Keyera Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price is relatively cheap. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are probably fine based on AFFO. Debt Ratios are rather high as the company has a lot of debt, but they will probably be ok. See my spreadsheet on Keyera Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is relatively cheap. Most utilities have lots of debt. They have a good record of dividend increases with increases in 16 of the 18 years I cover. However, there was no dividend increase in 2021 and analysts do not one expect anytime soon. Dividend Payout Ratios are high, but are expected to decrease. You could collect a good dividend while waiting for the company to revive. It is cheap. However, it is always a risk when you get a company cheap. It is on Money Sense’s list of 100 best Canadian dividend stocks. It is a utility and utility stocks provide good income. This stock has a medium risk level. So, it is probably relatively safe to buy.

I do not own this stock of Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. The title of the article in Investor’s Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. Jennifer is now works for the Globe and Mail.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that revenues, after decreasing for two years is up by some 65% in 2021. Analysts did expect a good increase, but of some 48%. Analysts expected a big increase in EPS of some 514%, and EPS was up but by 425%.

The estimates for the company seem to all decline from 2022 to 2023. For example, Revenue for these years is $6,635M, $5,363M, and $5,874M. EPS are for these years $2.26, $2,06, and $2,02. Cash Flow per Share over these years are $3.73, $3.46, and $3.43. The only estimates to improve is those for dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, for $1,000.00 you would have bought 40 shares at $25.00 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $614.70 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,141.20. Your total return would have been $1,755.90.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$25.00	$1,000.00	40	10	$614.70	$1,141.20	$1,755.90

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.55%. The 5 year and historical median dividend yields are also good at 5.94% and 5.94%. The 10 year median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.42%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 4.65% per year for the past 5 years. Dividends have been flat from 2020 to 2022. Analysts expect them to increase in 2023. But last year they expected an increase in 2022. The last dividend increase was in 2019 and it was for 6.7%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are probably fine based on AFFO. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 131% with 5 year coverage at 125%. The DPR for EPS is expected to be 85% in 2022. The DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) for 2021 is 63% with 5 year coverage at 61%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2021 is 55% with 5 year coverage at 54%. It is only a bit lower in 2022 at 51%. The DPR for CFPS is better if it is 40% or less. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2021 is 631% with the 5 year coverage negative. The DPR for FCF for 2022 is expected to be negative in 2022.

Debt Ratios are rather high as the company has a lot of debt, but they will probably be fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.55 and is fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 1.20. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is 1.38. It is better if this is 1.50 or better. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is 1.49. This is also better at 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 3.06 and 2.06 and are better at below 3.00 and 2.00. Companies in this business tend to have high debt loads.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	4.65%	-1.61%	-6.75%	5.13%
2011	10	7.29%	6.93%	1.33%	5.60%
2006	15	6.82%	17.33%	8.56%	8.76%
2002	19	11.46%	19.04%	9.60%	9.44%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.31, 20.12 and 23.93. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 23.05, 27.59 and 32.07. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.04, 22.18 and 26.32. The current P/E Ratio is 12.98 based on a Stock Price of $29.33 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $2.26. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Distributable Cash data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Distributable Cash are 8.30, 10.31 and 12.33. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.92, 14.59 and 16.34. The current P/DC Ratio is 10.08 based on a stock price of $29.33 and DC of $2.91. The current ratio is below the low the of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $25.12 . The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.77, 2.22 and 2.52. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.17 based on a stock price of $29.33. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.53. The current P/B Ratio is 2.36 based on a stock price of $29.33, Book Value of $2,743M and a Book Value per Share of $12.41. The current ratio is 33% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2022 of $13.30. This would produce a P/B Ratio of 2.21 with a stock price of $29.33 and Book Value of $2,940M. The current ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 11.42. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.86 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate of $3.73, Cash Flow of $824M and a stock price of $29.33. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.94%. The current dividend yield is 6.55% based on dividends of $1.92 and a stock price of $29.33. The current dividend yield is 10% above the historical median dividend yield This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.42%. The current dividend yield is 6.55% based on dividends of $1.92 and a stock price of $29.33. The current dividend yield is 48% above the historical median dividend yield This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.79. The current P/S Ratio is 0.98 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $6,501M, Revenue per Share of $30.02 and a stock price of $29.33. The current ratio is 45% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is cheap. The 10 year median dividend yield test says this as does the P/S Ratio test. All the tests say the same thing except for the historical median dividend yield test which says the price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (5) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is 34.43. This implies a total return of 23.93% with 17.39% from capital gains and 6.55% from dividends based on a current stock price of $29.33.

Analysts on Stock Chase think this stock is a Buy. It is on the Money Sense list with a C Rating. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool thinks this is a safe stock to buy now. Vineet Kulkarni on Motley Fool thinks this is a good passive income stock to buy. The company put out a Press Release on their 2021 results. The company put out a Press Release on their second quarter of 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street gives out 3 risks for this stock of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.6% per year for the next 3 years, dividend of 6.78% is not well covered by earnings or cash flows and has a high level of debt.

Keyera is a midstream energy business that operates primarily out of Alberta. Its primary lines of business consist of the gathering and processing of natural gas in western Canada, the storage, transportation, and liquids blending for natural gas liquids and crude oil, and the marketing of NGLs, iso-octane, and crude oil. Its web site is here Keyera Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Dollarama Inc (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Cenovus Energy Inc (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE) ... learn more on Wednesday, November 2, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks November 2022 .... learn more on Tuesday, November 1, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Dollarama Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer, sort of. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. It is hard to really classify this as a dividend paying stock when dividends are so low. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. Debt Ratios are bad because the company has a negative Book Value. See my spreadsheet on Dollarama Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I would not buy this stock. First it really is not a dividend stock because the dividend yield is so low. I do not buy stocks which have a dividend yield less than 1%. Also, the book value is negative. I do not buy companies with a negative book value. I realize that people have made lots of money on this stock and some people I know think it is great. However, this is not the sort of stock I like to buy for the long term.

I do not own this stock of Dollarama Inc (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF). I belong to an investment club and this was a stock I volunteered to look at. I had, of course, heard of this stock before and people have mentioned that it is doing very well for shareholders.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the Book Value has turned negative again. They spend the cash they had and their cash flow to pay off debt and to repurchase shares. They spend $1,275M on buying back shares. This means that if the company can go into bankruptcy and have no value. They do not have enough money to pay all their bills. It is interesting that the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) has no shares in this company. Other insiders do.

They are supposed to be in Consumer stock, not a Finance stock. They may not get into financial trouble, but it is a very real risk.

The site Alpha Spread that does relative valuations says that the stock is overpriced. It gets a relative price of $53.42 compared to the current market price of $80.84 CDN$. They say it is overpriced by 34%. See Alpha Spread. The financial statements are dated around February 1 each year. See below that Simply Wall Street says the stock’s fair value is $117.20 and it is undervalued. The Financial Statement I am working on is dated January 30, 2022.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, for $1,001.25 you would have bought 135 shares at $7.42 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $199.57 in dividends. The stock would be worth $8,546.85. Your total return would have been $8,746.42.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$7.42	$1,001.25	135	10	$199.57	$8,546.85	$8,746.42

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 0.27%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 0.37%, 0.43% and 0.43%. It is hard to really classify this as a dividend paying stock when dividends are so low. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) and 8.8% per year for the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 9.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 9% with 5 year coverage at 11%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 6% with 5 year coverage at 8%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 7% with 5 year coverage at 8%.

Debt Ratios are bad because the company has a negative Book Value. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.08. This is good and low. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.79. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is 1.89. This is fine. The Debt Ratio is 0.98 and this is not fine. This means that the break up value of the company less than zero.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 13 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	8.77%	14.53%	14.06%	0.46%
2011	10	12.68%	24.66%	23.92%	0.74%
2008	13		26.64%	25.94%	0.70%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.59, 25.31, and 30.39. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.28, 24.65 and 29.69. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.58, 23.63 and 28.13. The current P/E Ratio is 30.54 based on a stock price of $81.84 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $2.68. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I cannot calculate a Graham Price as the stock has a negative Book Value. I cannot do the Price/Book Value per Share Ratio test because the stock has a negative Book Value.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 18.47. The current P/CF Ratio is 22.06 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate of $3.71, Cash Flow of $1,086M and a stock price of $ 81.84. The current ratio is 19% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median and very close to expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.43%. The current dividend yield is 0.27% based on dividends of $0.2162 and a stock price of $81.84. The current dividend yield is 37% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.42%. The current dividend yield is 0.27% based on dividends of $0.2162 and a stock price of $81.84. The current dividend yield is 36% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.51. The current P/S Ratio is 4.94 based on Revenue for 2023 of $4,855M, Revenue per Share of $16.58 and a stock price of $81.84. The current P/S Ratio is 40% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The dividend yield tests show this and it is confirmed by the Price/Sales Ratio test. Other tests that I can do show that the stock is on the expensive side. It is not good that I cannot do all the testing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (7), Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $87.35. This implies a total return of $7.00% with 6.73% from capital gains and 0.27% from dividends based on a current stock price of $84.84.

Most recommendations on Stock Chase is a Buy or Hold, but there is one Sell. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense list. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley thinks this is a trustworthy stock to buy. Demetris Afxentiou on Motley Fool thinks this is a good stock to have when markets are volatile. The company put out a Press Release on Newswire about their fourth quarter results. The company put out a Press Release on their second quarter results on Newswire.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance says the fair value of this stock is $117.20 CDN$. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 warning signs of negative shareholders’ equity; has a high level of debt; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months.

Dollarama Inc is a Canada-based company principally engaged in operating discount retail stores. The company provides a broad range of everyday consumer products, general merchandise, and seasonal items, with merchandise at low fixed price points. The company's stores are throughout Canada. All the stores are owned and operated by the company. Its web site is here Dollarama Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Ovintiv Inc (TSX-OVV, NYSE-OVV) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF) ... learn more on Monday, around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Ovintiv Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Energy. The dividends are again growing but they have been all over the place in the past. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are probably fine. Debt Ratios are fine and the company is currently making a profit. See my spreadsheet on Ovintiv Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price seems to be reasonable. It may even be cheap. Since this is an energy stock, I do not think that it is a long time hold type company. Energy companies can make you money over the cycles, but they are cyclical. Companies in this sector are also risky.

I do not own this stock of Ovintiv Inc (TSX-OVV, NYSE-OVV). I have owned this stock before as Alberta Energy Co. This company split into two companies in the later part of 2009 - Encana Corporation and Cenovus Energy Inc. On January 27, 202, this company has changed its name from Encana Corp (TSX-ECA, OTC-ECA) to Ovintiv Inc (TSX-OVV, OTC-OVV).

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this is the sort of company you buy in the low part of its cycle and sell in the high part. The stock price got as low of $2.95 CDN$ in 2020. The problem, of course, is not only are such stock cyclical they are also risky.

Analysts have increased a lot what Revenues are expected in 2022 and 2023 from $7,942 and $7,693 last year to $11,573M and $13,164M this year. They have also raised expected EPS of $6.93 and $5.99 of last year to $9.63 and $14.50 this year. This is in US$.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.96%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.27%, 1.67% and 1.45%. The dividends have grown at a moderate rate (8% to 14%) at 8.04% per year over the past 5 years. However, dividends have gone up and down and been flat in the past. I have 29 years of data and yearly dividends have been increased 12 times and decreased 10 times.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, for $1,038.95 you would have bought 11 shares at $94.45 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $152.45 in dividends. The stock would be worth $468.16. Your total return would have been $620.61.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$94.45	$1,038.95	11	10	$152.45	$468.16	$620.61

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are probably fine. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 9%. I cannot calculate the 5 year coverage because of earnings losses. The DPR for EPS is expected to also be at 9% next year. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2021 is 4% with 5 year coverage at 3.7%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2021 is 6% with 5 year coverage at 25%.

Debt Ratios are fine and the company is currently making a profit. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is currently at 0.55. The ratio was 1.71 last year, but in 2021 the debt was reduced and the stock price went up, so now the ratio is good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 0.58. If you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio is 1.67 and a good one. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is good at 1.56. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.77 and 1.77.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2021 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	8.04%	-10.80%	-11.59%	0.79%
2011	10	-17.55%	-5.81%	-7.66%	1.86%
2006	15	-4.60%	-5.13%	-7.56%	2.43%
2001	20	0.61%	2.91%	-1.06%	3.97%
1996	25	2.13%	5.86%	1.60%	4.26%
1992	29	2.30%	8.75%	3.85%	4.90%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2021 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	9.28%	-9.71%	-10.51%	0.80%
2011	10	-19.32%	-7.88%	-9.62%	1.74%
2006	15	-5.13%	-5.39%	-8.04%	2.65%
2001	20	1.76%	4.89%	-0.16%	5.05%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.56, 8.39 and 12.22. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 2.76, 4.45 and 6.14. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.82, 8.24 and 10.00. The current P/E Ratio is 5.27 based on a stock price of $69.59 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $13.21 (9.63 US$). The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$. The P/E Ratios are very low. This is because of earnings losses.

I get a Graham Price of $95.88. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.63, 1.00 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.73 based on a stock price of $69.59. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.35. The current ratio is 2.26 based on a Book Value of $5,821M, Book Value per Share of $22.56 and a stock price of $51.00. The current ratio is 68% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2022 of $24.40. This will produce a Book Value of $6,295M, and a P/B Ratio of 2.09 based on a stock price of $51.00. The current P/B Ratio is 55% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.32. The current P/CF Ratio is 3.09 based on Cash Flow per Share of $16.50 and a stock price of $51.00. The current P/CF Ratio is 7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.68%. The current dividend yield is $1.96% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $51.00. The current dividend yield is 17% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.61%. The current dividend yield is $1.96% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $51.00. The current dividend yield is 21.5% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.75. The current P/S Ratio is 1.14 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $11,573M, Revenue per Share of $44.86 and a stock price of $51.00. The current ratio is 35% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably still cheap. The 10 year dividend yield test says this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. A lot of the other testing is showing the stock price as reasonable. The exception is the P/B Ratio test. But the Book Value is looking at what the company has done in the past. Other testing is looking at the potential future. Dividends are set based on how management feels about the future. Estimates, like Revenue, are set depending on how analysts feel about the future of the company.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (10), Buy (10), and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $77.04 ($56.18 US$). This implies a total return of 12.68% with 10.71% from capital gains and 1.97% from dividend based stock price of $69.59.

An analyst this year on Stock Chase said he likes CNQ better. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool thinks you should buy this well it is cheap. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says if you had bought this stock at its 2020 lows, you could have grown your capital by 19 times. The company reports on a Press Release their results for 2021. The company in a Press Release talks about their second quarter of 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street reviews this stock via Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and list 2 risks of has a high level of debt and unstable dividend track record.

Ovintiv Inc is an independent oil and gas producer with key assets in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Montney, and Duvernay areas of North America. Its web site is here Ovintiv Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was CCL Industries Inc (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Dollarama Inc (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF) ... learn more on Friday, October 28, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Timothy Snyder – Substack .... learn more on Thursday, October 27, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

CCL Industries Inc

I have today bought some more shares in SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF) for my TFSA. Generally, this account is my fooling around money, but REITs are good for portfolio diversification and passive income and that is why I have this stock. It is also quite cheap at present. I last wrote about this stock on Wednesday, September 7, 2022 .

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Materials. The stock price seems reasonable. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. Debt Ratios are fine. See my spreadsheet on CCL Industries Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is testing as reasonable. Because of a pass growth spurt this stock has some rather high ratios. For example, a P/E Ratio is 18.65 is on the high side. The P/GP Ratios are also high. The growth spurt ended in 2015 and you must wonder if they will have another one. However, Alpha Spread gives this stock a valuation of $67.48. So, they do not think the stock is overvalued. It is on the Money Sense list with a C rating. Although, personally, I am not interested in this stock.

I do not own this stock of CCL Industries Inc (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF). In 2009 I read a favorable report on this stock of which I had also heard about before. This is also a dividend paying stock and in 2009 it was on Dividend Achievers list.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that as the chart below shows, this stock has really taken off in the last 10 years and have earned their shareholders a lot of money. It has a stock price growth spurt from 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, growing 39.58%, 84.28%, 58.89%, 78.26% over these four years. Growth rates have moderated since then. From 2015 to today covering almost 7 years, total growth is 49%. So, growth over this period is at 5.88% per year (with Total Growth at 6.88% per year). See difference in 5 and 10 year investments below.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, for $1,004.08 you would have bought 163 shares at $6.16 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $728.28 in dividends. The stock would be worth $11,056.29.59. Your total return would have been $11,784.57.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$6.16	$1,004.08	163	10	$728.28	$11,056.29	$11,784.57

If you had invested in this company in December 2016, for $1,002.44 you would have bought 19 shares at $52.73 per share. In December 2021, after 5 years you would have received $61.18 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,288.77. Your total return would have been $1,349.95.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$52.76	$1,002.44	19	5	$61.18	$1,288.77	$1,349.95

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.46%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are low at 1.16% and 1.12%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.03%. The dividend yield has in the past broken into the 2% ranges. The dividend growth has been good (15% or higher) at 16% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 14% and it occurred in 2022.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 25% with 5 year coverage at 23%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2021 is 25% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 13% with 5 year coverage at 11%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 is 28% with 5 year coverage at 23%. The number produced by CCL and another site are different but close.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.14 and is good and low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is good at 1.73. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is good at 1.97. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.04 and 1.04.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	16.00%	6.24%	5.15%	1.09%
2011	10	19.62%	29.26%	27.11%	2.15%
2006	15	16.41%	19.43%	17.99%	1.45%
2001	20	13.74%	18.55%	17.03%	1.51%
1996	25	11.44%	14.46%	13.28%	1.17%
1991	30	9.45%	13.87%	12.56%	1.31%
1987	34	9.06%	13.36%	11.92%	1.44%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.39, 2.02, and 25.52. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.02, 21.24 and 25.58. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.99, 14.57 and 20.73. The current P/E Ratio is 18.65 based on a stock price of $66.95 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $3.59. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $41.39. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.36, 1.76 and 2.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.62 based on a stock price of $66.95. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. Although, the P/GP Ratios are very high. Any ratio over 1.20 is considered high.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.38. The current P/B Ratio is 3.16 based on a Book Value of $3,823M, Book Value per Share of $18.33 and a stock price of $66.95. The current ratio is 7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. These ratios are high also.

I also have an estimate for 2022 for the Book Value per Share of $22.60. This Book Value per Share gives a P/B Ratio of 2.96 based on a stock price of $66.95 and a Book Value of $4,073M. This P/B Ratio is 12% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.04. The current ratio is 10.30 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $6.50 and a stock price of $66.95. This ratio is 21% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.03%. The current dividend yield is 1.43% based on a stock price of $66.95 and dividends of $0.96. The current dividend yield is 29% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.12%. The current dividend yield is 1.43% based on a stock price of $66.95 and dividends of $0.96. The current dividend yield is 28% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.97. The current P/S Ratio is 1.89 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $6,382M, Revenue per Share of $35.41 and a stock price of $66.95. The current ratio is 4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The current thinking is that the 10 year median dividend yield should be used rather than the historical one. The 10 year median dividend yield test says that the stock is cheap. The P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable. Most of the testing is showing the stock price as reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (7) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $78.40. This implies a total return of 18.98% with 17.55% from capital gains and 1.43% from dividends based on a stock price of $66.95.

Analysts in 2022 on Stock Chase think this stock is a Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense list with a C Rating. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks this stock is overbought. (That is that too many people are buying and that has pushed the price up.) Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this is a good stock to buy in a challenging market. The company has a press release on Yahoo about their 2021 results. The company has a press release on Accesswire about their second quarter of 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street lists to risk warnings of has a high level of debt and significant insider selling over the past 3 months.

CCL Industries Inc manufactures and sells packaging and packaging-related products. The company operates through various segments, which include The CCL segment, which generates most of the revenue, the Avery segment; the Checkpoint segment and the Innovia segment. Its geographical segments include Canada; USA and Puerto Rico; Mexico, Brazil, Chile & Argentina; Europe; and Asia, Australia, Africa & New Zealand. Its web site is here CCL Industries Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Brookfield Asset Management Inc (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ovintiv Inc (TSX-OVV, NYSE-OVV) ... learn more on Wednesday, October 26, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Toxic Brew for Pension Funds .... learn more on Tuesday, October 25, 2022, O around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Brookfield Asset Management Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. The stock price seems reasonable. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. Debt Ratios are fine. See my spreadsheet on Brookfield Asset Management Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price seems reasonable. I do dislike this stock because it is so complex. I personally would not buy it although I know a few people who do recommend it. The stock has produced good returns for shareholders.

I do not own this stock of Brookfield Asset Management Inc (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM). I bought this stock as Hees International in 1987 and more in 1988, 1989 and 1990. At first dividends were semi-annual and there were some good dividend increases. There was a much lower dividend increase in 1991. Between 1991 and when I sold in 1999 there was no dividend increases. The stock was going nowhere at that time, so I sold. There have been a lot of name changes and amalgamations since I had this stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed what I have always disliked about this company and that is the complexity involved. I would not personally invest in this company because of that.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, for $1,009.44 you would have bought 81 shares at $12.46per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $500.56 in dividends. The stock would be worth $6187.59. Your total return would have been $6,688.15.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$12.46	$1,009.44	81	10	$500.56	$6,187.59	$6,688.15

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.48%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also low at 1.42% and 4.45%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.07%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 8.45% per year. The last dividend increase was low (below 8%) at 7.7%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 22% with 5 year coverage at 31%. The company is putting out Distributable Earnings (or Cash) and the DPR for 2021 is 13% with 5 year coverage at 21%. The company is also putting out Funds from Operations (FFO) data and the DPR for 2021 is 11% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2021 is 7% with 5 year coverage at 8%. DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 ranges from 119% to 150% with 5 year coverage from 28% to 37%. (There is disagreement on FCF.)

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 1.86. This means that the debt is higher than the stocks Market Cap. The Mortgage/Cash & Investment Ratio is 0.94. I calculate a Liquidity Ratio of 1.19. The Debt Ratio is 1.53. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2021 are 2.90 and 1.90 and are fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2021 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	7.21%	22.26%	20.93%	1.33%
2011	10	10.82%	22.63%	19.88%	2.75%
2006	15	8.21%	12.39%	10.67%	1.72%
2001	20	6.03%	19.42%	16.21%	3.21%
1996	25	6.74%	17.22%	14.28%	2.94%
1991	30	5.59%	16.08%	12.99%	3.09%
1987	34	5.96%	12.84%	10.54%	2.30%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2021 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	8.45%	23.72%	22.37%	1.35%
2011	10	8.45%	19.91%	17.33%	2.58%
2006	15	7.60%	11.89%	11.89%	1.80%
2001	20	7.24%	21.63%	21.63%	4.04%
1996	25	7.05%	17.66%	17.66%	3.04%
1991	30	5.26%	15.46%	15.46%	2.81%
1987	34	6.04%	13.02%	13.02%	2.39%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.21, 18.65 and 23.09. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.41, 15.24 and 16.98. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.47, 13.67 and 15.44. The current P/E Ratio is 12.33 based on a stock price of $52.64 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $4.27 ($3.08 US$). This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in CDN$.

The company provides Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median P/FFO Ratios are 8.43, 10.33 and 13.04. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.62, 10.46 and 13.48. The current P/FFO Ratio is 13.21 based on FFO estimate for 2022 of $2.87 and a stock price of $37.90. This ratio is between the median and high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$.

I get a Graham Price of $59.57. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.85, 1.02 and 1.14. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.88 based on a stock price of $52.64. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.43. The current P/B Ratio is 1.42 based a stock price of $37.90, Book Value of $41,652M and a Book Value per Share of $26.67. The current ratio is below the 10 year median ratio by 0.9%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$.

I do have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2022. The Book Value per Share estimate for 2022 if $28.40 and this will give a P/B Ratio of 1.33 based on a stock price of $37.90 and Book Value of $44,358M. This ratio is 7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.81. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.61 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $4.40, stock price of $37.90 and Cash Flow of $6,872M. This ratio is 12% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.07%. The current dividend yield is 1.48% based on a stock price of $37.90, and dividends of $0.56. The current dividend yield is 29% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.48%. The current dividend yield is 1.48% based on a stock price of $37.90, and dividends of $0.56. The current dividend yield is 1.7% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.04. The current P/S Ratio is 0.70 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $84,984M, Revenue per Share of $54.41 and a stock price of $37.90. The current ratio is 33% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The 10 year dividend yield test says this. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is cheap. Generally, the dividends reflect what management thinks over the shorter term. Revenue estimates reflects analysts’ attitudes over a longer term. Revenue is what pushes earnings and cash flow on a longer term basis. Most of the other tests, except for the historical dividend yield test says the stock price is reasonable and above or below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (7), Hold (2) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $73.89 ($53.33 US$). This implies a total return of $41.85% with 40.38% from capital gains and 1.47% from dividends based on a stock price of $52.64 CDN$.

The analysts on Stock Chase like this stock and rate it a Buy. They give this company 5 stars out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense list. Robin Brown on Motley Fool thinks this is a solid stock to pick up now. Jed Lloren on Motley Fool thinks this is a Blue Chip stock to pick up now. The company put out a Press Release on their 2021 results. The company put out a Press Release about its second quarter.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance talks about ownership of this company. Simply Wall Street puts out three warnings risks of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; large one-off items impacting financial results; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months.

Brookfield Asset Management Inc owns and manages commercial property, power, and infrastructure assets. Its investment focus includes Real Estate, Infrastructure, Renewable Power, and Private Equity. Brookfield has the greatest amount of assets in Real Estate and generates the most revenue through Private Equity. Located around the world, its assets are concentrated in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Australia. Its web site is here Brookfield Asset Management Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be CCL Industries Inc (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF) ... learn more on Monday, October 21, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Molson Coors Canada

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Consumer. The stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth restarted. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. Debt Ratios are fine but they have a low Liquidity Ratio. See my spreadsheet on Molson Coors Canada.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably cheap. This would not be my favourite consumer stock. Dividends are unstable. Total Returns have been very inconsistent.

I do not own this stock of Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP). In 2008 I did a spreadsheet on this stock as it has recently been recommended and generally, beer companies make good money. Labatt’s was one of the original companies that I purchased and I did very well with it before it was bought out.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that their intangibles items of the Balance Sheet are greater than the market cap of the stock. The Intangibles/Market Cap Ratio is 1.26. It means than the intangibles are on the Balance Sheet at a higher value of the market value of the stock. This is not good. They also have Goodwill on the Balance Sheet and the Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is 0.63. If you add these ratios together, the ratio is 1.84.

They have been mucking around with dividends lately. Dividend changes from 2019 to 2022 are up 19.51%, down 70.92%, up 19.30%, and up 123.53%. In 2019 dividends were $1.96 and currently they are $1.52, some 22% below the 2019 dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, for $1,037.30 you would have bought 23 shares at $45.10 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $388.76 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,352.40. Your total return would have been $1,741.16.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$45.10	$1,037.30	23	10	$388.76	$1,352.40	$1,741.16

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth restarted. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4%) at 3.09%. The 10 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 2.17%. The 5 year and historical median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.84% and 1.87%. The dividends were cut in 2020 and 2021. In 2021, only 2 dividends were paid. The dividends are down by the end of 2021 by 16% per year. In 2022, the dividends were increased 11.8% and 4 dividends will be paid.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 15% with 5 year coverage at 50%. The DPR for EPS is expected to be 45% in 2022 when 4 dividends are again paid. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2021 is 16% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for AEPS for 2022 is expected to be 39%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2021 is 7% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR CFPS is expected to be 21% in 2022. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2021 is 14% with 5 year coverage at 21%. The DPR for 2022 for FCF is expected to be 32%.

Debt Ratios are fine but they have a low Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.63. It is fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is low at 0.77. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is still low at 1.16. I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.98. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.06 and 1.04.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2021 in CDN$ from Molson into Molson Coors. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	-17.10%	-13.06%	-14.75%	1.69%
2011	10	-3.75%	6.13%	2.69%	3.44%
2006	15	0.97%	4.69%	1.87%	2.82%
2001	20	2.76%	7.12%	3.33%	3.79%
1996	25	2.20%	9.27%	5.13%	4.15%
1995	26	2.08%	9.71%	5.44%	4.27%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2021 in US$ from Molson into Molson Coors. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	-16.14%	-12.07%	-13.79%	1.71%
2011	10	-5.83%	3.68%	0.57%	3.11%
2006	15	0.40%	1.76%	-0.72%	2.48%
2001	20	2.69%	5.61%	2.80%	2.81%
1996	25	4.08%	10.46%	6.62%	3.84%
1991	30	3.39%	8.03%	5.07%	2.96%
1990	31	3.28%	7.89%	4.99%	2.90%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.71, 13.63 and 15.56. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.65, 14.77 and 17.39. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.96, 16.15 and 18.54. The current P/E Ratio is 14.58 based on a stock price of $49.12 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $3.37. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is done in US$.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.94, 12.85 and 14.76. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.70, 12.70 and 14.70. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 12.59 based on AEPS estimate for 2022 of $3.90 and a stock price of $49.12. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is done in US$.

I get a Graham Price of $91.81. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.84, 0.97 and 1.10. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.73 based on a stock price of $67.00. This ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap. This testing is done in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.13. The current P/B Ratio is 0.83 based on a Book Value of $13,373M, Book Value per Share of $59.12 and a stock price of $49.12. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is done in US$.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate. The 10 year median P/B Ratio is 1.13. With the Book Value per Share estimate of $63.90, I get a ratio of 0.77 based on a stock price of $49.12 and a Book Value of $14,454M. The current ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is done in US$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.07. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.63 based on a stock price of $49.12, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $7.41 and a Cash Flow of $1,676M. The current is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is done in US$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.87%. The current dividend yield is 3.09% based on dividends of $1.52 and a stock price of $49.12. The current dividend yield is 65% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is done in US$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.17%. The current dividend yield is 3.09% based on dividends of $1.52 and a stock price of $49.12. The current dividend yield is 43% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is done in US$.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.93. The current P/S Ratio is 1.04 based on a stock price of $49.12, Revenue estimate for 2022 of $10,737M and Revenue per Share of $47.46. The current ratio is 46% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap. This testing is done in US$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. I did most of the testing in US$ because it trades most often in US$ as TAP. The dividend yield tests say the stock price is cheap and this is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Other tests say it is reasonable or cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (1), Hold (13) and Underperform (4). The consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $55.05 US$. This implies a total return 15.17% with 12.07% from capital gains and 3.09% from dividends based on a current stock price of $49.12 US$.

There is only one comment for 2022 on Stock Chase. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 star out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense List. Travis Hoium on Motley Fool talks about why this stock fell in August 2022. It is not good news. Tony Dong on Motley Fool talks about why he thinks this stock is not a buy. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter results. The company put out a Press Release on their results for the second quarter of 2022.

Simply Wall Street reviews this stock on Yahoo Finance. They do not care much for this stock either. They give out two warnings signs of has a high level of debt; and unstable dividend track record.

Molson Coors Canada is a large global brewer and distributor of beer and other malt beverages. Its two segments are the Americas and EMEA and APAC segments. Americas segment operates in the U.S., Canada, and various countries in the Caribbean, Latin and South America and EMEA and APAC segment operates in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Montenegro, the Republic of Ireland, Romania, Serbia, the U.K., various other European countries, and certain countries within the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. Its breweries are located across the U.S., Canada, and Europe, with most the company's revenue generated in Americas. Its web site is here Molson Coors Canada.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Pason Systems Inc (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Brookfield Asset Management Inc (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM) ... learn more on Friday, October 21, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about 5 Ways Your Mind Sabotages Your Spending .... learn more on Thursday, October 20, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Pason Systems Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. Dividends recently have gone up 60%. The stock price is probably reasonable. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are expected to be good in 2021 after some were rather high in 2021. Debt Ratios are very good and this will see a small company through the tough times. See my spreadsheet on Pason Systems Inc .

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably reasonable. I do not think that it is cheap. It has gone up by 46% last year and another 17% this year. It is small and rather risky, but may be fun and a good way to invest in the oil and gas industry. It has very good debt ratios which will help this company in tough times.

I do not own this stock of Pason Systems Inc (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF). I read a report on this stock in the Buy and Sell Advisor in September 2013. I had not heard of this dividend growth company before so I decided to investigate it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed EPS is much higher than expected. It was expected to come in at $0.28 at 250% higher than in 2020, but it came in at $0.41 at 413% higher. They have increased their dividends by 60% this year after two years of declining dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, for $1,008.00 you would have bought 84 shares at $12.00 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $488.88 in dividends. The stock would be worth $20,001.59. Your total return would have been $1,458.24.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$12.00	$1,008.00	84	10	$488.88	$969.36	$1,458.24

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth restarted. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.38%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 3.58%, 3.49% and 2.44%. Dividends have had their ups and downs. The last dividend increase was for 60% and it was in 2022. However, dividends are down by 21.7% per year over the past 5 years. Of my 17 years of data, dividends were increased 12 times and decreased 3 times.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are expected to be good in 2021 after some were rather high in 2021. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 49% with 5 year coverage at 130%. However, the DPR for 2022 is expected to be 33% with 5 year coverage at 86%. This company also provides Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The DPR for FFO for 2021 is 24% with 5 year coverage at 59%. The DPR for Cash Flows per Share for 2021 is 23% with 5 year coverage at 54%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2021 is 75% with 5 year coverage at 77%. The DPR for FCF is expected to be 29% in 2022 with 5 year coverage at 63%.

Debt Ratios are very good and this will see a small company through the tough times. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is good and very low at 0.03. The Liquidity Ratio is very good and high at 5.33. The Debt Ratio is good and high at 5.27. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.22 and 0.23.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	-21.71%	-6.66%	-10.09%	3.43%
2011	10	-5.44%	4.57%	-0.39%	4.96%
2006	15	4.73%	2.73%	-0.92%	3.65%
2001	20	8.78%	13.88%	8.45%	5.43%
1996	25		18.77%	13.07%	5.70%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 22.59, 26.82 and 33.62. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 21.30, 26.79 and 32.28. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.85, 19.90 and 25.63. The current P/E Ratio is 13.73 based on a stock price of $13.46 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $0.98. This ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The company provides Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median P/FFO are 10.45, 12.94 and 16.17. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.12, 12.92 and 15.56. The current P/FFO Ratio is 12.02 based on a stock price of $13.46 and last 12 months FFO of $1.12. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $9.50. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.94, 2.70 and 3.16. The current ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $13.46. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.96. The current P/B Ratio is 3.29 based on a stock price of $13.46, Book Value of $336M and Book Value per Share of $4.09. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.34. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.68 based on a stock price of $13.46 and Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) estimate for 2022 of $1.39. The current ratio is 27% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.44%. The current dividend yield is 2.38% based on dividends of $0.32 and a stock price of $13.46. The current dividend yield is 2.6% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.49%. The current dividend yield is 2.38% based on dividends of $0.32 and a stock price of $13.46. The current dividend yield is 32% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.94. The current P/S Ratio 3.42 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $323, Revenue per Share of $3.93 and a stock price of $13.46. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The P/S Ratio testing says it is relatively cheap. However, the dividend yield testing says it is reasonable to expensive. The problem with the dividend yield testing is that dividends have both gone up and down. Other testing says it is either cheap or reasonable. See comments also below. It is rather had to peg down there the current price is, but the stock price is currently going up. It connected to the oil and gas industries.

Another way of looking at my data is to see what the P/E, P/S and Beginning Yields were for total returns in the past. From this it looks like the current P/E Ratio might be ok, but the current P/S Ratio is rather high. I still cannot judge the dividend yield because dividends have changed a lot in the past.

# Years	Total Ret	Beg P/E	Beg P/S	Beg Yield
5	-6.66%	-40.92	10.36	3.46%
10	4.57%	11.54	2.95	2.92%
15	2.73%	16.37	4.34	0.75%
20	13.88%	10.36	2.52
23	19.02%	10.43	1.99
current		13.73	3.42	2.38%

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3), Hold (1) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $19.67. This implies a total return of 48.51% with 46.14% from capital gains and 2.38% from Dividends based on a stock price of $13.46.

The only entry on Stock Chase for 2022 is a Buy recommendation. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is, of course, not on the Money Sense list as dividends are not dependable. Karen Thomas on Motley Fool thinks the stock is attractive from a valuation point of view. Vishesh Raisinghani on Motley Fool says this stock is an outperforming niche stock. The company has a press release on Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2021. The company has a press release on Newswire about their second quarter of 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance looks at this stock. They list one risk of unstable dividend track record.

Pason Systems Inc is an oilfield specialist with fully integrated drilling data solutions. A host of products allow customers to collect, manage, report, and analyze drilling data for performance optimization and cost control. The company operates in three geographic segments: Canada, the United States, and International (Latin America, Offshore, the Eastern Hemisphere, and the Middle East). Its web site is here Pason Systems Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was EQB Inc (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP) ... learn more on Wednesday, October 19, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Tontines .... learn more on Tuesday, October 18, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.