BlackBerry Ltd.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap and risky. I would not be currently interested in this tech stocks. Often once a tech stock becomes a has-been, they seldom recover. I wish the company well because I always like it and it is great to see good Canadian tech stocks. See my spreadsheet at bb.htm.

I do not own this stock of BlackBerry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY), but I used to. I bought this stock for capital gain. I first bought it in 1999 and then some more in 2000. I sold some in 2006 and 2007 to lock in some profit. I sold the rest of my stock in 2010.

Two positive things to say about this stock is that it still has a cash flow and they it has a lot of cash on hand. Cash is equal to 28% of the stock price in CDN$ and US$.

I made money on this stock, but I bought it in 1999 when it was doing good tech. I made some 20% per year total return. I know that I generally buy dividend paying stock, but I do like tech stocks and I bought this stock just for capital gains.

This stock peaked in around 2011. If you look at growth, it is good for the last 10 years, but there has been no growth over the past 5 years. The company is reporting on US$, so I will use this currency. Revenue is down by 25.9% over the past 5 years and up by 9.5% over the past 10 years. Analysts see only a further decline in Revenue. If you compare the 12 months to the end of the financial years of February 2015 to the 12 months to the end of the first quarter of 2016, Revenue is down by 9%.

This is repeated in cash flows where CFPS is down by 24.3% and up by 19.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you compare the 12 months to the end of the financial years of February 2015 to the 12 months to the end of the first quarter of 2016, Cash Flow is down by 20%.

For EPS, there have been no positive values for the last 3 years. In total EPS is down by 113% and 259% over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts do not see any positive earnings for this stock over the new few years. If you compare the 12 months to the end of the financial years of February 2015 to the 12 months to the end of the first quarter of 2016, EPS is up by 46%. However, this just points to lower losses, not any positive earnings.

The debt ratios are very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 3.06, the Debt Ratio is 2.10 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.91 and 0.91 for the financial year ending in February 2015.

The 10 year P/S Ratio is 1.97 and the current P/S Ratio is 1.15 a values some 41% lower. This current P/S Ratio is based on 2016 Revenue of $3512M US$ and a stock price of $7.66 US$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, Revenue is declining.

If you look at what analysts suggest for 2017, Revenue of $1809M and the ratio becomes 2.24. On the other hand analyst's estimates can be very wrong for the current year, let alone for future years. If you use the Revenue for the 12 months to the current quarter, the P/S Ratio is 1.34 and this is 32% lower than the 10 year P/S Ratio.

I get a 10 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.74. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.78 a values some 22% lower. This current ratio is based on a stock price of $7.66 US$ and cash flow estimate of $598M US$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.29. The current P/B Ratio is 1.16 based on BVPS of $8.68 CDN$ and a stock price of $10.03 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The 12 month stock price consensus is $8.75 US$. This implies a total return of 14.23% all from capital gain.

This article in Business Insider talks about Blackberry developing an android phone. This article inRecombu documents this company's rise and fall. This article in CanTech talks about how Blackberry will work when it does not make phones.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

BlackBerry Ltd. develops hardware and software solutions for mobile communications. It provides platforms and solutions, which support multiple wireless network standards through the development of integrated hardware and software services. Its web site is here Blackberry.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.