CCL Industries Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Still expensive. This stock seems to have lost its momentum. When stock prices rise because of momentum, they will stop having momentum at some point. However, momentum can last a long time. The whole market seems to have had trouble today. It will be interesting to see what happens next week. See my spreadsheet on CCL Industries Inc.

I do not own this stock of CCL Industries Inc. (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF). In 2009 I read a favorable report on this stock of which I had also heard before. This is also a dividend paying stock and in 2009 it was on Dividend Achievers list.

The dividend yield used to be moderate but now it is low. The dividend increases are moderate. The current dividend is very low at just 0.88%. This is based on dividends of $2.00 and a stock price of $227.38. The 5 year median dividend yield is low at 1.32%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate at 2.13%.

The dividends are so low because the stock price has really taken off lately. Personally I do not buy dividend stock with dividend yields below 1%. I really question if they are truly dividend stocks at all. The dividend growth of the past 5 and 10 years is at 15.6% and 14.1% per year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios have been moderate but have become low recently. The DPR for EPS was 17.9% in 2015. This is low. It is expected to be 20% in 2016 and 17% in 2017. The 5 year median DPR for EPS was moderate of 27.7%. The DPR for CFPS is low and has always been rather low. The DPR for CFPS was 8.6% in 2015 and has a 5 year median of 9.8%.

The stock has momentum. The total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is 50.92% and 24.32% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 49.16% and 23.14%. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 1.76% and 1.19%. As you can see it is mostly capital gains.

While growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow has been rather good, it has not match the growth in the stock price. Revenue per Share is up 19.3% and 9.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 31.55 and 5.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is up by 28% and 15.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.58, 16.53 and 20.49. The corresponding 10 year values are 12.17, 14.89 and 17.76. The historical values are 11.34, 13.95 and 15.03. Price rise is mainly due to rise in P/E Ratio. The current P/E Ratio is 22.51 based on 2016 EPS estimate of $10.10 and a stock price of $227.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The EPS estimate for 2016 is a 20% rise from last year. However, the EPS over the past 12 months to the end of the third quarter is $9.04, an increase of 7.9% over last year's EPS. The third quarter EPS for 2016 is $7.01 compared to $6.35 of the third quarter of 2015. This is a 10.4% increase. The EPS 2016 estimate seems reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $106.28. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.80, 0.94 and 1.09. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.14 based on a stock price of $227.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of $1.46. The current P/B Ratio is 4.57 based on BVPS of $49.70 and a stock price of $227.38. The current P/B Ratio is some 213% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median Dividend Yield of 2.13%. The current Dividend Yield is 0.88% based on dividends of $2.00 and a stock price of $227.38. The current Dividend Yield is some 59% lower than the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold. Most are a Buy Recommendation and the consensus is a Buy recommendation. The 12 month consensus stock price if $283.14. This implies a total return of 25.40% with 24.52% from capital gains and 0.88% from dividends. However, with the market seeming to crash today, who knows.

Andrew Walz on Baseball News Source talks about Scotiabank cutting their consensus price from $275 to $270. See highlights from the third quarterly results on Market Wired. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase.

I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Encana Corp. (TSX-ECA, NYSE-ECA)... learn more on November 14, 2016 around 5 pm.

A global specialty packaging pioneer, CCL is the largest label company in the world and provides innovative solutions to the Home & Personal Care, Premium Food & Beverage, Healthcare & Specialty, Automotive & Durables and Consumer markets worldwide. The Company is divided into three reporting segments: CCL Label, CCL Container and its consumer arm, Avery. Its web site is here CCL Industries Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.