Friday, August 3, 2018

Ballard Power Systems Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Tech Stock. This is listed as an industrial stock, but it is really a tech stock. It has always operated on a hope and a dream. Today is no different. At the time I bought it, it was the next big thing that did not work out. However, relatively speaking it does seem expensive. See my spreadsheet on Ballard Power Systems Inc. .

I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP), but I used to. Back in 1997, I read about Ballard and fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. I sold this stock in 2006 because it had lost its attraction. It did not seem that Ballard fuel cells would be in any car anytime soon. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and never recovered.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company still is not earning any profit. Analysts keep putting off when the first positive earnings will appear.

This stock pays not dividends and it never has.

All the debt ratios for this company are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is very low at 0.01. The Liquidity Ratio for 2017 is 2.61 with 5 year median of 2.50. The Debt Ratio for 2017 is 3.28 with 5 year median of 2.96. These last two ratios are good if 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.44 and 0.47. (These ratios are the same in either currency.)

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 22. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

It looks like this stock is currently earning some capital gains for the shareholders. For long term holders there is not happy story yet.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 0.00% 55.58% 55.58% 0.00%
10 0.00% 0.48% 0.48% 0.00%
15 0.00% -7.09% -7.09% 0.00%
20 0.00% -8.96% -8.96% 0.00%
22 0.00% 0.48% 0.48% 0.00%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are -9.22, -18.87 and -29.90. The historical P/E Ratios are -8.91, 13.81 and 18.39. the current P/E Ratio is -34.45 CDN$ based on a stock price of $4.05 CDN$ and 2018 EPS estimate of $-$0.12 CDN$ (-$0.09 US$). You cannot do this test with negative P/E Ratios.

I get a Graham Price of $0.71 CDN$. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.32, 0.90 and 0.59 CDN$. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.67 CDN$ based on a stock price of $4.05 CDN$. Since there are lots of earning losses this is not a good test for this stock. However, this test does suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.88 US$. The current P/B Ratio is 4.66 US$ based on Book Value of $118.73, Book Value per Share of |$0.66 US$ and a stock price of $3.10 US$. The current P/B Ratio is some 148% above the 10 year median ratio. This test does suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.06 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 4.86 US$ based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $114 US$, Revenue per Share of $0.64 US$ and a stock price of $3.10 US$. The current P/S Ratio is some 59% higher than the 10 year ratio. This test does suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy (1) and Hold (2). The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month price consensus is $3.11 CDN$ ($2.38 US$). This implies a total loss of 23.24% all of which is a capital loss.

Jayson Maclean on Can Tech thinks that Ballard should pivot to ships. In this article the company on News Wire talk about acquiring assets from AFCC. Peter Kolinski on What’s on Thorold talks about recent analysts recommendations on this stock. Maxx Chatsko of Motley Fool does not believe in this stock. Analysts on Stock Chase are not impressed with this stock either.

Ballard Power Systems Inc is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, sale, and service of proton exchange membrane fuel cell products for a variety of applications, focusing on commercial stage and development stage markets. Its web site is here Ballard Power Systems Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) ... learn more on Tuesday, August 07, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

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