I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed in 2015 were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the number of shares is increasing fast with growth of 10.4% and 12.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue is up by8% per year over past 5 years, but revenue per share is down by 2.13% per year. Earnings is up by 21% per year over the past 5 year as is AFFO and FFO.
The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% range) at 3.09%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividends are 4.05%, 4.20% and 5.67%. the historical yield is in the good range (5% and 6% ranges) where most REITs are. The dividend growth is low (under 8%.)
The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. Dividend Payout Ratio for 2019 for EPS is 29% with 5 year coverage at 34%. The DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) for 2019 is 71% with 5 year coverage also at 71%. The DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) for 2019 is 83% with 5 year coverage also at 87%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 64% with 5 year coverage at 56%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 75% with 5 year coverage at 64%. The Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 1.33 with a 5 year ratio at 1.56.
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio in 2019 is low and good at 0.33. I get a Liquidity Ratio of 1.24 for 2019. This is too low, but Liquidity Ratios are not important for REITs. I get a Debt Ratio of 3.21 for 2019 and this is high and good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.45 and 0.45.
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 5 | 2.51% | 10.43% | 6.82% | 3.61% |
| 2009 | 10 | 1.92% | 15.45% | 10.41% | 5.04% |
| 2004 | 15 | 2.90% | 15.23% | 9.26% | 5.98% |
| 2003 | 16 | 4.21% | 15.26% | 9.14% | 6.12% |
The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.76, 8.77 and 9.88. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.98, 9.01 and 9.98. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.45, 11.03 and 12.60. The current P/E Ratio is 13.63 based on a stock price of $53.42 and 2020 EPS estimate of $3.92. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/FFO are 15.67, 17.75 and 19.83. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.24, 16.73 and 18.35. The current P/FFO Ratio is 22.64 based on a stock price of $53.42 and 2020 FFO estimate of $2.36. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO are 20.99, 23.67 and 25.35. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.80, 20.06 and 22.68. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 26.32 based on a stock price of $53.42 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.03. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $49.72. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 0.90 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.07 based on a stock price of $53.42. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.06. The current P/B Ratio is 1.15 based on a stock price of $53.42, Book Value of $5,717M and Book Value per Share of $46.55. The current ratio is 8.5% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.67%. The current dividend yield is 3.09% based on the current dividend of $1.65 and a stock price of $53.42. The current yield is 46% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.20. The current dividend yield is 3.09% based on the current dividend of $1.65 and a stock price of $53.42. The current yield is 26% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.62. The current P/S Ratio is 11.31 based on 2020 estimate of $380M, Revenue per Share of $4.72 and a stock price of $53.42. The current ratio is 49% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. Most of the testing is showing the stock price as expensive except for the P/B Ratio. I like the P/S Ratio testing the best, but there are no problems with any of the tests.
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that this is a good REIT, however, it still seems to be relatively expensive at the moment.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (7) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $59.13. this implies a total return of 13.78% based on a stock price of $53.42 with 10.69% from capital gains and 3.09% from dividends. A problem is a recent big drop in this stock’s price and the market as a whole.
See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Analysts seem to like this stock, but say its price is reasonable, but not cheap. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says buying this REIT gives you a low risk access to Canadian Real Estate. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider trading. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes this company but thinks it is overvalued. A writer on Small Cap Power talks about 4 Canadian REITs with the lowest debt ratios.
Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust engaged in the development, management, and ownership of primarily urban office environments across Canada's major cities. Most of the total square footage in the company's real estate portfolio is located in Toronto and Montreal. Its web site is here Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.
The last stock I wrote about was about was RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 11, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Shopify.... learn more on Tuesday, March 10, 2020 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
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