Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Yield is great. If you go by the yield, the stock price looks quite attractive. If you use valuation since the company has become a corporation, it looks rather cheap. Insider buying is relatively high at 0.09% of market cap. See my spreadsheet on Rogers Sugar Inc.
I do not own this stock of Rogers Sugar Inc. (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF). This stock was brought to my attention by Dividend Ninja. This company used to be a Unit Trust (TSX-RSI.UN) but it has recently converted to corporation. On change to a corporation, it lowered its dividend.
This is not a dividend growth stock. When they switched to a corporation they decreased dividends as a lot of other companies that made that switch did. However, I have dividend information going back to 1998 and dividends have both increased and decreased in the past.
They are still paying out more in dividends than they can afford. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS rose last year from 116% to 148%. It is not expected to be below 100% for the next 3 years. Another point is that the book value is going down, because they are paying out more in dividends than they can afford.
This stock has a high dividend yield. The current dividend yield is 8.6% and has a 5 year median dividend yield of 6.2%. An 8.6% yield on your money is quite good. With no analyst suggesting that this dividend will be cut, this is currently a very good return on your money.
The 5 and 10 years total return is 4.45% and 12.49% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to dividends is at 8.94% and 11.21% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to capital loss is at 4.49% over the past 5 years and to capital gain is at 1.28% over the past 10 years.
Since a peak in 2012, this stock's price has been moving south. The stock lost 10% in 2013, 11.9% in 2014 and 10.4% in 2015. So far this year the stock is down by 1.4%. If the price drop moderates then you could earn a nice dividend return. This stock is never going to earn much in the way of capital gains.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.49, 16.21 and 18.52. The corresponding 10 year ratios are a lot lower at 9.59, 10.71 and 11.89. The historical median P/E Ratio is 9.84 and much closer to the 10 year values. The current P/E Ratio is 11.94. This P/E Ratio is based on a stock price of $4.18 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.35.
If you use the last 5 years of valuations, this stock price is relatively cheap. If you use the 10 year valuations, the current P/E Ratio shows that the stock price is relatively expensive. I find this interesting. It probably has to do with the fact that the company changed from an income trust to a corporation. We should probably use the valuations of the last 5 years.
I get a Graham Price of $4.47. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76, 0.87 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.93. This is based on a stock price of $4.18. This stock price testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
If I use dividend yield in checking the stock price, I see that the 5 year median 6.18% against the current dividend yield of 8.61%. There is a 39% difference and this testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively cheap.
However, if you use the historical median dividend yield, which is 10.01%, you again get a test that suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. There is a 14% difference between the current dividend yield of 8.61% and the historical dividend yield.
The thing is that the dividend yield would have been quite high in the past as this stock was an Income Trust since 1997 when it was listed and 2011. The yield at first came down to the 4% to 6% range. However, it has been climbing again in recent years.
There are 4 analysts' following this stock and all the recommendations are a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $4.31. This implies a total return of 11.72% with 8.61% from dividends and 3.11% from capital gains.
Timberwolf Equity Research on Seeking Alpha basically says the same thing I am, good dividend and limited growth. James Dunn on OCTA Finance talks about National Bank rating this stock at Sector Perform in November 2015. Sector Perform is the same as a Hold.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here
Rogers Sugar Inc. was established to hold all of the common shares and notes of Lantic Inc. Lantic Inc. is a refiner, processor, distributor and marketer of sugar products in Canada. Its web site is here Rogers Sugar Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, January 29, 2016
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Enghouse Systems Ltd.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: expensive, losing momentum. Since hitting a peak in early January of this year, this stock has been going south. Great stock, but it seems to currently have gotten a little too high. It has also lost its upwards momentum. See my spreadsheet on Enghouse Systems Ltd.
I do not own this stock of Enghouse Systems Ltd. (TSX-ESL, OTC-EGHSF). This stock has been recommended by Keystone Financial Publishing as a good Small Cap tech stock with dividend.
This company started dividends in 2008, some 8 years ago. Dividends yields are quite low, but the dividend growth is good. The current dividend is 0.80% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $60.55. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.36% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.71%. Dividends have grown at 25.7% and 23.6% over the past 5 and 7 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are quite moderate. The DPR for EPS for 2015 was 37.6% and it 5 year median is 31.5%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 20.11% with a 5 year median of 17.7%.
Because the current dividend is so low at just 0.8%, in 5 years' time if dividends continue to grow at 23.6%, then the yield on a purchase today would be just 1.22%. In 10 years' time, if dividends continue to grow at 23.6%, then the yield on a purchase today would be 6.70%.
However, if you purchase this stock when the dividend is at its historical median of 1.71%, then the dividend yield on a purchase today would be 2.61% in 5 years' time or 14.23% in 10 years. Starting dividend yield can really make a difference in what yield you earn in the future on your original purchase price.
The growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow has been very good on this stock. For example, Revenues have grown at 24.3% and 19.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 22.9% and 18.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
My 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.70, 23.12 and 30.54. The 10 year corresponding ratios are similar at 17.65, 22.80 and 29.53. I get a current P/E Ratio of 36.70 based on a stock price of $60.55 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.65. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $18.43. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.12, 1.65 and 1.34. The current P/GP Ratio is 3.28. You expect for a fast growing tech stock that the P/GP Ratio would be high, but a ratio of 3.28 is a little too high. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I see Buy and Hold recommendations. There is only 2 analysts following this stock and the consensus would therefore be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $75.00. This implies a total return of 24.66% with 23.86% from capital gains and 0.79% from dividends. This stock hit just over $75.00 in January, but has been south since then. Stocks tend to be overbought or oversold.
Insider selling over the past year is high at 1.39% of market cap. For the stocks I track the median Net Insider selling is 0.02% and 75% of the stock has NIS at a 0.11% or less. The company gives out a lot of stock options, for 2015 stock options were at 1.59% of the outstanding shares. Most of the insider selling has happened since September of 2015 and there was a cluster of selling between $70 and $75.
Technical Analysis on 4 Traders give Bearish in the Short Term and Bullish in the Long Term. This makes sense. The Catalyst Tree on Seeking Alpha gives a glowing report on this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see the reports here and here.
Enghouse Systems Limited is a global provider of enterprise software solutions serving a variety of distinct vertical markets. Its strategy is to build a large diverse enterprise software company through strategic acquisitions and managed growth. Its web site is here Enghouse Systems Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Enghouse Systems Ltd. (TSX-ESL, OTC-EGHSF). This stock has been recommended by Keystone Financial Publishing as a good Small Cap tech stock with dividend.
This company started dividends in 2008, some 8 years ago. Dividends yields are quite low, but the dividend growth is good. The current dividend is 0.80% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $60.55. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.36% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.71%. Dividends have grown at 25.7% and 23.6% over the past 5 and 7 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are quite moderate. The DPR for EPS for 2015 was 37.6% and it 5 year median is 31.5%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 20.11% with a 5 year median of 17.7%.
Because the current dividend is so low at just 0.8%, in 5 years' time if dividends continue to grow at 23.6%, then the yield on a purchase today would be just 1.22%. In 10 years' time, if dividends continue to grow at 23.6%, then the yield on a purchase today would be 6.70%.
However, if you purchase this stock when the dividend is at its historical median of 1.71%, then the dividend yield on a purchase today would be 2.61% in 5 years' time or 14.23% in 10 years. Starting dividend yield can really make a difference in what yield you earn in the future on your original purchase price.
The growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow has been very good on this stock. For example, Revenues have grown at 24.3% and 19.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 22.9% and 18.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
My 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.70, 23.12 and 30.54. The 10 year corresponding ratios are similar at 17.65, 22.80 and 29.53. I get a current P/E Ratio of 36.70 based on a stock price of $60.55 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.65. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $18.43. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.12, 1.65 and 1.34. The current P/GP Ratio is 3.28. You expect for a fast growing tech stock that the P/GP Ratio would be high, but a ratio of 3.28 is a little too high. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I see Buy and Hold recommendations. There is only 2 analysts following this stock and the consensus would therefore be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $75.00. This implies a total return of 24.66% with 23.86% from capital gains and 0.79% from dividends. This stock hit just over $75.00 in January, but has been south since then. Stocks tend to be overbought or oversold.
Insider selling over the past year is high at 1.39% of market cap. For the stocks I track the median Net Insider selling is 0.02% and 75% of the stock has NIS at a 0.11% or less. The company gives out a lot of stock options, for 2015 stock options were at 1.59% of the outstanding shares. Most of the insider selling has happened since September of 2015 and there was a cluster of selling between $70 and $75.
Technical Analysis on 4 Traders give Bearish in the Short Term and Bullish in the Long Term. This makes sense. The Catalyst Tree on Seeking Alpha gives a glowing report on this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see the reports here and here.
Enghouse Systems Limited is a global provider of enterprise software solutions serving a variety of distinct vertical markets. Its strategy is to build a large diverse enterprise software company through strategic acquisitions and managed growth. Its web site is here Enghouse Systems Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, January 25, 2016
Transcontinental Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Recovering and cheap. I think that this company is finding its feet again. It has made good efforts to recover and I still think it is relatively cheap. See my spreadsheet on Transcontinental Inc.
I own this stock of Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL, OTC-TCLAF). This is a dividend growth stock. It was on a number of dividend lists. However, it fell on hard times after 2008, but currently seems to be recovering. It is still on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index.
The question I think you have to ask yourself about this stock is, is it making any progress?
They have not made much progress in regards to Revenue. It was down by some 3% in 2015 and is only expected to rise by 1.4% in 2016. Over the past 5 and 10 years Revenue is down by around 1% per year.
EPS is up by 10.2% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is only because 2015 was a great year. The 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years for EPS is down by 4.9% and 6.6% per year. They could not cover their dividends in 2012 and 2013. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2015 was 20% for EPS and 13.8% for CFPS. So DPR are currently good.
However, this company did but out an adjusted EPS value since 2005. Companies do that when they feel that the EPS calculated in the approved normal way does not properly reflect how well they are really doing. Here the growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 4.1% and 4.4% per year. The 5 year running average growth over the past 5 and 10 years is similar at 4.7% and 5.2% per year.
What would support having an adjusted EPS this is that the Return on Equity on comprehensive income has been higher over the past 3 years than for the ROE on net income. The ROE on comprehensive income was 27% in 2015 and it has a 5 year value of 9.6%. The ROE on net income was 25.8% in 2015 and its 5 year median value was 5.9%.
Growth in cash flow has been moderate. Cash Flow has grown at 3.7% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 4.3% and 5.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. (There is no discrepancy over the 5 year running average growth in CFPS which runs at 4.6% and 4.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.)
I just bought this stock in January of 2015. My total return to date is 15.9% per year with 12.1% from capital gains and 3.8% from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 12.88% and 1.36% per year with 5.89 and 2.98% per year from dividends and 6.99% and a capital loss of 1.63% per year
The debt ratios are a mixed bag. The Liquidity Ratio has never been high. The one for 2015 was 1.26 and it has a 5 year median of 1.00. I would rather this be 1.50 or more. If you add in cash flow after dividends the ratio becomes 1.78 for 2015 with a 5 year median of 1.62. So the company depends on cash flow to meet current liabilities would be the implication of this.
The Debt Ratio has always been good. The current one is 1.93 and its 5 year median is 1.78. I like this ratio to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 are 2.08 and 1.08 and their 5 year ratios are 2.09 and 1.13. These ratios have been declining since 2012. I prefer these to be less than 2.00 and less than 1.00 respectively. However, these ratios are not really out of line for this sort of company.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.33, 5.24 and 6.14. The corresponding 10 year ratios are a little higher at 7.85, 8.98 and 10.11. The current P/E Ratio is 7.28 based on a stock price $17.68 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.43. Analysts think that the EPS will drop by some 14% in 2016. Analyst's estimates for EPS and Adjusted EPS are quite close for the future. It would seem to me that the P/E Ratio is relatively reasonable and below the median.
(The same test using Adjusted EPS would get you a relatively reasonable price above the median. In this case the P/E Ratio would currently be 7.34)
I get a Graham Price of $26.66. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.71, 0.89 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.66. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The historical median dividend is 1.29% and the current dividend yield is 3.85%. The current dividend yield is based on $0.68 and a stock price of $17.68. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $20.44. This implies a total return of 19.46% with 3.85% from dividends and 15.61% from capital gains. Recommendations and total return does not match up as a 19% return is high for a Hold recommendation. Also, analysts still expect the dividends to grow.
In this article in the Financial Post from by Christina Pellegrini talks about how this company is a winner with Rogers and Toronto Star cutting back on their printing and giving it to Transcontinental. When TV came into wide spread use, everyone was saying that Radio was dead. However, people are still making a living off of radio. It is not that new technology does not change things; they just do not change things in ways people expect.
Nelson Smith of Motley Fool talks about three dividend stocks I like that aren't on many investors' radars. One of these companies is Transcontinental. This report in Zolmax talks about recent analysts' rating on Transcontinental. By the way a "sector perform" rating is a Hold rating.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see these reports here and here.
Transcontinental creates marketing products and services that allow businesses to attract, reach and retain their target customers. The Corporation is the largest printer in Canada and the third-largest in North America. Its web site is here Transcontinental Inc.
Transcontinental creates marketing products and services that allow businesses to attract, reach and retain their target customers. The Corporation is the largest printer in Canada and the third-largest in North America. Its web site is here Transcontinental Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL, OTC-TCLAF). This is a dividend growth stock. It was on a number of dividend lists. However, it fell on hard times after 2008, but currently seems to be recovering. It is still on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index.
The question I think you have to ask yourself about this stock is, is it making any progress?
They have not made much progress in regards to Revenue. It was down by some 3% in 2015 and is only expected to rise by 1.4% in 2016. Over the past 5 and 10 years Revenue is down by around 1% per year.
EPS is up by 10.2% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is only because 2015 was a great year. The 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years for EPS is down by 4.9% and 6.6% per year. They could not cover their dividends in 2012 and 2013. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2015 was 20% for EPS and 13.8% for CFPS. So DPR are currently good.
However, this company did but out an adjusted EPS value since 2005. Companies do that when they feel that the EPS calculated in the approved normal way does not properly reflect how well they are really doing. Here the growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 4.1% and 4.4% per year. The 5 year running average growth over the past 5 and 10 years is similar at 4.7% and 5.2% per year.
What would support having an adjusted EPS this is that the Return on Equity on comprehensive income has been higher over the past 3 years than for the ROE on net income. The ROE on comprehensive income was 27% in 2015 and it has a 5 year value of 9.6%. The ROE on net income was 25.8% in 2015 and its 5 year median value was 5.9%.
Growth in cash flow has been moderate. Cash Flow has grown at 3.7% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 4.3% and 5.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. (There is no discrepancy over the 5 year running average growth in CFPS which runs at 4.6% and 4.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.)
I just bought this stock in January of 2015. My total return to date is 15.9% per year with 12.1% from capital gains and 3.8% from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 12.88% and 1.36% per year with 5.89 and 2.98% per year from dividends and 6.99% and a capital loss of 1.63% per year
The debt ratios are a mixed bag. The Liquidity Ratio has never been high. The one for 2015 was 1.26 and it has a 5 year median of 1.00. I would rather this be 1.50 or more. If you add in cash flow after dividends the ratio becomes 1.78 for 2015 with a 5 year median of 1.62. So the company depends on cash flow to meet current liabilities would be the implication of this.
The Debt Ratio has always been good. The current one is 1.93 and its 5 year median is 1.78. I like this ratio to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 are 2.08 and 1.08 and their 5 year ratios are 2.09 and 1.13. These ratios have been declining since 2012. I prefer these to be less than 2.00 and less than 1.00 respectively. However, these ratios are not really out of line for this sort of company.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.33, 5.24 and 6.14. The corresponding 10 year ratios are a little higher at 7.85, 8.98 and 10.11. The current P/E Ratio is 7.28 based on a stock price $17.68 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.43. Analysts think that the EPS will drop by some 14% in 2016. Analyst's estimates for EPS and Adjusted EPS are quite close for the future. It would seem to me that the P/E Ratio is relatively reasonable and below the median.
(The same test using Adjusted EPS would get you a relatively reasonable price above the median. In this case the P/E Ratio would currently be 7.34)
I get a Graham Price of $26.66. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.71, 0.89 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.66. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The historical median dividend is 1.29% and the current dividend yield is 3.85%. The current dividend yield is based on $0.68 and a stock price of $17.68. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $20.44. This implies a total return of 19.46% with 3.85% from dividends and 15.61% from capital gains. Recommendations and total return does not match up as a 19% return is high for a Hold recommendation. Also, analysts still expect the dividends to grow.
In this article in the Financial Post from by Christina Pellegrini talks about how this company is a winner with Rogers and Toronto Star cutting back on their printing and giving it to Transcontinental. When TV came into wide spread use, everyone was saying that Radio was dead. However, people are still making a living off of radio. It is not that new technology does not change things; they just do not change things in ways people expect.
Nelson Smith of Motley Fool talks about three dividend stocks I like that aren't on many investors' radars. One of these companies is Transcontinental. This report in Zolmax talks about recent analysts' rating on Transcontinental. By the way a "sector perform" rating is a Hold rating.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see these reports here and here.
Transcontinental creates marketing products and services that allow businesses to attract, reach and retain their target customers. The Corporation is the largest printer in Canada and the third-largest in North America. Its web site is here Transcontinental Inc.
Transcontinental creates marketing products and services that allow businesses to attract, reach and retain their target customers. The Corporation is the largest printer in Canada and the third-largest in North America. Its web site is here Transcontinental Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, January 22, 2016
National Bank of Canada
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Buy at 5.7% yield. Who knows where the markets will go from here. They may head lower and they may not. However, the stock is still relatively cheap. See my spreadsheet on National Bank of Canada.
I do not own this stock of National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF). I thought I should follow one of the smaller Canadian Banks. This seems like a good choice.
This is one of the smaller banks of Canada. It has a moderate to good yield and the growth of dividends is moderate. The current dividend yield is 5.7% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 4.08%. These are good yields, as I believe any yield over 4% is. The historical median yield is moderate and somewhat lower at 3.89%. The dividend growth is 10% and 9.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
This bank did quite well in the last financial crisis as it only held its dividends flat for two years of 2009 and 2010. The last dividend increase was this year and it was for 3.9%. This bank also tends to increase dividends more than once in a year and the total dividend increase in 2015 was 9%.
If this bank continues to raise dividends at 10% a year, in 5 and 10 years' time you could be earning 14.8% and 23.8% on a purchase today if at $37.90. The 10 year median dividend yields on original stock price if price was median price over the last 5, 10 and 15 years are dividend yields of 6.7%, 10.1% and 21.2%. For example, after 5 years this stock purchased over the past 10 years at a median price had a median dividend yield of 6.7%.
This stock's price fell by 18.5% in 2015 and 6% so far this year. This means that total return to date is rather low. The 5 and 10 year total return to date is 7.11% and 5.65% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 5.07% and 4.23% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 2.04% and 1.42% per year. The beauty of dividend growth stocks is that even though the stock price is falling, dividends have grown at 9% last year and 7% so far this year.
Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS for 2015 was 44.4% and the 5 year median is 38.7%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 10.6% and the 5 year median is 14.6%. This bank would appear to be able to afford its dividends and its dividend growth.
The Debt Ratio at 1.06 is fine for a bank. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high for a Canadian Bank at 19.03 and 18.03. (The other banks are in the 16.00 and 15.00 range.)
The Return on Equity on Comprehensive Income has a tendency to be lower than the ROE on Net Income. In 2015 the ROE on Net Income was 18.9% and its 5 year median was 18.9%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income was 12.9% and its 5 year median was 14.9%. When this happens it suggests that the EPS may not be of the best quality. This is a cautionary note.
The CEO owns shares worth around $6.5M and the Chairman owns shares worth around $0.9M. One of the officers of this bank owns shares worth $1.9M. This is a good sign and a positive note.
This Newswire article is about this bank issuing preferred shares recently. This article on EMQ News Analysis talks about recent analysts ratings on this bank. See recent analysts' comments on Stock Chase. (Note that according to my records it was 1992 and 1993 when dividends were cut. They were back up to precut dividends by 2001. They ran into earnings problems at that time.)
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.04, 10.62 and 11.89. The corresponding 10 year ratios are a bit higher at 9.15, 10.47 and 12.05. The current P/E Ratio is 7.93 based on a stock price of $37.90 and 2016 EPS estimate of $4.78. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $50.32. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.80, 0.89 and 1.05. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 months stock price consensus is $48.63. This implies a total return of 33.98% with 28.28% from capital gains and 5.70% from dividends. The recommendations and the implied total return do not match up.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here
National Bank of Canada provides financial services to consumers, small and medium-sized enterprises, and large corporations & has branches in every province in Canada. It is also represented in the U.S. and Europe through its subsidiaries and alliances. Its web site is here National Bank of Canada.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF). I thought I should follow one of the smaller Canadian Banks. This seems like a good choice.
This is one of the smaller banks of Canada. It has a moderate to good yield and the growth of dividends is moderate. The current dividend yield is 5.7% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 4.08%. These are good yields, as I believe any yield over 4% is. The historical median yield is moderate and somewhat lower at 3.89%. The dividend growth is 10% and 9.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
This bank did quite well in the last financial crisis as it only held its dividends flat for two years of 2009 and 2010. The last dividend increase was this year and it was for 3.9%. This bank also tends to increase dividends more than once in a year and the total dividend increase in 2015 was 9%.
If this bank continues to raise dividends at 10% a year, in 5 and 10 years' time you could be earning 14.8% and 23.8% on a purchase today if at $37.90. The 10 year median dividend yields on original stock price if price was median price over the last 5, 10 and 15 years are dividend yields of 6.7%, 10.1% and 21.2%. For example, after 5 years this stock purchased over the past 10 years at a median price had a median dividend yield of 6.7%.
This stock's price fell by 18.5% in 2015 and 6% so far this year. This means that total return to date is rather low. The 5 and 10 year total return to date is 7.11% and 5.65% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 5.07% and 4.23% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 2.04% and 1.42% per year. The beauty of dividend growth stocks is that even though the stock price is falling, dividends have grown at 9% last year and 7% so far this year.
Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS for 2015 was 44.4% and the 5 year median is 38.7%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 10.6% and the 5 year median is 14.6%. This bank would appear to be able to afford its dividends and its dividend growth.
The Debt Ratio at 1.06 is fine for a bank. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high for a Canadian Bank at 19.03 and 18.03. (The other banks are in the 16.00 and 15.00 range.)
The Return on Equity on Comprehensive Income has a tendency to be lower than the ROE on Net Income. In 2015 the ROE on Net Income was 18.9% and its 5 year median was 18.9%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income was 12.9% and its 5 year median was 14.9%. When this happens it suggests that the EPS may not be of the best quality. This is a cautionary note.
The CEO owns shares worth around $6.5M and the Chairman owns shares worth around $0.9M. One of the officers of this bank owns shares worth $1.9M. This is a good sign and a positive note.
This Newswire article is about this bank issuing preferred shares recently. This article on EMQ News Analysis talks about recent analysts ratings on this bank. See recent analysts' comments on Stock Chase. (Note that according to my records it was 1992 and 1993 when dividends were cut. They were back up to precut dividends by 2001. They ran into earnings problems at that time.)
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.04, 10.62 and 11.89. The corresponding 10 year ratios are a bit higher at 9.15, 10.47 and 12.05. The current P/E Ratio is 7.93 based on a stock price of $37.90 and 2016 EPS estimate of $4.78. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $50.32. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.80, 0.89 and 1.05. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 months stock price consensus is $48.63. This implies a total return of 33.98% with 28.28% from capital gains and 5.70% from dividends. The recommendations and the implied total return do not match up.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here
National Bank of Canada provides financial services to consumers, small and medium-sized enterprises, and large corporations & has branches in every province in Canada. It is also represented in the U.S. and Europe through its subsidiaries and alliances. Its web site is here National Bank of Canada.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Bank of Nova Scotia
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Div growth bank cheap. I have a hard time believing the 12 month consensus stock price, but I also have no idea what the market is going to do in the short term. However, I believe that you buy good stocks when they are cheap if you are a long term investor. This stock is cheap. See my spreadsheet on Bank of Nova Scotia.
I do not own this stock of Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS). This is one of the big banks of Canada. All our big banks are dividend growth companies. Besides, my son owns shares in this bank.
This bank lately has had good dividends with the current and 5 year median dividend yield above 4%. The current dividend yield is 5.36% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 4.1%. The historical median dividend yield is more moderate at 3.86%.
The dividend growth is moderate. The dividend growth is 7% and 8.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was for 2.9% in 2015. However this bank also increases the dividend more than once in a year and the total dividend increase in 2015 was 6.25%. With the recent problems this bank only kept dividends flat for 2009 and 2010.
I think that the bank can afford the dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2015 was 48% and the 5 year median is 45%. The DPR for CFPS is 23% and the 5 year median is 32%.
The bank has had a number of years of negative cash flow, so it is hard to do much in the way of calculation on growth in cash flow or cash flow per share. Unfortunately, it is not unusual for banks for have negative cash flows from operations.
As far as debt ratios go, they are fine. The Debt Ratio is 1.07 and anything over 1.04 is fine for a bank. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 are 16.02 and 15.02 respectively. These are rather typical for a bank.
The 5 year low, medina and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.64, 11.63 and 12.50. The corresponding 10 year ratios are a bit higher at 10.71, 11.90 and 13.39. The current P/E Ratio is 8.84 based on a stock price of $52.27 and 2016 EPS estimate of $5.91. This stock price testing suggests that this bank is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $62.42. The 10 year low, medina and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.91, 1.02 and 1.21. This stock price testing also so that the stock is relatively cheap as the P/GP Ratio is 0.84.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $65.19. This implies a total return of 37.65% with 32.29% from capital gains and 5.39% from dividends.
Who know what the near future holds for this stock, but I believe that you buy good stocks when they are cheap if you want to invest for the long term. This stock is cheap.
In this recent article in the Financial Post, Barbara Shecter talks about the Bank of Nova Scotia forecasting double digit growth from their Mexican and South American operations. On Corvus Business Noah talks about recent analysts' recommendations on this stock. Adam Costello on The News Journal gives an analysis of this stock. He calls it a Top Stock of the Day for January 12, 2016.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here
The Bank of Nova Scotia is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. It is an international bank having banking in Canada and some 40 other countries around the world in the geographic regions of the Caribbean and Central America, Mexico, Latin America and Asia. Its web site is here Bank of Nova Scotia.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS). This is one of the big banks of Canada. All our big banks are dividend growth companies. Besides, my son owns shares in this bank.
This bank lately has had good dividends with the current and 5 year median dividend yield above 4%. The current dividend yield is 5.36% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 4.1%. The historical median dividend yield is more moderate at 3.86%.
The dividend growth is moderate. The dividend growth is 7% and 8.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was for 2.9% in 2015. However this bank also increases the dividend more than once in a year and the total dividend increase in 2015 was 6.25%. With the recent problems this bank only kept dividends flat for 2009 and 2010.
I think that the bank can afford the dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2015 was 48% and the 5 year median is 45%. The DPR for CFPS is 23% and the 5 year median is 32%.
The bank has had a number of years of negative cash flow, so it is hard to do much in the way of calculation on growth in cash flow or cash flow per share. Unfortunately, it is not unusual for banks for have negative cash flows from operations.
As far as debt ratios go, they are fine. The Debt Ratio is 1.07 and anything over 1.04 is fine for a bank. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 are 16.02 and 15.02 respectively. These are rather typical for a bank.
The 5 year low, medina and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.64, 11.63 and 12.50. The corresponding 10 year ratios are a bit higher at 10.71, 11.90 and 13.39. The current P/E Ratio is 8.84 based on a stock price of $52.27 and 2016 EPS estimate of $5.91. This stock price testing suggests that this bank is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $62.42. The 10 year low, medina and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.91, 1.02 and 1.21. This stock price testing also so that the stock is relatively cheap as the P/GP Ratio is 0.84.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $65.19. This implies a total return of 37.65% with 32.29% from capital gains and 5.39% from dividends.
Who know what the near future holds for this stock, but I believe that you buy good stocks when they are cheap if you want to invest for the long term. This stock is cheap.
In this recent article in the Financial Post, Barbara Shecter talks about the Bank of Nova Scotia forecasting double digit growth from their Mexican and South American operations. On Corvus Business Noah talks about recent analysts' recommendations on this stock. Adam Costello on The News Journal gives an analysis of this stock. He calls it a Top Stock of the Day for January 12, 2016.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here
The Bank of Nova Scotia is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. It is an international bank having banking in Canada and some 40 other countries around the world in the geographic regions of the Caribbean and Central America, Mexico, Latin America and Asia. Its web site is here Bank of Nova Scotia.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, January 18, 2016
Toronto Dominion Bank
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Div growth at a good price. It seems recently all the Canadian banks are selling at good prices. If you do not have too much in the way of financials in your stock portfolio, maybe now is the time to change that. See my spreadsheet on Toronto Dominion Bank.
I own this stock of Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD). When I sold some Metro in 2009, I bought this stock. It is the 3rd bank stock I bought. It is the third bank stock I bought.
This bank has a moderate dividend yield and moderate dividend growth. The current dividend yield is 4.13% but the 5 year median 3.71% and it historical median is 3.4%. Dividends have grown at 10.4%, 9.7% and 10.3% per year over the past 5, 10 and 15 years. Today's yield is high, but the median yields, which are the more likely yields are moderate as they are under 4%.
I made two different purchases of this stock, one in 2000 and one in 2009. For my purchase in 2000 (15 years ago) I am earning some 11.4% yield on my original purchase price. For my purchase in 2009 (6 years ago), I am earnings some 8.6% on my original purchase price. If I look at the 10 year median yields for over the past 5, 10 and 15 years, they are 5.3%, 8.2% and 17.9% on original purchase price. So for the stock I bought in 2009, I am doing relatively better on dividend yield on original purchase price than for the stock I bought in 2000.
If you purchase the stock with today's price of $49.45 in 10 or 15 years with dividends increasing at 10% a year, you would be earning 10.7% or 17.2% on your original purchase price. Today's stock price is a good price. This bank also only had two years of flat dividends because of 2008 problems.
I do not see any problem with the bank's Dividend Payout Ratio at present. The DPR for EPS for 2015 was 48% and the 5 year median is 44%. The DPR for CFPS is 37% in 2015 and the 5 year median is 36%.
The balance sheet is fine on this bank. The Debt Ratio is 1.06 and anything at 1.04 or higher is fine for a bank. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 are 16.48 and 15.48 which is rather typical for a Canadian Bank.
The comprehensive income is higher and has generally been higher for this bank than the net income. This is a good sign. For 2015 the ROE was 12.5% and the ROE for comprehensive income was 21.5%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.40, 12.63 and 13.69. The 10 year corresponding ratios are similar at 11.41, 12.68 and 13.88. The current P/E Ratio is 10.41 based on a stock price of $49.45 and 2016 EPS estimate of $4.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Other things point to good price. The Graham price is higher at $60.09 which will give a P/GP Ratio of just 0.82. With the historical median dividend yield of 3.40%, we have a current dividend yield some 21.3% higher. The price is just relatively cheap, not extraordinarily cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a buy. The 12 month stock consensus price is $58.50. Using today's price of $49.45, this implies a total return of 22.43% with 4.13% from dividends and 18.30% from capital gains.
(Maybe all of the analysts did not get the memo that said you should buy good stocks when they are relatively cheap? By buying stocks that are relatively cheap is why it is possible to buy low and sell high. Although, of course, the market may just go down more from here, it is hard to say.)
Benjamin Sinclair of Motley Fool likes this bank. When I look at this report Motley Fool said that they would be putting out a free report on Canada's big five banks. Tammy Falkenburg posted on Zolmax information on recent Institutional action. The analysts comments at Stock Chase are not that positive.
There are economic concerns for Canada and the world and therefore for our banks. The biggest problem is the lack of growth due to government and other debt. Also, some people are worried that banks may suffer because of FinTech. However, these things take a very long time to work their way through the system and it is not assured that FinTech will be the ultimate winner.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The TD bank is a bank with a full range of financial products and services for individuals and corporations in Canada, USA and internationally. Financial products and services include Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; Wealth Management; U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking; and Wholesale banking products. Its web site is here Toronto Dominion Bank.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD). When I sold some Metro in 2009, I bought this stock. It is the 3rd bank stock I bought. It is the third bank stock I bought.
This bank has a moderate dividend yield and moderate dividend growth. The current dividend yield is 4.13% but the 5 year median 3.71% and it historical median is 3.4%. Dividends have grown at 10.4%, 9.7% and 10.3% per year over the past 5, 10 and 15 years. Today's yield is high, but the median yields, which are the more likely yields are moderate as they are under 4%.
I made two different purchases of this stock, one in 2000 and one in 2009. For my purchase in 2000 (15 years ago) I am earning some 11.4% yield on my original purchase price. For my purchase in 2009 (6 years ago), I am earnings some 8.6% on my original purchase price. If I look at the 10 year median yields for over the past 5, 10 and 15 years, they are 5.3%, 8.2% and 17.9% on original purchase price. So for the stock I bought in 2009, I am doing relatively better on dividend yield on original purchase price than for the stock I bought in 2000.
If you purchase the stock with today's price of $49.45 in 10 or 15 years with dividends increasing at 10% a year, you would be earning 10.7% or 17.2% on your original purchase price. Today's stock price is a good price. This bank also only had two years of flat dividends because of 2008 problems.
I do not see any problem with the bank's Dividend Payout Ratio at present. The DPR for EPS for 2015 was 48% and the 5 year median is 44%. The DPR for CFPS is 37% in 2015 and the 5 year median is 36%.
The balance sheet is fine on this bank. The Debt Ratio is 1.06 and anything at 1.04 or higher is fine for a bank. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 are 16.48 and 15.48 which is rather typical for a Canadian Bank.
The comprehensive income is higher and has generally been higher for this bank than the net income. This is a good sign. For 2015 the ROE was 12.5% and the ROE for comprehensive income was 21.5%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.40, 12.63 and 13.69. The 10 year corresponding ratios are similar at 11.41, 12.68 and 13.88. The current P/E Ratio is 10.41 based on a stock price of $49.45 and 2016 EPS estimate of $4.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Other things point to good price. The Graham price is higher at $60.09 which will give a P/GP Ratio of just 0.82. With the historical median dividend yield of 3.40%, we have a current dividend yield some 21.3% higher. The price is just relatively cheap, not extraordinarily cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a buy. The 12 month stock consensus price is $58.50. Using today's price of $49.45, this implies a total return of 22.43% with 4.13% from dividends and 18.30% from capital gains.
(Maybe all of the analysts did not get the memo that said you should buy good stocks when they are relatively cheap? By buying stocks that are relatively cheap is why it is possible to buy low and sell high. Although, of course, the market may just go down more from here, it is hard to say.)
Benjamin Sinclair of Motley Fool likes this bank. When I look at this report Motley Fool said that they would be putting out a free report on Canada's big five banks. Tammy Falkenburg posted on Zolmax information on recent Institutional action. The analysts comments at Stock Chase are not that positive.
There are economic concerns for Canada and the world and therefore for our banks. The biggest problem is the lack of growth due to government and other debt. Also, some people are worried that banks may suffer because of FinTech. However, these things take a very long time to work their way through the system and it is not assured that FinTech will be the ultimate winner.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The TD bank is a bank with a full range of financial products and services for individuals and corporations in Canada, USA and internationally. Financial products and services include Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; Wealth Management; U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking; and Wholesale banking products. Its web site is here Toronto Dominion Bank.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, January 15, 2016
Royal Bank of Canada
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap to reasonable. I do not understand analysts' recommendations on banks currently which range from Strong Buy to Underperform. You buy good stocks when cheap or below the historical median values. Yes, we have economic problems at present so this will affect banks. FinTech will probably also affect banks in the future, but if everything was rosy then banks stock prices would be high and it would not be time to buy. See my spreadsheet on Royal Bank of Canada.
I own this stock of Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY). In 1995 I bought this stock and this is the second bank stock that I have bought. At that time this stock was on Mike Higgs' list of Canadian Dividend Growth Stocks and on the dividend lists I followed as were all the banks.
Currently the dividend is good with a moderate growth. Usually this dividend is also moderate (below 4% I think is moderate). The current dividend yield is 4.57% based on a stock price of $69.15. The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.92%.
This bank held their dividend level for 3 years from 2008 to 2010 inclusive. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is 8.7% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This bank also tends to increase dividends twice a year. The last dividend yield was late in 2015 and was for 2.6%.
They can afford their current dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2015 was 45% and it has a 5 year median of 46%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 39% and the 5 year median was also 39%.
I bought this stock some 20 years ago and the dividend yield I am earning on my original stock price is 43.5%. My original cost was $7.26 per share. (There have been two stocks splits since I bought this stock.) I have received some $28.76 per share so far in dividends.
If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago you would be earning 5.95%, 6.84% or 13.33% on your original stock cost if you paid a median price. However, stocks can be over or under priced in any years. If you look at the 10 year median dividend yield for this stock held 5, 10 or 15 years, the yield earned on the original cost would be 5.62%, 9.69% or 22.55%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.51, 11.44 and 12.68. These are lower than the corresponding 10 year ratios of 11.44, 13.03 and 14.39. The current P/E Ratio is 10.11 based on a stock price of $69.15 and 2016 EPS estimate of $6.84. However you look at this, this testing says that the bank is cheap.
Testing against the dividend yield says it is reasonable. The current dividend yield at 4.57% is some 16.6% lower than the historical median dividend yield of 3.92%.
By the Graham Price, the stock is cheap. I get a Graham price of $77.99 and the stock at $69.15 has a Price/Graham Price Ratio of 0.89.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $82.63. This implies a total return of 24.06% with 19.49% from capital gains and 4.57% from dividends on a stock price of $69.15.
If you buy for the long term, you buy when stocks are relatively cheap. Who knows if the 12 month consensus price is right or not? A lot of people tend to disregard this price. However, if you buy long term, buy when stocks are relatively cheap.
An article in the Financial Post has CEOs of Canada's bank talk about how problems in Alberta is affecting them and the rest of Canada. Most of the comments are quite positive. Ryan Vanzo of Motley Fool is positive about this bank. Analysts at Stock Chase make comments on this bank.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE) and its subsidiaries operate under the master brand name RBC. They are one of Canada's largest banks as measured by assets and market capitalization, and are among the largest banks in the world, based on market capitalization. They provide diversified financial services companies, and provide personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, corporate and investment banking and transaction processing services on a global basis. They have personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 56 other countries. Its web site is here Royal Bank of Canada.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY). In 1995 I bought this stock and this is the second bank stock that I have bought. At that time this stock was on Mike Higgs' list of Canadian Dividend Growth Stocks and on the dividend lists I followed as were all the banks.
Currently the dividend is good with a moderate growth. Usually this dividend is also moderate (below 4% I think is moderate). The current dividend yield is 4.57% based on a stock price of $69.15. The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.92%.
This bank held their dividend level for 3 years from 2008 to 2010 inclusive. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is 8.7% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This bank also tends to increase dividends twice a year. The last dividend yield was late in 2015 and was for 2.6%.
They can afford their current dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2015 was 45% and it has a 5 year median of 46%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 was 39% and the 5 year median was also 39%.
I bought this stock some 20 years ago and the dividend yield I am earning on my original stock price is 43.5%. My original cost was $7.26 per share. (There have been two stocks splits since I bought this stock.) I have received some $28.76 per share so far in dividends.
If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago you would be earning 5.95%, 6.84% or 13.33% on your original stock cost if you paid a median price. However, stocks can be over or under priced in any years. If you look at the 10 year median dividend yield for this stock held 5, 10 or 15 years, the yield earned on the original cost would be 5.62%, 9.69% or 22.55%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.51, 11.44 and 12.68. These are lower than the corresponding 10 year ratios of 11.44, 13.03 and 14.39. The current P/E Ratio is 10.11 based on a stock price of $69.15 and 2016 EPS estimate of $6.84. However you look at this, this testing says that the bank is cheap.
Testing against the dividend yield says it is reasonable. The current dividend yield at 4.57% is some 16.6% lower than the historical median dividend yield of 3.92%.
By the Graham Price, the stock is cheap. I get a Graham price of $77.99 and the stock at $69.15 has a Price/Graham Price Ratio of 0.89.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $82.63. This implies a total return of 24.06% with 19.49% from capital gains and 4.57% from dividends on a stock price of $69.15.
If you buy for the long term, you buy when stocks are relatively cheap. Who knows if the 12 month consensus price is right or not? A lot of people tend to disregard this price. However, if you buy long term, buy when stocks are relatively cheap.
An article in the Financial Post has CEOs of Canada's bank talk about how problems in Alberta is affecting them and the rest of Canada. Most of the comments are quite positive. Ryan Vanzo of Motley Fool is positive about this bank. Analysts at Stock Chase make comments on this bank.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE) and its subsidiaries operate under the master brand name RBC. They are one of Canada's largest banks as measured by assets and market capitalization, and are among the largest banks in the world, based on market capitalization. They provide diversified financial services companies, and provide personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, corporate and investment banking and transaction processing services on a global basis. They have personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 56 other countries. Its web site is here Royal Bank of Canada.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Bank of Montreal
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Buy when price reasonable. Everyone should have some bank stock if you are serious in building a dividend growth portfolio. You should buy bank stocks when they are cheap or reasonable. See my spreadsheet on Bank of Montreal.
I own this stock of Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO). When I bought this stock in 1983, I thought it was the best bank stock to buy at that time. I have not regretted this buy. On my original purchase of stocks, after some 33 years I am earning 46.2% on my original share purchase price.
On this stock, I started a dividend reinvestment plan late in 1984 and this continued late in 1987. Under this plan, I could also buy extra shares each month so I invested $100 to $200 most months. Unfortunately I was tracking this stock by spreadsheet until I started to track it with Quicken in December 1987.
When looking at the data for dividends you will see why you buy dividend growth stocks for a portfolio to retire with. For me, I have had this stock for 33 years and I am making a return of 46% on my original purchase of this stock. What I did was to start a portfolio of stocks of increasing dividends. When I was first working I was reinvesting all my dividends. My portfolio grew until I had enough dividend income to live off of.
For this stock, if you bought it 5, 10 or 15 years ago and you paid a median price you would be earning 5.6%, 5.3% or 8.7% on your original purchase price. However, it all depends on when you purchase a stock. If you look at 10 year median values on this stock bought 5, 10 and 15 years ago, the dividend yields are 5.7%, 8% and 18% on your original purchase price if you paid a median price. So buy stocks when they are showing as reasonable using a number of ratios or the dividend yield. Stock will go through periods when they are underpriced and then through periods when they are overpriced.
When you hold stocks for the long term, they will have their ups and downs. This stock, as did all bank stocks, had problems after 2008. There was four years when dividends were flat between 2009 and 2012. This is why their dividend growth for the past 5 years is at 2.8%. The dividend growth over the past 10 years is better at 5.7%. On this stock I have collected $46.48 in dividends since December 1987 on shares I paid $7.28 for.
Typical of most banks is that they raise their dividends often more than once per year. The last increase was for 2016 at 2.4%. The total dividend increased in 2015 was for 5.9% and there was 2 dividend increases.
The bank can afford the dividends that they are paying. The Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS was 49% in 2015 and the 5 year median is 47.4%. The DPR for CFPS is 38.9% in 2015 and the 5 year median is 38.4%.
The outstanding shares have increased by 2.6% and 2.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Even such a low rate can affect per share growth. Basically per share growth is lower per year by the increase in shares. For example, Revenue per share is up by 9.7% and 6.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 7% and 4.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Debt Ratios are a bit different for banks. Only the Debt Ratio really counts and anything over 1.04 is fine for a bank. At the moment banks have higher than historical debt ratios and this bank at a Debt Ratio of 1.07. Banks also have higher Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios than other sectors. This banks ratios are 16.08 and 15.08 and these are fine for a bank.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.07, 11.34 and 12.10. The corresponding 10 year ratios are a bit higher at 10.29, 11.99 and 13.36. The current P/E Ratio is 10.61 based on a stock price of $74.18 and 2016 EPS estimate of $6.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
At the beginning of the January, this stock was not showing as cheap based on the historical median dividend yield but now it is showing cheap on this basis with a stock price of $74.18. I get a Graham Price of $94.10. This is above the current stock price of $74.18.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The most recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $82.33. This implies a total return of 15.52% with 10.99% from capital gains and 4.53% from dividends.
In a recent article by Andrew Walker of Motley Fool, there are four reasons given to buy this bank. A recent report posted by Bonnie Powley on Zolmaz talks about shares of this bank and institutional investors. Some analysts comments are shown on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
BMO is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. They are international bank having banking in Canada and US. They have clients, corporate, institutional and governmental, in UK, Europe, Asia and South America. Its web site is here Bank of Montreal.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO). When I bought this stock in 1983, I thought it was the best bank stock to buy at that time. I have not regretted this buy. On my original purchase of stocks, after some 33 years I am earning 46.2% on my original share purchase price.
On this stock, I started a dividend reinvestment plan late in 1984 and this continued late in 1987. Under this plan, I could also buy extra shares each month so I invested $100 to $200 most months. Unfortunately I was tracking this stock by spreadsheet until I started to track it with Quicken in December 1987.
When looking at the data for dividends you will see why you buy dividend growth stocks for a portfolio to retire with. For me, I have had this stock for 33 years and I am making a return of 46% on my original purchase of this stock. What I did was to start a portfolio of stocks of increasing dividends. When I was first working I was reinvesting all my dividends. My portfolio grew until I had enough dividend income to live off of.
For this stock, if you bought it 5, 10 or 15 years ago and you paid a median price you would be earning 5.6%, 5.3% or 8.7% on your original purchase price. However, it all depends on when you purchase a stock. If you look at 10 year median values on this stock bought 5, 10 and 15 years ago, the dividend yields are 5.7%, 8% and 18% on your original purchase price if you paid a median price. So buy stocks when they are showing as reasonable using a number of ratios or the dividend yield. Stock will go through periods when they are underpriced and then through periods when they are overpriced.
When you hold stocks for the long term, they will have their ups and downs. This stock, as did all bank stocks, had problems after 2008. There was four years when dividends were flat between 2009 and 2012. This is why their dividend growth for the past 5 years is at 2.8%. The dividend growth over the past 10 years is better at 5.7%. On this stock I have collected $46.48 in dividends since December 1987 on shares I paid $7.28 for.
Typical of most banks is that they raise their dividends often more than once per year. The last increase was for 2016 at 2.4%. The total dividend increased in 2015 was for 5.9% and there was 2 dividend increases.
The bank can afford the dividends that they are paying. The Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS was 49% in 2015 and the 5 year median is 47.4%. The DPR for CFPS is 38.9% in 2015 and the 5 year median is 38.4%.
The outstanding shares have increased by 2.6% and 2.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Even such a low rate can affect per share growth. Basically per share growth is lower per year by the increase in shares. For example, Revenue per share is up by 9.7% and 6.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 7% and 4.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Debt Ratios are a bit different for banks. Only the Debt Ratio really counts and anything over 1.04 is fine for a bank. At the moment banks have higher than historical debt ratios and this bank at a Debt Ratio of 1.07. Banks also have higher Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios than other sectors. This banks ratios are 16.08 and 15.08 and these are fine for a bank.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.07, 11.34 and 12.10. The corresponding 10 year ratios are a bit higher at 10.29, 11.99 and 13.36. The current P/E Ratio is 10.61 based on a stock price of $74.18 and 2016 EPS estimate of $6.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
At the beginning of the January, this stock was not showing as cheap based on the historical median dividend yield but now it is showing cheap on this basis with a stock price of $74.18. I get a Graham Price of $94.10. This is above the current stock price of $74.18.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The most recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $82.33. This implies a total return of 15.52% with 10.99% from capital gains and 4.53% from dividends.
In a recent article by Andrew Walker of Motley Fool, there are four reasons given to buy this bank. A recent report posted by Bonnie Powley on Zolmaz talks about shares of this bank and institutional investors. Some analysts comments are shown on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
BMO is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. They are international bank having banking in Canada and US. They have clients, corporate, institutional and governmental, in UK, Europe, Asia and South America. Its web site is here Bank of Montreal.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, January 11, 2016
Calian Technologies Ltd.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend stock cheap. Our Canadian economy is not doing great at the moment and a number of companies are having a hard time. It is not surprise that this company has head winds. However, on a number of measures, it is cheap. See my spreadsheet on Calian Technologies Ltd.
I own this stock of Calian Technologies Ltd. (TSX-CTY, OTC-CLNFF). This is an interesting company with a very nice dividend. This stock came up on a Globe Investor site. The Globe Investor Number Cruncher is an investment column about screening for stocks and funds. They did one on companies with little to no debt. I also noted that the Financial Blogger has this stock on his Top Ten Canadian Dividend Stocks list.
The dividends on this stock are good and the increases are moderate. The current dividend yield is 7.03%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.48%. The growth in dividends over the past 5 and 10 years is at 7.23% and 13.35% per year.
The last dividend increase occurred in 2013 and it was for 12%. There has been no dividend increase since and that is why the 5 year growth in dividends is much lower than the 10 year growth in dividends.
The thing is that this company hit a high in 2012 in terms of revenue, earnings and cash flow, so I can see why they have stopped increasing their dividends. In 2015, this company Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 84% and for CFPS was 60.5%. Over past 5 years revenue per share is up by 3.2%, EPS is down by 5.3% and CFPS is flat.
Analysts expect moderate growth in revenue and earnings over the next couple of years. The thing is also that there are few analysts following this stock.
This company does have a strong balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.41 and the Debt Ratio is 3.04. I like these ratios to be at 1.50 or better. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good with these ratios in 2015 being 1.49 and 0.49. I like these ratios to be less than 2.00 and less than 1.00, respectively.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.03, 11.57 and 11.93. The 10 year corresponding P/E Ratios are similar at 10.45, 11.17 and 12.69. The current P/E Ratio is 11.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
However, on other basis the stock is cheap. The current dividend yield is high at 7.03%. Compare this to the historical median dividend yield of 4.43% which is some 59% lower. However, the dividend yield was even higher in 2009. Since the low of 2009, this stock price is up some 94%.
Also the Graham Price is $16.94. The current stock price is lower at 15.93. According to the Graham Price theory, you should buy companies when the Price/Graham Price Ratio is below 1.00 and for this stock the P/GP Ratio is 0.94.
Just one analyst has a recommendation on this stock and it is a buy. The 12 month stock price given is $20.00 and this implies a total return of 32.58% with 7.03% from dividends and 25.55% from capital gains.
Mark Watkins in a recent article in Dakota Financial News talks about some insider buying. A press release on Market Wired talks about the company getting two new contracts.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
Calian sells technology services to industry and government in Canada and around the world. Calian provides customers with ready access to an exceptional team of engineers, telecommunications and technology professionals, health care professionals and other highly qualified staff. Its web site is here Calian Technologies Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Calian Technologies Ltd. (TSX-CTY, OTC-CLNFF). This is an interesting company with a very nice dividend. This stock came up on a Globe Investor site. The Globe Investor Number Cruncher is an investment column about screening for stocks and funds. They did one on companies with little to no debt. I also noted that the Financial Blogger has this stock on his Top Ten Canadian Dividend Stocks list.
The dividends on this stock are good and the increases are moderate. The current dividend yield is 7.03%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.48%. The growth in dividends over the past 5 and 10 years is at 7.23% and 13.35% per year.
The last dividend increase occurred in 2013 and it was for 12%. There has been no dividend increase since and that is why the 5 year growth in dividends is much lower than the 10 year growth in dividends.
The thing is that this company hit a high in 2012 in terms of revenue, earnings and cash flow, so I can see why they have stopped increasing their dividends. In 2015, this company Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 84% and for CFPS was 60.5%. Over past 5 years revenue per share is up by 3.2%, EPS is down by 5.3% and CFPS is flat.
Analysts expect moderate growth in revenue and earnings over the next couple of years. The thing is also that there are few analysts following this stock.
This company does have a strong balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.41 and the Debt Ratio is 3.04. I like these ratios to be at 1.50 or better. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good with these ratios in 2015 being 1.49 and 0.49. I like these ratios to be less than 2.00 and less than 1.00, respectively.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.03, 11.57 and 11.93. The 10 year corresponding P/E Ratios are similar at 10.45, 11.17 and 12.69. The current P/E Ratio is 11.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
However, on other basis the stock is cheap. The current dividend yield is high at 7.03%. Compare this to the historical median dividend yield of 4.43% which is some 59% lower. However, the dividend yield was even higher in 2009. Since the low of 2009, this stock price is up some 94%.
Also the Graham Price is $16.94. The current stock price is lower at 15.93. According to the Graham Price theory, you should buy companies when the Price/Graham Price Ratio is below 1.00 and for this stock the P/GP Ratio is 0.94.
Just one analyst has a recommendation on this stock and it is a buy. The 12 month stock price given is $20.00 and this implies a total return of 32.58% with 7.03% from dividends and 25.55% from capital gains.
Mark Watkins in a recent article in Dakota Financial News talks about some insider buying. A press release on Market Wired talks about the company getting two new contracts.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
Calian sells technology services to industry and government in Canada and around the world. Calian provides customers with ready access to an exceptional team of engineers, telecommunications and technology professionals, health care professionals and other highly qualified staff. Its web site is here Calian Technologies Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, January 8, 2016
Bird Construction Inc. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about a Toronto art show with Kathleen Gabriel learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Reasonable Price and cash. They have a lot of cash on hand. Their cash is currently at $4.17 per share or some 32% of the stock price. This is significant. If you subtract cash from the stock price the P/E becomes just 10.70. See my spreadsheet on Bird Construction Inc.
I do not own this stock of Bird Construction Inc. (TSX-BDT, OTC- BIRDF). This was listed as a top stock in ETF of iShares S&P TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index. I had not heard of it before, so I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock.
There is some inside ownership. There is a director, John Bird who owns shares worth around $9.8M and around 2% of the outstanding shares. The chairman owns shares worth around $1.8M but less than 1% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.66, 15.57 and 18.14. The corresponding 10 year values are a lot lower at 8.67, 10.40 and 13.54. This historical median P/E Ratio is 9.93 and that is lower still than the 5 and 10 year median ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 15.50 based on a stock price of $12.09 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.78. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median in terms of 5 year P/E Ratios.
I get a Graham Price of $8.31. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.00, 1.28 and 1.65. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 3.12. The current P/B Ratio is 3.07 based on a stock price of $12.09 and BVPS of $3.94. The current P/B Ratio is some 2% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The current dividend yield is 6.28%. The historical median dividend yield is 5.86% a value some 7% lower. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.76 and a stock price of $12.09. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $12.38. This implies a total return of 8.68% with 2.40% from capital gains and 6.28% from dividends.
Jason Mann's top pics on BNN includes this stock. Here is some analysts' comments on Stock Chase from late 2015 on Bird Construction.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, January 06, 2016 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
The company operates from 12 offices across Canada serving the heavy industrial market in all provinces as well as serving the industrial, commercial and institutional (ICI) markets in all provinces with the exception of Quebec. The work of the company is split almost evenly between the heavy industrial market and the ICI sector. Its web site is here Bird Construction Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Reasonable Price and cash. They have a lot of cash on hand. Their cash is currently at $4.17 per share or some 32% of the stock price. This is significant. If you subtract cash from the stock price the P/E becomes just 10.70. See my spreadsheet on Bird Construction Inc.
I do not own this stock of Bird Construction Inc. (TSX-BDT, OTC- BIRDF). This was listed as a top stock in ETF of iShares S&P TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index. I had not heard of it before, so I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock.
There is some inside ownership. There is a director, John Bird who owns shares worth around $9.8M and around 2% of the outstanding shares. The chairman owns shares worth around $1.8M but less than 1% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.66, 15.57 and 18.14. The corresponding 10 year values are a lot lower at 8.67, 10.40 and 13.54. This historical median P/E Ratio is 9.93 and that is lower still than the 5 and 10 year median ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 15.50 based on a stock price of $12.09 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.78. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median in terms of 5 year P/E Ratios.
I get a Graham Price of $8.31. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.00, 1.28 and 1.65. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 3.12. The current P/B Ratio is 3.07 based on a stock price of $12.09 and BVPS of $3.94. The current P/B Ratio is some 2% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The current dividend yield is 6.28%. The historical median dividend yield is 5.86% a value some 7% lower. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.76 and a stock price of $12.09. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $12.38. This implies a total return of 8.68% with 2.40% from capital gains and 6.28% from dividends.
Jason Mann's top pics on BNN includes this stock. Here is some analysts' comments on Stock Chase from late 2015 on Bird Construction.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, January 06, 2016 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
The company operates from 12 offices across Canada serving the heavy industrial market in all provinces as well as serving the industrial, commercial and institutional (ICI) markets in all provinces with the exception of Quebec. The work of the company is split almost evenly between the heavy industrial market and the ICI sector. Its web site is here Bird Construction Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, January 6, 2016
Bird Construction Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth Industrial (Construction). I think this company is still a dividend growth one, even though it is not growing the dividend at present. No company is perfect. A lot of companies are having a hard time in the current economic situation as growth since 2008 has been subpar for the economy. I do not think that this is going to change anytime soon. See my spreadsheet on Bird Construction Inc.
This is the first opportunity I have had for over a year to look at a new stock. I do not own this stock of Bird Construction Inc. (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF). This was listed as a top stock in ETF of iShares S&P TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index. I had not heard of it before, so I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock.
The dividend yield is good with moderate dividend increases. The current dividend yield is 6.28 % and the 5 year median dividend yield is 5.69%. The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 7% and 8.9% per year.
They have been paying dividends since 2000 and in most years the dividends have gone up except for 2006 when they when down and also there has been no dividend increases in 2014 and 2015. The last dividend increase was for 5.6% and it was in 2013.
The company changed to an income trust in 2006 and then changed back to a corporation in 2011. They gave out a large special dividend when they changed to an income trust and lowered the dividends. The dividend continued to rise after the change to a corporation.
Currently they can afford their dividends but they are a high percentage of EPS and I would think that it may be a while before dividends are increased again. In 2013, dividends paid were 267% of the EPS. In 2014 the Dividend Payout Ratio moderated to 89% and it is expected to be around 95% in 2015. The Dividend Payout Ratio for CFPS was 50% and the 5 year median DPR for CFPS is 53%.
The 5 and 10 years total return to date is at 7.30% and 18.34% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 6.35% and 8.82% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 0.95% and 9.35% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The TSX is not doing well at the moment. This stock is down 7% so far in 2016.
Outstanding shares have increased by 0.2% and 2.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares seem only to have been increased by Share Issues although there are outstanding stock options. Revenue growth has been good. EPS is non-existent to moderate, although the 5 year running averages are better than the strictly 5 and 10 year's growth. Cash flow growth is very low to good.
Revenue is up by 9.1% and 11.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share is up by 8.9% and 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth in Revenue has not been good over the past 2 years and is expected to be only 5% in 2015. The year 2016 is expected to be a better year.
EPS is down by 8.8% and up by 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at 5 year running averages, EPS is down by only 1.2% and is up by 11.8% per year over the past 9 years. Unfortunately, analysts seem to expect EPS to continue to decline in 2015 and in the next couple of years.
Cash Flow is up by 0.8% and 19% over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 0.6% and 16.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect cash flow to decline by some 23% in 2015. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter to the 12 month period to the end of 2014, Cash Flow has gone up.
The Return on Equity has only been less than 10% once in the past 10 years and once in the past 5 years. 2013 was not a good year for the company. The ROE for 2014 was 20% and the 5 year median was 20%. The comprehensive income and the net income are the same for this company, so this is a good sign.
The debt ratios are a bit low and this can be a problem in bad times, but this company has been going since 1949, so it has been through a lot of different economic times. The Liquidity Ratio for is 1.24 for 2014 and its 5 year median ratio is 1.30. The Debt Ratio is 1.40 for 2014 and its 5 year Ratio is 1.38. I prefer both these ratios to be 1.50 for safety's sake.
Also, the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high. For 2014 they are 3.51 and 2.51. Their 5 year median ratios are 3.66 and 2.66. I like these ratios to be less and 2.00 and less than 1.00. However in some industries companies are debt heavy.
There is an interest analysis of this company by a blogger called Dividend Gangster in 2012.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, January 8, 2016 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
The company operates from 12 offices across Canada serving the heavy industrial market in all provinces as well as serving the industrial, commercial and institutional (ICI) markets in all provinces with the exception of Quebec. The work of the company is split almost evenly between the heavy industrial market and the ICI sector. Its web site is here Bird Construction Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This is the first opportunity I have had for over a year to look at a new stock. I do not own this stock of Bird Construction Inc. (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF). This was listed as a top stock in ETF of iShares S&P TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index. I had not heard of it before, so I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock.
The dividend yield is good with moderate dividend increases. The current dividend yield is 6.28 % and the 5 year median dividend yield is 5.69%. The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 7% and 8.9% per year.
They have been paying dividends since 2000 and in most years the dividends have gone up except for 2006 when they when down and also there has been no dividend increases in 2014 and 2015. The last dividend increase was for 5.6% and it was in 2013.
The company changed to an income trust in 2006 and then changed back to a corporation in 2011. They gave out a large special dividend when they changed to an income trust and lowered the dividends. The dividend continued to rise after the change to a corporation.
Currently they can afford their dividends but they are a high percentage of EPS and I would think that it may be a while before dividends are increased again. In 2013, dividends paid were 267% of the EPS. In 2014 the Dividend Payout Ratio moderated to 89% and it is expected to be around 95% in 2015. The Dividend Payout Ratio for CFPS was 50% and the 5 year median DPR for CFPS is 53%.
The 5 and 10 years total return to date is at 7.30% and 18.34% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 6.35% and 8.82% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 0.95% and 9.35% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The TSX is not doing well at the moment. This stock is down 7% so far in 2016.
Outstanding shares have increased by 0.2% and 2.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares seem only to have been increased by Share Issues although there are outstanding stock options. Revenue growth has been good. EPS is non-existent to moderate, although the 5 year running averages are better than the strictly 5 and 10 year's growth. Cash flow growth is very low to good.
Revenue is up by 9.1% and 11.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share is up by 8.9% and 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth in Revenue has not been good over the past 2 years and is expected to be only 5% in 2015. The year 2016 is expected to be a better year.
EPS is down by 8.8% and up by 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at 5 year running averages, EPS is down by only 1.2% and is up by 11.8% per year over the past 9 years. Unfortunately, analysts seem to expect EPS to continue to decline in 2015 and in the next couple of years.
Cash Flow is up by 0.8% and 19% over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 0.6% and 16.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect cash flow to decline by some 23% in 2015. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter to the 12 month period to the end of 2014, Cash Flow has gone up.
The Return on Equity has only been less than 10% once in the past 10 years and once in the past 5 years. 2013 was not a good year for the company. The ROE for 2014 was 20% and the 5 year median was 20%. The comprehensive income and the net income are the same for this company, so this is a good sign.
The debt ratios are a bit low and this can be a problem in bad times, but this company has been going since 1949, so it has been through a lot of different economic times. The Liquidity Ratio for is 1.24 for 2014 and its 5 year median ratio is 1.30. The Debt Ratio is 1.40 for 2014 and its 5 year Ratio is 1.38. I prefer both these ratios to be 1.50 for safety's sake.
Also, the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high. For 2014 they are 3.51 and 2.51. Their 5 year median ratios are 3.66 and 2.66. I like these ratios to be less and 2.00 and less than 1.00. However in some industries companies are debt heavy.
There is an interest analysis of this company by a blogger called Dividend Gangster in 2012.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, January 8, 2016 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
The company operates from 12 offices across Canada serving the heavy industrial market in all provinces as well as serving the industrial, commercial and institutional (ICI) markets in all provinces with the exception of Quebec. The work of the company is split almost evenly between the heavy industrial market and the ICI sector. Its web site is here Bird Construction Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, January 4, 2016
Metro Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Relatively Expensive. Not a good sign that insiders and institutional owners see to be selling. See my spreadsheet on Metro Inc.
I own this stock of Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF). I was following this stock before I bought it because it was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth stock list and on the other dividend lists that I was following.
This is a stock with low dividends and moderate dividend increases. The current dividend yield is 1.20% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.58%. Dividends have increased by 15.8% and 13.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
I have held this stock for just over 11 years and I have a total return of 19.92% per year with 18.17% per year from capital gains and 1.75% from dividends. My cost basis for this stock is $5.89 per year. I have earned $2.69 in dividends, so dividends have covered some 45.6% of the cost of my shares. I am earning some 7.92% dividend yield on the original cost of my shares.
This company can certainly afford their dividends. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios are 19.4% for EPS and 12.2% for CFPS.
This company has decreased their shares by 5.1% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. This means and I, as a shareholder is more interested in growth of Revenue, Net Income and Cash Flow than the per share values. By decreasing shares, growth in things like EPS looks better than they actually are.
Net Income has grown by 5.3% and 10.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings per Share have increased by 10.6% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth is rather good in EPS. Analysts expect growth in EPS to continue.
However, this is not so in Revenue. Revenue is up by 1.5% and 6.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, where Revenue per share is up by 7% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue growth over the past 5 years is a concern. Growth in Revenue in 2015 was 5.5%, but Analysts expect lower growth in 2016 at around 2.9%.
The one comment to make on the balance sheet is that the Liquidity Ratio is weak at just 1.10. If you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio becomes 1.64. So basically they are counting on cash flow to adequately cover current liabilities. However, the Liquidity Ratio has always been low on this stock. This gives them vulnerability in bad times.
There has been a relatively lot of insider selling over the past year. Net insider selling is at 0.22% of market cap. I prefer this to be under 0.02% or 0.03%. (The median NIS for all my stocks is 0.02% and 70% are under 0.11%. This is to give you a reference point.) Also, according to Reuters, there were 249 institutional owners, owning some 72.6% of the outstanding shares last year. Now there are 231 institutional owners owning 47% of the outstanding shares. This is rather a big decrease.
The stock is not showing as cheap using the historical median dividend yield as will be shown in my next report.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.39, 12.28 and 13.18. The corresponding 10 year values are similar, but lower at 10.38, 11.64 and 13.47. The current P/E Ratio is 17.45 based on a stock price of $38.74 and 2016 EPS of $2.22. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are either a Buy or Hold. The consensus would be Buy recommendation. The 12 month price consensus is $40.88. This implies a total return of 6.73% with 5.52% from capital gains and 1.20% from dividends.
On the Putnam Standard site is an article talking about 12 analysts giving this stock a Hold rating and about some insider selling. (It depends on what site you go to, to get collected recommendations what collected recommendations you get as they can vary.) An article on Dakota Financial News talks about another insider selling. There is also some good comments on Stock Chase
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here or here.
Metro is a leader in the food and pharmaceutical sectors. It operates a network of food stores under the banners Metro, Metro Plus, Super C, Adonis and Food Basics. It has 250 pharmacies under the banners Brunet, Clini Plus, Metro Pharmacy and Drug Basics. Its web site is here Metro Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF). I was following this stock before I bought it because it was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth stock list and on the other dividend lists that I was following.
This is a stock with low dividends and moderate dividend increases. The current dividend yield is 1.20% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.58%. Dividends have increased by 15.8% and 13.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
I have held this stock for just over 11 years and I have a total return of 19.92% per year with 18.17% per year from capital gains and 1.75% from dividends. My cost basis for this stock is $5.89 per year. I have earned $2.69 in dividends, so dividends have covered some 45.6% of the cost of my shares. I am earning some 7.92% dividend yield on the original cost of my shares.
This company can certainly afford their dividends. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios are 19.4% for EPS and 12.2% for CFPS.
This company has decreased their shares by 5.1% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. This means and I, as a shareholder is more interested in growth of Revenue, Net Income and Cash Flow than the per share values. By decreasing shares, growth in things like EPS looks better than they actually are.
Net Income has grown by 5.3% and 10.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings per Share have increased by 10.6% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth is rather good in EPS. Analysts expect growth in EPS to continue.
However, this is not so in Revenue. Revenue is up by 1.5% and 6.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, where Revenue per share is up by 7% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue growth over the past 5 years is a concern. Growth in Revenue in 2015 was 5.5%, but Analysts expect lower growth in 2016 at around 2.9%.
The one comment to make on the balance sheet is that the Liquidity Ratio is weak at just 1.10. If you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio becomes 1.64. So basically they are counting on cash flow to adequately cover current liabilities. However, the Liquidity Ratio has always been low on this stock. This gives them vulnerability in bad times.
There has been a relatively lot of insider selling over the past year. Net insider selling is at 0.22% of market cap. I prefer this to be under 0.02% or 0.03%. (The median NIS for all my stocks is 0.02% and 70% are under 0.11%. This is to give you a reference point.) Also, according to Reuters, there were 249 institutional owners, owning some 72.6% of the outstanding shares last year. Now there are 231 institutional owners owning 47% of the outstanding shares. This is rather a big decrease.
The stock is not showing as cheap using the historical median dividend yield as will be shown in my next report.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.39, 12.28 and 13.18. The corresponding 10 year values are similar, but lower at 10.38, 11.64 and 13.47. The current P/E Ratio is 17.45 based on a stock price of $38.74 and 2016 EPS of $2.22. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are either a Buy or Hold. The consensus would be Buy recommendation. The 12 month price consensus is $40.88. This implies a total return of 6.73% with 5.52% from capital gains and 1.20% from dividends.
On the Putnam Standard site is an article talking about 12 analysts giving this stock a Hold rating and about some insider selling. (It depends on what site you go to, to get collected recommendations what collected recommendations you get as they can vary.) An article on Dakota Financial News talks about another insider selling. There is also some good comments on Stock Chase
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here or here.
Metro is a leader in the food and pharmaceutical sectors. It operates a network of food stores under the banners Metro, Metro Plus, Super C, Adonis and Food Basics. It has 250 pharmacies under the banners Brunet, Clini Plus, Metro Pharmacy and Drug Basics. Its web site is here Metro Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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