Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Relatively Expensive. It has had a big run up lately. It would seem that the growth expected due to Ontario law changes has already happened for the stock price. Perhaps it is too late to buy? See my spreadsheet on Andrew Peller Ltd.
I do not own this stock of Andrew Peller Ltd. (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF), but I used to. This stock was on Mike Higgs' dividend growth stock list. I owned this stock as Andres Wines Ltd between 1996 and 2000.
The first thing I noticed is that the stock price has almost doubled since last year when it was around $17.90 and it now around $30.50. This stock has never had such a run up in price before. Groceries stores will be able to stock Ontario wines starting this fall. The Ontario government is going to increase access to wines. This is about time they did this. This is probably the reason that this company has been hitting all-time highs. I certainly missed this great opportunity.
Until recently dividends were moderate with moderate growth. The current dividend is 1.61%. This is an historical low and this implies that the stock price is high. The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.04% and the historical median dividend yield is 3.58%. Dividends have grown at 4.9% and 6.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was for 16.7% and occurred in 2016.
I have dividend information going back 26 years. Dividends were fairly flat until 2007 when they started to increase their dividends. Increases have not been for every year but dividends have not decreased either.
If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago, the dividends paid would have covered 21%, 35% and 105% of the stock's purchase price. If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago your dividend yield on your original purchase price would be 4.8%, 4.5% or 10.3%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios has generally been good. The DPR for EPS for 2016 is 30% and for CFPS 16%. They can afford their dividends. Note that the end of their financial year is the end of March each year, so the current financial year I am dealing with is March 31, 2016.
This stock's capital gain over the past 5 years is at 26.8%. Over the past 5 years Revenue is up by 4.75, EPS is up by 13% and Cash Flow is up by 5.5%. The Dividend yield is at an all-time low. What this all points to, is that the market expects future great growth for this company.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.09, 12.71 and 14.26. The corresponding 10 year values are 10.52, 11.98 and 12.01. The historical values are 10.58, 12.71 and 14.26. The current P/E Ratio is 19.81 based on 2016 EPS for the 12 months to the end of the second quarter of $1.54 and a stock price of $30.50 Considering the big stock price run up lately, this P/E is not that high. However, this testing points to the stock price being relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $19.98. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.71, 0.87 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.53 based on a stock price of $30.50. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 2.63 based on BVPS of $11.52 and a stock price of $30.50. The current ratio is some 93% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical low dividend yield of 2.07%. The current dividend yield of 1.61% is based on dividends of $0.49 and a stock price of $30.50. This is some 22% lower than this historical low. This certainly suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I cannot find any analyst that follows this stock.
In this August Press Release on Market Wired the company is recommending a 3 to 1 stock split. Ryan Modesto in a report earlier this year on G&M talked about Ontario government looking to increase access to wines and spirits with this company benefiting from this. Allison McNeely of the Ontario Region The Record has written a good report on changes to Ontario laws regarding wines.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Superior Plus Corp. (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Badger Daylighting Ltd. (TSX-BAD, OTC- BADFF)... learn more on Friday, September 2, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about the TTC Budget ... learn more on Thursday, September 2, 2016 around 5 pm.
Andrew Peller Limited is a leading producer and marketer of quality wines in Canada. With wineries in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the Company markets wines produced
from grapes grown in Ontario's Niagara Peninsula, British Columbia's Okanagan and Similkameen Valleys and vineyards around the world. They also market craft beer under the Granville Island brand. The Company produces and markets consumer-made wine kit products through Winexpert and Vineco International Products. The Company's products are sold predominantly in Canada. Class A shares are non-voting. Its web site is here Andrew Peller Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Monday, August 29, 2016
Superior Plus Corp
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price good, Dividend high. I can see some price rise as dividend is quite high for an ex-income trust stock. I would expect it to be under 5%. Price seems to be good at the present time and the dividend is quite good at 6.06%. See my spreadsheet on Superior Plus Corp.
I do not own this stock of Superior Plus Corp. (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF). I started to follow this stock as it was an income trust company that was talked about in the Money Reporter from MPL Communications. This company changed to a corporation from Unit Trust (TSX-SPF.UN) in 2009.
When this stock became a corporation it decreased its dividends almost 63%. Dividends were flat for a few years and then in 2014 it started to raise its dividends again. If you look at growth of dividends over the past 5 and 10 years they come in at a negative 15% and 11.4% per year. However, over the past 3 years dividends are up by 6.3% per year.
The last dividend rise was in 2015 and it was for 20%. There has been no dividend raise so far this year. So dividends are inconsistent. They have been paying dividends since 1996 and their record is inconsistent. Prior to 2009 dividends went up and down and stayed level. I prefer companies that are more consistent with dividends.
They cannot afford their dividends currently, but maybe in the near future. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 360% in 2015. There was only one year that they could afford their dividends and that was in 2012. However, EPS is expected to be better in 2016 and the DPR is expected to be around 103%. Analysts are expecting a big increase in EPS from $0.20 to $0.70 a 250% increase. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of year and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, EPS is $0.61 a value some 205% higher than the EPS of last year. So this seems possible.
Analysts expect the DPR for EPS to be around 103% in 2016, dropping to 100% in 2017 and then to 91% in 2018. The Dividend Payout Ratio for Cash Flow per Share is better with the 2015 DPR for CFPS at 40% and the 5 year median at 30%.
Dividends are good with possible increases in the future. The current dividend is 6.06% based on dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $11.89. If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago, the dividends would have covered 36.6%, 64% and 142% of your stock's purchase price. Also, you would be earning 8.1%, 4.2% or 4.7% on your stock's purchase price. High dividends ensure quick coverage of the stock's purchase price with dividends.
The outstanding shares have increased by 5.5% and 5.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Debenture Conversions, Share Issues, DRIP and Stock Options. Because of this I would be more interested in the per share values. For example, Revenue is down by 1.3% and up by 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the Revenue per Share is down by 6.4% and flat over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts do not expect much improvement in Revenues over the next few years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.53, 29.15 and 32.68. The corresponding 10 year values are a lot lower and more in line with this type of stock at 9.99, 12.44 and 15.35. The corresponding historical values are 15.13, 18.61 and 20.75. The current P/E Ratio is 10.50 based on a stock price of $11.89 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.70. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap to relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $9.08. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.19 and 1.65. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.31 based on a stock price of $11.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.43. The current P/B Ratio is 2.79 a value some 6.5% lower based on a stock price of $11.89 and BVPS of $5.23. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I cannot really compare the current dividend yield to the historical one because this stock used to be an income trust and income trusts had high dividend yields. The historical high is above 18%. However, the 5 year median dividend yield is 5.91% with the current dividend yield at 6.06% and some 2.4% higher. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $12.40. This implies a total return of 10.34% with 4.29% from capital gains and 6.06% from dividends based on a current stock price of $11.89.
Will Ashworth of Motley Fool recently said why he liked this stock. He thinks it is good for income investors. Grant Hamersma on Baseball News Source talks about recent analysts ratings with a consensus of a Buy rating. Read what analysts say about this stock on Stock Chase
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Andrew Peller Ltd. (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 31, 2016 around 10 am. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Montreal Gazette Portfolio... learn more on Tuesday, August 30, 2016 around 5 pm.
Superior Plus Corp. is a group of diversified businesses that operate within three primary divisions. Superior's Energy Services division provides distribution, wholesale procurement and related services in relation to propane, heating oil and other refined fuels throughout Canada and the North Eastern United States. Superior's Specialty Chemicals division is a leading supplier of sodium chlorate and related technology to the pulp and paper sector and a regional Midwest supplier of chloralkali and potassium based products. Superior's Construction Products Distribution division is a leading distributor of walls, ceilings and insulation products to the Canadian and United States construction industry. Its web site is here Superior Plus Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Superior Plus Corp. (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF). I started to follow this stock as it was an income trust company that was talked about in the Money Reporter from MPL Communications. This company changed to a corporation from Unit Trust (TSX-SPF.UN) in 2009.
When this stock became a corporation it decreased its dividends almost 63%. Dividends were flat for a few years and then in 2014 it started to raise its dividends again. If you look at growth of dividends over the past 5 and 10 years they come in at a negative 15% and 11.4% per year. However, over the past 3 years dividends are up by 6.3% per year.
The last dividend rise was in 2015 and it was for 20%. There has been no dividend raise so far this year. So dividends are inconsistent. They have been paying dividends since 1996 and their record is inconsistent. Prior to 2009 dividends went up and down and stayed level. I prefer companies that are more consistent with dividends.
They cannot afford their dividends currently, but maybe in the near future. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 360% in 2015. There was only one year that they could afford their dividends and that was in 2012. However, EPS is expected to be better in 2016 and the DPR is expected to be around 103%. Analysts are expecting a big increase in EPS from $0.20 to $0.70 a 250% increase. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of year and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, EPS is $0.61 a value some 205% higher than the EPS of last year. So this seems possible.
Analysts expect the DPR for EPS to be around 103% in 2016, dropping to 100% in 2017 and then to 91% in 2018. The Dividend Payout Ratio for Cash Flow per Share is better with the 2015 DPR for CFPS at 40% and the 5 year median at 30%.
Dividends are good with possible increases in the future. The current dividend is 6.06% based on dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $11.89. If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago, the dividends would have covered 36.6%, 64% and 142% of your stock's purchase price. Also, you would be earning 8.1%, 4.2% or 4.7% on your stock's purchase price. High dividends ensure quick coverage of the stock's purchase price with dividends.
The outstanding shares have increased by 5.5% and 5.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Debenture Conversions, Share Issues, DRIP and Stock Options. Because of this I would be more interested in the per share values. For example, Revenue is down by 1.3% and up by 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the Revenue per Share is down by 6.4% and flat over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts do not expect much improvement in Revenues over the next few years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.53, 29.15 and 32.68. The corresponding 10 year values are a lot lower and more in line with this type of stock at 9.99, 12.44 and 15.35. The corresponding historical values are 15.13, 18.61 and 20.75. The current P/E Ratio is 10.50 based on a stock price of $11.89 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.70. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap to relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $9.08. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.19 and 1.65. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.31 based on a stock price of $11.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.43. The current P/B Ratio is 2.79 a value some 6.5% lower based on a stock price of $11.89 and BVPS of $5.23. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I cannot really compare the current dividend yield to the historical one because this stock used to be an income trust and income trusts had high dividend yields. The historical high is above 18%. However, the 5 year median dividend yield is 5.91% with the current dividend yield at 6.06% and some 2.4% higher. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $12.40. This implies a total return of 10.34% with 4.29% from capital gains and 6.06% from dividends based on a current stock price of $11.89.
Will Ashworth of Motley Fool recently said why he liked this stock. He thinks it is good for income investors. Grant Hamersma on Baseball News Source talks about recent analysts ratings with a consensus of a Buy rating. Read what analysts say about this stock on Stock Chase
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Andrew Peller Ltd. (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 31, 2016 around 10 am. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Montreal Gazette Portfolio... learn more on Tuesday, August 30, 2016 around 5 pm.
Superior Plus Corp. is a group of diversified businesses that operate within three primary divisions. Superior's Energy Services division provides distribution, wholesale procurement and related services in relation to propane, heating oil and other refined fuels throughout Canada and the North Eastern United States. Superior's Specialty Chemicals division is a leading supplier of sodium chlorate and related technology to the pulp and paper sector and a regional Midwest supplier of chloralkali and potassium based products. Superior's Construction Products Distribution division is a leading distributor of walls, ceilings and insulation products to the Canadian and United States construction industry. Its web site is here Superior Plus Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, August 26, 2016
Jean Coutu Group Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Relative price good. The various tests on price are showing different results. I will go with the P/B Ratio and Dividend Yield tests as they do not involve estimates. The main worry seems to be Quebec Drug Reform. See my spreadsheet on Jean Coutu Group Inc.
I do not own this stock of Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF), but I used to. I bought this stock first in 2000 for my RRSP account. In 2004, I bought some of this stock for my trading account. In 2007, I sold this stock in my RRSP account because I wanted money to invest in Saputo which I liked better at that time. Also, in 2007, I was looking to buy a condo and so had to raise some money for a mortgage. This company was not doing that well at the moment, so I sold the stock in my Trading Account.
Dividends are low to moderate and dividend increases are moderate. The current dividend yield is 2.51% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $19.10. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.94% and the historical median dividend yield is just 0.74%.
Dividends have been increasing over the years from a 10 year median for Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS of 15.01% 10 years ago to a current 10 year median of 28.37%. The DPR for 2016 for EPS was 38.6%. It is expected to be slightly higher for 2017. The DPR for CFPS was 32%. The DP Ratios are fine. (Note that the financial year for this company ends around March first each year.)
The growth in EPS has been good. However for both Revenue and Cash Flow the 10 year growth is non-existent and they have low growth over the past 5 years. EPS has grown at 8.2% and 9.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue is up by 1.9% per year over the past 5 years, but down by 13.6% over the past 10 years. I am looking at Revenue rather than Revenue per Share as outstanding shares have declined by 4.3% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.80, 11.42 and 13.05. The corresponding 10 year values are 10.21, 11.66 and 13.10. The historical values are 13.57, 19.06 and 22.70. It is interesting that the P/E Ratios have been getting lower over time. The current P/E Ratio is 17.21 based on a stock price $19.10 and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.11. This company has changed over time, so I am going to just consider the 5 and 10 year ratios. On this basis the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $12.45. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.23, 1.46 and 1.74. The current P/GPR ratio is 1.53 based on a stock price of $19.10. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 3.69. The current P/B Ratio is 3.08 a value some 16% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $6.20 and a stock price of $19.10. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The historical median dividend yield is 0.74% and the current dividend yield is 2.51% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $19.10. The current dividend yield is some 239% above the historical yield. The 5 year dividend yield is 1.94% a values some 29% below the current yield. The historical high dividend yield is 2.77% which is still some 9% above the current one, so we are not at an historical high. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell. Most of the recommendations are a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $18.80. This implies a total loss of 0.94% with 2.51% from dividends and a capital loss of 1.57%.
Lee Rogers on Press Telegraph talks about recent analysts calls. Nelson Smith of Motley Fool currently likes this company at a P/E of 17 on trailing earnings and price of $19.42. This company is currently being sued by franchise owners according to Damon van der Linde at Financial Post. Paul Delean of the Montreal Gazette talks about portfolio manager of the Montreal Gazette portfolio, Christine Décarie, selling off this stocks. She said it was not in trouble, but she does not really know the full impact yet of the (provincial) drug reform.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Superior Plus Corp. (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF)... learn more on Monday, August 29, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book In-Between Days by Teva Harrison. learn more...
The Jean Coutu Group is one of the most trusted names in Canadian pharmacy retailing. The Corporation operates a network of 413 franchised stores located in the provinces of Québec, New Brunswick and Ontario under the banners of PJC Jean Coutu, PJC Clinique, PJC Santé and PJC Santé Beauté. Furthermore, the Jean Coutu Group owns Pro Doc Ltd ("Pro Doc"), a Québec-based subsidiary and manufacturer of generic drugs. Controlling shareholder is Jean Coutu. Its web site is here Jean Coutu Group Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF), but I used to. I bought this stock first in 2000 for my RRSP account. In 2004, I bought some of this stock for my trading account. In 2007, I sold this stock in my RRSP account because I wanted money to invest in Saputo which I liked better at that time. Also, in 2007, I was looking to buy a condo and so had to raise some money for a mortgage. This company was not doing that well at the moment, so I sold the stock in my Trading Account.
Dividends are low to moderate and dividend increases are moderate. The current dividend yield is 2.51% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $19.10. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.94% and the historical median dividend yield is just 0.74%.
Dividends have been increasing over the years from a 10 year median for Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS of 15.01% 10 years ago to a current 10 year median of 28.37%. The DPR for 2016 for EPS was 38.6%. It is expected to be slightly higher for 2017. The DPR for CFPS was 32%. The DP Ratios are fine. (Note that the financial year for this company ends around March first each year.)
The growth in EPS has been good. However for both Revenue and Cash Flow the 10 year growth is non-existent and they have low growth over the past 5 years. EPS has grown at 8.2% and 9.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue is up by 1.9% per year over the past 5 years, but down by 13.6% over the past 10 years. I am looking at Revenue rather than Revenue per Share as outstanding shares have declined by 4.3% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.80, 11.42 and 13.05. The corresponding 10 year values are 10.21, 11.66 and 13.10. The historical values are 13.57, 19.06 and 22.70. It is interesting that the P/E Ratios have been getting lower over time. The current P/E Ratio is 17.21 based on a stock price $19.10 and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.11. This company has changed over time, so I am going to just consider the 5 and 10 year ratios. On this basis the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $12.45. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.23, 1.46 and 1.74. The current P/GPR ratio is 1.53 based on a stock price of $19.10. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 3.69. The current P/B Ratio is 3.08 a value some 16% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $6.20 and a stock price of $19.10. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The historical median dividend yield is 0.74% and the current dividend yield is 2.51% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $19.10. The current dividend yield is some 239% above the historical yield. The 5 year dividend yield is 1.94% a values some 29% below the current yield. The historical high dividend yield is 2.77% which is still some 9% above the current one, so we are not at an historical high. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell. Most of the recommendations are a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $18.80. This implies a total loss of 0.94% with 2.51% from dividends and a capital loss of 1.57%.
Lee Rogers on Press Telegraph talks about recent analysts calls. Nelson Smith of Motley Fool currently likes this company at a P/E of 17 on trailing earnings and price of $19.42. This company is currently being sued by franchise owners according to Damon van der Linde at Financial Post. Paul Delean of the Montreal Gazette talks about portfolio manager of the Montreal Gazette portfolio, Christine Décarie, selling off this stocks. She said it was not in trouble, but she does not really know the full impact yet of the (provincial) drug reform.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Superior Plus Corp. (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF)... learn more on Monday, August 29, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book In-Between Days by Teva Harrison. learn more...
The Jean Coutu Group is one of the most trusted names in Canadian pharmacy retailing. The Corporation operates a network of 413 franchised stores located in the provinces of Québec, New Brunswick and Ontario under the banners of PJC Jean Coutu, PJC Clinique, PJC Santé and PJC Santé Beauté. Furthermore, the Jean Coutu Group owns Pro Doc Ltd ("Pro Doc"), a Québec-based subsidiary and manufacturer of generic drugs. Controlling shareholder is Jean Coutu. Its web site is here Jean Coutu Group Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Evertz Technologies
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price cheap to reasonable. The ratios are a bit high but relatively speaking, the current price is good. For example, the current P/B Ratio of 3.60 is on the high side for this sort of ratio. The 10 year median P/BN Ratio of 3.54 is also on the high side for this sort of ratio. See my spreadsheet on Evertz Technologies .
I own this stock of Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF). I got the idea to investigate this stock from a G&M Article. It looked like something I might want to try out. This stock came up in a stock screen filter article that was looking for reliable dividend payers. That is companies that have reliable profits big enough to comfortably cover their dividend payments. They have an end of March financial year.
The dividends on this stock are good and the growth is moderate. The current dividend is 4.06% based on a stock price of $17.75 and dividends of $0.72. The dividends were started in 2008 and the 5 and 8 year growth rates are 14.9% and 17.4% per year. Growth in dividends has come at the expense of high Dividend Payout Ratios.
The DPR for EPS for 2016 is at 76.6%. The 5 year running average is at 123%. This is because they paid out a special dividend in 2014 that earnings could not cover. The DPR for EPS is expected to be around 67% in 2017. The DPR for CFPS is at 53% in 2016 and is expected to be around 60% in 2017.
I have had this stock for some 4.8 years and dividends have covered some 26% of my original stock price. I am also making a dividend yield of 5.7% on my original stock price. This is not that far off the current dividend yield, but dividend yields have risen since I bought my stock in 2011. When I bought my stock in 2011 I was getting a dividend yield of 2.8%.
The company hit a peak for the March 30, 2011 financial year. That financial year is 5 years ago, so the 5 year growth does not look very good. The company has surpassed this peak in Revenue, but not in earnings or cash flow. But earnings and cash flow has been increasing over the past 2 to 3 years.
A positive note is the debt ratios which are very good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2016 was at 5.36 and the Debt Ratio was at 5.71. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2016 are 1.21 and 0.21 respectively.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 14.54, 17.70and 21.07. The corresponding 10 year values are 14.04, 17.45 and 20.36. The current P/E Ratio is 16.59 based on a stock price of $17.75 and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.07. This testing suggests that the stock price relatively reasonable, and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $10.90. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.37, 1.67 and 1.94. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.63 based on a stock price of $17.75.. This testing suggests that the stock price relatively reasonable, and below the median.
I get a Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.54. The current P/B Ratio is 3.60 a value some 1.51% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $4.94 and a stock price of $17.75. This testing suggests that the stock price relatively reasonable, and at the median.
The current dividend yield is 4.06%. The historical median (or 8 year median) dividend yield is 3.21% a value some 26% lower. This testing suggests that the stock price relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I see Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. Most are Buy recommendations and the consensus would be a buy recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $20.63. This would imply a total return of 20.28% with 16.23% from capital gains and 4.06% from dividends.
Richard Conner on Consumer Eagle talks about how the three analysts following this stock all rate it a Buy. On Market Wired this company talks about the highlights of their Fiscal Year of 2016. Joseph Solitro in March 2016 on Motley Fool named this stock in a list of undervalues tech stocks.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was ONEX Corp. (TSX-OCX, OTC-ONEXF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF)... learn more on Friday, August 26, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Are We Still Capitalist? ... learn more on Thursday, August 25, 2016 around 5 pm.
Evertz Technologies Limited designs, manufactures and markets video and audio infrastructure equipment for the production, post production, broadcast and internet protocol television ("IPTV") industry. Its web site is here Evertz Technologies.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF). I got the idea to investigate this stock from a G&M Article. It looked like something I might want to try out. This stock came up in a stock screen filter article that was looking for reliable dividend payers. That is companies that have reliable profits big enough to comfortably cover their dividend payments. They have an end of March financial year.
The dividends on this stock are good and the growth is moderate. The current dividend is 4.06% based on a stock price of $17.75 and dividends of $0.72. The dividends were started in 2008 and the 5 and 8 year growth rates are 14.9% and 17.4% per year. Growth in dividends has come at the expense of high Dividend Payout Ratios.
The DPR for EPS for 2016 is at 76.6%. The 5 year running average is at 123%. This is because they paid out a special dividend in 2014 that earnings could not cover. The DPR for EPS is expected to be around 67% in 2017. The DPR for CFPS is at 53% in 2016 and is expected to be around 60% in 2017.
I have had this stock for some 4.8 years and dividends have covered some 26% of my original stock price. I am also making a dividend yield of 5.7% on my original stock price. This is not that far off the current dividend yield, but dividend yields have risen since I bought my stock in 2011. When I bought my stock in 2011 I was getting a dividend yield of 2.8%.
The company hit a peak for the March 30, 2011 financial year. That financial year is 5 years ago, so the 5 year growth does not look very good. The company has surpassed this peak in Revenue, but not in earnings or cash flow. But earnings and cash flow has been increasing over the past 2 to 3 years.
A positive note is the debt ratios which are very good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2016 was at 5.36 and the Debt Ratio was at 5.71. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2016 are 1.21 and 0.21 respectively.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 14.54, 17.70and 21.07. The corresponding 10 year values are 14.04, 17.45 and 20.36. The current P/E Ratio is 16.59 based on a stock price of $17.75 and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.07. This testing suggests that the stock price relatively reasonable, and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $10.90. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.37, 1.67 and 1.94. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.63 based on a stock price of $17.75.. This testing suggests that the stock price relatively reasonable, and below the median.
I get a Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.54. The current P/B Ratio is 3.60 a value some 1.51% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $4.94 and a stock price of $17.75. This testing suggests that the stock price relatively reasonable, and at the median.
The current dividend yield is 4.06%. The historical median (or 8 year median) dividend yield is 3.21% a value some 26% lower. This testing suggests that the stock price relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I see Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. Most are Buy recommendations and the consensus would be a buy recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $20.63. This would imply a total return of 20.28% with 16.23% from capital gains and 4.06% from dividends.
Richard Conner on Consumer Eagle talks about how the three analysts following this stock all rate it a Buy. On Market Wired this company talks about the highlights of their Fiscal Year of 2016. Joseph Solitro in March 2016 on Motley Fool named this stock in a list of undervalues tech stocks.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was ONEX Corp. (TSX-OCX, OTC-ONEXF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF)... learn more on Friday, August 26, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Are We Still Capitalist? ... learn more on Thursday, August 25, 2016 around 5 pm.
Evertz Technologies Limited designs, manufactures and markets video and audio infrastructure equipment for the production, post production, broadcast and internet protocol television ("IPTV") industry. Its web site is here Evertz Technologies.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, August 22, 2016
ONEX Corp
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably relatively expensive. They hit a low in stock prices in 2008 and they have been rising since. They are making no profit but have very good cash flow. Book Value is negative and debt ratios are low. See my spreadsheet on ONEX Corp.
I do not own this stock of ONEX Corp. (TSX-OCX, OTC-ONEXF), but I used to. I thought this was a dividend paying stock, but was mistaken. A stock that keeps its dividend level year after year is not a true dividend stock.
The thing to comments on is that for the shareholders of this company, the book value is negative. This is never a good sign. The stock price has been climbing over the past few years, but is down by 5.7% this year. Quarter 2 of 2016 is the first time for a while that the company has been making a profit. Profit for this second quarter was $1.30.
Let us start with the dividend. I have dividend information going back to 1992. Dividends were $0.10 from 1992 to 1994 when they were increased to $0.11. They did not change for around 18 year until 2013. There have been good dividend increases since then, but the dividend yield is still extremely low at just $0.34%
Dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 15.39% and 7.42% per year. This does not really reflect what is going on because over the past 5 and 10 years there was years with no increases. The median recent increase is 23%. However, the last increase for this year was 10%.
Another problem is that they cannot afford their dividends because they have not had a profit over the past 4 years. However, the cash flows are very good with Dividend Payout Ratio for CFPS at 0.78% in 2015 and the 5 year median is also 0.78%. This is extremely low.
The outstanding shares have been declining lately by some 2.2% and 2.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Therefore I would not look at per share growth but at Revenue rather than Revenue per share or Net Income rather than EPS. For example Revenue declined by 4.3% over the past 5 years but was up by 3.3% over the past 10 years. Revenue per Share declined by 2.1% over the past 5 years, but is up by 3.1% over the past 10 years.
I cannot stock price test using P/E Ratio because of a string of earnings losses over the last several years. I cannot calculate a Graham Price because of this string of earnings losses and also because the book value is negative. I also cannot use book value to test stock price because of the negative book value.
The historical median dividend yield is 0.54%. The current dividend yield at 0.34% is some 36% lower. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.28 and a stock price of $79.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 0.18. The current P/S Ratio at 0.32 is some 76% higher. The current P/S Ratio is based on Revenue of $20,406M for the 12 month period ending June 2016 of the second quarter. The revenue per share would be $192.62 and the stock price used would be $79.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/CFPS Ratio is 3.39. The current P/CF Ratio is 3.74 based on a stock price of $79.98 and Cash Flow of $1,755M and CFPS of $16.96 based on the 12 month period to the end of June 2016. The stock price used is $79.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
Although no analyst is giving out estimates there are 6 analysts giving out recommendations on this stock. There are Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most are Hold recommendations, but the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $84.62. This implies a total return of just 6.15% with 5.80% from capital gains and 0.34% from dividends. This is based on a stock price of $79.98.
Renee Jackson on Cerbat Gem talks about Canaccord Genuity giving this stock a buy rating and upping their price target. Barry Critchley in an article on Financial Post talks about Onex using IPO to spin off JELD-WEN Holding Inc. This is not the normal method this company has used. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was BlackBerry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 24, 2016 around 5 pm. On Wednesday, August 14, 2016, on my other blog I will write about Dividend Growth again... learn more on Tuesday, August 23, 2016 around 5 pm.
Onex is one of North America's oldest investment firm committed to acquiring and building high-quality businesses in partnership with talented management teams. Onex manages investment platforms focused on private equity, real estate and credit securities. Gerald Schwartz is a major owner. Its web site is here ONEX Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of ONEX Corp. (TSX-OCX, OTC-ONEXF), but I used to. I thought this was a dividend paying stock, but was mistaken. A stock that keeps its dividend level year after year is not a true dividend stock.
The thing to comments on is that for the shareholders of this company, the book value is negative. This is never a good sign. The stock price has been climbing over the past few years, but is down by 5.7% this year. Quarter 2 of 2016 is the first time for a while that the company has been making a profit. Profit for this second quarter was $1.30.
Let us start with the dividend. I have dividend information going back to 1992. Dividends were $0.10 from 1992 to 1994 when they were increased to $0.11. They did not change for around 18 year until 2013. There have been good dividend increases since then, but the dividend yield is still extremely low at just $0.34%
Dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 15.39% and 7.42% per year. This does not really reflect what is going on because over the past 5 and 10 years there was years with no increases. The median recent increase is 23%. However, the last increase for this year was 10%.
Another problem is that they cannot afford their dividends because they have not had a profit over the past 4 years. However, the cash flows are very good with Dividend Payout Ratio for CFPS at 0.78% in 2015 and the 5 year median is also 0.78%. This is extremely low.
The outstanding shares have been declining lately by some 2.2% and 2.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Therefore I would not look at per share growth but at Revenue rather than Revenue per share or Net Income rather than EPS. For example Revenue declined by 4.3% over the past 5 years but was up by 3.3% over the past 10 years. Revenue per Share declined by 2.1% over the past 5 years, but is up by 3.1% over the past 10 years.
I cannot stock price test using P/E Ratio because of a string of earnings losses over the last several years. I cannot calculate a Graham Price because of this string of earnings losses and also because the book value is negative. I also cannot use book value to test stock price because of the negative book value.
The historical median dividend yield is 0.54%. The current dividend yield at 0.34% is some 36% lower. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.28 and a stock price of $79.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 0.18. The current P/S Ratio at 0.32 is some 76% higher. The current P/S Ratio is based on Revenue of $20,406M for the 12 month period ending June 2016 of the second quarter. The revenue per share would be $192.62 and the stock price used would be $79.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/CFPS Ratio is 3.39. The current P/CF Ratio is 3.74 based on a stock price of $79.98 and Cash Flow of $1,755M and CFPS of $16.96 based on the 12 month period to the end of June 2016. The stock price used is $79.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
Although no analyst is giving out estimates there are 6 analysts giving out recommendations on this stock. There are Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most are Hold recommendations, but the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $84.62. This implies a total return of just 6.15% with 5.80% from capital gains and 0.34% from dividends. This is based on a stock price of $79.98.
Renee Jackson on Cerbat Gem talks about Canaccord Genuity giving this stock a buy rating and upping their price target. Barry Critchley in an article on Financial Post talks about Onex using IPO to spin off JELD-WEN Holding Inc. This is not the normal method this company has used. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was BlackBerry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 24, 2016 around 5 pm. On Wednesday, August 14, 2016, on my other blog I will write about Dividend Growth again... learn more on Tuesday, August 23, 2016 around 5 pm.
Onex is one of North America's oldest investment firm committed to acquiring and building high-quality businesses in partnership with talented management teams. Onex manages investment platforms focused on private equity, real estate and credit securities. Gerald Schwartz is a major owner. Its web site is here ONEX Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, August 19, 2016
BlackBerry Ltd
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Had its day in the sun. Buying this is gambling that current management can turn this company around. They have not been able to do so, so far. I have my doubts, but you never can tell. The thing is that this company may exist but the real questions is can it make money for its shareholders again? See my spreadsheet on BlackBerry Ltd.
I do not own this stock of BlackBerry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY), but I used to. I always liked tech stocks and this was a fast rising tech stock when I bought it. I bought this stock for capital gain. I first bought it in 1999 and then some more in 2000. I sold some in 2006 and 2007 to lock in some profit. I sold the rest of my stock in 2010. I made a 20.2% per year total return on this stock.
This thing I noticed when updating my spreadsheet was the difference in basic and diluted EPS. The first was a loss of $0.40 and the second was a loss of $0.86. The difference is because the company used the dilutive effect of the Debentures using the if-converted method, assuming conversion at the beginning of fiscal 2016 for the year ended February 29, 2016.
This was never a dividend paying stock and I bought it for capital gains only and also to have some fun investing. This stock hit a peak in early 2011 and has not done much for investors ever since. Revenue is down almost 90%. The company has not earned a profit in the last 4 years. Cash Flow is down over 90%.
The only good thing I can say is that the debt ratios are good. Liquidity Ratio is 2.90 and Debt Ratio is 2.38. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.73 and 0.73. However I do not see how this can help a company with fast declining revenue etc.
I do not know how useful testing the stock price is. I cannot use Price/Earnings per Share (P/E) Ratios because the EPS is negative and that is not expected to change anytime soon. I also cannot therefore calculate a Graham Price.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.89. The current one is 1.66 a value some 43% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $6.33 and a stock price of $10.48. This would suggest that the stock price is relatively cheap. Why we get a good score here is because the Book Value has not fallen as far as Revenue, Earnings or Cash Flow. It is only down some 50% rather than 90%. Give it more time and it will probably fall more.
The 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 10.24 and the current P/CF Ratio at 22.49 is some 120% higher. The current P/CF Ratio is based on CFPS estimate for 2016 of $0.47 and a stock price of $10.48. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 1.80 and the current P/S Ratio is 2.51, a value some 40% higher. The current P/S Ratio is based on Revenue of $1681M for 2016, Revenue per Share of $3.22 for 2016 and a stock price of $10.48.This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and sell. The most are a Hold and second is Underperform. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $7.87 US$ or $10.19 CDN$. This implies a total loss of 2.79% CDN$ or 2.6% US$.
Jacob Donnelly of Motley Fool thinks that Blackberry needs to get out of the hardware business and focus on the software business. Patrick Brik on Profit Confidential does a technical analysis and expects a breakout. See what the analysts say on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was EnerCare Inc. (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be ONEX Corp. (TSX-OCX, OTC-ONEXF)... learn more on Monday, August 22, 2016around 5 pm.
BlackBerry is securing a connected world, delivering innovative solutions across the entire mobile ecosystem and beyond. We secure the world's most sensitive data across all end points - from cars to smartphones - making the mobile-first enterprise vision a reality. Based in Waterloo, Ontario, BlackBerry operates offices in North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Its web site is here BlackBerry Ltd .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of BlackBerry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY), but I used to. I always liked tech stocks and this was a fast rising tech stock when I bought it. I bought this stock for capital gain. I first bought it in 1999 and then some more in 2000. I sold some in 2006 and 2007 to lock in some profit. I sold the rest of my stock in 2010. I made a 20.2% per year total return on this stock.
This thing I noticed when updating my spreadsheet was the difference in basic and diluted EPS. The first was a loss of $0.40 and the second was a loss of $0.86. The difference is because the company used the dilutive effect of the Debentures using the if-converted method, assuming conversion at the beginning of fiscal 2016 for the year ended February 29, 2016.
This was never a dividend paying stock and I bought it for capital gains only and also to have some fun investing. This stock hit a peak in early 2011 and has not done much for investors ever since. Revenue is down almost 90%. The company has not earned a profit in the last 4 years. Cash Flow is down over 90%.
The only good thing I can say is that the debt ratios are good. Liquidity Ratio is 2.90 and Debt Ratio is 2.38. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.73 and 0.73. However I do not see how this can help a company with fast declining revenue etc.
I do not know how useful testing the stock price is. I cannot use Price/Earnings per Share (P/E) Ratios because the EPS is negative and that is not expected to change anytime soon. I also cannot therefore calculate a Graham Price.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.89. The current one is 1.66 a value some 43% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $6.33 and a stock price of $10.48. This would suggest that the stock price is relatively cheap. Why we get a good score here is because the Book Value has not fallen as far as Revenue, Earnings or Cash Flow. It is only down some 50% rather than 90%. Give it more time and it will probably fall more.
The 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 10.24 and the current P/CF Ratio at 22.49 is some 120% higher. The current P/CF Ratio is based on CFPS estimate for 2016 of $0.47 and a stock price of $10.48. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 1.80 and the current P/S Ratio is 2.51, a value some 40% higher. The current P/S Ratio is based on Revenue of $1681M for 2016, Revenue per Share of $3.22 for 2016 and a stock price of $10.48.This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and sell. The most are a Hold and second is Underperform. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $7.87 US$ or $10.19 CDN$. This implies a total loss of 2.79% CDN$ or 2.6% US$.
Jacob Donnelly of Motley Fool thinks that Blackberry needs to get out of the hardware business and focus on the software business. Patrick Brik on Profit Confidential does a technical analysis and expects a breakout. See what the analysts say on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was EnerCare Inc. (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be ONEX Corp. (TSX-OCX, OTC-ONEXF)... learn more on Monday, August 22, 2016around 5 pm.
BlackBerry is securing a connected world, delivering innovative solutions across the entire mobile ecosystem and beyond. We secure the world's most sensitive data across all end points - from cars to smartphones - making the mobile-first enterprise vision a reality. Based in Waterloo, Ontario, BlackBerry operates offices in North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Its web site is here BlackBerry Ltd .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
EnerCare Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably expensive. Some test show stock price expensive and some reasonable but above the median. It is probably not a good time to buy. See my spreadsheet on EnerCare Inc.
I do not own this stock of EnerCare Inc. (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF). I started to follow this stock in 2009 when it was an income trust. This was one of a few income trusts that I followed because it was recommended by MPL communications.
One thing I noticed when I updated my spreadsheet for the second quarterly report is that accrued liabilities increased dramatically and as a result the Liquidity Ratio is just 0.90 for the second quarter. If this ratio is below 1.00 it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Accounts payable and accrued liabilities were $66,536 and 73,961 for the first quarter to $159,037 in the second quarter.
The dividends are good and the increases are on the low side. The current dividend yield is 4.88% and the 5 year median is 7.35%. The growth in dividends over the past 5 and 10 years is 5.3% and a decline of 2.9% per year. This stock used to be an income trust. That is the reason for the past high dividend yield rates and the decline in dividends over the past 10 years. Dividends are paid monthly.
At the time that Income Trust companies were forced to become corporations it was felt that with the combination of dividend cuts and stock price increases that most of these companies would end up paying a dividend of around 4 to 5%. It dropped the dividend by 50% when it changed to a corporation. The dividend yield has just recently moved to the 4 to 5% yield. They have again started to raise dividends, but they have been a bit inconsistent.
I would think that it is back to being a dividend growth stock. This is also probably why the stock price has been going up recently.
Their Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is still much too high but they seem to be moving it down. The DPR for CFPS is fine. The DPR for EPS was 150% in 2015. The last two years have seen large increases and the DPR for EPS is expected to be around 180% in 2016 before it moves south again. The DPR for CFPS was 39% in 2015 and the 5 year median is 37%.
A number of analysts are still looking at Distributable Income in the form of Funds from Operations (FFO). Since 2010 it has been in the range of 75% to 95% which is good. It is expected to be higher 107% in 2015 as analysts seem to expect a drop in FFO in 2016 of some 30%. For the 12 month period ending at the second quarter compared to the 12 month period to the end of 2015, FFO has dropped some 17%. So analysts thinking it will be lower in 2016 are probably correct.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 27.94, 36.97 and 46.00. The 10 years values are also high but not quite as bad at 25.64, 33.14 and 42.63. The historical values are 28.63, 35.71 and 42.87. They are high because this stock used to be an income trust and FFO counted more than EPS. The current P/E Ratio is 38.67 based on a stock price of $18.95 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.49. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 9.15m 10.32 and 11.49. The corresponding 10 year values are 8.12, 9.40 and 11.28. The current P/FFO Ratio is 15.75 based on 2016 FFO estimate of $0.82 and a stock price of $18.95. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $8.00. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.87, 2.18 and 2.72. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.37 based on a stock price of $18.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.03. The current P/B Ratio is 3.26 a value some 7.8% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $18.95 and BVPS of $5.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.02. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.55 based on a stock price of $18.95 and 2016 CFPS estimate of $1.64. The current P/CF Ratio is some 130% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $19.90. This implies a total return of $9.895 with 5.01% from capital gains and 4.83% from dividends.
Renee Jackson on The Cerbat Gem talk about some analysts increasing their 12 month stock price target for this company. This company put out a Market Wired Press Release about acquiring a Service Experts firm. See what analysts are saying about this company at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC, OTC-none)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be BlackBerry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY)... learn more on Friday, August 19, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about FFO, AFFO.. learn more on Thursday, August 18, 2016 around 10 am.
EnerCare Inc. owns a portfolio of waterheaters and other portfolio assets, which they rent to primarily residential customers. They rent out waterheaters in the GTA and southern Ontario. EnerCare also owns EnerCare Connections Inc., a leading sub-metering company, with metering contracts for condominium and apartment suites in Ontario, Alberta and elsewhere in Canada. Its web site is here EnerCare Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of EnerCare Inc. (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF). I started to follow this stock in 2009 when it was an income trust. This was one of a few income trusts that I followed because it was recommended by MPL communications.
One thing I noticed when I updated my spreadsheet for the second quarterly report is that accrued liabilities increased dramatically and as a result the Liquidity Ratio is just 0.90 for the second quarter. If this ratio is below 1.00 it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Accounts payable and accrued liabilities were $66,536 and 73,961 for the first quarter to $159,037 in the second quarter.
The dividends are good and the increases are on the low side. The current dividend yield is 4.88% and the 5 year median is 7.35%. The growth in dividends over the past 5 and 10 years is 5.3% and a decline of 2.9% per year. This stock used to be an income trust. That is the reason for the past high dividend yield rates and the decline in dividends over the past 10 years. Dividends are paid monthly.
At the time that Income Trust companies were forced to become corporations it was felt that with the combination of dividend cuts and stock price increases that most of these companies would end up paying a dividend of around 4 to 5%. It dropped the dividend by 50% when it changed to a corporation. The dividend yield has just recently moved to the 4 to 5% yield. They have again started to raise dividends, but they have been a bit inconsistent.
I would think that it is back to being a dividend growth stock. This is also probably why the stock price has been going up recently.
Their Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is still much too high but they seem to be moving it down. The DPR for CFPS is fine. The DPR for EPS was 150% in 2015. The last two years have seen large increases and the DPR for EPS is expected to be around 180% in 2016 before it moves south again. The DPR for CFPS was 39% in 2015 and the 5 year median is 37%.
A number of analysts are still looking at Distributable Income in the form of Funds from Operations (FFO). Since 2010 it has been in the range of 75% to 95% which is good. It is expected to be higher 107% in 2015 as analysts seem to expect a drop in FFO in 2016 of some 30%. For the 12 month period ending at the second quarter compared to the 12 month period to the end of 2015, FFO has dropped some 17%. So analysts thinking it will be lower in 2016 are probably correct.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 27.94, 36.97 and 46.00. The 10 years values are also high but not quite as bad at 25.64, 33.14 and 42.63. The historical values are 28.63, 35.71 and 42.87. They are high because this stock used to be an income trust and FFO counted more than EPS. The current P/E Ratio is 38.67 based on a stock price of $18.95 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.49. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 9.15m 10.32 and 11.49. The corresponding 10 year values are 8.12, 9.40 and 11.28. The current P/FFO Ratio is 15.75 based on 2016 FFO estimate of $0.82 and a stock price of $18.95. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $8.00. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.87, 2.18 and 2.72. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.37 based on a stock price of $18.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.03. The current P/B Ratio is 3.26 a value some 7.8% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $18.95 and BVPS of $5.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.02. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.55 based on a stock price of $18.95 and 2016 CFPS estimate of $1.64. The current P/CF Ratio is some 130% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $19.90. This implies a total return of $9.895 with 5.01% from capital gains and 4.83% from dividends.
Renee Jackson on The Cerbat Gem talk about some analysts increasing their 12 month stock price target for this company. This company put out a Market Wired Press Release about acquiring a Service Experts firm. See what analysts are saying about this company at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC, OTC-none)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be BlackBerry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY)... learn more on Friday, August 19, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about FFO, AFFO.. learn more on Thursday, August 18, 2016 around 10 am.
EnerCare Inc. owns a portfolio of waterheaters and other portfolio assets, which they rent to primarily residential customers. They rent out waterheaters in the GTA and southern Ontario. EnerCare also owns EnerCare Connections Inc., a leading sub-metering company, with metering contracts for condominium and apartment suites in Ontario, Alberta and elsewhere in Canada. Its web site is here EnerCare Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, August 15, 2016
Newfoundland Capital Corp
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is cheap. There is not much in analysts' coverage. It is not a dividend growth stock but dividends have risen over time. Dividends have been inconsistent. See my spreadsheet on Newfoundland Capital Corp.
I do not own this stock of Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC.A, OTC-none). I started to follow this stock as it was suggested as a decent dividend paying stock for investment purposes in the latter part of 2009. It is not on any dividend lists that I follow so I took a look at it.
This is not a dividend growth stock. Their dividends are inconsistent. They have increased, decreased and suspended dividends at various times. Currently they have not changed the dividend since 2012 but announced a big increase for 2016 of some 33%. When they have increased the dividends the increases have been quite high.
The dividend has been paid semi-annually with a first dividend at $0.09 and a second dividend of $0.06. The problem with this is most site that you look at assume dividends are the same and so show a rise in dividends at the beginning of the year and decrease in dividends at the end. Since they now say they will be paying $0.10 semi-annually, this problem should now go away.
You can make money on this stock. The total return to the end of 2015 was at 11.51% and 8.79% per year over the past 5 and 10 years with 9.78% and 7.18% from capital gains and 1.74% and 1.62% per year from dividends. This stock's price is down by just over 16% this year, so the 5 and 10 year total return to dated is 4.69% and 6.49% per year with 2.91% and 4.72% per year from capital gains and 1.78% and 1.77% per year from dividends.
When looking at growth on this stock I would want to look at Revenue, Net Income and Cash Flow rather than per share values. This is because the outstanding shares have been declining over the past 5 and 10 years by 3.3% and 2.4% per year. For example, the Revenue has grown by 7% and 7.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share has grown at 10.7% and 9.7% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.19, 12.69 and 14.81. The 10 year corresponding values are a bit higher at 11.56, 14.25 and 16.54. The historical values are even higher at 15.01, 15.91 and 21.30. The current P/E Ratio is 11.50 based on a stock price of $9.20 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.80. I wonder if there is too low as the second quarterly report shows an increase in EPS of 22% and $0.80 EPS is just lower than last year. In any event this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
If we use the EPS for the past 12 months to the end of the second quarter, the P/E Ratio is very good at just 9.29. This is low against the historical ratios and P/E Ratios below 10.00 suggests a cheap stock.
I get a Graham Price of $10.22. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.07, 1.24 and 1.41. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.90 based on a stock price $9.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.03. The current P/B Ratio is 1.59 a value some 22% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $5.80 and a stock price of $9.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.52%. The current dividend yield is 2.17% based on Dividends of $.20 and a stock price of $9.20. Note this includes the most recently dividend increase. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
There does not seem to be any analyst currently following this stock.
There is a recent press release from this company on News Wire about the recent dividend increase. In January 2015 Michael Cloherty wrote an article in the G&M about twenty wealth-creating stocks you may be overlooking. This stock was number 6. This was a number cruncher article, so any stocks found in such a search need to be vetted.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will EnerCare Inc. (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 17, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Job Creation... learn more on Tuesday, August 16, 2016 around 5 pm.
Newfoundland Capital Corporation Limited also owns and operates Newcap Radio. Newcap Radio is one of Canada's leading radio broadcasters with 79 licenses across Canada. The Company reaches millions of listeners each week through a variety of formats and is a recognized industry leader in radio programming, sales and networking. Its web site is here Newfoundland Capital Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC.A, OTC-none). I started to follow this stock as it was suggested as a decent dividend paying stock for investment purposes in the latter part of 2009. It is not on any dividend lists that I follow so I took a look at it.
This is not a dividend growth stock. Their dividends are inconsistent. They have increased, decreased and suspended dividends at various times. Currently they have not changed the dividend since 2012 but announced a big increase for 2016 of some 33%. When they have increased the dividends the increases have been quite high.
The dividend has been paid semi-annually with a first dividend at $0.09 and a second dividend of $0.06. The problem with this is most site that you look at assume dividends are the same and so show a rise in dividends at the beginning of the year and decrease in dividends at the end. Since they now say they will be paying $0.10 semi-annually, this problem should now go away.
You can make money on this stock. The total return to the end of 2015 was at 11.51% and 8.79% per year over the past 5 and 10 years with 9.78% and 7.18% from capital gains and 1.74% and 1.62% per year from dividends. This stock's price is down by just over 16% this year, so the 5 and 10 year total return to dated is 4.69% and 6.49% per year with 2.91% and 4.72% per year from capital gains and 1.78% and 1.77% per year from dividends.
When looking at growth on this stock I would want to look at Revenue, Net Income and Cash Flow rather than per share values. This is because the outstanding shares have been declining over the past 5 and 10 years by 3.3% and 2.4% per year. For example, the Revenue has grown by 7% and 7.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share has grown at 10.7% and 9.7% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.19, 12.69 and 14.81. The 10 year corresponding values are a bit higher at 11.56, 14.25 and 16.54. The historical values are even higher at 15.01, 15.91 and 21.30. The current P/E Ratio is 11.50 based on a stock price of $9.20 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.80. I wonder if there is too low as the second quarterly report shows an increase in EPS of 22% and $0.80 EPS is just lower than last year. In any event this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
If we use the EPS for the past 12 months to the end of the second quarter, the P/E Ratio is very good at just 9.29. This is low against the historical ratios and P/E Ratios below 10.00 suggests a cheap stock.
I get a Graham Price of $10.22. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.07, 1.24 and 1.41. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.90 based on a stock price $9.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.03. The current P/B Ratio is 1.59 a value some 22% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $5.80 and a stock price of $9.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.52%. The current dividend yield is 2.17% based on Dividends of $.20 and a stock price of $9.20. Note this includes the most recently dividend increase. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
There does not seem to be any analyst currently following this stock.
There is a recent press release from this company on News Wire about the recent dividend increase. In January 2015 Michael Cloherty wrote an article in the G&M about twenty wealth-creating stocks you may be overlooking. This stock was number 6. This was a number cruncher article, so any stocks found in such a search need to be vetted.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will EnerCare Inc. (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 17, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Job Creation... learn more on Tuesday, August 16, 2016 around 5 pm.
Newfoundland Capital Corporation Limited also owns and operates Newcap Radio. Newcap Radio is one of Canada's leading radio broadcasters with 79 licenses across Canada. The Company reaches millions of listeners each week through a variety of formats and is a recognized industry leader in radio programming, sales and networking. Its web site is here Newfoundland Capital Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, August 12, 2016
Loblaw Companies Ltd.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably relatively expensive. On a number of tests this stock is showing that it is relatively expensive. See my spreadsheet on Loblaw Companies Ltd.
I do not own this stock of Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) but I used to. I have followed this stock for some time. I got the stock from Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth companies. I owned it from 1996 to 2007. It was originally a great stock. I sold it in 2007 because it was having problems with its tech upgrade to its supply system and it did not seem that it would be fixed anytime soon.
Because of problems, Loblaw's kept their dividends flat between 2005 and 2011. Since then they have been raising the dividends again. The last dividend raise was in 2016 and it was for 4%. The 5 and 10 years dividend growth is low at 3.4% and 1.7% over the past 5 and 10 years. This is due to the number of years with flat dividends. They seem to be back to a dividend growth company.
Dividends are rather low with the current dividend being at 1.43% based on dividends of $1.04 and a stock price of $72.82. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.08% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.20%.
I had this stock from October 1996 to April 2007. I made a total return of 10.14% per year with 8.23% per year from capital gains and 1.91% per year from dividends. If I had kept my stock I would have made 7.43% per year in capital gains and probably some 1.76% in dividends for a total return of 9.19% per year. So if I had kept it I would not have done badly. This is the thing with dividend stocks, you tend to do ok in the long term.
The outstanding shares have increased by 7.9% and 4.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, DRIP and Stock Options and shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. To me this it means I should be look at per share values. It does make a difference. For example the Revenue growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 7.9% and 5.1% per year. The Revenue per Share growth is just 0.08% and 0.90%.
This is not full story because the growth in Revenue has recently improved. If you look at 5 year running averages, Revenue has grown at 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages for Revenue per Share, growth is at 0.23% and 2.07% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. See my blog for more information on 5 Year Running Averages calculations.
When I look at 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios I find them at 17.95, 20.38 and 22.81. The corresponding 10 year values are lower at 13.75, 18.36 and 16.06. The historical values are closer to the 5 year ones at 16.64, 18.75 and 20.52. The current P/E Ratio is 24.85 based on a stock price of $72.82 and 2016 EPS of $2.93. This testing does suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I do wonder about the EPS estimate for 2016. We have the second quarterly report and EPS is only up around 4% if you compare the 12 month period ending at the end of last year and ending at the end of the second quarter. If you strictly look at EPS of this second quarter and last year's second quarter, EPS is up by 7.6%. Analysts say that they expect it to rise by some 94%. Also, last year analysts expected 2015 earnings of $2.67 and they came in at $1.51.
I get a Graham Price of $45.01. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.05, 1.18 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.62 based on a stock price of $72.82. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.37 based on a BVPS of $30.73 and a stock price of $72.82. The current P/B Ratio is some 36% above the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.20%. The current dividend yield at 1.43% is some 19% higher. This would suggest that on an historical basis the stock price is relatively cheap. My records go back some 26 years to 1990.
However, if you look at the median dividend yield over the past 5 years, it is higher at 2.08% and the current rate of 1.43% is some 31% lower. The 10 year median dividend yield is even higher at 2.12% and this is some 33% higher than the current dividend yield.
This testing could suggest that the stock has been relatively lower in the past 5 and 10 years that it has been historically. However, what has happened is that you have higher dividend yields because the company has been paying out a larger proportion of earnings in the past 10 years than historically. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS in 1995 was 20%. The 5 year DPR for EPS in 2015 was 52%. The historical median DPR is 20.8%. So yield has been climbing at the expense of a higher payout ratio.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $79.23. This implies a total return of 10.23% with 1.43% from dividends and 8.80% from capital gains. This is based on a current stock price of $72.82.
Hollie Shaw recently wrote in the Financial Post that Loblaw's cutting prices in top-tier stores is starting to pay off. Cameron Conway on Seeking Alpha does an interesting analysis of this company. Doug Wharley on Aug 1, 2016 on the Cerba Gem talks about analysts raising estimates for this company.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC, OTC-none)... learn more on Monday, August 15, 2016 around 5 pm.
Loblaw Companies Limited, a subsidiary of George Weston Limited, is Canada's largest food retailer and a leading provider of drugstore, general merchandise and financial products and services. Loblaw offers Canada's strongest control (private) label program, including the unique President's Choice, no name and Joe Fresh brands. In addition, the Company makes available to consumers President's Choice financial services and offers the PC point loyalty program. Its web site is here Loblaw Companies Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) but I used to. I have followed this stock for some time. I got the stock from Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth companies. I owned it from 1996 to 2007. It was originally a great stock. I sold it in 2007 because it was having problems with its tech upgrade to its supply system and it did not seem that it would be fixed anytime soon.
Because of problems, Loblaw's kept their dividends flat between 2005 and 2011. Since then they have been raising the dividends again. The last dividend raise was in 2016 and it was for 4%. The 5 and 10 years dividend growth is low at 3.4% and 1.7% over the past 5 and 10 years. This is due to the number of years with flat dividends. They seem to be back to a dividend growth company.
Dividends are rather low with the current dividend being at 1.43% based on dividends of $1.04 and a stock price of $72.82. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.08% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.20%.
I had this stock from October 1996 to April 2007. I made a total return of 10.14% per year with 8.23% per year from capital gains and 1.91% per year from dividends. If I had kept my stock I would have made 7.43% per year in capital gains and probably some 1.76% in dividends for a total return of 9.19% per year. So if I had kept it I would not have done badly. This is the thing with dividend stocks, you tend to do ok in the long term.
The outstanding shares have increased by 7.9% and 4.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, DRIP and Stock Options and shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. To me this it means I should be look at per share values. It does make a difference. For example the Revenue growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 7.9% and 5.1% per year. The Revenue per Share growth is just 0.08% and 0.90%.
This is not full story because the growth in Revenue has recently improved. If you look at 5 year running averages, Revenue has grown at 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages for Revenue per Share, growth is at 0.23% and 2.07% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. See my blog for more information on 5 Year Running Averages calculations.
When I look at 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios I find them at 17.95, 20.38 and 22.81. The corresponding 10 year values are lower at 13.75, 18.36 and 16.06. The historical values are closer to the 5 year ones at 16.64, 18.75 and 20.52. The current P/E Ratio is 24.85 based on a stock price of $72.82 and 2016 EPS of $2.93. This testing does suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I do wonder about the EPS estimate for 2016. We have the second quarterly report and EPS is only up around 4% if you compare the 12 month period ending at the end of last year and ending at the end of the second quarter. If you strictly look at EPS of this second quarter and last year's second quarter, EPS is up by 7.6%. Analysts say that they expect it to rise by some 94%. Also, last year analysts expected 2015 earnings of $2.67 and they came in at $1.51.
I get a Graham Price of $45.01. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.05, 1.18 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.62 based on a stock price of $72.82. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.37 based on a BVPS of $30.73 and a stock price of $72.82. The current P/B Ratio is some 36% above the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.20%. The current dividend yield at 1.43% is some 19% higher. This would suggest that on an historical basis the stock price is relatively cheap. My records go back some 26 years to 1990.
However, if you look at the median dividend yield over the past 5 years, it is higher at 2.08% and the current rate of 1.43% is some 31% lower. The 10 year median dividend yield is even higher at 2.12% and this is some 33% higher than the current dividend yield.
This testing could suggest that the stock has been relatively lower in the past 5 and 10 years that it has been historically. However, what has happened is that you have higher dividend yields because the company has been paying out a larger proportion of earnings in the past 10 years than historically. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS in 1995 was 20%. The 5 year DPR for EPS in 2015 was 52%. The historical median DPR is 20.8%. So yield has been climbing at the expense of a higher payout ratio.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $79.23. This implies a total return of 10.23% with 1.43% from dividends and 8.80% from capital gains. This is based on a current stock price of $72.82.
Hollie Shaw recently wrote in the Financial Post that Loblaw's cutting prices in top-tier stores is starting to pay off. Cameron Conway on Seeking Alpha does an interesting analysis of this company. Doug Wharley on Aug 1, 2016 on the Cerba Gem talks about analysts raising estimates for this company.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC, OTC-none)... learn more on Monday, August 15, 2016 around 5 pm.
Loblaw Companies Limited, a subsidiary of George Weston Limited, is Canada's largest food retailer and a leading provider of drugstore, general merchandise and financial products and services. Loblaw offers Canada's strongest control (private) label program, including the unique President's Choice, no name and Joe Fresh brands. In addition, the Company makes available to consumers President's Choice financial services and offers the PC point loyalty program. Its web site is here Loblaw Companies Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
DirectCash Payments Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably reasonable, but risky. I must admit I am not enamored with this company. They support Payday Loan companies which I do not like. I think that you need more than just cash flow and revenue. Call me old fashioned, but I do like to invest in companies that can make a profit. See my spreadsheet on DirectCash Payments Inc.
This company has been suited because they enabled The Cash Store Financial Services to charge more on loans that than is lawful. Since the lawful interest rate is 60% per year as I understand it, I would not want to invest in a company than charges such rates.
I do not own this stock of DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF). I wanted to review stocks touted in the 2009 Money Show. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trusts being currently good buys with very good yield. This is one stock that was recommended.
I would not buy this stock. Some of its larger customers in the Prepaid Card business are involved in the payday loan business. I do not like payday loan companies. I do not want to make money off the backs of the poor. The company does not seem to make money directly from Payday loans. Maybe I am overly sensitive about this subject, but there are lots of companies to invest in for dividends besides this one.
There are two things to worry about this company right off the bat. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.99 and the Intangible and Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is 1.20. When either of these ratios get close to 1.00 it is time to worry. If the long term debt is the same as the market cap it could be a sign that the company is in financial difficulties. Often when the Intangible and Goodwill assets is at 1.00 or better it is a sign that the company probably should be doing write-offs.
I might as well talk about other things I do not like. The Liquidity Ratio is below 1.00 at just 0.85. This means that current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. You can muck around with this figure and add in cash flow after dividends whereby here it gets to 1.28. Having to find ways of getting a good ratio is not in itself good. Also, 1.28 is not a good ratio as it needs to be at least 1.50 for safety's sake. Also, the Book Value per Share is declining by 7.3% and 4.6% over the past 5 and 10 years.
They started to pay dividends 10 years ago. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at .09% and 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The problem is that there were no dividend increases from 2007 to 2013 inclusive. They did increases in 2014 and 2015. The dividend yield is very high and is currently at 10.97% based on dividends of $1.44 and a stock price of $13.34.
Another problem is that they cannot afford their dividends because of lack of EPS. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is 300%. The 5 year averages is 405%. I prefer companies that have good DPR for EPS, not just for CFPS.
The one possibly positive thing about this company as written in Seeking Alpha below is the company's ability to generate cash flow. Cash Flow has grown at 18% and 16.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 12.6% and 12.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. In 2015, the CFPS covered the dividends with a Dividend Payout Ratio of 34%. Also, the Current Liability Coverage Ratio (or coverage by CF) has been over 1.00 over the past 3 years and for 2015 was 1.16.
However, the company is not so good at EPS. EPS dropped in 2012 and have not recovered. There was an earnings loss in 2015 and losses are expected to continue into 2016 and 2017.
You cannot check the status of the stock price using Price/Earnings per Share Ratios because of very low earnings in 2013 and negative earnings for 2015 and possible negative earnings for 2016 and 2017.
That best I can do for a Graham Price is one of $4.10. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.18, 2.46 and 2.85. These are very high because of the very high P/GP Ratios for 2013 where ratios were in the 20's and 30's. For example, the closing P/GP Ratio was 25.15. For this ratio a good stock price is when the ratio is 1.00 or below, so 25.15 is unbelievable high. The 10 year Ratios are also quite high. However, the current P/GP Ratios is even higher at 3.25 based on a stock price of $13.34. This all suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share is 2.81. The current P/B Ratio is 3.75 a value some 33% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $62.40 and a stock price of $13.34. This suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Part of the problem with this testing is that BVPS is dropping.
The 10 year median dividend yield is 7.75%. There is not historical yield as dividends have only been paid for 10 years. The current dividend is 10.79% based on dividends of $1.44 and a stock price of $13.34. The current dividend yield is some 39% higher than the median value. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, note that the 10 year high dividend yield is over 20% and we are nowhere near that presently. Also, when dividend yield gets so high, it is usually a sign that the market expects dividends to be cut.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus is a Buy, but there are only 3 analysts following this stock. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.83. This implies a total return of 21.96% with 10.79% from dividends and 11.17% from capital gain.
Lee Farnam in December 2015 wrote an interest review of this stock on Seeking Alpha. What he liked was the ability of this company to generate cash flow. The company announced results for the first 3 months of 2016 on Market Wired. They have reached agreement to settle all class action lawsuits filed against the Company relating to the Cash Store Financial Services Inc. This is part of the reason for the earnings loss of 2015. See what analysts say about this stock at Stock Chase . Some worry that the dividends are not sustainable.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF)... learn more on Friday, August 12, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about 5 Year Running Averages... learn more on Thursday, August 11, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Language Animal by Charles Taylor learn more...
DirectCash is the leading provider of ATMs, debit terminals, prepaid phone cards and prepaid cash cards in Canada. They have built a substantial technological, sales and service infrastructure that enables them to offer convenient and secure revenue streams for businesses across the country. DirectCash operates in Canada, the United States and Mexico. Its web site is here DirectCash Payments Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This company has been suited because they enabled The Cash Store Financial Services to charge more on loans that than is lawful. Since the lawful interest rate is 60% per year as I understand it, I would not want to invest in a company than charges such rates.
I do not own this stock of DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF). I wanted to review stocks touted in the 2009 Money Show. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trusts being currently good buys with very good yield. This is one stock that was recommended.
I would not buy this stock. Some of its larger customers in the Prepaid Card business are involved in the payday loan business. I do not like payday loan companies. I do not want to make money off the backs of the poor. The company does not seem to make money directly from Payday loans. Maybe I am overly sensitive about this subject, but there are lots of companies to invest in for dividends besides this one.
There are two things to worry about this company right off the bat. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.99 and the Intangible and Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is 1.20. When either of these ratios get close to 1.00 it is time to worry. If the long term debt is the same as the market cap it could be a sign that the company is in financial difficulties. Often when the Intangible and Goodwill assets is at 1.00 or better it is a sign that the company probably should be doing write-offs.
I might as well talk about other things I do not like. The Liquidity Ratio is below 1.00 at just 0.85. This means that current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. You can muck around with this figure and add in cash flow after dividends whereby here it gets to 1.28. Having to find ways of getting a good ratio is not in itself good. Also, 1.28 is not a good ratio as it needs to be at least 1.50 for safety's sake. Also, the Book Value per Share is declining by 7.3% and 4.6% over the past 5 and 10 years.
They started to pay dividends 10 years ago. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at .09% and 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The problem is that there were no dividend increases from 2007 to 2013 inclusive. They did increases in 2014 and 2015. The dividend yield is very high and is currently at 10.97% based on dividends of $1.44 and a stock price of $13.34.
Another problem is that they cannot afford their dividends because of lack of EPS. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is 300%. The 5 year averages is 405%. I prefer companies that have good DPR for EPS, not just for CFPS.
The one possibly positive thing about this company as written in Seeking Alpha below is the company's ability to generate cash flow. Cash Flow has grown at 18% and 16.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 12.6% and 12.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. In 2015, the CFPS covered the dividends with a Dividend Payout Ratio of 34%. Also, the Current Liability Coverage Ratio (or coverage by CF) has been over 1.00 over the past 3 years and for 2015 was 1.16.
However, the company is not so good at EPS. EPS dropped in 2012 and have not recovered. There was an earnings loss in 2015 and losses are expected to continue into 2016 and 2017.
You cannot check the status of the stock price using Price/Earnings per Share Ratios because of very low earnings in 2013 and negative earnings for 2015 and possible negative earnings for 2016 and 2017.
That best I can do for a Graham Price is one of $4.10. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.18, 2.46 and 2.85. These are very high because of the very high P/GP Ratios for 2013 where ratios were in the 20's and 30's. For example, the closing P/GP Ratio was 25.15. For this ratio a good stock price is when the ratio is 1.00 or below, so 25.15 is unbelievable high. The 10 year Ratios are also quite high. However, the current P/GP Ratios is even higher at 3.25 based on a stock price of $13.34. This all suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share is 2.81. The current P/B Ratio is 3.75 a value some 33% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $62.40 and a stock price of $13.34. This suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Part of the problem with this testing is that BVPS is dropping.
The 10 year median dividend yield is 7.75%. There is not historical yield as dividends have only been paid for 10 years. The current dividend is 10.79% based on dividends of $1.44 and a stock price of $13.34. The current dividend yield is some 39% higher than the median value. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, note that the 10 year high dividend yield is over 20% and we are nowhere near that presently. Also, when dividend yield gets so high, it is usually a sign that the market expects dividends to be cut.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus is a Buy, but there are only 3 analysts following this stock. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.83. This implies a total return of 21.96% with 10.79% from dividends and 11.17% from capital gain.
Lee Farnam in December 2015 wrote an interest review of this stock on Seeking Alpha. What he liked was the ability of this company to generate cash flow. The company announced results for the first 3 months of 2016 on Market Wired. They have reached agreement to settle all class action lawsuits filed against the Company relating to the Cash Store Financial Services Inc. This is part of the reason for the earnings loss of 2015. See what analysts say about this stock at Stock Chase . Some worry that the dividends are not sustainable.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF)... learn more on Friday, August 12, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about 5 Year Running Averages... learn more on Thursday, August 11, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Language Animal by Charles Taylor learn more...
DirectCash is the leading provider of ATMs, debit terminals, prepaid phone cards and prepaid cash cards in Canada. They have built a substantial technological, sales and service infrastructure that enables them to offer convenient and secure revenue streams for businesses across the country. DirectCash operates in Canada, the United States and Mexico. Its web site is here DirectCash Payments Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, August 8, 2016
Ballard Power Systems Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Expensive and risky? Personally, I would not buy this stock. I am following it as I am interested to see how things turn out for this company and fuel cells. See my spreadsheet on Ballard Power Systems Inc.
I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP), but I used to. Back in 1997, I read about Ballard and fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. I sold this stock in 2006 because it had lost its attraction. It did not seem that Ballard fuel cells would be in any car anytime soon. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and never recovered.
Will this stock ever again come close to what I paid for it? I paid $17.35 a share in 1997. I sold in 2006 at $10.82 a share. I lost 5.3% per year or a loss of almost 38%. If I still had this stock I would have lost just over 85% of my purchase value or 9.5% per year.
Analysts are right that cite that the company has good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.90 and the Debt Ratio is 3.24. For this any ratios at or over 1.50 is good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.45 and 0.45. For these ratios anything below 2.00 and 1.00 respectively are good ratios.
However, the outstanding shares have been increasing especially in the past 5 years with growth in shares at 13.35 and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. So for this stock you have to look at per share values.
For example, Revenue per share is down by 14.2% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, but Revenue is only down by 2.8% and is up by 0.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. On the other hand if you look at 5 year running average for Revenue per Share the decline is only 1.7% per year over the past 5 years and Revenue is up by 1.3% per year over the past 5 years using 5 year running averages. The above is in US$ as this company reports in US$.
There is little to value this stock by. They cannot make a profit, the book value is declining and they have no cash flow or dividends. If you look at Revenue in US$ the current P/S Ratio is 3.76 a value some 22.7% above the 10 year median P/S Ratio of 3.06. The current P/S Ratio is based on Revenue estimate for 2016 of $83.4M US$ and Revenue per Share at $0.53. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
You get into the expensive range when the current ratio is 20% or above the 10 year median ratio. So it is not that relatively expensive. On the other hand for some companies a P/S Ratio of 1.00 or below is showing a good stock price. Their P/S Ratio is well above 1.00.
The only other possible valuation is using the Graham Price. For 2018 analysts expect earnings to be $0.01. This would imply a Graham Price of $0.50 CDN$. The current price is $2.63 CDN$. This would give us a Price/Graham Price Ratio of 5.31. A ratio of 5.31 is quite a high P/GP Ratio and implies that the stock price is expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, there are 3 of Buy and Hold. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months consensus stock price is $3.10 CDN$ ($2.38 US$). This implies a total return of 18%.
Karen Thomas wrote a positive article in April at Motley Fool. Unfortunately, I have heard this all before. Travis Hoium in August at Motley Fool talks about the stock jumping 54% in July because they signed a deal. This has also happened many times in the past. James Elliot at Microcap Daily also says positive things about this stock. I am still not biting.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 10, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend growth (again) learn more on Tuesday, August 9, 2016 around 5 pm.
Ballard Power Systems, Inc. is a global leader in PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cell technology. They provide clean energy fuel cell products enabling optimized power systems for a range of applications. Ballard offers smarter solutions for a clean energy future. Its web site is here Ballard Power Systems Inc .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP), but I used to. Back in 1997, I read about Ballard and fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. I sold this stock in 2006 because it had lost its attraction. It did not seem that Ballard fuel cells would be in any car anytime soon. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and never recovered.
Will this stock ever again come close to what I paid for it? I paid $17.35 a share in 1997. I sold in 2006 at $10.82 a share. I lost 5.3% per year or a loss of almost 38%. If I still had this stock I would have lost just over 85% of my purchase value or 9.5% per year.
Analysts are right that cite that the company has good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.90 and the Debt Ratio is 3.24. For this any ratios at or over 1.50 is good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.45 and 0.45. For these ratios anything below 2.00 and 1.00 respectively are good ratios.
However, the outstanding shares have been increasing especially in the past 5 years with growth in shares at 13.35 and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. So for this stock you have to look at per share values.
For example, Revenue per share is down by 14.2% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, but Revenue is only down by 2.8% and is up by 0.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. On the other hand if you look at 5 year running average for Revenue per Share the decline is only 1.7% per year over the past 5 years and Revenue is up by 1.3% per year over the past 5 years using 5 year running averages. The above is in US$ as this company reports in US$.
There is little to value this stock by. They cannot make a profit, the book value is declining and they have no cash flow or dividends. If you look at Revenue in US$ the current P/S Ratio is 3.76 a value some 22.7% above the 10 year median P/S Ratio of 3.06. The current P/S Ratio is based on Revenue estimate for 2016 of $83.4M US$ and Revenue per Share at $0.53. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
You get into the expensive range when the current ratio is 20% or above the 10 year median ratio. So it is not that relatively expensive. On the other hand for some companies a P/S Ratio of 1.00 or below is showing a good stock price. Their P/S Ratio is well above 1.00.
The only other possible valuation is using the Graham Price. For 2018 analysts expect earnings to be $0.01. This would imply a Graham Price of $0.50 CDN$. The current price is $2.63 CDN$. This would give us a Price/Graham Price Ratio of 5.31. A ratio of 5.31 is quite a high P/GP Ratio and implies that the stock price is expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, there are 3 of Buy and Hold. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months consensus stock price is $3.10 CDN$ ($2.38 US$). This implies a total return of 18%.
Karen Thomas wrote a positive article in April at Motley Fool. Unfortunately, I have heard this all before. Travis Hoium in August at Motley Fool talks about the stock jumping 54% in July because they signed a deal. This has also happened many times in the past. James Elliot at Microcap Daily also says positive things about this stock. I am still not biting.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 10, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend growth (again) learn more on Tuesday, August 9, 2016 around 5 pm.
Ballard Power Systems, Inc. is a global leader in PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cell technology. They provide clean energy fuel cell products enabling optimized power systems for a range of applications. Ballard offers smarter solutions for a clean energy future. Its web site is here Ballard Power Systems Inc .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, August 5, 2016
Savaria Corporation
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Relatively expensive. There is nothing wrong with this stock, but I think that the stock price is too high to consider buying at this time. I would rate it a Hold. I do not sell good companies just because the price is expensive. The price would have to get into a stupid range for me to sell. See my spreadsheet on Savaria Corporation.
I do not own this stock of Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF). I got this stock off the Dividend Blogger site that no longer exists. I am always interested in dividend growth small cap stock. The first few years of accounting were rather confusing, but I think I figured them out in the end. They also do not publish financial statements on their site.
Dividends are moderate to good with moderate to good dividend increases. The current dividend is 2.33%. They started dividend in 2005 and the median dividend yield since then is 4.08% and the 5 year median is at 3.07%. The 5 and 10 year dividend increase is at 15.1% and 21.1% per year.
The current Dividend Payout Ratios are a little high for this sort of company at 60.7% for EPS in 2015. They have gotten too high in the past with DPRs over 100% in 2011, 2012 and 2014. They are expected to be around 60% again on 2016 before falling to around 47% in 2017 and 42% in 2018. The DPR for CFPS is better with a ratio of 39% in 2015 and a 5 year median of 49%.
Outstanding shares have increased a lot in the past 5 year with 8.2% increase per year over this time period. The 10 year increase is a lot lower at just 1%, but this is because the company did a big buy back in 2009. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, Stock Options and Share Conversion. The shares have decreased due to buy backs. So for me, per share growth is more important especially over the past 5 years.
They are nicely growing their earnings and cash flow, but not so much their revenue. EPS is up by 21% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 13% and 14.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However Revenue per Share is up by only 0.3% over the past 5 years. The 10 year increase is better at 8.3% per year growth.
This stock has recently had a good run up in price. The total return over the past 5 year is 49.26% per year with 43.36% from capital gain and dividend of 5.90%. The 10 year total return is still good, but a lot less at 18.59% per year with 15.70% per year from capital gains and 2.88% per year from dividends.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.44, 17.17 and 19.89. The 10 year corresponding values are 10.91, 15.40 and 19.40. The15 year values are 13.04, 17.17 and 20.38. It is interesting that the 5 year run up in stock prices seems to be the results of higher P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 26.06 based on a stock price of $8.60 and 2016 EPS of $0.33. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham price of 3.51. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.17 and 1.42. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.45 based on a stock price of $8.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.85. The current P/B ratio is 5.19 a value some 180% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $1.66 and a stock price of $8.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median dividend yield is 4.08% a value some 43% higher than the current dividend yield of 2.33% based on a stock price of $8.60 and dividends $0.20. The current dividend yield is even some 37% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield of 3.70%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $8.88. This implies a total return of 5.58% with 3.26% from capital gains and 2.33% from dividends based on a stock price $8.60.
Harley Jackson write in Consumer Eagle that analysts expect EPS to be $0.09 for the second quarter. In this press release via Market Wired Savaria says it has completed its Acquisition of the Automotive Division of Shoppers Home Health Care. Dan Stringer on Seeking Alpha in April 2016 wrote a good report on this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP)... learn more on Monday, August 8, 2016 around 5 pm.
Savaria Corporation is North America's leader in the accessibility industry focused on meeting the needs of people with mobility challenges. Savaria designs, manufactures, installs and distributes primarily elevators for home and commercial use, as well as stairlifts and vertical and inclined platform lifts. In addition, it converts and adapts minivans to be wheelchair accessible. Its web site is here Savaria Corporation.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF). I got this stock off the Dividend Blogger site that no longer exists. I am always interested in dividend growth small cap stock. The first few years of accounting were rather confusing, but I think I figured them out in the end. They also do not publish financial statements on their site.
Dividends are moderate to good with moderate to good dividend increases. The current dividend is 2.33%. They started dividend in 2005 and the median dividend yield since then is 4.08% and the 5 year median is at 3.07%. The 5 and 10 year dividend increase is at 15.1% and 21.1% per year.
The current Dividend Payout Ratios are a little high for this sort of company at 60.7% for EPS in 2015. They have gotten too high in the past with DPRs over 100% in 2011, 2012 and 2014. They are expected to be around 60% again on 2016 before falling to around 47% in 2017 and 42% in 2018. The DPR for CFPS is better with a ratio of 39% in 2015 and a 5 year median of 49%.
Outstanding shares have increased a lot in the past 5 year with 8.2% increase per year over this time period. The 10 year increase is a lot lower at just 1%, but this is because the company did a big buy back in 2009. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, Stock Options and Share Conversion. The shares have decreased due to buy backs. So for me, per share growth is more important especially over the past 5 years.
They are nicely growing their earnings and cash flow, but not so much their revenue. EPS is up by 21% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 13% and 14.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However Revenue per Share is up by only 0.3% over the past 5 years. The 10 year increase is better at 8.3% per year growth.
This stock has recently had a good run up in price. The total return over the past 5 year is 49.26% per year with 43.36% from capital gain and dividend of 5.90%. The 10 year total return is still good, but a lot less at 18.59% per year with 15.70% per year from capital gains and 2.88% per year from dividends.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.44, 17.17 and 19.89. The 10 year corresponding values are 10.91, 15.40 and 19.40. The15 year values are 13.04, 17.17 and 20.38. It is interesting that the 5 year run up in stock prices seems to be the results of higher P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 26.06 based on a stock price of $8.60 and 2016 EPS of $0.33. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham price of 3.51. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.17 and 1.42. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.45 based on a stock price of $8.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.85. The current P/B ratio is 5.19 a value some 180% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $1.66 and a stock price of $8.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median dividend yield is 4.08% a value some 43% higher than the current dividend yield of 2.33% based on a stock price of $8.60 and dividends $0.20. The current dividend yield is even some 37% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield of 3.70%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $8.88. This implies a total return of 5.58% with 3.26% from capital gains and 2.33% from dividends based on a stock price $8.60.
Harley Jackson write in Consumer Eagle that analysts expect EPS to be $0.09 for the second quarter. In this press release via Market Wired Savaria says it has completed its Acquisition of the Automotive Division of Shoppers Home Health Care. Dan Stringer on Seeking Alpha in April 2016 wrote a good report on this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP)... learn more on Monday, August 8, 2016 around 5 pm.
Savaria Corporation is North America's leader in the accessibility industry focused on meeting the needs of people with mobility challenges. Savaria designs, manufactures, installs and distributes primarily elevators for home and commercial use, as well as stairlifts and vertical and inclined platform lifts. In addition, it converts and adapts minivans to be wheelchair accessible. Its web site is here Savaria Corporation.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
TECSYS Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price seems a little high. Tech stocks often have rather high valuations, but this current price seems a little too high. It might be wise to get a pullback in price closer to $5.00 to pick stock up at a good price. See my spreadsheet on TECSYS Inc.
I own this stock of TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF). I came across this stock when I was looking for a dividend paying small cap stock as a filler stock. I consider a filler stock to be one to soak up small amounts of investment money that I have left over in my account, especially in the TFSA after I have made my main purchase for the year.
The first thing I noticed in that there is a lot of insider selling. Usually insider selling is relatively small to the company's market cap (like around 0.02%). In this case it is 1.94%. It is a rather small company but market cap is still $141M. Even David Brereton, the founder and chairman sold stock over the past year. He went from owner 27.3% of the company to 23.6%. In fact David Brereton has been selling off stock over the last few years. In 2013 he owned 30.8% of the outstanding share, in 2014 he owned 27.9% and in 2015 he owned 27.3% as per above.
Also both the CEO and CFO sold stock last year. The trouble with people selling is that you never know why. They could just need the money. This is not the first time that the chairman and the CEO have sold stock. Both are of the Brereton family.
They started to pay dividends in 2008. Dividend yield is low and growth is moderate. The current dividend yield is 1.04% based on dividends $0.12 per year and a stock price of $11.50. The 5 year median dividend yield is also low at 1.57%. The 8 year median dividend is higher at 2.53%. The dividends have grown at 12.7% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. The last dividend increase to occur was in 2016 and it was a 10% increase in dividends.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 26% in 2015. The 5 year median is higher at 67%. The DPR for EPS for 2017 is expected to be around 30%. (This company has a reporting date in April each year, so the last annual report was for April 2016 and we are now in the 2017 financial year.)
Outstanding shares have gone down by 1% and up by 1% over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and Stock Options and decreased due to Buy Backs. The stock option plan has been cancelled. There has been good growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow.
Revenue is up by 13.6% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 27% per year over the past 5 years. I do not have EPS per year over the past 10 years as EPS was negative 10 years ago. However, total EPS is up by 425% over the past 10 years. Cash Flow is up by 30.5% over the past 5 years. Total Cash Flow is up by 998% over the past 10 years. Cash Flow was also negative 10 years ago.
The 5 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 21.69, 29.912 and 38.13. The corresponding 10 year values are lower at 15.00, 19.15 and 23.46. The historical values are even lower at 8.69, 11.51 and 14.33. The problem is that Tech companies tend to have rather high valuation, especially once they get going. The current P/E Ratio is 30.26 based on a stock price of $11.50 and 2017 EPS of $0.38. This P/E would seem a little high and also above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $4.37. The 10 year median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.94, 1.19 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.63 based on a stock price of $11.50. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 1.51. The current P/B Ratio is 5.16 based on BVPS of $2.23 and a stock price of $11.50. The current P/B Ratio is some 242% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high. The problem is that stock price (36% over 5 years) has been increasing much quicker than Book Value (9.2% over 5 years).
The current dividend yield is 1.04% based on dividends of $0.12 and a stock price of $11.50. The historical dividend yield is 2.53% a value some 58% higher. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I only find one and it is a Buy Recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $12.30. This implies a total return of 8% with 6.965 from capital gains and 1.04% from dividends.
This is an article by Dean Beeby of the Canadian Press published in the Toronto Star. TECSYS's project for LCBO was more expensive and a year late. They quoted the fact that they could not use TECSYS's system out of the box and also changes to the original specs. I worked in IT. First it should have been known at the beginning that the system would not be used as is. Secondly, you can never ever bring projects in on time and on budget when there are changes to the specifications. Changes to the specifications should never be allowed. If really necessary, they should be done later.
Jared Coughlin at Community Financial News about a report from research analysts at Cormark on TECSYS.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Pulse Seismic Inc. (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF)... learn more on Friday, August 5, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy August 2016... learn more on Thursday, August 4, 2016 around 5 pm.
TECSYS Inc. is a supply chain management software provider that delivers powerful enterprise distribution, warehouse and transportation logistics software solutions. The company's customers include about 600 mid-size and Fortune 1000 corporations in healthcare, heavy equipment, third-party logistics, and general wholesale high- volume distribution industries. Its web site is here TECSYS Inc. .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF). I came across this stock when I was looking for a dividend paying small cap stock as a filler stock. I consider a filler stock to be one to soak up small amounts of investment money that I have left over in my account, especially in the TFSA after I have made my main purchase for the year.
The first thing I noticed in that there is a lot of insider selling. Usually insider selling is relatively small to the company's market cap (like around 0.02%). In this case it is 1.94%. It is a rather small company but market cap is still $141M. Even David Brereton, the founder and chairman sold stock over the past year. He went from owner 27.3% of the company to 23.6%. In fact David Brereton has been selling off stock over the last few years. In 2013 he owned 30.8% of the outstanding share, in 2014 he owned 27.9% and in 2015 he owned 27.3% as per above.
Also both the CEO and CFO sold stock last year. The trouble with people selling is that you never know why. They could just need the money. This is not the first time that the chairman and the CEO have sold stock. Both are of the Brereton family.
They started to pay dividends in 2008. Dividend yield is low and growth is moderate. The current dividend yield is 1.04% based on dividends $0.12 per year and a stock price of $11.50. The 5 year median dividend yield is also low at 1.57%. The 8 year median dividend is higher at 2.53%. The dividends have grown at 12.7% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. The last dividend increase to occur was in 2016 and it was a 10% increase in dividends.
The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 26% in 2015. The 5 year median is higher at 67%. The DPR for EPS for 2017 is expected to be around 30%. (This company has a reporting date in April each year, so the last annual report was for April 2016 and we are now in the 2017 financial year.)
Outstanding shares have gone down by 1% and up by 1% over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and Stock Options and decreased due to Buy Backs. The stock option plan has been cancelled. There has been good growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow.
Revenue is up by 13.6% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 27% per year over the past 5 years. I do not have EPS per year over the past 10 years as EPS was negative 10 years ago. However, total EPS is up by 425% over the past 10 years. Cash Flow is up by 30.5% over the past 5 years. Total Cash Flow is up by 998% over the past 10 years. Cash Flow was also negative 10 years ago.
The 5 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 21.69, 29.912 and 38.13. The corresponding 10 year values are lower at 15.00, 19.15 and 23.46. The historical values are even lower at 8.69, 11.51 and 14.33. The problem is that Tech companies tend to have rather high valuation, especially once they get going. The current P/E Ratio is 30.26 based on a stock price of $11.50 and 2017 EPS of $0.38. This P/E would seem a little high and also above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $4.37. The 10 year median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.94, 1.19 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.63 based on a stock price of $11.50. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 1.51. The current P/B Ratio is 5.16 based on BVPS of $2.23 and a stock price of $11.50. The current P/B Ratio is some 242% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high. The problem is that stock price (36% over 5 years) has been increasing much quicker than Book Value (9.2% over 5 years).
The current dividend yield is 1.04% based on dividends of $0.12 and a stock price of $11.50. The historical dividend yield is 2.53% a value some 58% higher. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively high.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I only find one and it is a Buy Recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $12.30. This implies a total return of 8% with 6.965 from capital gains and 1.04% from dividends.
This is an article by Dean Beeby of the Canadian Press published in the Toronto Star. TECSYS's project for LCBO was more expensive and a year late. They quoted the fact that they could not use TECSYS's system out of the box and also changes to the original specs. I worked in IT. First it should have been known at the beginning that the system would not be used as is. Secondly, you can never ever bring projects in on time and on budget when there are changes to the specifications. Changes to the specifications should never be allowed. If really necessary, they should be done later.
Jared Coughlin at Community Financial News about a report from research analysts at Cormark on TECSYS.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Pulse Seismic Inc. (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF)... learn more on Friday, August 5, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy August 2016... learn more on Thursday, August 4, 2016 around 5 pm.
TECSYS Inc. is a supply chain management software provider that delivers powerful enterprise distribution, warehouse and transportation logistics software solutions. The company's customers include about 600 mid-size and Fortune 1000 corporations in healthcare, heavy equipment, third-party logistics, and general wholesale high- volume distribution industries. Its web site is here TECSYS Inc. .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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