Monday, September 24, 2018

Trican Well Service Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Services Stock. This company services the oil and gas industry. It would seem that the stock is relatively cheap, but it is also quite risky. It does have very good debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Trican Well Service Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Trican Well Service Ltd (TSX-TCW, OTC-TOLWF). I was following Canyon Services Group Inc. and Trican Well Services Ltd. had a plan of arrangement with Canyon Shareholders. I used to get a newsletter weekly from MPL Communications called Advice Hotline. They wrote up the Canyon Services Group stock on July 19, 2012 and I was impressed with it so I did a spreadsheet.

I am following this company from Canyon Services Group into Trican Well Services. When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it does not seem to be doing very well and it would seem that it will be a while before it has dividends again. TCW cancelled dividends in 2014 and analysts do not expect it to make a profit this year.

All the debt ratios are good. This is always a good idea if you have volatility in your earnings like this company. Long Term Debt/Market Cap is low at 0.06. Liquidity for 2017 is 1.94 with 5 year median of 1.52. The Debt Ratio for 2017 is 4.56 with 5 year median of 3.97. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2017 are 1.28 and 0.28 with 5 year median of 1.31 and 0.31.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 11. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

This stock is rather risky, so you would want a good long term return. The only return that would justify the risk would be the 10 year return. However, this stock is in a boom, bust industry.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 n/a -6.10% -9.38% 3.28%
10 n/a 17.22% 11.92% 5.30%
11 6.36% 3.11% 3.25%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are -3.56, -4.52 and -5.88. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 0.22, 1.64 and 1.72. The historical corresponding ratios are 0.22, 1.72 and 2.22. These are low or negative ratios are because of earnings losses. The current P/E ratio is -25.33. It is not possible to test the stock price using P/E Ratios.

I get a Graham Price of $1.92. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.52, 0.94 and 1.31. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.19 based on a stock price of $2.28. This stock price testing suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. Next year the Graham Price is projected to be $4.04 with a P/GP Ratio of just 0.57. However, projections are notorious for being inaccurate and the further way they are the more inaccurate they seem.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.59. The current P/B Ratio is 0.69 based on Book Value of $1074M, Book Value per Share of $3.29 and a stock price of $2.28. The current P/B Ratio is some 54% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggest that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0% because dividends have been cancelled, so we cannot do any testing using the dividend yield.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.78. The current P/S Ratio is 0.70 based on Revenue estimates for 2018 of $1,070M, Revenue per Share of $3.28 and a stock price of $2.28. The current P/S Ratio is some 61% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggest that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I do so many tests on the stock price because for different stocks in different periods some tests are not really applicable for various reason. For this stock the best tests seem to be the P/B Ratio and P/S Ratios. Both these show the stock has being relatively cheap. The P/B Ratio test maybe the best because it uses no estimates.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (9) and Hold (4). The Consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $4.71. This implies a 107% return of all capital gains based on a stock price of $2.28.

Vince Mercandetti on Baseball Daily Digest talks about some analysts downgrading this stock. News on Reuters talk about the TSX going up 0.06% and this stock falling 6.2% on September 21, 2018. Karen Thomas on Motley Fool talks about there being some good upside for oil service stocks in the future, including for this one. She is right about the industry upswing returns being phenomenal and downturns being brutal. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They think it is cheap, almost debt free and well run.

Trican Well Service Ltd is an oilfield services company engaged in providing products, equipment, services, and technology used in drilling, completion, stimulation and reworking of oil and gas wells in Canada, United States and internationally. Its web site is here Trican Well Service Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Wajax Corp. (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO, OTC-GWLIF) ... learn more on Wednesday, September 26, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2018 – Gordon Pape.... learn more on Tuesday, September 25, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

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