Ag Growth International

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price reasonable, below median. This stock price currently looks good. I am holding on to my shares as I think that eventually, this stock will again be a dividend growth stock. This is a good diversification for my portfolio. See my spreadsheet on Ag Growth International .

I own this stock of Ag Growth International (TSX-AFN, OTC- AGGZF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the Money Show of 2009. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trust being currently good buys with very good yields. Its median yield in 2009 was 7.9%. It was on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats and this is why I first investigated this company. This company has had some problems lately, but none of it has changed my mind about keeping this stock.

This company used to be an income trust. Prior to changing to a corporation, this stock was increasing their dividends. After the change, the dividends have remained flat. The last year of a dividend increase was 2011. As under an income trust, the dividends are still paid monthly.

This company has not been able to afford its dividends since 2010. It has been a long slow recovery since the last recession and this has affected a lot of companies. Year 2015 was not a good year for this company as it had an earnings loss. The company did better for the first quarter of 2016. Analysts expect that the company will do better in 2016 and be able to cover the dividend with earnings. They do not expect the company to cut the dividends.

Outstanding shares have been increasing. The outstanding shares have increased by 3.3% and 3.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. So as a shareholder, I am more interested in the per share growth to judge if the company has growth. For example, Revenue is up by 11.4% and 18.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 7.8% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. There is a difference in growth and the real growth is the per share growth. It is still quite good.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.22, 21.44 and 28.08. The corresponding 10 year values are 13.02, 18.86 and 24.27. I have 12 years of data and over this period the median values even lower at 10.83, 16.00 and 21.17. The current P/E Ratio is 15.51 based on a stock price of $38.15 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.46. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $28.28. The 10 years Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.11, 1.53 and 1.96. The current P/GR Ratio is 1.30 based on a stock price of $38.15. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.56. The current P/B Ratio is 2.46 based on a stock price of $38.15 and BVPS of $15.49. The current P/B Ratio is some 3.9% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

You cannot really do a test based on dividend yield because this company used to be an income trust. However, the 5 year median Dividend Yield is 5.78% and the current Dividend Yield at 6.29% is some 8.8% higher. The current Dividend Yield is based on dividends of $2.40 and a stock price of $38.15. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year P/S Ratio is 1.66. The current P/S Ratio is 0.99 based on 2016 Revenue estimate of $561M, Revenue per Share estimate of $38.45and stock price of $38.15. The current P/S Ratio is some 40% lower than the 10 year P/S Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 10.75. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.79 based on 2016 estimate for CFPS of $4.34. The current ratio is 18% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. The current ratio would have to be 20% lower than the 10 year ratio for the stock price to be considered cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. There is more Buy than Hold recommendations and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $37.79. This is a stock price below the current price and implies a total return of 5.35% with 6.29% from dividends and a capital loss of $0.94%.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase . They had problems last year because of drought and the stock was oversold. The company says they will not cut dividends. On Seeking Alpha you often get transcripts and this one is the Q1 2016 Earnings Conference Call of May 5, 2016. I find analysis more interesting and Cameron Conway did one last year at Seeking Alpha.

I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here andhere.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd (TSX-BIN, NYSE-BIN)... learn more . Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Me and CDZ... learn more on Tuesday, May 17, 2016 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Art of Risk by Kayt Sukel learn more...

Ag Growth International (AGI) is a leading manufacturer of portable and stationary grain handling, storage and conditioning equipment, including augers, belt conveyors, storage bins, handling accessories and aeration equipment. AGI has manufacturing facilities in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom and Finland. Its web site is here Ag Growth International .

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk . The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

The Art of Risk by Kayt Sukel

This book's full title is The Art of Risk: The New Science of Courage, Caution and Chance. Kayt Sukel has her own web site for this book here. There is a blog on her site.

I am interested in risk because I make my living investing in the stock market. I did not really learn anything new from this book, so that was a bit of a disappointment. I have always understood myself very well. I also get prepared by investigating stocks I invest in. Why I continued reading this book was because it was an easy read with some interesting stories

People at Good Reads mostly liked it. But they did not seem to get much more out of the book than I did. There is a review at Kirkus. Reviewer ends up saying about the book and risk that it was "Not an in-depth trip but an enjoyable tour".

Kayt Sukel talks at TedMed about risk. This is a bit off topic, but in this video Kayt Sukel talks about another of her books about Sex at Chicago Ideas Week. This is Your Brain on Sex is the name of the book. This is a video of Kayt Sukel being interviewed on radio. There is also a nice review by Meredith Knight on Scientific American.

An index of the books I have reviewed are on my website at Books. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk . The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.