Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Interesting Dividend Stock. It seems like the stock is at a relatively reasonable price. This stock pays well, but capital gain is low. See my spreadsheet on Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp.
I do not own this stock of Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF). I saw this on company on the Canadian Dividend All-Star List. It has just recently started to pay dividends and dividends are good.
This company went on the TSX in 2012, just 5 years ago. Most of the total return is in dividends. Over the past 5 years total return is 10.35% with 2.73% from capital gains and 7.61% in dividends. Also shares are increasing a lot with the 5 and 8 year increase at 9.55% and 23.47%. In 2017 outstanding shares were up by almost 23%.
When they issue their financial results in February each year, they also declare a special dividend so that all of their earnings during the previous year that ended December 31 are paid out to their shareholders. Their payout ratio during the year is around 90%, but including the special dividend, their payout ratio is approximately 100%.
It would also seem that their dividends are taxed as interest income as they are a Mortgage Investment Corporation. Because of this it might be a product more suitable for a TFSA or RSP or RIF accounts. It is like the old income trust stock
Their dividend yields are high and they are currently at 7.10% based on dividends of 0.90 and a stock price of $12.68. So far their dividend high is 8.26% and their dividend low is 6.63% with a median of 7.22%. They also give a special dividend in February of each year so that they pay out all their income to shareholders. The special dividend paid has a median of $0.08 giving an extra yield each year around 0.6%.
The growth in dividends is low. The 4 year growth is 4.6% per year. However, for the past 3 years growth in dividends has been less than 2.5% and the dividends grew just 2.3% in 2018. It would seem that growth in dividends is currently around inflation growth.
I cannot talk about long term return as this company only started to trade in 2012 which is 5 years ago. I can get a stock price back to 2009 using what the company sold stock at. However, when they sold stock in 2009, 2010 and 2011 it was all for $9.90.
They debt ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.35. The Debt Ratio is 2.25. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.80 and 0.80 and these are also good. It would seem that the current assets can cover current liabilities, but for such stock the Liquidity Ratio is often ignored.
The Return on Equity is a little low with the one for 2017 at 8.3% and the 5 year median at 8.5%. The comprehensive income ROE is that same as the ROE on net income.
Revenue is growing strongly but EPS is not. Because the company is increasing their outstanding shares, you have to look at per share values to see if there is growth. For Revenue the 5 and 7 year growth is at 23.9% and 29%. However if you look at Revenue per Share growth it is much lower and this is the real growth. The Growth in Revenue per Share over the past 5 and 7 years is 13.1% and 6.7% per year. EPS has only growth at 1.8% and 0.5% per year over the past 5 and 7 years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.65, 12.40 and 13.30. The current P/E Ratio is 12.94 based on a stock price of $12.68 and 2018 EPS estimate of $0.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.
I get a Graham Price of $15.21. The 8 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios ate 0.73, 0.79 and 0.85. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.83 based on a stock price of $12.68. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. However, any P/GP Ratio below 1.00 is considered to be low.
The 8 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.11. The current P/B Ratio is 1.21 based on Book Value of $349M, Book Value per Share of $10.50 and a stock price of $12.68. The current P/B Ratio is some 9% higher than the 8 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. However, any P/B Ratio below 1.50 is considered to be low.
I get a historical median dividend yield of 7.22%. The current dividend yield is 7.10% based on a stock price of 12.68 and dividends of $0.90. The current yield is some 1.70% below he historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 7 year Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 7.89. The current P/B Ratio is 7.56 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $55.8M, Revenue per Share of $1.68 and a stock price of $12.68. The current ratio is some 4.2% below the 7 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (1) and Hold (1) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $12.75. This implies a total return of 7.65% with 0.33% from capital gains and 7.10% from dividends based on a current stock price of $12.68.
There is a press release at Stockhouse about the financial year 2017. In an article in Real Estate News Exchange CEO of Atrium is upbeat about the future. Becky Mayes writes on Simply Wall Street about this company. She complains about the high payout ratio, but because this company is a Mortgage Investment Corporation it must payout all its earnings.
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp is a non-banking finance company providing residential and commercial mortgages that lends in major urban centers in Canada where the stability and liquidity of real estate are high. Its web site is here Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp .
The last stock I wrote about was about was Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC- RIOCF)... learn more on March 2, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about A Portfolio.... learn more on Thursday, March 1, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Monday, February 26, 2018
Bombardier Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Maybe recovering Industrial. I sold because I got tired of waiting for the company to improve. Yes the stock price has been going up recently, but I did not like it having a negative book value and all the delays in producing street cars for Toronto and in CSeries plane deliveries. See my spreadsheet on Bombardier Inc.
I do not own this stock of Bombardier Inc. (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF) but I used to. I had had this stock from 1987 and sold in November of last year.. I made 11.08% per year on the stock with 5.69% from capital gains and 5.39% from dividends. This stock has had dividends off and on.
This company did well in the 2001 bull market, but then crashed in 2002 and has never really recovered. It was a great stock when I bought it as it kept rising and splitting and rising and splitting. However, those days seem long past.
When I bought this stock in 1987 it was paying dividends and they paid dividends to 2004. They had earnings losses in 2003 to 2005 so in 2004 it was clear that they could not afford dividends. They restarted the dividends in 2009 and stopped them again in 2014. They stopped the dividends when they had an earnings loss in 2014.
If you look at long term returns which have up to 30 years ago, shareholders owning this stock for 25 to 30 years have made money. For all other time periods, shareholders have losses. The total loss over the past 5, 10, 15 and 20 years is at 3.10%, 3.21%, 2.19% and 2.65% per year. The capital loss over these periods was 4.23%, 4.79%, 3.44% and 4.11% per year. The portion of total return attributable to dividends over these periods was 1.12%, 1.58% , 1.25% and 1.46%.
For shareholders who have held this stock for 25 and 20 years their total return is 6.64% and 11.25%. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 2.99% and 5.92%. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 3.65% and 5.33%. Another point to make is that this stock is up by 197% over the past 3 years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio are negative and therefore they are of no use. The 10 year ratios are 5.09, 9.09 and 13.09. The historical ratios are 10.78, 15.12 and 18.59. The current P/E Ratio is 52.36 with next year's lower at 19.64. The current P/E Ratio is based on a stock price of $3.98 and 2018 EPS of $0.08 CDN$ ($.06 US$). The 2019 P/E Ratio is based on a stock price of $3.98 and 2019 EPS of $0.20 CDN$ ($0.16 US$). It is probably reasonable to look forward as it will take time for this stock to recover its EPS. However, this testing does suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
I cannot get a Graham Price as the Book Value is negative and has been since 2014. I also cannot do a Book Value stock price test because of the negative Book Value. To me a negative book value is really bad. I also cannot do a dividend yield test for the stock price as the company no longer has a dividend.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 0.37 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 0.40 US$. This is based on Revenue estimate for 2018 of $17,617M US$, Revenue per Share of $7.84 US$ and a stock price $3.15 U$. The current P/S Ratio is some 9% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (12) and Hold (5). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $3.41 US$ or $4.32 CDN$. This implies a total return of 8.54% of capital gain.
Demetris Afxentiou of Motley Fool thinks it might be time to buy this stock. Frederic Tomesco of Bloomberg in the Toronto Star says the company is doing well under their new CEO Alain Bellemare. On a more negative note, Frederic Tomesco of Bloomsbert in the Montreal Gazette says that the company got a public scolding because of delays in suppling street cars to Toronto and missing out on transit contracts for Montreal and NYC. See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase . They have mixed views.
Bombardier Inc. is engaged in manufacturing planes and rails. It designs business jets, commercial aircraft, and aircraft structural components such as fuselages, wings and engine nacelles. The company also provides full spectrum of rail solutions. Its web site is here Bombardier Inc .
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF)... learn more on Wednesday, February 28, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about My Best Investments.... learn more on Tuesday, February 27, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I do not own this stock of Bombardier Inc. (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF) but I used to. I had had this stock from 1987 and sold in November of last year.. I made 11.08% per year on the stock with 5.69% from capital gains and 5.39% from dividends. This stock has had dividends off and on.
This company did well in the 2001 bull market, but then crashed in 2002 and has never really recovered. It was a great stock when I bought it as it kept rising and splitting and rising and splitting. However, those days seem long past.
When I bought this stock in 1987 it was paying dividends and they paid dividends to 2004. They had earnings losses in 2003 to 2005 so in 2004 it was clear that they could not afford dividends. They restarted the dividends in 2009 and stopped them again in 2014. They stopped the dividends when they had an earnings loss in 2014.
If you look at long term returns which have up to 30 years ago, shareholders owning this stock for 25 to 30 years have made money. For all other time periods, shareholders have losses. The total loss over the past 5, 10, 15 and 20 years is at 3.10%, 3.21%, 2.19% and 2.65% per year. The capital loss over these periods was 4.23%, 4.79%, 3.44% and 4.11% per year. The portion of total return attributable to dividends over these periods was 1.12%, 1.58% , 1.25% and 1.46%.
For shareholders who have held this stock for 25 and 20 years their total return is 6.64% and 11.25%. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 2.99% and 5.92%. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 3.65% and 5.33%. Another point to make is that this stock is up by 197% over the past 3 years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio are negative and therefore they are of no use. The 10 year ratios are 5.09, 9.09 and 13.09. The historical ratios are 10.78, 15.12 and 18.59. The current P/E Ratio is 52.36 with next year's lower at 19.64. The current P/E Ratio is based on a stock price of $3.98 and 2018 EPS of $0.08 CDN$ ($.06 US$). The 2019 P/E Ratio is based on a stock price of $3.98 and 2019 EPS of $0.20 CDN$ ($0.16 US$). It is probably reasonable to look forward as it will take time for this stock to recover its EPS. However, this testing does suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
I cannot get a Graham Price as the Book Value is negative and has been since 2014. I also cannot do a Book Value stock price test because of the negative Book Value. To me a negative book value is really bad. I also cannot do a dividend yield test for the stock price as the company no longer has a dividend.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 0.37 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 0.40 US$. This is based on Revenue estimate for 2018 of $17,617M US$, Revenue per Share of $7.84 US$ and a stock price $3.15 U$. The current P/S Ratio is some 9% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (12) and Hold (5). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $3.41 US$ or $4.32 CDN$. This implies a total return of 8.54% of capital gain.
Demetris Afxentiou of Motley Fool thinks it might be time to buy this stock. Frederic Tomesco of Bloomberg in the Toronto Star says the company is doing well under their new CEO Alain Bellemare. On a more negative note, Frederic Tomesco of Bloomsbert in the Montreal Gazette says that the company got a public scolding because of delays in suppling street cars to Toronto and missing out on transit contracts for Montreal and NYC. See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase . They have mixed views.
Bombardier Inc. is engaged in manufacturing planes and rails. It designs business jets, commercial aircraft, and aircraft structural components such as fuselages, wings and engine nacelles. The company also provides full spectrum of rail solutions. Its web site is here Bombardier Inc .
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF)... learn more on Wednesday, February 28, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about My Best Investments.... learn more on Tuesday, February 27, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Friday, February 23, 2018
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Canadian REIT. If we exclude the stock price testing on historical median dividend yield, then we are getting a stock price that is from cheap to reasonable. The offer to buy this is $53.61, but the stock price has not gone to there yet. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust.
I own this stock of Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF). In September 2009, I wanted to buy another REIT after having to sell Summit. I already have lots of RioCan. I looked at H&R and CDN REIT. I thought that CDN REIT was a better buy at that time. I was not interested in CAP as it is only Apartments.
I have done very well with this REIT. I have had it for just over 11 years and my total return is 9.54% per year with 4.72% from Capital Gains and 4.82% from distributions. I note that the article taking about the takeover of this REIT says the deal will be in stock and cash. I will all stock if I have that opportunity.
REITs tend to have moderate to good dividend and low dividend growth. This REIT is not different. The current dividend yield is 3.80% with the 5, 10 and historical median dividends at 4.02%, 4.06% and 6.02% respectively. Dividend growth was at 4.75%, 3.43%, 2.97%, 2.98% and 5.03% over the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 23 years.
I have had this REIT for just over 11 years. My yield on my original purchase is 7.09% and my dividends have covered some 66.6% of the cost of my stock. You buy REITs for diversification and also for the good dividends that you get.
Long term returns over the past 5 years have been low, but other durations from 10 to 23 have been good. With this REIT being bought out, the 5 year return will be better. The 5, 10, 15, 20 and 23 total return has been at 5.20%, 9.26%, 15.39%, 13.20% and 16.28% per year. The portion attributed to capital gains is 1.27%, 4.86%, 8.70%, 6.68% and 7.86%. The portion attributable to distributions is 3.92%, 4.40%, 6.69%, 6.52%, and 8.42%. In most years 43% to 51% of the total return is in the distributions.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.11, 23.10 and 25.10. The 10 year ratios are 19.41, 22.83 and 26.26. The historical ratios are 14.54, 16.18, and 17.81. Note that in a lot of cases the IFRS account rules affect EPS for REITs. The current P/E Ratio is 14.92 based on a stock price of $49.23 and 2018 EPS of $3.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
For REITs we also look at Price/AFFO Ratios or Price/FFO Ratios. For this stock I will look at Price/AFFO Ratios. The 5 year low, median and high median P/AFFO Ratios are 15.70, 17.88 and 19.88. The 10 year P/.AFFO Ratios are 15.16, 16.61 and 18.46. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 17.77 based on 2018 AFFO estimate of $2.89 and a stock price of $49.23. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham price of $59.13. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratio is 0.97, 1.12 and 1.29. The current Price/Graham Price Ratio is 0.83. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.47. The current P/B Ratio is 1.05 based on Book Value of $3,456M, Book Value per Share of $47.08 and a stock price of $49.23. The current P/B Ratio is some 29% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The current dividend yield is 3.80%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 4.02%, 4.06% and 6.02%. Note that this REIT had much higher rates prior to 2006 than after that date. In any event all the median dividend yields are higher than the current one with the current rates being 5.5%, 6.5% and 36.9% below the median rates. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is from relatively expensive to relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 7.66. The current P/S Ratio is 7.51 a value some 2% lower. The current P/S Ratio is based on 2018 revenue estimate of $481, Revenue per Share of $6.55 and a stock price of $49.23. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find I find Buy (3) and Hold (4) Recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $53.51. This implies a total return of 12.49% with 8.69% from capital gains and 3.80% from distribution based on a current stock price of $49.23. This is not really accurate as the REIT will probably be bought out before the year end. The Capital gains of 8.69% will certainly a given.
The Weston family through Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust plan to buy this REIT according to a recent article in the Financial Post. Articles do not say when this will happen. The CEO of this REIT gave a positive review of the past year at NASDAQ Globe News Wire. Ambrose O'Callaghan talks about REITs including this one on Motley Fool. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. This REIT is not reviewed often but analysts think well of the company.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust. The Company owns and operates a portfolio of retail, industrial and office properties. Its web site is here Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF)... learn more on Monday, February 26, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I own this stock of Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF). In September 2009, I wanted to buy another REIT after having to sell Summit. I already have lots of RioCan. I looked at H&R and CDN REIT. I thought that CDN REIT was a better buy at that time. I was not interested in CAP as it is only Apartments.
I have done very well with this REIT. I have had it for just over 11 years and my total return is 9.54% per year with 4.72% from Capital Gains and 4.82% from distributions. I note that the article taking about the takeover of this REIT says the deal will be in stock and cash. I will all stock if I have that opportunity.
REITs tend to have moderate to good dividend and low dividend growth. This REIT is not different. The current dividend yield is 3.80% with the 5, 10 and historical median dividends at 4.02%, 4.06% and 6.02% respectively. Dividend growth was at 4.75%, 3.43%, 2.97%, 2.98% and 5.03% over the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 23 years.
I have had this REIT for just over 11 years. My yield on my original purchase is 7.09% and my dividends have covered some 66.6% of the cost of my stock. You buy REITs for diversification and also for the good dividends that you get.
Long term returns over the past 5 years have been low, but other durations from 10 to 23 have been good. With this REIT being bought out, the 5 year return will be better. The 5, 10, 15, 20 and 23 total return has been at 5.20%, 9.26%, 15.39%, 13.20% and 16.28% per year. The portion attributed to capital gains is 1.27%, 4.86%, 8.70%, 6.68% and 7.86%. The portion attributable to distributions is 3.92%, 4.40%, 6.69%, 6.52%, and 8.42%. In most years 43% to 51% of the total return is in the distributions.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.11, 23.10 and 25.10. The 10 year ratios are 19.41, 22.83 and 26.26. The historical ratios are 14.54, 16.18, and 17.81. Note that in a lot of cases the IFRS account rules affect EPS for REITs. The current P/E Ratio is 14.92 based on a stock price of $49.23 and 2018 EPS of $3.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
For REITs we also look at Price/AFFO Ratios or Price/FFO Ratios. For this stock I will look at Price/AFFO Ratios. The 5 year low, median and high median P/AFFO Ratios are 15.70, 17.88 and 19.88. The 10 year P/.AFFO Ratios are 15.16, 16.61 and 18.46. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 17.77 based on 2018 AFFO estimate of $2.89 and a stock price of $49.23. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham price of $59.13. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratio is 0.97, 1.12 and 1.29. The current Price/Graham Price Ratio is 0.83. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.47. The current P/B Ratio is 1.05 based on Book Value of $3,456M, Book Value per Share of $47.08 and a stock price of $49.23. The current P/B Ratio is some 29% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The current dividend yield is 3.80%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 4.02%, 4.06% and 6.02%. Note that this REIT had much higher rates prior to 2006 than after that date. In any event all the median dividend yields are higher than the current one with the current rates being 5.5%, 6.5% and 36.9% below the median rates. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is from relatively expensive to relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 7.66. The current P/S Ratio is 7.51 a value some 2% lower. The current P/S Ratio is based on 2018 revenue estimate of $481, Revenue per Share of $6.55 and a stock price of $49.23. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find I find Buy (3) and Hold (4) Recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $53.51. This implies a total return of 12.49% with 8.69% from capital gains and 3.80% from distribution based on a current stock price of $49.23. This is not really accurate as the REIT will probably be bought out before the year end. The Capital gains of 8.69% will certainly a given.
The Weston family through Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust plan to buy this REIT according to a recent article in the Financial Post. Articles do not say when this will happen. The CEO of this REIT gave a positive review of the past year at NASDAQ Globe News Wire. Ambrose O'Callaghan talks about REITs including this one on Motley Fool. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. This REIT is not reviewed often but analysts think well of the company.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust. The Company owns and operates a portfolio of retail, industrial and office properties. Its web site is here Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF)... learn more on Monday, February 26, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
Home Capital Group
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Financial Services Stock. On a number of tests the stock price seems relatively cheap. Analysts think that dividends will be restarted this year. See my spreadsheet on Home Capital Group.
I own this stock of Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF). I started reviewing this company in September 2009. It is a dividend growth company and was coming up on lists of good dividend paying stocks. It is on some dividend paying companies lists that I look at. Because of the recent problems and cut to dividend I was considering selling this from RSP Account. But perhaps I will not. It is recovering fast and analysts expect dividends to resume in 2018.
The Chairman, CEO and Chief Financial Officer have changed since last year. They have a huge amount of cash on hand. This is equal to some 97% of the stock price.
The dividends where cut after the company paid one dividend in 2017. Most analysts seem to think that dividends will be restarted this year (2018). The company has yet to announce a resumption of dividends.
On a long term basis, this company has done well for shareholders with the 15, 20 and 22 total returns at 14.80%, 21.54% and 40.84% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to capital gains is at 10.99%, 17.19% and 30.44% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to dividends is at 3.81%, 4.35% and 10.40% per year.
Because of the problems in 2017, investors in this stock of the past 5 and 10 years did not do well, with the total loss over 5 years at 7.33% per year and a total return of 0.72% over the past 10 years. The portion of this total return attributed to capital loss over the past 5 and 10 years is 10.13% and 1.89% per year. The portion of the total return attributed to dividends over the past 5 and 10 years is 2.81% and 2.61% per year. Note that investment over 10 year incurred no loss due to dividends.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.79, 9.26 and 11.89. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.69, 9.06 and 11.30. The historical ratios are 6.79, 9.06 and 11.72. The current P/E Ratio is 10.76 based on a stock price of $17.11 and 2018 EPS estimate of $1.59. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $28.43. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.66, 0.91 and 1.11. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.60 based on a stock price of $17.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of $1.94. The current P/B Ratio is 0.76 based on Book Value of $1813M, Book Value per Share of $22.60 and a stock price of $17.11. The current P/B Ratio is some 60% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap. On an absolute basis a P/B Ratio below 1.00 points to a cheap stock that is possibly selling below its breakup value.
I get a year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 5.50. The current P/B Ratio is 3.96 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $347M, Revenue per Share of 4.32 and a stock price of $17.11. The current ratio is some 28% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (4) and Hold (6) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $18.85. This implies a total return of 10.17% all of capital gains based on a stock price of $17.11.
Yausry Bissada talks about Home Capital doing well via The Canadian Press and CBC News. Ryan Goldsman on Motley Fool thinks there are two catalysts for this stock of either Warren Buffet buying the company or the company restarts dividends. The CEO has said that Home Capital Group has turned the corner, but analysts are not so sure. Jesse Mackey on Stock News Times talk about new reports from analysts. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Analysts have various views.
Home Capital Group Inc. is a specialty finance company. The company through its subsidiaries offers residential and commercial mortgage lending, securitization of insured mortgage products, consumer lending, and credit card services. Its web site is here Home Capital Group.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF)... learn more on Friday, 23, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian Bloggers.... learn more on Thursday, February 22, 2018 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Age-Proof by Chatzky and Roizen learn more...
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I own this stock of Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF). I started reviewing this company in September 2009. It is a dividend growth company and was coming up on lists of good dividend paying stocks. It is on some dividend paying companies lists that I look at. Because of the recent problems and cut to dividend I was considering selling this from RSP Account. But perhaps I will not. It is recovering fast and analysts expect dividends to resume in 2018.
The Chairman, CEO and Chief Financial Officer have changed since last year. They have a huge amount of cash on hand. This is equal to some 97% of the stock price.
The dividends where cut after the company paid one dividend in 2017. Most analysts seem to think that dividends will be restarted this year (2018). The company has yet to announce a resumption of dividends.
On a long term basis, this company has done well for shareholders with the 15, 20 and 22 total returns at 14.80%, 21.54% and 40.84% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to capital gains is at 10.99%, 17.19% and 30.44% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to dividends is at 3.81%, 4.35% and 10.40% per year.
Because of the problems in 2017, investors in this stock of the past 5 and 10 years did not do well, with the total loss over 5 years at 7.33% per year and a total return of 0.72% over the past 10 years. The portion of this total return attributed to capital loss over the past 5 and 10 years is 10.13% and 1.89% per year. The portion of the total return attributed to dividends over the past 5 and 10 years is 2.81% and 2.61% per year. Note that investment over 10 year incurred no loss due to dividends.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.79, 9.26 and 11.89. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.69, 9.06 and 11.30. The historical ratios are 6.79, 9.06 and 11.72. The current P/E Ratio is 10.76 based on a stock price of $17.11 and 2018 EPS estimate of $1.59. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $28.43. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.66, 0.91 and 1.11. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.60 based on a stock price of $17.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of $1.94. The current P/B Ratio is 0.76 based on Book Value of $1813M, Book Value per Share of $22.60 and a stock price of $17.11. The current P/B Ratio is some 60% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap. On an absolute basis a P/B Ratio below 1.00 points to a cheap stock that is possibly selling below its breakup value.
I get a year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 5.50. The current P/B Ratio is 3.96 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $347M, Revenue per Share of 4.32 and a stock price of $17.11. The current ratio is some 28% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (4) and Hold (6) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $18.85. This implies a total return of 10.17% all of capital gains based on a stock price of $17.11.
Yausry Bissada talks about Home Capital doing well via The Canadian Press and CBC News. Ryan Goldsman on Motley Fool thinks there are two catalysts for this stock of either Warren Buffet buying the company or the company restarts dividends. The CEO has said that Home Capital Group has turned the corner, but analysts are not so sure. Jesse Mackey on Stock News Times talk about new reports from analysts. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Analysts have various views.
Home Capital Group Inc. is a specialty finance company. The company through its subsidiaries offers residential and commercial mortgage lending, securitization of insured mortgage products, consumer lending, and credit card services. Its web site is here Home Capital Group.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF)... learn more on Friday, 23, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian Bloggers.... learn more on Thursday, February 22, 2018 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Age-Proof by Chatzky and Roizen learn more...
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Monday, February 19, 2018
Emera Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth utility. There is insider buying and most of it was at recent low. Stock price is from cheap to reasonable and below the median. I worry about their debt load. See my spreadsheet on Emera Inc.
I own this stock of Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA). I found this company in Mike Higg's site. Mike's site has a spreadsheet showing Dividend Paying Canadian Growth stocks. It is currently on the TMX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index.
Debt is still too high. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 1.22. This is down from 1.55 of last year. Long Term Debt is down by 11% from last year also. This is the second year with this ratio being very high. Liquidity Ratio is just 0.64. If this ratio is below 1.00 it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Even with Cash Flow less Dividends added in the ratio is just 0.82. This is the second year of very low Liquidity Ratios.
The problem with high debt ratios can make a company vulnerable in a recession. You never know when the next one will occur.
Dividend growth used to be low with the 15, 20 and 24 years dividend growth at 6.24%, 4.96% and 4.45% per year. Dividend increases have been getting higher, with the dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years at a moderate level of 9.37% and 9.01% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2018 and it was for 10%. This would imply that the company feels good about their future prospects.
The dividends on this stock have always been in the good range. The historical median dividend yield is 4.77% with 5 and 10 year median dividend yields at 4.28% and 4.26%. The current dividend yield is even higher with a yield of 5.46%.
Long term returns on this stock have been quite good. The 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 year total returns are at 10.59%, 12.49%, 12.06%, 9.03% and 11.16% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 4.36%, 4.55%, 4.60%, 3.97%, and 5.08%. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 6.22%, 7.94%, 7.46%, 5.06% and 6.08%.
I have held this stock for almost 16 years. My total return is 12.10% per year with 7.31% from capital gains and 4.79% from dividends. I made dividends of $12.20 per share and they have paid 47% of the cost of my stock. For the stock I bought in 2005 I am earning 11.93% yield on my original cost.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.66, 20.13 and 22.60. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 14.45, 16.70 and 19.38. The historical P/E Ratios are 13.41, 15.36 and 17.08. This 10 year and historical ones seem the most reasonable for the utility. The current P/E Ratio is 15.67 based on a stock price of $41.37 and 2018 EPS ratio of $2.64. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.
I get a Graham Price of $40.70. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.11, 1.28 and 1.44. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price of $41.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.84. The current P/B Ratio is 1.48 based on Book Value of $6,380M, Book Value per Share of $27.89 and a stock price of $41.37. The current P/B Ratio is some 19.5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. If the current P/B Ratio was 20% below the 10 year median the stock price would be considered cheap.
The historical median dividend yield is 4.77%. The current dividend yield is 5.46% based on a stock price of $41.37 and dividends of $2.26. The current dividend yield is some 14.5% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.90. The current P/S Ratio is 1.30 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $7,254M, Revenue per Share of $31.71 and a stock price of $41.37. The current P/S Ratio is some 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (7), Hold (4) and Underperform Recommendations (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $50.38. This implies a total return of 27.24% with 21.78% from capital gains and 5.46% from dividends.
Kay Ng of Motley Fool thinks it is time to buy this stock. Emera reported via Business Wire highlights from their fourth quarter of 2017. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Analysts have various views and some worry about utilities being affected by rising interest rates.
Emera Inc. is an energy and services company. The company invests in electricity generation, transmission and distribution as well as gas transmission and utility energy services. Its web site is here Emera Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF)... learn more on Wednesday, February 21, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian Market.... learn more on Tuesday, February 20, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I own this stock of Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA). I found this company in Mike Higg's site. Mike's site has a spreadsheet showing Dividend Paying Canadian Growth stocks. It is currently on the TMX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index.
Debt is still too high. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 1.22. This is down from 1.55 of last year. Long Term Debt is down by 11% from last year also. This is the second year with this ratio being very high. Liquidity Ratio is just 0.64. If this ratio is below 1.00 it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Even with Cash Flow less Dividends added in the ratio is just 0.82. This is the second year of very low Liquidity Ratios.
The problem with high debt ratios can make a company vulnerable in a recession. You never know when the next one will occur.
Dividend growth used to be low with the 15, 20 and 24 years dividend growth at 6.24%, 4.96% and 4.45% per year. Dividend increases have been getting higher, with the dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years at a moderate level of 9.37% and 9.01% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2018 and it was for 10%. This would imply that the company feels good about their future prospects.
The dividends on this stock have always been in the good range. The historical median dividend yield is 4.77% with 5 and 10 year median dividend yields at 4.28% and 4.26%. The current dividend yield is even higher with a yield of 5.46%.
Long term returns on this stock have been quite good. The 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 year total returns are at 10.59%, 12.49%, 12.06%, 9.03% and 11.16% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 4.36%, 4.55%, 4.60%, 3.97%, and 5.08%. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 6.22%, 7.94%, 7.46%, 5.06% and 6.08%.
I have held this stock for almost 16 years. My total return is 12.10% per year with 7.31% from capital gains and 4.79% from dividends. I made dividends of $12.20 per share and they have paid 47% of the cost of my stock. For the stock I bought in 2005 I am earning 11.93% yield on my original cost.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.66, 20.13 and 22.60. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 14.45, 16.70 and 19.38. The historical P/E Ratios are 13.41, 15.36 and 17.08. This 10 year and historical ones seem the most reasonable for the utility. The current P/E Ratio is 15.67 based on a stock price of $41.37 and 2018 EPS ratio of $2.64. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.
I get a Graham Price of $40.70. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.11, 1.28 and 1.44. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price of $41.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.84. The current P/B Ratio is 1.48 based on Book Value of $6,380M, Book Value per Share of $27.89 and a stock price of $41.37. The current P/B Ratio is some 19.5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. If the current P/B Ratio was 20% below the 10 year median the stock price would be considered cheap.
The historical median dividend yield is 4.77%. The current dividend yield is 5.46% based on a stock price of $41.37 and dividends of $2.26. The current dividend yield is some 14.5% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.90. The current P/S Ratio is 1.30 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $7,254M, Revenue per Share of $31.71 and a stock price of $41.37. The current P/S Ratio is some 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (7), Hold (4) and Underperform Recommendations (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $50.38. This implies a total return of 27.24% with 21.78% from capital gains and 5.46% from dividends.
Kay Ng of Motley Fool thinks it is time to buy this stock. Emera reported via Business Wire highlights from their fourth quarter of 2017. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Analysts have various views and some worry about utilities being affected by rising interest rates.
Emera Inc. is an energy and services company. The company invests in electricity generation, transmission and distribution as well as gas transmission and utility energy services. Its web site is here Emera Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF)... learn more on Wednesday, February 21, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian Market.... learn more on Tuesday, February 20, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Friday, February 16, 2018
IGM Financial Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. This stock is showing up as cheap. If you think it is a good company it is time to buy. It has not done well in the immediate past but this seems to be changing. If you do buy you will get a very good dividend (5.56% current yield) while you wait for the stock to recover. See my spreadsheet on IGM Financial Inc.
I do not own this stock of IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) but my son does. I am following this stock because I used to own this stock. The stock was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks and on the other Dividend lists at that time.
This company certainly has not been doing well lately. There has only been one dividend increase in the last 5 years. The dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is the highest at 90% than it has ever been. However, the 5 year coverage is much lower at 75% and DPR is expected to go to 67% in 2018. This long slow recovery from the last recession has been very hard on financials.
This stock used to have good dividend growth. However, dividend growth has suffered after 2008. Over the past 5 and 10 years, dividend growth has been low. Five out of the past 10 years have had no dividend increases and 4 out of the past 5 years have had no any increases. The growth in dividends over the past 5 and 10 years is at 0.9% and 2.4% per year.
Dividend growth over longer periods is better. Dividends have grown by 6.6%, 10.6%, 12.8% and 12.2% per year over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 years. Analysts expect that the company will again start to raise dividends this year. If this happened it would be a good sign that the company believed it was recovering.
Dividend yields are quite high with current yields at 5.56%. Dividend yield medians over the past 5 and 10 years are higher than historical ones. The median dividend yield over the past 5 and10 years is 5.35% and 5.14%. This historical median dividend yield is more moderate at 3.42%.
Not much money has been made by shareholders over the past 5 and 10 years. The total returns over the past 5 and 10 years are 6.38% and 3.25% per year. The portion of the total return attributed to dividends is 5.19% and 4.49% per year over these periods. Over the past 5 years the portion of the total return attributed to capital gain is 1.20% per year. Over the past 10 years there has been a capital loss of 1.20% per year.
For those shareholders who have held this stock for longer periods, the return is mostly much better. The total return over the past 15, 20, 25 and 27 years is 9.04%, 7.82%, 13.62% and 16.97% per year. The portion of the total return over these periods attributable to dividends is 5.45%, 4.42%, 5.63% and 6.75%. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 3.59%, 3.40%, 7.98% and 10.22%. If you hold stocks over the very long term there is bound to be different levels of returns over different periods.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.84, 16.22 and 18.20. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.13, 14.52 and 16.85. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.70, 17.58 and 18.25. These are fairly consistent. The current P/E Ratio is 12.07 based on a stock price of $40.45 and 2018 EPS estimate of $3.35. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $38.26. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.11, 1.26 and 1.41. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.06 based on a stock price of $40.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.44. The current P/B Ratio is 2.08 based on Book Value of $4,675M, Book Value per Share of $19.43 and a stock price of $40.45. The current P/B Ratio is some 15% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
The historical dividend yield is 3.42%. The current dividend yield is 5.56% based on dividends of $2.25 and a stock price of $40.45. The current dividend yield is some 63% above the historical one. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.02. The current P/S Ratio is 2.93 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $3,317M, Revenue per Share of $13.78 and a stock price of $40.45. The current P/S Ratio is some 27% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (1) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $47.00. This implies a total return of 21.76% with 16.19% from capital gains and 5.56% from dividends.
In this press release on Cision IGM talks about their fourth quarterly results and the fact that they were taking a onetime charge again the net earnings. Stan Pace on Stock News Times talks about recent analyst's recommendations on this stock. Cole Patterson likes this stock as a dividend stock on Simply Wall Street. The yield is currently high, but the dividends have only increased by 2.4% over the past 10 years because 4 of the past 5 years have had no dividend increase. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They worry about it selling high fees Mutual Funds and the effect of the new government regulations.
IGM Financial Inc. is a financial services company. It is engaged in the distribution, management and administration of its investment funds. In addition, it also offers mortgage banking and servicing activities. Its web site is here IGM Financial Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA)... learn more on Monday, February 19, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I do not own this stock of IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) but my son does. I am following this stock because I used to own this stock. The stock was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks and on the other Dividend lists at that time.
This company certainly has not been doing well lately. There has only been one dividend increase in the last 5 years. The dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is the highest at 90% than it has ever been. However, the 5 year coverage is much lower at 75% and DPR is expected to go to 67% in 2018. This long slow recovery from the last recession has been very hard on financials.
This stock used to have good dividend growth. However, dividend growth has suffered after 2008. Over the past 5 and 10 years, dividend growth has been low. Five out of the past 10 years have had no dividend increases and 4 out of the past 5 years have had no any increases. The growth in dividends over the past 5 and 10 years is at 0.9% and 2.4% per year.
Dividend growth over longer periods is better. Dividends have grown by 6.6%, 10.6%, 12.8% and 12.2% per year over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 years. Analysts expect that the company will again start to raise dividends this year. If this happened it would be a good sign that the company believed it was recovering.
Dividend yields are quite high with current yields at 5.56%. Dividend yield medians over the past 5 and 10 years are higher than historical ones. The median dividend yield over the past 5 and10 years is 5.35% and 5.14%. This historical median dividend yield is more moderate at 3.42%.
Not much money has been made by shareholders over the past 5 and 10 years. The total returns over the past 5 and 10 years are 6.38% and 3.25% per year. The portion of the total return attributed to dividends is 5.19% and 4.49% per year over these periods. Over the past 5 years the portion of the total return attributed to capital gain is 1.20% per year. Over the past 10 years there has been a capital loss of 1.20% per year.
For those shareholders who have held this stock for longer periods, the return is mostly much better. The total return over the past 15, 20, 25 and 27 years is 9.04%, 7.82%, 13.62% and 16.97% per year. The portion of the total return over these periods attributable to dividends is 5.45%, 4.42%, 5.63% and 6.75%. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 3.59%, 3.40%, 7.98% and 10.22%. If you hold stocks over the very long term there is bound to be different levels of returns over different periods.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.84, 16.22 and 18.20. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.13, 14.52 and 16.85. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.70, 17.58 and 18.25. These are fairly consistent. The current P/E Ratio is 12.07 based on a stock price of $40.45 and 2018 EPS estimate of $3.35. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $38.26. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.11, 1.26 and 1.41. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.06 based on a stock price of $40.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.44. The current P/B Ratio is 2.08 based on Book Value of $4,675M, Book Value per Share of $19.43 and a stock price of $40.45. The current P/B Ratio is some 15% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
The historical dividend yield is 3.42%. The current dividend yield is 5.56% based on dividends of $2.25 and a stock price of $40.45. The current dividend yield is some 63% above the historical one. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.02. The current P/S Ratio is 2.93 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $3,317M, Revenue per Share of $13.78 and a stock price of $40.45. The current P/S Ratio is some 27% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (1) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $47.00. This implies a total return of 21.76% with 16.19% from capital gains and 5.56% from dividends.
In this press release on Cision IGM talks about their fourth quarterly results and the fact that they were taking a onetime charge again the net earnings. Stan Pace on Stock News Times talks about recent analyst's recommendations on this stock. Cole Patterson likes this stock as a dividend stock on Simply Wall Street. The yield is currently high, but the dividends have only increased by 2.4% over the past 10 years because 4 of the past 5 years have had no dividend increase. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They worry about it selling high fees Mutual Funds and the effect of the new government regulations.
IGM Financial Inc. is a financial services company. It is engaged in the distribution, management and administration of its investment funds. In addition, it also offers mortgage banking and servicing activities. Its web site is here IGM Financial Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA)... learn more on Monday, February 19, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Manulife Financial Corp
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Different stock price testing are showing different results, but stock price is probably cheap to reasonable. See my spreadsheet on Manulife Financial Corp.
I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). This stock is some 2.6% of my portfolio. I had been hoping for a better return but so far I have had this stock for almost 13 years and have made 2.74% total return per year. This consists of 0.33% per year in capital gains and 2.41% per year in dividends.
Certainly analysts think that this stock is going do much better going forward. However, this stock has not done well in the past. I have held this stock for over 12 years and have a total return of 2.7% per year. This is really not good. I certainly hope that this is going to change for me.
Dividends were cut by around 48% in 2009. They were then flat for 4 years before the company started to increase them again. The last increase was in 2017 and it was for 10.8%. However, dividends are still not back to the old amount and are some 12% lower still.
The thing is that they are increasing their dividends again and have been doing so since 2014. In looking at dividend growth, the growth is down a bit over the past 10 years but is up for durations of 5, 15 and 18 years. Over the past 10 years dividends are down by 0.7% per year. However, looking at the past 5, 15 and 18 years dividend growth is up by 9.5%, 6.5% and 8.2% per year.
They can currently afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is a bit high at 84%, but the 5 year coverage is 49% and in 2018 the DPR is expected to be lower again at 31%. The DPR for CFPS for 2017 is 10% with 5 year coverage of 9.1%. This is also good.
The long term total returns are rather mixed. I expect this improve in the future when price goes higher again. For people holding this stock for 10 years, they would have a total loss of 2.27% per year with a capital loss of 4.27% per year and dividends 2% per year. The best total return is the last 5 year where total return is at 17.92% per year. The 10 year return includes capital gains of 17.18% per year and dividends of 3.73% per year.
For the total return of over the past 15 years, this is low with a much better total return over 18 years since this stock was demutualized. The 15 and 18 year total returns are 6.07% and 9.77% per year. The portion that is attributed to capital gains is 2.92% and 5.97% per year. The portion that is attributed to dividends is 3.15% and 3.80% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.82, 13.78 and 17.74. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.42, 13.78 and 20.30. The historical ones are 11.52, 14.34 and 16.35. These are all fairly close. The current P/E Ratio is 9.57 based on a stock price of $25.08 and 2018 EPS estimate of $2.62. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $33.37. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.74, 1.01 and 1.16. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.79 based on a stock price of $25.08. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.16. The current P/B Ratio is 1.33 based on Book Value of $37,436M, Book Value per Share of $18.89 and a stock price of $25.08. The current P/B Ratio is some 14.3% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median. However, a P/B Ratio under 1.50 on an absolute basis says a stock is relatively cheap.
I get a historical median dividend yield of 2.69%. The current Dividend yield is 3.51% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $25.08. The current dividend yield is some 30% higher than the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.77. The current P/S Ratio is 0.88 based on 2018 Revenue of $56,801M, Revenue per Share of $28.66 and a stock price of $25.08. The current P/S Ratio is some 13% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (8), Hold (3) and Underperform (1). So these are all over the place. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $31.00. This implies a total return 26.87% with 23.60% from capital gains and 3.27% from dividends based on a current stock price of $25.08.
There is a news item on Cision talking about MFC issuing preferred shares to pay off outstanding debentures. MFC just announced on Cision a dividend increase for 2018 of 7.3%. Jacob Donnelly on Motley Fool shows that he does not know the difference between general and life insurance. They are totally different businesses. They See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They have mixed views on this company and on Life Insurance companies.
Manulife Financial Corp together with its subsidiaries provides individual life insurance and individual and group long-term care insurance services. Its business segments are Asia Division, Canadian Division, U.S. Division, and Corporate and Other. Its web site is here Manulife Financial Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF)... learn more on Friday, February 16, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Good Quality Stocks.... learn more on Thursday, February 15, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). This stock is some 2.6% of my portfolio. I had been hoping for a better return but so far I have had this stock for almost 13 years and have made 2.74% total return per year. This consists of 0.33% per year in capital gains and 2.41% per year in dividends.
Certainly analysts think that this stock is going do much better going forward. However, this stock has not done well in the past. I have held this stock for over 12 years and have a total return of 2.7% per year. This is really not good. I certainly hope that this is going to change for me.
Dividends were cut by around 48% in 2009. They were then flat for 4 years before the company started to increase them again. The last increase was in 2017 and it was for 10.8%. However, dividends are still not back to the old amount and are some 12% lower still.
The thing is that they are increasing their dividends again and have been doing so since 2014. In looking at dividend growth, the growth is down a bit over the past 10 years but is up for durations of 5, 15 and 18 years. Over the past 10 years dividends are down by 0.7% per year. However, looking at the past 5, 15 and 18 years dividend growth is up by 9.5%, 6.5% and 8.2% per year.
They can currently afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is a bit high at 84%, but the 5 year coverage is 49% and in 2018 the DPR is expected to be lower again at 31%. The DPR for CFPS for 2017 is 10% with 5 year coverage of 9.1%. This is also good.
The long term total returns are rather mixed. I expect this improve in the future when price goes higher again. For people holding this stock for 10 years, they would have a total loss of 2.27% per year with a capital loss of 4.27% per year and dividends 2% per year. The best total return is the last 5 year where total return is at 17.92% per year. The 10 year return includes capital gains of 17.18% per year and dividends of 3.73% per year.
For the total return of over the past 15 years, this is low with a much better total return over 18 years since this stock was demutualized. The 15 and 18 year total returns are 6.07% and 9.77% per year. The portion that is attributed to capital gains is 2.92% and 5.97% per year. The portion that is attributed to dividends is 3.15% and 3.80% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.82, 13.78 and 17.74. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.42, 13.78 and 20.30. The historical ones are 11.52, 14.34 and 16.35. These are all fairly close. The current P/E Ratio is 9.57 based on a stock price of $25.08 and 2018 EPS estimate of $2.62. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $33.37. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.74, 1.01 and 1.16. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.79 based on a stock price of $25.08. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.16. The current P/B Ratio is 1.33 based on Book Value of $37,436M, Book Value per Share of $18.89 and a stock price of $25.08. The current P/B Ratio is some 14.3% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median. However, a P/B Ratio under 1.50 on an absolute basis says a stock is relatively cheap.
I get a historical median dividend yield of 2.69%. The current Dividend yield is 3.51% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $25.08. The current dividend yield is some 30% higher than the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.77. The current P/S Ratio is 0.88 based on 2018 Revenue of $56,801M, Revenue per Share of $28.66 and a stock price of $25.08. The current P/S Ratio is some 13% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (8), Hold (3) and Underperform (1). So these are all over the place. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $31.00. This implies a total return 26.87% with 23.60% from capital gains and 3.27% from dividends based on a current stock price of $25.08.
There is a news item on Cision talking about MFC issuing preferred shares to pay off outstanding debentures. MFC just announced on Cision a dividend increase for 2018 of 7.3%. Jacob Donnelly on Motley Fool shows that he does not know the difference between general and life insurance. They are totally different businesses. They See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They have mixed views on this company and on Life Insurance companies.
Manulife Financial Corp together with its subsidiaries provides individual life insurance and individual and group long-term care insurance services. Its business segments are Asia Division, Canadian Division, U.S. Division, and Corporate and Other. Its web site is here Manulife Financial Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF)... learn more on Friday, February 16, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Good Quality Stocks.... learn more on Thursday, February 15, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Monday, February 12, 2018
ARC Resources Ltd
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Energy. It would appear that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, I would think there is a lot of risk in this stock and I do not see the dividend as being safe as they cannot afford what they are paying. Insiders are buying. See my spreadsheet on ARC Resources Ltd.
I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.
Dividends have been reducing and not much capital gains have been made on this stock, but nevertheless, long term investors have made money in the dividends that they did receive. Investors of 15 and 20 years have total returns of 15% and 17% per year. This is interesting. But it happened because the company was an income trust with high dividends. This situation is unlikely to reoccur.
Dividends have only declined over the past 5 to 21 years. Dividends have declined by 12.9%, 12.9%, 6.2%, 4.2% and 4.6% per year over the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 21 years. They cannot afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 was good at 54%. However, the 5 year coverage is 186% and DPR is expected to be above 100% over the next few years. The DPR for CFPS is good. For 2017 it was 29% with 5 year coverage at 40%.
Even though they cannot cover their dividends, no analysts are suggesting that they will but cut dividends again. They have been declining because this company used to be an income trust and as such had quite high dividends. The historical median dividend yield is still very high at 10.21%. Dividends will never again reach the heights that they did prior to 2011 when this company changed from an income to a corporation.
The total returns over the past 15, 20 and 21 years are 15.05%, 16.82% and 13.04% per year. The portion of this total returns attributed to capital gains are 1.33%, 1.81% and 0.66% per year over these periods. The portion attributed to dividends is 13.72%, 15.00%, and 12.38% per year over these periods.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.36, 24.06 and 27.76. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.80, 23.40 and 27.00. The historical ratios are 11.68, 13.51 and 15.47. It would appear that the stock price has not fallen as fast as the EPS over the last while. The current P/E Ratio is 27.41 based on a stock price of $12.61 and 2018 EPS estimate of $0.46. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham price of $10.36. The 10 year low median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.32, 1.62 and 1.87. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.22. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.13. The current P/B Ratio is 1.21 based on Book Value of $3,669M, Book Value per Share of $10.38 and a stock price of $12.61. The current P/B Ratio is some 43% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Because this company used to be an income trust, it will never again hit the dividend yield highs of the past. Since it has been a corporation, the dividend yield median is 4.52%. The current dividend yield is 4.76% based on dividends of $0.60 and stock price of $12.61. The current dividends yield is some 5.3% lower than the median dividend yield since 2011. By this measure, the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.03. The Current P/S Ratio is 3.31 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $1,348M, Revenue per Share of $3.81 and a stock price of $12.61. The current P/S Ratio is some 34% below the 10 year median P/S Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (13) and Hold (4) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is 18.66. This implies a total return of 52.74% with 47.98% from capital gains and 4.76% from dividends.
Chris Newton on Energetic City talks about this company replacing their reserves. Cole Patterson on Simply Wall Street talks about insiders buying. Net insider buyer over the past year is at 0.04%. This is high. Louis Casey on BZ Weekly talks about recent analyst’s recommendations. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Analysts mostly think that this is a good company.
ARC Resources Ltd is and oil and gas company. It is engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of petroleum and gas properties. Its web site is here ARC Resources Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC)... learn more on Wednesday, February 14, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Investing is a Marathon.... learn more on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.
Dividends have been reducing and not much capital gains have been made on this stock, but nevertheless, long term investors have made money in the dividends that they did receive. Investors of 15 and 20 years have total returns of 15% and 17% per year. This is interesting. But it happened because the company was an income trust with high dividends. This situation is unlikely to reoccur.
Dividends have only declined over the past 5 to 21 years. Dividends have declined by 12.9%, 12.9%, 6.2%, 4.2% and 4.6% per year over the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 21 years. They cannot afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 was good at 54%. However, the 5 year coverage is 186% and DPR is expected to be above 100% over the next few years. The DPR for CFPS is good. For 2017 it was 29% with 5 year coverage at 40%.
Even though they cannot cover their dividends, no analysts are suggesting that they will but cut dividends again. They have been declining because this company used to be an income trust and as such had quite high dividends. The historical median dividend yield is still very high at 10.21%. Dividends will never again reach the heights that they did prior to 2011 when this company changed from an income to a corporation.
The total returns over the past 15, 20 and 21 years are 15.05%, 16.82% and 13.04% per year. The portion of this total returns attributed to capital gains are 1.33%, 1.81% and 0.66% per year over these periods. The portion attributed to dividends is 13.72%, 15.00%, and 12.38% per year over these periods.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.36, 24.06 and 27.76. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.80, 23.40 and 27.00. The historical ratios are 11.68, 13.51 and 15.47. It would appear that the stock price has not fallen as fast as the EPS over the last while. The current P/E Ratio is 27.41 based on a stock price of $12.61 and 2018 EPS estimate of $0.46. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham price of $10.36. The 10 year low median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.32, 1.62 and 1.87. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.22. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.13. The current P/B Ratio is 1.21 based on Book Value of $3,669M, Book Value per Share of $10.38 and a stock price of $12.61. The current P/B Ratio is some 43% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Because this company used to be an income trust, it will never again hit the dividend yield highs of the past. Since it has been a corporation, the dividend yield median is 4.52%. The current dividend yield is 4.76% based on dividends of $0.60 and stock price of $12.61. The current dividends yield is some 5.3% lower than the median dividend yield since 2011. By this measure, the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.03. The Current P/S Ratio is 3.31 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $1,348M, Revenue per Share of $3.81 and a stock price of $12.61. The current P/S Ratio is some 34% below the 10 year median P/S Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (13) and Hold (4) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is 18.66. This implies a total return of 52.74% with 47.98% from capital gains and 4.76% from dividends.
Chris Newton on Energetic City talks about this company replacing their reserves. Cole Patterson on Simply Wall Street talks about insiders buying. Net insider buyer over the past year is at 0.04%. This is high. Louis Casey on BZ Weekly talks about recent analyst’s recommendations. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Analysts mostly think that this is a good company.
ARC Resources Ltd is and oil and gas company. It is engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of petroleum and gas properties. Its web site is here ARC Resources Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC)... learn more on Wednesday, February 14, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Investing is a Marathon.... learn more on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Friday, February 9, 2018
Absolute Software Corporation
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth tech. A lot of stock price testing cannot be done due to earnings losses and a negative book value. What I can do shows that the stock is reasonable in a P/S Ratio test. Currently the dividend is not in danger because even though the book value is negative, the company does have lots of cash. Current cash is some 14.5% of the stock price. See my spreadsheet on Absolute Software Corporation .
I do not own this stock of Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF). The Motley Fool published an article by Matt DiLallo in December 2014 called The 10 Best Stocks in Canada. It is basically a list of the best-performing Canadian stocks of the past decade. I got this stock from this list.
The problem I see with this stock is that the book value is negative. They really should not be paying out a dividend with a negative book value. Although I must admit the company has lots of cash. At the end of June 2017 the cash was equal to 13.8% of the stock's price. Over the past 5 year the median percentage of cash covering the stock price was 13%. This is relatively quite high.
Dividend yields are moderate to good with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is 4.62% with the median dividend yield at 3.58%. The dividend growth has been 12.5% per year over the past 4 years. Dividends were only started in 2013.
The stock has only been around since 2000. So I have total return for durations of 5, 10, 15 and 17 years. Total return is mixed with those buying this stock 10 years ago taking a loss, but other durations are fine. The total return for durations of 5, 15 and 17 years are 10.72%, 29.92% and 18.91% per year with capital gain at 6.17%, 27.49% and 17.25% per year and dividends at4.55%, 2.43% and 1.66% per year. (Note dividends are only included in last 4 years.)
For investor who has had this stock for 10 years, they have suffered a loss because of a big spike up in stock price in 2007. So for them there is a total negative return of 7.92% per year, with capital loss at 9.34% per year and dividends at 1.42% per year.
You cannot do any Price/Earnings per Share Ratio testing on this stock. Since they had so many years with earnings losses, most P/E Ratios are negative. The current P/E Ratio is 279.89 based on a stock price of $6.93 CDN$ and 2018 EPS estimate of $0.025 CDN$ ($.02 US$). The P/E Ratio for 2019 is not quite so bad at 55.98 and it reaches a moderate 15.99 in 2020 as earnings estimates for 2019 and 2020 are $0.26 CDN$ ($0.12 US$) and $0.48 CDN$ ($35 US$).
I can do no testing using the Graham Price because with this stock either the earnings are negative or the book value is negative. With either of these negative, Graham Price cannot be calculated. I cannot do any Price/Book Value Ratio testing when the Book Value is negative.
I get a historical median dividend yield of 3.58%. Mind you there is not much in historical here as dividends only started in 2013. The current dividend yield is 4.62% based on dividends of $0.32 CDN$ and a stock price of $6.93 CDN$. The current dividend yield is some 28% above the historical median dividend yield. This testing would imply that the stock price is relatively cheap.
This company reports in US dollars. The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.85 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 2.40 U$ based on 2018 Revenue of $94.5 US$, Revenue per Share of $2.37 US$ and a stock price of $5.68 US$. The current P/S Ratio is some 15.8% lower than the 10 year median P/S Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is probably the best test for this stock.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (1) and Hold (7). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $6.32 US$ or $7.03 CDN$. This implies a total return of 14.52% with 12.90% from capital gains and 4.62% from dividends.
Staff Writer at Akron Register correctly shows that the Book to Market Value is negative. Stefani Robinson on True Blue Tribune talks about some recent analysts ratings. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. One analyst said it was a short term pick.
Absolute Software Corp provides endpoint security and data risk management solutions for commercial, healthcare, education and government customers, tablets and smartphones. Its web site is here Absolute Software Corporation.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF)... learn more on Monday, February 12, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I do not own this stock of Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF). The Motley Fool published an article by Matt DiLallo in December 2014 called The 10 Best Stocks in Canada. It is basically a list of the best-performing Canadian stocks of the past decade. I got this stock from this list.
The problem I see with this stock is that the book value is negative. They really should not be paying out a dividend with a negative book value. Although I must admit the company has lots of cash. At the end of June 2017 the cash was equal to 13.8% of the stock's price. Over the past 5 year the median percentage of cash covering the stock price was 13%. This is relatively quite high.
Dividend yields are moderate to good with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is 4.62% with the median dividend yield at 3.58%. The dividend growth has been 12.5% per year over the past 4 years. Dividends were only started in 2013.
The stock has only been around since 2000. So I have total return for durations of 5, 10, 15 and 17 years. Total return is mixed with those buying this stock 10 years ago taking a loss, but other durations are fine. The total return for durations of 5, 15 and 17 years are 10.72%, 29.92% and 18.91% per year with capital gain at 6.17%, 27.49% and 17.25% per year and dividends at4.55%, 2.43% and 1.66% per year. (Note dividends are only included in last 4 years.)
For investor who has had this stock for 10 years, they have suffered a loss because of a big spike up in stock price in 2007. So for them there is a total negative return of 7.92% per year, with capital loss at 9.34% per year and dividends at 1.42% per year.
You cannot do any Price/Earnings per Share Ratio testing on this stock. Since they had so many years with earnings losses, most P/E Ratios are negative. The current P/E Ratio is 279.89 based on a stock price of $6.93 CDN$ and 2018 EPS estimate of $0.025 CDN$ ($.02 US$). The P/E Ratio for 2019 is not quite so bad at 55.98 and it reaches a moderate 15.99 in 2020 as earnings estimates for 2019 and 2020 are $0.26 CDN$ ($0.12 US$) and $0.48 CDN$ ($35 US$).
I can do no testing using the Graham Price because with this stock either the earnings are negative or the book value is negative. With either of these negative, Graham Price cannot be calculated. I cannot do any Price/Book Value Ratio testing when the Book Value is negative.
I get a historical median dividend yield of 3.58%. Mind you there is not much in historical here as dividends only started in 2013. The current dividend yield is 4.62% based on dividends of $0.32 CDN$ and a stock price of $6.93 CDN$. The current dividend yield is some 28% above the historical median dividend yield. This testing would imply that the stock price is relatively cheap.
This company reports in US dollars. The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.85 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 2.40 U$ based on 2018 Revenue of $94.5 US$, Revenue per Share of $2.37 US$ and a stock price of $5.68 US$. The current P/S Ratio is some 15.8% lower than the 10 year median P/S Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is probably the best test for this stock.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (1) and Hold (7). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $6.32 US$ or $7.03 CDN$. This implies a total return of 14.52% with 12.90% from capital gains and 4.62% from dividends.
Staff Writer at Akron Register correctly shows that the Book to Market Value is negative. Stefani Robinson on True Blue Tribune talks about some recent analysts ratings. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. One analyst said it was a short term pick.
Absolute Software Corp provides endpoint security and data risk management solutions for commercial, healthcare, education and government customers, tablets and smartphones. Its web site is here Absolute Software Corporation.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF)... learn more on Monday, February 12, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Canadian National Railway
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth Industrial. Stock price would have to come down to around $80.00 (a18% drop) to pass all stock price testing test but the P/B Ratio test. To pass that test the price needs to go to around $74.00 (a24% drop). On a lot of measures this stock is currently too high. See my spreadsheet on Canadian National Railway.
This stock is cheap by the dividend yield as there has been nice dividend growth lately. Seldom do companies put up dividends higher than they can afford in the future. With dividend yield testing you are looking at current data. However, the P/B Ratio at 4.35 is high. Also the Dividend Payout Ratio of 34.5% expected for 2018 is higher than it has ever been. But it is still lower than the median for industrial stocks. It is rather unclear if this stock price is too high or not.
I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009.
I have done quite well with this stock. I have had it for just over 12 years and I have made a total return of 16.85% per year with 14.93% per year from capital gains and 1.92% per year from dividends. My dividends have covered 50% of the cost of my stock. For the stock I bought in 2005, I am making a yield of 10.1% on my original cost. For the stock I bought in 2009, I am making a yield of 8.2% on my original cost.
Dividends yields are low and the dividend growth is good. I consider under2% to be a low yield and growth over 15% to be a good growth. The current dividend is 1.87%; the historical median dividend yield is 1.57% with the 5 and 10 year median dividend yield at 1.61% and 1.78%.
I have dividend growth for the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 21 years. They are all above 15% except for the 10 year period and it is close. The dividend growth for the past5, 10, 15, 20 and 21 years are 17.08%, 14.66%, 17.69%, 16.59% and 16.51% per year. This is a compounded rate of growth.
This stock has had good long term total returns. The total returns for the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 21 years are 20.01%, 17.91%, 18.26%, 17.55% and 17.87% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 18.07%, 16.08%, 16.42%, 15.84% and 16.21% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 1.93%, 1.83%, 1.84%, 1.71%, and 1.75% per year.
A person who bought this stock when it went public would have earned a total return of 17.87% per year. They would probably be earning a yield on their original investment of 27.4% and their dividends would have covered their cost by 193%. It would have been a very good investment.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.78, 17.28 and 19.90. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.32, 13.62 and 15.18. The historical ratios are 11.87, 13.62 and 14.99. The current P/E Ratio is 18.46 based on a stock price of $97.48 and a 2018 EPS estimate of $5.28. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price might be on the high side and relatively expensive.
I get a Graham price of $51.62. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.32, 1.51 and 1.66. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.89 based on a stock price of $97.48. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.33. The current P/B Ratio is 4.35 based on Book Value of $16,656M, Book Value per Share of $22.43 and a stock price of $97.48. A P/B Ratio of 4.35 is a high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.57%. The current dividend yield is 1.87% based on dividends of $1.82 and a stock price of $97.48. This current dividend yield is some 18.9% higher than the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and bellow the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 4.34. The current P/S Ratio is 5.28 based on 2018 Revenue of $13,712M, Revenue per Share of $18.46 and a stock price of $97.48. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (9) and Hold (13). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $106.08. This implies a total return of $10.69% with 8.82% from capital gains and 1.87% from dividends.
Jacob Donnelly of Motley Fool likes this stock. Ross Marowits, The Canadian Press in an article on CTV News talks about the company rising dividends by 10% as it expects double digit earnings growth over the next 5 years. Nasdaq Journal Staff on Nasdaq Journal says that the PEG is 1.59 on this stock which means that the stock is overbought (or relatively high). See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They like to stock, but most also mentioned NAFTA. However, if the NAFTA discussion fail analyst think that this would only be a short term set back.
Canadian National Railway Co is engaged in the transport sector. Its primary occupation is the rail and related transportation business. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway .
The last stock I wrote about was about was Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF)... learn more on Friday, February 9, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy February 2018... learn more on Thursday, February 8, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
This stock is cheap by the dividend yield as there has been nice dividend growth lately. Seldom do companies put up dividends higher than they can afford in the future. With dividend yield testing you are looking at current data. However, the P/B Ratio at 4.35 is high. Also the Dividend Payout Ratio of 34.5% expected for 2018 is higher than it has ever been. But it is still lower than the median for industrial stocks. It is rather unclear if this stock price is too high or not.
I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009.
I have done quite well with this stock. I have had it for just over 12 years and I have made a total return of 16.85% per year with 14.93% per year from capital gains and 1.92% per year from dividends. My dividends have covered 50% of the cost of my stock. For the stock I bought in 2005, I am making a yield of 10.1% on my original cost. For the stock I bought in 2009, I am making a yield of 8.2% on my original cost.
Dividends yields are low and the dividend growth is good. I consider under2% to be a low yield and growth over 15% to be a good growth. The current dividend is 1.87%; the historical median dividend yield is 1.57% with the 5 and 10 year median dividend yield at 1.61% and 1.78%.
I have dividend growth for the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 21 years. They are all above 15% except for the 10 year period and it is close. The dividend growth for the past5, 10, 15, 20 and 21 years are 17.08%, 14.66%, 17.69%, 16.59% and 16.51% per year. This is a compounded rate of growth.
This stock has had good long term total returns. The total returns for the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 21 years are 20.01%, 17.91%, 18.26%, 17.55% and 17.87% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 18.07%, 16.08%, 16.42%, 15.84% and 16.21% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 1.93%, 1.83%, 1.84%, 1.71%, and 1.75% per year.
A person who bought this stock when it went public would have earned a total return of 17.87% per year. They would probably be earning a yield on their original investment of 27.4% and their dividends would have covered their cost by 193%. It would have been a very good investment.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.78, 17.28 and 19.90. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.32, 13.62 and 15.18. The historical ratios are 11.87, 13.62 and 14.99. The current P/E Ratio is 18.46 based on a stock price of $97.48 and a 2018 EPS estimate of $5.28. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price might be on the high side and relatively expensive.
I get a Graham price of $51.62. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.32, 1.51 and 1.66. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.89 based on a stock price of $97.48. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.33. The current P/B Ratio is 4.35 based on Book Value of $16,656M, Book Value per Share of $22.43 and a stock price of $97.48. A P/B Ratio of 4.35 is a high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.57%. The current dividend yield is 1.87% based on dividends of $1.82 and a stock price of $97.48. This current dividend yield is some 18.9% higher than the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and bellow the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 4.34. The current P/S Ratio is 5.28 based on 2018 Revenue of $13,712M, Revenue per Share of $18.46 and a stock price of $97.48. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (9) and Hold (13). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $106.08. This implies a total return of $10.69% with 8.82% from capital gains and 1.87% from dividends.
Jacob Donnelly of Motley Fool likes this stock. Ross Marowits, The Canadian Press in an article on CTV News talks about the company rising dividends by 10% as it expects double digit earnings growth over the next 5 years. Nasdaq Journal Staff on Nasdaq Journal says that the PEG is 1.59 on this stock which means that the stock is overbought (or relatively high). See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They like to stock, but most also mentioned NAFTA. However, if the NAFTA discussion fail analyst think that this would only be a short term set back.
Canadian National Railway Co is engaged in the transport sector. Its primary occupation is the rail and related transportation business. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway .
The last stock I wrote about was about was Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF)... learn more on Friday, February 9, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy February 2018... learn more on Thursday, February 8, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Monday, February 5, 2018
Exco Technologies Ltd
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Industrial stocks tend to be more volatile that other stocks, but this one is cheap to reasonable so if you can stand the volatility this would be a good dividend growth stock to own. You would buy for diversification reasons. See my spreadsheet on Exco Technologies Ltd .
I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.
This stock hit a peak in July of 2015 and the stock price has been travelling south ever since. This was probably because they are in Auto Parts industry and people are worried about this industry now. Insiders were selling last year, but this year they are buying.
Dividend yields are low to moderate with good dividend increases. As the stock price has stalled and declined you get higher dividend yields. The historical median dividend yield is just 1.95% as is the 5 year median dividend yield. However, the 10 year dividend yield is in the moderate range of 2.89%, as is the current dividend yield of 3.47%.
Dividends were only started in 2003. So I have just 5, 10 and 14 Years of data for this company for dividend growth. For the last periods the dividend growth is good, and the first period the dividend growth is moderate. Dividend growth over the past 5, 10 and 14 years is at 18.09%, 17.85% and 13.92%. I consider dividend growth to be moderate between 8% and 15% growth and over 15% to be good growth.
This stock has been on the TSX since 1992. Therefore I have 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 year data for stock growth. This stock has done well lately and did not badly over the past 25 years, but the total return over the past 15 and 20 years is low. The 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 year total returns are at 13.51%, 12.32%, 4.10%, 4.5% and 9.36% per year.
The portion of the total return attributable to capital gains is at 10.45%, 9.91%, 2.70%, 3.43% and 8.24% over the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is 3.06%, 2.41%, 1.40%, 1.07% and .1.12%. This is an industrial stock so it can have its ups and downs.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for 2017 is at 31% with 5 year coverage of 27%. The DPR for CFPS is also good with DPR for CFPS at 20% for 2017 and 5 year coverage of 18.6%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.40, 13.17 and 15.68. The corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios are 8.39, 10.21 and 12.46. The corresponding historical P/E Ratios are 9.80, 13.51 and 16.45. The current P/E Ratio is 8.60 based on a stock price of $9.80 and EPS estimate of $1.14 for 2018. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $13.58. The 10 year low, median and high median Price Graham price ratios are 063, 0.78 and 1.03. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.72 based on a stock price of $9.80. This stock price testing suggests that the price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share is 1.28. The current P/B Ratio is 1.36 based on a stock price of $9.80, Book Value of $305M and Book Value per Share of $7.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.95%. The current dividend yield is 3.42% a value some 78% higher. The current dividend is based on dividends of $0.34 and a stock price of $9.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.80. The current P/S Ratio is 0.73 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $568M, Revenue per Share of $13.38 and a stock price of $9.80. The current P/S Ratio is some 8.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (2) and Hold (4). The 12 month stock price consensus is $11.67. The consensus would be a Hold. This implies a total return of 22.55% with 19.08% capital time gains and 3.47% from dividends with 19.08% from capital gains.
Kay Ng of Motley Fool likes this company because it is committed to rising dividends. Lenox Staff analysis show this company is a favourable light at Lenox Ledger. For example it has a low score for the Gross Margin Score which shows it has stability and growth. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Mostly, the analysts like this stock.
Exco Technologies Ltd is a designer, developer and manufacturer of dies, moulds, components and assemblies, and consumable equipment for the die-cast, extrusion, and automotive industries. Its web site is here Exco Technologies Ltd .
The last stock I wrote about was about was AGF Management Ltd. (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI)... learn more on Wednesday, February 7, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks February 2018... learn more on Tuesday, February 6, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.
This stock hit a peak in July of 2015 and the stock price has been travelling south ever since. This was probably because they are in Auto Parts industry and people are worried about this industry now. Insiders were selling last year, but this year they are buying.
Dividend yields are low to moderate with good dividend increases. As the stock price has stalled and declined you get higher dividend yields. The historical median dividend yield is just 1.95% as is the 5 year median dividend yield. However, the 10 year dividend yield is in the moderate range of 2.89%, as is the current dividend yield of 3.47%.
Dividends were only started in 2003. So I have just 5, 10 and 14 Years of data for this company for dividend growth. For the last periods the dividend growth is good, and the first period the dividend growth is moderate. Dividend growth over the past 5, 10 and 14 years is at 18.09%, 17.85% and 13.92%. I consider dividend growth to be moderate between 8% and 15% growth and over 15% to be good growth.
This stock has been on the TSX since 1992. Therefore I have 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 year data for stock growth. This stock has done well lately and did not badly over the past 25 years, but the total return over the past 15 and 20 years is low. The 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 year total returns are at 13.51%, 12.32%, 4.10%, 4.5% and 9.36% per year.
The portion of the total return attributable to capital gains is at 10.45%, 9.91%, 2.70%, 3.43% and 8.24% over the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is 3.06%, 2.41%, 1.40%, 1.07% and .1.12%. This is an industrial stock so it can have its ups and downs.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for 2017 is at 31% with 5 year coverage of 27%. The DPR for CFPS is also good with DPR for CFPS at 20% for 2017 and 5 year coverage of 18.6%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.40, 13.17 and 15.68. The corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios are 8.39, 10.21 and 12.46. The corresponding historical P/E Ratios are 9.80, 13.51 and 16.45. The current P/E Ratio is 8.60 based on a stock price of $9.80 and EPS estimate of $1.14 for 2018. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $13.58. The 10 year low, median and high median Price Graham price ratios are 063, 0.78 and 1.03. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.72 based on a stock price of $9.80. This stock price testing suggests that the price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share is 1.28. The current P/B Ratio is 1.36 based on a stock price of $9.80, Book Value of $305M and Book Value per Share of $7.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.95%. The current dividend yield is 3.42% a value some 78% higher. The current dividend is based on dividends of $0.34 and a stock price of $9.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.80. The current P/S Ratio is 0.73 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $568M, Revenue per Share of $13.38 and a stock price of $9.80. The current P/S Ratio is some 8.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (2) and Hold (4). The 12 month stock price consensus is $11.67. The consensus would be a Hold. This implies a total return of 22.55% with 19.08% capital time gains and 3.47% from dividends with 19.08% from capital gains.
Kay Ng of Motley Fool likes this company because it is committed to rising dividends. Lenox Staff analysis show this company is a favourable light at Lenox Ledger. For example it has a low score for the Gross Margin Score which shows it has stability and growth. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Mostly, the analysts like this stock.
Exco Technologies Ltd is a designer, developer and manufacturer of dies, moulds, components and assemblies, and consumable equipment for the die-cast, extrusion, and automotive industries. Its web site is here Exco Technologies Ltd .
The last stock I wrote about was about was AGF Management Ltd. (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI)... learn more on Wednesday, February 7, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks February 2018... learn more on Tuesday, February 6, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Friday, February 2, 2018
AGF Management Ltd
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. I think that this stock is cheap. However, there are risks because it is a turn-around situation. There is the possibility that this stock will never be a dividend growth stock again. However, if it can make itself a dividend growth stocks you could get a very nice capital gain from buying it while very cheap. See my spreadsheet on AGF Management Ltd.
I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF). I used to own this stock. I bought it in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.
They waited far too long to cut dividends. As the price got depressed the yield got higher topping out around 12.8%. The current dividend yield is high at 4.22% with the 5 year and 10 year median yield also quite high at 6.94% and 6.90%. The historical median is in the moderate rate at 2.97%.
This stock has not been doing well for some time. I used to own it but started to sell in 2006 and sold all my shares by 2008. I made a total return of 2.08% per year all in dividends. If I had held this stock to today I would have had a loss of some 6.5% per year or some 66% of my investment.
This used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one since 2012. They started to cut the dividend in 2015. I have data going back some 25 years and dividends have declined over the past 5 and 10 years at the rate of 21.6% and 8.5% per year. Looking at longer term the dividends have increased over the past 15, 20 and 25 years at the low rates of 1.5%, 6.9% and 6.9% per year. Analysts do not expect any dividend increases over the next couple of year.
They are buying back shares. Shares have been declining since 2012. The shares have been declining by 2.4% and 1.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This means to judge the increase or decrease in things like earnings and revenue, you need to look at Net Income and Revenue and not EPS or Revenue per Share. The Net Income has been declining by 0.15% and 11.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 3.1% and down by 10.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The whole point here is that when shares are decreasing and investors are using EPS to judge growth they can be misled. You need to reduce the EPS growth by the same rate as decline in shares outstanding.
This used to be a great company. That is why I had shares in it in the past. The worse total return period is for the past 10 years where the total return has declined by 7.04% per year. Other years have a gain with total return for the past 5, 15, 20 and 25 years at 3.57%, 2.06%, 5.53% and 16.01% per year. In most years this is because of dividends.
For all periods but for the 25 year period, the stock price has declined. The stock price has declined over the past 5, 10, 15 and 20 years by 3.78%, 11.92%, 4.17% and 0.56% per year. For the 25 year period the stock price has increase by 6.67% per year. You can see the value of investing in dividend stocks from this.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.62, 12.67 and 16.72. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 9.54, 13.31 and 16.97. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.21, 15.43 and 18.96. It is not surprising that the historical ratios are higher because of the problems this stock has been in for the last while. The current P/E Ratio is 12.03 based on a stock price of $7.58 and 2018 EPS estimate of $0.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $12.96. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.55, 0.85 and 0.99. These are all quite low. Any P/GP Ratio below 1.00 says that the stock is cheap. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.05. The current P/B Ratio is 0.64 based on Book Value of $937M, Book Value per Share of $11.85 and a stock price of $7.58. The current P/B Ratio is some 39% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When this ratio is lower than 1.00 it means that the stock is selling below the book price and is very cheap. The book value is the theoretical break up price of a stock. So in theory if a stock is selling before the Book Value it is selling below the value of the company.
The historical median dividend yield is 2.97%. The current dividend yield is 4.22% based on dividends of $0.32 and a stock price of $7.58. This current dividend yield is some 42% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (3) and Hold (5) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $8.81 which implies a total return of 20.24% with 4.22% from dividends and 16.23% from capital gains based on a stock price of $7.58.
This article via NASDAQ on Global New Wire talks about AGF buying back shares. Financial News Staff at FLBC News talk about the P/B Ratio being very low. Will Ashworth of Motley Fool likes this stock. See what analysts think of this stock on Stock Chase. Mostly they see the company as a turn-around situation.
AGF Management Ltd is an asset management company that provides investment management for mutual funds, institutions and corporations, as well as net-worth clients. It has operations in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Asia. Its web site is here AGF Management Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF)... learn more on Monday, February 5, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF). I used to own this stock. I bought it in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.
They waited far too long to cut dividends. As the price got depressed the yield got higher topping out around 12.8%. The current dividend yield is high at 4.22% with the 5 year and 10 year median yield also quite high at 6.94% and 6.90%. The historical median is in the moderate rate at 2.97%.
This stock has not been doing well for some time. I used to own it but started to sell in 2006 and sold all my shares by 2008. I made a total return of 2.08% per year all in dividends. If I had held this stock to today I would have had a loss of some 6.5% per year or some 66% of my investment.
This used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one since 2012. They started to cut the dividend in 2015. I have data going back some 25 years and dividends have declined over the past 5 and 10 years at the rate of 21.6% and 8.5% per year. Looking at longer term the dividends have increased over the past 15, 20 and 25 years at the low rates of 1.5%, 6.9% and 6.9% per year. Analysts do not expect any dividend increases over the next couple of year.
They are buying back shares. Shares have been declining since 2012. The shares have been declining by 2.4% and 1.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This means to judge the increase or decrease in things like earnings and revenue, you need to look at Net Income and Revenue and not EPS or Revenue per Share. The Net Income has been declining by 0.15% and 11.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 3.1% and down by 10.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The whole point here is that when shares are decreasing and investors are using EPS to judge growth they can be misled. You need to reduce the EPS growth by the same rate as decline in shares outstanding.
This used to be a great company. That is why I had shares in it in the past. The worse total return period is for the past 10 years where the total return has declined by 7.04% per year. Other years have a gain with total return for the past 5, 15, 20 and 25 years at 3.57%, 2.06%, 5.53% and 16.01% per year. In most years this is because of dividends.
For all periods but for the 25 year period, the stock price has declined. The stock price has declined over the past 5, 10, 15 and 20 years by 3.78%, 11.92%, 4.17% and 0.56% per year. For the 25 year period the stock price has increase by 6.67% per year. You can see the value of investing in dividend stocks from this.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.62, 12.67 and 16.72. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 9.54, 13.31 and 16.97. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.21, 15.43 and 18.96. It is not surprising that the historical ratios are higher because of the problems this stock has been in for the last while. The current P/E Ratio is 12.03 based on a stock price of $7.58 and 2018 EPS estimate of $0.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $12.96. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.55, 0.85 and 0.99. These are all quite low. Any P/GP Ratio below 1.00 says that the stock is cheap. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.05. The current P/B Ratio is 0.64 based on Book Value of $937M, Book Value per Share of $11.85 and a stock price of $7.58. The current P/B Ratio is some 39% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When this ratio is lower than 1.00 it means that the stock is selling below the book price and is very cheap. The book value is the theoretical break up price of a stock. So in theory if a stock is selling before the Book Value it is selling below the value of the company.
The historical median dividend yield is 2.97%. The current dividend yield is 4.22% based on dividends of $0.32 and a stock price of $7.58. This current dividend yield is some 42% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (3) and Hold (5) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $8.81 which implies a total return of 20.24% with 4.22% from dividends and 16.23% from capital gains based on a stock price of $7.58.
This article via NASDAQ on Global New Wire talks about AGF buying back shares. Financial News Staff at FLBC News talk about the P/B Ratio being very low. Will Ashworth of Motley Fool likes this stock. See what analysts think of this stock on Stock Chase. Mostly they see the company as a turn-around situation.
AGF Management Ltd is an asset management company that provides investment management for mutual funds, institutions and corporations, as well as net-worth clients. It has operations in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Asia. Its web site is here AGF Management Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF)... learn more on Monday, February 5, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
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