On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and Alex Koyfman learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is reasonable, but above relative median. I think that the stock price testing on the historical dividend yield is probably the best for this stock. See my spreadsheet on PFB Corp.
I do not own this stock of PFB Corp. (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF). I am following this stock as I read a positive article on this stock in November 2009 and thought I would do a spreadsheet on it. This stock is a dividend paying small cap stock. The article said that this stock would be good for long-term gains and rising dividends. This is the thing with small cap stock; you can get a blend of capital gains and rising dividends in the long term only if the company is successful.
Well, the report I read in 2009 was wrong. No rise in dividends have occurred. The dividends have not changed since 2005 and there does not seem to be an increase in the near future. The current dividend yield is moderate at 2.7%. But with the dividend flat for the last 10 years, this is not a good dividend stock. However, they did give out a $1.00 special dividend in 2013.
Of course the problem is that they cannot really afford the current dividend. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2014 was 171% and the 5 year median DPR for EPS is 122%. The DPR for CFPS is better with the DPR for 2014 at 26% and the 5 year DPR at 31.5%.
The recovery from 2008 has been long and slow and there are a number of companies having difficulties. However this stock has recently perked up. The stock is up by 147% from the lows of 2014. This is why the 5 year total return is at 15.50% per year with 9.01% per year from capital gains and 6.49% per year from dividends. The total return over the past 10 years is not a good with a loss of 1.24% per year and a capital loss of 4.28% per year and 3.04% per year from dividends. Dividends did save this 10 year return.
Outstanding shares have only marginally changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. The stock hit a low point in 2012 and has had growth since then. Revenue growth is moderate. EPS growth is non-existent until 2015. Cash Flow growth is non-existent to moderate.
Revenue has grown at 6.4% and 5.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 5.9% and 5.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This company has done well so far this year. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 with the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is up by 11%. There are no analysts following this stock.
The EPS is down by 24% and 8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The stats are better if you look at 5 year running averages and here the EPS is down by 8% and 1.5% per year. The EPS has increased this year. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 with the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS is up by 471% to $0.80. However, $0.63 of this EPS seems to be due to a Real Estate sale.
Cash Flow is down by 5.3% and up by 4.97% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is down by 5.8% and up by 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 with the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is up by 119%.
The Return on Equity has not been very good. The ROE was above 10% only once in the past 5 years and 3 times in the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 was just 2.2% and the 5 year median is 4.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income is a bit better with the ROE for 2014 at 4.4% and the 5 year median at 4.4% also.
A good thing about this company is the strong balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratios for 2014 is 2.60 and its 5 year median is 2.60. The Debt Ratio for 2014 was 2.60 and the 5 year median is 3.00. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2014 was 1.62 and 0.62. The 5 year median ratios were 1.45 and 0.45, respectively.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.00, 21.55 and 24.11. The corresponding 10 year ratios are much lower at 11.16, 14.04 and 17.23. The current P/E Ratio using 12 month trailing EPS of $0.80 is 11.06. This P/E Ratio is based on a stock price of $8.85. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham price of $7.93. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.72, 0.93 and 1.21. The current P/GP Rati is 1.12. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the relative median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.93. The current P/B Ratio is 1.24 based on a BVPS of $7.11 and a stock price of $8.85. The current P/B Ratio is some 33% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year dividend yield is 4.08%. The current dividend yield is 2.71% a yield some 34% lower. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.24 and a stock price of $8.85. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median dividend yield is 2.85%. The current dividend yield of 2.71% is some 4.8% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the relative median.
In this Press Release, PFB Corp talks about expanding their operations to the Midwestern Region of US. There is an old report on this company from the Investment Reporter dated January 2014.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
PFB Corporation, through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, is a vertically-integrated manufacturer of proprietary insulating building products that are based on expanded polystyrene (EPS) technology.
This expanded polystyrene (EPS) rigid insulation is used in a wide variety of residential and commercial construction projects across North America. It was founded in 1968 as Plasti-Fab Ltd, now a subsidiary of PFB. Directors and officers own 57% of the issued and outstanding common shares as of December 31, 2008. Its web site is here PFB Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, November 30, 2015
Friday, November 27, 2015
IBI Group Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Turnaround opportunity? This stock is doing better. There are still many things I do not like about it, but it seems to be making progress. See my spreadsheet on IBI Group Inc.
I do not own this stock of IBI Group Inc. (TSX-IBG, OTC-IBIBF). I have had this stock on my list to investigate for some time before I finally did in 2011. What finally prompted me set up a spreadsheet on this stock was an investment report I read in March of 2011.
When I first looked at this company it was a dividend growth company, however, it had not been on the TSX for very long, only since 2004. It decreased its dividend in 2011. They paid only one dividend in 2013 before cancelling the dividend entirely.
This company has had earnings losses for the last 3 years. Analysts expect EPS to be around $0.33 for 2015. The EPS for the first 3 quarters of 2015 was $0.39, so this seems reasonable. The stock has perked up since the lows in 2013, so it looks like the market believes it will do better in 2015. The stock price is up by 250% since the lows of 2013.
One of the problems I see is the increase in outstanding shares, which are up by 6.6% and 13.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is mainly due to Share Issues. Continuous increases to outstanding shares can really affect a stock's performance for shareholders.
A connecting item is that IBI Group has issued Class B partnership units to IBI Group Management Partnership, the entity that carried on the operations of the Fund prior to its acquisition by the Fund. These shares can be exchanged for shares in the company. When this occurs, outstanding shares will be increased by over 28%. There are also convertible debentures outstanding.
If you look at Revenue, Revenue has grown at 1.7% and 12.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the Revenue per Share growth is negative. This is down by 4.6% and 0.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect growth of around 8% in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is up by 6.4%.
Growth in Cash Flow is worse. Cash Flow is down by 29% and up by 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 33.6% and 10.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Another problem I have with this company is that it has a negative book value. The liabilities are greater than the assets, so potential breakup value is negative. Also, the Liquidity Ratio has bounced around quite a bit. At the end of 2014 it was 1.88 a good value. However, at the end of the third quarter of 2015 it was just 1.28. I like this ratio to be at least at 1.50 for safety's sake.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month Stock Price is $3.63. This implies a total return of 55.13%, all from capital gains.
There is a Market Wired press release for the third quarterly's results. There is also a press release on Stock House about IBI Group offering Right (to buy more shares) to existing shareholders. This article by Barry Critchley in the Financial Post talks about the company getting a new credit facility in 2015.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
IBI Group Inc. is an international, multi-disciplinary provider of a range of professional services focused on the physical development of cities. The Company through IBI Group provides professional services, including planning, design, implementation, analysis of operations and other consulting services in relation to four main areas of development (urban land, building facilities, transportation networks and systems technology.) Its web site is here IBI Group Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of IBI Group Inc. (TSX-IBG, OTC-IBIBF). I have had this stock on my list to investigate for some time before I finally did in 2011. What finally prompted me set up a spreadsheet on this stock was an investment report I read in March of 2011.
When I first looked at this company it was a dividend growth company, however, it had not been on the TSX for very long, only since 2004. It decreased its dividend in 2011. They paid only one dividend in 2013 before cancelling the dividend entirely.
This company has had earnings losses for the last 3 years. Analysts expect EPS to be around $0.33 for 2015. The EPS for the first 3 quarters of 2015 was $0.39, so this seems reasonable. The stock has perked up since the lows in 2013, so it looks like the market believes it will do better in 2015. The stock price is up by 250% since the lows of 2013.
One of the problems I see is the increase in outstanding shares, which are up by 6.6% and 13.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is mainly due to Share Issues. Continuous increases to outstanding shares can really affect a stock's performance for shareholders.
A connecting item is that IBI Group has issued Class B partnership units to IBI Group Management Partnership, the entity that carried on the operations of the Fund prior to its acquisition by the Fund. These shares can be exchanged for shares in the company. When this occurs, outstanding shares will be increased by over 28%. There are also convertible debentures outstanding.
If you look at Revenue, Revenue has grown at 1.7% and 12.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the Revenue per Share growth is negative. This is down by 4.6% and 0.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect growth of around 8% in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is up by 6.4%.
Growth in Cash Flow is worse. Cash Flow is down by 29% and up by 1.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 33.6% and 10.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Another problem I have with this company is that it has a negative book value. The liabilities are greater than the assets, so potential breakup value is negative. Also, the Liquidity Ratio has bounced around quite a bit. At the end of 2014 it was 1.88 a good value. However, at the end of the third quarter of 2015 it was just 1.28. I like this ratio to be at least at 1.50 for safety's sake.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month Stock Price is $3.63. This implies a total return of 55.13%, all from capital gains.
There is a Market Wired press release for the third quarterly's results. There is also a press release on Stock House about IBI Group offering Right (to buy more shares) to existing shareholders. This article by Barry Critchley in the Financial Post talks about the company getting a new credit facility in 2015.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
IBI Group Inc. is an international, multi-disciplinary provider of a range of professional services focused on the physical development of cities. The Company through IBI Group provides professional services, including planning, design, implementation, analysis of operations and other consulting services in relation to four main areas of development (urban land, building facilities, transportation networks and systems technology.) Its web site is here IBI Group Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, November 26, 2015
Johnson and Johnson 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price seems relatively reasonable. I am choosing the historical median Dividend Yield test because this test as the best test as it is using current date rather than estimates or values from the last financial statements. See my spreadsheet on Johnson and Johnson.
I do not own this stock of Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ), but I used to. As Canadians, we are told we should be buying US stocks for our portfolio. It is often recommended that we have at least 25% of our portfolio in US stocks. I have never followed this, although I have tried dipping into the US market, but I have never made any money there. I bought some of this stock in June 2005 and realized a year later, in June of 2006 that it was going nowhere for me and sold. I lost almost 17% of my investment.
There is not much of insider ownership, but this is a very big company. The CEO has shares worth $11.8M, but this is a very small percentage of the outstanding shares. It is 0.004% of outstanding shares. The other thing is this company gives out a lot of options.
The increase in outstanding shares due to options was at 1.16% in 2014. From 2011 to 2013 the increase in outstanding shares due to options was 0.92%, 1.96% and 1.72% so 2014 was not an unusual year for the company’s options. For the companies that I follow, the median increase in outstanding shares was 0.22% and for 70% of the companies it was 0.50% or lower. I find stock options rather high.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 15.20, 17.27 and 19.14. The corresponding 10 year ratios are close at 15.33, 17.22 and 18.82. The historical median P/E Ratio is 18.18. The current P/E Ratio is 18.20 based on a stock price of $102.48 and 2015 EPS estimate of $5.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but slightly above the relative median.
I get a Graham Price of $57.23. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41, 1.58 and 1.80. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.79 based on a stock price of $102.48. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but at the very top of a reasonableness range.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.71. The current P/B Ratio is 3.96 a value some 6.8% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but slightly above the relative median. It is interesting that the historical median P/B Ratio is 5.27, which is quite a high value.
The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 3.43% and the current Dividend Yield is 2.93% a value some 14.6% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but getting to the top of a reasonableness range.
The historical Dividend Yield is 2.14%. The current Dividend Yield at 2.93% is 38% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the relative median.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform. Most of the recommendations are a Hold. The consensus would be a Buy Recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $108.13. This implies a total return of 8.44% with 2.93% from dividends and 5.51% from capital gains. This is based on a current stock price of $102.48.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, November 25, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Johnson & Johnson is engaged in the manufacture and sale of a broad range of products in the health care field in many countries of the world. The company's worldwide business is divided into three segments: Consumer; Pharmaceutical; and Professional. Its web site is here Johnson and Johnson.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ), but I used to. As Canadians, we are told we should be buying US stocks for our portfolio. It is often recommended that we have at least 25% of our portfolio in US stocks. I have never followed this, although I have tried dipping into the US market, but I have never made any money there. I bought some of this stock in June 2005 and realized a year later, in June of 2006 that it was going nowhere for me and sold. I lost almost 17% of my investment.
There is not much of insider ownership, but this is a very big company. The CEO has shares worth $11.8M, but this is a very small percentage of the outstanding shares. It is 0.004% of outstanding shares. The other thing is this company gives out a lot of options.
The increase in outstanding shares due to options was at 1.16% in 2014. From 2011 to 2013 the increase in outstanding shares due to options was 0.92%, 1.96% and 1.72% so 2014 was not an unusual year for the company’s options. For the companies that I follow, the median increase in outstanding shares was 0.22% and for 70% of the companies it was 0.50% or lower. I find stock options rather high.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 15.20, 17.27 and 19.14. The corresponding 10 year ratios are close at 15.33, 17.22 and 18.82. The historical median P/E Ratio is 18.18. The current P/E Ratio is 18.20 based on a stock price of $102.48 and 2015 EPS estimate of $5.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but slightly above the relative median.
I get a Graham Price of $57.23. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41, 1.58 and 1.80. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.79 based on a stock price of $102.48. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but at the very top of a reasonableness range.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.71. The current P/B Ratio is 3.96 a value some 6.8% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but slightly above the relative median. It is interesting that the historical median P/B Ratio is 5.27, which is quite a high value.
The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 3.43% and the current Dividend Yield is 2.93% a value some 14.6% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but getting to the top of a reasonableness range.
The historical Dividend Yield is 2.14%. The current Dividend Yield at 2.93% is 38% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the relative median.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform. Most of the recommendations are a Hold. The consensus would be a Buy Recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $108.13. This implies a total return of 8.44% with 2.93% from dividends and 5.51% from capital gains. This is based on a current stock price of $102.48.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, November 25, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Johnson & Johnson is engaged in the manufacture and sale of a broad range of products in the health care field in many countries of the world. The company's worldwide business is divided into three segments: Consumer; Pharmaceutical; and Professional. Its web site is here Johnson and Johnson.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Johnson and Johnson
On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and the Rehman Moledina learn more. He has an extremely negative attitude about small investors. Yet I, as a small investor have consistently made money in the market since the late 1970's.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth US stock. Although I still cover a number of US stocks, I am not ready at present to buy any. See my spreadsheet on Johnson and Johnson.
I do not own this stock of Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ). As Canadians, we are told we should be buying US stocks for our portfolio. It is often recommended that we have at least 25% of our portfolio in US stocks. I have never followed this, although I have tried dipping into the US market, but I have never made any money there. I bought some of this stock in June 2005 and realized a year later, in June of 2006 that it was going nowhere for me and sold. I lost almost 17% of my investment. When I bought in 2005, all the analysts were saying that it was a good buy at that time.
The Americans statements have a lot more information that Canadian ones do. However, sometimes more information is just more information. It does not mean you get better information. I am rather focused on the information I want. I find with the US 10-K statements there is just a lot more carp to go through to find what I want.
I have been tracking for this stock total return for 5 year periods from 2002 to the present. What gets me as a Canadian investor in such a stock is that for the 5 year periods from 2003 to 2012 I would have had either a negative or extremely small total return. I know a lot of Canadians invest in US stocks. However, I never had much luck investing in US Stocks.
I held US stocks of Gillette (NYSE-G), Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) and WorldCom Inc. (NYSE-WCOM) and made no money on any of them and lost big time on WorldCom. I did better holding international stock via ADRs of Barclays PLC (NYSE-BCS), Cable and Wireless (NYSE-HKT) and Nokia NYSE-NOK). I made a profit on all with Cable and Wireless a very good investment.
The problem, of course, of investing in foreign stocks is that you never know what you will receive in dividends. For ADRs it is even more confusing as dividends are translated into US$ before being translated in CDN$.
For Canadians, the dividends JNJ have increased by 9.6% and 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Also, total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 20.60% and 9.41% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to dividends is 3.38% and 2.48% per year. . The portion of this total return attributed to capital gain is 17.22% and 6.94% per year. The US$ compared to the CDN$ is up by 6% and 1.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
For Americans, the dividends have increased by 7.4% and 9.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 14.01% and 8.27% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to dividends is 3.41% and 2.79% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to capital gain is 10.59% and 5.48% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.2% and decreased by 0.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and they have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue has grown moderately well over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS and Cash Flow has also grown moderately well.
Revenue is up by 3.7% and 4.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 3.6% and 5.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue to decline by 5.6% in 2015. If you compared the 12 month period to the end of 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is down by 5.1%.
EPS is up by 5.3% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect EPS to decline by 1.2% in 2015. If you compared the 12 month period to the end of 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS is down by 8.4%.
Cash Flow has grown by 5.1% and 6.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 4.9% and 7.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to decline by 2% in 2015. If you compared the 12 month period to the end of 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is up by 0.5%.
The Return on Equity has been greater than 10% each of the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 is 23.4% and the 5 year median is 18.7%. For 2014 the ROE for comprehensive income is just 12.1%. This suggests that earnings may not be of good quality. The 5 year median ROE on comprehensive income is closer to the ROE on Net Income being at 16.5%. The lower ROE on comprehensive income strikes a cautionary note.
The debt ratios are good and the balance sheet is strong. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 2.36. The Debt Ratio was 2.14. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios were 1.88 and 0.88.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, November 26, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Johnson & Johnson is engaged in the manufacture and sale of a broad range of products in the health care field in many countries of the world. The company's worldwide business is divided into three segments: Consumer; Pharmaceutical; and Professional. Its web site is here Johnson and Johnson.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth US stock. Although I still cover a number of US stocks, I am not ready at present to buy any. See my spreadsheet on Johnson and Johnson.
I do not own this stock of Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ). As Canadians, we are told we should be buying US stocks for our portfolio. It is often recommended that we have at least 25% of our portfolio in US stocks. I have never followed this, although I have tried dipping into the US market, but I have never made any money there. I bought some of this stock in June 2005 and realized a year later, in June of 2006 that it was going nowhere for me and sold. I lost almost 17% of my investment. When I bought in 2005, all the analysts were saying that it was a good buy at that time.
The Americans statements have a lot more information that Canadian ones do. However, sometimes more information is just more information. It does not mean you get better information. I am rather focused on the information I want. I find with the US 10-K statements there is just a lot more carp to go through to find what I want.
I have been tracking for this stock total return for 5 year periods from 2002 to the present. What gets me as a Canadian investor in such a stock is that for the 5 year periods from 2003 to 2012 I would have had either a negative or extremely small total return. I know a lot of Canadians invest in US stocks. However, I never had much luck investing in US Stocks.
I held US stocks of Gillette (NYSE-G), Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) and WorldCom Inc. (NYSE-WCOM) and made no money on any of them and lost big time on WorldCom. I did better holding international stock via ADRs of Barclays PLC (NYSE-BCS), Cable and Wireless (NYSE-HKT) and Nokia NYSE-NOK). I made a profit on all with Cable and Wireless a very good investment.
The problem, of course, of investing in foreign stocks is that you never know what you will receive in dividends. For ADRs it is even more confusing as dividends are translated into US$ before being translated in CDN$.
For Canadians, the dividends JNJ have increased by 9.6% and 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Also, total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 20.60% and 9.41% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to dividends is 3.38% and 2.48% per year. . The portion of this total return attributed to capital gain is 17.22% and 6.94% per year. The US$ compared to the CDN$ is up by 6% and 1.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
For Americans, the dividends have increased by 7.4% and 9.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 14.01% and 8.27% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to dividends is 3.41% and 2.79% per year. The portion of this total return attributed to capital gain is 10.59% and 5.48% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.2% and decreased by 0.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and they have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue has grown moderately well over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS and Cash Flow has also grown moderately well.
Revenue is up by 3.7% and 4.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 3.6% and 5.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue to decline by 5.6% in 2015. If you compared the 12 month period to the end of 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is down by 5.1%.
EPS is up by 5.3% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect EPS to decline by 1.2% in 2015. If you compared the 12 month period to the end of 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS is down by 8.4%.
Cash Flow has grown by 5.1% and 6.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 4.9% and 7.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to decline by 2% in 2015. If you compared the 12 month period to the end of 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is up by 0.5%.
The Return on Equity has been greater than 10% each of the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 is 23.4% and the 5 year median is 18.7%. For 2014 the ROE for comprehensive income is just 12.1%. This suggests that earnings may not be of good quality. The 5 year median ROE on comprehensive income is closer to the ROE on Net Income being at 16.5%. The lower ROE on comprehensive income strikes a cautionary note.
The debt ratios are good and the balance sheet is strong. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 2.36. The Debt Ratio was 2.14. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios were 1.88 and 0.88.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, November 26, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Johnson & Johnson is engaged in the manufacture and sale of a broad range of products in the health care field in many countries of the world. The company's worldwide business is divided into three segments: Consumer; Pharmaceutical; and Professional. Its web site is here Johnson and Johnson.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Keyera Corp. 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Good utility stock, but expensive. See my spreadsheet on Keyera Corp.
I do not own this stock of Keyera Corp. (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. The title of the article in Investor's Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. Jennifer is now writes for the Globe and Mail.
There is not a lot of insider ownership. The current CEO owns shares worth some $19.8M but this is just 0.3% of the outstanding shares. The Chairman owns shares worth some $31.1M and this is just 0.5% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.99, 25.94 and 29.96. The 10 year corresponding ratios are lower at 16.63, 20.96 and 25.29. The current P/E Ratio is 25.97 based on a stock price of $38.95 and 2015 EPS estimate of $1.24. This test suggests that the current stock price is still reasonable, but in the top of the reasonableness range. It is above the relative median. However a P/E of $25.97 is rather high, I think, for a utility stock.
I get a Graham Price of $16.75. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41, 1.75 and 2.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.32 based on a stock price of $38.95. This stock price test suggests that this stock is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.33. The current P/B Ratio is 4.89 a value that is 101% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $38.95 and BVPS of $8.32. This stock price test suggests that this stock is relatively expensive.
Since this company is now a corporation rather than an income fund, I will only look at the 5 year Dividend Yield. The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 4.62%. The current Dividend Yield of 3.54% is based on dividends of $1.38 and a stock price of $38.95. The current dividend yield is some 25% lower than the 5 year median Dividend Yield. This stock price test suggests that this stock is relatively expensive.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price if $49.33. This implies a total return of 30.19% with 3.54% from dividends and 26.65% from capital gains.
Thomas Dobrow on Dakota Financial News talks about recent analysts ratings for this stock. On BOE Report is a press release about Keyera's third quarterly results. Joseph Solitro of the Motley Fool did a write up on this stock.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, November 23, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Keyera provides essential services and products to oil and gas producers in western Canada, and markets related natural gas liquids (NGLs) throughout North America. Its web site is here Keyera Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Keyera Corp. (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. The title of the article in Investor's Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. Jennifer is now writes for the Globe and Mail.
There is not a lot of insider ownership. The current CEO owns shares worth some $19.8M but this is just 0.3% of the outstanding shares. The Chairman owns shares worth some $31.1M and this is just 0.5% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.99, 25.94 and 29.96. The 10 year corresponding ratios are lower at 16.63, 20.96 and 25.29. The current P/E Ratio is 25.97 based on a stock price of $38.95 and 2015 EPS estimate of $1.24. This test suggests that the current stock price is still reasonable, but in the top of the reasonableness range. It is above the relative median. However a P/E of $25.97 is rather high, I think, for a utility stock.
I get a Graham Price of $16.75. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41, 1.75 and 2.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.32 based on a stock price of $38.95. This stock price test suggests that this stock is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.33. The current P/B Ratio is 4.89 a value that is 101% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $38.95 and BVPS of $8.32. This stock price test suggests that this stock is relatively expensive.
Since this company is now a corporation rather than an income fund, I will only look at the 5 year Dividend Yield. The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 4.62%. The current Dividend Yield of 3.54% is based on dividends of $1.38 and a stock price of $38.95. The current dividend yield is some 25% lower than the 5 year median Dividend Yield. This stock price test suggests that this stock is relatively expensive.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price if $49.33. This implies a total return of 30.19% with 3.54% from dividends and 26.65% from capital gains.
Thomas Dobrow on Dakota Financial News talks about recent analysts ratings for this stock. On BOE Report is a press release about Keyera's third quarterly results. Joseph Solitro of the Motley Fool did a write up on this stock.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, November 23, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Keyera provides essential services and products to oil and gas producers in western Canada, and markets related natural gas liquids (NGLs) throughout North America. Its web site is here Keyera Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, November 23, 2015
Keyera Corp.
On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and the Stock Whisperer learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Infrastructure Utility stock. This stock which has only been on the TSX since 2003 has done well for its shareholders. See my spreadsheet on Keyera Corp.
I do not own this stock of Keyera Corp. (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. The title of the article in Investor's Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. Jennifer is now writes for the Globe and Mail.
This is an old income trust stock. It stopped raising its dividend the year it changed to a corporation. After one year of no increases, the dividends were again increased. Dividend increases are a bit lower after the company changed to a corporation. The 5 and 10 years dividend growth is 6.8% and 8.7% per year.
The thing with high dividend yields, which for this company was between around 5% and 8% is that you do not have to wait long for dividends to cover the cost of your stock purchase. For this company after 10 years, the dividends covered 106% of the stock price if a median price was paid for the stock. If you are a small investor investing for dividends, you do not want to lose money. When dividend yields are high, it does not take long to cover the price of your stock.
The Dividend Payout Ratio was quite high from 2010 to 2013 being 100% or plus. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 100%. However, this ratio was better in 2014 at 89.5% and it is expected to be around 90% in 2015. The DPR for CFPS is better with a 5 year median of 53% and the 2014 ratio at 39%.
The company still puts out and some analysts still follow the distributable cash for this company. This calculation has changed over the years and currently seems close to an AFFO calculation. In any even the DPR for AFFO is 53% in 2014 and its 5 year median value is 61%.
Shareholders have done well with this company. The 5 and 10 years total return to date is 21.98% and 18.91% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 4.73% and 5.30% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 17.25% and 13.61% per year. Note that dividend yields have gone down with the change to a corporation. This calculation presumed current stock price is $38.95.
The outstanding shares have increased by 5.1% and 4.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Debenture Conversions, DRIP and Share Issues. Revenue growth has been good. EPS growth has been moderate to good, as has the Distributable Cash growth. Cash Flow growth has been good.
Revenue has grown at 18.6% and 17.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 12.9% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts have expected Revenues to go down around 17% in 2015. However, if you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is up by 9.4%.
EPS has grown at 4.1% and 17.67% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect the EPS to grow at around 7% in 2015. However, if you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS is down by 11.4%. Distributable Cash has grown at 3% and 12% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Cash Flow has grown at 14.5% and 24.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 9% and 19.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect cash flow to grow at 4.9% in 2015. However, if you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is down by 2.8%.
The Return on Equity has been above 10% each year of the past 5 years. The ROE for 2014 was 17.4% and its 5 year median is 15.9%. The ROE on comprehensive income is the same as for that on net income. This suggests that the earnings are of good quality.
The Liquidity Ratio is low and the company depends on cash flow for a margin of safety. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 1.15 and if you add in cash flow after dividends it is 1.61. The Debt Ratio is fine and the value for 2014 was 1.52. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high with the 2014 values at 2.92 and 1.92.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, November 24, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Keyera provides essential services and products to oil and gas producers in western Canada, and markets related natural gas liquids (NGLs) throughout North America. Its web site is here Keyera Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Infrastructure Utility stock. This stock which has only been on the TSX since 2003 has done well for its shareholders. See my spreadsheet on Keyera Corp.
I do not own this stock of Keyera Corp. (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. The title of the article in Investor's Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. Jennifer is now writes for the Globe and Mail.
This is an old income trust stock. It stopped raising its dividend the year it changed to a corporation. After one year of no increases, the dividends were again increased. Dividend increases are a bit lower after the company changed to a corporation. The 5 and 10 years dividend growth is 6.8% and 8.7% per year.
The thing with high dividend yields, which for this company was between around 5% and 8% is that you do not have to wait long for dividends to cover the cost of your stock purchase. For this company after 10 years, the dividends covered 106% of the stock price if a median price was paid for the stock. If you are a small investor investing for dividends, you do not want to lose money. When dividend yields are high, it does not take long to cover the price of your stock.
The Dividend Payout Ratio was quite high from 2010 to 2013 being 100% or plus. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 100%. However, this ratio was better in 2014 at 89.5% and it is expected to be around 90% in 2015. The DPR for CFPS is better with a 5 year median of 53% and the 2014 ratio at 39%.
The company still puts out and some analysts still follow the distributable cash for this company. This calculation has changed over the years and currently seems close to an AFFO calculation. In any even the DPR for AFFO is 53% in 2014 and its 5 year median value is 61%.
Shareholders have done well with this company. The 5 and 10 years total return to date is 21.98% and 18.91% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 4.73% and 5.30% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 17.25% and 13.61% per year. Note that dividend yields have gone down with the change to a corporation. This calculation presumed current stock price is $38.95.
The outstanding shares have increased by 5.1% and 4.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Debenture Conversions, DRIP and Share Issues. Revenue growth has been good. EPS growth has been moderate to good, as has the Distributable Cash growth. Cash Flow growth has been good.
Revenue has grown at 18.6% and 17.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 12.9% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts have expected Revenues to go down around 17% in 2015. However, if you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is up by 9.4%.
EPS has grown at 4.1% and 17.67% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect the EPS to grow at around 7% in 2015. However, if you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS is down by 11.4%. Distributable Cash has grown at 3% and 12% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Cash Flow has grown at 14.5% and 24.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 9% and 19.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect cash flow to grow at 4.9% in 2015. However, if you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is down by 2.8%.
The Return on Equity has been above 10% each year of the past 5 years. The ROE for 2014 was 17.4% and its 5 year median is 15.9%. The ROE on comprehensive income is the same as for that on net income. This suggests that the earnings are of good quality.
The Liquidity Ratio is low and the company depends on cash flow for a margin of safety. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 1.15 and if you add in cash flow after dividends it is 1.61. The Debt Ratio is fine and the value for 2014 was 1.52. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high with the 2014 values at 2.92 and 1.92.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, November 24, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Keyera provides essential services and products to oil and gas producers in western Canada, and markets related natural gas liquids (NGLs) throughout North America. Its web site is here Keyera Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, November 20, 2015
Cenovus Energy Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock cheap, risky. They cut the dividend this year. Might there be more dividends cuts in the future? Of course the time to buy is when stocks are cheap or on sale. See my spreadsheet on Cenovus Energy Inc.
I do not own this stock of Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE). This is another stock that was talked about at the 2010 Money Show in Toronto. There were those who liked oil companies and they mentioned both Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU) and Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE). This company was split off from EnCana (TSX-ECA) in 2009. This was the oil part of EnCana. My spreadsheet reflects this split. I was also following Alberta Energy Co. (TSX-AEC) into EnCana.
This oil and gas company has also just reduced their dividends by around 40%. It has a history of paying dividends, but as with a lot of resource stocks, its dividends have not only gone up, but they have also gone down. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth to 2014 was at 5.89% and 24.7% per year. However, after the most recent decrease this changes to 5 year dividend decline of 6.2% and 10 year dividend growth at 11%.
The dividend yield has been good on this stock since it was split off from EnCana. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.8%. The current dividend, even after the recent decreases is even better at 3.1%. However, this dividend could be vulnerable to furthers cuts or suspension.
Last year, 2014, was a good year for this company. However, analysts expects drop in revenue, earnings and cash flow this year or next year.
Analysts expect a drop in Revenues of 32% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is flat. Analysts expect cash flow to drop 52% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is down by 43%.
Earnings are a bit different. Analysts expect a 9% increase EPS in 2015, but then a negative EPS in 2016. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS is down by 5%.
Debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 1.42. I would rather see it at 1.50. The Debt Ratio is quite good at 1.70 for 2014. The Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.42 and 1.42 for 2014.
The stock price has been falling since its peak in 2010 of $33.28. It is down by almost 38% to 20.67. The 5 and 10 years total returns on this stock to date are a loss of 5.70% per year and a gain of 1.24% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 3.39% and 3.32% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital loss is at 9.09% and 2.08% per year.
I get a current Graham Price for this stock of $20.34. With a current stock price of $20.67, the Price/Graham Price Ratio is 1.02. The 10 year low, median and high P/GP Ratios are 1.17, 1.47 and 1.70. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I do not know how valid the historical dividend yields are because there have been so many changes in this company. However, the 5 year median dividend yield at 2.76% is some 12% lower than the current dividend yield of 3.10%. This at least suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.22. The current P/B Ratio at 1.20 is some 64% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year P/S Ratio is 1.69. The current P/S Ratio at 1.18 is 30% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy or a Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.11. This implies a total return of 14.90% with 3.10% from dividends and 11.80% from capital gains. This is based on a current stock price of $20.67.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Andrew Walker of Motley Fool asks if this company will survive the current oil rout. He believes it can as it has cash and cash flow. Some analysts are rating this stock a buy according to News Watch International. There is also an article on this stock in the Wall Street Journal.
Cenovus Energy Inc. is an integrated oil company. The Company's operations include enhanced oil recovery (EOR) properties and established crude oil and natural gas production in Alberta and Saskatchewan. It also has ownership interests in two refineries in Illinois and Texas, United States. Its web site is here Cenovus Energy Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE). This is another stock that was talked about at the 2010 Money Show in Toronto. There were those who liked oil companies and they mentioned both Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU) and Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE). This company was split off from EnCana (TSX-ECA) in 2009. This was the oil part of EnCana. My spreadsheet reflects this split. I was also following Alberta Energy Co. (TSX-AEC) into EnCana.
This oil and gas company has also just reduced their dividends by around 40%. It has a history of paying dividends, but as with a lot of resource stocks, its dividends have not only gone up, but they have also gone down. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth to 2014 was at 5.89% and 24.7% per year. However, after the most recent decrease this changes to 5 year dividend decline of 6.2% and 10 year dividend growth at 11%.
The dividend yield has been good on this stock since it was split off from EnCana. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.8%. The current dividend, even after the recent decreases is even better at 3.1%. However, this dividend could be vulnerable to furthers cuts or suspension.
Last year, 2014, was a good year for this company. However, analysts expects drop in revenue, earnings and cash flow this year or next year.
Analysts expect a drop in Revenues of 32% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is flat. Analysts expect cash flow to drop 52% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is down by 43%.
Earnings are a bit different. Analysts expect a 9% increase EPS in 2015, but then a negative EPS in 2016. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS is down by 5%.
Debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 1.42. I would rather see it at 1.50. The Debt Ratio is quite good at 1.70 for 2014. The Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.42 and 1.42 for 2014.
The stock price has been falling since its peak in 2010 of $33.28. It is down by almost 38% to 20.67. The 5 and 10 years total returns on this stock to date are a loss of 5.70% per year and a gain of 1.24% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 3.39% and 3.32% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital loss is at 9.09% and 2.08% per year.
I get a current Graham Price for this stock of $20.34. With a current stock price of $20.67, the Price/Graham Price Ratio is 1.02. The 10 year low, median and high P/GP Ratios are 1.17, 1.47 and 1.70. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I do not know how valid the historical dividend yields are because there have been so many changes in this company. However, the 5 year median dividend yield at 2.76% is some 12% lower than the current dividend yield of 3.10%. This at least suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.22. The current P/B Ratio at 1.20 is some 64% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year P/S Ratio is 1.69. The current P/S Ratio at 1.18 is 30% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy or a Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.11. This implies a total return of 14.90% with 3.10% from dividends and 11.80% from capital gains. This is based on a current stock price of $20.67.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Andrew Walker of Motley Fool asks if this company will survive the current oil rout. He believes it can as it has cash and cash flow. Some analysts are rating this stock a buy according to News Watch International. There is also an article on this stock in the Wall Street Journal.
Cenovus Energy Inc. is an integrated oil company. The Company's operations include enhanced oil recovery (EOR) properties and established crude oil and natural gas production in Alberta and Saskatchewan. It also has ownership interests in two refineries in Illinois and Texas, United States. Its web site is here Cenovus Energy Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, November 19, 2015
Encana Corp. 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is cheap. The time to buy good companies is when they are cheap. However, another problem is that it is hard figure out when this company and indeed the oil and gas industry will recover. It may be a while yet. See my spreadsheet on Encana Corp.
I do not own this stock of Encana Corp. (TSX-ECA, NYSE-ECA) but I used to. I had held this stock previously as Alberta Energy Company from April 2000 until August 2002 and made some 18% total returns per year. I had EnCana Corp from February 2006 to November 2009 and made a 9.54% per year total return. I sold this stock in 2009 because I only had 100 shares and the stock was going to split into two companies. I would have ended up with small investment in two companies.
There is very little insider ownership. The biggest holder that I see is the Chairman who owns shares worth $1.8M that is 0.02% of the outstanding shares. There were no stock options in 2014. There was insider buying of $2M which is some 0.02% of the outstanding shares. There was no insider selling.
There is no point in looking at P/E Ratio as the EPS is expected to be negative in 2014. For Graham Price, I get one of $13.04. The 10 year Low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 0.78, 1.03 and 1.19. The current P/PG Ratio is 0.86 based on a stock price of $11.24. This would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.96. The current P/B Ratio is 0.93, a value some 53% lower than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.12%. The current dividend yield is 3.32% based on dividends of $0.37 CDN$ and a stock price of $11.24. The current dividend yield is some 6% higher than the 5 year median and this suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. If you look at the historical median dividend yield it is 1.45%. This current dividend yield is 129% higher and this suggests that the stock price is cheap.
This stock hit a high in 2008 of $49.46 and it is now some 77% lower at $11.24. The stock has lost some 30% of its value in this year alone. Of course revenue, earnings and cash flow are all expected to fall this year.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. There are even numbers of the Buy and Hold recommendations and these are the most numerous. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $12.50 US$. This implies a total return of 51.78% with 3.335 from dividends and 48.46% from capital gains.
This article in the Financial Post talks about Encana Corp delaying Alberta gas plants until royalty review concludes. This article at the UPI site says shale-focused Encana Corp.'s overall production was up 35 percent from last year. See some analysts' comments at Stock Chase.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, November 18, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Encana is a leading North American energy producer that is focused on growing its strong portfolio of diverse resource plays producing natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids. Its web site is here Encana Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Encana Corp. (TSX-ECA, NYSE-ECA) but I used to. I had held this stock previously as Alberta Energy Company from April 2000 until August 2002 and made some 18% total returns per year. I had EnCana Corp from February 2006 to November 2009 and made a 9.54% per year total return. I sold this stock in 2009 because I only had 100 shares and the stock was going to split into two companies. I would have ended up with small investment in two companies.
There is very little insider ownership. The biggest holder that I see is the Chairman who owns shares worth $1.8M that is 0.02% of the outstanding shares. There were no stock options in 2014. There was insider buying of $2M which is some 0.02% of the outstanding shares. There was no insider selling.
There is no point in looking at P/E Ratio as the EPS is expected to be negative in 2014. For Graham Price, I get one of $13.04. The 10 year Low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 0.78, 1.03 and 1.19. The current P/PG Ratio is 0.86 based on a stock price of $11.24. This would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.96. The current P/B Ratio is 0.93, a value some 53% lower than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.12%. The current dividend yield is 3.32% based on dividends of $0.37 CDN$ and a stock price of $11.24. The current dividend yield is some 6% higher than the 5 year median and this suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. If you look at the historical median dividend yield it is 1.45%. This current dividend yield is 129% higher and this suggests that the stock price is cheap.
This stock hit a high in 2008 of $49.46 and it is now some 77% lower at $11.24. The stock has lost some 30% of its value in this year alone. Of course revenue, earnings and cash flow are all expected to fall this year.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. There are even numbers of the Buy and Hold recommendations and these are the most numerous. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $12.50 US$. This implies a total return of 51.78% with 3.335 from dividends and 48.46% from capital gains.
This article in the Financial Post talks about Encana Corp delaying Alberta gas plants until royalty review concludes. This article at the UPI site says shale-focused Encana Corp.'s overall production was up 35 percent from last year. See some analysts' comments at Stock Chase.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, November 18, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Encana is a leading North American energy producer that is focused on growing its strong portfolio of diverse resource plays producing natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids. Its web site is here Encana Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
Encana Corp.
On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and the Motley Fool learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend paying oil and gas company. This company is not expected to do well in 2015, but it should start to pick up again in 2016 or 2017. See my spreadsheet on Encana Corp.
I do not own this stock of Encana Corp. (TSX-ECA, NYSE-ECA) but I used to. I had held this stock previously as Alberta Energy Company from April 2000 until August 2002 and made some 18% total returns per year. I had EnCana Corp from February 2006 to November 2009 and made a 9.54% per year total return. I sold this stock in 2009 because I only had 100 shares and the stock was going to split into two companies. I would have ended up with small investment in two companies.
Dividends on this stock are paid in US$. The problem for Canadian Investors is that they will not know how much in dividends they will actually get each quarter because of currency exchange fluctuations. The earnings were not good from 2011 to 2013 inclusive. Earnings are expected to be negative in 2015 and low in 2016. Dividends were cut in 2014 by some 65% in US$.
Dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is a decline of 18.9% per year over the past 5 years and an increase of 10.5% per year over the past 10 years, in US$. In CDN$, dividends are down by 17.3% per year over the past 5 years and an increase of 10.1% per year over the past 10 years. This company is into oil and gas so the dividends have gone both up and down over the years.
Another measure of dividends is how much of a shareholders stock has been paid off in dividends over the years and what sort of yield a shareholder is getting on this stock bought in the past. If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago and paid a median price, the dividends would have covered 9.4%, 24% and 73% of your stock's price. If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago, you would be earnings a yield of 1.2%, 1.4% or 3.9%. These are in CDN$.
The current dividend yield is moderate at 3.3% based on dividends of $0.37 CDN$ ($0.28 US$) and a stock price of $11.24 CDN$ ($8.42 US).
The outstanding shares have decreased by 0.3% and 1.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, Stock Options and DRIP. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Since this stock is reporting in US$, all my growth figures will be in US$ terms. All resource stocks are having a difficult time currently.
Revenue growth is non-existent to moderate. Earnings growth is good. Cash Flow growth is non-existent to good. 2014 was a good year for this company with Revenue growing 36.7%, Earnings growing 1331% and Cash Flow growing 6.7%.
Revenue was down by 6.3% per year over the past 5 years and up by 4.3% per year over the past 10 years. Revenue per Share was down by 6.1% per year over the past 5 years and up by 6.3% per year over the past 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue to drop by 42% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is down by 30%.
EPS is up by 13% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect EPS to be negative in 2014. For the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, there is an earnings loss of $5.32.
Cash flow is down by 19% per year over the past 5 years and up by 5.1% per year over the past 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 18.9% per year over the past 5 years and up by 7.2% per year over the past 10 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to be down by 50% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is down by 44%.
The year 2014 is the first year in the past 5 years that ROE was above 10%. The ROE for 2014 was 35%. However, the 5 year median is just 4.6%. The ROE on comprehensive income was 35.1% and its 5 year median is 4.9%. The closeness of these ROEs suggests that the earnings are of good quality.
The debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 1.19 which is lower than it has been for a while. The Liquidity Ratio for the end of the third quarter is lower at 1.17. This low ratio is better if you add in cash flow after dividends as it is then 1.88. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.65 in 2014. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine if a little high at 2.54 and 1.54 in 2014.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, November 19, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Encana is a leading North American energy producer that is focused on growing its strong portfolio of diverse resource plays producing natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids. Its web site is here Encana Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend paying oil and gas company. This company is not expected to do well in 2015, but it should start to pick up again in 2016 or 2017. See my spreadsheet on Encana Corp.
I do not own this stock of Encana Corp. (TSX-ECA, NYSE-ECA) but I used to. I had held this stock previously as Alberta Energy Company from April 2000 until August 2002 and made some 18% total returns per year. I had EnCana Corp from February 2006 to November 2009 and made a 9.54% per year total return. I sold this stock in 2009 because I only had 100 shares and the stock was going to split into two companies. I would have ended up with small investment in two companies.
Dividends on this stock are paid in US$. The problem for Canadian Investors is that they will not know how much in dividends they will actually get each quarter because of currency exchange fluctuations. The earnings were not good from 2011 to 2013 inclusive. Earnings are expected to be negative in 2015 and low in 2016. Dividends were cut in 2014 by some 65% in US$.
Dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is a decline of 18.9% per year over the past 5 years and an increase of 10.5% per year over the past 10 years, in US$. In CDN$, dividends are down by 17.3% per year over the past 5 years and an increase of 10.1% per year over the past 10 years. This company is into oil and gas so the dividends have gone both up and down over the years.
Another measure of dividends is how much of a shareholders stock has been paid off in dividends over the years and what sort of yield a shareholder is getting on this stock bought in the past. If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago and paid a median price, the dividends would have covered 9.4%, 24% and 73% of your stock's price. If you had bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago, you would be earnings a yield of 1.2%, 1.4% or 3.9%. These are in CDN$.
The current dividend yield is moderate at 3.3% based on dividends of $0.37 CDN$ ($0.28 US$) and a stock price of $11.24 CDN$ ($8.42 US).
The outstanding shares have decreased by 0.3% and 1.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, Stock Options and DRIP. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Since this stock is reporting in US$, all my growth figures will be in US$ terms. All resource stocks are having a difficult time currently.
Revenue growth is non-existent to moderate. Earnings growth is good. Cash Flow growth is non-existent to good. 2014 was a good year for this company with Revenue growing 36.7%, Earnings growing 1331% and Cash Flow growing 6.7%.
Revenue was down by 6.3% per year over the past 5 years and up by 4.3% per year over the past 10 years. Revenue per Share was down by 6.1% per year over the past 5 years and up by 6.3% per year over the past 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue to drop by 42% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is down by 30%.
EPS is up by 13% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect EPS to be negative in 2014. For the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, there is an earnings loss of $5.32.
Cash flow is down by 19% per year over the past 5 years and up by 5.1% per year over the past 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 18.9% per year over the past 5 years and up by 7.2% per year over the past 10 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to be down by 50% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is down by 44%.
The year 2014 is the first year in the past 5 years that ROE was above 10%. The ROE for 2014 was 35%. However, the 5 year median is just 4.6%. The ROE on comprehensive income was 35.1% and its 5 year median is 4.9%. The closeness of these ROEs suggests that the earnings are of good quality.
The debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 1.19 which is lower than it has been for a while. The Liquidity Ratio for the end of the third quarter is lower at 1.17. This low ratio is better if you add in cash flow after dividends as it is then 1.88. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.65 in 2014. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine if a little high at 2.54 and 1.54 in 2014.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, November 19, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Encana is a leading North American energy producer that is focused on growing its strong portfolio of diverse resource plays producing natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids. Its web site is here Encana Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
CCL Industries Inc. 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is relatively expensive. Analysts tend to gives buys when stocks rising and expensive and sells when they are falling and cheap. I suggest the opposite if you are a long term investor. This stock does have momentum. Are insiders selling because the stock price is expensive? See my spreadsheet on CCL Industries Inc.
I do not own this stock of CCL Industries Inc. (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF). In 2009 I read a favorable report on this stock of which I had also heard of before. This is also a dividend paying stock and in 2009 it was on Dividend Achievers list.
The significant ownership is by Donald G. Lang and Stuart W. Lang which through 1281228 Ontario Inc. they own almost 95% of the Class A Shares. Class A shares are voting shares and Class B shares, which are on the TSX, are non-voting shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.69, 13.22 and 15.03. The 10 year corresponding values are close at 11.65, 13.23 and 14.95. The current P/E Ratio is 27.86 based on a stock price of $207.00 and 2015 EPS estimate of $7.43. This stock testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $84.91. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76, 0.92 and 1.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.44 based on a stock price of $207.00. This stock testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.43. The current P/B Ratio is 4.80 based on a BVPS of $43.13 and a stock price of $207.00. This stock testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The current Dividend Yield is 0.72% based on a stock price of $207.00 and dividends of $1.50. The historical low Dividend yield is 1.19% and the current Dividend yield is some 39% lower than this. This stock testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $227.00. This implies a total return of 10.39% with 0.72% from dividends and 9.66% from capital gains.
Some of the analysts on Stock Chase like this stock. This article on Dakota Financial News talks about insider selling and analysts giving this stock a buy rating. This article in Canadian Plastics talks about a recent CCL acquisition.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, November 16, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
A global specialty packaging pioneer, CCL is the largest label company in the world and provides innovative solutions to the Home & Personal Care, Premium Food & Beverage, Healthcare & Specialty, Automotive & Durables and Consumer markets worldwide. The Company is divided into three reporting segments: CCL Label, CCL Container and its consumer arm, Avery. Its web site is here CCL Industries Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of CCL Industries Inc. (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF). In 2009 I read a favorable report on this stock of which I had also heard of before. This is also a dividend paying stock and in 2009 it was on Dividend Achievers list.
The significant ownership is by Donald G. Lang and Stuart W. Lang which through 1281228 Ontario Inc. they own almost 95% of the Class A Shares. Class A shares are voting shares and Class B shares, which are on the TSX, are non-voting shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.69, 13.22 and 15.03. The 10 year corresponding values are close at 11.65, 13.23 and 14.95. The current P/E Ratio is 27.86 based on a stock price of $207.00 and 2015 EPS estimate of $7.43. This stock testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $84.91. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76, 0.92 and 1.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.44 based on a stock price of $207.00. This stock testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.43. The current P/B Ratio is 4.80 based on a BVPS of $43.13 and a stock price of $207.00. This stock testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The current Dividend Yield is 0.72% based on a stock price of $207.00 and dividends of $1.50. The historical low Dividend yield is 1.19% and the current Dividend yield is some 39% lower than this. This stock testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $227.00. This implies a total return of 10.39% with 0.72% from dividends and 9.66% from capital gains.
Some of the analysts on Stock Chase like this stock. This article on Dakota Financial News talks about insider selling and analysts giving this stock a buy rating. This article in Canadian Plastics talks about a recent CCL acquisition.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, November 16, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
A global specialty packaging pioneer, CCL is the largest label company in the world and provides innovative solutions to the Home & Personal Care, Premium Food & Beverage, Healthcare & Specialty, Automotive & Durables and Consumer markets worldwide. The Company is divided into three reporting segments: CCL Label, CCL Container and its consumer arm, Avery. Its web site is here CCL Industries Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, November 16, 2015
CCL Industries Inc.
On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and FinTech learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial stock. This company had some problems in 2008 and 2009, but has done quite well since. See my spreadsheet on CCL Industries Inc.
I do not own this stock of CCL Industries Inc. (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF). In 2009 I read a favorable report on this stock of which I had also heard of before. This is also a dividend paying stock and in 2009 it was on Dividend Achievers list.
This company has been paying dividends since 1988. They have increased their dividends every year since 1999 expect for one year of 2001. The dividend yield is low and the dividend increases are moderate. The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 13% and 10.9% per year. The current dividend yield is 0.72% based on a stock price of $207.00 and dividends at $1.50. The 5 year median dividend yield is much higher at 2.1%.
The current dividend yield is lower than the historical low one of 1.2%. If you had held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years, you would be earning 5.3%, 6% or 14.7% on your original stock price if you had paid a median price for your stock. If you had held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years, your original stock price would be covered by dividend payments up by 15.7%, 30.8% or 92.7% if you had paid a median price for your stock.
Shareholders have done well recently as total return for this last 5 and 10 years is at 35.39% and 17.21% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividend is 1.83% and 1.29% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 33.56% and 15.92% per year.
Total outstanding share have increase by 1% and 0.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues. They have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue growth is moderate to good. Earnings growth is good. Cash Flow growth is good.
Revenue has grown at 16.6% and 5.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 15.5% and 4.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue to grow at around 15% in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of December 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue has grown at 11%.
EPS has grown by 36.8% and 13.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect growth in EPS for 1015 of 20%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of December 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS has grown at 23.8%.
Cash Flow has grown at 26.1% and 13.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 24.8% and 12.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect growth in 2015 of around 28%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of December 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow has grown at only 8.2%.
The Liquidity Ratio tends to be a bit low. I prefer it to be at 1.50 for safety sake. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is 1.37. If you add in cash flow after dividends it becomes 1.98. The Debt Ratio for 2014 is 1.87. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high but not unusual at 2.15 and 1.15.
The Return on Equity has been above 10% in the last 4 out 5 years and 7 of the last 10 year. It was below 10% in 2008 to 2010 inclusive. The ROE in 2014 was 17.8% with a 5 year median of 10.3%. The ROE on comprehensive income is a little lower with the ROE in 2014 at 17.35 and the 5 year median at 9.9%.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, November 17, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
A global specialty packaging pioneer, CCL is the largest label company in the world and provides innovative solutions to the Home & Personal Care, Premium Food & Beverage, Healthcare & Specialty, Automotive & Durables and Consumer markets worldwide. The Company is divided into three reporting segments: CCL Label, CCL Container and its consumer arm, Avery. Its web site is here CCL Industries Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial stock. This company had some problems in 2008 and 2009, but has done quite well since. See my spreadsheet on CCL Industries Inc.
I do not own this stock of CCL Industries Inc. (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF). In 2009 I read a favorable report on this stock of which I had also heard of before. This is also a dividend paying stock and in 2009 it was on Dividend Achievers list.
This company has been paying dividends since 1988. They have increased their dividends every year since 1999 expect for one year of 2001. The dividend yield is low and the dividend increases are moderate. The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 13% and 10.9% per year. The current dividend yield is 0.72% based on a stock price of $207.00 and dividends at $1.50. The 5 year median dividend yield is much higher at 2.1%.
The current dividend yield is lower than the historical low one of 1.2%. If you had held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years, you would be earning 5.3%, 6% or 14.7% on your original stock price if you had paid a median price for your stock. If you had held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years, your original stock price would be covered by dividend payments up by 15.7%, 30.8% or 92.7% if you had paid a median price for your stock.
Shareholders have done well recently as total return for this last 5 and 10 years is at 35.39% and 17.21% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividend is 1.83% and 1.29% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 33.56% and 15.92% per year.
Total outstanding share have increase by 1% and 0.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues. They have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue growth is moderate to good. Earnings growth is good. Cash Flow growth is good.
Revenue has grown at 16.6% and 5.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 15.5% and 4.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue to grow at around 15% in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of December 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue has grown at 11%.
EPS has grown by 36.8% and 13.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect growth in EPS for 1015 of 20%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of December 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS has grown at 23.8%.
Cash Flow has grown at 26.1% and 13.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 24.8% and 12.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect growth in 2015 of around 28%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of December 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow has grown at only 8.2%.
The Liquidity Ratio tends to be a bit low. I prefer it to be at 1.50 for safety sake. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is 1.37. If you add in cash flow after dividends it becomes 1.98. The Debt Ratio for 2014 is 1.87. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high but not unusual at 2.15 and 1.15.
The Return on Equity has been above 10% in the last 4 out 5 years and 7 of the last 10 year. It was below 10% in 2008 to 2010 inclusive. The ROE in 2014 was 17.8% with a 5 year median of 10.3%. The ROE on comprehensive income is a little lower with the ROE in 2014 at 17.35 and the 5 year median at 9.9%.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, November 17, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
A global specialty packaging pioneer, CCL is the largest label company in the world and provides innovative solutions to the Home & Personal Care, Premium Food & Beverage, Healthcare & Specialty, Automotive & Durables and Consumer markets worldwide. The Company is divided into three reporting segments: CCL Label, CCL Container and its consumer arm, Avery. Its web site is here CCL Industries Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, November 13, 2015
Canadian Oil Sands
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Hostile takeover bid. Canadian Oil Sands feels that Suncor is trying to buy them too cheap. Others feel that there is a chance this company will not survive if Suncor retracts it bid. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Oil Sands.
I do not own this stock of Canadian Oil Sands (TSX-COS, OTC-COSWF). I am reviewing this stock because when anyone talks about investing in Canadian Oil Sands, this is the stock that seems to be mentioned first. As with some other investment in oil companies, if the dividend is good, then it will vary according to the price of oil.
This is an oil company and its dividends have both gone up and down over the years. Most recently this year, the dividends have been cut by almost 86%. The current dividend yield is one of the lowest for this company at just 2 %. This historical low is 2.6%. In 2014 the company had one of its highest dividend yields at around 16% just prior to the dividend cut.
Since the company was formed in 1995, it has paid a lot in dividends. If you had bought this company 5, 10 to 15 years ago and paid a median price, dividends would have covered 19.2%, 74.1% and 300% of the cost of your stock purchase.
No one expects this company to have a good year in 2015. Analysts expect the revenue to drop by around 38%. They expect the EPS to be negative. They expect cash flow to fall by around 58%. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue has fallen by 30%, EPS is negative and Cash Flow has fallen by 16%.
You cannot do the usual stock price valuations. First when the EPS is negative, you cannot do a P/E Ratio test. In 2016, the P/E Ratio is expected to be a round 62.13 and in 2017 it will fall to a still high but much more reasonable 18.73. However, estimates out this far can be expected to be way off the mark.
When I look at the 10 years Price/Book Value per Share Ratio I get a ratio of 3.09. The current P/B Ratio is a lot lower at 1.24. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, we can probably expect a future drop in BVPS over the next while. BVPS was down by 5% in 2014 and by another 14% to the end of the third quarter in 2015.
The 10 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 8.88. The P/CF Ratio for 2015 is expected to be around 15.29, a rather high value. This ratio is expected to fall to around 7.47 in 2016 and this starts to show that the stock may be relatively cheap.
The stock price has fallen a lot since its peak in 2009. The fall is around 18% per year. The current stock price is $9.94 and it has not been this cheap since 2004.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $9.89. This implies a total return of 1.51% with 2.01% from dividends and a capital loss of 0.50%.
This article in the Financial Post talks about the hostile takeover bid from Suncor Energy and that the price of this stock will fall hard if Suncor retracts its bid. Andrew Walker of the Motley Fool thinks that there is a chance that the company will not survive if Suncor retracts its bid. (Note sometimes you have to go out and back into Motley Fool articles to get the full article.) There are comments from different analyst at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Canadian Oil Sands Trust provides a pure investment opportunity in the oil sands through its 36.74% interest in the Syncrude Project. Syncrude is an experienced oil sands operator, producing a high-quality crude oil for the past 30 years. With large, bitumen-rich leases located in the sweet spot of the Athabasca oil sands deposit and a fully integrated upgrading facility that produces 100% light, sweet crude oil, the quality of their Syncrude asset is very good. Its web site is here Canadian Oil Sands.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Canadian Oil Sands (TSX-COS, OTC-COSWF). I am reviewing this stock because when anyone talks about investing in Canadian Oil Sands, this is the stock that seems to be mentioned first. As with some other investment in oil companies, if the dividend is good, then it will vary according to the price of oil.
This is an oil company and its dividends have both gone up and down over the years. Most recently this year, the dividends have been cut by almost 86%. The current dividend yield is one of the lowest for this company at just 2 %. This historical low is 2.6%. In 2014 the company had one of its highest dividend yields at around 16% just prior to the dividend cut.
Since the company was formed in 1995, it has paid a lot in dividends. If you had bought this company 5, 10 to 15 years ago and paid a median price, dividends would have covered 19.2%, 74.1% and 300% of the cost of your stock purchase.
No one expects this company to have a good year in 2015. Analysts expect the revenue to drop by around 38%. They expect the EPS to be negative. They expect cash flow to fall by around 58%. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue has fallen by 30%, EPS is negative and Cash Flow has fallen by 16%.
You cannot do the usual stock price valuations. First when the EPS is negative, you cannot do a P/E Ratio test. In 2016, the P/E Ratio is expected to be a round 62.13 and in 2017 it will fall to a still high but much more reasonable 18.73. However, estimates out this far can be expected to be way off the mark.
When I look at the 10 years Price/Book Value per Share Ratio I get a ratio of 3.09. The current P/B Ratio is a lot lower at 1.24. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, we can probably expect a future drop in BVPS over the next while. BVPS was down by 5% in 2014 and by another 14% to the end of the third quarter in 2015.
The 10 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 8.88. The P/CF Ratio for 2015 is expected to be around 15.29, a rather high value. This ratio is expected to fall to around 7.47 in 2016 and this starts to show that the stock may be relatively cheap.
The stock price has fallen a lot since its peak in 2009. The fall is around 18% per year. The current stock price is $9.94 and it has not been this cheap since 2004.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $9.89. This implies a total return of 1.51% with 2.01% from dividends and a capital loss of 0.50%.
This article in the Financial Post talks about the hostile takeover bid from Suncor Energy and that the price of this stock will fall hard if Suncor retracts its bid. Andrew Walker of the Motley Fool thinks that there is a chance that the company will not survive if Suncor retracts its bid. (Note sometimes you have to go out and back into Motley Fool articles to get the full article.) There are comments from different analyst at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Canadian Oil Sands Trust provides a pure investment opportunity in the oil sands through its 36.74% interest in the Syncrude Project. Syncrude is an experienced oil sands operator, producing a high-quality crude oil for the past 30 years. With large, bitumen-rich leases located in the sweet spot of the Athabasca oil sands deposit and a fully integrated upgrading facility that produces 100% light, sweet crude oil, the quality of their Syncrude asset is very good. Its web site is here Canadian Oil Sands.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock reasonable to expensive. The dividend yield has certainly been a lot lower in the past 5 years. Dividend increases have not been as good probably because the 2008 and 2009 Dividend Payout Ratios, especially re EPS got too high. They also got high in 2013. See my spreadsheet on Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
I do not own this stock of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM). I bought this stock as Hees International in first in 1987. Between 1991 and when I sold in 1999 there was no dividend increases. The stock was going nowhere at that time, so I sold. There have been a lot of name changes and amalgamations since I had this stock.
This article by Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation explains the complicated set up of Brookfield and explains that Partners Limited, a private holding company controls this company via their Class B shares that can vote for one half of the Board of Directors.
For insider ownership, the CEO has shares worth around $1.2B and 2.8% of the shares. Timothy Robert Price, a 10% holder has shares worth $707.5M and around 1.6% of the outstanding shares. It is interesting that the Chairman of the Board has none according to the report I read.
There was a minor amount of insider buying when I look at insider trading. However, net insider selling was at $96.6M and 0.38% of the outstanding shares. This is a lot. For the stocks I cover the median net insider selling is at 0.02% and 70% of the companies I cover have net insider selling at 0.10% or less.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.28, 11.70 and 12.61. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.14, 13.00 and 15.63. The Historical P/E Median is 12.30. The current P/E Ratio is 20.25 based on a stock price of $45.81 CDN$ and 2015 EPS estimate of $2.26 CDN$. (US P/E Ratio is 20.26 based on a stock price of $34.44 and 2015 EPS estimate of $1.70 US$.) This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $38.91 CDN$. The 10 years low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.77, 0.89 and 1.03. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.18 based on a stock price of $45.81 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.52. The current P/B Ratio is 1.54 based on a BVPS of $29.75 CDN$ and a stock price of $45.81. The current P/B Ratio is just 1.04% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and only slightly above the relative median.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.70%. The current dividend yield is 1.39% based on a stock price of $45.81 CDN$ and dividends of $0.64 CDN$. The current dividend is some 18% lower than the 5 year median. This testing suggests that the stock may still be relatively reasonable but way above the relative median. (You get similar results in US$ with 5 year median at 1.70%, current dividend at 1.39% on dividends of $0.48 US$ and a stock price of $34.44 US$.)
The historical median dividend yield is 3.51% CDN$ and at 2.90% US$. These yields are 60% and 52% higher than the current dividend yield of 1.39%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $35.40 US$. This implies a total return of 4.18% with 2.79% from capital gains and 1.39% from dividends. There is a problem with the consensus stock price because the range is big with the high at $43.00 and the low at $22.23. Some analyst really like this stock, see Stock Chase.
This article in the Dakota Financial News talk about recent analysts changes for Brookfield. For example analysts at Zacks upgraded the stock from a Sell to a Hold. The Wall Street Observer gives an analysis of this stock. Jacob Donnelly of the Motley Fool suggests that this stock deserves to be in your portfolio.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, November 11, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This Canadian Asset Managing company invests in and operates a variety of assets on its own behalf as well as co-investors. It is focused on property, power and infrastructure assets. It operates in Canada, US and internationally. The subsidiaries of the Company are Brookfield Homes Corporation, Brookfield Properties Corporation, BPO Properties Limited, Multiplex, Brookfield Power Inc., Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund, Brascan Brasil, S.A., Brascan Residential Properties, S.A. and Brookfield Investments Corporation. Its web site is here Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM). I bought this stock as Hees International in first in 1987. Between 1991 and when I sold in 1999 there was no dividend increases. The stock was going nowhere at that time, so I sold. There have been a lot of name changes and amalgamations since I had this stock.
This article by Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation explains the complicated set up of Brookfield and explains that Partners Limited, a private holding company controls this company via their Class B shares that can vote for one half of the Board of Directors.
For insider ownership, the CEO has shares worth around $1.2B and 2.8% of the shares. Timothy Robert Price, a 10% holder has shares worth $707.5M and around 1.6% of the outstanding shares. It is interesting that the Chairman of the Board has none according to the report I read.
There was a minor amount of insider buying when I look at insider trading. However, net insider selling was at $96.6M and 0.38% of the outstanding shares. This is a lot. For the stocks I cover the median net insider selling is at 0.02% and 70% of the companies I cover have net insider selling at 0.10% or less.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.28, 11.70 and 12.61. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.14, 13.00 and 15.63. The Historical P/E Median is 12.30. The current P/E Ratio is 20.25 based on a stock price of $45.81 CDN$ and 2015 EPS estimate of $2.26 CDN$. (US P/E Ratio is 20.26 based on a stock price of $34.44 and 2015 EPS estimate of $1.70 US$.) This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $38.91 CDN$. The 10 years low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.77, 0.89 and 1.03. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.18 based on a stock price of $45.81 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.52. The current P/B Ratio is 1.54 based on a BVPS of $29.75 CDN$ and a stock price of $45.81. The current P/B Ratio is just 1.04% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and only slightly above the relative median.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.70%. The current dividend yield is 1.39% based on a stock price of $45.81 CDN$ and dividends of $0.64 CDN$. The current dividend is some 18% lower than the 5 year median. This testing suggests that the stock may still be relatively reasonable but way above the relative median. (You get similar results in US$ with 5 year median at 1.70%, current dividend at 1.39% on dividends of $0.48 US$ and a stock price of $34.44 US$.)
The historical median dividend yield is 3.51% CDN$ and at 2.90% US$. These yields are 60% and 52% higher than the current dividend yield of 1.39%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $35.40 US$. This implies a total return of 4.18% with 2.79% from capital gains and 1.39% from dividends. There is a problem with the consensus stock price because the range is big with the high at $43.00 and the low at $22.23. Some analyst really like this stock, see Stock Chase.
This article in the Dakota Financial News talk about recent analysts changes for Brookfield. For example analysts at Zacks upgraded the stock from a Sell to a Hold. The Wall Street Observer gives an analysis of this stock. Jacob Donnelly of the Motley Fool suggests that this stock deserves to be in your portfolio.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, November 11, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This Canadian Asset Managing company invests in and operates a variety of assets on its own behalf as well as co-investors. It is focused on property, power and infrastructure assets. It operates in Canada, US and internationally. The subsidiaries of the Company are Brookfield Homes Corporation, Brookfield Properties Corporation, BPO Properties Limited, Multiplex, Brookfield Power Inc., Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund, Brascan Brasil, S.A., Brascan Residential Properties, S.A. and Brookfield Investments Corporation. Its web site is here Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and ETFs learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth RE Company. The past has been good, but analysts do not see a very good year for this company in 2015. Analysts only see is rise in Revenue, but expect Earnings and Cash Flow to decline. See my spreadsheet on Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
I do not own this stock of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM). I bought this stock as Hees International in first in 1987. Between 1991 and when I sold in 1999 there was no dividend increases. The stock was going nowhere at that time, so I sold. There have been a lot of name changes and amalgamations since I had this stock.
First of all this company reports in US$ and distributes its dividend in US$. For Canadians, the distribution of dividends in US$ means that dividends are going to vary all the time as currency exchanges vary all the time.
Currently the dividends are low and the dividend growth is low to moderate. The current dividend is just 1.4% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $34.44 US and $45.81 CDN$. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.7%. Dividends have growth over the past 5 and 10 years at the rate of 6% and 9.5% per year in CDN$. Dividends have grown over the past 5 and 10 years at the rate of 3.9% and 9.9% per year in US$. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and it was for 5.9%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for 2014 in US$ terms was 14.6% for EPS and 13.6% for CFPS. The 5 year median values are 22.3% and 14.8%. The DPR for 2015 is expected to a bit higher at 27.8% for EPS and 27% for CFPS. Earnings and Cash Flows are expected to decline in 2015.
Shareholders have done well over the past 5 and 10 years with total returns of 18.22%and 12.49% per year, respectively. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 2.56% and 2.3% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 15.665 and 10.19% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 1.6% and 0.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to DRIP, Stock Options and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. All my growth figures will be in US$ terms as this company reports in US$. Revenue growth is moderate to good. Earnings growth is good. Cash Flow growth is good.
Revenue has grown by 8.7% and 16.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown by 7.1% and 16.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth in Revenue this year by around 7.9%. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, Revenue has only grown at 0.6%.
EPS has grown by 45.8% and 17.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect earnings to decline by 45% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, EPS has only declined at 20%.
Cash Flow has grown at 12.9% and 16.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has grown at 11.2% and 15.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to decline by 35% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, Cash Flow has only declined at 6%.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% once in the past 5 years and twice in the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 was 15.4% and the 5 year median is 11.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 is 16.9% and the 5 year median is 10.4%.
The company does not separate out current assets and liabilities. However, I determined a Liquidity Ratio of 2.25. The Debt Ratio is 1.70. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.43 and 1.43. These ratios all look fine.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, November 12, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This Canadian Asset Managing company invests in and operates a variety of assets on its own behalf as well as co-investors. It is focused on property, power and infrastructure assets. It operates in Canada, US and internationally. The subsidiaries of the Company are Brookfield Homes Corporation, Brookfield Properties Corporation, BPO Properties Limited, Multiplex, Brookfield Power Inc., Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund, Brascan Brasil, S.A., Brascan Residential Properties, S.A. and Brookfield Investments Corporation. Its web site is here Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth RE Company. The past has been good, but analysts do not see a very good year for this company in 2015. Analysts only see is rise in Revenue, but expect Earnings and Cash Flow to decline. See my spreadsheet on Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
I do not own this stock of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM). I bought this stock as Hees International in first in 1987. Between 1991 and when I sold in 1999 there was no dividend increases. The stock was going nowhere at that time, so I sold. There have been a lot of name changes and amalgamations since I had this stock.
First of all this company reports in US$ and distributes its dividend in US$. For Canadians, the distribution of dividends in US$ means that dividends are going to vary all the time as currency exchanges vary all the time.
Currently the dividends are low and the dividend growth is low to moderate. The current dividend is just 1.4% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $34.44 US and $45.81 CDN$. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.7%. Dividends have growth over the past 5 and 10 years at the rate of 6% and 9.5% per year in CDN$. Dividends have grown over the past 5 and 10 years at the rate of 3.9% and 9.9% per year in US$. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and it was for 5.9%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for 2014 in US$ terms was 14.6% for EPS and 13.6% for CFPS. The 5 year median values are 22.3% and 14.8%. The DPR for 2015 is expected to a bit higher at 27.8% for EPS and 27% for CFPS. Earnings and Cash Flows are expected to decline in 2015.
Shareholders have done well over the past 5 and 10 years with total returns of 18.22%and 12.49% per year, respectively. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 2.56% and 2.3% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 15.665 and 10.19% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 1.6% and 0.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to DRIP, Stock Options and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. All my growth figures will be in US$ terms as this company reports in US$. Revenue growth is moderate to good. Earnings growth is good. Cash Flow growth is good.
Revenue has grown by 8.7% and 16.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown by 7.1% and 16.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth in Revenue this year by around 7.9%. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, Revenue has only grown at 0.6%.
EPS has grown by 45.8% and 17.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect earnings to decline by 45% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, EPS has only declined at 20%.
Cash Flow has grown at 12.9% and 16.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has grown at 11.2% and 15.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to decline by 35% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, Cash Flow has only declined at 6%.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% once in the past 5 years and twice in the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 was 15.4% and the 5 year median is 11.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 is 16.9% and the 5 year median is 10.4%.
The company does not separate out current assets and liabilities. However, I determined a Liquidity Ratio of 2.25. The Debt Ratio is 1.70. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.43 and 1.43. These ratios all look fine.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, November 12, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This Canadian Asset Managing company invests in and operates a variety of assets on its own behalf as well as co-investors. It is focused on property, power and infrastructure assets. It operates in Canada, US and internationally. The subsidiaries of the Company are Brookfield Homes Corporation, Brookfield Properties Corporation, BPO Properties Limited, Multiplex, Brookfield Power Inc., Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund, Brascan Brasil, S.A., Brascan Residential Properties, S.A. and Brookfield Investments Corporation. Its web site is here Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
TransForce Inc. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and Globe and Mail Panel learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price could be reasonable, but above relative median. Stock is a big pricey because it is above the relative median. There is also insider selling. Although you never know why people sell stocks, insiders seem reluctant to hold shares. Of course, insider could just been viewing stocks as part of their salary. See my spreadsheet on TransForce Inc.
I do not own this stock of TransForce Inc. (TSX-TIF, OTC-TFIFF). I read a report called "6 Canadian Dividend Stocks That Fly Under the Radar" by John Heinzl in April of 2013. This is one of the stocks mentioned. There was also a good review of this stock by Advice Hotline by MPL Communications.
There are not a lot of insider holdings. The Alain Bedard, Chairman and CEO, has shares worth around $106.9M and some 4.3% of outstanding shares. I find the number of stock options given is a lot. The stock options for 2014, 2013 and 2012 are 0.37%, 0.50% and 0.60% of outstanding shares. Of the companies I follow, the median stock options given per year are 0.23% and 70% of these companies have less than 0.50% of stock options. So stock options appear to be at the top end and above.
Also, the net insider selling seems high. Over the past year there has been net insider selling of 0.21%. When I look at this last year, net insider selling was 0.08%. For most of the companies I follow, the median Net Insider selling is at around 0.02% and 70% of the companies have net insider selling of less than 0.10%. Insiders seem to be selling off most of the stock options that they get.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share ratios are 9.53, 12.18 and 14.84. The corresponding 10 year values are close at 9.18, 11.49 and 13.79. The historical median P/E Ratio is 10.79. The current P/E Ratio is 14.50. This s based on a stock price of $25.10 and 2015 EPS of $1.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price could be relatively reasonable, but it is above the relative median.
I get a Graham Price of $19.87. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.80, 1.02 and 1.20. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.26 based on a stock price of $25.10. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.13. The current P/B Ratio is 2.48 based on BVPS of $10.14 and a stock price of $25.10. The current P/B Ratio is some 16.2% higher than the 10 years median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but it is above the relative median.
The only dividend yield testing that is practical is the 5 year median dividend yield. This is because this stock used to be an income trust with quite high dividend yield. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.93%. The current dividend yield is 2.71% based on a stock price of $25.10 and Dividends of $0.68. The current dividend yield is some 7.5% lower than the 5 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but it is above the relative median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $29.41. This implies a total return of 19.88% with 2.71% from dividends and 17.17% from capital gains.
This press release on Stock House talks about the company selling a segment of their business. This article on OCTA Finance talks about BMO capital raising their target price. Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool likes this company.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, November 9, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
TransForce Inc. is a North American leader in the transportation and logistics industry operating across Canada and the United States through its subsidiaries. TransForce companies service the following segments: Package and Courier; Less-Than-Truckload; Truckload, which includes specialized truckload and dedicated services; Specialized Services, which includes services to the energy sector, waste management, logistics and ancillary transportation services. Its web site is here TransForce Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price could be reasonable, but above relative median. Stock is a big pricey because it is above the relative median. There is also insider selling. Although you never know why people sell stocks, insiders seem reluctant to hold shares. Of course, insider could just been viewing stocks as part of their salary. See my spreadsheet on TransForce Inc.
I do not own this stock of TransForce Inc. (TSX-TIF, OTC-TFIFF). I read a report called "6 Canadian Dividend Stocks That Fly Under the Radar" by John Heinzl in April of 2013. This is one of the stocks mentioned. There was also a good review of this stock by Advice Hotline by MPL Communications.
There are not a lot of insider holdings. The Alain Bedard, Chairman and CEO, has shares worth around $106.9M and some 4.3% of outstanding shares. I find the number of stock options given is a lot. The stock options for 2014, 2013 and 2012 are 0.37%, 0.50% and 0.60% of outstanding shares. Of the companies I follow, the median stock options given per year are 0.23% and 70% of these companies have less than 0.50% of stock options. So stock options appear to be at the top end and above.
Also, the net insider selling seems high. Over the past year there has been net insider selling of 0.21%. When I look at this last year, net insider selling was 0.08%. For most of the companies I follow, the median Net Insider selling is at around 0.02% and 70% of the companies have net insider selling of less than 0.10%. Insiders seem to be selling off most of the stock options that they get.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share ratios are 9.53, 12.18 and 14.84. The corresponding 10 year values are close at 9.18, 11.49 and 13.79. The historical median P/E Ratio is 10.79. The current P/E Ratio is 14.50. This s based on a stock price of $25.10 and 2015 EPS of $1.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price could be relatively reasonable, but it is above the relative median.
I get a Graham Price of $19.87. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.80, 1.02 and 1.20. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.26 based on a stock price of $25.10. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.13. The current P/B Ratio is 2.48 based on BVPS of $10.14 and a stock price of $25.10. The current P/B Ratio is some 16.2% higher than the 10 years median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but it is above the relative median.
The only dividend yield testing that is practical is the 5 year median dividend yield. This is because this stock used to be an income trust with quite high dividend yield. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.93%. The current dividend yield is 2.71% based on a stock price of $25.10 and Dividends of $0.68. The current dividend yield is some 7.5% lower than the 5 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but it is above the relative median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $29.41. This implies a total return of 19.88% with 2.71% from dividends and 17.17% from capital gains.
This press release on Stock House talks about the company selling a segment of their business. This article on OCTA Finance talks about BMO capital raising their target price. Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool likes this company.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, November 9, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
TransForce Inc. is a North American leader in the transportation and logistics industry operating across Canada and the United States through its subsidiaries. TransForce companies service the following segments: Package and Courier; Less-Than-Truckload; Truckload, which includes specialized truckload and dedicated services; Specialized Services, which includes services to the energy sector, waste management, logistics and ancillary transportation services. Its web site is here TransForce Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, November 9, 2015
TransForce Inc.
On my other blog I am today writing about some of the companies I looked at more closely in by recent monthly update learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Div. growth Co. in transportation, logistics services. This industrial company is doing fine. Debt ratios are not what I like to see. Dividend Payout Ratios are good. See my spreadsheet on TransForce Inc.
I do not own this stock of TransForce Inc. (TSX-TIF, OTC-TFIFF). I read a report called "6 Canadian Dividend Stocks That Fly Under the Radar" by John Heinzl in April of 2013. This is one of the stocks mentioned. There was also a good review of this stock by Advice Hotline by MPL Communications.
Company was an income trust from 2002 to 2008. When it changed to a corporation it dropped monthly distributions for quarterly distributions. Dividends dropped almost 75%. Since 2011 it has been increasing its dividends. The growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 7.7% per year over 5 years and a negative growth of 6.7% per year over the past 10 years.
The dividend yield high occurred in 2008 with the yield over 20%. However, yields have been treading down since then to the current one of 2.71% based on a stock price of $25.10 and dividends of $0.68. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.93%. So currently the dividends are rather low, but the increases are good with the latest increase at 17.2% in 2015.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for 2014 for EPS is 46% and for CFPS is 29%. The 5 year median values are 41% for EPS and 14% for CFPS. The values for 2015 are expected to be similar at 39% for EPS and 19% for CFPS.
Shareholders have done well with this stock, especially over the last 5 years. Total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 18.08% and 8.27% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 3.23% and 4.33% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 14.94% and 3.94% per year. Note that in future dividends the dividend portion of total return will be lower than in the past.
Outstanding shares have increased by 1.4% and 3.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue growth has been good. EPS has been low to good. Cash Flow growth has been non-existent to moderate.
Good Revenue growth is necessary for EPS and Cash Flow Growth. For this company, Revenue growth has been at 15% and 12.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share growth is at13.4% and 8.7% over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth in Revenue of around 15% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is up by 16.5%.
EPS is a little different. It seems that 5 years ago was a bad year and so EPS over the past 5 years is up by some 60% per year. However, if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 years, EPS is just up 1% per year. EPS is up just 0.8% per year over the past 10 years. Here if you look at 5 year running averages EPS is up by 6.9% per year. Analysts expect good growth in EPS for 2015 at 27%. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter EPS is up by 25%.
Cash Flow is up by 1.3% and 5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is down by 0.1% and up by 1.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, CFPS is up by 6.6% and 10.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth in Cash Flows for 2015 at some 21%. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is up by 28%.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% once in the past 5 years. The ROE for 2014 was at 12.4% and the 5 year median is 14.9%. The ROE on comprehensive income was at 12.5% for 2014 and its 5 year median is 14.7%. When these ROEs are close it suggests that the earnings are of good quality.
One thing I do not like about this company is the debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is just 0.83. That means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends, this ratio rises to just 1.16. I like this ratio to be 1.50 for a margin of safety. If you have to muck around to get this ratio to look better, this is not good.
The Debt Ratio for 2014 is 1.43 (and even lower at the third quarter at 1.40). I like this to be at 1.50 for a margin of safety. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 3.34 and 2.34. I would prefer that they be under 2.00 and 1.00, respectively. This is a cautionary note. The problem with bad debt ratios is that they point to the possibility that a company may not do well in bad times. If you are a long term investor this is an important point.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, November 10, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
TransForce Inc. is a North American leader in the transportation and logistics industry operating across Canada and the United States through its subsidiaries. TransForce companies service the following segments: Package and Courier; Less-Than-Truckload; Truckload, which includes specialized truckload and dedicated services; Specialized Services, which includes services to the energy sector, waste management, logistics and ancillary transportation services. Its web site is here TransForce Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Div. growth Co. in transportation, logistics services. This industrial company is doing fine. Debt ratios are not what I like to see. Dividend Payout Ratios are good. See my spreadsheet on TransForce Inc.
I do not own this stock of TransForce Inc. (TSX-TIF, OTC-TFIFF). I read a report called "6 Canadian Dividend Stocks That Fly Under the Radar" by John Heinzl in April of 2013. This is one of the stocks mentioned. There was also a good review of this stock by Advice Hotline by MPL Communications.
Company was an income trust from 2002 to 2008. When it changed to a corporation it dropped monthly distributions for quarterly distributions. Dividends dropped almost 75%. Since 2011 it has been increasing its dividends. The growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 7.7% per year over 5 years and a negative growth of 6.7% per year over the past 10 years.
The dividend yield high occurred in 2008 with the yield over 20%. However, yields have been treading down since then to the current one of 2.71% based on a stock price of $25.10 and dividends of $0.68. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.93%. So currently the dividends are rather low, but the increases are good with the latest increase at 17.2% in 2015.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for 2014 for EPS is 46% and for CFPS is 29%. The 5 year median values are 41% for EPS and 14% for CFPS. The values for 2015 are expected to be similar at 39% for EPS and 19% for CFPS.
Shareholders have done well with this stock, especially over the last 5 years. Total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 18.08% and 8.27% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 3.23% and 4.33% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 14.94% and 3.94% per year. Note that in future dividends the dividend portion of total return will be lower than in the past.
Outstanding shares have increased by 1.4% and 3.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue growth has been good. EPS has been low to good. Cash Flow growth has been non-existent to moderate.
Good Revenue growth is necessary for EPS and Cash Flow Growth. For this company, Revenue growth has been at 15% and 12.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share growth is at13.4% and 8.7% over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth in Revenue of around 15% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is up by 16.5%.
EPS is a little different. It seems that 5 years ago was a bad year and so EPS over the past 5 years is up by some 60% per year. However, if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 years, EPS is just up 1% per year. EPS is up just 0.8% per year over the past 10 years. Here if you look at 5 year running averages EPS is up by 6.9% per year. Analysts expect good growth in EPS for 2015 at 27%. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter EPS is up by 25%.
Cash Flow is up by 1.3% and 5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is down by 0.1% and up by 1.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, CFPS is up by 6.6% and 10.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect good growth in Cash Flows for 2015 at some 21%. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is up by 28%.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% once in the past 5 years. The ROE for 2014 was at 12.4% and the 5 year median is 14.9%. The ROE on comprehensive income was at 12.5% for 2014 and its 5 year median is 14.7%. When these ROEs are close it suggests that the earnings are of good quality.
One thing I do not like about this company is the debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is just 0.83. That means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends, this ratio rises to just 1.16. I like this ratio to be 1.50 for a margin of safety. If you have to muck around to get this ratio to look better, this is not good.
The Debt Ratio for 2014 is 1.43 (and even lower at the third quarter at 1.40). I like this to be at 1.50 for a margin of safety. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 3.34 and 2.34. I would prefer that they be under 2.00 and 1.00, respectively. This is a cautionary note. The problem with bad debt ratios is that they point to the possibility that a company may not do well in bad times. If you are a long term investor this is an important point.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, November 10, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
TransForce Inc. is a North American leader in the transportation and logistics industry operating across Canada and the United States through its subsidiaries. TransForce companies service the following segments: Package and Courier; Less-Than-Truckload; Truckload, which includes specialized truckload and dedicated services; Specialized Services, which includes services to the energy sector, waste management, logistics and ancillary transportation services. Its web site is here TransForce Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, November 6, 2015
Molson Coors Canada
On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and Mark Mills learn more...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is reasonable to expensive. The only test that shows that this stock might be priced reasonably is the historical median dividend yield test in US$. The problem for Canadians if they buy into this stock via the TSX is that only 9% of the outstanding shares are traded on the TSX. See my spreadsheet on Molson Coors Canada.
I do not own this stock of Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP). In 2008 I did a spreadsheet on this stock as it has recently been recommended and generally, beer companies make good money. Labatt's was one of the original companies that I purchased and I did very well with it before it was bought out.
Ever since Molson was bought out in 2005, the dividends have been paid in US$. The problem with dividends paid in US$ is that you never really know how much in dividends you are going to receive in any given year. Currently because of the weak CDN$, dividends are rising for Canadian Shareholders. So, although dividends are rising in US$ each year, it does not mean that they will rise in CDN$ each year.
The dividends have grown in US$ by 10% and 13.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The dividends have grown in CDN$ by 12.3% and 8.24% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The current dividend yield is 1.86%. So dividends are low and the dividend increases are moderate.
Canadian investors in this stock have done well over the past 5 and 10 years. The Total Return that I get is 20.14% and 13.63% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is 2.17% and 1.83% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is 17.96% and 11.80% per year. The capital gains I calculated is correct, but I do not have the exact exchange rate used for each dividend, so the dividend portion of this calculation probably would not be exactly correct, but it is probably reasonable.
There are two types of shares, Class A that is voting and Class B that is non-voting. Both classes of shares are sold on the exchanges. On the NYSE you have TAP.A and TAP shares and on the TSX you have TPX.A and TPX.B shares. The common shares to buy on the TSX are the TPX.B shares and they make up just over 9% of the outstanding shares. Outstanding shares have increase by 1% and 7.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 10 year increase is mainly because of the almost 87% increase in shares for the purchase of Molson.
All growth is in US$ as this company is reporting in US$. Revenue growth is non-existent to moderate. Earnings growth is non-existent to low. Cash Flow growth is low to good.
Revenue is up by 6.5% and down by 0.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share is up by 5.4% and down by 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue to decline around 13% in 2015.
EPS is down by 6.5% and up by 0.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect EPS to grow by 23% in 2015. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2015 to the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, EPS is down by 4.2%.
Cash Flow is up by 3.5% and 9.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 2.5% and 0% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to decrease this year by 38%.
Return on Equity has been below 10% every year of the past 5 years. The ROE for 2015 is 6.5% and the 5 year median is 6.6%. The comprehensive income is negative in 2015. This is not a good sign and suggests caution.
The debt ratio that I do not like is the Liquidity Ratio and it is 0.68 in 2015. If you add in dividends after cash flow it becomes 1.10. This is still low and under the 1.50 I like.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.59, 15.40 and 18.21. The corresponding 10 year values are higher at 15.32, 16.94 and 18.55. The historical median P/E Ratio is 12.59 which is closes to the 5 year values. The current P/E Ratio is 25.91 based on a stock price of $115.24 CDN$ and 2015 EPS estimate of $4.45 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $70.13 CDN$. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 0.87 and 0.98. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.64 based on a stock price of $115.24 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 2.34 based on BVPS of $49.15 CDN$ and a stock price of $115.24 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is some 105% higher than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.64%. The current dividend yield is 1.86% based on dividends of $2.15 CDN$ ($1.64 US$) and a stock price of $115.24 CDN$. The historical median dividend yield is 2.32%. These yields are 29% and 20% higher than the current yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
A cursory glance at my spreadsheet shows that the only stock price test that is better in US$ is the one for the historical median dividend yield. In US$ the historical median dividend yield is just 1.88% and this is quite close to the current dividend yield of 1.86%. In this test the stock price would be relatively reasonable.
Note that the dividend yield is the same in both currencies as most ratio also. I am also following the US$ from Coors into Molson Coors and the CDN$ from Molson in Molson Coors. The buyout of Molson occurred in 2005, just 10 years ago.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The 12 months consensus stock price is $104.00 US$. This implies a total return of 19.91% with 1.86% from dividends and 18.05% from capital gains.
This article in the Denver Post talks about third quarter profit for this company despite lagging sales. This article in the Vancouver Sun talks about an iconic Molson brewery in downtown Vancouver closing, but the company will build a plant elsewhere in B. C. This article in the Toronto Star discusses how a merger of Anheuser Busch InBev and SABMiller could benefit Molson Coors.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Molson Coors Brewing Company is a leading global brewer delivering extraordinary brands that delight the world's beer drinkers. It brews, markets and sells a portfolio of leading premium brands such as Coors Light, Molson Canadian, Carling, Blue Moon, and Keystone Light across North America, Europe and Asia. It operates in Canada through Molson Coors Canada; in the US through Miller Coors; and in the U.K. and Ireland through Molson Coors UK. Its web site is here Molson Coors Canada .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is reasonable to expensive. The only test that shows that this stock might be priced reasonably is the historical median dividend yield test in US$. The problem for Canadians if they buy into this stock via the TSX is that only 9% of the outstanding shares are traded on the TSX. See my spreadsheet on Molson Coors Canada.
I do not own this stock of Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP). In 2008 I did a spreadsheet on this stock as it has recently been recommended and generally, beer companies make good money. Labatt's was one of the original companies that I purchased and I did very well with it before it was bought out.
Ever since Molson was bought out in 2005, the dividends have been paid in US$. The problem with dividends paid in US$ is that you never really know how much in dividends you are going to receive in any given year. Currently because of the weak CDN$, dividends are rising for Canadian Shareholders. So, although dividends are rising in US$ each year, it does not mean that they will rise in CDN$ each year.
The dividends have grown in US$ by 10% and 13.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The dividends have grown in CDN$ by 12.3% and 8.24% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The current dividend yield is 1.86%. So dividends are low and the dividend increases are moderate.
Canadian investors in this stock have done well over the past 5 and 10 years. The Total Return that I get is 20.14% and 13.63% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is 2.17% and 1.83% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is 17.96% and 11.80% per year. The capital gains I calculated is correct, but I do not have the exact exchange rate used for each dividend, so the dividend portion of this calculation probably would not be exactly correct, but it is probably reasonable.
There are two types of shares, Class A that is voting and Class B that is non-voting. Both classes of shares are sold on the exchanges. On the NYSE you have TAP.A and TAP shares and on the TSX you have TPX.A and TPX.B shares. The common shares to buy on the TSX are the TPX.B shares and they make up just over 9% of the outstanding shares. Outstanding shares have increase by 1% and 7.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 10 year increase is mainly because of the almost 87% increase in shares for the purchase of Molson.
All growth is in US$ as this company is reporting in US$. Revenue growth is non-existent to moderate. Earnings growth is non-existent to low. Cash Flow growth is low to good.
Revenue is up by 6.5% and down by 0.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share is up by 5.4% and down by 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue to decline around 13% in 2015.
EPS is down by 6.5% and up by 0.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect EPS to grow by 23% in 2015. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2015 to the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter, EPS is down by 4.2%.
Cash Flow is up by 3.5% and 9.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 2.5% and 0% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Cash Flow to decrease this year by 38%.
Return on Equity has been below 10% every year of the past 5 years. The ROE for 2015 is 6.5% and the 5 year median is 6.6%. The comprehensive income is negative in 2015. This is not a good sign and suggests caution.
The debt ratio that I do not like is the Liquidity Ratio and it is 0.68 in 2015. If you add in dividends after cash flow it becomes 1.10. This is still low and under the 1.50 I like.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.59, 15.40 and 18.21. The corresponding 10 year values are higher at 15.32, 16.94 and 18.55. The historical median P/E Ratio is 12.59 which is closes to the 5 year values. The current P/E Ratio is 25.91 based on a stock price of $115.24 CDN$ and 2015 EPS estimate of $4.45 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $70.13 CDN$. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 0.87 and 0.98. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.64 based on a stock price of $115.24 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 2.34 based on BVPS of $49.15 CDN$ and a stock price of $115.24 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is some 105% higher than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.64%. The current dividend yield is 1.86% based on dividends of $2.15 CDN$ ($1.64 US$) and a stock price of $115.24 CDN$. The historical median dividend yield is 2.32%. These yields are 29% and 20% higher than the current yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
A cursory glance at my spreadsheet shows that the only stock price test that is better in US$ is the one for the historical median dividend yield. In US$ the historical median dividend yield is just 1.88% and this is quite close to the current dividend yield of 1.86%. In this test the stock price would be relatively reasonable.
Note that the dividend yield is the same in both currencies as most ratio also. I am also following the US$ from Coors into Molson Coors and the CDN$ from Molson in Molson Coors. The buyout of Molson occurred in 2005, just 10 years ago.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The 12 months consensus stock price is $104.00 US$. This implies a total return of 19.91% with 1.86% from dividends and 18.05% from capital gains.
This article in the Denver Post talks about third quarter profit for this company despite lagging sales. This article in the Vancouver Sun talks about an iconic Molson brewery in downtown Vancouver closing, but the company will build a plant elsewhere in B. C. This article in the Toronto Star discusses how a merger of Anheuser Busch InBev and SABMiller could benefit Molson Coors.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Molson Coors Brewing Company is a leading global brewer delivering extraordinary brands that delight the world's beer drinkers. It brews, markets and sells a portfolio of leading premium brands such as Coors Light, Molson Canadian, Carling, Blue Moon, and Keystone Light across North America, Europe and Asia. It operates in Canada through Molson Coors Canada; in the US through Miller Coors; and in the U.K. and Ireland through Molson Coors UK. Its web site is here Molson Coors Canada .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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