Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is cheap. It serves the oil and gas industries. Things are looking up for this stock. Analyst expect it will do much better over the next few years. However, this is a high risk stock.
I do not own this stock of Trican Well Service Ltd (TSX-TCW, OTC-TOLWF). I was following Canyon Services Group Inc. and Trican Well Services Ltd. had a plan of arrangement with Canyon Shareholders. I used to get a newsletter weekly from MPL Communications called Advice Hotline. They wrote up this stock on July 19, 2012 and I was impressed with it so I did a spreadsheet. I have adjusted the account figures as necessary due to the plan of arrangement.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed things have started to look up for this stock in 2021. Revenue increased in 2021 after 3 years of declining revenue. They earned a profit in 2021 after three years of earning losses. I am following Canyon Services Group Inc into Trican Well Services Ltd and shareholders that from Canyon Services seems to have only had losses since the amalgamation of these companies.
If you had invested in this company in December 2011, for $1,005.21 you would have bought 143 shares at $7.03 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $180.64 in dividends. The stock would be worth $396.11. Your total return would have been $576.75.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7.03 | $1,005.21 | 143 | 10 | $180.64 | $396.11 | $576.75 |
The dividends were cut in 2017, so there is no yield to state and there is no Dividend Payout Ratios.
Debt Ratios are good. In 2020, the company paid off their long term debt and this is good. Therefore, the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.00. The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 2.34. The Debt Ratio is also very good at 6.53. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are good at 1.18 and 0.18.
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2021 and following Canyon Services Group into Trican Well Service Ltd. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 5 | 0.00% | -7.70% | -7.70% | 0.00% |
| 2011 | 10 | 0.00% | -6.68% | -8.89% | 2.22% |
| 2006 | 15 | 2.80% | -0.33% | 3.13% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and therefore useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are negative and useless. The corresponding historical ratios are negative and useless. The current P/E Ratio is 12.22, based a stock price of $3.30 and EPS for 2022 of $0.27. This is a reasonable ratio.
I get a Graham Price of $3.47. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.66, 1.15 and 1.38. The current P/GP ratio is 0.95 based on a stock price of $3.50. This ratio is between the low and the median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.28. The current P/B Ratio is 1.67 based on a Book Value of $489M, Book Value per Share of $1.98 and a stock price of 3.30. The current ratio is 31% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
There is also a Book Value per Share estimate. Here the P/B Ratio is 1.57 based on a stock price of $3.30, Book Value per Share of $2.10 and Book Value of $518.6M. This ratio is 23% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.88. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.13 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $0.67, Cash Flow of $165.5M and a stock price of $3.30. The current P/CF Ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I cannot do a dividend yield test as dividends have been suspended.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.37. The current P/S Ratio is 0.93 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $880M, Revenue per Share of $3.56 and a stock price of $3.30. The current ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The P/S Ratio test says this as does the P/CF Ratio test. The P/B Ratio test tends to be a trailing indicator. The P/E Ratio at 12.22 is a reasonable ratio.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (6) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $5.55. This implies a total return of 68.18%, all from capital gains and based on a current stock price of $3.30
There are no comments after 2021 on Stock Chase . Most old comments say Do not Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 star out of 5. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this is an excellent stock for value investors. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks this stock could go to $10.00. The company put out a press release on Newsfile about their fourth quarter of 2021 results. The company put out a press release on Newsfile about their second quarter results for 2022. Simply Wall Street reports about this company on Yahoo Finance. They have no warning signs posted.
Trican Well Service Ltd is an equipment services company. It provides products, equipment, services, and technology for use in the drilling, completion, stimulation, and reworking of oil and gas wells primarily through its continuing pressure pumping operations in Canada. The company offers services related to coiled tubing, pipeline service, cementing, fracturing and reservoir solutions. Its web site is here Trican Well Service Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Wajax Corp (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Great-West Lifeco Inc (TSX-GWO, OTC-GWLIF) ... learn more on Wednesday, September 21, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Ron Henderson Substack .... learn more on Tuesday, September 22, 2022 around 5 pm.
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