Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Canadian Tech Stock. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Some Debt Ratios are a problem, like the Liquidity Ratio, but others are fine. See my spreadsheet on BlackBerry Ltd.
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company really has not done well for over 10 years. It currently is not a tech stock that I would buy, even with my fooling around money. People keep thinking it is going to do something, but it does not. However, no one know what the future holds. The stock price might currently be reasonable, but since a lot of testing failed, that may not be true. I generally continue to follow stocks after selling them, as I am interested to see what they do in the future.
I do not own this stock of BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB), but I used to. I always liked tech stocks and this was a fast rising tech stock when I bought it. I bought it as RIM and made good money on it before it fell and crashed.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I bought this stock in 1999 and 2000 and sold stock in 2006, 2007 and 2010. It was RIM at the time and I made a total return of 20.18% per year. I have never thought of Tech stocks as long term buys. This stock has gone downhill since then with declining Revenues, Earnings and Cash Flow. Over this period, so the values have been less bad than others. The N/C is for non-calculable as negative numbers are not easy to deal with.
| Year | Item | Tot. Growth | Per Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth US$ | -29.61% | -6.78% |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | -140.66% | N/C |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | -281.23% | N/C |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | -137.36% | N/C |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | -66.70% | -19.74% |
| 10 | Revenue Growth | -94.08% | -24.62% |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | 98.35% | 7.09% |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | -13.62% | -1.45% |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | -111.42% | N/C |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | -73.49% | -12.43% |
If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,003.00 you would have bought 85 shares at $11.80 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $0.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $374.85. Your total return would have been $374.85. This is a total loss would be 9.37% per year all a capital loss.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.80 | $1,003.00 | 85 | 10 | $0.00 | $374.85 | $374.85 |
This stock has never had a dividend, so I cannot talk about dividend yields and Dividend Payout Ratios.
Some Debt Ratios are a problem, like the Liquidity Ratio, but others are fine. This company currently has no debt, so the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.00. They do have Intangibles and Goodwill and the Ratio for this is currently at 0.73, with a current one of 0.58. The current one is fine, the year end one is a bit high but still fine or under 1.00. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 1.02 and the current one of 0.95. I prefer this ratio to be at 1.50 or higher. Cash Flow does not help the Liquidity Ratio as the company has a negative cash flow. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.04. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio at 1.96 and 0.96 are good.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Intang/GW | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| Liquidity | 1.02 | 0.95 |
| Liq. + CF | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Debt Ratio | 2.04 | 2.05 |
| Leverage | 1.96 | 1.95 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.96 | 0.95 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2022 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 5 | 0.00% | -20.67% | -20.67% | 0.00% |
| 2012 | 10 | 0.00% | -9.37% | -9.37% | 0.00% |
| 2007 | 15 | 0.00% | -19.42% | -19.42% | 0.00% |
| 2002 | 20 | 0.00% | 1.25% | 1.25% | 0.00% |
| 1997 | 25 | 0.00% | 5.45% | 5.45% | 0.00% |
| 1996 | 26 | 0.00% | 5.11% | 5.11% | 0.00% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2022 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 5 | 0.00% | -21.83% | -21.83% | 0.00% |
| 2012 | 10 | 0.00% | -12.12% | -12.12% | 0.00% |
| 2007 | 15 | 0.00% | -21.07% | -21.07% | 0.00% |
| 2002 | 20 | 0.00% | 2.01% | 2.01% | 0.00% |
| 1997 | 25 | 0.00% | 6.15% | 6.15% | 0.00% |
| 1996 | 26 | 0.00% | 5.15% | 5.15% | 0.00% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are negative and useless. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.37, 13.94 and 18.41. But you must wonder about the historical ratios because of all the negative ratios over the years. In any event, the current P/E Ratio is negative, so there is no possible testing here.
I have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.13, 75.00 and 120.45. The corresponding 10 year ratios are negative and useless. The current P/AEPS is 235.00 based on AEPS estimate for 2024 of $0.02 and a stock price of $4.78. The P/AEPS Ratio is very high which would imply an expensive stock price. Even the P/AEPS Ratio for 2025 is quite high at 119.50, and that is below the high of the 5 year median ratios. I do wonder about this testing. This testing is in US$ and you will get similar problems in CDN$.
I get a Graham Price of $1.08. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.00, 3.26 and 4.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.94 based on a stock price of $6.39. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is done in CDN$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.96. The current P/B Ratio is 3.24 based on a stock price of $4.78, Book Value of $859M and Book Value per Share of $1.48. The current ratio is 65% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is done in US$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.10. Unfortunately, the current P/CF Ratio is negative and unusable. So, I can do no testing here.
I can do no dividend yield testing because there are no dividends.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.27. The current P/S Ratio is 3.24 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $860M, Revenue per Share of $1.48 and a stock price of $4.78. The current ratio is 1% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The best test and a P/S Ratio test shows this. The only other valid test is the P/B Ratio test and it says the stock is expensive. The problem with the P/GP Ratio test is all the negative earnings, which is part of the formula for the Graham Price.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (9) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $6.26 ($4.709) and this implies a total and capital loss of 2.05% based on a current stock price of $6.39.
All the analysts on Stock Chase for 2023 say Do Not Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says recent news have boosted BB’s confidence. Rajiv Nanjapla on Motley Fool thinks this stock will produce superior returns over the next 3 years. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their year end of March 2023 results.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They say that Brokers have made major increases to their earnings forecasts. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 1 and one half stars out of 5. They have 1 warning message of currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years,
BlackBerry is now exclusively a software provider with a stated goal of end-to-end secure communication for enterprises. The firm provides endpoint management and protection to enterprises, specializing in regulated industries like government, as well as embedded software to the automotive, medical, and industrial markets. Its web site is here BlackBerry Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF) ... learn more on Friday, August 4, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy August 2023.... learn more on Thursday, August 3, around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
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