capital gain and 3.20% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28.39 | $1,022.04 | 36 | 10 | $243.72 | $505.44 | $749.16 |
Last year, when I look at the 10 year return, the return was a bit better. If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,003.20 you would have bought 48 shares at $20.60 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $355.20 in dividends. The stock would be worth $698.40. Your total return would have been $1,053.60. This would be a total return of 0.61% per year with 3.56% from capital loss and 4.16% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20.90 | $1,003.20 | 48 | 10 | $355.20 | $698.40 | $1,053.60 |
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth stopped but expected to resume. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.63%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.91%, 4.61% and 4.28%. The dividend growth over the past 4.4% per year. The last dividend increase was for 20% and it occurred in 2022.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is a bit high at 50% with 5 year coverage at 54%. The DPR for 2023 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 23% with 5 year coverage at 24%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 48% with 5 year coverage a bit high at 67%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 37% with 5 year coverage at 40%.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 49.66% | 54.37% |
| FFO | 23.38% | 24.42% |
| AEPS | 48.32% | 67.42% |
| CFPS | 19.72% | 20.30% |
| FCF | 37.01% | 40.10% |
Debt Ratios are mostly good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.19 and currently at 0.53. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is too low at 0.76 and 0.78 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.55 and currently at 1.16. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.09 and 2.10 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are fine at 2.09 and 1.09 and currently at 2.10 and 1.10.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term | 0.19 | 0.53 |
| Intang/GW | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| Liquidity | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Liq. + CF | 2.55 | 1.16 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Leverage | 2.09 | 2.10 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.09 | 1.10 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 4.42% | 7.13% | 2.83% | 4.29% |
| 2013 | 10 | -6.09% | -3.60% | -6.80% | 3.20% |
| 2008 | 15 | -5.93% | 6.34% | 0.64% | 5.70% |
| 2003 | 20 | 8.80% | 7.18% | 0.32% | 6.86% |
| 1998 | 25 | 7.61% | 12.01% | 3.88% | 8.13% |
| 1997 | 26 | 9.16% | 2.71% | 6.45% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.97, 12.27 and 18.83. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.00, 15.40 and 18.81. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.93, 14.67 and 18.33. The current P/E Ratios is 10.25 based on a stock price of $12.79 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $1.25. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.72, 12.67 and 18.72. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.87, 19.76 and 24.74. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 10.15 based on a stock price of $12.79 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $1.26. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I also have Fund from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Fund from Operations Ratios are 4.22, 4.76 and 5.61. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.30, 7.01 and 8.86. The current P/FFO Ratio is 4.06 based on a stock price of $12.79 and FFO for last 12 months of $3.15. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $17.69. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.19 and 1.45. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.72 based on a stock price of $12.79. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.49. The current P/B Ratio is 1.16 based on a stock price of $12.79, Book Value of $973M, Book Value per Share of $11.04. The current ratio is 22% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I also have an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2024 of $11.70. This analyst calculates the Book Value Ratio differently than I do and, in this case, the 10 year P/B Ratio is 1.48. The BVPS implies a ratio of 1.09 based on a stock price of $12.97 and Book Value of $1,031M. This ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.67. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.35 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $2.94, Cash Flow of $258.9M and a stock price of $12.79. This ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.28%. The current dividend yield is 5.63% based on a stock price of $12.79 and dividends of $0.72. The current yield is 32% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.61%. The current dividend yield is 5.63% based on a stock price of $12.79 and dividends of $0.72. The current yield is 22% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.00. The current P/S is 0.56 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $2,015M, Revenue per Share of $22.88 and a stock price of $12.79. The current ratio is 44% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Both the dividend yield tests say that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the other tests are saying the same thing.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (4) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $17.50 with a high of $22.00 and low of $14.50. The consensus stock price of $17.50 implies a total return of 42.46% with 36.83% from capital gains and 5.63% from dividends based on a stock price of $12.79. Below you can see that analysts are expecting the stock price to rise, at least for the last 2 years, but it has declined instead.
Last year, when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (4) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $16.68. This implied a total return of 12.84% with 8.17% from capital gains and 4.67% from dividends based on a stock price of $15.42. What happened was a total loss of 12.39% with a capital loss of 47.06% and dividends of $4.67.
In 2022, when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (7) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $15.90. This implies a total return of $32.54%, with 26.79% from capital gains and 5.74% from dividends based on a stock price of $19.56.
On Stock Chase for 2024 there is a Buy and an Do Not Buy. The buy says the company is going a good job and is healthy. The Do not Buy says the stock can be volatile. Stock Chase gives this company 4 stars out of 5. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says buy for passive month income. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this is a stock to buy and hold forever. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their results for 2023. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their first quarter of 2024 results.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street gives out two warnings of unstable dividend track record; and has a high level of debt. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.
Mullen Group Ltd is a logistics provider with a network of independently operated businesses providing a wide range of service offerings including less-than-truckload, truckload, Specialized & Industrial Services warehousing and logistics, U.S., and International Logistics, and Corporate. The company derives the majority of its revenue from the Less-Than-Truckload segment and geographical revenue from Canada. The company also provides a diverse set of specialized services related to the energy, mining, forestry, and construction industries in western Canada. Its web site is here Mullen Group Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Hammond Power Solutions Inc (TSX-HPS.A, OTC-HMDPF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Utilities Ltd (TSX-CU, OTC-CDUAF) ... learn more on Wednesday, May 22, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Best Canadian Dividend Stock .... learn more on Tuesday, May 21, 2024 around 5 pm.
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