I own this stock of Barrick Gold Corp (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX). I bought some of this stock in April 2013 because its stock price had fallen hard. I believed the market over reacted. I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest. I bought another 100 shares in 2016.
Last year at this time I had a profit of 19.21% per year. This year when I checked I had a profit of 0.13%. The stock price has come down a lot over the past year.
Dividends are paid in US$ and this company reports in US$. Dividends have been all over the place for this stock. They are increased, decreased and flat Of course the problem is that some years the company makes money and some years it does not. As you can see from the charts below, the dividends have been declining lately.
In 2017 the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is 9.8%. The 5 year coverage is a negative 7.8%. The DPR for CFPS is 6.8% with 5 year coverage of 8.6%. It would seem that there is not much trouble in the paying of dividends. The 5 year coverage is the most important, but the negative cover at 7.8% is not high.
The price of the stock has been falling since 2011. It looks like it has done slightly better in US$ than in CDN$ but in either currency it seems to at a price it was some 25 years ago. The Total Return is show below for years of 5 to 27. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.
| Years | Div Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div | CDN$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | -27.45% | -11.35% | -12.19% | 0.84% | |
| 10 | -6.55% | -6.72% | -7.98% | 1.26% | |
| 15 | -5.43% | -0.30% | -1.93% | 1.62% | |
| 20 | -2.07% | -0.37% | -1.89% | 1.52% | |
| 25 | 2.43% | 1.25% | -0.31% | 1.55% | |
| 30 | 8.51% | 5.52% | 3.36% | 2.16% |
| Years | Div Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div | US$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | -30.69% | -15.44% | -16.20% | 0.76% | |
| 10 | -8.76% | -8.86% | -10.12% | 1.26% | |
| 15 | -3.96% | 1.68% | -0.42% | 2.10% | |
| 20 | -1.43% | 0.40% | -1.32% | 1.72% | |
| 25 | 2.48% | 1.35% | -0.27% | 1.62% | |
| 30 | 8.64% | 5.62% | 3.48% | 2.14% |
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and are of no use. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 3.94, 4.13 and 4.32 and are not much better. The historical ratios are 14.38, 16.63 and 18.74. The current P/E Ratio is 16.06 based on a current price of $16.19 CDN$ and 2018 EPS estimate of $1.01 CDN$ ($0.79 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $15.05 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 1.21 and 1.46 CDN$. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.08 based on a stock price of $16.19 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 2.12 US$. The current P/B Ratio is 1.59 a values some 25% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on Book Value of $9,286M US$, Book Value per Share of $7.96 and a stock price of $12.69 US$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. There tends not to be much difference if I test in CDN$ or US$. They do report in US$.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.96% CDN$. The current dividend yield is 0.95% just 1.4% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median. This is not a good test because dividends have been decreasing.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.59 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 1.86 a value some 28% lower. The current P/S Ratio is based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $7,974M US$, Revenue per Share of $6.84 US$ and a stock price of $12.69 US$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (4), Hold (14) and Underperform (1). The consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $17.21 US$ or $21.97 CDN$. This implies a total return of 36.63% with 35.68% from capital gains and 0.95% from Dividends.
Austin Wood on Simply Wall Street thinks that the outlook for this stock is not good. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool has hope for this stock. An article on Post Analyst says that this stock is trending higher. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They vary greatly in their views of this stock
Barrick Gold Corp is engaged in the production and sale of gold and copper, as well as related activities such as exploration and mine development. Its mining projects are located in North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Its web site is here Barrick Gold Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Leon's Furniture Ltd. (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Pembina Pipelines Corp. (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA)... learn more on Friday, April 13, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Robin Speziale.... learn more on Thursday, April 12, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
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