BCE Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth . Stock price is relative reasonable to expensive. It is above the median. Vulnerability is in high DPR for EPS and Liquidity Ratio. See my spreadsheet on BCE Inc.

I own this stock of BCE Inc (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE). This is the first stock I bought. At that time is was called an orphan and widow stock. I bought this stock in 1982 and have held it ever since. Since I bought it both Nortel and Bell Aliant were spin off. The problem with BCE's spinning off part of the company was that I ended up with an odd number of shares. It is annoying.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed Revenue is not growing very well. The Dividend Payout Ratio is growing too high. For 2018 it is 96%. Analyst do expect do expect it to come down over the next few years. I also find it ridiculous that the BCE site is not secure. Almost all the stocks I follow have secure sites and this is supposed to be a technology company.

Dividends are moderate (2% to 4% range) to good (5% or better). The current dividend is good at 5.34%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 4.73%, 5.17% and 4.63%.

The dividend growth is low except for over the past 10 years, when growth per year is 15.11%. However, that is because exactly 10 years ago, the company only paid 2 dividends because it expected to be bought out. The buyout did not happen. If not for that one year, the 10 year growth would be 7.4% per year instead.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are for EPS are currently quite high. The DPR for 2018 for EPS is 96% with 5 year coverage at 87%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is better with the 2018 ratio at 31% and 5 year coverage at 34%

Debt Ratios are fine, but there is a vulnerability in the low Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.41 and it is fine. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.56 which means the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. The 5 year median is also low at 0.57. However, if you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio is 1.14. If you add back in the current portion of the long term debt, the ratio is 2.05. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.57 with 5 year median at 1.56. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.76 and 1.76 respectively. Their 5 year median ratios are 2.78 and 1.78.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

First of all, I know that TD WebBroker has different stock prices went you go out as far as I do. I do not know why except their chart does not seem to adjust for the Nortel spinoff. When BCE did spin offs, I always ended up with odd number of shares. Other companies give even board lots, but not BCE. That was a pain. Also, the spin-off of Nortel happened almost at the top of the 2000 bull market and therefore was spun-off at a very high price.

However, I have had this stock for 31 years in Quicken and my total return is 12.71%. I have added in the spin-off of both Nortel and Bell Aliant and my sale of these spin-offs. I sold Aliant soon after the spin-off and suffered a small loss. For Nortel, I had that in two accounts. I sold it in my RRSP soon after the spin-off and at a good price. I sold the rest 2006 and at a very low price.

From	Years	Div Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div
2013	5	5.20%	8.72%	3.23%	5.49%
2008	10	15.11%	14.45%	7.94%	6.51%
2003	15	6.26%	8.98%	4.25%	4.74%
1998	20	4.66%	3.45%	0.28%	3.18%
1993	25	3.77%	8.82%	3.96%	4.85%
1988	30	3.46%	9.39%	4.05%	5.34%
1983	35	3.42%	10.13%	4.15%	5.98%
1982	36		13.35%	5.18%	8.17%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.41, 17.95 and 19.48, the corresponding 10 year median ratios are 15.67, 17.14 and 18.61. The corresponding historical median ratios are 14.12, 16.19 and 17.12. The current P/E Ratio is 17.78 based on a stock price of $59.37 and 2019 EPS estimate of $3.34. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of $37.00. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.42, 1.55 and 1.67. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.60 based on a stock price of $59.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.09. The current P/B Ratio is 3.26 based on Book Value of $30,689M, Book Value per Share of $18.21 and a stock price of $59.37. The current P/B Ratio is some 5.5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.63%. The current dividend yield is 5.34% based on dividends of $3.17 and a stock price of $59.37. The current yield is some 15% above the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.85. The current P/S Ratio is 2.23 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $23,956, Revenue per Share of $26.67 and a stock price of $59.37. The current ratio is some 20% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. But it is just within the expensive range which starts at 20%.

Results of stock price testing is stock price is probably reasonable to expensive. It is certainly above the median. I think that the P/B Ratio of 3.09 and 3.26 to be rather high ratios. Book Value is not growing well. Book Value is basically the breakup value of the company. This is the problem with the P/B Ratio test. A problem with the dividend yield test is the very high Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS. It is revenue that pushes future earnings, cash flow and dividends. It cannot be ignored. However, the P/S Ratio test shows that the price is expensive, but it is just over the line. The 12 month consensus stock price points to a current high price also.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (5), Hold (9) and Underperform (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $59.56. This implies a total return of 5.66% with 0.32% from capital gains and 5.34% from dividends based on a current stock price of $59.37.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase . They generally like this stock. This stock is a current pick for Andrew Walker on Motley Fool. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the companies P/E Ratio. The blogger Dividend Hawk talks about BCE recent dividend raise. Tyler Harlow on Z Tribune talks about recent US ratings on this stock.

BCE, through its Bell brand, is both a wireless and Internet service provider, offering wireless, broadband, television, and landline phone services in Canada. It is one of the big three national wireless carriers. Its web site is here BCE Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF) ... learn more on Monday, April 1, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

AltaGas Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Utility. The stock price is probably cheap to reasonable. They have had trouble covering their dividends with earnings. This company used to be an income trust and as such rules for covering the dividend were different. Dividends are expected to be covered by next year. They are having trouble with generating earnings. They also have a debt ratio vulnerability. See my spreadsheet on AltaGas Ltd.

I own this stock of AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF). When I bought this stock in 2009 it was on many dividend growth stock lists. In 2009, I saw that this stock also had good growth in Revenues, Earnings, Dividends, and Stock Prices over the last 5 and 10 years. The stock had a fairly strong balance sheet. I took a small position in this stock, and planned to wait and see how things go with this stock before buying more. I bought more in 2010 and 2012.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that no matter how they presented earnings, there had problems in 2018. They use AFFO, FFO and Normalized earnings. For 2018, all were negative or much lower than the previous year. There was an earnings loss of $2.25 and Normalized Earnings per Share went from $1.19 to $0.88.

Dividends have been growing since 2011 which was the last time dividends were cut. The chart below on dividend growth gives a false impression. It is to the end of 2018. However, there was another big dividend cut in 2019 of some 56%. If you do dividend growth to date the 5, 10 and 15 year periods are all of negative growth. It is only the 17 year growth that is positive and the growth is at 10.86% per year over the last 17 years.

The current dividend yield is moderate at 5.42%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate to good with yields of 6.41%, 5.69% and 6.31%, respectively.

The earnings for this company dropped in 2015 and cover their dividends with earnings increased greatly. Since then was a big earnings loss in 2018, the DPR is not calculable. The DPR for 2019 is expected to be 101% and lower again in 2020. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is very high at 148% with 5 year coverage at 68%. I prefer this to be at 40% or less.

They changed to an income trust in 2004 and increased the dividends by 221%. They change back to a corporation in 2010 and decreased the dividends by 39%. Under the income trust rules, affording dividends has different rules and earnings do not matter. As a corporation earnings need to cover the dividends. The dividends have not been covered by earnings since 2007.

Debt Ratios are a vulnerability. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is very high at 2.11. This is because of a big increase in the Long Term Debt. There was also a significant drop in Market Cap of 51%. The Liquidity Ratio is a vulnerability as it is only 0.98. It gets to 1.26 if you add back in current portion of the long term debt.

The Debt Ratio is a little low at 1.48 as I would like this to be at 1.50 or better. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 3.07 and 2.07 and are a little high. I prefer them to be below3.00 and below 2.00, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

The stock is up by 27% year to date, but this does not help 5 year total return much. The 5 year total return to date is still negative at 10.45%.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	8.01%	-11.75%	-19.36%	7.61%
2008	10	0.33%	8.97%	-2.11%	11.07%
2003	15	12.54%	11.70%	-0.64%	12.33%
1999	19	17.08%	17.71%	4.52%	13.19%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 49.9, 60.72 and 71.49. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 24.24, 28.48 and 32.71. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.02, 15.83 and 18.70. The current P/E Ratio is 18.63 based on a stock price of $17.70 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $21.04. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.33, 1.62 and 1.86. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.84 based on a stock price of $17.70. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current P/B Ratio is 0.85 based on a Book Value of $5,701M, Book Value per Share of $20.71 and a stock price of $17.70. The current ratio is some 50% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.31%. The current dividend yield is 5.42% based on a stock price of 17.70 and dividends of $0.96. The current yield is some 14% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.17. The current P/S Ratio is 1.17 based on a stock price of $17.70, Revenue estimate for 2019 of $4,47M and Revenue per Share of $16.05. The current ratio is some 46% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the price is probably cheap to reasonable. Both the P/B Ratio and the P/S Tests says that the stock price is cheap. These are good tests. The P/E Ratios are mostly ridiculous except for the historical ones. This is because of recent big earnings losses. The dividend yield test is highly affected by the recent dividend cut, but you cannot ignore this test.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy 6), Hold (8) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The stock price consensus is $19.32. This implies a total return of 14.58% with 9.15% from capital gains and 5.42% from dividends based on a stock price of $17.70.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They like the company and expect a recovery. Mat Litalien, on Motley Fool talks about the problems with ALA’s acquisition of WGL. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about high debt being dangerous in unexpected downturns. ZLZ Investing on Seeking Alpha says the company’s short comings do not warrant an investment at current price. Jimmy Cauthen on K Reviewer talks about some recent analysts recommendations on this stock.

AltaGas Ltd owns and operates a diversified basket of energy infrastructure businesses. Business is conducted through three segments: Midstream, power, and utilities. Revenue is derived from customers in both Canada and the United States, with Canadian customers contributing the most. Its web site is here AltaGas Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be BCE Inc. (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE) ... learn more on Friday, March 29, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Some Good Stocks from My Portfolio.... learn more on Thursday, March 28, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

TransCanada Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price is reasonable. Analysts do not see much upside at present. The company has vulnerability, and therefore risk, because of debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on TransCanada Corp.

I own this stock of TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP). When I bought this stock, it was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list and the other dividend lists that I followed. It had also just cut its dividends so I got it at a very good price.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that it has vulnerability in regards to Debt Ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is just 0.40. Current Assets cannot cover Current Liabilities unless this ratio is 1.00. Even adding in cash flow after dividends and adding back current portion of long term debt, this ratio is just 0.97. A good ratio is 1.50. Debt Ratio is a bit too low and Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a bit too high.

The dividend yields are moderate (2 to 4% ranges). The current dividend is 4.94%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 4.09%, 4.10% and 4.28%. The dividend increases are low (below 8%) to moderate (8 to 14%). The current increases are better than the longer term ones. There was a dividend decrease in 1999.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are for EPS for 2018 is 69% with 5 year coverage at 138%. They had an earnings loss in 2015 and very low earnings in 2016. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is good at 37% with 5 year coverage at 36%. I like the DPR for CFPS to be at 40% or less. So this DPR is good.

Debt Ratios are a vulnerability for this company. The only ratio I like is the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio which is currently at 0.66 and is the only one I like. I discussed the Liquidity Ratio above. The Debt Ratio is currently at 1.46. I prefer this to be at least at 1.50. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 3.19 and 2.19. I would prefer them to be below 3.00 and below 2.00, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

The 5 year total return is low because of the drop in this stock (and the market) at the end of last year. So far this year, the stock is up 24%. However, the 5 year total return to date is not much better at 5.42%. The stock price was relatively high 5 years ago.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	8.17%	4.71%	0.09%	4.63%
2008	10	6.47%	8.79%	3.93%	4.86%
2003	15	6.29%	8.40%	3.80%	4.61%
1998	20	4.22%	8.30%	3.87%	4.43%
1993	25	4.67%	8.10%	3.60%	4.50%
1990	28	4.99%	8.46%	3.83%	4.62%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.41, 18.12 and 18.83. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 17.80, 19.10 and 20.74. The historical corresponding ratios are 12.32, 14.04 and 16.02. The current P/E Ratio is 15.88 based on a stock price of $60.67 and 2019 EPS estimate of $3.82. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $48.72. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.23, 1.38 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.25 based on a stock price of $60.67. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.00. The current P/B Ratio is 2.20 based on a stock price of $60.67, Book Value of $25,558M and Book Value per Share of $ 27.62. The current ratio is 10% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.28%. The current dividend yield is 4.94% based on dividends of $3.00 and a stock price of $60.67. The current dividend yield is 15.5% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.63. The current P/S Ratio is 3.76% based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $14,799M, Revenue per Share of $16.12 and a stock price of $60.67. The current ratio is 6.8% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively reasonable. The best test is the dividend test. I like it because it is using current data and not estimates. You cannot ignore the P/S Ratio, as I have said before, but here the ratio is not far from the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (8), Hold (7) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The recommendations are broad, so there is a broad range of opinions on this stock. The 12 months consensus stock price is $62.32. This implies a total return of 7.66% with 2.72% from capital gain and 4.94% from dividends. Analysts do not expect much upside to this stock and this shows in Hold and Underperform ratings.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They like this company but note that it is tough to build pipelines in Canada. Karen Thomas on Motley Fool likes this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider selling. The Net Insider Selling is high at 0.06% of market cap, but this is because people are cashing in options rather than taking stock rather than selling stock. The blogger Dividend Earner has a good review of this stock. The site Market Beat shows there is a Buy consensus on this stock.

TransCanada operates as an energy infrastructure company, consisting of pipeline and power generation assets in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The company also owns or has interests in 20 power-generation facilities. Its web site is here TransCanada Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 27, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Payout Ratios.... learn more on Tuesday, March 26, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

TransAlta Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Utility. The stock price is cheap to reasonable. It seemed to hit the bottom in 2016 and has been recovering since. This recovery will probably take a while. There is some insider buying and investment firm wants board seats. See my spreadsheet on TransAlta Corp.

I own this stock of TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC). I bought this stock in 1987. It was a utility stock and utility stocks were considered to be good investments. I sold some in 2000 as the stock price was below what I had paid for it. I bought some more in February 2009 because it was relatively cheap and it seemed to be recovering. I sold more in August 2012 as this company was doing poorly again. I was wondering if I should ditch this company for good or hold for a while longer.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they are destroying shareholders’ value. I remember being at a Money Show some years back and a presenter said the company had been destroying shareholders’ value for 25 years. Now they have been doing it for 30 years. I look at my spreadsheet and all there seems to be is red.

The company used to pay a good dividend yield. It is now the lowest because of dividend cuts. The current dividend is low at just 1.76%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 5.31%, 5.39% and 5.66%. The past dividends were in a good range of 5% and over.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are very poor. They have not been able to afford their dividends since 2011. Analysts do not think that they will be able to afford their dividends until 2021. Analysts seem to tend to the optimistic and the further out the predictions the less they are reliable. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is negative and the 5 year coverage is also negative. The DPR for CFPS is good and for 2018 it is 7% with 5 year coverage at 18%. Analysts feel that the current dividend is safe.

Debt Ratios are fine except for the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is very high at 1.96. This I not a good situation. However, this ratio is heavily dependent on the stock price and this company took a hit to the stock price because of problems and is now recovering from when it hit the bottom in 2016. The investment in TransAlta Renewables is worth over $8.00 a share.

The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 1.50. The 5 year median Liquidity Ratio is low at 1.28. This is the first year Liquidity Ratio has been good. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.78 with 5 year median at 1.67. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.28 and 1.28 with 5 year median ratios at 2.74 and 1.74. These are rather typical for this sort of company.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Shareholders have not done well since 2011.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	-17.38%	-12.01%	-16.14%	4.14%
2008	10	-32.89%	-7.97%	-13.67%	5.70%
2003	15	-11.50%	0.08%	-7.68%	7.76%
1998	20	-8.71%	0.39%	-6.75%	7.14%
1993	25	-6.99%	4.94%	-3.93%	8.88%
1988	30	-5.80%	6.27%	-2.98%	9.25%
1987	31	-5.49%	6.02%	-3.00%	9.02%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are -6.47, -7.73 and -8.99. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 1.87, 3.49 and 4.78. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.85, 15.26 and 21.19. The current P/E Ratio is -445.00 based on a current stock price of $9.10 and 2019 EPS estimate of -$0.02. Because of negative earnings, no conclusion can be reached on the stock price using P/E Ratios.

I get a Graham Price of $8.16. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.01, 1.18 and 1.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.11 based on a stock price $9.10. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.53. The current P/B Ratio is 1.26 based on Book Value of $2,055, Book Value per Share of $7.23 and a stock price of $9.10. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median and close to being cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.66%. The current dividend yield is 1.76% based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $9.10. The current dividend yield is some 69% below the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.50. The current P/S Ratio is 1.16 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $2.237, Revenue per Share of $7.87 and a stock price of $9.10. The current ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Here again, you cannot ignore the P/S Ratio which says it is cheap. However, it would be much better if the revenue was growing and not declining. Both the P/GP Ratio and the P/B Ratio tests are valid. One says it is close to cheap and the other that it is below the median. The dividend yield is not a good one because of the declining dividend.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2) and Hold (8). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is 9.00. This implies a total return of 0.66% with capital loss of 1.10% and dividends of 1.76% based on a current stock price of $9.10.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase . Comments are more positive than I expected. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool thinks this is a worthwhile stock for a buy and hold portfolio. A writer on Simply Wall Street says this stock is still cheap. A Canadian Press article on CBC News Canada says a Dallas Based Investment firm wants board representation to increase the value of this company. Ash Bar on Z Tribune talks about recent analyst ratings.

TransAlta Corp is an independent power producer based in Alberta, Canada. The company owns more than 70 power plants in Canada, the Western United States, and Australia. TransAlta's net generating capacity is approximately 25% coal-fired and 25% natural gas-fired. The remaining 50% consists primarily of hydroelectric plants and wind energy farms. TransAlta also has an energy trading and marketing business and owns transmission lines. Its web site is here TransAlta Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP) ... learn more on Monday, March 25, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Enbridge Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The P/S Ratio testing says price is expensive whereas other testing says it is cheap. There are risks and vulnerabilities in this stock in connections with DPR and Liquidity Ratio. See my spreadsheet on Enbridge Inc.

I own this stock of Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB). I first bought this stock in 2005 and then bought more in 2008 and 2009. This stock was on the Dividend Achievers, the Dividend Aristocrats list and also on Mike Higgs’ list of Canadian Dividend Growth stocks. Enbridge is considered to be a low risk stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they have been paying out more in Dividends than they have received in earnings. However, the percentage of the payout is decreasing. They also give out adjusted earnings and with this, analysts expect the Dividend Payout Ratio to be under 100% in by 2021. They have continued to increase the dividends, so this points to the fact that they expect to cover the dividends in the future.

This stock has moderate to good dividend yield. The dividend yield has fluctuated over the years. The current dividend yield is good at 6%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate at 4.23%, 3.37% and 3.49%.

This stock has moderate to good dividend growth. The dividend growth has also fluctuated over the years. Currently the dividend growth is good with the 5 year growth at 16.33% per year. There was no dividend growth between 1990 and 1995 and then growth was low until 2003. See dividend growth rates per year below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. The DPR for 2018 for EPS is 184% with 5 year coverage at 164%. Some analysts are using their adjusted EPS and with this the DPR is 101% for 2018 with 5 year coverage at 69%. The DPR for CFPS is also high currently with the DPR for CFPS for 2018 at 67% with 5 year coverage at 43%. It is the 5 year coverage that really counts. For DPR for CFPS I prefer this to be at 40% or less.

Debt Ratios are ok at present. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.70. The Debt Ratio is 1.79 which is good and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.27 and 1.27 respectively. The Liquidity Ratio has some vulnerability as it is at just 0.63. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. To get this above 1.00 you have to add back the current portion of the debt and cash flow after dividends. Then the ratio is a low one of 1.26. The vulnerability comes in if debt cannot be rolled over.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	16.33%	2.85%	-1.79%	4.64%
2008	10	15.06%	12.96%	7.93%	5.04%
2003	15	13.25%	12.42%	7.96%	4.46%
1998	20	11.96%	12.50%	8.29%	4.21%
1993	25	9.96%	14.87%	9.84%	5.03%
1990	28	8.85%	10.90%	7.23%	3.67%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 25.75, 30.94 and 35.21. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 25.55, 28.47 and 32.92. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.85, 19.35 and 21.01. The current P/E Ratio is 20.33 based on a currently stock price of $49.20 and 2019 EPS estimate of $2.42. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $40.77. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.51, 1.82 and 2.13. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.21 based on a stock price of $49.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.95. The current P/B Ratio is 1.61 based on Book Value of $61,723M, Book Value per Share of $30.53 and a stock price of $49.20. The current P/B Ratio is some 45% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.19%. The current dividend yield is 6.00% based on dividends of $2.95 and a stock price of $49.20. The current yield is 72% higher than the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.45. The current P/S Ratio is 1.91 based on 2019 Revenue of $48,716, Revenue per Share of $24.09 and a stock price of $49.20. The current ratio is some 41% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is we cannot ignore the testing using P/S Ratios? This says the stock is expensive whereas others say it is cheap. The 10 year median ratios for P/E, P/B and P/GP ratios are rather high. The current P/E Ratio is a bit high, but the ratios for P/GP and P/B are not. The dividend yield test says the stock is cheap between of the relatively high yield and the yield is high. However, the DPR Ratio is over 100% at 184% and this is not good. It maybe that the price is reasonable, but there are risks.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (9) and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price is $53.19. This implies a total return of 14.11% with 8.11% from capital gains and 6.00% from dividends based on a current stock price of $49.20.

See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. They note that line 3 has been delayed, but most also like this company. Andrew Button on Motley Fool thinks this is a hot stock in recovery. A writer on Simply Wall Street says this stock is overvalue re P/E. Ratio. Melissa Arnold on GV Times says 9 out of 11 analysts rate this company as a buy. The Canadian Press says via Edmonton Journal that line 3 is being delayed.

Enbridge is an energy generation, distribution, and transportation company in the U.S. and Canada. Its pipeline network consists of the Canadian Mainline system, regional oil sands pipelines, and natural gas pipelines. Its web site is here Enbridge Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC) ... learn more on Friday, March 22, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about GARP.... learn more on Thursday, March 21,2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Melcor Developments Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Real Estate. The testing is showing the stock price is cheap to reasonable. Stock is not doing particularly well currently, but it is a western Canada Real Estate stock. See my spreadsheet on Melcor Developments Inc.

I own this stock of Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). This was one of the stocks on Mike Higgs' list of good dividend growth stocks. So, I looked into it and bought it. I bought this stock first in 2008 and then some more in 2009. It is a little followed real estate company from Western Canada.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it has not done well in the last 5 years. The thing is that this company is in western Canada and western Canada has not done well lately. Places like Alberta have a boom and bust economy.

The dividend yields are in the moderate zone (2 to 4% ranges). The current yield is 3.87% with the 5, 10 and historical yields at 3.37%, 3.05% and 2.78%. This stock started out in the 1990’s with yields in the 1 and 2% ranges.

The changes in dividends have varied over time. Dividends have gone down as well as up at various points. The dividend growth is poor for the past 5 and 10 years because of a dividend decrease of 20% in 2016.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 27% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for FFO for 2018 is 31% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 32% with 5 year coverage at 33%.

Debt Ratios are quite good except for the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is high at 1.61. I think the market cap is depressed. The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 3.07 with the Debt Ratio at 2.12. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.90 ad 0.90.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

I know that this stock has not done well lately, but I am in for the long term and I still have faith in this company. I realize it maybe a while before this company can do well again.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.79%	-6.06%	-9.33%	3.27%
2008	10	2.16%	17.63%	10.37%	7.25%
2003	15	10.91%	12.48%	6.77%	5.71%
1998	20	12.42%	17.38%	10.08%	7.30%
1993	25	13.92%	18.27%	9.94%	8.34%
1990	28	15.16%	17.20%	9.79%	7.42%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.45, 7.70 and 8.95. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.87, 7.51 and 8.69. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.28, 7.25 and 8.40. The current P/E Ratio is 8.18 based on a stock price of $13.42 and 2019 EPS estimate of $1.64. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $34.37. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.36, 0.50 and 0.55. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.39 based on a stock price of $13.42. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.67. The current P/B Ratio is 0.42 based on a stock price of $13.42, Book Value of $1,068M and Book Value per Share of $32.01. The current ratio is some 37% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.78. The current yield is 3.87% based on a stock price of $13.42 and dividends of $0.52. The current yield is 39% above the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.92. The current P/S Ratio is 1.59 based on 2019 Revenue of $262M, Revenue per Share of $8.46 and a stock price of $13.42. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is probably cheap to reasonable. The P/S Ratio test is, of course, a good one and we must pay attention to it. The P/GP ratio, P/B ratio and the yield tests are good test and it is showing stock price as relatively cheap. The P/E Ratio test is my least favourite. The P/E Ratios, P/GP Ratios and P/B Ratios are quite low compared to what would be normal for most stocks.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find one analyst following this stock and has given a recommendation of Hold. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $16.00. This implies a total return of 23.10% with 3.87% from dividends and 19.25% from capital gains based on a current stock price of $13.42.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. This stock is not well followed and there are few remarks. Ryan Goldsman on Motley Fool talks about this company being undervalued. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the company can comfortable service its debt. The company talks about their 2018 results on Global News Wire. Richard Conner on What’s on Thorold talks about short selling of shares is down 5%.

Melcor Developments Ltd is a real estate development and asset management company. It develops and manages mixed-use residential communities, business and industrial parks, office buildings, retail commercial centers and golf courses. Its web site is here Melcor Developments Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 20, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Real Estate Stocks.... learn more on Tuesday, March 19, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Richelieu Hardware Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Stock price is reasonable. The company has good debt ratios. Dividend yield is above 1%. I do not buy stocks when yield is below 1%. See my spreadsheet on Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2007 because it was recommended by the Investment Reporter. It is not on any of the dividend lists, probably because they only started to pay dividends in 2000, they are a rather small company and they did not increase dividends in 2009. This stock has been much recommended by MPL Communications.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed most of the coloured ink is green. Dividend Payout Ratios have remained low with the DPR for 2018 at 21% with 5 year coverage at 20%. I have had this stock for almost 10 years and my total return is 16.69% per year with 15.01% from capital gains and 1.68% from dividends. The dividend yield on my original cost is 4.08%.

Both the dividend yield is low and the dividend growth is low to moderate. The current dividend yield is 1.08% with 5, 10 and historical yields at 0.88%, 1.21% and 1.13%. The dividend increases have been inconsistent. See the chart below. They had moderate dividend growth in the past but only low growth over the past 5 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 21% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 16% with 5 year coverage at 17%.

Debt Ratios are very good. This company currently has no long term debt. They did have some at various points in the past. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 4.64 with 5 year median of 4.40. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 5.95 with 5 year median of 5.42. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 1.20 and 0.20 with 5 year medians at 1.22 and 0.22.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	6.72%	10.43%	9.21%	1.22%
2008	10	8.45%	16.19%	14.56%	1.63%
2003	15	9.68%	10.02%	8.87%	1.15%
1998	20	12.46%	17.31%	15.67%	1.64%
1993	25		15.99%	14.80%	1.19%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.44, 22.71 and 25.98. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.72, 18.50 and 21.27. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.05, 14.80 and 18.35. The current P/E Ratio is 18.58 based on a stock price of $23.23 and 2019 EPS estimate of 1.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of $15.22. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.33, 1.56 and 1.80. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.53 based on a stock price of $23.23. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.97. The current P/B Ratio is 2.82 based on a Book Value of $470M, Book Value per Share of $8.23 and a stock price of $23.23. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of $1.13. The current dividend yield is 1.08% based on Dividends of $0.24 and a stock price of $23.23. The current dividend is 4.8% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.44. The current P/S Ratio is 1.27 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $1,044M, Revenue per Share of $18.28 and a stock price of $23.23. The current ratio is 12% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is probably reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test is important on Consumer stocks. Most of the other tests, except for the dividend yield one agree. At least the current yield is above 1% as I do not buy a stock with dividend yield below 1%.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only one analyst following this stock and the recommendation is a Buy, so the consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $29.00. This implies a total return of 25.91% with 24.84% from capital gains and 1.08% from dividends based on a current stock price of $23.23.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. It is generally well thought of but some think it is a bit pricey. Nelson Smith on Motley Fool thinks this is a great stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about this stock’s low Beta. Hazel Jackson on Thorold News talk about expected EPS for the next quarter.

Richelieu Hardware Ltd is a Canada-based company that imports, manufactures, and distributes specialty hardware and complementary products. Headquartered in Montreal, the company operates across Canada and the eastern and midwestern regions of the United States. The majority of the company's sales are derived from its operations in Canada. Its web site is here Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF) ... learn more on Monday, March 18, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Goodfellow Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Consumer. This small cap seems to be cheap. It has very good debt ratios. However, it is also relatively risky. Reinstating their divided is a good sign. See my spreadsheet on Goodfellow Inc.

I own this stock of Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF). I started to look at this stock when I was searching for small cap stocks that paid dividends. It looked like an interesting stock. Goodfellow is a small cap stock that the Investor Reporter has written about a number of times.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they have reinstated their dividend. This is a good sign that the company is optimistic about the future. After two years of earnings losses, they made a profit again in 2018. Sales were down in 2017 and 2018, but analysts expect an increase in sales for 2019.

The company cancelled dividends in 2017 and paid none in 2018. However, they were reinstated for this year with a dividend of $0.10 in March. They do not say how often dividends will not be paid, but they were paid semi-annually before in August and November in past years. I am assuming that this will be a semi-annual dividend. I could be wrong.

Even assuming that dividends will be paid semi-annually, dividends growth is a negative 8% over the past 5 years. The last dividend paid was for $0.15, and in 2016 the total dividends paid was $0.30.

They probably stopped paying a dividend because of the EPS losses in 2016 and 2017. They made $0.30 EPS in 2018. If they end up paying out $0.20 in dividends, the Dividend Payment Ratio might be 67%.

Debt Ratios are generally very good. They do not have much in Long Term Debt, so Long Term Debt/Market Cap is very low at 0.03. On the other hand, they do have a lot of short term bank loans and in a ratio re Market Cap, it would be 0.84. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is very good at 2.04 with 5 year median also at 2.04.

The Debt Ratio is also very good at 2.43 for 2018 with5 year median at 2.45 also. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.69 and 0.69, respectively. The 5 year medians are 1.62 and 0.62 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Only very long term investors have made money currently on this stock. Recent investors have not done well and I also have a loss of 6.32% with capital loss of 8.61% and dividends of 2.29%.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.00%	-8.00%	-10.21%	2.21%
2008	10	0.00%	2.09%	-3.28%	5.38%
2003	15	0.00%	5.13%	-2.07%	7.19%
1998	20	0.00%	9.10%	1.11%	7.99%
1996	22	0.00%	10.56%	2.25%	8.32%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.26, 10.02 and 10.78. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.81, 10.65 and 11.49. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.05, 8.40 and 9.33. The current P/E Ratio is 21.40 based on a stock price of $6.42 and latest 12 month’s EPS of $0.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $9.48. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.53, 0.59 and 0.65. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.68 based on a stock price of $6.42. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.66. The current P/B Ratio is 0.48 based on Book Value of $112.86, Book Value per Share of $13.27 and a stock price of $6.42. the current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.55%. The current dividend yield is 3.12% based on dividends of $0.20 and a stock price of $6.42. The current dividend is 12% below the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.16. The current P/S Ratio is 0.09 based on last 12 month Revenue, Revenue per Share of $61.76 and a stock price of $6.42. The current ratio is 34% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing should probably focus on the P/S Ratio test. It is sales that push all other values in the longer term. The P/E Ratio is unreliable when you have earnings losses. On an absolute level, a Price/Graham Price Ratio of less than 1.00 points to a cheap price. A P/B Ratio under 1.00 also points to a cheap price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find that no analysts follow this stock.

Benjamin Sinclair on Motley Fool wrote about this stock in 2014. The stock was a bargain, but he said we should be careful about bargains. John Newcomb on Stock Digest wrote about this stock this month. He said that investors have shown an interest in this stock. Saundra Reilly via Simply Wall Street says the company’s Return on Capital Employed is low. The company reported its fourth quarterly results on Globe News Wire.

Goodfellow Inc is engaged in remanufacturers and distributors of lumber products and hardwood flooring products. It is engaged in the wholesale distribution of wood products, and remanufacturing, distribution, and brokerage of lumber. Its web site is here Goodfellow Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more on Friday, March 15, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about A Portfolio.... learn more on Thursday, March 14, 2019 around 5 pm

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Tire Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. It would seem that the stock price is reasonable and around the median. A problem is the lack of adequate growth in book value. Dividend Payout Ratio is increasing, but good increases in dividends suggest that management see a good future. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Tire Corp.

I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF). In 2000 when I first bought this stock, it was on the Investment Reporter's list of conservative Canadian stocks. I bought stock for my trading account in 2009 because I have done well with it in my Pension Account and it was a consumer stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the Dividend Payout Ratio has been increasing since 2008. DPR has grown from 18% to 34%. The dividends did not change between 1991 and 2003.

The dividend yield is low to moderate. The current dividend is moderate at 2.85%. The 5, 10 and historical median yields are all low at 1.71%, 1.73 % and 1.70% respectively. Long term dividend growth is moderate, but it has been good for the good for the last 15 years. Moderate growth is over 8% to 14% range and good is 15% and over.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 33.8% with 5 year coverage at 26.7%. The DPR for CFPS is 13.5% with 5 year coverage at 12.8%.

Debt Ratios are acceptable. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.65. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 1.76. The Debt Ratio is a little low at 1.46, but 5 year median is 1.60. I like this ratio at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 3.19 and 2.19. The 5 year median ratios are better at 2.63 and 1.63. It would be nice if these ratios were under 3.00 and under 2.00, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	20.79%	9.61%	7.49%	2.13%
2008	10	15.67%	14.79%	12.63%	2.16%
2003	15	15.78%	10.62%	8.95%	1.67%
1998	20	11.61%	7.71%	6.44%	1.27%
1993	25	9.19%	12.44%	10.41%	2.03%
1990	28	8.36%	7.88%	6.57%	1.31%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.65, 14.32 and 15.89. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 10.75, 12.59 and 14.70. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.23, 13.68 and 15.55. The current P/E Ratios 11.01 based on a stock price of $145.38 and 2019 EPS estimate of $13.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $145.58. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.92 and 1.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.01 based on a stock price of $145.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.51. The current ratio is 2.09 based on a stock price of $145.38, Book Value of $,5415 and Book Value per Share of $69.41. The current ratio is 39% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.70%. The current dividend yield is 2.83% based on dividends of $4.15 and a stock price of $145.38. The current yield is 68% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.62. The current P/S Ratio is 0.62 based on a stock price of $145.38, 2019 Revenue estimate of $14,795M, and Revenue per Share of $235.21. The current ratio is the same and the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

Results of stock price testing is I think is that the stock price is reasonable and around the median, which is what the P/S Ratio testing is showing. It is interesting that tests are all over the place. The problem with the P/B Ratio is that Book Value is not growing much. This seems to be the results of share buybacks and new accounting rules.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (7), Hold (5) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $175.17. This implies a total return of 23.35%, with 20.49% from capital gains and 2.85% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. The company is liked but many mentioned that retail is tough and everyone is having trouble with Amazon. Andrew Button on Motley Fool says the company is long term market beater. A writer at Simply Wall Street says this stock is undervalued. The Canadian Press via the Financial talks about the company’s fourth quarterly results.. Dividend Earner on Seeking Alpha has a positive view on this stock.

Canadian Tire sells home goods, sporting equipment, apparel, footwear, automotive parts and accessories, and vehicle fuel through a 1,700-store network of company, dealer, and franchisee-operated locations across Canada. Aside from the namesake banner, stores operate primarily under the Mark's, SportChek, Atmosphere, and PartSource monikers. The firm also operates and holds majority ownership of a financing arm (Canadian Tire Financial Services. Its web site is here Canadian Tire Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 13, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian Dividend Stocks.... learn more on Tuesday, March 12, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

H & R Real Estate Trust

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. The stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median. Some tests show the stock price above the median and some below the median. Outstanding shares have grown faster than Revenue, which is not good. See my spreadsheet on H & R Real Estate Trust.

I do not own this stock of H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF). Before I started blogging, I was following a number of REITs and this is one I had followed. It also used to be on a dividend list I followed.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed outstanding shares have grown but revenue has not. Shares have grown by 1% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Because of uneven growth in revenues, I am looking at 5 and 10 year Running Averages. The 5 and 10 year running averages show growth of 9%. And 8.5%. If you Look at Revenue per Share, 5 year running averages show growth of 0.2% and 0.5%. This shows that no real progress has been made on revenue.

The 5 year running averages for the past 5 years show average growth for the 5 years ending in 2018 compared to the 5 year average growth to 2013. The 5 year running averages for the past 10 years show average growth for the 5 years ending in 2018 compared to the 5 year average growth to 2008.

Dividend yield are good. The current dividend is 5.97% with 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields at 6.21, 6.01% and 6.47%. The dividend growth is low. See the table below. Nine years ago, the dividends were cut by 50%. They are not quite back to were they were in 2008. In 2008, dividends were at $1.44 and current they are at $1.38.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are probably fine. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 1285 with 5 year coverage at 103%. Since this is a REIT, the DPR is usually calculated using FFO and AFFO. The DPR for 2018 for FFO is 80% with 5 year coverage at 73%. The DPR for 2018 for AFFO is $98% with 5 year coverage at 91%.

Debt Ratios are not what I would like to see and there is some vulnerability here. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.98. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 0.99, but if you add in cash flow after dividends the ratio is 1.32. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.96. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 2.04 and 1.04.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.44%	5.74%	-0.71%	6.45%
2008	10	-0.42%	20.77%	10.73%	10.04%
2003	15	0.80%	8.75%	1.76%	6.98%
1998	20	1.47%	12.92%	3.59%	9.34%
1996	22	3.43%	12.24%	3.35%	8.89%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.51, 16.71 and 18.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.53, 15.96 and 18.21. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.53, 14.25 and 16.23. The current P/E Ratio is 13.06 based on a stock price of $23.12 and 2019 EPS estimate of $1.77. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price if relatively cheap.

Since this is a REIT, we need to repeat this test using FFO. The 5 year Price/Funds from Operations Ratios are 10.96, 11.66 and 12.69. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.68, 11.98 and 12.87. The current P/FFO Ratio is 12.70 based on 2010 FFO estimate of 1.82 and a stock price of $23.12. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price if relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $32.23. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.65, 0.70 and 0.79. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.72 based on a stock price of 23.12. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price if relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.96. The current P/B Ratio is 0.96. The current P/B Ratio is 0.92 based on a Book Value of $7,200M, Book Value per Share of $25.20 and a stock price of $23.12. The current ratio is 4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price if relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.57%. The current dividend yield is 5.97% based on dividends of $1.38 and a stock price of $23.12. The current yield is 7.8% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price if relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.16. The current P/S Ratio is 5.08 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $1,299M, Revenue per Share of $4.55 and a stock price of $23.12. The current ratio is 1.5% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price if relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median. Some tests show the stock price above the median and some below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (6) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $24.78. This implies a total return of 13.15% with 7.18% from capital gains and 5.97% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. One analyst said that the dividends are safe, but growth will be modest. Nelson Smith on Motley Fool thinks the 6% dividend is great. A writer on Simply Wall Street says this company has recently had positive investor sentiment. Caroline Biscotti on Brookville Times says Piotroski F-Score of 5 where 9 is financial strength and 1 is financial weakness. Cheyenne Larson on Press Oracle about recent analysts ratings.

H&R Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust principally involved in the ownership of properties in Canada and the U.S. H&R owns and manages a real estate portfolio rather equally divided between property in the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Alberta and in the U.S. Its web site is here H & R Real Estate Trust.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF) ... learn more on Monday, March 11, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.