Chesswood Group Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Finance. The stock price seems reasonable. This is a small company into specialty finance, so it is risky. It has good debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Chesswood Group Ltd .

I do not own this stock of Chesswood Group Ltd (TSX-CHW, OTC-CHWWF). A reader wrote me in 2012 that he was researching and found a company that he hoped I could give him a brief outlook on. He said that the company is Chesswood Group and they are basically a financial leasing company. From 2009 to 2012 they increased their dividends from 2.5 cents to 5.5 cents per month. This is a 120% increase.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed insiders have stopped selling shares, but in the past year there was no buying either. The company has a mixed history. It used to be an income trust. When it converted to a corporation, they did a 100 to 1 consolidation. They have stopped increasing their dividends which points the fact that management is not optimistic about the near future.

Dividend yield go very high in the past topping out over 56%. They are still quite high with a current yield of 7.75%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 7.18%, 7.68% and 8.22%. In the past dividends have both increased and decreased. Currently they are flat.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 61% with 5 year coverage at 65%. EPS is expected to drop this year and the DPR for EPS for 2019 is expected to be 102% with 5 year coverage at 67%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 15% with 5 year coverage at 20%.

Debt Ratios are fine for this sort of company. Since this company is in the financial services, I do not compare the long term debt to the market cap, but look at the Financial Receivables compared to Long Term Debt. That ratio is fine at 0.83 for 2018. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.34 with 5 year median at 1.70. The Debt Ratio is 1.25 with a 5 year median at 1.38. Debt Ratios for financial service sector companies are lower than the other non-financial sector companies. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 5.00 and 4.00 with 5 year medians at 3.19 ad 2.19.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 12 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	3.27%	-5.02%	-11.14%	6.11%
2008	10	4.21%	42.97%	21.35%	21.62%
2006	12	0.00%	11.55%	2.99%	8.57%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.43, 9.36 and 10.55. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.74, 9.38 and 11.60. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.43, 9.36 and 11.29. The current P/E Ratio is 13.22 based on a stock price of $10.84 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.82. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $12.87. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.61, 0.75 and 0.87. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.84 based on a stock price of $10.84. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.32. The current P/B Ratio is 1.21 based on a Book Value of $146M, Book Value per Share of $8.98 and a stock price of $10.84. The current ratio is 8.7% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.22%. The current dividend yield is 7.75% based on dividends of $0.84 and a stock price of $10.84. The current yield is 5.7% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 7.68%. The current dividend yield at 7.75% is 0.9% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.44. The current P/S Ratio is 1.39 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $127M, Revenue per Share of $7.82 and a stock price of $10.84. The current ratio is 3.4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The best test is the P/S Ratio test and this shows the stock price to be reasonable and below the median. The problem with the dividend yield test is that the company used to be an income trust and these companies have much higher dividend yields than other companies. However, the test with the 10 year median dividend yield shows the same results as the P/S Ratio. The P/B Ratio test shows the same results also.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably reasonable. This is a small company into specialty finance, so it is risky. However, after two years of slightly declining stock prices, the stock price has gone up this year by 4%, so this is positive. A dividend increase would be nice. If you can afford to take the risk, this is a small company in which you might make some money.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find a Buy (1) recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $11.50. This implies a total return of $13.84% with 6.09% from capital gains and 7.75% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Analysts like the management but think they will be problems in the future. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool says the company is one of the best high yielding financial companies. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks there are potentially better dividend companies to investment in. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about who owns shares in this company. Institutions hold only around 6%. Alice Vandehei on Slater Sentinel says researchers at Cormark has lowered EPS estimates for 2020.

Chesswood Group Ltd is a financial services company operating primarily in the specialty finance industry. They own Pawnee Leasing Corporation, located in Fort Collins, Colorado and Blue Chip Leasing Corporation and NorthStar Leasing Corporation located in Canada. Its web site is here Chesswood Group Ltd .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Quarterhill Inc (TSX-QTRH, NASDAQ-QTRH) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Northland Power Inc (TSX-NPI, OTC-NPIFF) ... learn more on December 2, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Quarterhill Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. This stock used to be classified Telecom Services. The stock price is cheap to reasonable. It is a very risky small cap. They do have very good debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Quarterhill Inc .

I do not own this stock of Quarterhill Inc (TSX-QTRH, NASDAQ-QTRH). I am still following stock because I once owned it. I held it from 2000 to 2006 and basically lost all my investment. It was called Wi-Lan (TSX-WIN, NASDAQ-WILN) at that time.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there relatively a lot of insider buying. However, both the CEO and CFO has recently step down. They seem to have a new CFO according to INK, but their site does not say this. But there is an announcement of the CFO leaving here. According to a Newswire the CEO has left and they are looking for a replacement.

Dividend yields have been all over the place, with low, moderate, good, and high yields. The high is almost 16% and low was 0.74%. The current yield is moderate at 2.76%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yield are all also moderate at 4.57%, 2.53% and 2.53%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are mostly noncalculable due to EPS losses and negative CF. I cannot calculate the DPR for 2018 for either EPS or CFPS. I also cannot calculate the 5 year coverage for EPS. The 5 year coverage for CFPS is 30%. You cannot calculate DPRs when you have earnings losses and negative CF. The DPR for Free Cash Flow cannot be calculated except for the 5 year coverage and that is 26%. A lot of the FCF is negative.

Debt Ratios are very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.00 (as debt very low). The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 3.39 with a 5 year median at 3.39. The Debt Ratio is very good at 7.30 with a 5 year median at 6.23. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.16 and 0.16 with 5 year ratios at 1.18 and 0.18.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2018 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below. Dividends are paid in CDN$.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	-20.25%	-12.50%	-17.83%	5.33%
2008	10	8.01%	8.78%	0.54%	8.24%
2003	15		-4.42%	-7.76%	3.34%
1998	20		2.75%	-0.60%	3.35%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2018 in US$.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	-24.12%	-17.09%	-21.73%	4.64%
2008	10	4.91%	7.05%	-1.49%	8.54%
2003	15		-3.69%	-7.47%	3.77%
2001	17		-1.88%	-5.48%	3.60%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.75, 21.68 and 31.61. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 4.81, 8.36 and 10.72. The corresponding historical ratios are all negative at 3.47, 9.27 and 17.82. The current P/E Ratio is 27.24 based on a stock price of $1.81 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.05. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $1.86. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.69, 1.06 and 1.45. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.97 based on a stock price of $1.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.34. The current P/B Ratio is 0.79 based on stock price of $1.38, Book Value of $207M, Book Value per Share of $1.74. The current ratio is some 41% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You get similar results in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.53%. The current dividend yield is 2.76% based on dividends of $0.05 and a stock price of $1.81. The current dividend is 9.2% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in CDN$. Dividends are paid in CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.42. The current P/S Ratio is 1.21 based on a stock price of $1.38, 2019 Revenue estimate of $135M and Revenue per Share of $1.14. The current ratio is 76% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You get similar results in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap to reasonable. Most of the stock price testing is fine. In regards to the P/E Ratio testing and the P/E Ratios are all over the place and not good to use to test the stock price. I also wonder about the Dividend Yield Test as dividends have declined a lot lately.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably cheap to reasonable. This company has had a very checkered past and has shifted what it does for a living and now says it is going into the Internet of Things. It is into the latest tech talk with the Internet of Things. It is a small cap and extremely risky. It has not made much money for its shareholders in the past. I would not currently be interested in this stock.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $1.38 US$. This is the current US$ price of this stock. So, any gain would be just the dividend of 2.76%.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase . They mostly like it because it is the Internet of Things. Will Ashworth on Motley Fool thinks this is a small cap with watching. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about ownership and shows most is owned by the General Public. A writer on CNW Group talks about a litigation by Quarterhill. The company announces on .

Quarterhill Inc is engaged in acquiring technology companies working in the internet of things. Some of the companies acquired are Willan which develops and commercializes patented technologies, international road dynamics which is a provider of intelligent transportation systems, and VIZIYA which is a software service provider. Its segment consists of Technology, Mobility, Factory, and Corporate. Its web site is here Quarterhill Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Finning International Inc (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Chesswood Group Ltd (TSX-CHW, OTC-CHWWF) ... learn more on Friday, November 29, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2019 – John Schwinghamer.... learn more on Thursday, November 28, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Finning International Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Stock price is relatively cheap. A lower than usual dividend increase does point to lower expectations in the near future by management. However, there is some insider buying. It is wise to be a good stock when it is beaten down a bit. See my spreadsheet on Finning International Inc.

I do not own this stock of Finning International Inc (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF). When I was in the market to buy an industrial stock in this area in 2007, I look at this stock was well as Toromont Industries (TSX-TIH). At the time I liked Toromont better, so that is what I bought.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that although dividend increases have varied over the years, the last increase was low at 2.5% which is at the low end of their yearly increases. The yearly increases over the past 5 years was at 5.74% per year. Also, both Revenue and EPS came in lower than expected. Expected Revenue was $7,053M and expected EPS was $1.62. Revenue came in at $6,996 and EPS at $1.38.

The dividend yield is low (under 2%) to moderate (2% to 4% range). The current yield is 3.41% with 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields at 2.75%, 2.57% and 1.69%. Dividend yields were low until about 2008. Dividend growth has varied over time as you can see from the chart below. They are currently at the low range with growth for the past 5 years at 5.74% per year and the last dividend increase for 2019 at 2.50%

The Dividend Payout Ratios are higher than what I would like to see. This is probably the reason for the lower dividend increase in 2019. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 57% with 5 year coverage at 93%. The DPR for CFPS is 20% with 5 year coverage at 19%. Because of a negative Free Cash Flow for 2018, the DPR for FCF cannot be calculated for 2018. The 5 year coverage is at 111%.

Debt Ratios are fine but lower than they have been in the last 5 years. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.35. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 1.97 with 5 year median ratio at 2.53. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.59 with 5 year median at 1.63. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 2.70 and 1.70 with 5 year median ratios at 2.60 and 1.60.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	5.74%	0.25%	-2.60%	2.85%
2008	10	6.27%	8.67%	5.26%	3.40%
2003	15	10.36%	5.71%	3.13%	2.59%
1998	20	10.89%	10.70%	7.62%	3.08%
1993	25	12.14%	9.22%	6.66%	2.56%
1988	30	7.93%	10.30%	7.56%	2.73%
1987	31	8.67%	10.80%	7.91%	2.90%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.37, 20.79 and 24.66. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.47, 15.89 and 19.23. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.50, 1616 and 19.77. The current P/E Ratio is 14.66 based on a stock price of $24.05 and 2019 EPS estimate of $1.64. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $21.79. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.13, 1.47 and 1.74. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.10 based on a stock price of $24.05. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.28. The current P/B Ratio is 1.87 based on a stock price of $24.05, Book Value of $2,102M and Book Value per Share of 12.87. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.69%. The current dividend yield is 3.41% based on dividends of $0.82 and a stock price of $ 24.05. The current dividend is 102% above the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.57%. With the current dividend yield at 3.41%, it is some 33% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.67. The current P/S Ratio is 0.53 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $7,393M, Revenue per Share of $45.27 and a stock price of $24.05. The current ratio is 21% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The best tests are the P/S Ratio test and the Dividend Yield tests which show the stock price is relatively cheap. For the P/S Ratio test, the ratio is just below the cheap line. The P/B Ratio test is close the cheap line.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think the price is certainly reasonable if not cheap. The basic reason that I have not bought this stock is that I own Toromont and this company is also into selling heavy-duty machinery.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (4) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $27.80. This implies a total return of 19.00% with 15.59% from capital gains and 3.41% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They it is affected by the global slowdown. Chen Liu on Motley Fool thinks this stock is currently a buy. A writer on Simply Wall Street says do not buy as they are buying out more in dividends than their FCF. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the company is slowing down. Steve Fairfield on Slater Sentinel says the Nation Bank Financial has up the target price for this stock.

Finning International Inc is a dealer and distributor of heavy-duty machinery and parts of the Caterpillar brand. The company sells and rents Caterpillar machinery to the mining, construction, petroleum, forestry, and power system application industries. Its web site is here Finning International Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX-CPG, NYSE-CPG) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Quarterhill Inc (TSX-QTRH, NASDAQ-QTRH) ... learn more on Wednesday, November 27, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2019 – Ziad Jasani.... learn more on Tuesday, November 26, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Crescent Point Energy Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Resource. There is some insider buying but very little. They have a heavy debt load and I do not care for some debt ratios. Dividends are going down. See my spreadsheet on Crescent Point Energy Corp.

I do not own this stock of Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX-CPG, NYSE-CPG). I got this idea to look into this stock from another blogger, My Own Advisor and his November 2012 blog entry on great Canadian dividend paying stocks. I also noticed that several people at the Toronto Money Show of 2013 mentioned this stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the expected loss was $0.29 a share, but came in at a loss of $4.77. Last year analysts’ consensus was for a profit in 2019 of $0.88. After the heavier loss in 2018, another loss is expected this year at $0.19. There have been earnings losses since 2015.

The company was an income trust from 2003 to 2009. As an income trust it paid dividends and yields where high (over 16%). When they became a corporation, they kept the dividends flat until 2015 when they started to decrease the dividends. Dividends were decreased until 2017 and then decreased again in 2019.

The current dividend is low (under 2%) at 0.76%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% range) to good (5%). The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 4.65%, 6.80% and 7.98%, respectively.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are not satisfactory. Neither the current DPR for EPS nor the 5 year coverage for EPS can be calculated because of earning losses. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 12% with 5 year coverage at 35%. This has fluctuated a lot over time. The DPR for Free Cash Flow cannot be calculated because of negative FCF. The 5 year coverage of FCF is 386%.

Debt Ratios are good except for the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio and this is far too high. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 1.83 but going down to 1.16 currently. The decrease is due to higher market cap and lower debt. A ratio of above 1.00 means that the market does not value the company equal to its long term debt and this is not good. The Liquidity Ratio is quite low at 0.85. If you added in cash flow after dividends it is 3.10 and this is good.

The Debt Ratio is good at 2.08 with 5 year median at 2.35. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.93 and 0.93 with 5 year medians at 1.56 and 0.56.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	-33.46%	-31.18%	-36.86%	5.68%
2008	10	-17.88%	0.11%	-16.15%	16.26%
2003	15	-4.15%	16.00%	-7.46%	23.46%
2001	17		37.60%	0.87%	36.72%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative at 6.95, 9.89 and 12.71. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.66, 6.67 and 4.69. The corresponding historical median ratios are 7.27, 11.27 and 11.48. The current P/E Ratio is a negative 40.69 based on a stock price of $5.29 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.13 loss.

You cannot do P/E Ratio testing with negative ratios. The 10 year ratios are useless because of EPS losses. The P/E Ratio for 2020 is 27.84 based on a stock price of $5.29 and 2020 EPS estimate of $0.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $7.05. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.48, 1.82 and 2.25. The current P/GP ratio is 0.75 based on a stock price of $5.29. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, the Graham Price is an estimate because of all the EPS losses.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.37. The current P/B Ratio is 0.89 based on a Book Value of $6,388M, Book Value per Share of $11.61 and a stock price of $5.29. The current ratio is some 67% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, note that the Book Value per Share has fallen 11% per year over the past 5 years.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.98%. The current dividend yield is 0.76% based on dividends of $0.04 and a stock price of $5.29. The current yield is 90% below the historical ones. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, this company used to be an income trust so had high yields in the past. Also, the company has been cutting dividends for the last few years.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.80%. The current yield at 0.76% is some 89% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.20. The current P/S Ratio is 0.88 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $3,312M, Revenue per Share of $6.02 and a stock price of $5.29. The current ratio is some 79% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The best test is the P/S Ratio test. It is also the only one I do not have a complaint about.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I would not personally buy this company. Not only is it a resource stock, but I do not like some of the debt ratio and the earnings losses. Dividends are going in the wrong direction. It seems to be cheap, but it seems also to be cheap for a reason.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (6) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $7.27. This implies a total return of 38.19% with 0.76% from dividends and 37.43% from capital gains.

However, last year the consensus was a Buy and the 12 month stock price consensus was $11.58. This implied a total return of 173.85% with 165.60% from capital gains and 8.26% from dividends. However, the total return last year was a loss of 48.52% with a capital loss of 56.78% and 8.26% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Analysts are saying that they are divesting assets and paying down debt. Matt Smith on Motley Fool thinks it is a good time to buy. A writer on Simply Wall Street would like to see the company can grow before investing. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the company would need to improve its operations for him to be interested. Josh Young on Seeking Alpha thinks the recent asset sales and stock buy backs may send the stock price higher.

Crescent Point Energy is an independent exploration and production company. At the end of 2018, the company had proved reserves of 620 million barrels of oil equivalent. 2018 production was 178,000/BOE per day, weighted approximately 80% crude oil. Its web site is here Crescent Point Energy Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX-INE, OTC-INGXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Finning International Inc (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF) ... learn more on Monday, November 25, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Innergex Renewable Energy

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price is probably reasonable. I do not like any of the debt ratios. Most of the past gain is via dividends but future return will depend more on capital gains. See my spreadsheet on Innergex Renewable Energy.

I do not own this stock of Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX-INE, OTC-INGXF), but I used to. In 2006 I bought Innergex Power on a buy rating and favorable report from TD although it has only been going from 2003. In 2008 I sold Innergex as I did not think that it is a stock I want to hold as dividend increased less than the rate of inflation.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the company has beaten the Revenue and EPS estimates for 2018. I got Revenue estimate for 2018 at $554M and Revenue came in at $576.6M. I got EPS estimate for 2018 at $0.15 and EPS came in at $0.21. They have a lot of debt. The long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 was 2.42. Debt has come down but it is still very high at 1.70. If the ratio is over 1.00 it means that the Long Term Debt is higher than the market cap.

This stock used to be an income trust company so it had higher dividends in the past and is still having problems covering the dividends with EPS. The dividend yield is currently Moderate (2% to 4% ranges), but used to be good (5% and above). The current dividend is 4.13%, with 5, 10 and historical yields at 5.18%, 5.57% and 6.04%.

They started to grow dividends again in 2014, but dividend growth is low (under 8%). Dividends have grown at 3.08% per year over the past 5 years. They changed from an income trust to a corporation in 2010 and reduced the dividends by 33% and switched from monthly to quarterly dividends. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are not good for DPR or 5 year coverage. The current DPR for EPS is 321% for 2018. I cannot calculate the 5 year coverage because they had too many years of earning losses. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 23% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for FCF for 2018 is 76%. However, I cannot calculate the 5 year coverage for FCF because of the number of years with negative FCF

Debt Ratios are a problem area. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 2.42. It is better currently at 1.70 because of decrease in debt and increase in Market Cap. It is really bad when this ratio is over 1.00 because it seems that the market does not think the company worth is as high as the Long Term Debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 0.36. If you added in cash flow after dividends it is 0.54. This means that they cannot cover their current liabilities.

The Debt Ratio is 1.17 with 5 year coverage at 1.17 also. This is a very low ratio. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are very high at 6.75 and 5.75 respectively. The 5 year median is 4.20 and 2.20

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 14 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	3.08%	9.02%	3.42%	5.60%
2008	10	-0.15%	14.62%	7.12%	7.50%
2003	15	0.52%	9.37%	2.81%	6.56%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 36.32, 46.20 and 56.07. The corresponding 10 year ratios are all negative at 2.73, 2.97 and 3.20. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.66, 16.46 and 17.83. The current P/E Ratio is 154 based on a stock price of $16.74 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem with the P/E Ratio is that they rotate between large negative values and large positive values. This testing makes no sense.

I get a Graham Price of $4.19. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.74, 1.87 and 1.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 4.03 based on a stock price of $16.94. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.51. The current P/B Ratio is 2.39 based on a stock price of $16.94, Book Value of $941M, and Book Value per Share of $7.08. The current ratio is 4.6% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.04%. The current dividend yield is 4.13% based on a stock price of 16.94 and Dividends of $0.70. The current yield is 32% below the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median dividend yield is 5.57%. With the current dividend yield at 4.13%, the current yield is still relatively low. The current yield is 26% below the 10 year median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.72. The current P/S Ratio is 3.95 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $570M, Revenue per Share of $4.29 and a stock price of $16.94. The current ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The best test is the P/S Ratio test and that is showing the stock as relatively cheap. The other test that is fine in some respects is the P/B Ratio test. But it has the problem of a falling Book Value per Share which has fallen almost 5% per year over the past 5 years and 1.8% per year over the past year. The Dividend Yield test is a problem because this company used to be an income trust. Most income trust have cut dividends or kept them flat trying to get a better DPR for EPS. The P/E test has problems as noted above.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I personally would not buy this stock. It may be increasing their revenue, but it cannot make a profit. Book Value is falling. They cannot yet cover their Dividends by their EPS and they have a heavy debt load and awful debt ratios. Most of the stock price tests have problems features. This tells you some right there when most of the testing has problems. I think there are better green energy companies to invest in.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $17.25. This implies a total return of 5.96% with 1.83% from capital gains and 4.13% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase . Most say it is good because of yield and only one worried about debt. Demetris Afxentiou on Motley Fool likes it for its yield. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the CEO is paid less than others in same industry. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the company’s debt load. Zacks Equity Research on Yahoo Finance talks about the company buying wind turbines from GE.

Innergex Renewable Energy Inc is an independent Canadian renewable power producer. It develops, acquires, owns, and operates hydroelectric, wind, and solar facilities in Canada, the United States, France, and Chile. Its web site is here Innergex Renewable Energy.

The last stock I wrote about was about was PFB Corp (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX-CPG, NYSE-CPG) ... learn more on Friday, November 22, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2019 – Patrick Ceresna.... learn more on Thursday, November 21, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

PFB Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend GrowthIndustrial. Stock price is probably reasonable if a bit high. Debt Ratios are good as are DPR ratios. They have given out special dividends a number of times in the past and did one recently. See my spreadsheet on PFB Corp.

I do not own this stock of PFB Corp (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF). I am following this stock as I read a positive article on this stock in November 2009 and thought I would do a spreadsheet on it. This stock is a dividend paying small cap stock. The article said that this stock would be good for long-term gains and rising dividends. This is the thing with small cap stock; you can get a blend of capital gains and rising dividends in the long term only if the company is successful.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the company’s results are better than expected. Revenue estimate for 2018 was $122M and it came in at 128M. EPS estimate for 2018 was $0.84 and EPS came in at $0.92. They also did a special dividend of $1.00 because of good results in the third quarter. Current dividend is $0.36 per year.

The dividends are moderate (2 to 4% range) with the current dividend yield at 3.23% and with 5, 10, and historical median dividend yields at 3.30%, 3.94% and 3.09%. The dividend increases are low (Under8%). See the chart below. Dividend started in 1997.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2018 was 35% with 5 year coverage at 48%. The CPR for CFPS for 2018 was 18% with 5 year coverage also at 18%. As nearest as I can see the Free Cash Flow coverage of dividends is at 27% in 2018.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.13. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.36 with 5 year median ratio at 2.45. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 2.76 with 5 year median at 2.76 also. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 1.57 and 0.57 with 5 year median ratios at 1.54 and 0.54.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	5.92%	18.69%	14.39%	4.29%
2008	10	2.92%	17.30%	10.44%	6.86%
2003	15	5.18%	9.00%	4.30%	4.70%
1998	20	5.99%	11.59%	3.98%	7.61%
1994	24	5.70%	13.67%	6.01%	7.66%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.13, 13.06 and 15.00. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 10.68, 12.79 and 14.89. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.09, 11.43 and 14.89. The current P/E Ratio is 10.11 based on a stock price of $10.92 and 2019 EPS estimate of $1.08. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The start P/E for 5 year growth of 14.39% was 4.96, for 10 year growth of 10.44% was 32.00, for 15 year growth of 4.30% was 12.96, for 20 year growth of 3.98% was 7.77 and for 24 years of growth of 6.01% was 8.67. I do not think that this sheds any light on a good starting P/E. There seems to be no correlation between start P/E and capital gain.

I get a Graham Price of $14.71. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.65, 0.77 and 0.95. The current P/GP ratio is 0.74 based on a stock price of $10.92. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.93. The current P/B Ratio is 1.23 based on a Book Value of $59.6M, Book Value per Share of $8.90 and a stock price of $11.15. The current ratio is some 31% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.09%. The current dividend yield is 3.30% based on dividends of $0.36 and a stock price of $10.92. The current ratio is 6.7% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.94%. The current dividend yield of 3.30% is 16% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. Some people use a 10 year dividend yield rather than an historical one.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.50. The current P/S Ratio is 0.55 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $133M and a stock price of $10.92. The current ratio is 9.8% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable but on the high side. The P/S Ratio testing is showing this stock as reasonable but above median and so is the 10 year median dividend yield test. The P/B Ratio test is showing the stock price as expensive, however, a P/B Ratio of 1.23 is considered to be a low P/B Ratio.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that this company has been done well by its shareholders. Their use of special dividends show that they want to reward their shareholders, but they do want to keep the current dividends at a low percentage of the current EPS. I would certainly consider buying this company.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Buy (1). The consensus would be a strong buy, but there are few analysts following this stock. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.17. This implies a total return of 33.06% with 29.76% from capital gains and 3.30% from dividends based on a current stock price of $10.92.

There are no comments on Stock Chase for this company. This is probably because it is a small company and not well followed. A writer Simply Wall Street talks about Frank Baker selling shares, but he is no longer a director of this company. A writer Simply Wall Street says PFB P/E Ratio at 12.98 is lower than the industry it is in. Company announces on Newswire the third quarterly results and a special dividend payment.

PFB Corp is Canadian based firm which is in the business of delivering products and solutions in the areas of manufacturing insulating building products made from expanded polystyrene materials. The company is operating into two business segments based on geographical location namely, Canada where it produces expanded polystyrene (EPS) products and structural insulating panels; and United States of America segment which includes production and sales of EPS, building systems, and structures, design services, and installations. Its web site is here PFB Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was IBI Group Inc (TSX-IBG, OTC-IBIBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX-INE, OTC-INGXF) ... learn more on Wednesday, November 20, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2019 – Money Talks.... learn more on Tuesday, November 21, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

IBI Group Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Services Stock. The stock price is probably reasonable. Dividends were suspended in 2013. This s a turn-around situation. There is insider buying. See my spreadsheet on IBI Group Inc.

I do not own this stock of IBI Group Inc (TSX-IBG, OTC-IBIBF). I have had this stock on my list to investigate for some time before I finally did in 2011. What finally prompted me set up a spreadsheet on this stock was an investment report I read in March of 2011.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they were an income trust and as such had good dividends in the past. They became a corporation in 2011, but could not afford dividends after a couple of years of earning losses so they were suspended in 2014.

The 5 year growth is so good because the stock hit a low point exactly 5 years ago. After a couple of years of good gains, the stock price dropped in 2018, but so far this year it is up 25%. I noticed also that there is insider buying of 0.12% of market cap. This is high as expected buying would be at 0.01%. CEO and Chairman have been buying.

This company suspended their dividends in 2013. They have not made any statements that I can find about when they will restart them. This stock could take off when and if they restart dividends.

Debt Ratios are fine. Note that this company had a negative Book Value (and Debt Ratio below 1.00) back in 2015 and they have been building the Book Value again. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is fine at 0.55. The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 2.49 with 5 year median at 2.11. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.20 with 5 year median at 1.08. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are quite high at 5.91 and 4.91 in 2018.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 14 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.00%	37.72%	37.72%	0.00%
2008	10	0.00%	-3.11%	-9.64%	6.52%
2003	14	0.00%	4.53%	-6.55%	11.08%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.93, 11.79 and 16.65. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.09, 12.70 and 16.30. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.93, 10.11 and 14.33. The current P/E Ratio 14.92 based on a stock price of $5.82 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.39. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $3.20. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.80, 1.11 and 1.61. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.82 based on a stock price of $5.82. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.40. The current P/B Ratio is 5.00 based on a Book Value of $36M, Book Value per share 1.16 and a stock price of $5.82. The current P/B Ratio is 257% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I cannot do an historical median dividend yield test as the dividends are currently suspended.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.53. The current P/S Ratio is 0.48 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $377M, Revenue per Share of $12.07 and a stock price of $5.82. The current ratio is 8.5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The best test is the P/S Ratio test. It is showing the stock price as reasonable and below the median. The problem with the P/GP Ratio test and the P/B Ratio test is that the company had recently a negative book value.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still think that this is a company worth tracking. I only track companies I am interested in. The stock price is probably reasonable. However, the company has had some difficulties and therefore is of a high risk.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Buy (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $7.75. This implies a total return of 33.16% all from capital gains based on a stock price of $5.82.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. One analyst called it a turn-around situation. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the beta value for this stock is 1.00 which means that it is as volatile as the broader market. A message of the company posted on Yahoo talks about their investment in SWTCH. The announcement by IBI Group to suspend dividends. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the great gains the company has recently made.

IBI Group Inc is a Canada based engineering services provider. The company plans, designs, implements, as well as offer other consulting services and software development for its intelligence, buildings, and infrastructure business streams. Its web site is here IBI Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be PFB Corp (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF) ... learn more on Monday, November 18, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Johnson and Johnson

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price maybe be a bit on the expensive side. The DPR for EPS is relatively high. See my spreadsheet on Johnson and Johnson.

I do not own this stock of Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ). As Canadians, we are told we should be buying US stocks for our portfolio. It is often recommended that we have at least 25% of our portfolio in US stocks. I have never followed this, although I have tried dipping into the US market, but I have never made any money there. I bought some of this stock in June 2005 and realized a year later, in June of 2006 that it was going nowhere for me and sold. I lost almost 17% of my investment. When I bought in 2005, all the analysts were saying that it was a good buy at that time.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that EPS estimates have gone down. Last year the EPS for 2019 and 2020 were $8.37 and $8.37. Now the estimates are for these years are $6.47 and $7.41.

Dividend yield are moderate (2 to 4% range). The current dividend is 2.90% with 5, 10 and historical dividend median yields at 2.82%, 3.06% and 2.28%. The current growth in dividends is in the low range (less than 8%) current, but it has been higher in the past. See the charts below. Because this is a US stock, look at the US$ chart.

The Dividend Payout Ratios maybe a bit high for this sort of company. The DPR for 2018 for EPS is 63% with 5 year coverage at 68%. The historical median DPR for EPS is 39%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 42% with 5 year coverage at 47%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is very low at just 0.08. The Liquidity Ratio is fine at 1.50 with 5 year median at 2.17. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.64 with 5 year median at 1.99. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.56 and 1.56 with 5 year median at 2.01 and 1.01.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2018 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	11.88%	15.88%	12.56%	3.31%
2008	10	8.19%	11.98%	9.16%	2.81%
2003	15	9.75%	9.21%	6.82%	2.39%
1998	20	9.77%	7.07%	5.14%	1.93%
1993	25	11.25%	13.53%	10.37%	3.15%
1988	30	12.56%	15.51%	11.82%	3.69%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2018 in US$.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	6.45%	10.08%	7.10%	2.98%
2008	10	7.03%	11.13%	7.98%	3.14%
2003	15	9.36%	9.18%	6.44%	2.74%
1998	20	10.45%	8.07%	5.78%	2.29%
1993	25	11.14%	13.58%	10.26%	3.32%
1988	30	11.94%	14.75%	11.21%	3.54%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.56, 18.65 and 21.15. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.13, 17.72 and 19.44. The corresponding historical median ratio are 16.52, 18.65 and 21.15. The current P/E 20.28 based on a stock price of $131.22 and 2019 EPS estimate of $6.47. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $56.42. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.47, 1.64 and 1.84. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.33 based on a stock price of $131.22. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.49. The current P/B Ratio is 6.00 based on a Book Value of $58,210M, Book Value per Share of $21.86 and a stock price of $131.22. The current ratio is 72% higher than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.28%. The current dividend yield is 2.90% based on $3.75 and a stock price of $131.22. The current yield is 27% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.06%. The current dividend yield at 2.90% is 5% lower than the 10 year median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.47. The current P/S Ratio is 4.25 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $82.218M, Revenue per Share of $30.88 and a stock price of $131.22. The current ratio is 22% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably a bit on the expensive side. The best test is again the P/S Ratio test and this shows that the stock price is expensive. This test shows expensive when the current ratio is 20% or more above the 10 year median ratio. So, the stock price is not high above this level. The only test that shows the stock price is relatively cheap is the dividend yield one. The problem here is the DPR for EPS currently at 63% is relatively high compared to its historical median of 39%.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This certainly a good Dividend Growth Stock. The company has a long history of increasing their dividends. I have 30 years of data and they increased the dividend each of those years. A problem is that entry price is important and the current stock price seems a bit on the expensive side.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (4) and Hold (9). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $149.37. This implies a total return of 16.73% that includes 13.83% from capital gains and 2.90% from dividends based on a current stock price of $131.22.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Some think the law suits are a problem and others think not. Timothy Green on Motley Fool says further testing of JNJ’s baby powder showed no asbestos . Berkeley Lovelace on CNBC talks about JNJ third quarterly earnings. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that this is a good dividend stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the stock is undervalued.

Johnson & Johnson is engaged in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field. The Company operates in three segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical, and Medical Devices and Diagnostics. Its web site is here Johnson and Johnson.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be IBI Group Inc (TSX-IBG, OTC-IBIBF) ... learn more on Friday, November 15, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Frontiers North and Polar Bears.... learn more on Thursday, November 14, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Cenovus Energy Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Energy. The stock price would seem to be cheap. The management thinks the future s promising with a 25% increase in their dividends. Outstanding shares are increasing rapidly. See my spreadsheet on Cenovus Energy Inc.

I do not own this stock of Cenovus Energy Inc (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE). This is another stock that was talked about at the 2010 Money Show in Toronto. There were those who liked oil companies and they mentioned both Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU) and Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE). This company was split off from EnCana (TSX-ECA) in 2009. My spreadsheet reflects this split. I was also following Alberta Energy Co. (TSX-AEC) into EnCana.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that it has not done well for shareholders lately with cutting of dividends and drop in stock price so that shareholders that have held this stock for the past 5 and 10 years have lots. However, near the end of 2019 they have raised the dividend by 25%. This would signal that management expects the company to do better in the near future.

The other thing I noticed is that the outstanding shares have been increasing rapidly with increase of 10.2% and 5.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This greatly affects per share values. For examples, Revenue over the past 5 years is down only 2.7% per year, but Revenue per Share is down by 11.7% per year. The growth in Book Value in the past 10 years is 28%. However, Book Value per Share is down by 22% over the same period.

Talk about dividends yields and growth. This is an energy company, so the dividends have both gone up and down over the years. See the chart below. Dividend yields are Low (less than 2%) to moderate (2% to 4% ranges). The current yield is 2.06% with 5, 10 and historical yields at 1.71%, 2.66% and 1.45%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are too high for EPS, but they do have good coverage for CFPS and FCF. I cannot calculate the current DPR for EPS as the EPS is negative for 2018. However, the 5 year coverage is 128%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 18% with 5 year coverage at 20%. According to the Wall Street Journal the Free Cash Flow for 2018 is $832M with dividends at $2.45M giving a coverage of 30%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.72. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.23 for 2018 with 5 year median at 1.42. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends, the Ratio for 2018 is 1.99. The Debt Ratio is 1.99 with 5 year median at 1.92. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 2.01 and 1.01 with 5 year median at 2.22 and 1.22.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	-27.05%	-18.35%	-20.59%	2.24%
2008	10	-14.43%	-6.27%	-10.04%	3.77%
2003	15	3.16%	3.37%	-1.73%	5.09%
1998	20	5.70%	8.28%	2.88%	5.40%
1993	25	5.10%	9.78%	4.69%	5.09%
1992	26	4.90%	10.11%	5.03%	5.08%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 2.95, 4.83 and 6.71. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.19, 23.25 and 27.17. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.06, 16.17 and 19.53. The current P/E Ratios is 5.94 based on a stock price of $12.11 and 2019 EPS estimate of $2.04. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $26.38. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.17, 1.47 and 1.70. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.46 based on a stock price of $12.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.05. The current P/B Ratio is 0.80 based on a Book Value of $18,624M, Book Value per Share of $6.61 and a stock price of $12.11. The current ratio is 61% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.45%. The current dividend yield is 2.06% based on dividends of $0.25 and a stock price of $12.11. The current dividend yield is some 42% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

If we look at the 10 year median dividend yield of 2.66%, this testing is quite different. In this case the current dividend yield is 22.3% below the 10 year dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.30. The current P/S Ratio is 0.72 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $20,596M, Revenue per Share of $16.76 and a stock price of $12.11. The current ratio is 44% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The best test is the P/S Ratio test and this is showing the stock price is relatively cheap. The dividend yield test is not good because of the variability of the dividend over the years. I find no fault in the P/B Ratio nor the P/GP Ratio testing and both these show the stock price is relatively cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Well the stock price would seem to be quite cheap. As to a good company, it is in the energy business which is a very risky business. I have very little in any resource area. I generally do not think that they are good long term buys. You might be able to make money on this stock as the stock price will probably rise. Just be aware that you are taking on a risky company and industry.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (10, Hold (6) and Sell (1). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.96. This implies a total return of 25.60% with 23.53% from capital gains and 2.06% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Some think energy companies will come back. Brian Pacampara on Motley Fool thinks it’s a great opportunity to buy this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street says a fair value is $11.70 CDN$, so the current price is fair. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool says the worse for the company is over and it is currently an interesting pick. An article from Reuters on London Free Press talks about this company posting a better than expected profit.

Cenovus Energy is an integrated oil company, focused on creating value through the development of its oil sands assets. The company also engages in production of conventional crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in Alberta, Canada, with refining operations in the U.S. Its web site is here Cenovus Energy Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) ... learn more on Wednesday, November 13, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Steinberg Wealth Management .... learn more on Tuesday, November 12, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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