Friday, October 27, 2023

Trigon Metals Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Risky Mining Stock. Normal testing of the stock price is not possible, but analysts expect Revenue to skyrocket over the next few years. Debt Ratios are interesting as they have been getting money by selling shares, and have just recently had revenue, but next any earnings. This stock has no dividends and never had any dividends. See my spreadsheet on Trigon Metals Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Please note that I am only following this for fun and I want to see how things turn out with this resource stock. The way for me to do this is to check into each year. I intend to keep what shares I have and it is interesting that analysts think that this stock will have increasing revenue in the future.

I own this stock of Trigon Metals Inc (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF). I originally brought this stock in 2000 as Tathacus Resources Ltd. because it was doing interesting things. It was part of a basket of small caps that I was buying at that time. There was a reverse takeover (RTO) of this company on April 28, 2011 by Pan Terra Industries Inc. Symbol PNT. On May 2, 2012 there was a name change from Pan Terra Industries (PNT) to Kombat Copper Inc. (KBT). September 2016 there was a name change to Trigon Metals Inc.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this year there are some estimates. Analysts are expecting Revenue to increase greatly from $.9M in 2023 to $16M in 2024, then $75M and then $92M in 2025 and 2026. The other estimate to be given was Cash Flow per Share and it is expected to turn positive in 2024 to $0.02, then $0.15 and $0.14 in 2025 and 2026.

If you had invested in this company in December 2017, for $1,000.20 you would have bought 3,334 shares at $0.30 per share. In December 2022, after 5 years you would have received $0.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $566.78. Your total return would have been $566.78. This is a total return would be a total loss of 10.74% per year with 10.74% from capital loss and 0% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$0.30 $1,000.20 3,334 5 $0.00 $566.78 $566.78

This stock has no dividends and never had any dividends.

Debt Ratios are interesting as they have been getting money by selling shares, and have just recently had revenue, but never any earnings. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio are, of course, much too high at 1.27 and currently at 1.74. The Liquidity Ratio is very good 11.98 for 2023 and 5.38 currently. The Book Value is negative, so you get negative Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios. Until recently, their only source of income was selling shares. Now they have some Revenue, and analysts expect Revenue to climb up in the near future. They have had no earnings and there are no estimates of earnings in the near future.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 1.27 1.74
Intang/GW 0.00 0.00
Liquidity 11.98 5.38
Liq. + CF 7.21 6.33
Debt Ratio 0.84 0.78
Leverage -5.16 -3.52
D/E Ratio -6.16 -4.52

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2017 5 0.00% -10.74% -10.74% 0.00%
2012 10 0.00% -20.57% -20.57% 0.00%
2007 15 0.00% -28.26% -28.26% 0.00%
2002 20 0.00% -26.92% -26.92% 0.00%
1997 25 0.00% -12.65% -12.65% 0.00%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are all negative, so I cannot do any P/E Ratio testing.

This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I cannot do any Price/Graham Ratio testing as both the Earnings per Share (EPS) and Book Value (BV) are in this formula. The EPS has been negative and this year, the BV is also negative.

I cannot do any Price/Book Value Ratio (P/B Ratio) testing because the current book value is negative.

I cannot do any Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio (P/CF Ratio) testing because the cash flow is negative.

I cannot do any dividend yield testing because this stock does not have a dividend.

I cannot do any Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio (P/S Ratio) testing because this company had not revenue until the financial year ending in March 2023.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is that there is no normal testing that can be done. What I can see is that now that this company has revenue, analysts expect revenue to skyrocket. The company had $0.95M revenue in 2024 and analysts expect the revenue in 2024 to be $16.9M and then 75.3M in 2025 and $91.8M in 2026.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find one Strong Buy (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $0.44. This implies a total return of 166.67% with 166.67% all from capital gains based on a stock price of $0.165.

There seems to be some comments about this stock on Stock House. There are updates about this company on Business Wire. There is a short press release on Market Screener about their 2023 year end results. There is a short press release on Market Screener for their first quarter ending June 2023.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance has a short report on this stock. Simply Wall Street has 5 warnings out on this stock of negative shareholders equity; makes less than USD$1m in revenue ($677K), earnings have declined by 43.3% per year over past 5 years; does not have a meaningful market cap (CA$34M); and Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Trigon Metals Inc is an emerging copper and silver producer in the African continent. Trigon operates through the development of its Namibian mining and exploration permits. The company's projects include Kombat Mine and Gross Otavi in Namibia and the newly Silver Hill copper-silver exploration project in Morocco. Its web site is here Trigon Metals Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Dollarama Inc (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF) ... learn more. The last stock I wrote about was about was Dollarama Inc (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF) ... learn more on Monday, October 30, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

No comments:

Post a Comment