Russel Metals Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. Stock Price is reasonable. I would like to see improvement in Dividend Payout Ratios and analysts expect this to happen. They have good Debt Ratios. See my spreadsheet on Russel Metals Inc.

I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth List. In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I have not done very well with this stock earning a total return of 4.71% with a capital loss of 0.97% and dividends of 5.68%. This is after holding this stock for almost 14 years. However, this is not surprising considering the business this company is in. This stock also has very good debt ratios. Good debt ratios help a company survive a long time in adverse conditions.

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.13%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also good at 6.98%, 5.75% and 5.11%. The dividends have been flat since 2015. It has been a very long slow recovery since the last recession of 2008. The company prior to 2015 was a dividend growth stock company, but none consistent. The dividends have gone up 11 times and down 4 times in the past 30 years that I have data.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) needs to improve. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 390% with 5 year coverage at 95%. This DPR is expected to go to 86% this year. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 61% with 5 year coverage at 43%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 27% with 5 year coverage at 71%.

Debt Ratios are very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2020 is 0.21. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 3.55. The Debt Ratio is 2.18. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 1.85 and 0.85.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.00%	15.54%	7.18%	8.36%
2010	10	4.28%	6.19%	-0.07%	6.27%
2005	15	2.83%	6.78%	0.26%	6.51%
2000	20	7.27%	26.52%	10.84%	15.68%
1995	25	11.93%	14.81%	7.53%	7.28%
1990	30	5.02%	8.87%	4.44%	4.42%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.55, 17.70 and 20.17. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.39, 15.90 and 18.41. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.92, 10.17 and 14.71. The current P/E Ratio is 14.00 based on a stock price of $24.78 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $1.77. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $23.51. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.95, 1.13 and 1.38. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.05 based on a stock price of $24.78. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.83. The current P/B Ratio is 1.79 based on a Book Value of $864M, Book Value per share of $13.88, and a stock price of $24.78. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.68. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.79 based on a stock price of $24.78, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $2.82, and Cash Flow of $176M. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.11%. The current dividend yield is 6.13% based on dividends of $1.52 and a stock price of $24.78. The current dividend yield is 20% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.75%. The current dividend yield is 6.13% based on dividends of $1.52 and a stock price of $24.78. The current dividend yield is 6.7% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.51. The current P/S Ratio is 0.50 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $3,110M, Revenue per Share of $49.92 and a stock price of $24.78. The current ratio is 3% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. All the test are saying this including the dividend yield tests where dividends are not currently increasing. The dividend yield tests showing a reasonable stock price is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is reasonable. I own this stock and I will continue to hold it. It bought it for diversification and that reason has not changed. I still have faith in this company for the long term. It would seem I bought this stock at the wrong time. The 15 year duration for total return is low, as it is for the 10 year duration. Other durations had better total return.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (5) and Hold (2) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $26.86. this implies a total return of 14.53% with 8.39% from capital gains and 6.13% from dividends.

Analysts are positive about this stock on Stock Chase. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks Commodity prices have built momentum in the face of a global recovery. Russel Metals is a stock he recommends. The executive summary at Simply Wall Street lists 4 risks, but stock gets 4 stars out of 5. Hqzuj12 on Stockhouse gives a report on what Vector Vest says about this company. It is undervalued.

Russel Metals Inc is a Canada-based metal distribution company. The company conducts business primarily through three metals distribution segments: metals service centers; energy products; and steel distributors. The company generates all of its revenue from the North American market. Its web site is here Russel Metals Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... learn more on Monday, March 1, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

ARC Resources Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Resource. The stock price is relatively cheap. The company does not have a variable record for dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratios are expected to improved. See my spreadsheet on ARC Resources Ltd.

I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that with dividend information going back some 24 years, this company has raised the dividend 7 times and decreased it 8 times. It has been flat for 9 years. This stock used to be an income trust and as such, it could afford higher dividends. Even since changing to a corporation, dividends have been going down and they have decreased by 90%. There were big decreases in 2009, 2016 and 2020.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.96%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 4.38% and 4.70%. The historical median dividend yield is high (above 6%) at 8.99%. It is high because the stock used to be an income trust. As discussed above, the dividends went down a lot between 2009 and 2020 (some 90%).

The current dividend is expected to be flat for the next couple of years. It is interesting that shareholders who have been in this stock for 20 and plus years have made money, but all in dividends only. The dividend payments changed from monthly to quarterly. They went from $0.02 monthly to $0.06 quarterly. (There was no dividend increase in 2020 as yearly dividend is still at $0.24. Some people have reported a dividend increase, but dividends only went from monthly payments to quarterly payments.)

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are improving. The DPR for EPS for 2020 cannot be calculated because of an EPS loss in 2020. Analysts expect the DPR for EPS for 2021 to be 30% and future years to go lower. The 5 year coverage is 428%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 13% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 32% with 5 year coverage at 430%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.26. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 0.44, but if you add in cash flow after dividends it is 1.99. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 2.29. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 1.78 and 0.78.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	-27.52%	-13.74%	-18.51%	4.78%
2010	10	-14.87%	-7.35%	-13.44%	6.09%
2005	15	-13.15%	-0.86%	-9.43%	8.57%
2000	20	-10.08%	15.11%	-3.16%	18.27%
1996	24	-7.65%	12.18%	-3.12%	15.31%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.62, 16.78 and 20.94. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.65, 21.78 and 26.90. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.14, 12.37 and 14.47. The current P/E Ratio is 10.15 based on a stock price of $8.12 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $0.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $11.92. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.32, 1.62 and 1.87. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.68 based on a stock price of $8.12. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.01. The current P/B Ratio is 1.03 based on a stock price of $8.12, Book Value of $2,791M and a Book Value per Share of $7.90. The current ratio is 49% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.85. The current P/CF Ratio is 2.79 based on a stock price of $8.12, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $2.91 and Cash Flow of $1,028.3M. The current ratio is 68% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.99%. The current dividend yield is 2.96% based on a stock price of $8.12 and dividends of $0.24. The current dividend yield is 67% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem is that dividends have been cut by over 90% since 2008.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.70%. The current dividend yield is 2.96% based on a stock price of $8.12 and dividends of $0.24. The current dividend yield is 37% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem is that dividends have been cut by 80% over the past 10 years.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.84. The current P/S Ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price of $8.12, Revenue estimate for 2021 of $2,825M and Revenue per Share of $7.99. The current ratio is 79% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. We cannot use the dividend yield test because of dividend cuts. The P/S Ratio test says the stock price is cheap as do all the other tests except for the dividend yield tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock seems to be cheap, but it is not surprising as it is an energy company. This is not a dividend growth company, so I am not interested in it. Also, I do not buy or have much investment in resources. They are too volatile. However, over the short term I would believe that people could earn a very good return on this stock as energy is expected to recover and that is probably true.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (8) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $10.72. This implies a total return of 34.98% with 32.03% from capital gains and 2.96% from dividends.

The last two analysts on Stock Chase gave this stock a Buy and Do Not Buy recommendation. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street give this one risk item and 4 stars out of 5. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insiders’ trading. Eric Nuttall discusses Arc Resources on BNN.

ARC Resources is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of conventional oil and natural gas in Western Canada. The company produces light, medium, and heavy crude, condensate, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Its web site is here ARC Resources Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF) ... learn more on Friday, February 26, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Algonquin Power and Utilities.... learn more on Thursday, February 25, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Choice Properties REIT

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying REIT. The stock price is probably reasonable. DPR Ratios are fine, but I think the Debt Ratio could be improved. From my link section, see Simon Thompson on YouTube discuss this REIT and other CDN REITs. See my spreadsheet on Choice Properties REIT.

I own this stock of Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF). I got this stock when CDN REIT was acquired by Choice Properties. Choice was originally a spin off from Loblaws. Later George Weston Limited (TSX-WN) in a reorganization received Loblaw’s share of Choice (61.6% interest) and Loblaws minority shareholders got George Weston Limited shares. The Weston Family owns a majority share in George Weston Ltd and George Weston Limited has a controlling interest in Loblaws.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done well with this stock since I received it. My total return is 9.04% with 3.05% from capital gains and 5.48% from dividends.

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.79%. The 5,7 and historical dividend yields are also good at 5.66%, 5.71% and 5.71%. This stock has only been in existence for 7 years. The dividend increases have been low (below 8%) at 2.63% per year for the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2018 with an increase of 4.2%. Dividends have been flat since.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 116% with 5 year coverage at 271%. Because this is a REIT, I also am looking at the DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) and for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The DPR for FFO for 2020 is 80% with 5 year coverage at 72%. The DPR for AFFO for 2020 is 92.5% with 5 year coverage at 87%. The DPR for CFPS is 35% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 92% with 5 year coverage at 79%.

Debt Ratios could be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.69. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.20. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.29, but is higher than it has been before. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 4.45 and 3.45. I prefer these to be under 3.00 and under 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 7 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	2.63%	7.89%	1.97%	5.92%
2013	7	1.87%	9.19%	3.08%	6.11%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.08, 11.08 and 12.08. The corresponding 7 year and historical ratios are 11.60, 12.46 and 13.35. The current P/E Ratio is 20.05 based on a stock price of 12.77 and EPS of last 12 months of $0.64. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive because the current P/E Ratio of 20.05 is above the high median P/E Ratio of 7 years.

Because this is a REIT, I will also look at Price/Funds from Operations (FFO) Ratios. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/FFO Ratios are 11.54, 12.94 and 14.65. The corresponding 7 year ratios are 11.40, 12.81 and 13.99. The current P/FFO Ratio is 13.30 based on a stock price of $12.77 and FFO estimate for 2021 of $0.96. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Because this is a REIT, I will also look at Price/Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) Ratios. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/AFFO Ratios are 13.54, 15.46 and 17.28. The corresponding 7 year ratios are 13.66, 15.39 and 16.78. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 14.85 based on a stock price of $12.77 and AFFO estimate for 2021 of $0.86. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $13.85. The 7 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.88 and 0.96. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92 based on a stock price of $12.77. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 7 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.26. The current P/B Ratio is 1.44 based on a stock price of $12.77, Book Value of $3,513.8M and a Book Value per Share of $8.88. The current ratio is 14% above the 7 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 7 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.55. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.14 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $621M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.57 and a stock price of $12.77. The current ratio is 129% above the 7 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 7 year and historical median dividend yield of 5.71%. The current dividend yield is 5.79% based on dividend of $0.74. The current dividend yield is 1.5% above the 7 year and historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 7 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.94. The current P/S Ratio is 6.82 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $1,353M. The current ratio is 1.7% below the 7 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The Dividend Yield test and the P/S Ratio test both show that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. It is below the median by under 2%. The P/E Ratio is high, but for REITs, analysts like using the FFO and AFFO values and these tests show the stock price is reasonable. For the P/CF test, I only have the last 12 months data, so I wonder how valid the test is.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price does seem reasonable. This a rather new REIT as it has only been in business for 7 years and it is growing. I own it because it bought out the CDN REIT I owned. I have no intentions of selling this at the present time.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (7). The consensus would be a hold. The 12 month stock price is $13.81. This implies a total return of $13.94% with 8.34% from capital gains and 5.79% from dividends. TD Securities says that give it a Hold because of its current valuation in relation to its peers.

The last two analysts’ entries on Stock Chase are Buy and Do not Buy. Nikhil Kumar on Motley Fool call this the best Real Estate value stock in Canada. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and 4 risks. However, this is an American site and often interpret dividends paid in CDN$ as unstable dividends. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes the high ROE until you consider that this comes also with a high debt. Simon Thompson on YouTube discuss this REIT and other CDN REITs. It has a starting ad, and the discussion on this stock starts around 3.25 minutes into the video.

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust invests in, manages, and develops retail and commercial properties across Canada. The company's portfolio primarily consists of shopping centers anchored by supermarkets and stand-alone supermarkets. The properties are mostly located in Ontario and Quebec, followed by Alberta, Nova Scotia, British Columbia, and New Brunswick. Its web site is here Choice Properties REIT.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... learn more.. The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 24, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Top 100 dividend stocks of 2021.... learn more on Tuesday, February 23, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Manulife Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Stock price is reasonable and may even be cheap. A nice dividend with good payout ratios. See my spreadsheet on Manulife Financial Corp.

I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). This company was demutualized in 1999 and it turned into a dividend growth stock. I bought this company for the first time in 2005. Analysts liked it and it was a dividend growth stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have not done well with this stock. My total return is 2.18% with 2.84% from dividends and a capital loss of 0.66%. Even though the current dividend yield is 4.50%, I am making on my original investment in 2005 dividends yielding that is lower at 3.91%. However, all Life Insurance companies have done poorly because of ultra-low interest rates. I expect, on a long term basis I will do fine with this stock. However, things like low interest rates can go on longer than you can ever imagine. I was aware of this when I decided to keep this stock even though I knew it would have problems because of low interest rates.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The dividend yield on this stock is currently moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.50%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 3.79%, 3.67% and 3.05%. The dividend growth for the last 5 years is moderates (8% to 14% ranges) at 10.5% per year. The last dividend increase was for 12% and it was done in 2020.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS is 38% with 5 year coverage at 44%. The DPR for CFPS is 11% with 5 yar coverage at 10%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is 7% with 5 year coverage at 8%. (It is unusual that the DPR for FCF is better than for CFPS.)

Debt Ratios are fine. Since this is an financial, I am looking at the ratio of Debt/Covering Assets which for 2020 is 1.00. I would prefer this to be under 1.00. The Liquidity Ratio is generally not important for financials, but I calculate it to be fine at 1.42. The Debt Ratio is 1.06 and anything of 1.04 or higher is fine for financials.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	10.49%	6.01%	1.78%	4.23%
2010	10	7.97%	6.49%	2.82%	3.67%
2005	15	4.48%	-0.04%	-2.70%	2.66%
2000	20	8.73%	2.60%	-0.18%	2.78%
1999	21	8.55%	8.68%	4.37%	4.32%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.94, 9.81 and 11.68. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.32, 12.76 and 14.42. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.22, 13.86 and 16.27. The current P/E Ratio is 8.18 based on a stock price of $24.88 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $3.04. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $41.44. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.63, 0.78 and 0.91. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.55 based on a stock price of $24.88. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.10. The current P/B Ratio is 0.99 based on a stock price of $24.88, Book Value of $48,713M and a Book Value per Share of $25.11. The current ratio is 10% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.49. The current P/CF Ratio is 2.41 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $20,048M, Cash Flow per Share of $10.33 and a stock price of $24.88. The current ratio is 3% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.05%. The current Dividend Yield is 4.50% based on dividends of $1.12 and a stock price of $24.88. The current dividend yield is 48% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.67%. The current Dividend Yield is 4.50% based on dividends of $1.12 and a stock price of $24.88. The current dividend yield is 23% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.74. The current P/S Ratio is 0.76 based on a stock price of $24.88, Revenue estimate for $2021 of $63,709M and Revenue per Share of $32.84. The current P/S Ratio is 2% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I wondered about the Revenue estimates because the estimate for 2021 is 19% below the Revenue for 2020. However, I checked with a Reuters report and they said the same thing with a mean Revenue for 2021 of $64.1B. The high was 73.6B and the low was 54.5B. The Revenue for 2020 was 78,908M and just below the Revenue for 2019. Analyst expect the revenue to grow in 2022 but to just $67,241M.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and maybe cheap. Both dividend yield tests say this stock price is cheap. The dividends were cut in 2010 and it was not until 2017 that dividends were higher than in 2009. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test says the stock price is reasonable. It is revenue that in the longer term, drives earnings and cash flow (and dividends). Except for the Cash Flow test, the rest of the test says the stock is relatively cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that the stock price is reasonable. Even though I have not made much money with this company, I do expect to still in the longer term. It is a dividend growth stock and I think a good company. I currently intend to hold on to the shares that I have.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (4) and Hold (7). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $27.17. This implies a total return of 13.71%, with 9.20% from capital gains and 4.50% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase like this stock and the site gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool thinks this stock is cheap, very cheap. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and complains about the debt level and they are right to do so. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes this stock because of rising earnings and lower payout ratios. The Blogger Dividend Earner has recently written about this stock. Pramod Kumar talks about this stock on his site Rise Analytics. Robin Haney on talks about this stock on YouTube.

Manulife provides life insurance and wealth management products and services to individuals and group customers in Canada, the United States, and Asia. Its web site is here Manulife Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF) ... learn more on Monday, February 22, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Intact Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Insurance. The stock price might be reasonable. The company has done well for shareholders over time. It has good Dividend Payout Ratios. See my spreadsheet on Intact Financial Corp.

I do not own this stock of Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF). I am following this stock because in November 2011, the TD Bank put out a special report on the merits of dividend investing. At the end of the report, they listed a number of Canadian stocks as Equity Yield ideas. This was one stock listed that I did not follow. This and Wajax are from TD Report on dividend investing.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed although this is a general insurance company, they have produced solid returns for its shareholders. General insurance company’s earnings tend to be more volatile than other insurance companies, like life insurance companies.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.31%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 2.55%, 2.59% and 2.64%. The current dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.4% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 9.2% and it was done in 2020.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 46% with 5 year coverage at 52%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 27% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is 22% with 5 year coverage at 35%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.62. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.46. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is 2.02. The Debt Ratio is a little low at 1.38 and I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 3.66 and 2.66. However, the Debt Ratio, Leverage Ratio and Debt/Equity Ratio have been consistent over time.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	9.39%	13.73%	11.19%	2.54%
2010	10	9.34%	14.16%	11.48%	2.68%
2005	15	11.48%	9.57%	7.46%	2.11%
2004	16	10.25%	13.47%	10.78%	2.70%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.25, 20.96 and 22.58. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.96, 17.94 and 20.35. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.06, 17.19 and 18.46. The current P/E Ratio is 18.15 based on a stock price of $143.91 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $7.93. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $103.31. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.17, 1.31 and 1.42. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.39 based on a stock price of $143.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.07. The current P/B Ratio is 2.41 based on a Book Value of $8,555M, Book Value per Share of $58.92 and a stock price of $143.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.11. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.75 based on last 12 months of cash flow of $2,352M, Cash Flow per Share of $12.15 and a stock price of $143.91. The current ratio is 33% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, cash flow has been volatile and it was up some 82% in 2020. You have to wonder how sustainable it is at this level.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.59%. The current dividend yield is 2.31% based on dividends of $3.32 and a stock price of $143.91. The current dividend yield is 11% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.64%. The current dividend yield is 2.31% based on dividends of $3.32 and a stock price of $143.91. The current dividend yield is 13% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.53. The current P/S Ratio is 1.28 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $16,113M, Revenue per Share of $112.66 and a stock price of $143.91. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Analyst expect Revenues to climb 43% in 2021 and another 29% in 2022. This is probably as a result of them buying Canada, UK, and international operations of London's RSA Insurance Group PLC. However, they only expect EPS to rise 10% in 2021 and another 13% in 2022. So, I do wonder about the Revenue estimates.

With past estimate, in June 2019 analysts expect Revenue of $10,130M in 2019 and Revenue came in at 10,275M. In February 2020, analysts expected Revenue to come in at $11,600M in 2020 and Revenue came in at $11,241. So, analysts have not been far off in the past.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Both the Dividend Yield tests say that the stock is reasonable but above the median. For the P/S Ratio test, the result was that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. However, a number of the tests show the stock price as reasonable, but above median. You have to wonder about it being a bit on the expensive side.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price could be reasonable. I know that the stock price I am using is rather low but the stock price has been volatile lately and I use the one posted when I am writing. However, for the dividend yield tests to show the stock as expensive, the price would have to be at least at $159.00.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4) and Buy (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $180.60. This implies a total return of 27.80% with 25.50% from capital gains and 2.31% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase like this stock. Vineet Kulkarni on Motley Fool says this company’s consistent dividend growth since 2005 make it attractive. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives it 4 stars out of 5 and one risk factor. A writer onSimply Wall Street talks about the earnings not growing at all, which is untrue. This is a general insurance company, so EPS will fluctuate. However, EPS is growing slower than Revenue. The Blogger Dividend Earner has recently reviewed this stock.

Intact Financial Corp is a property and casualty insurance company that provides written premiums in Canada. The company distributes insurance under the Intact Insurance brand through a network of brokers and a wholly owned subsidiary, BrokerLink, and directly to consumers through belairdirect. Its web site is here Intact Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... learn more on Friday, February 19, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Beardstown Ladies.... learn more on Thursday, February 18, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. The stock price seems reasonable. There is current insider buying. The Liquidity Ratio needs to be improved. Revenue per Share is not growing. See my spreadsheet on Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.

I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed in 2015 were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that although there is net insider selling in the past year, insiders have been buying since the low in March 2020. I also noticed that although Revenue is going up nicely, Revenue per share is not. Revenue for the past 5 and 10 years is up by 8.9% and 11.8%, but Revenue per share is down by 1.1% and up by just 0.06%. This is not sustainable.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.60%. The 5 and 10 median dividend yields are also moderate at 3.68% and 4.05%. The historical dividend yield is higher at a good level (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.19%. The dividend increases are low (less than 8% per year) with the dividend increases for the past 5 years at 2.43% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2021 and it was for 2.55%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 41% with 5 year coverage at 34%. Since this is a REIT, we need to look also at the DPRs for Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The DPR for FFO for 2020 is 72% with 5 year coverage at71%. The DPR for AFFO for 2020 is 83% with 5 year coverage at 87%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 50% with 5 year coverage at 54%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 58% with 5 year coverage at 63%.

Debt Ratios are fine except for the Liquidity Ratio and it is a problem. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.56. The Liquidity Ratio is too low. For 2020 it is 0.36. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends and the add back the current portion of the long term debt, it is only 92. Current assets cannot coverage current liabilities. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is fine at 1.92. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.32 and 0.32.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	2.43%	8.32%	3.68%	4.64%
2010	10	2.23%	11.22%	5.79%	5.42%
2005	15	2.30%	11.47%	5.50%	5.97%
2003	17	4.15%	13.48%	6.56%	6.92%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.76, 8.77 and 9.88. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.85, 9.01 and 9.98. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.10, 11.23 and 13.76. The current ratio is 26.23 based on stock price of $36.99 and ESP estimate for 2021 of $1.41. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This EPS estimate says that the EPS is expected to drop by 65% this year. You have to wonder about this.

Because it is a REIT, I am also looking Funds from Operations (FFO). The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/FFO are 15.67, 19.56 and 20.94. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.24, 16.74 and 18.71. The current P/FFO Ratio is 15.67 based on a stock price of $36.99 and FFO estimate for 2021 of $2.36. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Because it is a REIT, I am also looking Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO are 20.99, 23.67 and 26.57. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.80, 20.98 and 23.25. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 18.50 based on a stock price of $36.99 and AFFO estimate for 2021 of $2.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $39.24. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.55, 0.64 and 0.71. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.94 based on a stock price of $39.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Since the Graham Price calculation uses the EPS estimate for 2021, you have to wonder about this test also.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.05. The current P/B Ratio is 0.76 based on a stock price of $39.66, Book Value of $6,177M and a Book Value per share of $48.54. The current ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 17.11. The current P/CF Ratio is 13.21 based on last 12 month Cash Flow of $356M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.80 and a stock price of $39.66. The current ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.19%. The current dividend yield is 4.60% based on dividends of $1.70 and a stock price of $36.99. The current dividend yield is 11% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.05%. The current dividend yield is 4.60% based on dividends of $1.70 and a stock price of $36.99. The current dividend yield is 14% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.78. The current P/S Ratio is 7.97 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $591M, Revenue per Share of $4.64 and a stock price of $39.66. The current ratio is 2% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. I say this because of the 10 year median dividend yield test and the P/S Ratio. The P/S Ratio test has the difference between the 10 year median ratio and the current ratio only at 2%. A number of the other tests point to a reasonable stock price.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think the stock price is probably reasonable. REITs and any real estate companies are beaten up at the moment, but at some point, we will get past the current crisis and these companies should do better. This company has done well for shareholders in the past and I am sure that it will recover and do fine in the future.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (7) and Hold (2). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $45.23. This implies a total return of 26.87%, with 22.28% from capital gains and 4.60% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase said don’t buy in November, but in December one analyst thought the time to buy had come. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks that this dividend growth REIT can do well in 2021. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and lists 4 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider buying and selling. Michael Emory, president and CEO of Allied Properties on BNN talks about the future of work. I have talked to people who are working from home and they are getting very tired of it. So, he might be right about people coming back to the office.

Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust engaged in the development, management, and ownership of primarily urban office environments across Canada's major cities. Most of the total square footage in the company's real estate portfolio is located in Toronto and Montreal. Its web site is here Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 17, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Working Capital.... learn more on Tuesday, February 16, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Richelieu Hardware Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price seems to be on the expensive side. The dividend is also below 1% currently, so that is very low. The company has quite good Dividend Payout Ratios and Debt Ratios. Shareholders have done well over the long term. See my spreadsheet on Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). This company is a dividend paying stock on the Investment Reporter stock list. In 2009, I bought this stock for my trading account and I still have it in this account.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I had done very well in this stock. My total return to date is 18.8% with 17.3% from capital gains and 1.5% from dividends. On my original investment I am getting a dividend yield of 4.57%. When I bought this, the dividend yield was at 1.74%.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at just 0.72%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also low at 0.80%, 1.02% and 1.10%. Strictly speaking, dividend increases for the past 5 years is just 0.01% per year. However, because of the uncertainty of the pandemic, the company missed one dividend payment in 2020. If that payment had been made, the dividend growth for the past 5 years would have been 5.93% per year (and also be higher for the other durations).

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 13% with 5 year coverage at 19%. If they had made four payments of dividends in 2020, the DPR for EPS for 2020 would have been 18% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 9% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 8% with 5 year coverage at 19%. (Until very recently, the sites I looked at agreed on the FCF.)

Debt Ratios are very good. They acquired a long term debt in 2020, but it is so small I do not have a ratio (i.e., ratio is 0.00.) They have had long term debt at different times in the past, but none amounted to much. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is very good at 3.60 as is the Debt Ratio at 3.56. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.39 and 0.39, respectively

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.01%	8.74%	7.87%	2.88%
2010	10	5.25%	13.66%	12.49%	2.15%
2005	15	7.60%	11.04%	10.01%	2.53%
2000	20	9.89%	15.69%	14.27%	2.21%
1995	25		17.84%	16.47%	2.21%
1993	27		16.33%	15.22%	2.21%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.44, 22.71 and 26.39. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.53, 19.82 and 23.11. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.09.15.80 and 19.20. The current P/E Ratio is 23.48 based a stock price of $38.98 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $1.66. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $19.19. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.34, 1.64 and 1.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.03 based on a stock price of $38.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.11. The current P/B Ratio is 3.68 based on a Book Value of $551M, Book Value per Share of $9.86 and a stock price of $38.89. The current P/B Ratio is 27% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 18.87. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.95 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $145.7M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.61 and a stock price of $38.98. The current ratio is 21% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, this should be treated with caution as Cash Flow is up a lot over the past two years and higher than it has been historically. This means that P/CF Ratios are lower than they have been also.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.10%. The current dividend yield is $0.72 based on dividends of $0.25 and a stock price of $38.89. The current dividend yield is 35% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.02%. The current dividend yield is $0.72 based on dividends of $0.25 and a stock price of $38.89. The current dividend yield is 29% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.50. The current P/S Ratio is 1.75 based on a stock price of $38.89, Revenue estimate for 2021 of $1,247M and Revenue per Share of $22.31. The current ratio is 16% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. The dividend yield tests show this, but the P/S Ratio testing is showing that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. Other tests, except for the P/CF Test is showing the stock price as relatively expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? First, I own shares in this company and I have no intention of selling them. I think it is a good company and it is a dividend growth company. The problem is that at the moment the stock price is on the expensive side.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Hold (2) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $38.25. This implies a Total Return loss of 1.15% with a capital loss of 1.87% and dividends of $0.72%.

The most recent entry says this company is their top picks on Stock Chase. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool is still bullish on this stock. Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and list no risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes companies where the debt is not a risk, like this company. Stephen Takacsy discusses Richelieu Hardware discuss the company on BNN. He thinks it is a well-managed company but currently too expensive.

Richelieu Hardware Ltd is a Canada-based company that imports, manufactures, and distributes specialty hardware and complementary products. Headquartered in Montreal, the company operates across Canada and the eastern and midwestern regions of the United States. The majority of the company's sales are derived from its operations in Canada. Its web site is here Richelieu Hardware Ltd. https://simplywall.st/stocks/ca/capital-goods/tsx-rch/richelieu-hardware-shares

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF) ... learn more on Monday, February 15, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian National Railway

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The Stock price is reasonable to expensive. Analysts think there will be a slowdown in this company in the near future. Both the Dividend Paying Ratios and Debt Ratios are good. See my spreadsheet on Canadian National Railway.

I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed is that estimates for 2021 and 2022 are lower than they were last year. For example, for Revenue for 2021 and 2022 the estimates given last year were $16,548M and $17,403M. This year the estimates for Revenue for 2021 and 2022 are $14,7118M and $15,775M. The estimates for EPS for 2021 and 2022 given last year were $6.87 and $7.56. This year the estimates for EPS for 2021 and 2022 last year estimates are $5.92 and $6.66.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.82%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.86%, 1.76% and 1.60%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 13% per year. The last dividend increase was lower at just 7%. This dividend increase was made in 2021.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 46% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 28% with 5 year coverage at 24%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 50% with 5 year coverage at 52%. (Sites seem to agree on FCF.)

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.12 and this is good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 0.95, but if you add in cash flow after dividends, it is quite good at 2.33. The Debt Ratio is also good at 1.78. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also fine at 2.28 and 1.28.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	12.97%	14.49%	12.59%	1.90%
2010	10	15.59%	17.50%	15.48%	2.02%
2005	15	15.95%	14.37%	12.70%	1.67%
2000	20	16.08%	17.83%	15.84%	1.99%
1996	24	15.90%	17.28%	15.41%	1.87%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.51, 17.83 and 20.15. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.90, 17.56 and 19.98. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.16, 13.69 and 15.61. The current P/E Ratio is 22.88 based on a stock price of $135.42, and EPS estimate for 2021 of $5.92. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $60.20. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.52, 1.81 and 2.03. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.23 based on a stock price of $135.42. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.24. The current P/B Ratio is 4.89 based on a stock price of $135.42, Book Value of $19,651M, and Book Value per Share of $27.67. The current ratio is 16% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.33. The current P/CF Ratio is 15.34 based on a stock price of $135.42, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $8.83 and Cash Flow of $6,272M. The current ratio is 24% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.60%. The current dividend yield is 1.82% based stock price of $135.42 and dividends of $2.46. The current dividend yield is 14% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.76%. The current dividend yield is 1.82% based stock price of $135.42 and dividends of $2.46. The current dividend yield is 3% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.23. The current P/S Ratio is 6.54 based on Revenue estimate of $14,711M, Revenue per Share of $20.71 and a stock price of $135.42. The current ratio is 25% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable to expensive. The dividend test say it is reasonable. Dividends and especially recent increases reflect the company’s management view of the future. They increased their dividends in 2021, but at a lower level than in 2019 and last 5 year increases per year. The P/S Ratio test does not confirm this and says that the stock price is expensive which is also the result of the other tests except the P/B Ratio test.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like this company and I plan to continue to hold it. It is a dividend growth stock, which is what I like. However, the current stock price might be on the expensive side, but it is not far into the expensive territory. The current P/S Ratio is 24% above the 10 year ratio and the cut off to expensive is 20%.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (5), Hold (21), Underperform (1), and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold, but as you can see the recommendations are all over the place. The 12 month stock price consensus is $143.31. This implies a total return of 7.64% with 5.83% from capital gains and 1.82% from dividends.

Analysts thinks it is a buy on Stock Chase, but one also sees it as expensive. Stock Chase gave this stock 5 stars out of 5. Bill Gates just sold a part of his stake in this company according to Joey Frenette on Motley Fool. However, he does not see that in a negative light and still thinks you should buy this stock. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and gives it one risk item. A writer on Simply Wall Street is disappointed in recent lack of earnings growth, but says analysts expect this to change. Scott Rubin reviews this stock on You Tube.

Canadian National's railway spans Canada from coast to coast and extends through Chicago to the Gulf of Mexico. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more on Friday, February 12, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Toromont and Finning.... learn more on Thursday, February 11, 2021 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Murdered Midas by Charlotte Gray learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Pacific Railway

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price seems to be expensive. Earnings and cash flow is growing a lot quicker than revenue. Good dividend growth, but very low current dividend yield. I have been reviewing this stock around October each year, but it is hard at the beginning of the year to find stocks reporting when they have a year-end of December. See my spreadsheet on Canadian National Railway.

I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP). I am following this stock because it is a dividend growth stock. It is one that was on Mike Higgs' list. It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999 so I am following it. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and chose CN as my railway stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed a lot of green for EPS and Cash Flow, but blue for Revenue. Revenue is a lot lower in growth than either EPS or Cash Flow. Take Revenue for the past 5 years which has grown at just 2.81% per year and Revenue per Share which has grown at 5.68% per year per year. (Number of shares outstanding is decreasing so Revenue per Share is higher than Revenue growth.

If you look at EPS for the last 5 years, EPS has growth at 16.43% per year. Cash Flow has grown at 7.97% per year and Cash Flow per Share has grown at 10.99% per year. The same problems are seen also for growth over the past 10 years. This cannot go on, either they will have to grow their Revenue or EPS and Cash Flow will stop growing. I colour code growth and other values so that problems will be easily seen. I use purple for growth under 3%, blue when growth is 3% to 7%, and green when growth is 8% and over.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The dividend yields are low (under 2%). The current dividend yield is 0.84%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 0.97%, 0.99% and 1.53%. Dividend growth is good (15% and above) at 19.70% per year for the past 5 years. The last increase was in 2020 and it was for 14.5%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 19% with 5 year coverage at 17%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2020 is 14% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 41% with 5 year coverage at 33%. Also, the sites I looked at seem to agree on FCF.

Debt Ratios are fine if not quite what I like to see but they have not changed their range for a long time. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.15. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 0.50. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it rises to 1.38. I prefer to see this at 1.50 or higher. If you add back the Long Term due this year, the ratio is 2.50. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 1.45. This is also a bit low as I would like it to be 1.50 or higher. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 3.23 and 2.23. I would prefer these to be below 3.00 and below 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	19.70%	72.43%	69.35%	3.08%
2010	10	12.76%	22.38%	21.17%	1.21%
2005	15	12.57%	16.93%	15.83%	1.10%
2000	20	12.00%	17.47%	16.18%	1.30%
1995	25	12.53%	16.64%	15.35%	1.29%
1990	30	6.94%	14.75%	13.60%	1.15%
1988	32	7.50%	13.69%	12.50%	1.19%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.10, 16.78 and 19.46. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.29, 19.09 and 22.89. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.11, 14.58 and 15.65. The current P/E Ratio 22.39 based on a stock price of $454.47 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $20.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $158.36. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.69, 2.03 and 2.39. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.87 based on a stock price of $454.47. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.44. The current P/B Ratio is 8.28 based on a Book Value of $7,319M, Book Value per Share of $54.91, and a stock price of $454.47. The current P/B Ratio is 52% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.09. The current ratio is 17.15 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $26.50, Cash Flow of $3,532M and a stock price of $454.47. The current ratio is 31% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.53%. The current dividend yield is 0.84% based on dividends of $3.80 and a stock price of $454.47. The current dividend yield is 45% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.99%. The current dividend yield is 0.84% based on dividends of $3.80 and a stock price of $454.47. The current dividend yield is 15% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.62. The current P/S Ratio is 7.25 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $4,358M, Revenue per Share of $62.70 and a stock price of $445.47. The current ratio is 57% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The two dividend yield tests show this stock is expensive and above the median. The P/S Ratio test shows this stock as expensive. Also, some of the ratios are really high. This applies to the P/B Ratio where the 10 year ratio is really high at 5.44, let alone the current one. The P/GP Ratios are also very high.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that the company is currently expensive. However, it is a good company that has provided good results for shareholder and this is true especially lately. It is a dividend growth company, which is what I like. However, the current yield is under 1.00% and I do not buy companies with dividends below 1% no matter how good the growth.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (10), Buy (9), Hold (10) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $470.65. This implies a total return of 4.40% with 0.84% from dividends and 3.56% from capital gains. There is a disconnect between the recommendations and the 12 month stock price. It is a problem that analysts suggest buys of stocks after they have a run up in price.

Analysts on Stock Chase say this stock is a buy. They give it 4 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this is a great investment for growing wealth in your TFSA. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street give this stock 3 stars out of 5 and list 2 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the revenue for this company is likely to be higher than the wider industry. Sven Carlin on YouTube gives analysis of different railway stocks in North America.

Canadian Pacific is a $7.3 billion CDN$ railroad operating on 12,500 miles of track across most of Canada and into parts of the Midwestern and Northeastern United States. It is the second-smallest Class I railroad by revenue and route miles. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 10, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Banks and Ratios 3.... learn more on Tuesday, February 09, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.